§ Mr. Tom Boardmanasked the Secretary of State for the Home Department what is his estimate of the proportion of new Commonwealth immigrants in the City of Leicester in the years 1980, 1985 and 1990, respectively, if the percentage of new Commonwealth children in its primary and secondary schools continues to increase from 12.6 per cent. as at 1st January, 1970, at the same rate as over the preceding 12 months.
§ Sir K. JosephI have been asked to reply.
Projections of the future proportion of the population of New Commonwealth ethnic origin in particular local authority areas cannot be based merely on hypothetical assumptions involving extrapolations from the present percentage of New Commonwealth children in its primary and secondary schools. By 1990 this would of course only cover an age range from about 35 (which the present 15-year-old school-children will have reached) down to 5. Basic information about the sex and age-groups of the New Commonwealth sector and the rest of the present population of Leicester will be given by the 1971 Census of Population. Even then the projection asked for would involve further hypothetical assumptions both implicit and explicit about the future pattern of migration and births not only for the New Commonwealth sector but also for the rest of the population of Leicester. Hypothetical estimates of the kind asked for cannot be regarded as realistic and I do not think it useful to attempt them.