Sitting of 7 February 1973

Preamble
The House met at half-past Two o'clock
PRAYERS
[Mr. SPEAKER in the Chair]
PRIVATE BUSINESS
  DEE AND CLWYD RIVER AUTHORITY BILL (By Order)
  Read a Second time and committed.
  LANGSTONE MARINE BILL (By Order)
  Read a Second time and referred to the Examiners of Petitions for Private Bills.
ORAL ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
  POSTS AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS

    Broadcasting (Programme Content)
    Mr. Riggs-Davisonasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications whether he will introduce legislation to amend Section 3 of the Television Act.
    The Minister of Posts and Telecommunications (Sir John Eden): No, Sir.
    Mr. Biggs-Davison: Did my right hon. Friend hear the Leader of the House on two occasions express our disgust at the ITV interview with Mr. O'Connell of the IRA? Has the IBA expressed any regret at not carrying out its duty under Section 3 of the Television Act? If it is a dead letter, should it not be amended?
    Sir J. Eden: I am sure that the IBA, as well as all hon. Members of this House, will have taken note of the views which were expressed about that particular programme. But, as my hon. Friend knows, that is a matter for the authority.
    Mr. Kilfedder: Will my right hon. Friend tell us how much was paid by ITV to Mr. O'Connell for that interview? Will he persuade ITV to contribute a similar amount to the funds which exist
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    for victims of IRA terrorism, or to the Army, Navy and Airmen's Association, as O'Connell and the men under his command have been guilty of fiendish and terrible murders and mutilations?
    Sir J. Eden: I think that those views should more properly be directed to the chairman of the authority.
    Mr. Whitehead: Is it not a fact that the same programme at a later stage carried interviews with militant Protestants which certainly constituted a balance within the meaning of the Television Act?
    Sir J. Eden: I do not think that that particular programme gave rise to the use of the reserve powers which are available under the Act.
    Mr. Whiteheadasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications if he will now answer Questions asking him to use his powers in relation to the Independent Broadcasting Authority on matters of programme content.
    Mr. Evelyn Kingasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications whether he will now answer Questions relating to programme content of programmes broadcast by the BBC.
    Mr. Stratton Millsasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications whether he will now answer Questions asking him to use his powers under Section 18 of the Television Act in connection with programmes put out by the Independent Broadcasting Authority.
    Mr. John Grantasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications if he will now answer Questions on programme content.
    Mr. Milneasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications whether he will now answer Questions concerning the use of his powers under Section 18 of the Television Act 1964 in connection with programmes broadcast by independent television companies.
    Sir J. Eden: Programmes and their content are the responsibility of the broadcasting authorities. My powers under Clause 13(4) of the BBC's licence and Section 18(3) of the Television Act are reserve powers.
    Mr. Whitehead: Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that that answer gives some cause for relief, as in recent days it has been impossible to see whether it is the courts of law, the IBA or the programme companies who are responsible for the origination of programmes? Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that there is serious cause for concern in a free society at the sequence of events which has led to an individual taking action in the courts, the courts overruling the IBA, the IBA overruling programme companies in the matter of the Poulson documentary, and the programme companies themselves saying that they will exercise some censorship? Is not that an intolerable state of affairs if we are to preserve at least the outline of proper television journalism in a free society?
    Sir J. Eden: I am very much aware that a number of aspects involving programmes are of concern to people in this country and, obviously, are equally of concern to hon. Members. Recent events before the Court of Appeal have reaffirmed both the degree of independence and the degree of responsibility in these matters of the governing authorities in both broadcasting media.
    Mr. King: This is important. Does my right hon. Friend accept this distinction, that while it is probably wrong for him personally to intervene or, indeed, for the courts to intervene in matters of this sort, none the less, unless one accepts that the voice of the BBC is the voice of God—a concept which I am unable to accept—it is right that hon. Members, whether they come from the Right or the Left, and whatever replies they get, should be able to raise these matters on the Floor of the House? Will my right hon. Friend, in his reply, try so to phrase it that nothing he says will inhibit the Table Office from accepting Questions, whatever the answers may be, about programme content?
    Sir J. Eden: What the Table Office chooses to pass for inclusion on the Order Paper is a matter for it. I am well aware, however, that apart from Parliamentary Questions there are probably a number of occasions on which hon. Members have an opportunity, if they choose to take it, to raise matters of the kind to which my hon. Friend referred.
    Mr. Grant: Will the right hon. Gentleman none the less reconsider what he said about the Act? Does he not feel that, as my hon. Friend the Member for Derby, North (Mr. Whitehead) said, there is a case for some clarification here so that we can minimise still further the risk of legal intervention in situations of this kind—despite the fact that the IBA was, broadly speaking, found correct—because the legal profession has become very much a growth industry in this country and we may he able to alleviate that somewhat?
    Sir J. Eden: Before answering his supplementary question I should like to welcome the hon. Gentleman to his new responsibility on the Front Bench opposite and congratulate him on his appointment.
    I think that I should not in exchanges across the Floor of the House at Question Time endeavour to add to the considered judgment of the Court of Appeal, but hon. Members on both sides of the House will have noted that the position and responsibility of the governing body of the BBC and the authority of the IBA have been confirmed in this matter. That is to say, matters of programme content are for them. They have to make the judgment in these cases, and it is not for Ministers to seek to intervene in that. But there are reserve powers, and their extent serves as a constant reminder to the broadcasting authorities that independence and responsibility are two sides of the same coin.
    Mr. Stratton Mills: Is my right hon. Friend aware that Question No. 21 was tabled in the light of the extensive interview with David O'Connell, the IRA leader? Will my right hon. Friend confirm that there was a clear understanding by both the BBC and the ITV, following pressure in this House about two years ago, that they would not show on the media individuals who were rationalising and justifying the theory and practice of violence and shooting troops within the United Kingdom? If that is true, will my right hon. Friend inquire why that understanding was not observed on this occasion, and perhaps consider whether a proper code should be drawn up on this matter about which there is strong feeling?
    Sir J. Eden: I recognise the strength of feeling on these matters, and I know

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    that that has already been brought to the attention of the IBA.
    Mr. Milne: Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that there is something faintly ridiculous in the idea of the IBA banning a film about which widespread information has been given, and the contents of which have been made known through the Press, radio and television? Will the right hon. Gentleman look into the question of the powers of the IBA in this respect and ensure that when members of the IBA have an interest to declare they do so? In making future appointments, will the right hon. Gentleman see that the members are drawn from a much less restricted section of the community than they are now?
    Sir J. Eden: Members of the authority are drawn from as wide a cross-section of society and opinion as is possible with a limited body of that size. I take all these matters into account when making any fresh appointments as vacancies occur. As to the decision to which the hon. Gentleman referred, this was a matter properly within the responsibility of the authority.
    Sir G. Nabarro: Does not my right hon. Friend admit that the Statutes which govern television and radio broadcasting are riddled with inconsistencies, and that the time is long overdue for their reform, notably the elimination of the word "offensive", as it is the failure to define what is and what is not offensive that is the principal cause of widespread trouble?
    Sir J. Eden: My hon. Friend highlights one of the difficulties of operating this system, in that one must rest upon the collective judgment of a group of individuals. If there were a different group of individuals a different judgment might be arrived at, but Parliament has placed responsibility clearly with those who have been appointed members of the authority.
    Mr. Arthur Davidson: Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that one of the greatest dangers of all—far greater than the risk that certain members of the public might be a bit offended or shocked by something—is the danger of censorship, and that a greater danger than imposed censorship by an outside body is self-imposed censorship, where people in positions of authority have pressure put on
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    them from outside by people who are themselves powerful and bend to that pressure? If that happens the public suffer because they are not informed on matters about which they ought to be properly informed.
    Sir J. Eden: It is not a question of censorship as regards members of the authority, although there was a recent example of many programmes being blacked out by wholly arbitrary action on the part of one sector of the community.
    What these questions are primarily con-concerned with is the exercising by the authority collectively of the responsibility which Parliament has given it in that matter. It must be free to determine whether a particular programme should be shown.
    Mr. Biggs-Davison: Is not one reason for the self-censorship to which the hon. Gentleman refers a lack of clarity? Is my right hon. Friend satisfied that it is good enough to allow the IBA to be the sole interpreter of what is offensive and what incites to crime?
    Sir J. Eden: A short answer to my hon. Friend's question is "Yes". It was the considered decision of this House to place this responsibility in the hands of those people. The alternatives, which hon. Members may like to consider, could be just as difficult to operate. It would not be very satisfactory, for example, to have Ministers of the Crown taking over the responsibilities of an independent group of people of this kind.
    Mr. Hugh Jenkins: Does the Minister agree that whatever form of words was adopted it would be improbable that the IBA would ever be able to exercise its powers in a manner which was acceptable to all hon. Members? Having said that, is it not quite intolerable that a judge or anyone else should seek to deprive hon. Members and the public of their right to switch off Mr. Andy Warhol and to refuse to see him for themselves?
    Sir J. Eden: That matter was fully considered by the courts. It is not a matter for me.
    Mr. Milne: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. In view of the unsatisfactory nature of the replies, I beg to give notice that I shall seek an early opportunity of raising the matter on the Adjournment.

    Satellite Communications
    Dr. Stuttafordasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications if he is satisfied that there is adequate consulation between his Department and the Post Office on the subject of satellite communications.
    Sir J. Eden: Yes, Sir.
    Dr. Stuttaford: Does my right hon. Friend agree that the decision to adopt Intelsat V as a replacement for Intelsat IV is a major national policy decision and that he cannot shrug off the responsibility in this casual way, as he did today and when he replied to the hon. Member for Shoreditch and Finsbury (Mr. Ronald Brown) on Monday?
    Sir J. Eden: I understand that Intelsat has selected a new generation of satellites which will have about twice the capacity of the present generation. The Questions from the hon. Member for Shoreditch and Finsbury (Mr. Ronald Brown) related to operational matters which are the responsibility of an international committee of operators of which the Post Office, not Her Majesty's Government, is a member. That is why I asked the Post Office in this instance to write to the hon. Member.
    Mr. Warren: With respect to my right hon. Friend, I suggest that he is perhaps referring to a decision which has been made on Intelsat IVA, whereas it is in fact Intelsat V which is the pressing demand now. If there is no agreement on it during this calendar year there will be an irrevocable breakdown in the communications network between this country and the rest of the world.
    Sir J. Eden: I will look further into that last point. Up to this time I am satisfied that the traffic requirements are to be fully met. My hon. Friend is right in saying that the decision has been taken in favour of Intelsat IVA, but this will allow further development in communications to take place and will be instrumental in buying time before later consideration is given to subsequent developments.
    Mr. Gregor Mackenzie: Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that this is a very complex subject for all hon. Members?
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    In view of the importance that this decision will assume in future, is it possible for him to give the House some guidance—perhaps a paper might be published—rather than the sort of answer he gave in reply to the series of Questions put down on Monday by my hon. Friend the Member for Shoreditch and Finsbury (Mr. Ronald Brown)?
    Sir J. Eden: If there is a way open to me to give the House any further information that it requires on the matter I shall certainly do so. However, hon. Members will have in mind that the Post Office is the operational expert and is therefore responsible, as the United Kingdom representative on Intelsat, to consult Government Departments about the wider national interests.

    British Broadcasting Corporation (Co-production Contracts)
    Mr. Kaufmanasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications if he will use his powers under the BBC Charter to prevent the BBC from transmitting commercially sponsored broadcasts.
    Sir J. Eden: No. Clause 12 of the BBC's Licence and Agreement forbids sponsored programmes.
    Mr. Kaufman: Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that the current BBC 2 television series "Web of Life" is based on an idea put forward by British Petroleum, was made under contract with British Petroleum, had half its production costs paid by British Petroleum, which also paid the salaries of the BBC staff involved, and was hawked around the country by British Petroleum as a public relations exercise months before it was shown on BBC television?
    As this is a direct and scandalous breach of the BBC's Licence and Agreement, on which the Minister himself has power to impose sanctions, what will he do about it?
    Sir J. Eden: Since that programme was made the BBC has itself fully taken into account the concern which has been expressed on a previous occasion in the House and has changed its rules for co-production contracts.
    Mr. Gorst: Within the context of the BBC's natural desire to save money, has my right hon. Friend noted the report

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    of the Director-General's speech in which he declared that by 1975 the BBC will be £15 million in deficit? Will my right hon. Friend give an assurance that viewers will not be further hammered by an increase in licence fees, within the life of the present Parliament at least, or, alternatively, will he say whether he will consider ways in which he can curtail the over-extension of the BBC's existing activities?
    Sir J. Eden: The matter of the report of the speech is another question.

    Christmas Mail
    Mr. Ewingasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications if he will publish the report submitted to him by the Chairman of the Post Office Board regarding the delivery of Christmas mail.
    Mrs. Castleasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications if he will publish the report he has received from the Post Office Board on the delays in the delivery of Christmas mail.
    Mr. Huntasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications if he will arrange for a copy of the report presented to him by the Chairman of the Post Office on the Christmas mail delays to be placed in the Library of the House of Commons.
    Sir J. Eden: I have nothing to add to the reply I gave to the hon. Member for Manchester, Openshaw (Mr. Charles R. Morris) on 29th January.—[Vol. 849, c. 296.]
    Mr. Ewing: Will the Minister confirm that the staff employed by the Post Office are in no way to blame for the fiasco which occurred over Christmas? Is the Minister aware that an agreement was concluded between the Union of Post Office Workers and the Post Office Board that no Christmas Eve deliveries would be made, and that that agreement was concluded well in advance of Christmas and gave the chairman and the board ample opportunity to make the necessary arrangements to ensure that the mail deliveries took place in an even flow, without any obstacle being placed in their way? Would not the Minister agree that this was a gross case of bad mismanagement, and will he make a statement about it?
    Sir J. Eden: I do not think that it would be helpful to add to the very full statement which was made by the Chairman of the Post Office Corporation, in which he accepted full responsibility.
    Mrs. Castle: What has the right hon. Gentleman to hide in refusing to publish the report? Is he afraid that it will show that the administrative shambles at Christmas was the direct result of the economies which are being imposed on the Post Office and of the financial desperation it feels following the Government's policies towards nationalised industries of starving them of resources? When will the Minister be as big a man as Sir William Ryland and admit his share of responsibility for this mess? Will he give an assurance that the £60 million deficit in the Post Office which he has forecast for this year will be met by a Government grant and will not mean that we shall have a 5p stamp imposed on us as soon as the freeze ends?
    Sir J. Eden: The right hon. Lady is both exaggerating and distorting the whole of this matter. She knows that on 5th January a very full statement was made by the Chairman of the Post Office Corporation, following an urgent examination of the reasons for the fiasco which took place with the Christmas mail. I do not think that it would be in anyone's interest at this stage to add to that, but I assure all hon. Members that the Post Office is determined to see that this situation is not repeated and that I am also keeping closely in touch with the Post Office to see that improvements are made in time for next year.
    Mr. Hunt: Acknowledging Sir William Ryland's commendably full and frank apology for the Christmas delays, can my right hon. Friend think of any chairman of a private company who, having presided over such a shambles, would still be in his job today? If we cannot see the report, can we at least be given some indication of when the major administrative shake-up in the Post Office, which we have been promised, will be implemented?
    Sir J. Eden: If there had been an attempt to try to belittle the difficulties which had clearly arisen it would have presented me with a different situation. But there is considerable value in having

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    someone remaining in office who has so readily shown himself determined to avoid a repetition of these events. In order to assist him to do that he has initiated a number of studies within the Post Office organisation, which I am certain will yield benefit.
    Mr. Gregor Mackenzie: Is the Minister aware that, while we appreciate the statement which was made by the Chairman of the Post Office Corporation, we are very concerned that this should not occur again? The Minister will concede that we all noticed that fewer vans were being hired by the Post Office, less casual labour, and fewer halls opened. This was conditioned by the fact that there was an over-zealousness, perhaps, on the part of some members of the management in order to economise. This desire for economy is conditioned by the fear of an overall deficit in the Post Office. Notwithstanding the Post Office Bill and the write-off of £196 million, will the right hon. Gentleman take on board the point I made on Second Reading of the Post Office (Borrowing) Bill about some kind of grant in order to cover this prospect in the future?
    Sir J. Eden: The Chairman of the Post Office Corporation himself recognised that there was a very fine balance between the need for economy of operation and the need to maintain the best possible standard of service. But, as the hon. Gentleman has very fairly reminded the House, an Act has recently been passed which has written off a substantial amount of the Post Office's accumulated deficit.

    Television Licence Fee (Pensioners)
    Mr. Charles R. Morrisasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications whether he will make a statement indicating when he hones to complete his review of the Government's policy in respect of concessionary television licences for the elderly.
    Sir G. Nabarroasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications, having regard to representations from the Malvern Old Peoples Welfare Committee, a copy of which has been sent to him, whether he will introduce a flat rate broadcasting licence fee, confined to a maximum of £2.00 per annum for every senior
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    citizen, producing retirement pensioner documents; and what would be the annual cost in terms of revenue lost, accounted from 1st April 1973.
    Mr. David Clarkasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications if he is now able to make a statement on his review of television licence concessions for retirement pensioners.
    Sir J. Eden: The cost of a £2 licence for all pensioners would be about £20 million a year. After the most careful consideration I have come to the conclusion that it would be wrong to allow licence concessions for pensioners. There is no way of extending the scope of the present special licence for old people's homes without creating other anomalies.
    Mr. Morris: Will the Minister accept that the statement he has just made will be greeted with dismay among not only the nation's elderly but also among reasonable people in every section of the community? Will he accept that to elderly people particularly television is a great aid in combating the serious problem of community living—the problem of loneliness? Will he initiate a public referendum on this question? I am convinced that the result would be that the nation would demand that this concession be provided.
    Sir J. Eden: Of course I recognise that the decision I have announced will bring disappointment to many people. I regret that that should be so. I had to take into account the effect on other categories of making a change of this kind. Having considered that very thoroughly, I concluded that it was right that we should continue to look after the needs of retired people through the means of the social security system and that that is the best way to do it.
    Sir G. Nabarro: I am on record over many years as refusing every kind of special emolument for pensioners, including radio and television concessions, but inflation has made this position vastly worse. Is my right hon. Friend aware that the cost of broadcasting licences for the elderly ranks as such a large part of their individual income that these people merit special help at the expense of the rest of the community? Why does not my right hon. Friend evolve a scheme for

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    increasing the cost of the licence by perhaps £2 a year over the whole field, to give the elderly a special concession of the kind I have described and reduce their contribution to only £2 a year?
    Sir J. Eden: Because regard must be had to the position of those who are not old-age pensioners but may be in as difficult circumstances as an elderly person. Many young couples cannot afford a television set, let alone the licence.
    Mr. Clark: Does the Minister realise that the trends of modern life are working against old people, especially the curtailment of bus services and the increasing cost of entertainment other than television, due to be increased with the introduction of VAT? Will he not think about this matter just once more? Does not he recognise that most people think that the Government's refusal to grant a concession which would cost £20 million is meanness compared with the total Government expenditure?
    Sir J. Eden: I am of course aware of the points to which the hon. Gentleman refers. It was because of these various points that I went into the matter as thoroughly as I did. This is a decision which has been inherited by this Government. The creation of this anomaly arose out of the establishment of the special licence scheme for certain old people's homes. The question to which I have been addressing my mind is whether, in trying to get out of the anomalies that this situation has created, there are not worse ones in other directions. I have concluded that there are, and that the best way to proceed in helping all elderly people is through the social security system.
    Mr. Tom King: If it is possible to give any help or benefit in kind in this form, will my right hon. Friend note the view that it should not be confined to old-age pensioners with television sets? There are many people in my constituency who are not in possession of a television set or who cannot receive television because of reception difficulties. Any benefit should be spread widely throughout all old-age pensioners and not confined to one group.
    Sir J. Eden: My hon. Friend is right to highlight some of the difficulties of
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    making a move in the direction hon. Members have pressed on me.
    Mr. David Steel: Will the Minister take account of the representations received from representatives of all parties? Is he aware that his analogy with other deserving people who cannot afford sets is inaccurate? We are concerned with a distinct category many of whom depend greatly on television as a regular part of their daily life, and it is these people we want to help.
    Sir J. Eden: I have taken account of all the views which have been represented to me.
    Mr. Gregor Mackenzie: We all appreciate the difficulties involved in making any concession. We also appreciate the interests of the various groups concerned. Reverting to the point made by my hon. Friend the Member for Manchester, Openshaw (Mr. Charles R. Morris) about a referendum, there is no doubt that if there were a referendum amongst the Members of the House of Commons there would be strong pressure on the Minister to make a concession of this kind. This should be done in the short term, because people need this badly. If the Minister finds it all that difficult, perhaps he should look at the whole structure and financing of the BBC and at the position of the licence fee within that structure.
    Sir J. Eden: I take note of the hon. Gentleman's last point, which raises much wider issues.
    Mr. Edward Taylorasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications what organisations he consulted in the course of his review of Government policy regarding the granting of television licence concessions to the elderly.
    Sir J. Eden: None. But in reaching a decision I have taken into account the views expressed to me by the National Federation of Old-age Pensions Associations.
    Mr. Taylor: Now that the Minister has decided that it would not be practicable to make concessions for pensioners, will he consider as an alternative recommending to the Chancellor of the Exchequer that in his forthcoming Budget he should announce the abolition of the black-and-white television licence? Since

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    90 per cent. of all households in Britain have such a licence, has it not become a kind of poll tax, and would it not help administration, remove anomalies and save a great deal of money if it were abolished, and if the sums were raised by general taxation?
    Sir J. Eden: My hon. Friend is raising the wider question of the way in which the revenue of the BBC shall be secured.
    Mr. Skinner: In his review, why did not the Minister consult other organisations, apart from the old-age pensioners? Why did he not consult the Reform Club, where several hundred people may watch television for the payment of one licence fee, or, perhaps, the Serjeant at Arms, since 630 Members of Parliament may watch television for the payment of one licence fee? If they can get it for the payment of one fee, why should not 8 million old-age pensioners get it at the same rate?
    Sir J. Eden: Those old-age pensioners who are resident in homes which qualify——
    Mr. Skinner: I know all that.
    Sir J. Eden: —for registration for this purpose certainly get the 5p licence.

    Independent Broadcasting Authority (Report)
    Mr. Dormandasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications what representations he has now received regarding the implementation of any of the recommendations contained in the Report of the Select Committee on Nationalised Industries on the Independent Broadcasting Authority.
    Sir J. Eden: I have studied many people's views, for example, those of people in the programme companies, Sir Hugh Greene, the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising, and the hon. Member for Derby, North (Mr. Whitehead), as well as those of the Independent Broadcasting Authority.
    Mr. Dormand: Is the Minister aware that the Select Committee made 30 recommendations, 29 of which are overshadowed by that relating to the setting up at the earliest opportunity of a full-ranging inquiry into broadcasting after
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    1976? Amongst those 29 recommendations are there not some very important ones which should be considered carefully and which, if implemented, would, among other things, prevent a recurrence of the Warhol affair and of many matters which have been referred to this afternoon? Will the Minister press the Leader of the House for an urgent debate on this important matter?
    Sir J. Eden: Yes, I am aware of the importance of these matters, particularly of the recommendation to which the hon. Gentleman draws attention. As regards the possibility of a debate, I am sure that the hon. Gentleman would wish to await the reply by the Government to the Select Committee.
    Mr. Crouch: I do not think that the House should wait so much longer. There is a growing practice for the House to ignore Select Committee reports. As a member of this Select Committee I cannot help feeling that public opinion is already beginning to form a view about the IBA, and it would have greatly helped public opinion if there had been a debate in the House about the Select Committee's report.
    Sir J. Eden: The fact that it has taken a little time to bring forward the Government's reply to this report from the Select Committee is due not to the Government's ignoring it but to the depth of the consideration the Government have given it.

    Exchange Equipment
    Mr. Goldingasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications when a decision on the development of TXE4 will be made.
    Sir J. Eden: The Post Office proposals have just been received. These will now be fully considered in all their aspects by the Government. I hope to be able to announce the decision in the course of the next two months.
    Mr. Golding: Is the Minister aware that this decision is required as quickly as possible? It is important that obsolescent equipment be not ordered when more modern equipment could be ordered instead.
    Sir J. Eden: I am aware of that. I will ensure that the examination processes are carried through as rapidly as possible, but this is also a very important decision for the future of our exchange equipment.

    STD Calls
    Mr. Hardyasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications if he will give the latest figure for successful first time connection in the STD system.
    Sir J. Eden: The most recent published statistics are those contained in the latest Post Office Report and Accounts.
    Mr. Hardy: Is the Minister aware that it is becoming increasingly difficult to get through to Yorkshire from London on the first, second, or even third attempt? Does he agree that the difficulty appears to lie in the London exchanges rather than in Yorkshire, where the service seems to be generally commendable?
    Sir J. Eden: I will draw the attention of the Post Office to the points the hon. Gentleman has made. I assure him that the Post Office is providing more lines and equipment, and also improving maintenance generally, in an attempt to combat congestion and plant failures. Further improvement in the quality of services will depend largely on the future modernisation of the telephone system.
    Mr. William Price: Is the Minister aware that with these strange little boxes that have been installed all over the House it is difficult to get through to anywhere? [Interruption.] Will the Minister have a word with the Post Office and suggest that it conducts its experiments elsewhere? [Interruption.]
    Sir J. Eden: There does not seem to be universal agreement with the hon. Gentleman's view.
    Mr. David Steelasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications if he will now give the date for the start this spring of BBC2 and colour television transmissions in the Borders.
    Sir J. Eden: The BBC tells me that it is still too early to say when transmissions of BBC1 and BBC2 in colour will start from Selkirk.
    Mr. Steel: Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that spring in the Borders is almost upon us? May we be given a date fairly soon?
    Sir J. Eden: Weather conditions can change, the freeze may set in, and spring may yet be a little late this year, but I am sure that the BBC will take note of the hon. Gentleman's anxiety. The BBC is doing its best to press ahead with this matter and it will be in a position to give a firm date a few weeks before it is ready to start operations, but it will have to wait until then before coming forward with a fixed target.
    Mr. Scott-Hopkins: Does my right hon. Friend agree that it is absolutely monstrous that not only Border constituencies but many other places in the United Kingdom are deprived of BBC2? Is he aware that in 1973 many of my constituents will not have the pleasure of receiving BBC2 on 625-lines transmission? Will my right hon. Friend see that more Government money, time and energy are devoted to this?
    Sir J. Eden: I am aware of the difficulties of constituents to which my hon. Friend has drawn my attention on this and a number of previous occasions. He will know that the programme for this development over the whole country is being pressed ahead as rapidly as possible.
    Mr. Lipton: Are there not a number of people who are grateful for the fact that they cannot receive BBC2?
    Sir J. Eden: I have not met them yet.
    Mr. Marten: On the more general question of television transmission in the difficult areas, such as the Welsh valleys and the Scottish mountains, have the Government abandoned study into putting up a geostationary satellite for our national use?
    Sir J. Eden: It is not a question of abandoning study—certainly not. The relevance to the immediate requirements of such a station is unlikely to be very marked while this further programme is being proceeded with at the present time. As my hon. Friend will have seen, the report of the Television Advisory Committee indicated that there was unlikely to be a rapid development on the satellite front in the next few years.

    British Broadcasting Corporation (Chairman)
    Mr. Hugh Jenkinsasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications whether in making the recent appointment of Chairman of the BBC he consulted the views of the governors of the corporation.
    Sir J. Eden: It is not customary to reveal what consultations have taken place before appointments are made.
    Mr. Jenkins: Does not the right hon. Gentleman agree that it has been customary in the past to consult the governors on the question of appointments? Is he not prepared to say that on this occasion he followed the previous practice?
    Sir J. Eden: No, I am not prepared to add to what I have said in reply to the Question.
    Mr. Stratton Mills: Would it not be appropriate to wish the chairman well in his difficult job?
    Sir J. Eden: I am sure the new chairman will be grateful for that observation.

    Telephones (Waiting List)
    Mr. William Priceasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications how many people are at present waiting for the installation of a telephone.
    Sir J. Eden: 202,000 at the end of December.
    Mr. Price: Will the right hon. Gentleman explain to the Post Office that nothing irritates people more than advertisements urging them to use the telephone when, in fact, they cannot get one? Will he explain, further, that there is a simple answer, namely to localise its efforts to areas where capacity is available?
    Sir J. Eden: The Post Office is aware of the irritation caused to people when they are on the waiting list for any length of time. This is why the Post Office is concentrating as much as possible on a substantial investment programme for the provision of new exchange facilities.
    Mr. Gorst: Is my right hon. Friend aware that for the last 10 or more years the consumers have been offered
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    "jam tomorrow", but that we have not got that "jam tomorrow" today; we have got nothing but congestion and jam, and it would be a great encouragement to consumers if they had something more tangible to which they could look forward in the near future, in terms of an improved telephone service?
    Sir J. Eden: The encouragement which my hon. Friend seeks should come from the fact that the numbers on the waiting list show a welcome downward trend, and although it is far too early to read anything much into these figures, I can assure my hon. Friend that in the industry, the Post Office and Government Departments there is a concerted drive.
    Mr. James Hamilton: Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that the reason for this shortage is the fact that the equipment is not coming forward quickly enough? Will he raise this point with the Department of Trade and Industry and ask it to take cognisance of the point of which many of us on this side of the House are aware, namely, that many empty factories in our constituencies could easily produce this equipment?
    Sir J. Eden: I wish the hon. Gentleman would look back to the many previous Questions and Answers that have been exchanged on this whole subject and take note of the fact that a very deliberate effort is being made by the three parties concerned in the building of the exchanges, the provision of the equipment and the planning of the system to ensure that the backlog is overcome and the increased demand is met as efficiently as possible.
    Mr. Lawsonasked the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications how many months it takes normally to provide an applicant with a telephone number in those cases where the telephone is already installed and believed to be operative.
    Sir J. Eden: The Post Office tells me that this depends on the available capacity at the exchange concerned.
    Mr. Lawson: Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that there is an example of someone waiting for nearly a year to get a telephone number? Is this not an astonishing deficiency on the part of the Post Office? Is the right hon. Gentleman further aware that in my constituency

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    applicants have been waiting for nearly four years for the installation of a telephone? Are he and the Government without any kind of influence whatsoever on the Post Office?
    Sir J. Eden: The hon. Gentleman knows that in 1969 the previous Government passed an Act which created a separate corporation out of the Post Office, which was then a Department of Government. Having done that in that Act, certain responsibilities were placed squarely in the hands of the Chairman and Board of the Post Office Corporation and certain statutory duties were left with the Minister who became the Minister of Posts and Telecommunications. The hon. Gentleman should direct his question to the Chairman of the Post Office Corporation.
    Mr. Tom King: To put the matter into perspective, would I be right in believing that the number of telephones installed in the past year by the Post Office is an all-time record in this country? Is not the fact that waiting lists are so long indicative of the rising standard of living and the greater demand for telephones?
    Sir J. Eden: It is certainly indicative of the substantially increased demand for telephones and the fact that arising out of decisions taken many years ago we have exchange equipment which is incapable of coping with that demand. Therefore, the prospect for improvement in the future rests very much with the decission, which is shortly to be taken, on new exchange equipment.

    First-Class Mail
    Mr. Tilneyasked the Minister of Posts and Communications what percentage of first-class official paid mail fails to reach its destination in Great Britain on the following day.
    Sir J. Eden: The Post Office tells me that its quality of service checks do not differentiate between official paid and other first-class mail.
    Mr. Tilney: Is it not a fact that business in provincial cities and that of hon. Members with their constituents is damaged for the same reason? Is it not time that my right hon. Friend considered whether there should be only one type of post?
    Sir J. Eden: As my hon. Friend knows, there has for some time been a two-tier system. He may also be aware that about 92 per cent. of first-class letters are delivered by the next working day after posting. The Post Office is always doing its best to try to improve on this. One way in which it is going about this at present is to seek out the bad or black areas where particular weaknesses have been exposed in order to try to concentrate on improvement in those areas.
    Mr. Heffer: While accepting that there are sometimes delays with first-class mail, may I ask the right hon. Gentleman whether he is also aware that in some places second-class mail could be delivered the next morning but that postmen are told not to deliver it because of this rather stupid system of having two different types of mail?
    Sir J. Eden: No, I do not believe that is the case. Similar questions have been put to me before. So far as I am able to find out, no such instructions have been given to postmen.

  ENVIRONMENT

    Regents Canal (City Basin)
    Mr. George Cunninghamasked the Secretary of State for the Environment whether he will make available the good offices of his Department to investigate all options for the future use of the City Basin of the Regents Canal, as proposed to him by the leader of Islington Council and the hon. Member for Islington, South-West.
    The Under-Secretary of State for the Environment (Mr. Eldon Griffiths): Officials of the Department have discussed this proposal with the town clerk and senior officers of the council. I shall shortly be writing to the leader of the council and the hon. Member.
    Mr. Cunningham: Does the Minister understand that a satisfactory solution to this problem cannot be found unless the gas hoard and, perhaps, one or two other undertakers are involved, and they cannot be pulled in by the Islington council? Since I believe that it is now six months since I raised this matter with him first, and two or three months since the leader of the council wrote to him asking him

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    to make his good offices available, will the hon. Gentleman quickly come to a decision, and an affirmative decision at that?
    Mr. Griffiths: The hon. Gentleman, who has been very patient and reasonable in his approach on this matter, knows that a great number of different authorities with different desires are involved. There is the local authority concerned with housing, there are the statutory undertakers, and there are the amenity considerations. I can only repeat that my Department has had conversations with the local authority, and I shall shortly be writing to it.

    Rating Revaluation
    Mr. David Clarkasked the Secretary of State for the Environment what is his estimate of the numbers and proportion of ratepayers facing higher rates on 1st April as a direct result of revaluation of property.
    Mr. Eldon Griffiths: I would refer the hon. Member to the reply given to a similar Question from the hon. Member for Heywood and Royton (Mr. Joel Barnett) on 23rd January 1973.—[Vol. 849, c. 95.]
    Mr. Clark: I regret that the Minister will not give his estimate of the number of people involved, but will he take it that in my constituency—I have no reason to think that it is exceptional—in two districts where £60,000 in rate support grant will be lost, the rate will have to go up roughly 12p in the £ just as a result of revaluation? At this time of freeze, when wages are frozen, will he postpone the operation of the revaluation?
    Mr. Griffiths: The hon. Gentleman has taken part in debates on this matter, and he knows that the whole process of revaluation is fair as between one ratepayer and another. He has quite properly made the point on behalf of his own authority, but he will know that in the rate support grant settlement the Government have provided more assistance to local authorities than ever before, and have also provided greater help to the domestic ratepayer.
    Mr. Scott-Hopkins: I am not sure that it is all that fair as between one ratepayer and another. Will my hon. Friend bear
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    in mind—I have written to him about it—that in part of my constituency, in the Matlock area, for instance, the domestic ratepayer is liable to face a 20 per cent. increase because of the change of rate percentage under the new revaluation? Will he look into this matter again, which is causing grave concern to many people, including myself?
    Mr. Griffiths: I am well aware of the views not only of my hon. Friend but of many hon. Members. If revaluation is postponed, as it was by the Labour Party for 10 years, when it takes place there will inveitably be changes which cause people to be concerned. I can only repeat that the Government have arranged to provide local authorities with much more support than ever before, and have increased the domestic element from 10p to 15p—a 50 per cent. increase.
    Mr. Cant: Does the hon. Gentleman realise that there is a growing feeling of crisis in the treasuries of many of our cities and towns which is not relieved by his sending out a circular stating that rate increases will be monitored? What city treasurers need is not the monitoring of rate increases but substantial financial help, in view of the prospect that many rates will go up between 20 per cent. and 30 per cent., which is intolerable.
    Mr. Griffiths: I am sorry that the hon. Gentleman, for whom I have great respect in this matter, should take a less responsible view than that taken by the local authority associations, which have agreed with the Government that they will play their part in trying to make the counter-inflation strategy a success. I believe that the Government can reasonably look to local authorities to seek to contain expenditure which is not necessary in the circumstances.
    Dame Irene Ward: Will my hon. Friend bear in mind that the correspondence which has passed between the local authority associations and his Department is not known to the ordinary individual, and will he please take it from me that what is wanted is that the ordinary individual, who will be suddenly faced with a very real problem, should have clear in mind exactly what is being done, as well as the responsibility to which my hon. Friend rightly referred arising from the behaviour of the Opposition when in Government?
    Mr. Griffiths: I agree that it is necessary for the public at large to understand what has been done and why revaluation has taken place. I can think of no one better equipped than my hon. Friend herself to make these matters known in her constituency.
    Mr. Denis Howell: The Under-Secretary's answers today are both disappointing and irrelevant to the situation faced by a large number of authorities, particularly those in the major cities—a deputation from which is to see the Prime Minister this week—which face rises of 20 per cent. or 30 per cent. for domestic ratepayers because of the revaluation, without taking into account increases due to inflation or expansion. A short time ago, the Minister for Local Government and Development said that the Government would give some help to these authorities which, in the middle of a wage freeze, now face impossible demands upon their ratepayers. Will the hon. Gentleman confirm whether the Government will act to help these authorities which are worst hit as a result of revaluation?
    Mr. Scott-Hopkins: And the domestic ratepayer.
    Mr. Griffiths: The hon. Gentleman knows that during the discussions between the local authority associations and my Department the inflationary aspects were taken into account and were agreed by the local authorities to have been taken into account. So let us put that aside. The hon. Gentleman now asks that some undertaking be given that differential help might be afforded to some of the authorities which, as a result of the revaluation, find themselves in a difficult situation. I think that he must await the decisions of my right hon and learned Friend on this matter. The hon. Gentleman also referred to discussions which will be taking place between some of the large authorities and my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister. I am sure that my right hon. Friend is well aware of the problems and is considering them.

