Sitting of 24 November 1983

Preamble
The House met at half-past Two o'clock
PRAYERS
[MR. SPEAKER in the Chair]
PRAYERS
  PRIVATE BUSINESS AFTER PRAYERS

    BRITISH RAILWAYS BILL (By Order)
    Order for consideration, as amended, read.
    To be considered upon Wednesday 30 November at Seven o'clock.

    NOTTINGHAMSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL BILL [Lords] (By Order)
    Order for consideration, as amended, read.
    To be considered upon Thursday 1 December.

    DARTFORD TUNNEL BILL [Lords] (By Order)
    Orders for Second Reading read.
    To be read a Second time upon Thursday 1 December.

Oral Answers to Questions
  NATIONAL FINANCE

    Fees and Subscriptions (Tax Allowance)
    Mr. Sternasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if the Inland Revenue will publish a list of bodies approved under section 192 of the Income and Corporation Taxes Act 1970 for the purpose of deduction from income of fees, contributions or annual subscriptions paid to such bodies.
    The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Mr. Peter Rees): I understand that the Inland Revenue is considering how soon such a list can be published, and I hope that this will be in the not-too-distant future.
    Mr. Stern: Will my right hon. and learned Friend recommend to the Inland Revenue that it should expedite that policy, as under the present system the taxpayer has no protection against Inland Revenue error and has no way of being certain of how to calculate his tax bill?
    Mr. Rees: I well understand my hon. Friend's concern, which is shared by the Institute of Chartered Accountants. It is in deference to his and its views, and because of the
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    wider principles involved, that publication will be authorised. My hon. Friend will understand that. as it will be a considerable document of about 80 pages, the administration implications are not as small as he and the House might imagine.

    Cross Channel Ferries (Duty-free Goods)
    Mr. Aitkenasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what steps he is taking to safeguard the future of duty-free sales on cross-Channel ferries in the light of cases pending before the European Court of Justice; and if he will make a statement.
    The Minister of State, Treasury (Mr. Barney Hayhoe): The Government believe that VAT and excise duty-free sales for intra-Community travellers should be retained. The European Court has been left in no doubt about our views, and we shall also be pressing for the early adoption of the Commission proposal to put these safes on a firmer legal basis.
    Mr. Aitken: While thanking my hon. Friend for that reply, may I ask whether he is aware that any EC ban on duty-free sales, or even a reduction in duty-free allowances of the sort proposed in the Commission's seventh draft directive, could result in a serious loss of revenue for British shipping companies, airlines and the British Airports Authority? Is he further aware that such a loss of revenue could, sooner or later, result in higher fares for passengers and higher costs at ports and airports? Will he vigorously defend the present duty-free arrangements?
    Mr. Hayhoe: We recognise the points properly made by my hon. Friend. That is why we are determined that duty-free sales should continue.
    Mr. Robert Atkins: Will my hon. Friend consider making available at the places where duty-free goods are sold information showing exactly what duty is not being charged, so that a prospective purchaser will know exactly what he is saving?
    Mr. Hayhoe: That must be a matter for those concerned at the various sale points. It is true that the prices charged are well above a price that would be determined merely by reducing the usual price by the element of tax and duty.

    Economic Recovery
    Mr. Beaumont-Darkasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what contribution domestic demand has made to economic recovery since the first half of 1981.
    The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. Nigel Lawson): Over the two years from the first half of 1981 to the first half of 1983, the economy has grown by 5 per cent. With world trade declining over this period, that has been entirely due to a sharp recovery in domestic demand.
    Mr. Beaumont-Dark: Does my right hon. Friend accept that everyone will welcome that growth in domestic demand? Does he agree that, to keep that domestic demand fuelled, we need lower taxation? Will not any talk of increased taxation act like frost on tender plants and kill off the vitally needed growth in the economy?
    Mr. Lawson: Most of all we need a sound fiscal and monetary policy that will lead to downward pressure on

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    interest rates and continued low, and if possible lower, inflation. Low inflation has produced the recovery to date. The Government are, of course, determined to reduce taxation during the lifetime of this Parliament.
    Mr. Wainwright: Is the Chancellor aware that the current domestic demand in relation to the capital goods and civil engineering industries is so dangerously low that it threatens the survival of many skilled and experienced teams of workers and management? Will he at last enable public assets to be maintained and repaired by those skilled industries?
    Mr. Lawson: The hon. Gentleman is right, in that fortunes fluctuate considerably from industry to industry and from company to company. He may be interested to know that, in the period that I mentioned a moment ago, when total growth was 5 per cent. fixed investment rose by 7 per cent., and that for 1984 we expect an increase in fixed investment of 4 per cent. compared with a growth in the economy as a whole of 3 per cent.
    Mr. Michael Brown: Will my right hon. Friend specify that by the end of this Parliament the net burden of taxation will be less than it is now?
    Mr. Lawson: As I said a moment ago, it is the Government's firm intention that taxation will be reduced during the lifetime of this Parliament. It will be lower at the end of this Parliament than it is now.
    Mr. Robert Sheldon: Is it not clear that the extra spending that we are now seeing is largely a result of the removal of restrictions on hire purchase, and also the reduction in the savings ratio? How long does the right hon. Gentleman expect the effect to continue?
    Mr. Lawson: The right hon. Gentleman is wrong to attribute any great impetus—although it has had some effect—to the abolition of hire-purchase controls. A much bigger influence is the decline in the savings ratio. That has happened because, with inflation coming down, people need to save less to make sure that the value of their savings is assured. That is one of the direct ways in which falling inflation leads to recovery. The recovery is now spreading through to investments, as I said a moment ago.
    Mr. Stokes: Does my right hon. Friend agree that if recovery is to be maintained it is essential that British manufacturing industry increases its share of the home market.
    Mr. Lawson: Yes, of course. As usual, my hon. Friend is right. The fortunes of the economy as a whole depend critically on British industry being efficient both in the home market and overseas.
    Dr. McDonald: How will the Chancellor compensate for a drop in domestic demand next April following changes in the housing benefit, which could lead to a drop of 9·6 per cent. in the take-home pay of a single person earning £90 a week, and a drop of 9·3 per cent. in the take-home pay of a married man, with two children under 17, earning £120 a week?
    Mr. Lawson: As I said earlier, I am confident that there will be a further growth in the economy next year. The Industry Act forecast is of a figure up to 3 per cent., and that takes full account of the changes in housing benefit. Even as a result of the changes, about 6·5 million households will be able to take advantage of that housing benefit scheme.

    Economic Recovery
    Mr. Ashleyasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what further signs there are of recovery from the recession.
    Mr. Peter Rees: In the first half of this year gross domestic product was around 5 per cent. higher than at its trough in the first half of 1981. The Industry Act forecast published on 17 November puts growth of GDP at 3 per cent. for both 1983 and 1984.
    Mr. Ashley: Can the Minister clear up some confusion that has arisen over the Chancellor's statement on taxation? Does he still believe that tax cuts are necessary to lead to economic growth? Is it not obvious that we need economic growth before we can have tax cuts?
    Mr. Rees: As my right hon. Friend made clear, we have achieved economic growth without overall tax cuts, although there have been fairly considerable tax cuts in direct taxation. For a variety of economic and philosophical reasons, we believe it desirable that there should be overall tax cuts during the lifetime of this Parliament.
    Mr. Budgen: Is not the Government's most urgent priority to find room to reduce taxation on those who earn less than the average wage?
    Mr. Rees: I have made it clear—as has my right hon. Friend—that when my right hon. Friend is in a position to reduce direct taxation, an increase in income tax thresholds will be our highest priority.
    Mr. Willie W. Hamilton: Does the Minister agree with the First Lord of the Treasury that the number of people in employment is increasing?
    Mr. Rees: Yes, I do, and I should like to draw the attention of the House to the fact that there were 167,000 unfilled vacancies at the last count.
    Mr. Forman: As continued economic recovery depends critically on export-led recovery, according to the autumn statement forecasts, what further steps does my right hon. and learned Friend intend to take to boost our export performance?
    Mr. Rees: Perhaps it would be better for my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry to outline the direct steps. All the measures that the Government have taken on the economy have been designed to allow more leeway for the private sector and to increase its competitive performance. The results have been seen in the remarkable surpluses on current account that have been achieved over the past few years.
    Mr. James Hamilton: If the right hon. and learned Gentleman does not pay attention to us, will he pay attention to the chairman of the CBI, who issued a stern warning this morning about an increase in taxation and the possible increases in electricity and gas charges? Will the Minister recognise that the 3 per cent. growth that he talks about is nonsense when it comes to Scotland, where although we do not have record redundancies we have many companies going into receivership? Does that show any signs of a 3 per cent. growth, or any light at the end of the tunnel?
    Mr. Rees: I am sure that Scotland is not a special case. Indeed, over the past decade Scotland has benefited from the dramatic exploitation of North sea oil. I am glad that

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    the hon. Gentleman attaches so much importance to cuts in taxation. As a consequence, he will no doubt support the measures that we take to curb public expenditure, which alone can make cuts in taxation possible.
    Mr. Nelsonasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his latest forecast of economic growth during 1983.
    Mr. Lawson: As last week's autumn statement disclosed, we are now forecasting GDP growth of around 3 per cent. between 1982 and 1983. A similar growth rate is envisaged in 1984.
    Mr. Nelson: Does my right hon. Friend agree that an essential precondition for higher rates of economic growth, and one totally ignored by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, is much lower real interest rates? As the Treasury is predicting a fall in inflation next year, can we now look forward to significantly lower interest rates?
    Mr. Lawson: I share the importance that my hon. Friend attaches to the level of interest rates. Indeed, that is one reason why we are determined to keep the public sector borrowing requirement firmly under control and as a declining proportion of GDP. That is the only sure way to bring down interest rates.
    Mr. Maxton: The Chancellor has said that the recovery has to be export led. Does he agree that that demands that civil engineering and engineering companies, which are major exporters, are supported by a large amount of public investment in the home economy to provide them with the home base which they need to compete successfully abroad?
    Mr. Lawson: Over the past few years British civil engineering companies have done particularly well in the export markets, and I commend them for that. What is important for them is the strength of the world recovery, and that is now coming through quite strongly. Indeed, one reason why we hope for a much better export performance next year is that it looks as though world trade will rise by about 5 per cent., whereas this year there has been a 1 per cent. fall in world trade.
    Mr. Marlow: Although my right hon. Friend is a mild man, will he take aggressive action to cut out waste and empire building in the Health Service and in local authorities, so that resources can be released to industry for yet more economic growth?
    Mr. Lawson: A great deal has been done to root out waste and extravagance in the public service, but there is always scope for much more to be done. My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Services is at this very moment dealing vigorously with the problem in the National Health Service.
    Mr. Wrigglesworth: If the Chancellor of the Exchequer wants economic growth to be sustained over a period of years, will he not need to reverse the decline in capital investment from the public purse that has taken place since the Government came to office? Will he accept the advice of Sir Ian MacGregor and start investing in capital assets in the country, so that we can have sustained economic growth for some years to come?
    Mr. Lawson: I think that the hon. Gentleman is referring to Mr. Ian MacGregor, whom I greatly respect. It is arguable that the coal industry, of which Mr.
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    MacGregor is now the distinguished head, has achieved substantially more capital investment than any comparable industry in the private sector would have received. Investment and the difference between capital and current expenditure in the public sector are of considerable importance, and if I am fortunate enough to catch your eye, Mr. Speaker, I hope to advert to that in the debate that follows Question Time.

    Capital Investment
    Mr. Nellistasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will estimate the total required capital investment, at 1983 prices, for the British economy to gain equal competitiveness with the economies of Japan and Germany.
    The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (Mr. Ian Stewart): No. Competitiveness is deternined by a wide variety of factors.
    Mr. Nellist: Is the Economic Secretary aware that some time ago the National Westminster Bank, which can hardly be called a Socialist institution, produced estimates which, when taking into account inflation since then, show that about £200 billion of investment is required in manufacturing industry for Britain to regain competitiveness with Germany and Japan? Is he further aware that as investment in manufacturing industry is now £5 billion a year, such a scale of investment cannot be foreseen under the Chancellor's stewardship and under private ownership of our economy not only in the next century but in the one after that?
    Mr. Stewart: I find it extremely difficult to contemplate the economic conditions in the next century, let alone in the century after that. I have no doubt that what is true today will still be true then, which is that our competitiveness depends on unit costs, including wage costs, on the quality of goods, on the attention to the needs of the market and on delivery dates. The Industry Act forecast includes a projected increase in investment of 4 per cent. in the coming year. That will be a helpful step in the direction that we want to go.
    Mr. Beaumont-Dark: Does my hon. Friend agree that one of the problems faced by our industry in competing with the Japanese, the Germans, or anyone else has been restrictive practices, which Opposition Members have done most to keep entrenched? Does he further agree that unless we change working practices we shall never be able to compete?
    Mr. Stewart: I entirely endorse what my hon. Friend has said. I believe that a great deal of the improvement in the competitiveness of British industry that we have achieved over the past year or two has been as a result of the much more realistic attitudes of the work force of this country, along the lines of what my hon. Friend has just said.
    Mr. Donald Stewart: When do the Government intend to call the bluff of the Japanese car firm Nissan, which has been promising for more than three years to set up a plant in the United Kingdom, or does the hon. Gentleman think that Japanese competition is justified because of the extra rip-off by British car manufacturers on their models, for sale in the domestic market as against the European market?
    Mr. Stewart: That is a question for my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry. I do not think that we should discourage investment in this country from Japan or other countries.

    International Banking Crisis
    Mr. Skinnerasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what recent discussions he has had with the International Monetary Fund regarding the international banking crisis; and if he will make a statement.
    Mr. Lawson: International debt problems were discussed at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund which I attended in Washington at the end of September. It is for each country to put its own house in order, but with the guidance and support of the fund. Hon. Members will have been encouraged in this connection by the approval last week by the United States Congress of increased IMF resources. As regards the world economic prospect, there is a clear expectation now of soundly based recovery, but the massive United States budget deficit continues to keep United States interest rates uncomfortably high.
    Mr. Skinner: Will the Chancellor of the Exchequer confirm that Mexico, Brazil and Argentina owe more than $250 billion to British banks, other banks and foreign Governments? Will he acknowledge that every child born in those countries owes $1,000 before he opens his eyes? Is he aware that, while the World Bank does not have the money to provide sufficient food for the starving millions in Africa, the International Monetary Fund is being used as a kind of second mortgage company to bail out Western banks?
    Mr. Lawson: The International Monetary Fund is not giving a penny to the countries mentioned by the hon. Gentleman. It is assisting these countries to put their own houses in order.
    Mr. McCrindle: On the question of central and south America, which was raised by the hon. Member for Bolsover (Mr. Skinner), will my right hon. Friend extend a welcome to the news that there has been agreement to reschedule the debts that Brazil has incurred over the years? Does he agree that, as these things tend to happen together, this news is likely to improve the admittedly disagreeable situation that has existed in central and south America recently?
    Mr. Lawson: I am, indeed, pleased that agreement has been reached between the International Monetary Fund and the Brazilian Government on an adjustment programme for the Brazilian economy, and therefore on the loans from the International Monetary Fund, on the commercial bank loans, which ride on the International Monetary Fund's back, and, indeed, on a Paris Club rescheduling of debts as well. However, it is of fundamental importance that the Brazilian Government and the Brazilian economy stick to the adjustment programme which they have agreed with the fund.

    Foreign Currency Debt
    Mr. Peter Lloydasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is the present level of United Kingdom official external foreign currency debt.
    Mr. Ian Stewart: Total official external debt now stands at around $12 billion.
    Mr. Lloyd: Is that not a welcome reduction in the massive official debt accumulated by the Labour Government, thereby saving this country considerable annual interest payments to creditors overseas? Does my hon. Friend believe that the current strength of the pound makes it highly desirable to reduce that debt still further?
    Mr. Stewart: The answer to the first part of my hon. Friend's question is that since 1979 we have greatly reduced the external debt of this country, which was run up in the extravagant days of the Labour Government. In fact we have reduced it by $10 billion from the figure that they reached. On the policy for the future, I think that a proper balance between the figures that we have now reached may well be where we should rest for the time being.

    Public Expenditure
    Mr. Dykesasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what recent representations he has received from the public in regard to curbs on public expenditure.
    Mr. Peter Rees: My right hon. Friend has received a wide range of representations on this question, some pressing for further curbs on public expenditure, some for relaxation.
    Mr. Dykes: If real growth in the economy revives from now on, which is what her Majesty's Government confidently expect, will that not obviate and remove the need for further cuts in public spending in both real and money terms?
    Mr. Rees: My hon. Friend should be aware that for 1984–85 we plan to stick to the published totals—published before the general election—which will not involve a real cut overall.
    Mr. Freeson: Does the Minister accept that the prospective reduction in housing investment next year, totalling nearly £500 million, is in fact a reduction in the real economic activity of this country and will produce about 30,000 job losses in building and related industries?
    Mr. Rees: The right hon. Gentleman must be referring to reductions in council house builds. He will be aware, as will the House——
    Mr. Freeson: Answer the question.
    Mr. Rees: I am dealing with one aspect of investment. The right hon. Gentleman may not be aware that there is likely to be an increase of 10 per cent. in private house building—[Interruption.] I have always regarded house building as an aspect of investment. If the right hon. Gentleman is referring to industrial investment, I remind him and the House that the CBI is forecasting an increase in manufacturing investment of 5 per cent. next year.
    Sir Paul Bryan: Does my right hon. and learned Friend agree that the chief beneficiary of curbs in Government expenditure is the standard rate income tax payer? Will he point out to the Opposition that, even in the days of the Labour Government, 95 per cent. of Government expenditure was provided not by the so-called rich but by the standard rate income tax payer?
    Mr. Rees: I am happy to confirm the point that my hon. Friend made so perceptively and to remind the House that the standard rate of income tax is 30 per cent., whereas it was 33 per cent. under the Labour Government.
    Mr. Hattersley: I revert to the original question of perceived attitudes towards public expenditure. Does the Chief Secretary recall that on television on Sunday the Chancellor promised a hard look at every aspect of the social security budget? Yesterday in the House the Secretary of State for Social Services promised that there would be no fundamental reappraisal of the pension scheme. Which of those Ministers spoke for the Government?
    Mr. Rees: It is the duty of Treasury Ministers to take a hard look at every aspect of public expenditure, but I remind the House that we have committed an extra £700 million this year and £800 million next year to the NHS.
    Mr. Hattersley: I hope that the Chief Secretary will answer at least one of the supplementary questions that have been put to him this afternoon. Will he tell us, not about the Health Service, about which he was not asked, but about the social security budget? Is there, or is there not, to be a fundamental reappraisal?
    Mr. Rees: I thought that I had made my answer clear, but obviously the right hon. Gentleman is a little dazed by his new responsibilities. We take a hard look every year at every aspect of public expenditure.

    Services (Cash Limits)
    Mr. Parryasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will assess the affect of the reduction of the cash limits he announced in July on provision of services.
    Mr. Peter Rees: The cash limit reductions announced in July were intended to remove at least £500 million of overspending, compared with total public expenditure of around £120 billion.
    Mr. Parry: Is the Minister aware that the Chancellor's actions have led to the reduction of over £5 million in the Mersey regional health authority's budget, and that there is a reduction of more than £1 million for the Liverpool district authority? That will mean further cuts in services, and, in the financial year 1984–85, will lead to further ward closures. Is that not a disgrace for a Government who claimed that the NHS was safe in their hands?
    Mr. Rees: As the hon. Gentleman will be aware, resource allocation to district health authorities is the responsibility of regional health authorities. It is true that the health authority has decided that Liverpool's revenue budget should be reduced by 6 per cent. by 1988–89, but that is against the background of the projected 9 per cent. decline in population. Therefore, that would have been achieved with no reference to measures announced by my right hon. Friend the Chancellor in July. I remind the House that Liverpool should receive nearly £30 million of capital investment over approximately the same period to assist in rationalising services and providing more community-oriented facilities.
    Mr. Latham: Will the new cash limits allow my right hon. and learned Friend to do something about the scandalous information, which has been just revealed, that the number of clerical and administrative staff in the NHS has increased since the abolition of area health authorities?
    Mr. Rees: That must be a continuing exercise, independent of the measures announced by my right hon. Friend in July, but I am certain that my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Services and regional health authorities will take careful note of the point that my hon. Friend has properly made.
    Mr. Pavitt: Is the Minister aware that the £7·5 million cut in the North-West Thames region has meant that the central Middlesex hospital in my area, which has a £1·2 million stop on capital expenditure by way of cash limits, takes only emergency cases in the summer months? Is he further aware that in the winter months it will be a disaster if there is increased morbidity?
    Mr. Rees: I take note of the hon. Gentleman's point, but I repeat that it is for regional health authorities to determine the local needs and priorities in their areas.
    Mr. John Townend: Will my right hon. and learned Friend confirm that, despite the reduction in cash limits, according to the Government's public expenditure plans, spending will rise in 1985–86 by 4·7 per cent., which could be greater than the rate of inflation? Does that not mean that the public will have to wait for any real reductions in public spending until 1986–87? Is that not leaving it a little late?
    Mr. Rees: There are bound to be readjustments between various programmes. I note what my hon. Friend said about real reductions in public spending. No doubt we shall debate that later today and when the public expenditure White Paper covering the whole survey period is published next year.

    Exchange Rate
    Mr. Fisherasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement of the effects of the current position of the £ sterling against non-dollar currencies on imports of manufactured goods.
    Mr. Ian Stewart: The level of imports is affected by a wide range of factors, of which the exchange rate is only one.
    Mr. Fisher: Is the Minister aware that the balance of trade deficit on total manufactured goods will be approximately £2,500 million this year? Does he recognise that the level of the pound against non-dollar currencies is a major factor in the lack of competitiveness of our manufactured goods? When will the Chancellor take action to redress that balance and give our exporting industries the chance to compete effectively in the world?
    Mr. Stewart: I am afraid that the hon. Gentleman, like many of his hon. Friends, seems to argue, on the one hand, that he wants exchange controls and on the other hand that the sterling exchange rate is too high. He cannot have it both ways. He should recognise that there has been a shift in all the developed industrial economies towards the service sector. If he were to look at the factors on competitiveness that I quoted to the hon. Member for Coventry, South-East (Mr. Nellist), he would see that they apply equally well to import substitution as to exports.

    Low Income Families
    Mr. Kirkwoodasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he will take steps to adjust the economic strategy to reduce the tax burden on low-wage earning families.
    Mr. Hayhoe: The Government's economic strategy is designed to reduce inflation and to create the conditions for sustained economic growth and lower taxes for everybody, including the low-paid.
    Mr. Kirkwood: Is the Minister aware that the cuts in benefits recently announced in the autumn financial strategy have caused widespread concern? Can he not get together with the Secretary of State for Social Services and sort out the joint impact on low wage earning families of cuts in benefit as well as cuts in expenditure? If there is increased growth and if the Government can contain public expenditure, will they apply the released resources to increase welfare provision for low wage earning families?
    Mr. Hayhoe: The hon. Gentleman should make up his mind. Either he wants increased public expenditure, or he wants lower taxation. It is for sure that he cannot have both.
    Mr. Eggar: Does my hon. Friend accept that there is wide agreement with the Chief Secretary's undertaking to give priority to raising tax thresholds? Will my hon. Friend also ensure that priority is given to considering the unemployment and poverty traps, and the interaction between national insurance, social security and taxation?
    Mr. Hayhoe: I can both endorse what my right hon. and learned Friend the Chief Secretary said and agree with what my hon. Friend has proposed. Those who saw the Chancellor's broadcast last Sunday will know that he made it clear that he thought it was fundamentally wrong, as well as bad for the economy, that poor people should have to pay such a high proportion of what they earn in taxation. Therefore, it is clear where my right hon. Friend's priorities lie.
    Mr. Andrew F. Bennett: Will the Minister explain why, every time Ministers come to the Dispatch Box, they express concern about the poverty trap and the marginal rate of taxation on low incomes, but every time they do anything they make things worse? Will the Minister look carefully at the cuts in housing benefit, because they have made life much worse for almost all low wage earners in rented property?
    Mr. Hayhoe: The hon. Gentleman has a short memory. Surely he recalls that in the past two Budgets the threshold for direct taxation was raised, which helped with the problem of the poverty trap.
    Mr. Dorrell: Does my hon. Friend agree that one of the principal motors of economic recovery this year has been the rise in consumer expenditure? Does he further agree that one of the best ways to continue that trend next year would be to increase the tax threshold so that we are not only achieving the social purposes espoused by Liberal Members and my hon. Friend the Member for Wolverhampton, South-West (Mr. Budgen), but maintaining the momentum of consumer demand?
    Mr. Hayhoe: Without pre-empting what my right hon. Friend the Chancellor may or may not do when Budget
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    time comes, I believe that it is clear from what has been said by Ministers today that the Government give a high priority to raising tax thresholds.
    Mr. Rooker: If the Government have a policy on this matter, can the Minister tell the House whether it is by accident or design that over the lifetime of the Government the tax take as a proportion of earnings has increased for someone on two thirds average earnings by 8·3 per cent. and decreased for someone on 10 times average earnings by 22 per cent?
    Mr. Hayhoe: Taking the whole period of Conservative Government, those who have been at work and whose earnings have increased have, on average had higher take-home pay than they had when the Labour Government left office.

    Unit Wage Costs
    Mr. Kenneth Carlisleasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer by how much unit wage costs in manufacturing have risen in the last year.
    Mr. Hayhoe: For the three months to September, manufacturing unit wage costs are estimated to have increased by 2·8 per cent. over the same period a year ago.
    Mr. Carlisle: Does my hon. Friend agree that it is encouraging that the number of people at work has risen in recent months? Does he further agree that if this desirable trend is to continue, wage restraint is essential?
    Mr. Hayhoe: I endorse what my hon. Friend says. Sensible wage settlements, improved productivity and the imaginative use of new technology all make British goods more competitive. Jobs are created by customers and the more they buy British goods and services the better.
    Mr. Barron: Is the Minister aware that since the Conservatives took office in 1979 the real take-home pay of the average worker with two children has increased by 5·7 per cent. whereas a person with two children and an income of £80,000-plus a year has had a 54 per cent. rise in real terms in take-home pay—a 10:1 bias in favour of the rich?
    Mr. Hayhoe: It was perfectly clear when we took office that the higher rates of taxation were a serious impediment to incentive and it was right that they should be reduced. However, I reassert that, for those on average earnings, there has been a real increase in the standard of living during our period in office.

    Inflation
    Mr. Andrew MacKayasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement on the level of inflation.
    Mr. Wallaceasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what the percentage rate of inflation has been over the last 12 months.
    Mr. Lawson: In the 12 months to October 1983, the retail prices index increased by 5 per cent.
    Mr. MacKay: Does my right hon. Friend agree that the best way to protect the interests of pensioners and other vulnerable groups is for the Government to continue vigorously to bring about measures that fight inflation?

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    Does he agree, however, that that process has been harmed by the irresponsible action of the unions at Ford in turning down the generous pay offer of 7·5 per cent.?
    Mr. Lawson: I suspect that the activities of the workers at Ford are capable in the long run, and maybe in the shorter run too, of damaging only themselves and their families. The Government are determined to continue to keep inflation low, and going down, by the fiscal and monetary policies that they pursue. As my hon. Friend says, that is the best possible social service that we can render to the old-age pensioner.
    Mr. Wallace: Does the Chancellor recognise that the rate of inflation that he has just announced is 1·3 per cent. higher than the rate by which retirement pensions were increased this week? How much would it have cost the Exchequer to do the decent thing and maintain the real value of pensions?
    Mr. Lawson: We have made it absolutely clear that we shall increase pensions each year by the amount of the rise in the retail prices index over the year to the preceding May. That is a far better system than trying to give pensioners an increase based on a forecast, which invariably will be wrong.
    Mr. Hickmet: Inasmuch as inflation is dependent on the control of public expenditure, is my right hon. Friend satisfied with the co-operation that he has had from his Cabinet colleagues in the major spending Departments? Does he agree that it is time there was a public debate on the matter, rather than the Chief Secretary trying to persuade his colleagues to achieve the necessary savings?
    Mr. Lawson: My right hon. and learned Friend the Chief Secretary has done an excellent job and is absolutely indispensable. Nevertheless, I am sure that it is helpful, in addition to his efforts, for there to be the widest possible public debate on these matters.

    Income Tax
    Sir Anthony Meyerasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is the cost to the Exchequer of (a) a reduction of 1p in the standard rate of income tax, and (b) an increase of all income tax and allowance thresholds by £100.
    Mr. Hayhoe: About £1,025 million and £775 million respectively in a full year at 1984–85 income levels. In line with table 4·5 of "Autumn Statement 1983", these estimates assume indexation of income tax allowances and thresholds by 5 per cent.
    Sir Anthony Meyer: Does my hon. Friend accept that it is now clear that there is an overwhelming volume of support on both sides of the House for concentrating any further relief on those at the bottom end of the scale? Whereas nobody would want to go back to the lunacy of the confiscation of very high incomes, does he agree that priority must now be given to those at the lower end of the scale?
    Mr. Hayhoe: I am grateful to my hon. Friend. That message has come through clear and loud this afternoon.

  PRIME MINISTER

    Engagements
    Mr. Pawseyasked the Prime Minister if she will list her official engagements for 24 November.
    The Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Commons (Mr. John Biffen): I have been asked to reply.
    My right hon. Friend is attending the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in New Delhi.
    Mr. Pawsey: I thank my right hon. Friend for that typically frank and forthcoming reply. However, does he agree that regional policy as currently structured has been a failure, that it has not helped British industry and that it merely serves as a form of musical chairs, moving jobs from one area to another?
    Mr. Biffen: There has been growing debate about the effectiveness of regional policy and in that context my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry has acknowledged that expenditure on regional policy has not necessarily been closely related to the creation of new jobs. He will be bringing a White Paper before the House in the near future setting out the Government's proposals to make that expenditure more cost-effective, and I am certain that there will be constructive debate thereafter.
    Mr. Steel: Is the Leader of the House aware that the decision of the Secretary of State for the Environment to withdraw his draft circular on the green belt will be widely welcomed, but that if the Government are to be effective in protecting the environment the right hon. Gentleman must also withdraw his draft circular on land for housing?
    Mr. Biffen: I note with gratitude the remarks of the right hon. Gentleman on the action of my right hon. Friend, which goes to show that he is sensitive to arguments deployed in the community generally and in the House. I cannot comment on the second matter, but I am sure that my right hon. Friend will take account of it in his future action.
    Mr. McCrindle: Has my right hon. Friend noticed the announcement by British Airways that there is to be a freeze on domestic air fares? Does he join me in welcoming this move, which indicates what can be done when there is the combination of progressive management and a co-operative work force? Can we look forward to more of the same when the airline is privatised?
    Mr. Biffen: I join my hon. Friend in welcoming the evidence of a proposed price freeze by British Airways. I agree that it is an example of what can be achieved by first-rate management working with a first- rate work force.
    Mr. Bidwell: As the right hon. Gentleman is obviously very close to the Prime Minister, will he tell the House what she is up to in New Delhi and whether she is leading the bulk of the Commonwealth in continuing to denounce the action of the United States in Grenada?
    Mr. Biffen: I am sure that my right hon. Friend, in Delhi as elsewhere, is being the most forthright and successful exponent of British national interests.
    Mr. Stephen Rossasked the Prime Minister if she will list her official engagements for Thursday 24 November.
    Mr. Biffen: I have been asked to reply.
    I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.
    Mr. Ross: In view of the continuing concern being expressed by our constituents over the possibility of danger from radiation exposure arising from nuclear emissions of one sort or another, may we have a categorical assurance that all such problems will be thoroughly investigated? May we have a further assurance that no consent will be given to the CEGB to order any parts for the proposed Sizewell reactor until the outcome of the inquiry that is now being held has been published?
    Mr. Biffen: I think that the hon. Gentleman raises a matter of widespread public interest, not least in the context of Sellafield. As he will know, the Radiochemical inspectorate is carrying out an investigation at Sellafield and its findings will be made available. Also, the Nuclear Installations inspectorate is making preliminary investigations. I think that that is a testimony to the seriousness with which this matter is very properly regarded. The CEGB has a good record of concern for public safety. I am sure that it will take account of the hon. Gentleman's remarks.
    Mr. Sumberg: Does my right hon. Friend agree that the fact that the Manchester Evening News—which circulates widely in my constituency—did not appear last night because some of its contents were unacceptable to the National Graphical Association represents a real threat to the freedom of the press in this country? Does he further agree that if that were allowed to continue it would be the beginning of the end of freedom of opinion and freedom of speech?
    Mr. Biffen: I think that my hon. Friend does the House a service by drawing its attention to this very serious situation.
    Mr. Hattersley: May we return to the subject of the Prime Minister's day, in particular the sophisticated satellite which, according to the No. 10 briefing, is keeping the Prime Minister in touch with every nuance of Government policy? May we be told whether it was used to clear with the Prime Minister the speech made by the Secretary of State for Energy on Tuesday?
    Mr. Biffen: I am not quite clear who the sophisticated satellite is—[HON. MEMBERS: "You."] I regard the term "sophistication" in relation to myself as being unnecessarily offensive coming from the right hon. Gentleman when he has the privilege to sneak to the Dispatch Box in the absence of his right hon. Friend. I am certain that in many corners of the House there will be a widespread welcome for one remark, above all others, of my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Energy, when he said:
    "The build-up of Soviet military power has grown worse and met with an inadequate Western response."
    He was there speaking with a voice which I suspect can find fewer and fewer echoes on the Opposition Benches.
    Mr. Hattersley: I am sure that the Leader of the House, plain man that we all know him to be, understands that there is a serious question concerning collective responsibility. Does each Cabinet Minister now speak for himself or does each Cabinet Minister speak for the Government?
    Mr. Biffen: I do have, perhaps, the disappointing advantage of having read the speech. It is wholly within
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    the terms of collective responsibility, tightly drawn as they are for this Administration, unlike what they were for the elastic regime in which the right hon. Gentleman served.
    Mr. Andrew MacKayasked the Prime Minister if she will list her official engagements for 24 November.
    Mr. Biffen: I have been asked to reply.
    I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.
    Mr. McKay: Does my right hon. Friend consider that Her Majesty's official Opposition were crying crocodile tears on behalf of the pensioners yesterday when, throughout the entire debate, there were hardly any Opposition Members present and, when the hon. Member for Birmingham, Perry Barr (Mr. Rooker) was summing up, there were very few Opposition Members present even though it was their allotted day for debate?
    Mr. Biffen: I think that all hon. Members will know that occasionally there are difficulties in securing a full House for even the most portentous and demanding of topics. There speaks a fully paid-up member of the usual channels. I do not think that the limited number of Opposition Members in attendance yesterday is in any sense an indication of their views on matters of welfare spending. They are deeply committed to it. I must say that the Government are deeply committed to welfare spending but we believe that we must organise the Government and the economy to provide the necessary resources before we can proceed to the generous debate about how they should be allocated.
    Mr. Willie W. Hamilton: I wish to ask the right hon. Gentleman a simple question. Does he agree with the Chief Secretary to the Treasury who said earlier this afternoon that he agreed with the Prime Minister that the numbers in employment are increasing?
    Mr. Biffen: The latest evidence made available by the Department of Employment is that the number of those in employment is on the increase.
    Mr. Hayes: Will my right hon. Friend join me in expressing the outrage of the House over the actions of certain illegal pickets in Warrington this morning who saw fit to stone police officers, causing them injury, while they were trying to uphold the rule of law?
    Mr. Biffen: I agree entirely with my hon. Friend. Violence on the picket line will do no service to the trade union movement and no service to industrial relations.
    Mr. Dubsasked the Prime Minister if she will list her official engagements for 24 November.
    Mr. Biffen: I have been asked to reply.
    I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.
    Mr. Dubs: Will the Lord Privy Seal explain why the tax burden on the British people is now higher than it was four and a half years ago?
    Mr. Biffen: Certainly. It is because we have maintained essential, social and other protective spending at a time of major international recession.
    Sir John Biggs-Davison: In view of the welcome improvement in relations between India and Pakistan, will my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister endeavour in New

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    Delhi, with other Heads of Government, to facilitate the return of Pakistan to the Commonwealth, which is the desire of its Government and people?
    Mr. Biffen: I am certain that that is one productive end towards which my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister will wish to work, but by using all the patient agencies of negotiation rather than the more headline-grabbing techniques that are sometimes urged upon her.
    Mr. Altonasked the Prime Minister if she will list her official engagements for Thursday 24 November.
    Mr. Biffen: I have been asked to reply.
    I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.
    Mr. Alton: Will the Lord Privy Seal say why Her Majesty's Government at New Delhi this week have been the only Government not to agree to the ratification of the law of the sea convention? Will he also tell us why Britain has been alone again in being against a new Bretton Woods agreement, proposed by many of our Commonwealth partners?
    Mr. Biffen: Most of those who are advocating a new Bretton Woods agreement are usually advocating a fairly generous regime of credit financing to which they are not going to be major contributors. If there is to be any sound basis of international co-operation on these matters, it must be on terms by which the self-interest of all the competing powers is engaged. In that sense, my right hon. Friend spoke the voice of realism and the conference was that much better advantaged for it.
    Mr. Lawrence: Is my right hon. Friend aware that employees of the National Freight Consortium, who purchased shares in their industry at £1 a time two years ago, have seen their value rise to £4? Is that not an example of just how successful privatisation can be for the employee, the company and the consumer?
    Mr. Biffen: I agree with my hon. and learned Friend. I believe that, as the argument for a redrawn frontier
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    between private ownership and public ownership is conducted, we shall find more and more that the arguments are with ourselves and that our opponents will be put to flight.
    Mr. Randall: Will the right hon. Gentleman give his reaction to the House at the news, which is now breaking, that the municipalised Hull telephone operation will be placing an order worth £20 million over the next seven to eight years for the British-built system X product? Does he agree that this will be a major boost to the British telecommunications industry and to the workers at Coventry and Edge Lane?
    Mr. Biffen: As someone who started his political career by fighting the old East Coventry division, which has some of the works to which the hon. Gentleman has referred, I am delighted that there has been a successful bid for that business on behalf of a British work force and British management. I hope that it is the precursor of many more successes.
    Mr. McGuireasked the Prime Minister if she will list her official engagements for Thursday 24 November.
    Mr. Biffen: I have been asked to reply.
    I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.
    Mr. McGuire: Reverting to the right hon. Gentleman's spirited defence of the Government's record on pensions and social services, does he believe that St. Francis would have been pleased with the Government's action last Friday, when they denied a Second Reading to the Bill introduced by my hon. Friend the Member for Liverpool, West Derby (Mr. Wareing)?
    Mr. Biffen: The action of last Friday can be wholly and justifiably defended on the basis that the Bill was bureaucratic and did not represent the most desirable approach to the problem. In addition, the methods used were exactly the same as those that have been applied on successive Fridays for many years.

Business of the House
3.30 pm
Mr. Roy Hattersley: May I ask the Leader of the House whether he will state the business for next week?
The Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Commons (Mr. John Biffen): Yes, Sir.
The business for next week will be as follows:

MONDAY 28 NOVEMBER—There will be a debate on the Royal Navy, on a motion for the Adjournment of the House.

TUESDAY 29 NOVEMBER—There will be a debate on Scottish Affairs, which will arise on a Government motion.

WEDNESDAY 30 NOVEMBER—Remaining Stages of the Restrictive Trade Practices (Stock Exchange) Bill.

Motion on the Judgments enforcement (Attachment of Debts) (Northern Ireland) Order.
The Chairman of Ways and Means has named opposed private business for consideration at seven o'clock.

THURSDAY 1 DECEMBER—Until about seven o'clock, there will be a debate on the European Community budgetary proposals.

Afterwards, a debate on the European Community CAP proposals.
The relevant document numbers will appear in the Official Report.

FRIDAY 2 DECEMBER—Private Members' Bill.

MONDAY 5 DECEMBER—Second Reading of Rating and Valuation (Amendment) (Scotland) Bill.

Business of the House
  RELEVANT DOCUMENTS

    DEBATE ON 1 DECEMBER: (I) DEBATE ON BUDGET PROPOSALS:
    Documents and Document Numbers

    a. Future Financing of the Community—6863/83

    b. Report by the Court of Auditors on Financial Management of Community Activities/Official Journal C287

    c. Supplementary Measures Scheme—5500/83

    d. Supplementary Measures Scheme—8552/83

    e. Preliminary Draft Supplementary and Amending Budget No. 2 for 1983–8385/83

    f. Draft Supplementary and Amending Budget No. 2 for 1983/unnumbered

    g. Letter of Amendment to the Draft Supplementary and Amending Budget No. 2 for 1983—unnumbered

    h. Community Structural Funds—8822/83

    RELEVANT REPORTS OF THE EUROPEAN LEGISLATION COMMITTEE
    a. HC 78-vi (1983–84) and HC 78-i (1983–84) para. 1.
    b. Not yet reported on.
    c. HC 34-xvi (1982–83) para. 3.
    d. HC 78-iii (1983–84 para. 5.
    e. HC 78-ii (1983–84) para. 4.
    f. HC 78-ii (1983–84) para. 4.
    g. HC 78-ii (1983–84) para. 4.
    h. HC 78-iv (1983–84) para. 1.

    (II) DEBATE ON COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY:
    Documents and Document Numbers

    i. Further Commission Guidelines on the CAP—8068/83

    458

    j. Common Agricultural Policy: Commission Proposals—8823183

    k. Tax on Oils and Fats—9596/83

    l. Imports of New Zealand Butter 1984–88–9797183 + Addendum

    m. Reform of CAP: Fruit and Vegetable Sector—9988/83

    n. Reform of CAP: Cereals Regime—9989/83

    o. Reform of CAP: Amendments to Milk Regime—9730/83

    p. Guarantee Threshold for Sunflower Seed—9986/83 + Addendum

    q. CAP: Milk levies—9233/83

    r. Reform of CAP: Structures Policy—9691183

    s. Calculation of Monetary Compensatory Amounts—9686/83

    t. Reform of CAP: Sheepmeat Regime—I0422183

    RELEVANT REPORTS OF THE EUROPEAN LEGISLATION COMMITTEE:
    i. HC 78-ii (1983–84) para. 5.
    j. HC 78-ii (1983–84) para. 6.
    k. HC 78-iv (1983–84) para. 3.
    l. HC 78-iv (1983–84) para. 4 and HC 78-vii (1983–84) para. I.
    m. HC 78-iv (1983–84) para. 6.
    n. HC 78-iv (1983–84) para. 7.
    o. HC 78-iv (1983–84) para. 5.
    p. HC 78-iv (1983–84) para. 8 and HC 78-vii (1983–84) para. 2.
    q. HC 78-vii (1983–84) para. 3.
    r. HC 78-vii (1983–84) para. 4.
    s. HC 78-vii (1983–84) para. 5.
    t. HC 78-vii (1983–84) para. 8.
    Mr. Hattersley: Is it the Government's intention to arrange a debate in Government time on the report of the Policy Studies Institute on the Metropolitan police? The hon. Gentleman will recall that the Deputy Prime Minister was the police authority for London during the period that has been so deeply criticised. Therefore, the Government are literally responsible for the criticisms in the report and should provide time to debate them.
    The right hon. Gentleman will know that last week's announcement about the changes in the housing benefit scheme will further complicate a system that is already in chaos. Can the appropriate Minister make an early statement on the workings of a scheme that is increasingly being revealed as inadequate?
    Finally, the right hon. Gentleman will know that on Friday 2 December, my hon. Friend the Member for Midlothian (Mr. Eadie) is to introduce his Prescription and Limitation (Scotland) Bill. Will the right hon. Gentleman give an undertaking that the Government will not impede the Bill's progress in any way?
    Mr. Biffen: I was unaware that the Bill of the hon. Member for Midlothian (Mr. Eddie) was particularly contentious, but I shall certainly look into the matter. The right hon. Gentleman referred to the housing benefit scheme. That is clearly a matter of general concern and I shall see whether there is a possibility of a statement. Perhaps we can discuss the issue through the usual channels.
    I am sure that the right hon. Gentleman will agree that, although the PSI report is immensely important, it is not

    459
    a Government report. Obviously, I shall consider the matter in the context of his request, although I would ask to be excused from giving an immediate response.
    Several Hon. Members rose——
    Mr. Speaker: Order. As the House well knows, there is a very important debate to follow on the Chancellor of the Exchequer's autumn statement. I propose to let business questions run until 3.45 pm
    Mr. Robert Parry: On 17 November, the Leader of the House said that there would be no Whip for the debate the following day on the Chronically Sick and Disabled Persons (Amendment) Bill. Can he explain why I received a reply from the Secretary of State for Transport on 22 November saying that he had cancelled his official visit to the port of Liverpol so that he could vote in that debate? Is it not tragic and disgraceful that a Minister should cancel an important visit so that he could vote against the sick and disabled?
    Mr. Biffen: The hon. Gentleman has been a Member of Parliament for many years, and knows that occasionally Governments quite reasonably expect members of the Government to support their view of a Bill. That has happened several times, including last Friday, and also on similar issues in the lifetime of the Labour Government. Thus, there is nothing extraordinary or new about it. I doubt whether we shall add much to our public esteem if we try to whip up moral fervour about something that does not really merit it.
    Sir Hugh Rossi: May I refer my right hon. Friend to the excellent investigation and report of Mr. Peter Oglesby, which has just been placed in the Library, and which relates to delays in processing mobility and attendance allowances? It makes many far reaching recommendatins, including some concerning medical adjudication and appeals. May I urge my right hon. Friend to arrange an early debate on those important subjects?
    Mr. Biffen: I thank my hon. Friend for that information. I shall certainly look into the matter and discuss with my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Services what further parliamentary attention can be given to it.
    Mr. Robert Kilroy-Silk: As the report of the Policy Studies Institute on the Metropolitan police is, as the right hon. Gentleman has just said, immensely important, and contains severe strictures on the work of some members of the Metropolitan police force, and clear lessons for political accountability and democratic control of our police forces, may I reinforce the point made by my right hon. Friend the Member for Birmingham, Sparbrook (Mr. Hattersley), that we should have an early debate in Government time on that extremely important subject.
    Mr. Biffen: I note what the hon. Gentleman has said. He has a long-standing interest in this matter, but I am sure that he would not expect me to be more forthcoming to him than I have been to the deputy leader of the Labour party.
    Mr. Terence Higgins: Does my right hon. Friend agree that his motto should not be "procrastination now"? As it is some weeks since he said that he hoped to
    460
    hold an early debate on the report of the Select Committee on Procedure (Finance), could we not have a debate on that subject next week?
    Mr. Biffen: The answer to that is: not without some fairly unprecedented, last-minute reorganisation of business. However, I take my right hon. Friend's point. He has chaired that Committee with great distinction, and it would be only courteous to have a debate on that subject as soon as possible.
    Mr. Dave Nellist: Is the Leader of the House aware that yesterday an inquest on a 15-year-old boy in my constituency revealed that he had died after inhaling the toxic chemicals from a pain reliever spray? Will the right hon. Gentleman allocate time to debate the disturbing increase among schoolchildren and the young unemployed of glue sniffing and the inhalation of such sprays? In that way the House can take account of the recent announcement by the Under-Secretary of State for Health and Social Security that only £2 million is to be allocated this year for the treatment of drug addiction.
    Mr. Biffen: In pursuing that topic I am sure that the hon. Gentleman will find friends on both sides of the House. Perhaps he should try his chances with an Adjournment debate, as that may give the matter further parliamentary attention.
    Mr. Ian Lloyd: In the light of recent events in the Caribbean and of the reported discussions of those events and other issues of major importance in New Delhi, is it not time that the House had a full two-day debate on the present operation and future structure of the Commonwealth?
    Mr. Biffen: We would have to come back very soon after Christmas if we were to accommodate a two-day debate on that topic, important as it is. However, the return of my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister from New Delhi might give my hon. Friend an opportunity to raise that point.
    Mr. Michael Meadowcroft: What arrangements does the right hon. Gentleman have for debating the establishment of Select Committees, if the motions on today's Order Paper relating to them are unsuccessful?
    Mr. Biffen: We shall have to see how we go this evening. That is the first hurdle and I hope that it can be overcome.
    Sir John Biggs-Davison: Given the sombre events in Northern Ireland, will my right hon. Friend arrange an early debate on the constitutional and security matters—which are connected—in the Province?
    Mr. Biffen: I shall certainly draw the attention of my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to that point, which I know gives rise to general anxiety in many parts of the House.
    Mr. Nigel Spearing: Will the Leader of the House confirm that the first of the two debates on Thursday on the EC relates to tie own resources matters that are to be discussed in Athens, not the 1984 budget which, although related, is a distinct topic?
    Mr. Biffen: I am not absolutely certain that——
    Mr. Spearing: Oh!
    Mr. Biffen:—this matter has been discussed. I shall ensure that the hon. Gentleman is authoritatively informed about the exact terms of the debate, but it will be apparent from the document.
    Mr. Edward Du Cann: I reinforce the point made by the hon. Member for Leeds, West (Mr. Meadowcroft). Is my right hon. Friend aware of the disappointment felt and the detriment done to the work of the House deriving from the fact that it is now more than five months since this Parliament assembled and the departmentally related Select Committees are not yet established? Should there be any prospect of difficulty today—we all hope that there will not—will my right hon. Friend give a clear undertaking that we shall have an early debate on the matter and come to a conclusion in that way?
    Mr. Biffen: I can put on a white sheet and say that none of the difficulties, such as they are, are of my making. That is why I hope that the matter can be speedily resolved. I note my right hon. Friend's point.
    Mr. Ioan Evans: If the Prime Minister is to make a statement on the Commonwealth next week on what day will it be made? What initiative will the Government take to seek an early resumption of the disarmament talks between the Soviet Union and the United States? Will the Government make a statement next week?
    Mr. Biffen: I should like to think that the Prime Minister will make her statement on Tuesday.
    Any action taken in the light of the breakdown of the Geneva talks should be taken quietly and constructively. I am glad that the right hon. Member for Cardiff, South and Penarth (Mr. Callaghan) shares the view of many Government Members that these matters are best discussed in secrecy.
    Mr. Teddy Taylor: As the decision on 6 December to increase the own resources of the Common Market will be a vital constitutional issue, does the Leader of the House consider that it is equally vital before that date to give the House an opportunity to express a view on whether this would be the right way to proceed? Will he also give us a clear assurance that there will be a summary, or at least a detailed outline, of the way in which the Government believe that the common agricultural policy should be reformed?
    Mr. Biffen: My hon. Friend will not find any difficulty in making the speeches that he wishes and in expressing any views he has to the countrary.
    The British Government's policy on CAP will be put to the House by the relevant Minister. It is important that the Government's position during the discussions in Athens has the authority and endorsement of the House.
    Mr. Tony Banks: I am obliged to the Leader of the House for having written to me about the White Paper "Streamlining the Cities". I urge him to consider arranging a debate on this major restructuring of local government. I cannot imagine that we would not discuss this matter on the Floor of the House, so that the Government can consider the views of Members of Parliament before legislation is introduced.
    Mr. Biffen: I thought that the hon. Gentleman might be pleased to receive the letter but disappointed with its contents. I must stand by that rather sorrowful reply. I am certain that the House will have no shortage of opportunities during the next few weeks to discuss those matters.
    Mr. Andrew MacKay: In case I and like-minded colleagues are unsuccessful in the forthcoming private Members' ballot, and bearing in mind that the widespread concern on both sides of the House makes an Adjournment debate on planning and development inappropriate, will my right hon. Friend find time for a debate as soon as possible on this subject?
    Mr. Biffen: I thought that my hon. Friend might say that he joined with the leader of the Liberal party in welcoming the recent developments announced by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment. At the moment, I cannot undertake that any time will be made available—certainly in the immediate future—for a debate on this matter during Government time.
    Mr. Laurie Pavitt: Is the Leader of the House seized of the economic importance of the Bill that I shall introduce next Friday on generic substitution for the pharmaceutical services, which would save at least £28 million, and probably £150 million, of public expenditure? In view of the Government's economic position, will he use his influence to prevent the Government from blocking the Second Reading of my Bill?
    Mr. Biffen: My influence in these matters is ludicrously overestimated.
    Mr. Eddie Loyden: Will the Leader of the House bring to the attention of the Secretary of State for the Environment the magnificent demonstration that occurred on Merseyside last Saturday in support of the actions taken by the Liverpool city council, which was democratically elected? Will he influence his right hon. Friend to come clean with the House about whether he intends to intervene and interfere with that democratically elected council?
    Mr. Biffen: Using my own language, I shall be in touch with my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment and draw his attention to the march and the principles argued by the marchers.

Ballot for Notices of Motions for Monday 12 December
Mr. Hugh Brown: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. This may seem to be a minor point. I seek your help in preventing the long queue of Members who have been distracting the Opposition side of the House for the past 10 or 15 minutes. I have never seen so many hon. Members doing this. I do not understand why an hour is not long enough for them to put their names on the ballot list.
Mr. Speaker: I am obliged to the hon. Member. I, too, was distracted.
Members successful in the ballot were:

Mr. Roger King

Mr. Geoff Lawler

Mr. Sydney Bidwell

Ballot for Notices of Motions for Monday 12 December
  BILL PRESENTED
    RATING AND VALUATION (AMENDMENT) (SCOTLAND)
    Mr. Secretary Younger, supported by Mr. Michael Ancram, the Solicitor-General for Scotland, and Mr. John Moore, presented a Bill to amend the law of Scotland as regards rating, valuation and local government finance; and for connected purposes: And the same was read the First time; and ordered to be read a Second time tomorrow and to be printed. [Bill 61.]

Autumn Statement
Mr. Speaker: Before I call the Chancellor of the Exchequer, I should say that it will not surprise the House to know that a large number of right hon. and hon. Members wish to take part in this important debate. Brief speeches will enable me to call many more hon. Members.
3.48 pm
The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. Nigel Lawson): I beg to move,
That this House approves the Autumn Statement presented by Mr. Chancellor of the Exchequer on 17 November; welcomes the continuing prospect of low inflation and steady growth, and congratulates Her Majesty's Government on keeping the public expenditure planning total for 1984–85 unchanged at the level published in the 1983 Public Expenditure White Paper (Cmnd. 8789).
I welcome the opportunity which the House has this afternoon to debate the statement that I made last week. As the House knows, I was able to report further evidence of economic recovery and further good prospects for inflation. The combination of steady growth and low inflation is something that the country has not seen since the 1960s. It is proof positive of the success of the Government's economic strategy.
It would be perverse to change that strategy, and we are not proposing to do so. The Government's aim w ill be to continue to achieve sustainable non-inflationary growth. The two essential elements of our policy remain unchanged. The first is a sound medium-term financial strategy that will keep inflation moving down. It aims progressively to reduce public sector borrowing as a proportion of total output and gradually to reduce monetary growth. Our ultimate objective is price stability. Monetary and fiscal policy will continue to go hand in hand.
Secondly, within the essential framework of financial discipline, we aim to increase incentives, to expose more of the economy to the forces of competition, and to remove obstacles to the operation of free markets. We have set out to abolish a whole range of damaging and unnecessary controls and to improve the legal framework in which business operates. We shall push ahead with the transfer of state-owned business to the free enterprise sector and promote greater efficiency within a reduced public sector.
We have already made significant progress on both parts of the strategy. Back in 1979, our first task, to borrow a phrase that will be familiar to residents of Huyton and is now no doubt equally familiar to the ghostly monks of Rievaulx, was to clear up the mess left by the previous Administration. We inherited grossly excessive borrowing and inflation on a high and rising trend and we have had to tackle them in a period of deepening world recession.
Since 1981 inflation has been falling steadily down to 5 per cent. from a peak of more than 20 per cent. Interest rates are now at their lowest for five and a half years. Output has been rising at about 2·5 per cent. per year since mid-1981 and is likely to rise by up to 3 per cent. this year and next year. We are now growing faster than any other EC country and the European Commission forecasts that that will remain the case next year.
Mr. Dennis Skinner: The Chancellor says that inflation has come down to 5 per cent. In a report today some pundits suggest that it will rise again by the end of next year. Interest rates are now down to 9 per

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cent., the lowest for some time. That means that the gap between the two is 4 per cent., which suggests that the Chancellor's beloved market—the real monetarists of the world who make money out of interest rates—believes that inflation will gradually come back up to 9 per cent., which is why interest rates are not coming down. What does he intend to do to bring inflation down if those handling the money have no confidence in his policy?
Mr. Lawson: On the contrary, the market has considerable confidence in our policies, in sharp contrast with those of the Labour Government, who had to go cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund.
Unemployment remains too high, but all the signs are that it may now be levelling out. October's fall in the adult seasonally adjusted total was the second in three months and the total employed labour force is estimated to have risen by 18,000 in the second quarter of this year, the first rise for nearly four years. Vacancies are up, short-time working is at its lowest for four years and overtime is picking up strongly.
The roots of this recovery lie in increased confidence, lower interest rates and, above all, low inflation. Like most recoveries, it began with a rise in consumer spending and reduced de-stocking. It is now spreading more widely as investment increases in line with growing profitability and exports seem set to benefit from world recovery. There is no sign of any re-emerging inflationary pressure. Government borrowing is lower in relation to GDP than in most OECD countries. The change to a climate of realism and common sense has pervaded all levels of industry. Expectations have fundamentally changed and the response has been seen in lower pay settlements and higher productivity. All this is good news. That is why there is silence from the Opposition.
It is time that the Opposition recognised that recovery has been going on for two years and shows every sign of continuing. During the general election campaign they chose to deny that there was any recovery and offered an alternative prescription for a very different strategy, which the British people decisively rejected. I can see that that must have been galling for them, but they cannot continue wilfully to reject all the evidence that our strategy is succeeding. They must stop selling Britain short.
Mr. Donald Stewart: How does the Chancellor square his own extremely optimistic forecast with today's report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which forecasts lower growth, higher inflation and more unemployment?
Mr. Lawson: The institute, bless its heart, has a very poor track record in forecasting. It is always a purveyor of doom and gloom. Nevertheless, it has improved slightly. Its comparable forecast a year ago suggested that output would grow by only 1 per cent. this year. At least it has now revised its forecast upwards to 2·25 per cent. Perhaps it will get the right answer in the end.
I shall now deal with taxation and with a point in which I know my right hon. Friend the Member for Worthing (Mr. Higgins), among others, is especially interested. In his Budget statement in March my predecessor was able not only to propose tax reductions for the second consecutive year but to say that there was a prospect of a further small reduction in 1984–85. As the House knows
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—this has occasioned some comment—in my autumn statement last week I said that the up-to-date fiscal outlook suggested that, if anything, there might be a need for some small net increase in taxation next year. It may be helpful if I described the reasons for the changed prospect.
I shall begin with this year. When the Treasury forecasts were published at the time of the Budget the PSBR outturn for 1982–83 was expected to be about £7·5 billion, allowing for some shortfall between planned and actual public expenditure. As the House will recall, there was actually a surge in public spending at the very end of the year and the outcome was much closer to the overall planning figure. The PSBR for 1982–83 thus turned out to be 1·5 billion higher than the figure published in the Red Book at the time of the Budget.
Any estimate of the extent to which public Departments will underspend on their programmes must be highly uncertain even near the end of a financial year. In forming a judgment about the likely underspend in 1982–83 it seemed sensible at the time to give considerable weight to recent experience, especially that of the financial year 1981–82, in which there was a considerable shortfall. I believe that it is now only prudent to plan on this year's outturn, like last year's, coming much closer to the planning figure.
That is the main reason why, despite the measures that I announced on 7 July, we now expect this year's PSBR to be higher than was expected in March, probably by about £2 billion, as I told the House last week.
Many of the same considerations apply to 1984–85.
Mr. Skinner: Wake up at the back there.
Mr. Lawson: In the public expenditure survey just ended we have done as we said we would and held to the planning total of £126·4 billion for 1984–85, published in the February White Paper. I pay tribute to my right hon. and learned Friend the Chief Secretary for that achievement.
Mr. Skinner: The Chancellor's hon. Friends have all dropped off.
Mr. Lawson: If anyone is tempted to drop off I am sure that the hon. Member for Bolsover (Mr. Skinner) will keep him awake.
I have also thought it right to make no allowance for expenditure shortfall next year, in contrast with the £1·2 billion originally allowed this year, and to keep the contingency reserve at £3 billion as in the White Paper. That, of course, has disappointed some of our critics, who hoped to be able to accuse us of fudging the figures. Partly because of higher borrowing both last year and this, we also expect debt interest to be a little higher next year than was previously envisaged. Together, those two factors more than offset a small upward revision in forecast revenue. That is why, despite the improved growth prospect, the overall fiscal prospect has slightly deteriorated since the last Budget.
Mr. Tim Smith: Will my right hon. Friend explain why he considers it necessary for the contingency reserve to be increased from £1·5 billion to £3 billion?
Mr. Lawson: I shall deal with the contingency reserve in a moment. The answer to my hon. Friend's question is

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that I consider this to be a prudent level, taking into account all contingencies and the experience of the past 12 months.
Hon. Members will be more interested in what the prospect will be at the time of the 1984 Budget. As I said last Thursday, the figures are subject to a wide margin of uncertainty at this stage and rest on a number of conventional assumptions. The autumn statement is not a time for decisions on appropriate levels of borrowing or taxation. By the time of the Budget I shall have much more, and much more up to date, information. Whatever decision I have to take next spring, I am confident that on present policies we shall be able to reduce the level of taxation during the lifetime of this Parliament. That is one of the Government's major objectives. Lower taxation increases the individual's freedom of choice and encourages enterprise.
As the right hon. Member for Birmingham, Sparkbrook (Mr. Hattersley) so perceptively pointed out last week, the tax burden is higher now than in 1979. Of course it is. Most of us remember that my predecessor rightly set out in his first two years as Chancellor to reduce the grossly excessive levels of borrowing that we inherited in 1979. We have very nearly halved Government borrowing as a percentage of national wealth. Any Chancellor could reduce taxation in the short term by restoring borrowing to the 1979 level. He could make a £7 billion cut at a stroke, but the price would be rampant inflation, higher interest rates and still higher unemployment. The Government are not taking that road.
I remind the House that, with financial discipline restored and borrowing again under control, my predecessor was able to reduce taxation in both his 1982 and 1983 Budgets. Public expenditure as a proportion of GDP has steadily declined since 1981 and taxation has come down too. The reductions already made, however, do not entitle us to rest on our oars. There can be no dispute about the fact that taxation at widely different levels of income is too high. We have to find a way to restore to the man in the street the freedom to spend or save more of his earnings. The more heavily wages and salaries are taxed, the less incentive there will be to earn more, the bigger will be the millstone around the necks of the enterprising, and the more destructive the brake upon industrial performance and ultimately, the worse will be prospects for growth and new jobs.
For the last two years, public expenditure as a share of GDP has fallen. It will fall further next year. We are breaking out of the vicious circle of ever-higher spending leading to ever-higher taxes and an ever more sluggish and less responsive economy.
In the public expenditure survey which has just ended we have produced plans which reflect our determination to continue that process. We plan to hold public spending broadly constant in real terms over the next three years. If we stick to that—and we must—there will be scope for further real reductions in the level of taxation. We fought the election on a pledge that we would stick to our published expenditure plans for the years immediately ahead.
On 23 May, during the election campaign, the Prime Minister pointed to our public expenditure White Paper and said:
"All of our public expenditure proposals for the coming years have already been published and are there … the whole of the Manifesto is contained in those public expenditure forecasts".
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We are sticking to that pledge. To do so we have had to rein back in some areas to make room for desirable or necessary increases in others. There are always more desirable ways of spending money than there are funds available. That is life. That is one reason why the figures can so easily be driven up and why hard choices have to be made.
Mr. Nicholas Budgen: Will my right hon. Friend tell the House whether the Government intend to publish a Green Paper or other document on the policy options that might enable public expenditure to be seriously cut?
Mr. Lawson: When my hon. Friend asked that question last week, I told him that I would give his suggestion very serious consideration. I believe that it would be desirable to maintain the momentum of the existing public debate by publishing a document of some kind on the prospects for public expenditure.
The Government have been prepared to make hard choices. We demonstrated on 7 July our resolve to maintain a firm grip on expenditure when it became clear that it was running ahead too fast. We shall ensure that tight control of public expenditure is maintained. My hon. Friend the Member for Beaconsfield (Mr. Smith) mentioned the contingency reserve. For next year it will have to cover both discretionary changes and all other contingencies, including estimating changes.
The public expenditure survey is a medium-terns exercise, concerned with the plans for next year and the two following years. In an uncertain world there is little to be gained from agreeing detailed figures for spending programmes to be carried out in five or six years' time. While recognising the inevitable limitations of long-term forecasts, a responsible Government need to look forward beyond the short and medium term. I therefore welcome the current debate about these issues.
The pattern of the past is clear. Expenditure has crept up inexorably year after year, survey after survey Parliament after Parliament. Twenty-five years ago, public expenditure represented one third of GDP. By the beginning of this decade it had reached 40 to 45 per cent. The Government are determined to bring to a halt the creeping encroachment of the public sector over an ever-wider area of the national economy.
We shall look for savings wherever they can be found—by rooting out waste and inefficiency, by identifying and securing the cost savings which new technology can bring, and by scrutinising every spending programme to see whether what is done has to be done, whether it has to be done in the public sector and, if so, whether it has to be financed wholly by the taxpayer. We intend to maintain in the longer term as in the medium term the firm grip on spending that is vital to our prosperity as a nation.
Mr. Robert N. Wareing: Since the Conservative party came to power in 1979, has not public expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product increased from 41 to 45 per cent.? Can this not be attributed largely to the fact that we spend £17 billion a year in keeping over 3·5 million of our fellow citizens on the dole?
Mr. Lawson: The hon. Gentleman is wrong. Public expenditure rose to 44 per cent. in 1981, not 45 per cent.,

