HC Deb 27 July 1977 vol 936 cc271-2W
Mr. Gould

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what were the terms of trade for manufacturers in each quarter of the years 1967 to 1969, and from the beginning of 1974 to date; and if he will make a statement on the curent competitiveness of British manufactures in the light of these figures.

Mr. Robert Sheldon

The information requested is as follows:

Terms of Trade (manufactures) 1970=100
1967
Q1 … … … 105.7
2 … … … 107.7
3 … … … 107.6
4 … … … 102.3
1968
Q1 … … … 97.1
2 … … … 98.7
3 … … … 99.5
4 … … … 99.5
1969
Q1 … … … 99.7
2 … … … 97.5
3 … … … 96.2
4 … … … 93.6
1974
Q1 … … … 91.4
2 … … … 91.5
3 … … … 93.5
4 … … … 95.7
1975
Q1 … … … 97.7
2 … … … 99.8
3 … … … 101.3
4 … … … 101.9
1976
Q1 … … … 103.8
2 … … … 100.7
3 … … … 100.4
4 … … … 99.1
1977
Q1 … … … 102.8
2 … … … 101.8

A terms of trade index is not a measure of competitiveness, since the goods whose relative price is measured in a terms of trade index are not competing on the same market.

Mr. Gould

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is the correlation between changes in the terms of trade and changes in the relative volume of trade for the different groups of manufactures; and what is the estimated time lag for the correlation.

Mr. Robert Sheldon

The estimates asked for cannot be produced using the present Treasury forecasting methodology.