  CIVIL SERVICE

    Waste Paper Disposal
    Mr. Dormandasked the Minister for the Civil Service whether he is satis-
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    fied with the work undertaken by his Department in the disposal of Government waste paper.
    The Parliamentary Secretary to the Civil Service Department (Mr. Kenneth Baker): The disposal of waste paper is the responsibility of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. The arrangements made for this purpose are satisfactory.
    Mr. Dormand: Is it not astonishing, and even scandalous, that a contractor is allowed two days between collecting waste paper from a depot and having to declare the weight to Her Majesty's Stationery Office? Is not the system wide open to abuse, and is the hon. Gentleman aware that several firms, including one in my constituency, are placed at a distinct disadvantage by this most unsatisfactory system?
    Mr. Baker: The hon. Gentleman has been in correspondence with me on this case. I have asked the security officers of the Stationery Office to look into it, and they have reported back that they are satisfied that there could be no discrepancy as a result of the lorry leaving the warehouse and later arriving at the weighbridge. However, I shall be pleased to meet the hon. Gentleman and representatives of his firm to discuss the matter further if he wishes.
    Mr. Kenneth Lewis: Does my hon. Friend realise that the best way to do away with waste paper problems is to cut down the amount of paper that is sent about by Government Departments and reduce the amount of form filling and the like?
    Mr. Baker: In the last two years we have substantially reduced the number of forms and simplified many of those which remain. I remind the House that the business to which the Question refers is quite big business. The Government benefit to the extent of nearly £180,000 a year from disposing of waste paper.

    QUESTIONS TO MINISTERS
    Mr. Arthur Lewis: On a point of order. May I first apologise to you, Mr. Speaker, for the fact that I have not been able to give you prior notice of my point of order. I have been away from the House on parliamentary business and

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    have not had an opportunity of approaching you. On Monday I tabled a Question which was accepted by the Table Office and which was placed on the Order Paper. I quote from page 2827 of the Votes and Proceedings of 5th February, Question No. 108, set down for expedited Written Reply, in which I
    "ask the Prime Minister to what extent public money is being spent, and civil servants' time being occupied, in inquiring into the leak to the Press about his recent medical check-up."
    Late last evening I received a note from the Table Office saying that it had withdrawn the Question because it felt that it was not in order, and on that I made no adverse comment. I was surprised that it had been accepted and then withdrawn but of course I accepted the assurance of the Table Office that it had done it and that the Prime Minister's Office was not involved. When I received today's Votes and Proceedings I saw on page 2877 a list of Questions withdrawn but no notice was given that my Question had been withdrawn. I went to the Table Office and was told that the Question would not be shown as having been withdrawn, although it had been withdrawn, because the Table Office had made a mistake originally in accepting it.
    My point of order relates to the general question and not to the particular. If a situation arose in which a Question was accepted as being in order, was placed upon the Order Paper, and was thereby accepted, would it be in order for the Table Office—of course without pressure from the Prime Minister's Office; that I accept—to withdraw it and to notify the hon. Member but for that Question not to be shown to have been withdrawn in the next issue of the Votes and Proceedings?
    We all know that if a Question is withdrawn from the Order Paper it is usually withdrawn by an hon. Member who gives notice of the withdrawal. I am not concerned here with whether there was or was not a Press leak or whether civil servants' time was or was not expended. May I conclude—[HON. MEMBERS: "Hear, hear."]—by saying that I do not expect you to give a reply on the spur of the moment, Mr. Speaker, but will you consider the matter and perhaps give a considered reply at your leisure?
    Mr. Speaker: I will consider what the hon. Member said and, if necessary, rule upon it.
    Sir G. Nabarro: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. Some weeks ago I complained about the impossible position in which we were placed when questioning the Minister for the bureaucracy and as a result of your sympathy his position on the Order Paper was advanced from Question No. 40 to Question No. 30 as the commencing point. The situation today has demonstrated that starting at Question No. 30 is no good either, and we are—
    Mr. Speaker: Order. May I help the hon. Member? This matter has been taken into account and next time Questions to the Minister will commence at 3.10 p.m., thus meeting the point.
    Sir G. Nabarro: I am very much obliged.
    Mr. Lipton: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. You have already ruled that Questions to the Attorney-General will be taken not later than 3.20 p.m. You have now also ruled that the same situation will apply to Questions to the Minister for the Civil Service. Can that same principle be extended to one or two other Ministers whom we find it very difficult to reach?
    Mr. Speaker: Order. The hon. Member said that I had so ruled. I have not ruled. This is a matter for arrangement between those who govern the affairs of the House much more than I do when considering the order of business of the House and Questions. It has nothing to do with me, but, in my view, the new arrangement is for the convenience of the House.

BILL PRESENTED
  SEA FISHERIES (SHELLFISH) ACT 1967 (AMENDMENT)
  Mr. Ray Mawby, supported by Mr. Charles Morrison and Mr. Mark Woodnutt, presented a Bill to amend the Sea Fisheries (Shellfish) Act 1967: And the same was read the First time; and ordered to be read a Second time upon Friday 23rd February and to be printed [Bill 64].

COMPENSATION PAYMENTS BY COMPANIES, ETC. BILL
3.38 p.m.
Mr. Charles Simeons: I beg to move,
That leave be given to bring in a Bill to amend the law in regard to compensation payments in relation to actions for damages.
The House will be aware of the difficulties in these matters. There are restrictive clauses in insurance policies and also there is a great time lag before legal cases reach the courts. Considerable hardship exists because the insured is prevented from offering limited help to the injured person. There is growing evidence of exasperation. We regularly see people pleading not guilty in magistrates' courts because they are worried about their insurance cover. I appreciate the position of insurance companies and their responsibility to the other policy holders and to pension funds.
This matter arose because one of my constituents, Mrs. Edith Chamberlain, was riding in a bus when it braked heavily. As a result she had 30 stitches in her head. Her husband contacted the United Counties Omnibus Company who passed him on to the Norwich Union. The Norwich Union stated that
"It was necessary for the driver to brake suddenly in order to avoid colliding with a vehicle which had stopped dead.
We regret we are unable to accept liability on behalf of our insured."
The general manager of the United Counties Omnibus Company wrote,
"Whatever view may be taken of the hardship involved in individual cases it cannot be suggested that a bus company has a special responsibility so long as the law remains as it is."
I took that as an invitation to try to get the law altered. The Chairman of the National Bus Company wrote to me saying that he had nothing to add.
I believe that most companies are sympathetic to those who are injured but they are fettered if they wish to help. I have had large numbers of letters from people who have been injured in buses and who have been off work for long periods. My constituent's daughter was off work for a period which cost her £150 in lost wages and she has no chance of getting anything back unless she wins the case.
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My Bill seeks to permit payments to injured parties without prejudice to subsequent proceedings. Such payments as might be made would be deducted from any subsequent damages claimed. Any such action would not be regarded as being in breach of an insurance contract.
Question put and agreed to.
Bill ordered to be brought in by Mr Charles Simeons, Mr. Jack Ashley, Mr. Ellis, Mr. Peter Fry, Mr. David Madel, Mr. Alfred Morris, Mr. Cyril Smith, and Mr. Nicholas Winterton.

COMPENSATION PAYMENTS BY COMPANIES, ETC.
Bill to amend the law regarding compensation payments in relation to actions for damages presented accordingly, and read the First time; to be read a Second time upon Friday 23rd February and to be printed. [Bill 65.]

PUBLIC EXPENDITURE
Mr. Speaker: Before I call the Chief Secretary to the Treasury to move the motion, may I inform the House that I have selected the amendment in the name of the right hon. Member for Huyton (Mr. Harold Wilson) and his right hon. and hon. Friends, in line 1, leave out from 'House' to end, and add:
whilst paying tribute to the work of the Expenditure Committee and its Sub-Committees, condemns the Government's public expenditure policy since 18th June 1970; especially regrets the initial cuts, followed by belated and unplanned increases, which together with its taxation, social and industrial policies have led to the present economic crisis; and further deplores priorities in Command Paper No. 5178 which reduce expenditure on housing whilst increasing that on defence.
3.40 p.m.
The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Mr. Patrick Jenkin): I beg to move,
That this House takes note of the White Paper on Public Expenditure to 1976–77 (Command Paper No. 5178).
I am opening the debate in what is a very thin House, at least on the Opposition benches. I understand that the Opposition intend to divide the House tonight on their amendment, so it is a little surprising that there are precisely five Labour back benchers present—six with the arrival of the right hon. Member for Battersea, North (Mr. Jay). This is a bit thick.

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In opening this debate, I want to do four things. First, I shall deal briefly with the presentation of the figures in the White Paper, noting some of the changes we have made—mostly in response to proposals put forward by the Select Committee. Next, I shall say something about our priorities on public spending as reflected in the various programmes in the White Paper. Thirdly, I shall put the totality of our spending plans in an economic context and seek to show that over the medium term they are consistent with our overall objectives. Finally, I want to say something, perhaps in a more reflective vein, about the problems of controlling public spending in the context of all the pressures and demands to which modern democratic Governments are subjected.
I shall refer in passing to the Opposition's amendment. If my hon. Friend the Minister of State catches the eye of the Chair he will be able to reply to some of the specific points that the hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne (Mr. Sheldon) will no doubt make.
The House will realise that for good reasons the debate is happening somewhat later in the parliamentary cycle than usual, while the Budget is coming much earlier than usual. Right hon. and hon. Members will understand that anything I say about the general short-term economic situation is bound to be heavily circumscribed. This is a pity, but I fear it is inevitable.
The public expenditure debate is the only occasion we have for considering the totality of public spending plans for this and the ensuing four years, and it is obviously in principle desirable that we should be able to debate it in a proper, full economic context. The delays occasioned by the tripartite talks and the need for the White Paper to take account of their consequences has of necessity pushed this debate too near the Budget for Treasury Ministers to be able to speak as freely as they would wish.
Nevertheless, the debate provides an opportunity for the Government to put their policies and priorities before the House and for the House to express its views and, it may be, its criticisms.
This year, in distinction from last year, we are having only a single day's debate.
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While this accords with the recommendation made in the Expenditure Committee's Sixth Special Report, the timing has meant that we are debating the White Paper after the Committee has had a little time to begin to review it although it has not yet had time to report on it. It published yesterday, as minutes of evidence, some memoranda it has had from the Treasury and from its special adviser, Mr. Wynne Godley. Hon. Members may wish to draw on those memoranda in their speeches, but, because I suspect that most will not have had time to study the very detailed figures fully, I do not intend to refer to them.
Mr. Robert Sheldon: The document is important.
Mr. Jenkin: That is right, but it was published only yesterday, and it would be a little difficult for hon. Members to take much account of the figures in the intervening time.
Nobody could claim that our public expenditure debates in previous years have been an unqualified success. I think that those of us who took part in the first debate in January 1970 have been somewhat disappointed that our earlier hopes in this respect have not always been realised. But we remain anxious to try to find the best method to deal with this enormously important subject on the Floor of the House. In some ways perhaps these continuing difficulties reflect a fairly widespread uncertainty as to how the House can most usefully and effectively scrutinise public expenditure and fulfil its functions in this regard.
But of one thing we can be sure—that it is to the Select Committee, and particularly to the General Sub-Committee, that we must first look for the solution to these specifically parliamentary problems. Here I can endorse the opening words of the amendment:
"whilst paying tribute to the work of the Expenditure Committee and its Sub-Committees".
I wholly associate myself and the Government with that tribute. The Committee undertook a great deal of valuable work in the last session of Parliament, and is now producing a steady stream of reports, some of which the House will no doubt wish to debate in due course.
This is perhaps the moment, too, to express the Government's thanks to my

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right hon. Friend the Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann), who, with the tact and ability to which we have become accustomed, piloted the Expenditure Committee through its early years, and to offer my congratulations to my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South (Sir H. d'Avigdor-Goldsmid) on taking over the chair of this key Committee. It is a fitting climax to a long and distinguished parliamentary career.
I hope, too, that I shall not be misunderstood if I pay a brief tribute to Dick Taverne, who brought a considerable knowledge to the job of Chairman of the General Sub-Committee, and whose recommendations have considerably influenced the format and content of successive White Papers. I gladly offer my best wishes to the hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne on succeeding to the chair of the Sub-Committee. He, too, has shown a deep interest in the subject, and we wish him well.
I believe that each successive White Paper has greatly benefited from the suggestions for improvements made by the General Sub-Committee, and that it is fair for the Government to claim some credit for the prompt and full response we have made to those proposals. I shall not rehearse again the changes made in earlier years, except to say that the wider coverage and greater detail, the improvement of the constant price figures, and the introduction last year of the further step of expressing the figures for spending in terms of their demand on resources, were all valuable innovations.
This year the most obvious new development is the inclusion of Table 1.2, the medium-term resources table. It owes its presence almost entirely to the recommendation of the General Sub-Committee. Governments of both main parties have hitherto taken the view that the balance of advantage was against publication of anything like the medium-term assessment. I gave evidence to that effect to the General Sub-Committee last year, but anyone who has studied the evidence will realise what I mean when I say that there were strong arguments on both sides. For this reason my right hon. Friend the Chancellor has decided that this year as an experiment we should produce a table which goes a very long way to meet the substance of the Com-
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mittee's request. I shall return to a fuller explanation of the table later on.
In addition to the resources table we have extended the commentaries on individual programmes and included further material about the purposes of the expenditure and what it achieves. In this connection we have studied the Eighth Report of the Expenditure Committee with very great interest. The Committee has there suggested that the next White Paper should include tables showing the relationships between expenditure and output.
The Committee thinks that the public have a right to know not merely what is being spent but what they are getting for their money, and whether the Government are laying it out in the best way, given the needs and wishes of the country. I wholly endorse this aim.
The problem is to find figures which which really illuminate these questions. Sometimes, as the Committee has shown, this is possible in fairly simple form—the relationship of expenditure on nursery places to the number of children in the age group and the number of places provided. The committee's other example was prison expenditure and the expected prison population. We can try to provide that sort of information for a good many programmes. I hope that we can make a start next year.
However, we may not be able to bring the real issues into the open. To take the two examples which I have quoted, that information does not help to answer the question, "Were the Government right to decide to expand the provision of nursery places?" or, "Should we be providing new prisons or exploring other methods of dealing with offenders?"
The Government and Select Committees go into the questions at great length, and a variety of ways of presenting material is needed. Tables of the kind which the committee propose may help, but I do not think that they will throw a great deal of light on the real options that we face. We shall certainly aim to draw together expenditure figures, economic analysis and the explanation of policies in the text of future White Papers. But we must not expect too much from that. I do not want the House to confuse the measuring of

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physical output, like the numbers of nursery places, the miles of motorways built, or even factories built in assisted areas, with the measuring of the success of these programmes in meeting their policy aims.
Mr. Frank Allaun: Is it not more important than the options on nursery schools, and so on, that this document shows a 13 per cent. cut in public housing expenditure and a 10 per cent. increase in defence expenditure? By this document are not the Government tying their hands for nearly four years hence, and tying the hands of the Government which will follow in their early years?
Mr. Jenkin: On the first part of the hon. Gentleman's question, I will say a word about housing in a moment. On the second part, I do not think that the Government are tying their hands. Inevitably there must be flexibility in the management of these programmes. They are a projection of spending on present policies.
When we talk of measuring the output from a spending programme, it is not so much the quantity of assets produced or the number of people served that matters as the extent to which one is contributing to the overall policy aim—for instance, less crime, a better educated people, more efficient transport and the optimum use of manpower resources. It is in assessing results in those terms that the real problem of measurement emerges.
One difficulty in all this, of which I and I am sure other hon. Members who have taken part in these debates over the years must be very conscious, is that there has been a tendency for the management and scrutiny of public expenditure to be regarded increasingly as an esoteric exercise understood and participated in by relatively few experts. In part this is due to the intrinsic complexity of the subject, which, indeed, there is bound to be in the spending of some £25,000 million a year. But in part it has been due to the amount of technical explanation which previous White Papers have included both in footnotes and appendices. Yet at the same time all these technicalities have not necessarily been enough to enable laymen coming fresh to the subject to understand what the figures
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mean and how they have been compiled. We have pursued an idea which was evolved in discussion with the Expenditure Committee and have produced a separate handbook on methodology. I commend it to the House as a small, but nevertheless worthwhile exercise in open government. Apart from other advantages, it has helped to make the presentation of Part I of the White Paper a good deal shorter and simpler than in previous years.
I can assure the House that this process of improvement of the presentation of expenditure figures has by no means ended. The next important step is to reform the presentation of the Estimates so as to relate them very much more closely with the five-year projections in the White Paper. A great deal of work has been done on this in Whitehall and we shall shortly be submitting proposals both to the Expenditure Committee and to the Public Accounts Committee for their consideration. The main thrust of this reform, if it proves acceptable to the House, will be to present the Estimates on the same functional basis as we present the five-year projections. I believe this will be of help to the House in considering the whole question.
Let me now turn to the substance of the White Paper. Although these White Papers do not announce new policies, they do bring together all the changes made during the course of the year, as well as the revised costings. These are reflected in the distinctive and deliberate profile of spending projected over the next five years. The overall picture that emerges—and this is most clearly shown in the figures in paragraph 5 of Part I of the White Paper—is the sharp increases in expenditure this year and next, followed by very much smaller increases in the later years. As we made clear in the White Paper, this profile so far from being "unplanned", represents specific decisions taken for specific and defined purposes—[Interruption.] I think that I am entitled to take the Opposition's amendment at its face value.
Last year my predecessor explained the introduction of counter-cyclical measures——
Mr. Joel Barnett: I am sure that hon. Members opposite will be interested to know whether the whole of this is the original plan of June 1970.
Mr. Jenkin: I am coming to deal with that as the Select Committee has dealt with it. I was referring to the counter-cyclical measures and the fact that my predecessor last year explained them to the House. The White Paper shows them to be over £400 million in 1972–73.
That increase is explicable under this head. It is comprised of a number of specific measures intended to last for a limited period and undertaken for the purpose of increasing demand and reducing unemployment mainly in the assisted areas. I take the point made by the hon. Member for Heywood and Royton (Mr. Joel Barnett) in his intervention a moment ago. He is reflecting what appears to be an implied criticism of the counter-cyclical system which is reflected in the figures in the White Paper. But surely he has not forgotten—perhaps I can have his attention for a moment—that in the Expenditure Committee's Seventh Report some comments were made on the use of public expenditure for the short-term management of demand. It said:
"We think that the use of public expenditure to correct short-term deficiency of demand is an essential element of policy."
That is what the Expenditure Committee think, and so do I. If the hon. Gentleman disagrees, perhaps he may have an opportunity to explain why.
Mr. Nicholas Ridley: Will my hon. Friend tell the House where the Government have got to in the cycle?
Mr. Jenkin: I appreciate the reasons for my hon. Friend's question. Immediately we run into the difficulty which I outlined at the beginning of my speech. Treasury Ministers cannot at this time be drawn on the question of short-term forecasts. That is a matter for my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who will be opening his Budget in just over four weeks' time.
Mr. J. Bruce-Gardyne: I understand that my hon. Friend cannot be drawn on that aspect. However, can he enlighten the House at this stage about the extent to which the counter-cyclical programmes contained in this year's White Paper and in last year's White Paper are up to schedule? My experience in my area is that they are months and perhaps years behind schedule. Those
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that were designed to make an impact on unemployment 12 months ago are only beginning to make any impact.
Mr. Jenkin: I cannot answer my hon. Friend in the terms in which he asks his question. There must be a wide variation in the extent to which the various short-term increases in expenditure have taken effect within the time-scale envisaged. However, I have taken a careful note of what he says about his own constituency.
Mr. Joel Barnett: This is very important. Many people will be concerned about what the hon. Gentleman has said. I should be obliged if he would clarify it, although I take the point of what he said about the Budget. The hon. Gentleman was asked about the counter-cyclical nature of some programmes, and he replied that everything depended in the short term on the Budget. But in Table 1.3 of the White Paper we are told that counter-cyclical measures will total £177 million in 1973–74. Will the hon. Gentleman clarify whether what he has said was intended to mean that that sum will not now be spent?
Mr. Jenkin: I did not mean anything of the sort and I am sure that the hon. Gentleman is quite aware of that. A good deal of the counter-cyclical expenditure was in last year's White Paper.
What the Select Committee recognise, and what the Government acknowledge, about this kind of use of public expenditure is that it does involve very great problems and difficulties. Indeed, some of these are touched upon in an interesting leading article in The Guardian today. The Select Committee suggested that we should undertake a detailed study of the processes and the time lags involved—and perhaps my hon. Friend the Member for South Angus (Mr. Bruce-Gardyne) will agree that this meets his point—in undertaking counter-cyclical spending. I agree that we should examine our existing procedures in the light of recent experience, and such an examination is in hand.
Other new policies have been introduced to meet industrial and regional development. They are not limited to the short term because we regard it as essential that these policies should be implemented in time to contribute to the

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short-term measures to increase demand, while at the same time and in the longer term they will help to strengthen the industrial base of the economy.
From that distinctive profile, I turn to the priorities reflected in the White Paper. In all the Press clamour which greeted publication of the White Paper—there was more of it than in the previous year—there was, like the dog which barked, or, perhaps, did not bark in the night, virtual silence when it came to criticising our priorities between programmes. I shall come later to deal with the attacks which have been made, and no doubt will be made, about the totality of the programme, but on the whole the priorities as between programmes seem generally to have been approved, at any rate until today.
The White Paper shows the importance we attach, for instance, to education. We have a high and rising level of expenditure, rising, indeed, at twice the rate of public expenditure as a whole. Furthermore, this programme reflects the changing priorities within the education budget as recently set out in the White Papers by my right hon. Friends the Secretaries of State for Education and Science and for Scotland.
Again, the programme for health and personal social services is expanding at much the same pace. The reorganisation will pave the way for a more efficient and effective National Health Service, and within the overall programme special emphasis will continue to be given to meet various special needs, including those of the mentally and physically handicapped.
Again, priorities have also been reviewed within the programmes for which my right hon. and learned Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment is responsible. As the White Paper shows, he is devoting a greater share of his budget directly to the improvement of the environment, and it also shows a slight reduction as compared with last year's White Paper in the rate of growth of spending on roads.
Mr. Douglas Jay: Some of us have expressed an opinion about priorities for roads. Has the hon. Gentleman seen the excellent report of the Sub-Committee on Urban Transport
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Planning, which argues that our spending on urban motorways is excessive and invites the Government to re-examine all existing schemes? Are the Government doing so?
Mr. Jenkin: I have read the report and I agree that it contains many interesting points. In time the Government will give their observations on it. I leave it there for the moment.
The hon. Member for Salford, East (Mr. Frank Allaun) drew the attention of the House to housing. We know his views. They are to some extent, although not wholly, reflected by the Opposition generally. The Opposition want massive and indiscriminate subsidies irrespective of ability to pay, coupled with inflated national targets without regard to what councils either need or want to build. But, of course, the Opposition are quite right in one sense—it would cost a very great deal more than our programme if that sort of policy were to be put into practice. But it would be spending with very little relevance to priorities or to need, or, I suspect, to the real desires and ambitions of our people. However, this subject was extensively explored in yesterday's debate, so perhaps I may leave it there.
Still on priorities, and perhaps more controversial on this side of the House, are the measures we are taking to encourage the expansion of industry, particularly in the regions. We are determined to make a better use of the manpower and other resources available in the less prosperous parts of Britain, and the new range of industrial and regional development measures introduced last year were designed to achieve this purpose. Indeed, in terms of spending, these are the biggest changes which have been made since last year's White Paper. Indeed, since the election, with the exception of spending on social security, they represent the biggest overall changes and reflect the Government's determination to reduce unemployment and to stimulated and sustain the growth of the economy.
Mr. Tam Dalyell: Does not the hon. Gentleman recognise that the single most important thing that he could do to achieve that objective would be to undertake in the Budget that

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the regional employment premium will be continued in the foreseeable future?
Mr. Jenkin: Obviously, I cannot discuss the Budget; but my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer will have heard what the hon. Gentleman said.
On the smaller programmes also, the White Paper reflects our priorities. Expenditure on law and order, for example, planned to grow at nearly two and a half times the rate of growth of public expenditure as a whole, is a measure of our concern for the protection of the citizen from crime and violence and for the effective treatment of the offender. I believe that these are priorities which commend, and rightly so, if not universal support, then at any rate wide support in the House.
Mr. Gwynoro Jones: Would the hon. Gentleman care to comment on what sense of priorities the Government have in reducing housing expenditure by £134 million while increasing defence expenditure by over £300 million?
Mr. Jenkin: The hon. Gentleman should recognise that although people do not contribute directly on their own to the defence of the country, a very large number of people spend their own resources, rightly and properly, on providing their own housing, and are quite prepared to do it.
I want to turn now to the subject which has attracted most attention in the Press and which will do so, I suspect, in the debate. This is the criticisms of the overall magnitude of our plans for public spending. I believe that there has been a good deal of misunderstanding on this and I hope to clarify the position.
In the first place, the overall growth rate over the five-year period as a whole is not excessive. Despite the new policies to which I have referred, the average annual growth rate in terms of demand on resources is only a little over 3 per cent. That hardly spells the economic ruin that some commentators have predicted.
Secondly, as I have pointed out, after 1973–74 the planned rate of increase is very much slower than in the earlier years. These are costed programmes on present policies. There has been one
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suggestion that—as one commentator put it—the "hump" is bound to move forward. There is no reason why the "hump" should be bound to roll forward.
Thirdly, as Table 2A indicates, these low growth figures overall include in the last three years the largest contingency reserves ever provided. These rise from £350 million in 1973–74 to no less than £700 million in 1976–77.
Mr. Bruce-Gardyne: Why?
Mr. Jenkin: Because this is prudent management of public money.
Mr. Bruce-Gardyne: No.
Mr. Jenkin: Of course it is. [Laughter.] I do not know why hon. Gentlemen opposite should jeer at that. All Governments have seen the need for a substantial contingency reserve. All we are saying is that, as the years go by, as experience grows, if we can contain a contingency reserve, as we have done, within an overall growth rate which is acceptable in the medium term, that is no more and no less than prudent management of public expenditure.
Mr. Bruce-Gardyne Mr. Bruce-Gardyne rose——
Mr. Jenkin: I have given way a great deal. Perhaps my hon. Friend will catch Mr. Speaker's eye.
It is our aim that the changes needed for counter-cyclical and other purposes should be effectively contained within a moderate rate of growth over the period.
The main weight of criticism has been that the overall level of spending is too high and it is this that is inconsistent with our other objectives of a healthy balance of payments, rising investment and private consumption. I wish to answer this criticism and I refer the House again to table 1·2, the resources table. What the table illustrates is the consistency of the programme for public expenditure with our other economic objectives, taking a range of growth assumptions and a range of investment assumptions over the medium term as a whole.
Perhaps it would be helpful if at this stage I explained to the House exactly what table 1·2 means. I have described it as a resources table. It shows what the growth of resources and the claims upon those resources over the period

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from 1971 to 1977 would be on the various different assumptions set out in the table. The figures in the table represent the average annual changes over this period and, on alternative assumptions, in the several factors mentioned. Thus, the top line of figures shows the average annual change in the total resources at the country's disposal on the two alternative growth rate assumptions—3–5 per cent. per annum and 5 per cent. per annum. I should perhaps explain that these two hypotheses are those being used for current work by the National Economic Development Office which is studying the prospects of some selected industries over this period.
There has been some criticism that both these assumptions are unrealistic in that even the lower represents a higher growth rate than we have been able to sustain in the past while the 5 per cent. figure is even more ambitious. I think that these criticisms are misplaced because, although one cannot tell precisely what growth rate will be achieved during the period when we are taking up the slack in the economy, it is clear that over the period as a whole expansion should, on any reasonable prospect, be considerably faster than the average in the last ten years. The higher assumption of 5 per cent. annual increase over the whole six-year period was put in in order to reflect the possibility that there might be a breakthrough to sustained faster growth. I would, however, stress that these growth figures are not forecasts, they are not targets: they are simply hypotheses.
The rest of the table sets out the claims on the increases in resources thus postulated. There are four main items, and I will say a brief word on each.
First, private investment. As Governments of both parties know, this is something that cannot be accurately planned; but on the basis of past experience one can form a view about the rate of investment associated with different rates of economic growth. So the table postulates two variants for private investment, thus giving four alternative results.
Next, the balance of trade. The figures show the resource movements out of and into the balance of trade in such a way as to be compatible with a sound, overall external position in 1977. It is here, I think, that the table has been misunder-
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stood in some quarters. A minus figure in this line means a slower growth of exports relative to imports so that, taking both together, more resources become available for other uses. Conversely, in the higher growth case, the rise of exports has to exceed the rate of increase in imports, and the balance of trade therefore uses up some of the extra resources becoming available.
Heading 3 is simply a translation of the growth of public expenditure programmes in the White Paper into calendar year terms, and adjusted to express their effect in terms of their demand on resources. Thus in line e. the 31 percentage figure which goes through the table is compatible with the figure of 3 per cent. mentioned in paragraph 12 of the White Paper, which is in financial year terms.
Finally, the last line shows the total of national resources left available for privately financed consumption, and by that I mean consumption not financed from benefits and other State payments which are part of public expenditure.
What the table shows is that on the various hypotheses this residual—this last line—increases at rates close to the rate of increase in national resources—somewhat lower for the lower growth rate curve, somewhat more for the higher growth rate curve.
The implication which we seek to draw from this table—and this is the purpose which the Select Committee clearly had in mind in urging on the Government the inclusion of a table—is that when one assumes the public expenditure programmes set out in this White Paper and considers their implications for the management of the economy in the medium term, there should be no serious difficulty about the management of the overall demand on our resources in the medium term. Of course, it will be necessary to watch how the economy develops from year to year, and of course the Government must always be ready at any time of the year to take necessary measures up or down including measures affecting public expenditure, to maintain the steady and balanced progress of the economy over the period. But the central message is clear beyond peradventure. Those who argue that the public expenditure programmes, over the full five-year period as set out in this White Paper, are incompatible with our

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other policy objectives for growth, investment, balance of payments and a reasonable prospect for private consumption, do not make out their case.
Before leaving the resources table, I stress yet again that this does not purport to be a forecast. In the Treasury we talk about "the medium-term assessment". What it is in fact, as I told the Expenditure Committee last year, is a statistical construction based on hypotheses I apologise for the jargon but that is an accurate description of what it is. We can refer to it as a resources table and know what we mean. As such a statistical construction, it can only be as valid as the assumptions on which it is based. It is not a prescription of policies for the future; its use is simply to test the implications, in various circumstances, of the policies that have been adopted.
I believe that the Expenditure Committee recognised these limitations but felt that despite them the inclusion of such a table would be worth while and would help the Committee and the House to judge whether the Government's programme of expenditure was compatible with our other objectives. I hope that the House will feel that in meeting the Committee's wish in this regard I have also been able to satisfy it that the table establishes the propositions which I have claimed for it.
However, there will be those—and I respect their views—who will argue that, despite all that, even in the medium term, and even accepting the distinctive profile of the pattern of expenditure over the five years with its big rises this year and next, although the rises thereafter are small, that the total of our public spending is too high. They say that the public sector is too big, the private sector too small. I will acknowledge this criticism from those—and I suspect that they are very few—who can put their hands on their hearts and say they have never pressed for more to be spent on any public service. To the rest, my reaction must be a somewhat wry smile.
Do not we constantly face the dilemma, as indeed does every democratic community, between, on the one hand, the desire, expressed daily in a thousand different ways, for spending more on projects and programmes close to the hearts of their supporters—and, on the other hand, the need to ensure that the totality
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remains at acceptable levels? No one can be more conscious than those who hold my office of the perennial schizophrenia of those who always want more spending in particular, but more economy in general.
It is this dilemma—which seems to become more acute as the years go by—which prompted the setting up of the Plowden Committee in 1959, which led to the establishment of the PESC system in the early 1960s, which prompted the decision of our predecessors to embark on the series of annual public expenditure White Papers, which persuaded the present Government of the need to establish the Expenditure Committee, and which has led us to the development of the PAR system for scrutinising on-going programmes and challenging the assumptions on which they are based. It is this dilemma which inevitably dominates the annual debates on public expenditure.
Whatever the institutional arrangements, whether in Government, Parliament or elsewhere, which we create to strengthen the hands of those who recognise the need to contain public spending within acceptable limits; whatever the measures of self-discipline which Cabinets try to impose upon themselves; all these will be to no avail if individuals, whether as citizens, local councillors, Members of Parliament or pressure groups, do not themselves recognise the dilemma to which I have referred, and exercise some measure of self-discipline in the extra demands they make for more spending.
It is simply not enough to demand economy on 7th February, but spend the rest of the year pressing for still more money for schools, hospitals, technology, agriculture or whatever it may be. Still less defensible is it to ask for more spending one day, lower taxes the next, and then complain about the size of the borrowing requirement on the third. I shall be told that it is for the Government to convince people that resources are limited, and of course this is right. It is our job. But in the revolution of rising expectations it is becoming less and less easy, and Ministers do need the constant and consistent support of those who see the dangers of trying to do too much too fast.
But what is clear is that the Opposition simply do not recognise the dilemma.

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Their recent joint policy statement with the TUC postulates massive new public spending in what I can only describe as a monstrous spasm of profligacy. Further, on Monday evening we had the astonishing sight of one of the Opposition's "Shadow" Treasury spokesmen, the hon. Member for Birmingham, All Saints (Mr. Brian Walden) reacting to warnings that the cost of the indiscriminate food subsidies, to which his party now seem to be committed would be open-ended by saying that that was not a phrase that would break his heart. Open-ended food subsidies go back to 1951 when consumer food subsidies accounted for 10 per cent. of public spending as a whole and were costing the Government more than the whole of the cost of the National Health Service.
That is what the hon. Member said on Monday. On Wednesday the Opposition have the effrontery to chide us for "unplanned increases". By contrast this White Paper is an honest document, reflecting sound priorities based upon careful decisions about the nation's needs and resources over the medium term. As such I commend it to the House.
4.22 p.m.
Mr. Robert Sheldon: I beg to move, to leave out from "House" to the end of the Question and to add instead thereof:
whilst paying tribute to the work of the Expenditure Committee and its Sub-Committees, condemns the Government's public expenditure policy since 18th June 1970; especially regrets the initial cuts, followed by belated and unplanned increases, which together with its taxation, social and industrial policies have led to the present economic crisis; and further deplores priorities in Command Paper No. 5178 which reduce expenditure on housing whilst increasing that on defence.
In his initial remarks the Chief Secretary was right to point out the difficulties of holding a debate at this time, so shortly before the Budget. Ideally, we should like to see the White Paper published in November and a debate around the turn of the year, preferably after the General Sub-Committee has had an opportunity to prepare a report for consideration by this House, which would he of great value to it in discussing Government plans.
I suppose that there is one small compensating advantage in the present
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arrangement in that it concentrates the mind very powerfully upon the connection between the White Paper and the Budget. For too long we have looked at these problems in isolated compartments, one compartment headed "revenue" and the other labelled "expenditure". It gives us an opportunity at least to think of the implications of one for the other, even though we note the reluctance of spokesmen from the Treasury to discuss these matters.
The other point mentioned by the Chief Secretary in which I would wish to follow him was his praise for the work of the Expenditure Committee and its Sub-Committees. May I add my voice to the gratitude that has been expressed, for both the past work of the right hon. Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann) and the present work of the hon. Member for Walsall, South (Sir H. d'Avigdor-Goldsmid). We have been much encouraged by their application to the work of the Expenditure Committee as a whole and in particular of the General Sub-Committee. We look forward to seeing it play a more useful rôle as we come to understand the way in which we can make use of our work in this House.
May I also add my tribute to the specialist adviser to the General Sub-Committee, Mr. Wynne Godley, both for the speed with which he has acted in the face of a late White Paper on expenditure and for the assistance he has given to the General Sub-Committee.
A word about the sub-committees. I believe that it will be necessary for them to examine the White Paper in closer detail in future. They will need to examine the expenditure priorities, to see which priorities the Government have selected and at what cost. It is only when we see these other sub-committees taking a close and detailed interest in these matters, as well as issues which were formerly the province of the Estimates Committee, that we can get the scrutiny of public expenditure which is so much required.
I must also thank the Treasury for the production of Table 1.2, the table of resources and claims which is something towards the medium-term assessment for which the General Sub-Committee has asked. We thank the

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Treasury for this information but must make it clear that this is only one step along the road towards much greater information for which I am sure the Expenditure Committee will ask in future. I would be surprised if the General Sub-Committee were satisfied with much less than the equality of information which alone will enable it to understand the workings of the Government and to play a constructive rôle.
Mr. Patrick Jenkin: I recognise the importance of what the hon. Gentleman said, but in one sense the Select Committee will never be satisfied. It must be realised that limits must be set at some stage, not only on the volume of material which Departments are asked to provide but also upon the extent to which the detailed probing of Select Committees can go. We cannot reach the point at which a Select Committee is in effect sitting at the desks of the Treasury Ministers and peering over their shoulders. I hope that the Select Committee when it considers these requests, which I understand, will bear in mind that to some extent there must be a degree of self-restraint, as in many other things.
Mr. Sheldon: I understand the point but perhaps the Chief Secretary did not understand mine. What I was asking for was not an increase in the questioning of Ministers beyond what is reasonable. Anyone can see that there must be a limit to that. What I am asking is that that information which is possessed by the Government, which forms an integral part of the work of Government, which is the foundation of much of their economic decisions, must insofar as it impinges upon public expenditure, be made available to the General Sub-Committee and the House.
What I would like to see—and this is one of the figures about which the Government have formed an opinion but which is always denied to the General Sub-Committee—is the current assessment. I refer not to the range of assessments but to the assessment made by the Government about the present level of productive potential. This would be most valuable since it underlies so much of the Government's plans and strategy.
The kind of information we hope to receive eventually includes the tax implications of all of this. This last
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matter is the subject of undue sensitivity in my view. Because of that it will be one of the sets of figures that will come rather later in the day. These are matters to which we shall certainly wish to turn at some stage in the future although obviously not the near future.
There are two parts to a speech in any debate about the Expenditure Committee. There is the part relating to the work of the Expenditure Committee as a whole and its detailed examination of Government spending. Then there is the second part which relates to the different choices which can be made between the priorities selected by the Government at any time. These two aspects are reflected in the Opposition's amendment to today's motion.
There are those who believe that perhaps today's debate coupled with the Opposition amendment might be considered to be an undesirable way in which to find the work of the Expenditure Committee progressing. The amendment results in the introduction of considerable party controversy. However, those who are interested in the proper examination of public expenditure ought to welcome this. If our work has any relevance and is seen to be relevant it will mean automatically that it becomes the very stuff of party controversy. It is only when it is detached that one can adopt an aloof attitude and discuss the technicalities alone. I have always seen the General Sub-Committee as the provider of ammunition and information for others to use to bring pressure to bear in any given direction.
The Opposition amendment points to the belated and unplanned increases in public expenditure referred to in the White Paper. We see the nature of those changes. We have had three White Papers—in January 1971, November 1971 and December 1972. We see in the first White Paper that according to Treasury figures there was a reduction in public expenditure of £942 million. That was in January 1971. It was the period of standing on one's own two feet and the abolition of lame ducks. At that time we were about a million miles away from the present Counter-Inflation Bill.
In November 1971, when the Government's confidence was not quite so obvious as it had been previously, we were

