Sitting of 12 November 1974

Preamble
The House met at half-past Two o clock
PRAYERS
[Mr. SPEAKER in the Chair]
PRAYERS
  MESSAGE FROM THE QUEEN

    QUEEN'S SPEECH (ANSWER TO ADDRESS)
    The VICE-CHAMBERLAIN OF THE HOUSEHOLD reported Her Majesty's Answer to the Address, as follows:
    I have received with great satisfaction the loyal and dutiful expression of your thanks for the Speech with which I opened the present Session of Parliament.

  PRIVATE BUSINESS
    ROSS AND CROMARTY COUNTY COUNCIL BILL
    Read a Second time and committed.
ORAL ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
  SOCIAL SERVICES

    Supplementary Benefit (Fraudulent Claims)
    Mr. Percivalasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what evidence she has that there are an increasing number of fraudulent claims being made for supplementary benefit; and if she will consider how the measures taken to prevent abuse can be made more effective.
    The Minister of State, Department of Health and Social Security (Mr. Brian O'Malley): None, Sir. We have figures of the number of fraudulent claims detected, and in both 1972 and 1973 the figure ran at about 14,500. The present indications are that about 5 per cent. more supplementary benefit fraud will be discovered during 1974 but this may reflect increased effectiveness on the part
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    of my investigating staff rather than an increase in the amount of fraud.
    I attach great importance to the prevention of fraud and abuse. The whole subject was, of course, reviewed by Sir Henry Fisher's committee as recently as 1973, but if the hon. and learned Member has any specific and practical suggestions to make I shall be pleased to consider them.
    Mr. Percival: I am obliged to the hon. Gentleman for that answer. I am glad to have his assurance that he appreciates the seriousness of the point in terms which I fully accept. I think he will agree that the difficulty is in getting evidence. Does he not agree that the conduct of those who claim these benefits when earning a living elsewhere so outrages the feelings of those who work hard and end up worse off than if they had cheated, thus reflecting on the genuine cases about which we are all concerned, and is so despicable in itself that no one who has any evidence which could bring such a person to justice should ever hesitate to come forward and give it? Will the hon. Gentleman do all in his power to encourage people to do so?
    Mr. O'Malley: I assure the hon. and learned Gentleman that the Department, within its available resources of manpower, already acts and will continue to act as effectively as it can to prevent any abuse and fraud which hon. Gentlemen on both sides of the House would strongly deprecate.
    Mr. Jasper More: Will the Minister recognise that nothing gives greater offence to the decent, hard-working section of our community than these abuses? Is he able to tell the House the situation with regard to personnel in his Department, and in particular whether during the present year there has been any increase in the investigating staff to deal with these fraudulent cases?
    Mr. O'Malley: The number of staff dealing with this kind of potential fraud and abuse has been increased quite substantially in recent years. Within the constraints which I mentioned, we shall do everything we can to minimise any fraud and abuse of the existing social security system.
    Mr. Arthur Latham: Does my hon. Friend recollect that on many occasions I

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    have written to him and to my right hon. Friend concerning beneficiaries who are not getting their full entitlement? Does he agree that the first moral and compassionate priority is to ensure that personnel efforts are used to ensure that those who are not getting a proper entitlement have their cases remedied before dealing with the kind of abuses that are exaggerated by the hon. and learned Member for Southport (Mr. Percival)?
    Mr. O'Malley: I agree with my hon. Friend that over the years—I do not make that comment specifically about any questions which have been asked from the Opposition benches this afternoon—Conservative Members generally have exaggerated the amount of abuse of the system. That was confirmed by the Fisher Committee, which was set up by the then Conservative Government. I agree further with my hon. Friend that all the available resources and efforts of the Department must be employed to ensure that claimants receive their full entitlement to every benefit, including discretionary benefits, which would help them.

    Industrial Deaths (Certification of Cause)
    Mr. Goldingasked the Secretary of State for Social Services whether she will take steps to improve the procedures followed in cases where local insurance officers contest a coroner's decision that death has arisen from industrial causes.
    Mr. O'Malley: I will consider any views of my hon. Friend on this subject.
    Mr. Golding: Will the Minister be prepared to listen to representatives of the North Staffordshire miners who have drawn my attention to the amount of distress caused to widows whose hopes have been raised by coroners' verdicts and then dashed by the advice of pneumoconiosis panels?
    Mr. O'Malley: I should tell my hon. Friend that, although no figures are available, the impression of my advisers is that disagreements between the pneumoconiosis panels and the coroners are not common. However, I am prepared to consider any representations by my hon. Friend on what is a very difficult subject and, of course, I should be pleased to meet
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    a delegation on the lines suggested by my hon. Friend.
    Mr. Mark Hughes: Does my hon. Friend accept that this whole problem of the relationship between the pneumoconiotic's widow, the coroners and the panel causes great offence in many mining areas where the widow's expectations are greatly raised? In support of my hon. Friend who raised this matter, I agree that it is a widespread and deeply hurtful procedure.
    Mr. O'Malley: I know that there are strong views on this subject, particularly in the coalfields. I should tell my hon. Friend, however, that in many areas coroners postpone their conclusions on the cause of death until the advice of the pneumoconiosis panels is available. This practice was approved by the Brodrick Committee on Death Certification and Coroners, which was in favour of the extension of that practice. I think that may be helpful.

    Radio-Opaque Swabs
    Mr. Michael Morrisasked the Secretary of State for Social Services if she will make a statement on the reasons for the inadequacy of the supplies of radio-opaque swabs to Northampton General Hospital.
    The Minister of State, Department of Health and Social Security (Dr. David Owen): There was a temporary shortage of X-ray detectable swabs in hospitals in the Northampton district, and as a result operations were limited to emergencies only from 21st October. Supplies have now been assured and normal operating conditions prevail.
    Mr. Morris: I am grateful to the Minister for that answer but I wonder whether the Government realise the pressure under which Northampton works. It is an expanding town—I am working under enormous pressure—and we really cannot tolerate a situation in which, once again, Northampton is landed with inadequate resources. I seek an assurance from the Minister—
    Mr. Speaker: Order. The hon. Member has been called to ask a supplementary question. He has made two statements already. He must put a question.
    Mr. Morris: Can the Minister give an assurance that, in future, supplies will be assured to Northampton General Hospital?
    Dr. Owen: We are looking into the question of a central stockpile which might help in emergencies like this.

    Invalid Vehicles
    Mr. Farrasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what plans she has to withdraw from use the three-wheeled invalid vehicle and replace it with a four-wheeled car.
    Mr. Molloyasked the Secretary of State for Social Services when she expects to be able to replace three-wheeled invalid vehicles by four-wheeled vehicles.
    The Under-Secretary of State for Health and Social Security (Mr. Alfred Morris): Our decision, following wide-ranging consultations on Lady Sharp's report, was to opt for cash and not cars. Our priority in the field of mobility for severely disabled people is the new mobility allowance. It will help such people who, because they cannot drive, do not benefit at all from the vehicle scheme. For those who prefer to obtain a car of their own choice, the new mobility allowance will give additional financial help.
    Mr. Farr: Apart from the fact that the three-wheeled vehicle is not very safe, can the hon. Gentleman say what account he is taking of the kind of special circumstance about which I wrote to him the other day—namely, that a newly-married disabled person owning a Department three-wheeler will never be able to take his wife out?
    Mr. Morris: I am conscious of the kind of problem raised by the hon. Gentleman. On the matter of safety, we have published the report of the Motor Industry Research Association. I am giving careful personal attention to every possibility of improving the vehicles that we supply. On the case referred to by the hon. Gentleman, I shall, of course, be in touch with him and be as helpful as I can.
    Mr. Molloy: I acknowledge with sincere gratitude the fact that my hon. Friend has more than doubled the financial allocation to the disabled who cannot use a motor car or any form of
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    vehicle, but will he nevertheless bear in mind that there is a strong feeling that the four-wheeled vehicle should be introduced as soon as possible? When he does that, will he also consider those—there are many thousands of them in the Disabled Drivers' Association—who still prefer the three-wheeled vehicle? There is no reason why the disabled should not, if possible, have what they believe to be the vehicle best suited to their particular requirements.
    Mr. Morris: I am grateful to my hon. Friend, who is a national vice-president of the Disabled Drivers' Association and is much respected by disabled drivers everywhere. I strongly endorse what he has said about giving disabled people freedom of choice. It was this that informed our decision, and I assure my hon. Friend that I shall do everything possible further to improve the vehicle service for disabled people.
    Mr. Marten: As long as the disabled must have three-wheelers, could they not have a three-wheeler capable of carrying a passenger? Such vehicles are on the market. Will the Minister consider this?
    Mr. Morris: The Department three-wheeler has been compared with other three-wheelers. There is the problem of the loneliest people in Britain. They are people who are too disabled to drive and who have no one to drive them. If we were to say that a family saloon car was the solution, there would be no possible ground for denying that to the person who was too disabled to drive but who could nominate a driver. That would not, however, help the loneliest people who have no one to drive them. I know that the hon. Gentleman is one of the most experienced people in this matter, and I shall bear his view very much in mind.
    Mr. Carter-Jones: Is not the answer that my hon. Friend ought to give that we should engage in complete flexibility, and that for some people who cannot drive the mobility grant is essential? The hon. Member for Harborough (Mr. Farr) is correct in saying that the four-wheeler is probably the best vehicle. Is my hon. Friend aware that there are thousands of people driving three-wheelers who want to keep them, and will he please realise that, in exceptional circumstances, for

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    the very severely handicapped even a milk float is better as a means of mobility than being housebound?
    Mr. Morris: The suggestion of a milk float is novel, but I agree with my hon. Friend that flexibility and freedom of choice are extremely important for disabled people. Those were the considerations which informed our preference for cash and not cars.

    Doctors' and Pharmacists' Premises
    Dr. Edmund Marshallasked the Secretary of State for Social Services whether she will introduce legislation to enable family practitioner committees to determine the locations of premises used by general practitioners and pharmacists within the National Health Service.
    Dr. Owen: I have no proposals to introduce such powers of direction over the independent contractors who provide family practitioner services.
    Dr. Marshall: May I remind my hon. Friend of the need for a family doctor surgery on the Warwick Estate at Knottingley and for a pharmacy in Old Goole? Is it not clear that needs such as those would be more easily met if family practitioner committees had the power to determine the location of such premises?
    Dr. Owen: My hon. Friend has taken a great interest in this, and I have had a meeting with him on the question of family practitioner services. I am looking into the question of the pharmaceutical services, but we must work in this area by persuasion.

    Hospital Benefactions
    Mr. Biggs-Davisonasked the Secretary of State for Social Services whether she will make a statement showing the extent to which hospitals in the National Health Service benefit from moneys allotted by benefactors to private patients' wings and the endowment of beds.
    The Secretary of State for Social Services (Mrs. Barbara Castle): The information is not available.
    Mr. Biggs-Davison: I should have thought that it ought to be available in view of the Government's intention to phase out private patients. Will the right hon. Lady inform us what the effect will be on such benefactions, and what will be done about it?
    Mrs. Castle: The information is not available, because, except in the case of the London postgraduate teaching hospitals, where the endowments continue to be administered by the boards of governors, any such endowments held by hospital authorities on 31st March last were transferred to the new health authorities or to special trustees. I do not see the relevance of this Question to the wider issue, on which there is a later Question, because the effect of phasing out private beds on the holding of gifts made in respect of such facilities will depend on the terms of the individual trust from which the gifts were made.
    Mr. Cryer: Will my right hon. Friend accept the congratulations of this side of the House on phasing out private pay beds? May we urge her to consider the total abolition of private medicine so that the sole criterion as to whether one receives medical attention is not one's depth of pocket but one's degree of illness?
    Mrs. Castle: I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his congratulations. What I am proposing to do, of course, is to carry out the terms of our election manifesto. This seems to cause consternation in some quarters of the Opposition, to whom it is an unfamiliar exercise. The manifesto specifically spells out that we are proposing not to abolish private practice but merely to phase out pay beds from the National Health Service hospitals. This is a policy of separation, not abolition.
    Mr. David Steel: Although the right hon. Lady has no responsibilities for the health service in Scotland would she assure hon. Members outside Scotland that private beds and private wings in National Health Service hospitals there are a comparative rarity and that the National Health Service in Scotland is none the poorer for that?
    Mrs. Castle: I am well aware of that and I heartily endorse what the hon. Gentleman has said.
    Sir G. Howe: Does not the right hon. Lady realise the extent of the widespread concern in the country about the fact that the Labour Party conference three years ago passed, without opposition, a resolution calling substantially for the abolition of private medicine? Will

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    she say whether she accepts the view put to her by her hon. Friend the Member for Keighley (Mr. Cryer), or can she assure the country that that is no part of Labour policy for the future?
    Mrs. Castle: There would be no need for me to confirm something that I had just said to my hon. Friend if the right hon. and learned Gentleman had been listening. What commits the Government is what was in our manifesto. I repeat that our manifesto policy is separation, not abolition.

    One-Parent Families
    Mr. Dalyellasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what steps she is taking to implement the recommendations of the Finer Committee's report in relation to women who are not receiving alimony awarded by court order.
    Mr. Tim Rentonasked the Secretary of State for Social Services if she will make a statement on implementation of the recommendations in the Finer Report.
    Mrs. Castle: The report contains over 200 recommendations involving many Departments and covering the whole span of problems affecting one-parent families. I gave a general indication of the Government's approach in my reply to my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South (Mr. George) on 2nd July.—[Vol. 876, c. 91–3.] On the main recommendation which falls within my responsibility—that there should be a special social security benefit for one-parent families to act as a guarantee of maintenance—I have at present nothing to add to the statement I made then.
    Mr. Dalyell: Precisely because there are 200 recommendations, is there not a case for expediting the solution of the particular problem of the woman who has been awarded alimony by court order and has not received it?
    Mrs. Castle: I am not sure what it is that my hon. Friend is asking for. Women on supplementary benefit are already enabled to obtain their full benefit each week, whether any maintenance awarded to them is paid or not. That is part of the present arrangements for supplementary benefit.
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    With regard to the wider question, the committee considered and rejected the idea that the State should underwrite private maintenance obligations other than obligations affecting those on supplementary benefit.
    Mr. Renton: The Secretary of State, in reply to Question No 6, referred to her obligations to fulfil the Labour Party's manifesto. What is she doing to implement the recommendations of the Finer Committee, bearing in mind Labour's manifesto commitment to implement the reforms suggested by that committee?
    Mrs. Castle: No, our election manifesto commits us to a child allowance scheme which would cover also the first child and would be of particular benefit to low-paid and one-parent families. That is still our policy, and I shall be announcing our intentions on it in due course. There are other recommendations of value to one-parent families, and some of the smaller ones have already been acted upon by the Supplementary Benefits Commission. Others are under continuing examination by me and by my colleagues, and announcements will be made on them from time to time.
    Mr. Tomlinson: I acknowledge the work that my right hon. Friend is doing in this area, but is she not aware that the Finer Report has created such a range of expectations among my constituents and many others that it has now become a matter of urgency that those expectations should not be allowed to remain unfulfilled?
    Mrs. Castle: I agree with my hon. Friend, and I am well aware of the activities of the Gingerbread Group and others. We all met them during the election campaign. The recommendations are not being allowed to collect dust on the shelves. On the contrary, action on several of them which do not affect my Department is already being considered. I repeat that our central form of financial help to these families will be the child allowance scheme.
    Mrs. Kellett-Bowman: The right hon. Lady unfortunately missed the whole point of the question when she referred to supplementary benefit, because the point is that if a woman receives—
    Mr. Speaker: Order. This is not lecture time. It is Question Time.
    Mrs. Kellett-Bowman: Will the Secretary of State accept that if a woman receives alimony under a court order, that is not reduced when she has earnings, whereas if she has to get it by supplementary benefit her earnings are taken into account and, therefore, it cannot improve her family's standard in the same way as an alimony payment can?
    Mrs. Castle: The hon. Lady is right. If the person concerned has earnings, she will not be on supplementary benefit. I am referring only to the fact that, where a woman on supplementary benefit is entitled to maintenance, she does not have to pursue her husband herself. She is paid the benefit, and the collecting is done by the Supplementary Benefits Commission.

    Hospitals (Private Practice)
    Mrs. Renée Shortasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what steps she intends to take to phase out private practice from National Health Service hospitals.
    Mr. Peter Morrisonasked the Secretary of State for Social Services whether she intends to abolish private beds from National Health Service hospitals; and, if so, when.
    Mr. Gwilym Robertsasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what plans she has for phasing out private beds in National Health hospitals; and if she will make a statement.
    Mrs. Castle: The Government's priorities have been clearly stated in two successive elections, and, as I have said in the House—[Vol. 880, c. 544–51]—I am fully committed by the outcome of those elections to a policy of separating private practice from the work of the NHS. Future arrangements for private practice formed part of the remit given to the Working Party on the Consultants' Contract chaired by my hon. Friend the Minister of State, and I am awaiting the outcome of its discussions before deciding on the detailed arrangement for implementing our manifesto commitment.
    Mrs. Short: I am much obliged to my right hon. Friend. Will she bear in mind that the consultants who are taking
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    such an intransigent stand on the working party are, in fact, a minority and do not represent the majority of the medical profession, and that if they withdraw their labour, as they are threatening to do if all does not go as they would wish, there are many junior hospital doctors who are ready and willing to be promoted to full-time consultants in the National Health Service?
    Mrs. Castle: My hon. Friend is right. Something like 50 per cent. of consultants in the National Health Service already work full-time and dedicate their entire time and energies to their National Health Service patients. We believe that one of our priorities should be to reward them more adequately and to encourage others to follow their example.
    Mr. Morrison: In view of the right hon. Lady's decision to phase out private beds from National Health Service hospitals, can she tell us whether she agreed with Mr. Aneurin Bevan when he said that if these were not charged in the National Health Service hospitals many specialists would leave and go to private nursing homes? Does she think that that is even remotely desirable?
    Mrs. Castle: I know that the hon. Gentleman is a Conservative, but over a period of 30 years one expects National Health Service needs to develop and, therefore, the solutions to those needs to change. Admirer as I am of Aneurin Bevan for his great achievement in putting the National Health Service on the statute book and into operation, I am confident that if he were alive now and in my job he would be doing exactly what I am doing.
    Mr. Roberts: Will my right hon. Friend accept again the welcome from this side of the House for her decision to phase out private hospital beds? Does she agree with me that, although it may not yet be in the manifesto, the overwhelming majority of the Labour movement looks forward to the day when the apartheid of private medicine and private education disappears? Moreover, in view of the alarming Press reports of abuses of the National Health Service by some consultants, will she inquire into these abuses to find out the truth?
    Mrs. Castle: I am bound by the manifesto and it is that which I am operating.

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    I would say to my hon. Friends that we are of course united in one overwhelming aim—that is, to secure a National Health Service in which the criteria for admission shall be those of medical priority only and not financial ones.
    Mr. Alison: In the context of the phasing-out of private patients from National Health Service hospitals, what will be the right hon. Lady's policy on National Health Service patients at present in private hospitals under contract payments? Further, what will be her policy in respect of National Health Service patients who might seek admittance to private hospitals to be built in the future?
    Mrs. Castle: In so far as any patient does not violate the criteria I have just laid down, if the whole criterion is medical priority for admission, there will of course be no change.
    Mr. William Hamilton: Has my right hon. Friend read the report of the Sub-Committee of the Expenditure Committee chaired by my hon. Friend the Member for Wolverhampton, North-East (Mrs. Short), which received evidence that consultants were thieving—or borrowing in the long term, to put it politely—quite expensive equipment from the National Health Service? Will she make a thorough inquiry into that kind of abuse and ensure that, if private medicine continues to exist, it does so completely outside of and financed separately from the National Health Service?
    Mrs. Castle: I am, of course, aware of the report. I have studied it and I am sure that that report has had a profound effect and influence in the policy on which we fought the election. I repeat that it is our policy to separate private practice from the National Health Service. We are not proposing to impose a State monopoly. We do not intend to impose a full-time salaried service, but we do say that private practice should be separate from and outside the people's own hospitals.
    Sir G. Howe: Will the right hon. Lady accept that bland assurances of that kind carry very little conviction with the medical profession in the light of the observations made, for example, by her hon. Friend the Member for Cannock (Mr. Roberts), who asserted that it was
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    the wish of the overwhelming majority of the Labour Party to see the end of private medicine? Cannot she accept that the determination with which she is pursuing this policy, which will damage the health service and seriously impair the morale of the medical profession, is as wrong-headed as the policy itself is misguided?
    Mrs. Castle: Like hon. Members opposite, my hon. Friends have the right to state their individual views and to urge in the House the policies in which they believe. I have spoken today, as I did last Friday, on behalf of the Government and I have stated the Government's policy. Therefore, I repeat that the right hon. and learned Gentleman will find it desperately difficult to stir up feeling against our policy. I think he will find, as my hon. Friend said earlier, that there is a large and increasing number of consultants in this country who welcome our policy.

    Supplementary Benefit
    Mr. R. C. Mitchellasked the Secretarry of State for Social Services whether she will have consultations with the Supplementary Benefits Commission concerning the reduction of supplementary benefit to those who take in lodgers, including students.
    The Under-Secretary of State for Health and Social Security (Mr. Alec Jones): I know that my hon. Friend is concerned over the outcome in a particular case, about which we shall be writing to him in due course. But in general I do not think that consultations with the commission are called for.
    Mr. Mitchell: Is my hon. Friend aware that when a pensioner or other person on supplementary benefit takes in a student, one-third of what the university pays on behalf of the student is regarded as profit and the supplementary benefit is reduced accordingly? Does he not agree that in this day and age one-third is a ridiculous figure, especially as it is having an extremely serious effect in university towns by making it difficult for the university authorities to place students in suitable lodgings?
    Mr. Jones: I take the point made by my hon. Friend. However, there is no evidence that that is in fact so and that

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    this arrangement acts as any sort of disincentive to people to take in students. I appreciate my hon. Friend's point regarding the supplementary benefit disregards. As the House knows, we intend to review the supplementary benefit disregards as soon as resources permit.

    Widows' Pensions
    Mr. McCrindleasked the Secretary of State for Social Services if it is the Government's intention in the forthcoming pensions legislation to pay widows' pensions at 100 per cent. of the rate of pension of the deceased husband.
    Mr. O'Malley: I refer the hon. Gentleman to the proposals contained in the Government's White Paper "Better Pensions", Cmnd. 5713.
    Mr. McCrindle: Is the Minister aware that the usual practice in occupational pension schemes is to pay the widow 50 per cent. of the pension which the deceased would have obtained had he lived to that time? Will he accept that in many cases that would be beneficial to the widow rather than the 100 per cent. of the pension which the deceased has actually earned to the date of death, which I understand to be the Government's proposal? Will the Minister consider the possibility of extending to a widow in these circumstances a choice between the two, whichever would be the more beneficial to her?
    Mr. O'Malley: First, I must point out that the proposals for widows in the White Paper "Better Pensions" mark a historic improvement on anything that has gone before. Second, to answer the hon. Gentleman directly, who says that occupational pension schemes generally provide enhancement for widow's benefit, the fact is that in the private sector more than half of those belonging to occupational pensions schemes have no widowhood cover of any kind, although in some occupational pension schemes there is a degree of enhancement. I believe that with our White Paper proposals we shall provide vastly improved benefits for the generality of widows. I should, of course, be prepared to consider any proposals that may be put forward at an appropriate stage during the discussion of any Bill that comes before the House, or, indeed, if the hon. Gentleman writes to me.

    Redditch District General Hospital
    Mr. Hal Millerasked the Secretary of State for Social Services whether she can give a date for the start of work on the new Redditch District General Hospital.
    Dr. Owen: It is not possible to forecast a starting date for this project as the level of capital allocations to regional health authorities has yet to be decided.
    Mr. Miller: Can the Minister understand the widespread concern among the staff at Bromsgrove General Hospital and among my constituents, and will he give an assurance that maximum administrative delay will not be exercised over the starting of work on this hospital merely in order to save funds? In other words, is it to be subject to cuts in public expenditure or does he envisage that it will proceed in accordance with the original programme?
    Dr. Owen: I am not prepared to prejudge the review of cuts in public expenditure.
    Mr. Greville Janner: Is my hon. Friend aware that, whatever the needs of Redditch, there are areas, such as Leicester, with the lowest proportion of hospital beds per head of population almost anywhere? Can he give some assurance to people in such areas that they will be treated fairly by the Government, whatever cuts may have to be made?
    Dr. Owen: I am all too aware of the stark regional inequalities in capital provision and revenue provision in the health service. We are determined to redress those regional inequalities.
    Mr. Nigel Lawson: Will the Minister, in the light of his reply, make sure that if there are any cuts, re-phasings or slowings-down of hospital expenditure as a result of what we hear in the Chancellor of the Exchequer's statement later, or because of a review of public expenditure, this will be used as a means of equalising it, particularly in favour of Leicestershire? May I draw his attention in that respect to Early-Day Motion No. 17 in the name of all the Leicestershire Members, and in particular may I urge on him the importance of making a start

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    on the district general hospital at Glenfield?
    Dr. Owen: I am aware of the particular regional inequality to which the hon. Gentleman has referred. I shall try to protect areas which have been deprived over the years. However, a 20 per cent. cut in capital expenditure on hospitals was announced by the Conservative Government in December last year.

    Pensions
    Mr. Stanleyasked the Secretary of State for Social Services when the next increase in the State basic and other public service pensions will take place, excluding the Christmas bonus.
    Mrs. Castle: I must ask the hon. Member to await the announcement of the Government's intentions in relation to social security benefits. Increases in public service pensions are not a matter for me but I understand that regulations were laid before the House in August providing for increases in those pensions to take effect from 1st December 1974.
    Mr. Stanley: I welcome the flexibility that has been shown by the right hon. Lady in the timing of the next increase in the State basic pension. Will she particularly bear in mind the latest forecast from the Price Commission of a rate of increase in the retail price index of about 20 per cent. in the current 12 months?
    Mrs. Castle: Yes, Sir.
    Mr. Kenneth Clarke: Will the Secretary of State appreciate the dramatic fall in purchasing power of benefits between annual reviews at present rates of inflation? As the Conservative Party was prepared in February to undertake to introduce six-monthly reviews had it been returned to office, and as there are no administrative difficulties about a six-monthly review in January or February of next year, will the right hon. Lady confirm that the Government will find the political will to introduce that system?
    Mrs. Castle: All I say to the hon. Gentleman is that actions speak louder than words. That is why we won the election.1974

    Long Eaton (Health Centre)
    Mr. Rostasked the Secretary of State for Social Services when work will begin on the construction of the health centre at Long Eaton.
    Dr. Owen: This scheme is included in the 1974–75 programme. Subject to the receipt of satisfactory tenders, work is expected to start early in 1975.
    Mr. Rost: Will the Minister ask his right hon. Friend to do another walkabout in Long Eaton and apologise to those constituents of mine whom she deliberately deceived during the election campaign in support of the Labour candidate by giving the impression that this health centre had been cancelled by the previous Conservative Government and restored by her Government?
    Dr. Owen: The present Government have given an unprecedented stimulus to health centre building programmes and have authorised more health centres than any other. On the specific question which the hon. Gentleman raised, I am sure that my right hon. Friend never deluded anyone about the intentions of the Labour Government.

    Insurance Contributions (Self- employed Persons)
    Mr. Jesselasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what proposals she has for national insurance contributions for self-employed persons.
    Mr. O'Malley: I would refer the hon. Member to what I said during the debate on the Second Reading of the Social Security Amendment Bill on 6th November.—[ Vol. 880, c. 1111–26]
    Mr. Jessel: Why have the Government singled out self-employed people as such to pay much higher contributions than anyone else? Would it not be much fairer to relate the contribution solely to the capacity to pay, without reference to the category of employment? Is it the policy of the Government to drive independent people, such as small shopkeepers, out of existence and to try to persuade everyone to work for large-scale organisations?
    Mr. O'Malley: I will tell the hon. Gentleman whom we have singled out.

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    We have singled out for help the self-employed with the lowest incomes. We have not put up their contributions. But the Tory Party, which traditionally clobbers and does not understand the interests of the lower-paid, could not be expected to accept that.
    Secondly, the reasons underlying the present structure of self-employed contributions, both class 2 and class 4, were fully discussed during the proceedings on the Social Security Act 1973, which is a Tory structure which we are implementing, and the ratio of contributions between the self-employed on the one hand and employed earners on the other hand is kept roughly in the same proportion as the hon. Gentleman's Government had in 1973.
    Sir G. Howe: Will not the Minister accept responsibility for the changes that he is making to the disadvantage of the self-employed? Does he not acknowledge that for self-employed people earning £30 a week or more it is his Government, and his Government alone, who are raising contributions from 5 per cent. to 8 per cent., a wholly unjustifiable discrimination against the self-employed?
    Mr. O'Malley: The right hon. and learned Gentleman refused to answer my question on Second Reading when I asked him whether the Conservative Party would have put up the class 2 contributions by a further 29p, which would have been wholly disadvantageous to the lower paid among the self-employed. If the right hon. and learned Gentleman suggests that we should bring the percentage we propose down, he has to tell me where we should find the extra £25 million. Should it come from the lower paid among the self-employed, does he want to put an additional burden on class 1 employees or does he propose that we should load an additional contribution on employers? The right hon. and learned Gentleman must put his options forward before he criticises our proposals, which give help to those who have the smallest incomes.

  MUDEFORD, DORSET
  Mr. Adleyasked the Prime Minister if he will pay an official visit to Mudeford, Dorset.
  The Prime Minister (Mr. Harold Wilson): I have at present no plans to do so, Sir.
  Mr. Adley: If the Prime Minister should decide to come to Mudeford, or any part of my constituency, would he explain to my constituents why Labour Members of Parliament, Mr. Joe Gormley and spokesmen for the National Coal Board were so silent during both the February election and the last election about the influence of Communists in the National Coal Board—[Interruption]—the National Union of Mineworkers. The Prime Minister will know I meant the NUM. May I ask him to reread the excellent statement which he made in the House on 20th June 1966? Will he then say whether he would describe Mr. McGahey, Mr. Scargill and their comrades as a tightly-knit group of politically motivated men?
  The Prime Minister: May I first congratulate the hon. Gentleman on turning up for Budget Day in normal dress? Addressing myself to his supplementary question, after exhaustive research I have found that there are no mineworkers in Mudeford.
  Mr. Evelyn King: Whether or not the right hon. Gentleman is able to visit Dorset, where he would certainly be welcome, will he undertake to do what he has seldom done but what I suggest he ought to do, namely, visit some part of rural England in order that outraged and desperate livestock farmers may have an opportunity to put as sympathetically as they can, and as strongly as they would like to do, their views to a Minister whom they feel they can trust?
  The Prime Minister: Should I visit that part of Dorset, I would never be as welcome as when I spoke in a by-election in 1962 which led to a Labour victory there. On the serious point raised by the hon. Member, he will know that the particular matters which have been raised in debate in the House in the past two weeks and at Question Time will, of course, be the subject of what my right hon. Friend the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food will be discussing with his colleagues the Agriculture Ministers in Brussels next week.

  EDINBURGH
  Mr. Dalyellasked the Prime Minister if he will make an official visit to Edinburgh.
  The Prime Minister: I would refer my hon. Friend to the reply which I gave on 5th November to the hon. Member for Glasgow, Cathcart (Mr. Taylor).—[Vol. 880, c. 115.]
  Mr. Dalyell: When are we to expect a timetable for the Assembly?
  The Prime Minister: My right hon. Friend the Lord President told the House last Tuesday at the end of the debate on the Gracious Speech that he hoped that the legislation would be drafted during the present Session. In any case, my right hon. Friend said that he hoped that by Christmas he would be able to indicate a firmer timetable to the House. There is no question of any delay that can be avoided, but as I have already told the House, as did my right hon. Friend, the measures that we are taking are of a nature and depth unprecedented in our history. I think that it would be wrong to rush legislation before the House and on to the statute book until full consideration and consultation has taken place.
  Mr. Alexander Fletcher: Whenever the Prime Minister visits Edinburgh, will he take the opportunity to inform himself of the important contributions that the independent Scottish banks and insurance companies make to the Scottish and, indeed, to the British economy? Will the right hon. Gentleman remove the threat of nationalisation from those institutions, particularly the threat of centralisation of their control to London which would follow nationalisation?
  The Prime Minister: I am sure that the hon. Gentleman is right in what he said about the important part played in the economy, not only of Scotland but of the United Kingdom as well, by those banks. However, I cannot myself recall anything, either in the Gracious Speech or in the Labour Party manifesto, that would give rise to any anxiety on the part of the hon. Gentleman.
  Mrs. Winifred Ewing: In view of the Prime Minister's promise of early legislation—at least we on this bench hope
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  that there will be early legislation—is it not time that the right hon. Gentleman visited Edinburgh, among other things to tell the incumbents in Parliament House that he has no designs—[Interruption.]—on that particular building for the new parliament? Will the right hon. Gentleman consider setting up a committee to settle where the site of the parliament will be? Is he aware that that is a matter of considerable importance in Scotland? Will the Prime Minister also give his mind to setting up a committee now to consider decentralisation as a good thing and to consider sites other than in Edinburgh, and when he sets up that committee, as he will do, will he put me in charge of it?
  The Prime Minister: The hon. Lady has certainly raised a very important question, but I do not think that it is one for immediate decision. When other more constitutional matters have been settled in respect of the legislation, the question of premises will be of great importance. There will be a number of possible claimants not only from Edinburgh but, as the hon. Lady said, perhaps from outside Edinburgh as well.
  There was a little noise, but when the hon. Lady mentioned "Parliament building" I do not know whether she meant the Assembly of the Church of Scotland building.
  Mrs. Ewing indicated dissent.
  The Prime Minister: I do not think we can possibly take any decisions on the subject now. There will be consultations on those matters and, should it be necessary to build new premises, consideration might be given to an architectural competition for it. All those matters are still some way in the future.

  MINISTERIAL BROADCASTS
  Mr. Blakerasked the Prime Minister when he next proposes to make a ministerial television broadcast.
  Mr. Skinnerasked the Prime Minister if he has any plans to make a ministerial broadcast.
  Mr. Rostasked the Prime Minister when he expects to make his next ministerial broadcast.
  The Prime Minister: I would refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply which I gave on 7th November to my hon. Friend the Member for Goole (Dr. Marshall).—[Vol. 880, c. 206.]
  Mr. Blaker: When the Prime Minister makes such a broadcast, will he tell the country more about the claim that he made on 20th September, at the beginning of the election campaign, that
  "Cohorts of distinguished journalists have been combing obscure parts of the country with a mandate to find anything, true or fabricated, to use against the Labour Party"?
  Would the right hon. Gentleman now name the journalists and the newspapers, or withdraw what he said?
  The Prime Minister: There is nothing to withdraw. What I said was true.
  Mr. Skinner: As my right hon. Friend is not making a broadcast immediately, would he help the Chancellor of the Exchequer with his broadcast tonight? Would my right hon. Friend ensure that on the question of possible relaxation of price controls and corporation tax he explains precisely how that money will be ploughed into the necessary investment that we hear about so often? Can he tell us what controls we might have to deal with, say, money of that kind finishing up in the German property market, as it did last year?
  The Prime Minister: I cannot anticipate my right hon. Friend's ministerial broadcast.
  Mr. Rost: If we cannot have the Prime Minister, can we have the Attorney-General to explain to the country what advice he gave to the Government on the Clay Cross scandal?
  The Prime Minister: No. I do not think there is any necessity for that. The Government have announced their collective decision. The hon. Member may be basing himself on some stories in the Press about advice that was not given to the Government but which is said to have been given on an earlier occasion and for which there is no ministerial responsibility either by my right hon. and learned Friend or by myself.
  Mr. Whitehead: In view of the question that began this exchange and in view of the recent imprisonment of Mr. Ronald Milhench for forgery, would my right hon.
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  Friend say whether he has received any apology from those hon. Members who were so free with innuendo and allegation in March of this year?
  The Prime Minister: I have not, nor from the newspapers concerned, but I would not regard this as a fitting subject for a ministerial broadcast.
  Mr. Peyton: While I hope that the Prime Minister will spare the country the ordeal of a Prime Ministerial television broadcast, may I take him back to the point raised by my hon. Friend the Member for Blackpool, South (Mr. Blaker) and ask him whether those allegations were made for the purpose of browbeating the Press into silence or whether they were made for the purpose of a quite unfounded smear?
  The Prime Minister: The right hon. Gentleman is not at his best level. With regard to his hopes that I will not inflict a ministerial broadcast on the nation, in deciding to do so there are other considerations, apart from what I might want to say—for example, to give an opportunity to the Leader of the Opposition to get his say in as well. As for the latter part of the right hon. Gentleman's question, that statement was made because the facts were true.
  Mr. Heath: Why is the Prime Minister so reluctant to substantiate the facts? He has said that when the time comes he will give them to the Royal Commission on the Press, I understand. It may be many years before the Royal Commission on the Press reports. Would it not be fair to all concerned for the Prime Minister quite simply in the House, where he has the benefit of privilege, to substantiate the facts?
  The Prime Minister: Many of the facts are, as the right hon. Gentleman will know, being inquired into now by the police. If he did not know that, he has been far too busy recently to read the Press. I shall certainly present the evidence to the Royal Commission on the Press. I have been invited to do so by the Press Council, but neither the constitution nor the record of the Press Council would justify using it in any such inquiry.
  Mr. Heath: As we do not know what the allegations are, how are we to know that the police are inquiring into them?

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  If the Prime Minister is not satisfied with either the Press Council or the long period which the Royal Commission on the Press may take to report, I repeat the invitation for him, with the benefit of privilege, to justify his statements to this House.
  The Prime Minister: It does not need the benefit of privilege. The right hon. Gentleman, shortly after the February election, gave the House the benefit of a debate on the Press on a Supply Day when these matters were to some extent raised. These facts are true and at the proper time they will be justified.
  Mr. Blaker: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. In view of the unsatisfactory nature of the reply, I beg to give notice that I shall seek an early opportunity of raising the matter on the Adjournment.

  DEVOLUTION
  Mr. George Gardinerasked the Prime Minister if he is satisfied with the co-ordination between the Lord President and the Secretaries of State for Scotland and for Wales on the proposals for devolution of power from Westminster.
  The Prime Minister: I would refer the hon. Member to the reply which I gave on 7th November to my hon. Friend the Member for West Lothian (Mr. Dalyell).—[Vol. 880, c. 205]
  Mr. Gardiner: Does the Prime Minister accept that there is a very real English interest in this matter? Furthermore, will he acknowledge that though there is a great number of English Members of the House who would happily see the Scots taking direct control over their own health, housing, education and so on, it would be quite intolerable for this to happen, for example, when Scottish Members were exercising a vote relating to English health, housing and education?
  The Prime Minister: The hon. Gentleman is making a serious point. Of course English Ministers, including my right hon. Friend the Lord President of the Council, who is in charge of these particular discussions, will be involved in matters affecting England. As the hon. Gentleman will be aware, my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment is very closely identified with these
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  matters because of particular proposals which have been put forward in past times and fairly recently for further devolution in England itself.
  Mr. William Hamilton: When the Ministers concerned get together to discuss the problems of devolution, will they consider the assertion being made that Scotland has a balance-of-payments surplus? Is my right hon. Friend able to supply the House with any information at all to confirm that impression? I understand that there is no scintilla of evidence anywhere to the effect that it is true.
  The Prime Minister: I agree with my hon. Friend that in the past most calculations have suggested that what he says is right. But there was an authoritative treatment of this question attached, I think, to one of the minority reports of the Royal Commission, which dealt with economic questions and economic relations between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. But economic matters, including what my hon. Friend describes as a balance of payments across the border, will be very much questions for consideration by the devolution unit and by my right hon. Friends in the consultations.
  Several Hon. Members rose—
  Mr. Speaker: Order. We must proceed to the real business of the day.

WAYS AND MEANS

  BUDGET STATEMENT
  Mr. Speaker: Before I call the Chancellor of the Exchequer, it may be for the convenience of hon. Members if I remind them that at the end of the Chancellor's speech, as in past years, copies of the Budget Resolutions will not be handed around in the Chamber but will be available to hon. Members in the Vote Office.
  Mr. R. J. Maxwell-Hyslop: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. Would it not be for the convenience of the House, as I see from the Order Paper that the first order today is, surprisingly, not a Government order, if Motion No. 31 on the Order Paper on the subject of value added tax, in the names of myself and some of my hon. Friends, were taken with that which you are about to call?
  Mr. Speaker: I am advised that that would be quite contrary to precedent.

INTRODUCTION
3.32 p.m.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. Denis Healey): Less than eight months ago I presented my first Budget on 26th March. It was just three weeks after a General Election, and I was Chancellor of the Exchequer in a minority Government whose life was bound to be counted in months, not years. On this occasion I have enjoyed the luxury of four weeks since the General Election and I am Chancellor of the Exchequer in a majority Government; a majority, if we are to judge by the votes last week, somewhat larger than might appear on the surface. So I can and must see this Budget as helping to lay the foundation of a comprehensive strategy for dealing with Britain's economic problems over the next four years.
When I addressed the House last March the economic outlook both at home and abroad was totally uncertain. One of these uncertainties at least is much reduced. We now know that Britain has recovered from two months of three-day working with far less damage than seemed likely at the time. I took account of this fact in the measures I presented to the
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House in July. But the international uncertainties are in some respects even greater today than they were eight months ago.

THE WORLD ECONOMY
By now oil prices have increased fivefold in just over a year. Oil is not only the most important single source of energy in the world; it has also become one of the most important industrial raw materials. So the effect of its price increase on inflation throughout the world needs little explanation. Britain, for example, is paying £2,500 million more this year for 5 per cent. less oil than she imported last year. The effects of this colossal sum feed through directly not only into the costs of energy, light, heating and transport but also into anything made of plastic, from packaging to kitchen equipment. The indirect effects are felt in the price of almost everything we buy.
It follows that the increase in oil prices has itself substantially reduced demand for other goods in the consumer countries. And this reduction in home demand has not been, and cannot now be, offset by a comparable increase in demand from the producer countries as a whole because many of them will not be able for many years to absorb goods and services to the new value of the oil they export. The size of this reduction in overall world demand corresponds to the size of the so-called petro-dollar surplus.
This year the total size of the petrodollar surplus is likely to be of the order of 60 billion dollars. Surpluses of stupendous size could continue for a number of years. I will not take time now to speculate on whether this prospect is inescapable. Market forces may well reassert themselves as consumer countries are driven by economic necessity to use less oil and as alternative sources of energy are exploited. But, unless or until this happens, a whole range of problems is going to press with increasing severity on the world economy and, indeed, to threaten its stability and that of the international financial system. This threat applies not only to oil consumers but to oil producers, and it is for this reason—our common interest—that we must develop a constructive dialogue with

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them. Meanwhile there are more immediate implications for action in the consumer countries which must not now be ignored.
First, to the extent that the producer countries cannot import goods and services to the value of the oil they export, any attempt by the consumer countries to achieve an overall balance in their individual payments year by year can only, to quote Dr. Witteveen's words at the recent IMF meeting in Washington,
"reallocate the deficit among the consumer countries"
—at the cost of cut-throat competition in a trade war which would forfeit all the gains the world has made since 1945 in constructing an orderly framework for international trade and payments.
The consumer countries must therefore accept the inevitability of massive payments deficits on oil account for the time being, and finance these deficits by equally massive borrowing. In the end, the only possible source of such borrowing is the surpluses of the oil producers. So we must develop a range of measures by which to recycle these petro-dollar surpluses so that the consumer countries are able to import the oil they need to keep their economies at work. Otherwise the world is set for a slump at least on the scale of the 1930s.
Second, if we add to the cut in demand in the consumer countries already imposed by the increase in oil prices a further cut in demand in the belief that this will somehow cure cost-inflation we shall, as Dr. Witteveen warned the world, risk turning the "stagflation" already affecting so many countries into "slumpflation".
The indications already are serious enough. Over the last few months commentators here and overseas have been continuously' revising downwards their estimates of the growth in world trade and output in 1975. Earlier this year, for example, the OECD put the growth of world trade in the first half of 1975 at an annual rate of 8 per cent. The best estimate I can now offer is well below this, perhaps under 5 per cent. in 1975 as a whole. In Germany and the United States there are now predictions of large-scale unemployment.
Yet there is no real evidence that in this situation the adoption of deflationary policies will produce a worthwhile impact on the rate of inflation—at any rate within a time scale that democracy will tolerate. In the United States the annual rate of inflation rose from 6 per cent. in 1973 to 12 per cent. in the third quarter of this year. Moreover, the combination of inflation and the threat of unemployment is beginning to subject many countries to serious social strains. The number of industrial disputes has increased sharply all over the Western world.
It is a sombre picture. But there are signs that many other Governments besides our own are coming to recognise the true nature of the problem and are treating the risk of mass unemployment more seriously.
Perhaps the most striking example is the interview of the German Federal Chancellor, Herr Helmut Schmidt, in Die Zeit last week. He foresaw the need for a deliberate redirection of the German economy at the turn of the year. Asked whether this meant the end of the Government's stability policy, he replied that the word "stability" was too often taken as applying only to prices. He was concerned with overall stability, including social and labour stability, and world factors could oblige the German Government to give first priority to ensuring that unemployment did not pass the 5 per cent. mark—that is in Germany something over 1 million unemployed.
This is good and important news, because, for most countries in the industrial world, the scope for further reflationary measures depends critically on the policies of the American and German Governments, since between them they account for two-fifths of world trade. The risk for the rest of us is that if we go too far towards reflating our economies before there is real prospect of a general increase in world trade, our imports may increase out of proportion to our exports, with unacceptable consequences for our balance of payments and ultimately for our battle against inflation, too.
I have offered this brief and oversimplified outline of the impact of the oil crisis on the economy of the industrial world—ignoring for the moment its even more tragic impact on the developing world where 800 million people are condemned to permanent hunger—because

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nothing we in Britain do at home can succeed if the world as a whole does not adjust successfully to the impact of the increase in oil prices. That is why I have spent so much time in recent months discussing these problems with my colleagues from other countries. For until collectively we come to terms with the challenge it presents, there is grave risk that we shall once again be plunged into a depression on a scale as great as we encountered over 40 years ago.

THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY
I turn now to our specifically national problems. Britain entered 1974—the year of the oil crisis—in a worse condition than nearly all her partners in the industrial world. Growth had come to a halt even before the three-day week depressed output further. Our balance of payments deficit, as the Governor of the Bank of England reminded us last January, was already running at a rate equivalent to 4 per cent. of our gross national product, before the increase in oil prices had had more than a marginal effect.
As I told the House in March, my job on taking office as Chancellor of the Exchequer in a minority Government was to stop the rot. I think I can claim to have succeeded at least in this. Despite two months in which our national output actually fell, the level of total output has I believe now recovered at least to about where it was a year ago.
The volume of personal consumption, which fell in the first half of the year, recovered in the third quarter. The provisional estimate for the volume of retail sales last month shows it continuing at the rate reached last quarter.
Investment in manufacturing industry rose strongly in the first half of this year, despite the interruption of the three-day week. But there are now signs that some investment is being postponed or even cancelled—mainly for reasons I shall refer to later.
When I spoke to the House in March we all believed that demand would be substantially increased in the following months by the need to replace large volumes of stocks which had been used up during the three-day week. We now know that stocks were drawn down early
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in the year less than we then expected, so the scale of replenishment has been smaller, too.
I expect the House is as puzzled as I am by some aspects of the unemployment figures. They have reflected some easing in the demand for labour. By mid-October the number of unemployed was about 100,000 higher than a year earlier when there was widespread over-heating in the economy. But in many areas of the economy the demand for labour still seems to be strong, particularly for skilled workers in most of engineering. The latest seasonally adjusted figures suggest that unemployment is increasing more slowly than most of us expected. I hope that the doubling of the regional employment premium I announced in July may be one reason for this.
It is exceptionally difficult to judge the immediate prospects for demand and activity in Britain. Consumer spending may continue to rise. Some expenditure in the public sector will also be increasing. In particular some of the nationalised industries are engaged in major investment programmes. Current expenditure by the local authorities will be growing, but less fast than in recent years. On balance, the prospect seems to be of a slow continued growth in both demand and output. Unemployment is more likely to rise than to fall, though the estimated growth of demand should prevent it from rising fast—subject to one condition T shall come to in a moment.

THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
Our balance of payments problem is a formidable one. But we can take some satisfaction from the reduction we have made this year in our deficit on non-oil account. Our non-oil deficit was running at £240 million a month in the last quarter of 1973. Over recent months it has averaged some £80 million a month—a reduction of two-thirds—and at that level it was more than covered by our invisible earnings. On the other hand, as I have said, we have been paying £2,500 million more this year for a smaller quantity of oil. So our overall trade deficit is larger than it has been at any time before 1974.
One reason for the recovery in our external trade performance has been the recent halt in the rise of import prices.