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and since then it has been falling steadily year by year. The main reason why it increased was that the economy was affected by the world recession.
We in this country are not alone in that perception. The world recovery now under way is built not on some artificial expansion of demand but on a strategy of monetary and fiscal discipline endorsed at successive summits at Ottawa, Versailles and Williamsburg. There is a strategic consensus throughout the industrialised world on what has to be done, a consensus which even embraces Socialist Governments in Paris and Rome. It has helped to reduce inflation in the major countries to its lowest rate for more than a decade and has laid firm foundations for economic recovery. Only the British Labour party cannot accept the logic of the policies or commend their success. Evidently the world is out of step with the Labour party.
The need for firm monetary and fiscal policies applies equally to the developing countries, which have been especially hard hit in recent years by the combination of high interest rates, depressed commodity prices and more costly oil imports. Firm adjustment programmes supported by the International Monetary Fund are crucial. I particularly welcome the long-awaited decision of the United States Congress to support the increase in IMF quotas. I hope that the Administration will be no less successful in securing support from Congress for measures to reduce the Federal Budget deficit, because a fall in dollar interest rates would be the single most significant boost to recovery in the developing and industrial countries alike.
I have outlined our policy on the overall level of spending. Many of my right hon. and hon. Friends in particular are anxious about the balance between capital and current expenditure in the public sector. Gross fixed investment in the public sector, as it is defined in the national accounts, fell under Labour between 1974 and 1979 from 6·5 per cent. of total national output to 4·4 per cent. It fell further until mid-1981 to about 3·4 per cent., but has been broadly stable since then.
The amount of capital expenditure within the public expenditure White Paper planning total, which is the usual basis on which this argument is conducted, provides a poor guide to the impact of the public sector on this country's capital goods industry. For example, the White Paper figure for capital spending amounts to only a fraction of the total public sector capital spending. It does not, for example, include the capital spending of the nationalised industries, which is running at about £7 billion in the current year, which is broadly the same as the 1979–80 level in real terms.
Furthermore, all these capital spending figures are expressed net of asset sales. Sales of public sector housing amounting to over £2 billion last year have to be added back to the totals. The existing convention leads to the absurdity that the more successful the Government are in pushing forward their privatisation programme, the lower the public capital spending figures appear. The figures are also further distorted by the somewhat eccentric treatment of defence in the official statistics. By international convention, virtually all defence spending is classified as current; even expenditure on new barracks or a new service hospital. More importantly, a fleet support vessel
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in one berth for the Navy counts as current expenditure while its neighbour built for BP scores as capital expenditure.
With the defence equipment programme running at about £7 billion, much of which is capital spending, it makes a big difference to the figures and, because defence spending has been growing as a proportion of public expenditure, it makes a difference to the trend. If we consider these figures outside the straitjacket of the misleading White Paper definition of capital spending, we find that between 1978–79 and 1982–83 total public sector capital spending, including nationalised industries' investment, rose by 38 per cent. from just over £12 billion to £17 billion.
If we adjust the 1982–83 figures to take account of special sales of assets and council house sales, that figure rises to nearly £20 billion or twice the White Paper figure for the earlier year. The figure would be still higher if some credit were taken for defence capital spending. In other words, taking defence equipment as capital expenditure, total public sector capital expenditure in real terms has been broadly stable since 1978–79. As I told my right hon. Friend the Member for Guildford (Mr. Howell) last Thursday, I hope to improve the clarity with which these matters are presented in the next public expenditure White Paper.
Mr. Hal Miller: On the subject of capital expenditure, will my right hon. Friend accept that, for example, local authority road programmes rarely meet planning targets and that local authority borrowing for capital expenditure since the introduction of the GRE penalties has dropped from £2·287 billion to £7 million? Widespread anxiety is felt that the necessary capital expenditure on infrastructure is not being undertaken.
Mr. Lawson: It is true that over the years local authorities have regrettably shown a tendency to overspend on their current account and underspend on capital account. The responsibility for that lies with the local authorities.
In any event, what matters most is investment as a whole—private as well as public sector. The autumn statement forecast is for fixed investment rising by 4 per cent. next year against a rate of growth of up to 3 per cent. in the economy as a whole.
Mr. Terence Higgins: My right hon. Friend is making an important distinction within the public sector between capital formation as regards defence expenditure and other public sector investment. Does he agree that, in terms of the country's productive capacity, it is only public sector investment outside the defence sphere that increases our capacity to produce? That is not true of capital formation in defence industries.
Mr. Lawson: I have the greatest respect for my right hon. Friend, but I am afraid there is absolutely no distinction between a hospital built by the private sector for the defence services and one built for civilian use. It is precisely the same. Conventional treatment in the public sector White Paper is totally different.
I come to another issue which has aroused a fair amount of comment—the Government's programme of asset sales. The privatisation programme is designed to improve efficiency and to bring about greater competition, to the benefit of the customer and the nation. It reduces the

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Government's need to borrow, but that is not the programme's principal aim although the beneficial effect on the gilts market is welcome.
The autumn statement assumes that about £1·9 billion will come from the special sales of assets in 1984–85. There are considerable uncertainties inevitably attached to that figure, which is dependent upon market conditions at the time of the sales. It is not our practice to give a breakdown of future sale targets. We have already made it clear that the sale of Enterprise Oil has slipped from 1983–84 to 1984–85 and that, subject to parliamentary approval, we plan to sell shares in British Telecom next autumn. Decisions are still being taken about the mechanics of future sales, including the timing of payments.
It is entirely consistent that sales should count as reducing public expenditure. The purchase of assets certainly increases public expenditure. The markets are well able to cope with the privatisation programme and with the current reduced levels of public borrowing without putting upward pressure on interest rates. The prospective level of asset sales remains one of the factors to be taken into account when deciding the appropriate level of PSBR for the years ahead.
Mr. Richard Wainwright: The Chancellor has spoken about accounting for the proceeds of privatisation. Does he agree that it would be much more accurate to show those proceeds as one of the ways of financing public expenditure, rather than as a straight deduction from public expenditure, which they are not?
Mr. Lawson: No, Sir, I do not. The special nature of these sales has to be taken into account when assessing the appropriate PSBR for the year ahead. The right hon. Member for Sparkbrook will recall that last Thursday, in my customary way, I warmly welcomed him to his new position as his party's chief economic spokesman. In the same spirit of bonhomie and generosity, I invite him to tell us about his and his party's policies. I have spelt out ours, but I must confess to some puzzlement about his. We all know, of course, the policies upon which he fought the last election. They were spelt out with remarkable clarity in his party's manifesto and we on this side of the House are eternally grateful for that, but since then the right hon. Gentleman has taken pains to distance himself from those policies.
The right hon. Gentleman wrote in The Times:
"Last June our economic policy was a net vote-loser. Our vague hopes of achieving growth through spending were barely understood and rarely believed. The idea of 'borrowing to expand, proved crucially unpopular. The British people realised that the whole strategy lacked two crucial ingredients: a coherent plan for investment and a scheme to combat inflation."
It was honest and wise of the right hon. Gentleman to say that, but it does not take us much further forward, because on a more recent occasion he said:
"Whatever policy the Labour Party stands on at the next election, I will support it."
I appreciate that, in the Labour party, the leader and deputy leader exert as much effective control as Captain Mainwaring and Sergeant Wilson over their "Dad's Army" platoon, but it would be reasonable for the right hon. Gentleman to let us know whether he has any idea of what his party's policy might be. For example, does he support the Labour party's manifesto pledge to increase public expenditure by about £10 billion a year? If not, will he tell us by how much he has revised that figure? [HON.
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MEMBERS: "Answer."] I hope that he will, but he is shy. Does he agree with the manifesto's suggestion that the cost of such an increase would be met principally by borrowing? If so, how much would he borrow? Would it be an extra £5 billion, an extra £10 billion, or what?
Mr. Stuart Bell rose——
Mr. Lawson: I am prepared to give way to the right hon. Gentleman but he does not want to intervene. I shall listen with interest when he explains Labour's policy. The other day the right hon. Gentleman berated the Government for maintaining too high a level of taxation. However, it is still his party's policy, according to its manifesto, that
"once the economy gets much nearer to full employment, some taxes will have to be increased".
Which taxes does he have in mind? I am paying the right hon. Gentleman a compliment, in that I am believing that his party has an economic policy. If he is able to spare a moment or two in his speech, perhaps he will illuminate the House on that issue. We are entitled to know.
My statement last Thursday was proof of the Government's frankness with the nation at the general election. On public spending we campaigned on the figures in the White Paper and we have kept our word. Despite all the talk of hidden manifestos, savage cuts being in prospect and the like, the autumn statement totals are precisely the same—no less, but no more either. The sight of the Government sticking to their policies and their word has caused consternation in some quarters. We believe that election pledges are not to be taken lightly and we shall continue to keep faith with the British people. Our policies are succeeding and I commend the motion to the House.
Mr. Speaker: I have selected the amendment in the name of the Leader of the Opposition.
4.22 pm
Mr. Roy Hattersley: I beg to move, to leave out from "House" to the end of the Question, and to add instead thereof,
`believes that the Government's economic policy fails to plan or provide for reductions in the level of unemployment, accepts and accommodates a continuing decline in investment and stagnation in output and is based on the proven fallacy that a reduction in Government spending will, notwithstanding the hardship that such cuts cause, produce an automatic improvement in the economic prospects of this country.'.
The Chancellor's speech was in turn complacent and self-satisfied. In short, it was exactly what we expected of him. In two particulars at least it astounded me. It was wholly extraordinary that, in what the Chancellor no doubt believed to be a tour d'horizon of the entire economic prospect, he could not bring himself to give us a word on the looming balance of payments crisis. I can only assume that that was because at 3.30 pm figures showing a further deterioration in our balance of payments were published. The Chancellor must have known about them for the past 24 hours. Presumably he hoped that he could escape those figures during the early part of the debate. I hope that the Chief Secretary to the Treasury will make up for that wilful omission.
The second astounding thing about the Chancellor's speech was that, bearing in mind his character and record, he was peculiarly defensive. II was not the speech of a man who is convinced of his own success, despite 'the braggadocio of the past few days. Nothing demonstrated

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that better than the pathetic sub-peroration that he made. I must point out that we are debating the Chancellor's economic statement, the Government's record and the prospects that the Government offer. I am sure that he will want to divert the House's attention from his record, performance and broken promises. When the Opposition debate Government policy we intend to ask questions about it.
Mr. Peter Lilley rose——
Mr. Hattersley: I shall not give way for a little while yet.
The Chancellor's attitude today confirmed a characteristic which he revealed during a broadcast last Friday. An interviewer asked him why The Daily Telegraph regarded his statement of the previous day as an "abject and humiliating failure". The Chancellor's answer concerned not economics but ego. He said that it was
"a little premature to judge".
The Chancellor might believe that the world began when he moved into the Treasury a few weeks ago but hundreds realise that the humiliating and abject failure which the newspapers reported is not the failure of the Chancellor alone. It is the failure of the policies of the Government in which he serves. Moreover, it is not the failure of the few weeks that the right hon. Gentleman has been in the Treasury. It is the failure of the four and a half years of Conservative Government.
Sir William Clark: The right hon. Gentleman said that the Government had broken promises since the general election. Which promises have been broken?
Mr. Hattersley: I blame myself. I always underestimate the weak-mindness of Conservative Members. I shall do exactly what the hon. Gentleman asked. I hope that he will be highly satisfied with my questions, although he might not be quite so satisfied with the Chancellor's answers.
As these are early days, I begin by asking the Chancellor how long we must wait for the pledges of 1979 to be redeemed. Despite the braggadocio of his speech, I remind him of his achievements in meeting his own meaningless goals. I do not refer to the goals that the Opposition, who have a different view of society and the economy, would set but the goals which he and his predecessor set. Once, we were told that the new economic policy would produce a reduction in inflation without creating unacceptably low levels of output. That economic policy has resulted in manufacturing output falling by 15 per cent. in four years. That is a return to the level of the mid-1960s. No Administration since the second world war, other than that in which the Chancellor served, has ended a Parliament with total output lower than when it began.
I am at pains to answer the question which the hon. Gentleman asked, apparently in the belief that I could not answer it. Once, we were told that tax cuts were certain and essential. Today, the Chancellor seemed to resent my having reminded him a week ago that, under the Conservatives, taxes have increased by £18 billion.
Mr. Lawson: I shall gladly intervene to remind the right hon. Gentleman that manufacturing output has been declining for some time. Indeed, it declined under the Labour Government. I dealt with taxation in my speech.
Mr. Hattersley: If the Chancellor wants to answer my question, I shall gladly give way again.
Mr. John Prescott: Get up.
Mr. Hattersley: My hon. Friend should treat the Chancellor with appropriate tenderness.
I shall offer the Chancellor another figure which he might care to deny. Under the Administration in which he served, the total taxation bill increased from 39·6 per cent. to 45·7 per cent. of national income. The Chancellor was not reticent about that. Indeed, he boasted about it in The Times this morning. This morning's article in that newspaper was robust in praise of how ready the Government in which he serves have been to increase taxes.
I shall give a third example of broken promises. Once, we were told of what the Chancellor described as recently as last Thursday as the necessity for firm monetary policies. What do they turn out to be, but a public sector borrowing requirement that is almost £2 billion more than the Government's target. As I do not want to make "a premature judgment" about the Chancellor's stewardship—I use his words—I ask him; when will manufacturing output return to its 1979 level? It rose by 1·3 per cent. between the third quarter of 1982 and the third quarter of 1983. If that rate of achievement persists, manufacturing output will not return to the level we enjoyed under the Labour Government until the mid-1990s. When will taxes be reduced to the level that the Government inherited? The Chancellor resented my reminding him by how much taxes have increased——
Mr. Lawson: Tell us about the Opposition's policy.
Mr. Hattersley: I can conceive of nothing more pathetic than a Chancellor who presents his autumn statement and cries from his seat on the Front Bench, "Tell us about the Opposition's policy."
I shall ask the Chancellor about Government policy. He revealed that his dearest hope was that by the end of this Parliament taxes would be lower than they are today. Will they be lower by the end of this Parliament than they were when the Government were elected, or will taxes remain higher than they were under the Labour Government even after eight or nine years of Conservatism? If he wishes to be serious and to be respected, he must answer those questions.
How seriously does the Chancellor judge the £2 billion excess on the PSBR? According to the theories by which he lives, an additional £2 billion expenditure is an absolute disaster. Is the £2 billion overspend a disaster, or is it of no consequence? If it is of no consequence, why did he need to cut back £500 million last July, and why does he need the extra £500 million which he threatens to recover in taxes next year?
Mr. John Townend: Will the right hon. Gentleman tell the House what his estimate would be for the PSBR if he had the opportunity to put his policy into operation?
Mr. Hattersley: It is my firm intention to be Chancellor of the Exchequer one day and when that

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happens, I shall do my best to describe my Government's policy. I shall certainly not endure the humiliation of running away from answering questions and of trying to divert attention to a matter that is not in front of the House.
Does the Chancellor regard the £2 billion excess on the PSBR as a tragedy or as a matter of no consequence? He should know, as I am sure he does in his cooler moments, that failure to meet the PSBR demonstrates the absurdity of his position. In his terms, the £2 billion extra on that aggregate is a tragedy, yet that tragedy took place during 1983, which he describes as a year of success.
The Chancellor overstates the hope of a genuine and continuing recovery, as we knew he would. He should not talk about the National Institute of Economic and Social Research survey as though it were the only survey that confounds and contradicts him. He knows that every objective, independent survey, and every forecaster, say that his predictions are over-optimistic. On the radio this morning stockbrokers were queueing up to argue whether he was wrong by mistake or wrong by malice. Not one commentator believed that his figures were right. The Chancellor should realise that the fleeting improvement, which we acknowledge, is largely the result of the changes in the economy that he is pledged to oppose. He disagrees with the only things that have gone right during the past nine months.
I shall explain to the Chancellor how the success, as he describes it, was achieved. In addition to a brief period of industrial re-stocking, there was an upturn in consumer spending induced by hire purchase relaxation and financed by borrowing. There was also a crucial increase in public spending, including new housing capital. But the Chancellor is opposed to that; public expenditure in general, and housing spending in particular, will be cut once more. In his autumn statement the Chancellor repudiated the one moment of success enjoyed by the Government, and proclaimed the victory of theory over practice. In pursuit of his theory, he chose to increase prices and to reduce industry's ability to compete by introducing a fuel tax, which he could not bring himself to discuss this afternoon. The enforced increase in gas and electricity prices can be honestly described only as a fuel tax.
The Chancellor and, as I understand it, the Prime Minister attempted to justify the increase by claiming that the gas industry enjoys only a 2 per cent. return on capital. However, if we take operating profit as a percentage of real capital, the figure should be 5·7 per cent. This is an important part of the debate as well as of the Chancellor's conduct. The formula of operating profit as a percentage of net capital was how the British Gas Corporation's targets were measured. That was the criterion of the corporation's success, and by that criterion—initially laid down by the Government—the corporation exceeded its target by 60 per cent. However, since the gas corporation was doing so well, and even the most brazen Chancellor could not have imposed a price increase, the Chancellor—that ingenious inventor of the tax and price index—decided to change the measurement, so that the results of the industry were to be measured on retained profits as a percentage of net assets.
The Chancellor went further, and depreciated that figure in a way which the corporation's annual accounts described under the heading "Disposal of oilfield interests". The accounts said this about the disposal of oilfield interests:
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"The corporation believes that the Secretary of State will by order arrange for the disposal without compensation. Accordingly provision has been made for an estimated loss … which is expected to amount to £285 million."
The Chancellor has robbed the gas corporation of nearly £300 million by privatisation, and then used the robbery to justify forcing a gas price increase upon the corporation. Only someone who is both arrogant and short-sighted would believe that, in the long run, he could get away with that in the House of Commons. I shall give way to the right hon. Gentleman immediately if I am wrong——
Mr. Nicholas Soames: Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?
Mr. Hattersley: Not to the hon. Gentleman. I cannot remember the quotation about organ grinders, bur. I shall not give way to the hon. Gentleman. If the Chancellor wishes to tell me that I am wrong, I shall gladly give way; if the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, after mature consideration, wishes to tell me that I am wrong. I shall listen to him with great interest at 9.30 pm.
I hope that the Chancellor will also deal with a second example of what I must describe, in the most parliamentary sense, as sleight of hand. The best-known phrase from last Thursday's statement was
"the need for some net increases in taxes in next year's Budget."—[Official Report, 17 November 1983; Vol. 48, c. 995.]
No one believes that to be an objective forecast. It is an attempt to frighten those of his right hon. and hon. Friends who might press for public expenditure increases, and to warn them that if they do, they will be responsible for putting up taxes.
Mr. John Townend: Quite right.
Mr. Hattersley: The hon. Member for Bridlington (Mr. Townend) said, "Quite right," and I hope that Hansard noticed it. I am not sure whether he is one of the frightened or one of the frighteners, but whichever it is, he acknowledges that the intention to frighten is there.
Secondly, it might have been a brave attempt to create a bogus victory for the Chancellor so that when next April comes along and there is no reduction in taxes or there is an infinitesimal decrease he can say—I can hear the words—"As recently as last November I feared that there would have to be a tax increase. However, I am now pleased to be able to tell the House …" I have no doubt either that his weak-minded Back Benchers will cheer him to the echo.
Most likely, the Chancellor has not the faintest idea in which direction the economy is moving. I am afraid that, because of the humiliation that the Chancellor faces, he will be driven to new levels of political expediency and economic irresponsibility. We have no illusions about the Chancellor in this aspect, for he is, after all, the man who sold Britoil and Amersham International with so little concern for the public interest.
Mr. Soames: Although both sides of the House will acknowledge that my right hon. Friend has never been lucky in the coincidence of his views and facts—[Laughter.]—is he attempting merely to reduce any form of confidence that may exist among people who are pleased to see the economy emerging strongly, and is his sole purpose this afternoon to try to destroy that confidence?
Mr. Hattersley: The hon. Gentleman might add that the Chancellor has not always been lucky in those who

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have chosen to defend him either. I can only ask the hon. Gentleman to try to face the facts rather than to read the Conservative handout. It is the duty of the House to face the facts of the national economy and repeat what every objective forecaster, including the parade of stockbrokers, among whom it is time that the hon. Member was numbered, has said in condemning the Chancellor for his over-statement of the prospects of the economy.
Sir William Clark rose——
Mr. Hattersley: I have given way to the hon. Member for Croydon, South (Sir W. Clark) already and much as we enjoyed the intervention from the hon. Member for Crawley (Mr. Soames) I should continue, so that others may be able to speak.
We recall how Amersham International and Britoil were sold in a way that was not in the national interest, and we fear—I make no apology for the verb—that there is only one way in which the Chancellor can make substantial enough room in his budget for the tax cuts that he promised in the election manifesto, and that is to sell off, as proposed, the £4 billion of British Telecom assets next year.
There are two views about why that should be done. One is that it has some passing relationship with industrial efficiency and the other is that which was described during Question Time by the Chief Secretary as the "philosophical" obligation. Hansard will show that the "philosophical" obligation was the term used by the Rossminster Plato at Question Time this afternoon.
I put aside the philosophical obligation and ask the Chancellor, or the Chief Secretary on his behalf, to say that it is not the Government's intention to sell those British Telecom assets simply and solely with the intention of making room for tax cuts. It is not consistent with the Victorian values that I am told we should now share and observe to sell capital to finance consumption. That is not how that corner grocery shop in Grantham was able to grow and develop. I hope that the Chancellor or the Chief Secretary will be explicit about this matter.
We have no confidence in the Government's prudence and common sense in these matters. They have already squandered the years of benefit that they have received from North sea oil. Without the wholly gratuitous benefit of that boom, which no other Government have enjoyed, the economy would have collapsed under the weight of Conservative folly. North sea oil now contributes £14 billion, which is 5·5 per cent., to national income. It contributes £9 billion, that is 7 per cent., of total Government receipts. That unique benefit will not last for ever. It should have been used to finance the revival of manufacturing industry, yet, on the Government's own forecast, investment in manufacturing industry for 1984 will be lower than it was in 1979. It is no wonder that the CBI talks of the economy as being increasingly shabby and expensive to operate, and no wonder that even the CBI blames the Government for this state of affairs.
The Chancellor has talked this afternoon of a virtuous circle of falling inflation and increasing output, but even he must know that neither will be sufficient to put Britain back to work and finance decent public services as long as the policies that he advocates are applied. The fragility of the so-called recovery is demonstrated by the latest of the many of our incipient crises—a few months of
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increased consumption, matched against a crippled British industry and undermined by the bankruptcies for which the Government are responsible and a balance of payments that has deteriorated by £6 billion in two years. The figures that the Chancellor did not feel that it was right to reveal to the House confirm that that deterioration will continue.
There is not a virtuous circle, but an absurd merry-go-round—public expenditure followed by reduction in demand and a deepening recession, followed by a fall in the national income, followed by a fall in the total of unemployment benefit, followed by public expenditure as an increased percentage of national income so that the Government cut public expenditure again—round and round we go in ever decreasing circles until the Chancellor disappears up his own PSBR.
Last Sunday, the Chancellor promised something different. He promised a shift from public to private provision to solve all our problems. It is true that since then the Chancellor has been repudiated by the Secretary of State for Social Services.
Mr. Lawson: No.
Mr. Hattersley: That is not the answer that the Leader of the House, in lieu of the Prime Minister, gave earlier on, when the Chancellor had nipped out for a short while.
Last Sunday, the Chancellor said that he expected a shift from public to private provision in health, education and social security, a policy that he went on blandly to justify not as economic necessity but as the central, cardinal policy of the Conservative party. Nothing would cause a more bitter battle than what must be inherent in that promise. That promise, if it is anything other than 1922 Committee rhetoric, is not simply a threat of limited and specific public cuts but a proposal that the comprehensive public services on which a civilised country depends shall be dismantled and destroyed. That is the only possible interpretation that can be read into what the Chancellor said on Sunday when he talked of a comprehensive reappraisal of the four most important spending areas.
We are not surprised that that comes from the Chancellor, for his economic prescription is not concerned with the nation's practical welfare. He has an almost complete theoretical obsession with numbers—numbers concerning Government spending and borrowing, numbers that he seems to believe are mystically related to economic success.
Mr. Skinner: Not dole queue numbers.
Mr. Hattersley: Exactly.
Other criteria of economic success the right hon. Gentleman brushes aside. The length of the dole queue is simply the residual figure at the end of the equation when his other objectives are served. Whatever is produced by the pursuit of the monetary targets that the Chancellor regards as so important, that is the dole queue that he is prepared to have and will impose upon the British people and the economy. That is why he said virtually nothing about unemployment today. At the beginning of his speech, he had a passing reference to employment and new jobs, but not a word did we have out of him about the prospects for reducing the total of the unemployed.
I am not surprised at this, because the Chancellor will recall the record of his Government, under whom unemployment has risen by 2 million in four and a half

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years. It has risen by 218,000 in the past year, if the increase is measured honestly. Even on the right hon. Gentleman's own figures, there is no prospect of improvement. The Government Actuary's report—another set of figures that the right hon. Gentleman did not think it right to reveal to the House on the day that they were produced—even using the most favourable calculations that he and the Government have cobbled together, shows that there is to be no reduction in unemployment during next year.
If the Government believe that there will be a significant fall in unemployment, I hope that they will tell us so as the day wears on. But they will not tell us that, because they do not contemplate, anticipate or forecast, are not working towards, and do not care about, a reduction in unemployment.
Despite all that, the Chancellor has the effrontery to call his policy a success. With unemployment running at its present rate, that is not only a sign of the chancellor's insensitivity and the failure of his policies, but a sign of the difference in standards between the Government and the Opposition.
4.52 pm
Mr. Terence Higgins: It is not usual for the House to debate the autumn statement, but I welcome the opportunity to do so because the statement is likely to play an ever more important role in our future debates on economic policy.
As the report of the Select Committee on Procedure (Finance) points out, we have made considerable progress, which includes
"the twice-yearly Industry Act economic forecasts, the Medium-Term Financial Strategy bringing together projections of expenditure, tax and borrowing for four years ahead … the inclusion in the FSBR of a table showing income and expenditure side by side, and the publication of ready reckoners showing the revenue effects of major tax changes."
Therefore, we are moving towards the concept of a "green" budget.
It is important that, in addition to the usual party political battle, the House should seek to debate such highly complex matters at an appropriate level. That being so, I share the regret expressed by my right hon. Friend the Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann) earlier this afternoon that we do not have the benefit of the reports of the appropriate Select Committees on the Chancellor's autumn statement because they have not yet been set up. I hope that there will be a future opportunity for them to analyse these matters in greater depth.
The statement has received an undeservedly poor press. Substantial improvements in the underlying trend in economic growth and inflation are not news in the same way as more specific but comparatively small changes in tax and public expenditure. However, there is currently a substantial and interesting discussion in the press on the more technical questions.
The right hon. Member for Birmingham, Sparkbrook (Mr. Hattersley) said that the economic forecast could not be regarded as objective. The House has always understood those forecasts to be official forecasts, not forecasts produced by Ministers. Too much stress has been places on the question whether there may need to be a fiscal adjustment of £500 million in a few months' time. That is well within the margin of error of the forecast. We must appraise that when we reach the final form of the Chancellor's Budget next year.
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However, my right hon. Friend was right to stress that forecasts have been fallible. Government Departments have tended to underspend, whereas last year—and probably this year—they will not underspend to anything like the same extent. Indeed, they may even overspend. We must live with that fact and take it into account when appraising the actual forecasts.
Cash limits are an effective means of controlling public expenditure when inflation is rising, but they are not an effective means of doing that when inflation has been falling rapidly. Indeed, it may be possible to have greater real resources in the public sector even though the cash limits have been reduced. My right hon. Friend the Chancellor has been right to concentrate on that point.
I want to concentrate especially on the balance between monetary and fiscal policy. My right hon. Friend said that they go hand in hand. I am far from convinced that that is necessarily so. I drew attention earlier to what I described as the Bermuda triangle between the public sector borrowing requirement, the money supply and the rate of interest. That triangle is located in the middle of the Atlantic, and we must not underestimate the great importance of the dollar-sterling exchange rate. it is slightly dangerous to say that we must reduce the public sector borrowing requirement so that we can fund it easily and bring down interest rates. We may find that we cannot bring down the rate of interest, because of the strain that might be placed upon the exchange rate, and create inflationary consequences since the effect on imports is likely to be rapid compared with any improvement in exports.
We must therefore consider to what extent and at what speed, in present international circumstances, we can usefully reduce the size of the public sector borrowing requirement. I view with rather less horror than usual the fact that the public sector borrowing requirement has overshot.
We face a difficult position because of the American Government deficit. In effect President Reagan has been presented with an American university multiple choice question: put up taxes; cut public expenditure; hope that the recovery in the American economy will produce sufficient funds to finance the deficit anyway; or none of the foregoing. We are all clear that, this side of the American presidential election, the answer is "none of the foregoing."
The implication must be that United States interest rates are likely to rise, which will create a serious problem for my right hon. Friend. He expressed the wish that the American deficit should be brought under control. Some of the suggestions about the extent to which American interest rates might rise—perhaps by two, three or four percentage points during the next year—are very worrying.
A question that I have asked on previous occasions is: what is the engine of recovery? An interesting point about my right hon. Friend's speech today, as opposed to his speech at the Mansion House a short time ago, was the dogs that did not bark in the night. We did not have a clear analysis of M3, M2 or M0" —popularly known as "Little Mo". That can be debated more easily in other parts of the House during the course of our analysis.
The crucial point, which my right hon. Friend has always made, is that the real money supply is what really matters, and that is the result of the relationship between the rate of inflation and the change in the nominal money

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supply. I am worried because we have seen some increase in the real money supply as the rate of inflation has fallen in relation to changes in the nominal money supply. This has given some boost to demand. However, if that process were reversed by any resurgence of inflation, we would find ourselves again bumping along the bottom of the recession. We must give further thought to how we ensure that that does not happen. Undoubtedly, further restraints on wage settlements and the achievement of non-inflationary wage settlements must be a substantial key to that.
I am a little concerned about the position set out on page 18 of the autumn statement, which is an elegantly produced document. In it we are told that investment is expected to rise by 4 per cent. and exports also by 4 per cent. between 1983 and 84. However, as my right hon. Friend pointed out in his statement the other day, the increase in domestic demand is expected to fall. We need to consider whether those estimates of investment and exports are justified. After all, such exports depend on a substantial upsurge in world trade. Clearly investment will depend on the real rate of return as against the real rate of interest. It is true, as my right hon. Friend said, that interest rates are lower than they have been for five and a half years—I think that was the time—but that is not true of the real rate of interest, bearing in mind the fall that has taken place in inflation. This may still create real problems for investment. Therefore, we should monitor carefully how the situation develops between now and the Budget next spring.
I shall not go into the question that my right hon. Friend raised of how one defines investment in the defence sector. It was an interesting new concept. If I understand it correctly, it is that all defence expenditure on armaments and so on is regarded as current expenditure. That may be somewhat pessimistic and perhaps confuses the actual relationship.
We must place greater stress on the importance of increasing investment, as against current expenditure, in the public sector. What is less readily accepted by the Opposition, but what we often assert, is that we shall increase public sector investment only if we pay less on public sector wages. The Opposition are reluctant to face that fact, but I profoundly believe, in many respects, that is the crucial factor if we are to increase investment.
Perhaps I should also mention an accounting point. It relates to whether we should have a breakdown of the extent to which public expenditure is investment, in the sense that it increases productive potential, and the extent to which public expenditure is current expenditure. I should not want to go back to the old system of above and below the line accounting. I recall my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister and I, then in opposition, trying to work out on that basis the true deficit of the then Labour Government. However, it would be useful to have some breakdown, perhaps by way of a supplementary statement, dividing public investment from current public expenditure.
We must do all we can to restore competitiveness. The extent to which our competitiveness has deteriorated since 1979, as a result of the massive wage explosion which took place following the Clegg pay settlements, has been a severe handicap. Productivity has been improving. As a result, we shall begin to restore competitiveness.
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However, the extent to which that will take place is clearly limited in the short term. The extent to which a fall in the exchange rate can affect competitiveness cannot possibly be on the scale that we have seen during the past couple of years. Again, therefore, we have to face the major problem of public sector pay.
Competitiveness can also be achieved by some fiscal measures. I do not share the pessimism that was perhaps implicit in the official forecast about next year's prospects, so I hope that my right hon. Friend, in preparing his Budget, will take into account the need to reduce the national insurance surcharge and to ensure that the tax burdens on British industry are reduced as far as possible.
Overall, I believe that we are right to stick to the policy and reinforce the trends that we now have. It is easy, in the face of criticism in the press and elsewhere, to say that we should perhaps make a little adjustment here and do a little trimming there. The right approach is a consistent one, and I have no doubt that the real answer lies in keeping down inflation. One cannot cure unemployment, which we all agree is appallingly bad, if we go back to the old reflationary policies of the past. We now have the foundation for future progress, but we must analyse carefully some of the highly technical problems, which in my opinion cut across party lines, rather than debate the matter at a superficial level.
5.5 pm
Mr. Robert Sheldon: I listened with interest to the speech of the right hon. Member for Worthing (Mr. Higgins). I agree with much of what he said about the Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee. It is a pity that we do not have the advantage of one of that Committee's splendid reports, because it would have helped the House to understand parts of the autumn statement. The work of the dedicated members of that Committee has been of great advantage to the House in the past.
Clearly, there has been some delay in setting up the Committee. Without wishing to attribute blame, or even any responsibility, I hope that those who serve on the new Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee will find that it is a valuable Committee and bear in mind the responsibility that they will have to equal the work done by the right hon. Member for Worthing, the right hon. Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann), and other hon. Members on both sides. I hope they will come to realise that their work is to serve not the party, but the House of Commons.
Members of that Committee have the advantage of specialist advisers, which often means that they know as much as, and sometimes more than, the Chancellor of the Exchequer who comes to give evidence before them. The ability of individual hon. Members to be convinced by arguments and facts, irrespective of any judgments that they may have reached in advance, is one of the strengths of that Committee. I hope that those hon. Members who serve on it will bear in mind their heavy responsibility in carrying out the wishes of the House.
It would have been a great advantage if the Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee had examined the changes that are proposed in the speech that we heard today from the Chancellor of the Exchequer on capital and current expenditure. I find them a little puzzling. If a hospital is built I benefit from it, as do hon. Members and people in the community. It is an improvement in our

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standard of living, in that we are looked after there when we are sick. On the other hand, a military hospital is an expenditure under defence. It improves the defence services, and rightly so, but it is not the same as spending on a hospital in one of our constituencies. It is a pity that we did not have the advice of the Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee on that, and I hope that it will consider matters of that nature.
The hon. Member for Colne Valley (Mr. Wainwright) asked about the status of asset sales. Does that reduce the public expenditure, or does it finance it? The hon. Gentleman put a strong point. The Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee could profitably deal with this matter among the wider issues that concern it.
In preparing his autumn statement the Chancellor of the Exchequer seems to have had in mind two main principles. The first derives from Machiavelli's Prince. Broadly interpreted, that means, "Get the bad news over first, and thereafter everything that one does appears better by comaprison." All the expenditure cuts needed to come at the beginning of the right hon. Gentleman's chancellorship, all the tax increases—if any—at the commencement of his tenure, and the tax reductions and handouts were for subsequent distribution. Unfortunately for the Chancellor, he ran into difficulties with his colleagues. Although he was successful with the first bounce of the Cabinet in July, he failed, like all bad conjurors, when he tried to reproduce the trick a second time. He found himself with a higher level of public expenditure than he wished, and so he resorted to the next strategem, which was to dangle before the glazed eyes of his Cabinet colleagues the mirage of tax reduction.
Indeed, the right hon. Gentleman went further than that. He threatened the Cabinet, the House and the country with tax increases. That has proved to be his undoing. It has happened because simple people started to ask a simple question. If economic success is claimed, if things are really on the mend and if we are really coming out of the four-year tunnel, why is the Chancellor now talking about tax increases rather than tax reductions? As my right hon. Friend the Member for Birmingham, Sparkbrook (Mr. Hattersley) said, it is not as though we have not had tax increases before—according to the right hon. Gentleman's figures we have had an increase in taxation from 39 per cent. to 45 per cent. of the gross national product. That is what the Chancellor is asking us to accept in his autumn statement as a further instalment in the rising level of tax increases. It has thrown his entire strategy into doubt and confusion.
The Chancellor is in some difficulty. He cannot admit to his colleagues that he was only trying to frighten them into the public expenditure cuts that were part of his overall design. Having failed to win support from colleagues, he now tries to get the people on his side by inaugurating the national debate. I find it an interesting spectacle when a powerful Minister, failing to dominate his wayward colleagues, who can recognise a political wind when they feel it, calls for a national debate. One cannot help wondering whether such a debate would have been quite so desirable if the Chancellor had won in Cabinet.
The Chancellor said in answer to a question from the hon. Member for Wolverhampton, South-West (Mr Budgen) that he would publish a document on public expenditure. The right hon. Gentleman appeared to be in some doubt whether he had the power, the ability and the
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right to publish such a document. I am not sure who is stopping him, unless it is other members of the Cabinet who do not want to see a one-sided document appear. Perhaps the Chief Secretary to the Treasury will clarify this when he comes to reply, and perhaps the Financial Secretary to the Treasury will take a note to pass on to him.
What is the purpose of this national debate? It clearly has a simple objective. It is no more than to try to convince the people of this country that there should be less provision for the sick, the old and the disadvantaged, and that the jingle of money in our purses and our pockets is ample and desirable compensation. If that is what the great debate is all about we are on familiar ground, and all our political speeches of the past can be taken out of the files and once again put into active service.
It was the Chancellor of the Exchequer himself who, as Financial Secretary to the Treasury, said that public expenditure is at the heart of all our economic difficulties. That it is of great importance and difficult to control both by amount and distribution cannot be denied, but to go from there to the statement that all our troubles are due to public expenditure is to ignore the levels of expenditure in comparable industrial countries.
I do not think that the Chancellor will be any more successful with his national debate than he has been with his Cabinet colleagues. In fact, I expect him to be even less convincing with the nation at large than with Ministers fearful of displeasing a dominant Prime Minister to whom the Chancellor looks for support.
I should like now to deal with the quite brilliant performance of the previous Chancellor in engineering the pre-election spending spree. That has been the aim of almost all Chancellors since they first learnt how to exercise some control over the economy.
Mr. Tim Eggar: The right hon. Gentleman should know.
Mr. Sheldon: Tax handouts and deficit financing were the very tools of the trade. But the previous Chancellor did nothing as crude as that. Instead, hire-purchase restrictions were removed, the contingency reserve was increased, then raided, monetary targets were blurred and confused so that they could be ignored, and we had M0, M1, M2, M3, PSL1, PSL2 and so on. Few people, with the possible exception of the right hon. Member for Worthing are interested now, so confused are they about this matter. In this way the spending boom was launched and in the confusion commentators mistook spending for recovery. The result was that we had even greater imports of manufactured goods and the adverse balance in our balance of trade in manufactured goods is now about £2,500 million a year. This has been charged to that lifeline of our profligacy—North sea oil.
Paragraph 1.14 of the "Autumn Statement 1983" says that
"since 1976, while the domestic demand for manufactures has not changed greatly, there has been an increase of over a half in the volume of imports of manufactures and a fall in domestic supply of manufactures of nearly one quarter."
That frightens us all, because manufactures are the foundation of our prosperity, or were the foundation of the prosperity that we once had. There are those who talk about the advantages of the service industries. I am happy to see profits being made to the advantage of the country from whatever industry they come, but so much of the service industries depends on manufacturing industry. If

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one is importing video recorders, they need insuring, transporting, financing and servicing, but the base is the manufactured product. It is not the base of all—I understand that—but it is the base of so much, and so it is always important to consider manufacturing industry.
One has only to consider what is being said in the regions of our country. The Manchester chamber of commerce and industry, the oldest chamber of commerce in the country, made its position quite clear when it said that this improvement in the economy had not hit the sectors with which it was primarily concerned. I beg the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Treasury Ministers to go to the regions to see what is happening. The trouble is that the City of London is near, while manufacturing industry is remote. Our manufacturing industry still suffers from an over-valued exchange rate, particularly as it applies to continental currencies, as my hon. Friend the Member for Stoke-on-Trent, Central (Mr. Fisher) said this afternoon in a supplementary question.
Even the CBI—and Sir Terence Beckett speaking on behalf of it—is showing dissatisfaction with the upturn about which the Government are so proudly boasting. Sir Terence talked about a bare-knuckle fight before he realised that the CBI was a semi-political institution and that there were limits to how far he would be able to speak purely for industry. He is trying to find a balance, and in so far as he finds a balance to help British industry I am happy to see it.
On Tameside, an area which I happen to represent, unemployment has risen from 5 to 16 per cent. over the past four years. A quarter of the firms in Tameside have closed. We have no regional assistance. Small firms—in my constituency all firms are small—have closed, to the disadvantage of everyone. The Chancellor of the Exchequer tells us about the millstone around the neck of enterprise and that the Government's taxation policies have removed a part of that millstone, but I see no consequence of that action in improved prosperity. Indeed, I see the reverse.
The main purpose of economic policy is prosperity for the nation. We have only to tour the country to see the lack of success. The Government have failed not only in the matter of redistribution but in bringing in any sign of prosperity. The present policies will not succeed and the Chancellor of the Exchequer should at last open his mind to those solutions which he has so far rejected.
5.20 pm
Mr. Richard Ryder (Mid-Norfolk): In June I was privileged to be elected by the people of Mid-Norfolk, an extra constituency formed by the Boundary Commission to cater for Norfolk's expanding population. The constituency has three parents—my hon. Friends the Members for Norfolk, South-West (Sir P. Hawkins) and Norfolk, North (Mr. Howell), whose robust east Anglian dedication and independence are admired as much in the House as throughout Norfolk, and the former Member for Yarmouth, Sir Anthony Fell, whose spirit and single-mindedness are missed as much here as in Norfolk.
Whereas the old Norfolk, Central constituency, once ably represented by my right hon. Friend the Member for Chesham and Amersham (Sir I. Gilmour), was shaped like a polo mint around Norwich, Mid-Norfolk resembles a
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banana to the east, north and west of that city. The three historic market towns, Acle, Aylsham and Dereham form focal points in each direction.
My constituency proudly boasts some of the finest farmers and farm workers in Britain. Yet over the years more jobs have sprung from light industry, food processing and tourism on the unique Broads—compliments to the refreshing approaches of the Breckland and Broadland district councils, to small businesses, and to the labour force of Norfolk, which is one of the finest there is.
Thank goodness I am never allowed to overlook the fact that nearly one quarter of my electorate are old age pensioners. Many millions of pensioners have suffered over the years because the occupational pension system has been less than correct. The stayers have suffered in favour of the early leavers. That cannot be right, so I welcome the announcement yesterday by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Services. I hope that he will be prepared to go further at some stage in this Parliament. We have plenty to learn from other countries—notably the United States. I trust that the Treasury is giving all possible support and encouragement to the Department of Health and Social Security in that direction.
However, today we are debating public spending—a subject of some interest to me in a previous incarnation. I shall allude to three points about the system rather than the substance of policy. I accept that the distinction is not always a sharp one.
First, there should be a popular debate on the options on public spending open to the Treasury and the sooner the better. Originally I questioned the desirability of Treasury involvement in that debate because so much financial information is already available to institutes and forecasters and because I doubted the wisdom of the Treasury engaging in those activities. However, without the Treasury's involvement during the summer and early autumn, a debate failed to materialise, so now its participation is essential.
If the Treasury produces a Green Paper, or something akin to one, every Cabinet Minister should be consulted in full and the parameters agreed, for in the end it serves Governments no better for Cabinet Ministers to be labelled purely as protectors of their Departments than it does for them to be categorised as prisoners. While I would not venture to prophesy the outcome of a public debate on this subject, at least the interest group auction, which is as damaging to the political fabric as the use of monopoly power, would be set in a clearer context. That can only be for the common good.
Secondly, I concede that cash limits, although not cash planning, have nearly reached their frontiers. Family practitioners and the Metropolitan police may yet, I hope, succumb. Because there is a distinction between control and forecasting, it is vital for the forecasters in the demand—determined sectors of the DHSS to improve the accuracy of their estimates. Hitherto, under the Government, they have been less than perfect, and from time to time the Ministry of Defence has been little better. The task is made no easier, I admit, when defence prices are rising faster than the rate of inflation.
Thirdly, I hope that developments in the scope of the contingency reserve will prove to be a useful additional means of controlling spending. Its extension to cover

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changes in estimated costs of existing commitments in the demand-led sector will be watched by many with the closest interest.
East Anglians are by nature cautious, sceptical and independent. If convinced, they can be direct. I hope that those characteristics, among others, will stand me in goodstead in the House.
5.26 pm
Mr. Richard Wainwright: It is a happy privilege to be the first to congratulate the hon. Member for Mid-Norfolk (Mr. Ryder) on a most accomplished, informative and persuasive maiden speech. I hope that we hear frequently from him in economic debates, not that I wish to suggest that his expertise is limited to them, but it is clear that he put to good use his several years as a political assistant to the Prime Minister. We shall be glad to hear more from him.
This is a particularly important debate because, as far as one can foresee, we are now entering the final period of a few years when we have the full advantage of the providential boon of North sea oil. We are coming into a period when, wisely and prudently, we should do well to look forward to Britian's means of subsistence when North sea oil is a dwindling quantity.
The auspices under which we are discussing the autumn statement are somewhat discouraging. The House will be aware that the balance of payment figures, published today, show a current account deficit of about £269 million for the month of October compared with an estimated surplus of £305 million in September. One cannot rely wholly on the figures for any one month, but those figures show, as hon. Members rightly warned, that a perilous position with regard to the balance of payments is not far off.
The launching of the medium-term financial strategy as a published document in 1979 was accompanied by great hopes, certainly in the Government, that the strategy would markedly influence expectations, especially among pay bargainers. Alas, that did not happen, partly because each succeeding objective on the money stock proved to be elusive and the chosen aggregates became more complicated and bewildering. The turn-out of the money supply figures seemed, as the months went by, to bear less relation to the actual performance of the inflation rate.
It is a sad comedown that what was intended originally to be a trumpet of the Treasury to the nation—the published strategy and the autumn review of its progress—has now dwindled to a method for the Chancellor to signal to his Cabinet colleagues and members of his party. That has emerged as the only practical use of this year's autumn review and survey—especially the threat of possible, even if modest, taxation increases next year.
The right hon. Member for Worthing (Mr. Higgins), to whom we always listen with attention, was inclined to treat a possible fiscal adjustment of £500 million as a modest item to include in such a survey. I remind him that Governments in the past have not been backward in including fiscal adjustments of only £500 million when they were favourable—when they carried the message that taxes would be coming down. For example, on the eve of the June election, the strategy was published containing, happily, a fiscal adjustment in favour of the taxpayer which was described in the budget review
"to take the form of lower personal taxes."
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Thus, when the figures are used in that way, when they are favourable, it seems only right that the bad news should be included when that is what the forecasting machine churns out.
The other danger—one of particular significance with the present Chancellor—is that all the preoccupation with unrolling the strategy from half-year to half-year can encourage the growth of obsessions. We on the Liberal Benches rank as an obsession the Chancellor's declared aim of total price stability. Neither at the Mansion House, when he first publicly used those words, nor this afternoon, did he have anything to say about the cost of such an objective. He did not qualify his objective in any way. There was no reference to the amount of suffering, deprivation or underuse of national resources that could be involved in reaching the obsessive goal of total price stability. There is plenty of price stability in the graveyard, and there is a great risk that the Chancellor's policy, if he is allowed by his colleagues to persist in it, will become a policy of the cemetery.
The Chancellor would do better, instead of spending so much of his time embellishing and shaping his strategy, to listen to the millions of people in Britain who produce our national wealth. For example, recently the CBI joined the British Institute of Management in canvassing a wide selection of managers of different age groups and at different levels of responsibility on what they wanted from the Government so that industry and commerce, business generally, should improve.
The five leading subjects that emerged from that thorough and independent canvass were, first, reducing the cost of capital; secondly, more capital spending; thirdly, cutting energy costs; fourthly, abolishing the national insurance surcharge; and, fifthly, keeping sterling from violent fluctuations. Those matters should have the attention of the House as it considers the Government's economic strategy.
As for capital expenditure, the Chancellor regaled us with the interesting thesis that if a more comprehensive accounting technique were used, lo and behold we would find that capital public spending was a great deal higher than was given credit for in the Government's appropriately coloured grey paper that we are debating. If the Chancellor is pressing for proper accountancy practice—which would be a great revolution in Government circles—and wants to bring every possible form of capital expenditure into the total, he must also use the elementary, and elsewhere basic, accounting technique of charging full depreciation and obsolescence, of which there is no trace in the document we have here before us. Indeed, outside nationalised industry, depreciation does not appear in public sector accounting.
Owing to the neglect of recent years, in the public sector many of our vital national assets, if properly depreciated in the books and statements, would stand at practically nothing. For example, our water supply, which leaks about as much water as reaches the nation's taps, would stand in the books, if written down for depreciation and obsolescence, at practically nothing. The same would be true of a great mileage of branch railway tracks, which can be used only at a snail's pace because they have been allowed to become so unserviceable. I could cite many other examples, as could all hon. Members. It is important that the nation should be made aware of the appalling degree to which some of our prime public assets have been allowed to become obsolete and shoddy.

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Net public sector investment in assets other than dwellings was virtually nil in 1982 and was not much more than nil in 1983. As a result, there is an appalling degree of unused capacity in many of our capital goods industries. Hon. Members may have seen recently in the Financial Times the latest quarterly civil engineering work load survey by the Federation of Civil Engineering Contractors. That revealed that no less than 43 per cent. reported low order books, that 41 per cent. were employing fewer workers than a year ago, and that only one quarter of civil engineering contractors had more orders than a year ago. Only 6 per cent. of them expected an improving trend in new orders in the next 12 months.·
Mr. Robert B. Jones: I worked for that federation before coming here. Is the hon. Gentleman aware that it has all along been a strong supporter of the Government's economic policies and has wanted merely a transfer of current expenditure into capital expenditure, which I support and which, I should have thought, the hon. Gentleman would support.
Mr. Wainwright: I am aware of the views of the federation, which sometimes shares its wisdom with the Liberal party, as the hon. Gentleman may recollect. I am more interested in the reported state of the industry than in its economic foibles or persuasions, and I guess that among civil engineers there are as many political opinions as there are engineers. The federation is not a political body.
The diligent maintenance of capital assets in Britain has been and continues to be grossly neglected. For example, we learn from recently published figures—alas, there are no figures later than 1981—that total capital investment as a percentage of GDP in the United Kingdom in 1981 was 16 per cent., whereas in France it was 21 per cent.; in West Germany, 22 per cent.; and, as one might expect, 31 per cent. in Japan. We are not replenishing the seedcorn and we are not dealing fairly with the younger generation, who will not thank us for inheriting clapped-out vital national assets.
The British Institute of Management and CBI survey has proposed reduced energy costs. As hon. Members know, the electricity undertakings are now required—it is all in the grey book—to make a massively increased contribution to the Exchequer. Although the Government have not yet declared that that means an increase in electricity charges, it is difficult to imagine how that can be avoided.
Will the Minister, in reply, tell the House how far the Treasury investigated what would happen to electricity prices when it fixed on the precise increase in the contribution required from the electricity undertakings to the Exchequer? Has it discovered the implications of the figures for industry and domestic users, or has it plucked figures from the air and left the electricity undertakings to do the best they can. As is well known, some of our most vital and largest industries—chemicals, steel, man-made fibres, paper and so on—are intensive users of electricity. They claimed recently that on average they have to pay 20 per cent. more for electricity than their European competitors. That would be aggravated if the new Exchequer contribution has its almost inevitable effect.
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A further requirement by the managers of industry was for a more stable exchange rate. I believe, as my constituency is a prime exporter of many manufactured goods as well as services, that exporting businesses have two requirements of the sterling exchange rate. First, the Government must take the exchange rate fully into account, as well as the monetary aggregates, when they frame their fiscal and monetary policies. I hope that before the debate concludes we shall have a clear indication from the Government that they will do just that, as the grey book makes no reference to it. I do not ask the Government publicly to set a target exchange rate, but I believe that industry, especially exporters, wants a clear indication that the exchange rate is one of the considerations that the Government have continually in mind when framing their monetary policy.
The second requirement is that there should be greater stability of the exchange rate. The Liberal party has long maintained that to help to achieve stability, Britain should join the exchange rate mechanism of the European monetary system. I had hoped that reference might have been made not to an immediate entry, but to an early consideration of entry in the Government's autumn review, especially in view of the pound's current value. It is interesting that only 10 days ago the other place had a debate on the report of Lord O'Brien's committee on the exchange rate mechanism of the EMS. The committee, comprising 10 of their Lordships, was unanimous in recommending early, if not immediate, entry into the exchange rate mechanism. Apart from the Minister who responded, only one speaker during their debate queried that unanimous recommendation.
Much has been said about interest rates, with which I thoroughly agree. We cannot expect industry to invest on the scale that will bring real recovery as long as it is at an interest rate disadvantage of about 40 per cent. compared with West Germany—on average, interest rates in West Germany are 40 per cent. less than ours—and at an even greater disadvantage compared with our Japanese competitors. Real interest rates in this country remain so high that only the boldest spirits would dream of chancing their arm with massive investment.
The British Institute of Management survey proposed the abolition of the national insurance surcharge. That fact has been so consistently urged by the Liberal party and other hon. Members that I shall not weary the House with that well-worn theme, except to repeat it as strongly as I can.
The autumn statement gives little overall encouragement to business. Certain unsupported statements have been made that, miraculously, there is to be great turn round in Britain's export performance—and a mighty turn round it will have to be if the figures just released for October 1983 are anything to go by. We heard nothing from the Chancellor in support of the claim that we will have an export-led boom next year.
Housing benefits are the principal proposed social service cuts. The Liberal party considers that for this cut to be imposed at the present time is perverse. Hon. Members appreciate that the cut means that a married couple, with two children of school age paying rent and rates of £21·45 a week and earning 73 per cent. of average earnings, will have their housing benefit reduced next year from the present figure of £4·68 a week to £1·48. That is not all. That group has suffered already. The figure of £4·68 a week, arrived at in April, meant a cut from the

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previous figure of £6·14 a week. To reduce support to people who earn only three quarters of average earnings, in the space of 12 months, from £6·14 a week to £1·48 a week, seems cruel and discriminatory. It also greatly aggravates the poverty trap which many Conservative Members sincerely say that they wish to mitigate.
The effect of the proposed housing benefit cuts will mean that about 2 million households will face an effective marginal rate of 79 per cent. in taxes incurred and benefits lost when they have a pay increase. The most horrific figure which is vouched for by the Child Poverty Action Group—that organisation has a good reputation in this sphere—is that such a family, if claiming family income supplement, could find itself, as a result of a pay increase, facing a marginal rate of tax and loss of benefits of no less than 109 per cent. To single out housing benefits for cuts is a vicious way to proceed, having regard to the fact that this benefit had already been cut a few months ago.
I refer hon. Members to the amendment on the Order Paper in the names of Liberal and Social Democratic Members. Although it is not to be put to the vote, I commend the spirit of it to the House.
5.49 pm
Sir Ian Gilmour: I join the hon. Member for Colne Valley (Mr. Wainwright) in congratulating my hon. Friend the Member for Mid-Norfolk (Mr. Ryder) on his maiden speech, which was exceptionally stylish, thoughtful and competent. In my experience, the description that he gave of his constituency is accurate, and I think that his speech showed that he also has those virtues.
Like my right hon. Friend the Member for Worthing (Mr. Higgins), I think that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer was very unfairly criticised by much of the press for his autumn statement. A savage attack on public expenditure was inconceivable and it would have been quite unconscionable to reduce unemployment benefit. Indeed, I congratulate the Chancellor and the Government on paying attention to those in the Conservative party in the House and outside who made it clear that they would not, or could not, support such a policy.
The absence of a positive and accepted strategy for substantially lowering unemployment is still the weakest point in the Government's economic policy. The Government have always maintained that no Government can affect real demand and employment by demand management. They believe that any attempt to do so would not, except in the very short term, be effective in reducing unemployment and would merely increase inflation. However, I have taken the view that there could not be a significant and sustained recovery until the Government's very tight fiscal stance was loosened. As the Chancellor of the Exchequer pointed out, during the past year there has been a most welcome, if still modest rise in output. It has not been enough to reduce unemployment, which has increased by more than 200,000 in the past year. Nevertheless, the rise is plainly there.
Consequently, I am forced to consider the basis of my position. If the economy were to grow—not just for one more year, but for several years—at 2·5 or 3 per cent., and if it were to do so without a fiscal stimulus and without a balance of payments constraint emerging, a good many people, including me, would be proved wrong. Such a
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growth rate would not reduce unemployment, and that should be our principal objective. However, even so, I would have to consider myself confuted.
Nevertheless, the events of the past year—relatively encouraging though they are—do not, I believe, constitute a refutation of what I have been saying. I shall give the reasons for that. The figures in the autumn statement show that the expansion consisted very largely of increases in personal and Government consumption. Personal consumption rose by 3·5 per cent.—a large increase by historic standards—contributing about 2·25 of the 2·75 per cent. growth in the economy. That rise in consumption, on the Treasury's own analysis, took place without much of a rise in real disposable income, which means that it has been crucially dependent on a decline in personal savings, which has, in turn, been mainly caused by a huge increase in net personal borrowing.
But it was not only personal consumption that rose. Rather more surprisingly, Government expenditure rose much more than forecast in the Budget and much more than normal. Between 1982 and 1983, it rose by 2·5 per cent., compared with 1·5 per cent. per annum on average over the past 20 years.
Indeed, close inspection of the tables of the autumn statement in conjunction with those in the financial statement and Budget report reveal that, for all the propaganda, there has, over the two years 1981–82 and 1983–84, been a significant fiscal expansion by the back door, if that metaphor can be permitted. Table 1·9 gives estimates of Government expenditure for the years 1982–83 and 1983–84. But of course those figures do not measure the contribution to real demand properly, because asset sales have been deducted from them. If asset sales are added back, it can be inferred that Government expenditure after all the cuts is estimated to rise by 4 per cent. in real terms over the two years 1981–82 to 1983–84. But even that, I understand, is an under-estimate because an administrative change occurred within that period. About £1 billion-worth of benefits relating to sickness and housing were transferred from being a positive item of expenditure to being a negative item on the receipt side of the account. That is a device to which the Treasury and Civil Service Committee drew attention in its February 1983 report.
That change of classification means that the only fair way to measure the Government's fiscal stance is first to add back all asset sales, and then to look at the expenditure figures simultaneously with the figures for taxes and other receipts. Once that is done, one sees that not only has there been a quite large increase in Government expenditure over the two years, but that taxes and other receipts have been falling, when expressed as a proportion of national income.
Therefore, before the Chancellor of the Exchequer's taunts of the 364 economists and other objects of derision get out of hand, he would do well to consider that, apart from the rather foolhardy decision to remove hire purchase controls last July, there has been a perceptible fiscal U-turn already. Thus, the growth of the past year or so has, to a significant extent, been caused by a change in fiscal policy as well as by the removal of hire purchase controls.
If my right hon. Friend the Chancellor and the Government prefer to do good by stealth and promote a fiscal expansion while talking about the dangers of so doing, that is very much better than the Chancellor practising what he preaches. It would be best to have good

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rhetoric and good actions. But if we cannot have both, I would willingly settle for the good actions and ignore the bad rhetoric.
So much for the past. What will happen in 1984 and beyond? The Treasury has given its forecasts, and we all hope that they are right, but as the forecasts are accompanied by little argument, it is difficult to know where so much growth is coming from. We are told that the economy is moving up, but the explanation of that is like saying that the cause of high winds is a hurricane in Jamaica. So all we can do is to make calculations based on the Treasury's forecasts, and raise a few brief queries.
Two things stand out like sore thumbs. Personal consumption is said to be going to rise again by a relatively large amount—enough to contribute 1·5 per cent. to the forecast overall growth of 2·75 per cent. in the economy. Yet the two factors that are said to have generated growth this year—a rise in net borrowing, and the reduced need for consumers to maintain the real value of their financial assets because of lower inflation—are obviously not likely to be repeated.
However, the sorer of the two thumbs is the forecast trade performance. Our current balance of payments will have declined, as has been pointed out, by nearly £5 billion between 1982 and 1983, or by £6 billion to £6·5 billion if oil is excluded, bringing us within sight of an overall balance of payments constraint even though we have a surplus on oil trade of about £6 billion. That deterioration is not a one-off freak, but the continuation of an established trend. I do not make too much of today's figures, because we all know that it is a mistake to pay too much attention to any one month's figures.
However, the Treasury forecast implies, and indeed is crucially dependent upon, a drastic change in that trend, or on a mighty turn round, as the hon. Member for Colne Valley put it. As it expects the oil supply to have reached its peak, there is an implied change of trend in non-oil trade of about £4 billion a year. If that does not occur, and if, for instance, the adverse trend continues at the same rate as this year, we shall not see the forecast growth and, secondly, we shall face a substantial and growing deficit in our current balance of payments, which will become a constraint on any further growth after 1984.
There is clearly more chance of avoiding a balance of payments constraint if an expansion of public investment—which in company with many other people, I have been advocating for some time—takes over from a consumer boom which is highly import-intensive.
We need to concentrate on the final objectives of economic policy—jobs, prices, growth and output—instead of the generally irrelevant intermediate objectives such as MO, M3 and the PSBR. The PSBR, uncorrected for inflation, unemployment and asset sales, is a meaningless figure. Only if we concentrate on the final objectives can we prepare for some unpleasant possibilities in 1985 and 1986. We must all hope that the Chancellor's optimism turns out to be justified, even if, for some of us, that hope is strongly tinged with trepidation.
My right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer used to be sceptical about economic forecasts in general. It would be well if he were a little sceptical about his own or the Treasury's forecasts. If he is wrong, unemployment will not fall and our trade performance will become increasingly worrying. I hope that my right hon. Friend
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has some contingency plans up his sleeve. The pressing need is to help industry by reducing its costs and by improving the country's infrastructure. The other, no less pressing, need is to lower unemployment so that our human and material capital is preserved.
6.1 pm
Mr. Brynmor John: As a fellow born-again Back Bencher, I join the right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham (Sir I. Gilmour), in congratulating the hon. Member for Mid-Norfolk (Mr. Ryder) on his maiden speech. A maiden speech should have three qualities. It should be fluent and confident, as the hon. Gentleman's speech certainly was, and it should contain at least one novel idea that catches the audience short and makes it gasp. His theory linking the occupational pensions scandal with the over-generous endowment of early leavers certainly did that. I look forward to hearing from him in the future if only to debate that matter at far greater length than we can today.
The Chancellor's speech was full of concepts and theories but, apart from, in passing, calling the unemployed a class in his theoretical way, it lacked a sense of being directed to those for whom the economy is designed—the people of this country. We had no measure of the likely effect that the autumn statement would have on them.
I shall concentrate on the social security aspects. Perhaps it would have been better if they had all been lumped together and debated on one day, because this matter would certainly deserve such attention. The Opposition motion that was debated last night was linked to retirement pensioners. They are certainly one class of people who are affected by this measure. The unemployed, the sick and the disabled—many millions of our fellow countrymen—who must also face a winter in which their benefit is uprated by 3·7 per cent. when inflation is increasing by 5 per cent., are also affected.
The second group of people affected by the autumn statement are those in work, because they are affected by the changes in the housing benefit and the national insurance contribution. All those groups have a right to have their cases laid before the House with as much pressure and firmness as those of retired people. I hope that in future debates of this kind all the social security aspects will be debated together.
The autumn social security package began with a boast by the Government that the national insurance contribution rate would remain at 9 per cent. My right hon. Friend the Member for Birmingham, Sparkbrook (Mr. Hattersley) was challenged to say in how many ways the Government had defaulted on their obligations. When the Government took office in 1979, the national insurance contribution rate was 6·5 per cent., so there has been a 40 per cent. increase since the Conservatives came to office. In the same period the Exchequer contribution to the national insurance fund has been reduced from 18 per cent. to 13 per cent., and the Government now propose to reduce it to 11 per cent.
The Government Actuary's report states that the net contribution of income to the national insurance fund will rise by £151 million next year, which will call for a further Treasury subvention of £20 million. If there is any truth in the Chancellor's statement to The Times this morning and his dark hints during the past few weeks that a greater strain is about to be imposed on our social security system

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by the demographic needs of future generations, it might be thought that a further subvention of £20 million would be financial prudence. It might be argued that the Chancellor would not like to give any more money. Page 6 of the Government Actuary's report shows that the Government are proposing to save not just the extra £20 million that would otherwise have been spent but £459 million. That is the purpose of the 2 per cent cut.
What is the reason for cutting £459 million from the Exchequer contribution? Is it to be put into the great maw of the Treasury to be laundered in pursuit of some useless theory which the Chancellor will hold for the next six months and abandon thereafter? On the same basis as a child puts money into a piggy bank and dreams of becoming a millionaire, is this money to be a minute contribution to the next tax-cutting exercise? If the sum which is taken back by cutting the Government contribution to the national insurance scheme were pledged to housing, there would be more than enough funds to stop any cut in housing benefits and thus to stop any greater harm occurring to more than 6 million homes.
If the Chancellor were serious about cutting tax now, as opposed to cutting tax in a future Budget at some more propitious time, the amount that he has taken back from the Treasury contribution would finance a reduction in the national insurance contribution rate of both employers and employees. National insurance is one of the most regressive taxation systems. If the Chancellor were serious he would use that money to finance such a cut in a practical way.
The second part of the national insurance contribution to which the Chancellor referred concerns the upper and lower income limits. The lower limit is tied to pensions, which are raised only in line with prices and have now been increased from £32·50 to £34. Anyone who earns less than that is exempt from national insurance contributions. A consequence of tying pensions to prices is that the lower income level increases at a lesser rate than average earnings. The Government Actuary's report assumes that wages will rise by 7 per cent. in the coming year. Tying the lower income limit to prices rather than earnings has a curious, sad and harmful effect. More poor people at lower income levels are brought into the national insurance contribution scheme than would have been the case if the lower income limit had been tied to earnings. In that way, poorer people must pay a tax on their income.
The Chancellor talked about disincentives and incentives, but he was talking about the very rich. What could be more of a disincentive to people working part time than knowing that if their earnings increase above £34 a week they will pay 9 per cent. in national insurance contributions, not just on the excess above £34 but on the whole of their income? If the Chancellor is serious about disincentives, he should consider the lower income limit.
With regard to the upper earnings limit, the Government Actuary's report shows that there is now a rising surplus in the national insurance fund, which currently stands at £4·5 billion. That proves that the national insurance scheme has been used in the past few years as a milch cow to gather revenue for the Treasury. The Government, however, are in a dilemma. When we ask them to improve social services or the quality of benefit, they say that they have no money with which to do that and constantly challenge us to tell them where the money is to come from.
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I ask the Chief Secretary to consider the following proposition. A person earning more than £250 per week or £13,000 per year is totally exempt from national insurance contributions on every pound that he earns above £13,000 per year. The Government try to justify that on grounds relating to benefits, but benefits can be removed extremely quickly, as we saw with earnings-related benefit, so I do not accept that the £13,000 upper limit is sacrosanct. If the Chancellor wants extra revenue, instead of seeking mean economies from relatively poor people and their families, he should consider that potential source of revenue. Let it not be said that it would produce a piffling few million pounds. The Government have stated in a parliamentary answer that the abolition of the upper earnings limit would yield £1,140 million in 1983–84 and considerably more in a full year.
If the choice is between cutting housing benefits for people of relatively modest means or making people earning more than £13,000 pay national insurance contributions on their entire income, as most of us de, let us raise the revenue from those earning more than £13,000 per year and use it to maintain the standard of services for people on housing benefit and sickness benefit and to restore the 5 per cent. cut in invalidity benefit which was supposed to reflect a taxation benefit that is disappearing ever further over the horizon.
The Treasury has been clever in just one respect. It was clever to choose housing benefit as the sacrificial lamb because very few Members of Parliament understand the scheme. I hasten to add that I do not profess to be an expert on it myself. Almost no one outside understands it. Morever, if The Times of 23 November is to be believed, the Cabinet itself did not understand the consequences of the revenue changes involved in the housing benefit package. In the absence of the Prime Minister, the Cabinet members are showing a bravery and loquacity which will no doubt be quelled on her return.
People eligible for housing benefit were first bewildered by its complexity and then stunned by the bureaucratic shambles that accompanied its implementation. It came into operation in two parts. For those who had all their rent paid it came into force last November, but for those who had only part of their rent paid it came into force in April. The overwhelming majority of people entitled to have part of their rent paid lost benefit, compared with previous schemes, when this scheme was introduced. More than 2·5 million householders lost on the deal, more than 2 million of them as a result of the tapers—the rate of withdrawal of benefit as a person goes from eligibility to non-eligibility.
If those people thought that they were unlucky last April, they will see from the autumn statement that that was merely a warm-up bout for the Chancellor's next set of proposals. The selfsame 2·5 million people who were punished last April are to suffer further cuts from next April. In the rent element they will lose a further 10p for every pound that they earn above the needs allowance, In the rates element they will lose a further 2p in the pound. As a result of the Chancellor's statement last Thursday, dreary though it may have seemed to us and interesting though it may have been to the international exchanges, it is estimated that 500,000 households will lose their entitlement to have any part of their rent paid. The Chancellor did not see fit to elaborate on that today, but it is part of the real world in which we live and of the real hardship that he is inflicting on the people of this country.

