§ Mr. Peter Bottomleyasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to his answer to the hon. Member for Woolwich, West—[Official Report, 28th February 1978, column 180]—that it has been the practice of this Government not to publish numerical forecasts of unemployment, and in the light of the fact that the former Secretary of State for Employment estimated that unemployment
will be something under 12 million, seasonally adjusted, at the end of the year"—[Official Report, 28th October 1975, column 1271],and the Chancellor of the Exchequer estimated that unemploymentcould be touching a million or 4 per cent. by the end of the year"—[Official Report, 15th April 1975, column 320],if he will now review his practice and if he will make a statement.
§ Mr. Joel BarnettThe estimate of unemployment given by the former Secretary of State for Employment was based on the assumption of a continuation of present trends. He said
If present trends persist the calculation is that unemployment will be something under 1.2 million…"—[Official Report, 28th October 1975; Vol. 898, column 1267.]The estimate given by the Chancellor was also no more than an indication of a possible outcome and had been prefaced by the remark thathon. Members know that it is particularly difficult to forecast the unemployment figures .. (so) with all necessary caution, I predict that…unemployment will continue to rise for the remainder of the year."—[Official Report, 15th April 1975; Vol. 890, column 320.]These statements are not inconsistent with the general practice of not publishing precise and detailed forecasts of employment and unemployment.