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With export prices still rising fast, this improvement in our terms of trade has helped to narrow the visible trade gap. I now expect that our external deficit on current account this year will be below the figure of £4,000 million which has generally been predicted as the minimum.
It is immensely difficult to make any meaningful forecasts for the year ahead. As I have said, estimates for the growth in the volume of world trade have been steadily revised downwards over recent months.
It is even more difficult to make a judgment about the competitiveness of our export prices next year compared with those of our main competitors. We can at least agree that, at a time when the growth in world trade is shrinking, it is vitally important that our export costs are not unnecessarily inflated by excessive wage increases.
I have some concern that not all British firms are taking full advantage of the exceptional opportunities for exports now opening in the oil-producing countries. Some are putting a great deal of effort into this field. But I hope that more will do so. All oil-producing countries are planning to use as much of their revenues as they can on internal development and expansion. Their imports will accordingly rise rapidly in the next few years and the scope for higher British exports here should be very great indeed.
Nevertheless, as I have said, the oil-consuming countries will have to share enormous deficits over the coming years in their trade on oil account, though these can be expected to decrease in time as the oil-producing countries expand their imports. I already recognise this and others will have to do so. I notice that my French colleague, Monsieur Fourcade, has recently stated that French borrowings are likely to total at least $6,000 million this year.
We shall therefore continue with the programme for foreign borrowing by the public sector which was started by the previous Government to finance its non-oil deficit long before the increase in oil prices. I have already announced that for technical reasons I have begun to draw on the $2·5 billion borrowing arrangement which I announced in my March Budget Statement. In addition to borrowing in United States dollars, we have seen a sub
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stantial contribution to our external financing needs through sterling inflows—investment in sterling assets of many kinds. There is no doubt that this willingness to invest in sterling reflects the scale, range, flexibility—and reliability—of the channels offered by the London market—an aspect of the City's rôle which all of us must welcome.
In this connection, I now wish to announce a decision I have taken about the present guarantee of certain official overseas holdings of sterling. The guarantee expires at the end of this year, and I have had to consider whether it should be replaced. There are a number of considerations.
In the past, the sterling guarantees have made an important contribution to international financial stability. But they were conceived in the international financial situation of 1968. The situation was already very different by September 1973, when the original 1968 Agreements expired. Since then it has been further transformed by the rise in oil prices and the associated emergence of the huge petrodollar surpluses. Against this massive change in the international financial situation, the guarantees have lost much of their relevance. The present guarantee arrangement, which runs to the end of the year applies to only a small proportion of total sterling holdings. The reason is that, like its immediate predecessor, it sets an upper limit on the balances covered, so no sterling holdings built up since September 1973 have been guaranteed. Moreover, the question of the investment of the surplus oil revenues has given this area of policy an international dimension which makes such guarantees inappropriate.
I have therefore concluded that the right course is to discontinue guarantees altogether when the present arrangement lapses, and I am so informing the Governments concerned. I am sure that there need be no regret at the passing of an arrangement which has now become largely irrelevant, harking back, as it does, to so different a set of circumstances.
I might add that it seems most unlikely that any payment will become due at the end of this year under the present guarantee.
What I have said about borrowing and about overseas investments in sterling reflects my expectation that we foresee

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no difficulty in financing the current account deficit. But I want to make it quite clear that this does not mean that I contemplate borrowing indefinitely on anything like the present scale. I am determined that the balance of payments shall show a continuing and sustained improvement, and this will be a crucial objective of my strategy for the economy over the next four years.

INFLATION
I now turn to the position on inflation. As a result of our policies, the rate of price increases has been held below the level it would have reached and the weakest members of the community have been given special protection. We have introduced food subsidies, frozen rents, and the measures I took in July had price reduction as their central theme. In addition, we have had some relief from rising prices on some of our imported raw materials like copper, rubber and fibres. Sir Arthur Cockfield's recent report records easing of inflationary pressures. These are hopeful factors.
Bad harvests in the United States and elsewhere make it impossible to count on the fall in food prices which we expected a few months ago, and oil prices have risen yet again in recent weeks. I do not need to mention the continuing rise in the world price of sugar, which has already increased six-fold in the last 12 months. Nevertheless the rôle of import prices in generating inflation in Britain is likely to be a good deal smaller next year than over the last 12 months. The most important single factor in determining the rate of inflation will then be the rate at which earnings rise. If settlements can be confined to what is needed to cover the increase in the cost of living, we can reasonably expect to see a decrease in the rate of inflation in the coming year.
Otherwise we risk losing our ability to compete in foreign markets and to protect the weaker members of the community. Moreover, if wages rise beyond the limits set by the TUC, the Government will be compelled to take offsetting steps to curtail demand. And the effects on the financial position of the company sector are bound to lead to unemployment, as Mr. Jack Jones pointed out in a powerful speech the other day.
In the last eight months the Government have sought to protect those individuals who are least able to bear the impact of inflation by subsidies on basic foods, by freezing council rents, by selective rate reliefs, by increasing retirement pensions and other social benefits, by raising the tax threshold and by lending £500 million to the building societies. We have not so far taken comparable action to deal with the effects of inflation on industry, whether public or private. I shall address myself to this aspect of the problem when I outline the Budget proposals, but I will deal here with an aspect often neglected—the effect of inflation on the Government accounts as a whole.

PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCE
The House will recall that in the spring I put the public sector borrowing requirement for 1974–75 at £2,733 million. It may be worth mentioning that the borrowing requirement is the balance of two sides of an account each of which runs in aggregate to about £40 billion. Since it is a balancing item, it is inevitable that what are small percentage changes in either side of the revenue and expenditure account can make a very big change in the borrowing requirement.
This year has seen some significant changes on both sides of the account, most of them resulting directly from the effect of inflation on wages, costs and taxes, some from action taken by the Government to cushion the impact of inflation. As I made clear at the time, the July measures increased expenditure and reduced revenue, mainly as a result of the cut in value added tax, by about £340 million. The loan to the building societies may add over £100 million—after repayments—to the requirement this year.
Wage increases and other cost increases have increased public expenditure as outlined in the March Budget in current price terms—but not in volume terms—by over £1,000 million more than the additional yield from taxation which results from inflation. Major parts of this increase have occurred in the expenditures of the local authorities and the National Health Service. Subsidies, largely devoted to reducing prices, have

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increased by nearly £1,100 million, including £300 million for housing subsidies and £550 million for nationalised industries. There were as usual also a multitude of small changes in both directions. The upshot of all these revisions has been to increase the borrowing requirement this year by about £2¾ billion to about £5½ billion.
A great deal of this has of course already come through and has been financed either from the sale of gilt-edged or by borrowing abroad. As a result, despite the growth of the public sector borrowing requirement, the rate of growth of money supply has been kept within strict limits and the inflationary impact of this enlarged borrowing requirement has been contained.
Though a revision of the borrowing requirement to about £5½ billion is a serious matter, it would be wrong to exaggerate its importance. As far as current expenditure is concerned, the public sector is in substantial surplus, receipts exceeding expenditure by over £3,500 million. The borrowing requirement arises because total capital expenditure of the public sector and its lending to others is nearly three times the current surplus. Much of this capital expenditure—about £7 billion in fact—consists of fixed investment by the nationalised industries and other public bodies, and is a real addition to our stock of capital which it is entirely reasonable for the Government to finance in part by borrowing, as private industry does all the time. So although I would certainly be concerned if the borrowing were being made in a way which added to inflation, I can take comfort from the fact that we have been able to accommodate it within the guidelines set for monetary policy.
As the House knows, in the current calendar year the money supply on the broad definition has risen at a rate well below the increase in money GDP, and well under half of the rate of increase in 1973.
I should add, because comparisons are sometimes made between the borrowing requirement in the United Kingdom and the balanced budgets presented in some other European countries, such as France and Germany, that their presentation cannot be directly compared with ours.
Their published budgets place the primary emphasis on the accounts of central government, whereas our public sector borrowing requirement covers also the borrowing of local authorities and nationalised industries. If we were to concentrate on the accounts of central government, we should be showing, before the measure which I am about to announce, a borrowing requirement of about £3·1 billion. But £2·2 billion is for on-lending to local authorities and nationalised industries. The amount which the central government would be borrowing for purposes other than this on-lending would thus only be about £900 million—a small fraction of the figure for the public sector borrowing requirement as presented under our conventions.

THE FORECASTS
I have tried to give the House a comprehensive outline of the situation as it is today and to make the best estimate possible on the evidence now available of the prospects for the immediate future. On this occasion, although it is not normal to do so with an autumn Budget. I am providing the House with a printed statement covering at least some of the ground which is usual in the annual so-called Red Book.
One reason for this break with precedent is that last March I found it impossible to provide any meaningful projection which would extend beyond the end of the current calendar year. I am now making good that deficiency by publishing the best forecast which the Treasury can make of expenditure, imports and gross domestic product—the information contained in table 4 of the last Red Book. This forecast will cover the first half of 1975. So we are now back on course.
Perhaps it would not be out of place for me to say a word here about the status of such forecasts. Like long-term weather forecasts, they are better than nothing. But no one who has held office in the Treasury or, indeed, who has had the job of following Treasury activity from outside will deny that they are subject to wide margins of error.
The numbers contained in the forecasts—specific to ½ per cent. in every case—give a spurious impression of certainty.

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But their origin lies in the extrapolation from a partially known past, through an unknown present, to an unknowable future according to theories about the causal relationships between certain economic variables which are hotly disputed by academic economists, and may well in fact change from country to country or from decade to decade. The current state of our economic knowledge allows of nothing better, but I hope no one will reply on it too much.

MEDIUM-TERM OBJECTIVES
I now turn to the main guidelines which I have set myself for the management of the economy over the next few years since, as I have said, the measures I announced today must be seen as the first stage in implementing a strategy for the medium term.
Let me start with a fact which should neither be ignored nor treated as grounds for complacency. Although we entered the era of the oil crisis with a worse inheritance than most of our competitors, we entered it with better prospects in one key respect. The latest evidence suggests that in three years' time we should be meeting half of our oil requirements from our own national resources beneath the seas around us.
Mrs. Winifred Ewing: Scottish oil.
Mr. Healey: In 1980 we may even have a small surplus to export. So our central problem is to get through the next few years without damage to the fabric of our society and meantime to correct the structural weaknesses in our economy.
Our prime objective must be to make the best and fullest use of the human and material resources we have available. Deliberately to adopt a strategy which requires mass unemployment would be no less an economic than a moral crime. But no-one can claim that we are making the best use of our human and material resources at the moment.
Despite some recent improvements in our relative performance which I have mentioned, Britain's economy is still subject to major weaknesses compared with our competitors in world trade. At no time since the war have we succeeded in
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maintaining an increase in our productivity close to that of most other industrial countries. The consequence has been that although our living standards have steadily improved—and improved faster than they did before the war—we have been slowly sinking back in the international league table.
One of the reasons for our disappointing performance is that by and large we have tended to invest less of our annual output in new capacity than our competitors, and even where we have maintained the same rate of investment we have secured a much smaller return in additional output.
Thus, although earnings in Britain have increased no faster than the international average, our unit labour costs and export prices in sterling terms have increased faster than those of our competitors because our productivity grew so much slower. So the decline in our relative living standards has been accompanied by a failure to achieve a balance in our external payments for any length of time.
I am determined that we shall reverse this trend. This means devoting a greater proportion of our output to exports and investment than in the past—so that, at least in the next few years, the great majority of us cannot expect any appreciable increase in our living standards, and increases in public expenditure will have to be held below the average increases in national output. The limit the Government have set themselves for expansion of public expenditure over the next four years is an average rate of 2¾ per cent. a year in demand terms.
We cannot afford to evade or postpone recognition of this necessity either by letting our trade deficit run on indefinitely or by using resources for personal or public consumption which should go to industrial investment to provide future growth and assure future jobs. This shift of resources into exports and investment is my first priority in economic management.
The second arm of our strategy for making the best use of our resources is to mount a national campaign against waste wherever we can find it. Above all we must adjust our behaviour both public and private to the enormous increase in the cost of energy. Our present pattern

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of prices, subsidies and taxes simply does not fit a world in which the price of imported oil has increased five-fold in less than a year. Moreover, uncertainties in the Middle Eastern situation may persist for many years. It would be dangerous to ignore this aspect of the problem. It will be hard to adjust to a pattern of high-cost energy, but the sooner a start is made the easier we shall find it.
My colleague, the Secretary of State for Energy, and I will be introducing some immediate measures to this end. They will be only the first step. One of our policy objectives must be the elimination of subsidies to the use of energy through artificial prices for the products of the nationalised industries—for example, at the margin electricity is generated entirely from imported oil. It is impossible to justify a policy which actively encourages oil imports to produce electricity at uneconomic prices.
In general we must reduce and eventually remove subsidies of all kinds which distort the relative cost of different forms of energy, and which stimulate wasteful consumption. Higher energy prices will affect some people more than others. Fuel bulks large in old age pensioners' budgets. But the best way to help pensioners is to increase pensions, not to sell fuel to everybody far below its cost.
The need for realistic energy prices is only one part—though at present by far the most important part—of a wider problem. We in Britain cannot ignore the immense changes in world prices which have taken place in recent years and are likely to continue. We must therefore change the pattern of our private and public spending to take account of them. Even though, when we have carried out the necessary structural changes in our economy, it should be possible for us to resume the improvement in our standard of living, the factors which contribute to it will have to be differently proportioned.
In many respects I believe that the new patterns in our spending can in themselves improve our quality of life. The senseless accumulation of material goods of exactly the same type as the Western world has been producing since the war can no longer be regarded as the only guarantee of human happiness or the only measure of economic success.
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Meanwhile, as we are seeking full employment with a better and less wasteful use of our resources, we must continue with the fight against inflation. In the coming year the key to victory lies in adherence to the guidelines for collective bargaining laid down by the TUC. The Government have their responsibility here, not only in fulfilling their undertakings within the social contract, but also in helping to control overall demand in the economy so as to avoid the twin dangers of mass unemployment and overheating. In this field monetary policy has an important rôle.
The fact that in the current year we have kept the growth in money supply well below the growth in GDP should help us in handling our economic problems in the coming months. It will remain our objective in the medium term to restrain inflationary pressures through the monetary system.
Within our overall commitment to fight unemployment and inflation these are three major objectives of our policy in the medium term—to give priority to investment and to the balance of payments over both public expenditure and private consumption; to adjust prices to reflect real costs, especially of imported energy; and to see that inflation is not fuelled by an excessive increase in the money supply. I am certain that the achievement of these objectives is a necessary condition for creating a viable economy.
But it is not a sufficient condition. As we have seen too often in the past, to achieve success we also need the ability to deal with the structural weaknesses in particular parts of our economy. We need the ability for discriminating and selective action.
Nothing has struck me more forcibly during my eight months at the Treasury than the inadequacy of the instruments currently at our disposal for coping with this task and the unsuitability of general fiscal measures for dealing with specific problem areas. For example, all of us have been perplexed for over a year by the simultaneous phenomena of rising unemployment in the country as a whole and severe shortages of labour in key parts of the economy. Even if we ignore the moral obscenity of such a policy, to try to deal with these specific shortages,

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as some people recommend, by depressing the general level of demand and throwing a million people out of work would be like burning down the Houses of Parliament to roast a chicken. We need to develop a labour market policy such as has operated so successfully for many years in Sweden, based on an expansion of our provision for industrial training. Yet in the past we have not even had the information on which to base such a policy. We intend to fill this gap with the help of the Manpower Services Commission and the participation in it of both sides of industry.
Similarly, all the work we have recently done in NEDC—and there is no disagreement between the CBI and TUC on this—shows that the central problem of low productivity growth can be tackled only at the level of firm or factory. I am glad to say that NEDC has now decided to make this the main focus of its work in the period ahead. But the Government have at present far too limited a capability for helping with this problem.
The proposals in the White Paper on the Regeneration of Industry have an essential rôle in this regard. The system of planning agreements will enable us to formalise some ground rules for a relationship between Government and industry which has grown steadily more intimate whichever party is in power. Yet that relationship has so far developed without any clear conception of its general rôle in a mixed economy.
The National Enterprise Board will occupy a central position in ordering the relationship between Government and particular parts of industry which require the backing of public funds. These new instruments of policy and management may not have their full impact for several years—even the necessary legislation will take some months to carry through—but well before then they should be making a significant contribution towards the improvement of our industrial performance. They will also provide powerful support to the Government's continuing efforts to achieve a better use of manpower by the reduction of regional imbalances.
There is a final element in the Government's approach to our economic problems—the social contract. What the Government are trying to do—indeed what the nation must achieve if we are to surmount
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our problems in the difficult years ahead—is to create a new sort of unity among all sections of our people—between Government and both sides of industry, between employers and trade unions, between food producers and consumers in our country.
The politics of confrontation have had their chance. I do not believe that anyone now wishes to return to them. I do not deny the magnitude of this enterprise. In effect we are attempting to change the whole climate in which not just our economy but our society has operated for many generations. But I believe it can be done—indeed, it must be done.
As I have said, this is a task from which no sector of our national life can stand aside. It is not one for Government alone. But so far as the Government are concerned, our rôle is to seek through our actions in the economic and social field to create a degree of confidence in our determination to achieve a fairer balance in our society which will evoke a united and positive response from the British people. Some of us can remember how successfully that response was evoked in war time when, as now, the philosophy of fair shares and equality of sacrifice was the cement of national unity. In their last period of office the Government demonstrated their commitment to the social contract by giving priority to pensions, housing and food subsidies. This time we must give equal priority to the prevention of mass unemployment—for that has become a danger no less real that inflation.

THE COMPANY SECTOR
I believe that the action I took in July and the further measures I will announce this afternoon will ensure that the overall level of demand in the economy will be sufficient to prevent any danger of mass unemployment in the coming year. There is, however, a more immediate and urgent threat to employment in Britain at the moment than inadequate demand. The impact of inflation on the company sector risks forcing thousands of firms to restrict their output and lay off workers in the coming winter not through lack of demand for their products—many have full order books—but simply through lack of working capital. The

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same factor could force some firms into bankruptcy. It is already compelling many of them to cut back on plans for investment to which they were firmly committed only a few months ago.
There are two ways in which inflation has hit the company sector. In the first place, it has made the operation of the price controls far more severe than was originally intended by the last Government when they brought them in. In the second place, it has increased the cost of replacement stocks to a degree which, under the present tax rules, imposes burdens which industry was never meant to carry.
The incidence of inflation on financial viability differs widely from firm to firm. For example, large capital-intensive firms have suffered comparatively little from the impact of wage inflation on the productivity deduction under the Price Code. Similarly, some labour-intensive firms have suffered comparatively little from the increased cost of stock replacement.
In an ideal world, of course, it would be desirable to take full account of individual circumstances and adjust action according to specific needs. When our new system of planning agreements is fully in operation, it will be easier to adopt a selective approach along these lines. But this instrument simply does not exist at all at present. The need to act now is urgent. So we must achieve such discrimination as is possible through the instruments already in our hands.
The House must recognise a fundamental distinction at the outset between two aspects of the problem. The Government have committed themselves in the Queen's Speech, as in the White Paper on the Regeneration of Industry, to a mixed economy in which the private sector is vigorous, alert and profitable. The Government therefore have a duty to see that firms which are alert and vigorous can be profitable as well. But such firms can be profitable only if the system of price control and taxation within which they operate makes this possible. Any adjustments to the system which the Government have to make for this purpose cannot rightly be regarded as State aid.
But there will be other firms whose failure to make profits is no fault of the system within which they operate. It results from their failure to be alert and vigorous. The Government have a responsibility to help such firms only if it is in the nation's interest that they should do so. Whenever it is in the nation's interest that special assistance should be given to particular firms, the nation must have a right to take a share, if it wishes, in the equity of the company—as provided for in the Industry Act and in the proposals for a National Enterprise Board. State aid in this sense should be given only on appropriate conditions.
So far as this sort of Government aid is concerned, I recognise that the current economic climate may increase the number of otherwise viable firms whose problems justify selective assistance under the Industry Act. In that event, the Government will be prepared to make further funds available for dealing with such special cases. Moreover, if a particular part of industry is suffering from a purely temporary lack of demand for its products, I would consider accelerated public purchasing to assist it where this is appropriate.
There is at present a special problem facing firms which make equipment for space heating. Since their case is particularly difficult, and there is some evidence that this would at least help marginally to save energy, I have decided to relax hire-purchase controls on space heating installations. The new terms will be a minimum down payment of 10 per cent. and a maximum repayment period of five years. My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Prices and Consumer Protection is laying the necessary order today and the new terms will take effect from midnight.
As Chancellor of the Exchequer, my main concern at present is not so much with such special cases as with the larger group of firms which are quite capable of operating efficiently and profitably providing their cost environment is manageable; and I intend to take steps to reduce the financial pressures now bearing heavily on these firms so as to avert the real and immediate danger of cuts in investment, stock building or employment. Even here, however, there is scope

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for a degree of selectivity, and I propose to use that to the full.

PRICE CODE
For some months my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Prices and Consumer Protection has been conducting a thorough review of the Price Code. She will be publishing later today a consultative document which will set out the conclusions she has reached and the proposals she wishes to make for amending the code. The House will, therefore, be able to discuss these proposals in the course of the economic debate of the next few days in the context of the other proposals I am making in this Budget. There will also be a further period of consultation on these proposals with representatives of industry and others before they are put into effect, and both Houses will have an opportunity to discuss them again in their final form on motions for affirmative resolutions.
Representations were made both to me and to my right hon. Friend that the present price control should be completely abolished or radically narrowed in scope. We do not believe that that is either necessary or right, or that it would be consistent with the social contract in present circumstances. But we do believe that there is room for some changes in the present Price Code providing they are designed to meet the real problems of specific sectors of industry and are compatible with a strict control of price increases.
My right hon. Friend's most important proposals on the code are tailored to the situations which make amendment necessary and justified. First, the present level of the productivity deduction, which has to be made from the labour cost increases of manufacturing firms when settling price increases, does not take sufficient account of the rate of inflation since it was first established. It was introduced by the previous Government at 50 per cent. when pay increases were smaller and output could grow faster for the home market.
We therefore propose to set the new level of productivity deduction for firms with about the average proportion of labour costs in their total costs at 20
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per cent. But we also propose to relate the amount of deduction more closely than hitherto to the proportions of labour costs incurred by specific firms. For example, firms where labour costs are between 15 per cent. and 35 per cent. of total costs will be subject to the 20 per cent. rate, but a firm with 80 per cent. labour costs will be subject only to a 9 per cent. rate, while for one with 5 per cent. labour costs the rate will be 35 per cent.
Next, my right hon. Friend is proposing a new relief in the price control related directly to firms' investment plans. Companies will be permitted to recoup in increased prices over a period of a year up to 17½ per cent. of the cost of their programmes of investment for that year in plant and machinery and in industrial buildings. There will be arrangements for ensuring that anything added to prices under this relief is in fact spent on investment, including a review of the position after six months with arrangements for refusing further price increases if the programme is underspent. There is here a real incentive to companies to maintain and increase their investment.
My right hon. Friend will also be making proposals to clarify, and within strict limits to improve, the safeguards in the code in cases where the profit margins of manufacturers have been reduced well below the levels of April 1973. There will also be improved safeguards for distributors.
This group of measures on the Price Code will allow some rebuilding of margins to firms which maintain substantial investment programmes, and for others will limit or halt erosion of profit margins. All this will, however, be within the framework of a continuing firm price control.
The effect on the Index of Retail Prices is difficult to estimate. It depends on the effects of competition, the interaction of the reliefs, and so on, and it will develop gradually as the months pass by.
The House should realise that if the Secretary of State had not proposed to make these changes in the Price Code now, most firms would probably have been free to pass on all their cost increases in prices by the middle of next year, because they would have reached the point at which they could take advantage of the existing profit safe

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guards. In the meantime, however, prices would have been held down, but at the cost of further pressure on their profit margins.
If we compare the effect of the changes in the Price Code with what might have happened otherwise, the effect on the Index of Retail prices should be something under 1½ per cent., all by the middle of next year. However, if we compare the effect with the situation under present profit margins—which is what most people do—it should be under 1 per cent.

CORPORATE TAXATION
I now turn to the burden thrown on to industry by the effect of inflation on the operation of corporation tax. This, too, requires immediate action of a selective kind. I have not, therefore, felt able to accept some of the proposals which might have been put to me. Some have suggested a massive cut in the rate of corporation tax. I see no case for making such a cut, since it would give the same relief to every company irrespective of the burden inflation has imposed upon it.
I have also been asked to cancel the advance corporation tax supplement. The House will remember that this is an additional payment to be made by companies when they pay dividends, which will be set off against their tax bills in 1976. The greatest benefit of repaying the supplement a year early would go to those who have paid the largest dividends this year, and they are unlikely to be the companies which most need help. We need an instrument more directly related to the problem.
Let me first say how I see the problem. Under the ordinary rules of accounting, the profit attributable to a particular year of a continuing business is arrived at after deducting from the excess of sales over outlays the value of the opening stock and adding the value of the closing stock. When stocks are valued at the actual cost of acquisition this method gives the same result as if the profit made on each item of sale were computed separately—which, of course, would be a difficult thing to do in the case of most businesses.
What happens in times of inflation is that the cost value of the closing stock
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becomes much larger than that of the opening stock because the stock is replaced at higher prices. This causes an acute liquidity problem, a shortage of cash for the payment of wages, materials and other expenses. The problem would exist even in the absence of taxation.
Mr. Hugh Fraser: That was true in February.
Mr. Healey: It was true last year.
Mr. Fraser: It was also true in March.
Mr. Healey: I shall try to confine myself to my speech, tempted as I am to respond to interventions. I shall leave that to the greater freedom which I shall enjoy when winding up the debate on Thursday.
But the need to pay tax on the part of the profit which does not accrue in cash or receivables but is tied up in stocks makes it much greater.
This problem has become so urgent during the present year that I am persuaded that industry needs a substantial immediate improvement of its liquidity through the deferment of tax on that part of the profit which corresponds to the abnormal increase in the value of stock and work in progress.
I therefore propose that for tax purposes companies should have the right to reduce the closing valuation of their stocks and work in progress for the accounting period which ended in the financial year 1973–74—on which their current tax bills are based—by an amount by which the increase in the book value of stocks and work in progress exceeds 10 per cent. of the trading profits of the business in the same accounting year. [Laughter.] In other words, for the benefit of those who have not had as much time as I to study the problem, the maximum profit represented by the increase in the value of stocks on which tax will be payable this year will be limited to 10 per cent. of the trading profit.
The figure of 10 per cent. was chosen because it broadly corresponds to the proportion of profits which is attributable to the increase in the value of stocks for an average of companies in a normal year.
Since the closing stock of one accounting period normally becomes the opening
* See col. 472

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stock for the next period, this adjustment means a postponement of tax liability, and not an exemption. If no further steps were taken, the tax forgone this year would automatically be clawed back in the following year. But this is, of course, not in contemplation. Indeed, the need for deferring tax in 1975–76 on abnormal stock appreciation arising in the present year's profits is likely to be even greater. As honourable Members know, there is now sitting the Committee on Accounting for Inflation under the chairmanship of Mr. Francis Sandilands. I hope that when I come to decide what action to take next year I shall have the benefit of the Committee's recommendations before me.
For practical reasons, we cannot immediately deal with the whole range of companies, and the immediate relief will be confined to those who have a closing stock of at least £25,000. For the same reason, it is not possible to include individual traders or partnerships in this emergency relief. However, I intend next year's relief to extend to all traders, whether companies or unincorporated businesses.
In deciding how that further relief is to apply to those traders who, for practical reasons, will not benefit from my present proposals, I will take into account the fact that their relief will cover two years' trading and that they will have had to wait a year for it. This is a bankable assurance and should be treated as such.
I have also another, but minor, relief for industry. As from today I propose to increase from 40 per cent. to 50 per cent. the initial allowance given for industrial buildings. I hope that this will be some encouragement to companies to modernise their buildings and will be of some assistance to the construction industry. My measures in September showed that I am well aware of the current problems of the construction industry. I will watch carefully to see whether further action is appropriate.
Broadly speaking, the effect of the changes in the Price Code will be to raise the current profitability of industrial and commercial companies in 1975 by some £800 million compared with what it would be with present profit margins. The effect of the changes in corporate taxation will be to improve company
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liquidity by nearly £800 million in the coming winter.

COMPANY FINANCE
Together these measures will, I believe, restore to industry the confidence needed to sustain the output and investment on which full employment depends. They should provide companies with the will to maintain and expand their capacity. This is an essential condition if investment is to be encouraged and jobs protected.
But there is another essential condition—that companies should have adequate access to credit and capital funds.
The Price Code and tax proposals will themselves ease the financial position of companies in two ways. In addition to the direct effect on company liquidity of the measures which I outlined, there are also indirect effects in that the improvement in liquidity improves credit-worthiness, so that companies are more ready to borrow, and banks to lend, than they were before.
The banks will, in fact, have a crucial rôle to play in the coming months, and I know they fully appreciate their responsibilities. It is essential that they should continue to give highest priority to industry, and that lending for personal consumption, financial transactions and property companies should take second place. With my approval, the Governor of the Bank of England is writing to all banks and finance houses reminding them of these priorities.
The monetary authorities for their part will seek to ensure that the banks are in a position to meet these priorities. They will be closely monitoring the reserve asset position of the banks to ensure that, consistently with our other monetary objectives, the lending capacity of the banks is not unduly constrained.
The Governor is also today announcing the terms on which the scheme of supplementary special deposits will be rolled forward for a further period. Broadly, these will extend the guideline for interest-bearing liabilities for a further six months at the same rate of growth as in the past. These terms are designed to provide adequately for the needs of industry without allowing the money supply to grow at a rate which would add to inflationary pressures.
I judge that with the help of this measure there will be sufficient direct bank finance for industry. But bank lending is primarily short term and there is also likely to be a need for medium-term finance, at least until the capital market has recovered.
I am glad to be able to tell the House that the Governor of the Bank of England has arranged that the Bank and the London and Scottish Clearing Banks should expand very substantially the resources of the Industrial and Commercial Finance Corporation and the Finance Corporation for Industry, now amalgamated under the name Finance for Industry, a body in which they are joint shareholders. The Governor has also obtained assurances from a wide range of financial institutions that they are prepared to support this initiative by taking up periodic issues of marketable stock of FFI. This should make available medium-term funds for productive investment at commercial rates by British industry up to an amount of £1,000 million over a period of two years or so.
This is essentially an extension of facilities already available under normal commercial arrangements through the private banking system. It does not, of course, in any way pre-empt decisions the Government may take to establish new facilities for financial companies on different terms in the context of its proposals for the regeneration of British industry. I am grateful to all concerned. The Bank of England will be putting out more details in a separate announcement.
To ensure that adequate funds are available for these purposes and that the banks are able to play their full role, it is desirable that the capital bases of the banks should expand along with the increase in their total liabilities. I am therefore proposing to release the banks from their voluntary undertaking to forgo interest on a proportion of their special deposits. This will assist them to increase their reserves and so add to the capital base on which the level of their lending depends.
I believe that the measures I have just announced to help company profitability, liquidity and finance will ensure that the private sector will be able to play its full rôle in our mixed economy.

NATIONALISED INDUSTRY PRICES
I turn now to the public sector of industry. In my first Budget speech I referred to price increases by the nationalised industries which were expected to cut back to a more acceptable level the massive bill for Government subsidies which we inherited. In the event, our expectations have been only partly fulfilled: revenue support for the nationalised industries as a whole is now running at over £1,000 million a year, as I said just now.
These subsidies are of two sorts. First, there is help for continuing expenditure which is necessary for primarily social reasons—mainly, but not exclusively, in support of the railways. The remainder is compensation for price restraint. It is the escalation in this latter type of subsidy which we set out to reverse and, since our initial attempt has not fully achieved its purpose, we must continue a sustained assault on the problem until it has finally disappeared. In particular, as my predecessor fully recognised, to provide large subsidies for the prices of energy runs completely counter to our national objectives on energy conservation and energy policy generally.
On the other hand, experience shows that, after these prices have been held far below their true cost for a period of several years, it is impossible to achieve a realistic level all at once. But I have set it as my objective to phase out these subsidies completely as fast as possible. I cannot now anticipate specific measures which will be needed. These will depend on future movements of labour and material costs and be in large part for the industries themselves, subject of course to the jurisdiction of the Price Commission and the Ministers concerned. It will be painful and disagreeable to carry this policy through, even step by step, but I believe that the future health and efficiency of the public sector depends on our success.

ENERGY CONSERVATION
This pricing policy will form one feature of a comprehensive programme of measures for conserving energy and assisting the balance of payments by that means.
My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Energy hopes to make a statement on other aspects of this programme before the end of the month. Meanwhile, I have considered whether there are any steps which I can take to promote the saving of energy in industry. There are already generous tax allowances for expenditure on plant and machinery in the form of 100 per cent. first-year allowance. But I propose now to raise the initial allowance for expenditure on the insulation of industrial buildings from the present 40 per cent. to 100 per cent.
The price of petrol in Britain, though it has already risen sharply in the last twelve months, is nevertheless below that in other European countries. I believe it is right to consider the price of petrol as a means of discouraging its wasteful use—
Mr. F. A. Burden: Rationing by the purse.
Mr. Healey: Accordingly I intend that the rate of VAT chargeable on petrol shall be increased. I have chosen to use VAT rather than the revenue duty on oil since this will ensure that the increased tax does not in general add to industrial costs and give a further upwards push to prices in the shops. It will also not increase fares on public transport. The normal VAT deduction procedure will apply to the new rate and accordingly industrial concerns registered for the tax will not be affected by the increase. Some small undertakings not required to be registered for VAT may find the increased rate on their purchases of petrol a particular burden, but they can of course apply if they so wish for voluntary registration.
The new rate will apply to petrol but not to derv or to liquified petroleum gas used as road fuel. The exclusion of derv from the increase will minimise the number of small undertakings who may have to consider voluntary registration. Moreover, diesel engines are more efficient in their use of energy than the petrol engines now generally available. I should make clear that if my proposed treatment of liquified petroleum gas should result in conversion to gas fuelling by many private motorists, I shall have to review the situation. The new rate on petrol will come into operation next Monday—at 25 per cent. It is esimated that it will yield
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in addition about £200 million in a full year and add about 0·55 per cent. to the RPI—
An Hon. Member: How much on a gallon?
Mr. Healey: That depends on the grade of petrol.
These necessary measures for conserving energy make it more than ever essential to ensure that the British people receive their proper share of the profits from the oil off our own shores. There will be legislation in a separate Bill entitled the Oil Taxation Bill to impose the new tax on the profits of the oil companies from the Continental Shelf, which was foreshadowed in the White Paper presented on 11th July 1974 by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Energy.
The rules of the new tax, which will apply to deliveries of oil and gas after today, will be set out in the Bill; the rate will be determined by Parliament in the 1975 Finance Bill. My right hon. Friend the Paymaster-General will describe the tax and the associated measures affecting the companies' corporation tax liabilities in more detail in this debate tomorrow.
In one way or another, the measures I have described so far are designed to operate directly on investment and the balance of payments—which it must be the first priority of our economic strategy to improve.

PUBLIC EXPENDITURE
As I have said, the priority we must give to investment and the balance of payments has important implications both for private consumption and for public expenditure. We have therefore been re-assessing all our public expenditure programmes to achieve two main aims. First, to establish firm control over the demand on resources of the public sector as a whole so as to make sure that the programmes do not increase in demand terms by more than 2¾ per cent. a year on average over the next four years. Second, to achieve the right balance within the programmes between economic and social needs. The review therefore embraces defence, subsidies of all kinds, housing and other

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social and environmental services, and support and assistance to industry and agriculture.
The House will as usual receive details of our decisions in the Estimates and the White Paper on Public Expenditure, but I can give some general information now. As regards defence, immediately after taking office last March we began a thorough and wide-ranging review of our commitments and capabilities. This has made considerable progress. We expect to be able to make a further announcement to the House within the next few weeks and to begin consultations with our allies.
We have faced a special problem over the expenditure of local authorities. This accounts for around 30 per cent. of total public expenditure; their current spending alone accounts for 20 per cent. of the total.
The Government are at present discussing with the representatives of the local authorities the level of their current expenditure for the coming year, 1975–76, and the extent to which this is to be financed out of the rates, on the one hand, and rate support grant, on the other. I do not want to anticipate the outcome of the discussions but I can say this: some increase in the rates is inevitable. It will probably be substantial but it can be kept within bounds.
If this is to be achieved, it will require action from both central and local government. Obviously, cost inflation has played its part. But on top of this, in each of the three years since 1971–72 the current expenditure of the local authorities has been going up by 7 per cent. to 8 per cent. in real terms—that is, over and above cost increases. And that is for the last three years.
No matter how much we would like to see a further development of standards and services, a rate of increase which so far outstrips the growth in national resources cannot go on indefinitely. If the Government are to help in moderating the rate increases for the coming year the councils will have to play their part. They must limit the rise in their expenditure to what is absolutely inescapable, and in particular they must rule out a further expansion of their staff such as
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has been taking place on a major scale in the last few years.
The Government must make two main contributions to the social contract in the field of public expenditure—housing, where they will continue to give top priority to making up the ground lost between 1970 and 1974, and the provision of help for those who are least able to withstand the impact of inflation—above all, pensioners and familier with young children, the groups among whom poverty is to be found on the widest and most tragic scale. Full details of our social security proposals will be announced by my right hon. Friend tomorrow. Meanwhile the House will wish to know the main features of the further improvements we propose to make.
Less than four months ago, we increased pensions by almost 30 per cent., to their present level of £10 and £16 a week—the biggest increase in history. The Pensioners' Payments Bill now before Parliament also provides for a Christmas bonus of £10 to be paid later this month. We are statutorily required to make a further general uprating of pensions and related benefits not later than July 1975. But in view of the present rate of inflation, we propose to bring the next up-rating forward to early in April 1975. The increase proposed in the weekly rates for pensions and other long-term benefits is of £1·60 and £2·50 to £11·60 and £18·50 for the single and married rates respectively, and in short-term benefits of £1·20 single and £2 married to £9·80 and £15·90 respectively. These and related improvements will distribute to the beneficiaries, in 1975–76, about £815 million on account of national insurance benefits and about £110 million in addition for benefits which are wholly financed by Votes.
As to financing, I expect that the buoyancy of revenue from national insurance contributions, including the Treasury contribution, at the fully earnings-related rates, which under the Social Security Amendment Bill now before Parliament will apply from April 1975, will be fully sufficient to cover the cost of the national insurance element of this uprating. It is not therefore proposed to alter these rates.
The interval between this and the previous uprating last July will be about

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8½ months, in recognition, as I have said, of the exceptionally high rate of inflation which we have been experiencing. As inflation is brought under control, we intended to move to an annual cycle of upratings. To this end, and bearing in mind that the late autumn is generally accepted as the best time at which to uprate benefits, we are planning to make a further uprating in December 1975. It is of course not possible at this stage to say what the amount or cost would be.
As regards support for families, there has been no change in family allowances since they were last increased by a Labour Government in 1968. An increase is long overdue. We are committed to extending family allowances to first children through a new scheme of child cash allowances, as soon as resources and the practicalities of administration allow. But we cannot wait till then before doing anything for families. We therefore now propose to increase the rate of family allowances from April 1975 to £1·50 a week—that is, an increase of 60p on the present rate of 90p for second children and of 50p on that of £1·00 for third and subsequent children. The increase will add to expenditure in 1975–76 by about £205 million. The increase in the allowances will be subject to normal tax only.
The increase in 1968 was fully clawed back from all those liable to standard rate tax. I have considered whether to apply claw-back on this occasion also but have decided against. To do so would mean that any family with an income already subject to tax would receive no net benefit, and it would also mean a sharp reduction in tax thresholds for families with two or more children. I appreciate that my honourable Friends would have liked a larger increase, but I hope this will be considered not unreasonable in current economic circumstances.
The full figures for all the expenditure programmes will be given in the usual annual White Paper early in the New Year.

PERSONAL TAXATION
We cannot give adequate priority to investment and exports and at the same time maintain a limited but real growth in public expenditure unless private con
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sumption is held at existing levels for the great mass of the population. There must be room for those at the bottom to see their living standards rise.
This means sacrifices for those at the upper end of the scale. The main instrument for achieving this necessary redistribution of wealth and income is our system of personal taxation. I do not intend to introduce legislation this autumn to deal with those issues; the time for dealing with them will be in my spring Budget. However, I intend to restore the proposal I made in my first Budget to bring down the starting point of the investment income surcharge from £2,000 to £1,000, or £1,500 for the over-65s. The House rejected that proposal in the summer, but I believe that it will now recognise that the burden of personal tax should fall that much more heavily on investment income than on income which is earned by current effort.
I am well aware—and the TUC and others would not allow me to forget it if I were not—that inflation reduces the real value of tax allowances and tax thresholds expressed in money terms. In general, however, I shall be reviewing these allowances in my spring budget.
But there are two exceptions. The first concerns tax relief for the elderly. People over 65 have for many years started paying tax at a higher level of income than those under 65, and it has become the practice to move this starting point up in step with increases in the national insurance retirement pension. The present age exemption limits, as they are called, now stand at £810 and £1,170 respectively for single and married people.
Having regard to the pension increases which I have announced, I propose to raise the starting points for the over 65s to £950 and £1,425, for 1975–76. I shall do this by converting the age exemption into a new tax allowance, to be called age allowance, for elderly people with modest incomes. This will mean an end to the present rule under which, where an elderly person's income exceeds the age exemption limit, the benefit of the higher starting point begins to be withdrawn immediately.
Under my proposals, the higher starting points I have mentioned will be turned into higher tax allowances for all elderly people over 65, except where their

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total income exceeds £3,000: above £3,000, the extra allowance will be withdrawn as it is now, by £2 for every £3 of the excess.
I believe all Members of the House on both sides will know how much this concession will be welcomed by elderly people, who find the present system complicated and confusing. The additional cost of the new age allowance compared with present arrangements will be £220 million in 1975–76 and £285 million in a full year.
We have also carried out the commitment made by my hon. Friend the Chief Secretary to review the amount of the blind allowance for 1975–76. I propose to increase this allowance from its present figure of £130 to £180.
I am making these announcements now, although they will be effective for the coming tax year 1975–76, for administrative reasons. It will mean that the Inland Revenue will be able to carry out the necessary coding preparations for next year, and I am authorising it to go ahead with these on the basis of the figures which I have just given to the House. But the legislation will, as I have indicated, be included in next year's Finance Bill.

TAX REFORM
In the harsher new climate into which the world has moved, when the increase in real earnings must be severely confined, I believe that the whole nation will see it is essential to achieve a fairer distribution of wealth as well as income, and to block the loopholes which enable so many of the richest in our society to escape their proper share of sacrifices which the poor cannot avoid.
I told the House in March that I proposed to ensure that the estate duty fulfilled the function first laid down for it 80 years ago, and to introduce an annual tax on large concentrations of personal wealth. In August I published a Green Paper on the wealth tax and a White Paper which outlined my proposals to replace the estate duty by a tax on all gratuitous transfers of capital both by way of lifetime gift and on death. The necessary legislation for the latter will be included in this Finance Bill.
The new capital transfer tax will replace the estate duty on deaths after the Bill has received Royal Assent, although, as I have already announced, it will apply to all lifetime gifts made on or after 26th March this year. The rates of tax will be those set out in the White Paper.
These rates will apply also for the estate duty chargeable in respect of deaths after today, as will the exemption for transfers between husband and wife and the withdrawal of the special reliefs for agricultural land, business assets and woodlands.
I have, however, decided to ease the burden which would fall on agricultural land which is owned and farmed by full-time working farmers if capital transfer tax were charged in full on the present exceptionally high capital values of agricultural land.
The value of his farm land transferred by a fulltime working farmer in his lifetime or on his death may be reduced to 20 times the gross rent obtainable on an open market letting of the land. This will be subject to a cumulative maximum of 1,000 acres in extent or £1¼ million in value, whichever is the more favourable. This relief will apply also for estate duty chargeable on deaths after today.
I have considered whether some new relief should be introduced for business men to replace the old 45 per cent. reduction in the estate duty chargeable on their assets, but have concluded that the case has not been made out for any relief except in one particular.
The estate duty on land and interests in businesses may now be paid by instalments spread over eight years, subject to payment of interest of, at present, 3 per cent. This arrangement will be continued under the capital transfer tax, except that the time has come to charge a more realistic rate of interest; this will in general be 6 per cent. on tax charged on death and 9 per cent. on tax charged on lifetime gifts. But in the case of an interest in a business, including substantial shareholdings in unquoted companies, the tax on the first £250,000 in value will be payable by instalments free of interest. The same arrangement will apply for the estate duty on deaths after today.
Because the new tax will apply to all transfers of capital and will not be open

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to avoidance by gifts made in life, it will in the long term produce a higher yield than the existing estate duty despite the reduction in the rates and the exemption for transfers between husband and wife. But in the early years there will be a somewhat lower yield. The yield will be reduced by £15 million this year and £25 million in 1975–76.
I confess that I have been somewhat shocked by the volume and intensity of protest generated in some quarters by my determination to ensure that the estate duty is no longer a voluntary and avoidable tax. I should have expected the moderation of my proposals, particularly the exemption for transfers between husband and wife, to have brought me gratitude rather than abuse from those concerned. The House will form its own judgment. For myself, I can construe the current protests only as testimony to the scale on which estate duty has hitherto been avoided, and as a tribute to the efficacy of my proposals for ending this avoidance.
No doubt, there will be a similar storm of protest about my proposals for a tax on wealth; indeed, it has already begun. But I look forward, as I am sure will at least my hon. Friends, to the discussion which will shortly take place in the Select Committee which will soon be considering the wealth tax.
Perhaps this is a convenient point at which to deal with two matters which are not wholly unrelated to the social contract and the problems of the distribution of wealth.
First, I must refer briefly to our proposal for imposing a new tax on land, payable when development value is realised. The introduction of this "development land tax" is an essential step towards achieving our aim of bringing land needed for development into community ownership. As has already been announced, the tax will be at a flat rate, initially 80 per cent. It will be outside the general arrangements for the taxation of companies and individuals and will apply both to those who trade in land and those who do not. The legislation will inevitably be complex, and I have decided that it should be contained in a separate Bill, which will be introduced in the course of the present Session. The general form of the tax will be as outlined in the White
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Paper on Land, Cmnd. 5730, but it is intended to issue a more detailed statement as soon as possible.
Second, I intend to reintroduce a provision to restore the provident benefit tax relief to those trade unions which ceased to qualify for the exemption as a result of the Industrial Relations Act 1971. Nothing was said in the House earlier in the year to alter my conviction that this was a relief which should never have been tampered with. I accept that the Government of the day did not intend that it should happen and, indeed, genuinely thought that they had found a way of preserving tax relief for the union provident funds. In the last Finance Act we put the position right for the future. Now we shall put it right for the period from 6th April 1972 to the commencement of the Trade Union and Labour Relations Act 1974.

THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE BUDGET
Let me sum up the economic effects of this Budget. To start with, I have taken action which was necessary and urgent to improve the financial position of industrial and commercial companies. Taking together the relaxations of the Price Code and the relief of corporation tax on stocks, I reckon that the financial benefit to companies next year will be about Ell billion. This is a very substantial improvement and should go a long way to prevent the closures, redundancies and investment cuts which have been threatening to fall upon us.
Given this relief to companies, together with the other changes which I have announced, the growth of total output in the period ahead is forecast at about 2 per cent. per annum. This reflects a slight weakening in the pressure of demand and would mean some increase in unemployment. Much will depend on the development of the world economic situation, on which there is a great deal of uncertainty, but our present forecast, which includes the effects of the present Budget, predicts that the rise in unemployment will be modest and its level will remain well below 1 million.
The relaxation of the Price Code and the increase in the value added tax on petrol will, of course, raise the retail price index: the effect by the middle of next

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year I estimate at a little over 1½ per cent. If we are to correct the large structural distortions which have affected our economy over recent years, with too much going into consumption and too little into investment and exports, it is inevitable that from time to time steps should be taken which will raise consumer prices. There is no escape from this. But what can be done is to protect those consumers who are least able to bear the burden. This I have tried to do through the increase in family allowances, the April uprating of social security benefits and the new tax allowance for the elderly.
Finally, there is the effect of all this on the borrowing requirement. The net effect of the measures which I have announced today is to increase the borrowing requirement by about £800 million, the whole of which will be matched by a corresponding improvement in the financial position of the company sector. It cannot, therefore, be judged in the same way as an increase in the public sector deficit which is undertaken in order to stimulate consumption. In this instance, the public sector will have to borrow more in order to reduce the borrowing needs of industry to tolerable limits, in order to enable industry to continue to perform its functions in the normal manner.
In saying this, I do not wish to disguise the fact that I regard the resulting public sector borrowing requirement—£6,300 million—as a disturbingly large figure which one would never accept in normal circumstances. But in present circumstances, if I had made an attempt to close it, whether by cuts in public expenditure or by increases in taxation, the result could only have been a large fall in our national output and a massive increase in unemployment. This is because, for reasons which I explained earlier today, a large balance of payments deficit is inevitable in the present circumstances, and a large public sector deficit is the inevitable counterpart of this, given that the private sector as a whole cannot be in substantial deficit without grave consequences.
What matters is that a public sector deficit should not be allowed to become so large that its very existence causes a pressure on resources, a further deterioration in our balance of payments and a dis-
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proportionate increase in the money supply. I see no reason why the public sector deficit this year should involve any of these consequences. If our policies as a whole represent a reasonable response to our present situation, as I believe they do, it is something we just have to accept.
I think that the House will admit that there has rarely been a time when it was more difficult for a British Chancellor to achieve a proper balance between the five objectives he must always seek to reconcile—full employment, economic growth, social justice, stable prices and external equilibrium. Some may feel that the full scale of the crisis should have been brought home to people more directly by swingeing increases in taxation or disruptive cuts in public expenditure. If so, I hope that they will tell us during the debate. But this could only bring mass unemployment in its train, with political, economic and social consequences I hope none of us would welcome.
Indeed, in other circumstances the massive deflationary effect of the oil price increase and the fall-off in world trade might have made more reflation desirable. As it is, the expected short-fall in demand compared with the capacity of our economy gives us all the room we can use for a substantial growth of exports. Again, the increase in prices which must result from our reaction to the world situation might justify more help to the worse off if the consequent increases in taxation were not incompatible with a voluntary policy for incomes.
As it is, I have struck a balance which I dare say will satisfy nobody completely. But I believe that in our present situation it provides a sound foundation for that fundamental reconstruction of our economy which we need. In that sense, I ask the House to approve it as a basis on which all sections of our people can combine in a united national effort to restore Britain to the place she should have in the world.
Mr. Deputy Speaker (Mr. George Thomas): Before I propose the Question on the first motion, I remind the House that the debate today and on succeeding days takes place on this motion. The Questions on the b remaining motions will not be put until the conclusion of the debate on Thursday.