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The Chancellor has not stopped there. He has begun to penalise non-householders. In April, 16 and 17-year-olds were deprived of the £3·10 non-householder rent allowance so that they could no longer devote that money to helping their parents to keep and house them. That penalty is now being extended to the 18 to 20-year-olds. The Government spasmodically profess to be devoted to the concept of family life, but there can be nothing more redolent of tension in the family than a system under which working parents must pay more rent every week, only to find when they turn to non-dependent sons and daughters living at home—18 and 19-year-olds who are adults in their own right—that their children's allowance has been cut and they cannot afford to make their contribution. That is an undesirable extension of parental responsibility for people who regard themselves and should be encouraged to regard themselves as adults and it will cause great family tension.
We have heard a great deal about the 5 per cent. and 3 per cent. fuel price increases. The hon. Member for Colne Valley (Mr. Wainwright) asked about the effect on the electricity industry. I am more interested to know whether any study was made of the effect on pensioners—the sick, the disabled and the elderly. Those people have one thing in common. They are all less able than other households to manage with average heating and they all spend a greater proportion of their weekly income on heating. Was there a study of the effect on those people if the increases were passed on to them, and if so, what was the result?
The Government have created a fuel poverty trap. Cold but solvent or warm but broke will be the choice for many hundreds of thousands this winter, and the Government must give the House some answers today. The Chancellor's statement was bleak, inhuman and arid Today he settled into a different mode. He merely spoke like a robot. There is, however, no sacrifice that he will not encourage others to make. Whatever economic and social distress may result, he will keep on keeping on in pursuit of the hopeless dogmas with which he has saddled the country.
When the Chancellor talks about reviewing the social security system, he does not mean considering the suggestions of the Social Security Advisory Committee to improve the system and make good some of its shortcomings. What he means is the prelude to even more senseless sacrifice. He is appalled at having to face the revenue consequences of his own hopeless financial mismanagement. He is the Field-Marshal Haig of economics. Like a down-market Field-Marshal Haig, he is making a social and economic wasteland of this country and calling it a victory.
6.21 pm
Mr. Peter Lilley: You may recall, Mr. Deputy Speaker, that this Parliament began its deliberations on an auspicious day for my constituency—St. Alban's day. I was tempted to use that as an excuse to catch Mr. Speaker's eye, but I felt that it would be presumptuous to do so at such an early stage unless I was incredibly brief. So I enquired what was the briefest maiden speech ever delivered.
It was not the brilliant and punchy speech delivered earlier today by my hon. Friend for Mid-Norfolk (Mr.
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Ryder). It was a speech delivered in the prohibition era of the 1920s when Lady Astor was trying to convince the House that we, too, should banish the demon drink. It was delivered by a Labour Member who represented a mining constituency. It is said that he was so incensed by that outrageous idea that he leapt to his feet, caught Mr. Speaker's eye, and, with commendable brevity, uttered the words, "No bloody beer, no bloody coal."
I could not match that succinctness and still do justice to my constituency and to my predecessor. But I assure the House that even if I shall not be the first and briefest maiden speaker, I shall not be the last and longest.
My constituency comprises the town of Harpenden and the villages of Colney Heath, Redbourn and Sandridge as well as the city of St. Albans. The Boundary Commission did not do us much damage, but neither did it, as I had hoped, extend the boundaries slightly to the north to include the village of Lilley where my tribe originated. It did, however, give me the village of Colney Heath, which was formerly represented by my right hon. Friend the Member for Hertsmere (Mr. Parkinson), the value of whose work there is warmly recognised by those whose interests I now serve.
The rest of the constituency was represented for 23 years by Sir Victor Goodhew. It will be no surprise to Sir Victor's many friends in this House, who remember the distinction with which he served here, to know that I meet countless people in the constituency who express their gratitude for his work on their behalf during that long period. His is a daunting record to follow, but it is a great privilege to represent this ancient seat.
St. Albans has an inspiring Christian heritage. It gave this country its first English martyr, its only English pope and its current Archbishop of Canterbury. St. Albans has been associated with many famous historical figures, including Matthew Paris—not my hon. Friend the Member for Derbyshire, West (Mr. Parris) but the medieval historian—Francis Bacon and some formidable women including Boadicea, who sacked the city, Nell Gwyn who gave us a duke, and Sarah Jennings, Duchess of Marlborough, who manipulated the country from St. Albans.
My constituents share my pride in the historic origins of the constituency. They are determined to uphold not only the historic character of the city but the beauty of its buildings and of the villages and countryside. The one thing that unites the inhabitants of the sometimes disparate settlements is their desire to remain separated from each other by a stretch of green belt. There will be a universal welcome in my constituency for the news that my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment is to allay fears that the sanctity of the green belt might be threatened by his recent circular.
The Government were elected to subject all aspects of public expenditure to stringent scrutiny. I want to uphold the tradition that one does not make partisan or party political points in a maiden speech. So I wish to suggest that we should apply this rigorous scrutiny not only to those areas where we are said to be "hard-hearted"—for instance, the social services—but to those areas in which we are said to be a "soft touch"—agriculture, defence, and our gross contribution to the European budget.
I congratulate the Chancellor on restricting total public expenditure to the levels previously planned. I could not help noting, however, that the largest increase above the

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previous plans is in agriculture—a difference of £422 million in the intervention fund for agricultural support. We cannot blame that increase entirely on the European Community. We have some discretion over the amount spent on agriculture in this country through the way in which we influence the price settlement in the EC and manipulate the green pound. I hope that in future we will apply stringent criteria and prevent overruns.
My eye was also struck by the continuing 3 per cent. growth in defence expenditure. I welcome the fact that the commitment to 3 per cent. growth will end in 1985–86. The 3 per cent. figure was a purely arbitrary one designed primarily to encourage other states which were not pulling their weight although we were doing so. With the expansion in the defence budget that we have achieved there will be scope to fulfil our obligations and enable my constituents, many of whom work in the defence industries, to earn a satisfactory living and to contribute to the defence of the realm.
It is not easy to identify, in the autumn statement, our gross contribution to the European budget. I fear that some deal may be clone in Athens to augment our contribution to the budget and to increase the own resources of the European Community. When my hon. Friend the Member for Beaconsfield (Mr. Smith) referred to the contingency reserve, I feared that the size of the contingency reserve might be a recognition of the contingency that we might make such a settlement. I hope that it is not.
I am not opposed to our membership of the Community. I have always been a passionate supporter of membership. During the referendum campaign I supported our continued membership of Europe. Perhaps I ought to declare an interest. It was during that campaign that I met the young lady who is now my wife. She was the local secretary of the European movement. Together with the farmers and the bureaucrats in Brussels, I have "done rather well out of Europe".
If we are serious about controlling public expenditure, we must control it not only at home but in our contribution to the European Community. It would not be easy for me to tell the 4,000 health workers in my constituency that we have to blight their job prospects in order to preserve the jobs of inefficient farmers in France. I cannot go to the teachers in my constituency and say, "I am terribly sorry, but there are no extra resources to deal with falling rolls because we have to finance an olive oil lake in Greece." I cannot go to the defence workers and say, "I am sorry, I supported an end to the commitment for an ever-growing 3 per cent. expenditure on defence, but I am prepared to see an increase in the European budget which would have the effect of increasing expenditure by more than 3 per cent."
I am fairly convinced that the Government and my right hon. Friends, by imposing certain conditions, will prevent agreement to such as increase in the own resources of the European budget. However, I find the Government's conditions slightly puzzling. They say that we might agree to an increase in own resources if the EC gets its act together and controls the agricultural policy. I find that a little hard to justify, because the matter is simple. The EC wants extra money to spend on agriculture. If we give it the extra money, it will spend the bulk on agriculture. If we do not give it the money, it will not be able to spend it on agriculture and will be obliged to reform the common agricultural policy. If it does that we shall not need to give it any more money. Quod erat demonstrandum. I hope my
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right hon. Friends will take note that there is a deep feeling that this expenditure would be contrary to the broad thrust of our policy, so admirably achieved, and outlined in the autumn statement. I hope they recognise that they will have the wholehearted support of the House if they resist any increase in this area of public expenditure.
I am grateful to the House for its forbearance.
6.31 pm
Mr. Brian Sedgemore: We have just heard a delightful maiden speech from the hon. Member for St. Albans (Mr. Utley), who represents a delightful part of the country. I know it well because until a few months ago I lived a few miles from St. Albans. Whether it was going to tea with the once-Bishop of St. Albans or simply having a walk around the hon. Gentleman's constituency, it was always a great pleasure. The then Bishop of St. Albans, as the hon. Gentleman said, has become Archbishop of Canterbury. If the hon. Gentleman rises as high in politics as Dr. Runcie has in the Church, we shall wish him well on his way. If he does not, we shall look forward to hearing him speak on future occasions.
We heard an extraordinary, brief but impressive speech from the right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham (Sir Ian Gilmour). It was a powerful and eloquent indictment of Government policy. Even as he spoke, I recalled a speech made outside the House a few weeks ago by the right hon. Member for Chelmsford (Mr. St. JohnStevas). He spoke about the poisonous cloud of ideologues and theoreticians hovering around Downing street whose "exaggerated and brutal ideas masquerade as radicalism rather than the mere reactionaries that they are."
I hope that those two right hon. Gentlemen will join us in the Lobby tonight. Even if they do not, I sincerely hope that they all keep up their powerful arguments against Government policy and that the Chancellor, even if he will not listen to us, will begin to listen to them.
Such is this life—we all know in the House, that venom can be found in lovers' tiffs rather than in the arguments that exist between enemies—that I shall be much kinder to the Chancellor than the two right hon. Gentlemen whom I have mentioned.
We were all deeply moved and rather saddened to hear the Chancellor say recently that such was the age of penance and penury introduced by the Government that even he could no longer enjoy some of the creature comforts that he once did. Listening to him today, my mind was cast back to an earlier age of penance and penury which induced Cromwell to write to the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland. Dated 3 August 1650, his letter could equally well have been addressed to the Chancellor today, beginning as it did:
"I beseech you in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken."
Every time the Chancellor speaks he seems determined to reiterate the superstitions of malevolent economists which surfaced first in this country in the 18th century and took hold of people's minds in the 19th century. There is so little of substance of his own in what the Chancellor said that one recalls the description by Keynes of Lloyd George when he referred to him as
"both vampire and medium in one."
The Chancellor seeks to hide the coruscating effect of his policy and that creates a problem for the Opposition because, at any given time, we are never quite sure which

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of the ancient superstitions is being propagated by Conservative Members. In 1979 the superstition was that targets for sterling M3 could be achieved by reducing the PSBR, although there is no link between sterling M3 and the PSBR. M3 is beyond the control of Governments not prepared to manipulate interest rates which banks pay relative to market interest rates.
We were then told that salvation could be achieved by controlling the monetary aggregates through the exchange rates. We are now told by the right hon. Member for Worthing (Mr. Higgins) that the problem lies in the relationship between the monetary aggregates and the rate of inflation. If the Select Committee on the Treasury and Civil Service is ever set up, no doubt we can debate some of those points. However, that is not the real problem, which is the Government's adherence to voodoo and the Chancellor's incompetence. The monetarist experiment has failed.
I thought that it was summed up by the eloquent mathematics and precise words of Buiter and Millar who wrote an extraordinarily perceptive article in the Brookings Institute paper on economic activity. I see the Chancellor smile, and I dare say he will get his Chief Secretary to refer to it when he replies. It concluded:
"If monetarism was seen as a way to cure inflation at minimum cost, it has not succeeded."
In developing those themes in the autumn statement, we have seen economics lacking in principle, heart and substance. The autumn statement is all of those things because it refuses to address itself to the long-term problems of efficiency, production and living standards. Even worse, what is wrong with the old economics made new, which is contained in the statement, is the way in which it characterises failure as success, and the way in which the old economics refuses to accept empirical evidence which contradicts and destroys the theoretical basis of the Chancellor's arguments.
I want to examine for a few moments the economics of success as defined by the Chancellor. Where better to start than with tax reductions, about which the Government made so many big promises. If we study Government revenue from taxation and national insurance contributions, we see that in 1978–79 it was 34·1 per cent. of GDP at market prices, in 1979–80, 35·4 per cent., in 1980–81, 36·4 per cent., in 1981–82, 39·3 per cent., and in 1982–83, 38·7 per cent. Even if we return to the forecast in the autumn statement for 1983–84 and 1984–85—page 16 of that document—at the end of 1985 the figure will still be 38·4 per cent. To describe that colossal increase in the burden of taxation as "success" is surely to carry lexical malevolence beyond the point of credulity.
Perhaps the Chancellor can claim success with manufacturing output and trade. It is true that he has just succeeded in having this country included in the "Guinness Book of Records". For the first time in recorded history our manufacturing account on finished goods is in deficit. Success cannot really be about that. Perhaps the Chancellor claims the index of manufacturing output as success. I have studied that index from various countries in the advanced industrial world for the second quarter of 1979 and compared it with the index for the latest three-month period. In Denmark the index rose by 8 per cent.; in the United States of America and Belgium it was down
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by 2 per cent.; in Italy, the Netherlands and West Germany it was down by 3 per cent.; in France it was down by 4 per cent.; and in Great Britain it was down by 15 per cent.
That means that the British performance is three, four and five times worse than that of our principal competitors. Only a political ruffian would dare come to the House and describe that as success. Is it any wonder that only last Sunday The Sunday Times, which is under instructions not to attack the Government, said in its editorial that it was time the Chancellor stopped prattling on about the monetary aggregates and the public sector borrowing requirement and looked at what was happening on the shop floor?
Is it any wonder that The Observer accused the Chancellor of indulging in the economics of the white rabbit? Is it any wonder that a Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee said that a great part of the recession had been induced by the Government? Is it any wonder that economists from London to Washington are complaining that the Chancellor's timeless communion with theory which is unrelated to action, consequence or achievement, is making him a laughing stock and Britain a country to be pitied as it bleeds from wounds that have been imposed upon it by its own Government?
The figures for manufacturing output show that Britain is not the innocent victim of an international recession. The unemployment figures show precisely the same thing. In August this year unemployment in Britain stood at 12·8 per cent. In Italy it was 10·3 per cent., in the United States 9·4 per cent., in France 8·1 per cent. and in Germany 7·7 per cent. Even an examination of the rate of change in unemployment since 1979 reveals that only one country—Germany—has suffered a more rapid increase in unemployment than Britain.
Comparison of unemployment figures for the three months ending in June 1979 and the three months ending in August 1983 reveals that unemployment in Italy inreased by 43 per cent. whereas in France it increased by 51 per cent., in Belgium by 77 per cent., in the United States by 81 per cent. and in the United Kingdom by 137 per cent. Only Germany suffered a bigger increase, at 167 per cent. Behind those figures lies a potential social explosion.
The same is true of the figures for long-term unemployment—those who have been out of work for 52 weeks or more. In October 1979, 357,000 people had been unemployed in Britain for more than 52 weeks. In October 1980 that had increased to 401,000. In October 1981 it had increased to 515,000 and in October 1982 it had increased again to 1,169,000. After that, comparisons became impossible because the Government began to fiddle the figures by changing the basis on which unemployment was calculated. However, on the new method of calculation, long-term unemployment reached 589,000 in October 1982 and 1,142,000 in October 1983. The figures for long-term unemployment have gone up and up. Next year they will go up again. the Chancellor, sitting back smugly and doing nothing about that, is the biggest disgrace of this debate. Only a Chancellor who is backward and deficient as a politician and as a human being would have the complacency that we witnessed at the Dispatch Box today.
Perhaps the successes are to be found in rises in real income. Britain has 9 million pensioners. We heard yesterday that their rise in real income has averaged less than 1 per cent. per annum since the Government took

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power. That should be compared with a rise of 4 per cent. per annum under the Labour Government. We have 3 million people out of work, 2 million of whom have become unemployed since the Government took power. For them, the difference between what they earned and what they get in unemployment benefit can be as much as 50 per cent. Even if we take the example of wage earners—this is the Chancellor's great claim to success—we find that modest and sensible fiscal policies such as those which the right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham suggested so eloquently would have doubled take-home pay in the past four years.
Where is the success? It is to be found, perhaps, in the forecasts in the "Autumn Statement 1983". I cannot remember a year in my life when Chancellors were not saying that although we were suffering today we would have jam tomorrow. What can we say about the forecasts? I see no reason why the House shuld pay obeisance to nonsense simply because it is optimistic nonsense. It would be a sad day for the House if we were described as unpatriotic merely because we could see that the forecasts were not likely to come about and because we were prepared to tell the truth about impending long-term decline. The forecast for output is most unlikely to be achieved, because the savings ratio that has been assumed will not be achieved.

The forecast for exports is simply incredible. Exports rose by 0·5 per cent. last year, yet the document predicates a rise of 4 per cent. I heard what the Chancellor said today about the rise in world trade. I also heard the figures that he gave. I was only confirmed in my belief that the 4 per cent. is a random number which has been injected into the calculations to make implausible conclusions seem plausible.
The forecast for inflation will not be achieved either, for the simple reason that the document misunderstands the relationship between inflation and wages and the relationship between expectation and wages in this phase of the economic cycle. The entire document is predicated on two outstanding economic blunders. There might be others, but there are two which no Chancellor ought to permit. The first is that it must be the height of fiscal irresponsibility to predicate future current public expenditure plans on the basis of short-term and short-lived revenues from the sale of capital assets. It must also be the height of fiscal irresponsibility to go into the last decade of oil revenues saying that they will be used to sustain consumption. The combination of those two blunders is a guarantee that Britain faces appalling economic problems. It is guarantee of the type of economic problems on the balance of payments to which the right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham referred.
Our only hope seems to lie with what was described as the Chancellor's arrogant pomposity, as events will prick the Chancellor's bubble and reveal the perversity of his views. All we are asking for at this stage is some fiscal relaxation. When we ask for that we come up against the Chancellor's superstitions and the Prime Minister's grocer shop mentality. We are told that we cannot borrow more and that we must behave responsibly like the other advanced industrial countries whose economic performance is so much better than ours. Why is it, therefore, that the general Government deficit in 1982 was 2 per cent. of nominal gross domestic product, whereas in France it was 2·9 per cent., in Japan, 3·3 per cent., in the United
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States, 3·7 per cent. and in Germany, 4·1 per cent.? Why can all those other countries do what the British Prime Minister told the electorate our Government cannot do? Why is it responsible for those Governments to do that and yet it is irresponsible for our Government to do the same?
Right hon. and hon. Members will remember that when the Earl of Chatham formed his last Administration under George III, everything went wrong. The Earl of Chatham rushed out of London and locked himself in his bedroom. He would not even talk to the servants. Members of Parliament went to his house and banged on his door saying, "Mr. Pitt, the business of Government has to go on. Will you come back?" I assure the Chancellor that if he runs away from the House tonight and goes home sulking, no one will go banging on his door. It is universally agreed that no Chancellor at all would be better than him. He has caused great damage to our country. The Government have caused great hurt and damage to our country. That is why it behoves us all to go into the Lobby tonight to oppose this squalid autumn statement
6.50 pm
Mr. Ralph Howell: I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for St. Albans (Mr. Lilley) on his maiden speech, and I am sure that the House will look forward to hearing from him on future occasions. I add my congratulations to those of other hon. Members on the maiden speech of my hon. Friend the Member for Mid-Norfolk (Mr. Ryder). I regret that I did not have the pleasure of hearing my Member of Parliament make his speech, but I understand that it was excellent and I thank him for the kind references he made to me as the former Member for part of the area that he represents.
I welcome the fact that a major public debate on state spending and taxation will follow the autumn statement. It is high time we had such a debate and I hope that we shall consider the widest possible options and leave out nothing in our deliberations. However, I am not wildly enthusiastic about the statement, because the Government have not contained public expenditure. To say that we will stop public expenditure rising is an improvement. but we must cast our minds back to 1979 when we said that public expenditure was too high, the public sector too large and taxation too high.
The House should also remember that in 1979 it was not the previous Government who had achieved the then economic position, but the International Monetary Fund which made the economy a little more balanced than it had been previously. We must find a way of cutting waste in the public sector. The only way to get the Government off the backs of the people is to cut as much waste in the public sector as we can to accommodate tax cuts. So far we have entertained hopes of cutting waste but have got nowhere. We are sandpapering the problem, attracting all the odium for cuts and achieving nothing.
There has been much publicity about waste in the National Health Service, including reports of an £8 million redundancy forecast which turned into a £45 million payment. It is not good enough, and it means that the Government cannot control expenditure. Most waste is caused by over-manning. In the NHS today there are 700,000 more people looking after 100,000 fewer patients than in 1960. In the same period, in education, manpower has doubled from 600,000 to 1,250,000, and in local government a further 400,000 people have been employed.

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The problem is that restrictive practices are rife in the entire public sector and there are appalling losses because of theft, fraud and general waste, which does the public no good—[HON. MEMBERS: "Identify them."] I can identify them easily. The Government must look to those areas of waste, which achieve nothing, to find room for tax cuts.
For many years I have talked about the "why work" problem, which has become worse during the past 10 or 15 years. It is still getting worse, because we spend too much in the public sector. Drastic action must be taken on taxation. The Government tried to do a little about raising tax thresholds in the previous Budget, but tax thresholds must be raised even more. We must take millions of people out of tax altogether. It is a disgrace that we still tax pensioners and those who earn only half or two thirds of the national average wage.
The previous Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee, of which I had the honour to be a member, heard a great deal about a Mr. Hamilton Lowe. He was unemployed for two years before he was lucky enough to get a job with Norwich city council. Last year his gross pay was £76 a week, and after deductions and additions he took home £81·39. Now his salary has been increased by 20 per cent. to £91·57, and his net income is £78·76. That is extremely serious, and the Government and the Opposition should take note of it. The reason why the Opposition did so badly during the election was that they were constantly asking for more public expenditure, as do some of my right hon. and hon. Friends, but they did not realise the consequences. We still rely on taking billions of pounds in taxation from the low paid to sustain the present wastage in public expenditure.
If Mr. Hamilton Lowe threw in his job and registered for unemployment benefit, his total income would be £82·67, instead of his present income of £78·76; and if he and his wife both earned £4 a week, which they can without adjustment before benefits, they would have an income of £90·67. He would be nearly £12 a week better off if he did not work. That is a serious indictment, to which the Government should pay attention. The Government must cut waste in the public sector to make room for tax cuts.
I know that the Chancellor would like to do some of the things that I have suggested. In the great jungle of bureaucracy, waste and restrictive practices, my right hon. Friend must use something more than a pair of nail scissors—he needs a bulldozer to force his way through the jungle of waste and excess Government expenditure.
6.58 pm
Dr. John Marek: The hon. Member for Norfolk, North (Mr. Howell) suggested that the Chancellor should do several things. I disagreed with many of his suggestions, but it appears that he has some feeling for those who are not well off and who must pay taxes, and he urged the Chancellor to do something about it. The Chancellor said nothing about that, and on that basis the hon. Member for Norfolk, North would make a better Chancellor than the one we have.
Hon. Members will recall that in 1979 the then Leader of the Opposition, now the Prime Minister, was worried about high unemployment, which stood at 1·3 million. She called it "shameful" and promised to do something about
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it. We know what happened. There are now about 3 million unemployed, if one uses the new method of calculation, but it would be 3·25 million if the figures were compiled as they were in 1979. If everybody who wanted a job was offered one, it would show real unemployment to be well in excess of 4 million. That is a depressing commentary on the Chancellor's autumn statement, which will do nothing to lower this unacceptable level of unemployment—this unacceptable social evil. Without special Government measures, even the Chancellor's prediction of 3 per cent. growth in 1984 will not be enough. It will only scratch the surface of the problem.
In the past four and a half years, most jobs have been lost in manufacturing industry. The statement, in page 6, paragraph 1.13, says:
"Over the past 10 years there has been no pronounced trend in value or volume terms in the share of United Kingdom's manufactured exports in world trade, despite substantial short-term fluctations."
That simply is not so. There is a double graph showing the volume and value share of the United Kingdom's exports in world manufacturing. Looking at that graph, I have made a different interpretation from that of the Chancellor. There is a general decline in performance between 1970 and the end of 1973. There is a general slight improvement from there until autumn 1979, and then there is a catastrophic slump from 1979 to 1983. More interestingly, I looked at the Financial Statement and Budget Report produced earlier this year, and there, in the section on the economy, most of the graphs were the same, except for this particular one. The statement says:
"In manufacturing, the United Kingdom has lost share by volume in most years".
That statement is completely different from the one in paragraph 1.13, which says that there is "no pronounced trend." The present graph is based on a three quarter average set of figures. Has the Chancellor got a new set of scribblers, or is he trying to re-write history?
The depressing reality has been quoted before, but I shall quote it again. Paragraph 1.14 says:
"since 1976, while the domestic demand for manufactures has not changed greatly, there has been an increase of over half in the volume of imports of manufactures and a fall in domestic supply of manufactures of nearly one quarter."
That is the depressing reality spelt out in this statement. It has nothing good to say and nothing to promise us for our performance in manufacturing exports.
In a year's time, manufacturing output is estimated still to be well over 10 per cent. less than it was in 1979. For the first time we are importing more manufactured goods than we are exporting. Forecasts are that imports will continue to outstrip exports. The Chancellor expects exports to be 4 per cent., but imports are expected to be more than that at 5 per cent. Such growth as there has been has been caused primarily by consumer demand, which has been facilitated by the abolition of hire purchase controls. Imports have been sucked in, and there is nothing in this statement that promises anything different for the British people.
If the Chancellor thinks that low inflation combined with steady growth is "a winning combination," he is easily pleased. We expect more than that. We need to increase our manufacturing base and our manufacturing exports, as this is a prerequisite for bringing down unemployment. The Government could adopt the policies to do this. There would be a big dent in unemployment if they allowed local authorities to build houses, because the

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construction industry would be regenerated. The exchange rate is too high, and energy costs to industry are not as favourable as they are elsewhere. Although the Government think that public borrowing is too high, they are wrong. They are using what public borrowing there is for wrong purposes. They are paying huge sums in social security and unemployment benefit, when the aim should be to invest in British industry and get people back to work.
Public borrowing can be used for investment, to generate jobs and to provide the impetus for economic recovery. In effect, the Government are saying that the Japanese produce electrical and office equipment better and cheaper than we do, and that they should get on with it.
It looks as though the Government are saying that they are content with the United States being the sole producer of civil aircraft. They will not support the A320 project unless there is, in their terms, an overwhelming case for it. As a result, we shall not have any civil aviation projects and developments, and it will be left to Boeing and McDonnell Douglas in the United States. It does not need much thought to realise that Europe must remain in the technological forefront of the aircraft industry, and I should welcome a Government statement that they will support the A320 project.
The Government are saying that opencast mining can be done more cheaply elsewhere, where it can be more economic—whatever that may mean—so they plan to close our mines. They have decimated steel production because this Government, unlike others, will not provide cheap energy to support and protect the industry. If there is a real upturn in the economy the steel industry will not be able to supply the demand.
We have first-class railway engineering workshops. They are being closed, and orders that we could have got are being picked up by other countries in Europe. I do not need to draw comparisons between this country and France to see that we are not investing in our railway system, but when we see what the French have done for their transport infrastructure, my case is proved.
The Government are saying that shipbuilding and ship repairing can be undertaken by other countries. British Telecom has lost out with system X. It could have had orders worldwide, but it can do so no longer. The list is endless. Because of the openly proclaimed uninterest of the Conservative party, we stand no chance of recovery, even to the position of 1979.
In the Budget statement earlier this year, the Chancellor forecast a balance of payments on current account of about £1·5 billion in 1983, and higher in 1984. It is a sad reflection on the Government's policy that in the autumn statement, all that the new Chancellor can say is that there will be a rough balance. Although one cannot depend only on one set of figures, I have seen the set of figures published today, and it looks as though the Chancellor may have to revise that forecast again in the immediate future. All this is unnecessary. By adopting a different policy, with the general consent of the people, we could provide for a steadily growing economy with much lower unemployment.
Because of the Government's obsession with targets, the Government will not do anything for the industries that I have mentioned. The Chancellor is simply concerned with adding up sums and seeing whether they balance in his book. He is squandering the North sea oil money and
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other assets because of his obsession, and he is continually lowering our expectations. Because his figures do not add up, he tells us that taxation will have to be increased next year. That is in spite of increasing taxation as a percentage of GDP to an all-time high over the past four and a half years. That is contrary to what the Conservative party said in its election manifesto in 1979.
On top of that, the Chancellor has cleverly increased taxation already. As other hon. Members have said, it is disgraceful that housing benefit should be reduced so that, for each pound of extra income above the needs allowance, the Government will reduce the housing benefit by 31p instead of 21p for rent, and by 9p instead of 7p for rates. These cuts, which are inflicted on pensioners and the disabled, are disgraceful.
Although we had a debate on this subject yesterday, I make no apology for speaking about pensioners again because this needs to be said again. Last Friday, The Guardian said:
"Pensioners are also suffering from the first Conservative Government's decision to end the link between pension rises and earnings or prices, whichever is higher.
The Child Poverty Action Group calculates that this could have given an 8·7 per cent. rise for the 9·2 million pensioners. But even if a figure of 6·5 per cent. is used, a married couple is more than £179 a year worse off with a new pension rate of £54.50 a week.
The disabled suffer substantially more with a 5 per cent. cut introduced in 1980 in lieu of taxation still in force, and disabled pensioners also lose the link with earnings. Married couples have lost the equivalent of £5.80 a week.
The unemployed and families living on supplementary benefit are also worse off, despite the restoration of the 5 per cent. cut today. For the unemployed man with a wife and two children, this increase has been lost in a steady reduction in extra child allowances and also by the switch in calculating benefits. Here the loss is £4.65 a week, more than £240 a year. For a similar person on supplementary benefit, the loss is about £1.35 a week."
The Chancellor has already attacked the worse off in our society, and now he is turning on the next worse off—not those on supplementary benefit, but those just above it. The best way to attack them is to attack housing benefits—and that he has done.
I wish that the attack on ordinary people ended there, but it does not. Although the right hon. Gentleman did not announce it, gas and electricity prices are due to rise by 3 per cent. and 5 per cent., respectively. Yet those industries already make a profit. In 1982–83 the Electricity Council made a 3·2 per cent. net return on average net assets employed. For 1983–84 and 1984–85, the Electricity Council has a financial target for an average return on net assets of only 1·4 per cent. So why is there a need to increase electricity prices?
I am alarmed by the Prime Minister's statement that electricity prices provide only about 1·5 per cent. return on investment, and that a 5 per cent. return on investment is reasonable. Does that mean that the Government intend to increase electricity prices year in, year out, until they achieve a 5 per cent. return on investment?
I do not need to deal with gas prices as they have already been mentioned by other hon. Members, but if they do increase, they will be seen as a fuel tax, a regressive measure that will hit hardest those least able to absorb such an increase—those on supplementary benefit. It is no use Conservative Members saying that those people can get special heating allowances. would like to see just one Conservative Member exist on a pension with only an extra £2.05 a week towards heating. They could not do it.
Mr. David Winnick: Is it not a tragedy that so many people who are eligible for rebates, but not for supplementary benefit, do not receive a penny piece in help towards their fuel costs? During winter months they go through agony and misery trying to keep warm because they cannot afford present-day prices for gas and electricity.
Dr. Marek: My hon. Friend is right. The Government's policy is to hit the least well off, and then to pick off the next group of least well off in society.
I find the autumn statement dismal and depressing. It is concerned solely with adding up figures on a piece of paper—just like in a grocer's shop—to see whether they balance. They do not. The Government are squandering the nation's oil, selling off the nation's assets and dismantling the nation's industrial base to make the poor poorer so that the rich can preserve their privileges and standard of living. This statement continues along that road.
7.13 pm
Mr. David Howell: I join other hon. Members in congratulating my hon. Friends the Members for Mid-Norfolk (Mr. Ryder) and for St. Albans (Mr. Lilley) on their excellent maiden speeches this afternoon. They made them with great skill and aplomb, and they impressed us all.
I say with some hesitation that my hon. Friend the Member for Mid-Norfolk is right to back the idea of an open debate on the future of some of the major public expenditure programmes. I say that with hesitation because in the past great debates have been announced with a large fanfare, which have then tended to fall rather fiat. Therefore, we are naturally a little sceptical about orchestrated and organised great debates.
The debate about major public sector programmes—health, education, defence and social security—will go ahead anyway. It will be carried forward in a number of forums. There is a case for the Government contributing information to that debate to make it more organised and effective. I do not know whether such a debate should be conducted along the lines suggested by Sir Douglas Wass in one of his Reith lectures, by a revived Central Policy Review Staff, or some similar body standing rather further away from the Cabinet Office than the now defunct CPRS, or whether it should be conducted by an independent institute. Where should it be orchestrated, and how will information be brought before this House, which, we must never forget, is the centre of excellent and highly informed debate? I am not sure. It may be that some replacement of the CPRS, standing further away from the Cabinet Office, should be the institution to start the debate. I have no illusions about such a debate being needed.
It is important to bring home to those who conduct discussions on these affairs—very much between the two poles of either cutting or expanding—that underneath that argument there are common objectives. For example, on health matters the common objective—unless people are very perverse—is that the nation should have better health provision.
It is remarkable that we spend rather less per head than many of the other social market economies. We do that because over the years we have grown accustomed to the idea that all health provision must be channelled through the public sector. Resources must then be fought for along
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with all the other public demands from defence to social security and agriculture support, and so on. We should begin the debate from the base that everyone agrees that we need better health provision and that we must use our ingenuity and imagination to determine how we can harness the best of private provision in support of a high quality public service.
If we continue as we are and allow these services to grow unrestrained in the public sector, they will do immense damage to the whole shape of the Budget and create intolerable demands on the incomes of people on low wages and salaries. That is not a cause that any party would wish to support.
Although all Opposition parties are currently arguing for higher taxes in one form or another, as they understand these matters more clearly, and as they understand, for example, the consequences outlined by my hon. Friend the Member for Norfolk, North (Mr. Howell), they will recognise that we cannot continue in that way. The extra burdens imposed on low-income families by these programmes going along their present path must be changed.
I know that the autumn statement deals mainly with expenditure, but the taxation issue is at the centre of that and has been given additional impetus by my right hon. Friend's comment about the possible need for a small net addition to taxation. The comment columns of newspapers have given various reasons for the Chancellor's remarks. I prefer to believe his own account in The Times, which is that he wanted to bring home the importance that he attaches to containing public sector borrowing and the overriding importance of maintaining a posture of sound finance. He wanted to show that even tax increases would have to be considered, if the figures demand that, to safeguard and contain the public sector borrowing requirement, which he believes to be the main influence in containing new money creation and the best guide to the health of the public budget.
My right hon. Friend the Member for Worthing (Mr. Higgins) said that a number of experts and commentators are beginning to question whether the public sector borrowing requirement is such a good guide to those two aims—given the very large growth in private borrowing overshadowing the size of Government borrowing, and the confusion that inevitably arises when considering the place of assets arising from state asset disposals and privatisation. That has led some people to say that we should perhaps start again and think of other measures. However, for the moment the Chancellor seems to be sticking to the PSBR, and apparently that is what led him to talk about tax increases.
I hope that my right hon. Friend does not bring in tax increases, whatever his reason was for mentioning them. In my opinion it would be the wrong direction in which to take the economy. Psychologically it could be wrong for a number of reasons, and I suspect that my right hon. Friend would agree with me. As he himself confirmed, the PSBR or any other borrowing requirement measure that might replace it remains extraordinarily inaccurate. As he said, it is subject to a wide margin of uncertainty.
We read in the "Autumn Statement 1983", and it is not news, that the PSBR can wander and have a margin of error of up to £2 billion either way. In 1982–83, and apparently in the current year, there is a substantial overshoot. We are dealing not with science, but with an art. The control of the public sector borrowing

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requirement, or any other borrowing requirement, is an art, and it is subject to a wide margin of error. For that reason, to give any importance to a gap of £½ billion in the forecast, as the statement does, is to get things a little out of perspective. It is almost an attempt to fine tune the borrowing requirement and its influence on the monetary aggregates—a practice which was much criticised in connection with demand management in the past, and one which usually ends in tears.
So, for that somewhat technical reason, I hope that we shall hear no more discussion about tax increases of that volume in connection with the public sector borrowing requirement. The PSBR is the difference between two gigantic amounts—£147 billion, or whatever, on expenditure, and £136 billion, or whatever it will be, on receipts. That is the first reason why I hope my right hon. Friend will not consider tax increases, and why I was glad to hear the strong emphasis that he placed today on his ambition for us to continue to be a tax cutting and tax reforming Government.
There are other reasons, of which the most important—I am always surprised that the Opposition do not support it more strongly—is that higher taxation kills enterprise. It delays the creation and emergence of the myriad new firms and the tens of thousands of new employees in the coming year. It delays the emergence of new jobs and it has the effect on work incentives. We have had evidence of that in our debate today, and not a day passes without evidence—some of it, admittedly, anecdotal, but some of it in hard figures—that a high tax environment, such as we still have in this country, is a disincentive to people going to work, and promotes unemployment. Those are obvious reasons why anyone hearing suggestions that we might be embarking on a further move towards higher taxation must question whether it will help our objectives.
However, I have even deeper reasons for questioning tax increases. My right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer and others argue that the purpose of having to grit one's teeth and consider tax increases is monetary prudence, because that would cut the deficit in the absence of any further successes on the public expenditure side. I wonder, with the tax levels that we have now reached and the shape of the public budget, whether that is true, and whether tax increases will do what the people who argue for them believe they will achieve. I question whether they will cut the deficit in all cases. I say that for a number of reasons. Taxes are a cost imposed by the Government on incomes, or indirectly on goods, and on economic activity. In that way they raise costs. That may not concern the Government if those costs are not reflected in prices. People simply lose their profits, go out of business, do not go into business, or lose their jobs. However, as we see in the "Autumn Statement 1983", there is an important part of the Budget that is uncontrollable. Indeed, it is open-ended. It is a feature of modern budgets in the Western world. It is a growing element in those budgets, and it arises from open-ended programmes.
In these open-ended programmes the cost increases caused by tax increases are reflected in more demands on public spending. Thus it is a circular process, whereby the tax increases which a Government may unwillingly impose to reduce the deficit produce consequent increases in public spending, and thereby enlarge rather than reduce the deficit. There is an excellent example in the statement—the £422 million of additional agriculture support. I
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am sure that my right hon. Friend did not plan that. I am sure that that was not foreseen or intended. However, it happened, and consequent adjustments have to be made in other parts of the Budget to accommodate that unwelcome, additional, open-ended, and unforeseen extra Government expenditure.
Inevitably, the pressure falls on those parts of the Budget which are most controllable and most easily cut. Over the years, we see where the cuts have occurred—in capital programmes, capital fixed investments, and infrastructure. Today my right hon. Friend pointed to trends that have reversed some of the more disastrous tendencies of past years in reducing the element of fixed capital investment in overall Government spending. However, I think it is generally recognised that the trend to reverse that tendency needs a sharp push, and there must be more powerful expenditure on infrastructure. If we can use ingenuity and mobilise more private funds, or make more intelligent progress in the grey area of projects which are neither purely public nor ones that can be commercially financed, but which seem to require a mixture of limited Government guarantee, that would be all to the good. Important progress could be made in that way.
So that is one reason why increased taxation may not be the way to cut deficits, even though the textbooks say that it is.
If higher taxation leads, as I believe it does, to fewer people going into jobs, and enterprises not being born or not surviving, more people are unemployed and there is a bigger burden on public spending through unemployment. Costs there, too, increase rather than reduce the deficit.
Finally there is the point, which has been argued—in perhaps too extreme a manner by the American supply siders—that not all tax increases produce the extra revenue that the textbooks say, and that the ready reckoner type of thinking, as at the back of the statement, does not always work. Some tax increases may fail to produce extra revenue, just as certain tax decreases in fact increase revenue. That is another reason why we should look very carefully at the school of thought which directly relates taxation to reducing deficits.
In short, I am saying that higher taxes are not necessarily a financial rock. They are a slippery slope. I believe that we as a Government and a party are right to adhere to our instincts to press on towards lower taxes in this country. That, along with lower inflation and lower interest rates, is the fundamental element in the job-creating machine. I am not arguing—I hope that I do not leave that impression with my right hon. Friend and others—that in the first year of the new Parliament we should expect major tax cuts of the type that would ease the problems of lower wage and salary earners. That is not within reach at the moment. But we should start with some job-creating tax cuts that are available.
There are examples, and I shall give a classic one. I declare an interest here because I advise an organisation that would benefit from it. If the Chancellor were able to unscramble the stamp duty, I bet that the effect in terms of lost revenue would not emerge. At the same time, if the stamp duty in shares remains at the present level and a large amount of business is siphoned off to New York., the consequent revenue would drop very quickly. That is a good example of how increasing a tax would produce less revenue and reducing it might well produce more revenue.

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That is an example of what I believe should be an unfolding strategy of tax reform and reduction. There is no opportunity and no room for manoeuvre to get big tax cuts in place early on, but we should allow the strategy to unfold.
I have concentrated unapologetically on tax cuts. I know that at the moment the subject of tax cuts is the most partisan of issues. The Labour party and the centre parties—the SDP and the Liberals—do not mention tax cuts in their amendments and, I think, still believe that high taxes are right and desirable. I hope that our debate today will help to bring home to them not only that higher taxes hurt those whose votes they failed to get at the election, but are the single most damaging factor that can prevent the emergence of the thousands of new businesses through the market economy that will produce the jobs of the future.
The centre parties—not the Labour party—are now beginning to write articles and speeches to that effect—there are no more speeches today because they are not here—and have discovered rather late in the day the market economy, free enterprise and the virtues of incentives. One reads this in newspapers and in learned magazines. So far they are still adhering to their view that people should pay more taxes but even on that they may in due course be converted. So the wisdom and views that have lain at the centre of Conservative policy, and which we must now implement, may even spread to our opponents as well.
7.32 pm
Mr. Willie W. Hamilton: The House will recall that the right hon. Member for Guildford (Mr. Howell) was at one time the Secretary of State for Transport. He faced demands from the Opposition Benches for increased capital investment in British Rail. The right hon. Gentleman will recall the corny answers that he gave when he was a Minister. He resolutely refused to consider the increased electrification of British Rail. I agree entirely with him and the CBI that unless we have a modernised infrastructure for our transport system, our telecommunications system and so on, we will not achieve the growth on which the welfare state and other public services depend. I hope that the right hon. Gentleman will be consistent and that, with the CBI and others, he will keep plugging the need for more capital investment in the infrastructure on which our economy depends.
Mr. David Howell: The House will recall that I was able to authorise a 17 per cent. increase over 1979 levels in motorway repair and construction. While it is true that railway investment—although I authorised a number of projects—was not as high as British Rail sought, it is not true that I did not consider the electrification projects. I merely asked that they should be robustly worked out so that in due course they could be authorised.
Mr. Hamilton: The right hon. Gentleman may be satisfied with his alibi, but the fact remains that he resisted all pressures from outside and inside the House to invest in the future of British Rail to the extent that the service requires.
The right hon. Gentleman spoke about the incentives of lower taxation. That sentiment has been expressed in the House as though it were an established proven fact. I remember the late Selwyn Lloyd making similar
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pronouncements in the House, to the effect that if only we were to remove the tax burden, particularly from the higher echelons of taxpayers, everything would be all right. It does not apply at the other end apparently, because all the facts show that the burden of taxation on lower income groups has increased to a far greater extent than it has on those at the top. There is not a shred of evidence to show that reduced taxation automatically increases incentives to work harder, to produce more and to work more efficiently. On the contrary, the argument might be put the other way. The more taxation that is imposed, the more desperately hard people work to keep in the same position. That is the Government's argument at the lower end of the income scale in this country.
There has never been an example of a major statement by a Chancellor meeting such universal condemnation—right across the board and right across the political spectrum. The CBI, the TUC and the media all agree that it is a hopeless statement. It is either complacent or ignorant, or a mixture of both. In any event, it will not fulfil the expectations on inflation or on anything else that was forecast in the statement.
We all know that the background to the statement was the fight, the quarrel, the struggle, in Cabinet about public expenditure cuts. The Chancellor did not get all that he wanted. That is why he said that if he did not get all that he wanted, which meant virtually dismantling the welfare state, there would have to be tax increases in his forthcoming Budget. The Chancellor wrote in a Sunday newspaper that, of the seven top industrialised nations, Britain was the most heavily taxed, except for France. That is simply not true. Either the Chancellor was deliberately misleading the British public, or he did not know the facts. According to the recent OECD figures, the United Kingdom tax take in 1981 was 43·4 per cent. of the gross national product, compared with France 46·1 per cent. and Germany 44·6 per cent. Our percentage has gone up since those figures were made available. Those economies are not doing any worse than ours, and in some ways have done much better over the past few years. Other smaller countries have greater tax burdens—for example, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Holland, Norway and Sweden—yet in many ways their economic performance is superior to ours.
The total outlay of our Government in 1981 represented more than 40 per cent. of the national income, which is lower than West Germany, France, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Holland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Ireland. It is not true that we are suffering from an undue burden of taxation compared with large numbers of our competitors. In fact, public expenditure in this country is lower than anywhere else in the EC, except Greece, so let us have no more of the nonsense about the intolerable and disincentive nature of the burden of taxation.
If the Chancellor was wrong about that, so, too, was the Prime Minister in declaring at the Lord Mayor's banquet a few days ago that the number of people in work had begun to increase again. I looked up the figures. Today at Question Time the Chief Secretary said the same. He said that he agreed with the Prime Minister that the numbers in work were increasing. I put the same question to the Leader of the House, who was deputising for the Prime Minister at Question Time today, and he also agreed. Therefore, three Ministers at the top say that the number of people in work is increasing.

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What are the facts? How did the Prime Minister come to make that assumption? I have a copy of the October issue of the Employment Gazette, which gives official Government figures. It states:
"Total United Kingdom employees in employment fell by 8,000 (seasonally adjusted) in the second quarter of the year."
The figures on page S8 are as follows. In June 1980, the total number of people employed in Great Britain was 22,356,000. In June 1981 the figure was 21,232,000, in June 1982 it was 20,651,000. and in June 1983 it was 20,179,000. Therefore, between June 1980 and June 1983, the numbers in employment have gone down by about 2,200,000. That is a measure of the Government's success.
The article in the Employment Gazette states that in the year up to 6 June 1983
"total employment in Great Britain fell by 1·5 per cent. (312,000 employees), with decreases in all regions except East Anglia."
There was a 4 per cent. decrease in the northern region—42,000 employees—and a decrease of over 2·5 per cent. in the west midlands—52,000 employees.
There is no evidence that there are more people in work now as a direct consequence of the Government's policy, yet three Ministers—two of them today—in the face of evidence produced by their Departments, say that the contrary is true. Either they are deceiving the House or they are ignorant of the facts that the Departments are producing.
I shall give an example of misleading information from Government Departments. Recently I wrote to the Scottish Office asking for the number of small businesses that have closed down in Scotland in the past five years. The Scottish Office replied, saying that it was too expensive to get all those figures. I went immediately to the Library, and within 48 hours I got the figures. Who is deceiving whom? The figures for Scotland are as follows. In the six months from June to December 1979 there were 145 bankruptcies of small businesses. In December 1980 there were 379. In 1981 there were 438, in 1982 there were 503, and from January to June 1983 there were 305. The total in Great Britain from June 1979 to June 1983 was 36,984—about 570 per month. That means that each working day since the Government took office in May 1979 there have been 24 or 25 bankruptcies of large and small businesses. That is a measure of the success that the Government are claiming for their policies. The separate figures for Scotland are less than that, as one might expect with a smaller population. It works out at about two or three bankruptcies every working day since the Government came to office.
The Chancellor said that he wanted to have a debate on priorities in public expenditure. We know that the essence of the debate is how much we spend on health, defence and and education. As long as the total national product is not increasing, the more we spend on one thing, the less we can spend on another.
I shall quote from the Glasgow Herald editorial on 22 November. That newspaper, which is in no way sympathetic to the Labour party, said:
"Eighteen months after the hostilities it is becoming exceedingly hard to see how the present policy of fortress Falklands can be sustained indefinitely. The Chancellor has invited debate on the future of the country's public expenditure priorities, and it is difficult to see how a Government that is so set against borrowing and so explicitly committed to preserving at least the framework of the Welfare State can continue to insist on such costly and politically dubious projects as fortress Falklands and Trident."
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Some months ago a Select Committee went into the Falklands issue in depth. It assessed that the total additional cost of the Falklands campaign, including replacement of equipment and ships or aircraft destroyed, would amount to about £2,000 million. We should remember that the population of the Falklands is about 1,800 people. We are to spend £2,000 million of our wealth, which is supposed to be in short supply, on those people. We are telling health authorities all over Britain to cut the numbers of nurses and staff, to close hospitals and wards and to reduce the numbers of beds, yet we can disperse money on such a project, when everyone knows, or should know, that sooner or later the Falklands will fall under the control of Argentina. There is nothing more certain than that. We are in a cul de sac. The money is going down the drain. The Government said that the cost of maintaining the military garrison for 1,800 folks, not more, will be about £250 million a year. The Select Committee said that was a gross underestimate and that the figure was nearer £500 million a year.
That is why my hon. Friends and I get worked up. Every day of the week, week in, and week out, we receive complaints from poor people, those eking out an existence on supplementary benefit or living on low pensions or low wages. Many people are waiting, not knowing when they will get hospital beds. Meanwhile, hospital beds and wards are closing and nurses do not know whether they will get jobs when they have completed their training. We had an example of that the other day from Hartlepool
The Government are responsible for those uncivilised and indefensible priorities. The Chancellor says, "Everything is on course. We are going to be great. The success that we have created in the last four years will be repeated in the next four years." But we wonder when the people of the nation will get a taste of that success. There is no evidence in my constituency that the Government have been anything but an unmitigated disaster.
7.51 pm
Mr. Peter Hordern: As the hon. Member for Fife, Central (Mr. Hamilton) said, the Chancellor's autumn statement has had a mixed reception. However, the criticisms have been so varied and wide that I am inclined to believe that my right hon. Friend must have got it about right. In one respect certainly he has it right, and that is the achievement of himself and his predecessor, now the Foreign Secretary, in reducing the rate of inflation. That has been an invaluable achievement.
I also approve of the Government's efforts to restrain public expenditure. It should be noted, however, that all the talk so far in the debate has been about cutting public expenditure at every level. In fact, public expenditure is due to grow again next year at a rate somewhat higher than the rate of inflation.
Like many of my hon. Friends, I regret that capital expenditure within the whole of the public sector is as low as it is, and the Government must give more attention to that. But I applaud the fact that the Chancellor has not sought to fudge the figures. The contingency allowance is as high as it has ever been—that is realistic—and no credit is given for shortfall, which is the amount that Departments do not spend.
The Chancellor is not at his happiest when making economic forecasts. Indeed, he would probably rather not make any, and it is only because the Industry Act compels him to do so that he has done so now, as he has on previous

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occasions. With all his reluctance, if he must make an economic forecast, it is a characteristic of his to pick the best aspects of it, and I have certain points to raise which should keep these aspects in perspective.
My right hon. Friend's ambition is to have a period of stable prices. He has made no secret of the fact that by that he means a lower rate of inflation than now exists. Judging from the money supply figures, I do not think that that is likely to occur. Recently my right hon. Friend has brought into being a new form of monetary measurement known as MO. It is a very narrow form of measurement by which he has sought to show that there is some relationship between the movement of this narrow measure of money and the course of inflation two years afterwards.
Although that may have been true—in the relationship between that narrow measure of money and the rate of inflation—of the last few years, if my right hon. Friend carries his researches back further he will find that there is no such relationship. It is only common sense that in times of high interest rates, people tend not to hold their money in notes and coins—that is the definition of this narrow money supply—but in bank deposits, and the level of bank deposits, the level of lending, is now at a very advanced rate and inconsistent with a lower rate of inflation than now exists. I think that it is consistent—I hope it is—with the official forecasts. I do not attach as much importance to arithmetical precision as I used to on these matters, but I do not think that it is consistent with a nil or nearly nil rate of inflation, and I hope that the Government do not try to persuade people that it is.
Another important factor is that the broad measure of the money supply is being affected in other ways. It is not as high as it would otherwise be if it were not for the fact that the Government are borrowing much more money than they need. They are doing that so as to allow private firms to issue commercial bills, which do not show up in the money supply. The effect of that is that the money supply figures on the broad aggregate would be higher than they now are. It also means that interest rates are much higher than they otherwise would be if the Government were not borrowing much more than they need to borrow. The Government must bear that factor in mind because interest rates are still far too high and firms cannot borrow on long-term rates. The Government must bear that in mind, too.
It is essential in all this that the price level does not rise more than is absolutely necessary, and that brings me to the Chancellor's decision to increase gas and electricity prices. There is a vast difference between expecting greater efficiency from the gas and electricity industries and demanding a higher price. The distinction between doing that and insisting on higher price increases is extraordinary, and I cannot help but believe that it, too, must be self-defeating.
I can see that there is a case for putting up the price of gas or demanding greater efficiency as we come to use stocks from the new gasfields, compared with the old. But if that argument applies, then the contrary argument must apply to electricity, when there are substantial stocks of coal throughout the country and enormous reserves of coal as well. On that analogy, the price of electricity should be going down, not up.
Has my right hon. Friend thought about the effect of the increase in the price of electricity not just on industry
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prices—naturally, it will have an effect there—but on the extra cost of pensions and supplementary benefits? May we be told exactly what the public expenditure implications are of those increases? I hope that in future, when this policy comes to be reconsidered, no attempt will be made to insist on a price increase of a certain margin. By all means get a higher return from those nationalised industries and set them targets—that is what they expect—but the imposition of a flat price increase will do more harm than good.
The performance of the "Star Chamber" has had some unexpected consequences, so much so that I understand that the Secretary of State for Social Services was not even aware, if The Times is correct, of what the effect of the increased rents on council house tenants would be. This method of procedure—the gathering in the autumn of Ministers, telling them that they must impose certain cuts—cannot be beneficial. If anybody is to perform the task, my noble Friend Lord Whitelaw is better than anyone else to do it. He was, with respect to my right hon. Friend the Member for Old Bexley and Sidcup (Mr. Heath) about the best Chief Whip I have ever known, although I was not in the House when my right hon. Friend held that position.
If anyone can persuade people to do what they would not in their ordinary judgment do, it is my noble Friend Lord Whitelaw. Happily, he is unencumbered with economic theory, but I cannot help but wonder if this is the best way to proceed. Are we likely to control expenditure as opposed to cutting it in this way? Are the thousand cuts in public expenditure the best way to proceed annually?
As the House may know, I have long taken an interest in the National Health Service and its administration. If we examine over the past 30 years the headlong recruitment that has been made in the Health Service year after year, and especially in administration, I find it astonishing that not one health Minister ever sought to discover how many people were employed in the Health Service or what they did. That is a disgrace. I am afraid that it is endemic in the entire public sector.
I appreciate how difficult it must be to set clear objectives, but if we do not set clear objectives the Government are quite unable to excercise control either of numbers or resources. Without clear policy objectives nothing will be achieved except drift—and purposeless activity.
Hon. Members who have been in the House for a year or two appreciate the distinction between Ministers who direct and run their Departments as opposed to those who preside over them.
If I were asked to state the Government's objectives, I would say that they are, to bring down the rate of inflation, to privatise some public sector assets and to have a massive training programme for the young. Those are admirable objectives, but they are not in themselves sufficient.
We must ask other questions. How will we provide for the rapidly growing number of very elderly people in the next 20 years? How will we meet the cost of expensive medical equipment, and further scientific advance in medicine and drugs? How will we meet the cost of the extraordinarily expensive defence equipment year after year? How will we finance the state occupational pension scheme? How will we replace the loss of oil revenue? I

