§ Mr. Gould
asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer by what amount he estimates the volume of exports would have had to grow since 1st January 1973 to offset the change in terms of trade (a) including and (b) excluding the devaluation of sterling since that date; and by what amount the volume of exports has actually grown over that period.
§ Mr. Robert Sheldon
The answer to the first part of the question is, possibly around 30 per cent. including the effects of devaluation, though the result is sensitive to the way the calculation is done. The relationship between exchange rate movements and the terms of trade is complex, and there is no reliable way of disentangling the effects of devaluation. The actual growth of export volumes from the 1st quarter of 1973 to the 3rd quarter of 1976 was 13.5 per cent.