BUDGET RESOLUTIONS AND ECONOMIC SITUATION

  CAPITAL TRANSFER TAX
  Motion made, and Question proposed,
  That a tax be imposed on the value transferred by certain dispositions made on or after 26th March 1974 and on the value treated on death and in certain other circumstances as so transferred.—[Mr. Healey.]
  5.15 p.m.
  Mr. Edward Heath: It is always the privilege of the Leader of the Opposition after a Budget Statement to offer the congratulations of the House to the Chancellor of the Exchequer on the manner in which he has delivered it. This occasion is no exception to the rule. Indeed I add a particular congratulation, because I know, as some others may know, that the Chancellor has been suffering from a difficult throat—if I may put it that way. It is therefore all the more commendable that he should have given us a statement lasting an hour and three-quarters and that his endurance should have held up to the end. I therefore offer the Chancellor the congratulations of the House, and I should also like to offer some preliminary remarks to the House on what he has said.
  Some outside observers have described this as the gravest Budget to be delivered since the war. I certainly agree that it is delivered in the gravest situation that we have had since the war, a situation that many of us have never ceased to emphasise. The Chancellor touched upon the world dangers at the beginning of his statement. He is, of course, absolutely right. The danger is the challenge to the Western world in the adjustment to the fivefold increase in oil prices over such a short time. There are, too, the internal challenges.
  But what a difference there is in the statement made by the Chancellor today and his statement only nine months ago in March. What a difference between his statement in the House last July, the pre-election Budget Statement and the statement today, the post-election Budget Statement. That difference is now clear for all to see. The plain fact is that he has reversed so many of the policies that he produced last March, so many of the policies that he changed again last July
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  for electoral purposes, and is now forced to change them again to deal with the economic situation.
  This is the third Budget in nine months. I said at the time the right hon. Gentleman produced his first Budget that I should never criticise a Chancellor who produced a new Statement to deal with changing circumstances. That is not what he has done today. He has produced a Budget Statement to deal with the damage that he caused last March. That is what the Chancellor has done.
  What is more, the right hon. Gentleman has reversed the attitude he adopted in his July statement and on which he fought the election. He never fought the election on what he has put forward today on taxation, and Labour Members know that full well. One can see that from their response to the Chancellor's speech. The Chancellor did not fight the election on the additional taxation that he has proposed; not at all. Indeed, the Chancellor has done the same as his predecessor, the present Foreign Secretary, who fought the 1966 election on the basis of no increase in taxation and then a month later imposed the selective employment tax and increased taxation by £250 million.
  What if the Chancellor had gone to the country and said that he intended to increase taxation? What if he had gone to the country and said "We are going to cut back local government expenditure", instead of spending the whole campaign criticising his opponents on the alleged ground that they were going to cut back local government expenditure? What if he had gone to the country and told people about the increased taxes that he has just enumerated and added "Of course there is no possibility of avoiding increases in prices deliberately created by the Government".
  Let us contrast that with telling the country that inflation was now down to 8·4 per cent. That figure was the Chancellor's responsibility in the General Election. It was never down to 8·4 per cent. It was deceit by the Chancellor—statistical deceit—and now it has been compounded by a deliberate increase in prices by the Government. The Chancellor says "Of course there is no way of avoiding it. We are doing it quite deliberately."

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  What is more, the Chancellor is putting up nationalised industry prices, but he has not told us by how much they are going up, when they are going up or what will be the impact on the retail prices index when they are put up. How, then, can we form any judgment of the extent to which the improvement in social service benefits will be able to cope with the increased rate of inflation, with the increased rate of the RPI, which the right hon. Gentleman has already given us, and with the increases in nationalised industry prices?
  The Chancellor was not even prepared to tell us what the increase in the price of any grade of petrol will be. Can he not face the House or even tell his own back benchers? Very well then. What is it going to be, 10p or 12p? Why does not the Chancellor tell us how much the price is going up for each grade of petrol so that the country can know now? He has neither the guts nor the honesty to tell the House what the position is.
  Mr. Healey: I do not think that it would be right for me to interrupt the right hon. Gentleman's first electioneering speech.
  Mr. Heath: Does not the Chancellor know what he has done to the price of petrol?
  Mr. Healey: Of course I do.
  Mr. Heath: If he knows, why is he not prepared to tell the House? Why is he not prepared to tell the country. Why is he not prepared to tell the Press, so that the information can be published tonight? What a disgraceful performance by a Chancellor of the Exchequer.
  Mr. Cranley Onslow: On a point of order, Mr. Deputy Speaker. As the Chancellor has said that he does know what the price increases will be, would he care, if he will not reveal them, to justify to the House the fact that he refuses to—
  Mr. Deputy Speaker: Order. The hon. Gentleman knows that is not a point of order.
  Mr. Heath: I am sorry, Mr. Deputy Speaker, that the Chancellor is unable to inform you of the implications of his Budget or about what measures he has actually taken.
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  I want to say to the Chancellor of the Exchequer that, although he gave us an account of what has been happening to the economy in the past, he did not give us an account of what he foresaw happening in the future. Indeed, I believe that he was extremely optimistic about the indicators in the economy at this moment. That is only in keeping with his attitude all through the election campaign.
  However, in one sentence one point did emerge, and it is of the greatest importance if the Chancellor means it. He said that earnings under the social contract must do no more than keep pace with the cost of living. If they do that, he will certainly not have inflation down next year to the 10 per cent. that he has hitherto claimed. It will be nothing like it. It will still be much nearer 20 per cent., and the consequences of that for this country are enormous.
  However, the Chancellor went on to say that if earnings did not keep within that range—in other words, if the social contract were broken, as it is constantly being broken today—the only alternative was to cut back demand and create unemployment. That is the most significant sentence in the whole Budget Statement today, because it shows that when we ask the Government what is their alternative to the social contract, or when the Foreign Secretary says "It is the social contract or nothing", what the Chancellor of the Exchequer believes is that, as the social contract has failed, his only purpose in future is to cut back demand and deliberately create unemployment. That is the only interpretation that can be put upon his statement today.
  I want to mention these indicators because the Government indicators already show that industrial production is in fact lower than it was a year ago. Most worrying of all is the indicator of wholesale prices in October, which has just been published, showing that the cost of material and fuel bought by manufacturers in industry is up 3¼ per cent. in October on September—3¼ per cent. in one month alone. That must work itself through the economy in prices, and it is the most reliable indicator which the Government have as to what is happening. The price index for home sales of manufactured products

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  rose by 1¾per cent. in October alone. That shows the increase which is now going on. The rise in the wholesale price index, which also has to work its way through industry, was for the last six months at an annual rate of 21·2 per cent., and if food, drink and tobacco are taken out the annual rate is 23·5 per cent. That is what is happening today. That is the level of inflation which has to work through the economy.
  The Chancellor left all of it entirely untouched in his speech. And then one can look at the rest of the indicators which are clearly set out in the CBI survey. The Chancellor himself has paid tribute to that survey and said that if it did not exist he would have to invent it. Investment' is now the worst in the 16 years since the survey has been carried out, except for the immediate period after the July measures of 1966. A 10 per cent. fall in 1975 is what is expected as a result of that survey, and 15 months ago the forecasts were the highest ever on record. That is what the present Government have managed to do in 15 months to investment prospects in this country.
  Unit costs are increasing to a record in history, and that is what is governing our competitive position. Export orders are slackening and we are losing competitiveness. This is what the CBI survey shows. This is why I say that the Chancellor in those charming words has been over-optimistic. In fact, he has not told the House the truth about what is going on.
  Production at the moment is limited by reasons of credit and finance, and in a moment I shall deal with what the Chancellor has done about industry. Liquidity is extremely bad; he has done something about that. Employment is weakening. Those are the general indicators, but so far as exports are concerned the position is particularly worrying
  What has the Chancellor done? First, he has revealed that the borrowing requirement is already £5,500 million—double what he prided himself on getting last March. It is under his administration that the borrowing requirement has gone up. On his own accounting, it has doubled. He has now increased it by another £800 million to the fantastic size of £6,300 million.
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  One remembers the criticisms that the right hon. Gentleman made of the last Conservative administration, and his boasts that he had brought the borrowing requirement down to £2,700 million, in fact as a result of the reductions in Government expenditure which he had inherited from us. Now we have a borrowing requirement of £6,300 million, most of which has to be covered by borrowing abroad. That is the situation that the Chancellor of the Exchequer has created here at this moment.
  When it comes to public expenditure, the Chancellor has not given us any indication of what the cuts in Government expenditure will be or, indeed, whether there are to be any. He mentions defence. He mentions local authorities. I remember the indignation from all right hon. and hon. Members on his side every time there was any suggestion that any local government project should be cut. Now what is he doing? He is saying that it was wrong for local authorities to increase their projects or their expenditure on their own independent judgment, and so there must be control of local government activities. What do his supporters think about that as a general approach to local government? That, too, is where he has changed his whole position.
  Mr. Dan Jones: Will the Leader of the Opposition examine the increased cost as a result of local government reorganisation?
  Mr. Heath: Of course. What the Chancellor of the Exchequer has said, which he would never say before for fear of offending local authorities and his own back benchers, is that action on local government expenditure has to be taken. We were taking that action and, of course, we were damned by the party opposite and damned throughout the election campaign for doing it. That is where the Labour Party has been returned on a fraudulent prospectus.
  When it comes to the question of personal taxation, we welcome the tax relief for the elderly and what the Chancellor has had to say about that. We cannot support him, of course, in trying to put back the arrangement for the personal taxation of investment income, where he is hitting at savings and those who are

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  living on comparatively small incomes. We believe that to be quite unjustified.
  On the question of the pensions uprating and family allowances, as I have said we shall have to see how this stands in relation to the additional burdens that the Chancellor of the Exchequer is putting on the community.
  On the question of the Price Code, this again is the consequence of what the right hon. Gentleman's Government and his colleagues did in tightening up that code on 1st April. Of course, when one has a stagnant economy one cannot possibly operate with a productivity allowance of 50 per cent. That was absolutely plain at the time. For political reasons, however, regardless of the consequences on industry, the Labour Government tightened up the code to that extent. The questions now are these: are the changes that are to be made workable? Are they so complicated that it will be made infinitely more difficult for industry, shops and services to work them? And will they be worth the trouble that they have caused?
  We as a Government examined this question, and we know all the difficulties and complications of doing it. That is why we rejected it in the very first instance because we judged that selectivity could not be operated in this way, and if one tried to operate it the number of people who would get round it would be so large that it would be worthless".
  The real situation with which we have to deal is that the unions have to all intents and purposes got a free-for-all on wages but there is still price control. It is what they have always wanted. It is what they asked for in the Chequers talks and the No. 10 talks, and we always said that one could not operate an economy with any degree of success or get profitability or investment if one had a free-for-all on wages and at the same time a strict control on prices. That goes to the heart of the matter when the Chancellor is dealing with prices.
  Now we come to the real criteria on which we ought to judge this Budget, and I shall deal with them briefly. First, the real task is to prevent tthe immediate collapse of a large part of industry and the
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  machinery for financing it. It is really the task of saving private enterprise, or enabling private enterprise to save itself.
  When it comes to what the Chancellor has done, the open question is whether it is enough. The right hon. Gentleman set a total for next year of, I think, £1,600 million or £1,650 million—in other words, £1·5 billion. Most commentators believe that something between £2·5 billion and £3 billion is required. That is the general analysis. Therefore, it is an open question whether what the Chancellor has done will be enough to deal with the situation.
  Here again we come to the Chancellor's statement on his first Budget:
  "I see no reason why the mass of British business should find itself short of money…in the coming year."—[OFFICIAL REPORT, 1st April 1974 Vol. 871, c. 1007.]
  What a judgment that was in March.
  Now the right hon. Gentleman comes along today and says "I must give them at least £1·5 billion in order to try to enable British industry to save itself". But here again the obligation on industry is still there. It is not being freed from tax. The tax obligation is still there. So how much confidence can industry have when at some future date it will have to meet that obligation just the same? If people in industry go to a bank and their creditworthiness is to be judged, this overhanging tax liability must be taken into account. The real problem of British industry at the moment is that so much of it cannot show the profitability that would enable it to go to a bank and prove its creditworthiness for a loan.
  The Chancellor says that he has made arrangements for Finance For Industry to have large sums of money, but he did not give the actual amount.
  Mr. Healey: I did.
  Mr. Heath: I am sorry, I missed it. Others have said that the sum would be £1,000 million.
  Mr. Healey: The right hon. Gentleman did not listen.
  Mr. Heath: Yes, I did. I listened very carefully, but the Chancellor must realise that parts of his Budget Statement were extremely complicated. How will the FFI use the £1,000 million? The Chancellor said that it was a normal commercial

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  transaction. If that is so, unless companies can show profitability which justifies something from FFI their position will remain the same as it is now.
  Therefore, one comes back to this point: will what the Chancellor has done in postponing a tax obligation and changing the Price Code enable companies to get sufficient profitability to get investment from FFI? There must be grave doubts as to whether that is the case. Where one has profitability at the moment at a level of about 8 per cent. over British industry and inflation running at at least 17 per cent. and increasing, how can a firm show that it is justified in going either to a commercial bank or to FFI for the credit it ought to have? This is the crux of the matter so far as the Chancellor is concerned.
  The right hon. Gentleman took one or two minor measures to help companies—well and good. However, he has done nothing to help agriculture in its present perilous plight. Agriculture is in a worse condition now than it has been since the 1930s, and it is constantly ignored by the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Whether what he has said about the capital transfer tax will be sufficient to enable people to pass on their farms to their heirs is something we must look at in order to see whether what again are complicated proposals are sufficient to do what is necessary. In any case we shall debate this matter many more times in future.
  So far as the construction industry is concerned, naturally a change from 40 per cent. to 50 per cent. is welcome for industrial building. But that will not save the construction industry from the disaster it faces today. The decline in private housing means that it is 55 per cent. down in the third quarter of this year compared with the third quarter of last year. Public sector starts were 11 per cent. down last quarter compared with the previous quarter. That is the crisis that the construction industry is facing.
  The Chancellor talks about the particular difficulties of individual industries, but he has done nothing basically to change the position of the construction industry. Therefore, looking at the problems of industry today, I take leave to doubt whether what he has said is sufficient to enable British industry to put itself on its feet again and to carry out the obligations that it has to the country.
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  Looking at the task of restoring industry and the City to the position in which they should be, I see nothing in the Chancellor's measures that in the longer term will solve the basic problems of industry and finance of which he spoke. When it comes to a restoration of private savings, there is nothing in this Budget to encourage private savings. When it comes to maintaining international confidence, with a borrowing requirement of £6,500 million everybody is bound to ask the extent to which the Budget will reinforce international confidence in this country, particularly when it is realised that insufficient has been done to help industry to get back on its feet.
  Finally I use the criterion of the extent to which the Budget is mastering inflation. It is, of course, deliberately putting up prices, and that is demand deflationary—provided that wages and incomes do not rise proportionately. But, of course, it is the Chancellor's policy that they should rise proportionately and, therefore, one is still on the inflationary course.
  If these increases were being used, as perhaps the Chancellor may hope, surreptitiously—because of those hon. Members on his side sitting below the Gangway—to reduce the standard of living, he could claim that he was beginning to get on top of inflation. But he cannot claim that because he knows full well that the wage increases over the past six months have been well above the increase in the cost of living, and all the indications are that they will remain so. That, then, is the real position when one comes to judge this Budget Statement against what is required to meet the present situation.
  In his peroration the Chancellor echoed the Prime Minister in his Guildhall speech last night when he appealed for national unity which would bring us together and enable us to overcome these problems. There is nothing in the Chancellor's Budget which will help us to create national unity. In fact, what the Prime Minister said echoed what the Foreign Secretary said: that it is the social contract or nothing. What that means is that if the social contract is to be effective in order to have—let me use a neutral term—a sensible arrangement about wages, we have to accept a Socialist

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  State, because that is what the other side of the social contract means. That is no basis for national unity in this country. The Government are trying to create a Socialist State and, on the other hand, we are still not getting a sensible response on wages.
  How, then, can the Prime Minister, the Foreign Secretary or the Chancellor of the Exchequer appeal to us, to the House and to the country to have national unity in this situation? The plain truth is that the Chancellor, the Prime Minister and the whole Government would be in a far stronger position if they had been prepared when in opposition to support sensible measures to deal with national problems. Now they come along and bewail their fate. Having completely reversed their policies of last March and of last July, they now appeal for national unity.
  I must tell the Chancellor of the Exchequer that on the basis which he has put forward there is no possibility of this country accepting a Socialist State in order to try to implement some nonexistent arrangement on wages. We face grave problems at this moment—the dire threat to British industry and to our financial institutions, the dire problems confronting agriculture, the indicators in relation to our export position and the other indicators which I have given today. The Chancellor's proposals are inadequate to deal with the present situation.
  5.41 p.m.
  Mrs. Ann Taylor: Thank you, Mr. Deputy Speaker, for calling me this afternoon to speak in this very important debate. I have already learnt that time in the House is precious and I am, therefore, particularly grateful to you for calling me today.
  As this is my first speech to the House, I start by acknowledging the work of my predecessor, Mr. Redmond, during the four years that he was a Member. His predecessor, who is now my hon. Friend the Member for Widnes (Mr. Oakes), also earned the reputation in Bolton of a good constituency Member, and I recognise that I have high standards to maintain.
  In a Budget debate there are many things which every Member, not least a new Member, would like to urge the
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  Chancellor to do. All of us can think of many schemes and projects on which we would like him to spend money. We all have our own list of priorities. However, in view of the country's economic problems, it would indeed be irresponsible and foolish to expect that the Chancellor could meet all our demands.
  We need to put forward policies that will improve our economic performance and our economic strength. This is, of course, what my right hon. Friend the Chancellor has been doing this afternoon. What we have to recognise is that we must concentrate attention not only where we want to spend money but where we think that resources can be saved. That is why I greatly welcome the statement made by the Chancellor this afternoon that we shall have a national campaign against waste.
  I hope that we shall see action on this matter in the near future, because our society has yet to recognise that we cannot afford the luxury of wasting so many of our limited resources. We cannot continue for ever adopting the shortsighted attitude of a society in which everything must be disposable, in the short term at least. Today we live in a society where the paper cup and paper tablecloth, and even paper sheets and plastic spoons, are taken for granted. We never count the real cost of these items. Planned obsolescence is now accepted by our society and we are now conditioned not to expect anything to last any length of time.
  There are many different ways in which our society wastes its resources. For example every housewife knows, when she empties her shopping bag and puts away the shopping, how much paper, rubbish, cardboard, polystyrene and all sorts of other packaging ends up in the dustbin. We have layer upon layer of excessive and expensive packaging, most of which is not needed to maintain the quality of the goods we buy. If one buys a pound of apples in a supermarket today, one buys also a plastic tray and a load of cellophane. The housewife cannot afford the extra cost of all this, and the country cannot afford the waste and misuse of resources in this way.
  We as a society are also extravagant in not re-using the waste which we make. The Government's recent Green Paper "War on Waste" points the way and

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  shows what recycling takes place and where waste is greatest. The recommendations of the Green Paper should lead to early action. Although this will cost money, it is money which we cannot afford not to spend.
  However, what is needed is not only an increased amount of recycling but a change in attitude. The Government have shown that they are willing to lead the way. Now it is up to local authorities, companies and individuals to follow the Government's example. Many of the resources we use will become more expensive and more scarce, and in the end we shall have to use all our waste and there will be no alternative but to recycle the things we use at present. It would be better to step up recycling and reclamation now in a planned way than wait until emergencies arise.
  As the Chancellor said, we are wasteful of both physical and human resources in the way in which we use roads for carrying goods which should be carried by rail and the way in which we use private vehicles and in our neglect of public transport. That is why we must accept as necessary the measure which the Chancellor mentioned of an increase in value added tax on petrol, even if some Opposition Members could not work out their sums and find out exactly what that would involve.
  We are wasteful in our use of new land for building rather than reclaiming old land and derelict sites, and in the way in which we give insufficient attention to industrial injuries, industrial accidents and areas such as preventive medicine. This causes a great deal of suffering as well as losing us a great deal of money.
  We are wasteful because we do not make full use of the talents of our children, when we prevent and discourage them from developing these to the full, because of the rigidities of our educational system. We do not make the best use of our womanpower because of the discrimination against women which exists in education and employment. I hope that this waste will diminish when the House leads the way in changing attitudes when it makes discrimination against women illegal. All these matters are important and have been neglected because of our short-sighted approach to them.
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  One other way in which we waste resources, and which is of particular concern to my constituents in Bolton, West, is the waste which results from not making full use of the resources of our regions. We have not yet developed successful regional economic policies to provide the new vigour which the regions need and which would increase the strength of the country.
  In Bolton and the North-West there is a need for more and a greater variety of jobs in order to discourage young people from moving from the area. There is also a need for greater Government assistance with such problems as derelict land and buildings, which constitute not only an eyesore and a dent to the civic pride of our town but also an enormous waste of resources. The regions and the towns cannot alone solve the problems facing them and Government help is vital.
  In the past, Governments have tried to bribe and persuade industry to move to the regions, but previous policies have had only a marginal effect on regional prosperity. We now have only one alternative, which is a more direct approach on the part of the Government. The time has come for the Government to be more interventionist to ensure that the development of industry takes place where it is needed most. I hope that the planning agreement system and the National Enterprise Board will help in that respect. I hope that by direct and selective intervention those two systems will bring new life to those areas, as the Chancellor indicated that he hoped they would.
  Regional aid can clearly benefit the areas that receive it, but it could also benefit those areas that are becoming increasingly congested by reducing the pressures and problems of congestion. That in turn would plainly help the country as a whole by allowing a more efficient and a less wasteful use of resources.
  We frequently hear—it is true—that all we want to do in respect of housing, education or social services depends upon the country's economic performance. With the failures in the private sector, the country's economic performance increasingly depends on the actions of the Government. That is why I welcome the

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  measures outlined by the Chancellor today, particularly his assurance that the Government will give a lead to ensure that our society is less wasteful in the future.
  I am glad that the Government have emphasised that power resources are limited. We must be realistic about that. We must realise that help at this stage can be given only to those who need it most. The measures about which we have heard this afternoon are realistic and relevant to the problems faced by this country. As such I welcome them and the action proposed by the Government.
  5.51 p.m.
  Mr. Patrick Cormack: It is a pleasure and privilege to be able to congratulate the hon. Member for Bolton, West (Mrs. Taylor) on her maiden speech. I think that it is only the second time that I have had the privilege of congratulating a maiden speaker. The first was the hon. Member for Bolsover (Mr. Skinner). I am sure that the hon. Lady will make to the debates in the House contributions which will perhaps be a little less contentious than those of the hon. Member for Bolsover. When I first heard the hon. Gentleman I said that I hoped that the House would hear him many times in the future. I hope that the House will hear the hon. Lady many times in the future, but not in quite the same way.
  The hon. Lady paid a gracious tribute to her predecessor, Robert Redmond, whom we on this side of the House miss very much. That tribute was in the best traditions of the House.
  I thought that in concentrating upon the problem of scarce resources, reclamation and recycling, the hon. Lady underlined a problem that we should all have close to our hearts. I have taken a deep interest in the subject for a long time, and I believe that I coined the phrase "war on waste", which the Government have now claimed for their Green Paper. I am delighted about that, If the hon. Lady concentrates on that issue in the future she will be making a contribution in an area of national life that is of vital importance.
  Having paid a tribute to the hon. Lady, which I am delighted to do—she will add grace and charm to our proceedings for
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  some years to come, at least till the next General Election, I trust—I must now, regrettably, pay less of a tribute to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. I consider that, faced with a grave challenge and great responsibility, he has evaded the challenge and funked the responsibility.
  I thought that the opening passages of his brilliantly delivered speech were extremely powerful—a good, and persuasive analysis, but when he came to the remedies he was less reliable. At the beginning the right hon. Gentleman talked about not disguising realities. When he explained his thoughts on fuel subsidies, and so on, I felt that at long last we were to have a real recognition of the realities of the situation. However, everything that the right hon. Gentleman said on that subject—and in so far as he did anything he did the right things—applies just as much to food subsidies and the money that the Government are squandering in that direction. That is merely disguising realities for our people. It is like putting a picture over a damp patch on the wall. The sooner the Chancellor recognises that and translates that into action, the better for us all.
  The right hon. Gentleman said that he had come to do something for British industry. It seemed to me—and I am glad that my right hon. Friend the Leader of the Opposition seemed to have that impression as well—that the Chancellor had done something incredibly complicated. I could not help but wonder whether there was the hand of the Hungarian maestro in the background, and that it was perhaps an obstacle race run to Hungarian rules. However, let us hope that the Chancellor's provisions will help to regenerate confidence in British industry, because if they do not we shall all be feeling sick and sorry very soon.
  Mr. John Tomlinson: The hon. Member should tell us what he would do.
  Mr. Cormack: I shall come to some of the things which the Chancellor should have done.
  First, I do not believe that people in this country have yet woken up to the sort of crisis we are facing, because they have not felt it personally. The Chancellor should have done something, not to

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  penalise the poorer sections of the community—of course not, and so far as he has helped them I welcome it—but to bring home the gravity of the situation.
  I would have welcomed an extra tax on whisky and other drinks. It would have been the right thing to have done. I should have welcomed an extra tax on luxury goods. That would have been the right thing to have done. I should have welcomed it if the Chancellor had said that it was time that we did something about credit cards, although not to create the sort of problem which was created for certain people earlier in the year when there was a sudden, overnight change—which can throw real confusion into a family's budget. But if he had said that as from 1st January there will be restricted use of these cards, I should have welcomed it. It would have helped to bring home to ordinary people the fact that we cannot give ourselves more than we earn.
  It is time that we had a Chancellor with the courage to do that sort of thing. I am not being wise after the event, because I made criticisms of my party when it was in Government. If the Chancellor had done these things at the beginning of his period of office he would have earned the approbation of many people. To some degree that answers the interjection made by the hon. Member for Meriden (Mr. Tomlinson).
  It seems that when the Labour Government talk in terms of public expenditure they have only one thing in mind—defence. That should be the prime responsibility of any Government and the very last thing to be cut, because without an adequately and properly defended nation all the rest can go by the board. Therefore, to talk in terms of defence cuts as though those are the only cuts to make is ridiculous. We must cut our domestic public expenditure. We cannot afford so lavishly to equip our schools. When one is equipping a school there is absolutely no need to put in a colour television set rather than a black and white set. This applies to many things. The question comes down to this—when will we instruct local authorities to cut back such things as road widening schemes and lavish expenditure on the fixtures and fittings in schools, etcetera? There are many such things which we must con
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  template sooner or later. The sooner we contemplate them the better it will be. That is what I should like to have heard the Chancellor talk about.
  Mrs. Renée Short: Is the hon. Gentleman saying that the solution to our present economic difficulties is to cut television sets in schools? That is a silly argument. Is he not aware that education and the health services have already been cut by the Conservative Chancellor last December and are still reeling from the blows which he delivered to them? What else would the hon. Gentleman cut?
  Mr. Cormack: The hon. Lady does herself a disservice. Whatever else she is, she has a very acute mind and knows full well that in tossing off a particular example I was not suggesting for a moment that that was the be all and end all. I was merely taking a small, insignificant matter, but there are plenty of examples one can take from public expenditure.
  Mrs. Short: Tell us about them.
  Mr. Cormack: To some degree this is a question of looking after the pennies and letting the pounds take care of themselves, but if the hon. Lady wants another example I shall say it in a word—motorways. A great deal of money is being spent on the motorway programme, which should be cut. Another big example is the ghastly hole that we contemplated digging when we talked yesterday about the Channel Tunnel.
  Mrs. Short: I opposed that.
  Mr. Cormack: So did I. I am glad that the hon. Lady and I marched shoulder to shoulder on that occasion.
  However, when we come to some of the other things in the Budget, it seems to me that the Chancellor was throwing out the odd sop to his brethren on the far Left of his party—the Scan-geld of British political currency. I was appalled when the Chancellor said that he would reverse the decision of the House about the £10 million. That was so grotesquely irrelevant to the crisis which faces the nation as to be an insult to the intelligence of every hon. Member. It will not wash for him to do that and then to talk in terms of national unity.

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  I come to the capital transfer tax. There are very few who would welcome more than I do the abolition of estate duty and its replacement by something more sensible and comprehensive. But so much of this scheme is motivated by envy and malice. It is all very well for the Chancellor to talk in terms of the need for a profitable sector, but how on earth shall we have a profitable sector without profitable people? How shall we have a profitable sector without giving proper incentive and encouragement to people to aspire to earn more and to own more? As to its being any answer to our problems today, tomorrow and for the next five or ten years, it is totally irrelevant and should have played no part in this Budget.
  In so far as the Chancellor talked of some relief for agriculture, we welcomed it. It will not be enough, and I hope that, at the very least, he will extend those provisions to cover forestry. There was no mention of forestry in the Chancellor's speech. Forestry is of vital importance to our economy and to anyone who regards for a moment the beauty of our environment.
  When the Chancellor came to his peroration and talked in terms of what he had done, he skilfully avoided reiterating that enormous borrowing requirement. At a time of national crisis, to have stood at the Dispatch Box and talked of uniting the people, having produced a Budget which will increase the borrowing requirement by £800 million, is a black comedy, a grotesque farce. We should not be presented with a Budget which will increase the borrowing requirement at a time such as this, let alone by £800 million.
  The Chancellor is banking on oil very much. I believe that we are all making a mistake when we talk of North Sea oil as though it will be the panacea for all our ills and the solution to all our problems. Apart from the territorial claims being wielded so effectively by the hon. Member for Western Isles (Mr. Stewart), there are other considerations. The oil will be very expensive to get out. What will happen when we are getting it out if the Arabs drop their prices astronomically, as they could? Our oil might not be quite the great national benefit that we hope it will be. For the Chancellor to
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  base his judgment on this sort of thing coming right in three, four, five or six years time is wrong.
  The Budget has unked the main issues. The Chancellor has not faced up to the crisis confronting the country. We have had a Budget which has not given ordinary people the opportunity to realise that we all have our backs to the wall. I predict that the Chancellor will be back at the Dispatch Box in six months' time, if he is still in office then, with even more severe measures. I hope that the next time he comes to the Dispatch Box, if we are still facing the sort of crisis to which he has probably added today, he will at least have the courage to produce measures which will bring home to ordinary people the fact that if as a united nation we are to face our problems we must, as a united nation, make individual sacrifices.
  6.5 p.m.
  Mr. Mike Thomas (Newcastle-upon-Tyne, East): Having heard the speech by the hon. Member for Staffordshire, South-West (Mr. Cormack) I find it almost impossible to do my duty and be non-controversial. The only thing I should find more difficult after listening to my right hon. Friend the Chancellor's speech would be voluntarily to join the staff of the Inland Revenue.
  I come to this House in not altogether pleasing circumstances, and I wish to pay a tribute to the late Geoffrey Rhodes, my predecessor, whose dedication to his constituents was well known in this House and was certainly well known in my constituency. He has been missed there as I am sure he has been missed here too.
  My constituency is in the unique position at the moment of having been represented here by three people who are currently hon. Members. There is myself, my hon. Friend the Member for South Shields (Mr. Blenkinsop) and the hon. Member for Altrincham and Sale (Mr. Montgomery). The last case, I can assure Conservative Members, was the result of a political aberration which will not be repeated by my constituents. I hope I shall have the support of all hon. Members and of my right hon. Friend the Leader of the House when from time to time I draw attention to the problems of my constituents and of Newcastle-upon-Tyne.

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  The concerns of my constituents are very much those of everyone in the Northern Region. I experienced some pleasure and some doubt in listening to my right hon. Friend the Chancellor addressing himself to these problems. The first thing that all of my constituents want is a decent home. After that comes a secure and rewarding job, and, thirdly, social benefits that do not mean poverty for anyone unfortunate enough to be old, ill, handicapped, unemployed or widowed. These are the priorities that my constituents would have me urge upon a Labour Chancellor.
  On housing I was pleased to hear my right hon. Friend at least imply that housing will be one of the sectors he exempts or, at least, partially exempts—he was not clear on the point—from the public expenditure controls which he intends to implement. Housing construction and the public ownership of the land on which houses are to be built—land which by right is the community's—are provisions of high importance.
  I was pleased to hear my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment discussing the possibility of cheaper and more speedily constructed housing units. The sad reality for a large number of my constituents is that they are not adequately housed now by any reasonable standards and that they will not be in their lifetime. That is just not good enough. Every time I meet one of my constituents in my surgery and see the reality of their situation, I know that I must tell the Chancellor and the Secretary of State that this is not good enough. It is the job of a Labour Government to do something about it, and I am determined to see that they do. I hope that on that score my right hon. Friend will be studying the impressive record and sound proposals of Newcastle City Council in revitalising and renewing houses as well as in building new units.
  I was pleased to hear my right hon. Friend commit himself against mass unemployment. Nevertheless, the prospect of any increase in unemployment is met with considerable worry and concern by people in the Northern Region and in cities such as Newcastle. It is all very well for the people who sit comfortably in the South-East to talk about unemployment going up "slightly" when it may not go up at
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  all in the South-East but may go up much more than "slightly" in constituencies such as mine. The Chancellor's speech lacked positive proposals to do something about that. I have been more depressed since I entered this House by the fact that the whole range of regional policy appears to have fallen into a trough of despond than by any other single issue I have encountered.
  This is not good enough. Regional imbalances and inequities are grotesque in Britain. To hear hon. Members from Scotland and Wales talk of the problems of those nations—and I accept in one sense that they are nations—when in several important social and economic dimensions the Northern Region of England is far worse off, and without even a spurious moral claim to any oil, makes me annoyed and concerned. I am pleased to see that the proposals for the National Enterprise Board include plans to set up industries in areas of high unemployment, and I was pleased to hear the Chancellor refer to this, but I agree that a selective approach, to which the Chancellor referred in a slightly opaque fashion, is important in this respect too.
  We must put jobs into areas such as the North in order to use the skills of the people there to make commodities the community needs. It is no good if our policies to sustain and create unemployment are not soundly based because they will not fly in the face of economic logic for ever. And it is cruel to those involved to lead them into believing that in the short run their future is secure when they find in the medium and long term that it is not because no one has put industry there which will stay there.
  On social benefits, I was pleased to hear the Chancellor proposing to increase pensions and family allowances, although I wish we could get around to the allowance for the first child. I am not sure what the administrative complications are which make it so easy to pay an allowance for the second and subsequent children but not for the first. I have 12,000 pensioners in my constituency and 3,000 children receiving free school meals—even when my constituents are employed they tend to be worse paid than people elsewhere. I therefore welcome the commitment on that front and hope

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  that we can move ahead speedily with them.
  I am proud to represent the interests of the cooperative movement in this House. I derive from it a personal interest in public and social ownership, in consumer affairs and in the general question of community participation—of people playing a larger part in the lives they lead and the things that happen around them. I hope to see early progress in the discussions between the Government and the cooperative movement with regard to the Cooperative Development Agency. I do not regard that in the way in which some Conservative Members regard support for industry—as a means of putting money into one sector of the economy. I see the Cooperative Development Agency promoting the whole idea of cooperative forms of ownership and participation. The cooperative idea is still grossly under-exploited. Let us consider, as well as the retail movement, cooperative housing, tenants' self-management and the whole issue of neighbourhood democracy and participation which I believe are still viewed with far too much scepticism by the political establishment. I can see a potential for the cooperative idea which has not yet begun to be exploited.
  On consumer affairs, I was greatly worried by my right hon. Friend's references to pensions and subsidies. We are at present operating a system of price subsidies which is justified on exactly the reverse argument to that which the Chancellor used less than an hour ago. I am not privy to detailed discussions between my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Prices and Consumer Protection and my right hon. Friend the Chancellor, but I suggest that they should discuss the question a little more. I am worried above all about what happens when the ill wind that has blown us a Minister for consumer affairs stops blowing. I am referring to the ill wind of inflation, which must be regarded with mixed feelings by some of my hon. Friends who have fought for years for such a Minister since the idea was first put forward in 1953 by the cooperative movement. If that ill wind of inflation stops blowing, as we all hope it will, the Minister that it has blown us must not be allowed to go.
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  A great deal has been achieved in the past two years. I pay tribute not only to my right hon. Friend but to her predecessor, the right hon. and learned Member for Surrey, East (Sir G. Howe). Despite the achievements, there is a great deal still to be done. It is staggering that there is still no legal obligation upon a manufacturer to produce a product that is safe, and that the burden of proof still falls on the consumer to prove that it is unsafe. That is wrong. I should like the Government to address themselves to the matter soon.
  We must also get away from the situation in which the common agricultural policy of the EEC at least appears to be dictated by an unholy alliance of farmers and governments. The consumer viewpoint needs strong representation there.
  As early as 1951, only two or three years after the nationalised industries were established, there were already reports pointing out the weaknesses of the consumer consultative machinery and committees in the nationalised industries. In 1968 the Consumer Council and the Cooperative Party were reporting that nothing had improved. A little later the Select Committee on Nationalised Industries examined the problem and came up with modest suggestions for improvement, some of which were acted upon by the then Government. It is wrong that all these years later, all these reports and discussions later, the consumer voice in the nationalised industries is still hopelessly weak.
  I was pleased to see that my right hon. Friend has included in her proposals for a national consumers' authority reference to examination of the consumer consultative machinery. I hope that she will remember that in our manifesto we made a specific commitment to finance that machinery independently of the State industries concerned. In considering the question of a National Consumers' Authority, for which my right hon. Friend the Chancellor will no doubt be asked to provide finance before the end of the Session, should we not think about its more general rôle? The review of the arrangements for consumer consultation in the nationalised industries seems to me, to judge from the White Paper, to be one of its very few specific functions.

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  The real issue before the House and the country in consumer matters is just how we help the consumer. Do we do it through the Government? Do we say that they are good enough, that they will be the consumers' representative and that we need little else, or do we do it through pressure groups, such as the Consumers' Association, which freely admits that it can claim to represent only a limited number of consumers, or through an agency such as the National Consumers' Authority? The answer is that we probably do it through a mix. The Government cannot abandon the interest of the consumer, yet the public interest is a wider matter.
  I hope that we shall be considering these matters as we discuss our expenditure priorities, and that even in consumer matters we shall not spend money until we have worked out thoroughly what the relationship of a National Consumers' Authority is to be to the fair trading legislation, to the office of Fair Trading to the Consumer Protection Advisory Committee, to consumer advice centres, and even to the Secretary of State herself. After all, the original proposals for a National Consumers' Authority were published by the Labour Party before any of those institutions and persons were in being.
  I hope that I shall be forgiven for having ranged wide. This seemed a unique opportunity to speak without interruption, a privilege that I do not expect to have afforded to me again in the House. It may be some time before I catch the eye of the Chair again. I hope that I have not spoken for too long, and that as a result I shall be better able to catch your eye again, Mr. Deputy Speaker. I thank the House for listening to me so kindly.
  6.20 p.m.
  Mr. Donald Stewart: It is with great pleasure that I congratulate the hon. Member for Newcastle-upon-Tyne, East (Mr. Thomas) on his maiden speech. I also join the congratulations expressed by the hon. Member for Staffordshire, South-West (Mr. Cormack) to the hon. Member for Bolton, West (Mrs. Taylor) on her maiden speech. Both speeches were confident, lucid and well argued. Both had something that is not always found in the House; we could
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  hear them, and it was a pleasure to hear them. I hope that we shall hear them again. The hon. Gentleman welcomed the chance to speak without interruption, but I do not think that when the time comes for his subsequent speeches he will be afraid if he is interrupted.
  The Budget is disappointing in many ways, mostly because of its omissions. We had a great build-up about the grave crisis in which the country is alleged to find itself, but we have had another anticlimax of a Budget.
  The Chancellor of the Exchequer referred to the balance of payments problem. That is something that a free Scotland would not face, even at present. We export more than we import. The publications of the Scottish Council (Development and Industry), which is not a Scottish National Party body, amply bear that out.
  It is unfortunate that the Budget speech contained no urgent plans to assist agriculture in the present grave crisis in the industry. Hon. Members on both sides of the House would have welcomed a measure from the Chancellor to relieve the industry in the desperate situation in which it finds itself.
  The same applies to fishing. The costs of gear and fuel have escalated, and at the same time the catches are lower and the prices are poorer. In many parts of the country vessel are up for sale in what was not so long ago a prosperous industry.
  I am surprised that the Chancellor made no reference to television licences. I was hoping not that the fee would be increased but that the right hon. Gentleman would say something about a reduction for old-age pensioners. When the previous Conservative Government were in office, a Labour Member introduced a Private Members' Bill to give old-age pensioners a cheaper licence. I am sorry that the Chancellor is not considering such a measure.
  I welcome the reference to assistance with the housing programme, which is urgently needed.
  But it was with great fear and trepidation that I heard the Chancellor speak about the increased petrol tax, which will create difficulties for the outlying areas of the United Kingdom. It will be extremely burdensome on Scotland, and especially

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  my constituency and the Highlands in general. It is a tax on distance and on places where the transport is poor in any case. We have to bear exorbitant costs for sea transport. Many goods are taken from the South of Scotland by motor lorry. Here we have another burden on top of the almost insupportable transport burdens we already have to bear.
  There is also the unfortunate cut-back in local authority expenditure. In this area many urgent items are still outstanding. Instead of digging a hole in the ground to join us up with the Continent, instead of going on with the Concorde, instead of building motorways, we should provide such things as housing and water schemes, which are missing in so many areas of Scotland. We have schools that are more than 100 years old and schools that are bursting at the seams. Those are the priorities. The Government should put them before grandiose prestige projects.
  The increase in old-age pensions is naturally welcome, and it is also good that the date of implementation has been brought forward. However, I ask the Chancellor to consider whether April is early enough. Rising costs since the last increase suggest that the increase should be brought in now.
  I also welcome the proposed increases in family allowances, which will also be welcomed by families, but like the hon. Member for Newcastle-upon-Tyne, East, I am surprised that there should be a great difficulty about including the first child in these allowances. It would seem that there should be no great difficulty in including the first child.
  It is regrettable nothing was said by the Chancellor about a national disability income. An announcement on this would have been welcomed on both sides of the House. Even a modest start in providing a national disability income would be welcome. We realise that it may be thought that it would not be appropriate to start such a scheme at present, but the appropriate time will never come along if a start is not made.
  I offer these suggestions and hope that they will be dealt with in the concluding speech from the Government Front Bench.
  6.26 p.m.
  Mr. John P. Mackintosh: It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for the Western Isles (Mr. Stewart), and I always enjoyed the speeches of his predecessor. There must be something about the Western Isles which produces such speeches, whether they are delivered by members of the Scottish National Party or the Labour Party.
  I also congratulate the two maiden speakers, my hon. Friends the Members for Newcastle-upon-Tyne, East (Mr. Thomas) and Bolton, West (Mrs. Taylor), who performed with great lucidity and skill. Seldom has a debate in the House been sustained with such vigour and clarity as has been shown today compared with what is normally regarded as the doldrums of the mid-afternoon.
  In the past two weeks the Foreign Office took me on a journey across the United States from Los Angeles to Boston. During the trip I made 33 speeches, what are called, in America, one-night stands—advisedly I should say—talking to all sorts of audiences. No matter what I spoke about, questions seem to come down to one point. People asked: "Is Britain finished—is it defunct?" You have no idea, Mr. Deputy Speaker, the sort of Press which this country gets from people who like and admire it. People came to me and asked whether Britain was finished. There seems to be a general mental image of Britain that, like the "Titanic", it is sinking and a small group of Scots, like the hon. Member for the Western Isles, are trying to launch a life raft to enable the Scots to get away on their own before the British ship finally sinks. This is the kind of picture which has been painted by friends of this country.
  I came here hoping that in this debate I should encounter a feeling of the guarded optimism with which I spoke. There are great resources of skill, energy and vitality in this country which must not be underestimated. We have faced challenges in the past and I am sure that we can face them in the next few years.
  I shall now look at the difficulties which face the country in the months or years ahead. One of the most immediate fears is still that of a classic run on sterling. We have a £4,000 million balance of payments deficit and we could

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  yet have a July 1966 or November 1967 situation. If there was a major run on the pound, particularly by the Arab holders of money in London, we would have to cut our standard of living by 6 per cent., which would be a major disaster.
  How can we shield ourselves against such a danger? The best solution I believe is one upon which the Community has already embarked, namely taking a certain amount of the reserves of European countries and holding them in common. In such a situation there could not be a run on, say, Germany, France or Italy separately. It would be a run on the Community in toto. Such an arrangement allows the stronger members of the Community to support the weaker members. Having put $3 billion of our reserves together with the Community it is right for the Community to re-lend $2 billion to Italy as the country in greatest danger.
  The present level of interdependence in Europe is the greatest safeguard for this country against a unilateral crash. No member can afford to let it happen to any other member of the Community. If we observe the attitude and pursue the policies which I suggest, we shall probably be saved from an immediate run on the pound.
  If we can safeguard ourselves from this kind of crisis, a second major problem would be the sort of creeping crisis of the kind which has beset our Italian friends in the Community, a situation of steadily-increasing inflation of the kind we now have. The original effect of inflation is to make it harder for us to export. This and the lack of confidence at home discourages businessmen and reduces investment, leading to increased unemployment. The pound could then float further down and prices would rise even further. This miserable kind of creeping debility would get worse. This is probably the major danger facing us.
  Much of the Government's strategy to combat this danger rests on the working of the social contract, which is basically its only answer to preventing wages going up and avoiding a further deterioration in our position. The Government have placed great reliance on the social contract backed by some use of the money supply.
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  I regretted the passage in the speech of the Leader of the Opposition in which he attempted to attack the social contract. When he was in power he attempted, during the meetings he held at 10 Downing Street and at Chequers, to reach a very similar kind of contract with the union movement and with industry. The Leader of the Opposition asked trade union leaders whether they would agree to follow guidelines in co-operation with the Government. He failed to get an agreement, but now the Labour Party has got some kind of agreement.
  If the right hon. Gentleman believes in national unity, as I am sure he does to some extent, he should say that he hopes that the social contract succeeds. He should not attack it. He should wish it well and say that it would be a great blow to this country if it did not work. That should be the message from the Opposition. They should not put forward a mesage in which they condemn and belittle the social contract.
  For our part I would like to see set up quickly a small committee comprised of representatives of the TUC and the Government which could examine what the guidelines of the social contract mean in individual cases. It is not sufficiently clear what the social contract means when it comes to considering the details of individual cases. Local union officials and shop stewards in my constituency telephone me saying that they fought the General Election together with me in part on the basis of the social contract. I know of cases of shop stewards who want to argue particular points, but need to know more about the particular application of the guidelines in the social contract. It is difficult to give such people clear and definite answers.
  If Members of Parliament meet with such difficulty, what must be the position for rank and file trade unionists? We need clearer guidance about what the social contract means in individual cases, so that it can be properly applied.
  If the social contract does not work there must be a fall-back position. I hope that it does work, but we need to know more about cases in which it may not be working and about how far it is not working. I have both advocated and defended the social contract, as have some hon. Gentlemen opposite. Those who