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wonder whether these important questions are being considered carefully or whether a strategy exists or is being formulated.
The public expenditure programme is too short in its time scale. I appreciate that three years is a long time when dealing with practical projections of programmes and resources. Since we are dealing with rolling programmes which follow on year after year, no thought is given to whether, in the prevailing circumstances, the work of a Department needs to be done differently or at all, or whether tax cuts can take the place of public expenditure. Still less is the work of a Department measured against the priorities and challenges of the next decade. I cannot but think that the shape of Departments and their work should reflect the challenge of the future rather than the programmes of the past.
It seems as though the Chancellor and the Chief Secretary to the Treasury are like men beleaguered by spending Ministers. Is it not time to create a new office, attached perhaps to the Cabinet Office, charged with formulating the demands for public expenditure for the next decade, examining the operations of the Departments in the light of those demands, recommending policies that seem to meet those demands, outlining the consequences if they are not met and presenting such policies and consequences for decision by the Cabinet? Once such policies had been discussed, and either accepted or rejected, the priorities would be agreed by the entire Cabinet and it would then be for Ministers to implement the decisions.
Moreover, the House and the country could be informed as soon as possible about these plans and the reasons for them. It would be clear to the country that the Government were acting in the interests of the whole nation. It should follow from that that the public service would have clear objectives which would improve morale and the public would feel engaged in a national effort. After all, is it not strange that a "Star Chamber" exists to carry through short-term cuts among all Departments, but that no comparable body exists to consider the future?
It seems to me that the creation of such an office, the fact that Government policy would be based on knowledge, the selection of priorities and consent to implement and publish them openly might create what would be seen as a national Government and deserve to be supported by the nation.
8.7 pm
Mr. Mark Fisher: The Chancellor of the Exchequer, in introducing his autumn statement last Thursday, ended with the words:
"we are now enjoying low inflation combined with steady growth. This is a winning combination."—[Official Report, 17 November 1983; Vol. 48, c. 996.] What amazing complacency. I must tell the Chancellor of the Exchequer that when talking last weekend to some of the 25,000 pottery workers in Stoke-on-Trent who had lost their jobs during the period of the Conservative Government, I found that outside of his private office and economic fantasies there was a low level of enjoyment. It would be fair to say that the Government's economic policy is viewed with despair and depression. It is proving to be a total disaster for the people of this country and for our manufacturing industry'. It is causing real suffering and real hardship to millions of people.
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When the Chancellor is juggling with his figures and graphs and congratulating himself on his so-called achievements, he would do well to remember the real life of people and their chances of getting a job—not only the 3 million men and women who are out of work, 1 million of whom have been out of work for more than 52 weeks, and the despair that that brings to their lives, but, most particularly, the thousands of young people who have left school and know, because they are far too intelligent not to, that the economy as run by the Chancellor and the Government offers them no hope of getting a real job. Those people are not impressed by the Chancellor's protestations that his medium-term financial strategy is working.
Let us examine the "Autumn Statement 1983" bearing in mind the Chancellor's claims of low inflation and steady growth. We must first examine growth and output. The Chancellor said that the United Kingdom's output was forecast to rise by a further 3 per cent. in 1984. He failed to explain what factors would cause it to rise and on what assumptions that assertion was based. Furthermore, he did not make it clear to the House or the country that even if he achieved that growth it would merely maintain the present disastrous level of unemployment. That is the measure of the right hon. Gentleman's failure. That level is totally unacceptable to the Opposition.
Even the modest growth that the right hon. Gentleman expects will not be led by the consumer or by home demand. If the growth will not be led in that way, presumably the Chancellor sees it being led by the company sector. If so, we must presumably regard it as being led either by stocks or by investment. Stocks in many industries are already high and there is no real sign of investment growth. Indeed, investment as a proportion of gross national product is lower than at any time in the history of this island since 1918. That is an appalling record. If there is no growth in consumer demand, why on earth should companies expand output? There can be no reason whatever for doing so.
The truth is that real disposable income is hardly rising at all and consumption is virtually stagnant. That position is bound to affect next year's GDP, all of which supports the view of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, despite the manner in which it was dismissed in such flippant terms by the Chancellor this afternoon. It supports the institute's view that a 2 per cent. growth figure is far more realistic in the light of the Government's present policies. That is far too little growth. We must get some activity into the economy.
In short, the Chancellor of the Exchequer is confused about output. He did not even attempt to provide any evidence in his autumn statement for the growth figure that he gives for output next year. It is the same story everywhere. The autumn statement refers to a world recovery. World output certainly rose in the first half of 1983. However, the Chancellor of the Exchequer did not explain that world recovery—small though it is—is having hardly any impact on the economy of this country or on that of other EC countries. Admittedly there are opportunities for some United Kingdom exporting companies in the rest of the world, but that is offset by the fact that, as the Government do not have any policy on imports, Britain acts as a magnet, and is fair game for foreign exporters to Britain.
That is why this year's short-lived and totally artificial little election boomlet scarcely benefited United Kingdom

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manufacturing industry. Recently, the Chief Secretary admitted on television that he was worried about a balance of payments crisis. He obviously knew about this month's figures. Conservative Members have rightly said that we should not read too much into a single month's figures. However, the figures for a whole year make very sober reading. The balance of trade deficit on total manufactured goods in the first quarter of this year amounted to £630 million. In the second quarter of this year there was a marginal improvement and the deficit was £592 million. Therefore, this year's deficit on manufactured goods—as I mentioned in a supplementary question earlier today—is likely to be £2·5 billion.
The non-oil total trade figures are even more horrific. They were in surplus throughout the 1970s, until 1979. Since then the non-oil total trade figures have been in deficit. In 1982 the deficit on non-oil total trade was £3,297 million. This year it will be more than twice that—£8,800 million. What a horrific set of figures! The Chancellor of the Exchequer's response to that—in that he ignored it—was totally inadequate. Those figures are devastating for the future of Britain's manufacturing industry.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer puts his faith in a growth in exports, but where does he get that idea from? Who has he been talking to? He cannot have been talking to manufacturing industry. The CBI could have told him that there will not be a growth in exports next year. Indeed, it has already told him just that. So presumably he is relying on an oil-led export recovery. However, the oil figures do not support that. Although our oil exports amount to £9·5 billion, we still have £3·5 billion of oil imports. Therefore, our total net balance on oil is a credit of only £6 billion. If that is offset against the non-oil total trade figures of nearly £9 billion, one sees the measure of the problem. The Chancellor of the Exchequer is juggling with the same oil that is sustaining an exchange rate which many people believe is as much as 20 per cent. artificially over-valued against non-dollar currencies. That is making the situation very difficult for exports, and in some cases it is virtually impossible to compete in foreign markets.
The truth about exports and the trading figures is that, to put it politely, the Chancellor is deeply confused. It is not just a disagreement about figures with lots of noughts on the end. We are talking about the real economy. Unless those manufacturing industries can sustain growth, we shall not have a real economy. As has been said several times today, the oil boom is peaking and declining. Let us look forward 15 years to a time when we are not a serious oil exporter. What sort of future is there on those figures—whoever is in control—for our non-oil manufacturing industries?
We are looking at a horrific situation, yet the Chancellor of the Exchequer is smug about it. He does not address himself to the problem that he is administering an economy that is witnessing the withering away and collapse of our manufacturing industry. When that has gone we shall have almost nothing and will become an offshore servicing island. That is the measure of the Government's failure. In his autumn statement the Chancellor failed to face that. Instead, he clings desperately to what he considers to be his one achievement—the Government's control of inflation. That is his one success, and even that has many question marks over it.
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The first question mark is that the cost of achieving that success is astronomically high. Since 1979, every 1 per cent. drop in the long-term rate of inflation has resulted in the loss of an extra 250,000 jobs. What a disaster and wrecking of people's lives.
The second question mark is the Chancellor of the Exchequer's obsession with a further reduction in the rate of inflation. His pursuit of the fantasy of zero inflation is not only in our view unnecessary and harmful to the prospects of employment, but will hinder his management of the economy in his own terms. Ironically, a pursuit of zero inflation could make it more difficult for the right hon. Gentleman to facilitate the changes in relative wages and prices that are necessary in a market economy.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, in his single-minded obsession, continues with his policies and his obsession about cutting public expenditure, so driving any hope of growth, investment, orders or jobs into the ground. Industry and the people of this country are crying out for increased capital investment. All hon. Members know that, because when they return to their constituencies they are told that week after week. They know that there are capital investment projects in their constituencies that would greatly benefit their communities. Hon. Members know that, but they do not relate what they learn between Friday and Monday to the Chancellor of the Exchequer's performance.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer is obsessed with trying to cut the public sector borrowing requirement. I say "trying to" because he has been unsuccessful and it is a vain attempt on his part. As the right hon. Gentleman admitted this afternoon, the previous Chancellor in 1982–83 forecast a PSBR of £7·5 billion. However, the outturn was a PSBR of £9 billion. That was just thrown away by the Chancellor. He was prepared to concede that. However, that is a 20 per cent. error in forecasting.
That would be extremely worrying but for the fact that although the right hon. Gentleman would not admit it, the PSBR is not a very good definition of real budget deficit as a measure of the effect of economic policy on home demand. That is vital to any form of growth. It is not a very good definition, because the PSBR includes—and I am not sure that the Chancellor appreciates this—Government asset sales.
In the PSBR figures those sales are seen to cut the PSBR, but in fact they have no real effect on demand at all. If the Chancellor understands that, including those sales is a real fiddle. However, if he does not understand it he is deluding himself in his obsession with the PSBR. The fact that the PSBR includes them, and that the right hon. Gentleman does not appear to appreciate it, was not a problem before, because previous Governments did not seek to sell off their valuable public assets, so it was not a factor in calculating the PSBR. With asset sales about to play a growing and major role in the Government's budgeting the PSBR will, inevitably, increasingly lose touch with the real world. The only people who appear to have been fooled are the Chancellor and his followers.
The Chancellor is desperately following a road which he claims will lead to price stability. To fulfil that aim he has seen fit in his autumn statement to prey on anything that moves in the public sector.
Hon. Members have talked a great deal about housing benefit. The autumn statement referred to

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"reductions in the coverage of help with housing costs, particularly housing benefit."—[Official Report, 17 November 1983; Vol. 48, c. 996.]
That shows an amazing mastery of language. What does a "coverage of help" mean? I do not understand words like that, but it is only too easy to understand what they mean to real people. During the next few days, when right hon. and hon. Members return to their constituencies and open their constituency mail, they will find out what it means. The Chancellor, by knocking £180 million in a full year off the rental element and £50 million off the rate element of housing benefit, will affect 2·5 million households. Half a million households will lose their housing benefit altogether.
The Chancellor and the Secretary of State for Health and Social Security have given a vague impression that only the better-off people—those who can afford it—will lose a little off the margins of their income. Is a definition of "better off' a family on 72 per cent. of average earnings? Such families may be lucky to be in work, but no one can say that 72 per cent. of average earnings means that they are better off. If the rent and rates of such families are 30 per cent. above the average, they will be £5·25 a week worse off. Are they the lucky ones? Such households will soon experience the reality of the Government's economic policies, and right hon. and hon. Members will find that out in their constituency mail, because they will be inundated with complaints, worries and pleas for help.
My hon. Friend the Member for Pontypridd (Mr. John), in a superb speech, said that people did not understand housing benefit. He was referring to the technical complexities of the benefit. Hon. Members should return to their constituencies and talk to the rating departments and town clerks who must administer this benefit and who have been forced again to change the system. It will be extremely expensive in overtime costs to adapt the computers to cope with new demands when they have only just learnt how to cope with the first system.
Officials in my constituency and, I believe, in others, are still having teething problems. People may not understand the technical complexities of housing benefit, but they will certainly understand them when their housing benefit is cut and they cannot find out why. They will attribute that to the Chancellor's policy. The measure will cause hardship this winter to people in every constituency.
The statement does not specifically mention gas and electricity prices, but it is widely believed that they will increase. It does not seem to matter that such increases contradict the policies and the commercial advice of the chairmen of those industries. It does not matter that the gas industry last year made £663 million profit. Nor does it matter that these increases contradict the Government's philosophy, which, in theory, is to allow nationalised industries to operate in response to consumer demands in the realities of the market place. There would be no price increase in the market place in industries that were creating such profits. This is a good case for a price cut.
The Chancellor has said that he needs the money to balance his books and that he will have a gas tax. This tax is not only regressive, because it hits the old, the disabled, the weak and those on low incomes far harder than it hurts any hon. Member, but is self-destructive because, inevitably, it will hit industry. It will certainly hit the pottery industry in my constituency, where most kilns are fired by gas. It will increase unit costs and make industry
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less competitive at a time when the Chancellor claims that he is seeking more money to make industry more competitive. This tax is not only vicious, but incredibly stupid.
My right hon. Friend the Member for Birmingham, Sparkbrook (Mr. Hattersley) pointed out in his opening address that the proportion of national income paid in tax has risen from 39·6 per cent. in 1979 to 45·7 per cent. in 1982. It matters not that the Government's tax take keeps going up. They are determined to take that regressive and self-destructive tax from the gas users. That is a terrible shame and something about which Conservative Members ought to be extremely concerned.
It is on such arbitrary and ill-considered actions that the Chancellor has financed his recession. He is driving us further into recession by those actions and his amazing inability to distinguish between capital and revenue expenditure. He will use the capital receipts from the sale of publicly owned assets, such as British Telecom, to underpin the revenue implications of his policies. Last week, in a question on the autumn statement the right hon. Member for Surrey, South-West (Mr. Macmillan) in a telling phrase that should ring a bell at least with the Prime Minister because it is a domestic image, said:
"We shall be selling the furniture to pay for the food".—[Official Report, 17 November 1983, Vol. 48, c. 1000.]
What greater stupidity could there be in people's personal lives and in the Chancellor's management of the economy.
It is interesting—nay, worrying—that in his autumn statement the Chancellor attributes only £1·9 billion to the sale of Government assets. The sale of BT this year is intended to raise £4 billion. I hope that the Chief Secretary will explain today whether that sale is to be further discounted by means as yet undecided because the Government are so anxious to sell the shares, so that instead of £4 billion the sale will raise only £1·9 billion, or whether only part of the 51 per cent. shareholding will be disposed of in the next financial year. The Chief Secretary must clarify the Government's intention now.
The autumn statement ignores the implications of the Chancellor's own policy. Cuts in public expenditure damage private industry as much as anything else. Private industry relies heavily on the public sector for subcontracts. Cuts in the PSBR strangle rather than strengthen the economy. Productivity and unit costs are not just crude reflections of a low-wage policy. They are far more complex matters which are significantly affected by design research, the price of raw materials, development costs and especially capital investment.
The Chancellor ignores all those inevitable implications of his policy. Most crucially, he fails to recognise the fatal flaw at the heart of his strategy, which is that cuts lead to reduced economic activity and thus to reduced Government expenditure and, as inevitably as night follows day, to further and further cuts. The Chancellor is determined to draw us even further into that declining cycle and it can cause only havoc and misery. That is the burden, in every sense of the word, of the Chancellor's autumn statement. His policies of economic stagnation will lead, as he says himself, to some net increase in taxes in next year's Budget—and thus to less consumer demand, less savings, less investment, less economic activity and less economic prosperity. They can never lead to real growth and recovery.
The Chancellor's autumn statement forecasts a winter of economic immobility because the Government are more

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interested in pursuing their own financial mirages than in coming out into the real world where companies are going bankrupt because of collapsing order books, although in many cases their products are well made and competitively priced. The real world is the one in which people are being made redundant when industry is crying out for their skills. It is the one in which old people this winter will sit beside unlit gas fires although they want and need heat because they cannot afford to turn the gas fire on. The real world is the one in which millions live in unmodernised and inadequate housing while 250,000 construction workers stand idle in the dole queue, paid by the Government not to build houses. That is the real world and those are the real problems to which the Chancellor's autumn statement fails to address itself.
Not once in his statement, in his introduction last week or in his speech today did the Chancellor mention the implications of his economic policy for real people. That is the measure of his failure and the Government's failure, and that is why the Opposition utterly oppose the autumn statement.
Several Hon. Members rose——
Mr. Deputy Speaker (Mr. Paul Dean): Order. Before calling the next hon. Member, I remind the House that many others wish to speak and have been in the Chamber for a long time. Long speeches mean that more hon. Members will be disappointed.
8.31 pm
Mr. John Maples: The hon. Member for Stoke-on-Trent, Central (Mr. Fisher) referred to the comment of my right hon. Friend the Chancellor in his autumn statement that the British economy was now characterised by a winning combination of rising growth and falling inflation. I am surprised that the hon. Gentleman did not find time in his wide-ranging diatribe to give at least a grudging welcome to those two characteristics. Indeed, I am not sure that I recognised the economy that he described. For all that is wrong with the British economy, it has started to grow and inflation is now at a level that no hon. Member would have predicted two or three years ago. That is indeed a winning combination. If it is maintained and inflation falls still further, we shall have succeeded in achieving the non-inflationary growth that has eluded us for so long.
Both elements—growth and inflation—are extremely fragile. The primary tactics of economic policy in the next few months must therefore be to foster the recovery in output while attempting to push inflation even lower. In this phase, the pursuit of a lower public sector borrowing requirement should, if necessary, take second place or we shall risk further recession and a setback on the road to economic recovery. The virtuous circle that we seek consists of low inflation, low interest rates, moderate wage claims and greater competitiveness because only greater competitiveness can lead to expanding markets, increased output and more jobs. I wish to consider one highly important factor in the context of both growth and inflation—industrial costs. In this area, the Government could do a great deal to foster their winning combination by helping growth to go on and inflation to come down.
It is clear to me that the way to lower inflation and sustained growth lies in productivity and competitiveness
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and not in a massive increase in demand. The autumn statement predicts a stable pound. If that turns out to be right, gains in competitiveness must come from lower unit costs. The Government have considerable influence over some of those costs—on wages through the way in which they conduct their own wage negotiations, on interest rates through a variety of actions that they can take, on direct taxation especially as it affects manufacturing industry, and on nationalised industry prices. Any reductions in those areas are direct reductions in industrial costs and direct positive influences on competitiveness, growth and inflation.
On inflation, the effect is both direct and indirect. My right hon. Friend the Chancellor rightly said that wages were the key element in this respect. Lower industrial costs have not only a direct effect on inflation through the impact on the retail price index of lower gas prices or telephone charges but an indirect effect through wage bargaining. If negotiators believe that inflation is decreasing, they make more moderate wage claims. If they see little or no rise in nationalised industry prices or decrease in direct taxes or interest rates, they will believe that inflation is indeed falling.
Interest rates, which have been the subject of much of our debate, are an element in both growth and inflation. Lower interest rates reduce costs and inflation, but the relationship is complicated because the prospects for inflation are a major influence on interest rates. One of the major elements in the current high level of interest rates is doubt about the future rate of inflation, and whether it will fall or rise. The prospects for inflation at present are a much more important factor in the level of interest rates than marginal differences in predictions of the public sector borrowing requirement. If we adopt too absolute an approach to particular levels of the public sector borrowing requirement, opportunities are lost to influence growth and inflation through costs which are under Government control.
There is no doubt in the public mind of the Government's commitment to sound public sector finance. What is in doubt at the moment is the ability to continue to deliver growth and lower inflation. We should do all we can to push industrial costs down, even though this will inevitably be at some initial expense to the PSBR. With the recovery balanced as it is, and in a fragile condition, that must be the proper emphasis. At £10 billion the PSBR this year is about 3·25 per cent. of GDP. Next year at £8 billion it will be 2·5 per cent. Those are very modest levels in a recession.
We must realise that over-concern with the level of PSBR cancels out other options but that over-concern with forecasts of the PSBR—which, according to the autumn statement, is subject at this stage of the year to an error of estimating of some £2 billion—does more than that. To base the fine tuning of the economy on such a prediction could be extremely dangerous. The way to close the PSBR gap—if that were thought a desirable objective—would be through growth. I calculate roughly that if public expenditure stood still for two years and the economy grew by 3 per cent. per annum, the PSBR would simply disappear through increased taxation. No amount of public spending cuts could achieve that result.
I hope that in coming months the Treasury will worry rather less about the PSBR forecasts, and will try to reduce industrial costs. The obvious areas for action seem to me to be the national insurance surcharge, particularly as it

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affects manufacturing industries, the employers' national insurance contributions—which also affect manufacturing industry—and prices in the nationalised industries.
It is relevant, in thinking about this and about the level of the PSBR, to note what is happening in the United States, where there is 5 per cent. growth, 4 per cent. inflation, falling unemployment and a $200 billion public sector deficit. The United States is a special case, because of the relative unimportance of international trade and the willingness of foreigners to hold dollars, and I would not wish a similar experiment to be repeated here on a similar scale. However, it demonstrates at least that noninflationary growth and a large public sector deficit are not mutually inconsistent. I hope that the tactics of economic management over the next few months will be to reinforce the virtuous circle of low inflation, moderate wage claims, greater competitiveness and sustained growth. The Government can help by fostering low industrial costs, particularly through the national insurance surcharge and nationalised industry prices. I hope that they will do so, even at the cost of some marginal initial damage to the level of the PSBR.
8.38 pm
Mr. Dave Nellist: On page 3 of the Chancellor's statement, we find what may seem to those outside the House to be a remarkable statement. It is about the growth in domestic demand, the continued rise in investment, the recovery of exports and of world demand, the increased profitability of home supply, and rising employment.
As my hon. Friends have already emphasised, the Chancellor is cruelly deceiving the 5 million unemployed by his talk of rising employment, which is not backed up in the statement by any real hope that it will come about. The economic statement should be an opportunity for giving real hope to working people.
Instead, there are now 1·2 million young people under the age of 25 on the dole, of whom 14,000 are in the city of Coventry. Of those youngsters, 320,000 have been unemployed for over a year, 5,000 of them in Coventry. When the Government first took office, there was an average of 617 vacancies for youngsters at the careers or jobcentre in Coventry. At the last count it was 53. For the 5,000 youngsters who look with hope to the jobcentre, the odds against finding a job are 100:1, and yet we hear that employment is due to rise. The average time a person spends on the dole in Coventry is 10 months compared with just under nine months for the country as a whole.
During the last but one general election campaign, and also in the speeches surrounding the emergence of this Government, the Conservative party's philosophy was that mass unemployment could disappear because the dynamism of market forces and the push of private enterprise would take the British economy to almost untold heights. Perhaps the Chancellor or other Conservative Members will explain how it is that during the past 12 months 1,000 a month of those bastions of our recovery—the small businesses—have gone into liquidation.
The statement failed to deal with the deep-seated problems of the British economy. They will not be solved by a 3 per cent. growth in output or a 4 per cent. growth in investment. Those are the figures given in the document and in speeches by right hon. and hon. Members.
I wonder sometimes whether Conservative Members appreciate the depth of the problem of lack of investment
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in manufacturing industry that there has been over the past quarter of a century. During that period the world has changed; Great Britain has changed, but the decline in the relative position of the British economy compared with that of West Germany, Japan or America has been masked by the general increase in world trade.
Within that changing world, Great Britain has gone from being the second country in Europe and the fifth in the world in per capita output, to being 19th out of the 24 OECD countries. From having 25 per cent. of world trade 25 years ago, Britain has about 6 per cent. or 7 per cent. now.
In the 1960s, the economists of the financial papers wrote to the effect that they were worried about Great Britain losing its share of its own world market. In the 1970s and 1980s they spent all their time writing about Great Britain losing its share of the domestic market.
The faltering engine which fuels and powers that change, is investment in manufacturing industry. There is no lack of money available for the investment in industry necessary to guarantee jobs. because only a fortnight ago it was revealed that when Aspinall's, a roulette casino in London, put up 15 per cent. of its stock for sale, £500 million appeared immediately. Money will probably readily appear in the next 12 or 18 months when the Chancellor has completed his arrangements for the sale of 51 per cent. of the share in British Telecom, and his other denationalisation proposals. The fact that money exists within the economy knocks on the head the argument that there is not enough money to guarantee jobs or decent living standards.
I ask Conservative Members to consider where the money to fuel the Chancellor's prediction of a 4 per cent. rise in investment will come from as this year about £5 billion will be put into manufacturing investment, although the Chancellor expects £5 billion from the sale of shares in British Telecom and his other denationalisation proposals. Money that would have been invested in manufacturing will be siphoned off in those share sales.
Despite looks of incredulity, I tried during Question Time today to paint a picture of what the depth of the investment crisis in Britain means in global terms. I said that, a few years ago, the National Westminster bank—hardly a Socialist insititution—published a paper demonstrating that there was a £100 billion gap in investment in manufacturing in Britain as compared with Japan and Germany. That was the difference in the mid-1970s. If we allow for inflation, that gap has now increased to £200 billion.
The Chancellor says that there is to be a 4 per cent. increase in investment in the coming year, based upon a £5 billion investment. How will that gap ever be narrowed? How will that 4 per cent. rise in investment prevent British workers from perennially being told that they are not working hard enough or fast enough and that they are not producing goods cheaply enough or as productively as their counterparts in other countries? The difference between the economies of Germany and Japan and backward Britain is rather like giving one worker a spade and another a tractor, asking them to dig a field, and berating the one with the spade for taking two days because the one with the tractor took two hours. The gap in investment in manufacturing has reached horrendous proportions.
The Government have estimated that, in 1978, for every £ 1 per worker that was invested in Britain, £2·13

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was invested in America, £2·98 was invested in Germany and £3·09 was invested in Japan. Those figures have not altered materially under this Government's stewardship. The countries that I have mentioned have invested twice or three times as much per worker as Britain. How, then, is Britain to regain its predominance in world trade in manufactured goods of 30 years ago if those who have the money do not invest it in Britain?
Where does the investment go? At the moment, £32 million a day goes to Brazil, Argentina, South Africa and Korea. In those countries the dictatorships, military or otherwise, ensure that trade unions do not function, mainly because they declare them to be illegal. There is a parallel in the path that the British Government are treading. In those countries, wages are kept artificially low so that profits can be high. Is that how the Government intend to reverse the decline of the British economy? Are they intent on driving wages down to the level of those earned by workers in the far east and denying the trade unions the ability to organise, as has happened in Latin America?
The Chancellor's statement fails to face up to the crisis in the British economy. The British economy has suffered in the past 25 years, but it has suffered most from the monetarist policies of the past five. When it starts to crack at the seams, amazing contradictions emerge. If they were not so serious, we might be forgiven for thinking that they should appear in a West End farce.
If the winter is as bad as it was two years ago, 46,000 pensioners may die of hypothermia, a condition caused by too little food or fuel. In past weeks hon. Members have raised questions about the fact that at pitheads and power stations, 58 million tonnes of coal are stockpiled, 24 million tonnes of which are at the pitheads. It costs the Government, through the National Coal Board, and therefore recovered in taxation from working people, £100 million a year in interest charges to maintain that 24 million tonnes at the pitheads. Yet in the past five years the Government spoke of workers not producing enough coal and not working hard enough. When the miners produce more coal it is stockpiled, bank interest charges increase and pensioners run the risk of dying of hypothermia. That is a crazy way to run an economy.
The Minister in his reply must consider how the Government will explain to working people in the next few years the reason why they have run down so many industries. The spare capacity in most industries today is phenomenal. In the chemical and allied industries 35 per cent. of plant is not being used in metal manufacturing the figure is 28·6 per cent., in shipbuilding and marine engineering it is 25 per cent., in other metal industries it is 40·6 per cent., in textiles it is 39·3 per cent., in the brick, pottery, glass and cement industry it is 40·4 per cent., in timber and furniture it is 53·3 per cent. and in the construction industry it is 38·2 per cent.
As my hon. Friend the Member for Stoke-on-Trent, Central (Mr. Fisher) said, one third of a million building workers are on the dole, 5·5 million workers live in damp housing and 38 per cent. of plant capacity is not used. A sane society would bring together the building workers, the plant and working people's needs. The Chancellor's statement and speeches made by Conservative Members do not offer that hope. The Prime Minister's closest adviser does not offer hope in his autumn statement for this
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decade, nor for an upturn in the economy which would be sufficiently great to bring about prosperity, such as we had in the 1950s and 1960s, until the next decade.
The difference between capitalism in Britain and capitalism in Japan and Germany is £200 billion of investment. They, too, have problems of inflation and unemployment. What does the statement, which offers a 4 per cent. growth in investment and a 3 per cent. growth in output, offer to working people? It does not promise to reduce unemployment, to raise living standards, to improve housing or to fulfil the expectations of young people. As an opportunity to give working people a future, the Chancellor's statement is an abject failure. He presides over a candy floss economy that is slipping further and further into the backwaters of international trade. Until society is transformed and private profit is no longer the motivating force of the economy, we can expect from the Chancellor and his right hon. and hon. Friends month after month only more bad news for working people.
8.53 pm
Mr. John Townend: My right hon. and learned Friend the Chief Secretary will excuse my not wasting time giving the Government the praise that they deserve.
I shall restrict my remarks to public expenditure. The hon. Member for Coventry, South-East (Mr. Nellist) compared Japan, the United States and West Germany with Great Britain. I am grateful for that, because it proves my point. Could the success of those countries be due to the fact they spend a smaller proportion of their gross domestic product on the public sector than we do? Japan spends 26·5 per cent., the United States spends 34·2 per cent., and we spend 44·6 per cent. according to the latest figures. Equally, could they have more investment because they are taxed at a lower level than we are? Taxation as a proportion of GDP in Britain is 37·35 per cent. compared to 26·6 per cent. in Japan. I suggest that they are significant reasons for the success of those countries.
The Conservative party has fought two elections on a policy of reducing taxes and public expenditure. I admit that, despite our success on inflation and in many other areas, we have failed to deliver on taxation. Opposition Members were delighted to give figures showing how the share of tax as a proportion of GDP has increased. Although it is now falling slightly, if the present trend continues, after two terms in office we shall be going to the electorate with taxation higher than when we came in.
We have failed to get a grip on spending. We have successfully reduced the public sector borrowing requirement, as we said we would, but we have done it at the expense of the taxpayer. I do not blame my right hon. Friend the Chancellor, or his predecessors. The blame lies with spending Ministers, spending Departments, health authorities and local authorities. I must say frankly—I speak as a blunt Yorkshireman—that it is depressing for our supporters in the country to see their leaders, who at election time are united in advocating a policy of reducing spending and taxation, forget about cutting expenditure as soon as they enter the spending Departments. At best, they fight to maintain their budgets; at worst, they fight to increase their resources. It is a depressing thought that in 1985–86, public expenditure is

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expected to increase by 4·7 per cent.—a figure which, if the Government continue to be successful in their anti-inflation policy, could be higher than the level of inflation.
What the Government are saying to us is that the public cannot look for real reductions in public expenditure until 1986–87. It could then be much more difficult politically, because we shall be in the second half of this Parliament. Surely there will never be a better time than the present to cut spending. After a great election victory, and with a large majority in a new Parliament, we can carry out policies that are unpopular in the short term but that will bring benefits in the long term.
Anyone who advocates the policies that I advocate—several of my right hon. and hon. Friends do—has a duty to spell out where he would make reductions. We must be honest, and radical. No Department can be exempt. For a start, the concept of automatic full indexation, whether of Civil Service pensions, benefits or tax allowances, should be challenged.
I have a long list of suggestions as to where we could make savings, but I shall not go through it entirely because only two minutes remain. I shall start with the Health Service. Far from reducing expenditure on the Health Service, we have continually increased it. Next year it will be £15 billion, and the year after it will be £16 billion. A retired consultant who visited me at the weekend was furious about the so-called cuts in the Health Service. He made it clear that vast savings could be made, and I could list them all. One of the most important suggestions is the privatisation of services. I welcome the Government's efforts to move the laundry, cleaning and catering services to the private sector. However, the Government are not taking a strong enough line, because many health authorities are dragging their feet. At least some, if not all, of the money saved should go back to the Treasury to be used to reduce the PSBR or taxation.
The public sector must cut costs and increase productivity, as the private sector has had to do. The Government have set a good example by reducing manning levels in the Civil Service. The same should happen in the Health Service and in local government. Time is running out. My right hon. Friend must act with haste. He no longer has the time to use the surgical knife. Now, if he wants to cut taxes, he must bring out the axe.
9 pm
Mr. Terry Davis: We have had two maiden speeches tonight—one from the hon. Member for Mid-Norfolk (Mr. Ryder) and one from the hon. Member for St. Albans (Mr. Lilley). Both hon. Members have already been here long enough to know that what I am about to say is meant to be more than the usual obligatory comments from the Front Bench. Both hon. Members made excellent speeches which were heard with interest and a fair measure of agreement on the Opposition side of the House as well as on theirs.
The hon. Member for Mid-Norfolk has the good fortune to be the first member for a new constituency, but one of his predecessors was Sir Anthony Fell. Although we often disagreed with him, he is sorely missed by the Opposition. The hon. Gentleman made a speech which was both brief and thoughtful. He called for a popular debate on the options for public expenditure. The Opposition would welcome such a debate. We agree with him because it would not only be good for the House; it would also be a good opportunity for our party.
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The predecessor of the hon. Member for St. Albans was Sir Victor Goodhew, and the best compliment that I can pay the hon. Gentleman is to say that I am sure he will be a worthy successor to one of the nicest men who ever sat in the House. I hope that I shall not ruin the hon. Gentleman's career in the Conservative party by saying that he made an excellent speech, and that I agreed with most of it. He called for the Government to look hard at, and to cut, the increases in public expenditure on agriculture, defence and the contribution to the EC budget. I agree with all of that.
On the other hand, I cannot agree with the hon. Gentleman in his congratulations to the Chancellor on sticking to a total of £126·4 billion for public expenditure next year. The Chancellor's obsession with the figure of £126·4 billion was at the heart of his economic statement a week ago, and it is at the heart of our criticism of his policy. The Chancellor said today that the public expenditure White Paper published in February was the Conservative manifesto in the general election campaign in June, and that in voting Conservative in the election, people were voting for that. White Paper.
I am not sure whether the Chancellor was holding up volume 1 or volume 2 for the benefit of the House, but that does not matter because, although volume 2 has more detail, there is plenty of detail in volume 1. When the Chancellor says that people were voting for the public expenditure White Paper when they went to the polling stations, we are entitled to tell him that people voted for a pattern of public spending and not for a total of £126·4 billion. Almost the only figures that the Chancellor has left untouched are the total of £126·4 billion and his contingency fund of £3 billion.
Let us look at the details of public expenditure as announced by the Chancellor in his latest statement, because, as he pointed out, there are changes in both directions within the total. Contrary to what the right hon. Member for Worthing (Mr. Higgins) said, some of the changes are significant. In fact, there are four significant changes—one big increase., two big reductions and one increase that is really a decrease.
The one big increase, by far the biggest proportionate increase, is in the money provided for the Intervention Board for Agricultural Produce, an increase of £400 million. That is 50 per cent. more than we were told to expect in February—half as much again to pay farmers to produce food that no one wants to eat.
No doubt the Chief Secretary will tell us that next year's figure will be virtually the same as this year's actual figure, but the fact remains that it is £400 million more than was planned for next year, just as this year there is £300 million more than was originally planned. Of course, this expenditure is now inescapable. It is a result of decisions taken several months ago, and it represents a confession of a continuing failure by the Government in their attempts to reduce or even limit the increase in the amount that we spend in this way.
There is a reduction of £500 million in the provision for housing compared with February, but a reduction of £2 billion over five years in cash terms—a cut of nearly half in Government expenditure on housing. In real terms, the reduction is much greater than that. Indeed, at a time when the Government plan to increase public expenditure as a whole by two thirds compared with 1979, they intend to cut expenditure on housing by half. Yet the housing

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crisis in Britain stands next only to unemployment as a monument to the Government's indifference to human misery.
Then there is the increase which is really a decrease. At first sight, expenditure on social security is rising by £900 million next year compared with the figure announced in February—that is an increase of 2·5 per cent. But it is only £163 million after adjusting the previous figure for the Budget and other pre-survey changes since February—so the increase is less than 0·5 per cent.
During the first six months of this year, the overspending on supplementary benefit alone was 5 per cent.—£400 million. I assume that the figure has been taken into account in adjusting the February figures for Budget and pre-survey changes, yet the public expenditure statement assumes that there will be a 5·5 per cent. uprating next November. That increase next year will increase public expenditure by 2 per cent. in the next financial year compared with an increase in the public expenditure statement of only 0·5 per cent. Therefore, some of those who depend on social security benefits—perhaps all of them—will lose some way next year.
They will lose not only because of the change from November to May in the calculation of the increase—if the Chancellor's forecast for inflation is wrong—but they will lose more directly as a consequence of other Government decisions. Not only will there be no improvement in the standard of living for those who depend on supplementary benefit, pensions or housing benefit, but there is no share for them in the 6·5 per cent. increase in average earnings or even the 3 per cent. increase that the Government wish to impose on those who work in the National Health Service, the civil servants and others engaged in the public service. Indeed, there will be a reduction for some people who receive benefits.
We know that some of those who will be hit are those in receipt of housing benefit and rate rebates—and not only tenants, but owner occupiers. They will suffer as a result of what the Chancellor calls a "reduction in the coverage" of help with housing costs, and especially housing benefits. It was left to the Secretary of State for Social Services to spell it out—there will be a cut of £230 million in housing benefit. Therefore, the apparent increase in social security hides a large reduction in practice—and we do not yet know about all the reductions.
The largest reduction of all in this year's public expenditure statement is the cut in the external financing limits for nationalised industries of more than £700 million compared with the figures announced in February—the February figure that people thought they were voting for when they voted for the Conservative manifesto in June.
Hon. Members on both sides of the House have referred to the increases in gas and electricity prices. My right hon. Friend the Member for Birmingham, Sparbrook (Mr. Hattersley) exposed the way in which the Chancellor is forcing the gas industry to increase its prices on the pretext that it must improve its internal investment. Yet the Chancellor was himself responsible for a once-for-all accounting provision that reduced its return on investment—or, rather, its return on paper—from 5·7 per cent. to 1·6 per cent.
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However, that is not all. Only four nationalised industries have escaped the Chancellor's technique for balancing his books—coal, steel, shipbuilding and civil aviation. What about the rest? We know about gas and electricity. What about the water industry, the Post Office, British Rail, and the National Bus Company? What will happen to all their charges in 1984–85? The Chancellor of the Exchequer has reduced all their external financing limits. What other price increases are in the pipeline that we have not yet been told about? What will happen to water rates next year? What will happen to the postal charges next year? What will happen to bus and rail fares next year? Or will those industries simply postpone their capital expenditure?
Whatever happens, it is bad news for the consumer and for industry, as the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Chief Secretary have been told not only by Labour Members but by their own Members. Increases in gas and electricity prices, water rates, postal charges and rail and bus fares are not only inflationary, but exactly the same as increases in taxation, in that they reduce the purchasing power of the consumer. Incidentally, they are very bad taxes, because they impose disproportionate burdens on the poorest people in the community, but my main point is that, just as with reductions in housing benefit and rate rebates, they reduce the purchasing power of the consumers. In doing so, they bring bad news to British industry too because they reduce the domestic market for British industry.
I am not surprised that the Chancellor's announcement had such a poor reception from industry, because the rest of his statement did not contain much good news either. When we look at the detailed figures which support his claim that we have a winning combination of low inflation and steady growth, we find that everything depends on two key factors. It is already clear that the rate of growth is now falling. In fact, the graphs in his statement show that the growth in the average measure of GDP peaked in early 1983, and has now fallen. The Chancellor of the Exchequer admits that the growth in domestic demand will fall back next year. He is pinning all his hopes of maintaining a steady growth of 3 per cent. in the economy on increased investment and an increase in exports.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer is looking for an increase in investment of 4 per cent., compared with an increase of only 2·5 per cent. this year. However, there is little to justify that confidence. His statement tells us that manufacturing investment is showing signs of only levelling out, after falling by more than a third since 1979. We think it is good news that manufacturing investment is no longer going down. Certainly that is good news, but levelling out will not produce an increase of 4 per cent. next year in the amount being invested in manufacturing capacity, especially at a time when industry after industry is operating with excess capacity, as my hon. Friend the Member for Coventry, South-East (Mr. Nellist) said, and at a time when, for example, more than three quarters of the firms in the west midlands report that they have excess capacity.
So where will the Chancellor of the Exchequer get his increased investment? Will it all come from house building? That was cut in the public expenditure statement. Will it come from the nationalised industries? Their external financing limits were cut. So where will the investment come from? I hope that the Chief Secretary will tell us when he winds up.

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Perhaps the Chief Secretary will also tell us where exports are to come from. If the forecast for fixed investment looks optimistic, the forecast for exports is nothing less than wishful thinking. This year our exports increased by 0·5 per cent. Next year, the Chancellor of the Exchequer expects them—no one else expects it—to increase by no less than 4 per cent. He has no justification whatever for that forecast. It will not come from North Sea oil. The right hon. Gentleman admits that exports of fuels will remain broadly unchanged. He expects an increase in exports of manufactured goods, non-manufactured goods, and services. He told us that all of them would increase. If the export of fuels is to be broadly unchanged, it follows that all those other exports will have to grow by more than 4 per cent. By how much does the Chancellor expect each group of exports to increase next year? I hope that the Chief Secretary will tell us, and while he is about it, I hope he will tell us why they will increase. There are no grounds for optimism on this scale anywhere in the Chancellor's statement.
What the Chancellor does tell us in his statement is that both the volume and value of our share of world trade in manufactured goods have fallen since 1979. He says that although the volume went up for a couple of years after 1981, the value continued to go down. Both volume and value have been going down this year. Why all this optimism about world trade? The Chancellor, the Chief Secretary and the Prime Minister—I am not sure about the rest of the Cabinet—think that British industry is now more competitive, but the only evidence the Chancellor gives us is a table on productivity, which shows that more than 1 million jobs have been lost in manufacturing industry since 1980 and that output is almost back, not to the 1979 level, but to the level at the end of 1980. On that evidence, on those figures, on that table and on that table alone, the Chancellor claims that productivity has improved and that we are more competitive in foreign markets.
Anyone who has ever worked in industry knows that the Chancellor's table is completely irrelevant when discussing the productivity and competitiveness of individual firms. It is the individual firm that sells and exports abroad. It is not the Chancellor or the Treasury with its charts and tables but the individual firm. What matters to the individual firm when trying to sell abroad is its own productivity, its own unit costs and its own prices. Recent experience tells us that at the level of the individual firm we are not more competitive. During 1983, imports of manufactured goods have risen not by 0·5 per cent., not by 4 per cent. or 5 per cent. but by 10 per cent. Half that increase is attributed by the Treasury to a loss by British manufacturers of their share of their own domestic market. In other words, British manufacturers are not more competitive—they are less competitive in their own market when faced with foreign firms. There is no reason to suppose that they will be more competitive in the countries of those foreign firms than they are in Britain.
What is the Chancellor doing to help British industry and to help the individual firm to improve productivity and reduce unit costs? He is doing nothing—worse than nothing. The Chancellor has given each exporter a slap in the face—not one but two slaps in the face. First, the Chancellor has acted deliberately, as he has been told by his hon. Friends, to increase the costs of industry by increasing the price of energy and, I suspect, the cost of water, transport and postage. That is a direct result of his
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juggling with the external financing limits of the nationalised industries. The second way that the Chancellor has acted to hamper productivity and to increase unit costs has been to stick rigidly and inflexibly to the figure of £126·4 billion of public expenditure. At a time when more than 40 per cent. of the firms in the west midlands are working at less than 60 per cent. of capacity, the Chancellor is deliberately squeezing domestic demand and cutting back on economic growth based on domestic demand.
If the Chancellor really wanted to help the individual firm to export, he would expand the domestic market and introduce import controls to ensure that the benefit went to British manufacturers. That, more than anything else, is what every exporter needs—a domestic market that is big enough to get his unit costs down and to act as a base from which he can attack the foreign markets. That is what people in Japan have and what peple in this country do not have. That is exactly what the Chancellor will not give the British exporter.
Mr. Eggar: I think that I detect the first bit of Opposition policy. Did we just have a reiteration of the Opposition's belief in import controls?
Mr. Davis: Yes. That is exactly what the Chancellor will not give the British exporter. It became clear during the famous discussion between the Chancellor and Mr. Walden last Sunday that if the Chancellor hates nationalised industries, he hates public expenditure more.
Mr. Budgen: Will the hon. Gentleman give way?
Mr. Davis: The hon. Gentleman has not been present for much of the debate, but I shall give way.
Mr. Budgen: Will the hon. Gentleman explain the extent to which he is advocating import controls and on what commodities he proposes they should be placed?
Mr. Davis: I shall be delighted to explain that to the hon. Genleman in a future debate on import controls, which I am sure we shall have. However, I hope that he will do the House the courtesy of attending that debate and not merely intervening in the wind-up speeches.
When the Chancellor and Mr. Walden were talking last Sunday, the Chancellor made it clear that it did not matter to him that an increase in public expenditure would help industry and create more jobs directly and indirectly. Equally, it does not matter to the Chancellor that public expenditure means public services, better schools, a better Health Service and higher pensions. What became clear during the interview with Mr. Walden was the difference between the Labour party and the new dogmatic Conservative party.
Until a few years ago, the argument between the two parties was not whether more money for schools, housing, the Health Service or pensions was desirable, but whether we could afford it. The difference was that Labour always wanted to spend more on those services and the Conservatives always argued that we must wait for the economy to improve. Their argument always used to be that we must first earn the money with which to pay for those improved services.
The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Mr. Peter Rees) indicated assent——
Mr. Davis: I see the Chief Secretary nodding. Obviously, he did not watch television on Sunday morning. Therefore, I shall have to tell him what the Chancellor said.
The difference was that Labour always wanted jam today and the Tories always promised jam tomorrow, and tomorrow never seemed to come. However, that is not the difference now. In the famous interview on "Weekend World" last Sunday, the Chancellor made it clear that not only would he not provide more money next year for better schools, a better Health Service or higher pensions in real terms, but he did not hold out any prospect for more money for those services at any time in the future, whatever happens to the economy—not even in the 1990s if this Chancellor and this Government have their way.
The Chancellor specifically said that the areas where he would be looking to cut public expenditure in the 1990s would be social security, the Health Service and education. He referred Mr. Walden and the audience to what the Government had done for council housing. As the Chief Secretary did not see the programme, I shall have to tell him what the Chancellor said. It was:
"Housing is a basic need, and the need for housing will go up as the country gets wealthier—as people's aspirations get higher".
There is no recognition of the present unmet need or of the thousands of families waiting for accommodation, but let us pass by, like the Chancellor.
The right hon. Gentleman went on to say that the cardinal policy of the Conservative party is that more and more should be provided by the private sector. He said:
"People like to own their own homes."
There is no recognition of the fact that some people do not have the money to buy their own homes.
The kernel of the Chancellor's argument was:
"what we need to do is to apply that sort of philosophy to these other areas—what is the scope for greater private provision in all these areas?"
Let us not forget that the Chancellor was talking about social security, the Health Service and education. For the Chancellor, it is not a question of giving people a choice but of forcing them to pay for treatment in hospitals and for the education of their children.
The Chancellor has already made a start on that. Quietly, without announcing it, the right hon. Gentleman has begun to privatise social security. As my hon. Friend the Member for Pontypridd (Mr. John) pointed out, the Government Actuary's report shows that the Government will reduce their contribution to the national insurance fund by £459 million next year. That measure of privatisation is buried away on page 6 of the report. It is a means of ensuring that there is greater private provision and smaller public provision towards the cost of protecting people against all the misfortunes that are covered by the national insurance fund. It is making people who are still employed pay more of the cost of supporting those who are unemployed, sick, widowed or retired, including the cost of the Christmas bonus about which Conservative Members keep talking. The Government are reducing their contribution towards the cost of all these benefits. That is one way in which the Chancellor is shifting the cost of social security from public to private provision—and he is not waiting until the 1990s to start the process; he is making a quiet start next year.
The Chancellor is not alone in that desire in the Government. I have referred to the Chief Secretary and the Prime Minister, but we must not forget the Secretary of
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State for the Environment, who last Thursday held a press conference. That was not in the Chancellor's economic statement; and the Secretary of State for the Environment preferred to talk to journalists than to hon. Members.
At that press conference the right hon. Gentleman is reported as having said—he has not denied it subsequently—that local authorities no longer needed to build homes for what he described as "ordinary families". He said that local councils should concentrate their activity on special needs housing for the elderly or handicapped.
Let us be clear what the right hon. Gentleman was saying, because it goes much further than selling council houses to sitting tenants. The Secretary of State for the Environment was saying, on behalf of the Government, that in the longer term, councils should not provide accommodation for anyone except the elderly or handicapped. I am not sure what the right hon. Gentleman thinks the rest of the population should do. In the view of the Government, councils should not provide any accommodation for anyone who is working, however low the wages, who is unemployed and has no hope of buying his own home, for single people—say, young people who have left home for the first time—for single parent families, widows, battered wives or divorced people, all the ordinary people who are standing in the queue for council accommodation. Then there are all the people like them who have council accommodation now. I am not sure where they should look for accommodation in future. Perhaps the Chief Secretary will tell us, as we do not have the Secretary of State for the Environment with us tonight.
Not only do the Conservatives see public expenditure as a burden to be borne by the economy, instead of a motor that drives it; not only do they see it as something to be reduced and avoided; not only do they see it as something that detracts from, instead of improving, the quality of life. In the Chancellor's warped version of political economy, public spending is a sin. Gone are the days of the Tory squires with their paternalistic ideas. We in the Labour party always looked on their motives with suspicion, but at least they had some idea that people should have a responsibility to people other than themselves.
As I say, the squires have gone or are on their way out—for example, the right hon. Member for Cambridgeshire, South-East (Mr. Pym); the present Secretary of State for Energy; the present Leader of the House; and the right hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham (Sir I. Gilmour). They have had their day. They will soon be sent to another place. We are left with a new Tory party, inflexible and dogmatic, as impervious to reason as the Chancellor, and I ask all Opposition Members to join me in the Lobby against them.
The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Mr. Peter Rees) rose——
Mr. George Robertson: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. I wish to remind you, Mr. Speaker, of what you said on 7 November:
"May I add that I hope those who are called will always observe the etiquette of the House by remaining in the Chamber to hear some of the subsequent contributions—at the very least the next speaker—and certainly that they will be in their places for the winding-up speeches.[Official Report, 7 November 1983; Vol. 48, c. 23.]
As I came through the carriage gates at 9 o'clock the Chancellor of the Exchequer was departing in his car, and he has turned up at 27 minutes past 9. Can we assume that

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his reason for leaving was either because of a national or personal emergency or because he was indulging in a simple and blatant breach of etiquette and decencies of the House in not remaining for the winding-up speeches?
Mr. Speaker: Order. I have no knowledge of either official or private engagements of any right hon. and hon. Members. I stand by the statement that I made on that occasion.
Mr. Rees rose——
Mr. Willie W. Hamilton: Will you, Mr. Speaker, make it very clear that the first priority of any Minister, whatever his outside engagements, is to the House?
Mr. Speaker: I have nothing to add. A convention which all hon. Members should adopt in the House is that if they have been taking part in a debate they should be present for the winding-up speeches.
9.32 pm
Mr. Rees: We have had an interesting and wide-ranging debate. I cannot say that the Opposition Benches have been very full, which is no doubt why they are raising these spurious points of order.
My first and pleasant duty, which I hope the House will allow me to perform, is to congratulate my hon. Friends the Members for Mid-Norfolk (Mr. Ryder) and for St. Albans (Mr. Lilley) for their eloquent and perceptive contributions to the debate. I think that we appreciated the graceful references to their constituencies. As Chief Secretary to the Treasury, I appreciated their pointed comments about public expenditure. I am sure that the whole House, and I personally, will look forward to their further contributions, not only to economic and public expenditure debates but to wider subjects.
Next, it would not be inappropriate for me to congratulate the hon. Member for Birmingham, Hodge Hill (Mr. Davis). I think that this is the first time that he has spoken in his new role. I appreciate that I need not tell the hon. Gentleman that it is a difficult role, especially in opposition. Without the constraints imposed by the real world or those imposed by the International Monetary Fund, he will, I predict, find it difficult to guide the Labour party on the paths of realism. None the less, I wish him well and look forward to further friendly encounters in the Chamber.
I hope that I may be permitted to try to set the debate in its true context and begin by correcting two misunderstandings. Some hon. Gentlemen and one or two outside commentators have voiced their suspicions that the fiscal prospect described by my right hon. Friend last Thursday was a pretence designed to shock and frighten. Although the right hon. Member for Birmingham, Sparkbrook (Mr. Hattersley), has obviously, but unusually, been frightened and intimidated, I shall try to bolster him up with a message of good cheer, but perhaps he can contain himself for a moment. The Treasury, under the guidance of my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer, attempts to lead by reasoned argument and not by tactics of that kind. However, others have seen the statement of the fiscal prospect as a rehearsal for the Budget that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer will present next year. I do not believe that either of those groups is right. Last week's announcements were not a mini-budget; still less were they a statement of what will be in next year's Budget.
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On Thursday, my right hon. Friend announced the outline public spending plans for the coming year. Departments, local authorities and the public corporations now have adequate time to prepare their own more detailed plans.
At the same time, my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer published the forecast required under the Industry Act. This year, as last—following the report on budgetary reform prepared by the Treasury and Civil Service Committee under the chairmanship of my right hon. Friend the Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann)—the forecast gave estimates of public borrowing As the point was raised, in particular, by my hon. Friend the Member for Worthing (Mr. Higgins), may I say how sorry we are that there could not have been a contribution to our debates from the Treasury and Civil Service Committee under his wise guidance. I understand that there are certain difficulties, as the Committee has not been fully constituted. However, we look forward to some perceptive and informed comments from the Committee in due course.
The forecast proceeds on the assumption that the PSBR for next year will be held to 2·5 per cent. of the gross domestic product, or £8 billion, as indicated at the time of the Budget and that the main taxes will be indexed. On that basis, it suggested that a small net increase in taxation of about £0·5 billion might be needed to achieve that. That is the figure that appears in table 1.9 of the autumn statement, and I believe that it would have been absurd for my right hon. Friend the Chancellor to gloss over it.
As my right hon. Friend the Member for Worthing remarked, the sums involved are small and may be within the margin of error. Equally, we bear in mind, as I am sure that my right hon. Friend will, the injunctions of my right hon. Friend the Member for Guildford (Mr. Howell). We took great account of what he had to say. I naturally very much hope that a net tax increase will not prove to be necessary. However, I can assure the House that the appropriate decisions will be taken if taxes need to be increased in order to hold down public borrowing. Our determination on that point, as on others, was shown during the previous Parliament.
The results of our determination are clearly to be seen—at least by all but blinkered Opposition Members. I shall repeat them, because the right hon. Member for Sparkbrook does not give much credence to what has happened. I refer to the lowest inflation rate since the 1960s and to a recovery that began early in 1981. Indeed, that point appears to have escaped the attention of the right hon. Gentleman, who seems to think that it was a mini-election boom. It is expected to continue next year without a resurgence of inflation.
Mr. Stuart Bell: The Chief Secretary needs an umbrella.
Mr. Rees: I do not need an umbrella, because I am protected by the results that we have achieved so far.
Some hon. Members have expressed concern about the extent to which the recovery has depended upon the growth of consumer expenditure and questioned whether it can continue. I noted that my hon. Friend the Member for Lewisham, West (Mr. Maples) was concerned that the recovery might be fragile. There is—or there should be—no surprise about the growth of consumer spending in the early stages of the recovery. That has been the pattern

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in many past recoveries. In this case it has been stimulated particularly by the fall of the savings ratio, as people have felt less need to put money aside simply to cope with the effects of inflation.
We now have the prospect of the recovery becoming more broadly based. Exports and investments are expected to grow more rapidly, helping to sustain growth in what will be the fourth year of the recovery.
Mr. Austin Mitchell: Why? What will make them?
Mr. Rees: I hope that the hon. Gentleman will contain himself. I have already mentioned some of the pointers to that successful outcome. The hon. Gentleman might care to ponder on a predicted 5 per cent. growth in manufacturing investment next year—[Interruption.] I am delighted to hear the authentic voice of the Militant Tendency. It is good to hear those unvarnished views, which are too often suppressed, we understand, in the constituencies. However, the hon. Gentleman may reflect on the fact that manufacturing investment will increase. I hope that that will give him hope and that he will realise that there are merits in the policies that he has doubted for so long.
Mr. Nellist: First, does the Chief Secretary accept that, since the Government first came to office in 1979, the proportion of total investment in manufactures has fallen from 48 per cent. to one third of that total? The real increase in total investment has come in service industries, not in manufactures.
Secondly, does the Chief Secretary accept also that any increases during the next 12 months are more likely to be in stocks than in manufacturing investment which would enable goods to be made more cheaply and productively?
Mr. Rees: I am always surprised that Opposition Members are so dismissive of the service sector. They might ponder the fact that about 11·5 million of our fellow countrymen are employed in the service sector and, therefore, it is not a bad thing that investment in that sector should increase. The hon. Gentleman may be unaware that restocking has probably very largely been completed, so we do not look to it as a substantial element in the increase in GDP next year.
The subject of energy prices was raised by several Opposition Members, especially the right hon. Member for Sparkbrook who was sufficiently ill-judged to assert that my right hon. Friend, who has been a most distinguished Secretary of State for Energy, was too timid to deal with this subject. I notice that the Liberal and SDP amendment refers cautiously to this question. [HON. MEMBERS: "Where are they?"] I do not want to intrude on the domestic griefs of the Labour party, but I believe that they have a point. I notice also that the official Opposition amendment prudently does not refer to this question. I say "prudently", because the principle to which the Government subscribe was well set out in the Green Paper issued in 1978 by Mr. Wedgwood Benn.
Mr. Hattersley: Who is he?
Mr. Rees: I hope that the right hon. Member for Sparkbrook is not taking advantage of the absence from the House of Mr. Wedgwood Benn. I am sure that we all wish him good luck in the selection process at Chesterfield as
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he makes a notable contribution to our debates.[Interruption.] The hon. Member for Bolsover (Mr. Skinner) clearly appreciates him, but I do not want to come between the hon. Member for Bolsover and his friends on the Front Bench. They can debate that matter on some other occasion.
I remind the right hon. Member for Sparkbrook—he was the Minister responsible for prices at the time—that, according to the 1978 Green Paper,
"the principle that prices should reflect the costs of supply on a continuing basis while providing for an adequate return on capital is now firmly established."
Will the right hon. Member for Sparkbrook tell us whether that is still the principle to which the Labour party adheres? He nods, but he is a little quiet.
Mr. Hattersley: I have been waiting all afternoon for the right hon. and learned Gentleman to get to this. The hon. Member for Horsham (Mr. Hordern) also made the point. The argument is not about whether there should be an appropriate return on capital but about whether the Government changed the figures to make it appear that there was not an appropriate return on capital. I ask the Chief Secretary a direct question. I have before me the annual accounts of the British Gas Corporation.
Mr. Rees: So have I.
Mr. Hattersley: Perhaps the Chief Secretary will look at the bottom of page 92, which shows how capital and profit are calculated in determining the targets. I shall give the right hon. and learned Gentleman a chance to answer if he likes. Why has the established criterion—the target criterion—for determining profitability been abandoned during the past fortnight to justify the price increases?
Mr. Rees: It has not. The answer is quite simple.
Mr. Skinner: Come on, Paul Daniels.
Mr. Hattersley: The right hon. and learned Gentleman turns away a little too quickly.
Mr. Rees: I am coming to the point. Let me come to it in my own time. There is a perfectly simple answer which the right hon. Gentleman seems not to have grasped because he is focusing on the wrong year and the wrong set of accounts. First, the right hon. Gentleman was probably looking at the 1982 profits.
Mr. Hattersley rose——
Mr. Rees: No, I will not give way. [HON. MEMBERS: "Very wise."] The profits for 1983 were £332 million.
Mr. Hattersley: That is electricity.
Mr. Rees: So it is. I am sorry. The British Gas Corporation's profits were £663 million—and that takes no account of the sale of "enterprise oil," which is what the right hon. Gentleman was picking on. As a return on assets, that is 5·7 per cent.
Mr. Hattersley: Yes.
Mr. Rees: That is not the point that the right hon. Gentleman was making earlier. He may be convulsed with laughter because he has either been looking at the wrong accounts or making the wrong calculation on the capital assets. The capital assets are about £12 billion, so, although the British Gas Corporation has been making a profit, it has not been a substantial one.

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The right hon. Member for Sparkbrook should be more concerned about what happened between 1974 and 1979 under the Labour Government. I will remind the House of what happened.
Mr. Hattersley rose——
Mr. Rees: Oh, no! The right hon. Gentleman can just sit still and listen to what I have to tell him and the House. Under the Labour Government, the price of industrial gas rose by 291 per cent. I have taken the trouble—no doubt the whole House has—to read Lord Barnett's book. Of course, we know that the right hon. Member for Sparkbrook supported those price increases without conviction. He is the apostle of convictionless politics.
Under the Labour Government, the price of domestic gas rose by 73 per cent., the price of industrial electricity by 134 per cent. and the price of domestic electricity by 169 per cent. Does the right hon. Gentleman claim that those figures are inaccurate? In every case but that of domestic gas, with which I shall deal in a moment, those increases were way above those for which the Conservatives were responsible between 1979 and 1983. In that period, the comparable increases were 85 per cent. for industrial gas, 112 per cent. for domestic gas, 67 per cent. for industrial electricity and 83 per cent. for domestic electricity.
I remind the House of the disastrous consequences of the distortion of prices under the Labour Government in favour of domestic gas users but not, surprisingly, electricity users. A massive domestic demand for gas developed which the British Gas Corporation could not meet. More particularly, industries seeking new supplies faced much higher prices and the corporation was obliged to ration supplies. We do not wish to repeat that situation.
Let us now consider the present position. The right hon. Gentleman's case depends entirely on some rather spurious figures that he has concocted about the return on assets. Has he read the 1983 report of Deloitte Haskins? That report clearly states:
"In 1982–83 sales of gas in all markets, apart from the interruptible market, were taking place at prices which are insufficient to meet marginal costs and then the costs of maintaining supply."
The right hon. Gentleman will get no support from that set of accounts. He might ponder on that point.
Mr. Hattersley: I ask the Chief Secretary again, as calmly as I can, the question that I asked the Chancellor. I refer to the footnote at the bottom of page 92 of the 1983 accounts. Why have the Government changed the criterion upon which profitability in these industries has traditionally been measured?
Mr. Rees: My accounts for 1982–83 do not run up to page 91.[Laughter.] I must not be directed too much by these entertaining exchanges.
Mr. Hattersley: Take a look at them.
Mr. Rees: Take a look at that.
As regards profits, it is true that in 1982–83 the electricity industries reported profits of £332 million and the British Gas Corporation profits of £663 million. Those are large sums, but they must be viewed against the turnover of the industries and the assets invested in them.
The turnover for the electricity industries in 1982–83 was just over £9 billion. The turnover for the British Gas Corporation in that year was just short of £6 billion. The assets invested in the electricity industries were around £32
544
billion, and the assets invested in the British Gas Corporation were around £12 billion. The return on those assets is just under 2·5 per cent. for 1983–84 in the electricity industries and about 4 per cent for 1983–84 for the British Gas Corporation. Tested in that way, the profits of those industries cannot be regarded as high and certainly not as excessive.
As regards industrial users, gas and electricity prices are in general in line with our continental competitors. Some large-scale industrial users of electricity may be at a disadvantage, but more than 95 per cent. of industrial and commercial consumers are not. The price increases being considered at the moment will not change that position.
Mr. Nellist: What about coal stocks?
Mr. Rees: That is a different question. The hon. Gentleman may like to consider that there will be a positive external financing limit of over £900 million for the NCB.
My right hon. Friend the Member for Chesham and Amersham (Sir I. Gilmour) thinks through his speeches rather more carefully than the right hon. Member for Sparkbrook. He suggested that there had been a relaxation of the Government's fiscal position. I refer him to the autumn statement. Tax receipts have remained roughly constant in real terms between 1982–83, and 1983–84. Public borrowing has remained constant as a proportion of GDP; the PSBR is likely to be about 3·25 per cent. of GDP—the same proportion as last year. I refer my right hon. Friend to table 1.7, which substantiates some of those points. I remind my right hon. Friend, as I reminded the right hon. Member for Sparkbrook, that in any event the recovery started in 1981 so that the figures to which he has drawn attention would not be conclusive.
My right hon. Friend said that he did not like our rhetoric but that he might approve of our actions. I fear that he may continue to find our rhetoric somewhat distasteful, but I hope that he will accept that our actions are worthy of consideration—at least by our standards. I know that my right hon. Friend is very open-minded on this question. I hope that when he has studied the figures again he will draw a different conclusion.
The hon. Member for Pontypridd (Mr. John), the hon. Member for Wrexham (Dr. Marek) and the right hon. Member for Sparkbrook, mentioned the question of housing benefits. All that has happened is a 5 per cent. reduction in the total cost of a programme running at about £4 billion. The target will have been narrowed from about 7 million households to about 6·25 million households—that is all—and no one on supplementary benefit need be affected.
I fear that the entertaining exchange that I have had with the right hon. Member for Sparkbrook may have prevented me from referring to all the interesting speeches that have been made. One point made by the hon. Member for Hodge Hill was rightly picked up by my hon. Friend the Member for Enfield, North (Mr. Eggar). I understand that it is now settled Labour party policy that we should have a system of import controls, notwithstanding the fact that this country probably exports a higher proportion of its GDP than any other developed country, and notwithstanding our obligations to GATT and the European Community.
I will leave the hon. Member for Hodge Hill to explain on another occasion how those points can be reconciled.

