§ Mr. Rookerasked the Secretary of State for Employment what are his latest estimates of the increase in working population for each of the next six years, giving separate figures for males and females.
§ Mr. Golding:Following are the expected increases in the labour force (Great Britain, aged 16 and over, and excluding students).
Thousands Males Females Total Mid–1977 to mid–1978 +40 +153 +193 Mid–1978 to mid–1979 +58 +118 +176 Mid–1979 to mid–1980 +58 +101 +159 Mid–1980 to mid–1981 +77 +76 +153 Mid–1981 to mid–1982 +105 +137 +242 Mid–1982 to mid–1983 +117 +147 +264 The figures above are based on the methods and assumptions described in the article on projections of the labour force published in the Department of Employment Gazette, June 1977.
The figures are for the "labour force" which is slightly larger than the "working population" (the latter is defined to cover employees in employment, employers, the self-employed, HM Forces and the registered unemployed) and includes those unemployed and seeking work, but not registered at an employment office, and those temporarily prevented from seeking work through sickness.
The methods used for the projections are intended to provide a broad indication of trends, and year on year changes may deviate substantially from underlying trends. The estimates are based on assumptions about changes in the population, the activity rates (i.e. the proportion of the population of working age 883W at work or seeking work), and the number of students; all these are subject to uncertainty, in particular perhaps those relating to the activity rate of married women.