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  talk about a voluntary system being best are in effect supporting a kind of social contract. It is in our interests that the social contract works, but we must know about cases in which it does not work and we must have a fall-back position.
  I was pleased and interested to hear from my right hon. Friend the Chancellor about other measures relating to a fallback position.
  Mr. Timothy Raison: Will the hon. Gentleman comment on the fact that one of the objections to the social contract is that it is exclusively a contract between the Labour Party and the trade union movement and that management and industry has no part in it or no control over it?
  Mr. Mackintosh: I would be delighted to comment on that but first I congratulate the hon. Gentleman on what is probably his first remark following his recent appointment as a shadow Minister. I hope he will go on shadowing in this way. I hope to come to his point in due course.
  I turn now to other objectives which my right hon. Friend the Chancellor mentioned and which I believe are absolutely right, such as the attempts to push extra resources into exports and to get investment back from its abysmally low level.
  If we are facing the prospect of a stagnant economy over the next year or two, and we have to shift resources into exports and investment, this will mean a decline in domestic consumption. This will put a further burden on the working of the wages policy in its various forms.
  I come now to the point raised in the interjection. One major object of the Chancellor was to raise the level of investment. To help to do this as well as to prevent a wave of bankruptcies he eased the cash position of industry by £800 million. I would have preferred it if this relaxation had been done in a more simple and dramatic fashion, by cutting a particular tax on industry quite clearly, rather than through the elaborate devices which he has set out. In my experience businessmen are like all other groups in the community. They do not carry pocket accountants and computers around with them. They need to know clearly and simply about the change that has been made.
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  Also it would have been desirable, in return for the £800 million given to the liquidity of business, if there had been an attempt to draw up a further contract between the Government and industry with the Government saying in effect, "If we ease your position to this extent will you undertake to put a percentage of the money you make back into investment? Will you undertake to put up your investment level if your profits increase or are satisfactory over the next year or two?" A contract of this kind with industry is an essential supplement to the contract with labour because both go hand in hand as an agreement to push forward the economic policies we need to get us out of this immediate crisis.
  I would have liked this idea of a contract with industry to be developed. Basically this is a voluntary approach to the planning agreements proposed by the Government. Such agreements are simply an attempt to get increased investment industry by industry. It might have been better to have sought this objective for industry as a whole, rather than firm by firm and to ask industry to undertake to put a certain percentage of its profits into investment, because the present abysmal rate of investment heralds great difficulty in future, when we shall not get the increases in productivity due to a lack of investment in these current years.
  I have talked about the relationship between the Government and consumers and trade unions and the relationship between Government and industry. I feel it is also important to say a word in all these debates about the relationship between the Government and agriculture. Agriculture is sometimes regarded as a constituency or special interest. But in terms of the food we consume and what we as a nation pay for imported food, the health of the agricultural industry is not a sectional matter. It is not the problem of one particular industry. It is a national matter.
  It is a great pity if, when the National Farmers' Union decides to hold demonstrations around the country, there are attempts to take over the demonstrations by the Conservative Party as if the NFU were a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Tory Party. Let us be clear. The interests of the consumers of this country in a healthy agricultural industry are far beyond the merits of one political party

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  or one party's argument with another. At the moment farmers who could just make ends meet—given the present level of food prices and the cost of inputs into the agricultural industry—at £20 or £21 per live cwt. are getting £13 and £14 per live cwt. This is a disaster. What is so dangerous is that the disaster, like so many others, will not be apparent to the public until 18 months from now because there is sufficient meat in the pipeline, there are sufficient calves to be slaughtered. The full disaster will not come home until the meat shortages will be upon us in 1975 and 1976.
  Mr. John Lee: Will my hon. Friend now join with those of us who are opposed to Britain's entry to the Common Market and help to get rid of the common agricultural policy which has been largely, though not entirely, responsible for the present shambles?
  Mr. Mackintosh: I am sorry to listen to an interjection from a relatively intelligent Member which shows that he knows nothing whatever about the common agricultural policy. If we had taken the intervention price of the CAP we would not be in this present mess. Let me be clear about this. The Tory Party when in Government removed deficiency payments. The Labour Party, in Government, then opted out of the basic intervention system. They left the agricultural industry with absolutely nothing. They left it with escalated costs, but no fall-back position on prices. In this situation we should now be prepared, clearly and decisively, to help the agricultural industry because, just as we need to put liquidity back into industry, so we need to restore the position in agriculture.
  I feel generally that the position in this country is not as gloomy as some of us have painted it and certainly not as gloomy as people abroad think it is. We have faced far greater crises in our time. The only thing that bothers me is perhaps a certain lack of psychological resilience. I do not see why we should not emerge from these problems satisfactorily but we have to tackle them with a certain degree of clarity, interest and lack of partisan bickering of the kind we have unfortunately seen this afternoon.
  6.41 p.m.
  Sir George Young: Many of us on the Tory benches will wish that the views of the hon. Member for Berwick and East Lothian (Mr. Mackintosh) were more widely shared on the Labour benches. The only fault in what I thought was a truly excellent speech was that he paid no tribute to his predecessor, Mr. Michael Ancram, who represented the constituency for eight months, until the last election. I am sure that the hon. Member will put that right when he next speaks. Obviously the hon. Member was not anticipating winning the last election because he had arranged an extensive lecture tour to take place immediately after it.
  Many of us felt that the debate on the Gracious Speech was somewhat unreal because it took place against no financial framework. What the Chancellor has told us today has pulled the rug out from under the Gracious Speech. In the debate on the Address we had Minister after Minister, including the Prime Minister, hoisting up the sails and unfurling them. Now we have had the Chancellor from his vantage point in the crow's nest saying that there are storm clouds overseas and the sails have to come down again.
  The Chancellor has totally undermined the credibility of the Gracious Speech which we debated last week. Many of us will disagree with the underlying philosophy of what the Chancellor said. He started on the basis that the social contract was working, whereas many of us believe that it is not. I go along with what the hon. Member for Berwick and East Lothian has said, that we must define the social contract a lot more clearly so that we know whether it is working.
  The situation we have at the moment is a complete nonsense, with half the House saying that something is within the social contract and the other half saying that it is without it. We have to resolve that position as soon as possible. I hope that the clear warning which the Chancellor of the Exchequer gave in his speech of what would happen if the social contract failed will accelerate that process of definition.
  The Chancellor appealed for national unity. It seems that no speech in this

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  House is complete without such an appeal. One might have hoped that, given that appeal, he would have buried all partisan legislation. In fact he did exactly the reverse. He exhumed a particularly evil-smelling bone from the Labour Party's political cemetery and deposited it on the Floor of the House. I refer to the £10 million refund to the trade unions. It is an affront to the people of the country that this measure should be reintroduced.
  The Labour Party had the grace to leave it out of its manifesto in February. I do not know whether it was in the more recent one. It is an affront to the common sense of the people that this £10 million should be repaid. Those sections of the community who might legitimately have expected something from the Budget, single-parent families, single child families, the disabled who are campaigning for an allowance of their own, will see that the Labour Party is giving £10 million hack to the unions but is ignoring them. People will draw their own conclusions about where the priorities of Labour Members really lie.
  have three questions to put which I hope will be dealt with later in the debate. First, why is there no incentive to save in the Budget? There was nothing in what the Chancellor said to encourage people to save. In times past the money which industry has needed for investment has come from the private savings of individuals. Those have been eroded and investment now has to come from the public sector with complicated safeguards. We have to rekindle the incentive to save. There was nothing in the right hon. Gentleman's speech to do that.
  Secondly, there was nothing to convince the overseas depositor, the institutions such as the IMF and countries in the Middle East, that we intend to conduct our affairs in a responsible fashion. It was the previous Chancellor, now the present Foreign Secretary, who in the last Labour Government had to admit that they were blown off course because of storm clouds overseas, because he forfeited the confidence of people outside the country whose funds we need if we are to survive. If that confidence is not won, the Chancellor will be back at that Dispatch Box within weeks with another Budget to deal with the run on the pound.
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  My third question, or series of questions, arises from what the Chancellor said about the nationalised industries. We on the Tory benches would like to know what, for example, would be the cost of postage if the nationalised industries are to be put on a viable footing. What will be the cost of a telephone call if the Post Office telecommunications sector has to pay its own way? What will be the cost of rail fares, for example London to Ealing Broadway, if British Rail is made profitable? What will happen to electricity and gas tariffs if the subsidies to nationalised industries are removed?
  We can judge the effect of the Budget on the retail price index and on pensioners only if we have that information. I hope that the information I have requested, which I am sure is available somewhere, will be forthcoming during the debate. If the Chancellor thinks that he has tackled inflation, I suggest that his salary should be related inversely to the cost of living index.
  The British people seem to have two partly conflicting characteristics. On the one hand, people respond generously and partriotically to a crisis and make deep personal sacrifices for the common good. On the other hand, if people perceive that certain sections of the community are not bearing their share of the burden they feel understanably resentful. What the Chancellor said will add to the feeling in the country that certain sections of the community will not have to bear the burden. The social contract is to remain unamended. Certain sections of the community will be free to secure large wage increases in the coming months, and other sections of the community will not have that power. That will contribute to a feeling of injustice, which is not the right atmosphere within which to tackle the economic crisis.
  Many people would have been prepared to make greater sacrifices than were called for. As has been said, a tax on alcohol and increased betting levies would have been a fair way to get purchasing money out of the economy. Then we could have done something more for the sections of the community which I mentioned. Without the feeling that everyone is bearing an equal burden, I do not think that the Chancellor's measures have a chance.
  6.46 p.m.
  Mr. Kenneth Lomas: I have been in the House for 10 years and I learn something every time I come into the Chamber. The hon. Member for Ealing, Acton (Sir G. Young) argued in favour of subsidies to keep down the cost of living. What a wonderful argument to come from a Conservative. I should like to take him up on that argument, but I promised Mr. Deputy Speaker not to keep the House for more than 10 to 12 minutes.
  Sir George Young: I made no plea on behalf of subsidies. I merely asked for some information so that we could judge the impact of the Chancellor's measures.
  Mr. Lomas: By implication the hon. Gentleman was saying that if subsidies were removed the price of a telephone call and of a rail journey from London to Ealing would be increased.
  I agree with the hon. Gentleman that the Chancellor could have introduced an incentive to save. That would have been a useful exercise.
  I have pleasure in congratulating my hon. Friends the Members for Bolton, West (Mrs. Taylor) and Newcastle-upon-Tyne, East (Mr. Thomas) on their maiden speeches. My hon. Friend the Member for Bolton, West is a maiden in the truest possible sense. She lives in my area in Colne Valley. Unfortunately the hon. Member for Colne Valley (Mr. Wainwright) is not here, although he is Liberal spokesman on economic affairs. I notice that no Liberal Member is present. The speeches of both my hon. Friends were fluent, and it is obvious that we shall hear a great deal more from them in future.
  At the conclusion of the Chancellor's statement the Leader of the Opposition seemed to whip himself up into a hot lather. He seemed to be fighting two battles, one against the Chancellor, which he lost, and the second against his own party which he has already lost. It is unfortunate that the Leader of the Opposition should have been so upset when the Chancellor said only what we promised during the election campaign to say, that we would tell the country the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. The Leader of the Opposition tried to make great play of the damage that
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  the Chancellor had inflicted on the country in his March Budget. Whatever the Chancellor did in March was nothing compared with the damage inflicted by the Tory administration with the three-day working week in January and the cuts made in December 1973. It was because the previous Tory administration did those things that the Chancellor had to act as he did.
  We must face the facts of life. No Labour supporter has ever blamed the Conservative Party for the rise in world prices or for the fivefold increase in the cost of oil. Constantly during the election campaign we said that the problem was that nothing had been done to protect the consumer against the effects of rising prices. That was precisely why we introduced food subsidies.
  It is no use hon. Gentlemen showering abuse upon the social contract unless they are prepared to put something in its place. All that the Opposition could put in its place was confrontation.
  Mr. David Mitchell: Does not the hon. Gentleman foresee the possibility of the TUC trying to see that the social contract is enforced, perhaps in the same way as the TUC tried to see that its own recommendations on the Industrial Relations Act were enforced?
  Mr. Lomas: I hope that the leaders of the TUC, recognising that the Government in power will fulfil their side of the social contract in terms of social services and housing, will give their support. I would expect the support of the TUC and trade union leaders. I go along with what the hon. Gentleman may be implying, that those at the top end of the social or wage scale must be prepared to hang back so that those at the lower end, such as the ancillary health workers for instance, are allowed to catch up. I hope, from what has been said this afternoon by the Chancellor, that there will be some reaction from the TUC on this matter.
  I am a litle unhappy about the Chancellor's statement on subsidies and nationalised industries, with the implication that almost an economic price should be paid for the services provided by the nationalised industries. We are dealing not just with pensioners but with the lower paid, and if the subsidies are removed from the lower-paid workers

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  entirely, we are simply asking for them to put in another wage claim, which will start up the wages spiral all over again. I think that that is wrong.
  The Chancellor was absolutely right to make it abundantly clear that the policy of the Labour Party is not to create unemployment to solve the problem, but to create employment in distress areas where necessary. If industries or companies come to the Government and say "We are x million pounds in the red and we want some help", in the interests of those employed in those industries we should make a loan. Then we are entitled to demand a commensurate share in the control of that industry, dependent on the amount of money we have invested. There are many other subjects that we shall discuss in Committee, among them the price code and corporation tax.
  I welcome the Chancellor's statement about the social services. It will be made plain to the ordinary man and woman in the street and the trade union movement that when we make a promise we keep it. The fact that in April 1975 pensions go up to £11·60 for a single person and to £18·50 for a married couple is a step in the right direction to show that we as a party and as a Government are determined to honour our side of the social contract, but we have to be careful that the lower-paid workers—and there are many lower-paid workers on less than £20 a week—do not fall below what we are to pay retirement pensioners.
  I agree with what has been said about family allowances. I cannot understand the difficulties, except the problem of cash, that prevent a payment for the first child. The latter should be looked at again to see whether something can be done. We welcome the fact that there is to be an increase for the second and subsequent children.
  A political point has been made about the increase of VAT on petrol from 8 per cent. to 25 per cent. The Leader of the Opposition could not work it out. One almost felt like sending for Sir Alec Douglas-Home and his box of matches to help him. For every three or four miles that one travels it will cost one penny more. That is not asking a tremendous amount and it is a price we should be prepared to pay.
  Mr. Patrick McNair-Wilson: What is the hon. Gentleman's computation for a gallon of four-star petrol?
  Mr. Lomas: Taking it on a basis of 54p or 55p, if one adds 8 per cent., it comes out at about 4p, which one multiplies by about three times, so that the answer is 12p extra per gallon.
  The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Mr. Joel Barnett): Perhaps I can help my hon. Friend. Some hon. Members seem to be having awful trouble, as my hon. Friend says. There are difficulties in the calculation, even for right hon. Gentlemen, because of the different grades of petrol. It would add about 8½p per gallon of four-star petrol.
  Mr. Lomas: If it is 8½p per gallon, it depends how far one is going to travel on a gallon; it is as simple as that. It is an issue one can make a song and dance about, but I do not think that it is vital, because, as has been said, it will not affect public transport or derv in any way.
  I was glad to hear the Chancellor say that at some time in the new year we shall have a White Paper on defence cuts. Although it is essential that we should have an adequate defence force we should look at the vast amount of money we are spending on defence to see whether there are ways in which it can be cut.
  I sound a note of warning to the Chancellor on local government expenditure. It is no use telling local authorities that they must reduce expenditure when they are strained to breaking point trying to provide the schools and houses that are needed in their areas. My area of Kirklees has been neglected for years by Conservative-controlled and Liberal-controlled local authorities. Huddersfield, in particular, has never been Labour controlled.
  We have been pressing for new schools. Only two days ago I had a letter from the Under-Secretary of State for Education saying that our constituency could have two new schools, Stile Common and Mount Pleasant. And everyone was delighted. But who will pay for them? Where will the local authority get the money?

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  We should recognise that we cannot squeeze local authorities much more unless we reduce the services that we are prepared to offer to the general public. I for one am not prepared to see services reduced when that reduction is in terms of reducing the number of schools or houses required. I hope that the Chancellor will take note of that.
  Finally, I believe that this Budget is realistic and relevant. It is one in which we can go for the future, and it will see us through till the next one is presented in April next year. It deals with the present situation. I wish the Chancellor well, and I hope that his Budget, as it goes through its various stages, will receive the support of the House.
  7.1 p.m.
  Dr. Reginald Bennett: I shall not follow in his wide discursus the hon. and gallant royal marine from Huddersfield, the hon. Member for Huddersfield, West (Mr. Lomas), except to say that I trust that in the White Paper, to which he is looking forward, his royal corps will not find itself ceasing to exist, of which I have some fears.
  I will not go broadly into the considerations of the Budget as a whole. I wish to deal with one narrow point. Whether the social contract works or not we shall know in the darkest months of this winter. Probably most of my right hon. and hon. Friends will agree that something has been done to help industry in the Budget, and I, for one, am heartily glad.
  The point on which I want to make favourable comment is the concession granted in connection with space heating installations. It is rather unexpected. I had a hand in attempting to draw attention to this injustice in the past. This matter relates to Statutory Instrument 2129/1973. Space heating installations were treated as if they were the same as ordinary consumer throwaway goods, whereas they were inalienable parts of the property to which they were fitted. They were fixtures in the most fixed way possible. One could not pull out the central heating pipes like spaghetti from under the floor or round the skirting boards.
  It was a gross injustice, which I took up with the Minister at the time. I received a somewhat cooling letter. I had it confirmed in a letter I received, dated
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  30th October, from one of the companies in my constituency which approached me about the matter, that there was no hope of a concession, but that correspondence would be referred to the Chancellor.
  I must say that I am heartily glad on behalf of prospective users of central heating, of those who manufacture it, and of the country's welfare as a whole, that the system of payment for central heating equipment will be changed from paying one-third deposit and two years to pay the rest to paying one-tenth deposit and five years to pay the rest. It is a very big difference in the treatment of what is, surely, a benefit all round but, in particular, a benefit towards the cause of fuel economy and a benefit for those who wish to invest in property of their own for their own comfort.
  I make this short intervention to say how pleased I am, on behalf of those concerned, that this has been done to help the country in a narrow sector, but one which greatly needed relief.
  7.4 p.m.
  Mr. Giles Radice: agree with the hon. Member for Fareham (Dr. Bennett) in his welcome for the concessions to the space heating industry. It will help employees in my constituency, too.
  The House has heard tonight two excellent and lucid maiden speeches from my hon. Friends the Members for Bolton, West (Mrs. Taylor) and Newcastle-upon-Tyne, East (Mr. Thomas). The speech of my hon. Friend the Member for Newcastle-upon-Tyne, East was particularly effective when he was discussing the problems of the regions and when he made a plea for more help for the regions.
  I welcome back to the House my hon. Friend the Member for Berwick and East Lothian (Mr. Mackintosh), who was in extremely good form.
  The less said about the speech of the Leader of the Opposition, the better. The right hon. Gentleman appears to have abandoned his rôle during the election as the architect of national unity in favour of an electioneering posture for the leadership of the Tory Party. For a serious leader of a so-called serious party, that was not good enough. For somebody who has been calling for national unity to speak in the terms in which the

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  right hon. Gentleman spoke this afternoon was deplorable.
  In a world of scarce resources, any Chancellor's task is, by definition, very difficult. I think most people would agree that the problems facing my right hon. Friend are almost uniquely daunting. Our balance of payments, despite an encouraging and swift reduction in the non-oil deficit, remains extremely weak. We still have the largest current account deficit in the world, amounting to nearly 5 per cent. of our gross national product, and the improvement in our balance of payments is due not to an increase in exports or a reduction in imports but to a large rise in export prices and some reduction in import prices.
  Whatever the exact figures—and we can argue about them—it is clear that our rate of inflation is extremely high, so much so that it threatens the existence of some firms, makes the life of the weaker groups—the old folk, the large families, the sick and disabled—almost intolerable and, as it has operated so far, ensures that there are no increases in real standards of living for ordinary people.
  Next, employment. Here again, although there is uncertainty about the figures, there is no doubt that the trends show unemployment rising at an unacceptable level, particularly in the development areas. I know that in some quarters, particularly on the Opposition benches, there are those who say, "The unemployment figures have been grossly exaggerated and they are, in fact, far lower."
  The right hon. Member for Leeds, North-East (Sir K. Joseph) has, I understand, suggested that at least half, if not more, of the unemployed are either between jobs or unemployable. It has been shown that the right hon. Gentleman has not done his homework, or he would have known that even those who are unemployed for eight weeks or less suffer considerable hardship. The majority do not receive redundancy payments. A significant minority do not even receive unemployment benefit and, equally important, a Department of Employment survey showed that at least one-quarter of the short-term unemployed had been unemployed at least twice during the previous year. As for the so-called unemployable group, a recent PEP study showed that
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  the vast majority of the long-term unemployed want jobs but have not been able to get them, and they suffer greatly as a result.
  If, instead of starting ill-considered hares, the right hon. Member for Leeds, North-East had devoted his attention to the problems of regional unemployment, and if he had said that the unemployment problem in this country was at least partly a regional problem, I should have had some sympathy with him. Like many other hon. Members from northern constituencies and constituencies in development areas, I, too, am deeply disturbed by the rise in the unemployment figures. For example, in the Northern Region the male unemployment level is now 6·2 per cent. That is the highest rate in the United Kingdom outside Northern Ireland—in many towns it is much higher—and it is three times higher than in the South-East. I am also certain, from all that has happened in the past, that if unemployment continues to rise as it has done it will be areas such as the Northern Region that will suffer most. For all those reasons I am glad that the Chancellor has made the maintenance of full employment one of his main objectives.
  In facing the country's economic problems, the Chancellor has had many formidable handicaps. First, the information on which he had to base his Budget judgment is almost totally inadequate. We do not know what is happening with regard to unemployment, nor what will happen, and I should like to know the Treasury forecast for unemployment during 1975.
  What is the real position concerning company liquidity and company investment intentions? What is happening, and will happen, to world prices, on which some of the Chancellor's strategy must be based? These are all vital questions to which the Chancellor does not have any adequate answers.
  Some of the instruments with which the Chancellor must work in present conditions are unusable. Others, for social and other reasons, are entirely inappropriate, while others still are there only in embryo. I take three examples. There are some signs that our currency may be overvalued, but, for internal reasons, a straight devaluation would be totally impossible. Effective fiscal remedies against wage inflation would create a level

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  of unemployment which would be totally unacceptable, and statutory controls as they have been worked in the past would not only be divisive but would be effective only in the short term. I am a strong supporter of the National Enterprise Board, particularly for the creation of regional employment, but I must admit that it is likely to be effective only in the medium term.
  The Chancellor faces another handicap, and perhaps his most formidable one. All the familiar landmarks of the post-war world have gone, so much so that none of the economic pundits seems to have much idea of what ought to happen and what should be done. I do not believe that my own party has a monopoly of economic wisdom.
  I am strongly in favour of an extension of public ownership, but I am not so naive as to believe that a change in ownership solves the problems of employment, inflation or the balance of payments. Any British Chancellor in the mid-1970s must be uncomfortably aware that his action in one area can affect what happens in another. On the other hand, he must be more uncertain than ever of the interconnection between the different economic and social variables.
  So, in this uncertain and difficult world, what are the tests by which we should judge the Budget? There are basically three: first, has the Chancellor helped to create a climate in which Britain's problems can be tackled realistically and resolutely? Secondly, has he, by reducing some of the glaring inequalities in our society and helping some of the weaker groups, begun to forge a real sense of national purpose? Thirdly, has the Budget made any significant contribution to solving our major economic problems?
  On realism, the Chancellor scores high marks. He did not mince his words and he made it absolutely clear that we face an extremely difficult problem. He explained extremely lucidly the effect of the increases in oil prices on the world economy and on the underdeveloped countries. He was realistic about the balance of payments problems, inflation and unemployment. He was clear in his objective that there should be a shift in resources to export and investment and that there must be realistic energy prices and some selective help to industry. The
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  Chancellor has created the right climate for a realistic approach.
  On social objectives, the Chancellor has done just about the minimum necessary, and no more. He has, in fact, come pretty close to it. He has increased pensions. I share the view of many hon. Members that it is a pity he has not extended family allowances to the first child. I believe that he could have done that. We must welcome the priority he is giving to housing and the health services in any public expenditure strategy, and we must welcome, too, the tax on capital transfer.
  But it is in considering the Budget as a contribution to solving our major economic problems that I have some reservations. I do not think that he has done enough about the balance of payments. I accept that we cannot solve our balance of payments problems overnight. We probably cannot solve them in four or five years. We must rely extensively on borrowing. However, it is clear that, if there were a run on the pound, we should be very dangerously exposed. I hope that the Chancellor has emergency measures for direct controls on imports, because these may be needed.
  As regards inflation, I thought that the Chancellor was not as enthusiastic as he might have been about the social contract. I disagree with what has already been said. I think that he relied far too heavily on the money supply. I feel that he should have placed greater emphasis on the social contract and on the necessity of making it work. I agree with my hon. Friend the Member for Berwick and East Lothian in that I think that this needs further elaboration.
  I turn now to employment, the area about which I am most worried. I think that the Chancellor was right to help industry and to give that help on a selective basis. However, I am disappointed that he has not done more for the building industry, and, above all, that he has not done more for the regions.
  It is true that we do not have the most effective instruments to hand. The National Enterprise Board is not yet in existence. But that strengthens the argument for having something now to tide us over the winter and carry us into 1975. After all, the regional employment premium is still less now, after being

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  doubled, than it was in 1967. I know that everyone in the Northern Region will be extremely disappointed that we have not received something from the Budget to help us over the winter.
  I believe that the Chancellor has made a brave attempt. He has been realistic about the problems, he has been clear in his objectives and he has produced a socialy concerned Budget. I only hope that he has got his sums on the economy right, particularly as regards employment, and especially employment in the regions.
  7.18 p.m.
  Mr. Patrick McNair-Wilson: I agree with the hon. Member for Chester-le-Street (Mr. Radice) in hoping that the Chancellor has got his sums right, though he did caution us all about the dangers of economic forecasts. I hope that he will not be afraid to come back to the House should the situation change dramatically.
  The Chancellor told us something, as did my right hon. Friend the Leader of the Opposition, about the serious situation which we now know that Britain faces, the most serious since the end of the war. Our situation is an amalgam of a number of different problems. The speed at which oil prices were increased during the last 12 months is one of those problems, but I do not think that any hon. Member thought that the world could carry on indefinitely without a rise in oil prices. It was the speed at which they rose which created the imbalance, not only for ourselves but for many other countries.
  I was in the Gulf area on business only two weeks ago. Talking with oil producers, one finds that many of them wish to see oil prices substantially reduced. One must remember, however, that the members of OPEC are a large group, not confined to the Middle East. To reduce those prices requires agreement among many nations. However, the OECD report has made clear that, if prices remain as they are, by 1980 oil production will be about 42 million barrels a day, and consumption will be down to about 28 million barrels a day. These figures lead me to believe that, if we can overcome the short-term oil problem we may in the 1980s find that oil is not only plentiful but almost a glut on the market, because so
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  many industrialised nations in the past simply did not seek alternative forms of energy.
  The part of the Chancellor's speech which needs the most careful attention was that dealing with energy costs. He made a point to which I wholeheartedly subscribe, that energy costs should as nearly as possible reflect the true cost of producing that energy.
  One has then to raise some questions which were not answered by the Chancellor in his speech. Does that mean, for instance, that the mine workers' wage increases—I shall not quarrel at the moment about whether they should have them—are to be reflected in the cost of coal to the consumer? If they are to be so reflected, the effect of the substantial wage claims which are already in the pipeline for the coal mining industry, quite apart from those which have already been granted, will be titanic, not only on electricity generation but upon the steel industry and all the products that flow from it, and will be every bit as difficult to absorb for the domestic consumer as any oil price increases over the past 12 months.
  I caution the Chancellor and the Treasury Minister who is to wind up today to give us an indication of the time scale against which these increases are to take place. There is a danger that, if an attempt is made to create a commercial situation where there is a balance between the true cost of producing the energy and the cost to the producer, this will be a strain which our economy will not be able to manage.
  We are a four-fuel economy and, to a greater or lesser extent, we depend almost exclusively upon two fuels, namely, oil and coal. It think it is said that previous Governments have not been nearly quick enough to increase the amount of electricity generation based on nuclear power. Even the announcement made by the Secretary of State for Energy before the General Election does not lead us to anything much more than a large pilot operation.
  There is also the question in the Chancellor's speech of the use and conservation of products and the use of waste. Another area in the energy field to which one might devote many hours of careful

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  attention is the burning of waste to produce space heating in homes and elsewhere.
  Having said that about the increases which the right hon. Gentleman has suggested may flow from his statement, I should have thought that this produced for the coal mining industry the most wonderful opportunity that it has ever had. As a result of the increases in oil prices, the coal mining industry can play a more significant part in our direct economic survival than it has for many years. Those members of the National Union of Mineworkers who are to ballot in the next day or so as to their productivity deal should realise that the opportunity which now exists for that industry is enormous. Industrial peace, particularly if it can be related to the direct productivity of individuals in the industry, must be something for which we must work. The Chancellor's statement today should give those moderates who wish to see that deal put through a great deal of extra encouragement.
  There is one part of the Chancellor's Budget which worries me considerably. It is the part related to the increase in the cost of petrol. It was said that the Chancellor did not have the courage to say at the Dispatch Box that we are now talking about 63p per gallon for four-star petrol. It required questions to his hon. Friend and a comment by the Chief Secretary to elucidate this fact. Some of us have predicted that before long petrol will be £1 per gallon.
  The effect that these increases have on those living in rural areas is dramatic. In my constituency, in the New Forest, an area of 440 square miles, if one does not have a motor car it is difficult to survive. The running down of the railway services, and indeed the taking up of railway track, in the past together with the lack of effective rural bus services—I am not apportioning blame here—has led to a situation in which a car is not a luxury but an absolute essential.
  The Chancellor told us that he hoped that the increase in the old-age pension would offset the costs to those pensioners using motor cars. It cannot be like that in the New Forest. The increase in cost will not be met by the increases in pensions which the right hon. Gentleman outlined today.
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  The Government must seriously consider providing some kind of relief for those living in rural areas. It will not be good enough merely to say that public services and those who can claim back their value added tax are the majority, of motorists. There are those who need a car essentially for shopping, for visiting the doctor, and so forth. An increase of 8p, to 63p per gallon, for four-star petrol will have an extremely deleterious effect on many individuals in my constituency. I should have thought that either the Chancellor could introduce some form of direct relief, which could be made available to those entitled to claim it, or that there should be the provision of perhaps a dyed petrol available at certain pumps for use by people in rural areas. I believe that this is a matter to which we must return later.
  I do not know whether the very thin support on the Government benches this evening is any indication of the support which the Government have for the Budget. Hon. Members could be forgiven for feeling less than happy about it. Although the Chancellor faced a situation in which, as he said at the beginning, the most important decisions had to be taken, and as, indeed, the Press and the media had told us, it would be one of the most important Budgets since the war, he sat down leaving a large number of questions totally unanswered.
  The right hon. Gentleman told us, as we had been told on successive occasions by the present Government, merely that a review of our defence costs is taking place. People in my constituency at the military port of Marchwood want to know what that means in terms of their livelihoods and their jobs. They want to know—not in a few weeks' time, which is the phrase which has been used on so many occasions: they want a firm date and some firm figures.
  Those in local government service will also want actual figures put against the costs and the cuts which are to be made under this Budget. Those farmers in my constituency who need an immediate cash injection—it is not enough for the Minister just to shrug his shoulders—will feel that this Budget has taken no account of the real problem which this country faces, which is somehow to reduce our

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  dependence upon imports and to do more for ourselves, to be more self-reliant.
  I believe that this Budget, though it points to many of the problems which we face, does not provide the answers which are essential if we are to survive. It is in a sense a song without words.
  7.29 p.m.
  Mr. Dafydd Wigley: I am very worried tonight because I cannot but feel that the Chancellor, after making a most interesting analysis of the situation, has not taken the steps necessary to meet the many worrying problems which face the countries of these islands at this time. What he has done may be too little, and it may not be soon enough. Many questions remain unanswered. I shall comment briefly on one or two aspects, and then delve more deeply into one or two serious matters which affect my constituency.
  First, one feature that I welcome in the Chancellor's analysis is his flexibility. He has introduced a new flexibility. He referred to considering questions of industrial investment and help at plant level. That is something we shall greatly welcome, though companies will want to know what detailed proposals he has on this, as on many other matters. They will want to know whether projects already being undertaken may be affected.
  Now that we have a net borrowing requirement of £5,500 million, the message is really coming home to us that we are living in a Britain that is next to bankrupt. Despite my constitution ambitions for the countries of these islands, I do not welcome that fact. It is something that will hit the ordinary people of these islands in a devastating way. I think the truth is coming home about the millions of pounds that have been spent on prestige projects over the past decade; projects which the countries of these islands could not afford, projects such as those mentioned yesterday, namely, the Channel Tunnel, Concorde and defence expenditure. If there is to be a reduction in expenditure to meet some of the problems now facing us it seems to me that after what we have heard today there will have to be a considerable reduction in defence expenditure, and the sooner we have a statement of the Government's intentions in this direction the better.
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  The Chancellor referred to some of the problems facing us. He referred to investment priority, to having prices set realistically, and to monetary control. These are all good intentions, but I wonder whether they will be undertaken in the right way. Investment must be a priority, but I wonder whether the Budget provides sufficient incentive for that investment. Is there sufficient incentive for the capital formation increase that is absolutely essential to the economy? We need a greater supply of capital in the economy to bring down the price of capital, and I am certain that the interest rates currently prevalent are one of the crucifying aspects of the economy in these islands.
  If it is not possible—and from the proposals contained in the Budget it would appear not to be—to increase the voluntary capital formation, will the State have the necessary powers, and will it use those powers wisely enough to ensure that there is capital formation in the public sector? Can we have capital formation in the public sector at the necessary level when we have a net borrowing requirement of £5,500 million?
  I come now to the question of prices being pitched realistically. What will be the effect, particularly in the short term, of fuel prices in the public sector, at a time when inflation is already serious? It has been said tonight that the inflationary rate will be pushed up from 20 per cent. to 22 per cent. per annum. I wonder whether this is the time to switch direction. I suspect that pitching prices realistically will defeat one of the Chancellor's other objectives, namely, the control of inflation.
  I come to money control. There are arguments for looking at the monetary control aspect, but I wonder whether, at a time when unemployment is rising, as has been mentioned by hon. Gentlemen opposite, we are not in the situation that we may get runaway unemployment as a result of monetary control.
  The aspect of the Budget that will hit my constituency and rural Wales hardest is increase in VAT on petrol. It is no exaggeration to say that a motor car is essential to life in constituencies such as mine. In Caernarvonshire, Merioneth and other constituencies in rural Wales the income per capita is extremely low.

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  A parliamentary answer that I received in May showed that income per capita in Caernarvonshire was £349, compared to £663 as an average in England. And yet the car ownership, per 1,000 population, is more than 300, compared to an average of 254 in England. That shows the need for a motor car in everyday life.
  People with relatively low income have to travel perhaps 20, 30 or 40 miles, and the effect on them will be catastrophic—and this is in an area that has been hit by the Government's agricultural policy. Beef farmers have been hit very hard, and they will be hit hard again by the Budget.
  We need positive action. I suggest that the Government look at the possibility of reducing or abolishing the road fund licence in rural counties, because these are geographically definable. I ask the Government to look at the possibility of assisted travel to work for those who have to travel farther than a threshold mileage, so that those who travel, say, 30 miles can have some allowance, either against their income tax or by some other method to meet their travelling costs. This is a matter of urgency in my constituency, and I ask the Government to look at the matter on this basis.
  There are other aspects of the Budget that will not be welcomed in my constituency. We welcome, of course, the statement on capital transfer tax so far as agriculture is involved. This was an essential step, but I suspect that many small businesses will be hit by the Government's proposals. It would be good for small businesses on which many rural areas such as mine depend if it were possible for the Government to consider thresholds before bringing in this measure so that they could be exempted in some way.
  I join other hon. Members in welcoming the increase in pensions, but, with the increase in energy costs that will inevitably follow, I wonder whether a pension increase in April will not have been swallowed up before it is granted.
  We welcome the increase in family allowances, but, regrettably, the first child has not been included. We hope that it very soon will be. We hope also that it will be possible to increase these payments still further, because the cost
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  of living for the families that need it so much will escalate in the coming months.
  There are, therefore, considerable worries about the Budget. If there is to be a cut-back on expenditure on the public sector in local government, I implore the Government to make it very sensitively indeed, because if it means an increase in the rates there will be a rate rebellion on a mammoth scale.
  In my area, and in most areas of Wales, we have been landed with a reorganisation of local government, with all the implications of cost increase. If we have been saddled with an unwanted reorganisation, let us at least have the manpower and resources to make it work, otherwise the whole machinery will be in danger of crumbling.
  I add a plea for another sector that has not been mentioned in today's speech, namely, the disabled. I very much regret that the Chancellor was not in a position to guarantee disablement income. The disabled—even in these hard times, and perhaps even more so in these hard times—deserve our sympathy.
  As I listen to speeches on the Budget I cannot help feeling that three Budgets in a year are too many, but I doubt whether we shall see our way through to April without having further reconsiderations of the financial position into which we are moving. I suspect that by January, in the depths of winter, we shall need another touch on the tiller, if not a complete change of the course on which we are moving. It is for that reason that I am somewhat depressed tonight.
  7.37 p.m.
  Mr. John Lee: I have considerable sympathy for the hon. Member for Caernarvon (Mr. Wigley) and his constituents in some of the predicaments to which he referred, although I do not necessarily agree with him. It may be that some special provision can be made to assist or to relieve those who live in rural areas of some of the more unfortunate effects that might stem from the imposition of a high duty on petrol.
  I feel bound to say that that increase in duty is regarded as disproportionately significant compared with the overall difficulties of our energy situation. I should not have been in the least sur-

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  prised if the tax upon petrol, levied by whatever method, had not proved to be considerably greater. I braced myself for a higher increase than has been announced. In the context of the acute energy crisis that this country faces, it was not too much to expect.
  I hope that a great deal of research will be devoted to diversifying our sources of energy, to using such unusual sources as geo-thermal energy, solar energy, tidal energy and so on, to supplement the four main sources referred to earlier by the hon. Member for New Forest (Mr. McNair-Wilson).
  However, it is not that aspect of the Budget to which I wish to pay attention. I echo the view of the hon. Member for Ealing, Acton (Sir G. Young) when he referred somewhat scornfully to appeals for national unity as being almost a statutory obligation nowadays. It is certainly not an obligation that I accept. At best, it is muddle-headedness, and at worst it is based on cant. The fact remains—and Conservatives had better begin to understand the present misfortune in which they have landed themselves——that the working-class people of the country are no longer prepared to accept not just inferior differentials in earnings, but an inferior life style. This is probably the explanation behind the collapse of the Tory working-class vote in the big cities.
  When the Leader of the Opposition talks about appeals to national unity, he is asking us to abandon the policies which recognise that situation. If we were to do so, we should land ourselves in an even worse industrial situation than the one we now have.
  If the hon. Member for Staffordshire, South-West (Mr. Cormack) can bear it—I see he has just left the Chamber—I found myself in some agreement with certain of his comments about proposals which might have been included in the Budget. I think that there might have been a cut in road programmes, and that his suggestion on taxes on luxury goods would have been reasonable.
  The Budget is neither all good nor all bad. Like most Budgets, it is, like the curate's egg, good in parts. We on this side welcome the land development tax. We certainly welcome the capital trans-
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  fer tax, which is long overdue. The Chancellor referred to estate duty as being a voluntary tax. That was not rhetoric, but a statement of fact about the way in which such matters have existed for far too long. One's only questions are whether the rate will be high enough and whether it will be effective enough, in time, to ward off an even graver industrial siuation which may arise if the rates are not high enough? I do not know what will be said about that, but it seems that we have had to wait a long time, and at the end of the day the end product is not all that impressive.
  The main weakness in the Budget—and I think that some of my hon. Friends below the Gangway will agree with this—is that its central strategy is the release of about £800 million to shore up a reluctant and mutinous private industry, with no guarantee that it will cease to be mutinous and cease to be reluctant in its investment programme. After all, Mr. Anthony Barber was responsible for providing £3,000 million tax relief. The result of that, in terms of investment, was anything but impressive, so one should not necessarily expect too much under these circumstances. If it fails, Treasury Ministers must explain to us what they are prepared to do to put the matter right. I hope they will be prepared to take over the private sector of the economy.
  I do not know for how long it has been accepted as folklore by Labour Members that we have to live indefinitely with a mixed economy. It is certainly not what I was elected to this House to expound. I have always fought marginal seats, and I have never echoed those sentiments. I have always understood that it was our task to take over the economy, or at any rate its commanding heights, and, one would have thought, the significant foothills, too. The sooner the Government recognise that, the better. They may find themselves having to do so, because, if, as a result of providing tax relief there is no significant and substantial increase in investment, they will be faced with an acute dilemma. There will either have to be further tax concessions that may not necessarily find their way into investment, or they will have to take over investment, as in wartime.

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  I hope the Minister will give us an indication of what will happen in that eventuality.
  My hon. Friend the Member for Berwick and East Lothian (Mr. Mackintosh) referred to a danger that is always present, or at any rate that has been with us since the Conservatives so unwisely introduced convertibility, namely the danger of a run on sterling. He then propounded a solution which, I should have thought, was almost totally unacceptable to us all, namely, that somehow we should rely upon our European partners to bail us out in that situation. Considering how difficult it is to get them to agree to equitable budgetary and regional policies, I regard that as an extraordinarily optimistic diagnosis.
  I consider that the necessary action would be for the Government to reintroduce emergency powers. I can never quite understand why, having come into office last March with the emergency powers inherited from the previous Government, although they had been introduced for a different purpose, the previous Government having decided to have a punch-up with the miners, we should not have maintained those powers. They are wide ranging and can be applied to a host of different matters totally unconnected with industrial relations.
  I imagine that the reason was that emergency powers have always earned a bad name in the mind of the Labour Party, because every proclamation of emergency powers that has been made since the Emergency Powers Act 1920, as far as I recall, has been directed at organised labour. But the powers may be used for other purposes, for example, to end the convertibility of sterling or to block movements of funk capital out of the country.
  There were references in both the Chancellor's speech and, I believe, in the speech of the Leader of the Opposition, to the effect that, somehow or other, the inflow of capital into this country was always to be welcomed. I cannot believe that that is right. On more than one occasion we have suffered through hot money coming into the country and disappearing almost as quickly afterwards, often in circumstances of considerable embarrassment.
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  I should have thought that one of the very few things that Mr. Barber did that was any use at all during his unfortunate tenure as Chancellor of the Exchequer was to impose some kind of restriction at a time when money was flowing in at a particularly alarming rate. Mr. Barber recognised, at least on that occasion, that money that came into the country could go out again very quickly.
  Budget debates, like debates on the Queen's Speech, are wide ranging. I turn now to a subject totally different from any raised so far, of which I hope hon. Members will take note. I have reason to believe that those in charge of the Department of Trade have the matter very much in mind. I refer to the reform of company law. I submit that it is relevant to raise the matter in this debate because so much Government money is being spent by way of subventions to private industry, with enormous contracts such as Concorde or the Channel Tunnel. I had the pleasure of voting against the Channel Tunnel motion last night.
  One of the acute problems facing any Government today is the control of expenditure, not just in the broadest strategic sense but in the control of individual contracts. Those contract costs tend to increase out of all proportion to what was originally envisaged. Has there ever been a major construction contract the cost of which has not increased time and again? Concorde may be the most acute and horrible example, but it is not the only one. Does anybody truly believe that if the unfortunate Channel Tunnel project finally receives the approval of the House, as I earnestly hope that it will not—[HON. MEMBERS: "Hear, hear".]—my hon. Friends may be right; I hope they are—the estimates given now will be anything like accurate compared with the ultimate cost? We all know that they will not.
  I suspect that one of the reasons is that audits of expenditure by public companies are thoroughly inadequate. I understand that that matter will be dealt with in the near future by one of the numerous Bills that we are promised on the reform of company law. Nevetheless, I want to make some suggestions as to what I believe ought to be included in relation to that aspect of company law reform. I should have thought that it would be a very good thing to start with if auditors

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  were made responsible directly to the Department of Trade and not to the companies concerned. It would probably be a very good thing, too, if they were appointed by the Department, and if their terms of reference were such that they were required to inquire into the efficiency of the expenditure which they monitor. At present, as the House knows, the auditor of a company is required to challenge only expenditure which is improper. He is not required to pass judgment on the economic efficiency. He is not required—indeed, he has no power—to disallow expenditure.
  One contrasts that with the situation in Government Departments. I draw for a moment on my experience as a civil servant working abroad years ago, when the Department of Audit could march in on a Government Department. Even if the expenditure were of a perfectly proper kind, if the auditors felt that there had been waste or inefficiency, the particular administrative officer with control over that allocation of money might well have found himself visited with a surcharge.
  It may be that we need to introduce into company law the sort of powers which hon. Members of the Opposition are so pleased to have seen used recently in relation to one or two local government cases, although there again, I suppose that they would say that what the auditors were doing was disallowing that which had not been properly authorised. I am asking for something wider than that. I believe that auditors of a company should have the power to question and to challenge inefficient expenditure.
  That is not the only reason for the escalation of big contracts. It may well be that the nature or the scale of the work makes it impossible for them to be completely controlled, but at any rate, I suspect that my suggestion is of some use in relation to this matter. We shall probably never get to the bottom of the matter until we have far more cost and works accountants and far more quantity surveyors.
  Mr. Dennis Skinner: There are too many already.
  Mr. Lee: I am afraid that I disagree with my hon. Friend. The fact is that they are a very useful profession and we do not have nearly enough of them.
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  We could use those we have rather better.
  As this is a wide-ranging debate, I turn briefly to one other matter which is of wider significance than the debate. I do not know whether Opposition Members still continue to be hostile to consumer subsidies. One gathers from one Opposition back bencher that that is still the case. Bearing in mind that the cost of living, whatever measures are taken and however fortunate and skilful the Government may be, is bound to go on rising, I should have hoped that we would be quite prepared to increase considerably the consumer subsidies this coming winter. Everyone agrees that this will be a rough winter and that people at the lowest end of the income scale will bear the brunt, as they always do in such situations.
  Before returning to the House as a Member, I read a report of a Conservative Member bewailing the fact that if we were going to introduce consumer subsidies that were really effective, we should need an expenditure of up to £1,500 million. I think that he overstated his case because, whatever may be said to the contrary, the food subsidies that we have introduced have undoubtedly alleviated the lot of many people, Rut we need to carry this matter a good deal further. I hope that the subsidies will be reviewed over the next few months and that the Minister will not hesitate to increase them.
  It is argued, of course, that we are subsidising the well off as well as those who are not well off. The real argument in favour of the general subsidy is illustrated by what happens if one does not have it and relies upon a system of application. We all know this from the fiasco of the family income supplement. At various times nearly 50 per cent. of those who might be eligible for FIS have not been able or have not had the "nous" to apply for it.
  The real weakness of selective social service payments and of selective welfare, as we all know if we examine the case objectively, is that the people who need the most are so very often those who are least articulate in our society and least able to make a case in their favour or have the least initiative to apply. That is the case for the generalised subsidy.

