§ Mr. Maurice Macmillanasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what is the estimated birth rate, death rate and net reproduction rate for the United Kingdom in each year after 1975 until the end of the century.
§ Mr. MeacherThe birth and death rates per 1,000 of the population of the United Kingdom on the basis of the latest central projections made by the Government Actuary are as follows:
Year Birth Rate Death Rate 1976 … … … 12.5 12.2 1977 … … … 12.6 12.2 1978 … … … 13.0 12.3 1979 … … … 13.6 12.4 1980 … … … 14.3 12.4 1981 … … … 15.2 12.5 1982 … … … 15.8 12.5 1983 … … … 16.1 12.5 1984 … … … 16.4 12.5 1985 … … … 16.5 12.5 1986 … … … 16.6 12.5 1987 … … … 16.7 12.5 1988 … … … 16.8 12.5 1989 … … … 16.8 12.4 1990 … … … 16.8 12.4 1991 … … … 16.6 12.3 1992 … … … 16.4 12.3 1993 … … … 16.2 12.2 1994 … … … 15.9 12.2 1995 … … … 15.6 12.1 1996 … … … 15.3 12.0 1997 … … … 15.0 11.9 1998 … … … 14.7 11.9 1999 … … … 14.5 11.8 2000 … … … 14.3 11.8 Crude birth and death rates are affected by changes in the age-structure of the population. Full details of the assumptions made in the latest projections will be published in Population Projections 1974–2014.
Precise figures for the net reproduction rates for each year are not readily available as the projections assumptions are not made in this form, but the assumptions imply a fall to about 0.85 in the next two years, followed by an increase to about 1 .05 from the mid-1980s onwards.
§ Mr. Maurice Macmillanasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what is the net reproduction rate calculated in terms of females reaching child bearing age per 1,000 population for each year from 1946.
§ Mr. MeacherThe available information relates to Great Britain, as follows:
322W
Year Net Reproduction Rate* 1946 … … … 1.12 1947 … … … 1.22 1948 … … … 1.10 1949 … … … 1.05
Year Net Reproduction Rate* 1950 1.02 1951 1.01 1952 1.02 1953 1.04 1954 1.04 1955 105 1956 1.12 1957 1.16 1958 1.19 1959 1.20 1960 1.26 1961 1.30 1962 1.34 1963 1.36 1964 1.38 1965 1.35 1966 1.31 1967 1.26 1968 1.23 1969 1.18 1970 1.15 1971 1.13 1972 1.04 1973 0.96 1974 0.90 1975 (provisional) 0.84 *The net reproduction rate indicates the average number of daughters that would be born live to a group of newly born girls if up to the end of their child-bearing period they were subjected to the age-specific fertility and mortality rates of the year for which the rate is calculated.