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faced with a decline in industrial investment and an increase in unemployment of unmanageable proportions. As a result, the Government began to nibble at the apple of intervention. They increased public expenditure by £482 million.
Then we come to the situation in December 1972. We see an increase in public expenditure of £1,213 million. These are all figures of expenditures in the year 1974–75.
I am reminded of the forcible feeding of a Peking duck. The amount of food going into this previously unmanageable animal is reaching serious proportions——
Mr. Bruce-Gardyne: In fairness to the House the hon. Gentleman should explain the attitude of the Opposition at this stage. Is the hon. Gentleman saying that they are in favour of overall reductions in the level of public expenditure? If so, surely the hon. Gentleman should say that that is the view of the Opposition.
Mr. Sheldon: The hon. Gentleman ought to read the latter part of the Opposition amendment which deals with the choices as we would have them and makes proposals for precisely the kind of situation where, if one is in favour of a certain kind of expenditure, it is necessary to illustrate just what it is that one wishes to cut, as the Chief Secretary pointed out. We have done that in the second part of our amendment, to which I shall refer in due course.
Mr. David Price: The hon. Gentleman was talking about support for industry. The amendment talks of spending less on defence and more on housing. However, it says nothing about support for industry, and that is the very point on which he is at present attacking my right hon. and hon. Friends. Does the hon. Gentleman think it right to give more money to industry?
Mr. Sheldon: I am surprised to hear that the hon. Gentleman expects to see every single item in an amendment of this kind——
Mr. Price: The hon. Gentleman made a point about it.
Mr. Sheldon: This is a matter of proper economic development. We would deal with a situation in a way that provided better prospects for growth because we should not be spending the initial period of our time in office trying to bash the trade unions and creating the kind of industrial difficulties that right hon. and hon. Gentlemen opposite have had. We would create better opportunities for industrial expansion and would not squander them as right hon. and hon. Gentlemen opposite have done.
Mr. Price: That is not an answer to my question——
Mr. Sheldon: I do not intend to give way any more. I have a great deal to say, and a considerable number of right hon. and hon. Members wish to take part in the debate——
Mr. Price: The hon. Gentleman has not answered my question.
Mr. Sheldon: The hon. Member for Eastleigh (Mr. David Price) must understand that his Government squandered their first two years in office making asinine cuts in public expenditure and, as a result, they now have to execute an about-turn and pour in money to compensate for their errors. It is too much to expect every incoming Government to do the same.
Mr. Barber: May I ask the hon. Gentleman one simple question? At this stage are the Opposition in favour of more or less public expenditure?
Mr. Sheldon: Public expenditure will always be high under a Labour Administration—[HON. MEMBERS: "Oh."] We have never denied that, and we stand by it. However, it would be a planned increase in public expenditure. [HON. MEMBERS: "More."] It would not be subject to the mistakes committed by an over-adherence to outworn philosophies such as that we see in the present situation.
Mr. Price: Now perhaps the hon. Gentleman will answer the question.
Mr. Sheldon: I have answered the question. If the hon. Member for Eastleigh had been listening he would have followed my argument. He cannot assume that the errors of the present Government

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will be repeated by an incoming Labour Government. We have always committed ourselves to a high level of public expenditure, but to a planned increase of public expenditure. The main burden of my case is the totally unplanned nature of the public expenditure increase that we have seen. It has not been a response to the kind of arrangement which the Government had in mind. Rather it has been a response to the errors that they themselves have made.
It is obviously a difficult matter to use an increase in public expenditure as a method of managing the economy. However, that is not what the Government had in mind when they decided to use public expenditure in this way. Looking at the figures which the Treasury has provided, we see that in the next financial year, 1973–74, public expenditure is scheduled to increase by £1,159 million. It means that in November 1971 the Government had one figure in mind for public expenditure and in December 1972 they had in mind a figure of £1,159 million greater than that which they had planned for the year 1973–74. There was already an increase in that year because there was some remnant at that stage of steady increases in public expenditure year by year. This is an increase upon the increase of public expenditure of £1,159 million in the 1972 survey prices. The Government have increased the amount of public expenditure in that year in that way.
If this had been a counter-cyclical device because the Government had made a mistake on investment and on the level of unemployment and had then panicked and poured money in to deal with the management of the economy in the short term, it might be more understandable. But one thing that the Public Expenditure (General) Sub-Committee understands is that most public expenditure for these purposes is rather difficult to arrange. It is not easy to build roads and drop building them six months later when the counter-cyclical reasons have ended. It is not easy to deal with a level of unemployment which might occur at a particular time or to deal with a level of low manufacturing investment at any particular time. It is not easy to find those programmes which can be put into effect, carried out, and then switched off. There are few programmes of that kind.
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The Public Expenditure (General) Sub-Committee examined the criteria for introducing expenditure of this kind in its 7th Report. In this report we see that accelerated projects must meet three particular criteria. It must be possible to bring counter-cyclical expenditure to an end mainly within a period of two years. These are the criteria which the Treasury, when asked, produced. The criteria for counter-cyclical projects are
"that they can be started, that they can be undertaken within a limited time scale and then be stopped, and that they will in practice have an effect."
Dealing with the particular problems of 1971–72, the Committee said that it must he possible within the period under consideration
"to bring the extra expenditure to an end, mainly within a period of two years on current plans. It is not intended that the present extra measures should lead to increases in public expenditure over the whole five-year period covered by Cmnd. 4829."
We see the definition of the use of public expenditure being given by the Treasury itself. If we look at the £1,200 million that is given in Command 5178 we see that in Table 1.3, as my hon. Friend the Member for Heywood and Royton (Mr. Joel Barnett) pointed out, there is less than £200 million of that for counter-cyclical reasons. So when the Government panicked and committed themselves to an extra increase in public expenditure for 1973–74 of £1,200 million, only £200 million of that was to have an effect on either reducing unemployment or increasing investment in that period. So we have this massive unplanned distortion of public expenditure. For the sake of £200 million the Government have increased public expenditure by £1,200 million and then failed utterly to carry out the injunction provided by the Treasury in the use of counter-cyclical forms of public expenditure.
When we compare the use of this money with what happened previously—the period when they were busy ending free school milk, when they were cutting down the costs of art galleries by imposing absurd admission charges, raising the cost of school meals and abolishing the Consumer Council—we find that not much more than a year later they are pouring money into projects which have nothing to do with the ending or reduction of

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unemployment or with the raising of industrial investment.
The figures showing the cuts in January, 1971, slightly restored in 1971, and then massively increased in December 1972, provide the arithmetical record of the Government's failure in their competition policy to bring about the changes of our economy to end unemployment that they tried in the summer of last year and the stimulation of investment. The business men of this country, having failed to heed the incentives, are also failing to heed the exhortations being pumped into the air by the Prime Minister at this time.
The lesson to be learned from this debate is that the country is paying a heavy price for the education of this Government who are producing these unplanned increases, changes and fluctuations in public expenditure which can only be a disadvantage to the country and cannot accord with either the spirit of the Public Expenditure (General) Sub-Committee or the proper control of public expenditure in Britain today.
The specialist adviser, Mr. Wynne Godley, has made some calculations as a result of the information given in the White Paper. Referring to Table 1.2 he has estimated that with a growth rate of 5 per cent. the increase in personal consumption would be 2½ per cent. Although I have the whole derivation of the figures here, it is not possible in the confines of the debate in the House of Commons to go into a close examination of them because of the way that we conduct our debates. Mr. Wynne Godley is probably the most prominent expert in this country on these matters. We have had the benefit of his help for the past two years or so now and I have the greatest confidence in him and pleasure at being able to work with him in these areas. I can only give these figures baldly, but certainly in later reports we shall be attempting to justify some of them.
Mr. Bruce-Gardyne: Does the hon. Gentleman nevertheless agree that it would be desirable in this debate on the Floor of the House to make it clear that the Treasury, in public evidence, emphasised that the estimates on which Mr. Wynne Godley based his forward projections of potential consumer expenditure were based on his estimates of the outturn in 1971–72, which were not cur-
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rently quantifiable, and that the Treasury had considerable reservations about them?
Mr. Sheldon: As a member of the General Sub-Committee, to which he made a valuable contribution, the hon. Member for South Angus (Mr. Bruce-Gardyne) knows that the Treasury felt unable to comment on these matters because we were virtually in the area of politics. It was said that the matter was more suitably dealt with by the Minister. The conclusions were deducible, but it was not easy for a Treasury official to give us the reasons why this happened. These questions are relevant to the debate, and I hope that they will be answered when the Minister replies to it.
With a growth rate of 5 per cent. during 1973 and 1974, personal consumption is likely to increase by about 2½ per cent. With a growth rate of 3½ per cent., the increase in personal consumption would be about zero. If we consider the possibility, which is now becoming a reasonable probability, of a growth rate of about 4 per cent., the increase in personal consumption is a bare 1 per cent.
The importance of all this is that although these figures are deducible from those in the White Paper on Public Expenditure, they are not as easy to deduce as they would be if we received the further information for which we have asked, and for which we shall be asking again. The information that we are able to deduce has massive implications not only for public expenditure as a whole but also for the Government's economic and counter-inflationary policies and for the trade unions who, when they begin their discussions, will have before them a figure for the increase in personal consumption rather below that which they are being led to believe will be the result of such negotiations. It is therefore right to ask the Minister to deal with this aspect of the work of the General Sub-Committee.
I turn from the management of public expenditure to the priorities within it and particularly to those that have been chosen by the Government. The Opposition have selected one issue for debate, but there are many others which could have been chosen. The Government's poor performance in so many respects

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could have produced, and will, I hope, eventually produce, a great deal of controversy in the House. The one aspect about which we feel strongly is that of defence spending compared with spending on housing.
The figures speak for themselves, and I shall not do much more than quote them. Yesterday we debated the Government's housing record. During the period 1964–65 to 1969–70, when the Labour Government were in office, defence expenditure fell each year by 1 per cent. In the period 1972–73 to 1976–77—the period covered by the White Paper on Public Expenditure—defence expenditure is estimated to rise by 2½ per cent. per annum on the basis of cost. Under the Labour Government expenditure fell by 1 per cent. a year, while under this Administration it is increasing by 2½ per cent. a year. This extra £300 million is of enormous importance because of the other uses to which it could be put.
When one considers the housing situation, one sees what the Government are trying to save there. During the period 1964–65 to 1969–70, under the Labour Administration, there was an annual increase of 2½ per cent. in housing expenditure. Under the Conservative Government, up to the period 1976–77 housing expenditure is to be reduced by 3 per cent. per annum. We increased it by 2½ per cent. per annum, the Conservatives are reducing it by 3 per cent. per annum, at a loss to housing of £170 million.
Mr. Frank Allaun: Is it not a fact that even as things are we are top of the league table among industrialised nations in the proportion of the GNP being spent on arms?
Mr. Bruce-Gardyne: What about the Russians?
Mr. Allaun: They have to be counted with the Americans who have an even higher figure. Among our NATO allies —France, Germany, and so on—we are top of the table for arms spending. For housing, on the other hand, we are at the bottom of the table. I think I am right in saying that this survey will mean that we shall lead the arms table by an even greater amount and drop even further down the housing table.
Colonel Sir Harwood Harrison: The hon. Gentleman is being unfair about
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defence expenditure. He should remember that the biggest proportion of the defence budget is spent on pay for men in the Services. Recruiting has increased, and that has accounted for a lot of the extra money.
Mr. Sheldon: The hon. and gallant Gentleman will have to find a remedy for that. Other countries have their own problems and will have to deal with them in their own way.
The Opposition do not accept the Government's priorities, and I shall deal with the international comparison to which my hon. Friend the Member for Salford, East (Mr. Frank Allaun) referred. He is right when he says that these priorities do not apply in Western European countries. A study of the figures shows that as a proportion of the GNP spent on defence the figure for France is 3·1 per cent., for Germany it is 2·8 per cent., for Italy it is 2·6 per cent., while for the United Kingdom it is 4·7 per cent. The comparable figures for residential constructions are: France, 6·9 per cent.; Germany 5·4 per cent.; Italy 7 per cent.; while the United Kingdom figure is 2·9 per cent. Those figures are an appalling indictment of the Government.
Faced with the situation that we are spending so much more as a proportion of GNP on defence and so much less on housing, the Government are making the situation much worse by increasing the amount to be spent on defence and reducing still further the amount to be spent on housing. This is the wrong way round. The Government must understand this. When the hon. Member for Eastleigh interrupts to ask what my solution is and I say, "You are going the wrong way; turn round", that is an answer. If he fails to understand that answer, he fails to understand what the heart of a public expenditure debate should be. I must tell him that it should be about the misallocation of resources by the Government and about their proper use by an incoming Administration which would choose their priorities in a different way.
Mr. David Price: With great respect, the hon. Member has not answered my original intervention which was about the increasing expenditure by the present Government on support for industry. This argument is irrelevant to the point on which the hon. Member was speaking

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when I interrupted him. He was complaining that the Government were spending too much money, suddenly, upon intervention in industry.
Mr. Sheldon: The hon. Gentleman has such a short memory. He forgets that it was the previous Administration who introduced investment grants which were spent on getting the highest level of investment for the last decade, that the present Government reversed that policy and we have had the lowest level of investment and are now at a level that is even lower than that which existed in 1964. That is the indictment of the Government and of the manner in which they choose to spend the money accorded by the country.
As a country, we have entrusted to us each year nearly £30,000 million by the people who give us this money to spend. It is absolutely crucial that we give them good value for it, and that we bring this matter into the political debate to discuss what it is that should be spent and what it is that should be reduced. That we shall try to do. We shall try to make sure that the value that the people get is that to which they are entitled and which is enshrined in the amendment.
5.2 p.m.
Sir Henry d'Avigdor-Goldsmid: The hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne (Mr. Sheldon) started his speech in an atmosphere of great brotherly love but was able to dissolve it fairly effectively by the end of his speech. I do not complain about that, because we get better audiences for a debate of this sort if it has a political head attached to it. However, I thought that the hon. Gentleman did his side fairly well, in that because of the length of his speech he made it unnecessary for many of his supporters to follow him.
His point about defence was very weak, because he appeared to have omitted to see the report of the Defence and External Affairs Sub-Committee of the Expenditure Committee, which was published just before Christmas. I should like to remind him that this is what it says:
"In our previous Report we recommended that consideration should be given to removing expenditure on health, married accommodation and, especially, education from the
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defence budget. We said that we believed that to include them in the defence budget was misleading … This recommendation was rejected by the Secretary of State for Defence. The figure (£259 million) is substantial and must obscure the actual defence figures."
It is clear that it not only obscures the actual defence figures but obscures the finest attention of the Members of the Opposition who drafted the amendment.
If we are to have a debate on housing every day, I for one should welcome it, because I want to hear a great deal more about the municipalisation of rented accommodation about which, as the weeks pass, we shall hear more and more, because it was about the only thing which was certainly a great encouragement to those of us who fought the General Election in 1959.
We start off by saying that an agreeable atmosphere contributes to good chairmanship. I am in a strong position to do that, because I inherited this distinguished Committee with its distinguished membership from my right hon. Friend the Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann) who made such a great contribution to it. I must also pay my tribute to the hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne, who has been a most assiduous and effective chairman of the General Sub-Committee. I am grateful to him for the attention he gave to these affairs. I should not like there to be any doubt on that point.
The House might like to know some details of the assiduity with which the General Sub-Committee has pursued its studies. The White Paper on Public Expenditure to 1976–1977 was published just before the Christmas recess. The sub-committee met again immediately after the House resumed, on the 24th January. It received Mr. Wynne Godley's note on Cmnd. 5178, and it had evidence from the Treasury on that date, 24th January. Furthermore, the Treasury gave us a note on the estimates contained in Mr. Wynne Godley's contribution. So the sub-committee had in front of it four separate papers, which it has dealt with very effectively and satisfactorily.
I should like also to congratulate the son of the right hon. Member for Battersea, North (Mr. Jay), Mr. Peter Jay, on what I thought was a very good article in The Times today, which was based on

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either a very quick reading of these papers or, possibly, a leak—I should not like to guess which.
We must get this point clear. I have written it down and I want to make it absolutely clear. Granted all the assumptions that have to be made in dealing with these problems, which are forecasts, and forecasts of policy, and allowing for all the approximations, committed as we are to a high growth rate, the investment that is required to sustain it without impairing the balance of payments will require that the growth in personal consumption must be restricted to less than the rate of increase in production. A 5 per cent. growth rate will allow us an annual increase in personal consumption of about 2½ per cent. If the annual growth rate is only 31½ per cent., it will allow for an annual increase in personal consumption of about 1½ per cent.
This is nothing to be ashamed of. It is right that this should be put before the public. I thought that it was ungrateful of the hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne to belabour the Treasury so violently, because the Treasury produced a vast amount of information which has been the material for the debate. Without it, we certainly could not have had the informed debate that we have had. Nor should we have been in a position to make this forecast, which is a perfectly fair forecast and one with which we can and must live. If we aim at this very high growth rate, something has to go, and we have to accept the curtailment of the normal increase in personal consumption. We are not curtailing personal consumption. We are curtailing an increase in personal consumption and getting it down to about a 2½ per cent. annual level. That is the price we have to pay.
The Government have to draw some lessons from this. I have argued that there is always a moment when someone who has jumped off the top of the Post Office Tower is at the same level as someone else who is going up in the lift. But there is no comfort to be drawn from the fact that both are at the same level. The question is 5—in which direction are they bound? There is always time to do the right thing, and, thanks to this debate and these papers, the Government can see what the right thing is. It should be
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a little clearer to the Government after the debate than perhaps it was before.
We do not need to indulge in those periodical outbreaks of financial masochism to which we as a nation, and particularly we as Members of the House of Commons, are so prone. There is no need to go back on action already taken.
My attention was called to a letter in The Times last week from Sir Malby Crofton. He is not a gentleman of my acquaintance, but I naturally have a vested interested, as you have, Mr. Deputy Speaker, in the advancement of members of our order. The first time I heard of Sir Malby was when the dustmen failed to collect the refuse in the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea. However, I read Sir Malby's letter with great interest.
Sir Malby's advice to the Government runs as follows. First, reduce immediately the increase in the money supply to a nil year-on-year rate Secondly, limit and fund the £4,000 million borrowing requirement. Thirdly, bring in at least a neutral budget on 6th March giving not one single penny away to anyone—not even to dustmen. Fourthly, the Chancellor of the Exchequer should instruct his colleagues to halve the totally unrealistic 10 per cent. per annum projected growth in the social services. Fifthly, we should withdraw immediately from the Concorde project. Sixthly, we should scrap all plans for the building of a third London airport.
That may appeal to the masochistic nature of some of our colleagues, and no doubt it does, but it does not disguise the fact that it contains some good advice. We do not have to panic. We do not have to go in for a freeze. We do not have to stop all forms of future economic activity, as the letter rather suggests.
As my hon. Friends on the Treasury Bench are only too well aware, the increase in the money supply is something for which they have a good deal of responsibility. They add to the increase in money supply if they finance Government expenditure, not by long-term borrowing but by increasing the short-term debt, because Treasury bills in the hands of the clearing banks, where they eventually end up, become cash in the till available for lending to approved borrowers.
I have analysed the borrowing requirements and, as far as I can see, there is

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only £1,000 million of maturing debt to be repaid, and presumably the great bulk of this is in the hands of the National Debt Office already, so this is not a problem. According to the White Paper, there seems to be a borrowing requirement this year by the central Government of £2,338 million and by the public corporations, mainly the nationalised industries, of £2,276 million. I take this from Table 3.3. This makes a total of £4,614 million. Adding debt redemption of £1,000 million it makes £5,600 million not a negligible figure. In addition, there is local authority capital expenditure of nearly £2,600 million foreseen for 1973–74.
The Government will realise that if they do not look after the gilt-edged market—I do not mean by buying vast quantities of debt—the local authorities will he up against it as much as are the Government.
What I urge on the Government is that the Chancellor of the Exchequer and his colleagues should have a new look at the nationalised industries, because the 1963 directive on which they work—namely, that they should break even taking one year with another—has simply broken down. The nationalised industries do not break even. One of the reasons for this lies in our hands, because they are constantly interfered with in the use of their commercial judgment by social considerations. I am not saying for one moment that the nationalised industries should avoid social considerations. I am saying that we must think very hard about their financing which makes a huge claim on our available resources.
The other thought I give the Government is that one of the best ways they could have of raising money in current conditions would be to offer the public a long loan, perhaps irredeemable, with a small coupon—say, a 5 per cent. coupon but with a built-in cost of living stabiliser; in other words, the return on the loan would vary with the cost of living. If the Government are genuine and determined in their attempts to avoid inflation and destroy it, this stabilising clause would cost them nothing.
Consideration should be given to such a method. Years and years have passed and the Bank and the Treasury have
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always shut their faces against it, but at this moment we are reaching what I have described in the past as "South American borowing conditions". Governments have had to borrow at 10 per cent. or more. These are not the finances of the great financial centre of the world. These are the finances of a banana republic. This has to be taken seriously by the Government. That is why we have these debates.
The Government must scratch their heads and not accept the various refusals that their officials will give them for not adopting such innovations. Other countries have cost-of-living stabilisers in their borrowing and they are thus enabled to borrow much more cheaply than they would he in the absence of stabilisers; and in the long run it does not cost them anything.
I stress the necessity for a new look at the nationalised industries.
The inflation situation we are in is world-wide. I am sure that a month or two gained is profit in an international situation. We must tell the public that the path we have chosen—that of growing productivity—is aimed at the future, that it is a hard path to follow, and that it does not necessarily lead to the promised land, if in fact there is a promised land.
We have taken a decision in favour of betterment, wider opportunities and better conditions for those who follow us. It is certainly not an easy option. If we really mean it, we should accept the implications of this policy which are so clearly exposed in this series of papers. If we do mean it, we have the consolation that we have adopted this course voluntarily. We have not reduced our standard of living, but we have kept the degree of its improvement under control, and we have done this for a purpose—not to get out of a temporary mess, but because thereby we are achieving a proper foundation for the future life of this country. For those reasons, the White Papers that we have considered have done a considerable service.
5.20 p.m.
Mr. John Pardoe: Without taking up the very detailed and amusing points which the hon. Member for Walsall, South (Sir H. d'Avigdor-Goldsmid) made. I take some issue with

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his feeling of optimism about the effect of these White Papers. Perhaps the House will never be in danger of being mesmerised by its own success. Undoubtedly, the publication of these forward projections on public expenditure was a success when they were first introduced, but now one has to say, in the light of experience, that they are only a qualified success. Although that may be churlish, nevertheless the White Paper is not an adequate weapon by which Parliament can control the executive or the executive's power over public expenditure, and this is still true despite the changes which the right hon. Gentleman the Chief Secretary to the Treasury mentioned, many of which I wholeheartedly welcome.
One can consider public expenditure in a variety of ways. One, not yet expressed perhaps but which, no doubt, will be expressed by some hon. Members opposite, is that it has increased and is increasing and ought to be diminished both absolutely or as a proportion of GDP—a rather theological approach to public expenditure as a kind of sin. I do not make value judgments of that kind. Public expenditure versus private expenditure does not seem to me to be conceivable as an argument in moral terms. If I had to make a choice between the two, I would be biased in favour of public expenditure on the ground that if one cuts too hard, inevitably one will end up with private affluence and public squalor.
Therefore, I do not think it is helpful to compare that public expenditure with private consumption or, indeed, to consider it as a proportion of the total physical resources available. I do not see how it is possible for a Member of Parliament or a member of the public to realise what effect an increase in personal consumption of, say, ½ per cent. per annum over five years will have. I do not think it is possible for any individual to make that kind of comparison. It means nothing to the individual but it means about £1,000 million over five years to the amount available for public expenditure. I therefore discount that approach entirely.
It is unfortunately an approach which we have endeavoured to follow and it is the approach which lies behind the publication of these White Papers. It
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would be much more valuable to compare total forecast public expenditure with total forecast tax revenue. This is not new. It has recently been argued by Sir Richard Clarke in the Penguin publication, "Taxation Policy".
The White Paper debate, as the right hon. Gentleman said, is rather closer this year to the Budget debate, but even if they had been both on the same day, the Budget is concerned with a period of only 12 months ahead, even if the Government are lucky. What we need is a forecast of both public expenditure and revenue which can be compared. We can then tell the public what level of public expenditure goes with what level of taxation. Alas, we do not and shall not have the information, even when the Budget comes, on which to make this type of comparison.
I must admit that I sought rather clumsily to elicit that information—it was a long shot and I thought the Treasury would react as it did—in two Questions last week. I will not bore the House with the actual Questions, which were rather detailed, but the answers were not entirely untypical—first,
"Reliable estimates could not be provided without a disproportionate amount of time and effort".—[OFFICIAL REPORT, 31st January 1973; Vol. 849, c. 413]
and secondly,
"It is not possible to make any useful estimates of the revenue for future years on the basis asked for by the hon. Member."— [OFFICIAL REPORT, 30th January 1973, Vol. 849, c. 344.]
I am well aware that the Questions were probably as indaequate as the answers because it is exceedingly difficult to phrase those Questions. I hope the Treasury will be more forthcoming in the future. What we need to know is what will volume growth do to tax revenue and what will inflation do to tax revenue I accept that, by trying to ask the Treasury to assume a rate of inflation, it is almost tantamount to asking the Treasury to say that that rate of inflation will take place. The right hon. Gentleman answered that point himself this afternoon when talking about the different rates of growth in Table 1.2 in the White Paper on Public Expenditure.
We need to consider revenue as well as expenditure for five years ahead, because without a long-term policy towards taxation comparable to a long-term policy

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towards public expenditure, without a long-term statement of expected tax receipts comparable to that in the White Paper on Public Expenditure, we cannot usefully make that choice which we all have to make and which the Government have to make—a choice between higher public expenditure and lower taxes.
Another advantage would be that it would enable Government supporters to assess whether Government policy is aimed at promoting the Government's stated aims in taxation. It would have been very interesting to have had a forecast of the Government's expected tax revenue when they came into power. I wonder whether any right hon. or hon. Member opposite would have thought it possible that between the last year of the Labour Government and the latest year for which the Conservative Government have been responsible, taxes on income as a proportion of all personal incomes would have risen from 13·1 per cent. to 14·1 per cent. Of course what happens in the Budget next month may well change the position. But if the Chancellor wants to change those figures he has to give a lot of money away.
An interesting feature of Tory tax reforms over the years has been that Inland Revenue taxation rose by 22·2 per cent. whereas total taxation rose by 10·9 per cent. The Government's tax reforms have actually taken an opposite direction from their original intentions, which would presumably have been stated in a White Paper forecast on taxation revenue when the Government came into power. I hope we can have one now so that we can compare it with their promises and with these forecasts on public expenditure.
If one leaves aside the question of the totality of public expenditure—whether that is right or wrong vis-à-vis total physical resources—we can consider the priorities. I should like to ask a few questions on some aspects of this White Paper. I should like to refer to the table which the right hon. Gentleman proudly presented to us, Table 1.2 on page 10, which is an attempt to relate the growth of public expenditure to the growth in the economy. At least, that is what I thought it was. Perhaps that is not what it was intended to be.
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Is it intended to relate the growth of public expenditure to the growth in the economy? If so, to what rate of growth of the economy is the present programme of public expenditure related? The extraordinary point is that the only thing in the table which does not change between the two proposed rates of growth is public expenditure. That is highly unlikely. Public expenditure is the one thing in the table over which the Government have direct control.
Surely, the Government cannot be satisfied with the level of public services, with the quality or with the number of public services. One assumes that they must want more and better public services if only they could afford them. I recognise the argument about whether we can afford them, but, surely, the rate of improvement in hospitals, schools and so on is limited only to what the growth of the economy can provide.
Why, therefore, does public expenditure remain the same irrespective of the growth in the economy?
Mr. Patrick Jenkin: I am trying carefully to follow the hon. Gentleman's argument, and I think he is misunderstanding the nature of the resources table. Naturally, I shall not repeat what I said in opening, but I ought to point out that the reason for public expenditure being the same all the way across is that it represents the spending programmes in this White Paper. Whatever assumptions one makes about growth and about investment, the figures are those in this White Paper. I entirely accept that, if one found oneself on a different growth path, there might well be changes and in a future White Paper the figure might be higher or lower. But what it is intended to show here is the figure in the White Paper in relation to a number of different assumptions about growth and investment.
Mr. Pardoe: I am grateful to the right hon. Gentleman. Although I was under a somewhat different impression, as, indeed, were others when they saw the table, I thought that that was so from the right hon. Gentleman's earlier remarks, and he has now amplified them. But in that case all I can say is that the bottom line in the table shows a totally meaningless figure, because it is impossible to suppose that, if one had

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a 5 per cent. growth rate over five years, even a Conservative Government would not substantially increase the amount of money going into the public services. At least, I take it to be incredible. Perhaps this Government might decide that there was some absolute level, though I think that highly unlikely. Therefore, private consumption is not likely to be able to rise by as much as the table tends to indicate.
In deciding what the Government can or cannot afford, we need also to know —we do not get this from the White Paper—not only what programmes were adopted but what programmes were discarded. In addition, we need to know which of the programmes adopted will be deferred if economic conditions necessitate, and which of those discarded will be taken off the shelf, dusted down, and brought back into the programme if conditions are better than the Government predict.
In assessing each programme, wt need to know the underlying assumptions. In one Government White Paper, it is impossible to give all the underlying assumptions behind every figure. For example, I am aware that there is a Command Paper on education which, to a certain extent, gives the underlying assumptions behind the changes in priorities which the right hon. Gentleman brought to our notice. But here I refer, first, to the table on Post Office expenditure. I am not aware of any Government document which gives the underlying assumptions behind the increased projections of expenditure on telecommunications. I am aware, however, that there is market research information available publicly which tends to show that the growth of demand for telecommunications in this country will be about 15 per cent. to 20 per cent., that is, nearly twice as fast as the expenditure figures indicated in the White Paper. That means either that an awful lot of people who want telephones will not be able to have them, or that the Government will have substantially to increase that figure in the years ahead.
Next, I turn to the table on trade, industry and employment. We see here an admission of the nonsense of the lame duck policy. The bogus cuts in the total of public expenditure announced in 1970 and 1971 have had to be reversed. This
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is amply demonstrated in that table. I should have thought that common sense would tell the Government that one cannot suddenly withdraw £1,000 million from industry without causing disaster. At least, we now have a more credible programme.
I find it odd that there is nothing shown against the item, "Selective assistance general powers", that is, non-regional assistance. It occurs to me—it may well occur to the right hon. Member for Battersea, North (Mr. Jay) when he returns—that this is so because such general assistance would not be possible under our terms of entry into the EEC.
According to the item "Nationalised industries special assistance", the nationalised industries will not need special assistance after 1975. What will be done? The nationalised industries are building up enormous losses as a result of the Government's freeze on their prices. Presumably, at some point or other, those losses will have to be recouped, unless they are to be written off through the taxation system. Perhaps that is it, and the taxpayer will be asked to do it. But to imply, as the table does, that there will be no need for special assistance in direct grants to subsidise the nationalised industries after 1975 is very odd.
Also in the table on page 34 we see the phasing out of the regional employment premium. It is not good enough to say, "We intend to phase out all types of incentive to labour in the regions". Inevitably, the Government will find that it is necessary for cash grants to be made specifically to encourage employment in the regions, rather than just capital incentives. I doubt the suggestion inherent in the item on the regional employment premium, and I should not mind betting that there will have to be further provision in some other way.
I turn now to the table on surface transport, page 52. I find disturbing the implication here that support for nationalised industries on such things as the unremunerative branch lines of British Rail, which are desirable on social grounds, is assumed to decline, the £112 million in 1972–73 becoming £68 million in 1976–77. It is most unlikely that the number or cost of such services will diminish. It is almost impossible to imagine that that will happen, and

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in the natural course of events the cost is likely to increase.
The implication here is that the Government are planning a drastic cut in such services, that they will simply phase out all the marginal loss-making unremunerative branch lines. Perhaps the Government would care to come clean about it. Are we to take that from the table? I can see no other implication in the figures.
Mr. Patrick Jenkin: I am sorry to interrupt again, but, with great respect, the hon. Gentleman is drawing a number of conclusions which are not well founded. I am sure that he has read the paragraphs underneath the tables, which explain a great deal of the matters to which he is referring. For instance, paragraph I on page 52 shows that the make-up of that figure of £112 million includes a great deal more than the so-called grants to unremunerative lines. The conclusion which the hon. Gentleman draws cannot be drawn.
Mr. Pardoe: All right. But that is a different question. The Government may say that I should not draw these conclusions from the figures given here. But I have drawn them, as I am entitled to do, and the only way they can counter the point which I have made is by saying specifically that they do not intend to cut back that part of the figure which goes to unremunerative transport services. The right hon. Gentleman did not say that. I hoped that he would. Very intelligently, if I may say so, he refrained from denying the point. Perhaps it will be denied in the winding-up speech.
I turn next to the table on page 74, social security. These figures, like all the others, are at today's prices, and the increases shown are simply demographic increases—in other words, multiplied up by the number of people who are likely to be receiving such services. As far as I can see—the right hon. Gentleman may correct me if I am wrong, though I assure him that I have read the small print—there is no provision for increases in real value. In other words, in this table we are concerned simply with increases necessary to maintain or restore purchasing power, but we are not given those increases which will give those receiving these benefits, particularly
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national insurance pensioners, a rising share of the resources available.
Mr. Bruce-Gardyne: Would it not assist the progress of the hon. Member's speech if he recognised that this public expenditure White Paper, like all others, makes the assumption that existing policies will be pursued in the future, and that it makes no assumption about future policy changes?
Mr. Pardoe: That is a fair point. Unfortunately that is one of the fallacies of the White Paper approach because no Government can assume that they will not raise the real value of pensions. I have pressed consistently in debates in the House that the Government should have a policy for increasing progressively the real value of the old age pension. If there was such a policy it would be taken into account in these figures. I have the same reservations as were expressed from the Opposition Front Bench, about the increasing share given to defence and the decreasing share given to housing. It is an extraordinary commentary on the Government's priorities.
It appears that the rise in estimated total expenditure, which is sharp in the short term—4·6 per cent. in 1973–74—and will reduce thereafter, is based on an over-optimistic assumption by the Government. It assumes that the Government's plans will be entirely successful but industrial investment is still highly depressed and if we are to get the economy going and if the Government's counter-inflation policy works, it is virtually certain that far more of our resources will have to be pumped into public expenditure. That is a major reservation which must be expressed in any discussion of Government forecasts on public expenditure at present.
5.42 p.m.
Mr. Edward du Cann: Most of the points raised by the hon. Member for Cornwall, North (Mr. Pardoe) seem to be questions addressed to the Government and soliciting answers from the Minister of State, and are therefore not necessarily matters to which I should refer. However, I shall take up one of his comments. He said that perhaps we underestimated the importance of the relationship between revenue and expenditure. I agree entirely. I hope if the Select Committee on Public Expenditure

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under the distinguished chairmanship of my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South (Sir H. d'Avigdor-Goldsmid) has an opportunity to study the matter more deeply, in addition to its other heavy labours, that we shall all benefit considerably from that study. The Chief Secretary has already paid tribute to my hon. Friend. I was shocked to read in the newspapers a day or two ago of his impending retirement from Parliament. I am sure that we all feel that Parliament will be a poorer place when he is no longer with us.
He was right when he said that this, the fourth of the series of White Papers, with its supporting documents, was one of the best we have had. Great credit is due to the Chief Secretary for that and for all the hard work that he has put into it. The White Paper is a notable advance on its predecessors and the House may well pay tribute also to the handbook on methodology which will be of substantial use in illuminating and setting a pattern for our debates in the future.
One other document is worth acknowledgment. My hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South referred to the hard and devoted work which is being done by the General Sub-Committee under the new chairmanship of the hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne (Mr. Sheldon), to whom we all wish success. I am sure that he will be the first to acknowledge the hard work of all the Members on the Expenditure Committee and that politics apart, much is due to his predecessor, Mr. Dick Taverne, who did a fine job.
I start from the profound and unshakeable belief, which is fortified by experience, that the power of the executive has increased and is increasing. It should be contained and we as Members of Parliament have a duty to contain it. I am sure that I carry all my hon. Friends with me and I hope to carry the support of the Liberal Party also in that. Judging by a recent speech by the Leader of the Opposition I am glad to think that I have his powerful support also.
Before we go lecturing our European Parliamentary counterparts on how to behave it would be as well to devote a deal of attention to putting our own house in order. Any competent administration should welcome such a process.
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No criticism of efficient and effective government is intended thereby, only its reinforcement, its surer success.
One of the refreshing features of the debate is the feeling that I have that the Chief Secretary and officials of the Treasury agree with that view. I hope that my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South will agree from his experience that the Public Expenditure Committee had no better allies than the Chief Secretary and the officials and Ministers at the Treasury, in doing its work.
I am no disciple, as I have remarked in other contexts, of the great Dr. Pangloss about whom Voltaire wrote. I do not believe that:
"all is for the best in the best of possible worlds."
Now I do share the opinion of the cynic who says that all Governments are bad and that some are merely a great deal worse than others. I put it more positively. I think that no Government is so good that it cannot be improved upon, and good though the present administration are, that certainly applies to my right hon. Friends.
Parliament is more often consulted after the Government have made a policy decision than before. That is wholly wrong. Take, for instance, the rise in total expenditure which is set out in the White Paper. The figures for 1972–73 show an increase of more than 6 per cent. over the previous year. Measured at constant prices the increases presupposed for 1973–74 will show a rise of over 5 per cent. over the previous year. I do not recall a proposition to that effect ever being put to the House in that form. I do not recall a proposition to that effect ever being agreed by the House.
Our debates here are more often post mortems than evaluations and discussions of future programmes. We usually have too little analytical information in front of us in spite of the advances which are being made and to which I have already paid tribute. This White Paper is the exception rather than the rule.
Parliament lacks the ability to follow through individual programmes as they mature and the ability to measure in modern terms—and measurement is a complex matter, as any prominent industrialist will confirm—their true effectiveness.