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  It is humbug for people to argue that we are subsidising those who do not need it.
  I hope that my hon. Friends will take note of those observations and that we shall be successful with this Budget. I am bound to say that I have misgivings as to how far it will be effective. It is the most grave crisis imaginable. I should not have been in the least surprised, nor would I have been offended, if the rates of taxation had been considerably higher. I hope that we shall not have to return in a few months' time having to do something more, to introduce another intermediate Budget because the Government's strategy has not gone far enough or fast enough.
  Certainly my hon. Friends would be prepared to put up with a good deal. I believe that the whole country is prepared to do so. Although the Leader of the Opposition lathered himself into indignation this afternoon in suggesting that only now is the truth coming out, if there is one thing which impressed all sorts of people during the recent election campaign it is that even people hostile to the Labour Party, some of whom said to me when I was canvassing that they were not prepared to vote for me, at least had the grace to concede that we had made no bones about saying that it was a serious situation.
  In that context the people of this country will put up with a good deal, provided that the Government are really fair and effective.
  7.58 p.m.
  Mr. David Mitchell: I join with the hon. Member for Birmingham, Handsworth (Mr. Lee) when he almost refers to the Budget as "the Budget that never was". I do not join with him in his call for the complete takeover by the State of the rest of private industry. I regard that as dangerous, unsettling nonsense of just the sort which kills the confidence of industry and drags down the prospects of investment.
  This is the third Budget in six months. In the spring Budget the Chancellor hit at business, at the saver and at the investor. In the July Budget he reduced VAT in order to encourage consumption prior to the General Election. Now, in his Budget today, he has gone some way
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  to undo the damage he caused by his two earlier Budgets.
  First, for business he has done something to ease price controls, and on consumption he has done something to end the subsidies to the nationalised industries, which I believe to be absolutely right. I hope that my right hon. and hon. Friends will feel able to resist the temptation to attack the Chancellor for doing so. Such a move will be unpopular but it is, I believe, profoundly right that we should not subsidise the nationalised industries, especially those using energy in one form or another, since that will only make worse our basic problem.
  Four basic problems emerged quite clearly from the Chancellor's speech this afternoon—the balance of payments, inflation, unemployment and investment. The last is bound up with the other three. The Chancellor referred to the fact that oil-consuming countries must accept massive deficits and borrowings or we shall be in for a 1930-type slump. What exactly does that mean? To me it appears to mean that he is whistling in the wind and hoping that others will come to help us out. However, I noted in the Bank of England quarterly review last quarter a reference to the fact that there is a limit to the amount that we should be able to borrow abroad and a limit to the amount that those abroad would be prepared to lend us unless we start to put our house in order. One of the things that worries me is that on the balance of payments the Chancellor appears to be relying on faith, hope and international charity, and I am not sure that we can rely on those for very long.
  On inflation the Chancellor seems to be relying on price increases to take up excessive consumption caused by the failure of the social contract. This must be looked at realistically. Four factors enter into a price change. The first is the commodity or raw material cost, the second is the tax paid by the company, the third the profit made by the business and the fourth wage inflation. By the last I mean paying ourselves more for the same amount of production so that the unit cost goes up.
  While commodity prices rose savagely last year, many of them have fallen in the past few months and have moved in no overall general direction. The tax increases imposed by the Chancellor in

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  his spring Budget are affecting the costs to industry. I am sorry that the House does not have the advantage of listening to a former Labour MP who was removed from the Labour benches because he failed to toe the party line and was opposed by an official candidate and defeated at the last election.
  Mr. Skinner: He was one of yours.
  Mr. Mitchell: He was a junior Minister in the previous Labour Government. Of course I am referring to Mr. Dick Taverne. In the debate on the spring Budget he explained the direct relationship between tax increases and their effect on prices. There has been a tendency on both sides of the House to overlook the direct link between these two factors.
  I now come to the question of profit. We all know how the true profits of British industry have been falling drastically and dangerously over recent years. I know that profit is a dirty word, but without profits there can be no investment and no jobs. Falling profits are not only a matter for this Government.
  On wages the Government are relying on the social contract, an arrangement between themselves and the TUC. I have a simple question which I hope will be answered in the wind-up speech tonight. [HON. MEMBERS: "There is not one."] What is the TUC doing to try to secure fulfilment of the social contract? When the Conservative Party introduced the Industrial Relations Act it became apparent that the TUC really did have teeth because any union which failed to de-register as it was instructed by the TUC was promptly flung out. The TUC has strong disciplinary powers if it cares to use them. In what way is it using them to see that the social contract is enforced? The reality is that the Government have abandoned hope of that happening and are forced back to control of the money supply as the only real policy with which they can tackle inflation.
  The Chancellor said that the true nature of the problem was the danger of unemployment. This is an important factor. Why is unemployment rising so fast and with little prospect of a limit to the increase? There have been several reasons. There has been a cut-back in expansion and investment, a lack of con-
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  fidence, a shortage of cash and a degree of uncertainty in British industry greater than anything I have known since I became involved in political life.
  The principal cause of these factors and the cause over which we have control has been the savage attack on private enterprise by the Government since they came to power. The remarks by the hon. Member for Handsworth further indicate the depth of contempt the Labour Party has for the private enterprise system. It is succeeding in killing the goose that lays the golden egg. Our entire standard of living and social services provision through which we seek to help the weakest in the community depend on the success of the private enterprise system which is being savagely attacked.
  The spring Budget contained increases in corporation tax just at the time when industry needed more money to pay for dearer raw materials The advance corporation tax took millions out of industry just at the wrong time. The Chancellor said today that he would give part relief for stock appreciation to companies which are now paying corporation tax and which are showing in their accounts profits which are wholly phoney and do not exist, but he has excluded the smallest businesses from those provisions. All small businesses whose stock is worth less than £25,000 are to be denied the benefit the Chancellor have given to other companies.
  The Chancellor talked gaily about making extra provision for them in 12 months' time, but how many of them will have gone bankrupt before then? I participate in a Committee in the House which looks after the interests of small businesses. I think that we shall have to rename ourselves The Committee for the Preservation of Bankrupt Small Businesses, for by the time the Chancellor's relief comes next year many businesses will not be in existence to claim it.
  The Chancellor tells us that the business community will be able to go to the banks. The business community cannot go to the banks for its money, as the banks will lend on what they call a good risk, to a business that is creditworthy. To a banker, a creditworthy business is one that can repay within about three years in cash. What industry needs is money for long-term investment, money to put into

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  stock and work in progress, and into the purchase of raw materials, buildings and machinery. It is no use borrowing from a bank, when the bank wants cash back, if all that one can say is "You can have a bit of that building, or some of my machinery that is getting worn out."
  The Chancellor says that if businesses want long-term finance they should go to Finance for Industry, the old ICFC. That is no good, for that body demands a share in the equity, and many small businesses are not prepared to bring in a total stranger to have a share in the equity of the business.
  Mr. Lee: Why not?
  Mr. Mitchell: That question shows only too well how little the hon. Gentleman knows about the motivation of small businessmen.
  The whole situation is made worse by the threat of the wealth tax hanging over the smaller business sector. Proprietors of small businesses are told by the Chancellor that in the not too distant future they will have to pay a capital levy on the whole value of their assets. Most small businessmen have all their assets locked up in their business, which means that they must keep back cash to pay the levy, because they will not be able to give the Chancellor a slice of their factories. At a time when industry should be investing, when it is in the national interest that it should do so, businessmen are holding back for fear that they will need the money to pay their wealth tax.
  Mr. Dan Jones: The hon. Gentleman should keep in mind that in the statement of my right hon. Friend the Chancellor there was a reference to £1,000 million which will be lent to people such as he has described in the form of institutional lending. That is a sound idea. My right hon. Friend's scheme is infinitely better than the schemes advanced by the Tory Chancellor who, when in difficulty, printed money. If the hon. Gentleman wants a full exposition of that statement he needs only look to his left, to the right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell), where he can find it eloquently expressed.
  Mr. Mitchell: It is all very well for the hon. Gentleman to talk about printing money. With a £6,300 million borrowing requirement this year no Gov-
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  ernment in history have printed money in the way the present Government are printing it. The Chancellor will go down in history as Mr. Inflation. Let us have no pussyfooting on that issue.
  The Chancellor made an important point about unemployment being the central problem. The cut-back in investment by industry is central to that problem. The uncertainty about the Common Market has a substantial influence, for there are many companies whose main overseas market is in Europe. They know that some time next year they may find that they are cut off by the Common Market external tariff from the opportunities of selling in Europe. That uncertainty must mean that many boards of directors will say "We shall not lay out capital to increase production facilities when we do not know whether they will be required, when we do not know whether we may find ourselves partially locked out from our best overseas market".
  There is also the threat of the National Enterprise Board. The hon. Member for Birmingham, Handsworth appealed for the end of the mixed economy. What dangerous nonsense that is. Such speeches frighten private enterprise out of its wits. They frighten private enterprise into saying "It is not worth while investing, it is not wise to take risks, because if we fail we get nothing, and if we succeed the Chancellor or the Labour Party will see that the fruits of our success are confiscated".
  Mr. Lee: Is not the point that even under a Conservative Government, when there was no Labour Government in the offing for several years, certainly not one on the Left—even if the present Government could be called Left wing, and there may be argument about that—with £3,000 million remission of taxation, the investment just did not take place?
  Mr. Mitchell: The hon. Gentleman obviously has no comprehension of the way in which the businessman's mind works. It is not the remission of tax but the prospect of profitability that is the criterion that decides investment. Unless there is profitability, with policies that will bring profitability for some considerable time, the investment decisions are not taken. From the time a business

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  man decides to make an investment it takes about six months before he starts to place the orders, and another 12 months before that investment is seen on the ground. During the period in which there were tax reductions under the Conservative Government there was never long enough for the effects to work through properly.
  If we were not suffering from a Labour Government we should be seeing a greater degree of confidence and investment in industry today. The present situation of industry can be compared with that of a person who is told that the local council will compulsorily purchase his house in six months' time. Would that person be expected to spend money on decorating the house or putting in new drains? When the Labour Party threatens to take over successful and unsuccessful businesses left, right and centre, with no particular criteria to guide it, is it surprising that people in industry say, "We will not spend money on investment the return from which is so uncertain"?
  I turn to the fourth and, I believe, most important of all the problems. The Chancellor spoke of our slipping back compared with other countries in Europe. He said that our investment was falling behind, and that that was related to our inability to pay high wages. I agree. That was the most important and most profound statement in the whole of the right lion. Gentleman's speech. When British workers are the salt of the earth, why are they the lowest paid in Europe? The answer is that there is less capital behind each worker in this country than there is in the equivalent countries of Western Europe.
  Success in industry is based upon a tripod of management, capital and worker, and there is, I believe, a cycle of deprivation at work. There is too little capital, which means too little profit and too little money available to pay high wages. When high wages are extracted there is too little profit to provide sufficient capital for investment, and so we are back again with the cycle of too little capital leading to too little profit per worker.
  If this is, as I believe it is, central to the basic problem which affects British
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  industry today, the Chancellor of the Exchequer ignores the logic of his own case at his peril and at the nation's peril. He is forgetting that we cannot get investment by destroying the investor and that we cannot create capital by clobbering the saver. People cannot be persuaded to invest money if their capital is being taken away by a wealth tax.
  It is a sad and sorry fact that the motivations of envy which seem to inspire the Labour Party nowadays are motivations that are robbing industry of its proper flow of capital, leading to less capital per worker and, in turn, to the worker suffering from lower earning ability. The Chancellor has failed to face the reality to which he drew the attention of the House today. Because he has failed in that way he should stand condemned in the eyes of the House, and he will, I believe, prove to be condemned in the eyes of the country in the months ahead.
  8.21 p.m.
  Mr. Frank McElhone: I have listened to the criticisms of the Opposition, particularly the criticisms of the hon. Member for Basingstoke (Mr. Mitchell), but I am sure that tomorrow's newspapers will record that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer struck a fair balance in his Budget today.
  It has been pointed out by all hon. Members on both sides of the House that we face a serious economic situation, for which no one has a panacea. Confrontation and many other measures have been tried over the past 25 years, but we must be honest and say that no Chancellor of the Exchequer has yet got the situation exactly right. There have been attempts to curb rising unemployment and, at the same time, control inflation. These are great imponderables which no one has been able to solve.
  I hope that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor will not regard me as churlish or petulant if I make some criticisms of his speech. I do so with particular regard to the Scottish context of his proposals. I am deeply concerned about his proposal to remove subsidies from nationalised industries, which could have a significant effect on the Scottish economy. The steel industry in Scotland is in a serious position. A Government

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  Minister is expected in Scotland within the next few days to tell the Scottish steel industry that it has to lose almost 5,000 jobs.
  We accept that much of our steel industry is obsolete and that there must be changes, but we are concerned with the timing of the changes as well as the method. I accept that nationalised industries have responsibilities to the taxpayer, but these industries have social responsibilities as well.
  There has been much talk about other countries, particularly those in Europe. Anyone who studies industries in Europe will know that nationalised industries there receive substantial subvention from central Government funds. I presume that it is proposed to remove subsidies from all our nationalised industries. I hope that the Chancellor will explain the time table for this plan.
  Gas and electricity prices in Scotland are much higher than in other parts of the United Kingdom. Gas cookers, for example, are much more expensive in Scotland. That is a valid complaint, and one which was made by the Scottish Nationalists during the General Election campaign. The great merit about this Government, and the last Labour Government, is that they have been seen to be fair in spite of difficulties. I ask the Chancellor to re-think this proposal. In the City of Glasgow there are thousands of all-electric houses. One of the deep concerns of the social work department of the Glasgow City Corporation is the number of families who have had to leave their homes, not only because of the effects of the Tory Rent Act but because of the high cost of electricity. If we are now to ask the low-wage consumer to meet the commercial costs of electricity we face a serious social problem.
  What value is there in trying to produce a commercially viable nationalised industry if it results in a great burden being placed on the social services? The Treasury will lose out financially over the years. I make a strong plea for the Chancellor to reconsider this proposal, at least in Scotland.
  I was pleased to hear my right hon. Friend say that there would be help for the construction industry. This is particularly welcome to the special development areas in Scotland. I would have liked
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  to hear him specifying more clearly his proposals for helping house building. I must add a note of caution here. In a recent speech the Secretary of State for the Environment suggested that because of the economic situation we might reduce building standards. Many of the social ills of our cities today stem from the fact that we built low standard council houses which did not help the environment or the families who lived in them. I hope that the proposal to reduce standards will not be taken seriously. It, too, will be costly.
  I am not an economist but I have received complaints from several constituents about the abuses in the secondary banking sector in the past year or so. I would have expected secondary banking to loom large in my right hon. Friend's statement, because of the loss of confidence in it. Many poor people have lost money as a result of other people speculating.
  I want to be brief because I recently signed a motion calling for 15-minute speeches. I cannot sit down, however, without referring to the pensions increases. These and the substantial increases in family allowances are more than welcome. They indicate compassion and concern on the part of the Chancellor for these groups in our society. There has been strong criticism from Tory benches about the repayment of the £10 million to the trade unions. We must spell it out quite clearly that this is not an abuse of the law. It was an abuse of the law by the Conservative Government which took the money from the pension funds of trade unionists. The loss of that money would have a serious effect on the families of trade unionists. I hope that the Liberal Party and the Scottish National Party, who combined with the Conservative Opposition to defeat us in the previous Parliament, will re-think their attitude. The Scottish people gave their answer at the last election, and I hope that hon. Members representing Scottish constituencies will have the good sense to vote with the Government on this measure.
  The Chancellor is in a difficult situation bearing in mind all the options that are open to him. It has been said that his statement is like the curate's egg, good in parts. In the main I support my right hon. Friend who has struck a fair balance

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  which will be seen by most people to be fair, and I hope that he has majority support in the Lobby on Thursday night.
  8.30 p.m.
  Mr. Cyril D. Townsend: Perhaps my main qualification for taking part in the Budget debate is that I am no economist. No one who heard the Chancellor of the Exchequer introduce his two previous Budgets can avoid being astonished at the turn round in his approach today; if the Chancellor is not a new man, he is certainly a wiser man who has learnt from some of his mistakes. Unfortunately, the country has had to learn from those mistakes day by day, and it has been painful for all concerned.
  The Chancellor remains a puzzling man to me. From time to time he dons the mantle of the elder statesman, and from time to time he cannot resist making the most outrageous statements. I will mention just two. We remember the charge about conscription prior to the 1970 election. During the recent election we had the nonsense over the 8·4 per cent. It has not been sufficiently emphasised that when the Chancellor made that comment about inflation being at that level it was not after a last drink in a working men's club in the Midlands late at night, having been caught out by a zealous reporter. On the contrary, it was during a carefully stage-managed Press conference at the start of the campaign. I only hope that the Chancellor is tonight regretting that statement because it has undermined his whole position as Chancellor of the Exchequer at a time of national crisis.
  For the first half-hour this afternoon many of us thought that we might have been listening to a Conservative Chancellor, until the right hon. Gentleman made a foolish attack on savings income. As Iain Macleod once said, such income has been earned and saved, and often it is the harvest of a good man's lifetime. I can only suspect that it was a sweetener for the Left which, on the whole, must have had a pretty sore afternoon. However, the proposal will be long held against the Chancellor in many small homes in my constituency, which is not a rich one.
  One of our major problems this evening is that we are not au fait with the basic
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  facts about the increased prices to be charged by the nationalised industries. It is hard to make rational intelligent comments on the Budget when those key ingredients are missing. I accept that prices charged by the nationalised industries must go up. I regret that the previous Conservative administration allowed the deficits to mount to an irresponsible level. In recent weeks British Rail reported a loss last year of £52 million. There has been a loss of £130 million for coal, £40 million for gas, £128 million for the Post Office and £176 million for electricity. That gives us some idea of the scale of the problem. The charges must not be put up too quickly—
  Mr. Dan Jones: It is only fair that the hon. Gentleman should recognise that publicly-owned industries have been commanded to keep prices down. That is the explanation. I do not deny the hon. Gentleman's figures.
  Mr. Townsend: I entirely accept that. That is why the previous Conservative administration did it. The Conservative Government were conscious of the problem of rising prices. All I am saying is that I believe that it was the wrong approach. I suggest that the present Government should not make that same mistake.
  May I quote from an article in The Times on 28th October on the nationalised industries? Referring to the leaders of the publicly-owned industry the article said:
  "These men are stumbling through an unprecedented period of difficulties, lepers in Whitehall and unloved by their customers as services deteriorate under deficit fnancing …"
  We all know there is a lot of truth in that.
  "The chairmen of our State enterprises have become second class citizens. Their pricing policies are controlled by others, whatever the prices code may say. Management confidence is at a low ebb. Employee morale is beginning to fall."
  I agree with those comments and I should like to add just one more. Mr. David Nicolson, the Chairman of British Airways is quoted as saying:
  "I believe we need neither doctrinaire left-wing policies nor doctrinaire right-wing policies now, but rather some good old doctrinaire management policies. Can we not start by taking the public sector of industry, which we

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  are going to have to live with in our lifetimes, out of the arena of politics and ensure we learn how to operate it efficiently?"
  I certainly back him in that statement.
  I am not against grants for carefully costed capital projects. But let us allow the nationalised industries which are able to get out of the red to do so. A few weeks ago I visited the British Gas Corporation, and more than one manager told me how keen they were to be allowed to make a profit. They believed it would be feasible to do so, that it would help morale considerably and would not impose a too-savage price increase on the consumer.
  The Chancellor referred to cuts in public expenditure. We have been forewarned in solemn tones about their size. What a pity we could not be told the details this afternoon. Parliament is often in a false position when calling for cuts at local level. After all, it is Parliament that imposes obligations on our local councils.
  It looks as if the ratepayers are in the hot seat once again. In my part of the world the rating system is breaking down. I foresee real problems in the future if we put too much of a burden on the ratepayers. My own local authority, Bexley Council, has been faced with a huge bill as a result of HA cement being used in certain schools. To keep their budget down to within, say, an increase of 50 per cent.—and they have had savage cuts already—and to meet that bill, can only be done, in my view, by damaging the educational prospect of those in the area. Will that council have further charges put on it as a result of what we heard this afternoon?
  I turn briefly to the increased tax on petrol. I represent a commuter area. As the train service is so inefficient, many of my constituents, of necessity, have to come to work by car. There are many policemen in my constituency, and the hours that they work make the use of public transport impracticable. I believe that the increased charges will impose a real burden on many people in my constituency, and I have listened to many of my hon. Friends who represent agricultural areas talking about the problems for those areas.
  Nevertheless, it is important to relate costs at the petrol pumps to import costs. I welcome this proposal. It is a tough decision to make, but I happen to think
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  that it is the right one. I only wish that at the same time the Government had done away with vehicle excise licences and the resulting bureaucracy.
  Briefly, let me welcome the pensions proposal. I believe that the best thing in the long run is to have a six-monthly review.
  A word about borrowing—and this frightens me. We are continuing to live well beyond our means. We seem to have great faith in our international creditors. We can only hope that our international creditors continue to have great faith in our country.
  I was very relieved that the Chancellor did not mess around too much with VAT. I am not sure whether the Treasury realises the problems resulting from the 8 per cent. figure. To the brilliant brains in Whitehall 8 per cent. presents no mathematical problems, but I recently spoke to an official concerned with VAT in my constituency, and I understand that the 8 per cent. is creating a lot of difficulty. It would have been a disaster to go in for multiple rates to deal with luxury items. I only hope that in the long run we shall return to 10 per cent. and have fewer items included.
  May I say something about inflation—the principal problem? That brings us, of course, straight to the hole in the middle of the social contract. Unfortunately, one remembers only too well the Prime Minister's solemn and binding pact with the unions that was not solemn, not binding and, of course, not kept.
  Need I remind the House that the social contract was only dreamt up before the February election? I do not know about other hon. Members, but I found, during the last election, that this pact between a minority Labour Government and a major sectional interest was strongly resented by many. If a Conservative Government or, for that matter, a Liberal one had such a pact with a pressure group—be it the motorists, the farmers or the shopkeepers—I believe that that, too, would be bitterly resented.
  I do not deny that the trade unions are a most important estate of the realm, but what about those 14 million non-union workers? The Leader of the Opposition carried out many long and detailed talks with the Confederation of British Industry and the Trades Union Congress. It was

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  a major change in the conduct of economic policy, far in advance of anything tried before or since. I regret that the present Prime Minister apparently simply collected his route card from the TUC. It was a case of "There go the trade unions. I must find out where they want to go so that I can lead them".
  In return, the unions have demanded a whole list of items, two of them being defence cuts and picketing. I for one believe that the proposed defence cuts are utterly irresponsible. I know that many hon. Members opposite have forgotten that this is one of the few countries in the Western world without conscription—that is right, we should not have conscription—but that surely places considerable moral obligation on us to make sure we pay a fair whack.
  I shall not go into the subject of picketing, but I believe that a slackening of the rules is part of the contract, and a part that we on this side of the House certainly oppose.
  The unions' demands appear to escalate. Now it is the wealth tax. Next, will it be choice in medicine or schools?
  Everybody knows that the social contract is not working and many trade union leaders will make sure it does not work in the future. Ray Buckton said on 23rd June that he would not be shackled by any social contract between the Government and the TUC. Arthur Scargill on 16th June said:
  "The NUM has only one social contract—a loyalty to the membership. There can be no contract with a capitalist system."
  I need not remind the House that industrial strikes are up compared with the first few months of last year, or of the recent events in Scotland.
  The Prime Minister has recently shown signs of wishing to widen the social contract. He is right in endeavouring to do that, but unfortunately he is in an impossible position after his past comments and actions. If there could be a proper social contract between all the people of this country and the elected Government I believe that that would be a sound way forward. Clear guide lines would have to be laid down for controlling inflation. That is what the social contract must be about if it is to mean anything.
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  This Budget had a chance to do something about the cash crisis in industry and about industrial confidence. For cash, I believe some help has been given, although I suspect not enough, and only time will tell. But almost certainly the Budget did not do enough for confidence.
  I do not believe that the Government could do more to restore confidence than by removing the present Secretary of State for Industry and giving him a different job.
  Labour's third Budget is now before us. It has failed, as did its two predecessors, to match up to the level of events, and it has failed to match up to the seriousness of our crisis.
  8.45 p.m.
  Mr. Dan Jones: The hon. Member for Bexleyheath (Mr. Townsend) referred to himself as an economist.
  Mr. Townsend: No.
  Mr. Jones: I am sorry. It was my mishearing. I intended saying that, if that were so, he is certainly a naive creature where trade union affairs are concerned. I must not devote much time either to the hon. Member or to his references to the social contract, but, since I was for many years a trade union official and I know something about the social contract, I cannot allow his remarks to go unchallenged. This is 1974, and for all this century and before the trade unions have been shackled principally by those who exploited the workers, and by their representatives in the Tory Party, and I find it difficult to believe that the remarkable transformation now brought about by the Trades Union Congress will not create the spirit that I firmly believe the social contract richly deserves. But I ask the hon. Gentleman and his hon. Friends to display at least some fair intelligence and an elementary spark of justice and realise that, if the social contract is only 75 per cent. successful, by Heaven, it will have made a solid contribution towards our economic well-being. There will certainly be a distinct difference from the industrial confrontation brought about by the hon. Member's own party.
  I do not want to pursue that line, although I easily could because, imperfect creature though I am, I am saturated with the experiences of a trade union

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  official, and some of them would make salutary reading.
  Mr. Townsend: Does not the hon. Gentleman agree that the success so far of the social contract has been achieved mainly as a result of giving way? Anyone can obtain industrial harmony by always saying, "Yes, it is yours".
  Mr. Jones: I go so far as to agree that the social contract is not all that we desire, but, if that contract achieves a 75 per cent. dividend, it will be a marked and solid contribution to our economic well being, as distinct from the confrontation in which the hon. Member's party engaged. More than that I will not say.
  I revert now to the Budget. Unlike many hon. Members, I have been in this game for many years. I want to bring to the attention of the House one vitally important factor in relation to Labour Chancellors. I remember distinctly the late Sir Stafford Cripps. I go back more than 25 years; because Cripps was then arguing precisely the same kind of theory as has been argued today and, if I may say so, arguing it not only as a Socialist, but as a Christian. I do not think that there is any Member who looking back to those days could ever dispute the fact that Cripps earned both those titles—an honest-to-goodness Socialist and a deep, equally honest, Christian.
  I bring Cripps to the attention of the House today because at that time I distinctly remember the national Press and the Tory Party dismissing Cripps with the name "Austerity Cripps", as though even at that time austerity was some kind of economic disease. I remember it so well and now, 25 years on, we still have not solved the problem that Cripps was arguing then. When members of the Tory Party make an adjudication upon Labour Chancellors they should train their memory as well as their partisan approach to these problems. I did not come into this game yesterday—I have been in it for many years. I could name other Chancellors. Let me speak of the Chancellors in the 1964–66 Parliament and the 1966–70 Parliament who, by 1970, transferred the largest deficit in the history of our country into the largest credit in our history. Is there any Tory Chancellor who have ever brought about such a
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  remarkable feat as that? If there is, I want to know who he is.
  Certainly the present has not done a perfect job. Who on earth with a measure of economic altruism would expect him to do a perfect job in the circumstances in which he finds himself now? I will not go into too great detail because, like the Leader of the Opposition, I want more time to study it. I think that that goes for about nine-tenths of the Members of this House.
  Interrupting myself, I know from experience that between now and half-past three tomorrow the Financial Times, The Times and The Guardian will be studiously read so that prepared speeches can be made tomorrow from this side of the House as well as from the other side. But the debate must go on today. We are expected to give our own impressions of the Chancellor's measures.
  Without being too dogmatic, I think that what the Chancellor has achieved is to see to it that the solution to the terrible burdens now unfortunately pressing themselves upon the economy of the nation will be borne substantially by those with the broadest backs. In short, the poorest elements in human society—the old-age pensioners, people with large families—will have an opportunity to survive the ordeal that undoubtedly will prevail in the next two years. To me, at any rate, having been brought up in a poor home, that means something of true substance.
  I pay homage to the Chancellor for the fact that, notwithstanding our difficulties, he has succeeded in doing that. He has promised that by April next year old-age pensions will go up again. The £10 Christmas box, though it was certainly originated by the Tory Party, will be applied this year. He has also said that family allowances will be increased. One must record the man's humanitarian approach.
  The Chancellor has done another thing that appeals to me very much. The Tory Party has always held the opinion that for some reason or other we are prejudiced against private industry. Frankly, I have always regarded that as an asinine conclusion to offer to the House. The fact that certain industries, because of the difficulties of getting capital to invest in them, were taken into public ownership to my mind has never justified the Conservative Party and sometimes the Liberal

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  Party as well—though looking at the Liberal benches tonight, one wonders where on earth they are—claiming that because we have done that, we have demonstrated a prejudice against private industry. Seven out of every 10 employees in the country are in private industry. How on earth can we preserve anything relating to full employment if we are prejudiced against private industry?
  I was very much in agreement with the Chancellor when he said that no less than £1,000 million was to be drawn from institutional investment in order to lend to these people so that they may have the fluid capital necessary to make some effort to reconstitute their industries and maintain employment within them. Of course we want to promote that. Indeed, I interrupt myself to say that I wish the Conservative Party had the same lack of prejudice against publicly-owned industry as we demonstrably have against privately-owned industry. I think what the Chancellor has done with regard to institutional lending is a case that justifies that point.
  Here again I talk about the former Chancellor, who has now left the House, and in passing say that he has consolidated himself rather well in private industry. However, I do not think—and here I speak without prejudice—that anybody in this House laments his going. It is a fact that many times from 1970 to 1974, when he was in financial trouble, he printed money, and there is no more royal road to inflation than that. Indeed, anybody who needs any guidance on that should ask the former right hon. Member for Wolverhampton, South-West, now the right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell). He told the Tories time and time again of the harm they were doing to the basic economic needs of our country.
  For that reason, I must say that we listen with a certain amount of justified scepticism to any remarks such as that made by the hon. Member for Bexleyheath with regard to subventing moneys to publicly-owned industry when we remember that.
  May I make one brief reference to the Leader of the Opposition? We all know that he is making desperate efforts to retain the leadership of the Conserva
  360
  tive Party. Greatly daring, I hope he succeeds, because, frankly, I am damned if I know who could succeed him, such is the paucity of talent now on the Tory benches.
  Mr. Deputy Speaker (Sir Myer Galpern): The hon. Member must not keep staring at me in the Chair.
  Mr. Jones: I beg your pardon, Mr. Deputy Speaker. I take it that you yourself are not disinterested in the remarks I made.
  The Leader of the Opposition said that the Chancellor's efforts were likely substantially to increase local authority rates throughout the country. He should remember what some of his Ministers did during their period of office. It is within my recollection, and, I am sure, within the recollection of Members in the former House, that his Government brought about local government reform. It would be a most useful exercise to find out the high local authority officials who resigned then at the ages of 54, 55 and 56, some eight or nine years before their normal retirement age, and find out how much in silver—or perhaps even golden—handshakes these people had. That was a definite result of the early retirement of people brought about by the reorganisation of local government, which to my mind was undoubtedly an act calculated to be, as it has been, an instrument that gave greater power to the Conservative Party.
  The Leader of the Opposition may therefore be well advised—here I am greatly daring—to have a more comprehensive knowledge of what his Government did with regard to local authority finance before blaming this Chancellor for increasing rates by his Budget proposals.
  I conclude my contribution, of such value as it is, by saying sincerely to the Government that, whatever economies they will be forced to adopt in the next months, or, possibly, the next year or two, nothing they will do should prejudice the building of the Central Lancashire new road—the Calder Valley Highway, the M65.
  Successive Governments, and I include mine, have caused injury to this area. So many hon. Members, some on this side, but more on the other side of

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  the House, believe Burnley and North-East Lancashire still to be an old cotton belt. They could not be more mistaken. There is more engineering in that area today than ever there was when cotton was at its full economic height.
  In 1969, I was told by my right hon. Friend the Minister for Transport—he was in the same office then—that the M65 was going to be built. That was five years ago and, in the meantime, not a sod has been cut in order to make that road a practical proposition. What has happened? Successive Governments have advised the local authorities—particularly Burnley—to prepare for this highway, with the result that houses have been requisitioned, some tenants, found alternative homes, and other houses have been lived in by people in impossible conditions. Wittingly or otherwise—and I prefer to believe it otherwise—blight areas have been caused that are a disgrace to any town.
  I say to the House, not without feeling, having been in those homes recently, that there is a marked contrast between the new homes built and the homes that have been declared empty for the reasons associated with the road. The latter have caused a blight on the lives of people—never mind the area—that is quite indefensible and intolerable. It should be realised that these measures have substantially been brought about as a result of Government references—both Governments, for I know of Ministers in the previous Government who gave firm pledges that the road plan would proceed, in just the same way that I had pledges in 1969 from Ministers in my own Labour Government that the road would be proceeded with.
  Here we have a town that for over 100 years has made a handsome contribution to the economic well-being of the country. I think of places such as Milton Keynes and others within an hour's ride of London that have made little or no contribution to our economic well-being, yet Government expenditure in those areas has been massive and it continues. I am sorry if I register a measure of feeling in speaking this way, but I find it unavoidable. If that is justice, I am a Dutch man.
  It is not justice, It is not remotely connected with justice. I repeat, I am
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  advocating that road which could mean so much for employers in the area in terms of expansion and for new employers coming into the area, because it is an established fact that wherever employers go they have a right to expect reasonable communications. They should certainly have better communications than apply in my area today.
  The road is needed for the human reason connected with the people who live in those blight areas. The local authority cannot provide houses overnight, and if the national economy were to catch a chill, North-East Lancashire might easily catch pneumonia. We must guard against that. With respect to my loyalty to the Labour Party—through the years I have served here, no one has questioned that loyalty, although at the same time I have sought to speak the truth—I owe a similar or even greater degree of loyalty to the people who sent me here as their representative.
  In the name of those I represent I ask the Government, humbly and earnestly, that whatever economy measures they may be forced to adopt in view of the national economic situation, they will not apply those austere economies to my part of the country, which has served the nation so extraordinarily well
  9.7 p.m.
  Mr. R. J. Maxwell-Hyslop: There is a restricted number of points in the Chancellor's Budget speech today to which I want to draw particular attention. I follow for a moment the closing comments of the hon. Member for Burnley (Mr. Jones). He is undoubtedly right.
  The Select Committee on Public Expenditure, Trade and Industry Sub-Committee, of which I am a member, took evidence for its reports "Public Money in the Private Sector" and "Development Area Policy" on what were the most effective inducements the Government could offer to businessmen to set up new enterprises. Were they loans? Were they regional economic premia? Were they shadow factories, tax concessions, or what? The bulk of the evidence put before that Committee, whose report, incidentally, was unanimous, was that a good road system is the best single inducement any Government can offer because it is something which does not disappear when Government changes, and represents

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  a permanent lowering in costs for the enterprise which comes to that area.
  We have similar problems in the South-West, and the argument that has just been put forward by the hon. Member for Burnley for the area that he represents applies equally to the area from which I come, and which I represent.
  That leads me to protest as vigorously as I can about the increase in taxation on petrol. In many rural areas there is not an alternative to the private car or motor cycle. The bus services, which the Chancellor rightly points out are exempted from this measure, are non-existent in many of these areas. The car is not a luxury in such areas. It is an essential means of personal transport. Studies which have been published in the Press recently indicate very forcefully that at any price, certainly at below £1 a gallon, the demand for petrol is not price-elastic. It is not, therefore, an argument for the Chancellor's proposed measure that this can be expected to reduce consumption of petrol and, therefore, the burden on our balance of payments.
  It was extraordinarily foolish of the Chancellor earlier this year to reduce VAT from 10 per cent. to 8 per cent. but then to extend the taxation on petrol. He would have done much better to have left VAT where it was, at 10 per cent., which is easily calculated, and to have had a lower taxation burden on petrol. As it is, he then, and again now, has greatly increased the unavoidable costs of living in many parts of this country.
  Some people who live in London have got into the habit of thinking that driving a car is some sort of indecent luxury. For many of us it is an essential, because there is no alternative transport to and from work or to and from medical, educational, shopping and other facilities. In deliberately increasing this cost the Chancellor is knowingly increasing the disparity of incomes between those in the peripheral areas of the country and those in the much more privileged areas in the centre. This follows as night follows day. If one increases the cost of living much more in the peripheral areas—and those who live in them are more dependent on the car—than one increases it in the central areas, one again increases the disparity.
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  Even at this late hour, therefore, I beg the Chancellor to have another think and to bear in mind that there is no evidence that the sort of change he is proposing in this Budget will result in any reduction of imports of hydrocarbons. That could be tile sole justification for his measure.
  The Chancellor referred to finance for small enterprises which are exempted from his proposals. His proposals are intended to assist the liquidity of larger enterprises. Whether they will do that is another question. Off the cuff, he mentioned the name of the body which is now an amalgam of the old FCI and ICFC as though this were a useful source of finance for small enterprises. It is just about a useless source of finance, not a useful one.
  In my constituency a firm took over a milk factory which closed down. It needed working capital so that it could provide employment which was previously provided by Express Dairies. It contacted ICFC and was told that it could have the money, but at 17 per cent., which, at the time, was even more than the bank wanted. It would also have had to tolerate the interference that went with the money. This is not an alternative source of capital.
  The general manager of ICFC, which is supposed to be useful for the capital needs of small enterprises, gave evidence to the Trade and Industry Sub-Committee on the Public Expenditure Committee during its investigation into "Public Money in the Private Sector". He disclosed then that agriculture, the largest single industry in terms of turnover in Britain, received just about no support or assistance from ICFC. That industry is now starved of capital and is in most desperate straits.
  I listened with something approaching disbelief and wonder as the Chancellor delivered an excellent lecture on the merit of dismantling subsidies which concealed from the public and the economy at large the true cost of providing services. A very worthy lecture it was, but sitting two seats away from him without even blushing was the Secretary of State for Prices. She has recently been responsible for increasing the subsidy on cheese at a time when she very well knows that there may be little or no home-produced

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  cheese by next spring because of the shortage of milk.
  The Chancellor was preaching the merit of removing distortions of this kind from the economy—and he made a very cogent case for doing so—and was telling us that nationalised industries should put before their consumers the true cost of providing services. I do not criticise him for that, but how can he do that when his right hon. Friend is engaged in doing the exact opposite? There is no consistency perceptible in the policy of a Government who follow such an asinine and harmful course of action.
  What we need in agriculture and what the consumer will appreciate in a year's time when the only meat available is cow meat is a rescue operation for the livestock sector. This need involve no extra charge to public funds if the money presently thrown away in ludicrous subsidies, like the one on cheese, now running at over £100 million a year and designed to persuade people that an increasingly expensive and scarce commodity is cheaper than it really is, is diverted elsewhere. If that money were switched to a rescue operation for the livestock sector some sense at long last would be injected into Government policy.
  It would be a no good rescue operation simply increasing returns to producers, because of the shortage of fodder. That shortage will mean that a third of our livestock herds may literally starve to death this winter. Merely supplying more purchasing power to drive up the cost of the available fodder without doing anything else will not keep one more beast alive. It might divert marginal quantities of sugar beet from the hard-pressed sugar extraction industry into animal fodder.
  It is quite clear what the Government must do. They must buy from 10,000 to 20,000 beasts a week. That is between 5,000 tons and 10,000 tons on the hoof per week, and, at a 60 per cent. cutout, about 3,000 tons to 6,000 tons of edible meat each week. That meat should be taken off the market and canned, not frozen. If it is merely taken off the market into cold storage, which costs £1·50 a ton per week, that will not have the desired effect on market prices, because everyone will know that it is deteriorating in cold storage, waiting to be
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  released to wreck the market again at some time in the future. Whether the meat is then kept for strategic stocks or sent to areas of the world where there is starvation on a massive scale is a political choice for the Government of the day.
  Mr. Dan Jones: The more the hon. Gentleman speaks the more he puzzles me. I seem to recall reading about, and seeing on television, a group of farmers in the hon. Gentleman's area who were selling newly slaughtered meat so cheaply that people were coming from all over the country to buy it. If the hon. Gentleman can make a handsome profit—those are his words—why is that not generally done in the area?
  Mr. Maxwell-Hyslop: Perhaps the hon. Gentleman does not know the requirements for slaughtering meat for human consumption.
  Mr. Dan Jones: No.
  Mr. Maxwell-Hyslop: One cannot just slaughter one's animals and sell the meat to the public. In nineteenth-century Britain that could be done, but today it cannot. One must have a licensed slaughterhouse which is properly inspected. Normally we should expect to have about 55,000 prime beasts slaughtered each week. Last week slaughterings totalled 81,000. Even at that rate, up to one-third of the remaining herd may starve to death this winter because of shortage of fodder. The effect on breeding stocks will be seen in 18 months to three years, when there will be a chronic shortage of beef, and the housewife will wring her hands and curse the Government who took no action. On the contrary, the Government are spending public money to perpetuate the myth that what is in short supply and expensive to make is in abundant supply and cheap to make.
  I have today been making inquiries which lead me to believe that the manufacturing capacity is available in Britain for the kind of rescue operation that I recommend. There is no point in recommending action that cannot be put into practice because the capacity does not exist. By February, when many of the 50,000 people employed in processing milk throughout the United Kingdom may be on short time or out of a job because

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  there is not the milk to process, those factories that are clear for processing foods under the public health regulations, and whose employees are used to the necessary hygiene standards, could be engaged on canning beef instead of processing the milk that is not available.
  It is clear from what the Chancellor said today that we can expect another massive increase in rates and water charges. This Budget was the last occasion for the Government to announce what action they were to take. Clearly they did not make an announcement because they do not intend to take action.
  The hon. Member for Burnley referred to golden handshakes. The present Secretary of State for the Environment, speaking from the Dispatch Box on the Government side of the House when local government reform was being considered, accepted the Redcliffe-Maud recommendation on behalf of the then Government. Had it been decided in connection with local government reorganisation to have no authority between parish councils and county councils the number of golden handshakes would have been much greater than they have been, because there would have been no second tier authorities.
  The Liberals wanted to impose yet another layer of local authority at regional level, the consequences of which would have had to be paid for by the unhappy ratepayers. I note that there are no Liberal Members in the Chamber at present, but we are used to that. Neither are there any Scottish nationalists, Welsh nationalists or Ulster Unionists present, but those of us interested in public finance will probably recall what the Liberal Party's attitude was on this matter.
  Mr. Dan Jones: The hon. Gentleman is not quite correct in what he says. I was working for the Minister involved at the time of the Redcliffe-Maud proposals and it is not true to say that he accepted them. In regard to Lancashire, particularly north-east Lancashire, my right hon. Friend recommended unit 21 which would have had the reverse effect to that suggested, with less officials.
  Mr. Maxwell-Hyslop: It is a matter of public record that the right hon. Gentleman the present Secretary of State for the Environment accepted the
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  Redcliffe-Maud recommendations, and we must remember that Redcliffe-Maud did not recommend having a local authority between parish councils and county council levels, although there was recommended a different configuration of county councils from that which now exists.
  The liquidity position of small businesses will become even more desperate because of the Chancellor of the Exchequer's failure to extend to small businesses what pitiful relief he is offering to large businesses, and because of his failure to transmit from central Government taxation resources to local governments funds to mitigate the increases that he has predicted. We must bear in mind that grants from central Government, as announced by the Secretary of State for the Environment, do not in any way help business ratepayers. They help only domestic ratepayers. The position of the small business ratepayers is going to be parlous. Shortage of capital is endemic. It is no good saying that banks are to be asked to be more lenient in their lending. Banks will lend money to enterprises only if they can see that the money will be used in a way that will at least generate the interest that will be due on the loans.
  In agriculture and in many other forms of enterprise the money being lent by banks today does not generate sufficient return to pay loan interests of, say, 16½ per cent. It is no help to those enterprises to be loaned money at rates of interest that they cannot service. Such a situation would lead to doom.
  I hope that the Chancellor of the Exchequer will ponder carefully the points I have put forward before we deal with the Financial Resolutions. It may be he has not set out to sound the death knell of the small enterprises in this country. We must remember that mighty oaks from little acorns grow, and that the large enterprises in this country were once small enterprises.
  The Chancellor has done nothing to help those small enterprises which are, by definition, the enterprises that do not have recourse to the money market and the share issue market for raising equity capital. Those firms are the majority employers in rural areas, and I do not doubt, in many non-rural areas too. Their position is now even more exposed than it was before the Budget.
  9.29 p.m.
  Mr. Caerwyn E. Roderick: I want to comment on a few points made by the Chancellor. I am concerned about his remarks on energy costs and his comment that publicly-owned industries must be made self-supporting in the long term. I am concerned about the effect of this on the social contract. If we need to conserve energy, particularly hydrocarbon products, then the answer is surely to ration these products. The Chancellor is proposing a system of rationing by price. I would prefer to see physical rationing introduced because we on the Labour benches believe that we are here to protect the lower-paid and the less well-off. Surely rationing by price is no part of our philosophy.
  The Chancellor said that he wants the publicly-owned industries to balance their books, especially gas, electricity and coal. I know that these industries have been starved of investment funds. For a time I worked in the coal industry and I saw how money was wasted hiring equipment rather than buying it. The Coal Board's financing system is such that it could finance the borrowing required to hire equipment but could not finance the massive capital investment needed to buy that equipment. This was a thorough waste of money.
  I know that we need increased investment funds in industry. But many of us have assumed that the publicly-owned industries were to be different, that their policies would be governed by social needs as well as by the profit motive. We must not forget that cheap fuel subsidises private industry. It is frequently said that the National Coal Board is subsidised by the Government, and that is money thrown down the drain. It is, however, an indirect subsidy to private industry and not a complete loss.
  We must support coal, gas and electricity, not only to keep down the overall cost of living, but to keep down the direct cost of living. What concerns me is that the ordinary family will suffer if these commodities are made much more expensive. The attendant effect of such increases in costs must reflect itself in subsequent wage claims. Where do we stand with the social contract then?
  One part of the Chancellor's speech cause me particular concern. He seemed
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  to suggest that the National Enterprise Board would simply carry out baling out firms that were failing but would leave the successful firms alone. This is certainly not the NEB I envisaged. I hope that this will be corrected. I want the whole community to benefit from the profitable industries which can, if necessary, use their profits to help industries which find it difficult to be self-supporting.
  I welcome the increase for old age pensioners. Who would not? I also welcome the raising of their tax threshold. I make a plea for the tax threshold of all taxpayers to be raised and for special provision to be made for single-parent families and single-member households. They are suffering from serious difficulties and are coming into the tax bracket much too early. They have the same basic needs as families. There is nothing special about age which warrants tax relief for some but not for others.
  I beg the Chancellor also to return to the system of reduced rates of income tax. There is now an immediate jump into the standard rate. This system is less progressive than the one to which we have been accustomed, and we need to cushion the impact of entry into the tax threshold.
  I am disappointed with the proposals for family allowances. Last week I was told by the Treasury that if child tax allowances were abolished there would be a gain to the Treasury of about £1,220 million a year. That sum could be used to supply £1.90 per child per week, including the first child. It would also supply young people over 19 who are in full-time education. It is assumed that the payments would be untaxed. Surely that would be a step forward to help families who are in real need. The burden would be borne by people like ourselves who can best bear it, and the lower paid would get the full benefit under that scheme. On the assumption that this money would be untaxed, there would surely be even more available if the payments were taxed.
  Representing, as I do, a rural area, I am deeply concerned about the proposed increase in the price of petrol. The Chancellor said that public transport would be protected, but we have no public transport. People who earn the most modest wages are compelled to own cars

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  to enable them to get to work. It is all very well discussing the proposal in the context of the cities, but I ask my right hon. Friend to believe that my constituents do not usually drive around unnecessarily in Jaguars. Visitors may do that. Many of my constituents have to travel great distances to their work, and they receive wages which on average are about £4 a week less than the United Kingdom average. Will my right hon. Friend set his mind to the problem of finding a formula to help people who are in that position?
  Whilst I am a supporter of the principles embodied in the proposals for capital transfer tax, I am delighted that there will be certain exemptions for the working farmer. Our policy for many years has been to encourage by various financial incentives the amalgamation of farms of small acreage. It would be contrary to that policy if we were to encourage the fragmentation of such holdings which might be necessary (o enable a capital transfer tax to be paid.
  I hope that the Financial Secretary will carry the messages I have tried to give to the Chancellor, because they could be embodied in a future Budget, if necessary, in April.
  Debate adjourned.—[Mr. Coleman.]
  Debate to be resumed tomorrow.

  CAPITAL TRANSFER TAX
    ADJOURNMENT
    Motion made, and Question proposed, That this House do now adjourn.—[Mr. Coleman.]