545
I imagine that the reintroduction of exchange controls is part of Labour party policy, in which case it could make some difficulty for the National Graphical Association which I understand has recently been exporting some of its assets, and for the National Coal Board pension fund which has been investing in real estate overseas.
Mr. Skinner: It will be the Daily Mirror next.
Mr. Rees: If the hon. Gentleman is suggesting that those of his colleagues who work for the coal industry would prefer to see their pension fund investing in the Daily Mirror I will leave that to him to explain.
Alas, time draws on. I must pass over charitably the contributions of the alliance, because they have not been very substantial. No doubt they are debating among themselves whether they believe in a statutory prices and incomes policy. It is, however, remarkable that the right hon. Member for Sparkbrook never rose to the challenge posed by my right hon. Friend the Chancellor as to exactly what Labour party policy is on this subject.
It is all very well for the right hon. Gentleman to shift uneasily in his seat. Well he might. I should like to remind him exactly of what his noble Friend Lord Barnett, who served the Labour party so well, said in his seminal work which I read and re-read and which I commend to the hon. Member for Hodge Hill:
"Given what has gone before we"—
that is the Labour party—
"might be tempted to promise or at least imply that if elected we will: A. Reduce unemployment quickly; B. Increase public expenditure in many areas; C. Improve general living standards, especially for the low paid … It is therefore vital that Michael Foot"—
the dramatis personae have changed but the temptation and scenario are still the same—
"the new leader of the Labour party should make no rash promises."
Of course, the right hon. Member has made no promises at all. We are still left in enormous doubt as to what the policies of the Labour party are. He said at Brighton, if he is correctly reported, that he would support any policies that the Labour party cared to sketch out. He has moved into a new position. He is plainly going to encourage the Labour party to have no policies on this subject.
I want to contrast the extraordinary position of the right hon. Member for Sparkbrook with that of my right hon. Friend the Chancellor and the Government. I want to remind the House of the Government's achievements and the objectives which are embodied in my right hon. Friend's autumn statement. We have contained and we will continue to contain public expenditure. I hope that that reassures those of my hon. Friends who have made powerful contributions on that point. We published our figures for 1984–85 before the election, and we are sticking to them. There is no secret manifesto there. We have created a climate of confidence and stability.
Mr. Austin Mitchell: There are 4
million people unemployed.
Mr. Rees: We have reduced inflation to 5 per cent. this year and the figure is expected to be 4·5 per cent. by the end of next year. We have reduced the PSBR as a proportion of GDP. That is no mean feat in a period of recession, and we shall continue the pressures to reduce it further. We have, as a result, created conditions where
546
our base rates are lower than the United States prime rate.
We have created a climate in which investment will increase. I have already mentioned the CBI forecast of a 5 per cent. increase in manufacturing investment next year. We have created the conditions under which sustained growth is probable. It is expected to be 3 per cent. this year and 3 per cent. next year. The way to create sustainable jobs is by bringing about an increase and
We were the first western country into the recession and we are emerging ahead of our European Community partners.
For the future, we set as our objectives a continuing of pressure to reduce inflation and the reduction of the tax burdens, so that people can invest and create jobs. That is what we stood for during the last Parliament. It is what we put to the electorate in June and it is what the electorate overwhelmingly endorsed. That is the theme of the autumn statement, and I therefore invite the House to approve the statement and reject the Opposition amendment.
Question put, That the amendment be made:—
The House divided: Ayes 187, Noes 351.

Division No. 78]

[10.00 pm

AYES

Abse, Leo

Davies, Ronald (Caerphilly)

Adams, Allen (Paisley N)

Davis, Terry (B'ham, H'ge H'l)

Alton, David

Deakins, Eric

Anderson, Donald

Dewar, Donald

Archer, Rt Hon Peter

Dixon, Donald

Ashdown, Paddy

Dobson, Frank

Ashley, Rt Hon Jack

Dormand, Jack

Atkinson, N. (Tottenham)

Douglas, Dick

Bagier, Gordon A. T.

Dubs, Alfred

Banks, Tony (Newham NW)

Duffy, A. E. P.

Barnett, Guy

Eadie, Alex

Barron, Kevin

Eastham, Ken

Beckett, Mrs Margaret

Edwards, R. (W'hampt'n SE)

Beith, A. J.

Evans, loan (Cynon Valley)

Bell, Stuart

Evans, John (St. Helens N)

Bennett, A. (Dent'n & Red'sh)

Ewing, Harry

Bermingham, Gerald

Fatchett, Derek

Bidwell, Sydney

Faulds, Andrew

Blair, Anthony

Fields, T. (L'pool Broad Gn)

Boothroyd, Miss Betty

Fisher, Mark

Boyes, Roland

Forrester, John

Brown, Hugh D. (Provan)

Foster, Derek

Brown, N. (N'c'tle-u-Tyne E)

Foulkes, George

Brown, R. (N'c'tle-u-Tyne N)

Fraser, J. (Norwood)

Brown, Ron (E'burgh, Leith)

Freeson, Rt Hon Reginald

Bruce, Malcolm

Freud, Clement

Caborn, Richard

Garrett, W. E.

Callaghan, Rt Hon J.

Gilbert, Rt Hon Dr John

Callaghan, Jim (Heyw'd & M)

Godman, Dr Norman

Campbell, Ian

Golding, John

Canavan, Dennis

Gould, Bryan

Carlile, Alexander (Montg'y)

Hamilton, James (M'well N)

Carter-Jones, Lewis

Hamilton, W. W. (Central Fife)

Cartwright, John

Hardy, Peter

Clark, Dr David (S Shields)

Harman, Ms Harriet

Clay, Robert

Harrison, Rt Hon Walter

Cocks, Rt Hon M. (Bristol S.)

Hart, Rt Hon Dame Judith

Cohen, Harry

Hattersley, Rt Hon Roy

Coleman, Donald

Healey, Rt Hon Denis

Concannon, Rt Hon J. D.

Heffer, Eric S.

Conlan, Bernard

Hogg, N. (C'nauld & Kilsyth)

Cook, Frank (Stockton North)

Holland, Stuart (Vauxhall)

Cook, Robin F. (Livingston)

Home Robertson, John

Corbett, Robin

Hoyle, Douglas

Corbyn, Jeremy

Hughes, Mark (Durham)

Cowans, Harry

Hughes, Robert (Aberdeen N)

Craigen, J. M.

Hughes, Roy (Newport East)

Crowther, Stan

Hughes, Simon (Southwark)

Cunliffe, Lawrence

Janner, Hon Greville

Cunningham, Dr John

John, Brynmor

Davies, Rt Hon Denzil (L'lli)

Jones, Barry (Alyn & Deeside)

547

Kaufman, Rt Hon Gerald

Powell, Raymond (Ogmore)

Kilroy-Silk, Robert

Prescott, John

Kirkwood, Archibald

Radice, Giles

Lamond, James

Randall, Stuart

Lead bitter, Ted

Redmond, M.

Leighton, Ronald

Rees, Rt Hon M. (Leeds S)

Lewis, Ron (Carlisle)

Richardson, Ms Jo

Lewis, Terence (Worsley)

Roberts, Ernest (Hackney N)

Litherland, Robert

Robertson, George

Lloyd, Tony (Stretford)

Rooker, J. W.

Lofthouse, Geoffrey

Ross, Ernest (Dundee W)

Loyden, Edward

Ross, Stephen (Isle of Wight)

McCartney, Hugh

Rowlands, Ted

McDonald, Dr Oonagh

Ryman, John

McGuire, Michael

Sedgemore, Brian

McKelvey, William

Sheerman, Barry

Mackenzie, Rt Hon Gregor

Sheldon, Rt Hon R.

Maclennan, Robert

Shore, Rt Hon Peter

McTaggart, Robert

Silkin, Rt Hon J.

McWilliam, John

Skinner, Dennis

Madden, Max

Smith, C.(Isl'ton S & F'bury)

Marek, Dr John

Smith, Rt Hon J. (M'kl'ds E)

Marshall, David (Shettleston)

Snape, Peter

Martin, Michael

Spearing, Nigel

Mason, Rt Hon Roy

Steel, Rt Hon David

Maynard, Miss Joan

Stewart, Rt Hon D. (W Isles)

Meadowcroft, Michael

Stott, Roger

Michie, William

Straw, Jack

Millan, Rt Hon Bruce

Thompson, J. (Wansbeck)

Miller, Dr M. S. (E Kilbride)

Tinn, James

Mitchell, Austin (G't Grimsby)

Torney, Tom

Morris, Rt Hon A. (W'shawe)

Wainwright, R.

Morris, Rt Hon J. (Aberavon)

Wardell, Gareth (Gower)

Nellist, David

Wareing, Robert

Oakes, Rt Hon Gordon

White, James

O'Brien, William

Williams, Rt Hon A.

O'Neill, Martin

Winnick, David

Orme, Rt Hon Stanley

Woodall, Alec

Owen, Rt Hon Dr David

Wrigglesworth, Ian

Park, George

Young, David (Bolton SE)

Parry, Robert

Pavitt, Laurie

Tellers for the Ayes:

Pendry, Tom

Mr. Frank Haynes and Mr. Allen McKay.

Penhaligon, David

Pike, Peter

NOES

Aitken, Jonathan

Brooke, Hon Peter

Alexander, Richard

Brown, M. (Brigg & Cl'thpes)

Amery, Rt Hon Julian

Browne, John

Amess, David

Bruinvels, Peter

Ancram, Michael

Bryan, Sir Paul

Arnold, Tom

Buchanan-Smith, Rt Hon A.

Ashby, David

Buck, Sir Antony

Aspinwall, Jack

Budgen, Nick

Atkins, Rt Hon Sir H.

Bulmer, Esmond

Atkins, Robert (South Ribble)

Burt, Alistair

Atkinson, David (B'm'th E)

Butcher, John

Baker, Kenneth (Mole Valley)

Butler, Hon Adam

Baker, Nicholas (N Dorset)

Butterfill, John

Baldry, Anthony

Carlisle, John (N Luton)

Banks, Robert (Harrogate)

Carlisle, Kenneth (Lincoln)

Batiste, Spencer

Carttiss, Michael

Bendall, Vivian

Chalker, Mrs Lynda

Bennett, Sir Frederic (T'bay)

Chapman, Sydney

Berry, Sir Anthony

Chope, Christopher

Best, Keith

Churchill, W. S.

Bevan, David Gilroy

Clark, Hon A. (Plym'th S'n)

Biffen, Rt Hon John

Clark, Dr Michael (Rochford)

Biggs-Davison, Sir John

Clark, Sir W. (Croydon S)

Blaker, Rt Hon Sir Peter

Clarke Kenneth (Rushcliffe)

Bonsor, Sir Nicholas

Clegg, Sir Walter

Bottomley, Peter

Cockeram, Eric

Bowden, A. (Brighton K'to'n)

Colvin, Michael

Bowden, Gerald (Dulwich)

Conway, Derek

Boyson, Dr Rhodes

Coombs, Simon

Braine, Sir Bernard

Cope, John

Brandon-Bravo, Martin

Cormack, Patrick

Bright, Graham

Corrie, John

Brinton, Tim

Couchman, James

548

Crouch, David

Hordern, Peter

Currie, Mrs Edwina

Howard, Michael

Dickens, Geoffrey

Howarth, Alan (Stratf'd-on-A)

Dicks, T.

Howarth, Gerald (Cannock)

Dorrell, Stephen

Howell, Rt Hon D. (G'ldford)

Douglas-Hamilton, Lord J.

Howell, Ralph (N Norfolk)

du Cann, Rt Hon Edward

Hubbard-Miles, Peter

Dunn, Robert

Hunt, David (Wirral)

Durant, Tony

Hunt, John (Ravensbourne)

Edwards, Rt Hon N. (P'broke)

Hunter, Andrew

Eggar, Tim

Hurd, Rt Hon Douglas

Emery, Sir Peter

Irving, Charles

Evennett, David

Jackson, Robert

Eyre, Reginald

Jenkin, Rt Hon Patrick

Fairbairn, Nicholas

Jessel, Toby

Fallon, Michael

Johnson-Smith, Sir Geoffrey

Favell, Anthony

Jones, Gwilym (Cardiff N)

Fenner, Mrs Peggy

Jones, Robert (W Herts)

Finsberg, Geoffrey

Jopling, Rt Hon Michael

Fletcher, Alexander

Joseph, Rt Hon Sir Keith

Fookes, Miss Janet

Kershaw, Sir Anthony

Forman, Nigel

Key, Robert

Forsyth, Michael (Stirling)

King, Roger (B'ham N'field)

Forth, Eric

King, Rt Hon Tom

Fowler, Rt Hon Norman

Knight, Gregory (Derby N)

Fox, Marcus

Knight, Mrs Jill (Edgbaston)

Franks, Cecil

Knowles, Michael

Fraser, Peter (Angus East)

Knox, David

Freeman, Roger

Lamont, Norman

Fry, Peter

Lang, Ian

Gale, Roger

Latham, Michael

Galley, Roy

Lawler, Geoffrey

Gardiner, George (Reigate)

Lawrence, Ivan

Gardner, Sir Edward (Fylde)

Lawson, Rt Hon Nigel

Garel-Jones, Tristan

Lee, John (Pendle)

Gilmour, Rt Hon Sir Ian

Leigh, Edward (Gainsbor'gh)

Glyn, Dr Alan

Lennox-Boyd, Hon Mark

Goodhart, Sir Philip

Lester, Jim

Goodlad, Alastair

Lewis, Sir Kenneth (Stamf'd)

Gorst, John

Lightbown, David

Gow, Ian

Lilley, Peter

Gower, Sir Raymond

Lloyd, Ian (Havant)

Grant, Sir Anthony

Lloyd, Peter, (Fareham)

Greenway, Harry

Lord, Michael

Gregory, Conal

Luce, Richard

Griffiths, E. (B'y St Edm'ds)

Lyell, Nicholas

Griffiths, Peter (Portsm'th N)

McCrindle, Robert

Grist, Ian

McCurley, Mrs Anna

Ground, Patrick

Macfarlane, Neil

Grylls, Michael

MacGregor, John

Gummer, John Selwyn

MacKay, Andrew (Berkshire)

Hamilton, Hon A. (Epsom)

MacKay, John (Argyll & Bute)

Hamilton, Neil (Tatton)

Maclean, David John.

Hampson, Dr Keith

Macmillan, Rt Hon M.

Hanley, Jeremy

McNair-Wilson, M. (N'bury)

Hannam, John

McNair-Wilson, P. (New F'st)

Hargreaves, Kenneth

McQuarrie, Albert

Harris, David

Madel, David

Harvey, Robert

Major, John

Haselhurst, Alan

Malins, Humfrey

Havers, Rt Hon Sir Michael

Malone, Gerald

Hawkins, Sir Paul (SW N'folk)

Maples, John

Hawksley, Warren

Marland, Paul

Hayes, J.

Marlow, Antony

Hayhoe, Barney

Marshall, Michael (Arundel)

Hayward, Robert

Mates, Michael

Heath, Rt Hon Edward

Maude, Francis

Heathcoat-Amory, David

Maxwell-Hyslop, Robin

Heddle, John

Mayhew, Sir Patrick

Henderson, Barry

Mellor, David

Heseltine, Rt Hon Michael

Merchant, Piers

Hickmet, Richard

Meyer, Sir Anthony

Hicks, Robert

Miller, Hal (B'grove)

Higgins, Rt Hon Terence L.

Mills, Iain (Meriden)

Hind, Kenneth

Mills, Sir Peter (West Devon)

Hirst, Michael

Miscampbell, Norman

Hogg, Hon Douglas (Gr'th'm)

Moate, Roger

Holland, Sir Philip (Gedling)

Monro, Sir Hector

Holt, Richard

Montgomery, Fergus

Hooson, Tom

Moore, John

549

Morris, M. (N'hampton, S)

Smith, Tim (Beaconsfield)

Morrison, Hon P. (Chester)

Soames, Hon Nicholas

Moynihan, Hon C.

Speed, Keith

Mudd, David

Spence, John

Murphy, Christopher

Spencer, D.

Neale, Gerrard

Spicer, Jim (W Dorset)

Needham, Richard

Spicer, Michael (S Worcs)

Nelson, Anthony

Squire, Robin

Neubert, Michael

Stanbrook, Ivor

Newton, Tony

Steen, Anthony

Nicholls, Patrick

Stern, Michael

Norris, Steven

Stevens, Martin (Fulham)

Onslow, Cranley

Stewart, Allan (Eastwood)

Oppenheim, Philip

Stewart, Ian (N Hertf'dshire)

Osborn, Sir John

Stradling Thomas, J.

Ottaway, Richard

Sumberg, David

Page, John (Harrow W)

Tapsell, Peter

Page, Richard (Herts SW)

Taylor, John (Solihull)

Parris, Matthew

Taylor, Teddy (S'end E)

Patten, Christopher (Bath)

Tebbit, Rt Hon Norman

Patten, John (Oxford)

Temple-Morris, Peter

Pattie, Geoffrey

Terlezki, Stefan

Pawsey, James

Thomas, Rt Hon Peter

Peacock, Mrs Elizabeth

Thompson, Donald (Calder V)

Percival, Rt Hon Sir Ian

Thompson, Patrick (N'ich N)

Pink, R. Bonner

Thorne, Neil (Ilford S)

Pollock, Alexander

Thornton, Malcolm

Powell, Rt Hon J. E. (S Down)

Thurnham, Peter

Powell, William (Corby)

Townend, John (Bridlington)

Powley, John

Townsend, Cyril D. (B'heath)

Prentice, Rt Hon Reg

Tracey, Richard

Price, Sir David

Trippier, David

Proctor, K. Harvey

Trotter, Neville

Pym, Rt Hon Francis

Vaughan, Dr Gerard

Raffan, Keith

Viggers, Peter

Raison, Rt Hon Timothy

Waddington, David

Rathbone, Tim

Wakeham, Rt Hon John

Rees, Rt Hon Peter (Dover)

Waldegrave, Hon William

Renton, Tim

Walden, George

Rhodes James, Robert

Walker, Rt Hon P. (W'cester)

Rhys Williams, Sir Brandon

Wall, Sir Patrick

Ridley, Rt Hon Nicholas

Waller, Gary

Ridsdale, Sir Julian

Walters, Dennis

Rifkind, Malcolm

Ward, John

Rippon, Rt Hon Geoffrey

Wardle, C. (Bexhill)

Roberts, Wyn (Conwy)

Warren, Kenneth

Robinson, Mark (N'port W)

Watson, John

Roe, Mrs Marion

Watts, John

Rossi, Sir Hugh

Wells, Bowen (Hertford)

Rost, Peter

Wells, John (Maidstone)

Rowe, Andrew

Whitfield, John

Rumbold, Mrs Angela

Whitney, Raymond

Ryder, Richard

Wiggin, Jerry

Sackville, Hon Thomas

Winterton, Mrs Ann

Sainsbury, Hon Timothy

Wolfson, Mark

St. John-Stevas, Rt Hon N.

Wood, Timothy

Sayeed, Jonathan

Woodcock, Michael

Shaw, Giles (Pudsey)

Yeo, Tim

Shaw, Sir Michael (Scarb')

Young, Sir George (Acton)

Shelton, William (Streatham)

Younger, Rt Hon George

Shepherd, Colin (Hereford)

Silvester, Fred

Tellers for the Noes:

Sims, Roger

Mr. Carol Mather and Mr. Robert Boscawen.

Skeet, T. H. H.

Smith, Sir Dudley (Warwick)

Question accordingly negatived.
Main Question put:—
The House divided: Ayes 346, Noes 186.

Division No. 79]

[10.13 pm

AYES

Aitken, Jonathan

Aspinwall, Jack

Alexander, Richard

Atkins, Rt Hon Sir H.

Amery, Rt Hon Julian

Atkins, Robert (South Ribble)

Amess, David

Atkinson, David (B'm'th E)

Ancram, Michael

Baker, Kenneth (Mole Valley)

Arnold, Tom

Baker, Nicholas (N Dorset)

Ashby, David

Baldry, Anthony

550

Banks, Robert (Harrogate)

Fry, Peter

Batiste, Spencer

Gale Roger

Bendall Vivian

Galley, Roy

Bennett, Sir Frederic (T'bay)

Gardiner, George (Reigate)

Berry, Sir Anthony

Gardner, Sir Edward (Fylde)

Best, Keith

Garel-Jones, Tristan

Bevan, David Gilroy

Gilmour, Rt Hon Sir Ian

Biffen, Rt Hon John

Glyn, Dr Alan

Biggs-Davison, Sir John

Goodhart, Sir Philip

Blaker, Rt Hon Sir Peter

Goodlad, Alastair

Bonsor, Sir Nicholas

Gorst, John

Bottomley, Peter

Gow, Ian

Bowden, A (Brighton K'to'n)

Gower, Sir Raymond

Bowden, Gerald (Dulwich)

Grant, Sir Anthony

Boyson, Dr Rhodes

Greenway Harry

Braine, Sir Bernard

Gregory, Conal

Brandon-Bravo, Martin

Griffiths, E (B'y St Edm'ds)

Bright, Graham

Griffiths, Peter (Portsm'th N)

Brinton, Tim

Grist, Ian

Brooke, Hon Peter

Ground, Patrick

Brown, M (Brigg & Cl'thpes)

Grylls, Michael

Browne, John

Gummer, John Selwyn

Bruinvels, Peter

Hamilton, Hon A (Epsom)

Bryan, Sir Paul

Hamilton, Neil (Tatton)

Buchanan-Smith, Rt Hon A

Hampson, Dr Keith

Buck, Sir Antony

Hanley, Jeremy

Budgen, Nick

Hannam, John

Bulmer, Esmond

Hargreaves, Kenneth

Burt, Alistair

Harris, David

Butcher, John

Harvey, Robert

Butler, Hon Adam

Haselhurst, Alan

Butterfill, John

Havers, Rt Hon Sir Michael

Carlisle, John (N Luton)

Hawkins, Sir Paul (SW N'folk)

Carlisle, Kenneth (Lincoln)

Hawksley, Warren

Carttiss, Michael

Hayes, J

Chalker Mrs Lynda

Hayhoe, Barney

Chapman, Sydney

Hayward, Robert

Chope, Christopher

Heath, Rt Hon Edward

Churchill, W S

Heathcoat-Amory, David

Clark, Dr Michael (Rochford)

Heddle, John

Clark, Sir W (Croydon S)

Henderson, Barry

Clarke Kenneth (Rushcliffe)

Heseltine, Rt Hon Michael

Clegg, Sir Walter

Hickmet, Richard

Cockeram, Eric

Hicks, Robert

Colvin, Michael

Higgins, Rt Hon Terence L.

Conway, Derek

Hind, Kenneth

Coombs, Simon

Hirst, Michael

Cope, John

Hogg, Hon Douglas (Gr'th'm)

Cormack, Patrick

Holland, Sir Philip (Gedling)

Corrie, John

Holt, Richard

Couchman, James

Hooson, Tom

Crouch, David

Hordern, Peter

Currie, Mrs Edwina

Howard, Michael

Dickens, Geoffrey

Howarth, Alan (Stratf'd-on-A)

Dicks, T

Howarth, Gerald (Cannock)

Dorrell, Stephen

Howell, Rt Hon D (G'ldford)

Douglas-Hamilton, Lord J

Howell, Ralph (N Norfolk)

du Cann, Rt Hon Edward

Hubbard-Miles, Peter

Dunn, Robert

Hunt, David (Wirral)

Durant Tony

Hunt, John (Ravensbourne)

Edwards Rt Hon N (P'broke)

Hunter, Andrew

Eggar, Tim

Hurd, Rt Hon Douglas

Emery, Sir Peter

Jackson, Robert

Evennett, David

Jenkin, Rt Hon Patrick

Eyre, Reginald

Jessel, Toby

Fairbairn, Nicholas

Jones, Gwilym (Cardiff N)

Fallon, Michael

Jones, Robert (W Herts)

Favell, Anthony

Jopling, Rt Hon Michael

Fenner, Mrs Peggy

Joseph, Rt Hon Sir Keith

Finsberg, Geoffrey

Kershaw, Sir Anthony

Fletcher, Alexander

Key, Robert

Fookes Miss Janet

King, Roger (B'ham N'field)

Forman, Nigel

King, Rt Hon Tom

Forsyth, Michael (Stirling)

Knight, Gregory (Derby N)

Forth, Eric

Knight, Mrs Jill (Edgbaston)

Fowler, Rt Hon Norman

Knowles, Michael

Fox Marcus

Knox, David

Franks, Cecil

Lamont, Norman

Fraser, Peter (Angus East)

Lang, Ian

Freeman, Roger

Latham, Michael

551

Lawler, Geoffrey

Proctor, K. Harvey

Lawrence, Ivan

Pym, Rt Hon Francis

Lawson, Rt Hon Nigel

Raffan, Keith

Lee, John (Pendle)

Raison, Rt Hon Timothy

Leigh, Edward (Gainsbor'gh)

Rathbone, Tim

Lennox-Boyd, Hon Mark

Rees, Rt Hon Peter (Dover)

Lester, Jim

Renton, Tim

Lewis, Sir Kenneth (Stamf'd)

Rhodes James, Robert

Lightbown, David

Rhys Williams, Sir Brandon

Lilley, Peter

Ridley, Rt Hon Nicholas

Lloyd, Ian (Havant)

Ridsdale, Sir Julian

Lloyd, Peter, (Fareham)

Rifkind, Malcolm

Lord, Michael

Rippon, Rt Hon Geoffrey

Luce, Richard

Roberts, Wyn (Conwy)

Lyell, Nicholas

Robinson, Mark (N'port W)

McCrindle, Robert

Roe, Mrs Marion

McCurley, Mrs Anna

Rossi, Sir Hugh

Macfarlane, Neil

Rost, Peter

MacGregor, John

Rowe, Andrew

MacKay, Andrew (Berkshire)

Rumbold, Mrs Angela

MacKay, John (Argyll & Bute)

Ryder, Richard

Maclean, David John.

Sackville, Hon Thomas

Macmillan, Rt Hon M.

Sainsbury, Hon Timothy

McNair-Wilson, M. (N'bury)

St. John-Stevas, Rt Hon N.

McNair-Wilson, P. (New F'st)

Sayeed, Jonathan

McQuarrie, Albert

Shaw, Giles (Pudsey)

Madel, David

Shaw, Sir Michael (Scarb')

Major, John

Shelton, William (Streatham)

Malins, Humfrey

Shepherd, Colin (Hereford)

Malone, Gerald

Silvester, Fred

Maples, John

Sims, Roger

Marland, Paul

Skeet, T. H. H.

Marlow, Antony

Smith, Sir Dudley (Warwick)

Marshall, Michael (Arundel)

Smith, Tim (Beaconsfield)

Mates, Michael

Soames, Hon Nicholas

Maude, Francis

Speed, Keith

Maxwell-Hyslop, Robin

Spence, John

Mayhew, Sir Patrick

Spencer, D.

Mellor, David

Spicer, Jim (W Dorset)

Merchant, Piers

Spicer, Michael (S Worcs)

Meyer, Sir Anthony

Squire, Robin

Miller, Hal (B'grove)

Stanbrook, Ivor

Mills, Iain (Meriden)

Steen, Anthony

Mills, Sir Peter (West Devon)

Stern, Michael

Miscampbell, Norman

Stevens, Martin (Fulham)

Moate, Roger

Stewart, Allan (Eastwood)

Monro, Sir Hector

Stewart, Ian (N Hertf'dshire)

Montgomery, Fergus

Stradling Thomas, J.

Moore, John

Sumberg, David

Morris, M, (N'hampton, S)

Tapsell, Peter

Morrison, Hon P. (Chester)

Taylor, John (Solihull)

Moynihan, Hon C.

Taylor, Teddy (S'end E)

Mudd, David

Tebbit, Rt Hon Norman

Murphy, Christopher

Temple-Morris, Peter

Neale, Gerrard

Terlezki, Stefan

Needham, Richard

Thomas, Rt Hon Peter

Nelson, Anthony

Thompson, Donald (Calder V)

Neubert, Michael

Thompson, Patrick (N'ich N)

Newton, Tony

Thorne, Neil (Ilford S)

Nicholls, Patrick

Thornton, Malcolm

Norris, Steven

Thurnham, Peter

Oppenheim, Philip

Townend, John (Bridlington)

Osborn, Sir John

Townsend, Cyril D. (B'heath)

Ottaway, Richard

Tracey, Richard

Page, John (Harrow W)

Trippier, David

Page, Richard (Herts SW)

Trotter, Neville

Parris, Matthew

Vaughan, Dr Gerard

Patten, Christopher (Bath)

Viggers, Peter

Patten, John (Oxford)

Waddington, David

Pattie, Geoffrey

Wakeham, Rt Hon John

Pawsey, James

Waldegrave, Hon William

Peacock, Mrs Elizabeth

Walker, Rt Hon P. (W'cester)

Percival, Rt Hon Sir Ian

Wall, Sir Patrick

Pink, R. Bonner

Waller, Gary

Pollock, Alexander

Walters, Dennis

Powell, Rt Hon J. E. (S Down)

Ward, John

Powell, William (Corby)

Wardle, C. (Bexhill)

Powley, John

Warren, Kenneth

Prentice, Rt Hon Reg

Watson, John

Price, Sir David

Watts, John

552

Wells, Bowen (Hertford)

Woodcock, Michael

Wells, John (Maidstone)

Yeo, Tim

Whitfield, John

Young, Sir George (Acton)

Whitney, Raymond

Younger, Rt Hon George

Wiggin, Jerry

Winterton, Mrs Ann

Tellers for the Ayes:

Wolfson, Mark

Mr. Carol Mather and Mr. Robert Boscawen.

Wood, Timothy

NOES

Abse, Leo

Foster, Derek

Adams, Allen (Paisley N)

Foulkes, George

Alton, David

Fraser, J. (Norwood)

Anderson, Donald

Freeson, Rt Hon Reginald

Archer, Rt Hon Peter

Freud, Clement

Ashdown, Paddy

Garrett, W. E.

Ashley, Rt Hon Jack

Gilbert, Rt Hon Dr John

Atkinson, N. (Tottenham)

Godman, Dr Norman

Bagier, Gordon A. T.

Golding, John

Banks, Tony (Newham NW)

Gould, Bryan

Barnett, Guy

Hamilton, James (M'well N)

Barron, Kevin

Hamilton, W. W. (Central Fife)

Beckett, Mrs Margaret

Hardy, Peter

Beith, A. J.

Harman, Ms Harriet

Bell, Stuart

Harrison, Rt Hon Walter

Bennett, A. (Dent'n & Red'sh)

Hart, Rt Hon Dame Judith

Bermingham, Gerald

Hattersley, Rt Hon Roy

Bidwell, Sydney

Heffer, Eric S.

Blair, Anthony

Hogg, N. (C'nauld & Kilsyth)

Boothroyd, Miss Betty

Holland, Stuart (Vauxhall)

Boyes, Roland

Home Robertson, John

Brown, Hugh D. (Provan)

Hoyle, Douglas

Brown, N. (N'c'tle-u-Tyne E)

Hughes, Mark (Durham)

Brown, R. (N'c'tle-u-Tyne N)

Hughes, Robert (Aberdeen N)

Brown, Ron (E'burgh, Leith)

Hughes, Roy (Newport East)

Bruce, Malcolm

Hughes, Simon (Southwark)

Caborn, Richard

Janner, Hon Greville

Callaghan, Rt Hon J.

John, Brynmor

Callaghan, Jim (Heyw'd & M)

Jones, Barry (Alyn & Deeside)

Campbell, Ian

Kaufman, Rt Hon Gerald

Canavan, Dennis

Kilroy-Silk, Robert

Carlile, Alexander (Montg'y)

Kirkwood, Archibald

Carter-Jones, Lewis

Lamond, James

Cartwright, John

Leadbitter, Ted

Clark, Dr David (S Shields)

Leighton, Ronald

Clay, Robert

Lewis, Ron (Carlisle)

Cocks, Rt Hon M. (Bristol S.)

Lewis, Terence (Worsley)

Cohen, Harry

Litherland, Robert

Coleman, Donald

Lloyd, Tony (Stretford)

Concannon, Rt Hon J. D.

Lofthouse, Geoffrey

Conlan, Bernard

Loyden, Edward

Cook, Frank (Stockton North)

McCartney, Hugh

Cook, Robin F. (Livingston)

McCrea, Rev William

Corbett, Robin

McDonald, Dr Oonagh

Corbyn, Jeremy

McGuire, Michael

Cowans, Harry

McKelvey, William

Craigen, J. M.

Mackenzie, Rt Hon Gregor

Crowther, Stan

Maclennan, Robert

Cunliffe, Lawrence

McTaggart, Robert

Cunningham, Dr John

McWilliam, John

Davies, Ronald (Caerphilly)

Madden, Max

Davis, Terry (B'ham, H'ge H'l)

Marek, Dr John

Deakins, Eric

Marshall, David (Shettleston)

Dewar, Donald

Martin, Michael

Dixon, Donald

Mason, Rt Hon Roy

Dobson, Frank

Maynard, Miss Joan

Dormand, Jack

Meadowcroft, Michael

Douglas, Dick

Michie, William

Dubs, Alfred

Millan, Rt Hon Bruce

Duffy, A. E. P.

Miller, Dr M. S. (E Kilbride)

Eadie, Alex

Mitchell, Austin (G't Grimsby)

Eastham, Ken

Morris, Rt Hon A. (W'shawe)

Evans, loan (Cynon Valley)

Morris, Rt Hon J. (Aberavon)

Evans, John (St. Helens N)

Nellist, David

Ewing, Harry

Oakes, Rt Hon Gordon

Fatchett, Derek

O'Brien, William

Faulds, Andrew

O'Neill, Martin

Fields, T. (L'pool Broad Gn)

Orme, Rt Hon Stanley

Fisher, Mark

Owen, Rt Hon Dr David

Forrester, John

Park, George

553

Parry, Robert

Skinner, Dennis

Pavitt, Laurie

Smith, C.(Isl'ton S & F'bury)

Pendry, Tom

Smith, Rt Hon J. (M'kl'ds E)

Penhaligon, David

Snape, Peter

Pike, Peter

Spearing, Nigel

Powell, Raymond (Ogmore)

Steel, Rt Hon David

Prescott, John

Stewart, Rt Hon D. (W Isles)

Radice, Giles

Stott, Roger

Randall, Stuart

Straw, Jack

Redmond, M.

Thompson, J. (Wansbeck)

Rees, Rt Hon M. (Leeds S)

Tinn, James

Richardson, Ms Jo

Torney, Tom

Roberts, Ernest (Hackney N)

Wainwright, R.

Robertson, George

Wardell, Gareth (Gower)

Rooker, J. W.

Wareing, Robert

Ross, Ernest (Dundee W)

White, James

Ross, Stephen (Isle of Wight)

Williams, Rt Hon A.

Rowlands, Ted

Winnick, David

Ryman, John

Woodall, Alec

Sedgemore, Brian

Wrigglesworth, Ian

Sheerman, Barry

Young, David (Bolton SE)

Sheldon, Rt Hon R.

Shore, Rt Hon Peter

Tellers for the Noes:

Short, Mrs R (W'hampt'n NE)

Mr Frank Haynes and Mr. Allen McKay.

Silkin, Rt Hon J.

Question accordingly agreed to.
Resolved,
That this House approves the Autumn Statement presented by Mr. Chancellor of the Exchequer on 17 November; welcomes the continuing prospect of low inflation and steady growth; and congratulates Her Majesty's Government on keeping the public expenditure planning total for 1984–85 unchanged at the level published in the 1983 Public Expenditure White Paper (Cmnd. 8789).

Autumn Statement
  SELECT COMMITTEES

    AGRICULTURE
    Motion made,
    That Mr. Richard Body, Mr. Robin Corbett, Mr. David Harris, Mr. Michael Lord, Mr. Albert McQuarrie, Miss Joan Maynard, Mr. James Nicholson, Mr. John Spence and Mr. Tom Torney be members of the Agriculture Committee.—[Sir Philip Holland, on behalf of the Committee of Selection.]
    Rev. William McCrea: Object.
    Mr. Speaker: Objection taken. Does the hon. Member for Mid-Ulster (Rev. William McCrea) intend to object also to the following motions?

    DEFENCE
    That Sir Humphrey Atkins, Mr. John Cartwright, Mr. Churchill, Mr. Dick Douglas, Mr. Bruce George, Dr. John Gilbert, Mr. Edward Leigh, Mr. Michael Marshall, Mr. Michael Mates, Mr. Keith Speed and Mr. Neil Thorne be members of the Defence Committee.
    EDUCATION, SCIENCE AND ARTS
    That Mr. Martin Flannery, Mr. Clement Freud, Mr. Harry Greenway, Mr. Sean Hughes, Mr. Robert Key, Mr. Terry Lewis, Sir William van Straubenzee, Dr. Gerard Vaughan and Mr. George Walden be members of the Education, Science and Arts Committee.
    EMPLOYMENT
    That Mr. Gordon Brown, Mr. Ken Eastham, Mr. John Gorst, Mr. Greville Janner, Mr. Ron Leighton, Mr. Gerry Neale, Mrs. Elizabeth Peacock, Mr. Andrew Rowe and Mr. Peter Thurnham be members of the Employment Committee.

    ENERGY
    That Mr. Kevin Barron, Dr. Michael Clark, Mr. J. D. Concannon, Mr. Robert Hayward, Mr. Ted Leadbitter, Mr. Ian
    554
    Lloyd, Mr. Geoffrey Lofthouse, Mr. Gerald Malone, Mr. Michael Morris, Mr. Peter Rost and Mr. Tony Speller be members of the Energy Committee.

    ENVIRONMENT
    That Mr. Richard Alexander, Mr. David Alton, Mr. Sydney Chapman, Mr. Reginald Eyre, Mr. Reg Freeson, Mr. Robert B. Jones, Mr. Norman Miscampbell, Mr. Allan Roberts, Sir Hugh Rossi, Mr. Chris Smith and Mr. John Mark Taylor be members of the Environment Committee.
    FOREIGN AFFAIRS
    That Mr. Dennis Canavan, Sir Anthony Kershaw, Mr. Ivan Lawrence, Mr. Jim Lester, Mr. Ian Mikardo, Mr. Mark Robinson, Mr. Norman St. John Stevas, Mr. Nigel Spearing, Mr. Peter Thomas, Mr. Bowen Wells and Mr. Michael Welsh be members of the Foreign Affairs Committee.
    HOME AFFAIRS
    That Mr. Gerald Bermingham, Miss Janet Fookes, Sir Edward Gardner, Mr. Jeremy Hanley, Mr. John Hunt, Mr. Robert Kilroy-Silk, Mr. Fergus Montgomery, Clare Short, Mr. Ivor Stanbrook, Mr. John Wheeler and Mr. David Winnick be members of the Home Affairs Committee.
    INDUSTRY AND TRADE
    That Mr. Lewis Carter-Jones, Mr. Stan Crowther, Sir Peter Emery, Mr. Robert McCrindle, Mr. Michael Martin, Mr. Robin Maxwell-Hyslop, Mr. Geoffrey Robinson, Mr. Martin Stevens, Mr. Teddy Taylor, Mr. Charles Wardle and Mr. Kenneth Warren be members of the Industry and Trade Committee.
    SCOTTISH AFFAIRS
    That Mr. Malcolm Bruce, Mr. Tom Clarke, Mr. John Come, Mr. Nicholas Fairbairn, Mr. Michael Forsyth, Dr. Norman A. Godman, Mr. Barry Henderson, Mr. Michael Hirst, Mr. David Lambie, Mrs. Anna McCurley, Mr. William McKelvey, Sir Hector Monro and Mr. Bill Walker be members of the Scottish Affairs Committee.
    SOCIAL SERVICES
    That Mr. David Crouch, Mrs. Edwina Currie, Mr. Roy Galley, Mr. Ron Lewis, Mr. Tony Lloyd, Mr. Michael Meadowcroft, Sir David Price, Mrs. Renée Short and Mr. Nicholas Winterton be members of the Social Services Committee.
    TRANSPORT
    That Mr. Gordon A. T. Bagier, Mr. David Gilroy Bevan, Mr. Sydney Bidwell, Mr. Harry Cowans, Mr. Den Dover, Mr. Peter Fry, Mr. Roger King, Mr. David Mudd, Mr. Matthew Parris, Mr. Stephen Ross and Mr. Neville Trotter be members of the Transport Committee.
    TREASURY AND CIVIL SERVICE
    That Mr. Anthony Beaumont-Dark, Mr. John Browne, Mr. Nicholas Budgen, Mr. Mark Fisher, Mr. Terence L. Higgins, Mr. Ralph Howell, Mr. Peter Lilley, Mr. Austin Mitchell, Mr. Brian Sedgemore, Mr. John Townend and Mr. Richard Wainwright be members of the Treasury and Civil Service Committee.

    WELSH AFFAIRS
    That Mr. Robert Harvey, Mr. Tom Hooson, Mr. Peter Hubbard-Miles, Mr. Gwilym Jones, Dr. John Marek, Sir Anthony Meyer, Mr. Ray Powell, Mr. Keith Raffan, Mr. Stefan Terlezki, Mr. Gareth Wardell and Mr. Dafydd Wigley be members of the Welsh Affairs Committee.
    Rev. William McCrae: Yes, Sir.
    Mr. Speaker: So be it. Objection taken to motions Nos. 3 to 15.

Lebanon
10.26 pm
Motion made, and Question proposed, That this House do now adjourn.—[Mr. Garel Jones.]
Mr. Mark Lennox-Boyd: When I looked at my notes earlier today I saw that I had drafted four speeches on the middle east and endorsed them all "Never made". I am therefore particularly grateful to you, Mr. Speaker, for having selected my subject for debate tonight, as I am sure my hon. Friend the Minister of State is grateful for the fact that we can debate it at such a comparatively convenient hour.
The two subjects of the Lebanon and the West Bank are related, because, of course, the Palestinian question exists in each. The bloody tragedy of the Lebanon overshadows an equally ugly situation on the West Bank. The failure to secure a political solution on the West Bank precipitated—at the very least—the Israeli invasion of the Lebanon. The situation in Lebanon is a matter for our Parliament. We have a major interest because of the British troops who are serving in the multinational force.
We were reluctant participants in the MNF, for we came in later than the other parties. However, I am glad to say that our political reluctance to be involved in the initial stages has in no way undermined the great skill, forbearance, tolerance and courage of our troops who are serving there. I know that all hon. Members would like to extend their admiration to them and pay tribute to them for what they are doing.
We must analyse why they are there. I believe that the Government sent our troops to serve with the MNF for two important reasons. The primary reason was to assist a frail but friendly Government whom we thought at the time might have the support of the people of the Lebanon after a period of stability. We also thought at the time that stability was possibile, because we felt that the revulsion of the people in the Lebanon after so many years of bloodshed and horror would make people feel that stability was a better way of life for them. The people were war weary.
However, there was a subsidiary reason for the MNF—not so much supported by the British Government, but certainly supported by the United States—and it was to get the Israelis off the hook. They wanted to withdraw their troops—if not completely, certainly from a large part of the Lebanon—but they were frightened of the vacuum that would be left by their departure.
From the Israeli point of view, the MNF was in some respects a buffer. It has long been Israeli policy to create buffers in southern Lebanon, but this time it was not to be Christian Arab militias, but soldiers of the West. This subsidiary reason had no merit for British interests, or indeed for United States interests. Israel is still deeply committed in the Lebanon. The Israelis occupy one third of the country, and the buffer provided by the MNF, such as it is, operates only in Beirut.
Whatever merits there were at the time for our being there, the situation in that unhappy country has so disintegrated that our present reason for being there is not as we first thought, because we believe that the Government may have the support of the people after a period of stability—which clearly does not exist at present—but because we believe that the Government may be persuaded to enlarge their constituent parts, to
556
widen their representation of interests in the Lebanon, so that they acquire the support of the people, and hence stability emerges. I believe that that positon is fraught with danger and uncertainty, involving as it does complex political judgments into which we might most reluctantly be drawn.
Our troops should not be in the Lebanon, although I recognise that it would be most unwise to withdraw them precipitately. However, all parties have reiterated that their troops are temporarily there. I earnestly ask my hon. Friend the Minister of State, when considering these difficult matters, to face our United States allies, and other allies who are similarly exposed, with this question: in what positive circumstances do they envisage that it would be appropriate for their troops in the MNF to be withdrawn?
It is so easy to see the negative circumstances. Indeed, we have seen two examples of the negative circumstances in which public opinion in America and France might call for the withdrawal of troops. It is so much harder, even with a giant leap of optimism, to envisage the type of political stabilility in which the Americans could say, in a positive frame of mind, that the job is now done and our men can come home. This question must be faced if we are not prepared—and I am sure that we are not—for an MNF presence to be continued for a long time. There is a grave risk that our troops will end up like the UNIFIL, troops and the other United Nations forces in Sinai, while being exposed to far greater danger.
I should like to dwell for a few moments on the position on the West Bank and how it affects the Lebanon. The terrible tragedy of the Lebanon has, since the Israeli invasion in 1982, completely overshadowed an equally grave political tragedy on the West Bank of the Jordan. The savage irony is that had Mr. Begin's Government been prepared to make practical political progress on the position on the West Bank—they had more than enough chances—they might not have found it necessary to invade the Lebanon in the first place. A further dreadful irony is being enacted before our eyes. The powerful forces of immoderation in the PLO have recently been attempting to destroy Mr. Yasser Arafat and his supporters and finish the job for their implacable enemies, the Israelis.
Those of us who know some of the sensible people from the West Bank, who supported the moderate wing of the PLO, warned that if the Israelis could not be persuaded to work on the Reagan peace initiative when it was launched in September 1982 the moderates in the PLO, who did want to work on that plan, would be savagely exposed to the extremists in their own movement. That is precisely what we are seeing today.
It is easy, and indeed right, to condemn the Syrian involvement in this dreadful affair, but that condemnation must not divert attention from the fact that the Israeli response to the Reagan peace initiative was to tear it up, and for good measure to establish yet another handful of settlements on the West Bank of the Jordan. We all know that my hon. Friend the Minister of State has recently been in Jerusalem. I hope that when he replies to the debate he will say something about his recent visit.
I shall illustrate as graphically as I can, with a simple story, the nature of occupation. I was there just over a year ago. It is easy for the casual observer from the West to imagine that all is not too bad in the occupied territories. There is not a great deal of bloodshed. In the main, people

557
are at work. One sees smiles—one often does in Palestine. One is also surrounded by the long tired faces of people who wish that circumstances were otherwise. However, it is not all negative, which it appears to be on the surface.
A casual observer could easily be mislead, because occupation leads to duplicity. I had this little experience when I was there. I stayed in a hotel in east Jerusalem. The doorman was always polite and friendly. He opened the door of my car and fetched taxis, always smiling and helpful. He had no knowledge of my political views or allegiances, why I was in Jerusalem, or who I supported. I realised that he had to live, eat and do his job, and no doubt, as would any sensible person in his position, he was looking forward to a little present at the end of my stay.
One day the doorman turned to me and said, "Are you one of us?" With that remark, I realised something that had not struck me forcibly before. He realised that I was a friend and identified me as one of them. The duplicity that he would have maintained with most people was no longer appropriate. Those words demonstrated to me what it is like to be made to feel inferior in one's own country.
The occupation of the West Bank is not just unjust, but, much more important, these people are the living evidence, the flesh and blood testimony, of a great political opportunity that is being missed. An ancient Hebrew saying goes:
"Wanting too much leaves you with nothing."
The opportunities that have been missed in the West Bank are lost to us as well and we have every right, indeed an obligation, to condemn those who are responsible.
10.37 pm
The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Mr. Richard Luce): I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Morecambe and Lunesdale (Mr. Lennox-Boyd) on initiating this Adjournment debate on what is undoubtedly a singularly important subject. My hon. Friend knows the middle east well. He has considerable experience of that area. That makes the debate all the more valuable.
I am glad that my hon. Friend opened his remarks by drawing a direct connection between the Lebanon and the Arab-Israeli problem. He is absolutely right to do so. I believe that the Lebanon would not be in the condition that it is in today had a proper solution been found years ago to the Arab-Israeli problem. I am glad that he brought that wider problem to the House's attention. I shall make a few remarks about it before I refer to my hon. Friend's points about the Lebanon.
I have started a series of visits, to which my hon. Friend referred. I have been to the Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Egypt. Shortly I shall go to Syria, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries. My first impression, following my last visit, is that there is no movement at all in the Arab-Israeli problem—that there is stagnation and a great deal of despair; that the Israelis are deeply anxious about their security, and that includes their northern borders and their relationship with Lebanon; that the Arab Governments are deeply concerned that extremism will increase in the Arab world if no progress is made on the problem; and—I must say this in response to my hon. Friend, having made a visit to the West Bank—that the Palestinians are close to despair about their future.
558
We see a lack of any progress towards a peaceful settlement in the Arab-Israel problem; we see continuing internal struggles within the PLO; and we see the persistent pursuit of the construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank area and in Gaza, which we regard as being both illegal and wrong in itself. Indeed, for any party to this problem to think that to continue along these lines is to their advantage must be totally and utterly wrong because this stagnation in the longer term can only lead to more violence, more terrorism, more extremism and to the danger of more of the wars that we have already seen in the middle east. In short, there will, if the present policy is pursued, be no winners. All—literally all—will be losers.
It is against that background that Her Majesty's Government believe that there is an urgent need for renewed vigour in the peace process. The parties themselves must take the lead, but the British Government stand ready, and are anxious, to help, in conjunction, of course, with the European Community and our allies and with other parties.
There are already a wide range of concepts and plans on the table from which enough common themes exist to enable the parties to move forward and for progress to be made. I mention, for example, the Venice declaration of the European Community in 1980, which contains the cardinal principles that we believe are essential to any solution: the right of Israel to exist within secure boundaries and the right of the Palestinians to self-determination.
We have resolution 242 which, to summarise, exhanges territory for peace. We have the Fez declaration, where the Arab countries moved forward in expressing their desire for all parties—and, by implication, we must assume Israel—to have the right to live in peace. We have the Camp David treaty between Egypt and Israel in which, I remind the House, the British are playing a modest role, with 35 soldiers, in helping to maintain the implementation of that treaty. We also have the Reagan plan, which we continue to believe is a basis on which the parties should be able to move forward.
Before coming to the question of the Lebanon, I have a point to make concerning the West Bank and Gaza, the occupied territories. The limited, but constructive, objectives of the British Government is to give some assistance to the Palestinian inhabitants in the Lebanon. Within the scope of limited resources, the Government are considering how best to direct any further bilateral and multilateral aid so as to benefit the Palestinian inhabitants in the occupied territory. I hope that that will be seen as an intimation of our desire to do something constructive, and I hope that other countries, including those in the Community, will be able to give further assistance.
I wish to respond to what my hon. Friend said about the Lebanon. He is right to put forward the anxieties of the House and many people in this country, about the situation in the Lebanon and our responsibility to our 100 soldiers who are carrying out a very remarkable task.
The debate gives me an opportunity to state what the Government are trying to achieve. First, we must go back to the beginning and ask ourselves what is the British interest and objective in the Lebanon? Surely, it is to help to provide conditions whereby peace, reconcilation, territorial integrity and the full authority of a Lebanese Government throughout the whole of the Lebanon can be

559
created. In short, we wish to see a stable and independent Lebanon—the type of Lebanon that we saw in the 1950s and 1960s.
If that is not the objective, I suggest that the running sore of total instability in the Lebanon would pose and continue to pose a general threat to the stability of the entire middle east. The stability of the entire middle east is of grave concern to Britain and the western world, let alone to the parties to the dispute in the middle east.
Against that background, I ask the House to consider the main ingredients that we believe to be essential to achieving our objective. There must be a successful implementation of the ceasefire, a successful reconciliation between the Lebanese parties, the withdrawal of all foreign forces, the re-establishment of Lebanese authority throughout that country, and thereafter—I wish to stress this point—international support for reconstruction of that country. Britain has already announced that it stands ready to make such a contribution.
I wish to deal with the question posed by my hon. Friend about the multinational force and the British role. We must ask ourselves, why are we there at all? When we made our initial contribution in February, we thought that it was important to respond positively to a request from the Lebanese Government, which was encouraged by many of our friends in the middle east, including Arab Governments, and those in Europe. The request was one which would. in the opinion of the Lebanese Government, fulfil the principles that I have outlined to the House.
Could the House imagine what might have been the position in the Lebanon today—very serious though it is—had no multinational force from the United States, France, Italy or Britain, been in existence?

What are we doing there? The mandate for our presence in that country is confined to assisting the Lebanese Government and armed forces in the Beirut area only for the restoration of Lebanese Government Sovereignty and authority in the greater Beirut area. We are fulfilling two specific tasks. First, we are patrolling the main streets of Beirut with the use of Scout cars, and secondly, we are guarding the ceasefire commission, which I regard as of great importance. That commission continues to operate. We guard it at the request of all the parties, which is a sign of the trust that they all have in the contribution that our soldiers can make.
I was lucky enough to see our soldiers in the Lebanon for myself, and I join my hon. Friend in paying tribute to the magnificant job that they do in Beirut. They are respected by all the parties, and I have noticed in the past
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few months that their contribution has been warmly welcomed by many moderate Arab Governments and by Israel. Their presence enables us to play a constructive role out of all proportion to the number of our troops there.
I turn to the safety of those troops. Of course we all understand the difficulties and dangers that face them, and the Lebanon as a whole. Such matters remain uppermost in our minds, and we are always looking for ways of securing and strengthening their safety. That remains one of our priorities. The House will be aware of further measures that we have taken veryrecently to protect our soldiers, including additional logistic support.
However, I should like to commend the remarkable work of the British Embassy, which now has a new ambassador, Mr. David Myers. My hon. Friend asked whether we should consider leaving the Lebanon and pulling out our troops, and, if so, in what circumstances. Against the background of the objectives that I have just described, we keep our presence in Beirut under constant review. We believe that there is no point in staying if we reach a point at which we are no longer carrying out a useful role. We have no intention of staying there indefinitely, but equally we have no intention of carrying out—as my hon. Friend suggested—a precipitate withdrawal. That would not be sensible. On the contrary, our desire is to do our best to help to create the conditions as rapidly as possible that will enable us to withdraw.
Therefore, all the Government's efforts must be, and are being, concentrated on working with other parties. including principally the other contributors to the multinational force, members of the EC as well as other parties to the problem, with a view to promoting the achievement of the overall objective that I have mentioned as quickly as possible. Despite all the tragic events in the Lebanon and the surrounding area, there are some signs that progress is being made. A ceasefire came into existence after my visit—although not as a result of it—and there is progress towards some reconciliation between the parties. We very much hope that President Gemayel, who is undertaking several tours, will come to Britain shortly to discuss these issues, and we can then express our views again to him.
I thank my hon. Friend for initiating this Adjournment debate. I hope that he feels reassured that the Government sense all the difficulties and dangers but that we are at the same time continuing to fulfil a constructive role.
Question put and agreed to.
Adjourned accordingly at six minutes to Eleven o'clock.

ENERGY
  Gas and Electricity
  Gas and Electricity
  Atomic Energy Authority Constabulary
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  Petroleum Stocks (Amendment) Order
  Petroleum Stocks (Amendment) Order
  Fuel Bills (Discounts)
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  Non-Government Bodies (Payments)
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CIVIL SERVICE
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TRANSPORT
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HOME DEPARTMENT
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ENVIRONMENT
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SOCIAL SERVICES
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NATIONAL FINANCE
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  Association of Cinematograph Television and Allied Technicians
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  Non-Government Bodies (Payments)
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AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FOOD
  Windscale (Fish Supplies)
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  Non-Government Bodies (Payments)
  Radioactive Waste
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  Torry Research Station
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  Poultrymeat
  Poultrymeat
NORTHERN IRELAND
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  Gas
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  Civil Servants (Travel Costs)
  Civil Servants (Travel Costs)
  Overseas Personnel
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  Employment Schemes
  Employment Schemes
  Non-Government Bodies (Payments)
  Non-Government Bodies (Payments)
  Prisons
  Prisons
  Neonatal Intensive Care Cots
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  Community Midwives
  Community Midwives
  Assembly
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  Kilroot Power Station
  Kilroot Power Station
  Londonderry Enterprise Zone
  Londonderry Enterprise Zone
  Health and Social Services (Privatisation)
  Health and Social Services (Privatisation)

Preamble
The House met at three of the clock (Prayers having been read earlier at the Judicial Sitting by the Lord Bishop of Hereford): The LORD CHANCELLOR on the Woolsack.
The Lord Grenfell—Took the Oath.

The GLC: Rates
Lord Boyd-Carpenter: My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.
The Question was as follows:
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether any part of the rate support grant paid to the Greater London Council is used for the production of The Londoner and whether the use of ratepayers' money for party political purposes should be referred to the district auditor.
The Minister of State, Department of the Environment (Lord Bellwin): My Lords, since the GLC—as a result of its own budget decisions—is not in receipt of rate support grant for 1983–84, I am glad to say that taxpayers' money is not being used to meet the cost of this publication, which has been reported as an incredible £610,000. It must be for London ratepayers, on whom this burden falls, themselves to raise with the auditor any question about expenditure of their money on the publication.
Lord Boyd-Carpenter:My Lords, while thanking my noble friend for that reply and rejoicing in it as a taxpayer, may I as a London ratepayer, however, ask him whether it is in accordance with the honourable traditions of local government to use ratepayers' money for the production of a paper which, although because of its cheap mendacity is unlikely to be of very considerable political effect, is plainly a party political organ; and whether if the district auditor does not move on this, he is earning his pay?
Lord Bellwin:My Lords, I thank my noble friend for his observations within his question. Certainly it is not within the honourable traditions—that is about the last thing that it is—but it has to be said that the auditor has to adjudicate in each case on every issue, if you like, that is brought to him, and I hope that he will look very carefully at the most recent one.
Lord Graham of Edmonton: My Lords, does the noble Lord the Minister recall that when this matter was raised in the House in March last year he indicated to the House that these matters had been drawn to the attention of the district auditor and that the district auditor was considering any action that he might take? In view of that, can the Minister tell the House what action the district auditor did take either then or later? Would the Minister also bear in mind that, under the Local Government Planning and Land Act, it was his
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Government which laid a duty upon local authorities to publicise their activities and when passing stricture of a political nature will he deal also with Tory Westminster as well as Socialist GLC?
Lord Bellwin: My Lords, the Act is quite clear it is open to ratepayers to question each and every issue. The conclusion that the auditor may have reached on earlier issues would clearly seem to indicate that no action was to be taken by him, otherwise we should have heard of it. I think it is equally fair to say, however, that the degree of politicisation in the most current issues of not just this publication but others by other authorities, is becoming more and more extreme, and it is therefore again for the auditor, if called upon by the ratepayers, to adjudicate in each case. That is the position.
Lord Harris of Greenwich: My Lords, is it not only the Greater London Council but a number of other—an increasing minority—local authorities which are doing this? Is the noble Lord not aware that many people are becoming increasingly disturbed about the use by local authorities of these newspapers for party political purposes? Also, is he aware that the district auditor system really has not in the past provided any answer to this problem? Accordingly, what action is he contemplating taking to deal with it?
Lord Bellwin: My Lords, I am aware, and indeed the noble Lord is quite right, that there are a number of authorities which go well beyond the point which the noble Lord, Lord Graham, made earlier. I think that he would probably be the first to agree with me, if we sat down together and looked at them, that there is always a balance of what is fair and sensible and reasonable in presenting one's own case as to what one is doing as an authority. Not only is there no objection to that; the Government feel it is desirable. There is a point and that point is being reached again and again. As to what the Government do about it, they have to watch carefully and decide. These are not issues which can lightly or easily be acted upon. There are great principles at stake here and we have to be very careful about them.
Lord Renton: My Lords, is my noble friend aware that The Londoner is not distributed to those London households who inhabit parts of London which could be regarded as no hope areas for Marxists? What conclusions does he draw from that practice?
Lord Bellwin: My Lords, the conclusion I draw from what my noble friend says is that I am wondering in what category they place me, because I receive it.
Lord Jenkins of Putney: My Lords, is not the proper conclusion to draw from that that this is careful husbandry and indicative of an attitude which the noble Lord should support? Will he not answer this question since he says this is a matter for the ratepayers, why has he removed from the ratepayers their traditional right to express their opinion on this and other matters at the ballot box?
Lord Bellwin: My Lords, I am sure that the noble Lord does not expect me to reiterate the whole story of

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the ballot box. The fact is that he knows as well as I do—or if he does not, he should do—that the number of people who actually register their vote at the ballot box, as against those who are paying as ratepayers the full rates for this kind of publication, is somewhere around about one-fifth of the people—that is all.
The Earl of Lauderdale: My Lords, would my noble friend not agree that there is anxiety on this question in all parts of the House? This is not merely a Tory propaganda stunt. There has been support from the Alliance Benches on the other side. There is manifest anxiety opposite where they sit silent or smug, as the case may be; and therefore is not a very serious review by the Government of the whole problem called for?
Lord Bellwin: My Lords, I hear what my noble friend says and I have to concur with him on one thing that the degree of concern about this is rising very much indeed as matters become more and more extreme. I can today do no more than say that I note carefully what is said and the feelings in the House.
Lord Glenamara: My Lords, can I ask the noble Lord whether he has seen the letters sent out with rate demands by the Westminster City Council which are blatantly anti-Labour political propaganda? That council is in receipt of rate support grant. What does he intend to do about that?
Lord Bellwin: My Lords, the observations I made apply to all authorities; they would have no credence if they did not do so, and I am not here to attack or defend any authority on its own. It is the principle that we are all concerned with and if that goes, then there is much more loss than we are discussing today.
Viscount St. Davids:My Lords, is the noble Lord aware that I live in a part of London which apparently earns rather high marks from the Greater London Council and that we have many causes to groan, indeed to over-groan, when we see every copy of this paper (another one having arrived today) and know that it is our already enormous rates which are being spent on it?
Lord Bellwin: My Lords, I can only hear and sympathise with what the noble Lord says.
Lord Boyd-Carpenter: My Lords, in the light of the reference of the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, to the duty of a local authority to publicise itself, can my noble friend say whether it is possible to reconcile that admirable objective with the publication of a document the front page of which is mainly occupied by an offensive cartoon of the Prime Minister?
Lord Bellwin: My Lords, I am sure that all your Lordships will deplore that type of publication using that type of propaganda.
Lord Ardwick: My Lords, is the noble Lord aware that, although there may be anxiety on this side about this new practice, there is anxiety about another thing? I do not think that there is in the length and breadth of
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Britain a single local newspaper which gives support to the Labour party, particularly to local Labour councils. Although many local newspapers are neutral, many are unfair. I do not know of a single newspaper which gives Labour solid support, as in some areas there is solid support for Conservative administrations.
Lord Bellwin:My Lords, that is very wide of the Question. I do not feel obliged to answer it.