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As my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South was commenting, we have an immense funding requirement. The public have the impression, quite wrongly as we all know, that Government expenditure is out of control. That is not so. As my hon. Friend the Chief Secretary said, the reasons for its growth are legitimate and honourable, but it has grown much faster than expected. I have no hesitation in expressing the purely private and personal view that the total of expenditure is rising too fast, and that it is too great a proportion of the gross domestic product.
The substantial continuing rise in Government expenditure that the White Paper discloses may look small enough in proportionate terms, as my hon. Friend the Chief Secretary said, but it is pretty big in absolute terms. It has profound implications, one of which was mentioned by my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South. It will be necessary to cut back on consumption. It may be necessary to cut back private expenditure of a number of different kinds, and possibly even to increase taxation. I do not know, but it may be possible, and that is one of the matters we require to have brought out in the debate.
There are two needs, as I see it. One follows from the other. First, Parliament should be better informed about these matters. Second, the Executive should be made more responsible to Parliament.
The question is, how? Should there be new tools for Parliament? Some are perhaps appropriate. For example, a Select Committee on taxation has been recommended. I think we can learn another lesson from Europe, that we should use some of the existing tools much better than we do. What is the point of having power if we do not use it? The truth is, alas, that we do not use it as effectively as we might.
The way to command the despot, however benevolent, however well-meaning, is as history has taught us, to control the purse-strings. Every child remembers the struggles to that end that are the matter of our Parliamentary history. But that is just what our modern Parliament does not do. To debate a money resolution
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is the exception, when it should be the rule. Debates ostensibly about supply are not about supply; rather, in our voting the money for supply, they are merely debates about current policy. That may well be important and significant, as we saw yesterday, but they are not debates about money.
Last year's debate on the White Paper played to a nearly empty House. I remember a book written by a former young editor of The Times, young like today's editor of The Times, a book called "Opportunity Knocks Once". That title is profoundly relevant to most forms of human endeavour. Fortunately, in Parliament and in parliamentary matters we often have a second opportunity. Each year, in effect, we have a new chance. I hope that we shall take it.
The tone of the speech of my hon. Friend the Chief Secretary set us off extremely well. If I may repeat what I said last year, this debate should be the most serious event in the political calendar. I suggested then that perhaps if the debate is a discussion of the Government's whole strategy and priorities it is appropriate that the most senior Ministers should introduce it and be present at it. I still believe that to be true. It is right, as the article by Mr. Jay in The Times today pointed out, that many people are put off discussions of money matters because they think that they are complex and difficult to follow and understand. They realise that modern techniques of measurement are extremely complicated, and they do not want to be bothered.
I sometimes think that in this modern age politics have become too much a question of figures. To me, politics are matters of the heart and ideals just as much as of practice. It is exactly these philosophical matters and attitudes that we should be discussing today as well as the naked figures.
Mr. Dalyell: May I be forgiven the observation that, if the right hon. Gentleman thinks that the most senior Ministers should be present at this debate, he happens, fortuitously or otherwise, to be in a position to require it? If anyone can get a Conservative Prime Minister to come to a debate, it must be the Chairman of the 1922 Committee. Therefore, may we as politely as possible express

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the gentle hope that next year the Prime Minister will be called upon by the backbench Committee to be present?
Mr. du Cann: Our procedures evolve, and I have no doubt that we shall continue to make progress. But perhaps I might ask for help from the hon. Gentleman. If he thinks that the general gist of what I am saying is sensible right and wise, and I flatter myself that perhaps he did, judging from the tone of his intervention——
Mr. Dalyell Mr. Dalyell indicated assent——
Mr. du Cann: —next time such a suggestion is made in this Chamber and is then ridiculed by that ordinarily most wise and sagacious writer in The Times, David Wood, I hope that the hon. Gentleman will leap to its support in the correspondence columns.
If we are debating national priorities over the next five years; the Government's strategy, whether they are right to spend so much on defence and, as has been suggested, so little on housing—that is part of the gravamen of the Opposition's complaint; and if in every aspect of the national endeavour we are discussing what we spend and do not spend, it is important to emphasise that the debate is a matter of the highest importance.
Of course, if we are to have a meaningful discussion we cannot in such a debate touch upon each detail of the Government's activity as measured by expenditure. But we can, and I believe should, establish a two-tier precedent. It seems to me that that is what we are working towards, and I welcome it. In this annual debate we should demand from the Government of the day an explanation of their strategy, their philosophy, and the chief directions of their policy. We should examine and discuss the justifications for its direction and compare the policy with the alternatives. Then the detail—the comparison of this alternative with that, the measurement of success or failure, the comparison of out-turn with prediction—would be delegated to the Select Committee on Public Expenditure.
The hon. Member for Cornwall, North said that we cannot expect the public to be really concerned about a movement of half a percentage point here and half a percentage point there. I am not sure
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that I agree. I would certainly agree if the hon. Gentleman said that one of the worries we all have is about the public's apparent lack of interest in the democratic process, our failure perhaps to involve the public more with our proceedings. I believe that to see senior and informed distinguished back benchers, like my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South, and other hon. Members on both sides, quizzing the Treasury Knights and Ministers would be a first-rate public spectacle, something to which we might even consider introducing the television cameras as an example of Parliament effectively at work. Be that as it may, the two-tier division is the thing I am chiefly recommending.
It is a matter for my hon. Friend to decide, but there is a need for that Select Committee to be backed by an adequate staff. The Committee has had devoted service from its servants, but I would measure them not in twos and threes but in tens and more, with all the machinery that it needs to do its technical work. Then its reports must be allowed priority in debating time in the House.
The control of expenditure is the foundation on which the power, such as it is, of Parliament rests. Each of us fights many battles in this House. The hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne was implying that the most relevant battle is always the party political battle. I am not sure I agree with that. The Government of the day versus the Opposition of the day is, I suppose, the most obvious of the battles. But so trivial is much of the reporting of this place that the public might be forgiven for believing that nothing else occurs.
I suggest that the shared objectives which unite the back benchers in the House are more significant in the parliamentary scene than those items which divide us. Should we not chiefly in this debate note, recognise and register our determination to impose our will on the Administration of the day in order to enhance its effectiveness? If that is what we do, I shall well rest content.
6.1 p.m.
Mr. David Marquand: It is a privilege to follow the right hon. Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann), not simply because of the distinguished office

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which he holds in his party but because of the part he has played in making the experiment of parliamentary control of expenditure, which has been going on only for a very short time, as effective as I think it has been.
It is a great mistake for people to imagine that, because attendance at these debates has not always been as large as one would have liked, the whole experiment of the Expenditure Committee has in some way been unsuccessful. On the contrary, as the right hon. Gentleman said, the real point of the exercise was for Parliament to be able to get in on the act earlier, before the decisions were preempted. That can be done only by effective committee investigation. In a way the debate is less important than the work of the committees. However, it is far too soon to write off the debate. The debate will become more effective as time goes on, as we have more information flowing in from the committees.
I was disappointed by the tone of what the Chief Secretary said about probing on the part of some of the committees. It is true that there is a limit to the amount of information available for which they can properly ask and which can properly be obtained for them. There is a limit to the resources and manpower available in the Civil Service to deal with their inquiries. We know that. But it is ludicrously wide of the mark to suggest that that limit has anywhere near been reached. We are a long way away from having enough information. It was premature of the Chief Secretary to make that point. If he meant it seriously, it casts rather a pall on the whole exercise and has disturbing implications for the future.
The Chief Secretary was somewhat cavalier in refusing to comment on the memoranda of Mr. Godley, which were published in the minutes of evidence to the General Sub-Committee of the Expenditure Committee yesterday. It was unsatisfactory to say that as they had come out so recently he did not want to say anything about them. The memoranda which Mr. Godley produced to the General Committee, and which were printed in the minutes of evidence, have demonstrated just how gigantically the Government have changed course since they took office.
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It is a shattering and astonishing state of affairs that a Government which came into office pledged to cut down the rate of increase in public expenditure at the very least, and probably to cut down the absolute level of public expenditure as well, should now be about to spend next year £700 million more than the Labour Government had planned to spend in that year. That is a fantastic change of course. It is ludicrous of the Chief Secretary to attempt to brush it aside.
I do not think that any of my right hon. and hon. Friends will quarrel with the Government for increasing public expenditure. One of the central divisions between the two parties in the past has been that we on this side have been in favour of larger expenditure and the Conservative Party has been in favour of less. But the way in which the increase has taken place justifies the terms of the Opposition's amendment. First there was to be a swingeing cut of £700 million in the total for 1974–75. In the last two years we have had an amazing increase of £1,400 million to be spent in that year. That cannot be right. It cannot be right in one year to decide to cut down expenditure by £700 million and three years later to be increasing expenditure by £700 million. That cannot be sensible and it must be damaging to the proper planning of the economy and of the public sector.
However, it is not enough to cast party brick-bats at each other in a debate of this kind. We should inquire why the change of policy has come about and what the implications are for the future. In my view, the implications of the change of policy affect not only the Government but, just as much, the Labour Party. Indeed, I should say that the Labour Party is affected in a very deep sense, as is the whole future of democracy in this country.
Why did the change of policy take place? Why is it that the Government, who were elected to cut down public expenditure, are now increasing it faster than did a Government who believed in increasing public expenditure? Why has there been this change? Part of the reason is that the Government panicked during the recession. However, I do not think that that is the main reason or the most important reason. The most important reason is a much deeper one than a panic which afflicted Ministers in the course of last year.

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The fundamental reason is that when they were face to face with the responsibilities of office and the facts of life, Ministers discovered that it was impossible to keep down the rate of increase in public expenditure unless they were to damage irreparably the social fabric of the country. They discovered that the needs which public expenditure has to satisfy are growing inexorably as a result of demographic factors alone. They discovered that simply to stay in the same place public expenditure has to keep rising, and that if standards, which we all know from our constituency experience to be grossly inadequate, are to be raised, the rate of increase in public expenditure has to be even faster that it has to be for standards to remain at the same level.
That was what the Government discovered when they came into power. They discovered that there was no escape from the facts of life. I hope that we shall now he able, as a result of publication of the White Paper, to stop debating the general question of whether public expenditure should increase. We are all now agreed that it will increase and that that is a feature of the society in which we live. We can now stop the rather sterile debate as to whether it is good or bad to have a large public sector. We have got one and we shall continue to have one.
I think that the Labour Party also has to do some deep thinking as a result of the White Paper. We have to examine some of our assumptions about the public sector and its role in and its relationship to the rest of the economy. In the first place we have to ask ourselves—this is what the debate between the two sides ought to become in future—what public expenditure is for and how satisfactorily it meets the objectives. If it does not meet them, we have to ask what changes are necessary to make sure that it meets them in future.
I put forward two general propositions on that issue. First, I believe that it should become part of the philosophy of the Labour Party that public expenditure should be used deliberately to increase equality in our society to diminish the inequalities which exist between different regions and different social groups. It sounds like a platitude. Most people would probably say that this is what the public sector does already, but can we be satisfied with the extent to which
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public expenditure carries out that objective? I do not think we can.
Any hon. Member who believes that the programmes described in the White Paper are effectively diminishing the inequalities between different regions should come to my constituency and compare the schools there with the schools in a more prosperous part of the country; he should compare the size of the doctors' lists in my constituency with the size of doctors' lists in the South East; he should compare the rate expenditure per head of population that local authorities in my constituency can afford with the rate expenditure of local authorities in more prosperous parts of the country. If he does that, there is no question but that he will find that, to a frightening degree, the money which the Government spend in the name of the public does not diminish the gap between the better-off regions and the better-off sections of the community and the poorer ones but keeps the gap as large as it was before.
Take the interesting figures in the report of the General Committee of the Expenditure Committee dealing with the expenditure per head of population by different regional hospital boards. They appear on page 97. They show, to take an example at random, that the Sheffield Regional Hospital Board, in whose area my constituency lies, spent £16·6 per head of the population in 1971–72 whereas the South-East Metropolitan Hospital Board spent £21·8. Yet one would imagine that the needs of the Sheffield region in terms of poverty and deprivation must be greater than the needs of the South-East Metropolitan region.
That is only one small example of how public expenditure, so far from being operated in an egalitarian fashion, is in some cases, actually widening the gap between the more and the less prosperous parts of the country. There is no doubt that the same pattern would be revealed by different spending programmes if the information were available. But to be sure of this we have to have far more information. I hope that the appropriate Sub-Committees of the Expenditure Committee will continue to press for this. The work done by the General Committee on the relationship of expenditure to needs is only a small beginning. We need to have the same kind of information for all the other spending programmes.

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My second general proposition is that the public expenditure programme ought to be used far more than it is at present consciously and deliberately to protect the quality of life and the quality of the environment. Here too it seems to me that the present pattern of priorities is utterly unsatisfactory. It cannot be right that there should be such an enormous disparity between the projected expenditure on road building and expenditure on the railways, both by way of the nationalised industries' capital investment and in other forms. This cannot be right from the point of view of protecting and safeguarding the environment. We have had an excellent report from a Sub-Committee of the Expenditure Committee on the problems of urban transport. So far as one can see from the White Paper, nothing that it said has had any heed paid to it. Perhaps it was too soon to expect its recommendations to be reflected in this year's White Paper, but I hope very much that we shall see a major change in the priorities as regards road and rail in next year's White Paper.
The last implication that emerges from the White Paper and the various commentaries on it is more worrying. As I have said, it seems to me clear that public expenditure under either party will continue to rise rapidly. I also think that there is little doubt that over a longish period it is likely to rise faster than the gross national product as a whole is likely to rise. As society advances new needs are created which have to be satisfied by public spending rather than by private spending.
But we are now living in a society in which there are enormous pressures to increase private consumption. We have one set of pressures to increase public expenditure, and another set of pressures, generated by advertising and other forces, to increase private consumption. But we cannot satisfy both. If we try to do so, the result is inflation, stop-go and all the other horrors we have become accustomed to. Yet if we curtail the rise in public spending, the result must be, to quote the well-known aphorism, "private affluence and public squalor" and an even greater demand for public expenditure in the future.
It seems to me inescapable that we are approaching a situation where Govern-
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ments must deliberately offset the continuous pressures from advertising and so on which lead to demands for ever more private consumption. This is now one of the central priorities facing us. We cannot go on trying to have our cake and eat it. More and more the cake we have to eat has to be a public cake and therefore we cannot eat as much of the private cake. That means that we have to restrain the forces which constantly push for increases in private consumption. It will be a very difficult job.
6.20 p.m.
Mr. David Price: The House will forgive me if I do not follow the interesting arguments of the hon. Member for Ashfield (Mr. Marquand). I want to make a contribution of my own, and I do not want to detain the House for too long. The constructive part of the hon. Gentleman's speech can be summed up in the words of George Bernard Shaw:
"The lack of public money is the root of all evil".
Many of us are grateful to the Government for the wealth of information which they are giving us in the annual White Papers, upon the forward projection of Government expenditure. I am particularly pleased that the Government, for the first time, have published their assessment of the average annual change of resources and claims over the next five years. Hon. Members generally should be grateful to our colleagues on the Select Committee of Expenditure for having pushed the Government into publishing this assessment, and to the Government for having responded so rapidly. The assessment makes these debates much more meaningful.
Over the years there has been a big improvement in the amount of information given by successive Governments on their forward expenditure. I think that my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South (Sir H. d'Avigdor-Goldsmid), who came into the House at the same time as I did, will agree that in the 18 years we have been here there has been a big improvement.
The question arises how the House can best handle the increasing wealth of statistical information coming from Whitehall. In my judgment, a White Paper of this nature lends itself better to careful

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examination by a Select Committee than to general debate on the Floor of the House. That is not to say that I regard an annual debate upon the Expenditure White Paper as being inappropriate or unnecessary. But the success of the debate depends not only upon the existence of the Select Committee, but upon the quality of its work.
I am not a member of the Select Committee, but I pay tribute to colleagues who serve on it for the time and energy they spend on our behalf in the detailed examination of Government expenditure. This is done quietly, technically in public but out of the main arena of Parliament which is this Chamber. I suspect that those of our colleagues who serve on it get less credit than those who intervene at Question Time with supplementary questions. That is a pity, but the public judge the work of Parliament on the more ephemeral matter of intervention on a supplementary question, ignoring the enormous amount of work that is done in Select Committee. I pay particular tribute to those who chair the Select Committee and the sub-committees, and add my tributes to those which have been paid to my right hon. Friend the Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann) and my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South.
The benefits which flow to Parliament in its attempt to control the executive from a permanent Select Committee rather than an ad hoc committee are twofold. First, it ensures that the examination of public expenditure is a continuous process and, secondly, the Select Committee can develop its own management philosophy about public accountability. I shall come later to this desirable feature.
The Opposition amendment refers to
"belated and unplanned increases"
in public expenditure. That public expenditure is increasing more rapidly than was forecast a year ago is indisputable, and should not be a matter for divisison between the two sides of the House. According to the latest Treasury figures on page 34 of the Expenditure Committee's report of 24th January, which slightly update the figures in the White Paper, the change in the change between 1971–72 and 1973–74 is put at £1,354 million. To get this figure into perspective, we must view it in the context of the total level of public expenditure for 1973–74
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which amounts to £29,182 million. If my mathematics is correct that is an increase of about 4·6 per cent. over the earlier estimate. The Treasury figures make clear that the increase is due to deliberate policy changes rather than to serious mistakes in estimating or, as might be suggested, a general bumbling along. That view is supported by Mr. Godley, the specialist adviser, in his report to the Sub-Committee.
That shows that the techniques of estimating future public expenditure are a good deal better than is generally imagined and are now certainly better than they have been. That does not exactly support the Opposition's argument that the Government have acted imprudently and without due deliberation. To challenge policy changes is perfectly fair but to say that this has occurred in a haphazard manner is far from the truth.
From table 1.3 in the White Paper, which gives a breakdown of the increases for 1972–73, it can be seen that most of the increased expenditure was due to additional counter-cyclical measures, greater expenditure on regional development, further assistance to the nationalised industries and improved social security. All this the Labour Party wishes to condemn. From the speech made by the hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne (Mr. Sheldon) I assume that a Labour Government would not use public expenditure as a counter-cyclical device. My attempts to question the hon. Gentleman—
Mr. Sheldon: Will the hon. Gentleman say what I said? I have said nothing against the use of public expenditure as a counter-cyclical device. I pointed out the limitations, as described in the 7th Report of the General Sub-Committee and said that the use of the device by the Government did not satisfy the requirements laid down by the Treasury.
Mr. Price: When I first intervened in the hon. Gentleman's speech he was criticising the Government for increasing expenditure under the headings I have mentioned, which are all in the broad category of counter-cyclical measures.
Mr. Sheldon: That is £200 million out of £1,200 million.
Mr. Price: With great respect, it is substantially more. If the hon. Gentleman looks at table 1.3, he will see that it is a great deal more than that.
Mr. Sheldon: If the hon. Gentleman looks at table 1.3 he will see that the counter-cyclical measures account for £177 million for 1973–74, the year under discussion, and that the total is £1,256 million. Our specialist adviser came to the conclusion, taking into account one or two other matters, that the counter-cyclical measures amounted to about £200 million out of a total of £1,200 million.
Mr. Price: I am taking an earlier year, 1972–73. If the hon. Gentleman will look down table 1.3, he will see that the next heading "Industrial and regional development policies" which accounts for £81 million in the current year and £294 million next year is certainly part of a broad counter-cyclical strategy.
Mr. Sheldon: No.
Mr. Price: Of course it is. I will argue with the hon. Gentleman afterwards, and convince him that I am right and he is wrong. The effect of giving regional aid is not a counter-cyclical policy because the very point the hon. Gentleman argued, and which I have argued, of regional disparity——
Mr. Sheldon: It has nothing to do with it.
Mr. Price: Of course it has.
Mr. Speaker: Order. This is debate not an argument. The arguments should take place elsewhere.
Mr. Price: I find it difficult to argue with an hon. Member who says it is one thing and then says that it is the other.
Mr. Speaker: Order. All I am in favour of is a little counter-cyclical brevity.
Mr. Price: I find it difficult to understand how the Opposition can object to the increases that have taken place in Government expenditure over the period in question. It seemed that any criticism that might arise would come from this side of the House rather than the other. We all have reason to be concerned about the steady march for-
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ward of public expenditure. We are in grave danger of creating a situation in which public expenditure increases march ahead of increases in real resources.
If I am right then we must accept the logical conclusion, namely that we shall not control this irresistible march forward by the illusion that somewhere there are cheese-paring techniques in detail which will make a major impact on the rate of increase. This is an illusion. If any hon. or right hon. Gentleman wishes to bring restraint into these matters it is at the policy level that the influence and power of the House must be exerted. I remind the House that if our continuous and collective influence upon Ministers in charge of spending Departments—and nowadays no doubt for admirable reasons are not all Departments spending Departments?—is to spend more we must not complain if public expenditure continues to rise both in absolute and proportionate terms.
We must have the courage to face up to the consequences of simple addition. Equally, if we feel that public expenditure is in danger of increasing too rapidly then it behoves us to oppose at least some of the individual increases in departmental programmes.
I realise that there are some hon. Members who have strong ideological views about rising public expenditure. They believe that is either per se good or per se bad. I must admit to taking a more agnostic view which will vary according to the circumstances of any year. Obviously my judgment will depend upon the content of any individual programme, the sum of which produces the global figure for public expenditure. It will also depend on the state of the economy, the resource demands of public expenditure and the Chancellor's total budgetary position. Nevertheless, all experience shows that Ministers and Departments have to work very hard to contain the increases in public expenditure within manageable proportions.
Within this continuous review, by Departments and Parliament, there is a real danger of public expenditure running away with itself. We are all exposed to the revolution of rising expectations. The cause of public economy is not popular these days in the House. That is why those few hon. Members—I admit that I am not one—such as my hon. Friends

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the Member for South Angus (Mr. Bruce-Gardyne) and for Oswestry (Mr. Biffen), who are ever vigilant about increasing public expenditure, play such an important part in our affairs.
I admit openly that I am not naturally a good economiser because I prefer doing things to not doing things. Doing things for the public nearly always seems to require further public expenditure. I suspect that many of us support the broad concept of containing public expenditure but are reluctant to apply that concept to the particular. In this I am reminded of the famous saying of St. Augustine, "Give me chastity and self-restraint, but do not give it to me yet." That is so frequently our attitude to increased public expenditure. In principle, we wish to restrain it, but when it comes to the particular, we want rather more of it. I admit to being as guilty as any one.
That takes me briefly into the question how we can judge the validity of individual programmes and whether they are achieving their objectives. For some years I have felt that some system of input-output accounting tied to programmed objectives was necessary, in addition and supplementary to, the traditional public expenditure accounting methods.
I am in complete agreement with the views of the Expenditure Committee in its Third Report. More particularly, I was pleased that the General Purposes Sub-Committee had been following this up and, as I judge it, getting some response from the Treasury. I hope that we shall have some indication in the windup to the debate that the Treasury is taking this seriously. The hon. Member for Ashfield suggested that there was considerable merit in this method of aproaching public accountability.
I turn to resource demands and join in the praise which has been accorded to the Treasury for introducing for the first time the information contained in Table 1.2. In a perfect world these projected increases in Government expenditure over the next five years would he entirely containable within a target of zero inflation. Whether they are containable in an inflated economy is highly questionable.
As I read it the average increase in the average income of the average person in whole-time employment over the five
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years in question should not be more than about £1·25 per week per year if inflation is to be halted. Is this likely to happen? It is a cautionary thought upon which the House should reflect. I suspect that in our generation we are in grave danger of entertaining material expectations that are far beyond the most optimistic chance of economic reality.
We may excuse ourselves by saying that we are suffering from a well-known condition called lack of money, but in the harsh light of reality that excuse simply does not wash. It is no use expecting some mythical "they" to curb inflation unless we, the masses, start curbing our own demands upon society. Most of us are sinners. I personally plead guilty and I shall in subsequent debates do my best to pay public penance by exercising restraint.
6.38 p.m.
Mr. Gwynoro Jones: The hon. Member for Eastleigh (Mr. David Price) said that he is not a good economiser. That is somewhat dubious bearing in mind that he was the Minister responsible for the abolition of the investment grant system.
Mr. David Price: I had nothing to do with it.
Mr. Jones: If I remember rightly the hon. Member was the Minister in charge of that Bill during the Committee stage at which I was present. However, I will not go into that at the moment. All I know is that the hon. Member was a very good economiser in early-1971.
The right hon. Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann), in a purposeful and important speech, paid a great deal of attention to the valuable contribution of the Expenditure Committee and in particular to the Committee of which my hon. Friend the Member for Ashton-under-Lyne (Mr. Sheldon) is now chairman—the General Sub-Committee—for the way in which it is able to delve deeper into the thinking and attitudes of the Treasury towards public expenditure. It is able to do this better than ever before. As a new member of that Sub-Committee but not of the Expenditure Committee, I have found it an experience not to be missed. Indeed, such scrutiny is something which should be extended to cover most Departments of State.

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A fact of life is that Members of Parliament are asked far too often to investigate events and policies after they have happened. We are asked to study policy-making decisions rather than policy-making proposals. As the right hon. Member for Taunton quite rightly said, in effect we are holding a postmortem on Government decisions rather than taking part in the policy decision-making process and scrutinising intentions and alternatives. To some extent the Select Committee is beginning to play a more useful part in that direction. Clearly there will be a need in the years to come for a greater balance between the executive and the legislature, and between the facilities available to Ministers, with the tremendous agencies that they have at their disposal, and the way in which Members of Parliament have to rely upon their own individual research and study rather than being backed by a staff to provide them with the necessary information in a big way, in order to combat the ever-increasing power of the executive. Indeed I should welcome the day when every Department had a Select Committee investigating its decisions, priorities, policies and expenditure. After all, we are here to make sure that the Government spend their money in the most efficient way and in the best interests of the people, choosing the correct priorities.
In passing, naturally I should welcome a Select Committee on Welsh Affairs. The Welsh Office was established in 1964 with an expenditure of £200-odd million. That will grow by 1974 to £518 million and it will continue to increase. At present we have a Question hour, a Welsh Grand Committee, which to all intends and purposes is mainly a debating arena, and the occasional Welsh debate. But that is the extent of the ability of hon. Members from Wales to question the vast amount of expenditure by one man, the Secretary of State for Wales. The total public expenditure in the Principality has increased over the past 10 years from about £300 million to well over £900 million, yet the facilities available for hon. Members to scrutinise that expenditure are limited. It is true that there is the presence and experience of the Expenditure Committee. But the amount of time that we can devote to the expenditure and policy
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decisions of every Department is small, with the result that we tend to look at a global figure and over a larger canvas.
Today's speech by the Chief Secretary was amazing. Indeed I congratulate Ministers in the present Government, for I cannot comprehend how they can come to this House month in and month out telling their supporters that everything has changed. Their cry before the General Election was that public expenditure was too high, that the Labour Government were spending too much of our resources in the public sector and that if ever a Conservative Government were elected they would prune public sector spending effectively and efficiently.
We used to hear Government supporters talking in terms of investment incentives for industry and of the cash grant system being a waste of resources and administratively costly. We heard their criticisms of Labour's prices and incomes policy. They were policies that a Tory Government would not dream of adopting, so the present Prime Minister said before the election. However, in the past two years Ministers have made announcement after announcement of policy changes in such a way as to lead their supporters to believe that they were natural steps to take. The result has been that right hon. and hon. Members on the Government side have been able to speak, as a number have today, as though the policies now being pursued were after all those which their Government intended to pursue.
Reading previous public expenditure debates I am not sure whether we should not attribute those speeches to another Parliament rather than to this one. On 22nd February 1971 the present Secretary of State for Employment said that when the Government took office in June 1970 they carried out an immediate review which was urgent because we were spending far too much. He said:
"… the Government … carried out an immediate review of public expenditure up to 1974–75 … to concentrate the activities of public bodies on the tasks which they alone can perform, to reduce substantially previous plans for public spending. …"
[HON. MEMBERS: "Hear, hear."] I hear the echoes of "Hear, hear" from right hon. and hon. Gentlemen opposite. More was to come.
The right hon. Gentleman went on to quote a speech that he had made in

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November of the previous year in which he said:
"… industry and commerce feel, with a certain amount of justification, that public sector investment and wasteful public help for private lack of enterprise is taking too much; with the result that the private sector takes the burden in falling profit margins and credit squeezes while the public sector remains relatively unchecked and sometimes inadequately controlled."—[OFFICIAL REPORT, 22nd February 1971;l Vol. 812, c. 119–122.]
We shall see at ten o'clock whether those cries of "Hear, hear" become crosses. They rarely do in this House, but we shall see what happens.
Clearly we are at the stage where, with the economy being administered in the way it is, something has to give. We have a rapid increase in public expenditure and a rapid increase in inflation, even though it is not on the scale that it was at one time last year. We have an increase in private consumption, and clearly we are heading for a balance of payments deficit in a big way. All this is clear to everyone, and therefore this debate is important in the sense that something has to go.
If the Government intend to restrain personal consumption by increasing taxation, they will come face to face with their prices and incomes policy and any squeeze that they put on personal consumption will probably be unfair in the light of that policy.
The other option is to cut public expenditure. The Chancellor of the Exchequer increased it rapidly at the end of 1971. Surely he does not intend to say to his backbenchers, after asking them to vote as they did, "We have somersaulted so many times that one more will do no harm."
I am sure that my hon. Friend the Member for Ashton-under-Lyne was not criticising the growth in public expenditure. The burden of our case on this side of the House is that there has not been a planned growth of public expenditure. Our complaint is not that public expenditure is too high. It is that the Government came into office, did untold damage by reducing public expenditure and now wish to increase it. Indeed, I believe that the Conservative Party's announcement before the election that cash grants to industry would be abolished did tremendous damage to regional development.
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True to their philosophy, at the beginning of 1971 the Government carried through a major reduction in public expenditure. We had £1 million being saved as a result of the imposition of museum charges. We had the measly, paltry sum that the Government announced they would save on free school milk and school meals and various other social service charges which were said to be crucial to our economy. In their panic over the past two years, the Government have been obliged to spend hundreds of millions of pounds more than they ever thought would be necessary and which they never intended. That is the burden of our criticism of the Government. They came to power determined to reduce public expenditure but have been obliged through force of circumstances to adopt a very different attitude.
One has only to look at the situation today and at what is still needed to see why public expenditure will continue to increase. We have problems of slum clearance and derelict land clearance. We need major environmental improvements. We need to correct the imbalances between the regions, between the different sectors of our community, between our urban and rural areas and in the facilities that are provided. As the Government have discovered in the past two years, reductions in public expenditure are not the right way to proceed. So we have the astounding change of heart leading from a reduction of £942 million announced in 1970 to an increase in 1971 of £482 million and in December 1972 to a still further increase of £1,213 million. The Minister of State must tell us the reason for the drastic change of course and he must also say whether it is his Government's intention to continue on those lines.
Mr. Ian Lloyd: Since the problem which the hon. Member is describing—and in this context his attack is fair—is common virtually to the free democratic societies in the West, would he not be tempted to conclude that our problem, as in all such societies, is that the powers and the pressures behind public expenditure of all kinds are infinitely greater than those powers which any Government, whether of his party or of mine, use in an attempt to apply restraint?
Mr. Jones: Both my hon. Friend the Member for Ashfield (Mr. Marquand) and I made quite clear our view that this trend will continue for many years. One cannot foresee the time when those pressures will ease, but the present Government, on coming to office, did not take that view, whatever they may say now. It is an irony of life that my party when in Government while genuinely believing in public sector expenditure was forced, due to economic constraints and the major economic problems with which it had to contend in most of those years, to curtail its desires in that direction, while the Conservative Party, whose members believe that public sector expenditure is too large for the economy and are committed to a smaller public sector has relied on public expenditure to solve its problems of rising unemployment and falling investment.
Whatever view we may take of the "contingency reserve", and whatever aspect of change in Government expenditure we may consider, the major reason for the tremendous increase in public expenditure now—and as it will continue for the next few years—is totally attributable to the Industry Act. Regional grants up to 1976 will take £738 million and selective regional assistance over five years will take £150 million. At the same time investment grants, which the Government inherited from the Labour Government, will take £646 million. The total is over £1,500 million and I shall direct my attention for a moment to that total because clearly such a massive figure cannot be lightly dismissed.
Coming as I do from West Wales which is dependent on cash assistance for industry, I do not say that this sort of policy is not needed but the Minister must tell us why his Government changed their minds. The policy is of cash grants of £850 million over the next four or five years, but when the Government came to office their basic aim was to stop such cash grants. The Minister must tell us why cash grants are now considered to be one of the best ways of solving the present problems, because the cash grant system is a major ingredient of the increase in public expenditure.
I will not indulge in a mass of quotations, but we know that in 1970 the Chancellor of the Exchequer was kicking up a fuss about cash grants, speaking of
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their administrative complications, their cost of operation, the number of civil servants involved and so on. He showed, at least to his own satisfaction, that the tax system was much better. I point out again that the hon. Member for Eastleigh as a member of the Standing Committee concerned defended the policy of abolishing cash grants, so I am sure that he as well as I will expect to be told why the Government now think that cash grants are better. I am sure that the hon. Member will be very interested to know, because the explanation could well tip the balance in determining how free-minded hon. Members vote later this evening.
I believe it to be quite clear that one of the main requirements at the present time is a deep and thoroughgoing study of regional development assistance. For far too long we have relied far too much on giving cash grants to the manufacturing sector, yet it can be seen that over the last 20 years the job-creating sector has been the service sector. In the last 20 years it has provided 2 million more jobs while in the same period the manufacturing sector has provided only 200,000 jobs in the United Kingdom. Therefore, if regional development and improvement is to mean anything it means that we must redirect our assistance or bring in assistance to the service sector.
Mrs. Elaine Kellett-Bowman: Was that why the hon. Member's Government penalised the service sector by the imposition of SET?
Mr. Jones: The hon. Lady is making a very fair point, but my argument is that no Government have hitherto made an effective and efficient study of regional development so as to make sure that the way in which we spend this vast sum of money is the best way available. I wish not only that the manufacturing sector be considered as a means of regional development but that the service sector also should be used as a weapon of correcting regional imbalance.
The reality is that when talking of regional imbalances we should bear in mind that over the last 20 years the service sector has been the biggest job creating sector and yet, as The Guardian said a few months ago,
"Existing and new office work is overwhelmingly concentrated in the south-east which,

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with about 38 per cent. of the employed population of England and Wales, has 59 per cent. of all the people employed in insurance, banking, and financial services, 52 per cent. of employees, and 57 per cent. of those in other professional services."
It will be seen that the imbalance is heavily in favour of the South-East and when we consider the problem in terms of regional imbalance that fact must be brought back into consideration.
The £1,500 million which is the present total figure for attracting industry to development areas may well have to go much higher after a study of methods, because we are now confronted with various other factors over the next four or five years. We have, for instance, the British Steel Corporation's proposals. There are 18,000 jobs in jeopardy in Wales. Although that involves north-east and south-east Wales, the significant point is that it is a crushing blow to the whole economy of the Principality.
Being a Member for west Wales, I know that although the Labour Government spent £1½ million a week to attract industry it did not come into west Wales as it should have done. That was probably at an easier time of employment prospects than now. If no industry would come then with that sort of incentive, how much more difficult will it be now for north-west and south-west Wales to attract industry when there will be footloose labour available in south-east and north-east Wales as a result of the major redundancies in the next few years? Therefore the Government will have to consider spending more in Wales to attract industry, set up a regional development bank and introduce other policies.
There must be a major reconstruction of this massive figure of aid for the regions. We must think in more radical and positive terms. Indeed it would possibly save money if the Government dispersed their own factories and offices to the regions. The Labour Government did that and thereby created 11,000 new jobs in Wales. That, by the way, is more than the present Government have created in the last two and a half years with a tremendous increase in expenditure.
There are many other aspects of this matter on which one could speak. However when the Minister replies I hope that
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he will devote his speech to telling us not only that we are on the right tracks, but why in his opinion the Government thought it essential to start on a massive programme of public expenditure reductions, and then, in the last two years, to go berserk to the point where it seems that they do not know what they are doing.
7.2 p.m.
Mr. Hugh Fraser: I should like to turn to the aggregate question of the Estimates rather than the particular on which the hon. Member for Carmarthen (Mr. Gynoro Jones), with great fluency, displayed a real Welsh non-political attitude in his powerful attack on SET, brought in by the Labour Government, and its effect on the service industries in particular.
The hon. Member for Ashfield (Mr. Marquand), my right hon. Friend the Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann), the Chairman of the 1922 Committee, and my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South (Sir H. d'Avigdor-Goldsmid) raised the great question that this debate is of importance not just for the figures, but for the moral and ethical objectives which should be set out by the Government.
Looking at the White Paper, although we have some idea of the amount of work which went into it, the problem is that a lot of these thoughts and deliberations come from a period when the true problem of the country was not fully revealed either to Ministers or to the public in general.
I believe that ethically and morally the greatest danger to the United Kingdom today is not unemployment, but inflation. The problem is not of public squalor against public affluence. The real issue is the danger of the public and private disaster.
It is now 26 years since I last addressed the National Assembly of Uruguay. I had the honour so to do with the right hon. Member for Fulham (Mr. Michael Stewart), the former Member for Wednesbury, who alas is no longer with us but was famous for being called "featherbed Evans". We had the honour of addressing that great assembly at the time that the Socialist Government devalued the £ for the first time since the war. So we addressed it in difficult circumstances.