  M23 (LONDON)
  9.37 p.m.
  Mr. William Shelton: It is with great pleasure that I take the opportunity of bringing forward a situation which is causing great distress and nardship to many of my constituents. It is, in brief, the projected routeing of the M23 as it approaches London.
  I am asking for two things. First I ask that the M23 should stop at Hooley, to which it is being built at the moment, linked back to the southern orbital road and not proceeded with into London. Secondly, and almost as important, I ask
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  that a decision should be announced as quickly as possible, because the lack of decision is causing great hardship.
  Here is a short history of the matter. Seven years ago an inquiry approved the continuation of the M23 from Crawley into London, terminating in the southern part of my constituency. At that time no linkage was discussed at all. Building as far as Hooley was approved, and that will be completed, I understand, within the next year or two. Five years ago it was decided to define the northern terminal and the links with the then Ring-way 2. The terminal remained in the southern part of my constituency, and links were proposed with Ringway 2, but there was no public inquiry. However, due to public disquiet the suspension of any plans beyond Hooley was announced, pending review. That was five years ago. To date, there has been no significant decision.
  Two things have happened. In 1972 we had the results of the Layfield inquiry, which was generally in favour of ring-ways and radials and was specifically in favour of bringing the M23 into London but linking it to Ringway 1 by Parkway East. The second event was the GLC announcement that it would not build Ringway 1. We are still awaiting an announcement from the Government about it.
  Nevertheless, for five years the line has been protected and the links also have been protected. That situation may seem sensible to the Government and their advisers, but I say with as much vehemence as I can at this time of night that it is neither logical nor sensible to my constituents.
  As far as the blight is involved, some 200 or 300 houses are affected by it in the eastern linkage alone. Properties are standing empty, and shops are falling into disuse. Those who wish to buy in that area are having problems with mortgages, quite understandably. There are fly-by-night traders. This is all because of the blight and the lack of decision by the Government.
  It is true, of course, that the Department or the GLC will buy properties directly affected, directly in the proposed path, but it is a small proportion compared with the numbers that are affected and are not in the proposed path. These

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  people are suffering hardship. I could take the Minister—whom I welcome—to visit a shop which is owned by an elderly person who desperately wishes to retire. It has been his source of livelihood, but he cannot sell the shop. It is not in the line of the route. No one will buy it. Why? Because it is blighted. He is stuck, in his early 70s, in failing health, trying to eke out a miserable living from a shop which no one will buy. It is a very sorry situation.
  I appreciate that the Minister, no doubt, will reply, as he has replied in his courteous correspondence with me, that the matter must be considered within the whole road programme for London, but I would make two points. When I took a deputation to see the Secretary of State for the Environment in the previous Conservative Government I was given a pledge that an announcement would be made by the spring of this year. The election came and no such announcement was made. Nevertheless, at the end of last year it was thought possible to make an announcement the following spring; we are now in November, and I think that that is too long.
  Secondly, the situation has changed because, as I said, the Greater London Council does not intend to build Ringway 1, and I understand that a London rail study is shortly due and it will show improved public provision in that area, which might well change the need for public transport. That is why, to return to my first request, I should like to see the M23 not proceeded with beyond Hooley—I should like it to be linked back. If it does come into London it will have neither Ringway 1 nor Ringway 2 with which to be linked. There will thus be coming to London a radial not connecting to any orbital, and I need hardly say that to proceed with this motorway right through the urban centre of my constituency will not only destroy countless homes, of which we are desperately in need, but break up many good communities of which this nation—London, certainly—is also in need.
  Nevertheless, even in the worst event, if it were decided to proceed with the M23 and build it into some sort of Ring-way 1, such as was recommended by Layfield, why must we still protect the links with a non-existent Ringway 2? We have protection not only on the route of
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  the M23, but of two enormous spurs which were to link with Ringway 2, and under no possible or foreseeable plan or provision can one envisage any need for those two spurs when Ringway 2 is not to be built. I therefore implore the Minister at least to free the planning provision, to remove the blight, from those spurs immediately, even if it means leaving the provision for this mythical M23.
  The Department may say that the east link to the A23 remains viable as it might have to be widened, that the west link to the A24 is needed to form a delta into London. Anyone who knows the area and consults a map will realise that this is nonsense. Without Ringway 2 it is inevitable that the M23 traffic will proceed as far as it is permitted to go on the M23—in other words, into Ringway 1 if such a ringway is built. If that ring-way is not built we must stop the M23 at Hooley and perhaps provisionally strengthen some of the minor roads from the M23 into London.
  Finally, for the sake of my constituents I ask that the M23 should be stopped and that a decision should be made known as soon as possible.
  9.45 p.m.
  The Under-Secretary of State for the Environment (Mr. Gordon Oakes): I am obliged for the cogent way in which the hon. Member for Streatham (Mr. Shelton) presented the case on behalf of his constituents.
  I fully appreciate the affects of blight in an area. It can be a damning effect on any area not only in the immediate line of the route suggested but in surrounding areas where people feel that no longer can they decorate or assuredly get a lease for their property because the suggested route of a motorway is within their area.
  I know that the hon. Gentleman's particular concern is with the northern section of the M23, and he asks that this route into London should be ended at Hooley rather than continue nearer to the centre of the city.
  It may help the House if I say a word about the M23 and its wider setting. The A23/M23 corridor is a major radial route to London serving the south-east coast centred upon Brighton. At the present time it is proposed that the M23 shall run from its northern terminal point

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  to "The Delta" in Streatham Vale, to which the hon. Gentleman referred, which is within his constituency, to Pease Pottage south of Crawley, with a link to Gatwick Airport. The motorway is divided into two lengths, being split at Hooley, immediately north of Redhill, where it is being temporarily connected to the A23. The length between Hooley and Pease Pottage is due to be opened next month.
  The two motorways interconnect at Merstham immediately to the east of Redhill. This junction will enable traffic using the M25 to join the M23 and, under the present proposals, to enter the GLC area travelling northwards and thence to the dispersal point at Streatham Vale. Progress on the section northwards from Hooley, as the hon. Gentleman told the House, has been delayed.
  The House will be aware that any route northwards from Hooley would cross the GLC boundary within a few miles, and it may be helpful for an understanding of the problem, which the hon. Member for Streatham has raised, if I explain the division of responsibility between the GLC and the Secretary of State. The Greater London Council is responsible for the improvement and construction of metropolitan roads, and my right hon. Friend has the responsibility to provide and maintain a national system of trunk roads. Trunk roads comprise the national system of routes for through traffic. Because their function is of national rather than local importance, they are financed entirely by the Government. My right hon. Friend is responsible for those in England and he has a duty to keep the trunk road system under review considering the requirements of local and national planning. These routes are designed to form a network of high-quality roads connecting major towns throughout the country and serving major ports and airports. The hon. Gentleman will be aware that this route is one of the routes connecting with Gatwick Airport.
  Within a major urban area, however, the interests of local traffic are likely to predominate and the principal and other local roads are, quite rightly, the responsibility of the local authority.
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  The route of the northern section of the M23 is fixed as far north as Mitcham. Draft proposals for extending it further northwards towards Streatham Vale with links to the A23 and A24 were published, as the hon. Gentleman said, in 1969. But the relevant schemes and orders have never been made. It was agreed by the GLC and the Ministry of Transport in 1967 that, in accordance with the council's policy at that time with regard to radial routes, the M23 should not extend inside the proposed C ring, which was later named Ringway 2.
  It was also decided that links from the motorway to the A24 and the A23 should be built as an integral part of the northern terminal for the motorway on an alignment which could ultimately be incorporated into the GLC's Ringway 2.
  As the Department's programme for starting construction of the urban part of the M23 was at that time about five years in advance of the GLC's programme for the section of Ringway 2, it was agreed that the Department would undertake the statutory procedures and construction and when the GLC provided other parts of Ringway 2 it would take over the links and make an agreed payment to the Department of the Environment.
  Following publication of the draft schemes and orders in 1969, about 1,500 objections were received. In December 1969, as the Minister of Transport at that time, my right hon. Friend announced that in view of the large number of objections, some by local authorities, which had been made to the published proposals, they could not satisfactorily be considered in isolation from the proposals for Ringway 2 in the Greater London development plan, and he had decided to review the M23 terminal proposals before proceeding further.
  My right hon. Friend announced also that he did not propose to arrange for a separate inquiry to be held in the meantime. The review continued, but it was not possible to reach any firm conclusion before the report of the Layfield inquiry panel into the Greater London development plan, and that was published, as the hon. Gentleman knows, in February 1973. In its report the panel

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  recommends that the southerly section of Ringway 2, from the M20 in the east to the M4 in the west, should be struck out of the Greater London development plan. The panel recognised that the recommendation meant that the question of the termination of the M23 must be reconsidered, and it expressed the preference that the M23 should be continued northward to join the inner London motorway known as Ringway 1, which is, of course, a GLC responsibility.
  To coincide with the publication of the Layfield Report, the previous Government issued a statement setting out their initial conclusions on the report. This included an acceptance in principle of the panel's recommendations on Ringsways 1 and 2. The then Secretary of State said that the Government needed more time to consider the recommenadtion on Ringway 3, which was a Government and not a GLC responsibility. He said also that some provision would have to be made for orbital movements in these areas and that it would be necessary to study further whether the need could best be met by a motorway on the lines of Ring-way 3 or by other road improvements.
  After the GLC elections in April 1973, the new Greater London Council announced that Ringways 1 and 2 were to be abandoned and that it proposed instead to concentrate on public transport and traffic management schemes. It also considered that, with the abandonment of the inner ringways, Ringway 3 assumed added importance as it would provide a greatly needed route by which traffic with no London starting point or finishing point could avoid Greater London.
  As regards the M23, the GLC considered that, without the southern part of Ringway 2, construction of the M23 should not go beyond the existing terminal at Hooley and that, if Ringway 3 were built, the M23 might eventually end at Ringway 3, wherever that might be. That is still uncertain. The GLC urged the Government to complete their studies on Ringway 3 as rapidly as possible.
  The hon. Gentleman will, I am sure, understand that the issues raised by the Layfield Report and the GLC's subsequent statement are exceedingly complex, and I am sure that hon. Members will appreciate also that it would be wrong to try to reach a final decision on the M23
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  northern section in advance of completion of consideration of the overall road plan for London. Consideration of the Layfield Report is now, I assure the hon. Gentleman, in its final stages, and my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State will make a statement as soon as possible.
  The hon. Gentleman is rightly concerned about the uncertainty resulting from this delay and the blighting effect of the present situation. I fully sympathise with him on this matter.
  In my area, in the North-West, similar predicaments and situations arise from indecisions, as it were, with regard to motorways. These are largely as a result of our system of government in this country, whereby local authorities are responsible for some of our road systems and the Government are responsible for trunk roads. That is one of the penalties that we pay for our democratic system.
  I assure the hon. Gentleman that where property would be directly affected by publishing proposals it may be possible, as he knows, for it to be purchased by the Department under the statutory planning blight provisions. In fact, we already own more than 800 properties on the line of the M23, more than half of which are in the areas of the proposed northern terminal at Streatham.
  I hope I have said enough to the hon. Gentleman and to the House to enable them to understand that the problem raised by the hon. Member is extremely complex, and that because of the interaction with other road questions it inevitably takes time to reach the right decisions.
  I know the hon. Gentleman has suggested that the proposals covering the extension of the M23 from Hooley into London should be abandoned completely. But I hope that it will be understood that it would be most unwise if the present protection of the new route were to be ended prematurely before decisions have been reached on the alternatives. The permanent termination of the M23 at Hooley is a possibility that is being considered, but it would be open to the strong criticism that it would do nothing to relieve existing congestion or to improve the environment along existing routes through South London.
  The hon. Gentleman has rightly brought to the attention of the House

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  something of vital concern to his constituents, and he has my sympathy as a Minister when he brings to the attention of the House the effects of planning blight. I hope, however, that the hon. Gentleman realises that it would be wrong for any Minister to consider the M23 in isolation from the other routes affecting London as a whole. All I can say to
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  the hon. Gentleman—I trust to his satisfaction—is that, from the Government's point of view. I hope that a quick solution will be given so that the problem of his constituency will soon be remedied.
  Question put and agreed to.
  Adjourned accordingly at one minute to Ten o'clock.

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Preamble
The House met at half past two of the clock: The LORD CHANCELLOR on the Woolsack.
Prayer—Read by the Lord Bishop of Southwark.
Several Lords—Took the Oath or Affirmed.

MESSAGE FROM THE QUEEN
LORD MACLEAN: My Lords, I have the honour to present to your Lordships a Message from Her Majesty the Queen, signed by Her own hand. The Message is as follows:
"I have received with great satisfaction the loyal and dutiful expression of your thanks for the Speech with which I opened the present Session of Parliament."

MR. PAUL FOOT: COURT COSTS
2.40 p.m.
LORD HAILSHAM OF SAINT MARYLEBONE: My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.
The Question was as follows:
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether the Crown's costs in the recent contempt proceedings against Mr. Paul Foot have yet been taxed and in what amount.
THE LORD CHANCELLOR (LORD ELWYN-JONES): No, my Lords. The bill of costs has not yet been lodged. I understand from my right honourable friend the Attorney General that the Crown's costs are likely to be in the region of £1,400, but the final figure would be subject to taxation.
LORD HAILSHAM OF SAINT MARYLEBONE: My Lords, I am sure that the House will be grateful to the noble and learned Lord the Lord Chancellor for that Answer. On the assumption therefore that the figure is approximately right and may be reduced
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by taxation, may I ask the noble and learned Lord this question: is it not really a shame, with due acknowledgement to the retraction appearing this morning in The Time. that people should take a figure which is five times the true figure and then use it as a basis for "Cloud Cuckoo-land" suggestions and for traducing an honourable profession?
THE LORD CHANCELLOR: My Lords, if I may say so it is important that when these difficult matters are discussed they should be discussed on the correct basis of available information.
LORD WIGG: My Lords, would not the noble and learned Lord the Lord Chancellor agree that, quite apart from traducing a noble profession, as complaints are often made about the abuse of union power, the time has come for an inquiry into the function of what, after all, is the strongest union in this country, a union which can. in fact, mulct every member of the public, rich or poor, to any extent they like without any redress?
THE LORD CHANCELLOR: My Lords, while not accepting my noble friend's generalisations about the Bar, so far as the matter of costs is concerned they are in the last resort subject to taxation by independent officers of the Court.
LORD WIGG: My Lords, nevertheless would not the Lord Chancellor agree that there is a case for inquiry? The Bar Council is a trade union acting in the interests of its members without proper regard for the public interest, and is it not time that this matter was looked into so that the kind of statements and counter-statements which are made may be looked at in the light of an objective examination of the facts?
THE LORD CHANCELLOR: My Lords, these matters have been considered over the decades, but I will certainly consider what my noble friend has said. At the moment I am not overwhelmingly convinced that there is a case for what he is proposing.
LORD HALE: My Lords, can the noble and learned Lord on the Woolsack tell us, if an accused person charged with contempt of court is deemed to have incurred a penalty of £250, what would

685
be the term of imprisonment he would have to serve if he could not find that sum and the term of imprisonment he would have to serve in respect of an estimated £1,400 costs? Can the noble and learned Lord also explain why the figure is left at large without a clear estimate before the court and whether there are any cases in which a person charged with contempt of court has been awarded costs if the case has been found not to be proved?
THE LORD CHANCELLOR: My Lords, my noble friend has asked me a number of interesting questions which I will certainly consider. I know of no case where after non-payment of an order of costs in regard to contempt matters any term of imprisonment followed. Presumably that would be dealt with as a recoverable civil debt, and I know of no penal machinery that would normally attend upon that course, but, of course. there are some litigants so determined upon martyrdom that they may contrive every possibility of ending up in gaol.
LORD FOOT: My Lords, I do not know whether I ought to declare a personal interest in this matter, but presuming that I should, I do so declare. May I ask the noble and learned Lord, first, with regard to the costs, when the original estimate was made (I think by Mr. Paul Foot) as to what the costs would amount to, is it not a fact that when Mr. Foot gave a figure of between £7,000 and £8,000 what he was referring to was not only the costs which he would be ordered to pay for the prosecution but also the costs which he and the newspaper concerned had incurred? If that is right, is it not quite wrong for the noble and learned Lord, Lord Hailsham of Saint Marylebone, to suggest that the original figure was of a magnitude of five times the correct figure? Secondly—and this perhaps is more important—since some eminent lawyers have expressed the view since this case was heard that the court erred in law as to what the law of con tempt now is, would the Government, the Crown, be prepared to give an undertaking not to exact further costs from Mr. Foot and his publication if they were given leave to appeal to the House of Lords in order that the important matter of the present state of the law of contempt could be finally cleared up?
THE LORD CHANCELLOR: My Lords, my understanding of the matter is that application for leave to appeal was refused. I am not certain I am right in that, but I will certainly look into it. If that is so, I certainly have no power to intervene in that decision. So far as the figure of £7,500 is concerned, I understand that it was an estimate made by the defence. In some newspapers, certainly, it was attributed to the costs of the prosecution only, but the element of costs attributable to the costs of the defence would have been largely in the control of the defence itself.
LORD HAILSHAM OF SAINT MARYLEBONE: My Lords, since the noble Lord, Lord Foot, has seen fit to introduce my name without giving me notice, may I ask him whether he will accept that my reference to which he has referred was to the use of the figure of £7,500 in the Press and by the noble Lord, Lord Goodman, and had nothing whatever to do with anything which Mr. Paul Foot may or may not have said?

RATING SYSTEM: COMMITTEE OF INQUIRY
THE EARL OF KINNOULL: My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.
The Question was as follows:
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they will make a Statement on their intentions to alter the present system of rating.
THE PARLIAMENTARY UNDER-SECRETARY, DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT (BARONESS BIRK): My Lords, my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for the Environment has set up a Committee of Inquiry under Mr. Frank Layfield, QC, to review the whole system of local government finance. The Committee has been asked to report by the end of 1975 and my right honourable friend will make his intentions known when he has considered the Committee's Report.
THE EARL OF KINNOULL: My Lords, while thanking the noble Baroness for that reply, and if the Layfield Committee is due to report by the end of 1975, may I ask whether she could say why it is

687
necessary that any submissions of evidence must be made by the end of this month? Is the noble Baroness aware that a number of bodies are concerned at the rigidity of this time-scale? May we take it that the Layfield Committee will, indeed, report well before the end of 1975?
BARONESS BIRK: My Lords, we are hopeful that the Committee will report before then. I think the noble Earl, Lord Kinnoull, appreciates that the amount of evidence that comes in takes a considerable amount of time to sift, be gone through and absorbed. However, if the noble Earl has any specific body or person in mind who would want, for certain reasons, to give evidence later, perhaps he would be kind enough to write to me.
LORD SLATER: My Lords, can the noble Baroness state why this particular Committee has been set up to go into local government finance? Is it due to pressure from the County Councils' Association, the Rural District Councils' Association, or from what source? Is the setting up of this Committee on the initiative of the Minister through his Department, or of the Government?
BARONESS BIRK: My Lords, it is on the initiative of the Government; but I think it is fairly common knowledge that on the part of both the local authorities and the ratepayers there has been a great deal of disquiet on the subject of rates because of the tremendous increase in the cost of, and great increase in the demand for, public expenditure. I think I can say that the setting up of a committee has been welcomed on all sides.
THE EARL OF KINNOULL: My Lords, can the noble Baroness say what forecasts Her Majesty's Government have made on the likely increase in domestic rates in the next twelve months? Can the noble Baroness give an assurance that there will be a top limit beyond which local authorities will not be able to charge domestic ratepayers?
BARONESS BIRK: No, my Lords; I cannot give any assurance like that. As I am sure the noble Earl, Lord Kinnoull, is aware, my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for the Environment is now in the process of considering the rate support grant for 1975–76. I cannot go further than that.
LORD BLYTON: My Lords, is the noble Baroness aware that, apart from inflation, the cost of the recent Tory Party changes in local government have been achieved at colossal cost to ratepayers throughout the country?
LORD BOYLE OF HANDSWORTH: My Lords, may I ask a question on the Inquiry; namely, will the noble Baroness ask her right honourable friend the Secretary of State not to insist too strictly on these details by the end of the month? I believe there are a good many individuals, not least in universities, who would like to submit evidence, but who may not be able so to do at once. It is important that the Inquiry should be thorough from the point of view of evidence submitted to it. I hope the fullest opportunity will be given to individuals as well as to organisations.
BARONESS BIRK: My Lords, I am very grateful to the noble Lord and to the noble Earl for having drawn my attention to this matter. I shall certainly look into it, and will certainly communicate with the noble Lord as well as with the noble Earl.
LORD LEATHERLAND: My Lords, could my noble friend ask her right honourable friend to get the Committee to expedite this Inquiry? It should not take twelve months or more to investigate a matter like this which has already been investigated some hundreds of times during the last fifty years. Secondly, with regard to the deadline of December, 1975, will she bear in mind that most councils have by that date got half way through the preparation of their budgets?
BARONESS BIRK: My Lords, on the last part of my noble friend's question, whenever one brings something out there are problems attached to it. So far as the timing is concerned one immediately observes a difference of opinion. My noble friend says it will take too long and two other noble Lords have pointed out that more time is needed for evidence. It is necessary to obtain some sort of compromise between the various views.
THE EARL OF KINNOULL: My Lords, can the noble Baroness say whether, when the Houghton Committee report, Her Majesty's Government look to the local authorities to absorb the ultimate cost of

689
their recommendations on teachers' salaries?
BARONESS BIRK: No, my Lords, I am afraid I cannot. I must remind the noble Earl that that is quite a different question.

SOUTH AFRICA: SIMONSTOWN AGREEMENT
2.53 p.m.
LORD BROCKWAY: My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.
The Question was as follows:
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they will reconsider the maintenance of the Simonstown Agreement with the Government of the Republic of South Africa.
THE PARLIAMENTARY UNDER SECRETARY OF STATE, FOREIGN AND COMMONWEALTH OFFICE (LORD GORONWY-ROBERTS): My Lords, as I made clear during the Defence and Foreign Affairs debate on November 5, i the naval arrangements arising from the Simonstown Agreement are being reviewed and we shall report to the House in due course.
LORD BROCKWAY: My Lords, while thanking the Minister for that reply, may I ask him this question? In view of the argument that the Simonstown base is necessary to defend sea routes in the Indian Ocean, will Her Majesty's Government take the initiative in the Security Council to support the demand of all the Asian nations bordering the Indian Ocean to neutralise that whole area?
LORD GORONWY-ROBERTS: My Lords, we have made it clear that in the course of the Defence Review every aspect of this country's security, and indeed the international implications involved, will be very carefully considered, including the matters to which my noble friend has referred.
LORD HARVEY OF PRESTBURY: My Lords, will the noble Lord bear in mind the fact that the British merchant fleet is still one of the largest in the world and our defences arc being continually cut down by successive Governments? Ought we not to take a very
690
broad view and not mix up aparthei. with the defence of our merchant fleet?
LORD GORONWY-ROBERTS: My Lords, we shall certainly take this broad view. We shall weigh our security interests carefully against the wider British interests in Africa.
LORD AVEBURY: My Lords, does the noble Lord think that playing games such as rugby and cricket gives encouragement to the racists in South Africa, or indulging in military exercises with their forces?
LORD GORONWY-ROBERTS: My Lords, the noble Lord must not expect me to say one word against rugby. Indeed, I hope we can get away from being too punctilious about sports relationships, and can concentrate on creating the proper basis for a fruitful friendship with all countries. We are hoping that the climate of opinion may be changing in Southern Africa and that this country can contribute to that better state of affairs.
LORD SHINWELL: My Lords, would my noble friend and Her Majesty's Government have regard, in considering the situation arising out of the Simonstown Agreement, that entirely apart from the military aspects it is desirable that Simons town should be available even for the purpose of becoming occasionally a harbour or refuge for merchant vessels?
LORD GORONWY-ROBERTS: My Lords, I am sure that the noble Lord's point is very much in the mind of the Government in their very objective and detailed examination of this issue.
LORD FRASER OF LONSDALE: My Lords, while welcoming the Minister's statement that he hopes for the best—unusual for him—will he agree with me that it does not very much matter whether the Agreement is abrogated? What matters is that the port should be available for ships of all navies, on the Western side of the world at any rate, which need to refit or to get oil and water.
LORD GORONWY-ROBERTS: Yes, indeed, my Lords. This will form part not only of our Review but also of our impending discussions with the South African Republic.

BANQUETING HALL: CHILDREN'S ADMISSION
2.57 p.m.
LORD REIGATE: My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.
The Question was as follows:
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they have now completed the review of the 2½p admission charge for children to the Whitehall Banqueting Hall, which was announced on July 4, 1974.
BARONESS BIRK: My Lords, since I now deal with these matters in the Department of the Environment, I have decided to review the whole question of charges for children at historic buildings and monuments of this kind.
LORD REIGATE: My Lords, while congratulating the noble Baroness on the new duties which she has assumed, may I ask whether she can say what the abolition of this particular charge and of charges generally would cost? Also, does she not agree, in view of all the furore that there was about admission charges, that this is a particularly petty exception?
BARONESS BIRK: My Lords, regarding the charge for children at the Banqueting Hall, which is the subject of the noble Lord's Question, the amount of money there was £29 in 1973. It is because this involves other matters as well that I have decided to review the whole question. So far as the noble Lord's wider point is concerned, just as it is traditional for entry to museums to be free—and this is why this freedom was reinstated by the Labour Government—it has also been an accepted tradition that there should be a charge for entry to historic buildings and monuments. To make a complete abolition, I must say, would be impossible in these particularly difficult economic times.
LORD ROBBINS: My Lords, could not the noble Baroness make an exception in this instance, in that the ceiling of the Banqueting Hall represents one of the half-dozen best ceiling decorations in Europe and consequently can be regarded, as it were, as an annex of the National Gallery, although not legally so.
BARONESS BIRK: My Lords, as I re plied to the noble Lord, the Question
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deals specifically with charges to children. I have promised that I will be reviewing this matter in relation not only to the Banqueting Hall but to all ancient monuments and historic buildings.

RIVER WEAR BARRAGE BILL [H.L.]
Read 3a, and passed, and sent to the Commons.

HOUSE OF LORDS OFFICES
THE CHAIRMAN OF COMMITTEES (THE EARL OF LISTOWEL): My Lords, I beg to move the first Motion standing in my name on the Order Paper.
Moved, That the Select Committee on the House of Lords Offices be appointed and that as proposed by the Committee of Selection the Lords following, with the Chairman of Committees, be named of the Committee:—
Lord Chancellor (L. Elwyn-Jones),
Lord Privy Seal (L. Shehper),
D. Atholl,
M. Cholmondeley,
E. Alexander of Tunis,
C. Loudoun,
E. St Aldwyn,
E. Selkirk,
V. Eccles,
V. Hanworth,
V. Hood,
V. Massereene and Ferrard,
V. Simon,
L. Aberdare,
L. Amulree,
L. Auckland,
L. Beaumont of Whitley,
L. Beswick,
L. Bethell,
L. Byers,
L. Carrington,
L. Champion,
L. Clifford of Chudleigh,
L. Davies of Leek,
L. Diamond,
B. Emmet of Amberley,
L. Erskine of Rerrick,
L. Fiske,
B. Gaitskell,
L. Garner,
L. Granville of Eye,
L. Greenwood of Rossendale,
L. Henderson,
B. Hylton-Foster,
L. Jacques,
B. Llewelyn-Davies of Hastoe,
B. Macleod of Borve,
L. Macpherson of Drumochter,
L. Mais,
L. Mancroft,
L. Mowbray and Stourton,
L. Nugent of Guildford,
L. Orr-Ewing,
L. Platt,
L. Popplewell,
B. Robson of Kidlington,
Ly. Ruthven of Freeland,
L. Sainsbury,
L. Sherfield,
L. Teviot,
L. Trefgarne,
L. Tweedsmuir,
L. Wells-Pestell,
B. White,
L. Wilberforce,
L. Windlesham.—(The Earl of Listowel.)
On Question, Motion agreed to.

PROCEDURE OF THE HOUSE
THE EARL OF LISTOWEL: My Lords, I beg to move the second Motion standing in my name on the Order Paper.
Moved, That the Select Committee on Procedure of the House be appointed; and that, as proposed by the Committee of Selection the Lords following, with the Chairman of Committees, be named of the Committee:
Lord Chancellor (L. Elwyn-Jones),
Lord Privy Seal (L. Shepherd),
E. St. Aldwyn,
E. Perth,
E. Selkirk,
V. Dilhorne,
V. Hood,
L. Aberdare,
L. Airedale,
B. Bacon,
L. Blyton,
L. Byers,
L. Carrington,
L. Champion,
B. Elliot of Harwood,
B. Gaitskell,
L. Garner,
B. Hylton-Foster.
B. Llewelyn-Davies of Hastoe,
L. Maybray-King,
L. Molson,
L. Morris of Borth-y-Gest,
L. Nugent of Guildford,
L. Pannell,
L. Wade,
L. Windlesham.—(The Earl of Listowel.)
On Question, Motion agreed to.

PRIVILEGES
THE EARL OF LISTOWEL: My Lords, I beg to move the third Motion standing in my name on the Order Paper.
Moved, That in accordance with Standing Order 71, a Select Committee for Privileges be appointed, and that as proposed by the Committee of Selection, the following Lords, together with the Chairman of Committees and any four Lords of Appeal, be named of the Committee:
Lord Privy Seal (L. Shepherd),
E. St. Aldwyn,
L. Amulree,
L. Beswick,
L. Brooke of Cumnor,
L. Byers,
L. Carrington,
L. Champion,
L. Henderson,
B. Hylton-Foster,
B. Llewelyn-Davies of Hastoe,
L. Molson,
L. Rea,
L. Shackleton,
L. Windlesham.—(The Earl of Listowel.)
On Question, Motion agreed to.

CHANNEL TUNNEL BILL
3.0 p.m.
THE LORD PRIVY SEAL (LORD SHEPHERD)THE LORD PRIVY SEAL (LORD SHEPHERD) rose to move, That, if a Channel Tunnel Bill shall be brought from the House of Commons in this Session, any notices published and served and any deposits made in respect of a Channel Tunnel Bill in the Session 1973–74 and 1974 shall be held to have been published, served and made for the Bill in this Session. The noble Lord said: My Lords, I beg to move the Motion standing in my name on the Order Paper. This Motion follows a counterpart Motion which, in an appropriate form, was passed in another place yesterday. Its purpose is effectively to enable the Channel Tunnel Bill to resume its progress in the present Session of

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Parliament at the point where it was interrupted by the Dissolution of Parliament last September.
The Bill itself is a hybrid Bill first introduced by the last Conservative Administration and given a Second Reading in another place on December 5, 1973. Parliament was dissolved before the Bill could be considered in Select Committee: but before the February Dissolution a Motion was passed for the limited purpose of preserving completed stages of petitioning procedure and so avoiding abortive costs to the Petitioners. The Bill was reintroduced last April by the present Government and had completed Select and Standing Committee in another place when Parliament was again dissolved in September.
My right honourable friend deployed in another place yesterday the arguments which have weighed with the Government in introducing these two Motions. These are, in particular, to avoid the abortive costs whch would otherwise be incurred in reconvening the Select Committee in another place if the Bill were to start all over again; and, secondly, to facilitate ratification of the Franco-British Channel Tunnel Treaty, which is due to take place not later than January 1, 1975. Failing ratification by that date it is open to our partners in the project, the French Government and the British and French Channel Tunnel companies, to hold under Agreement No. 2 between the parties which was signed in November, 1973, that the British Government have abandoned the project. The Government fully recognise that, in the exceptional Parliamentary circumstances this year, there may still be difficulties in meeting this timetable obligation. We can, however, expect our partners to be sympathetic to the extent of allowing us such marginal leeway as may be necessary if we are seen to be doing our best in all the circumstances.
The Motion now before the House plays an esential part in all this. I need not emphasise to your Lordships a point made by my right honourable friend yesterday to the effect that the Motion in no way detracts from the interests of Petitioners against the Bill: for we in this House are not being asked to forgo any stage of our normal procedure. Petitioners who had in mind to pursue their
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case before Select Committee in this House will therefore find their rights unimpaired. So, equally, will your Lord ships as regards a debate on Second Reading and in Committee of the Whole House.
It is perfectly true that there is no precedent for this particular Motion in the sense that no such Motion has ever been carried in either House: although it may be of interest to recall that a Motion on these lines was foreshadowed in Annex II to the Report from the Joint Committee on the Suspension of Bills of 1929. But, of course, the circumstances of two Dissolutions in a single year, the second during a Recess, are highly exceptional also; and it is only the fact that Parliament was prorogued without being recalled that occasions the Motion now before the House. Had the House been recalled I have no doubt a Motion would have been moved as it was in February this year.
There are, of course, precedents for the principle of a hybrid Bill being carried over; the proceedings leading up to the London Passenger Transport Act 1933, originally introduced by the late Lord Morrison, being especially notable for being carried over twice just as this Motion enables the Channel Tunnel Bill to be. Only the element of, so to speak, revival is unusual; and here I would point out to the House that the Motion does not actually revive anything whatsoever. What it does say is that if a Bill is brought from another place procedures applicable in respect of a previous Bill shall be held to have been complied with in the present Session. There is thus in fact no revival or carrying forward of a previous Bill as such.
In reintroducing the Channel Tunnel Bill last April the Government made it perfectly clear that they were in no way committed to the Channel Tunnel but were simply keeping open the option of proceeding with it at the end of the pre sent exploratory Phase II. That, I emphasise, remains the position: and the decision whether to proceed with our partners into the third, main construction, phase is not due to be taken by Parliament until early summer next year. I hope the House will treat this Motion for what it is—as a procedural Motion and not an opportunity to debate the pros and cons of the Channel Tunnel project. That

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opportunity will come when the Bill comes before the House, I hope quite shortly. My Lords, I beg to move.
Moved, That, if a Channel Tunnel Bill shall be brought from the House of Commons in this Session, any notices published and served and any deposits made in respect of a Channel Tunnel Bill in the Session 1973–74 and 1974 shall be held to have been published, served and made for the Bill in this Session.—(Lord Shepherd.)
3.5 p.m.
BARONESS YOUNG: My Lords, I should like to thank the noble Lord, Lord Shepherd, for his explanation of this procedural Motion which is before the House, and to say that I entirely accept what he has said, that it is a procedural Motion and, as I understand it, it enables the Channel Tunnel Bill to proceed without interruption from where it was left in the last Session of Parliament. We on this side of the House fully support this Motion. It seems, for the reasons that he has stated, a very sensible way of continuing. As I understand it, the Channel Tunnel Bill is a hybrid Bill and, by using this procedure, we prevent unnecessary expenditure by those who have already petitioned and of course by the Government. But at the same time I was glad to have the noble Lord's confirmation that people who still wish to petition will be able to do so.
I fully understand that Members of your Lordships' House will have a full opportunity to debate this matter when the Bill comes to this House, as I believe it is expected to do before too long. We understand that the delay has been caused by the intervention of two General Elections in the last eight months. This is no fault of anyone, and I think it is only sensible and right that no one should be caused unnecessary expenditure, or unnecessary loss of time, by having to start the proceedings all over again on this matter. The Motion has our support, and we welcome it as a sensible way of proceeding.
VISCOUNT De L'ISLE: My Lords, I think that the liberties and traditions of Parliament are never more at risk than when the two Front Benches agree. I am not going to move the rejection of the Motion, but I do not think that it should pass without observation. The
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noble Baroness said, "We on this side of the House"; but she cannot claim to speak for all of us, I am glad to say, because we are all independent. I am not reflecting on the merits or demerits of the Bill or on the procedures, but I do not like a new Parliament being saddled with the legislation of the old. As Lord Stansgate once said, we in this House are cut flowers; we are not re elected; but a new Parliament is a new Parliament, and it is a Parliament of both Houses. I see and I understand the point about the Petitioners, but that could be taken care of by other means. I do not like a carry over, and I particularly suspect the motives and procedures when the two Front Benches agree on any proposition.
LORD CORNWALLIS: My Lords, I thank the noble Lord the Leader of the House for his explanation of exactly what this Motion means. May I also say to bim that his explanation that the Government have by no means made up their mind as to whether they are pursuing this Bill, and this Channel Tunnel project, to its finality will be welcomed by hundreds of thousands of people in the South-East area of England. I am also given to understand that full discussion in this House will now take place, because there are a great many in the South-East of England who do not think that proper discussion has yet occurred. Therefore, I am delighted to hear that, anyhow, we in this House shall have proper discussion of this very doubtful project.
3.10 p.m.
LORD MOLSON: My Lords, I am glad that my noble friend Lord De L'Isle has drawn attention to the somewhat exceptional procedure which the Lord Privy Seal is recommending in this case. I am quite sure that he is right in saying that it is important for Back-Benchers to be on the alert for the preservation of their rights, and those of the people of the country, when the two Front Benches find themselves so completely in agreement. However, on this occasion I feel that this is a very proper and wise Motion. It is one of the great merits of Parliament, and perhaps more of this House than another place, to be able to introduce a certain flexibility into procedure in order to deal with unforeseen, unexpected or unprecedented circumstances.

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We have to bear in mind that, as the noble Lord the Lord Privy Seal emphasised, the Channel Tunnel Bill is a hybrid Bill and it involves an infringement—or perhaps I should say the acquisition—of the rights of individuals, and in that way it partakes of the nature of a Private Bill. Indeed, I understand this Motion to be ensuring that the rights of private individuals will be fully preserved and that they will not be put to the extra expense of petitioning again in a new Parliament when, in fact, the matter was raised in the previous Parliament. Therefore, I do not feel that this in any way infringes the rights of private individuals. Indeed I think that it will enable private individuals and petitioners against the Private Bill portions of this hybrid Bill to maintain and establish their rights with less expenditure than would otherwise have been the case. That particularly applies to another place where matters have been argued in the previous Parliament.
My Lords, so far as the public aspects of the Bill are concerned, it might be for everybody's convenience if I said that I am glad to know that we are to have the Second Reading of the Bill in the comparatively near future. It is my intention to put down a reasoned Amendment for the rejection of the Bill on broad grounds of transport and public policy. I hope that we shall have a long and full debate upon it during which various matters can be raised and arguments can be advanced which so far as I can see have not been very fully developed in another place. It is quite natural that in another place honourable members should be concerned chiefly with their own constituents. This is a revising House which is constitutionally entitled to consider broad matters of policy and I hope that we shall have a full debate upon those broader matters during the Second Reading.
LORD PARGITER: My Lords, I will not detain your Lordships very long. In general I welcome the proposals because I think that it is always undesirable to duplicate work if you can avoid it. There is one point of which we should be aware. It seems to me that any discussion of the Channel Tunnel will be incomplete unless at the same time we discuss the question of the rail links. Unless the line of the railway is settled before we come to
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debate the Tunnel I shall want to know why we cannot have the full picture before us. To have it in two parts would be disastrous.
LORD MOLSON: My Lords, may I interrupt the noble Lord. He is raising a most important point. As I understand it, one of the greatest complications in this matter is that the acquisition of land by British Rail for the building of a new link will have to be authorised by a separate Bill, a Private Bill, which has not yet been introduced into Parliament and of which those who are opposed to it do not yet know the particulars. It is one of the remarkable complications of this policy that the position of the rail link will not be known until after this matter has been dealt with under the hybrid Bill.
LORD PARGITER: My Lords, I am grateful for the intervention because it emphasises the point I had in mind that we ought to have the whole story before we are asked to agree. I accept that the Channel Tunnel is desirable, but I think that a Channel Tunnel Bill on its own will be in grave danger of being defeated unless we know what the link up between London and the Channel Tunnel will be. I mention this so that my noble friends will be aware of the complications which might arise unless that issue is clarified.
LORD SLATER: My Lords, in view of the observations and comments made by noble Lords following the statement made by the noble Baroness on behalf of her Party, that where the two sides are able to agree on a major issue, such as that which as my noble friend introduced on this occasion, if the Government had so willed they could have dropped this matter altogether and there would have been no cause for questions to be asked on the issue to-day.
LORD SHEPHERD: My Lords, the only point that the noble Baroness and I have agreed to this afternoon is that the procedural Motion which I have moved should be accepted. Clearly the noble Viscount from the Back-Benches (I am never quite certain whether the Privy Council Bench on which he sits is a Back-Bench) was right to warn the House as to the procedure put before the House for its acceptance. He was most adequately replied to and I do not need to add to the words of his noble

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friend Lord Molson. In regard to the point raised by the noble Lord, Lord Cornwallis, I accept that there is deep concern in Kent. This is not so much on the question of the Tunnel as on the rail link. I hope that when we have had this debate I will be able to meet some of the fears of the noble Lord.
My Lords, in regard to the rail link and the Bill, the noble Lord, Lord Molson is quite right. British Rail will have to produce its own Private Bill before there can be any question of proceeding with the rail link. This will clearly take some time. I could not anticipate when British Rail will be able to approach my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for the Environment as to what their final decision may be. I want to say to my noble friend Lord Pargiter that the Bill that we will be considering is not irrevocable so far as this House is concerned. It is an enabling provision intended to enable certain things to be done. It permits work to be conducted at the site of the Tunnel. Nothing irrevocable can be done until Parliament by a resolution at some time in the summer of next year decides on the basis of all the facts and figures which will then be available whether it is right to proceed with this project. The position of the Government is what it was in April. We are not committed; we wish to keep our options open and therefore we feel that we ought to ratify the Treaty with the French which we are required to do by January 1. We need perhaps a little more time because of the two General Elections which have caused delay in the passage of the Bill. These are all matters that we can discuss most fully in a short while when the Bill comes before your Lordships' House.
LORD MERRIVALE: My Lords, may I ask the Lord Privy Seal a question which I believe is relevant to the matters being discussed now? The noble Lord mentioned that Her Majesty's Government expect from the French Government marginal leeway regarding the ratification of the Franco-British Treaty. But in view of the fact that the noble Lord, Lord Molson, gave notice of his propo sal to move a Motion for the rejection of the Bill, will the noble Lord indicate the extent of the penalties involving Her Majesty's Government?
LORD SHEPHERD: My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Molson, said that he would move a reasoned Amendment. I do not know whether that Amendment will be reasonable or whether it will be one of rejection. We shall have to wait until the reasoned Amendment is on the Order Paper. Until then I would consider that the question was hypothetical. Certainly, I do not anticipate your Lordships' House wishing to reject a Bill which is, as I have said before, an enabling measure in order that we may proceed to ratify the Treaty with the French, knowing that a final decision later next year will have to be taken by Parliament.
LORD MOLSON: My Lords, in answer to the point made by the Lord Privy Seal, may I say —
SEVERAL NOBLE LORDS: Order, order!
LORD MOLSON: My Lords, may I then ask the Lord Privy Seal whether he has noticed a Motion for No Day Named which I have placed on the Order Paper, indicating clearly in advance the line of argument that I should propose to adopt on that occasion?
LORD SHEPHERD: My Lords, I noticed that that was a Motion, but I was not in any way taking it as a reasoned Amendment.
On Question, Motion agreed to and ordered accordingly; and a Message ordered to be sent to the Commons to acquaint them therewith.

PENSIONERS' PAYMENTS BILL
3.23 p.m.
LORD WELLS-PESTELL: My Lords, I beg to move that this Bill be now read a second time. As your Lordships will know, the Bill proposes a payment of £10 which, for the vast majority of the nine million persons who will qualify, will be made next week—the week beginning November 18. The Government expect all payments to be made before Christmas.
The fundamental difference between this Bill and previous similar Bills which came before your Lordships under the Conservative Administration is that this Bill will not only apply to the elderly. The bonus payment will be extended this year to about one million people under pensionable age. Those being brought

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into the scope of the bonus payment for the first time are widows, the chronic sick and disabled who have not yet attained pensionable age.
I feel sure that the Bill will be welcomed in all parts of your Lordships' House. I imagine that my noble friend Lady Phillips will welcome the inclusion of younger widows in respect of whom she has in previous years made a special plea. Similarly the noble Lord, Lord Beaumont of Whitley, will recognise the inclusion of invalidity pensioners and the disabled for whose inclusion he put forward a very strong argument last year.
The Bill is a short one, and it will extend to Northern Ireland. Clause 1 lays down the conditions for entitlement to the bonus payment. These conditions are, first, that a person should in the week beginning November 18 be ordinarily resident or present in the United Kingdom or any other member State of the European Economic Community. For the purposes of the Bill, the United Kingdom includes the Isle of Man, the Channel Islands and Gibraltar. Secondly, a person must be entitled, or be treated as being entitled, to a payment of at least one of the certain specified qualifying benefits for a day of that week. A person who satisfies these conditions can get a further payment of £10 in respect of his wife, making £20 in all, if they are both over pensionable age.
Most wives of retirement pensioners, as noble Lords will be only too well aware, have a separate pension and will thus receive their £10 payment separately. Only one payment of £10 will be made in respect of any one person. The bonus payment will be tax free and will not affect entitlement to other benefits which are dependent upon means—such as supplementary benefit, rent allowance or rent rebate. The bonus will be paid in full to qualified persons in Part III accommodation and to those entitled who are in hospital.
Clause 2 lists the qualifying benefits which are retirement pension, including the over 80s pension; invalidity pension; all widow's benefits—whether those benefits are under the national insurance scheme, the industrial injuries scheme, and the war pensions scheme—attendance allowance; unemployability supplement,
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which is payable under the industrial injuries and war pensions schemes to persons who are permanently unfit to work; and supplementary pension. War disablement pension will be a qualifying benefit where the person concerned is over pensionable age and retired, or over the age of 70 for a man and 65 for a woman, whether retired or not.
Clause 3 deals with the administration. The vast majority of payments will be made by the Post Office. I am sure your Lordships would wish me to pay tribute to the staff of the Post Office and to sub-postmasters who will undertake this work on behalf of the Department of Health and Social Security. Other payments will be sent by post, for the most part next week and in all cases before Christmas. I wish to extend my tribute to the staff of the Department of Health and Social Security who will arrange for payments to be sent to most of the younger beneficiaries to whom payment will go for the very first time.
Clause 4 covers the financial provisions. The cost of the payments in Great Britain will amount to about £92 million, of which over £88 million will fall on the National Insurance Funds. But national insurance contributions will not be speci ally increased to meet this cost. I do not think that it is necessary for me to com mend the Bill to the House. I believe that everyone will see it as a desirable measure. My Lords, I beg to move.
Moved, That the Bill be now read 2a.—(Lord Wells-Pestell.)
3.30 p.m.
LORD ABERDARE: My Lords, I certainly welcome this Bill. As the noble Lord will recall, the whole idea of a Christmas bonus originated under the Conservative Government in 1972, when my right honourable friend Sir Keith Joseph, for the first time, introduced a similar Bill to give a £10 bonus to pensioners at Christmas. This has proved to be a very welcome payment indeed to pensioners; and it is a very pleasant thing that the State, which normally is an inhuman kind of being, is able to make this not very generous but at least token payment at this particular season of the year. I also very much welcome the fact that the Government have been able to extend the beneficiaries by a further 1 million people. Those to whom they

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intend to pay this bonus who are below retirement age are certainly well deserving of it, but of course the difficulty always is to know where to draw the line. We had a fairly reasonably defensible line at retirement age, but now that the Government have gone below that line I wonder whether there will not be a number of other deserving cases of people who will feel that they have been excluded from this bonus and will press for their inclusion.
Equally, of course, there arises a dividing line on the date of eligibility. The noble Lord has explained to us that in this case the person who benefits has to qualify in the week ending November 23. This is in fact a week earlier than applied in the case of our Bills for bonus payments. There it was December 1, and there was a good deal of criticism from the then Opposition on behalf of those people who felt that they were excluded although they qualified between December 1 and December 25. Now, I am sure, there will be a further outcry from those people who feel that they would have qualified before December I but are now not qualified because the date has been advanced by one week. Would it be true to say that the reason for this is in fact because 1 million more people have been brought into the net?
My Lords, we have always accepted that it was right to look after the interests of the pensioners at a time of economic difficulty, and we fully support this Bill. In fact, we would have gone further and proposed a review of the pension twice yearly, but that has not so far, at least, appealed to the Government. We do not criticise this sort of expenditure, which is deliberately designed to help those people who are suffering from the effects of economic difficulty; we criticise the wrong use of valuable resources when they are spread over the board in such things as food subsidies and nationalisation, which is not relevant to our present economic difficulties.
My Lords, the noble Lord said that this Bill applied to Northern Ireland, but I see from Clause 2(3) that it also applies to the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man—that is quite understandable—and Gibraltar. I have wondered why Gibraltar should be brought in, and not any
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other British territory. Why does Gibraltar benefit from this bonus payment? Why not Hong Kong and the Falkland Islands, the Seychelles and other such British territories? I should be interested to know. If the noble Lord cannot give me the answer immediately I shall quite understand because I have not been able to give him notice, but it struck me as a rather interesting point. Finally, my Lords, I join with the noble Lord in paying a very warm tribute to the staff of the Post Office, and also of his own Department, the Department of Health and Social Security, for undertaking the large amount of extra work which falls on their shoulders in making these payments.
3.34 p.m.
LORD AMULREE: My Lords, on behalf of noble Lords on these Benches I should like very briefly to welcome the Bill we are looking at now. I am particularly interested in it for one good reason. I was pleased to see that among the extra million people who are going to benefit from this bonus are people who are receiving the attendance allowance, which is a matter in which I have a great personal interest. I was very pleased, too, to see that it applies to people in Part III accommodation under the local authorities, and to hospitals. Therefore, I have no real criticism to make of the Bill at all, but rather would give it a warm welcome. One might possibly say that, whereas £10 in 1972 is now worth only about £7·40.and that it might have been fairer if the bonus had been £12·50, which would have brought it up to approximately the same amount, I think that is taking rather a carping view of what is quite a generous gesture. I should finally like to join with both noble Lords in thanking the Post Office staff for undertaking the great amount of extra work they are going to do to make this bonus available to people at the appropriate time.
3.36 p.m.
LORD WELLS-PESTELL: My Lords, I am grateful to both the noble Lord, Lord Aberdare, and the noble Lord, Lord Amulree, for receiving this Bill in the way that they have. In answer to the, noble Lord, Lord Aberdare, the exclusion of some and the difficulties that that raises is a perfectly true observation.

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I think it may well be—and here I am expressing a personal view—that we shall have to try to move towards more adequate and far better pensions for people in need of them for fifty-two weeks a year, rather than rely upon this bonus once a year. This is something which I think we shall have to look at, not only as a Government but as a nation. The noble Lord is quite right in saying that people will have to register a week earlier. About 1 million more people are being brought into the scheme, and this adds very considerably to the administration problems. Then, as some noble Lords will know, a large number of beef tokens will be issued in the very near future. I do not know the actual number, but that, too, will impose quite a strain upon the resources.
With regard to Gibraltar, I understand that Gibraltar is included because it comes within the terms of the European Economic Community, and we are obliged, as the noble Lord will know, to treat all who come within that Community in precisely the same manner. That is the explanation. As I say, my Lords, I am grateful to noble Lords for receiving this Bill as well as they have, and I trust your Lordships will now give it a Second Reading.
On Question, Bill read 2a: Committeenegatived.

