HC Deb 09 May 1977 vol 931 c399W
Mr. Gould

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he will publish

Exports* of Goods and Services Actual Forecast Imports* of Goods and Services
Actual Forecast Actual Forecast
Date of Forecast Period of Forecast Percentage changes on a year earlier
1973 March 1973 I … 9.1 5.9 12.2 8.8
… … … 1973 II … 14.6 8.6 14.3 7.2
1974 I … 9.9 5.1 4.1 6.1
1974 March … … … 1974 I … 9.9 1.0 4.1 20
1974 II … 4.4 4.5 −2.8 3.5
1974 November … … … 1974 II … 4.4 5.0 −2.8 −1.5
1975 I … −2.8 4.5 −7.5 3.5
1975 April … … … 1975 I … −2.8 0.0 −7.5 −4.0
1975 II … −4.8 1.0 −5.2 −1.0
1976 I … 3.6 5.0 4.2 4.5
1976 April … … … 1976 I … 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.0
1976 II … 9.2 9.5 7.5 6.5
*At constant prices.

Mr. Gould

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his working assumption of income elasticity of demand for United Kingdom manufactured exports.

Mr. Denzil Davies

Research in the Treasury and Department of Trade into the determinates of United Kingdom manufactured exports has had difficulty in discriminating clearly between (i) a low world trade elasticity—of about 0.6—and (ii) a higher world trade elasticity—of about one—combined with a loss of share due to factors unrelated to world activity. The Treasury model currently employs the second approach, but the implications of both methods are studied in any forecast. Estimates of elasticities with respect to income are not directly available, since the relationship between world trade and income is subject to wide variation.