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At that time, inflation in Uruguay was running at a rate of 10 per cent. Between 1962 and 1972 the rate of inflation accounted for a rise of 6,400 per cent. in the cost of living.
Last year the rate of inflation in this country was probably running at 11 per cent to 12 per cent. My right hon. and hon. Friends on the Treasury Bench may not be prepared to admit it, but it was in that region.
Yesterday we discussed housing. If one projects now a gentleman or lady who is fortunate enough to buy a council house, its value in 60 years will probably be £200,000 at the present rate of inflation. It is in these terms that we should discuss the qualitative judgment of the Government's proposals.
One of the Government's objectives is to reduce the rate of inflation to about 7 per cent. or 8 per cent. As a target, 7 per cent. or 8 per cent. is not good enough. Unless we have a much lower target it is conceivable that we shall move into the sort of area of public finance and of public and private squalor to which my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South referred. I can give the Government some good views on how to raise money in South America. There are many methods when bank rate is running at 23 per cent., and that just about makes up for the inflation rate.
It is only proper that we should look at some of the implications of the White Paper on Public Expenditure. Our inflation problem is obviously of a cost-plus and demand-pull kind. Our inflation rate is also greatly influenced by our inevitable importation of inflation from overseas because we are so dependent on world primary products and on the prices of imports. Therefore, the demand-pull effect of Government should be most seriously considered. Undoubtedly, it does and must add to the rate of inflation. We need more justification for the idea that we should have a rate of Government expenditure rising over these first few years of about 6 per cent. When we carry forward the programmes which were not spent last year the rate this year will be about 6 per cent., not dropping at the rate which is expected next year, again because of the non-expansion and pushing forward of programmes even
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further. This rate needs more justification than it has had so far.
It would be helpful if the Government were to do two things. It is very important, when we talk about a net borrowing requirement, that there should be a clear division between investments which are in the national commercial interest and those on which there can be no economic return. I refer to investments in the nationalised industries, whether in coal, steel, telephones, and so forth. This borrowing requirement should be separated, because it is an essential borrowing requirement. If it were not for the effect of nationalisation, a great deal of this money could be raised from the private market or from overseas. Perhaps my right hon. Friend will tell us how much is being raised overseas for the finance of nationalised industries. When the Labour Government were in office I did something to facilitate this in trying to raise—and I did raise—money for various councils which borrowed abroad. I believe that there should be this division in the account between what I call purposeful economic investments and investments which are part of the State and on which there can be no economic return.
I know that the Treasury is brilliant as an accountant, but it is not a manager, and one of the things that we are missing today, both in public and in local authorities, is management. The amount of waste that goes on in both local and national expenditure is extraordinary. This has been shown up to some extent by men like Sir Derek Rayner and others who have come in to help the Government in their purchasing of military equipment. There should be built up a class of civil servant and local authority officer who understand purchasing and procurement, because at the moment there is great wastage in these matters.
Having made those two suggestions to the Government, I return to the question of aggregate demand. The aggregate demand proposed by the White Paper is too high and must have an inflationary effect which can only tend to feed the flames of inflation which is coming from the cost push of union or labour demand and the imported inflation cost which we see inevitably driving up the rate of inflation.

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We must look at this again. I shall not go into the detail of the programmes, because here again there comes the question of choice and, as General de Gaulle rightly said, to choose is to govern. What we have to decide is whether it is morally right to subsidise the nationalised industries, or whether it would not be more effective to use that money to subsidise food. Those are questions that need to be debated.
A great deal more money is to be spent on the police force. Whether it is right or wrong to arm the police, and whether it is right or wrong to bring back hanging, are issues that have to be debated. They are moral issues—I shall not say whether they are right or wrong—in the same way as are the issues of subsidising food or steel. We have to decide on the aggregate quantity expenditure, and I suggest that that proposed by the Government is far too high.
Before I conclude what I have to say I should like to advise right hon. and hon. Members on both sides of the House to look again at what Keynes said in one of his "Essays in persuasion" published in 1930. The nation faces a number of moral problems. The destruction of so many parts of our society and the distrust between groups are the things that face us today, and the Government's proposed public expenditure should be viewed in this light, because this is the greatest moral issue facing the country.
Tomorrow we shall have an example of Government expenditure which is difficult to justify with any certainty. I am interested not so much in the saving of the Brent geese as in the saving of some geese nearer home. Until there is far greater justification the House of Commons should stand back before it permits this sort of money to be spent.
For a moment I turn to what I believe might be called political. To date, I have tried to be fairly non-political. If phase 1 owed something to President Nixon, I see no harm in phase 2 or 3 echoing his latest determination
"to get Big Government off the people's backs."
That was the Prime Minister's original intention. By the end of this year it will be time for him to return to it. Of course these changes cannot be made at once, but we simply cannot go on with an
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annual net borrowing requirement of more than £3,000 million or with local and public authorities taking more than 51 per cent. of the GDP. The Government themselves are the first source of waste and demand-pull inflation, and there must be some moderation of this programme.
Although these things cannot be achieved overnight, we should set ourselves a target, and that target should be as follows. First, by 1975 the Budget must be in balance and during 1973 and 1974 it should be moving in that direction. Secondly, the White Paper on public expenditure, which undoubtedly will be rewritten—it had better be, because circumstances have changed—should be rewritten in such a way that the maximum overall increase in expenditure does not exceed the increase in the GDP, and that is about 2 per cent. rather than the 2 per cent. to 3 per cent. given here. Thirdly, Parliament's control of Government expenditure must be tightened, as must national control of local expenditure.
My right hon. Friend the Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann) and my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South (Sir H. d'Avigdor-Goldsmid) talked about the need for better machinery, and this machinery has been referred to by hon. Members on both sides of the House. My right hon. Friend said that parliamentary control of supply is the only way in which the, executive can be brought under control. It is no good discussing the sort of moral issues that I was discussing a moment ago. There is nothing like the rope to concentrate a man's mind, and nothing like the axe to make the Government take the right decision.
What is needed is for Parliament to exercise the simplest and most effective mechanism, and that is to control supply. This is feasible. The time has come for humble back benchers to educate their masters and restore a little of our political honour and demand retrenchment and reform.
7.17 p.m.
Mr. Ronald King Murray: I agree with the right hon. Member for Stafford and Stone (Mr. Hugh Fraser) that in discussing a White Paper of this kind we have to remember that

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the background is a series of priorities and that these in turn depend on moral issues and moral decisions.
I follow the right hon. Gentleman to some extent in what he said about the evils of inflation, but in this debate it is important to point out that while we on this side of the House favour public expenditure and welcome the White Paper as representing the Government's conversion—although a death-bed conversion—to the right approach to the running of the economy, we do not have any different view from the right hon. Gentleman about the need to cut down waste. Indeed, a Socialist Government would be, or should be, the first to ensure that public expenditure is not wasteful, and that is common ground between the two sides of the House.
I am rather worried about what the Chief Secretary said in opening the debate. I am worried partly because of his reply to the hon. Member for Cornwall, North (Mr. Pardoe) who said that according to Table 1.2 the only expenditure which does not increase during the five-year span is public investment. I say to the right hon. Member for Stafford and Stone that not all expenditure is inflationary. Capital investment is not to be regarded as inflationary in the same way as consumer expenditure. For that reason I am troubled by the profile which Table 1.2 seems to suggest. It is a profile in which private investment increases, on the 3½ per cent. growth, by 60 per cent. or more—and on the higher rate of growth of 5 per cent. it doubles—while public investment remains static. That worries me.
I think that both sides of the House would agree that one of the difficulties in achieving the growth targets set by successive British Governments has been the lack of adequate investment in new industrial capital. The one part of the economy over which the Government have direct control as to investment policy, whatever their ideology, is the public sector. If we are to have a profile of this kind, in which the Government renounce the most important weapon they can have for the recapitalisation of industry, it seems that we are not adopting the correct profile.
It is in those terms that I criticise the White Paper. It is not for the increase
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in expenditure, because I regard the Government as prodigal sons in this matter, but I welcome them to the table.
I turn to consider a matter raised by various speakers in the debate, and a line I should like to pursue. That is the need for better methods of controlling and monitoring public expenditure, on the one hand, and taxation on the other hand. As the right hon. Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann) pointed out, in what I thought was a very acute observation, there is something wrong with the parliamentary procedure—I think that is what he implied—in which the income aspect is divorced in debate and scrutiny from the expenditure aspect. I agree with his suggestion that there should be a Select Committee on taxation. I should make the further point that any Select Committee on taxation ought to have some kind of combined task of scrutiny in association with the Select Committee on Expenditure. I hope that the future may lie in improving the methods of parliamentary control and scrutiny of these matters.
The first leader in The Guardian of today pointed out, as the Chief Secretary mentioned, that the White Paper has given rise to a certain amount of discussion now although it did not when first published. As The Guardian points out, the White Paper now seems to be regarded as an alarming record of failure in the kind of control I have been talking about over public finance, and also seems to foreshadow the possibility of crises to come.
As has been said already, the present Government came to power on a platform offering instant cuts in public expenditure and a long-term programme of tax relaxation as the master stroke which would put the economy to rights. But of course, it did not. After unemployment had grown, and after inflation had grown, a time came when the Government could no longer conceal their failure. By then the policy was overdue for reversal—two years overdue, I should have thought.
Perhaps I may say in passing that criticism has been focussed from the Government side of the House on the wording of the Opposition amendment. But no criticism can be made of the word "belated". The Amendment refers to "belated increases". If Conservative

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hon. Members complain about insufficiency or waste, what about the waste of these two years during which capital grants were abolished and had to be restored, to mention only one vital aspect of regional policy in which the Government's failure is writ large.
Concerning the words "unplanned increases", again, the absence of Ministers on the Government Front Bench for the debate is eloquent. If these increases had been planned, the Government Front Bench would be overflowing with Ministers who would be only too proud to be godfathers of the policy which had led to this result.
There can be instant reversals of policy, but there cannot be instant reversals of economic trends. As all post-war Governments ought to know by now, public expenditure has a momentum of its own, and changes in direction involve a delay of about a year to make any economic impact. In the result, the Government's course of action has meant that in a time when maximum differential effect is necessary in order to obtain close control over an economy dominated by the present counter-inflationary exercises, the Government find themselves saddled with long-term commitments spelt out in the White Paper in public expenditure which have been undertaken in panic measures designed to reflate the economy when the recession of the past two years was rampant and dominant. The Government's hands are tied, therefore, by a target for public expenditure substantially higher than that set two years ago. There is the "unplanning". That proves it. Their hands are tied not just for the short term but for a five-year term. This growth of expenditure will be supported not merely in economic terms but, what is more important, in social terms, only if there is a high and stable economic growth rate maintained throughout the five-year period.
That brings one to the importance of dealing with inflation. Governments can change their policies. The fact that the White Paper is published and debated today does not commit the Government to maintaining the policies adumbrated in it. They are hypotheses which are worked out. The logic of those hypotheses is giver, in the tables. The Government can change their course again.
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I would put the key point not on the question of inflation or the large amount of public expenditure but on the need for more flexible methods of controlling the economy. It seems that better management of these matters would turn upon more accurate forecasting of economic trends and upon more responsive instruments for raising and reducing the tempo of economic activity. What is certainly clear is that the Tory recipe of instant expenditure cuts and promises of tax concessions is a proven remedy for failure.
It has been said from time to time when matters of this kind have been discussed that the Treasury has examined many times the possibility of more flexible methods of management, but has always tended to the conclusion that the scope for doing that is limited. Certainly the Treasury does not like the kind of scope which is extended by, for example, admitting a rival in the field such as the former Department of Economic Affairs. Nor does its thinking appear to have gone very much beyond the traditional regulators.
The question is, what is the recipe for success? Possibly the question ought to be, is there a recipe for success? But it would be a matter of despair if one did not think that something better could be done in these matters than is already being done. Much though I admire the suggestion that there should be closer scrutiny by the House, which would help greately, matters would progress a little faster if a really powerful investigation were made by an independent body into the need for better forecasting and better and finer instruments of control of the economy.
It is probably a hackneyed suggestion to make to suggest that a Royal Commission should investigate this sort of matter. But if the House feels that the matter is of such importance that it should review its procedure for scrutiny and do so anxiously, if at the same time a Royal Commission or committee of inquiry of substantial power and independence took on that task, it might be possible to probe some of the secrets of the Treasury which do not otherwise get disclosed and to unearth a mechanism which might not be perfect but would at least be better for enabling the kind of control which has been so lamentably

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absent during the past two and a half years, to come into operation.
That has the added advantage that in time, perhaps, questions such as this might become less of a matter of political dispute involving a wide chasm of difference between the two sides of the House, and the country; it may be that a greater measure of agreement could exist between the opposing parties as to long-term economic planning. No one, on either side of the House, would regard that as a bad objective.
7.29 p.m.
Mr. J. Bruce-Gardyne: I am sure that all hon. Members listened with considerable interest to the measured comments of the hon. and learned Member for Edinburgh, Leith (Mr. Ronald King Murray). He declared himself to be a massive fine tuner, and I admire his confidence. I totally lack that confidence.
When the hon. and learned Gentleman talked about a Royal Commission to investigate these matters, I could not help thinking about the question of a suitable membership of such a Royal Commission. I thought that perhaps Mr. Speaker should be in the Chair, and then I would have Lord George-Brown and Lord Balogh, I suppose; and to give some sort of party balance Mr. Aubrey Jones would be a suitable addition, as I believe that he is unemployed at present, which is unfortunate given the present state of our affairs.
As I hone to explain in the concluding part of my remarks, I should have no more confidence in the verdict of a Royal Commission in these matters than I have in the Treasury's ability to indulge in these antics under our present state of knowledge.
At least I find it a great relief to return to the real world this afternoon after the fantasies of the Counter-Inflation Bill last week.
As a new member of the Select Committee on Expenditure I suppose I should speak almost as a maiden in this debate and plead the indulgence of the House, though from one or two of the things I may have to say subsequently I do not think I will deserve it.
It is surprising that to some extent in our discussions today the view seems to
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have been taken that this year's White Paper broke new ground. I do not think it did. I thought it was last year's White Paper that broke new ground, because in last year's White Paper we were introduced to what I would call the theme of curvaceous development. In last year's White Paper we were told for the first time that we would have a lumping of public expenditure in the early years of the cycle covered by the PESC review, and hence by our Public Expenditure White Paper last year.
It was last year that public expenditure in a sense could be said to be likened to the lady from "South Pacific" who was "broad where a broad should be broad". The assumption was—nay, the assurance from the Treasury was—that thereafter she would be slim where a broad should be slim.
In this year's White Paper we have an even more dramatic demonstration of curvaceous development in the years ahead. My hon. Friend the Chief Secretary described it as a distinctive profile. Yes, indeed, a very distinctive profile. Contours are mapped out for us in paragraph 5 on page 9 of this year's White Paper—6·2 per cent. this year instead of 3·9 per cent. as projected in last year's White Paper; 5·3 per cent. in the year to come as against 2·6 per cent. in last year's White Paper; 1·7 per cent. in 1974–75; 1·8 per cent. in 1975–76; and 1·4 per cent. in 1976–77: I cannot quite understand why the Treasury did not put in a minus figure for that year. However I will let that pass. This profile for the years ahead is worthy of a bunny girl from the Playboy Club.
Mr. John Biffen: The Monroe doctrine.
Mr. Bruce-Gardyne: My hon. Friend must elaborate on that in his own speech which we shall all look forward to hearing.
Some of were a little sceptical about the prospective bulges last year. Our scepticism is in no way diminished by the contours described this year. Some of us believed last year that this broad, like other broads, would somehow turn out to run to fat. The distinction is that this year unfortunately we have the proof in the Public Expenditure White Paper itself.

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As a number of hon. Members have pointed out, an analysis of the detailed figures in this year's White Paper shows that what is described as "counter-cyclical" expenditure—namely, expenditure to deal with a particular situation such an unemployment or spare resources at the end of 1971, the beginning of 1972 and carrying on through 1972—accounts for a very small proportion, and a rapidly diminishing proportion, of the total of additions to planned public expenditure from one year to the next; and the bulk of the rest of it consists in the programmes for industrial subvention and regional subvention outlined in the activities of my right hon. Friend the Minister for Industrial Development and in the programmes of assistance to the nationalised industries.
The hon. Member for Ashfield (Mr. Marquand) referred to my right hon. and hon. Friends coming up against the facts of life, the demographic forces and the rest. The hon. Gentleman should study the programme more carefully. These massive increases in public expenditure, beginning in last year's White Paper and continuing in this year's White Paper, have nothing to do with demographic patterns. The Industrial Development Act has nothing to do with demographic patterns. It is not concerned with babies. It is concerned with industries in need of artificial resuscitation. Nothing could be further removed from demographic patterns. The hon. Gentleman would have been better advised to have left that argument out of account.
The other major item is assistance to the nationalised industries. Even where this is identified in the tables it is only a very small part of the story, because it does not allow for the subsidisation of the nationalised industries' prices to allow the nationalised industries to participate in our prices control activities. Those apparently are identified, in so far as they are identified at all, in the contingency reserve.
I was fascinated by the phrase that my hon. Friend the Chief Secretary used about the contingency reserve. He said that the increase in the contingency reserve represented a prudent forecast. My hon. Friend forbore to mention that the reason for the increase overwhelmingly was that provision had to be made,
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so far as the Treasury could make it at present, for that ultimate undefinable—the cost of subsidising the prices of the nationalised industries, an ultimate undefinable which I am interested to see running right through the period which is covered by the White Paper, 1976–77.
I know that we must not make policy assumptions based on forward projects which are entirely intended to reflect existing policy decisions which may be changed in the future. Nevertheless, one has noticed in the past that it has been possible—one sees it again this year—for the forward projects of the cost of, for instance, unemployment benefit to be phased downwards according to assumptions about how present policies may move. We are entitled to speculate about the time span over which my right hon. and hon. Friends intend to pursue a policy of price subsidisation of the nationalised industries in the light of the table in this White Paper.
Mr. Ridley: Has my hon. Friend been able to discover where the interest due on the nationalised industries' capital is shown in the White Paper? In fact, it not being an expenditure but a receipt forgone, I do not think it appears in the White Paper, but it amounts to between £200 million and £300 million, an extra which my hon. Friend should take into account in his argument.
Mr. Bruce-Gardyne: My hon. Friend is absolutely right. All that is provided for in the contingency fund is actual subsidisation. As my hon. Friend rightly says, interest forgone and profit returns related to the targets of the nationalised industries—profit returns forgone—are also not reflected in the White Paper. Therefore, to that extent the White Paper substantially under-estimates what is going on.
There is one further point about the details of the White Paper which I find a little fascinating. I refer to the famous resources table about which we have had a certain amount of comment, Table 1.2. As a new member of the Expenditure Committee, it ill becomes me to say that I sometimes wonder whether the Committee does not calculate the value of information obtained from the Treasury by reference to the reluctance shown to supply it. It therefore doubly ill becomes me to say that that particular comment

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might apply to Table 1.2. What fascinates me about this table is that it takes two hypotheses—3·5 per cent. and 5 per cent.—neither of which bears any relationship to our historical experience. I should have thought that it would be instructive to have a table which gave us a 2 per cent. hypothesis over the period ahead, which gives a rather closer relationship to our past experience.
The conclusions that I draw from all this is that it takes a certain amount of faith, to put it no higher, to believe that the course of public expenditure over the period ahead, and in particular in the two years immediately to come, is one which we shall find it easy to accommodate within the total of resources available to accommodate it. I must say that every time I read the speeches of my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry my anxieties on this score are by no means diminished.
This leaves me with two preoccupations. The first—and this is where we come back to the issue of prices and incomes legislation—is that if under phase 2 we are to experience a restriction of profit margins in the private sector, an expansion of loss margins in the nationalised industry sector and a reflection of higher taxation or higher interest rates to finance the rapid growth of public expenditure in the period ahead, we should be clear that what we should be seeing is a gradual transfer of real resources from the private to the public sector. I must ask my hon. Friends whether they seriously think that this is the right background against which to obtain the sort of improvement in manufacturing investment which we are assured they are so anxious to see.
My second anxiety is about the sort of background which a rapid growth on public expenditure provides for the prices and incomes exercise on which we are engaged. We have no record of such an exercise succeeding elsewhere, but there is no doubt that the example which my hon. Friends have chosen is that of the United States. Well, the one thing that seems to me to be quite clear about the example of the United States is that if the prices and incomes legislative policies pursued by the Nixon Government contributed to the diminution of inflation, they did so only because it was against a back-
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ground of continuing restraint on public expenditure which made it possible to have a rate of growth in the money stock of 6 per cent. in 1971 and of 7 per cent. in 1972. Nobody could say that we are anywhere near that at the present time.
I must not trespass on your patience, Mr. Deputy Speaker, by trying to outline in any detail what steps I could suggest we should take to deal with this situation, but I must identify just one and that is the issue of price subsidisation in the nationalised industries. In my view, it could be said of this that it benefits
"all sections of the community regardless of need and, therefore, tend to be immensely costly in Exchequer terms. They are costly, wasteful, and for these reasons, inefficient. They very quickly come to mean a mounting burden of taxation on the great mass of working people."—[OFFICIAL REPORT, 29th January 1973;l Vol. 849, c. 1073.]
I do not know whether my hon. Friends recollect those words. They are not my own. They are the comments of my right hon. and learned Friend the Minister for Trade and Consumer Affairs last week, and they refer to the subsidisation of food prices. I think they refer with at least equal force to the subsidisation of prices in the nationalised industries, with this difference: that the impact of continued subsidisation of prices in the nationalised industries and continued interference in the management of nationalised industries have produced a condition of morale within the top management of the nationalised industries and a financial condition from which we shall find it increasingly difficult to escape.
I conclude by commenting on some remarks of my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister last weekend. Speaking in Bournemouth, he told the young Tories there:
"Most of us have accepted that there is a rôle for Government in running the economy."
I profoundly agree, and first and foremost it is in ensuring that the Government's own spending does not absorb an ever-growing proportion of the nation's resources. I hope very much that we shall now go to it.
7.47 p.m.
Mr. William Hamling: The speeches from the benches opposite have fascinated me. They reflect the thinking of the Government Front

541
Bench before June 1970, and they certainly reflect the speeches of right hon. and hon. Gentlemen opposite on public expenditure before the last election. They remind me, too, of so many of the speeches which were made by members of the Conservative Party in the days when we used to discuss the national plans.
It seems to me that this debate has been very much like that. Certainly in listening to the strictures of the hon. Member for South Angus (Mr. Bruce-Gardyne) on the Government forecasting, I was reminded so much of the sort of speech that he used to make in 1965, 1966 and 1967, again from the back benches, but in those days he was supported by almost identical speeches from his right hon. Friends. They used to say the same sort of thing. Their philosophy about public expenditure was identical with his. He has not changed. He is sunk in the past. His right hon. Friends, I suppose, are philosophically sunk in the past, but they are trying on the Front Bench to come to terms with some of the facts of life, however inadequately they perform that task.
The hon. Gentleman spoke about the theme of curvaceous development. I looked with him and the rest of the House at the forecasting of the Government, and anyone who believes the forecasts in the White Paper of the reduction in the increase in public expenditure in the future is a bigger fool than any of us in this House looks, I hope. No one accepts those forecasts. They are quite impossible, unless we are to assume that inflation will not only be checked—there are grave doubts about whether this Government are capable of doing that—but sharply reduced.
That brings me to the interesting speech of the right hon. Member for Stafford and Stone (Mr. Hugh Fraser), who talked about the danger of inflation. It is not the danger of inflation but the reality of inflation that we now face. I was looking at the figures just published in some Government housing statistics giving the estimated value of a pre-war three-bedroom semi-detached house in the South-East in 1970. The figure given gas about £6,200. I do not know who could think of buying that sort of house now in the South-East of Eng-
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land at that sort of price. In my view, the value today would be about £14,000 or £15,000. In other words, the value has gone up by well over 100 per cent. since this Government took power. That is one index of the inflation over which they have presided.
The right hon. Member for Stafford and Stone assumed that the reason for inflation was the expansion of public expenditure—I shall come to that more exactly in a moment—and he talked about the borrowing abroad for public capital expenditure which is going on at present. I find this astonishing. He stated his view that it was public demand which was causing inflation. Is it public demand, that is, public demand in the sense of demand by public authorities, that is causing the increase in the supply of money? I do not believe that it is.
I draw the attention of the House to the increase in bank advances. Up to the end of November 1972, it was 76 per cent., and the later figures show that in the last 12 months there was an increase in bank advances of over 80 per cent. That is the sort of inflation over which this Government are presiding. No one can blame the increase in public exenditure for that.
Mr. Ridley Mr. Ridley indicated dissent.
Mr. Hamling: Bank advances to private people? Certainly not public expenditure.
Mr. Ridley: If the Government are unable to finance their large deficit by borrowing from the public and they sell gilt-edged to the banks, that enables the banks to lend large amounts of money to private individuals in order to do exactly what the hon. Gentleman is describing. That is how inflation is started and how the phenomenon he is describing takes place.
Mr. Handing: I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for taking me to the next point in my notes, the Budget deficit and the financing of public expenditure by deficits. That is precisely the policy to which this Government have resorted since 1970. In 1970, the policy of my right hon. Friend the Member for Birmingham, Stechford (Mr. Roy Jenkins) was that we should finance the bulk of Government advances to the nationalised

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undertakings out of taxation and not out of deficits, out of the Budget surplus, not by borrowing. In our debate on the Counter-Inflation Bill just over a week ago, I estimated that the turnover in that particular phenomenon is something over £3,000 million in 2½ years—or, rather, in two years, because I have in mind the figures put forward in the Budget for 1972–73. A turnover of over £3,000 million in two years is a real rake's progress.
The hon. Member for Cirencester and Tewkesbury (Mr. Ridley), his right hon. Friend and his hon. Friend the Member for South Angus walked into the Lobby behind their Front Bench in support of precisely that policy. So, if they are complaining, they know who to blame. They voted for it. They voted for the policies which have led to this business of financing public expenditure out of borrowing. A great element in the equation was the vast reductions in taxation to the wealthy and to public companies. That was the reason for the Government's change in public finance. They were giving the dividends before they had earned the profit. They were giving tax reductions before their policies had brought in the increased revenue which alone could finance the reductions in taxation without causing the Budget to go vastly into the realms of deficit financing. The culprit for the inflation is the Government Front Bench.
The right hon. Member for Stafford and Stone went on to declare the good old palaeolithic Tory philosophy on public expenditure, that the level of public expenditure is far too high. What policy lies behind that sort of declaration? Behind any declaration of philosophy or belief of that sort, there must be some idea of what the Conservative Party thinks we are about when we engage in public expenditure. Before we spend money, before we can consider the level of spending, there must be some idea why we should do it. why it needs to be done. We had no inkling of that from the right hon. Gentleman.
Spending is a product of a policy, and we were not told what it is, save that the Government should get off people's backs. The hon. Member for South Angus talked about the United States and observed how President Nixon was
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controlling public expenditure. Astronomical sums have been spent on defence in the United States, far more than we in this country could ever dream of. Perhaps the American Government thought that the expenditure was necessary. The fact is that it took place, and it is no good the hon. Gentleman imagining that President Nixon and his friends were getting the Government off people's backs against that kind of public expenditure. They were not.
Mr. Bruce-Gardyne: My point was that the rate of increase in public expenditure year on year since the introduction of the new economic policy by Mr. Nixon in August 1971 had enabled the United States Government to pursue extremely moderate monetary policies which were a vital background for their counter-inflation policy.
Mr. Hamling: All I can say to the hon. Gentleman is that he ought to go and look at the squalor in public services in the United States before he commends that policy to the House and to this country. All the evidence is that the real breakdown of civilisation in the United States springs from the Government's failure to realise their obligations in social expenditure, especially the provision of social capital. I shall come to that in a moment.
The Tory Government's policy when they came to power in 1970 was that they were pledged to bring about massive reductions in public expenditure. Their right hon. and hon. Friends below the Gangway do not believe that they have done it. I am sure that they do not themselves believe that they have done it, either, and there is no evidence that they knew in June 1970 how they were ever to carry out that pledge. They reduced the taxation of their friends, but they certainly did not fulfil their election pledge massively to reduce public expenditure.
There was much talk about reducing the number of civil servants and one of the results of Government policy has been that the number of civil servants has increased.
When the right hon. Gentleman was dealing with waste, too, was thinking about certain examples, particularly of the aircraft industry. I was thinking about the new space adventures upon which the

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Government are likely to embark. What a bottomless pit that will be. I hope that Conservative Members who have already castigated the Government will look carefully at that folly and prevent their Government from embarking upon it.
What is the Government's view now about the level of public expenditure and about the social philosophy behind that level and behind the level that they envisage for the next four or five years? As my hon. Friend the Member for Ashfield (Mr. Marquand) said, we on the Labour side believe in a social philosophy. We also firmly believe that the bulk of public expenditure should be financed out of taxation and not out of borrowing. That view was certainly held by my right hon. Friend the Member for Birmingham, Stetchford when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer. Whatever differences of view we might have over some of the minor things that have divided us, we are certainly united on that.
Earlier I referred to the United States and it is interesting to draw comparisons between the philosophy followed there and the sort of philosophy that we should pursue here. I hope that when the Minister replies to the debate he will say whether the Government envisage that the poor of this country will be able to afford to live in decent conditions in our urban communities over the next few years and what steps public policy will take to ensure that they can. If they cannot live in urban communities where are they expected to live? The Government are presiding over a growing number of homeless families, poor families and problem families. There are a great many families in my constituency, which is certainly not one of the poorest, who fall into this category. My hon. Friend the Member for Ashfield referred to the differences between the different regions and he described the South-East as affluent. My hon. Friend the Member for West Ham, North (Mr. Arthur Lewis) knows very well, as I do, that in our part of England there are many poor families who now, in the middle of winter, are without light or heat. Those are the people who are supposed to be living on public funds.
Mr. Arthur Lewis: They are sleeping in cars and vans.
Mr. Hamling: Yes, they cannot afford to pay their bills, I know of families where
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the head of the family is a widow or a deserted wife. There are thousands of such families in the country and many of them are in the affluent South-East. If that happens in the affluent South-East what is happening in other parts of the country? The House should turn its attention to the urban squalor and the danger that if we follow the divisive social philosophy of the Conservative Government it will get worse. The problems include the destruction of homes and of civic amenities by urban road building and the great wealth possessed by some in contrast to the poverty suffered by others.
As for the United States, those of us who have been privileged to watch the Alistair Cooke programme dealing with the history of the United States since the War of American Independence will be familiar with his concluding remarks on the grave social and economic crisis that faces the wealthiest nation in the world. He says that we are only about 10 or 20 years behind the United States in facing the same kind of problems—problems of divided classes, isolated social groups, millions of people who feel that their society does not care about them and who look to the future with no real anticipation of social progress. The problems are of growing violence and crime and of educational and social outcasts.
We already have ghetto schools in London. We know of the problems of schools in places like Tower Hamlets, Hackney, Islington and Southwark. Consider the contrast between those areas and places like Bromley, Beckenham, Redbridge and Wanstead and Woodford—the Chief Secretary's constituency. There are great differences even within the affluent South-East and the philosophy behind our level of public expenditure should be one which enabled us to come to grips with the great divides between the people in our country. That is what lies behind the debate.
I should like to look at some of the figures in the White Paper, particularly those unreal figures dealing with social security payments in the coming four or five years and following on the remarks by the hon. Member for South Angus.
I have one final plea. It is for expenditure on the health service. Some years ago I was parliamentary private secretary

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to a distinguished Minister of Health, Mr. Kenneth Robinson. I can remember being struck during that period by the contrast in demands for increased expenditure in education and expenditure in the health service. The White Paper contains a niggardly level of capital expenditure on hospitals over the next few years. That must be set against the tremendous squalor in the mental hospitals about which I know some Tory MPs are concerned. It is in that context that we should consider our general policy aims. The Government have a great deal to do if they are to convince the House that they have any real philosophy behind their White Paper.
8.8 p.m.
Mr. David Knox: It is always a great pleasure to speak after the hon. Member for Woolwich, West (Mr. Hamling) who is certainly one of the the most popular Members on either side of the House. I am always amazed at the old-fashioned economic views which he holds, particularly about balancing the Budget.
I begin by taking issue with Labour Members on two scores. In the first place, a number of them have said that the Government were elected to office to cut public expenditure. They were not. They were elected to reduce the proportion of the national income devoted to public expenditure, and in support of that proposition I shall quote from a document to which I do not often refer these days. It is called "A Better Tomorrow" and it was our manifesto at the last election. It said that the true problem in social policy is not that we spend too much but that with Labour stagnation we can afford so little. It is only right to put that on record now. [HON. MEMBERS: "Read on."] I do not have the rest of it here just now.
In the second place I take issue particularly with the hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne (Mr. Sheldon), who suggested that the difference between a Tory Governmnt and a Labour Government in respect of public expenditure was that a Labour Government planned it and a Tory Government did not. If the July 1966 and January 1968 cuts were planned, the planning of both was very well concealed. The July 1966 measures were introduced in a panic over a weekend
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when the then Prime Minister was in Moscow and the January 1968 measures were introduced after a great deal of horse trading between members of the Cabinet. Neither party can take particular pride in planning expenditure. I am not altogether sure that planned expenditure in the very long term is necessarily all that desirable.
When our debates on public expenditure White Papers started many hopes were expressed by hon. Members on both sides that they would become one of the two main economic debates of the year. In the debate in 1970 on the first White Paper, the right hon. Member for Birmingham, Stechford (Mr. Roy Jenkins) forecast that it would affect the whole manner in which discussions on public expenditure programmes and policy were conducted. I do not think it is unfair to say that the hopes of the founding fathers have not been altogether fulfilled. I have the impression that the House is not quite as full today as on Budget Day, for example.
Since I entered the House in 1970, interest in the White Paper and the debate has undoubtedly declined, with fewer willing participants each year. Last year we had a two-day debate in response to demand, yet before the second day was well advanced the Whips were searching in the corridors for speakers.
Hon. Members should not blame themselves too much. In our indifference we represent fairly accurately the great British public. I do not think that the public are very interested, however much some enthusiasts may care to kid themselves. There was hardly a ripple when the White Paper was published. I believe that today's debate will not be covered at any great length in tomorrow's newspapers. I doubt whether beyond a handful of enthusiasts outside the House anyone knows that the debate is taking place.
Perhaps this is all inevitable. My hon. Friend the Member for Rushcliffe (Mr. Kenneth Clarke) made the point last year, and it has been repeated today, that whether we like it or not hon. Members are only to a slight extent involved in the formulation and consideration of policy. Policies are formulated, considered and decided essentially by Government and then presented to Parliament for approval or rejection. They may be modified here and there as they make

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their way through Parliament, but in general the initiation of policy is something in which hon. Members play little or no part. I am not criticising anyone, but simply stating a fact. I do not think that thus far the introduction of the White Paper or these debates has essentially altered the situation, although it may eventually do so.
When we are considering the White Paper it is a great mistake to become weighed down in too much detail. What eventually happens in public expenditure is unlikely to bear too close a resemblance to what is in the White Paper. This is not necessarily a matter of criticism; it is a matter of fact.
I should like to start by considering briefly the counter-cyclical effect of Government expenditure. The right hon. Member for Manchester, Cheetham (Mr. Harold Lever) dealt with the matter in his speech last year at some length. I found myself largely in agreement with him. Whether that makes him a Tory or me a Socialist is not for me to say. No doubt there will be differing views. It is generally considered that if the economy in general is slack public expenditure should be speeded up, and that if the economy is operating at a high level of activity the reverse should happen.
The question that faces us is whether these counter-cyclical adjustments should be made on capital or current expenditure, or both. I incline to the view that it is better to concentrate on current expenditure, though some adjustment to capital expenditure should not be precluded from consideration. The fact is that capital expenditure is not and cannot be as flexible as current expenditure. Capital investment in the public sector—nationalised industries and public services—like capital investment in the private sector involves a great deal of preparatory work before it is even considered, and far more before projects are actually started. The analysis of engineering problems, financial consequences, market situations and so on, all takes a long time. Large sums of money are often involved, and it is important that the preparatory work should be done properly.
Therefore, it seems difficult to use such investment for counter-cyclical reasons. It would be foolish to use some of the
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bigger capital investment projects in that way. They would not be properly examined. The advantages of some projects against others would not be adequately considered. Resources would be misapplied.
At the same time, we should not completely preclude capital expenditure, for two reasons. First, the nature of public expenditure is such that we can forecast future demand rather more easily than future demand for consumer products in the more competitive private enterprise part of the economy, where profit is a greater consideration, at least in the short term. For example, we can be as near certain as possible that we shall need an additional M6 in the fairly near future. In theory there is no reason why we cannot go ahead with much of the planning now and be ready to introduce it if at some time it makes sense for counter-cyclical reasons. But although it was undoubtedly true in the 1960s that the motor car industry would eventually expand, it was not feasible or possible for the industry to make that sort of investment, given the market that existed then. I make that distinction between private and public investment.
The second reason why we can use public capital expenditure to some extent as a counter-cyclical measure is that a large number of small capital projects in the public sector can be brought forward quite easily and have a useful counter-cyclical effect. I congratulate the Treasury on its initiative in that respect some 18 months ago. I hope that a great deal of work is going on at present to sort out a large number of small capital projects of that nature that can be used when the economy is slack in the future.
I would conclude that, though I think that it would play some part, I do not think that capital expenditure can be a principal form of counter-cyclical action. Current expenditure can. Time is short, so I shall not go into detail, except to say that it is easier when the economy is slack to increase things like pensions by more than the increase in national output than it is when the economy is operating at a high level of activity.
For the rest of the time available to me I shall devote my attention to the supposed inflationary effect of high public expenditure. A number of my hon.