SOUTHERN RHODESIA ACT 1965 (CONTINUATION) ORDER 1974
3.39 p.m.
LORD GORONWY-ROBERTS LORD GORONWY-ROBERTS rose to move, That the Draft Southern Rhodesia Act 1965 (Continuation) Order 1974, laid before the House on October 29, be approved. The noble Lord said: My Lords, I beg to move that the Southern Rhodesia Act 1965 (Continuation) Order 1974, a draft of which was laid before this House on October 29, 1974, be approved. The purpose of the Order is to continue in force for a further year Section 2 of the Southern Rhodesia Act 1965, which gives Her Majesty in Council power to take whatever measures are necessary to deal with the situation in Southern Rhodesia brought about by the unilateral declaration of independence. The Orders in Council which impose sanctions on Rhodesia are made under that section.
Since your Lordships debated this Order last year, the political situation in Southern Africa has been transformed, and, with it, the prospects of the illegal régime. I see this debate as an oppor tunity, not only to approve this necessary Order but also to appraise the situation, to indicate objectively the dangers and opportunities which that situation represents, and I profoundly hope, whatever the divergence of views expressed here to-day, to send a united message to the peoples of Rhodesia, urging them to make a fresh attempt to achieve a settlement acceptable to all sections.
The background against which we are debating the subject in 1974 is very different from that of previous years. Until recently, those who hoped that reason would prevail and that a just and honourable settlement could be achieved there had little to show in support of their faith. Repeated attempts in 1966, 1968 and 1971 to reach such a settlement through negotiation with representatives of the illegal régime ended in failure, basically because of the ruling white Party's inability to agree to proposals which had even a chance of being acceptable to the African majority. The stalemate inside Rhodesia, relieved only by the talks between Mr. Smith and the African National Council which broke down earlier this year, was matched by political stagnation elsewhere in Southern Africa. Rhodesian whites could count on support of one kind or another from South Africa itself and, above all, from Mozambique, where a futile colonial war was being waged in support of another obsolete status quo. To-day, my Lords, the situation has changed radically.
The wind of change which swept through most of Africa North of the Zambesi between 1957 and the early 1960s has now indeed reached Southern Africa. Rhodesians now, whether they like it or not, are living in a totally different world from that of 1973. It is a world in which they share barely 150 miles of frontier with another white-ruled neighbour and where the ports and railways on which they have hitherto largely depended for their trade with the outside world will soon be controlled by an African Government. The policies of that Government towards the Rhodesian régime have not yet been formalised or declared but, on the most sanguine

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assessment possible in Rhodesia, they can hardly be expected to be as sympathetic as those of the previous Portuguese Administration in Mozambique. Even South African support must now seem less of a foregone conclusion to the rebel régime than it has been in the past nine years. Prime Minister Vorster has recently manifested a new interest in the cultivation of friendly and co-operative relations with black-ruled countries to the North of the Republic and Dr. Kaunda has responded favourably and constructively to Mr. Vorster's remarks. Indeed, other Southern African statesmen, some from the South African Republic itself, have made helpful statements and that is in the last two or three weeks.
My Lords, against this background of dramatic change and of some evidence of new attitudes in Southern Africa, I should like to be able to tell the House that there has been an equally dramatic outbreak of common sense and political reality in Rhodesia itself. Unfortunately, I cannot. Mr. Smith and his associates still appear to believe that nothing fundamental has altered in their situation and that another few months or years of political repression, of ever-increasing military demands upon the white population, of guerrilla warfare and of herding Africans into so-called "protected" villages will see the régime through. The reality is totally different and it is time that the white Rhodesian people faced this reality.
The issue at the heart of the matter is, as always, mutual trust and partnership between races. Whatever their faults and mistakes, the generation of white politicians in Central Africa who tried—though they failed—to make the Federation work knew this truth and sought in their own way and at their own pace to give expression to it. Their Rhodesian Front supplanters in Southern Rhodesia have sometimes paid lip service to this fact. Well, they have now had nine years of illegal independence in which to do something about it and to live up to their own express commitment to what they call "the maintenance of civilised standards" in their country. What have they made of their opportunities? The 1961 Constitution, on which they based their illegal declaration of independence, actually committed Rhodesia to eventual majority rule, however
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remotely deferred. Even the 1969 Constitution provided for parity of representation in Parliament between the races, but at a still more distant date than that provided for in the 1961 Constitution.
This is not progress; this is retrogression. And the record of the present régime shows no sign of practical commitment to African political advance. On the contrary, every move towards political, social, economic and educational advance by Africans has been blocked and thwarted by the régime wherever possible. This has been a great mistake on the part of the present ruler of Rhodesia. Their black fellow-citizens will simply not accept a snail's pace advance towards political power at the dikta. of a relatively tiny white minority. Such a policy never had a chance of working. If there was any room for dispute about that in the past, there is little now.
My Lords, the attitude of successive British Governments has been clear: they have sought a settlement in Rhodesia in accordance with the Six Principles. This Government continue to adhere to those principles and it follows that a settlement will be satisfactory only if it enjoys the support of the African majority. I do not think that it is necessary to remind ourselves of the extent of that majority: the population of Southern Rhodesia at the last count was 6,345,000, of whom only 275,000 are white. It stands to reason that, sooner rather than later, the 6 million will participate to the extent of their numerical stake in the country in the government of their own country. We adhere to the Six Principles and, in particular, to the principle that any settlement must be acceptable to all sections of the population. This means in practice that any settlement must be acceptable to this vast African majority. Indeed, the conclusion of the Commission led by the noble and learned Lord, Lord Pearce, was to this effect; and the previous Government accepted that a settlement can only work in Rhodesia if it enjoys African support. The odds against such a settlement used to look depressingly long. I cannot say that it is imminent now, but the odds have shortened in the past year, and certainly have done so in the past few months. I do not think that anyone can now seriously doubt that majority rule is on its way to Rhodesia.
What remains in doubt—and this is what ought to form the gravamen of our discussion this afternoon—is how it will come about. It is the Government's aim to do all that we can to ensure that the transition is peaceful and orderly. The longer a solution of the dispute between Rhodesians is delayed, the greater the risk that it will be neither peaceful nor orderly. This means that it is becoming more urgent for those who hold power in Rhodesia to abandon the stance of intransigence they have adopted since 1965, to face the realities of the situation and to demonstrate in practice a readiness to meet the legitimate political aspirations of the African population.
The situation around Rhodesia's borders is one of change. It is not, in the circumstances, yet clear how things will develop, or indeed how this country can help. My right honourable friend the Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary, speaking in another place last week, said that the Government would continue to keep in close touch with Governments of African countries and that he planned to visit a number of countries in Africa in the New Year for talks on Rhodesia, as well as wider-ranging talks on matters of common interest. He explained that he would be seeking an answer to two quesstions: first, what can Britain usefully do; and, secondly, what might others do to help? He explained that he was determined that we should not miss any opening to promote peaceful change in Rhodesia, but that it might well prove that the best course was to wait a while longer for the logic of events to be borne in, in Rhodesia.
Another thing we shall be doing, of course, is continuing the sanctions and the search for ways to make them more effective—not from any desire to inflict hardship on individuals, but because it is vital to use every means available to persuade Rhodesians to wake up to their situation before it is too late. We all know that sanctions, on their own, will not bring down the régime. We know that they are less effective than they could be, primarily because of failures of other Governments (notably the South African Government) to apply them properly. For that reason, the Government's endeavours over the last nine months to make sanctions more effective have concentrated on
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trying to secure an improvement in their application by the international community as a whole.
Much has been achieved. We have stepped up our sanctions surveillance effort and have greatly increased the number of notes about suspected sanctions breaches which we supply to the United Nations Sanctions Committee. At the Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary's initiative, there have been discussions with our EEC partners about how to get sanctions working better. Only last week there were exchanges between Customs experts of the Nine countries on this matter. We have stressed to the United States Government how much we would welcome the repeal of the Byrd Amendment, under which certain Rhodesian minerals can be imported into the United States; and President Ford himself has now publicly advocated repeal by Congress. We have discussed sanctions matters bilaterally with various Governments, and my right honourable friend has found opportunities to speak on the subject to the Foreign Ministers of Portugal and Japan. We shall in fact continue to search for ways to get the sanctions applied more effectively.
Before concluding, there is one other point I should like to mention. There have been a number of suggestions that Her Majesty's Government should call a constitutional conference on Rhodesia. There has even been speculation that we might shortly do so. Such a conference is an objective which the Government regard as altogether desirable. It is, after all, the traditional way in which arrangements have been made for the independence of former British Colonial territories and we shall certainly not lose sight of the possibility. But it would first have to be made clear that everyone concerned would take part, and there is no sign yet that the illegal regime would do so, or indeed would allow detained African leaders to attend. There would also have to be some indication that the views of the various parties in Rhodesia have reached a point at which a conference could produce a result, and I do not think that has yet happened either.
Finally, I come back to the Government's desire to see an orderly and just solution as the only means of avoiding further violence, suffering and bloodshed.

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The Government deplore the violence which is taking place in Rhodesia, whoever inflicts it, and they deplore the suffering which it causes. Successive British Governments have warned that this would happen if the avenues of a peaceful change in Rhodesia remain closed. Though the hour is late, the Government believe that there is still time to avert disaster if every influence is brought to bear to persuade the peoples of Rhodesia (and in particular the white minority) to look reality in the face. We shall do out utmost to assist this process. My Lords, I beg to move.
Moved, That the Draft Southern Rhodesia Act 1965 (Continuation) Order 1974, laid before the House on October 29, be approved.—(Lord Goronwy-Roberts.)
3.58 p.m.
LORD CARRINGTON: My Lords, the House will be grateful to the noble Lord opposite for setting out so clearly the purposes of this Order and for explaining the Government's position and reviewing the situation in Southern Africa. For the last nine years the problem of Rhodesia has beset both political Parties and has been the occasion for numerous debates and legislation in both Houses of Parliament. There have been deeply-held views about what should be done, ranging from some of those in the Party opposite, and in the Liberal Party, who were in favour of military intervention, to some of those on this side, who felt that the right thing to do was to accept the fact that there had been a Declaration of Independence, and nothing more could or should be done about it.
However, I think it is true to say that, generally speaking, there has been a feeling among most of us that Britain has a responsibility for Rhodesia which meant the people, both black and white; and that it was a responsibility which could not be thrown over because it was inconvenient to retain it or convenient to get rid of it. Both the Labour and Conservative Governments have, over these past nine years, sought to negotiate a settlement on a basis which was acceptable to all those who live in Rhodesia, and which would be fair and just.
There was one occasion, at any rate, when a settlement seemed to be very
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near. I for one hold the view that Mr. Smith was short-sighted in not accepting the terms which were offered to him after the "Fearless" or "Tiger" talks—I cannot remember which one. Perhaps it was both of them. They were certainly as good or better than anything else he was likely to obtain; indeed, I have a suspicion that Mr. Wilson might have found it difficult to get that settlement accepted by quite a number of people in his own Party.
The Conservative Government, in their turn, tried for a settlement. For them the noble Lords, Lord Goodman and Lord Greenhill, tried, and both have been intimately concerned with the difficult problems, and yet neither of those two experienced and highly ingenious negotiators could achieve a solution. As the noble Lord opposite said, there has also been the Pearce Commission. No one can say that both Parties have not tried to obtain a settlement and—although there has been some difference of emphasis—there has been a broad measure of agreement between the two Parties about the five or six Principles which should guide us. There was one act of the last Labour Government with which we on this side disagreed, and that was, in effect, the handing over of the problem to the United Nations and the introduction of mandatory sanctions. It was, as some of your Lordships who were here at the time will remember, a cause for dispute between the two Houses. It was a matter on which we on this side felt strongly, because we believed that it would inevitably lead to a lessening of Britain's influence to reach a settlement, and, at the same time, make it more difficult to achieve a settlement because of the atmosphere which exists on this problem in the United Nations. We felt that it was a British responsiblity to solve the Rhodesian problem. We did not think that mandatory sanctions would be effective, nor were they the right course to adopt since if they were not effective they would only exacerbate the situation, and if they were effective they would bear equally hardly on all sections of Rhodesian society.
BARONESS LLEWELYN-DAVIES OF HASTOE: My Lords, if I may interrupt the noble Lord, can he explain to the House how sanctions which were not mandatory would have been more effective?

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His Government were in favour of sanctions.
LORD CARRINGTON: My Lords, personally I do not think that sanctions were any good. I am sorry if I have used the phrase, "Mandatory sanctions". The whole idea was not one which was likely to help to bring about a settlement. What, then, should be our action to-day? I have a good deal of sympathy with those who are saying—and no doubt in this debate will say—that sanctions are comparatively ineiїective and not universally applied, although in the past year or two they have been more universally applied and the charge that only Britain was keeping to the rules can no longer be valid. I do not think it can be said—nor, indeed, did the noble Lord say it—that sanctions are likely to be a decisive factor on whether or not there is a settlement on Rhodesia. Nevertheless, I think it can equally be said that they have had some effect upon the Rhodesian economy. But the central issue to-day is exactly the same as it was nine years ago. How can we reach a settlement which is just, fair and acceptable? How can we ensure that white Rhodesians feel secure in their own country and black Rhodesians have a say in the running of their affairs, which they believe to be their right, and which almost all their neighbours have? As the noble Lord opposite has said, in these past few months there has been a significant change in the circumstances in and surrounding Rhodesia, not least because of the abandonment by Portugal of its colonial territory of Mozambique. That must necessarily have long-term consequences to Rhodesia and, indeed, to South Africa, both economically and in terms of their own security.
There is also the possibility that the South African Government may make some domestic decisions which could—although none of us knows what they are to be—considerably affect her relationship with her neighbours. Although one must not read too much into correspondence between anybody—particularly between two Heads of State—it surely is good that that kind of relationship is beginning to emerge, and. indeed, I suggest it is a vindication of the policy that we on this side have always maintained: that the right way to influence people is not by cutting
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off relations, by boycotts, by sanctions, by diplomatic withdrawals, but rather by contact and by the opportunity of discussion in an atmosphere of civilised courtesy rather than hostility.
My Lords, I do not know how far these two factors will affect the problem of Rhodesia, but I do not think that it would be wise at this stage for Britain to be seen to be taking a unilateral action to end sanctions, an action which would undoubtedly be misunderstood by black Africa, and which would have no chance of success in the United Nations. It would certainly be regarded by most people in Africa as a tacit sign that the British Government had altered their policy and were now favouring Mr. Smith and his régime. The consequences of that—and after all it is the business of the Foreign Office to have regard to British interests—in terms of trade and investment could be vital to us, a country which relies so heavily on commerce for its survival. So I am driven to the conclusion, without, I must confess, much enthusiasm, that I am not prepared to oppose this Order, and that at any rate for another year we should see how far the changing situation has altered the possibility of a settlement. We have the opportunity to review this matter every year and that in itself is good because it concentrates our mind, at any rate, on one Parliamentary day in the year on this problem. In the meantime, I believe that the Government should once again actively seek the means of settling the Rhodesian problem. Although I know the difficulties—it is absurd not to recognise them—I was a little disappointed that the noble Lord opposite did not have more constructive remarks to make about how the Government intend to solve this problem. Above all, we in this country should seek to end what has been a sorry chapter for Rhodesians and British alike.
4.8 p.m.
LORD FOOT: My Lords, I cannot pretend I take part in this debate or look forward to it with any relish or pleasure for two reasons: one is that over the past nine years we have gone over the ground that we are traversing to-day so often. Secondly, in the light of what we have already heard from the two Front Benches, it is clear the outcome of this debate, if there is to be a Division, is a foregone conclusion.

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I cannot pretend that I have any original contribution to make to this debate. Of course, the matters which are new in the present situation, as compared with the situation which we were discussing at this time last year, are those which the noble Lord has been pointing out—the very dramatic changes which have taken place in Southern Africa and, indeed, in all the areas which surround Rhodesia. These changes are not in any way to be underestimated, but the noble Lord has covered that so completely that I do not think it requires any additional comment from me. If there is an issue in this debate, it is, after all, the issue as to whether we should, in fact, maintain or abandon the sanctions policy to which we have been committed for so long. I should like to follow the footsteps of the noble Lord, the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, and the noble Lord, Lord Carrington, in being entirely conciliatory in this debate. I do not know whether I shall be able to be constructive. The noble Lord, Lord Carrington, suggested at the end of his remarks that the noble Lord, the Under-Secretary of State, might have been a little more constructive. I do not have any constructive criticisms to make; indeed, I am always a little suspicious of people who put forward constructive criticisms because sometimes I fee] it is because they do not have any other arrows in their quiver.
However, I will attempt to be conciliatory, and I should like to address myself, if I may, to those noble Lords who, I suspect, from looking at the list of speakers, may still be wanting to put forward the anti-sanction case. I should like to say to them that I do not disagree with them and I do not think that my Party disagrees with them in the attitude that they take because we do not think that there is some substance in their argument. I have a personal weakness, which possibly flows from my legal training; it is that I think it is very rare that there is not something to be said on both sides of an argument. I think it is very rare that one side of an argument is completely devoid of any substance, and I should like to say to the anti-sanctionists, if I may, that I hope that I comprehend the force of the argument which they have addressed to us over the years and which
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no doubt they will be addressing to us this afternoon.
My Lords, what has been the substance of the case that they have presented? It has been this, surely: that leaving aside the morality, or the correctness, or the propriety of having imposed sanctions in the first place—and the noble Lord, Lord Carrington, has indicated that he might have been opposed to that and probably was opposed to it from the beginning—and leaving aside, if I may, the other matter that the noble Lord raised, whether it would have been wise to have invited the United Nations to participate and to introduce mandatory sanctions (if that were done and if it were done wrongly, then the responsibility rests upon another member of my family), the main case which has been presented to us over the years in this House has surely been this.
First of all, sanctions have failed to bring about their object; they have failed to bring the Smith regime to its knees; they have failed, indeed, to bring the Smith régime to its senses, and they have failed to bring the Smith régime to some satisfactory and acceptable settlement. They have said—and said, as I think, rightly—that this is partly due to the sanctions that we have imposed not having bitten sufficiently to bring sufficient pressure to bear; and it has been partly due to the fact that others have breached sanctions and have not observed them as they might have done.
My Lords, the second leg of the argument that has been advanced by the antisanctionists is this: that rather than having helped the situation, the imposition of sanctions has added to the intransigence of the Smith régime over the years. That is an argument which has been developed very often in this House. It has been developed in particular, as I remember, by the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine, with great eloquence and force. I remember the last occasion when he spoke about this, and I accept very largely what he says. If you treat this little, beleaguered minority in this way, if you give them the impression that the hand of all the world is against them, then you may only be adding to the laage. mentality. You may only be drawing them closer together and you may only—I speak now not only of the Smith régime

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but also of the white minority as a whole—be drawing them together in a determination to defend their way of life (the luxurious life, indeed, which they live) and their absolute dominion over the black majority.
My Lords, I should like to say I understand the force of that argument and I believe there is a great deal in it. However, where it seems to me that the argument of the anti-sanctionists begins to go all wrong is when they go on to say: "If you accept the premise that sanctions have been ineffective, then ergo. you should abandon them". That does not follow in any kind of way. The argument, I suggest, is erroneous and defective in two particular respects. I would ask this question first of all, and I hope that I have been sufficiently conciliatory up to now to expect or hope that when, in particular, the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine, speaks he will treat my inquiry in the same spirit as I have addressed the House so far. Does anybody in the world, sanctionist or non-sanctionist, believe that if you remove sanctions (whether they be mandatory sanctions or whether they be the sanctions imposed by this country) at this stage, at this day, it would do anything whatever towards producing a fair settlement in Rhodesia, or that it would do anything whatever towards reducing the intransigence of the Smith régime and the white minority? My Lords, I will content myself with this. I do not want to say anything which might be interpreted as offensive, but if anybody says "Yes, I think that those things will result," I simply cannot understand the mental processes which are operating.
My Lords, the second defect in the argument is, I suggest, that it altogether ignores and disregards the argument that you should remove sanctions, that you should abandon sanctions. It disregards altogether the enormous price that you would have to pay if you took that course. I may be putting this in rather stronger language than that used by the noble Lord, Lord Carrington, but in the latter part of his remarks he indicated something of the cost and the price that would have to be paid for this policy. First of all, as we know, we should be in direct breach of the mandatory obligation we are under to the United Nations. What-
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ever would be our situation in the community of nations if we, the proposers of mandatory sanctions, whether it was right or wrong to do it, were to go to the United Nations and say, "We are going to abandon sanctions unilaterally"? We should have no standing whatever in the United Nations. The second price that we should have to pay for this is that it would mean the effective abandonment of all our post-Imperial obligations in Rhodesia. Clearly that is so. Thirdly, I suggest—and this is what the noble Lord, Lord Carrington, himself said in more moderate language—that it would be regarded by the Rhodesian Africans and, indeed, by the whole of black Africa, as a gross betrayal of the interests of the black people. Fourthly—perhaps I do not need to go on with the catalogue—whatever hope would be left to the black majority in Rhodesia? Whatever would be left to them except either despair or the ultimate solution of violent revolution? What astonishes me about the anti-sanctionists is that they are able to disregard this appalling price that we should be called upon to pay, yet at the same time they seem to count themselves as the realists in this situation.
My Lords, may I conclude by saying that I remember very well in the debate which we had on the Report of the Pearce Commission that when the noble Baroness, Lady Tweedsmuir, was speaking as Minister from the Government Front Bench her recommendation was that there should be a period for reflection. I thought that was quite right and I ventured to make a suggestion of my own, that certain people might take this opportunity for reflection; and of them all the first people who ought to take advantage of the opportunity were the white minority in Rhodesia—not the Smith régime but the white minority as a whole. Unhappily, as the noble Lord the Minister has indicated, there is little or no sign that they have taken advantage of the opportunity which they have had since then. The plain brutal fact of the matter is that these unhappy people—and indeed they are unhappy people—the white minority in Rhodesia, are living, and have for the last ten years lived, in a world of pure illusion.
The facts are so simple as to be almost incredible. As the noble Lord said, there

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are just over 250,000 white people in Rhodesia. They are this minority, a population equal to that of my native city of Plymouth, and there they are in the heart of Africa exercising absolute dominion over some six million black Africans. Everybody in the world outside the close confines of Rhodesia knows that this little white community has a future and can exist at all only if it can come to terms with its black citizens. They have no future without that and as a result of the developments which have occurred, particularly during the last four months, the need for them to come to a settlement with their black population is ever more urgent than it was before.
My concluding plea, if I may so put it, to the anti-sanctionists is this. To abandon sanctions now—fortunately, it is a course which is now politically impossible—would be to feed these people's illusions; it would give them a little longer in which to hope that in some way they can exist in the laager. of their own creation. I suggest that the worst possible service that this House and this Parliament could perform, not only for ourselves, not only for Africa, not only for the world, not only for the United Nations and, most of all, for the white minority in Rhodesia, would be to abandon sanctions at this moment.
4.23 p.m.
LORD COLERAINE: My Lords, this is not the first time that I have had the pleasure of following the noble Lord, Lord Foot, in our discussions on Rhodesia and I hope that I shall say nothing this afternoon that will in any way convey any impression of acerbity or disapproval of what he has said. I have appreciated very much the spirit in which he has spoken, and so far as he and those for whom he speaks are concerned. I hope to do nothing to disturb or spoil the impression that he has made. He asked me one specific question, and that was: what would I do about sanctions now? Would I urge that we should drop them at this stage? I believe the only honest answer I can make is that I do not think it matters what we do about sanctions. I do not think it matters what this House or this Parliament or this Government does about Rhodesia. My noble friend Lord Carrington said that Rhodesia is still a British responsibility. I disagree
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with him. I think that events have taken charge; we are no longer in control, if ever we were, and I believe the wisest thing Her Majesty's Government could do at this juncture would be to recognise that the whole tragedy is now outside their control, and to realise that there is nothing that the Foreign Secretary nor anybody else, can do to redeem the situation.
My Lords, is it not a most curious irony that, while we in this House are examining for the tenth year the utter incompetence of successive British Governments to manage the affairs of another country, in another place they are examining the utter incompetence of the same Governments over the same period of time to manage our own affairs? Would it not have been very much better, would we not have cut a much less ludicrous figure in the world, if we had left Rhodesia to manage its own business and paid a little more attention to ours? How much better it would have been for Rhodesia, how much better it would have been for us, and how much better it would have been for the Western World.
I should like to make just one point in illustration of what I am saying. We are faced to-day with a catastrophic rise in commodity prices. For years past we have been shedding crocodile tears over the gap between the "haves" and (the "have-nots"—and what have we been doing in Africa? We have been imposing upon the African continent through our misguided, mistaken and, from the start, hopeless policy of sanctions, such a distortion of the economy, not only on Rhodesia but on the whole Continent; with the building of railways where no railways ought to be built; the flying in of goods that ought to have gone by rail—the whole farrago of nonsensical and irrational economic distortion in which we are engaged. We have not only done harm to Rhodesia by sanctions; we have done harm to the world and to ourselves.
The noble Lord, Lord Goronwy-Roberts, made a very severe attack upon the Smith Government and I must say that I agree largely with many of the criticisms which he made of it. But as the noble Lord, Lord Foot, pointed out,

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sanctions have driven the Smith Government into more and more extreme courses. The noble Lord, Lord Foot, said of the white minority in Rhodesia—that minority which might have come to form an alternative government—that they have shown a very poor spirit. But they, too, were caught up in the web of sanctions. We declared war on Rhodesia, and because we declared war the whole white population had to rally round the Government of the day. If we had not done that, I am quite convinced in my own mind that there would have been no Smith Government to-day; there would have been a more rational government and probably there would have been a settlement years ago. The Smith Government is what it is to-day because it has been driven to it by sanctions. My Lords, I was very much interested to hear my noble friend Lord Carrington say, as I understood him, that his position is exactly the same to-day as it was nine years ago, and that we must still strive to get a settlement. As I recollect, nine years ago when we had that long debate which continued until the small hours of the morning there was no question of getting a settlement. I do not think that was the line taken then by my noble friend. It was a question of restoring legality, of bringing Mr. Smith to heel. I am very glad, indeed, to know now that my noble friend has some misgivings about the efficacy of sanctions. I think it is a great pity he did not have the same misgivings nine years ago.
But it is true now, as my noble friend Lord Carrington has said, and as was also said by the noble Lord, Lord GoronwyRoberts, that we have opened a new chapter. For the first time, in my judgment at any rate, sanctions have produced a result. It is no longer simply a question of saying, "Oh, sanctions are beginning to bite", when everyone knew they were not. They have now produced a result that is quantifiable and measurable. As a secondary consequence of sanctions, if not the direct result, we can see not only a change in the Portuguese territories in South Africa; we can see a further consequence. We can see a NATO country—by its geographical position immensely important to us, to Europe and to the whole Western World
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—threatened with a Communist takeover, and that at a time when all the omens pointed to the withdrawal, in greater or lesser degree, of United States forces from Europe. I remember a line of Browning when he was surveying the decay of an empire older than ours. He said:
"I feel chilly and grow old".
I do not think that there is any one of us who cannot but feel a chill on the heart when he considers what may happen to the NATO alliance as a result of the revolutionary coup. in Portugal, which, in its turn, was the result of our policy in Southern Africa.
LORD SHACKLETON: My Lords, does the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine, consider that events in Portugal and in their possessions, are a result of the imposition of sanctions on Rhodesia, which seemed to me to be the basis of his argument?
LORD COLERAINE: Yes, indeed, I am very glad that the noble Lord, Lord Shackleton, has grasped my argument, and I congratulate him.
LORD SHACKLETON: My Lords, the only reason I found it difficult to grasp was that it seemed to me to be total nonsense.
LORD COLERAINE: My Lords, if the noble Lord would contain his impatience until he speaks, and even contain it to the extent of allowing me to develop my argument, the noble Lord might change his view. I have not much hope of that, but I think he might.
LORD FOOT: My Lords, may I interrupt the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine, not with the intention of upsetting his argument, but because I think we are touching on an important point here. Am I to understand him to believe that if we withdrew from the Rhodesian relationship altogether, as I understand he wishes us to do, and as a result removed sanctions, that would be more inclined to drive Mozambique into the hands of the Soviet Union? Or does he believe it would be less inclined?
LORD COLERAINE: My Lords, I think that the noble Lord, Lord Foot, misunderstood—perhaps because I was not making it sufficiently clear—the tenor

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of what I was saying earlier. I was not saying that we should withdraw from Rhodesia in order that sanctions might be lifted, and so on. All I was saying was that if we want a settlement in Rhodesia, we are so discredited that it would be better if we withdrew from the picture. I am not saying whether or not sanctions should be removed.
My Lords, if I may return to the point raised by the noble Lord, Lord Shackleton, can he really maintain that Frelimo had no encouragement from the policy which Her Majesty's Government pursued in relation to Rhodesia? Can the noble Lord not see the possibility that it encouraged them, and demoralised the Portuguese in Mozambique and Angola? Surely the noble Lord must admit that sanctions created a chaos of instability in Southern and Central Africa. But, of course, it was not sanctions alone. It was the result, too, of that curious death wish which seems to have overcome Western culture during the past 20 years, and to which I believe our policy in Rhodesia has very largely contributed. I think it is worth while looking back, because looking forward there is nothing we can do, as I said to the noble Lord. Looking back, what has been the view of our policy towards Rhodesia in the last 10 years or even longer?
Successive Governments have assured us that they have been seeking a settlement with Rhodesia. Successive Governments have gone through the motions. I do not say that they do not want a settlement. What I do say is that they did not dare to face the implications of a settlement. For a settlement with Rhodesia we substituted a policy of appeasement towards the black African States. Indeed, the noble Lord, Lord Carrington, said as much this afternoon, and encouraged us to go on with a policy of appeasing African States. If he did not say that, surely he said that our relations with the black African States are so vital to us that we cannot risk giving offence.
LORD CARRINGTON: My Lords, I do not really want to interrupt, but perhaps the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine, would read the report of what I said to-day. I said a whole lot of other things which I thought seemed to lead up to a quite compelling argument.
LORD COLERAINE: My Lords, I think we have been guilty of appeasement. We have betrayed our friends and encouraged our enemies. By doing so we have earned general contempt, and reduced any influence we might have had in this sphere to nothing. The rational. of our policy towards Rhodesia, as I understand it, was to keep Communism out of Africa, but the result of that policy has been to introduce Communism into Africa. I have no doubt that the real reason for the détente between President Kaunda and Mr. Vorster is that President Kaunda is aware of the infiltration of Chinese into the African continent, and is seeking a defence against it.
There is a question which the noble Lord, Lord Foot, raised of our attitude towards this Order this afternoon. Certainly for my own part I should not challenge in a Division, and if one were called I would abstain. It seems to me now that such has been the futility of our policy that it matters not whether we discontinue sanctions or keep them on. The matter has passed out of our hands and we count for very little. I was reading the other day an essay by a pillar of the Liberal establishment, a man whom the oldest among us would remember well and whom I think we all respected, Professor Gilbert Murray. In this essay he argued—it was written after the war—that, in a world ringing with grandiloquent half-truth and apocalyptic policies of worlds free from want and free from fear, we would have done better to teach our coloured empires the supreme duty of order and obedience instead of abandoning them to anarchy. But as he said then
"… it is too late now for such considerations".
If it was too late 20 years ago, it is certainly too late to-day. But it would do none of us any harm if we were to reflect more deeply than I think most of us have done upon the consequences of our scuttle from Africa, of our laying down our responsibilities there, before the people of Africa were themselves ready to accept them.
4.43 p.m.
LORD BARNBY: My Lords, in following my noble friend Lord Coleraine I am sure I share with other Members of the House, particularly those on this side of the House, pleasure at having listened to

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the independent and original reasoning that he has put forward, which is all part of an opposition which he has expressed to this Order, a feeling which I certainly emphatically share with him. The noble Lord, Lord Goronwy-Roberts, in putting the Order before us in his usual very clear and not infrequently persuasive manner, gave us a clear picture of what is the thought of the Government in justifying a further appeal to this House for an affirmative Order. Last Friday in another place there was a most interesting discussion on this Order, many truly informative speeches, and it was evident that much thought was being given to this subject from whatever angles can be adduced. But lest I forget it later on, referring to the speech of the right honourable Gentleman the Foreign Secretary, I hope the noble Lord will persuade him to reconsider the suggestion that on his projected forthcoming tour of Africa he will not exclude a visit to the South African Republic. I aim to return to that matter in a moment.
I opposed the sanctions Order the first time it was put before the House, when it was held out to us that it might succeed in its aim within six weeks or so, and I have continued to take that course since. I opposed it on the grounds that economic sanctions are unlikely to succeed in this world in which we live. The Rhodesian Press recently reported a "Get-to-know-you" gathering at which were present the Prime Minister and a number of black Africans. This was generated, according to the paper, by a suggestion that had been put forward by five eminent African businessmen to the Prime Minister, that there should be a gathering of this character. The Prime Minister readily agreed, limiting the invitations to 100. In the event, according to the Rhodesian Press, invitations were extended to many, and telephone calls were received by them asking whether they had received an invitation and saying they would know how to deal with it. In the event, 43 people attended the happy "Get-to-know-you" party. But it included none of the ANC Party and, curiously enough, not one of the five African businessmen who originally asked for that gathering. So much for the allegation that Mr. Smith will not make
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attempts to get together with the Africans, and so much for intimidation.
We have heard of intimidation in Ulster Indeed, I would submit that if someone in a distant country, say South America, were looking at the picture of the British Isles, he would see that the attempt of Britain to govern a small province of 1,500,000 people across the Irish Channel was not so successful when some 900 people were murdered in a short period of time; and he might think it curious that they should still think they have jurisdiction, like a successful Government, over a country some 6,000, or 8,000, miles away. That would appeal to some as being not good logic. There has been bloodshed in the North of Ireland, but at present civilian rule is effective in Rhodesia. There is no internal disturbance, violence and bloodshed, but certainly there is external pressure from terrorist agencies. The South African civilian personnel, we are assured by the Prime Minister, Mr. Vorster, are not there to protect Rhodesia—incidentally, they are all volunteers—they are there to protect South African interests at a distance, and to ensure safe passage from the North to South Africa.
I suggest that if anyone were to introduce a Motion here to restore capital punishment, it would certainly have a negative result, just as surely as this Order will have an affirmative result. But I submit that an appeal for a national expression of opinion would establish that the decision of Parliament on both was wrong. Here murderers are forgiven after perhaps twelve years; that certainly is premature. But how long are we to continue this hatred against Rhodesia over UDI? I think that the American colonies attracted non-recognition for seven years; is it to be eternity for Rhodesia? We condone Uganda, where there are the most horrifying atrocities: we permit her to remain as a member of the Commonwealth. Indeed, I see that Amin, the head of the State, reports that in the future Britons will be the slaves of Africans. There is not much encouragement there to Rhodesians to have confidence in black rule.
The gracious Speech, in referring to an agreement with Rhodesia, required that it be supported by the people of that country. But how do you secure a dependable expression of African opinion in sufficient numbers? I hope that the

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noble Lord, Lord Goronwy-Roberts, may be able to add some word about this matter. The ANC is in disarray and discredited, and is activated by overseas finance; the African Progressive Party, which had Chad Chiponze at its head, has absorbed the Forum and the Convention movements, and they are growing fast.
The noble Lord stressed the population to be well over 4 million Africans—I do not know how many of them are above the age of 17 and are likely to have a vote—but two-thirds of them live in the tribal trust lands and in the purchase areas. In a country of tribal customs, the idea of an independent vote is totally unknown. The Pearce Report was on a 6 per cent. sample. Would a 6 per cent. sample be acceptable on any solution in Ulster? Anybody who takes the trouble to go up country in Rhodesia and talks to the District Commissioners and asks about the operation of that exercise will be told that it was a farce. There is intimidation in Ulster after 1,500 years of Christianity, and it is a meagre 80 years since Rhodesia was lifted from savagery by British enterprise.
It is customary in many directions to condemn the South African Republic. Is immediate black majority rule what is desired by Members of the other side of the House? Indeed, in many quarters where South Africa is condemned, is it required that there should be complete black rule forthwith? What we really want there is contact, not boycott. There was a speech last month in Hamburg by a very eminent South African, the head of a very big bank. In it he said:
"The way to progress is the opposite to what the enemies of South Africa are trying to implement."
I ask the indulgence of the House so that I may continue to read.
"I firmly believe that the historical evidence is there for all to see that the more investment that takes place in South Africa, the more capital that flows into South Africa, the more immigrants we get, the more trade we do with other countries, the more tourists that visit South Africa, the more dialogue and' communication there is with South Africa, the faster we will be moving towards the ideals which I have briefly indicated to you to-day."
I took the liberty of asking your Lordships' indulgence in order to quote that extract, because that is a clear indication of the need for contact and for the assistance of all peoples to each other.
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My right honourable friend the late Foreign Secretary, Sir Alec Douglas-Home, always stressed the need for contact rather than opposition. Equally, in Rhodesia we do not suddenly want black rule. Withdraw white control and the Mashonas and the Matabele will be at each other's throats at once. That will be the way to bring disorder and bloodshed to the country. Why should we go by this Order? Why should we deny African education to the 10 million plus that has been promised? How can you expect unready Africans to manage an industrial complex such as has been developed in South Africa, and largely exists in the cities of Rhodesia? It would be quite impossible. This Motion can bring disorder.
My noble Leader stressed so clearly the other day the dangers involved to the Cape route. That needs no supplement from anyone else. We know of the presence of Chinese and Russian Communists in Central Africa. Surely we do not approve oppression in Russia. But is Britain's status in the UN, and our influence in the world, so weakened that we, who claim responsibility for Rhodesia, a country which people of British stock guided from slavery and savagery, must bow to the dictation of black Africa to the North in doing what we think right to administer that for which we are responsible? I retain sufficient confidence in British industry so that I believe that with the right price, quality and delivery (and I repeat, delivery) we shall obtain the business. Black Africa needs us. This Order will do harm and retard African development. I have opposed it every time it has been presented before and I repeat my opposition to it.
5.2 p.m.
LORD SHACKLETON: My Lords, I intervene in our annual debate on the Rhodesian Order without much enthusiasm, but I am bound to say that the two speeches we have just heard from the noble Lords, Lord Coleraine and Lord Barnby, if I thought they were true, would drive me to suicide. I have seldom heard such depressing speeches, such total abandonment of hope. May I first of all say to the noble Lord, Lord Barnby, that we are not debating trade relations with South

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Africa nor are we debating the question of, I think he said, immediate majority rule in South Africa or in Rhodesia. If I am misinterpreting the noble Lord I shall be glad to give way.
In some of my remarks I hope I shall perhaps cheer the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine, a little. I should like to apologise if I intervened rather offensively in his speech. He is always extremely courteous to the House. If I may say so, there was a kind of mad logic about his arguments which may have seemed credible to him but was totally incredible to me and so I should like to deal with his arguments. As the noble Lord, Lord Foot, said, we must face these arguments, but to-day that we should be so depressed when I believe there is a real prospect of solution in Southern Africa leaves me even more surprised. I would say to the noble Lord that I would not exclude the possibility that, if not within a year then within the next two or three years, we shall no longer need to debate this particular Order. I will give my reasons. It is partly because this hope exists that I feel as strongly as I ever did in the past that now is not the time to abandon a policy which has for nine years been upheld by successive Governments. In this respect the noble Lord, Lord Carrington, and others indicated why at this moment the abandonment of sanctions would reduce rather than improve the prospects of settlement in Southern Africa and in particular in regard to Rhodesia.
As always, the noble Lord, Lord Carrington, gets a bit hung up on mandatory sanctions. I remember the unfortunate mistake the Conservative Opposition made in 1968 or 1969 when they divided the House (an enormous House) and won by only seven votes. We had all 18 Bishops on our side on that occasion. Not, as I might say to my noble friend Lady Summerskill, that that necessarily is evidence of virtue, but it does at least suggest that the noble Lord, Lord Carrington, would do better to forget that particular incident.
My Lords, I was a member of the Labour Government which, following the enunciation of the Five Principles by Sir Alec Douglas-Home, introduced sanctions. May I just say how much we shall all welcome Sir Alec back to this House.
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Although from time to time we teased him, too, no one is held or will be held in higher regard in your Lordships' House. In passing, I might say that the Commons have now lost the only two Members of that House who were entitled to use our dining facilities because they have come up here permanently in the shape of the noble and learned Lord, Lord Hailsham of Saint Marylebone, and now Sir Alec.
At the time that sanctions were introduced I was Minister of Defence for the Royal Air Force and I well remember the controversies and, indeed, the pressure and the sincere arguments as to whether we should have used military force at the time of UDI. I do not know whether we were wrong not to do so, but I still believe that on strict military as well as on moral and political grounds we were right not to intervene with force. With our undoubted responsibility, if I may say again to noble Lords, it is no use blaming our Governments of all Parties for their failures in other directions. This is not sufficient justification for our not doing what we conceive to be our duty in a particular situation. In my view we had no alternative but to go down the path we did and, as the noble Lord, Lord Carrington, made clear, let no one underrate the efforts that members of Sir Alec Douglas-Home's Government before and the Labour Government made to find solutions. Before UDI my noble and learned friend Lord Gardiner and others spent many days, indeed weeks, on the problem, and, as the noble Lord said, the Prime Minister, Mr. Wilson, took very great personal risks in trying to find a solution in the post-UDI talks, particularly in the "Tiger" as well as the "Fearless" talks, but the régime failed to take that opportunity for reasons that are still largely inexplicable. As has been pointed out, they would have been well advised to have done so and are now unlikely, I fear, to get the sort of terms that they might then have got.
My Lords, it is true that a factor, perhaps the major factor, in the developing situation in Southern Africa to-day is the change in the former Portuguese Colonies. Mr. Harold Macmillan's wind of change, as my noble friend made clear, is blowing with greater strength in Southern Africa. Perhaps some of the most exciting developments are in South

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Africa itself. May I say to the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine, that I find it quite extraordinary that he should argue that sanctions are ineffective in Rhodesia except in driving the small white population into desperation, into obstinacy, while at the same time having apparently been effective in Portugal and in Portuguese possessions when the sanctions were not actually imposed against them. I do not find this argument convincing at all. I would say to noble Lords who still oppose the policy of this Government and the previous Government that one ought not to underrate the difficulties facing Mr. Vorster.
The news of a possible détente between Zambia and South Africa is a development on which I believe we have good grounds for pinning hope. The simple fact is that Kenneth Kaunda, that great and moderate African leader, held out an olive branch and did so in the presence of leading South Africans on Zambia's tenth anniversary celebrations which included not only some of the names that appeared in the Press, but men like Mr. Nofke, the editor of the leading Nationalist Party paper, The Transvaal. The fact is, in contradistinction to the examples that certain noble Lords have given, like President Amin, that there are some great African leaders—President Julius Nyerere. Sir Seretse Khama and Kenneth Kaunda. Therefore I greatly welcome the decision of the Foreign Secretary to visit Africa to talk to African leaders. In all this the moral position adopted by the West and by this country is of vital importance. Although sanctions did not fulfil the original hoped-for solution, I remember those early days when we had reports suggesting that they would be effective in a short period. There is no doubt that they have had a disappointing result, but in the long run I feel they have had a real effect.
No one wishes to see the whites of Rhodesia suffer or even be punished for some of the more monstrous actions of the present régime. I do not believe—I say this to the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine—that the action of the Smith Government over the Land Tenure Act and their treatment of the Tangwena people, driving them out of their registered lands where they have been for hundreds of years, could be regarded as
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just a reaction to sanctions. I cannot see——
LORD COLERAINE: My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Lord for giving way. Would he not perhaps feel that if we had given independence to Rhodesia under Sir Edgar Whitehead, or even Mr. Winston Field, as it was open to us to do, we should have had a much happier situation than to-day?
LORD SHACKLETON: My Lords, going back into the past is always difficult because these are hypotheses. There are those looking back on it who lament the disappearance of the efforts at federation, and some of the African leaders with whom my noble friend Lord Gordon-Walker was concerned. The fact is that we have a legal responsibility. We are now dealing with the situation as it has been since Sir Alec Douglas-Home was first confronted with the threat of UDI. I cannot see how noble Lords can have any hope for a régime which offers no reasonable prospect of majority rule. No one has suggested—certainly not the present Government—immediate majority rule. Is the noble Lord about to disagree?
LORD BARNBY: My Lords, I have already raised this point with the noble Lord, Lord Goronwy-Roberts, but as I read Hansar. of last Friday for another place the impression the Foreign Secretary gave was of that requirement, though I must admit that subsequently in the speech it was hedged by reservations.
LORD SHACKLETON: My Lords, I read the speech and I did not come to the same conclusion. But the noble Lord is entitled to quote it if he wishes, because it was a ministerial speech. I did not make that interpretation. My noble friend will be replying to the debate and no doubt will deal with the point. But let us nail that particular canard. A Labour Government have never suggested immediate black majority rule, but have advised an orderly approach towards majority rule.
In this my position is entirely the same as the noble Baroness, Lady Tweedsmuir. She said last year:
"We want majority rule not just because it is a form of constitutional advance, but because we think there should be unimpeded progress towards majority rule."