Traffic Control: Road Markings
3.10 p.m.
Lord Gisborough: My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.
The Question was as follows:
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they are satisfied with the positioning of the solid double and solid and dotted white line system on public highways.
Lord Lucas of Chilworth:My Lords, the criteria for the installation of double white lines are given in chapter 5 of the Traffic Signs Manual issued by the Department of Transport of which there is a copy in the Library of the House. Highway authorities are advised to ensure that double white lines conform to these criteria. My right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Transport is satisfied that the criteria are generally well observed.
Lord Gisborough: My Lords, I thank my noble friend for that Answer. May I ask whether he agrees that, in principle, double white lines have made a great contribution to safety? Will he agree, however, that the system has proliferated, and that the man with the paint brush has almost indiscriminately painted the roads to try and take away the decisions of the motorist? Does he agree that the system is therefore likely to come into disrepute? Has my noble friend noticed that there are many places where the dotted line indicates that one can overtake but where it would be quite dangerous to do so; and, vice versa, places where one cannot overtake but where relative speeds indicate that it is safe to do so? Does my noble friend not agree that the system should be confined to particular areas, perhaps crests and dangerous corners, so that the effectiveness of it is not cheapened by overuse?
Lord Lucas of Chilworth: My Lords, I can understand my noble friend's concern in this matter. Solid white lines are installed only when forward visibility falls below a certain value. The value used in the criteria is the safe stopping distance related to the speed of traffic. There has to be a measure of control through the double line system and the good sensibility of the driver. I might perhaps draw my noble friend's attention to paragraphs 78 and 85 of the Highway Code, which go to some length in explaining the criteria that drivers should observe when overtaking.
Lord John-Mackie: My Lords, can the noble Lord explain what one does when one comes to an area of white hatched lines? We know what to do when we come to yellow hatched areas, but what about these enormous areas of white hatched lines? What are you supposed to do on one of those?
Lord Lucas of Chilworth: My Lords, it depends how the hatching is contained. If the hatching is contained in a solid white line, that is a prohibited area and it would be an offence to cross over those hatched lines. If one was apprehended, one might find a penalty of three points against the 12 in the list of penalty points. If, however, the hatching is contained by a dotted line, an interrupted white line, that is an advisory warning, and the noble Lord would take his life and perhaps someone else's into his hands were he to cross over that danger area.
Lord Mowbray and Stourton: My Lords, is my noble friend aware that if he were to respond to the blandishments of my noble friend who asked this Question he would cause much dismay in many people's hearts?
Lord Lucas of Chilworth:My Lords, I am sure that my noble friend is right.
Lord Underhill: My Lords, does the noble Lord understand that a considerable number of motorists—the majority of motorists—recognise that these markings are for their own safety? If there is any difficulty, could the department consider using radio or television spots from time to time to draw attention to these and possibly other important points?
Lord Lucas of Chilworth: My Lords, the setting down of white lines on trunk roads is the responsibility of the department. It is, however, the local highway authority which is responsible for the white lines in its own area. Most white lines are in urban areas. It is therefore a local matter involving local people and local decisions.
Lord Underhill:My Lords, I think the noble Lord has mistaken what I asked. There seems to be confusion about, or a tendency to ignore, these markings, which are valuable to us. I was asking whether publicity on the correct use of them by motorists could be given on radio and television.
Lord Lucas of Chilworth: My Lords, my department already spends a good deal of money on advising motorists through television and by other publicity. But certainly the point that the noble Lord makes will be borne in mind when we review our publicity programmes.
Lord John-Mackie: My Lords, would the noble Lord like to accompany me one day so that I can show him areas where it is impossible not to go on to hatched areas contained by solid lines?
Lord Lucas of Chilworth: My Lords, if the noble Lord would like to write to me explaining where the difficulty that he perceives arises, I will have it investigated through the regional office and write to him. That might save both of us a lot of time.
Lord Gisborough: My Lords, would my noble friend not agree that there are not only the double solid lines, the solid lines dotted on one side or the other and the solid lines hatched with dotted lines, but also single dotted lines, single intermittent lines, long intermittent lines, solid lines that go down the side, and so on? Does he not think that it has become rather a dog's breakfast?
Lord Lucas of Chilworth: My Lords, no. It is quite simple for a reasonably intelligent motorist to study the Highway Code, and he will find no great difficulty. I should add, perhaps, that all signing on our roads conforms with international standards.

Firearms Certificate Legislation
3.16 p.m.
Lord Gridley: My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.
The Question was as follows:
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether there is any intention to amend current firearms certificate legislation.
Baroness Trumpington: My Lords, we have no plans to do so at present, but we shall continue to keep the matter under close review.
Lord Gridley: My Lords, I thank my noble friend for that Answer. Is it not a fact that in 1982 the Home Office made a decision to increase the fees on firearms certificates? Is so, when will that legislation come into effect? How will it affect the shotgun?
Baroness Trumpington: My Lords, it was eventually decided not to revise the fee levels until after the working party that had been established to review the administration of the Firearms Act 1968 had reported. The working party has nearly completed its task, and a fresh review of fee levels will be made early in 1984.
Lord Elwyn-Jones:My Lords, in view of the fact that the use of shotguns in relation to crimes of violence has become a serious national problem, what has been the response of the Government to the concern expressed by the police about the ease with which shotguns are readily available and readily transferable to criminals?
Baroness Trumpington: My Lords, of the 8,400 notifiable offences involving firearms recorded in 1982, nearly two-thirds were minor offences involving air weapons. That does not mean that there is not cause for concern. Of course, there is, but the matter must be kept in perspective and looked at against the rise in crime generally. In 1982, as in previous years, firearms were used in only about 0.25 per cent of all notifiable offences.
Lord Harris of Greenwich: My Lords, is the noble Baroness aware that in the police service, in particular among senior officers, there is widespread concern about the existing state of the law? With great respect, she has not answered the noble and learned Lord, Lord

349
Elwyn-Jones, on this point. Is she aware that a situation in which a person can obtain firearms ammunition without having to demonstrate that he possesses a firearms certificate is inherently objectionable? Will she deal with both those questions, in particular the one put by the noble and learned Lord?
Baroness Trumpington: My Lords, first of all, I am aware that there is widespread concern, but I would contend that people who intend making illegal use of firearms will not worry whether or not they have a firearms certificate. The firearms certificate is really the only way in which control can be adequately maintained. Evidence of the source of weapons used in crime is very scarce, but it does not appear that the tightening of controls on legitimate owners would have any effect upon the number of weapons.
Lord Swansea: My Lords, would not my noble friend agree that under existing legislation the courts already have ample powers to deal with firearms offences, and that a more stringent use of those powers would be far more effective in reducing armed crime than would be the imposition of further restrictions on legitimate ownership?
Baroness Trumpington: My Lords, the penalties for offences under the Firearms Act are already severe—up to life imprisonment in some instances. The courts have a well-established policy of dealing more severely with offences involving firearms. That is clearly right. As part of the measures planned to strengthen the hands of those involved in the fight against crime, we have recently announced our intention to extend to life imprisonment the maximum penalty for carrying firearms in furtherance of crime.
Lady Saltoun: My Lords, will the Government consider making it compulsory for holders of firearms and shotgun certificates to be insured against third party risks?
Baroness Trumpington: My Lords, I have a great many answers to a great many questions, but I do not have the answer to that one.
Baroness Wootton of Abinger: My Lords, will the Minister confirm that it is legal to obtain a shotgun without signing any conditions about safe-keeping, and that a neighbour who owns five shotguns can hang them all on the front door for me to take if I wish?
Baroness Trumpington: My Lords, I think that the question of the noble Baroness is a little wide of the original Question. However, a person who hands a gun to somebody should be aware whether the recipient holds a certificate.
Lord Elwyn-Jones: My Lords, in view of the disquiet which I think exists and which has been manifested in the House, will the noble Baroness communicate that concern to the Home Secretary and, in particular, find out what response has been made to the request by the police authorities—who
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have to face men with shotguns—that something should be done about control?
Baroness Trumpington: My Lords, of course I shall pass on the message of the noble and learned Lord. Many of the suggestions would actually overburden the police, rather than help them.

Postgraduate Teaching Students: Degree Content
3.22 p.m.
Baroness David: My Lords. I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.
The Question was as follows:
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether students intending to enter teaching by the Post-Graduate Certificate of Education route will be prevented from so doing if their first degree is not in a subject related to the school curriculum.
The Earl of Swinton: My Lords, this Government intend that new entrants to the teaching profession should have the best possible preparation for their role. They are currently considering advice from the Advisory Committee on the Supply and Education of Teachers (ACSET) on improvements for initial teacher training in England and Wales, including a recommendation that institutions offering postgraduate courses of initial teacher training should satisfy themselves that the content of a candidate's initial degree relates appropriately to the curriculum of primary or secondary schools, whichever is relevant. The Government will make their views known as soon as possible.
Baroness David: My Lords, I thank the Minister for that moderately reassuring reply. However, would he not agree that any restrictions of that type would make no logical or educational sense for teachers of primary schools? Indeed, would it really make much difference whether the first degree was in mediaeval history, architecture, philosophy or social anthropology?
The Earl of Swinton: My Lords, I would agree that it would be difficult to single out a particular degree subject as being suitable or unsuitable for an intending school teacher. We acknowledge that the title of a degree course may not he a good guide to its content, and it is the latter which is important. No particular degree course has been named as unsuitable. Without anticipating the decision of my right honourable friend in the light of the advice he has received, I shall venture only to remark that the White Paper anticipates a force of primary school teachers equipped to teach across the broad range of the curriculums as classroom teachers, yet also to contribute a particular teaching strength to the school as a whole. If the PGCE student is to measure up to the requirements I should have thought it important that the foundations of academic knowledge should be there before he or she embarks on a short professional training course.
Baroness David:My Lords, could the Minister ask the Secretary of State and his colleagues to make quite

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sure that, when decisions are made in this matter, the students will have plenty of warning about what is going to happen so that it is not after they have started on their first degree or have reached their third year that they know that they have chosen an inappropriate subject?
The Earl of Swinton: Yes, my Lords, I shall certainly draw that to the attention of my right honourable friend.
Lord Taylor of Blackburn: My Lords, regardless of what has been said so far in connection with the curriculum, the Minister must be aware that the curriculum is the responsibility of the governors of the school?
The Earl of Swinton: Yes, my Lords, I do not see where the difficulty lies. Presumably they look for a teacher who wants to teach that particular curriculum or subject.
Lord Bowden: My Lords, is it not true that in some countries all teachers are expected to be graduates? I am sure that someone could tell us for certain whether that is so. Is it not true in Scotland that all teachers in schools, except the most elementary, are required to be graduates, but that there is no particular connection between the subject in which they graduated and the subject which they are required to teach?
The Earl of Swinton: My Lords, I can only answer for the United Kingdom, and probably better for certain parts than for others. I would not know about other countries. The noble Lord has referred to Scotland. Entrants to postgraduate secondary teacher training must have completed two years of degree level study in a subject relevant to the secondary school curriculum. There is no similar restriction for entrants to primary training, but the question of relevant degree study is being considered.

County Courts Bill [H.L.]
The Lord Chancellor (Lord Hailsham of Saint Marylebone): My Lords, I beg to introduce a Bill to consolidate certain enactments relating to county courts. I beg to move that this Bill be now read a first time.
Moved, That the Bill be now read a first time.—(The Lord Chancellor.)
On Question, Bill read a first time, and to be printed.

Repatriation of Prisoners Bill [H.L.]
Baroness Trumpington: My Lords, on behalf of my noble friend Lord Elton, I beg to introduce a Bill to make provision for facilitating the transfer between the United Kingdom and places outside the British islands of persons for the time being detained in prisons, hospitals or other institutions by virtue of orders made in the course of the exercise by courts and tribunals of their criminal jurisdiction. I beg to move that this Bill be now read a first time.
Moved, That the Bill be now read a first time.—(Baroness Trumpington.)
On Question, Bill read a first time, and to be printed.

Animal Health and Welfare Bill [H.L.]
The Minister of State, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (Lord Belstead): My Lords, I beg to introduce a Bill to amend the provisions of the Animal Health Act 1981 relating to the seizure of things for the purpose of preventing the spread of disease and to powers of entry, and to enable certain orders under that Act to operate in or over territorial waters; to amend the Slaughter of Poultry Act 1967; to enable provisions to be made for controlling the practice of artificial breeding of livestock; to repeal the Improvement of Livestock (Licensing of Bulls) Act 1931 and the Horse Breeding Act 1958; to amend the Medicines Act 1968 in relation to feeding stuffs and veterinary drugs, and for connected purposes. I beg to move that this Bill be now read a first time.
Moved, That the Bill be now read a first time.—(Lord Belstead.)
On Question, Bill read a first time, and to be printed.

Straw and Stubble Burning Prohibition Bill [H.L.]
Lord Alport: My Lords, I beg to introduce a Bill to make provision for the control of straw and stubble burning until 1989 and to prohibit it thereafter. I beg to move that this Bill be now read a first time.
Moved, That the Bill be now read a first time.—(Lord Alport.)
On Question, Bill read a first time, and to be printed.

Business of the House
The Lord President of the Council (Viscount Whitelaw): My Lords, I beg to move the Motion standing in my name on the Order Paper.
Moved, That leave be given to the Lord Gray of Contin to advance his Motion for approval of the Housing (Payment for Well Maintained Houses) (Scotland) Order 1983 from 1st December to 29th November.—(Viscount Whitelaw.)
On Question, Motion agreed to.

Somerset House Bill [H.L.]
3.29 p.m.
Lord Skelmersdale: My Lords, on behalf of my noble friend Lord Bellwin, I beg to move that this Bill be now read a second time. The Bill is a further illustration of this Government's concern to preserve the nation's heritage in the building field. Your Lordships have only to raise your eyes to the ceiling of this Chamber, or to examine the freshly revealed detail of the stonework of the West Front, to appreciate the commitment of successive Secretaries of State to this policy. Some of your Lordships will also have seen the

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exhibition mounted by the Property Services Agency in the Banqueting House in September; this showed some of the conservation work carried out by the agency in London in recent years. A register, published this summer, listed all the historic buildings in the department's care in London, and Somerset House, the subject of this Bill, is one of them.
Somerset House is a Grade I listed building, which was built in the 18th century on the site of the former Royal Palace of Somerset House. The latter had been built by Edward, Duke of Somerset, the Lord Protector, and was forfeit to the Crown after his execution in 1552. In 1775 George III consented to the demolition of the palace to make way for the first purpose-built Government office building. Sir William Chambers was appointed architect, and construction took some 25 years. The present King's College was erected as an additional wing in the same style between 1829 and 1834, and the so-called New Wing was added in the 1850s on the flank facing Waterloo Bridge.
The Royal Academy had been allowed to use rooms in the old palace, and the new building made provision for the proper housing of the academy, the Royal Society and the Society of Antiquaries. The rooms in the north block occupied by these bodies until a little over a century ago have become known as the Fine Rooms. In the last decade they have been restored to reveal much of the original decorative work that has survived. This includes fine plasterwork, mainly executed by Collins, and with painted decorations by Reynolds, Benjamin West, Angelica Kaufmann, Rigaud and Cipriani; elegant door furniture with medallion escutcheons, and two plaster casts, on loan from the Royal Academy, in the entrance hall.
The remainder of the building has interiors to the 18th century standard of office accommodation. Of particular note are the former Seamen's Hall, the Navy Board Room, the Navy Staircase and two rooms now occupied by the Board of the Inland Revenue. The courtyard to which the public have access is of course an important central feature of the whole architectural complex. These then are the architectural aspects of importance which my right honourable friend the Secretary of State wishes to protect; and which he wishes the public to be able to enjoy, through ready access, in so far as is consistent with the operational requirements of the Government departments which occupy wings other than the northern one.
The north block of Somerset House has not been fully used for many years, due to its unusual arrangement of space. Since it is generally easier to keep old buildings in good repair if they are in use, a suggestion by the University of London that they should lease this block for use by the Courtauld Institute was a welcome one. Not only should it ensure that the fabric of this block is properly maintained for many years to come, but it seems entirely appropriate that the Fine Rooms should be occupied once more by a body of this kind, and that fine pictures should again hang in these splendid rooms. Furthermore, this setting will do much, I am sure, to enchance the reputation of a collection of works of art that is perhaps less widely known than it deserves to be.
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On 1stNovember my right honourable friend announced that agreement in principle had been reached on the terms of a lease to the University. Under this agreement the university would meet the cost of converting the block for their use, and would in return enjoy favourable terms in respect of the rent they would pay. The capital cost to the university is expected to be some £3 million which the university hopes to obtain by means of a public appeal to be launched in February next year. The only obstacle in the way of implementing this agreement is that my right honourable friend has no power to grant leases of any part of this building. The Crown Lands Act of 1775 contains no provision which would allow use of the building for purposes other than that of Government offices. The Bill therefore seeks to give the Secretary of State such powers, which are of course powers that he already enjoys in respect of most other Crown freeholds for which he is responsible, including many historic buildings, such as the old War Office.
These powers are of course enabling powers, and noble Lords will appreciate that they cover the whole of Somerset House. This would give my right honourable friend flexibility in the future should any further leases be considered. It would avoid the necessity of taking up valuable parliamentary time, as has happened in the past, by the need for legislation for any individual lease, no matter how small the area concerned.
Noble Lords may be aware of the proposal that, following its merger with Queen Elizabeth and Chelsea Colleges, King's College should expand into all or part of the areas currently occupied by Government departments. My right honourable friend has recently discussed this proposal with representatives of King's College, including my noble friend Lord Jellicoe and the noble and learned Lord, Lord Cameron. Their vision of a new academic centre of excellence arising around Somerset House is both imaginative and inspiring. Rehousing of the existing occupants, from the Inland Revenue and the Lord Chancellor's department, would raise major practical and financial difficulties. I will not disguise from your Lordships that these difficulties would not be easy to surmount, but my right honourable friend has agreed that officials of the Property Services Agency should discuss the possibilities in more detail with King's College. This Bill should not be seen as prejudging, in any way, the outcome of that study.
This Bill seeks to enable my right honourable friend to conserve and to widen the public use and appreciation of a fine building which is an important element in our heritage. The Fine Rooms have for too long lain obscured. I beg to move.
Moved, That the Bill be now read a second time.—(Lord Skelmersdale.)
3.36 p.m.
Baroness Birk: My Lords, first, I should like to thank the Minister for introducing the Bill and for explaining it so clearly. He did not have to spend much time on it because it really is not much of a Bill—it is a very small enabling Bill. I should like to welcome the news that at last something is being done for Somerset House, which has had a long and chequered history

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and which in recent times has had a fate which it ill deserved.
When I was a Minister at the Department of the Environment from 1974 to 1978 it was a battle day after day, week after week, to try to get Somerset House used for the purposes for which it was intended—so that beautiful pictures could be shown in it. At one point I should like to have seen the Academy Great Room restored as it was from the end of the 18th century to the middle of the 19th century, with pictures all up the walls. But, in fact, that did not happen. At first there was an idea that it should be a theatre museum, for which it was completely unsuitable, and, fortunately, that was withdrawn.
Then the great crunch came and many of us wanted to see the Turner collection housed in Somerset House. I still believe that it could have been housed there. It would have been well received and looked after there, but unfortunately a combination of the National Gallery, which has a great many Turners, and the British Museum, which has the drawings, made that impossible.
Lord Annan: My Lords, if I may interrupt the noble Baroness for one moment, would she not agree that it was not the National Gallery which had so many Turners, but the Tate Gallery?
Baroness Birk: My Lords, I beg the noble Lord's pardon, yes, it was the Tate Gallery. The British Museum had the prints anddrawings—and I thought that the noble Lord was interrupting me on that—which they did not want shown in Somerset House. The opposition to this—and this is the main point—was so great that the matter was always left in limbo. In the early 1970s the rooms were done up; they were beautifully restored at great expense. It was heartbreaking to see the dust gather in those rooms in that wonderful building on a prime site on the river opposite the National Theatre, for people could have visited and enjoyed the building. As the noble Lord, Lord Skelmersdale, pointed out, Somerset House is part of our heritage and should be treated as such. During this period only the London and Thames Exhibition did this building any real justice.
We now have this Bill before us, but, in spite of the very fine, enthusiastic words uttered by the Minister, there are a great many questions to be asked about it. As the noble Lord pointed out, it is an enabling Bill. First, I must draw attention to Clause 1(1) which says:
"(1) Subject to the provisions of this section, the Secretary of State for the Environment may grant a lease of any part of Somerset House for such period as he thinks fit."
We also know that the lease is now being negotiated between the University of London and the Department of the Environment through the PSA. As I understand it, it has reached the stage that for the first 20 years the Courtauld Institute would have the building at a peppercorn rent and then for the following 30 years at a reduced rent. Therefore, although it is not, and I am told cannot be, stated in the Bill at this stage, the lease is intended to be not less than 50 years.
In the circumstances, which I shall briefly outline, in which the Courtauld will find itself, it is quite
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impossible to have a lease of this ridiculously short length. I would also point out that the lease of the Hampton's site by the National Gallery was a lease to the developers of 125 years. If it cannot be put in an enabling Bill then this must be covered in the lease now being negotiated. If it is a question of a reduced rent for only 50 years which is the stumbling block, then all that has to be said is that a lease would be issued for 125 years: at the end of 50 years the lease would then be renegotiated and the question of what the rent should be could then be looked at once again. Hopefully the Government at that time would be in a position to be able to be generous in their terms, and not go for what is intended at the moment as a full market rent.
Why is this so important? It is important and essential because the Courtauld must have some security. It must have security for the galleries, and it must have security for the other part which follows on—that is, the other part of the North Wing—which it is hoping to use for teaching purposes and also for libraries. The design and construction will be the responsibility of the University of London. but the department would accept responsibility for major and unforeseen structural work. I should like the Minister when he replies to comment on that and tell me that that is correct, and I hope he will be able to expand further on the proposed terms of the lease.
The way this is intended to be carried out is that the Courtauld would have to raise the money involved, apart from anything that arises for major structural and unforeseen repairs. This, I understand, is only if something arises due to the fact that this is an old Grade I building, and therefore is something that would he considered to be beyond the responsibility of the Courtauld Institute itself. The financial responsibilities are enormous, and the money would have to be raised by a public appeal. The Courtauld is short of funds. Indeed, it had to send a collection of valuable paintings to Tokyo, with all the risks involved, in order to raise some money to keep itself going.
It is proposed that the move should take place in two stages. Stage 1 would be the Fine Rooms, including the Royal Academy Great Room—those that were restored in the 'seventies. However, the, need repainting; the lighting is not adequate, as I am sure all noble Lords who have visited them know; the humidity has to be controlled in order to safeguard the paintings; and smoke detectors would have to be installed, because the danger of fire has always been one of the problems there. A new lift would have to be put in, a bookshop, cafeteria, lavatories, and also other facilities.
The cost of all this is estimated at the moment to be at least –1 million. I should have thought that –1 million for this was certainly on the low side. When in fact the work comes to be done, I think it is more than likely that the cost will be higher. These rooms are intended to contain the Seilern Collection, which is a wonderful collection left to the state. I had hoped to have seen it in Somerset House years ago, but in fact it has been stored away. With the proper financing, it would be able to go into Somerset House together with the Courtauld collection of famous impressionist and post-impressionist paintings.

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Stage 2, the rest of the North Block—that is the two wings and the extensive basement for the teaching activities of the institute and the libraries—would probably cost £3 million to £4 million. It should follow Stage 1 as soon as possible, although the institute itself is well aware that it cannot start on Stage 2 until it has sufficient money and Stage 1 has been completed. If the gap is too great it is going to make it more expensive. Also, as I think we are all aware, it is much more difficult to start something from scratch again than it is to continue when you have builders, architects and everybody else on the site.
The cost of the other part—the Stage 2—in rent would be around £100,000 a year, even when the capital for all this refurbishment has been raised by the Institute itself This means that altogether a figure of around £5 million is needed. This is a vast sum to find today, particularly by public appeal, even if attempts are made—as they will be—to try to get money from overseas as well.
Although I am sure they would be very welcome, this is not a question of getting small sums from individuals. It means enormous donations being given by a number of people, many of whom will have to be extremely wealthy business people or wealthy foundations. How are they going to view this when they have a prospectus put before them with no statement on the length of lease, and where as far as we know at the moment, although it is not in the Bill, the maximum appears to be 50 years? I do not think that anybody is going to buy that at all. They are not going to feel that the security of their investment—although it is in art and culture and not investment for themselves—is long enough, and they would be right to take that view.
The importance of the two stages being carried out one after the other is great, because it has always been the intention of the founders of the institute and the galleries that they should be housed under one roof. It is important because they are closely connected in their teaching and other activities. Therefore, a much more generous period is needed for the length of the lease. What is also needed is strong Government backing for the scheme. I have been told that the Minister for the Arts, the noble Earl, Lord Gowrie, has already promised his moral hacking for the scheme. I am glad that this is so, but moral backing is not enough.
What is needed is financial backing, and financial backing from the Government and not just from individuals responding to an appeal. I am in favour of as much sponsorship as one can get, business and private, but, as the noble Lord pointed out in introducing the Bill, this is an important part of our national heritage and it is something which belongs to the state, to the Government. The Government must play their part in helping to produce the finance for it, otherwise Somerset House will go on being left stranded and neglected as it is at the present time.
The Government must be prepared to make funds available in order to help the institute, and also to repay in some small way the generosity of the late Samuel Courtauld, who, during the war and in the period before the war, did so much to help bring over here art historians who were suffering and would probably not have lived if they had remained in Nazi
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Germany and Austria. In this country—and unfortunately this applies to all Governments—we are inclined to accept with gratitude the beautiful objects which are left to us, or given to us, like the Courtauld Collection and the Seilern Collection, but we do not always use them properly or show our gratitude in the right way, which is to furnish enough funds to be able to use and show things which are absolutely priceless, and not just have them stored away as they are at the present time.
If the appeal fails, the Government will then have the problem of having to find another suitable tenant for the Fine Rooms all over again. In view of the history of Somerset House, of which we are all aware and which was outlined by the Minister, this would be tragic. It would mean that another decade will go by with this beautiful building not being used, being neglected, and running further and further into decay. However, if the appeal succeeds and the Government give the backing that they should in this case, when the Institute vacates No. 19 to 21 Portman Square (where the Institute now is situated) the Department of Education and Science will have been saved the rent of £140,000 a year which it is paying to Portman Estates at the moment until the lease comes to an end.
We cannot let Somerset House continue as it is. It is unsatisfactory to be able to accept only what is in the Bill, though it may just be an introduction to something very much more substantial that the Government intend to do. However, as it stands it would be wrong for us to exhibit too much enthusiasm without hearing, as I hope we shall later from the Minister, that some of the necessary work on finance and length of lease will be undertaken.
I should like the Minister, if possible, to comment on amending the present Bill. I would not have any difficulty in putting forward some amendments which I think would improve the Bill enormously. If the Bill is an enabling Bill and what has to be covered has to be covered within the lease, we must know that this is going on at the same time as the Bill is before us. Before the Bill leaves this House we should know exactly what is intended in the lease. I hope that the Minister will be able to tell us, though I am sure he will not be able to give us all the details; but I should like to feel that we hear enough to encourage us so that we will, before the Bill leaves this House, have much more of an idea of the Government's intentions about the security of tenure and the financial terms. I have to reiterate that this marvellous building must not just be seen from the outside and be like an empty shell within. It should be seen and be used as the important part that it is of London's artistic and cultural life.
Lord Annan: My Lords, before my noble friend sits down, I wonder whether I heard her correctly when she said that the Count von Seilern gave his collection to the state? The Count von Seilern gave his collection, worth £30 million, to the Hume House Trustees, in whom also are vested the Courtauld paintings. That is why they are all ultimately under the University of London. When I was Vice-Chancellor I suggested to the Secretary of State that Somerset House would be a suitable place. May I also ask my noble friend another question? Has she the same impression as I have that Secretary of State after Secretary of State has been in

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favour of this proposal, that Minister after Minister has fought for this proposal, but that every time the question gets bogged down by the inter-service fighting between the civil servants in various departments?
Baroness Birk: My Lords, if I may have the indulgence of the House, I should like to answer my noble friend's first question. I seem to be getting nil today in exams on accuracy. He is absolutely right—I am sorry that I shorthanded it—but the collection was left to he used to the advantage of the country. That is what I meant. He is quite right, and I had the pleasure of being shown the von Seilern collection by him.
My noble friend's second point is absolutely true, but he has left out one important aspect, though perhaps he meant that when he mentioned the interdepartmental problem. This is the awful dead hand of the Treasury which slaps itself down on everything whichever Government is in power. It is the Treasury that we are also having to press all the time as well as the departments concerned. He is right that we have all been for it, but up to now nothing of any substance has been done. This is why, with the Bill before us, we must not let this opportunity pass of getting something really substantial off the ground.
3.55 p.m.
Lord Mancroft: My Lords, I am not certain whether this is a private fight, or a public fight, but whichever it is, I should like to join in. I wish to begin by offering my support to the Minister for the able way in which he put this important matter before us. If I can offer only moral backing, I hope that the noble Baroness will forgive me, but I am not in a position to offer anything more. Indeed, even my moral backing is not entirely disinterested. I shall explain why to your Lordships in about two or three minutes.
If your Lordships cast your minds back about 25 years, you may recall that we had a debate in this House on the subject of the private and domestic affairs of the Diplomatic Service—affairs abroad in the consulates and embassies in the far-flung corners of the world. One point that was frequently raised was the point which affects our debate today. It was that the pictures displayed in the British embassies and British consulates did not reflect the way of life, or our artistic heritage, as well as they should. That was so for different reasons. First, there was the niggardly behaviour of the Ministry of Works, as it then was, and the Treasury, which occasionally gave a very small grant for certain pictures to be hung in embassies. If they did not do so, the ambassador had to find the money out of his own pocket, and neither his pocket, nor his taste, might always have been up to public consideration.
The third way of providing pictures was to rely on skulduggery. This was by far and away the best way. One only has to look at the splendid picture of Byron in the British Embassy in Athens, or the picture of Dr. Johnson, by Joshua Reynolds, in the British Embassy in Washington, where a fine Constable also hangs in the drawing room. I say this with diffidence in the presence of so many ex-embassadors who have occupied both those posts, but I believe that those pictures were all acquired by the nimble wit, as well as
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the nimble fingers, of the ambassadors concerned, in the face of considerable opposition from the Ministry of Works, but with some support from the Foreign Office, which on that occasion was prepared to do wrong things for the right reasons, instead of, as usual, the other way round.
The debate on the subject was wound up by the Minister in charge (sitting in the place presently occupied by the noble Lord, Lord Skelmersdale), in a most cogent, lucid and farseeing speech. But unfortunately in the course of that speech I went too far. As Minister in charge, apart from agreeing with everything that people had said about pictures in the embassies, I suggested, rather rashly—this was 25 years ago—that we should find in London and elsewhere other buildings in which to hang pictures which were not hung at that moment. Although the cellars and attics of our national, provincial and municipal museums were crowded with pictures which could not be hung because there was not space on the walls, pictures could not be provided for the embassies abroad. One reason for that was that we were not allowed by law, or by the trust regulations governing the pictures, to export them to embassies abroad. That has now almost wholly been put right, and we can now do so.
I then went on to suggest that because we were so short of space we should look around, and, I asked, what was wrong with Somerset House? However, that was not in my brief. I was shot down from a very great height by those advising me, and those of your Lordships who have seen "Yes, Minister" will know just how far a Minister who goes beyond his brief can be shot down by those civil servants who desire to shoot him down.
Nevertheless, 25 years have passed, and we are now discussing this matter. I am glad to say that we have arranged for pictures to be put on embassy walls in greater profusion. Now we hear my noble friend Lord Skelmersdale explaining to us exactly how Somerset House can be put to very much better use.
The noble Baroness, Lady Birk, has raised a certain technical question, which must be properly dealt with. I had always understood that the building was destined to house the Seilern collection which I have myself had the privilege of seeing. Those of your Lordships who have not seen this collection have missed a very great treat, and I hope that it will soon come your way.
If your Lordships also doubt whether I am correct in saying that we do not have enough accommodation to hang the pictures which are available to us, I invite you to take one look tomorrow at the queues of people forming outside Burlington House to look at the magnificent collection of pictures from the Venetian Exhibition and also to go, in a month's time, to look at the queues or to join the queues—unless you are an old-age pensioner, as I am, and go to the top of them—outside the Tate Gallery and you will see the people waiting to look at John Piper's retrospective exhibition. We keep on talking about mugging and rioting in Luxembourg after football matches and other things which show what a dissolute and uncivilised country we are; but. on the other hand, look at queues outside the Tate, look at the queues outside Burlington House; and there is another side to the coin.

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I am glad therefore that the Government have put forward this additional scheme for providing more space for pictures. There are technicalities of course that have to be settled. The noble Lord will probably give us an answer and the noble Baroness will put down amendments in due course. But on a matter of principle I should like to support this Bill strongly, only adding a small, perilous footnote. Time after time we hear people say that there is far too much legislation in this country—not just bad legislation, not just good legislation, but just too much legislation. The hereditary and traditional visitor from Mars might very well look down upon us this afternoon and say, "Is it not really possible to put this matter right after 25 years of wrangling (which the noble Baroness, Lady Birk, has described to us) between civil servants, Government departments and other Government departments, without an Act of Parliament?" I will not add to the legislative burden by speaking any further save to ask your Lordships to support the noble Lord in his excellent Bill, particularly as it has such excellent antecedents.
4.2 p.m.
Lord Houghton of Sowerby: My Lords, I am sorry that I cannot congratulate the noble Lord the Minister on the way that he introduced this Bill. With great respect to him, I thought that he sounded like an enlightened estate agent reading particulars delivered of a prime property coming on the market for letting if only the landlord could get rid of the legal entanglements in the way of doing what he wished to do. I wish that the Minister had been more specific about what lies behind this Bill. For myself, if I thought that the Government were bent on evil—which lots of people think—I should say that it is a sinister little Bill. If I wanted to arouse prejudice on these Benches, I should say that this is the beginning of the privatisation of Somerset House. But I am not very clear what the Minister has in mind apart from freeing the hands of the Secretary of State for the Environment to do something with Somerset House that he cannot do at the present time.
This is part of our inheritance. I think that sometimes noble Lords are much more careful about their own inheritance than they are of the inheritance of the nation at large. This is part of our history. I have more than a passing interest in Somerset House. My noble friend Lord Plant and myself between us have trod the stones of Somerset House for the past 60 years trying to get better conditions, more satisfactory careers and more pay for the staff that work in it—a noble enterprise which we conducted with our customary dignity and cheerful spirit. My first contact with Somerset House was when I joined the Army in the First World War and then I saw the basement, the drill hall of the Civil Service Rifles, when two boys, aged just over 18, went to join the Army. One was named Henry Moore and the other was me. We joined together, strangely enough, the Civil Service Rifles. That was the first that I knew of Somerset House but I was to learn a great deal more about it later.
The noble Lord the Minister is telling us something of the history. Somerset House is a romantic place. If it were not associated with the Inland Revenue, it would he regarded as one of the tourist attractions of
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London. When I see that in this Bill the Minister is to "have regard … to the desirability"—the desirability, my Lords!—of the public having access to the quandrangle, well, the tourists would pour into it if they knew that Cromwell lay in state there and that Inigo Jones lived there and died there. And some strange doings took place in the Strand. Pepys said, "This day two soldiers were hanged in the Strand for their late meeting at Somerset House". I am not clear whether they were hanged because their meeting was late or whether they were late for the meeting. I have been late for meetings at Somerset House but, fortunately, by that time the death penalty had been removed for being late at meetings at Somerset House.
It is a romantic place. I have no objection to the Fine Rooms—so fine that they are so described with capital initials in the Explanatory Memorandum to the Bill. I have no objection to the Fine Rooms being returned to purposes similar to those that these rooms had many years ago. It was only when the Royal Academy and the Royal Society moved out that the Registrar General of Births, Marriages and Deaths moved into these Fine Rooms and was there for a very long time. The public sector was being enlarged then. Registration became compulsory in 1837 and they had to have an office where there could take place all this clerical work which previously had been confined to parish registers. So one sees how bureaucracy creeps in so as to have better order and government of the people. The Admiralty were there for a long time. But it has been almost wholly occupied by the Inland Revenue for over 100 years.
Not a word has been said about the possibility of commercial lettings. The noble Lord, Lord Mancroft, spoke as if the idea behind this Bill was for the glory of God, and art and pictures, the nation's treasures, culture and so on. That is the attraction of the Bill. But notice the words "other purposes" in the rubric to Clause 1. Clause 1(3) says,
"have regard to the architectural importance … and to the desirability of preserving public access to the courtyard."
Those are the only two conditions laid upon the Secretary of State in letting part of the building—or the whole of it, possibly—for "other purposes".
What other purposes? Are we going to have Cheatem and Twistem and Partners, consultants on tax avoidance and tax planning, given the address, "Somerset House"? My Goodness! What a rent they would pay to occupy part of Somerset House to carry on their trade as rivals to the other occupants of the building, to rub shoulders with the custodians of the nation's revenue, to go in the canteen and discuss the possibility of tax avoidance without being caught out. What a wonderful possibility it opens up by discriminating commercial lettings that the Secretary of State might feel disposed to make.
Your Lordships may say that this is a lot of rubbish and that he would not do anything of the kind. But the Government are trying to sell everything that they have; they are trying to turn everything into money. Quite frankly, I do not trust them not to turn Somerset House into money if they get the chance. I think that if there are purposes for which the Government wish to use Somerset House, they should come to the House and get sanction specifically for what they are proposing and not ask for "other purposes" to be

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brought into a Bill which excites the approval, the emotions and the romance of all of us for the better use of the "Fine Rooms."
Certainly those Fine Rooms can be used for much better purposes than those for which they were used for so long. The registration of births, marriages and deaths is no sort of vocation to take place inside the Fine Rooms of Somerset House. Then when they had to go and put a lot of their statistical work on to computers they cleared out and the Churchill Exhibition was held, and other uses have been found for the Fine Rooms. I distinguish between the provisions dealing with the Fine Rooms and the rest of the Bill. I shall certainly have amendments to put down to that part of the Bill which could open the door to the Secretary of State doing almost anything, within his own judgment, with Somerset House.
I ask for an express assurance that commercial lettings are not in any circumstances contemplated under this Bill. Let us have it clear and straight. I think that other Government offices might well be used for commercial purposes in due time or in certain circumstances. Perhaps no one would complain unduly if the old War Office was let to CND, or something: nobody would believe for a moment that anybody was going to take a letting in the old War Office in order to make war. But Somerset House has a connection with the Inland Revenue, and its activities and its place in the minds and hearts of the people is one which no other tenants should be allowed to usurp or to set aside.
That is it. This is a little Bill, but it has a very undesirable potential. I would conclude by saying this. I ask the Minister not to be afraid of troubling the House on important matters. We get troubled a great deal on very minor matters which nevertheless have an importance in the general pattern of parliamentary government. But when part of the heritage—a building like Somerset House—is made available for disposal, even for the most beneficent and desirable purposes, let us have it so that we know what is being done; otherwise, the Minister will come along and ask for freedom to let parts of this place. He will say that they are not being fully used, or that we could show pictures. After all, pictures would look very nice in your Lordships' House. And what about Buckingham Palace? Nothing is barred if the Minister gets freedom to do what he likes.
I am against Secretaries of State having discretion to do things of this kind without, presumably, a statutory instrument which would require approval of either House. So I am sorry; I cannot welcome the Bill. However much I would welcome the use of the Fine Rooms for the purposes indicated, I think they must be clearly differentiated from the other parts, which are covered in such broad terms and with so few conditions in the specifications of this Bill. There is trouble brewing, Minister—I warn you!
4.13 p.m.
Lord Teviot: My Lords, I shall be very brief. I very much welcome this Bill, and I must thank my noble friend for allowing us to be emotional, sentimental and reminiscent, which is just what I am going to be. I am going to join the club, because I spent many happy hours, if sometimes frustrating ones, clambering up
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the stairs or in the galleries pulling out the indexes of the births, marriages and deaths. I disagree that that was the wrong place for them to be, because to people all over the world Somerset House conjured up a picture of a place where pedigrees—births, marriages and deaths of their forebears—were lodged. That office was there for 137 years, from July 1837 to 1974, when it was moved to what is, I suppose, a perfectly functional building not very far away; and that building was a very expensive one.
I would ask my noble friend two small questions. First, what is the planned use of the old search rooms in the North Wing of Somerset House? Secondly, could there possibly be a small permanent exhibition at Somerset House depicting the history of the General Registry Office? I think that could be very important. I am delighted by the thought that at the end of 10 years of misery and decay in this noble building people will be thronging to it.
4.15 p.m.
Lord Donaldson of Kingsbridge: My Lords, I am sorry to speak without having put my name on the list. This was due to a fault between me and my chief which we have not yet resolved. I thought this Bill would go through in two minutes. Everybody must agree with the enabling power in this Bill. The one thing we want the Government to do is to let Somerset House for the purposes very clearly and, with respect to the noble Lord, Lord Houghton, very restrictively described in Clause 1. I am not quite clear what he is worrying about, but we shall come back to that.
However, it has been an opportunity for some splendidly cultivated speeches which I have enjoyed enormously. I will not imitate them, but would only say that I think we should pay tribute to the way we got this marvellous collection, which I and many other noble Lords have seen. It is perfectly splendid. It was Professor Johannes Wilde, of the Courtauld Institute, who was the acquaintance of the donor; and I must say here—because honour is due where it is due, particularly in places where it is not often given—that I was approached on this when I was a Minister by the late, lamented and unhappy Anthony Blunt, who was part of the Wilde team trying to get this out of the donor, because the donor wished to do something, as a condition of letting us have this collection, to which I could not possibly agree. It was not possible at all, and I was terribly afraid we might have lost it. However, we did not, and all is well.
As we have had a discussion of this kind, which I was not expecting. I must say that I agree with everything that my old colleague the noble Baroness has said. What matters here is that once you have done the first job, which is to get the Government to lease this marvellous building for the proper purposes, you have to see how it is going to be maintained. I took the trouble early last week to write to the Government to ask for information about this. Your Lordships will not be surprised to hear that I have not so far had an answer. The noble Lord on the Front Bench has given us some indication of the kind of expense involved, and the noble Baroness, Lady Birk, has given us an even bigger indication of the kind of expense involved. No one has suggested who is going to pay for it. This is what really matters. It did not occur to me that this

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was going to be the occasion for such a discussion. The occasion for that kind of dicussion is when a lease is granted and the University of London wants money to do the job properly. That is when we have got to weigh in and help them.
I do not think I can agree with the noble Lord, Lord Teviot, that it is better to have people coming to see a beautiful building for an unbeautiful purpose than for a beautiful one. I think it is far better that they should come in and look at wonderful pictures rather than at registers of births and deaths; but that is a matter of opinion. I do not think the noble Lord, Lord Houghton, is the least right in his fears. It is perfectly clear that under Clause 1 no part of this building can be let for any purpose other than that described in Clause 1, which includes the provision,
"shall have regard to the architectural importance of the building and to the desirability of preserving public access to its courtyard."
The thing that is really serious is that it is not enough simply to give this permission to lease, which we have all wanted to see happen, without any provision, or any discussion of the provision, which will be very high and is very important at a time when the Arts Council is asking for 110 million and is probably going to be offered £90 million. I do not know who is going to pay for this (whether it will be the Department of Education and Science, Environment or the Arts) but one of the Government departments must put up money to pay for the administration and the maintenance—and the maintenance is very difficult. Somerset House is so built that if you have two large crowds going up the stairs at the same time you are going to do damage. There must be people limiting the crowds all the way through. It will be an expensive and awkward job. But having joined in the cultivated discussion because it is irresistible, I should like to support the Bill.
4.20 p.m.
Lord Annan: My Lords, 1 hope that I may intervene for one moment—even though I have not put my name down to speak—to say how much I welcome this Bill. I should like to say that if in an intervention I made some faint criticism of the operations of the Civil Service in some respects, I want to pay tribute to the way in which the Treasury handled the whole question of Count von Seilern's will, which was a most difficult affair. We could have lost the painting to this country, had not enlightened Treasury officials cut through masses of red tape and settled the matter on entirely sensible terms, which were acceptable both to the Seilern family in Austria and to the Hume trustees, the University of London and the Courtauld Institute. That is an admirable example of how good civil servants can he when they put their minds to it.
I shall certainly join other noble Lords, when we reach the Committee stage of this Bill, in examining a little further what the noble Lord, Lord Skelmersdale, said about the financial arrangements between the University of London and the Government on this matter. But I should like to congratulate the noble Lord on having brought this Bill to the House and I wish it well.
4.22 p.m.
Earl Jellicoe:My Lords, I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Skelmersdale, will excuse me if I, like the noble
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Lord, Lord Donaldson, and the noble Lord, Lord Annan, tip-toe unannounced into this brief discussion. I do so for two reasons. First, I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Skelmersdale, will excuse me if I make a slight correction to his admirable remarks, on which I, too, congratulate him. He referred to my noble friend and colleague the Principal of King's College as the "noble and learned Lord". My noble colleague at King's is indeed immensely learned, but technically speaking he is more gallant than learned. There was, I think, a slight confusion between Lord Cameron and the other Lord Cameron, a distinguished Scottish judge, who is indeed technically learned as well as being immensely learned.
Secondly, I should like to say at this stage how grateful I am to the Government for the way in which this Bill has been drafted, and also for the way in which they have received the representations which have been made to them on behalf of King's College by the Vice-Chancellor of the University, Professor Randolph Quirk, by my noble and gallant friend and by myself, as chairman of the Council of King's.
The noble Lord, Lord Houghton, in an admirably witty and trenchant intervention referred with dark suspicion to "other purposes". One other purpose, as the noble Lord, Lord Skelmersdale, remarked, would be the occupation of part of Somerset House by a new creation. That creation would be as part of a reorganised, modernised and streamlined University of London—a new college embracing the existing King's College, Queen Elizabeth College and Chelsea College, constituting, in effect, something like a new university in the heart of London.
I know that there are difficulties. There are difficulties of accommodation—the noble Lord referred to them; the difficulty of finding suitable alternative accommodation for some, at least, of the present admirable occupants of the building. There, as always, are difficulties of finance. The noble Lord, Lord Houghton, also referred to difficulties of romance. I do not think that there would be difficulties of romance in this imaginative idea. After all, the main sponsor of King's College over 150 years ago was the Duke of Wellington. He fought a duel with the then Marquess of Winchilsea over King's. I think that his spirit would lie down very amicably in Somerset House with Oliver Cromwell, with Inigo Jones and with those other admirable civil servants—and I speak with respect of the Civil Service—to whom the noble Lord, Lord Houghton, referred in those remarks which I greatly enjoyed.
Therefore, I welcome very warmly the Bill. I welcome what the noble Lord, Lord Skelmersdale, has said. I believe that it opens another opportunity, apart from housing the Courtauld Institute which deserves to be housed in these particular Fine Rooms, and I would say that the new King's would cohabit very amicably, very productively, and very legitimately with the Courtauld, if that were to come about.
I know that there are difficulties. But I believe that those difficulties can be overcome with will, goodwill and imagination, and I hope that the discussions on which we are engaged—and I am very grateful that this possibility has been opened by the Department of the Environment—will lead to those difficulties being

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surmounted and, I believe, a unique opportunity being seized.
4.26 p.m.
Lord Skelmersdale: My Lords, I feel that I am about to make another mistake on which my noble friend, before he leaves the Chamber, is prepared to correct me. Is there not a quotation from the Old Testament which goes along the lines,
"I slew a lion and brought forth a mouse"?
I am beginning to feel that it is the other way round this afternoon.
This is a short Bill and many of the points which have been raised this afternoon are, with respect, mostly Committee points, but I must in all fairness answer one or two of them. The first thing I should like to do is to look at the Bill in front of us, because the noble Lord, Lord Houghton, for example, and, by implication, although she did not actually express it, the noble Baroness, Lady Birk, were worried about certain words. But it is a very simple Bill, it has only one clause and each subsection depends on each other subsection.
I think that the words which the noble Lord, Lord Houghton, should have had particularly in mind before he concocted the very interesting and amusing speech which we heard this afternoon, are in subsection (3). They are:
"the Secretary of State shall have regard to the architectural importance of the building".
So can your Lordships imagine any responsible adult, let alone any responsible adult who has risen to the dizzy heights of Secretary of State, allowing Messrs. Grabbit, Grabbit and Twitch in such surroundings? I am simply horrified that the noble Lord should have had such an idea.
The other thing which the Bill does not do is to refer to leases, and the whole tenor of the speech of the noble Baroness, Lady Birk, was about the proposed lease of the University of London and Courtauld Institute. But, at present, the lease would be for at least 50 years. The Fine Rooms would be rent free for 20 years and at a reduced rental thereafter. The university would pay a market rent for the remainder of the North Block and would be responsible for maintenance costs, except, as she said, that the department would bear any exceptional costs arising from the age of the building. But the cost of refurbishment of the North Block beyond the Fine Rooms, which, as I said, are in a reasonable state of repair, although not in a suitable state for hanging fine pictures and displaying busts or anything else that might be desirable, is to be borne by the university and, as I said in my opening speech, they are intending to raise this by public subscription.
I am unable to stand at this Dispatch Box, especially here in your Lordships' House, and commit the Government to vast sums of money, or indeed any sums of money, but I have no doubt that my noble friend Lord Gowrie, to whose attention I shall draw this debate, will be extremely interested and will do his best to see what he can do to help in the appeal. In this connection, it might be interesting if I were to tell the House that even before the appeal has opened I
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understand that there have been promises of £½million. I do not believe, therefore, that the picture is quite so black as the noble Baroness has painted it.
Baroness Birk: My Lords, when the noble Lord spoke about the lease he confirmed what I put forward that a lease of not less than 50 years is now being spoken of. But I was arguing that a 50-year lease was far too short to enable the Courtauld Institute to move in, try to obtain the money and have security of tenure. I should like to hear from the Minister whether a lease of 125 years, similar to that granted for the Hampton's site, will be discussed, because that is not in the Bill.
Lord Skelmersdale: No, my Lords, it is not in the Bill, for the simple reason that the word "lease" is not in the Bill in the context of what we are discussing. Not for the first time, the noble Baroness has pre-empted me. I was about to answer her question.
Baroness Birk: I apologise to the noble Lord.
Lord Skelmersdale: The lease is only at the heads of agreement stage. Discussions are still taking place. If the Courtauld Institute agree with the noble Baroness that 50 or 60 years is not long enough, I have no doubt that they will have the opportunity to press for 100 or 125 years, or whatever might seem to them to be appropriate.
My Lords, the other point to which I ought to draw attention was made by the noble Lord, Lord Houghton of Sowerby. The fact is that it was the university who came to the Government. The Government were not trying to sell like mad this building which the noble Lord, one infers from his speech, regards as a Whitehall white elephant, or something of that character. So again the picture is not quite so black as it has been painted. The basic purpose of the Bill is to give to the Secretary of State powers in line with those he already enjoys in respect of many other listed buildings on the Crown estate. He is not constrained in any way in any of those cases, so I shall have to read very carefully what the noble Lord said before I am prepared to agree that the Secretary of State should be constrained in this particular case. His powers over Government-owned buildings are wide, particularly so in respect of the office estate. My right honourable friend the Secretary of State recognises the particular importance of Somerset House. For this reason, the Bill contains qualifications, some of which I have mentioned, as to the powers he would have in respect of this building.
It will not be until the Committee stage that I discover whether your Lordships are satisfied, but I have no doubt that we shall then have a very interesting debate upon the subject. My right honourable friend would also like the public to have a greater opportunity to enjoy the architectural splendour of this work of the 18th century. I am not trying to sound like an estate agent again, but I really do believe that this is a most glorious building, very attractively sited at the back of the Aldwych. In the case of the Fine Rooms and the courtyard there would seem to be scope to widen the limited facilities which the public already enjoy.
This is a small but by no means unimportant Bill and it is a step along this particular route. I am

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extremely grateful to all noble Lords who have spoken with great knowledge and eloquence upon it and I am sure that eventually it will very happily reach the statute book.
On Question, Bill read a second time, and committed to a Committee of the Whole House.

The Shipping Industry: EEC Competition Policy
4.35 p.m.
Viscount Rochdale Viscount Rochdale rose to move, That this House takes note of the present situation of the shipping industry and of the Report of the European Communities Committee on EEC Competition Policy: Shipping (3rd Report, 1983–84, H.L. 23).
The noble Viscount said: My Lords, in moving that this House takes note of the present situation of the shipping industry and at the same time takes note of the report of your Lordships' Select Committee on competition policy as applied to shipping, I am underlining a problem with which the sub-committee who considered the draft regulation, of which I had the privilege to be chairman, were immediately confronted. The problem, we found, was that there were so many important matters involved which were quite external to the commission and yet had a considerable bearing on the draft regulation that we had to go much wider in our investigations than merely confining ourselves to the content of the draft regulation. That is why the Motion that I proposed to your Lordships is worded in the way that it is. I shall be referring to some of the external matters to which I referred as I go along.
The regulation seeks to apply the competition rules in Articles 85 and 86 of the Treaty of Rome to the liner shipping conferences in which the Community states may in one way or another be involved. I understand that this regulation had been under discussion for a number of years. The commission discussed the matter with Governments, shipowner organisations and shipper organisations.
Perhaps I should say something about the word "conferences". Conferences are undoubtedly cartels. The word "cartel" is one which I know suggests to many people lack of competition. It is therefore open to a degree of suspicion—in this case suspicion, perhaps, from shippers of goods who need the services of ship owners and suspicion from shipping lines, particularly those of the emergent third world who may want their new shipping lines to be able to become members of closed conferences but sometimes feel themselves barred from getting in. However, to label a conference as being a cartel which is a matter for suspicion is not at all a balanced point of view. It is by no means the whole story.
The idea behind conferences (which I suppose in the last century was a British idea) is to fulfil a definite and important practical function, particularly where a shipper is not in a position to charter a whole ship. A conference is there to help shippers to see that their goods are correctly and economically carried and to help ship-owners to provide the services that the shippers want. Conferences can provide regular services at stated times between stated ports at stated
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charges, with assured adequate shipping capacity and performance. To do that involves considerable capital investment. Unless that can be undertaken within the framework of a large organisation—in other words, a conference—and with some obligation on the part of the shippers of goods to use that conference (here I refer to the vexed question of loyalty agreements) it could be that essential investment might not be forthcoming. Therefore I hope your Lordships will agree that the idea of conferences is not, as is sometimes hinted, merely for the benefit of ship-owners.
The value of conferences is recognised by most countries of the free world, and in the interests of their own shippers and of their own trade most countries in the free world exempt conferences from their national monopoly legislation. The United Kingdom is no exception. But the notable exception is the United States of America, with its anti-trust legislation. There, conferences—and, in particular, closed conferences —and indeed shippers' councils' are illegal.
What is much worse, this situation can be the cause of severe embarrassment, if not bitterness, because in some cases American legislation is in effect exported to other countries who trade with America, such as the United Kingdom. This is obviously intolerable, and has in recent years resulted in protective legislation. Your Lordships may remember one such piece of legislation which went through this House in 1980, the Protection of Trading Interests Act.
That apart, there are some hundreds of conferences throughout the world, and it would be unrealistic to expect that there would never be an occasion for some criticism or complaint. Indeed, liner conferences have been a matter for argument over many decades, leading up to the United Nations code of conduct for liner conferences in 1974, the history of which, and the background to which, is discussed in some detail in paragraphs 14 and 15 of our report. The code was due to come into force six months after the minimum stated number of member countries representing a certain minimum tonnage had been adhered to. In effect, the code came into force last month, on 6th October.
Without going into details, which are set out in the report, I would say that the code recognises the value of conferences, but it also includes certain other provisions. In particular, it establishes the right of countries at either end of a conference route to claim up to 40 per cent. of their own traffic coming in and out of their own ports. This latter provision is not in accord with Article 85 of the Treaty of Rome, and therefore creates a problem. However, when the code was passed by the United Nations—by UNCTAD—most Community members adhered to it, but not at first the United Kingdom or Denmark, because adhering to the code placed member states at odds with the Treaty of Rome. However, to rectify that situation, an earlier regulation was passed in 1979 qualifying the code for Community members only. That regulation is generally known as, and is referred to in the report and described as, "the Brussels Package".
Today, all members of the Community have accepted the code. The question that occurred to us

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was: why should the regulation be introduced just now? The ostensible reason we were given was that, as the present draft regulation was under the Treaty of Rome, the commission had an obligation to introduce some such regulation in order to comply with the Treaty of Rome. In fact, there had to be competition rules for all forms of production and movement of goods. For most business, and, indeed, for inland transport, that had already been carried out; but not in the case of shipping, which was still outstanding. The commission also seemed to doubt whether liner conferences operated against sufficient competition to keep them honest. Therefore they felt that they must get on with a regulation for dealing with liner conferences. So the question of the timing of this regulation was an important one to us.
It seemed difficult to us on the sub-committee to understand why, having waited for so many years, it was necessary to bring in the regulation just at this moment when the United Nations code, with its quite uncertain effects and repercussions around the world, is getting under way. Was it fortuitous, as we were urged to believe, or was it not? It is this question—why now?—that really conditions our main conclusions and recommendations, to which I shall return in a moment.
Naturally, we also addressed ourselves to whether there was really any lack of competition for liner conferences. From all the evidence received, the committee had no difficulty in coming to the conclusion that lack of competition was not by any means proven. Generally, however, whatever may sometimes have been the case in the past, and whether or not at times there may have been cases where the dominant position of ship-owners created an unfairness in relation to shippers, we came to the conclusion that today competition was considerable and generally on the increase. I shall quote from one piece of evidence we received. It is written evidence from a body which calls itself CENSA, which is the Council of European and Japanese Ship-owners' Associations. On this very point the council, in its evidence, stated that,
"competition against liner conferences has never in their history been so fierce".
It is true that since the report went to press, I have been informed of a few cases of agreements which have been arrived at between certain liner conferences and specific outsiders, establishing what they term "tolerated outsiders". Without going into the details of that, all I can say is that I realise that to the small extent that agreements exist, they could in some ways reduce free competition, but only on a few particular routes.
The reasons for this increased competition are discussed again in considerable detail in our report. They may be economic (in which I include currency rates); they may be commercial; they may be social; they may be political; or they may be technological. But I want to mention just one item, which has greatly strengthened the degree of competition for conferences. It is the disturbing growth of Soviet shipping, which today numerically, though not in tonnage, comprises the world's largest merchant shipping fleet.
Some of your Lordships may have seen a publication published this summer entitled, The Challenge of Soviet Shipping. That publication contains 12 articles by an international team of experts. It is published jointly, in this country by Aims of Industry and in the United States by the National Statutory Information Centre, in New York. There is a copy in the Library, and I would commend it to those of your Lordships who are interested in the impact of Soviet shipping on world shipping and on the shipping of the free world.
In the report itself there are a number of matters referred to which I shall not dwell on in my speech this afternoon because I want to deal primarily with our main recommendation. The points I have in mind are very important ones. They are such things as shipper-shipowner relationships—very important indeed—loyalty agreements as between shippers and conferences—quite a contentious matter—shipowners'response to shipper applications when they apply to be relieved—no doubt for good reason—from their loyalty agreements; disparity in rates charged. These are all important matters. I am not going to refer to them in detail this afternoon. They are in the report, and in fact at the end of the report in paragraphs 79 to 93 we have suggested a number of detailed amendments that refer to these points as well as to others.
What I want to move on to is our major recommendation to which I referred a moment ago; I will now talk about that. It deals with the question of the timing of the draft regulation. In order to do that, I must ask your Lordships to take account of the present difficult situation in the shipping world. Shipping, I think we can say fairly the world over, is in a state of flux and depression. New technology, changing trade patterns, world recession, unilateral national legislation, cargo and market reservation, new entrants, whether from the third world, Soviet Russia or anywhere else, land bridges, pipelines, aircraft and the high cost of fuel, are all making their contribution to the difficult situation of British shipping today. Britain is as vulnerable and as affected as any other country, and in some respects—with its historical pre-eminence in the shipping world and its high involvement in the cross trades—more so than most.
Some of your Lordships may have come across the July-August edition of the journal of the Chartered Institute of Transport. If you have, you will have seen on the outside cover a lovely coloured glossy picture. What you would have seen would have been what I am sure we all thought it looked like, a cage in which you might expect a wild animal to be put in at the zoo; but looking further behind the bars of the cage there is a beautiful model of a British cargo ship, and the caption underneath is "Endangered species". I do not want to overstate my case, but I think that that picture and the article related to it tells the story very cogently.
There are figures to illustrate this in our report. I will quote two or three, because I think that they are important. In 1973, admittedly a time which followed a time of considerable shipping building, the British merchant fleet consisted of 1,686 ships of somewhere near 44½ million deadweight tonnes. In 1982 that figure had dropped 868 ships of about 24½ million deadweight tonnes. The latest figure that I have, for July of this year, is that it has dropped still more to 794

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ships of 23 million deadweight tonnes. In other words, between 1973 and now our British merchant fleet has more than halved. One other figure: much of our tonnage is laid up and not in service; 17 per cent. of the British tonnage is laid up today, and that is higher than the world average, which is only 13 per cent. So that the British fleet needs very careful looking at.
I need not emphasise to your Lordships how important a really substantial and competitive British merchant fleet is to this country. It is an essential part of our commercial and industrial structure, our overseas trade structure, serving both shippers and ship-owners, who have to provide the facilities for shippers. It is important also as a substantial earner in its own right of overseas currency, and valuable as a potentially important customer of our shipbuilding industry, and, as we all saw so clearly last year, it was a vital partner with the Royal Navy in the Falklands crisis. And that is to say nothing of the employment the shipping industry can give to our seafarers, with all their maritime traditions, their skill and their dedication.
The draft regulation which we were called on to consider is directed to liner conferences, and that includes both ferries, we think, but not the bulk trades. It would lay down certain competition regulations and controls which, set against what today is the quite uncertain effect of the United Nations code, could result not in helping matters but in a very serious further brake on the much needed recovery of our shipping fleet. I very much hope my noble friend Lord Lucas, when he comes to reply, will have something to say on this general situation, which, to my mind, is of the greatest importance.
So far as the regulation is concerned, the committee took the view that, until the full worldwide effect of the United Nations code became clearer—different people have different views on its effect but obviously those views must be subjective at this stage—nothing should be done which might perhaps have the effect of restricting the most efficient operation and redevelopment of the merchant fleet and in particular of the liner conferences in which the British merchant fleet plays such an important part. This is most important to shippers, and, although in my life I have been connected in one way and another with shipping, my interests have been primarily in manufacturing industry and therefore primarily associated with shippers. Dare I say that, unless the situation can be improved, one can perhaps hardly blame shippers when sometimes they have to look elsewhere for carriers?
One is being critical of the regulation, and I understand that in Brussels, in the Community, some serious doubts exist and that it is currently a matter for further thought. Our main recommendation, therefore, was that the draft regulation should be deferred. Your Lordships will, however, have seen that our report goes further. It proposes that an interim regulation with a minimum life of five years should be enacted until the need for a substantive regulation is clearly estabished. I realise that this latter part of our recommendation is open to argument. It may be that some argument against it may even be suggested this afternoon. But the sub-committee felt that in all the circumstances the proper course was to bring to an end
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the present state of legal uncertainty and provide a firm base from which the provisions of the code could be monitored, and monitored in considerable detail.
It does not, of course, necessarily follow that the administrative and procedural provisions of an interim regulation would be the same as those in the present one, which are included in Articles 9 to 28 of the present draft. The most important point which we saw was, first, that the present regulation should be deferred and, secondly, that the operation of the code should be carefully monitored. There is precedent in Brussels for monitoring.
We also thought it important to fill another gap and to include in this provisional regulation the bulk trades, which are excluded from the draft we were considering. But those should be included with unconditional exemption—that is, following Section 3 of Article85, where under some circumstances certain activities can be made inapplicable. We wanted a very clear definition of what is meant by "bulk".
Coming to the end of what I have to say, I want to make three points which are to my mind very important. The first deals with the question of jurisdiction. Article 8 of the draft regulation clearly recognises that the regulation might conflict with the regulations of other countries. The article therefore makes provision for this by providing for discussions between different countries as a means of resolving difficulties. One can hardly fault the idea, but if one bases one's opinion on the experience of such discussions, say, with the United States of America over the past 20 years, there is no encouragement to success in that direction. However, I understand that discussions are currently proceeding between the United States of America and CSG—the Consultative Shipping Group on shipping matters and I should be the last to say anything that might prejudge or prejudice the successful outcome of those discussions. All I know is that the discussions are continuing and I hope they may lead to something.
My second point refers to the trade unions in the shipping world. They made the point in their evidence that a regulation devoted to competition would be incomplete if it omitted an area where competition is singularly unfair; namely, the great variation worldwide in the wage levels of seamen, of manning scales and other related social matters. To that, I add substandard ships. This is a very difficult area. It is not included in the draft regulation. It is one of great importance, as we tried to explain in our report, but it seemed to us to be outside our remit, so we did not feel that we could pursue it in detail. However, I want to make the point very strongly that here is something that should be realised and looked into by the Commission, although I understand that it would involve another Brussels Directorate than DG4, which deals with competition. I was very glad to note a recent Motion for a resolution in the European Parliament along those very lines. I hope that will bear fruit.
As my third and final point, I emphasise that, for reasons that I hope have become apparent, we could not confine our inquiries within the United Kingdom. We received written evidence from the European Shippers' Councils and oral and written evidence from CAACE, a body which represents the ship-owners' associations in the Community. However, as the

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implications of the regulation went further still, we had to go outside the Community and we also consulted a body to which I think I have already referred, CENSA, which covers the ship-owners' associations of the whole of Western Europe and Japan.
That leads me to my conclusion. I wish to thank all who were involved in the inquiry: my colleagues on the sub-committee, our specialist advisers, our clerk and all those organisations, trade unions and individuals, including officials of the shipping policy division of the Department of Trade and Industry—now, I understand, the Department of Transport, to which my noble friend belongs—all of whom went to such enormous trouble to provide the evidence we needed. It is all in the report to be read. Generally, the effort, the interest shown and all the evidence were most impressive. This indicates the importance placed on the whole subject and the anxiety shown by so many people, both at home and abroad, to contribute to what I hope will be a useful report.
In closing, let me illustrate that with one telling example of the interest and co-operation. A moment ago I referred to CENSA. When we took oral evidence from its representatives, we had with us, apart from the British delegate, a delegate from Hamburg, West Germany, and a delegate from Paris, France. A delegate from Milan was, unfortunately, partially through ill-health and partially through a strike of air traffic controllers, unable to be with us. We also had a delegate from Norway, a Mr. Werring, who is a very eminent shipowner. It so happened that Mr. Werring was on holiday in Miami, a long way away. Yet he felt that the importance of coming to this country to give evidence to your Lordships' Committee was so great that he took the trouble to travel all the way from Miami to do so and went back afterwards. I think that speaks for itself. I beg to move.
Moved, That this House takes note of the present situation of the shipping industry and of the report of the European Communities Committee on EEC Competition Policy: Shipping (3rd Report, 1983–84, H.L. 23).—[Viscount Rochdale.]
5.9 p.m.
Lord Underhill: My Lords, it is a pleasure and a privilege to follow the noble Viscount, Lord Rochdale. Any noble Lord who did not already know of the noble Viscount's great interest in shipping would have appreciated it from the speech we have just heard. It is what one would expect, bearing in mind that he was chairman of the committee of inquiry into the shipping industry in 1970, the report of which bears his name. I also rise with some trepidation because I was not a member of the sub-committee which presented this report and there are a number of other noble Lords to speak who have associations with the shipping industry. I congratulate the noble Viscount on his excellent summary of the whole report and his views on the future of the shipping industry, and on this report itself. I found it, as he said, a useful report, a fascinating report, although not one that I recommend to re-read, as I did, for bedtime reading.
We must not overlook the fact that the 1982 Merchant Shipping Act, the Third Reading of which was supported from these Benches, implements the
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United Nations Liner Code as adapted by the Brussels package, to which the noble Viscount has referred. The draft regulations confirm that Brussels package and, as the noble Viscount has pointed out, would exempt liner conferences and limited agreements from the bar of restrictive practices under Articles 85 and 86 of the Community treaty. It also includes a number of conditions which, as has been pointed out, could conflict with the United Nations code.
May I just comment, in passing, that it is interesting to note how very easily the Commission can set on one side articles of its Treaty when it considers it is necessary to do so, and that is what it has done in the case of the Brussels package.
Various sections of the report and the evidence presented to the committee deal with this question of restrictive practices; but it has to be kept in mind that liner conferences have operated for some hundred years, and if not actually restrictive practices, surely they do take the form of cartel. The loyalty agreements are also surely a form of discrimination in trade. I am not attacking liner conferences; I am not attacking the loyalty agreements; but I must stress that surely these are examples of managed trade which are not just left to the market to sort out.
The report sets out various developments in shipping practices and operations and it mentions some: it mentions the container revolution, newcomers in the form of outsiders coming in, development of consortia and also development of new national shipping lines. Paragraph 44 of the report observes that all these changes work towards the erosion of conference power. That is important in the light of the main recommendations of the committee.
For these reasons, and also the points made under international repercussions in paragraphs 71–78 of the report, the conclusion of the committee not to support the draft regulation would seem to be the right course. As argued in paragraph 95, just to maintain the status quo could present problems, and the noble Viscount intimated that there could be possible legal repercussions if the status quo situation was adopted.
The second course of action suggested by the committee, the adoption of a provisional regulation to last for a minimum period—the committee suggest five years—which would provide exemption for liner conferences, loyalty and other agreements between shipping lines and shippers, would enable the position to be reviewed during the interim in the light of all the many changes in shipping that may take place, to which I have referred and to which the noble Viscount also referred in his speech.
The paragraphs under the state of British shipping refer to the startling decline in the size of the British fleet over the last decade during which there has been a substantial increase in the world shipping fleet. I was very pleased that the noble Viscount gave actual details and figures (which saves me repeating them) to show how alarming is this decline. This serious situation was also referred to in the report by the evidence from the Department of Trade, the General Council of British Shipping, the British shippers councils and also the two main seafaring unions. They all emphasise this alarming decline in the British shipping industry.