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Friends hold the view that it has that effect, but I do not. I believe that it is a myth that public expenditure in itself is inflationary. It is not inflationary—in itself. If public expenditure at no matter what level, taken together with private expenditure, including investment, results in total effective demand falling short of supply potential, or being equal to supply potential, we do not have a demand inflationary situation. It is only when public expenditure taken together with private expenditure results in total effective demand being in excess of supply potential that we have a demand inflationary situation.
The cause of this inflation is not public expenditure. The size of demand is the crucial factor. That does not mean that there may not be other reasons why public expenditure might comprise too high a proportion of the national income, leaving too little for people to spend themselves. Exactly what the correct proportion is difficult to say. It varies from time to time. Public expenditure undoubtedly comprises a much higher proportion of the national income today than it did in 1900, 1800 or 1700. The acceptance by our society of the higher proportion does not do any particular harm. However, there is a danger that the Opposition will allow it to reach too large a proportion of the national income given the circumstances prevailing at any one time.
It is important to recognise that our criticism of the last Labour Government—I have already referred to this but it is worth making the point again—was not that public expenditure under them was too high but that because of the lack of growth, public expenditure was not able to increase quickly enough. Had we had growth we could have had higher public expenditure and a lower proportion of the national income being devoted to it.
I realise that I have been speaking for rather a long time. I appreciate that there are other hon. Members who wish to speak. I would only say that I am not certain of exactly the right proportion of the national income which should go towards public expenditure. It is a value judgement and depends on the circumstances at any one time. However, I would add that it is nonsense to talk in terms of public expenditure being cut in absolute terms. It will always rise and it
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should always rise. There is still so much in the public sector that we should do. As the nation becomes wealthier it should try to do those things in the public sector rather better than it has done in the past.
I part company with the Opposition in that I want to see increases in expenditure in the public sector accompanied by increases in expenditure in the private sector, and not at the expense of the private sector. That is what the White Paper aims to do, inexact as it is undoubtedly is. As my hon. Friend the Chief Secretary pointed out, the increase in public expenditure will work out at about 3 per cent. a year, and that should be the minimum increase in the gross national product.
8.23 p.m.
Mr. Tam Dalyell: As others besides myself have been here since 20 minutes to four, and as what I have to say is wholly constructive I hope that the Financial Secretary will not take offence if I put my arguments succinctly and in "shorthand". I first refer to expenditure for sport. It may already be known to the Treasury that Dr. Roger Bannister, Mr. Laurie Liddell, Chairman of the Sports Council of Scotland, and Lieut.-Colonel Henry Llewellyn, Chairman of the Sports Council of Wales, attended an all-party meeting last week which was chaired by the hon. Member for Exeter (Mr. John Hannam) and myself. They outlined to us the ways in which further expenditure on sport, which is a "drop in the bucket" compared to some of the mammoth departmental expenditures, could improve the national well-being. I happen to think that it is a rather bad comparison, but they pointed out that under the last Government the arts did rather better than sport and are still doing so under the present Government. I leave that argument with the hope that sport will keep pace with the arts.
My second short point arises from page 31 of the White Paper on forestry. From the talks that we have had with the Forestry Commission, I am not happy with the reckoning of 55,000 acres. Planting could take place at a faster rate. We are also persuaded by the Highlands and Islands Development Board that if there were more money available it could start certain capital schemes, such as the provision of holiday homes, over the next

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five to 10 years which would fairly soon pay off, if by "fairly soon" I can talk in terms of a decade and a half. When we talk about regional development that should be taken into account.
My third minor point is about oil. I was lucky enough to have a Consolidated Fund debate and I will not repeat all that. I merely say that expenditure since the oil exploration study in the universities is overwhelmingly financed by the generosity of the Wolfson Foundation. I should have thought, with Heriot-Watt in particular, that the Government might at least have matched £ for £ what has been given by Wolfson for this crucial study. If oil is to be the third industrial revolution in the north of England, the study undertaken by Dr. Smith, Professor Patton and the staff at Heriot-Watt is crucial, and at least the Government could match the private benefaction £ for £.
I now turn to my last minor point. I stress that it is comparatively minor. I do not want to earn the contempt or disapproval of my hon. Friend the Member for Heywood and Royton (Mr. Joel Barnett). The Government have been fairly generous to archaeology. There is a growing demand for excavation funds. On the day that the Henry VIII fountain has appeared in New Palace Yard, something can be said for rather greater expenditure on archaeology. I appreciate that we must be selective. I am not for preserving every site on the M4 or any other motorway. But now that so many major excavations are going on, the Chief Inspector of Ancient Monuments could use any Treasury generosity.
I have three points on major items of expenditure. I do not share the view of my hon. Friend the Member for Woolwich, West (Mr. Hamling)—I am probably in the minority on this side of the House—on aerospace. It may be—I do not know—that those of us who say we should consider participation with the post-Apollo programme are proposing another Concorde. However, many of the things that go with post-Apollo are a good deal more valuable in their objectives than Concorde.
At some stage I should like to know what the Treasury thinks about the long-drawn-out question of participation in the post-Apollo programme. From the
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Estimates and from the White Paper I see no signs that we are embarking on that road. There may be a sigh of relief from my party's Front Bench. I personally would regret that.
The reactor problem—page 38 of the White Paper—finds us united, but undoubtedly more expenditure must be allocated if we are to concentrate and make a success of the money that has already been spent on the fast breeder system. Those of us who go from time to time to Dounreay have no doubts about the energy requirements of the 1990s. We can only be satisfied that some kind of fast breeder system will be required if we are talking about priorities and not having a post mortem in the way made plain by the right hon. Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann).
When reflecting in a public expenditure context on the long term for the nuclear reactor programme, by far and away the most important point is that which I put at four o'clock when I interrupted the Chief Secretary.
If the Government are serious about regional policy and regional help, the best thing that can be done—and it can be done at a stroke—is to say in the Budget that for the foreseeable future they will continue the regional employment premium. Anyone who talks to industrialists in the regions must be fully aware that uncertainty, a sense of being "mucked around", is a hindrance to investment. The best thing that could be done for investment—and I need not spell it out further—is a clear announcement that REP will continue for the foreseeable future.
The last issue I wish to raise I shall put in a constituency aspect at the start. I rarely raise constituency matters on the Floor of the House, but I go in this instance from the particular to the general. The particular concerns the major fire at a tip at Fauldhouse in the south-west of West Lothian. This tip is used as a dump by industry from as far afield as Workington, Cumberland and Northumberland right through the central belt of Scotland to Ayrshire. Materials are dumped by a subsidiary of the famous firm of Powell Duffryn near the village of Fauldhouse in my constituency. The dump goes on fire from time to time and on Saturday morning

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last it was particularly unpleasant when I saw it.
I raise this matter because I think there is both an environmental and a long-term resources case for serious interest in the work of reclamation industries and recycling. The Financial Secretary can heave a sigh of relief, because I shall not go over all that was said about this matter during the proceedings on the Finance Act last year. I am now saying something slightly different. I ask that before the White Paper is produced next year attention should be paid not only to the concept of a gross national product but also to the concept of the gross national well-being. This would involve not only the quantity of money, which does not measure up to all we want, but also the quality of life. This could be significant in the whole context of expenditure for the development and protection not only of the recycling industry but of the environment. If society is prepared to pay, unpleasantness like that at Eastfield tip could be avoided.
We have had various meetings with the go-ahead Reclamation Industries Council, which says that the industry should be cradled and cherished like any other infant industry. In a sense this is an up-and-coming industry. I see disbelief in the hon. Gentleman's face but, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Sheffield, Hillsborough (Mr. Darling) has made clear, it is a tremendous new industry—for example, tyres made into granules, glass into road hole-filling equipment and, indeed, various other ideas that were put forward by the RIC.
I shall not go into the various ideas we have heard in the Select Committee. All I say is that this is neither an eccentric nor an original proposition. Mr. Mosher, from Indiana, the ranking Republican on the United States Senate Science Committee, requires and gets an environmental impact assessment of every American measure. Before the White Paper is produced next year, I ask that we should have added to it some kind of environmental impact assessment. We really have to look at what we are up to.
If we impoverish the land we have to consider the soil report for the West
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Midlands; if we exhaust the mines we have to look at the sad history of the shale oil industry and its refuse in the North; if we misuse the quarries we must look at Cornwall; if we abuse natural gas there will be difficulty in the North Sea; if we poison the rivers there will be difficulties for angling.
The only measure is the value of the products we get out, plus paid-for services and the incomes of those who produce or render them. Without going deeply into the growth argument, I would like to see this environmental impact assessment in next year's White Paper. We really have a confusion often of the big with the good.
A farmer doing the gross and net return from his acres must do his accounts on the basis that his land, including hedges, ditches and watercourses, is in as good heart at the end of the year as at the beginning. To keep it so is the principle of all good husbandry and a condition of most farming leases. Output reckoned or income gained at the expense of the deterioration of the land is an illusion. Yet this is precisely what we do if we add up the gross national product and derive from it the figures for economic growth.
I was one of the official delegates to the second Inter-Parliamentary Conference on the Environment, which called on national Governments to initiate fiscal studies to consider what help can be given to the recycling industry, what tax can be added to scarce materials such as copper and how the tax system can be worked on this kind of basis. The conference believed that such measures can be introduced only on the basis of international co-operation. I hope that these things will be properly considered in next year's White Paper on Public Expenditure. I leave it at that, in "shorthand", because of the time but I ask for some kind of environment impact assessment in next year's White Paper on Public Expenditure.
8.35 p.m.
Mr. Peter Hordem: Hon. Gentlemen on the Opposition benches have spent a great deal of time this afternoon in referring to the somersaults which the Government have performed in their policy changes. The Labour

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Party is in no position to talk about such pursuits, especially as they are led by Springheel Jack himself, the Leader of the Opposition.
It is undoubtedly true that the Government's economic policy has changed considerably since June 1970. But I do not think that anyone can hold that a Government's policy must be wholly consistant with the policy worked out in opposition. There are bound to be unforeseen circumstances to which any Government which adopts a sensible policy will adapt. But when those circumstances no longer apply, it is reasonable to hope and expect that the Government will revert to their original policy and original path.
Many people welcome the change in the Government's policies, especially hon. Gentlemen opposite. Some thought that the original policies were too harsh and would antagonise many people. On the other hand, some, like myself, felt that there must be a reduction in public expenditure to make room for growth and that, having achieved growth, we could then decide our priorities in relation to public expenditure. That is what the Government felt when they were returned to power. I refer to the speech of my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer in which he said:
"In 1964, the public sector accounted for 44 per cent. of the gross domestic product. By 1969 that proportion had risen to 50 per cent. … In our view, this trend is unacceptable."—[OFFICIAL REPORT, 27th October 1970; Vol. 805, c. 38.]
That trend must be still more unacceptable now.
I will not refer in detail to the changes in policy that have occurred, as they have been mentioned many times this afternoon, but the largest change was the appearance of the Industry Bill, because it was not just the public sector which was affected by these changes in policy. The private sector also was deeply affected. Of the private sector, my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer said in the same speech that throughout this field, meaning industry,
"we shall apply strict criteria as to what are proper functions and activities for the Government to carry out or finance, and what should be eliminated, reduced or undertaken by industry itself."—[OFFICIAL REPORT, 27th October 1970; Vol. 805, c. 40.]
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Those sentiments are wholly admirable and I find myself in complete agreement with them.
In consequence of those sentiments, the IRC was abolished. We now have an organisation known as the Industrial Executive. The Consumer Association was abolished. We now have a Ministry for Trade and Consumer Affairs. The National Board for Prices and Incomes was abolished. We now have one board for prices and one board for incomes. That is not the most scintillating platform on which to fight the next election.
The point about all these measures that were introduced and the changes in policy that occurred is that they followed a crisis of unemployment and, therefore, actions were taken by the Government which they had not originally intended to take. Some of these policies are referred to in the White Paper in table 1.3 as counter-cyclical measures, but it all depends upon what one refers to as counter-cyclical measures.
I would tend to lump in with counter-cyclical measures the whole of the additional expenditure on industrial and regional development policies which appear in the columns below that, particularly those policies related so closely to the Industry Act. There are many who welcomed the change in the Government's policy on the grounds of making "one nation" a reality, as if all that matters is that the means should be acceptable to all.
The trouble is that one can please most of the people most of the time but one cannot please them all for all of the time. What really matters is the ends and whether we have achieved our objectives at the end of this Parliament. That is how we shall be judged, on our record of controlling inflation, on the standard of living at the time, on our record in eradicating slums and poverty. That will be the test, and that is why means are important, too. We judged the means to achieve those ends to be those which achieve growth, which cut the proportion of the gross national product devoted to public expenditure and then we would be able to decide how to select our priorities in public expenditure.
The advantage in that course was that companies and industry could go about their business knowing the areas in which

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the Government would work. Industry was encouraged to think that public expenditure would take up a smaller proportion of the gross national product. Table 1.2 shows the growth of public expenditure over a number of years. It is worth while looking at the actual experience of the forecasts in public expenditure over the past three years. The White Paper of January 1971 forecast that public expenditure would increase in 1972–73 by 3·2 per cent. The increase was just over 6 per cent. The forecast for next year was 2·7 per cent. and now it is said that it will be about 5·3 per cent. We must ask how realistic is a forecast of a public expenditure of only 1·7 per cent. in 1974–76. I am convinced that the occasion of the turn-round in our policy was the Upper Clyde crisis, followed so closely by the Industry Act.
Mr. Ridley: May I give my hon. Friend a classic confirmation of what he is saying? Under the National Plan for 1964–70 the gross national product was planned to increase by 25 per cent. and public expenditure by 23 per cent.—which would have been all right. What happened was that gross national product increased by 13 per cent. and public expenditure increased by 33 per cent. That is not all right.
Mr. Hordern: I am obliged to my hon. Friend. That exactly illustrates the trend to which I was referring. The worst aspect of the reversal of our industrial policy is that it stands in danger of becoming institutionalised and thus difficult to reverse, even when the employment situation has improved so much. It should be removed, for all sorts of reasons. The Industrial Executive is empowered to help lame ducks. A successful company in one industry gets no grant. An unsuccessful company in the same industry and the same region can get a grant. I would appreciate my hon. Friend telling us whether such a grant will count in estimating the profit margin which will have to be used in assessing whether that year can be adopted as one of the two out of the five last years. I trust it will not. Otherwise it would be grossly unfair.
It is not just the form of assistance which is wrong. Above all it is the economic consequences. We have only
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to look at the scale of proposed aid to industry in the 1971 White Paper and compare it with the current White Paper to realise this. The original forecast for 1973–74 was that aid for industry and relieving unemployment would be £648 million. Now it is expected to be £1,817 million. No one can sensibly assume that expenditure as far ahead as 1976–77 will fall to £1,058 million as it is designed to do.
Next year we shall be spending nearly £1,200 million more on industry and relieving unemployment than we said we would spend two years ago. With this money we could have quadrupled the cost of REP which was specifically designed to deal with unemployment. We would still have been substantially better off than we are now. Even this estimate of £1,817 million for next year takes no account of any possible expenditure under Section 8 of the Industry Act. The sum of £550 million has been allowed under the Act.
So far as I can see, no allowance has been made for any escalation in the price of the Concorde or for any future shipbuilding grants which seem likely to be made. We do not know about the effect of any capital write-offs which will be necessary in the Post Office and the steel industry, nor about the effect on the National Loan Fund of the price restrictions on the nationalised industries which must increase the current borrowing requirement. In short, there has been an enormous and fundamental switch of resources to industry which we cannot afford.
It is one thing to help lame ducks but that is not enough for my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry or for the Government. My right hon. Friend said in the last debate on industry just before Christmas,
"The Government intend not just to assist industries with passing difficulties. We also intend to help the potential winners in the British economy."—[OFFICIAL REPORT, 12th December 1972; Vol. 848, c. 266.]
Let me say why I object to this as well, not just because no one knows where the Government intend to intervene next or why, nor whether stage 3 will be tougher than stage 2, and these are not the conditions which make for settled expansion in industry. Nor is it the lack of appreciation of one of the real strengths

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of our economy—the capital market. The real objection is that we simply cannot afford further interventions of this character. Throughout history Government involvement in industry has not been a happy story and, despite all my right hon. Friend's proved commercial brilliance, I do not think that he will succeed. He is likely to lose as much money as quickly as his former colleague Jim Slater makes it. The market is not always right, of course. But it is investors' money which is at stake and not public money. So I hope that the Government will drop that idea.
I do not think that the importance of public expenditure can be exaggerated. It is the one element in our affairs which is totally under the Government's control. But it is not just a matter of what the Government should get involved in and what they should not. It is also a basic requirement of economic policy that if the growth of the national product is faster than public expenditure we can get a faster rate of growth from which we can calculate how best to use our resources. It is also a question of defining our direction plainly so that all can see and follow it if they will.
This is precisely what President Nixon has done. President Nixon, after all, is the head of the largest industrial country in the world. He seems to believe that the American people should be given a clear sense of direction about the economy. He has dismantled controls on prices and incomes at the first opportunity. He has a balanced Budget on the basis of full employment. He has public expenditure firmly and demonstrably under control to leave room for the growth of the gross national product.
We do not know whether it is the Government's intention to remove statutory control of prices and incomes. We do not have a balanced Budget on any formula. We have a large inflationary borrowing requirement. No one knows what public expenditure will be in three or four years. Yet it is not too late to choose. We can choose whether we adopt the American pattern and set a clear path for all to follow. We can afford to be flexible about how much we allocate to industry. There is time to cut back wasteful and unnecessary industrial policies and expenditure. There is
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time to ensure that public expenditure will grow at less than the rate of the growth of the gross national product. There is time to make room for growth and then to decide how much more can be spent on hospitals, schools and social security benefits.
We can show clearly that we mean people to have more independence, more freedom to choose and more from which to choose. But the choice must be made plainly, and it must be made soon.
8.49 p.m.
Mr. E. Fernyhough: I am sure that the Financial Secretary must be thinking to himself "Who needs enemies when one has friends like the hon. Member for Horsham (Mr. Hordern)?" I appreciate what bitter reading the White Paper is to the hon. Gentleman and to many of his hon. Friends.
It is amazing how the Government have tried to convey the impression during the debate that they did not promise during the last election to reduce public expenditure. It seems that somehow this is a figment of our imagination—that no such statements were ever made by any Conservative candidate during the last General Election. I know that the Conservative candidate in my constituency made those promises and that I made a contrary promise. I made it quite clear in my election address that in my opinion there could be no reduction in taxation because so many things needed to be done in the social and economic sphere which could not be done on the basis of reduced taxation.
I have always believed that we get a far better return on that which we spend publicly than on that which we spend privately. There will always be a big argument between what I would call the satisfying of the personal appetite and the satisfying of the public appetite. If anyone wants to understand which is the public appetite, let him examine our Order Paper for one week and note the Questions put down in the names of Conservative Members. It will be seen that every day they are asking every Minister to spend more money: individually they want more spent, but when they meet collectively they are all against such expenditure.

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Some of the cuts that hon. Members opposite would like to make are anathema to me, but there are some cuts that I would gladly make. As you will know from long experience, Mr. Speaker, I have for over a quarter of a century consistently said that Britain was bearing an arms burden beyond its capacity to carry. For 25 years I have argued that defence took too big a proportion of our resources. Ever since we applied to enter the Common Market—and I have been, and am, against entry—I have argued that we should reduce the percentage of our GNP which is spent on defence to the average spent on it by the EEC countries.
If we have been the sick country of Europe it is not because our workers have not pulled their weight or because our industry has not been efficient. It is because year after year we have spent on defence a far higher proportion of our resources than we could afford and a far greater proportion than that spent by any of the Six in the last 25 years. We could make one substantial economy by saying that we shall spend on defence no more than the average spent on it by the EEC countries. In that way we could save several hundred million pounds a year.
We could make that saving, but I would not like to see that reduced public expenditure reflected in a reduction in income tax, because there are so many other things we have to do. It is a scandal, it is quite indefensible, that the White Paper should envisage a cut in housing expenditure. Conservative Members may not understand it but there is growing up among the homeless and among those who are living in rat-infested hovels—and we read again today of a house where rats as big as cats are running about—a feeling that "If enough of us become squatters the authorities will not be able to do anything about it".
I do not want that to happen, but it will be inevitable if the hopes and desires of civilised people to have homes of their own are constantly denied because of rising prices and frozen wages. If these hopes and desires are constantly denied we can say goodbye to a tranquil and peaceful society. People wanting accommodation will do what hungry people have done throughout the cen-
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turies: they will, if necessary, steal food if it is available. People who are not enjoying reasonable housing conditions will take similar action. Any money therefore saved on defence should be devoted to housing needs.
There are other needs. One hon. Gentleman was honest enough to say that he would cut public expenditure in the nationalised industries. I accept that the Industry Act gives the Minister more power than Joe Stalin had. It is the most revolutionary Act passed by this House. The trouble is that the Minister will not use those powers to the extent I should like him to use them. If he did, it would mean more public expenditure. But I am prepared to defend that public expenditure. Without this public expenditure hon. Gentlemen on the Government side must realise that they would by now have been out of office. Unemployment would have risen to such a height that it would have been insufferable, people would have been out on the streets in their tens of thousands and law and order would not have been maintained. This gigantic increase in public expenditure has at least enabled the Government to keep unemployment at a lower figure than it would have been, although it is 200,000 higher than when the Labour Government left office.
There are two Catholic schools in my constituency. I do not wish to sound offensive, but I do not think that any hon. Member would allow his child to attend either of those schools. They are a disgrace. It is only the dedication of the teachers that has enabled the children in those schools to reap any benefit from education because of the environment in which they have to work. When I met the Minister to plead for two new schools I told him that I had seen battery fowls living in better conditions than those in which these children were being educated. We are releasing £18 million in 1975 for new secondary schools. That is a fleabite compared with what needs to be done.
I never make promises about reducing taxation. I have said that I would increase taxation to meet the needs of the people, whether in housing, education, health or any other sphere which reflects how civilised or uncivilised we are as a nation.

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Galbraith once quoted a phrase which is worthy of repetition. He said that America was a society of private affluence and public squalor. Conservative Members want to reduce public expenditure so that the Chancellor can repeat his offensive tax reductions for the wealthy, they ought to realise not only the kind of future that awaits them but the kind of country that this will be.
It is damned dangerous to deny what I call the public appetite. It knows how to demonstrate, and if we are to avoid demonstrations and concentrations it is no good talking about reducing public expenditure. The time may come when it will he necessary to increase it even further in order to provide our people with the kind of society to which they are entitled.
9.1 p.m.
Mr. Joel Barnett: I know that there have been complaints throughout the day about the unfortunate lack of attendance at our debate, but I do not believe that the size of the attendance can affect the fact that we are debating expenditure of about £29,000 million. It is of paramount importance to debate that kind of figure whatever the size of the audience or how many Members take part in the debate.
I begin by paying tribute to the Chairman of the Expenditure Committee, the hon. Member for Walsall, South (Sir H. d'Avigdor-Goldsmid). I know the work that he has done in our finance debates. I always listen with great interest to him, even when he talks about his favourite racehorses. I have noticed the conscientious way in which he approaches his job, if only by his attendance at our small sub-committee dealing with trade and industry. The way that he has started makes it clear that he will conduct the affairs of the Expenditure Committee in the way in which his predecessor did, and I join others in paying tribute to the right hon. Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann) who conducted the Committee's affairs in a way which I think proved acceptable to both sides of the House.
Some hon. Members have said that they are not sure whether this should be a party battle. I do not understand why anybody should imagine that the spending of about £29,000 million and the way in which it is spent could be anything but
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part of a public battle. Of course it is necessary to discuss rationally how best to control the expenditure once the Government have decided their priorities, but that there should be, and always will be, major differences of opinion along party lines is not something that we should regret.
I go along with those—particularly the hon. Member for Eastleigh (Mr. David Price) and the right hon. Member for Taunton—who have said that it is a pity our sub-committees are not televised so that people can witness the questioning of Ministers, permanent secretaries and industrialists. Were that done it would provide the community at large with a much greater interest in our proceedings than is provided by the reporting—excessive reporting, perhaps—of the odd-supplementary question at Question Time. But there we are. Our debates are not televised, but I hope that they will be in the not-too-distant future.
I begin with a fairly non-controversial part of my speech and deal first with the work of the sub-committees. I say non-controversial, but I have one minor criticism of the way in which one of the subcommittees has been run. I am thinking of the sub-committee chaired by my hon. Friend the Member for Wolverhampton, North-East (Mrs. Renée Short). I am sorry that she is not here, but I told her that I proposed to refer to her. I agree with everything that she said about the way in which the health service works, in particular in relation to private practice, but it was wrong to use a sub-committee of the Expenditure Committee for that purpose. It would have been perfectly sufficient to take all the evidence, obtain the facts, and then produce a report without drawing the necessarily partisan conclusions. That does not help. It would be satisfactory to take all the evidence there so that any particular political party wishing to take out of it a party point later would be perfectly free to do so.
Let us take, for example, the situation of a sub-committee analysing—as has been done but, perhaps, in greater depth—the aero-engine industry. Let us suppose that the Select Committee looking at that industry, or some of its members, decided that it would be useful to nationalise it. A particular political party might have decided that it wanted to do that—as we have seen during the present

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Government's period of office. Neverthless, it would have been absolutely wrong for any Conservative hon. Member to have used that Select Committee for the Conservative Party's dogmatic objectives.
A much better way to run these subcommittees would be our way of running the Sub-Committee on Trade and Industry, of which I have the honour to be a member. That Sub-Committee is chaired by my hon. Friend the Member for Stockton-on-Tees (Mr. William Rodgers), who has told me that unfortunately he is unable to be present for the debate. However, hon. Members on both sides of the House who have been members of that Committee will agree that we have approached highly controversial subjects, such as public money in the private sector, yet we have been able at the end of the day to present all the evidence and to draw certain conclusions about the control of public money without presenting a party approach.
I make it absolutely clear that it will be left entirely free in the near future, when the Labour Party is in Government, to do something about the way public money is spent in the private sector. But the purposes of the Public Expenditure Committee are not best served by using it for these partisan objectives.
Mr. Christopher Woodhouse: Perhaps it would not be appropriate for the hon. Gentleman to do so, but may someone from the Government side of the House pay a similar tribute to the hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne (Mr. Sheldon) as Chairman of the General Sub-Committee on Public Expenditure?
Mr. Barnett: I am always happy to hear tributes to my hon. Friend, as they are certainly justified.
The question of public expenditure and expenditure committees, equally, works two ways. It will need any Government's action on the recommendations of the expenditure sub-committees.
I should like to turn briefly, again in a fairly non-partisan way, to the point made by the hon. Member for Horsham (Mr. Hordern) and others about public expenditure in the nationalised industries. While I do not agree with the main burden of his argument, I accept that there is a serious problem about the fiscal discipline in the nationalised industries
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arising out of the present situation. I noted particularly an article in the Financial Times on 31st January. One of the articles commented,
"The system of financial targets built up gradually during the sixties, which was intended to impose an overall discipline on the management of the nationalised industries while freeing it from Treasury interference in matters of detail, has now collapsed … The result, which has been experienced before, is predictable. With no fixed targets to aim at, management tends to lose heart and the incentive to control costs."
I am sure that that is true and that hon. Members on both sides of the House would agree with that. Given the circumstances of the day, equally it was vital for the Government to ensure that prices did not rise in the nationalised industries.
The hon. Member for South Angus (Mr. Bruce-Gardyne) would not altogether agree with my views on the nationalised industries and the way in which they should be financed. But we must return to targets quickly, otherwise the cost will be astronomical in real terms and in terms of efficiency.
I come to the slightly more controversial part of my remarks. The Opposition amendment
"condemns the Government's public expenditure policy since 18th June 1970"
and
"deplores the priorities in Command Paper No. 5178."
There have been many arguments today about whether the Government planned the present situation in public expenditure. The impression that the Chief Secretary gave was that it was all part of a considered plan but that we had tended to forget how it started. Government control of public expenditure has been like a slow foxtrot—slow, slow, quick, quick, slow.
Mr. Charles Loughlin: That is a waltz.
Mr. Barnett: I apologise. If it is a waltz, it is a slow one. I thought that it was a foxtrot and I see that the Chief Secretary is agreeing with me. I do not know what kind of dance the Chief Secretary is doing now.
That seems to be the situation, because it began with a slow two years of petty cuts—school meals, school milk, art galleries, health and dental services, the sort of cut which I should have thought and

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hope that the Chancellor of the Exchequer is now ashamed of in the days when he allowed public expenditure to expand as he has done since. Following the two slow years, the Chancellor recognised that he had got it all wrong and there were two quick years with increases in public expenditure. The Chancellor seems to be giving it away like a man who does not know that money exists, as if it does not matter.
The Chancellor increased the money supply with a gay abandon which appalled the hon. Member for South Angus. It appalled the hon. Gentleman even more when the Chancellor appeared to be using it to carry out a garbled version of parts of the Labour Party Manifesto. I am not quite sure which manifesto suggested the nationalisation of Rolls-Royce, but I imagine that if it had been useful to a Liberal candidate the Liberal Party would have included it. I am sorry that none of the Liberal Bench is present, because a Liberal Member could have told us whether the Liberal Party would have included it in its next manifesto.
According to the specialist adviser of the General Sub-Committee, expenditure has increased in the two years from 1971–72 to 1973–74 by £700 million in resources terms. I do not think that the Treasury disagreed with this. This serves to emphasise the lunacy of the first period of cuts.
We are told now that it is all to be followed by three slow years. It is easy to forecast the further away one is from the years in question. It was forecast in January 1971 that 1972–73 and 1973–74 were to be slow years. The hon. Member for South Angus is smiling. He knows what happened in those two years. They were anything but slow years. During this time there was a lavish redistribution of taxes, and not taxes of the kind advocated by the Labour Party. Those were the days when right hon. and hon. Members opposite were advocating the greatest need for incentives and a free enterprise system.
Mr. Fernyhough: And no help for lame ducks.
Mr. Barnett: The Prime Minister, speaking on Sunday to the National Young Conservatives, said this about free enterprise,
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"But of course most of us have always seen the system as a tool to be used by man, not a god to be worshipped."
Sunday seems to be an appropriate day to talk about what should or should not be worshipped, but I am not too sure that an audience of Young Conservatives is the appropriate audience.
It would perhaps be better that the Prime Minister should now tell us just what his policy is on incentives—or perhaps he should tell the 300 civil servants of the Price Commission so that they could tell the 1½ million traders who have the job of working out the best of their profit margins in the last five years. They may not quite understand all this talk about incentives and free enterprise. The result of all this, together with the social policy concerning rents, pensions and social security, as well as industrial policy, has, not surprisingly, brought the present Government and the country to a massive economic crisis.
I want to examine the consequences of what the Government have been doing on growth, employment, balance of payments, industrial investment and private consumption. We have been given in the White Paper a few very carefully drafted words on what we shall or shall not have in the next few years in terms of growth. But the target, from the Chancellor's point of view, is to sustain a 5 per cent. level of growth together with high investment. We see in Table 1.2 in the White Paper what would be the situation if we had a 5 per cent. level of growth together with high investment. We are told that we would need an average of £170 million—that is left-over balance of trade. I will come back in a moment to whether or not that would be adequate.
We are told that 4·8 per cent. would be available for private consumption. I do not know whether we need to believe the report in the London and Cambridge Bulletin. Judging from his grimace, the Chancellor does not appear to believe it. I doubt whether anybody would believe that £170 million a year, certainly in the next couple of years, would be anything like adequate to deal with the likely balance of payments situation. Without necessarily believing that the London and Cambridge Report is accurate—no economist ever gets these figures accurate—I accept that in the short and medium term we are faced with a serious, if not

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disastrous, balance of payments situation. I refer to the present public expenditure growth set out on page 9 of the White Paper, showing that from 1974–75 to 1976–77 it will be very much reduced to 1·7, 1·8 and then 1–4 per cent. There will be many, not least in local government, who will not be too happy about the idea of cuts of that kind in local expenditure. But more of that later. Clearly there will need to be some reduction in public expenditure in the Government's assistance to local authorities. If that is not the case, there will either be a massive increase in rates—
Mr. Patrick Jenkin: I do not understand what the hon. Gentleman is saying. The figures that he mentioned were increases. Nobody said anything about cuts.
Mr. Barnett: If the right hon. Gentleman will have a word with some of his hon. Friends who have some experience in local government, he will appreciate the difficulty of keeping growth in expenditure in local government to 1·7, 1·8 and 1·4 per cent. He should have a word with those who are trying to deal with the rates this year and who are trying to keep them to something like what the Chancellor is asking them to achieve—a small increase in rates, despite the increases in valuation—[interruption.] An hon. Member says "12½per cent." In Manchester it could be 25 per cent. or 30 per cent. To say to local authorities that they should maintain their growth in expenditure to 1·7 per cent., 1·8 per cent. and 1·4 per cent. is a nonstarter.
Given the right policies, I am optimistic in the longer term, but it is dishonest to say that the present level in the £ might have risen slightly or that we are repaying debts, which arouses great cheers from hon. Members on the Government benches, or to have a great cheer when it is announced that there is a growth of real personal incomes of 7 per cent., when the latter has gone a long way to the heart of what has caused the problem facing the country today.
Something needs to be done about all these problems, but if we are to overcome the short-term problem it will be no use cheering all the repayments of debt, especially when we bear in mind the
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sort of thing that happened last July and the amount of money which could go out in five or six days. The truth is that there ought to be a cheer when the debts begin to rise again, for there is nothing more wrong with that than a first-class company with strong assets borrowing against them. This country has strong assets both at home and abroad.
The alternative is far worse, for it would mean giving up the 5 per cent. target for growth and full employment. Not that we have yet got full employment—far from it—with 800,000 unemployed. Precisely because industrialists are not cheering what the Chancellor has been doing in the running of the nation to bring it to its present state, industrialists are more realistic than hon. Members opposite, and they have not been investing during the last 2½ years.
The same applies to the question of parity. The danger is that, having got over the temporary insanity of believing that any change is an offence against the Queen and the Union Jack, we may now start believing that regular devaluations will be the answer to all our problems. They will not. I do not know what the right parity would be—1·80 as some have suggested, 2·0 or 2·20—I only know that we need to change the parity whenever the moment is right, while recognising the cost and not holding it to too high a rate as a sort of patriotic virility symbol. I hope that the Government will not be tempted to fix the rate too soon and too high.
I come to the question of investment. If we are to achieve the level of investment needed, we shall require greater confidence in a stable economy, and we have certainly not had that, as the current level of investment has shown. We should need to sustain a high level of public expenditure, and it would be foolish and dishonest to pretend that this would not create a short-term balance of payments problem, for to pretend that would mean that, when it came about, the Government would once more not be ready to face it.
It is dangerous to talk of a high level of personal consumption being possible at this time. Any such suggestion does the greatest possible harm to our democratic structure because, as the Chancellor must know, given the rest of the figures in

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his White Paper and elsewhere, it would just not be possible. We see from Mr. Wynne Godley's memorandum printed in the House of Commons Paper that it would be doubtful whether the Government could achieve anything remotely like the 4·8 per cent. given in the White Paper. Wynne Godley has argued that even if the Chancellor is to achieve a sustained level of 3½ per cent. growth over the period, with a high rate of investment together with a reasonable level of stock building, there could well be a nil amount available under the right hon. Gentleman's proposals for personal consumption.
That is the situation, and, as my hon. Friend the Member for Ashfield rightly said in his thoughtful contribution, the need is for greater public expenditure. Referring to his own constituency, he spoke of such things as schools, and the same applies in my own and many other constituencies. Our amendment picks out two items of public expenditure, though my hon. Friends could pick out many others. Housing was the subject of a major debate yesterday so I shall say little about it now, but there are many figures which could be cited, given the time, showing the number of dwellings, the millions of dwellings, without basic amenities. In that situation, deliberaately to plan an average annual reduction in housing expenditure of 3·2 per cent. is criminal. Coming at a time when the Government need maximum cooperation from ordinary people, it is criminally stupid.
But if that were not bad enough, the Government are also planning to increase defence expenditure by 2·4 per cent. average per annum. That is from a situation in which we are already spending about 5 per cent. of our GNP on defence. Defence expenditure by our partners in the EEC is at levels nothing like our own. In Belgium they spend 2·3 per cent.; in Denmark 2·4 per cent.; in France 3·1 per cent.; in West Germany 2·8 per cent.; in Italy 2·6 per cent.; in Luxembourg 0·9 per cent.; in the Netherlands, 2·9 per cent. and in Norway 3·1 per cent. It is absurd that we alone should be devoting that degree of public expenditure to defence, at the expense of other desperately needed items of public expenditure in housing, education and many other areas of social need. It is
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therefore disgraceful that the Government should be considering increasing defence spending.
It is impossible to look at public expenditure in isolation. That is like a one-eyed accountant looking at a balance sheet and seeing only the expenditure and not the income. If the Government wish to win approval for their pleas for pay restraint, whether voluntarily or statutorily, they must adopt a much more intelligent approach to both expenditure and income. If they had that intelligent approach they would not need a statutory policy. But without that intelligent approach a statutory policy does not stand the faintest chance of working.
Turning to the income side, for the last two years the Chancellor has consistently distributed taxation, and his back benchers now complain about an unbalanced Budget. He has been handing out tax concessions to those who are certainly not on the bread line and now he expects those who are on it, or who are not far from it, to accept a voluntary system of restraint. It is vital that the Chancellor must win such acceptance if he is to find the funds for investment. If the truly lower-paid, including the pensioners, are to be cared for and if growth in real incomes and a consistent level of increased public expenditure are to be maintained, he must produce a vastly different tax and social policy.
It is because of what the Government have failed to do in public expenditure, because of the way they have distributed their income, and because of their priorities in public expenditure that we condemn them. I therefore have not the slightest hesitation in asking my right hon. and hon. Friends to support our amendment.
9.28 p.m.
The Minister of State, Treasury (Mr. John Nott): I shall deal with some of the remarks of the hon. Member for Heywood and Royton (Mr. Joel Barnett) in a moment or two but first I should like to deal with the debate in general.
Last year when the House discussed the White Paper on Public Expenditure several speakers said that the occasion was more important to them than the Budget debate. That view has certainly been echoed in recent Press comment.

