§ 17. Mr. Winnickasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer when he now expects to see a substantial improvement in the economy.
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§ Sir Geoffrey HoweThe latest industrial production figures show that in the three months to May the underlying level of output was about 3 per cent. higher than at the low point in the second quarter of 1981.
§ 19. Mr. Cyril D. Townsendasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he has had any recent discussions with the Confederation of British Industry about economic recovery.
§ Sir Geoffrey HoweMy Treasury colleagues and I have had several such discussions with representatives of the CBI in recent weeks. The most recent, at last week's meeting of NEDC, was attended by my right hon. and learned Friend the Chief Secretary.
§ 31. Mr. Knoxasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether there have been any further signs that the economy is recovering from the recession.
§ Sir Geoffrey HoweYes. Most outside forecasts and the CSO's index of leading cyclical indicators point to continuing, though uneven, recovery. The downward trend in inflation and lower interest rates are encouraging pointers to the future, as are the forecasts of a gradual recovery in the world economy in the second half of this year and in 1983.
§ 34. Mr. Parkasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what prospects he now sees for a recovery in the economy.
§ Sir Geoffrey HoweThe Budget-time forecast and most independent assessments expect continued, though gradual, recovery during the course of 1982 and in 1983 as the world economy begins to move out of recession, and we continue to benefit from a falling rate of inflation and substantial productivity gains.
§ 37. Mr. Foulkesasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer when he now expects a substantial upturn in the economy.
§ Sir Geoffrey HoweI refer the hon. Member to the reply given earlier today to the hon. Member for Walsall, North (Mr. Winnick).
§ Mr. Lathamasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he is satisfied that industrial recovery has been maintained, following the Budget, in the months of June and July; and what statistical information is coming to him from the latest lead indicators.
§ Mr. Brittan[pursuant to his reply, 13 July 1982, c. 353.]: Figures for industrial production up to May, the latest available, show that industrial output rose by 1½ per cent. in the latest three months compared to the previous three months.
The proposect remains for continuing gradual recovery. The CSO's latest indices of leading—published on 18 June—which had earlier pointed to some hesitation in activity, have for some months been pointing to continuing recovery. Almost all independent forecasts agree with the assessment in the Budget that there will be renewed growth through the rest of this year and next.