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She went on:
"We are very well aware of certain dangers which were mentioned by my noble friends Lord Coleraine and Lord Milverton, but we are convinced that there are even greater dangers in permitting the perpetuation of minority rule and the failure to provide an outlet for the legitimate political aspirations of Africans."
How anyone can believe that 96 per cent. of a population without constitutional rights will forever remain under the rule of the remaining 4 per cent. is simply historically, socially and in every other way impossible. Therefore, we now have an opportunity—I believe a really good one—for a solution in Rhodesia.
I put one technical argument relating to the port of Lourenço Marques, which is essential to Rhodesia. That port is also essential to South Africa and it is necessary for South Africa to come to terms. That is what Mr. Vorster is trying to do. It is clear that Mr. Vorster is seriously considering what is to be done about Namibia. I do not want to get into arguments on this, but I make this appeal to noble Lords opposite who do not agree with me. Would they not be serving the interests of their white Rhodesian friends by urging them now to achieve a settlement before it is too late?
In my opinion, they will not be justified in relying upon the support of South Africa indefinitely. South Africa's own survival will be at stake unless they come to terms with the new forces in Europe. This chance must not be missed. We have seen too much of young South Africans and young Rhodesians leaving their countries because they have so little hope. Despite the inconsistencies and difficulties of a sanctions policy, I believe that we must continue to enforce it in the hope that within a reasonable time the appalling dangers that confront all those living in South Africa will be removed. I beg noble Lords to approach this problem with some hope and to give a united British approach to it.
5.19 p.m.
LORD FRASER OF LONSDALE: My Lords, matters beyond my control led to my missing the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Carrington. I deeply regret that and apologise to him.
A NOBLE LORD: And the Minister.
LORD FRASER OF LONSDALE: No, I heard that of the noble Lord, Lord Goronwy-Roberts. Nevertheless I did hear my noble friend Lord Coleraine saying that the noble Lord, Lord Carrington, had emphasised again the old argument that anything we do that appears too friendly towards South Africa will upset the rest of Africa. Is that correct?
LORD CARRINGTON: My Lords, I do not want to interrupt, but that is rather a simplification of what I said. I was building up what I believed to be a logical argument for a continuation of sanctions of which I myself disapproved and I voted against it in this House when they were proposed. What I said was that when you consider whether at this juncture sanctions should be removed any Government and anybody who proposed to vote on whether or not this Order should be continued, must take into account all the relevant factors and the situation of this country at the present time.
LORD FRASER OF LONSDALE: Yes, my Lords; I accept that perhaps Lord Carrington's point was that one of the factors is the attitude of the rest of Africa. I hope that is fair. I doubt very much whether the rest of black Africa would be greatly influenced one way or the other. I doubt it very much. It would be a nine-day wonder. They go where the trade is best. That is what they have done in the past; and, of all the people who have broken sanctions, it has been them. I have no financial interests in Rhodesia, but I do declare a great interest in South Africa. That is next door, and therefore what happens in Rhodesia is very important to my country.
I have noted in to-day's Daily Express. and in the Guardian. that Mr. Smith is reported to have said—and this has been the theme of some of the speeches to-day; or, at any rate, it seems to have influenced the noble Lord, Lord Goronwy-Roberts, the noble Lord, Lord Shackleton, and others—that there is now a chance of some kind of an agreement or arrangement which perhaps did not exist before, and that he discerned signs in other countries, meaning, presumably, in South Africa. That is part of the point which has already been made by noble Lords opposite. I am bound to join in hoping

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that this could be so, although for reasons which I shall elaborate a little later (although I shall not speak for very long) I doubt very much if it will work even then. However, I want to place on record that I have noted Mr. Smith's optimism, and if we could have a settlement and if it could be enduring (which is the point which I really doubt) nobody would wish for it more than I.
May I recite very briefly a few of the facts about Rhodesia which I think should be borne in mind with advantage. There is this thing called inflation. In Rhodesia, inflation is estimated by Mr. Smith's Government to be running at 3½ per cent. This is not just an optimistic view held by Mr. Smith; it is supported by the big Banks—the Standard Bank, Barclays Bank and the Nedbank—who operate in that country and who can judge. It is estimated that it might rise to 7 per cent. in the coming year because of oil.
My Lords, the figures are 3½ per cent. and 7 per cent. Will noble Lords remember those figures? Noble Lords may not have heard them for many years, but they may be allowed to remember them to-day. Then there is devaluation. There has been no devaluation of the Rhodesian currency. Even the strong Rand in South Africa has been devalued by 18 per cent. The devaluation of the pound during the previous nine years has been 40 per cent. There is no balance-of-payments problem in Rhodesia. The education provided by Britain is, I believe, at a cost of 6 per cent. of our gross national income. In Rhodesia, 8 per cent. is spent on education for the blacks only and is provided by the whites wholly. May we remember some of these facts, and possibly agree that Mr. Smith, with his minority and in all the circumstances of that country, is doing rather better than some of us in Europe and possibly rather better than we here in this old country. It is worth bearing in mind.
Let us turn to Mozambique. It has not been settled who is to govern Mozambique. There are two Parties there. One of them is pro-South African and probably pro-Rhodesian—at any rate, it is pro-trade. My Lords, 70 per cent. of Mozambique's living comes from South Africa and Rhodesia by shipping, by providing labour for the mines et cetera. It
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is my guess that they will go on with it. How can they afford not to? There is the matter of the writ. Our writ does not run. My noble friend Lord Barnby has pointed out how it hardly runs in Ulster. How can it run 8,000 miles away? It does not run. Therefore the power and influence which we are supposed to possess is imaginary. I honestly believe (and this brings me to my real point) that the example of what has happened since the speech about the wind of change—which indicated the British desire and intention to free what had hitherto been British Colonies from colonial rule and to give them independence—does not encourage me to believe in majority voting in Africa.
May I simply remind the House of what has happened. The British, acting sincerely and following a long-delayed desire to give independence to these people who had only recently in historical terms learned about government (they had not then learned very much) and who were accustomed to tribal systems, nevertheless gave them that independence, with a little Parliament, an Opposition and a Government, with votes for all adults. Every British Colony has had this, and every one of them, my Lords, has rejected it. It is they who have rejected it: not we who have denied it. We have given it in good faith and in generosity, and it has been rejected. In place of it there is a dictatorship, a semi-dictatorship or a single-Party State. It is not for me to say that our system in Westminster is better than any other in the world. Perhaps the system in America is better than ours. Perhaps the system in France is better still, or that in Germany. Perhaps the systems used in Africa or Asia are better. It is not for us to be arrogant and to pretend that we alone have the wisdom of Parliaments, although at least we claim to be the Mother of Parliaments. It is not for us to be arrogant to that extent.
These systems are different, but they are applied to different people in different surroundings. If one were to have "one man one vote" in Rhodesia either immediately, as has been thought, or later, as has been more wisely suggested, over a long period of time, what would be the effect of it? It would be to return a wholly black Government, as has happened in the Bahamas. Once that

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happened in Rhodesia, any black Government would stay there. How? By declaring the forthcoming Election illegal before it happened or while it was progressing. That has been done in Africa. Or, alternatively, simply by not having another Election. "One man one vote once"—it is very simple, and it is the right way to become a dictator. If one enjoys the amenities of Government, the power and the money, then one stays in Office, and the easiest way to stay in Office is not to have another Election. That is what will happen in Rhodesia. So one will be substituting for Mr. Smith's Government another type of Government.
I do not want to make invidious comparisons, but it cannot be beyond our observations that Mr. Smith's Government is managing well, and the figures I gave earlier in this speech show that it is managing very well by comparison with many countries in Europe, and even with ourselves in Britain. The Rhodesians are better off, not worse off, as the years go by; all of them, I mean—black and white together, and the coloureds. They are managing very well. The economy of the country, the business of the country, the finance, as well as the Government, are managed by the whites. Inevitably, one will be substituting for a Government of people who are governing well, who know the art of government and who have practised it for a long time, a Government of persons (I will put it in the most polite and simplest way I can) who have not acquired all those experiences and attributes.
How can one expect the Rhodesian people to be better off under that change? One cannot. Nor are their sensibilities, their culture, their history or their tradition so advanced that the spiritual desire to be free, so-called, would compensate for worse government, poverty and unemployment. That is the choice. It has been said that the Irish much prefer to be free to slaughter each other or the British, and that it is much more fun that way than to be part of Britain and have law and order. I understand that practice with the Irish, but they have been a long time practised in the art of developing that view of life. It is not so in Africa. It is beyond belief that Rhodesia will be better off under a change of Government
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of the kind noble Lords opposite want to see.
My Lords, I come to sanctions themselves. They have not been effective; they are bound to come to an end in time, not at our will but just as sanctions have always come to an end and just as rebellions have always succeeded unless they are put down swiftly and by force. We were not willing to do that nine years ago and we are not willing to do it now. I do not know whether we should have the power but we certainly have not the will, so we must just wait for the confrontation to come to an end by the effluxion of time. But how much time? A sensible Government in Britain would recognise that the country was no longer a double naval power as it used to be, that it is no longer the proud country that ruled the waves and that we have reached the stage where have to waive the rules. There it is. A sensible Government in Britain would see this coming and make terms before it came, making themselves look wise and generous instead of waiting for it to come and looking foolish.
UDI will remain, Rhodesia will stay outside and one day it will be recognised by somebody and then, in the end, by us. It has already been said that one does recognise Amin—God knows why!—so why not face the fact that we should now call it a day? Rhodesia is a country which is governed by decent people, our own kith and kin, men like my ancestors and the ancestors of many from Durham mines and from Cornish mines and from the Lancashire mills who went out there 80 or 100 years ago, settled and bred and whose sons and grandsons are there now. Why not recognise that they are governing the place well, that the alternative would not be as good and call it a day? Britain ought to have the courage to do that because if it does not do it now it will have to do it very soon.
5.34 p.m.
LORD BALFOUR OF INCHRYE: My Lords. the noble Lord, Lord Foot, started his speech by building up his opponent's case in order to knock it down. which is a very well-known forensic method. The noble Lord, Lord Foot, was so sympathetic with those of us who are critical of sanctions that he said that nothing was always black or always white, but that usually there was a colour between. At

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the same time, he seemed to deny the position that my noble friends Lord Carrington and Lord Coleraine take, and which I take myself, that it is possible to oppose sanctions as such, to dislike them, but at the same time to be quite willing to let this Order go through without a Division. That is not an unfair description of the position taken by many of us who are critical.
My Lords, I have listened to debates on sanctions over ten years and I have never myself spoken, though I have positive views. I start from the premise, which I hope is common ground, of wanting to see in Rhodesia a peaceful, prosperous, multi-racial society evolved by the rejection of extremes, on the one hand the extreme of NIBMAR—no independence before majority rule—and on the other hand anything approaching the South African brand of apartheid. with what seems to me its denial of human dignity to Africans within its borders. I suggest—and I hope that I am still on common ground—that we seek a society where responsibility and power do not go by colour, but go by quality and merit which all should have chances of developing and exercising. If one accepts that general premise, one can ask oneself: how far have sanctions helped towards such a society?
Alternatively, as the noble Lord, Lord Foot, said, many of us feel that the effect of sanctions over ten years has been not to promote that society but to strengthen the Smith régime for which I do not think any noble Lord in this House has a very strong feeling of support. The original purpose of the sanctions was to force white Rhodesia to its knees politically and economically, and the expression used at that time was, "in months". This policy has demonstrably failed and I think it is generally admitted by people, including the present Foreign Secretary, Mr. Callaghan, that though sanctions have damaged the economy they will never break it, and that there is in the white Rhodesians a stubborn courage which will make them face any hardship in the cause of what they think is right. The white resistance has been growing.
My Lords, I must say that I have some sympathy for the supporters in Rhodesia of the illegal régime. Could they not have felt in 1965 that our Parliament was acting so unjustly that they were absolved from
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compliance with the law? I have the words of the Secretary of State for the Environment on another subject. He said that the law in question,
"…offended a basic sense of natural justice."—[OFFICIAL REPORT, Commons, 6/11/74; col. 1077.]
I am not arguing whether that law was right or wrong. What I am asking your Lordships to consider for a moment is whether the white Rhodesians in 1965 may not have felt something parallel to what Mr. Crosland was referring to in the statement which I quoted.
My Lords, the second question I ask is this. If—and it is generally admitted—the economic and political purposes of sanctions have failed, and are failing, to crush the régime of Mr. Smith, what is the purpose of sanctions? Is it, as the Guardian. wrote once, that
"There is always the chance that enough white Rhodesians will tire of the precarious illegality in which they live and decide to emigrate, leaving the economy more vulnerable"?
I hope that there is nothing of that sort underlying the purpose of sanctions, because it is a terrible philosophy that one should break down an economy and force people to emigrate in order to alter the form of government.
If it is not that, is it punishment? If so, is it a punishment for those who refuse to alter their form of government to conform with other political views in Africa and at the United Nations? Is it a form of demonstration that we stand alongside the rest of Africa and deplore the refusal of Rhodesia to govern itself in accordance with the views held by other countries in Africa, including those vociferous voices at the United Nations of people who in their own countries, I regret to say, exercise oppression, denial of liberty and racial discrimination?
It seems to me that when they protest in this fashion there is something akin to a double standard going on at the United Nations, where the African countries indulge in such criticism of the white régime in Rhodesia. My fear is that the result of the continuation of sanctions and the present pressure for intensifying them (which I doubt will succeed) may tread underfoot such small young shoots of the delicate plants of reason and compromise as exist in the Rhodesian political soil; because, finally, it is reason and compromise which must prevail in some form.

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I should like, if I may, to refer to a point which was made by my noble friend. I regret that I did not hear it being made, but I understand that the noble Lord, Lord Goronwy-Roberts, will be dealing with it in his winding-up speech. I fear that the Government are using a duality of words and are making a future settlement more difficult by such a practice. The Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary last night said that the time is past when Britain and Salisbury could agree on a Constitution. At the same time, if we maintain sanctions until an agreement is acceptable to all Africans it means that Her Majesty's Government are giving a blank cheque to the African majority, who can veto all proposals that do not concede majority rule here and now, which is their declared purpose.
I hope that the Government will make very clear, when they say that a settlement is not now possible between Salisbury and London, and that a settlement must be acceptable to all Africans, that they do not mean that as a concession to extremist views, because if so it will do almost infinite harm to the prospect of final settlement. I hope the Government will pull back from any such extreme view which rejects compromise and which invites, finally, violence.
As I said at the beginning of my few remarks, I accept that sanctions must go on. But let us ponder for a moment the words used by Sir Alec Douglas-Home—and may I say that I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Shackleton, that we are fortunate and happy in the prospect of shortly seeing him among us. On June 15, 1972, in another place, Sir Alec said this at column 1763:
"… if at some future date we decide that sanctions have finally failed in their purpose, or that the evasions are so widespread that they are intolerable, we should not act in some hole and corner manner. We should come to the House and go to the United Nations and state the case plainly for a change of policy."—[OFFICIAL REPORT, Commons.]
I hope that during this year we shall lose no chance of using a moderating influence on the Left and Right elements in Rhodesia. I do not think it is any good recriminating about the past. What we have to look at now are the present and the future. During the coming year I hope we shall try to build a foundation for that society which I described at the
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beginning of my remarks. If some progress is made before this time next year, I hope the Government will have the courage to go to the United Nations Organisation, as Sir Alec Douglas-Home suggested and, while showing distaste for this régime, say that the time has come to announce that "enough is enough of this mistaken failure".
5.47 p.m.
LORD ALPORT: My Lords, my noble friend Lord Coleraine has the ability to say the most provocative things with an air of sweeter reasonableness than anybody else in your Lordships' House. I am tempted to follow the noble Lord, Lord Shackleton, in commenting on some of the points that he made with which I profoundly disagree. I hope he will forgive me if on this occasion I do not do so—not because I would not like to do so, but because I do not want to be led astray from the argument which I hope to put before your Lordships during the few minutes I shall be addressing the House.
Unlike the noble Lord, Lord Balfour of Inchrye, I am afraid that I have, on many previous occasions, wearied your Lordships by speeches on this subject, but not, I think, during recent debates. Over the last two years or more, I have felt that there was very little new to say about the Rhodesian problem. But as the Minister, the noble Lord, Lord Goronwy-Roberts, has said—and he was echoed by others—the situation has changed radically during the last three months.
I confess I thought that the collapse of Portuguese authority in Mozambique would follow a mutiny of the black troops. Instead, it has been precipitated by the constructive mutiny of white officers. Although I always knew that South Africa regarded the white community in Rhodesia as expendable, I did not realise that the Government in Pretoria would be as quick on their feet as they have been during the last few days. Mr. Vorster has asked for twelve months to put the relations between the races in South Africa on a more viable footing. He, at any rate (whatever may be the results of what he does) has got his time-scale right and that, in my view, is the most important point which we in this country and those who are concerned with the situation in Southern Africa have to

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bear in mind. I suggest to your Lordships that a settlement in Rhodesia must be achieved within a year from now. That is a desperately short period of time, and that is all the time that is left for Rhodesians, South Africans and British to evolve a pattern of political progress in Southern Africa which will make it possible to avoid a catastrophe that will destroy so much of what has been achieved in Southern Africa over the last 1G0 years and more.
As I have said on a previous occasion to your Lordships, I can proudly trace back my heritage in South Africa for more than three centuries. I, perhaps as much as anybody in the British Parliament, have an incentive to do anything I personally can—and it is so little—to avoid a catastrophe which lies ahead. It is for this reason that I have tried to involve successive British Governments in making a constructive contribution to the achievement of a political solution which will give to that splendid area of this troubled world a chance of a prosperous and peaceful future. I believe that even to-day the key to this solution lies in Rhodesia. Let me say in parenthesis that when I talk about a time-scale of one year I am speaking not only from such political instincts as I might have myself, but of what I know from the information that I have been able to obtain from the admittedly tenuous contacts which T have had with the African leadership in Rhodesia during these past few months.
Whether or not we like it, and in spite of what my noble friend Lord Coleraine said, we, the British people, have a responsibility for the future of Rhodesia which is not discharged simply by renewing this Order in Council which we now have under discussion. We cannot, like a one-time colonial governor, Pontius Piiate, wash our hands of a major residual responsibility of an Empire which we created. I do not suggest that we can determine the policies of an ex-Commonwealth member, South Africa; their salvation lies in their own hands. But our ability to achieve a settlement in Rhodesia, even at the eleventh hour, could not only discharge the historic debt to the peoples of that part of Africa, but perhaps—and this to me is equally important—open the way to the containment
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of the dangerous situation which faces black and white alike in the whole of Southern Africa.
It is desperately difficult to produce some constructive solution, and I realise that we may, as we have on previous occasions, fail; but I suggest that the Government, and we who are concerned with this matter, would be culpable if we did not even try. I welcome, as other noble Lords have done, the intention of the Foreign Secretary to pay a personal visit to the countries of Africa North of the Zambesi and South of the Sahara. I hope that this will be a prelude to an initiative by the British Government to set up a Rhodesian Constitutional Conference. I know that the noble Lord, Lord Goronwy-Roberts, said in his speech that this is a question of timing, and there must be some reason to suppose that those who take part in it must be willing to do so. But the fact of the matter is that an initiative, even if it were to fail at this present time, gives a chance of some progress towards what is the only possible method and avenue available to us of making any progress at all.
The object of that conference should be not merely a constitutional settlement but a way of trying to provide for Rhodesia in the future a multi-racial basis for its existence. I studied with care and appreciation Lord Greenhill of Harrow's speech last week on the debate on the Address. It was derived from a long experience of the world and compassion for those who are now face to face with the realities of Africa in that part of the world. The House will remember the noble Lord suggesting that there should be some means of finding financial support to remove those Europeans who would no longer wish to remain in Rhodesia if there was a settlement uncongenial to them. I think white men and white women who have chosen to live in the sunlight of Rhodesia and to enjoy, as we all remember, the blue horizons and the hills in the distance—and that, to me at any rate, evokes Africa—who have chosen the easier way of life during these past years, and the privileges which they have undoubtedly enjoyed there (which my noble friend Lord Fraser of Lonsdale mentioned to some extent) should not be allowed at the expense of the British taxpayer, or his opposite

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number in the Commonwealth, to be baled out of the consequences of their choice.
I believe that Africa and the Africans need the European. I think Rhodesia would be a better country with a leaven of a loyal European community than it would be as a black African country, subject possibly to 'the tragic fate which has overtaken Uganda. I do not forget, and perhaps many of your Lordships do not forget either, that there was a time many years ago when Joshua Nkomo spoke as a Rhodesian from a Rhodesia which was neither black nor white. If we accept that there cannot be a multiracial solution for Rhodesia, how can we believe in a multi-racial solution for South Africa? And what then can be the future for European and African in Southern Africa as a whole?
What I am trying to say is that this is not a question simply of finding a constitutional political settlement which is viable in Rhodesia. Our object in that particular part of Africa should be to find what we originally tried to find in our policies of successive Governments in the past, a multi-racial solution which enabled black and white to live together in harmony in the same country and under the same laws. It is for this reason that I implore the British Government to try to take the initiative now or subsequent perhaps to the Foreign Secretary's visit. Let him by all means explore the ground. There may be new factors arising as a result of changes which have taken place which must be considered in taking that initiative. Then try to bring together a Rhodesian Constitutional Conference which could meet the needs of the situation, and a constitutional settlement, if that is the right phrase, in which the British will have a major part to play in accordance with the responsibilities which we continue to hold, whether or not we like it. Our contribution should be, so far as possible, as the noble Lord, Lord Greenhill of Harrow, suggested, on an all-Party basis. Our second component must be from the Europeans in Rhodesia, representative of the Smith régime and of the Opposition.
The next component must be the ANC under the leadership of Bishop Musarawa, and there must also be representatives of ZANU and ZAPU, the two militant
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organisations, because it is clear, whether or not we like it, that no settlement of any sort will stick unless those two organisations are parties to that settlement. In my view there should be representatives or observers of Zambia, Malawi, the Republic of South Africa and Botswana. This is a very tall order against the practical possibilities. My noble friend on my right smiles, laughs and derides it, but the alternative is what we have to consider. In politics we are not thinking of what is good, what is bad, what is right, what is wrong, the whole time; one is very often, as in life, choosing between the lesser of two evils. The evil that lies ahead of Southern Africa is something about which the speeches of so many of my noble friends in this debate this afternoon appear to be completely unaware.
I can assure my noble friends who are unaware of them that the Government in South Africa, and, increasingly, the Government in Rhodesia, are only too well aware of the dangers which lie ahead not in the long term, but within a matter of twelve months from now. It is no good pretending that time can solve this problem, as my noble friend Lord Fraser of Lonsdale seemed to suggest. The only way it will be solved in that case is in terms of blood and destruction. Let the object of the conference which I suggest be the creation of a multi-racial political system in Rhodesia, which might not only help with the solution of the problems of the Republic but also influence developments in Angola and Mozambique. If the whole world is to retreat into racial enclaves I am certain that no one will suffer more than the vulnerable and disadvantaged black people of Africa. Those of us who have tried to rescue individuals from the bloody tyranny of Uganda, and who have watched the impact of famine in Ethiopia and in the one-time colonial territories of France, South of the Sahara, know what is at stake in an Africa which is abandoned by the rest of the world.
Let me say this, finally. A constitutional conference, difficult though it is, politically so impossible as it may appear to be to so many of your Lordships, is what the moderate Africans in Rhodesia at the present time want and are prepared to support and accept, so far as I

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understand. There are still moderates among the Africans of Rhodesia, but they are becoming fewer. By the end of 1975 they will have lost the initiative to the militants unless they can show some progress towards a political solution; and once they have finally lost the initiative to the militants then the worse will have come to the worst. This is now a race against time as well as a struggle against heavy political odds for Europeans in Rhodesia. Her Majesty's Government may not be able to ensure that the race is won, but, my Lords, an initiative within the very near future would, at any rate, give us some hope of success.
6.3 p.m.
VISCOUNT MASSEREENE AND FERRARD: My Lords, I must apologise for addressing your Lordships again on this subject but I feel, and always have felt, very strongly on it because I have quite a few acquaintances and one or two friends in Rhodesia. I have never had one pound invested in the country. After listening to the noble Lord who has just sat down I would say he has moved a little to the Right in his opinion on how we should look at Africa. I was pleased to hear his speech and I can agree with a great deal of what he said. I remember the last debate on the Rhodesia Sanctions Order which we had last year, when my Party were in Government. The noble Baroness, Lady Tweeds-muir of Belhclvie, opened for the Government, I believe, although I am speaking from memory, and at some point in her speech (I think the noble Lord, Lord Balfour of Inchrye, also referred to the subject) she said that if sanctions were proved to have failed the then Foreign Secretary, Sir Alec Douglas-Home, if he was quite convinced of that, might go to the United Nations and put before them the fact that in this country's opinion sanctions had failed and we should try to evolve a new approach to the problem of Rhodesia.
I have figures regarding the economy of Rhodesia, which show that in 1972 they had a balance-of-payments deficit with the rest of the world of about £2 million. I am told that in 1973 they had a surplus balance of payments of £24 million—I cannot remember how many Rhodesian dollars that is. That is a growth rate of 65 per cent. If those figures are correct—and I have no reason
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to doubt them—economically it can be said that sanctions have failed. The argument is, of course, put forward that sanctions are an incentive to make the Rhodesian Government come to a settlement. I should like to take up the point which the noble Lord, Lord Foot, made in the earlier part of his speech—and I agree with the earlier part of his speech. He said that, in his opinion (I hope I am quoting him correctly), sanctions were making the Rhodesian Government and those who support them obstinate; being a small minority, sanctions were binding them together out of loyalty. At the same time he said—and I could not quite follow his argument here—that if sanctions were withdrawn it would not make them less obstinate. I cannot agree there. It is not so much the economic effect of sanctions that is worrying them—although, of course, it does worry them—because with this balance of payments surplus sanctions would not appear to be doing so much harm as one might imagine. What infuriates them is the insult to their integrity, to think that they are held up to the world as tyrants whereas, in fact, they are quite the reverse and are trying to lead the Africans by education eventually to play a greater part in the government of their country. I cannot agree with the noble Lord, Lord Foot, that if sanctions were withdrawn it would not make the Rhodesian Government more amenable. From what my friends in that country tell me, it would make them more amenable to a settlement.
May I take up one or two points made by the noble Lord opposite, Lord Goronwy-Roberts. Correct figures can give rather the wrong impression. The noble Lord said—I have written it down, although I cannot remember his precise words—how unjust it was that 250,000 whites should rule 6 million blacks. We have to remember that of those 6 million Africans, three-quarters are below voting age; the number may be more than three-quarters. The noble Lord did not point out also that there are Rhodesian African Members of Parliament. It is true that they are not many. Although I do not go along with much that is done by the Rhodesian Government, I have always understood that their policy is not to exclude Africans from voting; their policy is to ensure that if an African has

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a vote, he has a certain standard of education to understand what he is voting about.
I have only slight practical experience of Africa compared with the experience of many of your Lordships, but I have considerable experience of the West Indies because I used to have agricultural property there. I remember, for instance, that when a form of democracy and a vote was introduced in Jamaica it was quite impossible to explain to the average Jamaican what having the vote really meant. That is notwithstanding the fact that we look upon the Jamaicans, particularly, as rather more advanced than the average tribal African.
However, I should like to make the point, as the noble Lord knows perfectly well, that there are moderate black African Members of Parliament in the Rho-desian Government. I appreciate that the situation has altered now. It has altered considerably as a result of what has happened in Mozambique. A great many of us on these Benches would agree that it has amounted almost to a Communist invasion of Mozambique, and that has altered the situation regarding Rhodesia.
My Lords, while on that subject, I understand that we are going to recommence aid to Tanzania. I do not object to that. But anybody who has been in Africa knows that much of the Communist terrorism comes from Tanzania—no doubt paid for by the Chinese. I hope that if we give funds to Tanzania, Her Majesty's Government will ensure, as, of course, they would want to ensure, that they do not fall into the wrong hands. I should like to make that point because so far as the British taxpayer is concerned it would be monstrous if we had to subsidise bloodshed in Africa. It would be appalling.
My Lords I know one or two British people who have had their assets confiscated and who have lost their businesses in Tanzania. If we are going to give money to that country, first of all I think we ought to compensate British people who have had their assets in that country confiscated by the Government, but preferably to make the Tanzanian Government compensate them.
If I may return to the question of sanctions, I do not think that sanctions
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will ever succeed. The reason is, of course, that not only in Rhodesia but also in other countries (not that I advocate contracting out of our international obligations; we must always act according to international law) many people are chary as to the original legality of the action over Rhodesia. However, you cannot have it both ways. If Rhodesia were an independent country, then she ought to have an opportunity to put her case to the United Nations; but we say we are responsible for her and that she is not an independent country. Under Chapter 6 of the United Nations Charter, if she were not an independent country sanctions would be completely illegal. Many people know this and that is why, so long as sanctions remain, they will rebel against them. You will rouse their human spirit of moral indignation. I am unable to see sanctions doing anything but harm, either to Africans or to Europeans.
Talking of harm, my Lords, if we consider the education of Africans in Rhodesia, a lot of funds have been held up, owing to sanctions, which could have gone towards educating the Africans in Rhodesia. It is tragic that we are now in the tenth year of sanctions. One noble Lord said that there are good African leaders. I admit that, but we all know that there are no democracies in Africa. As has been said this afternoon, if you had one vote per African in Rhodesia to-day, it would result in a black Government and it would be the last democratic election that you would ever have in that country. You would probably get a dictatorship—as the majority of black Africa is ruled to-day. It might be all right if somebody like Dr. Banda or President Kaunda emerged. but one would be taking a great gamble. What would probably emerge would be chaos and the destruction of the economy, with resultant hardship for the African population. As I say, one would be taking a great gamble. After all, we have had many instances in Africa where, by laying down our responsibilities, the worst has happened, the most recent case being Uganda. I know it is very difficult for Her Majesty's Government, but I am sure that they would obtain great good will, not only from the Rhodesian Government but also from many Africans in Rhodesia, if they would hold out the

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hand of friendship. I agree that this may not be the moment to go to the United Nations regarding sanctions. However, they should hold out the hand of friendship and try to forget some of their Fabian dogma.
My Lords, I was pleased to hear the noble Lord, Lord Alport, talk about consultation. The more conferences we can have on this subject the better. If you can keep people talking, usually you can stop them from fighting. Therefore, the more consultation Her Majesty's Government can have the better. If you hold out the hand of friendship, I am sure that you will receive friendship in return. I know a great many people in Rhodesia who are very hurt by the attitude of this country towards them. I agree that it would require great statesmanship, but if only Her Majesty's Government could do that I am sure that they would be surprised by the results.
My Lords, I will not say any more, except that we must try to compromise; we must not stand too much on our dignity. Many international lawyers have told me that it is a dubious question whether the imposition of sanctions was legal, anyway. Therefore we must not stand too much on our dignity but must try to reach a settlement by compromise.
6.20 p.m.
LORD GRIDLEY: My Lords, I should like to endorse the last sentences uttered by the previous speaker, Lord Massereene and Ferrard, with regard to using conciliatory tactics and persuasive talk with Rhodesians in trying to settle this problem. When one comes to this time of night, at the end of this debate, and one has listened to the very interesting speeches which have been made by previous speakers, one derives a great deal of comfort for from my experience of having been overseas for 30 years and having been employed by the Colonial Office, I have been able to see the decisions which were taken by various Parliaments as a result of deliberations in your Lordships' House and in the other place, and consistently I must subscribe to the fact that the decisions taken here have been mostly for the good.
At the same time, if there is one thing which has rather dispirited me in this debate- it is the fact that we have concen-
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trated rather on issues outside the particular issue which faces the white settler in Rhodesia. Over a period of 30 years I was privileged to see the great contribution which was made to our Empire and Commonwealth by our own kith and kin, and particularly was this demonstrated when I was with them in Singapore—in Changi—when the very finest qualities which they had to exhibit at that time came to the fore in the conditions there existing. The conditions which are operating in Rhodesia are such that we have there settlers who have more or less divorced themselves from this country and have carried out a mission there of establishing themselves among the Africans. They have carried on trade in that country and their homes are there, and I am quite sure that the qualities that I have observed in various parts of the world certainly exist among the white Rhodesians in Rhodesia. Therefore, while all my life I have been involved in leading the particular countries with which I was concerned towards their own self-government, and while I subscribe to the view that quite obviously that is the policy which is right for Rhodesia, I hope that in this dispute, which is really with the white Rhodesians, their claims will not be overlooked in any settlement which takes place. That is my first plea to Her Majesty's Government, and I hope that in this conference which I believe is about to take place full effect will be given to the consideration of the white settlers.
With regard to the continuance of sanctions, I quite see that to-night we have probably to pass this Order, but on general grounds I am against the continuance of sanctions. First, always having had a respect for British Governments and Parliamentary institutions, it seems to me that to persist with a British policy into its tenth year when we have failed to obtain by means of sanctions the objectives which we set out to obtain, is to advertise for all to see what people will interpret to be the bankruptcy of British statesmanship. It will further, to some extent, also advertise what some people will interpret to be the incompetence of ourselves in Parliament. In that situation it is particularly undesirable at the present time, when the authority of Parliament from a number of directions is under a certain amount of challenge and attack in our own country. That is

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one point I want to make in regard to the continuance of sanctions.
Secondly—and I will not repeat what has been said by other speakers—quite obviously the object for which we originally introduced sanctions has really been achieved by events in Mozambique and other parts of Portuguese Africa, and it is now most important that Mr. Smith should not exhibit any obstinacy or obduracy when the time comes for talks to take place, whenever that may be. Conditions now are obviously favourable for the exhibition of statesmanship. I was particularly pleased (and this has been mentioned by other speakers) that President Kaunda is using his good offices to get these talks under way. So if they do take place in the near future I wish the very best of good fortune to Her Majesty's Government in their efforts to seek a reasonable, satisfactory and fair solution to all people in Rhodesia and elsewhere in Africa.
In a sense it has been said—I think it was said by the noble Lord, Lord Foot—that it would look bad if unilaterally we took our own action with regard to sanctions; in other words, if by ourselves we were to withdraw sanctions. As I understand the position, it is quite impossible for us to take any action with regard to sanctions without the agreement of the United Nations. It has been said by speakers in this debate that if we even suggested the discontinuance of sanctions this would immediately annoy other coloured Governments and coloured leaders in Africa. I sometimes think we are rather frightened of going to the leaders of Africa and of African opinion and pointing out to them that circumstances have now changed, and that it might be conducive to any negotiations in which we might be involved to conduct them without the duress of sanctions hanging over the head of one party. I feel that has been overlooked in this debate: in any case nobody has suggested it, but I wonder whether perhaps it might suggest itself to Her Majesty's Government. I well understand that they had to take action with regard to the unilateral declaration of independence. Her Majesty's Government could not absolve themselves from doing that, but new circumstances have arisen and I feel that perhaps the suggestion would not be
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received with the hostility which certain noble Lords—and I think Her Majesty's Government—might feel would come from African leaders in Africa.
That is all I really wish to say, except that I happened to see part of the leading article in the Daily Mirro. this morning which I do not think really helps the situation. They said this of Mr. Smith:
"His Government wants a society in which merit matters more than colour."
They went on to say:
"This will be a change for Rhodesia, where so far colour has been the one thing that counts."
What an extraordinary thing to write in a British newspaper! Does writing of that kind really help Her Majesty's Government to a particular understanding of the issues involved at present? In the negotiations, both with the Government which is in power during the tenure of office as Prime Minister of Mr. Wilson, and with that at the time when Sir Alec Douglas-Home was conducting the negotiations with Rhodesia. the facts are that one of the qualifications concerning the role of African members in the House of Representatives in Rhodesia was that of merit as regards earning power, and so on. To distort that, and to write as if it were something entirely different, which is what was put in the article in the Daily Mirror. is thoroughly reprehensible.
My Lords, that is all I have to say. I wish Her Majesty's Government the very best of good fortune in their negotiations. We all hope these negotiations will have a successful outcome.
6.31 p.m.
LORD TREFGARNE: My Lords, I rise to speak on the subject of Rhodesia for the first time in all these nine years. I shall do so as shortly as possible. I have not spoken before because I suspect I am the most ill-informed of all your Lordships on this matter, never having been to Rhodesia, as so many of your Lordships have. But I, too, along with a great many of your Lordships, opposed the imposition of sanctions in 1965. I remember the slender majority by which sanctions were rejected on that occasion. I remember also how they were later allowed to pass. I think the misgivings expressed by so many of your Lordships

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on that occasion in 1965 have been amply justified.
Surely sanctions have manifestly failed. I further submit that to end sanctions now would not be the right course. They have been in force for nine years, and the psychological victory that would be thought to have been won by Mr. Smith would be a retrograde step, and would surely entrench him, and in particular his very Right-Wing friends, even more firmly than is the case at present. Therefore, the real issue is not for the unilateral ending of sanctions by itself, but for a general settlement. The ending of sanctions can surely only come as part of such a settlement.
The noble Lord. Lord Shackleton, invited noble Lords on this side of the House, particularly those sitting below the gangway, to use their influence with the whites in Rhodesia to bring about a settlement. I wonder whether I might ask the noble Lord—perhaps this is a little unfair since he will not be speaking again to-night—whether it would not be better for noble Lords on that side of the House themselves to try to achieve a settlement? I see the relationship between Westminster and Salisbury as one similar to that between parent and child. I wonder whether it is not in this case the prerogative of the parent to seek the settlement.
The right honourable gentleman the Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary is going to Africa shortly, we understand. Should he not include Salisbury in his itinerary rather than ostentatiously ignoring it as he is doing at the moment? Should he not go to try to achieve a settlement acceptable to all Rhodesians except, possibly, those with extreme views at both ends of the spectrum? We have tried before for a settlement. Let us remember that if at first we do not succeed, let us try, try and try again.
6.35 p.m.
LORD BEAUMONT OF WHITLEY: My Lords, we have had a very moderately-toned debate this afternoon, but I think rather a pessimistic one. With very few exceptions, there seems to be a consensus that sanctions have failed, but some think that it would be worse to remove them than to leave them on. I do not think we can say that sanctions have failed. The time-scale on
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which many of us have been thinking is possibly too short. Nine years or ten years is indeed a very long time. Quite a long time ago I formulated what I have come to call "The Beaumont Second Law of Reform"—that it takes you as long to get out of a mess as it took you to get into it. Probably the base date for the Rhodesian mess is somewhere back in the 'twenties, so we must have a little patience yet in order to see whether the policies of successive Governments will have an effect or not.
I agreed with the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine, when he said that sanctions had an effect on Portugal and on the whole position of the Portuguese in Africa, and that that in its turn will have an effect on Rhodesia. The fact that so many of the white officers in the Portuguese colonies saw (through the continuing imposition of sanctions) how isolated white South Africa was, was one of the reasons—only one of many, I have no doubt—which led to the breakup of the Portuguese régime. I would disagree with the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine, in thinking that the effect on Portugal is a bad thing. I have long thought that one of the great weaknesses of NATO was that it had undemocratic countries as component parts. As we all know, NATO is an organisation which is not purely military, but is for the propagation of democracy. Although I would regret it if Portugal went Communist, I am not entirely certain that a Communist Portugal outside NATO is very much worse than a Fascist Portugal inside NATO. The collapse of American policy in the Eastern Mediterranean shows what a mistake it is to rely on Right-Wing oppressive Governments in trying to support democratic ends.
In the long term, the most important thing we can do is to ensure that there is a friendly Africa to the South of us. This must be part of what influences us in considering our Simonstown Agreement, something which influences us in dealing with sanctions in Rhodesia. A friendly Africa will be one sphere where we are seen to do justice, where we have our responsibilities, but where we are seen not to play big Power politics. It is a mistake to think that Russia and China are necessarily obtaining large handholds on Africa. Much of what they do is

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bitterly resented by a great many of the black countries in Africa.
If I may return to the matter of sanctions, the noble Lord, Lord Fraser of Lonsdale, whose very thoughtful and well-argued speech I much appreciated, made a claim which surely he was not competent to judge—and nor would any of us be competent to judge. He said that the spiritual desire for freedom in Rhodesia at the moment (and I hope I am quoting the noble Lord correctly; he will correct me if I am wrong) the spiritual desire to be free was not strong enough to make up for the bad government that would ensue if there were a black Government in Rhodesia in the near future. I do not think that that is anything that the noble Lord can judge, nor that I can judge, nor that anyone here can judge. The question to ask ourselves is this: is the feeling of Africans so strong that there appears to be this spiritual desire to be free? Surely, the only evidence we have of that is the evidence of the Pearce Commission. The noble Lord, Lord Barnby, said that that was not a sufficiently wide spectrum of opinion to be reliable; a 6 per cent. sample, he said, is not adequate. If a 6 per cent. sample is not adequate, let us have a 100 per cent. sample; let us have one man one vote. And if, as the noble Lord, Lord Barnby, then went on to say, you cannot, for various reasons, have this and it is not very useful, what is the point of complaining that a 6 per cent. sample is too small? A 0 per cent. sample, which is what it boils down to when you rely on what the whites in Rhodesia say the blacks want, is certainly no better than 6 per cent. I would myself opt for 100 per cent.
The noble Lord, Lord Fraser, also suggested that the Rhodesian Government is a good one. I find that very difficult to stomach—a régime which has gone in for the mass transplantation of whole populations of natives from their homelands. How can that be a good Government by any standard? The noble Lord, Lord Barnby, went on to say that the result of freedom for Rhodesia would very likely be black tyranny of one kind or another. He condemned President Amin and I agree, speaking for myself, and not committing my Party of whose policy on this point, I regret to say, I am unaware. I would expel Uganda from the Common-
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wealth But African nationalism and African racialism is fed by white nationalism and white racialism, and it is the abolition of that which would help to get rid of some of the nationalism and racialism which we dislike so much in some of the black countries in Africa.
I agree that there is a strong possibility that if there is majority rule in Rhodesia the whites in Rhodesia may be in for a bad time; it is quite a possibility. Oppression breeds oppression; every action has an equal and opposite reaction. But the longer it goes on the worse will be the reaction. What we must pray for, what I think we would all agree we must work for, is a settlement as soon as possible, and a settlement that will bring justice to everyone in Rhodesia. I believe it can be shown that in the present situation in Africa sanctions are working: that they are keeping the pressure on. I therefore believe that Her Majesty's Government are not just making a negative gesture by not taking them off; I believe that Her Majesty's Government are right and positive to keep them on.
6.44 p.m.
LORD GORONWY-ROBERTS: My Lords, we have indeed had a most responsible and helpful debate. I am certainly aware of the very deep feelings felt by noble Lords in all parts of the House, and it is a mark of the maturity of this country, and I think of the help and leadership it may be able to give in the future in this and other similar contexts, that despite our divergence of view and even of feeling we always contrive to find a basic point of unity of purpose at least. I thought I saw this in the speech of the noble Lord the Leader of the Opposition who has very kindly informed me that he has another engagement which may prevent him from being with us at the end of this debate. The noble Lord. Lord Carrington. said that he wished that Her Majesty's Government would play a more constructive role in bringing about a settlement. I and all my colleagues devoutly wish it, too. There have been repeated attempts by successive Governments to try to get the illegal regime and the people who support them to see sense and to face reality. All these attempts have failed.
I am not going to say to all those noble Lords who have referred to the

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possibility of a Briiish initiative leading to a constitutional conference that we in any way rule that out, but I must repeat what I said when I opened this debate. First, we must be clear that such a conference would yield results. Secondly, the composition of such a conference—and here I join with the noble Lord, Lord Alport, although not in every one of the details of the composition he mentioned—would have to have room in it for representatives of all the peoples of Rhodesia. The noble Lord, Lord Alport, went outside Rhodesia for possible representatives. I do not know that I could follow him that far. But certainly I agree with him that such a conference would have to be comprehensive in membership and meaningful in purpose. It must not be a charade, a performance through which people go without a basic intention of giving and taking and arriving at a final agreement.
That brings me to a point which a number of noble Lords have quite rightly raised. What is the nature of the agreement which would commend itself to this country, which, after all, has a responsibility for the past and future of Rhodesia. What is the nature of the agreement we would welcome? It is an agreement that would commend itself to the peoples of Rhodesia. It is up to them to get together to discuss their differences, and by negotiation to frame a new system of life and government which will prove broadly acceptable to all sections of their people. And that, of course, in practice means that it has to be acceptable to the African population of Rhodesia, who. after all, as my noble friend Lord Shackleton reminded us, are 96 per cent. of the population. There is nothing to divide this Government from their predecessors in this respect.
LORD BARNBY: My Lords, is it going to be understood that chiefs are to be included as representing three-fifths of the populations in the tribal trust areas?
LORD GORONWY-ROBERTS: My Lords, I think it is for the Rhodesian people themselves to decide how they are represented, sectionally, tribally, Party-wise, in the kind of conference that I think we are all agreed would be meaningful.
I pass on now to the very substantial contribution made by the noble Lord,
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Lord Foot, who pertinently asked what would happen if we abandoned sanctions. This, after all, is the crux of our discussion. I have moved the Order. What would happen if, in a spirit of irresponsibility, we did not pass this Order. I am confident that, of course, whatever its views about sanctions, the House will agree that there is really no alternative to our passing this Order this afternoon. The noble Lord, Lord Foot, asked what would happen. I entirely agree with him that in Africa itself, in the international community in the UN and, if I may add, in the Commonwealth, the British position would be gravely prejudiced, if not rendered impossible. That would be no help to us, to the Rhodesians, or indeed to the cause of international co-operation and peace.
It is an interest of the world that this country should maintain the position. It is difficult to do so when it is increasingly seen to be a small country, without its former resources, honourably lost in defence of freedom in two world wars. But it is an interest of the world that we should be seen, as the noble Lord pointed out, to be upholding this decision, whatever reservations individual noble Lords may have had at the beginning or since, about the justification for the act of sanctions. The effects would really be calamitous in Africa, and indeed in wider fields, if we did not.
The noble Lord, Lord Barnby, pressed the point that my right honourable friend the Secretary of State should visit South Africa, and he was joined by a number of other noble Lords in hoping for this. The position is that my right honourable friend believes that he cannot do so on this occasion, when he visits Africa early in the new year, since he judges that such a visit, at this juncture at least, would create misunderstanding in other parts of Africa, and might inhibit the frank discussion that he wishes to have with African leaders. I think that it is a justifiable judgment to make. We shall of course be very anxious to consider the views of the leaders of all parts of Southern Africa. We are in touch with them all, not excepting Uganda. Even if we did not ask President Amin, he would take care to let us know what his views were. So I do not think the noble Lord should be unduly apprehensive about the fact that, this time at least,

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my right honourable friend will not include South Africa in his peregrinations.
The second point about the settlement is that of course we shall not, as I have said, accept or support a settlement which does not commend itself to the African majority. On the question which the noble Lord, Lord Beaumont of Whitley, underlined, and which had been raised by one or two other noble Lords, of how best to ascertain the views of the African majority, I can only commend to your Lordships a point made by a Member of another place on Friday—as it happens, an impeccably Conservative Member, who made this very logical point—that if a 6 per cent. sample interviewed by the Pearce Commission is too small, then logically the best thing to do is to have universal suffrage at once and then, as the noble Lord, Lord Beaumont, said, have a 100 per cent. expression of opinion. I liked the point, too, that at the moment, when the white Rhodesians tell us and the world what the black Rhodesians really want, it is a zero expression of black opinion in that country.
A number of noble Lords raised the question of immediate majority rule. My noble friend Lord Shackleton dealt very effectively with this point. It is the position that it is for the people of Rhodesia, by agreement, to decide their constitution, and the pace at which democratic majority government is introduced. This is not to say that distinguished Members of this House—and I refer particularly to the noble Lord, Lord Alport, who has a distinguished record of service in this area, like my noble friend Lord Shackleton—are not right in conveying a warning that time is short, that agreement must be reached possibly within the next year or so. There are certain indications that perhaps the time-scale of 12 months, as the noble Lord suggested, may be short. The point I am making is that agreement is urgent, but that agreement might well, indeed might wisely, provide for the movement towards democratic majority rule over a fairly extended period. What that period might be should be agreed by the Rhodesians, and become part of the acceptability of the final outcome.
The noble Viscount, Lord Massereene and Ferrard, like the noble Lord, Lord Fraser of Lonsdale, referred to the—as
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they saw it—success of the Rhodesian economy, and painted a glowing picture of the progress of that economy. Of course one could engage in a marathon debate, complete with statistics, on this question. I think that the short answer is also a fair one, that no doubt you can have a healthy balance of payments, no doubt you can point to certain growth, if your economy rests on an economic helotry involving millions of your fellow citizens. This country is now facing certain difficulties, and some of those difficulties arise from the fact that all our workers, all our people, increasingly share in the resources of the country. If, however, we were to retrocede and adopt discriminatory and unfair social and economic policies, if that were possible, it would act like magic on the statistics, if not on the health of our country.
VISCOUNT MASSEREENE AND FERRARD: My Lords, might I interrupt the noble Lord for a moment? I should like to point out, referring to the Rhodesian economy, that the African Rhodesian gets far higher wages than Africans in the black republics. I do not think the noble Lord is being quite fair here. I am told that the income of the Africans in black republics is only about £30 a year, and in the one or two republics that I have been in it is a lot less. It is far more than that in Rhodesia; it is over £100 a year.
LORD GORONWY-ROBERTS: My Lords, the noble Viscount is now comparing Rhodesia with the adjacent African countries. I was comparing—as he was formerly in his speech—Rhodesia with this country.
The noble Lord, Lord Alport, suggested that a conference should take place. He wants it early—otherwise, there may well be catastrophe—and he wants it to be comprehensive. I certainly agree with the second point. It is a matter of judgment how soon a British initiative, involving a conference of the kind he has in mind, should be launched. This takes me to the contribution made by the noble Lord, Lord Gridley, who pressed for a conciliatory approach to any negotiations, bilateral, individual, or conferential. I could not agree more. He linked this with the interests of the white Rhodesians. Indeed, it is very much in their interests that there should be effective, fruitful

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negotiations in the next few months, but it is for them to take the initiative. If they do, they can be assured, as can the other sections of the Rhodesian population, of every possible help and encouragement by Her Majesty's Government and I am sure by Her Majesty's Opposition in this country.
The noble Lord, Lord Balfour of Inchrye, whose speech I greatly regret I had to miss—because he knows, as a former Minister, that occasionally one is conscripted by spirits from the outer space when one is winding up; I hope the Civil Service will feel that they have been promoted rather than insulted by that description—made a point of semantics when it was reported to me, as I said I wanted him reported, that he made a distinction between support of Africans and acceptance of an agreement by Africans. The practical point, surely, is that at the end of the day no agreement is going to stick unless it commands the acceptance of the African majority who, after all, form 96 per cent. of the population. So I hope we shall not be spending too much time and energy in the next few weeks and months on words like "support", "accept", "endorse" and so on, but fix our minds firmly on the end product of a significant negotiation.
The noble Lord, Lord Balfour, also said that he hoped that Her Majesty's Government did not mean that our unreadiness at the moment to take an initiative with Salisbury was a concession to extreme views. I hope he has been reported correctly to me. I can assure him that this is not so. We join with the noble Lord, Lord Alport, in expressing our readiness at the right time to co-operate, to take an initiative which fulfils the reasonable conditions that I set out when I opened this debate—the comprehensive nature of a conference and also the likelihood of its being a conference in earnest about an appropriate result.
The noble Lord, Lord Trefgarne, also thought that the Secretary of State should go to Salisbury and seek a settlement there. My right honourable friend will do everything he can to bring about a settlement. He cannot, however, make the Rhodesians agree, and I think the experience of our predecessors, like ourselves—certainly after the Pearce Report and after the work of the Commission
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had taken place—is that it is no longer possible to look for a solution simply by representatives of this country going to the representatives of the illegal régime. The time for that is past. However, a much more radical and effective method would be that of beginning with a consensus within Rhodesia and then of taking every opportunity of promoting that, and of taking any initiative which would help it come to fruition. I think that the alternative policy commended itself to our predecessors and it certainly does to us.
I have left to the last the contribution of the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine, because I wanted to pay my respects to him as a distinguished Parliamentarian to whom I often listened with great advantage in the other place. Like my noble friend Lord Shackleton, I was sorry that the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine, struck such a despondent note. I do not share his despondency. He said that Rhodesia is now outside the control of Her Majesty's Government. In a sense it is. The crux of the Rhodesian problem is, and always has been, disparity between Britain's legal and constitutional responsibility on the one hand, and our limited power to influence events on the ground on the other. We have always made clear how limited that power is. The question is whether it would contribute towards a settlement and be compatible with Britain's wider interests in black Africa, in the United Nations and the Commonwealth, if we were to give up the responsibilities, however small our power may be. Successive Governments have thought not. There is a sense in which physical power is not always the deciding factor in situations like this.
I believe that we can influence events and decisions to the good in Rhodesia, and indeed in many other parts of the world. The noble Lord also said that it is sanctions which have driven Mr. Smith into extreme courses of action. All the evidence is to the contrary. Mr. Smith took his most extreme step, that is UDI, in 1965; sanctions were imposed as a result. Mr. Smith has made more attempts to engage representative Africans in political dialogue in the past 18 months than ever before; we would say because of sanctions. Perhaps the noble Lord would say despite sanctions, but the historical causation is there. We notice in

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the last week or so that Mr. Smith has begun to talk quite a new language about the possibility of concessions on discrimination—the discrimination that he denied ever existed becomes a theme for possible concessions. Is this because of sanctions? I think it is logical to say so.
In any case the noble Lord, Lord Carrington, himself turned his own argument somewhat on its head by ascribing to sanctions the events which have transformed the situation in Mozambique and Angola and which now in turn are affecting the position of the illegal régime in Rhodesia.
LORD CARRINGTON: My Lords, iust for the purposes of Hansard. it was not I.
LORD GORONWY-ROBERTS: My Lords, I am sure if it was not the noble Lord, Lord Carrington, it was the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine. I understand exactly what he was arguing. However, I suggest to him that the form of his argument and the fact of the events that have taken place would even more certainly prove that sanctions have led to the existing situation whereby as an end result the illegal régime stands in very great uncertainty, if not jeopardy.
My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Coleraine, abated not one whit of his rejection of sanctions and stood by his principles. As always we respect him for that. He was joined by other noble Lords whose feelings on this matter we all appreciate and respect. But he said—and I hope that the whole House will hearken to him—that it would not be in the broad interest of Rhodesia or of this country, or of the prospects of solution (and other noble Lords have said the same) if we declined to approve this Order this evening. I am sure that this is right.
There are views and feelings about sanctions; mine are that it is vastly preferable that in differences between or within nations sanctions, rather than force, should be applied. We have all tried force for thousands of years, but this method of persuasion is very new indeed;
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it is hardly more than 20 or 30 years old. It may as yet not be wholly effective, but the time will come when it will be usual and natural for the comity of nations to apply this kind of force to recalcitrant members rather than the dreadful sanction of physical war. So in letting this Order pass this evening I am sure it will not do injury to the principles of any noble Lord. I personally and those who agree with me are quite convinced that at this juncture at least we can do no other.
On Question, Motion agreed to.

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