§ Mr. Marlowasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what is the estimated New Commonwealth and Pakistani origin population of the United Kingdom; what is the likely New Commonwealth and Pakistani origin, including second generation immigrant, population of the United Kingdom in 1990; what is the level of increase; and how much will arise from net immigration and how much from expansion by birth.
Sir George Young: At mid-1978 the population of New Commonwealth and Pakistani (NCWP) ethnic origin in Great Britain is estimated to have been something over 1.9 million, including the children of parents of NCWP ethnic origin who were themselves born here and persons partly of NCWP ancestry.
Recently published projections indicate that, starting from a figure of some1¾ million in 1976, the population with some degree of NCWP ancestry would rise by 1991 to a broad magnitude of 2¾ million people on a combination of lower assumptions about future fertility and net migration, and to a broad magnitude of 3¼ million people on higher assumptions about fertility and migration. The increase over the 15-year period would be 50 per cent. on the lower assumptions 355W (of which 20 per cent. would be accounted for by future net migration and 30 per cent. by future natural increase—the excess of births over deaths); and would be 80 per cent. on the higher assumptions (of which 30 per cent. would be accounted for by migration and 50 per cent. by natural increase).
Further details of the projections and a discussion of the assumptions on which they are based are given in an article in "Population Trends 16", a copy of which I am sending to my hon. Friend.