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The Motion before us does not deal with just taking note of this report. As the noble Viscount has said, it also takes note of the present situation in the shipping industry, and as supplements to all the evidence in this report—if one needed any supplements—I found it useful to refer to two other publications: one is British Shipping Heading for the Rocks, which was produced by the National Union of Seamen in December last year, and the other is the British Shipping Review 1982, published by the General Council of British Shipping only as recently as September this year; and I shall refer in my subsequent comments to some points made in those documents. The two documents reflect different approaches and solutions but both would seem to be directed to the same end: to retain Britain's share of the world shipping; to maintain shipping receipts; to assist in the balance of payments; to assist Britain's export trade, and to look to the interests of seafarers. Note that the last point is included.
The report, in paragraph 37, refers to the fall in competitiveness, particularly in cruising and dry bulk fleet, where the report says:
"Competitors, notably ships manned by Far Eastern crews, have lower manning costs than United Kingdom operators".
This point was taken up, I noted, by the National Union of Seamen, who claim that ship-owners have looked to cut costs by lower wage agreements, reduced manning and more inflexibility, and some have transferred ships to flags of convenience. Similar points were made in evidence given by the Merchant Officers' Association. The General Council of British Shipping countered that the use of flagging out as a term of abuse conceals the fact that a shipping company, to stay in business—and I am quoting from the general council's view—
"must be free to put its ships under the flag most likely to serve the success of the enterprise and an owner must decide whether to own ships under his country's flag or under another country's flag or by charter".
If we were left with that statement, that, I would suggest to your Lordships, is very alarming. The General Council of British Shipping has urged that the Government should interest a company in having a ship placed under a British flag by providing a favourable fiscal régime and should give positive political support against the activities of foreign Governments.
There is, I think noble Lords will agree, increasing concern about the growing penetration of the British fleet by foreign owners, and I understand that the Department of Trade itself estimated that at the end of 1980 some 40 per cent. of the United Kingdom registered fleet was controlled by foreign interests. That statement was clearly made in one of the documents to which I have referred. The National Union of Seamen argue that changes in the British shipping industry in terms of size, structure and control mean the industry is facing a precarious future. They urge simple protectionist and, I would say, interventionist measures, as an interim step to a longer-term policy of preservation and development of our shipping industry.
The General Council of British Shipping observe in their document—and I hope the Minister may have something to say about this,
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"that the Government is totally opposed to any form of direct assistance to the industry, even the limited fiscal incentives which the General Council has advocated. There is to be no subsidy, no control, no protectionism. The industry will have to stand on its own two feet and prosper or decline as a result of its own efforts".
I have taken that quotation from the General Council of British Shipping's own document; not a socialist periodical.
Is not the National Union of Seamen correct in arguing that worldwide shipping does not operate in a free market? In fact, it is doubtful whether it has ever operated in a free market. I am almost tempted to refer to the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Boyd-Carpenter, yesterday, but I will not.
Price fixing is well established either through liner conferences or multinational company manipulation. Virtually every fleet receives some form of subsidy and many countries follow various forms of protectionism such as reserving coastal trade to the vessels of the nation's own fleet and the reservation of Government generated cargo to national flag vessels. Britain has avoided these two measures, but our main competitors and European partners do not. The United States, Japan, Greece, France, West Germany and Italy, for instance, follow those two practices.
The United Kindom has continued to honour trading principles laid down in GATT, but, again, our competitors have begun to conclude bilateral agreements that take the form of trading discrimination. The Merchant Navy and Airline Officers' Association states that United Kingdom workers in the industry are concerned about the way in which competition in shipping is distorted by other member states of the Community through failing to accept international conventions, operating under non-Community flags, employing non-Community seafarers at cut rates and receiving either direct or indirect financial assistance from their Governments. Every one of those measures would appear to be not in conformity with the aims and aspirations of the Community treaties.
The Select Committee has made clear that it saw no reason why regulations should not include social factors such as wages, general conditions and manning. I am pleased that the noble Viscount stressed this point in his introductory speech. Why is it not possible, when the United Kingdom is considering a regulation dealing with a particular industry, for social factors to be included in that regulation, whatever the industry, shipping or any other? When the question of conditions not being observed by all nations is so important, this would appear to be a particularly important factor in any regulation dealing with the shipping industry.
Words and aspirations about leaving freedom in shipping are not enough when our competitors and our Community partners do not follow that course. It seems that we are in a situation where there is general recognition that the shipping trade must be regulated and not left to the market. If measures of temporary protection or, if I may so express it, intervention or even management—management may be the better word—are not to be followed, I must ask what positive action is to be taken internationally before British shipping suffers further decline.

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This decline has taken place at a time when there has been no holding back due to restrictive practices. According to general philosophy, there have been no restrictions. There is one encouraging feature. The unions hold the view that British shipping has always been able to compete in technical efficiency, scale economies and general high standards. They have emphasised that these factors must not be allowed to slip back. The General Council of British Shipping has offered the two largest unions the opportunity to work out jointly broad lines of support that the industry should seek from the Government. That is encouraging. I hope that this course will be followed by the General Council and the unions concerned. If the conclusion of the Select Committee is adopted and there is an interim regulation instead of the draft regulation proposed, that will give a breathing space to look at all the issues involved.
I conclude by expressing my impression that this extremely useful report is not about a free market. It is really about planning and managing the shipping trade. That was also evident from the speech of the noble Viscount.
5.24 p.m.
Lord Greenhill of Harrow: My Lords, it was a great privilege to sit on the committee under the chairmanship of the noble Viscount, Lord Rochdale. His long and authoritative connection with the shipping industry, far from breeding prejudice, enabled us to reach conclusions of a very fair-minded kind, conclusions with which I fully agree and which I believe are generally accepted. I shall speak very briefly and confine myself to two points prompted by the report; first, the role of the Commission in this matter, and, secondly, the chilling paragraphs 34 to 38 headed, "State of British Shipping".
First, the role of the Commission. The Commission has a very difficult role to play in the affairs of the Community. It would be remarkable if it could from time to time escape justifiable criticism from one quarter or another. It has the duty to try and ensure that the Treaty of Rome is implemented. It has the legal duty to do this. It is a duty that it must, and does, take very seriously indeed. But, at the same time, it would be best if it exercised its zeal selectively. The treaty was drawn up in certain political and economic circumstances, and the treaty naturally reflects these circumstances.
The circumstances are now vastly different, and it seems to me that members of the Commission are sometimes a little insensitive to the changes that have taken place and plough on in a bureaucratic way doing things that they could, with advantage, leave alone at least for the time being. Competition in shipping is just such a case. The proposed regulation which the report examines could very well have been conveniently left on one side with a saving of a certain amount of trouble. The priority target in the Community transport world is surely European air fares where there is an obvious distortion of competition to the great and continued detriment of the consumer.
There is no such urgency in the matter of shipping competition, and the advent at long last of the United
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Nations code, however unsatisfactory it may be to developed countries, was another decisive fact, the consequences of which require monitoring over a reasonable span of time before appropriate EEC regulations are introduced. This is what the report recommended. We need the help of the Commission in the reform of the operations of the Community. All that I ask it to do is to deal with first things first.
The second point that I wish to make is entirely different and more important. It is the state of British shipping. Nobody could listen to the witnesses without being conscious of the appalling decline of our merchant marine. The reasons are plain enough. Some are beyond control. Others cry out for remedy. The decline of the merchant marine must also mean the decline of those activities which are dependent upon it and in which this country has traditionally played a major role. The names of certain noble Lords participating in this debate have been household words in the shipping industry for more than one generation. But, unlike some of our traditional industries, even its strongest critics could not reasonably claim that it has not moved with the times. It has a very enterprising and innovating record since the war. I have never had any commercial connection with it. However, during the last war I had a great deal of experience with the movement of men and material by sea in support of our forces. At that period the merchant marine served the war effort magnificently, as I saw at first hand in all the main theatres of the war. It may be for those reasons that the value of a powerful merchant marine for the purposes of defence of this country bulks unduly large in my mind.
Of course, it is hard to envisage another war which would impose a comparable burden on our shipping, and the capability of movement by air is a new and vital mitigating factor. But I think it would be beyond dispute that this country needs a strategic reserve of shipping for defence purposes. The extent of this reserve must be a matter of professional judgment but it must contain vessels of all kinds and, in particular, short sea and coastal shipping. The creation of this reserve needs the co-operation of both the private sector and the Government. For example, sales abroad of certain types of ships should be closely controlled. It may be that this matter is already in hand following the lessons of recent history. I hope that the Minister can assure us that this is so.
Leaving aside defence requirements, let me now turn to the normal role of the merchant fleet, which has to meet our commercial needs and which has always been a substantial earner of foreign exchange. Paragraph 38 reports the General Council of British Shipping's estimate that the fleet will be down to 600 ships of 16 million tonnes deadweight by 1985, that it will stabilise there and will be well placed to profit by the upsurge in demand following the world recession. The brunt of the reduction will be borne by tankers and bulk carriers. This optimistic picture is contradicted in part by the evidence of the seafaring unions. I am glad that both the previous speakers referred sympathetically to this union evidence which I commend to Members of the House.
Whether 600 ships of a rather specialised kind, including a greatly reduced tanker fleet, are sufficient

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to protect our commercial, let alone our defence, interests is a question that I cannot answer. I doubt it, and I have an uneasy feeling that the future will demand far greater Government participation in the protection of our merchant marine and a much higher priority for the shipping industry in the Government's consideration. But suppose the optimism of the general council about the future proves to be misplaced. I do not see how far greater Government intervention in the industry can be avoided unless we are to see a further weakening. The document that the Maritime League have circulated to many of your Lordships proposes much increased Government activity in international bodies to protect our interests. Certainly the full negotiating strength of the EEC must be mobilised and greater European co-operation is certainly a part of the answer—so are joint ventures with developing countries. But all this takes time. For example, the United Nations code took 12 years. While we are consulting, discussing and arguing we must take care that our British industry does not sink beyond the reach of rescue.
The Maritime League talk about a Minister of Shipping or at least a Cabinet committee—preferring the latter. Neither would be of value, in my opinion, unless the Government have the will to put things right by according the industry its rightful place in national priorities and coming to its aid at the proper time. We may be able to afford to allow the foreign competition to wipe out our motor-cycle industry, but the fate of our merchant marine cannot be left to market forces or to the mercy of subsidised competitors.
A strong merchant marine together with a modernised shipbuilding industry and efficient ports are not optional for this country: they are indispensable. We must surely will the means to create and maintain them. I cannot visualise it being done without additional Governmental intervention which is, of course, entirely contrary to the present Government's policy. I hope this policy can be reconsidered with a view to selective modification.
5.35 p.m.
Viscount Runciman of Doxford: My Lords, I apologise to your Lordships for intervening at this stage. I should explain that my reason for doing so is that my noble friend Lord Inchcape had intended to make certain points which represent to some extent the feelings of the General Council of British Shipping, but he has found himself unable to address your Lordships this afternoon and has asked me to do my best to make his points for him. Therefore, I can only try.
I suppose that I ought to declare an interest, as no doubt my noble friend would have done. For some 60 years, with the exception of seven or eight years in the middle of that period, I have been more or less directly concerned with the ownership and management of British shipping. Indeed, I remain a director of a company which still, I am happy to say, owns a few British ships manned by British seafarers. In the course of that time there have been a good many ups and downs. However, I should like to emphasise one of the many matters which my noble friend Lord Rochdale raised this afternoon in his masterly and masterful exposition, which really covered the ground so
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admirably that it is almost indecent to rise following him.
The depression which we are now experiencing is very much the worst that has occurred, certainly in my lifetime. It is different not only in extent, but also in kind, from those that went before. During the 1930 depression I had the task of trying to shepherd through a fleet of about 18 tramp ships without complete annihilation, and I am thankful to say that we succeeded. We had the advantage of capital commitments being spread over a larger number of units. So if we could not make a job with one ship, we stood a fair chance of making it with another. I suppose that today that fleet would have been covered, in tonnage terms, by about six bulk carriers—if indeed it took as many as that—all at very much higher capital cost.
You cannot effectively split a large ship into two when you do not have enough cargo for one big ship. That is one of the reasons why I say that this depression is entirely different in kind from those that went before. The other reason is the immense growth in the number ships, most of which are well built and competently manned by people from places such as Hong Kong, or even Korea. Their conditions of employment are such that they can run them a great deal more cheaply than we can in this country, in particular in the bulk trades.
The liner trades have also suffered. As my noble friend Lord Inchcape was going to say, the situation has been just the same for them—too many ships chasing too few cargoes. Those who invested prudently, as well as those who speculated rashly, have suffered a drastic decline in income.
Shippers may gain—and I think to some extent probably have gained—by the fact that under these conditions freights have been very much lower than they would have been had there been a smaller over-supply of tonnage, or even no over-supply. Liner rates have gone down, too. But, as has already been said, tankers and bulk carriers have carried the real knock. When one considers a state of affairs where a half million tonne tanker, costing 100 million dollars seven years ago, has been scrapped for 7 to 8 million dollars, one gets some measure of the catastrophic decline which has taken place.
It has already been said—and I can only emphasise it—that competition has never been stronger than it is today, and that there is competion just as much in the liner trades as there is elsewhere. The developing countries, in particular in the liner trades, have wished to assert their right to carry a large part of the trade, and it was that assertion by them which started in about 1974 and finished in the code to which reference has been made this afternoon.
British ship-owners did not like the code—I am not sure that even now we like it very much—but over the years they began to think that an international code of reasonable and reasonably limited effect was better, or at least less bad, than individual Governments adopting their own measures independently and probably competing to see which could do best for themselves and worse for their competitors. That really explains the origin of the code.
I should like to say very forcefully indeed—as, I know, my noble friend should have wished to

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do—how strongly we agree with the conclusion of the committee that the regulations should not be proceeded with until the code has had a fair run and has been fairly monitored.
I do not think that I can usefully say any more than that. Of course, there are many aspects which were touched on by the noble Lord, Lord Greenhill of Harrow, but I am a surrogate(or whatever the right word is), and I should not wish to detain your Lordships longer than to say what my noble friend Lord Inchcape would himself have said; namely, how very strongly he from within, and I from without, the committee support its findings and hope that they will meet with the approval which they deserve.
5.44 p.m.
Lord Hill-Norton: My Lords, I intend to devote most of my time this afternoon—and a short time it will be—to the first part of the noble Viscount's Motion: namely, the present state of the shipping industry; because it is in a parlous state which requires urgent and decisive action by the Government if it is not to become irreversibly worse, even terminal. I should like to make one or two brief observations on the report of which your Lordships are asked to take note.
First, may I refer to the economic climate in which the shipping industry has to operate, and against which the EEC Commission's proposals should be considered. As other noble Lords have said, the effects of the world trade depression and recession have been compounded by the pursuit of protectionist policies in a significant and growing number of trades. Shipping companies are also subject to severe competition from both commercial and non-commercial competitors.
Of course, competition is an everyday fact of business life and no one would deny the benefits that it brings. But there are disturbing signs that genuine competition is being increasingly precluded by protective legislation in developing countries—the non-commercial or dumping services operated by the Soviets in particular—whether it be in normal trading or in the cruise ship market, and by other threats to the free-trading system.
Sadly, even among some of our oldest and closest neighbours within the European Community and in the North Sea, our short-sea and offshore shipping companies are faced with restrictive governmental practices, discriminatory fiscal treatment, and unnatural competition from heavily subsidised operations, to which the noble Lord, Lord Underhill, referred.
Against that background, I believe that the noble Viscount's committee is to be warmly commended on an admirably commonsense approach to the Commission's proposal to apply the EEC competition rules to shipping. Because there is a certain, though obviously not total, similarity of purpose between this proposal and the UN Liner Code Convention, to which other noble Lords have referred, and because that convention came into force last month and will shortly be ratified by Her Majesty's Government and other EEC states, it seems entirely logical that Community member states should live for a while with the realities
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and workings of the code before a decision is taken on this new proposal. The shipping industry has welcomed the committee's recommendation that further consideration of the proposal should be postponed for five years, and I share the view of the noble Viscount, Lord Runciman, that this must be right in the circumstances.
However, I am less happy with the further recommendation by the committee—this was also recommended in the speech of the noble Viscount, Lord Rochdale—that an interim regulation should be adopted in the meantime which would provide conferences with a widely-defined exemption from the Community's restrictions on monopolies. I see dangers here which require very careful weighing up, for the adoption of an interim regulation of the type proposed could produce even greater uncertainty than at present exists. I am aware that the GCBS is on record as firmly opposing this part of the report, and there are already other systems of monitoring, notably the mechanism which exists for monitoring non-commercial, and particularly Soviet, competition in certain trades. There would, therefore, seem to be no pressing need to cobble together some temporary Community regulation for monitoring the code.
There is only one other point in the noble Viscount's report which I should like to mention. I should like to add my voice to those of other noble Lords who have welcomed the recommendation of the noble Viscount's committee, that no artificial restriction —such as a limitation to 70 per cent.—should be placed on the traditional right of ship-owners and shippers to negotiate freely whatever loyalty agreements may seem to them desirable.
May I turn now to the present state of the shipping industry, which I have described as "parlous"—and all noble Lords who have spoken today have reinforced my point. On the harsh facts there can be no doubt that the word is both justified and appropriate. There can equally be no doubt on the same facts that the remedial action so desperately required can only be taken by the Government, and the noble Lord, Lord Greenhill, referred to this. It gives me no pleasure to remind your Lordships that Ministers collectively have so far shown little public sign of being aware of the dangers staring us in the face, much less of any inclination to take action to avert them.
What are these harsh facts? It is necessary for me to be very brief on this occasion, so much must be left unsaid. At the very least, it must surely be common ground that a thriving maritime economy is in the interests of everyone in Britain, from the housewife to the chiefs of staff. Without it, our trade and security, our commerce and industry, and perhaps our very futures, are directly threatened, even in peace-time. As the noble Viscount, Lord Rochdale, has said today, during the last seven years alone our ocean fleet has halved from over 1,600 ships to under 900. It is neither subsidised nor protected. But world shipping has increased in the same period from 440 million tonnes to 680 million tonnes today, and this is because subsidised shipyards the world over are pumping out new tonnage, and there are always speculative, subsidised or protected owners willing to buy at these knockdown prices.

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In the same way, in the last three years our fishing fleet has declined from 45 distant water vessels until today we have less than a dozen. It is not too fanciful to say that the Red Ensign is today flying at half mast. The same story is true of shipbuilding. We taught the world how to build ships. Less than 30 years ago we built more ships than any other country in the world, but today we are sixth in the shipbuilding league, and going down. I need not, I think, continue this dismal catalogue, but it must be said that years of indifference, neglect, wishful thinking, and taking it all for granted, are largely responsible.
What do those alarming figures that I and other noble Lords have given today mean? Given that British merchant shipping has proved in the past to be a major source of national revenue, its present reduced state, resulting in a reduced contribution, coupled with its continuing steep decline, and the defence considerations mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Greenhill, which I shall leave alone today, must give cause for major national concern.
The causes are largely outside the control of British ship-owners. They include the worldwide recession, already discussed, coupled with excessive and mainly political ambitions on the part of the developing world and COMECON. The international shipping market has become chaotic and not subject to normal commercial activity. In addition to a serious loss of revenue, our home trade is falling increasingly into foreign hands, and our cross-trading is threatened. The reduced size of our merchant fleet has important strategic implications too, not only for the supply and security of the United Kingdom base but in distant operations as well.
In line with the merchant fleet, the number of qualified seafarers has sharply declined, and the training base which provides them has been run down. This latter point could not only well be the governing factor in the fleet's recovery, but it also sharply affects the number of trained men available for the Royal Navy in emergencies. Once lost, few, if any, of these maritime enterprises and their supporting industries, their shore facilities, educational and training establishments, may, I emphasise, ever reappear.
As a densely-populated island nation whose prosperity depends so critically on its industry, the United Kingdom more than any other country, except perhaps Japan, needs a substantial and continuous flow of imports and exports. The volume was 157 million tonnes and 108 million tonnes respectively last year, and 99 per cent. of those cargoes must come and go by sea, and must always come and go by sea. You would agree, my Lords, I am sure, that we cannot sensibly allow any part of that trade to be dominated either by an economic competitor or by a potential enemy. Yet, unless the various declines in our merchant fleet are soon arrested and reversed, this is precisely what is inevitably going to happen.
There is, quite plainly, no sudden cure; nor is there a single cure for these quite separate, though related, ills. There is one underlying factor, however, and a common factor which could be dealt with at once, and with dramatic advantage. It is clear that there is today no co-ordinated national maritime policy. It is my view, my Lords, that, to find out why this is so, we must look very hard at the actual management by the
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Government of the whole "sea affair", as Churchill called it.
Shipping is currently the responsibility of the Secretary of State for Transport. It is also of concern—in some instances to a major degree—to no less than 13 other departments of state: Defence; Foreign and Commonwealth; Exchequer; Agriculture, Fisheries and Food; Trade and Industry; Education and Science; Employment, and I could go on. But there is no single effective national body with the information and authority needed to reconcile the conflicting interests of all those diverse Government departments and to formulate a national policy which would stimulate the growth and prosperity of shipping and the related British maritime interests.
Other countries have tried to solve this problem through the appointment of a single commission. They have failed because such a body lacks the necessary clout to deal with the more powerful and older-established departments. From my many years in Whitehall, I have no doubt that nothing short of a Maritime Policy Committee of the Cabinet, as powerful as the Defence and Overseas Policy Committee, would have the necessary authority to draw all these threads together and then make, and drive through, a coherent national maritime policy to avert the dangers—indeed, perhaps even the disaster—that have described.
5.57 p.m.
Lord Mottistone: My Lords, it is always a pleasure to follow the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Hill-Norton, in his trenchant remarks, with which one so often has deep sympathy. I should first like to thank my noble friend Lord Rochdale and his subcommittee for their most useful report, and indeed for the helpful introduction that my noble friend gave to us. It was also a pleasure to find unexpectedly my noble friend Lord Runciman addressing us with his great experience of shipping, about which we all know.
As are many other noble Lords, I, too, am profoundly disturbed at the state of the shipping industry, whose decline over the past 20 years has been so dramatic. An endangered species, my noble friend Lord Rochdale called it, and that is very true. Of course, as a sailor my heart is with the Merchant Navy. I spent most of the last war escorting convoys, and therefore am particularly concerned for their future. I admired greatly the efforts that they then put in. However, for this debate I have to declare an interest being in the employ of two food-processing trade associations, and being responsible for exports on their behalf. I shall thus put a rather different view from other noble Lords, which I hope will add to the debate; the view of exporting manufacturers. I have been advised in particular by the British Shippers' Council.
In listening to the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Hill-Norton, it struck me that the point that he made about a special committee was a sound one, but it crossed my mind that perhaps it is unfortunate from the point of view of exporters and traders, whose views I shall try to put to your Lordships, that the responsibility for shipping has been moved from Trade to Transport, because it will emphasise yet more the difference that there is between how the Government look at shipping and how the Government look at trading.

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Twenty years ago conferences could call the tune in their dealings with shipper customers for export from the United Kingdom, because collectively they had a monopoly position, and they used it. Since then demands by British trade unions, on which the noble Lord, Lord Underhill, commented, however well justified from their point of view, have made British shipping so uncompetitive that it is becoming increasingly difficult for even the most patriotic trader to justify using it. It is a sad thing to have to say, in view of what other noble Lords have said, but it is a fact, especially so when overseas competitors are subsidised. But even without that added burden, how can a ship be competitive if its crew has to have five months' leave during the year, when a Taiwanese crew, for example, has only one month? It means, in effect, two crews for every ship. I cannot see how we can continue that way if we want the British shipping industry to survive.
It is against that background that one considers the report of the Select Committee. From the point of view of traders the report is profoundly disappointing, because its very tenor shows a bias towards the interests of the shipping companies. I appreciate that it would be a disaster with probable strategic implications for Britain to have no merchant fleet. The noble Lords, Lord Hill-Norton and Lord Greenhill, mentioned that. It would be an even greater disaster if British exports, on which our survival as an independent country absolutely depends, were to be priced out of the world market to preserve a declining shipping industry.
I am forced to the conclusion, therefore, to which both the noble Lords, Lord Greenhill and Lord Hill-Norton, came, that in the end there must be some sort of subsidy. If there is a strategic need to retain the merchant fleet—and I believe there is—it has to be subsidised out of defence funds, like its principal rival the Soviet merchant navy. It is an inescapable solution for shipping. Perhaps then it might be able to present reasonable rates to shippers, to the traders who would like, if they could, to use its services, provided that they were competitively charged.
In examining the report's summary of conclusions in detail, I turned to pages xxxii and xxxiii to pick out particular points on which I believe the committee went in the wrong direction. The first is in the general conclusions in sub-paragraph 100(k), which says that any regulation must take full account of the United Nations code and its effect on competition. Of course, it has to do that in the sense that the regulation is written for that purpose. But that is not comparing like with like because the UNCTAD code relates to sharing cargoes and continuing the cartel and conferences, and Article 85 of the Treaty of Rome is all about ensuring competition and protecting consumers or customers by prohibiting cartels and price-fixing agreements and prohibiting abuses arising from a dominant market position.
The noble Lord, Lord Greenhill of Harrow, said that there is this great difference and therefore we should wait to see what the code produces and should not rush into producing regulations. But the trouble with doing so is that, in the meantime, the traders may
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find that they cannot compete in the market. Traders must trade, and traders cannot trade if the competition rules are stacked up against them.
Because of this I suggest to my noble friend Lord Rochdale that perhaps his committee should have paid more regard to its own sub-paragraphs 100(i) and 100(j), which I support. I should perhaps remind your Lordships of what those paragraphs said. Paragraph 100(i) says:
"Although the draft Regulations would not lead to any immediately identifiable legal conflict with foreign rules, there could be undesirable political repercussions".
Yes, indeed there could. We are having all sorts of trading difficulties, particularly in food trading, with all sorts of threats from the United States against practices which the EEC adopts. This is growing rather than diminishing. I should have thought that the balance of the report should have given greater regard to that. Paragraph 100(j) goes on to say:
"There is a risk under the draft rules that Community lines will be penalised more than foreign lines".
Yes, indeed, there is that risk. It needs saying more forcefully in covering the general conclusions.
Turning now to the points of disagreement. I pick up sub-paragraphs 100(d) and 100(e). Paragraph 100(d) says:
"A mandatory rule limiting loyalty agreements to a fixed proportion of a shipper's business would be unenforceable in practice".
That is the point that the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Hill-Norton, touched on briefly.
I am absolutely convinced by the arguments that have been presented to me by the British Shippers' Council that it is not the case that a mandatory rule limiting loyalty agreements to 70 per cent. would be unenforceable in practice. For a start, 80 per cent. of the United Kingdom exports are made by only 150 trading companies whose operations can be readily monitored. The remaining 20 per cent. of exports is spread over some 6,000 to 7,000 smaller concerns, each of whose custom accounts on average for a very small proportion of the cargo carried.
Also relevant is paragraph 3 of the British Shippers' Council's written evidence on page 50 of the report, especially the last sub-paragraph at the top of page 51. I will not bother with the detail of that but your Lordships may wish to turn to it. I mention it in that sense because I have a feeling that the committee, in producing its report, was carried away by the other evidence from other people who perhaps did not give sufficient consideration to the information provided for them by those who represented the customers.
I dislike saying this, especially in these days of containers, but ships are rather more like lorries than they used to be. We are talking about whether the lorry drivers should be the people to be given major consideration or whether it should be the people who provide them with the goods to carry on which their livelihood depends. I suggest to your Lordships that it is the people who provide the goods to carry whose view deserves greater weight than it has been given in the report.
Paragraph 100(e) of the Summary of Conclusions reads:
"Measures to counter disparities in rates would not be appropriate".

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On the contrary, some action is essential if the competitiveness of the British exporter vis-à-vis his continental rival is to be fair and equal. In touching on this point in his recent speech to the General Council of British Shipping at their annual dinner, my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Transport said, among other things:
"We want all markets to remain open. Our exporters and our importers must remain as they now are, free to ship their goods with the carrier of their choice because the marketing of our exports and the cost of our imports both depend upon it".
It seems to me that my right honourable friend the Secretary of State recognises that to trade successfully an exporter must have fair competition. The circumstances which led to the production of this report are tending not to give him that fair competition. For that reason, I believe that the reasoning in paragraph 87 of the report relating to the question of disparity in rates appears very weak. A better line of approach would be that in the British Shippers' Council's recent submission to the Department of Trade on this subject, at the foot of page 53 and the head of page 54.
In view of the fact that I feel that the balance in the report is wrong, it distresses me somewhat—as the splendid reports of the Select Committee, which are now highly regarded throughout Europe, are well read in the Commission and the European Parliament, and indeed, I believe, by Governments of other member states—that this report will in fact be read by them but they will not get copies of Hansard, so they will not have the opportunity to read that there is another point of view in which the balance of the argument perhaps might be shifted a bit towards the people who are the customers of the shipping lines. It would be helpful if my noble friend on the Front Bench could tell me whether an attempt to convey a different opinion on a report of this nature is an effort which the Government would feel they could put across to our fellow members of the Community and to the commission.
In conclusion, I repeat that the survival of this country and of our EEC partners as independent nations depends absolutely on competitively priced exports. This essential truth must dominate consideration of any study, such as the report we are debating, which has a relevance to exporting.
6.12 p.m.
Lord Greenway: My Lords, may I join other noble Lords who have already expressed a welcome to the report of the noble Viscount, Lord Rochdale. We all know of his great experience in the shipping world and the extremely hard work that he has put into the shipping industry over the years. In explaining his sub-committee's report, he casts his net very wide, and very sensibly, to bring in the general overall situation existing in shipping today. As it is not often that we have the opportunity of a fairly general debate on shipping, I find it doubly welcome.
We are all aware of the cyclical nature of the shipping industry. The noble Viscount, Lord Runciman, has referred to the depression in the 1930s. The same thing was happening a hundred years ago. These depressions affect everybody, big and small, in the shipping industry. If I may, I will recite the recent history of a well known large Danish company, DFDS.
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It might give your Lordships some indication of how quickly things can change in the industry. About 10 years ago, this company was going through a very bad period and they brought in new shipboard-management concepts which broke down the former centralised structure of the company and which in the course of five to seven years, proved to be very profitable to such an extent that last year DFDS, narrowing it down to the confines of their North Sea operations, had taken over almost all the competition and, in fact, had a virtual monopoly of North Sea passenger and railroad traffic. The position today, only a year later, is totally different. The company obviously overreached itself and is now going into a very speedy retrenchment, selling off ships left right and centre. Only today I see in the paper that they are thinking of selling off another part of their operation.
It has been said time and again that shipping and politics do not mix; but, with protection and subsidy as it exists today, the position cannot be said to be any different now from the days of, say, Christopher Columbus and Francis Drake. On top of this, shipping has changed dramatically in the last 20 years with the advent, for instance of containers, and unforeseen circumstances such as the dramatic increase in oil prices. These in turn have brought massive waste to the shipping industry. Take, for instance, the advent of container ships. They displaced literally hundreds of comparatively new cargo liners, the finest of their type ever built, which were sold off to other countries which did not necessarily want them and did not necessarily know what to do with them either.
These container ships which were then built—and very expensive ships they are, too—were subsequently affected by the oil price rise, so that their steam turbine engines had to be ripped out and replaced by the more efficient diesel engines, leading to more waste. The recession brought about by the oil price rise has affected the tanker market enormously. We have the instance the other day—a record, perhaps—of a four-year-old very large crude carrier, or VLCC, sister of the ill-fated "Amoco Cadiz", being sold for scrap after only four years. And I do not think that this waste is necessarily going to end just like that.
We have heard from many noble Lords of the disastrous situation, the over-tonnaging and so on, which is facing shipping today, but, on top of that, we still have instances of certain companies ordering yet more ships. I may cite an example in the dry bulk trade, which is already highly depressed. They were the last of the trade to be so affected, but there is a company in Japan which recently placed an order (or is thinking of placing an order) for 100 bulk carriers. That can do nothing but exacerbate an already very alarming situation. It is not a happy situation.
May I digress, my Lords, to say a brief word about manning, which the noble Lord, Lord Underhill, brought up? I think that perhaps here ship-owners are beginning to learn through their own experience that using cheaper foreign crews to man their ships is not necessarily a cost-effective operation. I should like to cite one example about which I heard recently, where an experienced seagoing man took passage on a new chemical tanker. He was awoken in the middle of the night to find all hell broken loose and he felt that the ship was breaking up around him. He scrambled up to

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the bridge as fast as he could, where he found the master grim set and determined, looking out of the bridge windows and the ship steaming into a force 10 gale at revolutions which would have given her her normal maximum surface speed and she was in fact making only two or three knots. This gentleman asked the master what he was doing. The master walked over to a corner of the bridge, pulled out a massive tome and thumbed through it. He eventually arrived at the passage he was looking for and displayed it. It said:
"Masters must use utmost diligence in ensuring the speediest transit times between ports".
That is only a small example, but it shows the sort of thing that can occur when ship-owners choose to use foreign crews.
What are the Government going to do? I suspect not very much. A recent shipping Minister confided in me not very long ago that he was anxious to help ship-owners but he found it very difficult because they could never agree on precisely what they wanted. I suspect that that is due to the very complex nature and diversification of the present-day shipping industry. One thing is certain: more restriction and legislation such as the EEC proposals are not necessarily going to help and can only lead to further inefficiency in the longe term, which is of benefit neither tonor shipper.
On the subject of inefficiency, I am brought round to the Soviet and COMECON merchant fleets, which have already been referred to by several speakers. There we have perhaps the biggest bureaucracy in the world, and bureaucracy leads to inefficiency. That is a saving grace, as far as we are concerned in shipping. If the Red fleet were as efficient as ours we should be in trouble. They are competition indeed, but far more worrying—and I am sure the Government are aware of this—is the competition from the aggressively efficient outsiders: companies such as Taiwan's Evergreen and Yang Ming. The former is soon to start a new round-the-world container service which will include a North Atlantic leg, thus further adding to the confused and over-tonnaged position there already.
Perhaps at this stage I may add a tiny tongue-in-cheek rider, if I can find it in my notes, from today's issue of Fairplay, which I found in your Lordship's Library. It refers to the recent comments of Mr. John Eyre, the former chief executive of Canada's last foreign-going deep sea merchant fleet. He made a speech recently in which he drew attention to Canada's foreign shipping policy, the finest shipping policy of all—that of a zero deep sea merchant fleet. He said it was perhaps tough luck on the handful of deep water seamen but, with rates depressed, a huge surplus of shipping and a shortage of cargo, the majority of Canadians—farmers, manufacturers, miners and paper mills—enjoyed excellent shipping services and low rates. It is this, rather than the erudite theories of UNCTAD which he feels will eventually carry the day in favour of the traders, even though it takes a little time.
"Time" is the critical word there. I certainly am not suggesting that our Government should adopt such a policy, but I think some of the developing countries would do well to take note of the implications. They are learning the hard way at the moment—and
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especially today, when I read that Nigeria is thinking of cancelling an order for new ships because the banks will not give them the necessary finance. In conclusion, I think the committee's suggestion of the deferment of the draft regulation is a wise one. Time will produce the answer, as it always has done in the past.
6.24 p.m.
Lord Geddes: My Lords, like my noble kinsman the noble Viscount, Lord Runciman, I have to declare an interest in that I hold office in a British shipowning company. Indeed, one of our ships has recently returned from duty in the Falklands after 15 months—the second longest continual period of service by a merchant vessel in that area.
The noble Viscount, Lord Rochdale, and his sub-committee have clearly done this House a great service in providing this report and I very much echo the comments that have been made already in that respect. The task of the sub-committee was to address itself to competition policy, shipping. It did so with great skill but only with regard to liner shipping, which of course includes container shipping, bulk shipping and ferries. There are, as has already been pointed out, other areas of shipping, also important to our country and to our owners. I will restrict my comments, if I may, to an area not so far coverd in the debate today; namely, the offshore support vessel industry.
My noble friend Lord Lucas will, I am sure, know that the General Council of British Shipping has had discussions with a number of relevant government departments on the specific subject of the United Kingdom offshore support vessel industry. Indeed, I am aware that on that subject the president of the GCBS wrote last month to my right honourable friends the Secretaries of State for Energy, Transport, Scotland and Trade and Industry. It would be entirely wrong for me to draw your Lordships' attention to the detailed context of such correspondence, but I hope your Lordships will allow me to paraphrase what I personally have said at three recent ship launches in this country over the last year.
In the context of fair competition in the offshore support vessel industry, offshore exploration and support is an international business, and surely we would not have it otherwise. But "international" does not seem to mean the same thing to all people. If we look at the statistics as they affect the activities and employment of the 289 offshore vessels currently in the North Sea, your Lordships will see how fair or unfair the position is. Of the 289, 32 are currently laid up and a further 30 uncommitted, leaving 227, if my mathematics are correct, employed on charter. Of those 227, 86 are Norwegian, 82 British, and 59 others. "Others" covers a fascinating variety of Dutch, Danish, German, American, Panamanian, Cypriot, Singaporean, and Bermudean.
So far so good; but when an examination is made on a sector-by-sector basis the following situation emerges: 142 vessels are employed in the British sector, of which apparently—and I shall return very carefully to that word in a moment—55 per cent. are British, 25 per cent. are Norwegian and 20 per cent. other. In the Norwegian sector there are 49 vessels employed, of which all 49–100 per cent.—are Norwegian flag. This sector flag disparity is not a new

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phenomenon but it has become exaggerated as the economic depression has deepened.
The problem appears to be three-fold: first, Norwegian versus British tax regulations, which encourage consortia of Norwegian private individuals to own ships; secondly, the Norwegian Government's credit terms are available, to the best of my knowledge, only on ships built in Norway and allow a three-year moratorium on loan capital repayments; and, thirdly, there is compulsory pilotage for non-Norwegian flag vessels operating into Norwegian ports on average every other day—whereas all vessels operating similarly at United Kingdon ports require a pilot regardless of their flag.
The effect of those factors is to give positive encouragement to the Norwegians to have off-shore support vessels built in Norway, and they enable such Norwegian owners to offer their ships at rates which have been calculated as at least £1,000 per day less than United Kingdom owners on otherwise like-for-like bases. Your Lordships will perhaps appreciate how catastrophic this is for the British off-shore supply vessel owners, when I say that this week one of our British built, British flag, British owned, British Government financed, British crewed vessels was employed at £1,200 per day gross, about half her break-even rate—hardly a climate to encourage British ship-owners to invest their money in British ships built, one hopes, in the United Kingdom.
That is not all. Such has been the conscience of both international charterers and Norwegian owners that, under pressure from the United Kingdom Off-shore Supplies Office, a number of Norwegian owners have recently set up—quite legitimately, I hasten to add, under existing legislation—brass-plate subsidiary companies in the United Kingdom and have switched their vessels from Norwegian to British flag and crew. By so doing, they have satisfied the current brief of the Off-shore Supplies Office, which under present legislation is restricted to the promotion within the United Kingdom sector of British flag and crew. It makes no reference to ownership.
While that is good news for British seafarers—and I genuinely applaud that—and indeed good news for Her Majesty's Exchequer, assuming that a taxable profit is made, it gives no lasting benefit either to the United Kingdom as a country, or to the United Kingdom's shipping industry, since in the example that I have given the ultimate owner remains Norwegian. He can retain his favourable finance terms and tax advantages, and leave United Kingdom ownership at will when he wishes. Such "flagging-in", as it is called, is pure window-dressing.
I earlier described the apparent statistics of national flag vessels in the United Kingdom sector as being 55 per cent. British, 25 per cent. Norwegian, and 20 per cent. other. If flags of United Kingdom brass-plate companies are put back to their ultimate owners, those same statistics for vessels in the United Kingdom sector become 38 per cent. British, 33 per cent. Norwegian, and 29 per cent. other; and, not surprisingly, the Norwegian sector statistics remain at 100 per cent. Norwegian flag. To put it another way, the Norwegians have one-third of the work in our sector, and we have none in theirs—hardly a chance happening.
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May I comment that we, as British ship-owners, are proud to be British. We are confident of our ability to match, or better, ships of any other flag, provided that "all's fair". In the offshore support vessel industry, it is not. I urge my noble friend the Minister to ensure that the letters from the GCBS are read and understood, and that urgent action is taken not only by the four relevant departments, but also by the four Secretaries of State themselves. We are only 37 days away from 1984. I entreat my noble friend the Minister to ensure that all animals are indeed equal, and that the Norwegian husky is not more equal than the British bulldog.
6.34 p.m.
Lord Lucas of Chilworth: My Lords, at the outset I, too, should like to extend my thanks to my noble friend Lord Rochdale and his committee for the work which they undertook in the production of the report that we are discussing tonight. May I also add my thanks to him for his very clear explanation of the conclusions to which his committee came. While I am on the "thanking" side of our debate, may I thank him for his very kind remarks which were particularly directed towards officials in my department, when he was discussing the evidence which they gave. I wish, first, to respond to the report, because so very many points have been made that I think it will be helpful if I do that; and then, given sufficient time, I shall attempt to respond to the points made in the wider context of this afternoon's debate.
We have heard that the proposed European Community regulation is concerned with liner conferences. Liner conferences exist because Governments worldwide have been prepared in varying degrees to exempt shipping from the anti-cartel laws that apply in other industries. In the United Kingdom, this is reflected in the Restrictive Trade Practices Acts. It was put rather differently by my noble friend but that, in effect, is what it is about. This is a long-standing policy and it was, as we have been reminded, endorsed by my noble friend in his very important report of 1970, the Rochdale Committee report. It remains Government policy today, although of course it has inevitably become more controversial. However, there is one very important condition: conferences must not merely be Government-sanctioned monopolies. They are acceptable only as long as they are exposed to competition from any shipping line that chooses to compete with the conference on a commercial basis. Governments have favoured what has been called the "closed conference in the open trade".
My noble friend Lord Mottistone spoke at some length on the UNCTAD arrangements—the 1974 Code of Conduct on Liner conferences. Following ratification by Germany and the Netherlands earlier this year, the code entered into force last month between those countries which have ratified it. The Merchant Shipping (Liner Conferences) Act 1982 will allow the United Kingdom to accede. The main purpose of the code is to give the shipping lines of developing countries a right to share in the business of conferences. Community countries, however, are acceding on the basis of the "Brussels package", which my noble friend Lord Rochdale described to us. This is designed to ensure that, whatever protection may be

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given to developing countries, developed OECD and Community countries will be able to participate in the rest of each conference's business on an essentially non-discriminatory basis.
However, pressures continue from many developing countries to go well beyond the code and to apply cargo-sharing not just to that part of the trade carried by conferences, but to all liner cargoes; in other words, to suppress competition in liner shipping altogether. This would clearly run counter to our national interests: first, because we are a major cross-trading nation and our direct freight earnings alone on cross-trades account for two-thirds of our shipping revenues—something of the order of £1,540 million a year; and, secondly, because, as a major trading country, we are dependent upon the efficient and competitive carriage of our own exports. The right to compete, if necessary outside the conference, is the only effective guarantee of these interests.
It should therefore be clear that the Government do not accept the conclusion of the committee, that the code says all that needs to be said about competition and that all the European regulation needs to do is to endorse the code. That would be a blank cheque to the conference system. It would not, we believe, even be acceptable to the least liberal of our Community partners. The UN code is not primarily about competition at all. In particular, it provides no solution to the grave problem posed when foreign Governments attempt to eliminate independent lines from our shipping routes, and impose monopolies depriving our traders of commercial choice of carrier.
The Government believe the Community competition regulation must allow us to oppose those pressures and must find ways of restoring competition when a foreign Government tries to suppress it. So this is one way in which the Government believe that, certainly in the international sphere, the Community's regulation must be able not merely to endorse the code but to preserve and foster competition.
The domestic environment, however, is just as important. The Government, in their evidence to the committee, pointed to the concern felt by exporters: that they appeared to face substantially higher rates for the shipment of their goods than those faced by their continental competitors. The British Shippers' Council considered that competition appeared to be generally more vigorous on the continent, and argued that "loyalty agreements", which are often less well observed there than here, could be a significant factor. In their evidence last year to the committee, and also in a parliamentary reply on 20th October of last year in another place, the Government said that they considered that loyalty ties should be limited so that they may not pre-empt more than 70 per cent. of any one shipper's business. This has proved controversial, and we have heard this afternoon from a number of noble Lords that this is so.
I should make it quite clear, however, that the Government are in no doubt that the general exemption of liner conferences from both national and Community anti-cartel legislation should continue. Nor is there any question of banning loyalty ties, as the United States Congress may be on the point of doing. It is a question of balance, and the Government
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remain open to persuasion on this matter from both sides. I take this opportunity to assure the House that my honourable friend the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State is taking a very close and very personal interest in it. Under his direction, exporters' views are being sought through the British Shippers' Council and the British Overseas Trade Board on whether the disparities in freight rates still cause undue and widespread concern. Clearly it is essential that the Government's information on such a vital point should be up to date. And while arrangements for the enforcement of loyalty ties are essentially a commercial matter to be worked out between conference and customer, the Government stand ready to help if the two sides wish. Meanwhile, the British proposal for a 70 per cent. limit on loyalty ties remains on the table in Brussels. But I repeat that we are open to any new arguments or evidence that ship-owners or shippers may wish to bring forward.
These, then, are the Government's views on the general issues covered by the noble Viscount's committee. As to the specific conclusions in the first part of paragraph 100 of the report, many of those conclusions are shared by the Government. The Government agree with the committee's conclusions on bulk shipping; on the unacceptability of retrospective annulment by the commission of conference agreements; on currency adjustment factors; and on passenger ferries where the return of collective price-fixing would not be welcome.
May I now turn to some of the points which have been made in the debate. Noble Lords will, I am sure, appreciate that it may not be possible for me to cover every point, but I have taken note of those which appear to have been raised on more than one occasion. In particular, nearly every noble Lord who has contributed to the debate has discussed in part, if not in whole, the decline of the fleet. My noble friend Lord Rochdale began by referring us to the CIT publication, the picture on the front of which is entitled "Endangered Species". The noble Lord, Lord Underhill, mentioned two other publications. But the facts are perhaps not quite so dramatic as either noble Lord has set out. There is no argument that the United Kingdom merchant fleet, measured by its total tonnage, has fallen by nearly a half since its all-time peak in 1975. For many years tanker tonnage has been predominant in United Kingdom tonnage, and the decline in that tonnage accounts for the major part of the decline in the United Kingdom fleet. The high-earning container fleet has increased in tonnage since 1975. We have the third largest container fleet in the world. Only those of the United States of America and Japan are larger.
I could debate with your Lordships some of the reasons which have contributed to the decline, and perhaps it would be helpful were I to note one or two: the weakness of demand, partly due to world recession; other consequences of the oil upset nearly 10 years ago; changing trading patterns, and so on. But the overriding reason is that which the noble Lord, Lord Greenway, mentioned in his very interesting speech; namely, wastage. There is a huge wastage of shipping. The fleets of the developing countries which have come into the markets have contributed to this decline.

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It would not be true to say that the Government cannot have any influence on these factors, but it is broadly true to say that the Government cannot influence them sufficiently to make a major difference to the situation which the fleet faces. The Government have to consider what they should do in the national interest, by looking at the role and prospects of the fleet in the environment which exists today. We have to ensure that the markets remain open to our fleets in these days of creeping protectionism, both by the developed countries, with existing fleets, and by developing countries seeking to promote their national lines. We have to make strenuous efforts in international negotiations to secure the maximum amount of open access for our vessels.
It was the noble Lord, Lord Greenhill of Harrow, who asked me to respond to his plea that the Government should change their policy. I have to reject the noble Lord's plea this evening. I repeat: our belief is that we should attempt by negotiation to keep markets open to British shipping. We shall not succeed in doing so if we adopt a protectionist attitude towards the industry. My noble friend Lord Mottistone quoted from the speech of my right honourable friend the Secretary of State in November to the General Council of British Shipping, when my right honourable friend emphasised this point. He was responding to what the president of the General Council of British Shipping had said in his presidential address in May of this year. To paraphrase, the president said that he did not want protectionism; he did not want to become another arm of government and to be spoonfed with money; he did not wish to be the nurse at the dripfeed of resources; but wanted to represent an industry which was alive, very efficient and earning its own living.
The noble Lord, Lord Underhill, the noble Lord, Lord Greenway, and my noble friend Lord Mottistone raised questions loosely under the heading of manning. The noble Lord, Lord Greenhill, said that manning levels and their cost were perhaps one element, but that there were other relevant factors. He outlined some of them. The noble Lord, Lord Greenway, said that cheaper crews were not necessarily the answer to a less expensive operation in the long term. As usual, my noble friend Lord Mottistone reminded us in his pragmatic way of the different holiday entitlement of crews from various countries.
A number of noble Lords referred to defence requirements, and it is important that I say something about them at this stage. Whether or not a declining merchant fleet can match defence requirements is a question frequently asked. The Falklands operation examplified merchant shipping's defence role. It may not be generally realised, however, that the capability of the Government to proceed with last year's rapid mobilisation of merchant shipping for the Falklands Task Force depended in part on the regular peace-time monitoring of the merchant fleet's defence capabilities—undertaken then by the Department of Trade and now by the Department of Transport.
As a result, the department knew what ships were available when the requirements were declared. The monitoring of the fleet capability to which I have referred is now done by the Department of Transport, and it is a continuing monitoring. We are always
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informed of relevant shipping requirements by colleagues at the Ministry of Defence. The Government's view continues to be that the United Kingdom merchant fleet can currently meet all foreseen requirements.
I will touch very briefly on the contribution of my noble friend Lord Geddes, who spoke about the offshore industry. Many want to see the United Kingdom make the distinction, as others have made it, between deep sea trades, on the one hand, and coastal and offshore trades, on the other. While there is certainly a higher degree of protectionism worldwide in the latter trades, in terms of voyage in United Kingdom coastal trades, only 17 per cent. are accounted for by foreign flags; two-thirds of that by EC flag ships.
There is no evidence of any protection of its North Sea sector by Norway. The tax rates received by Norwegian shipping companies, to which my noble friend referred, and to which the noble Lord, Lord Underhill, also referred, are perhaps no more generous than those received by our own. It can be very dangerous to treat financial benefits received by foreign companies as a reason for keeping their ships out of our own markets. What conclusions would those competitors come to? I can assure my noble friend that I am aware of the General Council of British Shipping's recent papers put to some Secretaries of State. I can assure him that they are being most carefully looked at. All the papers are under active consideration now and he would not, therefore, expect me to give any further views on that topic tonight.
The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Hill-Norton, spoke at some length of the United States and extraterritorial difficulties. I believe it would be more helpful if I were to leave that matter and turn my attention instead to his vigorous plea for a Ministry of Sea. I would have to reject his suggestion. Government departments direct their efforts in the main to meeting objectives. When objectives have been totally identified and have been collected together, it is then decided which department is best able to meet those objectives. It would be rather odd—would it not?—if we decided on a Ministry of Sea to look after the Royal Navy; what would the Ministry of Defence then do? Would it look after just the Army or the Royal Air Force alone?
We try to group objectives and have them dealt with by the most appropriate department. We believe that the present arrangement, whereby the Secretary of State for Transport has the leading role in coordinating maritime policy while other Ministers continue to have the primary role for some specific fields, if necessary, is the most satisfactory one.
My noble friend Lord Rochdale drew attention to the USSR fleet, as did the noble Lord, Lord Greenway—who also drew attention, which had not been done before, to other new entrants into the maritime industry. He sounded a warning note; not only to the House tonight, but I suspected also to some of those new entrants. The only point I would make in the Soviet context is that in our bilaterial shipping relations with them, the Government have made it quite clear to their authorities that the Government are not prepared to see United Kingdom cruise

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operators damaged by non-commercial competition from Soviet cruise ships. In our bilateral trade, the Government's objective is to correct the long-standing imbalance in general cargo carryings with the USSR. Some progress has been made in all those areas and discussions continue. It is interesting to note that Soviet ships carry 1½ per cent. only of British trade; and two-thirds of that is direct between the United Kingdom and the USSR.
I have probably left a number of questions unanswered. If I said that this has been a useful debate covering a number of important shipping topics, I would probably be under-estimating the value of the two and half hours or so that we have spent on it this afternoon and evening. On the main issue before us, I hope that I have been able to give your Lordships a convincing explanation as to why the Government do not feel able simply to accept all the arguments of Lord Rochdale's Select Committee's report.
I hope, too, that I have been able to carry some conviction in expressing the regard which the Government have had, and will continue to give, to the arguments of the committee. As I have said, the other issues raised have covered a wide range. I shall obviously study Hansard tomorrow and if there are any points I can usefully answer in greater detail, noble Lords can be assured that I will be totally willing to do so. If any noble Lord feels that I have missed any point completely, then I do hope that he will get in touch with me.
Finally, I turn to a matter which I consider to be not more important but certainly of great importance; the report itself. I should tell your Lordships that next month the transport Ministers of the Ten will probably be invited to agree upon some of the less controversial aspects of the proposed regulation in Brussels. It is likely to be a good time yet before the regulation as a whole is adopted. Once the regulation passes into Community law, it is likely to remain in force for a very long time. It will not be easily revised; a fluid situation will have frozen. So the regulation we have debated has to fit, to serve the interests of shipping lines and their customers. It has to do that well into the future—in good times and in less than good times. The Government will be making every effort to ensure that the Community gets it right when it is finding agreement.
Viscount Rochdale: My Lords, may I first thank all noble Lords who have taken part in this debate, and thank also my noble friend Lord Lucas of Chilworth for covering such a wide field. I was particularly interested in his last remark concerning the meeting of transport Ministers in, I believe, a month's time. I only hope that our report will be of some use when those discussions take place.
With such a very wide field as shipping, with so many very complex issues, obviously there are bound to be many different points of view. I personally would like on some occasion—but not this evening—to take issue with my noble friend Lord Mottistone and some of his points. But it has been a very useful debate. There has been an encouraging degree of agreement on many issues and I am most grateful.
On Question, Motion agreed to.

