§ Mr. Wyn Robertsasked the Secretary of State for Trade if he has made any estimate of the effect of the upward revaluation of the £ sterling on the volume and value of exports to date.
§ Mr. Leeasked the Secretary of State for Trade (1) what is the estimated effect, adverse or favourable, of the revaluation of the £ sterling consequent upon the recent change in Bank of England policy on United Kingdom imports of the 12 most valuable categories of imported goods; by what percentage such imports are expected to increase or decrease during the next 12 months; and if he will make a statement;
(2) what is the estimated effect, adverse or favourable of the revaluation of the £ sterling consequent upon the recent change in Bank of England policy, on United Kingdom exports in the 12 most important countries buying United Kingdom goods; by what percentage such exports are expected to increase or decrease during the next 12 months; and if he will make a statement.
§ Mr. MeacherAny estimate of the effect of the upward movement on exports and imports must, at this stage, be uncertain. Further, it would be extremely hazardous to attempt to make forecasts for individual categories of trade, or for our trade with individual countries. Broadly, changes in the value and volume of total exports consequent on an appreciation of sterling will depend much on exporters' pricing policies which, in turn, will be governed largely by the extent to which price is a determinant of sales. For total imports, an expected initial fall in price should lead to a lower value of 153W imports; subsequently, however, import volume and hence value, will rise.