§ Mr. Spearingasked the Secretary of State for Education and Science if she will set out in the OFFICIAL REPORT a table showing the expected maximum and minimum entrants to and leavers from the teaching profession for each of the years 1974–75 to 1980–81 showing separately the maximum and minimum numbers in respect of: retirements and death, wastage, returners, entrants from colleges of education, entrants from university, and any other significant categories.
§ Mr. St. John-StevasThe following table gives broad projections of the factors governing the prospective growth, on White Paper policies, of the teaching force. These have now been revised in the light of the latest information about the trend of teacher wastage. It is not practicable within a parliamentary answer to provide the more detailed information for which the hon. Member asks. Some of it in any case, for example that relating to numbers of entrants from different types of training, depends on policy decisions not yet taken, on which my right hon. Friend hopes to seek the early advice of the proposed advisory committee.
schools in England and Wales who will be over the statutory school leaving age for each of the years 1973–74 to 1980–81, together with the basis of her projections.
§ Mr. St. John-StevasFollowing are the projected numbers of pupils in maintained secondary schools in England and Wales 39W who will be over the statutory school leaving age in the years listed:
At 1st January Estimated numbers in thousands 1974 … … … 286.4 1975 … … … 315.1 1976 … … … 342.8 1977 … … … 371.8 1978 … … … 403.5 1979 … … … 435.0 1980 … … … 465.0 1981 … … … 494.9 These figures represent the Department's best reckoning on the information available; no maximum or minimum estimates have been made.
The basis of the projection is the forward extrapolation, using standard statistical techniques, of past trends in numbers staying on at school, separately by age and sex.