§ Mr. Gordon Brownasked the Secretary of State for Social Services if he will list, by reference to the changing demographic composition of the population, the figures on which he bases his calculation that a 0.7 per cent. increase per annum in National Health Service expenditure is necessary to keep pace with demographic changes.
§ Mr. Kenneth ClarkeWe estimate the increased demands upon the NHS of population structure change by applying to forecasts of the population the most recently available estimates of per capita expenditure on the various services by age group. The most recent forecasts of population are those published provisionally and in summary form by the OPCS in its monitor PP3 83/1. The most recent estimates of per capita expenditure by age group were given in my hon. Friend's reply to my hon. Friend, the Member for Stirling (Mr. Forsyth) on 17 November 1983. — [Vol. 48, c.568–70.] Our latest estimates of the demand implications of population structure change for the hospital and community health services were given in my reply to the hon. Member for Crewe and Nantwich (Mrs. Dunwoody) on 28 October 1983.— [Vol. 47, c. 240.] I emphasis that we do not accept that the only way in which the Service can keep pace with increasing demand is by increasing spending by exactly the same proportion. Better management and increased efficiency and cost-effectiveness in the use of increasing resources are essential to keep pace with demand and to make further improvements in service.
§ Mr. Gordon Brownasked the Secretary of State for Social Services (1) if he will list, by reference to the changing capital and revenue expenditure on new equipment for the National Health Service, the figures on which he bases his calculation that a 0.5 per cent. increase per annum in National Health Service expenditure is necessary to keep pace with technological change in requirements for medical equipment;
(2) whether, in the light of known demographic trends and technological changes, he will estimate, for each year up to 1987–88, the specific additional amounts in money and as a percentage of the National Health Service budget, that are required to keep pace with (a) demographic changes, and (b) technological changes in requirements for medical equipment.
§ Mr. Kenneth ClarkeOn the increased demographic demand on hospital and community health current services, I refer the hon. Member to my reply to the hon. Member for Crewe and Nantwich (Mrs. Dunwoody) on 28 October 1983.—[Vol. 47, c.240.] There is no precise estimate of the extra demand on hospital services as a result of medical advance, but for planning purposes the Department has tended to assume a net allowance of about ½ per cent. a year. Further information on demography and medical advance is contained in chapter 2 of "Health Care 142W and its Costs", a copy of which is available in the Library. I do not accept the implication of the question that the only way in which the service can keep pace with increasing demand is by increasing spending in exactly the same proportion.
§ Mr. Gordon Brownasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what he estimates to be the current cost to the National Health Service for 1983–84, and for 1987–88, for all medical services provided for (a) retirement pensioners, (b) pensioners over 80 years of age, (c) pensioners over 85 years of age, (d) antenatal and postnatal care and (e) services for the under-fives, excluding postnatal care.
§ Mr. Kenneth ClarkeInformation is not available in exactly the form requested. The Department makes estimates of hospital and community health services and general medical services, expenditure by broad age groups. The estimated breakdown of the net hospital and community health services expenditure and the general medical services expenditure for 1981–82, the latest available year, is:
1981–82 (£ million cash, to the nearest £10 million) Net HCHS expenditure GMS expenditure Births (antenatal, maternity and some postnatal care) 540 40 Children aged 0–4 (including some postnatal care) 420 60 Persons aged 65–74 1,400 90 Persons aged 75 and over 2,110 110
§ Mr. Gordon Brownasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what is the estimated cost to the Health Service in both capital and revenue expenditure of each computerised axial tomography scanner; and how many are now operational in hospitals.
§ Mr. John PattenThe capital cost of a computerised axial tomography scanner is between £275,000 and £550,000; annual running costs are approximately £70,000 to £90,000. Scanning facilities are available in about 90 centres in the NHS in England and Wales.