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My right hon. Friend the Member for Taunton (Mr. du Cann) commented along those lines. He also said that he considered the debate so important that it should be conducted from the Dispatch Box by a very senior Minister. It is a matter of regret to me as well as to him that I am not a more senior Minister, but the remedy lies more in his hands as chairman of our back-bench committee than it lies in mine. What we can all agree upon is that today's debate has been of very high quality and has raised many important points.
Public expenditure and our programmes for it are a reflection of every facet of Government policy. I echo the comments of the hon. Member for Heywood and Royton on the Expenditure Committee. It does an excellent job throughout the year under its various chairmen. Under the Committee's guidance it is necessary that the House should act as a sounding board for the nation in making known its view on the priorities implied in the programmes.
It is equally important, as many of my hon. Friends have emphasised today, that the overall total of Government expenditure in the medium term is planned in such a way that it does not exceed the demands that may reasonably be made on our limited resources, that it concentrates on those elements which are best met through the public sector as opposed to the private sector and that it should be shaped so as to assist the wider objective of rapid and sustained economic growth, upon which an improvement in the standard of living of everyone depends. In all those respects I thought that today's debate was excellent. The debate has drawn some critical fire here and there from my hon. Friends but it has been more concerned with the real political issues at stake than with the rather more technical aspects of the White Paper.
I do not have a great deal to say about the speech of the hon. Member for Heywood and Royton, because much of what he said is more appropriate to the Budget debates, which are coming up in a few weeks' time. The short-term prospects that the hon. Gentleman discussed are obviously more appropriate to be discussed then rather than on an occasion when we are primarily concerned with
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a medium-term programme for public expenditure.
Nevertheless, knowing the policies that the hon. Gentleman's party is developing and having read something of the Press releases put out recently on behalf of the joint Labour Party and TUC team, I must be allowed one reminiscence. I do not know whether the hon. Gentleman remembers but the four Front Bench spokesmen in this debate once made a journey together, when our rôles were reversed. When I think of the torrential volume of public expenditure that is likely to come if, unfortunately for the country, the Labour Party ever has an opportunity to implement anything again, I am reminded of the Englishman who went to Canada and was shown Niagara Falls. A Canadian said to him "You don't have anything like that in England, do you?" The Englishman replied "No, we don't have anything like Niagara Falls, but we have a couple of plumbers who would put it right'. When Opposition Members made their speeches on public expenditure I thought that in a way their would-be Treasury spokesmen were rather like a couple of plumbers—
Mr. Joel Barnett: We would be stopping the hon. Gentleman's leaks.
Mr. Nott: It is clearly necessary, in the light of this debate, to emphasise again that public expenditure must be viewed in two timescales, neither of which should ever predominate over the other. First—and this is the primary function of the White Paper—it is important to see how present policies, many of them of a long-term nature, are likely to develop over a period of years. This ensures that the impact of the public sector is related to the resources likely to be available over a similar period. That is the object of the public expenditure surveys and the related assessment of medium-term economic trends.
At the same time we must be prepared to adjust these plans for short-term reasons. These changes in the medium-term programme may involve a speeding-up of the rate of growth of spending, as they have over the past two years, to curb unemployment. [Interruption.] Opposition Members laugh, but I should like to know—
Mr. Gwynoro Jones: What sort of adjustment is a situation involving a

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reduction in taxation and public expenditure and cash grants two years ago of £1,000 million followed by an increase this year of £1,200 million and an introduction of cash grants?
Mr. Nott: I was referring to the high rate of unemployment which confronted the country. I do not think that my right hon. Friend, in demand management terms, can be criticised for making tax cuts in those circumstances, quite apart from the fact that they were desirable in any event.
Mr. Joel Barnett: Is the hon. Gentleman really saying that when the first White Paper was issued by his right hon. Friend indicating the level of expenditure in 1972–73 and 1973–74, and when he made his cuts, he always had in mind to increase it to the levels we have now?
Mr. Nott: I can assure the hon. Gentleman that I will deal with that matter.
Mr. Dalyell: Answer the question.
Mr. Nott: That is incorporated in the Opposition's amendment. I will deal with the point. I was saying that it is reasonable in the short term, when unemployment is unacceptable—and every hon. Member on the Opposition side would agree that a year ago the unemployment levels were unacceptable—to have a temporary speeding-up of the rate of growth and of spending. In the same way it would be possible to have a slowing-down of programmes, but these adjustments must always be made with one eye on the medium-term position.
The House will not expect me to discuss the short-term prospects as my right hon. Friend will be making his Budget Statement next month. All I can do now is to underline the dual nature of the targets.
Mr. Sheldon: I do not think that the House would find any objection to £1,200 million being spent, even if it did not lie within the plans of the Government, if its purpose was to provide employment. If it was to provide money for the counter-cyclical reasons, everybody would be happy about that. However, according to the hon. Gentleman's own figures in the White Paper, less than £200 million was provided for the troughs in expenditure, less than £200 million for counter-cyclical reasons, leaving £100 million unaccounted for.
Mr. Nott: Obviously I will deal with that point. The difficulty is that, I anticipate, the hon. Gentleman has been looking at the wrong page throughout the debate. When the moment comes I will draw his attention to the correct page and we will proceed from there.
Successive White Papers often show marked changes in the pattern and total of planned expenditure. A detailed analysis of the more important changes since the last White Paper has been provided to the Expenditure Committee, and within the last day or so it has been published by the Committee for the information of the House.
It seems to me that the policy element in these changes is not as much a matter of surprise, still less of reproach, as some hon. Members suggest. It was extremely wise action for the Government to have taken. World prices, the terms of trade and the rate of growth of productive potential are not directly within the Government's control. Expenditure conditions have to be continuously adjusted to the changing economic environment and not simply in the short term. When viewed in that light the changes between Cmnd. 4829 and Cmnd. 5178 are a demonstration of the Government's readiness to be flexible when that is what the situation demands.
The Government are doing no more than following the recommendations of the Expenditure Committee, which said that the use of public expenditure to correct short-term deficiencies of demand should be an essential element of policy. Although the hon. Member for Heywood and Royton and the hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne (Mr. Sheldon) are both members of the Expenditure Committee, they have put their names to the Amendment.
Mr. John Roper: The Expenditure Committee's report last year made it clear that such counter-cyclical expenditure should only be in carefully controlled items of expenditure which should be of a very short-term nature, and not as done by the Government.
Mr. Nott: At the appropriate moment I shall answer that point. I shall also draw the attention of the hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne to the correct page.

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Where it is wrong to compare one White Paper with another in the way that has been done is to assume that one is dealing with a static and not a dynamic situation. It is, for example, impossible to imagine that the authors of the White Paper Cmnd. 4324—the Labour Government—would not have used public expenditure to stimulate demand in 1971 and 1972. Are the Opposition seriously suggesting that they would have stuck to the programme outlined in that White Paper in face of high unemployment? Of course not. They would have changed the following White Paper. That is precisely what we did in order to deal with the economic situation.
It might at this juncture be helpful to the House to make a brief comment on the public sector borrowing requirement, because several of my right hon. and hon. Friends have raised the point. My hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South (Sir H. d'Avigdor-Goldsmid), the Chairman of the Expenditure Committee, my right hon. Friend the Member for Taunton and others referred to it.
The action we have taken over the past 18 months to stimulate the economy and bring down unemployment has inevitably meant a big borrowing requirement for the public sector. This borrowing requirement does not mean that current expenditure is not being covered by current revenue. On the contrary, the public sector has a very substantial surplus on its current account. But this surplus is not sufficient to finance its massive capital investment programmes and the lendings of the Government to other sectors for such things as aid to industry and export credit. For these purposes the sector needs to borrow.
There is nothing profligate in that, because it is sound policy that the borrowing requirements should be high when the economy is underemployed. The essential thing is to ensure that the total demands of the public sector are consistent with the general objectives of economic policy. It has been said that a large borrowing requirement is inflationary because of its effects on money supply. Several of my hon. Friends made the point. There is certainly a danger that this can be so.
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But the public sector borrowing requirement is only one element in changes in the money supply, and its monetary impact depends on how it is financed. As my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall, South said, to the extent that it is matched by sales of public sector debt—gilt-edged securities, national savings and local authority paper—outside the banking system its expansionary effects will be neutralised. We aim, of course, to finance a substantial part of the borrowing requirement outside the banks, and we have been successful in doing just that. I think that some of my hon. Friends may not appreciate that the most important expansionary factor in the growth of money supply has not been the public sector borrowing requirement but bank lending to the private sector.
Mr. Bruce-Gardyne: The impact of the public sector borrowing requirement may not be direct but surely it is indirect, because indirectly it expands the credit base of the banks and has thereby generated the ability of the banks to lend, which has in turn led to the enormous increase in money supply.
Mr. Nott: That certainly can be so, and it was because of the emerging public sector borrowing requirement towards the end of last year that my right hon. Friend made two calls for special deposits. This was done specifically with the intention of preventing an expansion of the joint stock banks' credit base.
I must refer to productive potential, to which the hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne also referred, because this is an important point. In the short term the growth of the economy will be determined by a variety of factors, one of which will be the extent to which slack exists in the economy at the beginning of the period under consideration. But, as has been suggested, in the medium and even more in the longer-term, it is the underlying growth of productive potential in the economy, the rate at which it can grow at a constant pressure of demand, which determines the additional resources available for use.
Historically, during the 1960s productive potential probably grew at around 3 per cent. a year, with some slight increase in the latter part of the period. The more

581
recent behaviour of the economy is very difficult to interpret and the views of outside experts differ widely. The Department of Applied Economics favours a figure of about 3 per cent. Professor Paish on the other hand, who is a well-known authority in this field, put forward only a few weeks ago estimates suggesting that productive potential has recently grown by between 4 and 4½ per cent. and that for the remainder of the 1970s 4 per cent. would be a pessimistic assumption. He felt that the figure could easily be 5 per cent. The uncertainty about the future rate of growth of productive potential is one of the main reasons why, in table 1.2—the resources table around which a great deal of the debate has centred—we show two alternative rates of growth.
Perhaps I may add to what my hon. Friend the Chief Secretary said earlier in the debate and emphasise that the rates chosen do not purport to represent the extremes of a possible range. The 3½ per cent. is in line with those who take a less sanguine view of this period and the 5 per cent. illustrates those who take a more optimistic view. Both fall within the range of what may broadly be called sensible hypotheses.
As my hon. Friend the Member for South Angus (Mr. Bruce-Gardyne) said, it is true that 3½ per cent. is itself rather better than the past long-term growth rates of the United Kingdom economy. But we must allow for the fact that in the base year 1971 there was a good deal of unused capacity in the economy which, with the current rate of growth, justifies the expectation of a better average growth performance over the period to 1977.
Mr. Ridley: What worries us is that the target for public expenditure is usually met and often exceeded, whereas the target for growth is rarely met and is often very much less. Over a period of years this leads to an ever greater share of the GNP being in the public sector. Will my hon. Friend devise means of adjusting public spending so that it might be slightly more flexible downwards, just as the growth achieved has often been?
Mr. Nott: My hon. Friend is aware of table 1.2, which shows clearly that between 1971 and 1977 current rates of public expenditure leave adequate room, on either of the two growth rate
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assumptions, for a reasonable rate of privately financed consumption. In dealing with the White Paper—the medium-term situation—the resources table shows that the Government expenditure is planned and is not growing too fast. I do not deny that we have to look at these things in two timescales. The shorter timescale is a matter for my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer and not for this debate.
My right hon. Friend the Member for Stafford and Stone (Mr. Hugh Fraser) thought that there was a considerable amount of demand-pull inflation at present. He may hold that view, but it would be more appropriate for him to await my right hon. Friend's Budget Statement, which will naturally, include a great deal of material on this point.
Mr. Sheldon: When will the Minister come to the counter-cyclical question? He said that the table was the wrong one. We are still waiting to see why he disagrees with the fact—for fact it is—that the Government are to spend £1,200 million more in 1973–4 but only £200 million for counter-cyclical reasons. I hope that he will deal with this.
Mr. Nott: The hon. Gentleman has been very patient. He will find the answer on page 115, table 3.15 headed
"Policy and estimating changes since Cmnd. 4829."
If he adds up the bottom line he will find that those figures total £600 million to £700 million and not the £200 million to which he has been referring. His confusion arises on table 1.3 because throughout the debate he has been referring to the top line headed "Counter-cyclical measures" but he may not have read what is in the brackets. It says,
"(additional to those in Cmnd. 4829)".
Mr. Sheldon: I thought that this might be the point. This was the point the specialist adviser referred to when he advised us on this matter. This is additional expenditure for 1973–4, over and above what the hon. Gentleman is mentioning. We now have an additional £1,200 million of which £200 million is to ease the problems of high unemployment and so on. The other £1,000 million is not for such things, and is a distortion of public expenditure.
Mr. Nott: The hon. Gentleman has got it wrong. The total amount of counter-cyclical expenditure is on page 115 and amounts to £600 million to £700 million.
Mr. Joel Barnett: Against which figure?
Mr. Nott: I must press on.
Let me come now to the point raised by the hon. Members for Cornwall, North (Mr. Pardoe) and Ashton-under-Lyne about the publication of revenue figures alongside the public expenditure figures. Supporters of this proposal say that they will be able to tell, if we include a revenue total, whether taxes will have to go up or down.
Is this so? There are two principal problems. The first is that the level of taxation is not determined simply by public expenditure. It also depends crucially on other and much less predictable factors, such as the, requirements of demand management. Because these demand management factors are short term it is not right to take account of them in a five-year outline of resource availability. They would largely invalidate any projection we sought to make on the level of taxation in a particular year.
Second, while public expenditure can be expressed without too much difficulty in constant price terms it is very much harder to do this for taxation on any realistic basis because the range of assumptions are so much wider. I was a member of the Expenditure Committee at the time that it asked the Treasury to produce revenue figures. The point made to us then was that the projections could be misleading because of the effects of the various assumptions and also that they were of little operational value.
We did not take kindly to this negative advice but we were persuaded that a much more valuable piece of information would be something from the medium-term assessment. It was in response to that request that the resource table has been included on this occasion. I can assure the House that it was purely a coincidence that the table was included at a time when I was translated to the Treasury.
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I come now to the Opposition amendment. This regrets both the "initial cuts" made in public expenditure by the Government and what it calls the "unplanned increases" that have occurred since. Much of what my hon. Friend the Chief Secretary and I have said goes far to refute this caricature of the true position but I must answer some of the points made directly. The 1970 cuts were neither irresponsible nor indiscriminate. As my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer made clear in his statement on 27th October of last year, they were the consequence of the Government's determination to concentrate their activities and their expenditure on those tasks that they alone could perform. At that time we cut indiscriminate and widespread subsidies and, within the total reductions then made, found room for more generous improvements in social security benefits to take care of the less well-off.
The example of a cut which the Opposition single out for special mention is housing. But what we announced in 1970 was the elimination of indiscriminate housing subsidies, Riving instead more help where it was most needed and freeing resources for better use elsewhere. In other fields the same philosophy was adopted so as to focus a higher level of expenditure on to those places where assistance was most wanted and thus avoid the waste of resources inherent in the less discriminating policies of hon. Gentlemen.
Mr. Fernyhough: Will the hon. Gentleman give way?
Mr. Nott: No, I am afraid I have not sufficient time to give way any more.
There is one important point on housing. A good deal of rebuke has come from Opposition benches about the housing situation. Let me draw attention to the fact that gross public investment in housing between 1968–69 and 1970–71 fell by £325 million. Here are we being condemned by the Opposition. Yet in the last years when they were in office the housing programme actually fell by £325 million. Within these figures subsidies rose. Local authority houses completed fell from a total of 188,000 in 1968 to 176,000 in 1970. I find it difficult to understand how the Opposition can criticise us for our housing programmes.

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I want now to say a few words about defence. The increases in defence expenditure fall mainly into three categories. First there is the acceleration of certain shipbuilding and aircraft purchases not only for defence reasons but also as part of the Government's wider programme for stimulating employment. Secondly there are the considerable costs of peace-keeping in Northern Ireland which until 1973–74 have been contained within defence budget ceilings. Thirdly there are the extra costs arising from improvements in recruiting and last year's military facilities agreement with Malta. None of these increases constitutes a modification of defence policy for which, as the Opposition amendment implies, the Government should be censured.
I deal finally with the figures about which the hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne was concerned. They are those expenditures totalling between £600 million and £700 million undertaken to stimulate economic activity in the short term, as right hon. and hon. Members opposite have been saying. Had they remained in office, would not they have indulged in this kind of stimulation to the economy? Of course they would have primed the pump. Surely they are
aware that this is a proper use of the public sector spending power, and it should be applauded because of its beneficial social effects. It should not be derided by the cheap debating points that right hon. and hon. Gentlemen on the Opposition side have made.
There are increases in expenditure in pursuit of the Government's industrial and regional policies exceeded only in size by the increases in social security.
The primary aim of these new policies is to bring new economic life to those areas suffering most from the evil of heavy and persistent unemployment and to bring into productive use that part of our industrial capacity which at present is lying idle.
The whole House knows that when the Labour Government came to power—
Mr. Walter Harrison Mr. Walter Harrison (Wakefield) rose in his place and claimed to move, That the Question be now put.
Question, That the Question be now put, put and agreed to
Question put accordingly, That the amendment be made:—
The House divided: Ayes 196, Noes 223.

Division No. 51.]

AYES

[10.0 p.m.

Abse, Leo

Cunningham, Dr. J. A. (Whitehaven)

Grant, George (Morpeth)

Albu, Austen

Dalyell, Tam

Griffiths, Eddie (Brightside)

Allaun, Frank (Salford, E.)

Davidson, Arthur

Griffiths, Will (Exchange)

Allen, Scholefield

Davies, Denzil (Llanelly)

Grimond, Rt. Hn. J.

Archer, Peter (Rowley Regis)

Davies, G. Elfed (Rhondda, E.)

Hamilton, James (Bothwell)

Armstrong, Ernest

Davies, Ifor (Gower)

Hamilton, William (Fife, W.)

Ashton, Joe

Davis, Terry (Bromsgrove)

Hamling, William

Atkinson, Norman

Deakins, Eric

Hardy, Peter

Barnes, Michael

Dell, Rt. Hn. Edmund

Harrison, Walter (Wakefield)

Barnett, Guy (Greenwich)

Dempsey, James

Hattersley, Roy

Barnett, Joel (Heywood and Royton)

Dormand, J. D.

Healey, Rt. Hn. Denis

Benn, Rt. Hn. Anthony Wedgwood

Douglas, Dick (Stirlingshire, E.)

Heffer, Eric S.

Bennett, James (Glasgow, Bridgeton)

Douglas-Mann, Bruce

Hooson, Emlyn

Bidwell, Sydney

Duffy, A. E. P.

Houghton, Rt. Hn. Douglas

Bishop, E. S.

Dunn, James A.

Huckfield, Leslie

Blenkinsop, Arthur

Eadie, Alex

Hughes, Rt. Hn. Cledwyn (Anglesey)

Boardman, H. (Leigh)

Edelman, Maurice

Hughes, Robert (Aberdeen, N.)

Booth, Albert

Brown, Robert C.(N'c'tle-u-Tyne,W.)

Edwards, Robert (Bilston)

Hughes, Roy (Newport)

Brown, Hugh D. (G'gow, Provan)

Edwards, William (Merioneth)

Hunter, Adam

Buchan, Norman

Ellis, Tom

Irvine, Rt. Hn. Sir Arthur (Edge Hill)

Buchanan, Richard (G'gow, Sp'burn)

English, Michael

Janner, Greville

Butler, Mrs. Joyce (Wood Green)

Evans, Fred

Jay, Rt. Hn. Douglas

Campbell, I. (Dunbartonshire, W.)

Ewing, Henry

Jeger, Mrs. Lena

Cant, R. B.

Faulds, Andrew

Jenkins, Hugh (Putney)

Carmichael, Neil

Fernyhough, Rt. Hn. E.

John, Brynmor

Castle, Rt. Hn. Barbara

Fisher, Mrs. Doris (B'ham, Ladywood)

Johnson, James (K'ston-on-Hull, W.)

Clark, David (Colne Valley)

Fitch, Alan (Wigan)

Johnson, Walter (Derby, S.)

Cocks, Michael (Bristol, S.)

Fletcher, Ted (Darlington)

Jones, Barry (Flint, E.)

Cohen, Stanley

Foot, Michael

Jones, Dan (Burnley)

Concannon, J. D.

Ford, Ben

Jones, Rt. Hn. Sir Elwyn (W.Ham,S.)

Conlan, Bernard

Forrester, John

Jones, Gwynoro (Carmarthen)

Corbet, Mrs. Freda

Galpern, Sir Myer

Jones, T. Alec (Rhondda, W.)

Cox, Thomas (Wandsworth, C.)

Garrett, W. E.

Kaufman, Gerald

Crawshaw, Richard

Gilbert, Dr. John

Kelley, Richard

Crosland, Rt. Hn. Anthony

Golding, John

Kinnock, Neil

Cunningham, G. (Islington, S.W.)

Gourlay, Harry

Lambie, David

Lamond, James

Ogden, Eric

Silverman, Julius

Lawson, George

O'Halloran, Michael

Skinner, Dennis

Leadbitter, Ted

O'Malley, Brian

Small, William

Lee, Rt. Hn. Frederick

Oram, Bert

Spriggs, Leslie

Lestor, Miss Joan

Oswald, Thomas

Stallard, A. W.

Lewis, Arthur (W. Ham, N.)

Padley, Walter

Steel, David

Lewis, Ron (Carlisle)

Paget, R. T.

Stewart, Rt. Hn. Michael (Fulham)

Lipton, Marcus

Palmer, Arthur

Stoddart, David (Swindon)

Loughlin, Charles

Pardoe, John

Stonehouse, Rt. Hn. John

Lyon, Alexander W. (York)

Parker, John (Dagenham)

Strang, Gavin

McBride, Neil

Parry, Robert (Liverpool, Exchange)

Summerskill, Hn. Dr. Shirley

McGuire, Michael

Pavitt, Laurie

Thomas, Jeffrey (Abertillery)

McMillan, Tom (Glasgow, C.)

Pendry, Tom

Tinn, James

Mahon, Simon (Bootle)

Perry, Ernest G.

Tope, Graham

Marquand, David

Prescott, John

Tuck, Raphael

Marsden, F.

Price, William (Rugby)

Urwin, T. W.

Marshall, Dr. Edmund

Probert, Arthur

Varley, Eric G.

Meacher, Michael

Reed, D. (Sedgefield)

Wainwright, Edwin

Mellish, Rt. Hn. Robert

Roberts, Albert (Normanton)

Walker, Harold (Doncaster)

Millan, Bruce

Roberts, Rt. Hn. Goronwy (Caernarvor)

Wallace, George

Milne, Edward

Roderick, Caerwyn E.(Brc'n&R'dnor)

Weltzman, David

Mitchell, R. C. (S'hampton, Itchen)

Roper, John

White, James (Glasgow, Pollok)

Molloy, William

Ross, Rt. Hn. William (Kilmarnock)

Whitehead, Phillip

Morgan, Elystan (Cardiganshire)

Rowlands, Ted

Whitlock, William

Morris, Alfred (Wythenshawe)

Sandelson, Neville

Williams, W. T. (Warrington)

Morris, Charles R. (Openshaw)

Sheldon, Robert (Ashton-under-Lyne)

Wilson, Alexander (Hamilton)

Morris, Rt. Hn. John (Aberavon)

Short, Rt. Hn. Edward (N'c'tle-u-Tyne)

Moyle, Roland

Silkin, Rt. Hn. John (Deptford)

TELLERS FOR THE AYES:

Mulley, Rt. Hn. Frederick

Silkin, Hn. S. C. (Dulwich)

Mr. Joseph Harper and

Murray, Ronald King

Sillars, James

Mr. Donald Coleman.

Oakes, Gordon

NOES

Adley, Robert

Dykes, Hugh

Iremonger, T. L.

Alison, Michael (Barkston Ash)

Edwards, Nicholas (Pembroke)

Irvine, Bryant Godman (Rye)

Allason, James (Hemel Hempstead)

Elliott, R. W. (N'c'tle-upon-Tyne, N.)

Jenkin, Patrick (Woodford)

Amery, Rt. Hn. Julian

Emery, Peter

Jennings, J. C. (Burton)

Archer, Jeffrey (Louth)

Eyre, Reginald

Jessel, Toby

Baker, Kenneth (St. Marylebone)

Farr, John

Johnson Smith, G. (E. Grinstead)

Baker, W. H. K. (Banff)

Fenner, Mrs. Peggy

Kaberry, Sir Donald

Balniel, Rt. Hn. Lord

Fidler, Michael

Kellett-Bowman, Mrs. Elaine

Bennett, Sir Frederic (Torquay)

Finsberg, Geoffrey (Hampstead)

Kershaw, Anthony

Benyon, W.

Fisher, Nigel (Surbiton)

Kilfedder, James

Berry, Hn. Anthony

Fletcher-Cooke, Charles

King, Evelyn (Dorset, S.)

Biffen, John

Fookes, Miss Janet

King, Tom (Bridgwater)

Biggs-Davison, John

Fortescue, Tim

Kinsey, J. R.

Blaker, Peter

Foster, Sir John

Kirk, Peter

Boardman, Tom (Leicester, S.W.)

Fraser, Rt. Hn. Hugh (St'fford & Stone)

Kitson, Timothy

Body, Richard

Gardner, Edward

Knight, Mrs. Jill

Boscawen, Hn. Robert

Gibson-Watt, David

Knox, David

Bossom, Sir Clive

Gilmour, Sir John (Fife, E.)

Lambton, Lord

Bowden, Andrew

Goodhew, Victor

Lane, David

Braine, Sir Bernard

Gower, Raymond

Langford-Holt, Sir John

Bray, Ronald

Grant, Anthony (Harrow, C.)

Le Marchant, Spencer

Brown, Sir Edward (Bath)

Gray, Hamish

Lewis, Kenneth (Rutland)

Bruce-Gardyne, J.

Green, Alan

Lloyd, Ian (P'tsm'th, Langstone)

Buchanan-Smith, Alick (Angus, N&M)

Grieve, Percy

Longden, Sir Gilbert

Buck, Antony

Griffiths, Eldon (Bury St. Edmunds)

Loveridge, John

Burden, F. A.

Grylls, Michael

Luce, R. N.

Butler, Adam (Bosworth)

Gumrner, J. Selwyn

MacArthur, Ian

Chataway, Rt. Hn. Christopher

Gurden, Harold

Maclean, Sir Fitzroy

Chichester-Clark, R.

McMaster, Stanley

Churchill, W. S.

Hall, Miss Joan (Keighley)

McNair-Wilson, Michael

Clark, William (Surrey, E.)

Hall, John (Wycombe)

McNair-Wilson, Patrick (New Forest)

Clarke, Kenneth (Rushcliffe)

Hamilton, Michael (Salisbury)

Madel, David

Cooke, Robert

Hannam, John (Exeter)

Maginnis, John E.

Coombs, Derek

Harrison, Col. Sir Harwood (Eye)

Mather, Carol

Cooper, A. E.

Haselhurst, Alan

Maude, Angus

Cordle, John

Hawkins, Paul

Maudling, Rt. Hn. Reginald

Corfield, Rt. Hn. Sir Frederick

Hayhoe, Barney

Maxwell-Hyslop, R. J.

Cormack, Patrick

Hicks, Robert

Meyer, Sir Anthony

Costain, A. P.

Higgins, Terence L

Mills, Peter (Torrington)

Critchley, Julian

Hiley, Joseoh

Crouch, David

Hill, John E. B. (Norfolk, S.)

Miscampbell, Norman

Crowder, F. P.

Hill, James (Southampton, Test)

Mitchell, Lt.-Col.C.(Aberdeenshire, W)

Dalkeith, Earl of

Holland, Philip

Mitchell, David (Basingstoke)

d'Avigdor-Goldsmid, Sir Henry

Hordern, Peter

Moate, Roger

d'Avigdor-Goldsmid, Maj.-Gen.Jack

Hornby, Richard

Molyneaux, James

Digby, Simon Wingfield

Hornsby-Smith, Rt. Hn. Dame Patricia

Money, Ernle

Dodds-Parker, Sir Douglas

Howe, Rt. Hn. Sir Geoffrey

Monks, Mrs. Connie

Douglas-Home, Rt. Hn. Sir Alec

Howell, David (Guildford)

Morgan, Geraint (Denbigh)

Drayson, G. B

Hunt, John

Mudd, David

du Cann, Rt. Hn. Edward

Hutchison, Michael Clark

Nabarro, Sir Gerald

588

589

Nicholls, Sir Harmar

Russell, Sir Ronald

Temple, John M.

Nott, John

Sandys, Rt. Hn. D.

Thomas, John Stradling (Monmouth)

Onslow, Cranley

Scott-Hopkins, James

Thomas, Rt. Hn. Peter (Hendon, S.)

Oppenheim, Mrs. Sally

Shaw, Michael (Sc'b'gh & Whitby)

Thompson, Sir Richard (Croydon, S.)

Osborn, John

Shelton, William (Clapham)

Trew, Peter

Owen, Idris (Slockport, N.)

Shersby, Michael

Turton, Rt. Hn. Sir Robin

Page, Rt. Hn. Graham (Crosby)

Simeons, Charles

van Straubenzee, W. R.

Parkinson, Cecil

Sinclair, Sir George

Vickers, Dame Joan

Percival, Ian

Skeet, T. H. H.

Waddington, David

Pike, Miss Mervyn

Smith, Dudley (W'wick & L'mington)

Walder, David (Clitheroe)

Pink, R. Bonner

Speed, Keith

Walker, Rt. Hn. Peter (Worcester)

Price, David (Eastleigh)

Spence, John

Walker-Smith, Rt. Hn. Sir Derek

Proudfoot, Wilfred

Sproat, Iain

Walters, Dennis

Pym, Rt. Hn. Francis

Stainton, Keith

Ward, Dame Irene

Quennell, Miss J. M.

Stanbrook, Ivor

Warren, Kenneth

Redmond, Robert

Stewart-Smith, Geoffrey (Belper)

Wells, John (Maidstone)

Reed, Laurance (Bolton, E.)

Stodart, Anthony (Edinburgh, W.)

White, Roger (Gravesend)

Rees, Peter (Dover)

Stoddart-Scott, Col. Sir M.

Wolrige-Gordon, Patrick

Rees-Davies, W. R.

Stokes, John

Woodhouse, Hn. Christopher

Ronton, Rt. Hn. Sir David

Stuttaford, Dr. Tom

Woodnutt, Mark

Rhys Williams, Sir Brandon

Sutcliffe, John

Wylie, Rt. Hn. N. R.

Ridley, Hn. Nicholas

Tapsell, Peter

Younger, Hn. George

Ridsdale, Julian

Taylor, Edward M.(G'gow, Cathcart)

Roberts, Michael (Cardiff, N.)

Taylor, Frank (Moss Side)

TELLERS FOR THE NOES:

Roberts, Wyn (Conway)

Taylor, Robert (Croydon, N.W.)

Mr. Oscar Murton and

Rossi, Hugh (Hornsey)

Tebbit, Norman

Mr. Marcus Fox.

Rost, Peter

Question accordingly negatived.
Main Question put and agreed to
Resolved,
That this House takes note of the White Paper on Public Expenditure to 1976–77 (Command Paper No. 5178.).

SALMON AND MIGRATORY TROUT
10.11 p.m.
The Minister of State for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (Mr. Anthony Stodart): I beg to move,
That the Salmon and Migratory Trout (North-East Atlantic) Order 1972, a copy of whch was laid before this House on 23rd January, be approved.
Mr. Speaker: I think that it will be for the convenience of the House if we take the three orders dealing with salmon and trout together.
Mr. Gavin Strang: I agree, Mr. Speaker.
Mr. Stodart: I am grateful to the Opposition for agreeing that we should discuss these orders together. All three are designed to ensure that measures are taken to safeguard stocks of these fish.
Perhaps I might begin by congratulating the hon. Member for Edinburgh, East (Mr. Strang) on his promotion to the Opposition Front Bench and say that I know he will speak from it with all the authority that he has shown from the back benches.
At present the regulation of fishing for salmon and migratory trout is achieved through one order which is due to expire on 14th February. The proposals in the draft orders now before the House will continue what are, broadly, the same arrangements. However, we propose that some relatively minor administrative changes should be made. It is simpler to deal with these in three orders rather than combine the revised arrangements in a single one which might be more difficult to understand.
The North-East Atlantic Order provides for continuing the existing ban on fishing for salmon and migratory trout by British fishermen in the area of the North-East Atlantic Fisheries Convention. This area includes the North Sea and the waters round the British Isles.
As the House will know, we in this country have pressed for some time that members of the Commission should agree measures to safeguard stocks in international waters, and proposals have been agreed at recent meetings. The effect of the order now before the House is to
592
enable us to continue to fulfil our international obligations which we have been anxious to achieve. We propose that the order should run for 10 years, although changes could be made in the meantime if that proved necessary.
The first of the "prohibition" orders relates to the waters off England and Wales. It proposes no change in Government policy. However, we are suggesting in this order that there should be a change in the administrative arrangements for licensing fishing. At present river authorities are responsible for this in the 0–3 mile belt of our fisheries limits. The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food issues a very much smaller number of licences to fishermen for the 3–12 mile belt.
We consider that these arrangements can now be simplified without affecting the actual fishing. Under the arrangements arising from this order, river authorities would become solely responsible for issuing licences to catch salmon and migratory trout. Their jurisdiction would extend over our exclusive fisheries limits. 0–6 miles, which coincides with the limits of their powers for fisheries purposes. This proposed administrative change will give the responsibility for licensing to the local bodies who are best equipped to deal with detailed matters like these. The proposals have been agreed with the river authorities, and they are most unlikely to have an effect upon catches or on how much fishing there actually is.
The No. 2 Prohibition Order covers the controls over fishing for salmon and sea trout in Scottish waters and off the mouth of the Tweed. It has a very full battery of precedents to guard it. Since 1962 there has been a ban on fishing by drift-net within the fishery limits off Scotland, and since 1971 on other specified methods also. The Salmon and Migratory Trout (Prohibition of Drift-Net Fishing) Order 1962, the operation of which was extended four times by the Labour Party, and the Prohibition Order of 1971, made by the present Government, all had the same objective—to maintain a ban on drift-net fishing for salmon in Scottish waters and off the mouth of the Tweed until the situation could be finally resolved in the light of decisions on the Hunter Report on Salmon and Trout Fisheries in Scotland as a whole.

593
In November 1971 my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Scotland announced in the White Paper on the subject that it was the Government's intention to make the ban on drift-net fishing for salmon off the coast of Scotland and the Tweed permanent. I do not propose to repeat the considerations which led the Government to this decision. They are fully set out in the White Paper, and I am sure that hon. Members on both sides of the House are acquainted with them.
Along with the other orders this one has been made for a 10-year period. This leaves no room for doubt as to our intention to ban drift-netting permanently. It is not permissible in terms of the enabling legislation to do this by order, but the order will be overtaken by permanent legislation as soon as the parliamentary timetable allows for its introduction.
I hope that this explanation will have made our intentions clear. I commend the orders to the House.
10.17 p.m.
Mr. Gavin Strang: There can be no argument about the need to conserve our salmon and migratory trout stocks. Although the fishermen complain from time to time about the methods we employ to do this—and I have had a number of complaints from my local fishermen about the fact that they cannot drift-net for salmon, as no doubt have hon. Members on the Government side of the House—the fishermen themselves are as conscious as, if not more conscious than, anyone else of the need for these conservation measures.
I should like, however, to refer to three aspects in relation to these orders—first, the general question of maintaining our salmon stocks. At the tenth meeting of the North East Atlantic Fisheries Commission, which took place in May of last year, several of the delegations outlined the various forms of research which they were carrying out into the migratory patterns of salmon. These tagging experiments showed a very poor rate of return, and there is argument whether this is because of pollution in the rivers or because of heavy fishing in the high seas. But whatever the reason, this poor rate of return represents a heavy loss for those countries which have invested in the artificial rearing and farming of salmon.
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Britain has a number of such programmes. I understand that one was established last May at Almondbank, only two miles from where I was brought up, the other at Loch Kinnardochy. What progress has been made in those programmes? Will the Minister comment on the general research work? As the Hunter Report acknowledges, all our conservation measures must be based on the results of adequate research.
The second aspect relates to the first prohibition order. The Minister said that he was not merely continuing the prohibition of salmon fishing between six and 12 miles off the coast of England and Wales. He said that he was also altering the licensing arrangements between nought and six miles. The order makes no reference to this. I assume that this means that the Ministry can do this without writing it into the order.
This is an important matter, because these changes are by no means uncontroversial. The first change is that, instead of the Ministry issuing licences between three and six miles, the power will be transferred to the river authorities, so that river authorities will have responsibility for all licences between nought and six miles. The second change, as foreshadowed in Monday's debate on Second Reading of the Water Bill, is that the functions of river authorities, including these functions, will be transferred to the new water authorities.
Both changes are controversial. There is concern amongst fishermen about them. What consultations took place regarding the change the Minister announced tonight? The Minister said that he had consulted the river authorities. Did he consult the fishing interests? If my information is correct, the Fisheries Organisation Society was not consulted. I hope that the Minister can assure us that full consultation will take place about the second change, namely, the transfer from the river authorities to the proposed new water authorities.
The third aspect is the Scottish position The ban on drift netting for salmon follows the first report of the Hunter Committee in 1963. The policy has been accepted by Governments of both political complexions since then. The second report of the Hunter Committee which was issued in 1965 went much further

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and stated that commercial fishing for salmon should be permitted only in the river and by methods allowing the catch and the escapment to be measured with reasonable accuracy.
The White Paper "Salmon and Freshwater Fisheries in Scotland", which was published in 1971, explained why the Government believe that the Hunter Committee proposals for new methods of river fishing were impractical, in particular the suggestions for trap fishing. However, the Government should make clear whether they accept the broad statement that fishing should take place only in the river—in other words, that we shall phase out all commercial netting of salmon off the coasts.
The White Paper says that the Government will license the operation of fixed-engine fishing for salmon. I should like to know how urgent the Minister thinks it is that this should be done. After all, we have not had drift netting off our coasts in Scotland for some time, but we do have a considerable amount of netting of salmon off the coast by fixed engines and other methods. Will the Minister say whether he thinks it is urgent that action be taken to control this system, and will he say when the Government intend that this licensing system referred to in the White Paper will be introduced?
I note that the orders refer to a period of 10 years. Could the Minister explain why that period was chosen? It would be useful to know whether this has any bearing on the negotiations which took place with the European Economic Community. Is it just a coincidence that this period is roughly the same as the 10-year period which we have on our limits? It is only an informational point, but it would be useful to know.
I shall be grateful if the Minister will answer some of the points that I have raised. May I say that I am grateful for his kind remarks to me at the beginning of his speech. I conclude by saying that the Opposition support these orders.
10.26 p.m.
Mr. Patrick Wolrige-Gordon: I should like to congratulate the hon. Member for Edinburgh, East (Mr. Strang) on his speech from the Front Bench. I am sure that if he
596
continues to perform in that dulcet fashion, my right hon. and hon. Friends will look forward to hearing from him on the Front Bench on many occasions in the future.
I do not think the occasion should pass without pointing out that but for the fact that, largely as a result of the Government's policy, the inshore fishing industry is enjoying exceedingly successful and prosperous times, the introduction of this order would be much more controversial than it is. It makes almost permanent the Government's resolution to ban drift netting in Scotland. In 1962 that was a major event. It was deeply felt by the inshore industry. It was the first time, so far as I am aware, that men were prohibited from using their skill to catch whatever they could of the wealth on the high seas, and, although the hon. Member for Edinburgh, East is quite right in saying that fishermen are aware of and welcome conservation measures, they are convinced that those measures must be fair, must be seen to be fair and must apply to everybody.
There are two bones of contention which, as my hon. Friend the Minister of State knows, particularly affect the Scottish inshore fleet from the point of view of fairness. I refer first to the English situation. We have been given to understand from time to time that the present system of drift netting under licence in England was in a sense a practice which was under constant review. Fewer and fewer licences were going to be issued. It was a diminishing trade. Tonight, the announcement by my hon. Friend has been not of a diminution in this practice but of a surrender by the Government of the responsibility for the control of that practice.
I should like to be told by my hon. Friend whether it is known what is to be the policy of the river boards who are to be responsible for licensing. Will they be phasing out this obviously dangerous practice of drift netting on the high seas? What is going to happen to drift netting in England? That is a major and justifiable cause of feeling among Scottish fishermen.
The other major question concerns our partners in the Common Market. When the Minister opened the debate he spoke about discussions on conservation measures among European countries. I