Milk-based Drinks (Hygiene and Heat Treatment) Regulations 1983 (S.I. 1983, No. 1508)
7 p.m.
Lord Graham of Edmonton Lord Graham of Edmonton rose to move, That an humble Address be presented to Her Majesty praying that the regulations be annulled.
The noble Lord said: My Lords, I beg to move the first Prayer standing in my name on the Order Paper, although I am given to understand that it will be in order during the debate to refer to all the Prayers on the issue before the matter is resolved.
I have the honour and the opportunity to speak first in what I consider to be a very important debate, and I am very conscious indeed that there are Members on all sides of the House who will be able to speak from their experience and their qualification and also from their professions, so that the debate in my view will be a very well informed one indeed. My credentials for speaking in this debate can be briefly stated. I am a consumer of milk and milk products. I have already told this House of my lifelong association with the Co-operative movement and I wish to declare that that association continues today and will for a very long time in the future.
I declare a further interest, too. The very first trade union I joined as a young man was the Union of Shop Distributive and Allied Workers. At that time, so long ago, it was called NUDAW, the National Union of Distributive and Allied Workers. Many of the arguments that I deploy will be those which have been given to me by those two bodies, with which I shall continue to have a long and proud association. I am also a director of the Enfield and St. Albans Cooperative Society, and the annual milk sales of that society are four million gallons—not, in the context of the total global sales of milk, of enormous significance, but, if those are the sales of one Society and that is a reflection of the penetration of co-operative milk sales throughout the country, those will represent between 25 and 30 per cent. of the milk that is sold on the doorsteps of Britain at this time.
There are many facets to this problem. I want to begin by saying that I do not underestimate the dilemma which has faced the Government, not merely tonight or last week or even during 1983 but for a number of years past, so far as this is concerned. I do appreciate the dilemma of the Government, but, in my view, although not all the problems are of their making, I fear they have made the situation worse by placing their adherence to the nostrums of the EEC before their responsibilities to the British people.
That is a serious charge and I am under some obligation and some duty to substantiate it. I start from the doorstep and the damage that these orders will do to the continuation of doorstep delivery of fresh milk and milk products. Others will deal with health and with hygiene and with the effect on British farming.
I am sorry that my noble friend Lord John-Mackie is not able to be in his place tonight, because, when I addressed a packed and angry meeting of consumers in Enfield last week and mentioned to them the possibility that Lord John-Mackie might be speaking

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here, they recalled with great affection that he had been their MP at Enfield East and they certainly continue to hold him in very high regard. However, I am delighted and grateful indeed that my noble friend Lady David is here to support from the Labour Front Bench the case that I am making.
I have not only read the Hansard report of last week's debate in another place, I actually listened to it from beginning to end. After all that, I hear in my head the same question over and over again: why, why, why? Why give more than we have been asked for? The Minister must know that this whole debate is centred, in my view, on three questions: first, why exceed the remit from the European Court? Secondly, why show such alacrity to comply with the judgment? Thirdly, why have the Government ignored so completely the extra dimensions of their decisions, such as the social effect and employment consequences.
Let us look closely at the decision of the European Court in February this year. When the then Minister of Agriculture made his Statement on it, he said:
"The judgment in the case related to the United Kingdom imports of ultra heat-treated milk."
That was all it related to. When the Importation of Milk Bill was before Parliament on 10th May this year, the Parliamentary Under-Secretary was even more specific. She said:
"I should like to repeat that the judgment applies only to UHT milk, which accounts for such a small share—one per cent.—of the UK market."
The best that one can make out as to why these orders now include sterilised milk and frozen pasteurised cream came in the speech of the Secretary of State last week in another place when he said, at col. 911:
"The judgment was confined to UHT milk because that was the subject of the complaint before the court, which, in its judgment, interpreted how the provisions of articles 30 and 36 of the treaty should be applied. Those articles are of general scope and apply to all kinds of milk. We"—
That is, the Government—
"how the principles laid down by the court should apply to other types of milk." [Official Report (Commons), 16/11/83; Col. 911.]
In other words, what flows from those decisions in the court have been, if not wholly, substantially in the gift of the interpretation of the Government; it is the way the Government have interpreted their responsibilities and duties that we complain of tonight. We ask the Government, why the Government of this country should voluntarily go further than we know other countries would go simply to show good Common Market subservience, even when there are so many potential catastrophic consequences for British tradition and British jobs.
Yes, my Lords, I know what the Minister is going to say at some stage: that he has faith in the British milk production and distribution network and that they will be able to face all these challenges. I say to the Minister that I, too, have faith in the competitive spirit of the milk distributive trades. They have been fighting for their lives for many years. Why saddle this hardworking section of British industry with an unnecessary handicap, a flood of sterilised milk? And why create 17 points of entry to facilitate this unfair, unwanted, unnecessary burden, which can destroy the whole of an industry?
Let us not underestimate the size of the industry we are talking about tonight; 33 million pints of milk a day are sold on the doorsteps, 4½ pints per person and 12 pints per household every week; 16 million homes have a delivery every day; there are £2,500 million annual sales of milk, and 75,000 people employed in processing and distribution alone. I have seen various figures about the totality of the employment at risk, but of course it depends on what one includes. Another more significant factor is that 98 per cent. of the people now receiving milk on the doorstep want doorstep delivery to continue in the future.
So what are we about tonight in this debate? What, practically, can we do? We are trying to do nothing less than make a last attempt to persuade the Government to put British tradition, British people, British jobs, British health above all else. The threat to an ability to maintain doorstep deliveries of fresh British milk will come from the licence these orders give French farmers to dump their surplus milk, already subsidised by the CAP at a loss-leader price, into our supermarkets. If pennies cheaper can influence consumer demand—and they can—one percentage point fewer sales on the doorstep will turn a marginal milk round into an uneconomic one. Rationalisation of rounds will take place, but 5 per cent. fewer sales will spell total disaster. The Union of Shop Distributive and Allied Workers informs me that at risk are the jobs of 55,000 distributive workers, 15,000 process workers, and a further 15,000 jobs in road haulage, glass manufacture and electric vehicle construction. In a statement made after the debate in another place Mr. Garfield Davies, the national officer of USDAW, said:
"The unions in the milk industry owe it to their members to save the 180,000 jobs at stake, and we owe it to the customers, 98 per cent. of whom want to continue to be able to buy their fresh British milk on their doorstep".
I attended a meeting in Enfield on Tuesday night, just two days ago. At that meeting, there were milkmen from the Co-op, the Express and Unigate. They presented me with petitions which totaled 32,000 signatures that they had received on the doorstep in the small area around Enfield. If your Lordships will permit, I shall read that petition:
"We, the undersigned, request that Her Majesty's Government withdraw the proposal to change the law to lift the ban on importing milk. We believe that any changes in the law to conform to the European Court ruling should be confined to UHT milk and allow for controls on quantity and quality as well as a phase-in period".
That is not an unreasonable request, particularly from men who have worked hard all their lives and who fear that their livelihood is at risk by virtue of what the Government intend to do.
It only requires between 5 and 10 per cent. of milk requirements to be lost on doorstep deliveries to begin the domino effect which I have spelled out. With 98 per cent. of customers wishing to retain doorstep deliveries, the vast majority may have their wishes thwarted by the small minority.
There are others better qualified than I to speak on both the need for and the effectiveness of the regulations designed to keep our milk clean and to keep out foot and mouth disease. I know that there are arguments and genuine fears, but the Minister bears a heavy responsibility for causing them. The Government can effectively police all stages of milk

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production in this country. Apart from the regulations at the ports, how can the Government ensure that French farms conform to the high standards that apply on British farms? Can the Minister tell us what additional steps the Government will be taking inside the EEC not only to make sure that the milk conforms to our standards when it arrives at our ports but to try to encourage the raising of standards in the other parts of the EEC?
This compliance with EEC dogma has appalled responsible sections of British life: the Dairy Trade Federation, the Milk Marketing Board, the Glass Manufacturers' Federation, Help the Aged, the National Farmers' Union, and of course the Cooperative Movement and the Union of Shop, Distributive and Allied Workers. I fear for the future of doorstep deliveries. These orders are against the best interests of the milk consumer, the milk producer, the milk industry and Britain itself. Until the orders are fully operational we shall protest. When we have gathered the evidence that this action is destroying a vital element of the British economy, we shall not hesitate to return to the Government and face those who bear witness to this folly.
In another place the issue was resolved with a vote. Here we are somewhat circumscribed by events but we are entitled to many, many answers. In the name of millions of consumers and workers we want those answers tonight. Therefore, I beg to move the first prayer standing in my name on the Order Paper.
Moved, That an humble Address be presented to Her Majesty praying that the regulations be annulled.—(Lord Graham of Edmonton.)
7.14 p.m.
Lord Monk Bretton: My Lords, I must confess that I am glad that the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, has prayed against these orders. I am anxious, I must at once say, to stick to the conventions of this House about voting against orders. However, I am glad that this debate enables me to express my serious concern about the orders.
I am a dairy farmer although, like so many dairy farmers, not 100 per cent. dairying; but at least that gives me the chance to understand the difficulties which the Government have on other commodities. I am not anti-Community either. However, I believe we must carefully defend our national interest in certain areas and two areas which I believe are of very great importance are fisheries and milk. We have not been too successful with fisheries and I do not want to see a disaster with the milk industry. We live on an island and these two industries are of considerable strategic importance to us.
Milk is our cheapest protective food. The dairy industry has often been described as the sheet anchor of British agriculture. Milk sales total 21 per cent. of the gross sales of the industry, and that is only the tip of the iceberg, bearing in mind that the dairy herd is the basis of our beef supplies. Our dairy herd is not large. It is half the size of the dairy herd in France and there are very good reasons for thinking that, whatever we do, we should strive to make sure that it is not reduced. It is also worth mentioning, in passing, that
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the livestock industry is a part of agriculture that does not burn straw.
We should stand our ground and not sell out too easily. Traditionally the market for our dairy herds has been liquid milk. I believe our consumption per head is three and a half times that of France, which is an astounding figure. About 85 per cent. is doorstep delivery. Our milk is a very good product; and it must be to achieve the use to which it is put. In comparison, I should like to say a word about what happens in France. I ought to be fair and say that the French eat more cheese and yoghurt than do we. However, they have little faith in French milk. Last spring the Farmer's Weekly reported a survey that had been conducted in France which said that one-third of French housewives boil their pasteurised milk before using it. Whether that reflects on the milk or the housewives, I do not know, but I do not suppose the housewives are foolish. It is a pity that the French do not manage to develop their liquid market better, instead of adding to the butter mountain, and that other EC countries do not realise that they have something to learn from us, albeit slowly, about the way to exploit a liquid market.
I must turn to what happened in Holland when UHT and other milk appeared in the shops. Doorstep deliveries fell from 90 per cent. to 25 per cent. and the total liquid consumption fell by 25 per cent. I believe this happened in a remarkably short space of time—about two years. That shows how devastating the effect could be. The official hope in this country is that it may never happen. I confess I am not so optimistic. Other noble Lords who are to speak will probably be able to explain why. I do not want to go too far on that line because my noble friend will know that his right honourable friend in another place said that this was, in a way, negative criticism because we have signed a treaty which we must honour, and that we must start from there. So from now on I shall try to discuss health issues.
The first point to mention is that none of the heat processes referred to in the orders will deal with contaminants in milk; namely, antibiotics, pesticide residues and aflatoxins. Aflatoxins come from those feeds that can induce cancer in the cow, and in those consuming her milk. We stopped using ground nut cake when we discovered that it was a source of aflatoxins. I think that pesticide residues and antibiotics are contaminants that this House will understand.
I believe that our record in controlling these contaminants is substantially better than the records of others, and I shall quote what was said by the Milk Marketing Board:
"Analyses of foreign milks have shown that pesticide and aflatoxin levels in continental milk supplies are much higher than in UK supplies. Pesticide and antibiotic levels in Southern Ireland milk are also very high".
Obviously, it is very important to monitor this. I am very glad that Ministers have frequently mentioned the horrible taste of UHT milk, but I think when one thinks about contaminants there is rather more to complain about than that, and personally I should like to hear more of it.
Can we be satisfied about our own proposed inspection procedures on imported milk? It appears

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from the regulations that we accept the exporter's certificate unless from external examination there is something wrong. My reading of the regulations is that there is no real provision for regular spot checks. I am concerned about this because it is most important that these inspections should be really effective enough.
I should like to mention Irish milk, and I have some quotes which I wish to give. The Connaught Tribune of 10th June 1983 has as its headline,
"Antibiotics in 74 per cent. of samples taken in Western Survey".
That refers to the annual report for 1982 of the western region public analyst laboratory.
The Irish Times of 3rd October stated:
"Frighteningly high levels of antibiotic and hormonal residues have been found in Irish meat and milk products … unless tighter controls are introduced on the sale and use of antibiotics, growth promoters and anthelmintics (worm doses) for livestock, exports of Irish food may be affected soon".
The Veterinary College, Dublin stated that around 18 per cent. of milk supplied to dairies for liquid consumption in 1981 and 1982 contained antibiotic residues.
Finally, one headline stated—and this is almost back to the 18th century:
"And milk for school kids was watered down".
The report which followed referred to,
"levels of added water varing from 1 to 35 per cent. on at least nine occasions".
I think it is pertinent to mention that the actual standards laid down for milk production in Southern Ireland are the same as in Northern Ireland, but enforcement seems to be a difficulty and a notably different matter.
From there I should like to go on to ask whether we are now monitoring imports as well as we should. The Dairy Trade Federation told me that evidence has been found of high antibiotic levels in Irish UHT milk portions. These are the little fellows that one is given to pop into one's cup of tea; very often on airlines. The remedy, I have no doubt, is to demand British milk portions and fly the flag, but sometimes one is a captive clientele and one cannot do that.
Another thing that happened was in Harrod's, where a container for sale was labelled "Creme fraiche". There were also the words: "Fresh pasteurised cream from Normandy". It turned out that it was not that. It had a two-month shelf life, and therefore could not possibly be a fresh pasteurised product. I do not think that it is really quite known what that was.
I can only express concern for the public. Our own labelling of dairy products here has always been most rigidly controlled; so it is important. Is the inspection at point of entry going to be good enough? It would be helpful, I am sure, if my noble friend the Minister were able to enlarge a little on how this is to be done. I believe that at the moment the ports concerned inspect imported meat supplies. I wonder what facilities they are going to be given to deal with milk and whether they will make use of the milk marketing boards' facilities, and so forth.
There is also the question of chlostridum botulinum, which arises occasionally in UHT milk, and is an extremely devastating and poisonous thing. I should like to refer to some of the opinions of the trade. First, if the Department of Health says that 140
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sterilisation for two seconds for UHT processing is necessary for home produced cream and flavoured milks, the trade cannot see that it is unnecessary for UHT milk. In one case the comment I heard was that it was absurd to think there was any difference. Secondly, I could not find any evidence that the trade would not be ready to treat United Kingdom UHT milk at 140C for two seconds. The trade think that UHT imports should all be at 140C for two seconds, so far as I know.
I gather that my noble friend the Minister's right honourable friend in another place is sympathetic to all this, so I do not want to labour the point; but I should like to know whether it might be possible to amend these regulations at once, so that instead of 132C for one second, we can have 140C for two seconds. If it cannot be done at once, how soon can it be done? It may be that some people will say that this will make UHT milk nastier to drink and less easy to market, but my own view is that health considerations should undoubtedly come first.
Lastly, I should like to turn to the subject of pasteurised frozen cream and to say, first, that attempts at adequate common European hygiene rules have been going on since 1971. There has not been much progress. I do not think that there will be much progress for some time—perhaps never. One must always remember that perhaps different milk is produced for different purposes. That is going to take a long time and in the meantime the trade here do not consider it possible to guarantee satisfactory public health control for imports of any pasteurised products. The cream is a pasteurised product. The trouble is that once it is out of the frozen store, even when it is in the domestic refrigerator, the bugs can start multiplying up. I believe this import is by far the most questionable, in particular when it is remembered that, after all, pasteurised milk was ruled out. We let it in six years ago, and I wonder whether we therefore have to continue with this risk, or widen the problem beyond the Irish imports only. I do not know what difficulties there really need be with the European Court, because surely if it is subsequently found that a certain course is unsatisfactory on health grounds, it would be wrong to be held to continue that risk.
Times change, and knowledge improves. Obviously, it is the strongest argument for customers to buy British cream. I am sure that that is right. In matters of price, it is always true that you get what you pay for. But the ethics of advertising make it very difficult for the trade to tell the public why they should be buying British cream under these circumstances, because those ethics say that advertisers should not resort to instilling fear. From this, I conclude that this particular trade must be dealt with by the Government. It should if possible, be stopped—and soon.
7.30 p.m.
Viscount Thurso: My Lords, one cannot but be grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, for praying in your Lordships' House about these regulations. They bear considerable examination, and the Government deserve considerable criticism for the way they have handled the situation. It seems odd, I must say, to give more than has been asked for after having resisted giving anything at all. It also seems odd that we should be prepared to

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lower our standards in order to allow something into the country that we have not previously thought was up to our standards, rather than try and take our higher standards to other places and attempt to get the rest of the European Community to accept those standards.
There are enormous differences in standards in relation to milk. I was a dairyman—at least, I was employed in the dairy industry one way or another—for about 20 years. I was a retail dairyman, producing and delivering milk to the doorstep for a great part of that time. At one stage I used to offer a bonus to the people who worked in my dairy for the cleanliness of the milk. Your Lordships may not know that milk is not only tested but is very regularly tested. I am not certain of the procedures today because I have ceased my retail dairying enterprise; but in those days, when I was working at it, milk was officially tested every month for bacterial count and for content of foreign bodies, or anything of that sort, and it was also analysed for butterfat and solids-not-fat count. I used to pay a bonus to the people who worked in the dairy which began at 10,000 colonies per millilitre and increased to the point where they were getting top bonus at 2,000 colonies per millilitre or under.
This may not mean a lot to your Lordships but, during this period, I went to America where, we are always led to believe, milk standards are very high. I visited some of the leading dairy farms in New England, looking particularly at some of the Ayrshire cattle there. I asked about standards of milk production in New England. I was told that 100,000 colonies per millilitre was considered quite good. My response was to say that I would sack my staff if that was the sort of milk that they produced, and that I liked people to do under 10,000 colonies and perhaps even down to 2,000. The reaction was astonishment, and prompted the remark. "That is cleaner than water". I replied, "Of course; milk should be cleaner than water, and it could be cleaner than water".
Unfortunately, standards of treating milk over the world are not as high as those I have described. We get over the difficulty of the high contamination rate that obtains in many parts of the world by treating milk in various ways. In this country, we now consider it necessary to pasteurise even the milk that is produced cleaner than water. There are other methods. There is UHT, there is sterilised milk, and so forth. The dirtier the milk, the hotter you have to sterilise it. You can therefore get away with milk that has been contaminated if you heat treat it hot enough. But to my way of thinking this is not milk: it is bacterial soup. It is the kind of thing one may be getting in these UHT packages.
What is it that we really want from the milk industry? It seems to me that we want three things. We want, first, quality. People who buy milk are, I think, most concerned about the quality of the milk that they buy. By quality, they mean content: they mean that it has to have the right quantity of solids, not fat. It has to have the right cream for what it pretends to be. Secondly, they want hygiene. They realise that this is a food, and that it is a valuable food; and that they realise that it is not only a food for human beings and animals but also a food for bacteria. It must therefore
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be handled with all the care that applies to the handling of any form of food. The people of this or of any country, or the Common Market as a whole, demand that milk should be hygienic. This involves not only heat-treating it in order to kill any contamination that may have got into it, but also producing it in a clean fashion. This is very important. If the milk is clean to start with and there is any breakdown in the method of sterilising or pasteurising, the chances of serious damage taking place are obviously less. One wants therefore to be certain that the milk, whatever its source and whatever its provenance, is basically hygienic.
Thirdly, in relation to milk people want service. This is something that we in this country have developed to a very much higher degree than any other country. I feel proud to have been associated with such an industry. I know what effort it takes, but I know that it is a service undertaken by people at all levels with a real sense of responsibility. In another place, the Minister said that he could wax lyrical about doorstep deliveries, but he said absolutely nothing about how he was going to preserve them for us. I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Belstead, will explain how he hopes that we shall avoid Holland's experience, as described by the noble Lord, Lord Monk Bretton, and how we shall avoid the falling off in the effectiveness of our doorstep deliveries and the service that this brings to the people of our country.
What also worries me is how we are going to police this whole operation. We have a set-up in this country where there are people who analyse milk and people who test milk bacteriologically. Their laboratories and the points at which they sample the milk, and the way in which they sample the milk, have been worked out over long years of experience. We know that what is being done to safeguard our milk supplies is being properly done and expertly done, and done regularly and sufficiently often for us to be sure that our supplies are safe and sound. But we do not know, and we have had no assurances that I have been able to discover, how these 17 ports through which this milk will come into the country will be policed or equipped for testing, or how the testing, if testing is to be done, is to be carried out.
In my view we are entitled to some information about this. We are entitled to a great deal more information about how the Government think they can ensure that the quality of milk coming in is as good as it is supposed to be, and how they are certain that it will be the same at each one of the 17 different ports of entry.
The noble Lord, Lord Monk Bretton, also raised the very important question of contaminants. It is most important that the contamination level at which we accept milk is kept as low as possible—as low as we can possibly achieve. The common ailment of the dairy cow is mastitis which is the inflamation of the udder. The common treatment for this inflamation is massive quantities of antibiotics of one sort or another. I do not know how many tubes of penicillin I have squeezed up the teats of dairy cows in my lifetime. But unless it were made quite clear that in no way could I use the milk from the cows that I had treated, and unless my business depended upon throwing that milk away after

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it had been taken from the cows, I would not like to drink the milk which I was producing.
Therefore, we must be certain that the standards of hygiene in the herds from which the milk that is to be imported comes is as high as the standard of hygiene of our own dairy herds. I should like to hear some assurances from the Minister about what checks and tests are to be done in the EEC.
Having said all that, your Lordships may take the view that I am being very anti the importation of milk from the European Common Market. Not at all. All I am saying is that if we import milk from another country, whatever other country it may be, that milk should compete upon level terms as regards quality and hygiene with our own milk produced in this country. I am perfectly prepared—or at least I would be if I were still in the industry, but as a farmer I am perfectly prepared—to compete in level competition with farmers from France, Germany, Italy, Holland or anywhere else so long as it is level competition and it is not competition derived from a lower standard on one side and a higher standard on the other side. It is as regards that matter that I would seek the assurance of the Minister. I hope that when we receive these assurances we shall be able to accept with a little more equanimity the regulations which have been very hastily, suddenly and, I think, somewhat in advisedly, foisted upon us.
7.45 p.m.
Lord Blease: My Lords, I rise to support my noble friend Lord Graham of Edmonton, who so ably and thoroughly presented the issues raised by the regulations. I also, of course, join with other noble Lords in thanking him for tabling the Prayers for their annulment. I have listened with great interest, care and attention to the speeches made by three noble Lords, and I congratulate them on the way in which they displayed their expertise, knowledge and experience of the dairy industry. I am sure that the words they have used in this debate will be read very carefully by the Government in their examination of what will be the next step required to counter the damage already done by the regulations.
I believe I am correct in saying that the five regulations that have been tabled are strictly, in legal terms, applicable only to England and Wales. However, we are already aware of the wider implications of the legislation for the whole of the United Kingdom and I hope, therefore, that I do not unduly transgress the rules of the House, or appear to be discourteous to other noble Lords, if I refer briefly to some of the serious problems which arise for the Northern Ireland milk industry and the agricultural community from the regulations.
At the outset of my remarks I wish to state that the Northern Ireland milk industry is on record as accepting the obligations placed upon the United Kingdom Government by the ruling of the European Court of Justice. At the same time the spokesmen for the industry have stated that they are deeply disturbed by the precise form of the regulations. As I understand it, the Northern Ireland Milk Marketing Board wrote on Tuesday last, 22nd November, to the noble Earl, Lord Mansfield, who is the Northern Ireland Minister of State for Agriculture. Along with other matters
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contained in its letter, the Northern Ireland Milk Marketing Board strongly protested about the requirements of the United Kingdom Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food for veterinary certificates in respect of the movements of UHT products from Northern Ireland to Great Britain. There is now being made, for the first time, a requirement for a part of the United Kingdom to meet certain standards and carry out certain certifications. This has been sprung on the industry, which has been completely put offside by the way in which it has been implemented.
Judging from the statements in the Northern Ireland press, correspondence I have received, and speeches made on 16th November in another place, there is no doubt that these milk regulations—this new legislation and the requirements—are causing deep concern and anger among the Northern Ireland farming community and all sections of the milk industry.
Northern Ireland has taken great pride in the high standards attained and upheld by the milk industry and the necessary relevant animal health provisions to ensure that those high standards are attained and maintained. In that connection I should like to quote from a booklet published by the Northern Ireland Industrial Development Board, which is a Northern Ireland Government-sponsored body interested in promoting industry and employment in Northern Ireland. Indeed, it has put aside a lot of money in order to attract industry to Northern Ireland and to overcome some of the problems of unemployment. The pamphlet has been widely circulated to Members of both Houses. I should like to quote it in particular because standards have been mentioned, and because Ireland has been mentioned in broad terms. Indeed, the noble Lord, Lord Monk Bretton, qualified it, and referred to Southern Ireland and Northern Ireland.
I believe it is right that the standards required and laid down by the Government of the Republic are in parity with, or are equal to, those of Northern Ireland. It is the manner in which they are being scrutinised, administered and monitored that concerns a great many people. However, I shall quote from the pamphlet that has been circulated this week by the Northern Ireland Development Board. It cites a number of matters in connection with the food industries, and it says:
"Alone of any UK region, Ulster is a net food exporter. The output for its farmers last year topped I billion dollars, mainly from dairying and the intensive production of beef, sheep and pigs.
"The regional Chairman of the Confederation of British Industry Dr. George Chambers, has been chief executive of Ulster's Milk Marketing Board for 20 years and is closely involved with some of the numerous current projects to expand food processing industries and create jobs by adding value to the farmers' output".
I quote what Dr. Chambers said:
"In all my time in the food industry here I have never known so much going on and so much further scope not only in my own field, milk, but in other food sectors too".
The article then says:
"Chambers cites such developments as the production, started last month, of a revolutionary new health drink combining milk proteins and fruit juices. One of NI's largest farming co-operatives is making an $8 million investment with its Swedish partner to produce it for sale throughout the British Isles".
The article goes on to talk about the,
"imminent launching of 2 milk-and-whiskey cream liqueurs",
which I am sure noble Lords will be interested in

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seeing, if not tasting, at some stage. The article goes on to say that Dr. Chambers',
"own Milk Marketing Board, owned by its 8,000 suppliers, provides a single point of contact with which an incoming processor can deal for an assured, long-term, year-round supply".
It continues:
"We can back any customer with our own R & D and undertake pilot production for new milk-based products. We have unrestricted access to the EEC and are one of only three regions in Europe about which the US federal authorities raise no questions concerning milk quality, so tightly are hygiene and animal health controlled".
Perhaps I ought to apologise for reading that article at such length, but I thought it was necessary because so much has been said about the area of Ireland in connection with standards. I join with the noble Viscount, Lord Thurso, in saying that Northern Ireland has taken great pride in the high standard in milk production attained there. Indeed, it is seeking to capitalise on milk used in the food processing industry, and we hope that this is one of the areas which will lend itself to great potential in the development of employment.
I feel sure that these matters must raise serious doubts about the implications of the new milk regulations when persons of such high standing, reputation and experience as Dr. Chambers express deep concern and hold such strongly pronounced views about the threat and the danger which the legislation poses for the future of the milk and food industries and for employment in Northern Ireland.
It appears to me that there has been a serious lack of adequate discussion and communication by the Government with the industry about the ramifications and the extent of these regulations. No matter who was responsible for the breakdown, and wherever it may have occurred, it must now rest with the Government to make the necessary adjustments before the milk industry and its potential for employment are not further critically damaged. As regards Northern Ireland, there has been a serious omission—an omission which I believe is serious beyond the issues of the milk industry. It is the omission, or the failure, to consult with the Agriculture Committee of the Northern Ireland Assembly. For a number of reasons I am convinced that this failure should be repaired as urgently as possible.
I join with the noble Lord, Lord Graham, and share with him the pride that at one time I was employed in the Co-operative Movement. I am a life member of the Union of Shop, Distributive and Allied Workers. Therefore, my views coincide with his. I share his views on issues such as the importance of the milk rounds man, and the need for doorstep delivery. One has to live in Northern Ireland to know and appreciate the real value of the roundsman's services and their sterling worth to the community.
I was unable to give notice to the Minister of matters that I should like to raise in this debate. However, I would ask the noble Lord, Lord Belstead, kindly to draw my remarks to the attention of his colleague, the noble Earl, Lord Mansfield, who I know is in direct contact with the Northern Ireland milk industry and the farming community there.
7.55 p.m.
Baroness Lane-Fox: My Lords, the protection of public health is never more plainly to be seen than among patients in orthopaedic and long-stay hospitals. In view of the current mind-boggling expenditure on the National Health Service and the necessarily huge and growing cost of medical science and research, it is obvious that everything possible needs to be done to reduce illness and disease, so that preventive action is of the very first importance.
As someone lucky enough to be a member of the Prince of Wales' Advisory Group on Disability, I know how much prevention concerns us there, and rightly. With the United Kingdom's abundant supply of excellent milk, with its high health standard, how can we now consider accepting supplies of a lower standard from other countries? Here in the United Kingdom we have this splendid source of an agreed basically healthy food, as was so well illustrated by my noble friend Lord Monk Bretton. To belittle this advantage by accepting milk supplies that have not attained the same standard seems to be at least frighteningly irresponsible. Perhaps the noble Lord the Minister when he replies will show us and persuade us that the inspection process on arrival is adequate and that standards will be raised to satisfy my noble friends who have spoken before me. To me long-term health means more in cost saving to the country and the wellbeing of its people than even an EEC difficulty, much as I uphold the Commission.
There is just one other aspect about which I am concerned—the milkman and the doorstep delivery. We all know the music hall joke which has the milkman cast in the role of Casanova—the lonely housewife is more than a friend. Here I hope that the noble Viscount, Lord Thurso, will not take offence. May I assure your Lordships that I am not concerned with such antics, be they real or fantasy; but I know how invaluable is the regular visit of the milkman to the elderly and to the severely disabled. There are the crafty cases who hear him on the doorstep and then drop him messages in a bucket out of the window. There are the elderly who wait anxiously for him to put the kettle under the tap or just to pass the time of day. Still more, there are those he finds in difficulties, capsized on the floor, and those he can report about. Certainly the daily visit of the milkman can be invaluable, whether to rescue and revive or just to deliver.
I am a keen supporter of the competitive system, but as in this case the highest health qualifications will not be likely to be met, I cannot favour imports of milk. Support of the high quality of this country's milk industry, with its doorstep delivery service, is my reason for backing the Prayer of the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, tonight.
7.59 p.m.
Lord Dunleath: My Lords, in rising to support the noble Lord, Lord Graham, I must declare an interest because I am a dairy farmer. I should also say that I rise in a mood of some surprise, and indeed bewilderment, because, as has been pointed out, for something like two years Her Majesty's Government succeeded in resisting imports of UHT milk—it has been called

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"unbelievably horrible tasting milk"—on what was a fairly flimsy argument. I congratulate them on having done so, because I always salute people who can sustain causes on flimsy arguments. At least they were able to put off the evil day.
The funny thing is that, having been successful in so doing, they have now given in against the background of a much stronger argument. I have written in my notes the word "capitulate", but it would be wrong to quote that because they did not capitulate. Her Majesty's Government went further than they were requested to do by allowing frozen, pasteurised cream to be included in the regulations. Where as it would have been difficult for us now to have sustained an argument against UHT milk, there is every strong argument for resisting the importation of frozen, pasteurised cream.
Whereas we would much rather not have importation of UHT milk, what would be far more serious would be the precedent having been set that frozen, pasteurised cream can be admitted, the logical conclusion is that pasteurised whole milk could be admitted, and the pasteurisation process, as I think has been pointed out and as your Lordships will know, only destroys a proportion of the micro-organisms and the process of freezing does nothing but put them into cold storage. Once the product is unfrozen, those same micro-organisms are reactivated once again.
What concerns me particularlyis the danger that admission of frozen, pasteurised cream and possibly ultimately pasteurised whole milk from outside the United Kingdom will pose a threat not only to public health but also to the animal health status. I should perhaps mention that in Northern Ireland this poses a particular threat because of the land frontier that we have with the Republic of Ireland.
The Minister in another place said that there would not be frozen, pasteurised cream admitted from EEC countries where foot and mouth disease was endemic. To the best of my knowledge there are few EEC countries where foot and mouth is not endemic, with the exception of the Republic of Ireland. That would tend to indicate that the preponderance of imports of this product would be from the Republic of Ireland. Health status of animals in the Republic is not as high. Even though they have not got the same foot and mouth problem, in other respects it is not as high as it is in Northern Ireland. There are two standards of hygiene: one for liquid consumption and the other for manufacturing. What I should like to ask is, how can this be properly policed?
It has been stated that there will be three points of access from the Republic to Northern Ireland. One of them was stated to be Armagh. In another place last week, the question was asked how could a point of access be Armagh in view of the fact that Armagh is not on the border? I understood from another source that in fact Middletown was to be the point of access. But, as noble Lords may be aware, Middletown is bang in the middle of the "bandit country" in South Armagh. I should be interested to know how this particular operation could be policed.
It would be indeed a disaster if such a threat were posed to animal hygiene in Northern Ireland, because it has taken not years but decades of hard work,
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meticulous work, and indeed sacrifices on behalf of the farmers and on behalf of the Department of Agriculture in full co-operation with the farmers' union to build up this status of animal health, which is unique not just in the United Kingdom but in the entire European Community.
I would add in passing that insult has been added to injury, in that now the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food has insisted that UHT products from Northern Ireland going out of the Province have to be accompanied by a veterinary certificate, which was never required before. The Milk Marketing Board, which has been making inquiries about this, states that it is totally frustrated by the difficulty in obtaining clarification and interpretation of this requirement. Reference has already been made to the fact that the Agriculture Committee of the Northern Ireland Assembly was not consulted about the regulations which have already come into force, even though the ruling of the European Court was delivered on 8th February and the legislation in Westminster received Royal Assent on 13th May.
I happened to see the noble Earl, Lord Mansfield, in the corridor this morning. When he told me that he was not going to be present, I said that I hoped he would not take exception if I made reference to him this afternoon. He said he would not take exception, provided that I was accurate and kind. I assured him that I always exercise my every endeavour to be accurate, and I was invariably kind. Therefore, in my kindness I should not like to blame him personally for a lengthy letter which was signed by him and dated 1st November, explaining why the Agriculture Committee of the Assembly was not consulted. I can only say that he was given a "bum steer" by whoever it was who drafted that letter for his signature. The worst thing about it was that it stated that the Ulster Farmers' Union, the Milk Marketing Board and the dairy trade had been consulted, and they were content.
I quote from the chairman of the Milk Marketing Board of Northern Ireland. The noble Lord, Lord Blease, has already quoted Dr. Chambers. The chairman of the board stated:
"First of all can I say that we have never been hurt as much as in the way we have been treated in this affair. Yesterday I accompanied Mr. Jim Robinson, who is Chairman of the Dairy Trade Federation in Northern Ireland and my opposite number, and Dr. Stewart to meet the Minister to discuss these matters. When I was leaving I said that in my 30 years' experience of dealing with the political aspects of dairying in Northern Ireland I had never been as much hurt nor had we ever been as badly treated. I feel very strongly about it."
They are hardly the words that would be used by someone who was "content".
Furthermore, there is additional resentment in that, after months of consultation with the Ulster Farmers' Union, the Milk Marketing Board and the dairy trade over the matter of imports of UHT and sterilised milk, suddenly, at the last moment and without consultation, the matter of frozen, pasteurised cream was slipped in, and they had not been asked at all about it before. How could anyone say that these bodies were "content"?
This matter is far more significant, and, with regard to the Agriculture Committee of the Assembly, we have been given a succession of matters to consider. Most of them seem to refer to the regulations regarding control of guard dogs. I do not know why guard dogs

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should be quite so topical at this stage. That is of minor significance compared to the matter of frozen pasteurised cream possibly leading to whole pasteurised milk—a matter which was never put to us at all. My honourable friend and colleague, the Reverend Dr. Ian Paisley, who is chairman of the committee, has, as we would say in Northern Ireland, "given off" about it at some considerable length.
There is some doubt about the exact situation about pasteurisation and foot and mouth disease. As far as I can gather, there is no agreement on the bacteriological content—the count—which is critical in considering whether milk would pass the test. In Northern Ireland a count of 50,000 colonies per millilitre is currently that which is adequate for the quality premium, but, with heat-treated milk, 140C for two seconds is accepted as being adequate for ultra heat treatment. In another place, the honourable Member for Norfolk South, Mr. MacGregor, if I am in order in quoting him, said that 80C for 15 seconds was adequate for pasteurisation to ensure that the foot and mouth disease virus could not survive. Yet, a veterinary officer of the Department of Agriculture states that the foot and mouth virus can survive eight hours' boiling, which means eight hours at 100C. There seems to be some divergence of opinion.
In another place, the right honourable Minister stated that there would be no imports from European Community countries where foot and mouth was endemic, so presumably the Republic of Ireland would be the main source from which such imports would come. Antibiotics were mentioned by one noble Lord. I would quote from the Sunday Independent of 20th November 1983. The heading is "Health risk milk 'could kill babies' ". The most pertinent paragraph reads:
"Dr. Michael Smith, president of the Irish Medical Union, described the situation as getting out of hand. He said that the free availability of antibiotics to farmers is creating a major public health hazard".
If I may display this rather charming exhibit; that is a syringe for supplying antibiotics and injecting them into the udder—
Viscount Long: My Lords, I hesitate to interrupt the noble Lord, but no exhibits are allowed in the House. I am so sorry, my Lord.
Lord Dunleath: My Lords, I thank the noble Viscount for his kind guidance. I was merely drawing attention to the fact that these antibiotics are available to be purchased anywhere. There is a warning on the syringe that milk from any cow which has been so treated must be withdrawn for 72 hours, but there is no way of policing that. That was my point.
The other matter is one that has been mentioned already; that is the door-to-door delivery of milk. The standard United Kingdom retail price for milk is 37 pence per litre, whereas in the Republic of Ireland it is 26·5 pence per litre, meaning a differential of 10·5 pence. Knowing supermarkets and the way in which they can promote loss leaders, this could undermine our retail trade in Northern Ireland altogether. It is not just the fact that there are so many jobs at stake here in door-to-door deliveries, in processing and
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packaging, in haulage, glass manufacture and vehicle manufacture which are promoted by the door-to-door deliveries, but there is also the social effect. Often, particularly with a senior citizen, it is the milkman who is the first to notice that the pint of milk delivered the day before has not been taken in. He wonders what has happened, raises the alert and perhaps, on investigation, it becomes apparent that the old person has suffered a stroke or some other illness.
I wholeheartedly support the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, and I trust that Her Majesty's Government will take note of the very pertinent points that he has made.
8.17 p.m.
Earl De La Warr: My Lords, I must start by declaring an interest as a fairly large dairy farmer. I am extremely grateful, like other noble Lords, to the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, for the Prayers that he has moved and the very explicit way in which he has dealt with the problem. He was good enough to say that he was sorry for the dilemma in which the Minister found himself. I feel somewhat less sorry for the Minister than apparently he does, for reasons that I will produce.
The noble Lord told us how disturbed he was about the anxieties of the 50,000 milk roundsmen, and I know that he will agree with me that those anxieties are shared by the many thousands of people who milk the cows. Indeed, the point is that this is a whole industry. The dairy industry, from the bottom to the top and from the top to the bottom, is as one in condeming the Government in the way they have handled this difficult situation.
I should make one point absolutely clear. This is not in any way to be construed as an attack by me on the Common Market. I am one of those who has always supported it, and I shall continue to do so, though many aspects of the common agricultural policy, as we all know, have to be looked at very carefully.
Furthermore—and I am sure that everyone who has spoken in this debate would agree—the Government had no option but to accept and take urgent action on the judgment of the European Court when it was given. But I must draw your Lordships' attention to what I believe to have been a fatal flaw in one of the main premises upon which that decision was based. I can best explain what I mean by reading Clause 27 of the judgment, which says:
"the very characteristics of UHT milk, which may be kept for long periods at normal temperatures, obviate the need for control over the whole production cycle of such milk if the necessary precautions are taken at the time of the heat treatment".
We all know (do we not?) that if milk is to be really wholesome it has to be treated with great care from the moment it leaves the cow's udder. To that extent, I ask your Lordships to take on board the fact that, although we must accept this judgment, there was something very wrong with the premise upon which it was based; because the court said that UHT treatment can do it all—and we know very well that it cannot. I ask your Lordships to take this on board because at some future stage we may find ourselves before the court again; and it is important that we should know that the court did not cover the whole spectrum of the production, treatment and delivery of milk.

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Before I go on to deal with the extension beyond UHT that the Government chose to allow, I should like to say a few words about the timing of the legislation and the subsequent orders. Your Lordships will remember that the enabling legislation was put through two days before Parliament was dissolved before the general election. In another place, all stages were gone through in 1 hour 40 minutes. Of that, 10 minutes was taken up by the Committee stage. There was no Report stage and no Third Reading. In your Lordships' House, all stages were gone through in exactly 22 minutes. Arising out of this legislation, we have some orders which we are unable to amend. Was this the way to treat an industry like the dairy industry, with 150,000 jobs, to include agriculture, at stake? I suggest it was not.
I want to put it very squarely that my right honourable friend Mr. Peter Walker, at best, made a misjudgment, and, at worst, did something which was very cynical. The Government have not even had the courtesy to let the order sit on the table for 40 days. We are debating this tonight, and the order is already in effect. The other place had to debate it virtually after it had gone into effect. I take the Government very much to task on the way they have dealt with this—and, for the life of me, I do not know why they did it.
I want now to try to get from the Government some reasons that seem more valid than those we have had so far as to why they chose to extend these orders beyond UHT. We had in another place from my honourable friend Mrs. Fenner—and the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, referred to this—some very specific statements that all this was only to do with UHT; and, as the noble Lord said, in order to make her point she said that, of course, it was only 1 per cent. of the whole. Now we have the order extended to sterilised milk, which is 6 per cent., in some parts of the country 25 per cent., and to pasteurised cream, which we all know is capable of being the thin end of a very thick wedge indeed.
I hope my noble friend will take this on board. The whole of the dairy industry has condemned the Minister. They believe that they have been let down by the Government with a thump. It is very unhealthy for the dairy industry and, indeed, for the food industry as a whole to have a Minister of whom it has to be said, "Know thine enemy!". I think there is another danger, too. It appears as though the Minister took this decision to extend for reasons which were wholly legalistic. It appears that he was advised that there was a danger that, unless he went further than the court required him to go, he might find himself up before them again. But the European Court is not a criminal court. It is a civil court which is there to adjudicate on the disagreements which are bound to happen between member countries who are signatories to a treaty.
For the life of me I cannot understand why, and with such unseemly haste, he took this strange decision, which is a very dangerous decision—and I should like to explain to your Lordships why I think it is dangerous and can go well beyond the affairs of the dairy industry. If other countries think that we are going to run scared because there is a danger that, if we do not do something, we might be "up before the beak" in Brussels, or wherever the court sits, they are
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likely in this harsh world in which we live to take advantage of it. Therefore, I put it to your Lordships that the impression that has been created that the Minister is more frightened of the court than he is thoughtful about the welfare of a great industry in this country is a disaster, and one which must be put right.
I had intended to make some points about inspection, but they have been so well made that I will not press them. I will merely join other noble Lords in saying that we hope the Minister will change his mind, will alter the order and will alter the decision that there should be 17 points of entry—which he can perfectly easily do if he is prepared to. This is yet another thing which we demand from him.
Finally, I should like to draw your Lordships' attention to a speech that the Minister made on 26th October to the Milk Marketing Board. He said:
"Although we must comply with the law we can also avail ourselves of certain helpful aspects of the judgment … We have, of course, invoked these references in the course of the intense discussions which have taken place with the Commission and member states".
Could my noble friend tell me what the Minister was talking about when he referred to "certain helpful aspects of the judgment"? And, when he has told us that, could he tell us in what way we have invoked these helpful aspects? I think we should all be very pleased to know.
I have made what your Lordships may feel—and what I fear my noble friend may feel—is a very strong speech about the actions of the Minister. I hope for his sake, and for the sake of the great industry that we are discussing tonight, that he will do his level best to answer the questions that have been asked, and, indeed, the attacks that have been made, tonight.
8.30 p.m.
Baroness Elliot of Harwood: My Lords, I have listened to every speech that has been made this evening and I have agreed with every one. I agree exactly with what the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, said and I agree with all that has been said by everybody else who has spoken. That means to say that I shall speak only very shortly because I was going to say a lot of things that have been said by others. In saying that I support them, I hope that the House will realise that I feel tremendously strongly. One thing that I mind very much is that these five orders have been brought out on the 50th anniversary of the start of the Milk Marketing Board. The start of the Milk Marketing Board in 1933 was the work of my husband, who was the Minister of Agriculture of the day, and who had a tremendously hard task in getting the dairy industry to co-operate, in getting the farmers to come together, and in co-ordinating the different farming methods that were used in those days. It took a long time but it has been successful. It has been far more successful than ever we dreamt it would be in 1933. It has been one of the great successful agricultural efforts which this country has made, and I think it is nothing short of tragic that suggestions of this kind should come out now when in fact the board is very powerful and very important and all the other dairy industries that have been mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Graham, are co-operating.

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I realise of course that the Government are in a very difficult position, because we are members of the common agricultural policy and I support that; but there are ways in which people deal with the common agricultural policy which seem to me sometimes rather strange. I will give one example which I happen to know about because, as your Lordships know, I am a sheep farmer and a cattle farmer. I have to sell in the summer and the autumn what is now called "sheep meat" but which I call lamb in the market. Now what happens? The French are the biggest importers of mutton and lamb and if their market is open then all the auction markets that are selling mutton and lamb get high prices, the mutton and the lamb are wanted and the export is of course, like any other export in the EEC, a free market. If the French decide that for the next month or six weeks, or whatever time you like, they have enough mutton, they shut down the door: down it goes. We are trying to sell—I am talking about Scotland in this case—our mutton, and bang goes down the price. So we hold everything back until, we hope, the French are going to allow the market to open again. How do they get away with that? They must get away with it because they do it.
Yet we are being held up, I understand, before the civil court because we do not want to import milk. We have the best dairy industry—I should like to say it is the best in Europe—and we have all the milk we want, so that therefore we do not want to import. However, we are now being told that we must import; so we have agreed to import the UHT milk which noble Lords have been talking about today. Why should we be asked to import more of the UHT? I agree with the noble Earl, Lord De La Warr, in what he said just now. All right: we have to import UHT milk but we have not got to import this frozen cream and the sterilised milk. I take it that has been a gesture made to please the civil court or the EEC, whatever it may be. I am all for being on good terms with the CAP, but I do not see why we should do something to please them which may do a lot of harm to us. This is something which I am afraid the Minister will have to explain to us because, so far as I know, it is not going to help at all.
I agree with all that has been said about the standard of milk that we have in this country. It is absolutely marvellous. I look back over those 50 years that I have known the Milk Marketing Board and remember, for instance, the amount of tuberculosis which was formerly unfortunately in existence arising from non-pasteurised milk and non-tuberculin-tested milk. Tested milk was made compulsory only after the Milk Marketing Board started and it saved thousands of lives. There are many other things which your Lordships will know as well as I do, but I remember it so vividly because we raised the standard in a way it is almost impossible to realise now, because we are so used to these things being so well organised.
The Milk Marketing Board is a marvellous organisation in the way it carries out all the necessary work throughout the whole of the United Kingdom, including Northern Ireland. Its standards are tremendous and have been built up over the years. It is something in which I would say we could lead the European Community in this particular industry, probably better than in anything else. Yet we are being
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criticized for certain things and being asked to do things which we really do not want to do. As noble Lords have rightly said, we have not really had any very good reasons given to us.
I did not listen to the debate in the other place but I have read the Mansards—I have them here—and I was not at all impressed by what the Government had to say. I do not like saying that because I am a strong supporter of the Government and I am also a strong supporter of the noble Lord, Lord Belstead, whom I admire enormously for all he does in this Government. But I do think that at the moment this particular subject is being treated—how shall I put it?—very cursorily by the Government. I personally do not see why we should sign on the dotted line before we have had some opportunity of discussing the details and discussing what alternatives might be open to us. Yet, as noble Lords opposite have said, this is a subject which has never really been discussed in the same way as we discuss other things connected with agriculture. In consequence, we all feel very unhappy about it. I certainly do. Anything that makes it more difficult to sell milk, or reduces the amount of milk that is being consumed, surely is the last thing the EEC want to do. They talk about wine lakes and milk lakes, among other things, but they are increasing them if they do not back up the doorstep selling arrangement.
I remember how the doorstep selling arrangement started. That represented a revolution and it has done more good, certainly in rural areas, than almost anything that could have happened. I agree with everything that has been said by all your Lordships about doorstep selling. I should like to pay tribute to the Co-operative who, in our area at any rate, are the people who deliver the milk. They deliver it regularly in my particular area, which is very rural. It comes twice a week; it is always there, and always the best quality: whether it is snowing or raining or whatever it may be, the chap turns up in his lorry with the milk. That, I think, is enormously valuable.
Other noble Lords have spoken about what this does for old people. But it also does a great deal for families who live in very isolated areas, where their milk has to be delivered on their doorsteps. If they had to motor 10 miles into town twice a week in order to get the milk, think what the expense would be. It would also be very detrimental to the consumption of milk, because they would not drink so much.
Today one is always encouraging families and children to drink milk. One of the things that I regretted very much was when the milk in schools was not exactly done away with, but was so much reduced that the scheme was hardly in existence. That scheme was a marvellous way of selling milk and it was extremely good for growing children. That has almost gone now, but I believe that in some areas there is still milk for small children. We do not want to reduce the capacity for selling milk, which is in enormous supply. To reduce sales is all against the principles of the CAP and the EEC. The Minister will need to explain why he thinks they want to do this, when everybody knows that it will cut the amount of milk which is being sold.
I shall not say anything more, because everything has been said, but I feel deeply about this matter. To do this now, after we have built up this marvellous organisation for milk, and a wonderful dairy industry

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where complaints are practically non-existent, and for the EEC to produce something which ends up with these regulations, is something that I cannot understand. If they want milk to be consumed, and if they want to reduce the surpluses, this is not the way to do it. I bitterly regret that we have to agree, because, I understand, we cannot do anything else. But I beg the Minister, as everybody else has done, to see whether or not, even at this late hour, some changes could be made in order to make these regulations less harmful, because this change is a thousand pities and, in the 50th anniverary year of the Milk Marketing Board, it is absolutely tragic.
8.42 p.m.
Baroness Fisher of Rednal: My Lords, I intervene in the gap in the list and I shall not keep the House too long. First, I should like to say that, having listened to all the noble Lords and noble Ladies who have spoken tonight, it seems to me that the Minister ought to have had an opportunity to speak to them, because the expertise that has come from the mouths of those noble Lords and noble Ladies is quite outstanding. I feel sure that if they had been consulted we would not have been faced with the fait accompli that we have tonight.
Noble Lords have given us details of how safe supplies reach our doorsteps. We have heard from the industry and from the farmers about the high standards they set themselves. Because that aspect has been adequately covered, I want to take up what my noble friend Lord Graham has said. I think that we all admire the way in which he began the comprehensive discussion which we have had. He mentioned the economics of doorstep delivery, which are very finely balanced, and we have to see that that balance is not tipped up so that doorstep deliveries completely disappear. I think that it was the noble Lord, Lord Monk Bretton, who gave us details of what has happened in Holland.
The noble Baroness, Lady Elliot, emphasised how medical opinion in this country encourages the expectant mother to make sure that she drinks her pinta, and how the mother with young children is exhorted to make sure that they get their fair ration of milk every day. Noble Lords have also spoken about the service to the elderly. The drinking of milk is important for them, because milk is something which they digest very easily. The doorstep service to these people is absolutely paramount.
Then there are thousands, and even millions, of young people in this country who do not have cars. If the doorstep delivery of milk is stopped, it will mean treks to supermarkets three, four, or five miles away, in order to fill up a pram with milk. That will be a daily chore for many of them, because young families are consuming four or five bottles daily in their homes.
These are services for which this country must take great credit. As the noble Baroness, Lady Elliot, said, they took a long time to build up and they have proved very successful. As your Lordships will remember, last year we had a lot of snow and bad weather. Pictures on television showed the milkman constantly getting through the snow and getting onto the doorstep in all parts of the country. In some isolated areas the milkman found that the people were completely cut
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off and he signalled for the helicopter to come in with food for those places. We must not let the doorstep delivery go by default.
As noble Lords have said, we are faced with a fait accompli and there is little that we can do at this stage. Criticisms have been levelled against the Government and, no doubt, they will take note of them, so that we may not have to say, "We told you so" when people write in and say that their deliveries have stopped. I would make a final plea—and I wish that this place was full of housewives—that the message should go out that the housewife has a choice. She must recognise that she can choose the service and the convenience of doorstep delivery of high standard, safe and fresh milk. We do not want that replaced with, as some noble Lords have described it, bacterial soup with an utterly horrible taste.
8.48 p.m.
Baroness David: My Lords, I must first apologise for the absence tonight of my noble friend Lord John-Mackie. He had accepted the estimate of time for the Somerset House debate and the Shipping Industry debate and expected that this debate would be over by eight o'clock. He had a commitment at that time which he could not avoid, so I am taking his place.
There can be no doubt, when every speaker from the Conservative Benches, the Cross-Benches, the Liberal Benches and the Labour Benches has spoken in support of the Prayer to annul the regulations by my noble friend Lord Graham, that the feeling is extremely strong in this House and the Minister must be feeling rather lonely at this moment. There cannot be any doubt about the strong feeling that there is over the effect of a surge of sales of UHT milk in supermarkets on doorstep deliveries in this country. But if the price is put as low as has been suggested, then the Government must look closely to see that the antidumping law is not being broken. Secondly, they must see that the production of milk in other countries is subject to the same stringent regulations as our farmers have to obey. We are subject to EEC regulations and as loyal members of the Community we must conform, but it is the Government's duty to ensure that excessive harm is not done to a major service in this country.
I should like to repeat a few of the questions which have already been asked. Why should we exceed the remit from the EEC court? Have the Government fully realised the impact of the regulations upon employment in the dairy industry—the milkmen who make doorstep deliveries—and employment among others involved in the trade? Moreover, if doorstep deliveries do not continue, one has to consider the effect, as many other speakers have said, on the old, the disabled and young mothers with small children—and, particularly where the old are concerned, as the noble Baroness, Lady Lane-Fox, made clear, the social effects. This says nothing about the taste of the stuff.
I ask, as have other noble Lords, whether there will be adequate inspection. Will the health aspects be safeguarded? How are they to be safeguarded if there are to be 17 designated ports of entry? Do there have to be so many? The very strong feeling in all parts of the House will, I hope, encourage the Minister to make changes and provide safeguards for the two trades

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which will be so heavily involved if the worst fears of those who have spoken in our debate tonight are realised.
8.52 p.m.
Lord Belstead: My Lords, in debating these regulations, I must first meet the concern which has been expressed, first by the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, and then by all of your Lordships who have taken part in the debate about the scope of the regulations. In February, the European Court of Justice decided that to prevent imports of UHT milk into the United Kingdom—for that, in essence, was the situation—was inconsistent with Articles 30 and 36 of the Treaty of Rome. But the difficulty is that those two articles are of general application. Therefore, in order to comply with Community law—and it is very much in our trading interests to do so—we must also admit other milk products that have received as rigorous a heat treatment as UHT milk. I am sure that my noble friend Lord De La Warr has read the judgment with care, but I would ask him to read it again. I think he will see that he was mistaken in his criticism of my right honourable friend. It does no service to our country not to comply with the effect of a court judgment. By taking the action he is taking in putting these regulations before both Houses of Parliament, my right honourable friend is acting in the interests of this country.
I ought to say also that in bringing forward these regulations we are not contradicting what the Government said six months ago both in another place and in your Lordships' House on the occasion of the Importation of Milk Act. Statements made on that occasion by my honourable friend the Parliamentary Secretary and my right honourable friend Lord Ferrers in this House certainly tended to concentrate on UHT milk. I do not disguise that. But both my honourable friend and my right honourable friend also referred more generally to compliance with the judgment. It is because of the need to comply with the judgment that we shall admit sterilised milk.
Next I must try to satisfy my noble friend Lady Lane-Fox that the standards of imports are not going to be less than for our own products. Indeed, I must try to prove to my noble friend that the standards demanded are, where necessary, going to be, if anything, higher. For instance, sterilised milk is subject to a wide band of heat treatment, as I am sure your Lordships know better than I do. Under the regulations, we are only going to admit sterilised milk which will have received more rigorous treatment than the treatment for our own UHT milk. Moreover, for both UHT cream and milk-based drinks we are going to impose a higher minimum heat treatment than for UHT milk, which can very reasonably be said to be necessary because cream is thicker in substance and milk drinks have other substances added to them.
The noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, in a strong but very fair speech, said that the problems were not all of the Government's own making. The noble Lord will forgive me if I say, "You can say that again!" I must point out that we have been placed in a difficult position by the Labour Government's decision, taken without any requirement by a court decision in 1977,
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to admit into this country a catalogue of UHT cream, sterilised cream other than in cans and pasteurised cream. We are now taking the opportunity to prevent under these regulations any more pasteurised cream from entering this country. From now on, it will have to be frozen for, despite the information given to my noble friend Lord Monk Bretton, freezing, I am advised, prevents the growth of any contaminating pathogenic bacteria, which thus renders the product acceptable from a public health point of view.
All your Lordships, and finally the noble Baroness, Lady David, asked about the public health safeguards. I believe that these are going to be very effective for imports. Schedule 2 of the regulations establishes a comprehensive procedure to ensure that imports are properly certified. The certificate was published in the London Gazette last week and it is a very thorough check, running to 20 paragraphs, on the quality of the milk before it is treated, on the heat treatment process and then on the finished product. In effect, there will be a dual system of rigorous sampling and testing by port health authorities and by the Ministry of Agriculture laboratories. My noble friend Lord Monk Bretton suggested that pesticides, aflotoxin and antibiotics are a cause for concern. We certainly agree. We shall be testing accordingly. The regulations provide for spot checks. I would ask my noble friend to look, maybe afterwards, at the importation regulations, Schedule 2, paragraphs 3 and 7, to check that what I have said about spot checks is the case.
Both the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, and the noble Viscount, Lord Thurso, adjured the Government to ensure that standards on farms in other countries are lifted—the word which, I think, the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, used. We cannot control this directly but we can test the finished product. One such test enables us to assess the quality of the raw milk before heat treatment. If this test suggests that French practice is not up to scratch—I give the French practice as one obvious example—we shall certainly take steps to remedy the situation.
In addition to what I have said in answer to your Lordships about safeguards at the ports, may I say that our staff are going to make visits to farms and dairies in other Community member states to check their arrangements for ensuring the healthy production of milk. The other point which I ought to make in this connection is that the noble Lord, Lord Dunleath, complained that the policing of imports would be difficult in certain parts of Northern Ireland because of the conditions to be found in Northern Ireland today: that is a matter to which I must draw the attention of my noble friend Lord Mansfield.
In the interests of public health, the regulations also specify the heat treatments to which imported milk must be subject; and I now go on to milk itself, having spoken earlier about cream and milk-based drinks. I realise that doubts have been expressed about the time/temperature requirement laid down for UHT milk. As my right honourable friend the Minister of Agriculture has said in another place, we believe that our requirement of 132.2C for one second is appropriate, not least because it has applied in Great Britain since 1965. In answer to my noble friend Lord Monk Bretton, we are ready to have further

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discussions on this matter and to consider possible amendment to this particular aspect of the regulations.
I will turn for a moment to the subject of animal health. Considerable reference has been made on either side of your Lordships' House to foot and mouth disease being endemic in other member states. Indeed, it was a matter to which the noble Lord, Lord Dunleath, referred in his speech. With respect, that is not the case. The bulk of the outbreaks which have occurred since 1981 are attributable to two foci of infection. The first caused most of the outbreaks in France, in the Brittany area and, incidentally, resulted, as your Lordships will remember, in our first outbreak for more than a decade. The second was the group of outbreaks which occurred over a short period in Denmark. Otherwise, it is true that there have been isolated outbreaks in Greece, Italy and Germany. But in all these instances we have been able to rely on the import procedures allowed under the rules governing inter-Community trade in order to safeguard the position of our country.
The cornerstone of those rules is the veterinary certification which has to be supplied by exporting countries. As 'we have made clear on a number of occasions, those arrangements have stood the test of time and have proved themselves to be effective.
So far as milk, cream, and milk-based drinks are concerned, the animal health certificate—which is an additional certificate that has to be presented—accompanying each consignment must provide assurance that imports have been subject to specified heat treatments for animal health. Those time/temperature combinations have been adopted in the light of the best professional advice obtainable from the Animal Virus Research Institute at Pirbright, and have been endorsed by the State Veterinary Service. In those circumstances, the Government are fully satisfied that all reasonable conditions to safeguard our animal health status are being applied, as in the past.
Before I finish, I should like to answer some of the questions which your Lordships have asked me. My noble friend Lord De La Warr referred to a speech which was made at the 50th anniversary dinner of the Milk Marketing Board by my right honourable friend. If I may say so—and I am not in any way trying to curry favour with your Lordships by mentioning this—it was an occasion at which my noble friend Lady Elliot of Harwood made one of the best short speeches that all who were present had probably ever heard.
My noble friend Lord De La Warr said that my right honourable friend referred in his speech at that dinner to certain hopeful aspects of the court judgment; and my noble friend asked what those were. The judgment said that we could not exclude milk from other member states. But on the other hand, the judgment acknowledged that we could operate a vigorous import regime including official certification, sampling and testing. Our import regime, to which I have already referred, takes advantage of those observations and is to be much more vigorous than that which applies in other sectors of imports.
The noble Lord, Lord Dunleath, made a point about Northern Ireland; that arrangements are being
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made for requiring certificates for trade coming across from Northern Ireland to Great Britain. There are two points I should like to make to both him and to the noble Lord, Lord Blease, on this matter. First, we have made special arrangements to deal with consignments which are in the pipeline. Secondly—and I was a little surprised that neither noble Lord mentioned this—we are for the first time making provision for the import of UHT and sterilised milk from Northern Ireland to Great Britain. It has not happened before; there has been no opportunity. It is something that ought to be recognised this evening.
Having said that, the noble Lords, Lord Dunleath and Lord Blease, made important points about consultation. Detailed consultation on the proposals for the regulations did take place with interested organisations in Northern Ireland. However, it was the case that Ministers had to make a last minute decision in relation to the provision of imports of frozen pasteurised cream in the Northern Ireland regulations. I regret that it was not possible to consult the industry on that matter in the time available. With regard to consultation with the Northern Ireland Assemby, as I believe the noble Lord, Lord Dunleath, will know, my noble friend the Minister responsible for Northern Ireland, Lord Mansfield, wrote to the Assembly's Agriculture Committee and advised them of the decision as soon as possible thereafter.
Finally, several noble Lords—including the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, at the beginning and the noble Baroness, Lady David, at the end and also my noble friend Lord DeLa Warr—asked about the number of ports and why there are 17 of them. They have, of course, been restricted to those ports which are already dealing with the meat trade. They have the necessary facilities and the trained personnel experienced in handling foodstuffs which are sensitive from a health viewpoint. Again, I believe that the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, asked whether the ports are to have the right resources to enable them to do the job. The answer is, yes.
Those people are accustomed to working closely with the Ministry in operating the necessary health controls. A shorter list could have overloaded the facilities at some of the ports. A longer list—or no list at all—could have resulted in a considerable variation in the standards of enforcement. In either case, it would not provide the necessary degree of assurance that an acceptable standard of public health control could be operated.
I suggest to the House that our interests as a great trading nation require that we expect other member states to comply with international judgments—and so must we. Although the noble Lord, Lord Graham of Edmonton, referred to the alacrity with which we came to this decision, it is nine months since the court's decision. But in doing that, I assure my noble friend Lady Elliot, the Government will always remember and will not let others forget the benefits of fresh pasteurised milk produced in this country and delivered on the doorstep. It is a wonderful service for a splendid product which neither UHT milk nor sterilised milk can begin to rival.
I acknowledge what my noble friend Lady Lane-Fox said, that in some cases it can be akin to a social service. If people today wish to buy a greater propor

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tion of their milk in the shops, then this is a question of consumer choice which people must be free to exercise, but I firmly believe that we are right to remind people constantly of the unique advantages of doorstep deliveries for the family, and the great importance of it to producers, to the Milk Marketing Board, of course, and to those who work in the dairy industry.
These regulations ensure that public health interests are fully protected and are in accordance with the judgment of the court, and that imported milk meets health and hygiene requirements at least up to our own production. I believe this is right for British interests and I have no hesitation in asking your Lordships to support the regulations.
9.10 p.m.
Lord Graham of Edmonton: My Lords, with the leave of the House, I am very grateful indeed, first of all, to the Minister for the care that he has taken and the courtesy which he has shown to the House. Perhaps, having listened to the case opened and closed in another place, and trying to hear most of it, the great difference is that at least the noble Lord has had the opportunity in this House of making the case as he wanted to, and it has been listened to, I certainly think, with great attention.
I have rarely been in a debate involving political parties from all sides of a Chamber where there has been such unanimity as to the arguments that they wish to deploy against another force; clearly not against the arguments advanced by the Minister because, to be perfectly fair, there have been one or two shafts of light—certainly the assurances in respect of the care the Government will take to ensure that the milk that comes into this country will be of the highest possible standard.
But a very comprehensive demolition job has been done on the Government's actions in these matters over the past few months by noble Lords all around the House. It would be invidious to single out any particular contribution, except to say that the contributions we have heard from all three noble Baronesses have impressed me very much, because they come from a background of real experience in these matters. Professional experience has come from other quarters. I was enormously impressed by the contribution of the noble Baroness, Lady Elliot of Harwood, not least with the greatest deference possible to the contribution that her late husband made to the whole concept of giving to the people of this country milk which they could rely on and find completely safe.
The great dilemma that I had in listening to the Minister was this. He saved himself literally in the last few seconds of his speech. Until then there had not been one word of what we consider important—not so much the past actions, or the present intentions, but on the future consequences concerning the effect on the doorstep delivery. If I may paraphrase what the Minister has said, he believes it is a first-class service and one that ought to be preserved. But if the French farmers are successful and comply with the requirements, the Minister says that up to 6 per cent. more sterilised milk can come in. The Minister might say: it
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has been a very great operation and we are sorry the patient has died. If the patient, the milk distributive industry, suffers as a consequence of this, how on earth are we going to face up to it?
I would simply say to the Minister that we believe hat he is relying upon the milk industry to get him out of a Catch-22 situation. If the milk industry, fearful of the consequences, does its job, as the Minister believes, it will be competitive, it will be able to survive, it will be able to keep out the foreign imports, and then the industry itself will have given the game away. The industry believes at the moment that this additional burden is going to cause all the consequences. The only way they can prove that the Minister is right is by proving themselves wrong.
I listened very carefully to what the Minister said. He believes that the industry will be able to compete in the new circumstances. The industry does not; the Milk Marketing Board does not; Age Concern does not; all of the other organisations do not believe that they will be able to compete in the new circumstances. If they are wrong, all they will have are red faces. If they are proved right and the industry is damaged—if not beyond repair savagely damaged—the consumers of this country will find that they will have to travel further, pay more, or get poorer milk.
I realise the reality of the parliamentary arithmetic in these matters and I appreciate the convention that in another place a decision has been reached. For our part on these Benches we remain wholly unconvinced that the actions which the Government have taken in the past few months were necessary. We believe that they may have been taken sincerely, but that they will nevertheless prove to be enormously damaging to British interests and we do not intend to let this matter pass lightly.
On Question, Motion disagreed to.
House adjourned at a quarter-past nine o'clock.

  DOGS (NORTHERN IRELAND) ORDER 1983
  DOGS (NORTHERN IRELAND) ORDER 1983
  YOUTH TRAINING: CIVIL SERVICE
  YOUTH TRAINING: CIVIL SERVICE
  ELECTRICITY INTERCONNECTOR, WEXFORD—SOUTH WALES: FEASIBILITY
  ELECTRICITY INTERCONNECTOR, WEXFORD—SOUTH WALES: FEASIBILITY
  BOOKS: IMPORTATION FROM ARGENTINA
  BOOKS: IMPORTATION FROM ARGENTINA