§ Mr. Tim Rentonasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer how many additional jobs in United Kingdom industry will be created in 1978–79 if the United Kingdom increases its present share of world trade by (a) ½ per cent., (b) 1 per cent., (c) 1½ per cent. and (d) 2 per cent.
§ Mr. Joel Barnett, pursuant to the reply [Official Report, 4th April 1978; Vol. 947, c. 117], gave the following information:
Estimates of the effect of improved export performance on employment depend upon a number of assumptions and are subject to wide margins of error.
262Wavailable that can be re-scaled to 1973=100 is shown in the table below.
On the assumptions that earnings, the exchange rate and interest rates are unchanged and that the current relationship between changes in output and employment continues to hold, a 1 per cent. increase in the volume of exported manufactures in the financial year 1978–79, which would increase the United Kingdom share of world trade in manufactures by nearly one-tenth of a percentage point, could lead to an increase in total employment of up to 15,000 in that year. Within reasonable limits, these estimates can be pro-rated.