597
did not understand from what he said whether there were firm guarantees about the practice of European fishing boats coming up to the six- and 12-mile limits and drift netting for salmon. Will the Minister make the position clear when he replies? A number of fishermen in my constituency feel that they have no chance of fishing for salmon within 67 miles of the British coast yet boats from the Common Market countries can come within 12 miles. Not only is that unfair, but if the conservation policy including the ban on drift netting is to be justified the practice must be stopped. If it is not, all the benefits of conservation of salmon stocks will be lost.
10.33 p.m.
Mr. J. Grimond: Before we pass the order the House should be aware that the whole course of legislation on salmon fishing is regarded round Scotland as being heavily biased in favour of the interests of the riparian owners and letters. We all agree that conservation is important for all fishing stocks. But no one can deny that the main threat to salmon and migratory trout now, as always, arises from netting in the rivers. In spite of that many rivers have done extremely well in recent years and those that have not done well have been threatened more by disease than by excessive fishing in the sea. Important as conservation is, it should be seen to be fair. The Government must realise that it has proved very difficult to get the facts and the figures on catches and the amount of money made by large interests in the rivers—facts and figures which would enable us to determine where the main threat to conservation lies.
My second point is that there has been a great deal of talk lately of a change not only in feudal but in udal law. Udal law has important repercussions on riparian fishings. My constituents do not have great interests in drift netting for salmon at present. But they have considerable interests in their udal rights to netting round the coast. That is not in dispute in the order, but I take the opportunity to say that we shall certainly regard any orders introduced to further the interests of the river owners and to abolish the udal rights of crofters and others in my constituency as peculiarly biased.
598
There are very real problems in the rights of crofters to net migratory trout, and salmon when they occur in the waters around the coast of Orkney and Shetland. In view of the large sums paid to certain people for the loss of value of such rights—and we all remember what Lord Lovat was paid, rightly or wrongly, for the extinguishment of rights on a river that he owned—any attempt by the Government to extinguish crofters' rights without protecting their legitimate means of fishing and without giving them compensation for loss of rights which have been a part of the law of Orkney and Shetland for a long time will be ill thought of.
10.35 p.m.
Mr. John M. Temple: It is rather presumptuous of me, as President of the National Council of Salmon Netsmen of England and Wales, to speak on the orders, because they mainly concern Scotland. But I should like to give them a warm welcome and to explain to my hon. Friend the Member for Aberdeenshire, East (Mr. Wolrige-Gordon) that in England and Wales we have rather different controls over drift netting and all kinds of netting for salmon than are operative in Scotland. Under our arrangements I think that everything is reasonably under control and matters work relatively satisfactorily.
I give a particular welcome to the special order for the North-East Atlantic, because it goes far wider than the confines of England and Wales.
In the future Scotland may adopt the enlightened policies that we have in England and Wales. I hope that that will happen, because we have managed to achieve a reasonable balance between the rodsman's and the netsman's interests. The problem has been different in Scotland. I can recommend our approach. I hope very much that in the orders to come similar arrangements will appertain to Scotland.
10.37 p.m.
The Under-Secretary of State for Home Affairs and Agriculture, Scottish Office (Mr. Alick Buchanan-Smith): I add my congratulations to the hon. Member for Edinburgh, East (Mr. Strang) in welcoming him to his position on the Opposition Front Bench. We welcome him because of his knowledge and the interest he has

599
shown in agriculture and the fishing industry. He has considerable knowledge in particular of agriculture and the scientific aspects of the industry. We shall all benefit from his contributions to our debates from the Opposition Front Bench. We are very glad to have him with us tonight.
I thank the House for the general welcome it has given the orders. I am sure that we are doing the right thing if we are properly to conserve and look after a national asset.
We welcome my hon. Friend the Member for City of Chester (Mr. Temple) to the debate. This is the first time so far as I remember that he has spoken in a drift-netting debate, but his interest in salmon generally is well known to the House. I am sure that we shall benefit from his experience in this and other debates. I have noted his points.
The right hon. Member for Orkney and Shetland (Mr. Grimond) raised a very technical matter on udal law, one that I faced when I was in his constituency last summer. I appreciate the concern caused to those involved, and note the right hon. Gentleman's points. We shall have to watch for anything in future legislation that may affect the position.
The right hon. Gentleman also questioned the accuracy of some of the statistics on fisheries catches around the coast of Scotland, particularly salmon catches. From time to time there has been representations to us about the nature of the statistics and how they are collected. They are published in our fishery tables every year very fully, and I believe very accurately. Some people would like to see them broken down into areas. I think that was the right hon. Gentleman's point. We have resisted that because the statistics at their lowest level are collected on a confidential basis from commercial concerns, particularly in the netting industry, and we have had to respect the confidentiality of those from whom we obtain the statistics. They are added together to give us the overall picture on which our policy is based, and I believe that that generally gives an accurate picture.
Mr. Grimond: I am constantly astonished that the Government should accept that. Why should they be confidential?
600
Every other industry in this country makes returns—for example, coal and steel. Why not the salmon fishing industry? The rest of the fishing industry makes returns. Why not make returns public district by district and river by river?
Mr. Buchanan-Smith: If the right hon. Gentleman will reflect for a moment he will realise that individual firms are not forced to publish their individual returns. If that applied to the salmon netting industry it would be a completely new move and a complete breach of the confidence in which we get the statistics, which we put together to compare areas and so on. Nothing would be served by publishing the returns of individual firms involved in the netting industry. In any case, it would be a retrograde step so far as confidentiality is concerned. It is a principle that has not been adopted for other industries.
I appreciate the interest of my hon. Friend the Member for Aberdeenshire, East (Mr. Wolrige-Gordon) in this matter. It has been a continuous and consistent interest over the years that we have had these debates. The fishermen who in an earlier period were interested and effective in this form of fishing when the original ban was introduced are relatively prosperous at present. That has probably dulled some of the representations that my hon. Friend might otherwise have made. I have a constituency similar to that of my hon. Friend and I know that amongst certain fishermen this is still a matter of concern. It is right that we should recognise that is so.
The hon. Member for Edinburgh, East raised two points in particular, the first being the respective positions in Scotland and the North-East of England. The reason for the difference is that drift netting is not the traditional method of fishing for salmon in Scotland. The drift netting which developed off the Scottish coast in 1961 and 1962 was a new development which threatened to grow rapidly into trouble. The exploitation of stocks was threatened. The traditional method of fishing in Scotland, as the House will know, is by what is called bag nets and fixed nets. That is the method which is used with few exceptions in Scotland. In England drift netting is the traditional method of fishing for salmon in the sea.
In each case there has been no interference with what might be regarded as

601
the normal method of fishing and the extent of exploitation, but this has produced the result, to which the hon. Gentleman referred, of differences in the waters off each country.
The scale of fishing off England and Wales as a whole has always been very much lower than the fishing which developed off the Scottish waters in 1961 and 1962. Whilst it is true for Northumberland especially that there has been some expansion, in the number of licences issued, the catch, up to 1970, also went up. I know that that is a cause of concern to salmon interests in Scotland, and I have received representations from fishermen in my constituency. However, I do not share the view—and I think the whole House will agree that this is a poor view to take—that because fishing is allowed to continue off Scotland there should be no harm in allowing the former method to re-start in Scotland.
Mr. Temple: My hon. Friend is liable to fall into a slight error. In fact, the major catching of salmon by netsmen in England and Wales is by bag nets and fixed nets and only a minor proportion is by anything that might be construed as drift netting.
Mr. Buchanan-Smith: Perhaps I was not clear in emphasising that I was making the point in relation to the Northumberland coast. My hon. Friend the Member for Aberdeenshire, East was referring solely to the Northumberland fishing. That was the context in which I was replying on this aspect. I accept that in other areas the fixed engine is used.
What should not be overlooked is that at the present time the Northumberland River Authority has made byelaws restricting the fishing season in its southern area, where the major increase in fishing has taken place, and is reducing the length of net permitted. In addition, a net limitation order has been made which has restricted considerably the number of licences for fishing in that area. There can be no question of there being unrestricted fishing in the area off the Northumberland coast. Taking that into account, together with the traditional background. I do not think there is any unfair discrimination between the two countries.
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My hon. Friend also asked about drift netting in the high seas off the United Kingdom and how foreign fishermen might be affected in relation to our own. Under the North-East Atlantic Fisheries Commission agreements, to which the main fishing countries in the European Economic Community have subscribed, there is a complete ban on drift netting for salmon within the so-called "box" around the United Kingdom. This box extends to about 150 miles from the Scottish coasts.
Thus, fishermen from these EEC countries are not free to come and drift net just outside our fishing limits, and it is doubtful whether, even if they were allowed to do so, it would be worth their while to undertake that form of fishing. Elsewhere in the Commission area, there are places where EEC fishermen, although not British, can fish for salmon for a short open season each year, a period of about two months. But British fishermen do not take part in such fishing and have made no representations to be allowed to do so.
Mr. Simon Wingfield Digby: Can my hon. Friend say exactly where that area is, and whether he is satisfied that the south coast of England, along which the salmon no doubt migrate to the Dorset, Frome, Avon and Test, is protected?
Mr. Buchanan-Smith: The box is all round the United Kingdom. I cannot define exactly the other areas within the jurisdiction of the Commission but if I can get the information I will give it to my hon. Friend the Member for Dorset, West (Mr. Wingfield Digby).
Mr. Wolrige-Gordon: I thank my hon. Friend for covering the case I put. Are our fishery protection vessels empowered to enforce the policy of the convention?
Mr. Buchanan-Smith: Yes. We are increasingly co-operating in these international agreements and our Scottish fishery protection cruisers have taken part in supervisory expeditions already. We intend to continue to play our part in the policing of these international agreements.
In that miraculous way in which we sometimes get information in this House, I have here a map which shows the whole of the North-East Atlantic Fisheries

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Commission area, and if my hon. Friend the Member for Dorset, West, would like to see me after the debate I will let him see it. The whole area around the United Kingdom—including the south-west coast —and Ireland as well is in the box area to which the Commission applies.
The hon. Member for Edinburgh, East, asked why the order was for 10 years. There is nothing sinister in the choice of 10 years. He need not look for mice under the bed. The period has no connection with the EEC. It is simply regarded as a convenient period for the order to run.
The hon. Gentleman asked when the Government would introduce a Bill to follow the White Paper published a year ago. He knows how busy are the Scottish Grand Committee and the Scottish Standing Committee with legislation. It will not be this year. We hope to introduce a Bill at the first opportunity. I am sure the hon. Gentleman will not expect me to anticipate the timing of future legislation.
The hon. Member for Edinburgh, East, also asked what consultation there had been with fishermen who operate off the Northumberland coast. We consult the river authorities, on which fishermen are represented. The Northumberland river authority is the only one which is affected by the six to 12-mile limit. Representatives of commercial fishermen who are appointed to the authority by the Minister were in complete agreement with our proposals. To that extent there was consultation with them.
Mr. Strang: The Minister is saying that the fishermen's organisations were not consulted. Is it not normal practice when there is a change in the regulations affecting fishermen to consult not only bodies on which fishermen happen to be represented along with other people but to consult the organisations which represent the fishermen?
Mr. Buchanan-Smith: The hon. Gentleman misunderstands the situation. We work through the river authority, which has day-to-day control. On that body the fishermen are represented. There is nothing unusual in the way it was done, and no points of difficulty were raised by those who represented commercial fishing interests. If the hon. Gentleman has
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evidence of dissatisfaction with this procedure, I shall be glad to hear of it. The hon. Gentleman has put forward no such evidence tonight. If he has evidence I am prepared to look at it and consider whether the procedures can be improved. The procedures on this occasion were adequate and no difficulties have arisen.
Mr. Strang: May I suggest that on future occasions the Minister at least consults the Fisheries Organisation Society? He must be aware of the importance of this organisation.
Mr. Buchanan-Smith: I shall look at this point, but I cannot give any undertaking because I am not aware that there is dissatisfaction. It appears that the hon. Gentleman is not aware of any dissatisfaction and has simply plucked this point out of the air. If there is dissatisfaction my hon. Friend will look into it. The way in which we have proceeded on previous occasions has been acceptable to those concerned.
In England and Wales research on salmon problems is carried out at the Ministry's Salmon and Freshwater Fisheries Laboratory. Currently expenditure on salmon research, other than into diseases, is running at £90,000. This research programme covers salmon population studies, and methods of automatic electronic counting of salmon stocks under the auspices of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.
The laboratory also plays an active part, in collaboration with the Department of Agriculture and Fisheries in Scotland, and other nations, in the investigation of the effects of international high seas fisheries for salmon in the north and north-west Atlantic, that is the Greenland area.
This latter programme involves our scientists in working in Greenland and on research and commercial vessels in the area. This is in addition to home-based efforts. Research on matter other than diseases is taking place at a Freshwater Fish Laboratory at Pitlochry. A considerable amount of research is being conducted, at an annual cost of £100,000 This covers fundamental research into a number of aspects of the biology of salmon and other matters.
Much of the research is concerned with the relationship between spawning stock and recruitment—the word used for those

605
fish who come up to the adult stock stage. Some long-term census studies are being carried out at three sites on the River Dee in Aberdeenshire. Studies are also in progress dealing with rearing salmon. These have been expanded into a pilot investigation into the rearing of 10,000 salmon smolts a year at Almondbank, near Perth. The objective is to investigate fundamental aspects of the life history of salmon, such as the factors affecting the inheritance of those characteristics which influence the period spent in the sea. These are fairly long-term programmes. We have been looking into the effect of the West Greenland salmon fishery and into various disease questions which have been worrying us in recent years. An extensive research programme is being carried out. It is too early to give any definitive results.
As with all fishing debates, this has been an interesting discussion and I thank all who have taken part in it.
Question put and agreed to.
Resolved,
That the Salmon and Migratory Trout (North-East Atlantic) Order 1972, a copy of which was laid before this House on 23rd January, be approved.
Resolved,
That the Salmon and Migratory Trout (Prohibition of Fishing) Order 1972, a copy of which was laid before this House on 23rd January, be approved.—[Mr. Anthony Stodart.]
Resolved,
That the Salmon and Migratory Trout (Prohibition of Fishing) (No. 2) Order 1972, a copy of which was laid before this House on 21st December, be approved.—[Mr. Buchanan-Smith.]

ADJOURNMENT
Motion made, and Question proposed, That this House do now adjourn.—[Mr. Gray.]

SCOTTISH TOWNS (BYPASSES)
10.58 p.m.
Mr. David Steel: I am glad to have this opportunity to raise the question of the need to provide bypasses for ancient and historic towns in Scotland. I asked for this debate on the specific question of ancient and historic Scottish towns, and I have put in that qualification, although it is obvious that my remarks apply to any town other than those which have
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been built in recent years and have taken account of the need to relieve the town centres of through traffic.
My purpose in wishing to discuss the subject, apart from raising specific constituency matters, is to try to get a definitive statement of the policy of the Scottish Office in this matter. Ever since this Government came to power, the Department of the Environment and the Ministers responsible have made various declarations of policy and have encouraged the concept of removing traffic from the centres of towns within their jurisdiction in England and Wales.
In an interesting report of a working party which was prepared at the request of the then Secretary of State for the Environment for the Stockholm Conference of the United Nations on the Environment, it is said on page 189:
"Local authorities should not allow town centres to be used as through roads for traffic. 'Loop' and other systems should be examined for confining through traffic to circumferential roads. More ring roads should be developed, to allow as many streets as possible within the ring to be physically closed to through traffic."
In the foreword to this excellent report, entitled "How do you want to live?", the Secretary of State said,
"This and other reports will be of the greatest value … Afterwards they will be of help to the Government in developing our policies and proposals in the environmental field."
I am anxious, above all, to have an assurance from the Under-Secretary that the Scottish Office supports and endorses that policy, and I ask for that assurance in relation to problems at present arising in towns in my constituency.
First, it has to be said that in the Border area there has been a tremendous growth in the number of private cars registered in my constituency. There has also been a tremendous growth in the amount of commercial road traffic, naturally, following on the closure of the railway line.
A second aspect of national policy which has affected the increase in road traffic in the area is the completion of the motorway network from London right up to the M6 north of Carlisle. This has brought a welcome increase in tourist traffic to the area.
Looking at what has happened in the ancient towns in the Border area of

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Scotland, there are three cases where the public authorities—in two cases the Scottish Development Department and in one case the county council—are doing the very reverse of the policy which I described a moment ago.
I take first the town of Hawick, where the A7 goes through the High Street which on occasion, as I saw myself last Saturday morning, presents a real bottleneck. The Scottish Development Department argued for the need to replace and re-align a bridge at the south end of the High Street. I do not expect the Under-Secretary to comment on this in detail because it was the subject of a public inquiry and we are still awaiting the decision of the Secretary of State on the objections made at that public inquiry. But I hope that the hon. Gentleman will be able to tell us when we may expect that decision. The public inquiry was held in December 1971 and more than a year later we are still awaiting the decision of the Secretary of State.
The interesting feature of these proposals was that the Under-Secretary himself wrote to me in May 1971 arguing that the Department must press ahead with its proposals for the south end of the High Street and not wait for the report of the working party on the development of Hawick because, he said, that was not expected until November 1972 and it was important "for safety reasons" that the bridge be replaced as soon as possible. We are now well beyond the date of the report of the working party. As far as I am aware, the bridge is still standing and carrying traffic. It is important to have a decision on the matter fairly soon.
Far more important, this proposal highlights the fact that so far there are no proposals for a proper re-routing of the trunk route out of the High Street. Instead, the Department has brought forward proposals to make it easier to continue routing the trunk route through the centre of the town.
My second example concerns the same A7, this time as it passes through Galashiels. Again the Under-Secretary and I have been in correspondence on this matter since the summer of last year. Here I will quote a public statement by the Galashiels Town Council last month. It states,
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"Although the proposal for the realignment of the trunk road A7 through the centre of Galashiels has been regarded as a possibility for a considerable number of years, the proposals was not formally intimated by the Scottish Development Department to the Town Clerk until February, 1972. A copy of the Feasibility Study prepared by the Consultants for the Scottish Development Department, which had been reported to the Department in February, 1971, was supplied for the information of the Town Council."
In other words, there was a year's lag while the proposal lay in the Department, unknown to the town council. The town council have said of its decision of December, 1972,
"The Town Council are, and always have been, conscious of the adverse effect which the proposed realigned route would have on the amenity of the Burgh, particularly in the area of Bank Street Gardens and Cornmill Square, and it is their view that the virtual destruction of this very attractive feature of the centre of the town should not be permitted, if there is any practical and acceptable alternative."
That is an important statement, and it contrasts with what the Under-Secretary said to me in a letter in January of this year:
"This recommendation was extensively discussed with the Galashiels Working Party (composed of local officials and technical officers of the Development Department) which, although not entirely happy with the proposed solution, appeared also to accept that physical and engineering considerations effectively ruled out the alternatives."
However that may have been the view of the working party, it is certainly not the view either of public opinion or the town council. I hope that the Department will now consider the possibility of using a part of the now disused railway line in order to remove traffic from the town centre. But, in principle, it seems entirely wrong that the Department should itself bring forward proposals to continue and indeed to develop trunk routes through the centre of the town.
My third case does not stem directly from the initiative of the Department since the A72 road—Glasgow-Peebles-Galashiels—is not a trunk road but it is subject to a 75 per cent. Government grant and therefore to departmental approval. The Peebles County Council is at present putting forward proposals to improve the road through Peebles by realigning the bridge at one end, a case very similar, if I may say so, to that at Hawick—the Cuddy Bridge, as it is known—and, at the

609
same time, it is proposing to demolish the house at the end of the High Street, which was Buchan's house and is of considerable local, historical and architectural importance. The proposal will, I think, have an adverse effect on the present appearance of that end of the High Street. While I concede the need for improved facilities for pedestrians crossing the bridge I do not believe that wholesale alteration like this is necessary except in the interests of through traffic. Again, a relief road of some kind is vital. In these cases at Hawick, Galashiels and Peebles, the public authorities are flying in the face of the declared Government policy.
I turn now to three other places where the sins are not of commission but of omission, and I should be grateful to the hon. Gentleman for any information he can give me tonight. In Selkirk the A7 passes through the centre of the burgh and there has been a proposal, published as far back as 1955, for a bypass of the town. Can the Under-Secretary give us any information as to whether this may he proceeded with some time in the foreseeable future?
In the more specific case of Jedburgh, on the A68, the hon. Gentleman will remember an excellent plan produced in 1964 for the bypassing of the High Street and the ending of a very severe bottleneck into the market place. I understand that financial approval was recently given for the project. Can any information be given tonight about completion dates?
Lastly on this list, there is the question of the A6091 through Melrose—again the subject of a excellent report in 1966. In the meantime, traffic continues through the town and the attractive market place in the centre is cluttered with large traffic signs. At the same time, again, the railway line presents a possible route for a bypass.
The Government are going ahead with the new trunk route across the Tweed and alongside the Tweedbank scheme. I hope that they will proceed at an early date to continue that new route bypassing Melrose and linking up with the A68 to give some relief to that town.
These problems are not by any means confined to the towns in my constituency, but I cite them because I am most familiar with them.
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I was interested in a recent very pleasant tour in the North of Scotland to find, on looking at the town development plan for Tain in Ross-shire, that the local authority was at slight loggerheads with the Development Department on the question whether the trunk road should continue to go through the middle of the town, which is still the view of the Department, and to which the local authority is quite rightly opposed.
The Under-Secretary will have noticed a few weeks ago, when he opened the motorway on the far side of Linlithgow Loch, that this was very much welcomed by the citizens of Linlithgow. In fact, the transformation in the town centre should bring great encouragement to other towns when they see what can be done when through traffic is removed from towns which basically were never built and designed to carry the scale of motor traffic that we have today.
When I read some of the statistics and surveys which are taken, I think that they ignore the occasions when the heavier lorries and cars towing caravans are coming not on business in the towns, but are coming through and are perhaps treated as just one more unit in the statistics, when they have a serious detrimental effect on the environment of these small communities.
I accept that any programme of bypassing towns is bound to be expensive. We should consider that expense in relation not only to an annual road programme but to the effect that it will have in creating a very acceptable environment for ourselves and generations to come. I hope that the Under-Secretary will take this opportunity to dispel any impression which has got about that the Scottish Office has been dragging its feet on this general environmental question.
11.12 p.m.
The Under-Secretary of State for Development, Scottish Office (Mr. George Younger): I am grateful to the hon. Member for Roxburgh, Selkirk and Peebles (Mr. David Steel) for raising what is a most interesting subject not only to the House in general and to those who may study our debates outside but to me personally as I have always been extremely interested in both the preservation of historic buildings as such and in the larger scheme of preservation of our historic towns in general.

611
In thanking the hon. Gentleman for raising this important matter, may I assure him that we in the Scottish Office, regarding not only our roads policy but our policies generally, are every bit as keen as anyone else in any other Department to do all that we can to preserve our historic towns and to insulate them as far as possible against the ill-effects of through traffic.
The historic towns of Scotland are of direct interest to historians and architects alike, but they are not museums. They have a very real life of their own. They are of great value to the tourist industry and provide a very pleasant, high-quality environment for those who live in them. We recognise the importance of all these aspects of historic towns. My right hon. Friend is involved in many, if not all, aspects of their preservation and development. For example, he is responsible for listing buildings of historic or architectural interest, for consulting local planning authorities on planning matters, for conservation area policy, for the promotion of tourism, for regional development and, as the hon. Gentleman has specifically raised tonight, for the planning of new road construction.
In considering whether road bypasses should be provided, my right hon. Friend may be involved in two ways. First, he is the highway authority for all trunk roads in Scotland and, as such, is directly responsible for deciding whether bypasses should be constructed where trunk roads pass through towns.
Secondly, he may have to decide whether grant should be made available towards the cost of bypass schemes on roads for which local authorities are the highway authorities and where the initiative rests with them. I should perhaps point out as a matter of information that within the boundaries of large burghs and cities, with only a few exceptions, the main roads are not trunk roads but are the responsibility of the local authorities concerned. There is, of course, no question of the Secretary of State exercising his roads responsibilities in isolation from his planning and other responsibilities that I have described.
The hon. Gentleman suggested that in the past in our planning we in the Scottish Office had been less active than our English colleagues in paying regard to
612
the needs of historic towns and other towns which are important although not historic. I assure the hon. Gentleman that that is definitely not so, and I should like to refer to a considerable number of towns which have already been bypassed or will be as a result of road schemes planned for the future.
The Council for British Archaeology some time ago produced a list of 57 towns in Scotland which it classed to be of historic interest, and I can tell the hon. Gentleman that of those 12 are already bypassed and a further 23 will be relieved as a result of road schemes now under construction or in an advanced state of preparation.
In undertaking such road schemes we have to consider a wide range of factors, and I am sure the hon. Gentleman will recognise that it would be oversimplifying the matter just to proceed on the assumption that every historic town needs a bypass and that the provision of such bypasses necessarily takes priority over every other aspect of the road programme. It is one of the aspects and one of the objectives of the trunk road programme to relieve as many historic towns as possible of through trunk traffic, but there are other objectives which, in particular cases, may have to take priority even over the degree of historic value that one places on the town concerned.
We aim to provide a comprehensive network of strategic trunk routes which will link the various regions of Scotland with the national network, will ensure that major towns, whether historic or not, are either on or close to the strategic network and will provide quick connections to other major communications, such as ports and airports. In deciding priorities we necessarily give a great deal of weight to relieving congestion and dealing with situations which give rise to accidents, which is every bit as important as the degree of historic value that one might place on the appearance and architecture of any town.
I do not accept that those aims are necessarily in conflict with the general objective of protecting the environment. Indeed, I think that the two go together. It is essential to the life of historic towns and to towns of high amenity value which may not be historic that they should be in good economic heart, and the

613
factors which militate against the proper preservation of our more attractive towns—traffic congestion, noise, fumes, vibration, and so on—also militate against the preservation of an effective system of communications.
As a result of the road programme of recent years we can point to a considerable number of towns which have been bypassed or will soon be bypassed. The hon. Gentleman mentioned Linlithgow. I could add to that Haddington and Ayr, and examples of towns for which trunk road bypasses are planned are Dunblane, Dunkeld, Musselburgh, Perth and Stonehaven, to mention only a few. A bypass of Stirling should be completed before the end of this year. That does not include numerous other towns and villages which may not be of historic interest but which have been relieved of through traffic. A bypass of a town is an important factor, but it is by no means everything. There are many other factors to be taken into account as well.
The hon. Gentleman made specific reference to several of the towns in his constituency, and I should like to say a word about each of them. First, as regards Galashiels. I should like to emphasise that our proposal that the A7 should be improved on a line through Galashiels was put forward with great reluctance. It was only put forward after the most exhaustive investigations. As the hon. Gentleman mentioned, we commissioned consulting engineers and gave them a free hand to suggest solutions to the traffic problems in Galashiels. They examined a whole series of possible road lines, including a by-pass and a line using the route of the disused railway, as well as other routes. But they eventually reported that the best line for the improved A7 was one very similar to that which had originally been shown on the development plan for the past 20 years.
The line of the railway was obviously one that was looked at very hard and carefully, but it was found to be impracticable; not lightly or inadvisedly, but because of detailed and practical engineering difficulties, especially the problem of obtaining the necessary width for the road at crucial points in it, and the problem of providing access to certain of the mills. There were also difficulties
614
of alternative routes for traffic while the road was under construction.
This line was further studied, apart from the consulting engineers, by the Galashiels Technical Working Party, which the hon. Gentleman mentioned. It was especially studied by this working party following the expression of the town council's misgivings about the proposed line through the town. But the working party, which included people from various bodies, including the town council, I think, and the Scottish Development Department, also found that the basic railway route, as it is called, was impracticable.
An outer by-pass was subject to the difficulty that because of its length it was likely to be unattractive to traffic, particularly in view of the small proportion of traffic which wishes to pass through Galashiels. The vast majority of the traffic wishes to start or stop its journey in Galashiels. Other possible lines had to be discarded for engineering reasons and because of their adverse effect on amenity at sensitive points.
I well understand—as the hon. Gentleman has corresponded with me about this—the misgivings in the area about the line that is now proposed. In particular, I understand the misgivings about its possible effect on the Bank Street gardens in Galashiels. We are now investigating further to see whether it is possible to avoid the gardens altogether or whether, at the very least, we may limit any necessary encroachment to the absolute minimum.
I still hope that we may find a solution which will be generally acceptable in the town. But these are still early days, and there is still further opportunity for discussion before we reach a final decision. Any proposals would have to be advertised and would be subject to objections and, if necessary, could be discussed at a public inquiry. So I hope that the hon. Gentleman, who has been most interested in this matter for a long time, will feel that we are not lightly doing something to which the people of Galashiels may object. We are, indeed, doing it with the greatest of care. We have taken every possible step to find a route other than the one through the centre of the town, and if another route proves to be practicable, no one will be more delighted than me.

615
The hon. Gentleman and I have also had correspondence about Hawick and we know the problems involved. As I see it, in Hawick there are two separate issues. The first is the question of the replacement of Drumlanrig Bridge and the improvement of the approaches to the bridge. The second is the question whether trunk road traffic should continue to pass through Hawick High Street. It is generally agreed by all concerned, I believe, that the bridge is weak and that it needs to be replaced as a matter of urgency, as the hon. Gentleman mentioned. But a decision on this does not necessarily prejudice the long-term consideration of the other question, that is, whether trunk road traffic should continue to use the High Street. On that question, we were awaiting the report of the Hawick Working Party, and we received that last December. It will require very careful consideration as it raises many difficult problems. But the working party suggests that as a long-term alternative to the High Street, Commercial Road might be used as a possible route for traffic. As I have said, this needs careful consideration.
It is interesting to note that the proportion of through traffic in Hawick is very low indeed. It is only about 9 per cent. of the total traffic. It may be, therefore, rather difficult to justify proposals for a relief road to deal with only 9 per cent., whereas 91 per cent. of the traffic starts or stops in the town.
There is not much more I can say tonight about Drumlanrig Bridge. The matter was discussed very fully at the public inquiry, at which the hon. Gentleman himself made a useful contribution. We are still considering the report which reached us last September. I hope that the hon. Gentleman will accept from me the assurance that the report is not being pigeon-holed or forgotten, or gathering dust on the shelves of St. Andrew's House. The decision which we must now reach on this matter will be the final decision, and it is very important that the issues are very carefully re-considered at this stage, even if this takes a little time. I hope that the hon. Gentleman will agree that, as we hope to announce a decision fairly soon, it will be well worth ensuring that we make the right decision, even if it takes a little longer to do it.
616
As regards Peebles, the hon. Gentleman acknowledged that this is not perhaps yet directly a matter for the Scottish Office. I know that the local authority is making studies of this and is trying to get a solution to what is a difficult problem. I understand that the county council has agreed to consider whether there is a case for bypassing the High Street area where the A72 principal road passes through the town, but this is a matter for the local authority and it is not for me at this stage, anyway, to give advice to the authority. If the council comes to me, I shall have to consider carefully what it asks. I assure the hon. Gentleman that I will give the matter very warm consideration.
As regards Melrose, there is no specific bypass planned at present, but the county council is considering whether the road link which will serve the Tweedbank development might be expanded eastwards providing an effective bypass of the town. We are not yet in a position where details of this scheme could be discussed. In the meantime I understand that the county council has been considering a shorter term proposal for a relief road within Melrose, which would pass fairly close to the Abbey. We in the Department have pointed out to the county council that the environmental implications of this will require very careful consideration, but the initiative rests with the local authority, since this would be a principal road and not a trunk road. It is difficult for me to comment on the merits of the proposal, because I understand that it would require amendment of the development plan, and the issue could well come to my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for decision in due course, a decision which I dare not anticipate at this stage.
The hon. Gentleman asked about Selkirk. We will shortly be asking the county council, as the trunk road agent authority, to consider possible lines for a bypass of Selkirk. I cannot yet say when the construction work might start.
Proposals for a relief road for Jedburgh are, as I am sure the hon. Gentleman knows, in a very advanced state of preparation in conjunction with the redevelopment of the town, and I am hopeful that we shall achieve notable progress on this before long.

617
To sum up, I thank the hon. Gentleman for raising this useful debate. I acknowledge the importance of historic towns, but I agree with the hon. Gentleman that it is not only the historic nature of towns that matters. It is the protection of towns generally from through traffic wherever that can be done. I assure the hon. Gentleman that we in the Scottish Office—
The Question having been proposed after Ten o'clock, and the debate having continued for half an hour, Mr. DEPUTY SPEAKER adjourned the House without Question put, pursuant to the Standing Order.
Adjourned at twenty-eight minutes past Eleven o'clock.

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  Railways (Capital Investment)
  Railways (Capital Investment)
  Circular 46/65
  Circular 46/65
  M53, Merseyside
  M53, Merseyside
  Sewage Sludge Disposal (Thamesmead)
  Sewage Sludge Disposal (Thamesmead)
  Heavy Traffic (Ampthill)
  Heavy Traffic (Ampthill)
  House Prices (London)
  House Prices (London)
  Leasehold Service Charges
  Leasehold Service Charges
  Inland Waterways (Pollution)
  Inland Waterways (Pollution)
  Unoccupied Properties (Rating)
  Unoccupied Properties (Rating)
  Caravan Sites and Control of Development
  Caravan Sites and Control of Development
  Investment Properties (Rating)
  Investment Properties (Rating)
  Motor Cars (Body Strength)
  Motor Cars (Body Strength)
  A50, Blythe Bridge (Bypass)
  A50, Blythe Bridge (Bypass)
  Rent Assessments (Appeals)
  Rent Assessments (Appeals)
  Rating and Valuation
  Rating and Valuation
  Road Accidents (Casualties)
  Road Accidents (Casualties)
  Market Harborough (Bypass)
  Market Harborough (Bypass)
  North Orbital Road
  North Orbital Road
  Road Building Programmes
  Road Building Programmes
  Railways (Industrial and Dock Areas)
  Railways (Industrial and Dock Areas)
  Motorway Noise
  Motorway Noise
  Rent Rebates (Havering)
  Rent Rebates (Havering)
  Lorry Parks (Hampshire)
  Lorry Parks (Hampshire)
  Housing Demolitions
  Housing Demolitions
  Jarrow, Hebburn and Boldon
  Jarrow, Hebburn and Boldon
  Housing (Public Sector)
  Housing (Public Sector)
  Dual Carriageways (Safety Barriers)
  Dual Carriageways (Safety Barriers)
  M3, Popham-Compton
  M3, Popham-Compton
  Chandlers Ford Bypass
  Chandlers Ford Bypass
  Tree Planting (Grants)
  Tree Planting (Grants)
  Operation Eyesore
  Operation Eyesore
  Wildlife (Airports)
  Wildlife (Airports)
  Maplin
  Maplin
  Neasden Underpass
  Neasden Underpass
SCOTLAND
  Shrieval Bench (Appointments)
  Shrieval Bench (Appointments)
  Rickets
  Rickets
  Physiotherapists (North Ayrshire)
  Physiotherapists (North Ayrshire)
  Small Debt Courts
  Small Debt Courts
  Police Drivers (Insurance Cover)
  Police Drivers (Insurance Cover)
  Moray House School of Community Study, Edinburgh
  Moray House School of Community Study, Edinburgh
  Rating Assessments (Central Heating)
  Rating Assessments (Central Heating)
NATIONAL FINANCE
  Stamp Act 1891 (£10 Penalty)
  Stamp Act 1891 (£10 Penalty)
  Income Tax
  Income Tax
  Land Prices
  Land Prices
  Post-War Credits
  Post-War Credits
  Income and Taxation
  Income and Taxation
  Motor Vehicle Taxation
  Motor Vehicle Taxation
TRADE AND INDUSTRY
  Turbine Blading (Research)
  Turbine Blading (Research)
  Building Industry (Registered Companies)
  Building Industry (Registered Companies)
  Overseas Capital Investment (Insurance)
  Overseas Capital Investment (Insurance)
  Industrial Development Certificates (Northern Region)
  Industrial Development Certificates (Northern Region)
  United States Companies (United Kingdom Subsidiaries)
  United States Companies (United Kingdom Subsidiaries)
  Advance Factories (Northern Region)
  Advance Factories (Northern Region)
  North America
  North America
  Aircraft Movements
  Aircraft Movements
  Concorde
  Concorde
  Maplin
  Maplin
  Civil Aviation (Retrofitting)
  Civil Aviation (Retrofitting)
  Hotel Development Incentive Scheme
  Hotel Development Incentive Scheme
  NORTHERN IRELAND
  NORTHERN IRELAND
AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FOOD
  Dutch Elm Disease
  Dutch Elm Disease
  Coffee (Price)
  Coffee (Price)
DEFENCE
  Bruntingthorpe Airfield
  Bruntingthorpe Airfield
EDUCATION AND SCIENCE
  School Places (Cost)
  School Places (Cost)
  Secondary Education (Expenditure)
  Secondary Education (Expenditure)
  Class Sizes (Staffordshire)
  Class Sizes (Staffordshire)
EMPLOYMENT
  Loddon Viaduct (Accident)
  Loddon Viaduct (Accident)
  Activity Rates
  Activity Rates
  Factories (Inspections and Prosecutions)
  Factories (Inspections and Prosecutions)
  Industrial Accidents
  Industrial Accidents
  Factory Inspectorate (Staff)
  Factory Inspectorate (Staff)
  Abrasive Wheels
  Abrasive Wheels
  Foundries (Safety Regulations)
  Foundries (Safety Regulations)
  Palace of Westminster (Fire Precautions)
  Palace of Westminster (Fire Precautions)
  India (Trade)
  India (Trade)
  Kenya (United Kingdom Passport Holders)
  Kenya (United Kingdom Passport Holders)
  Icelandic Fisheries Dispute (International Court's Jurisdiction)
  Icelandic Fisheries Dispute (International Court's Jurisdiction)
  Anguilla
  Anguilla
  European Parliament
  European Parliament
HOME DEPARTMENT
  Holloway Prison
  Holloway Prison
  Criminology (Report)
  Criminology (Report)
  Rape
  Rape
  Police (EEC Co-operation)
  Police (EEC Co-operation)
  Dangerous Driving (Convictions)
  Dangerous Driving (Convictions)
  Jury Service (Eligibility)
  Jury Service (Eligibility)
  Piddlehinton Camp
  Piddlehinton Camp
  Toiletries (Hexachlorophane)
  Toiletries (Hexachlorophane)
NORTHERN IRELAND
  Rent and Rates
  Rent and Rates
  Polling Station Schemes (Publicity)
  Polling Station Schemes (Publicity)
  Murder (Statistics)
  Murder (Statistics)
SOCIAL SERVICES
  Hypothermia
  Hypothermia
  Disabled Persons (Allowances)
  Disabled Persons (Allowances)
  Family Income Supplement (Civil Servants)
  Family Income Supplement (Civil Servants)
  Hospital Beds
  Hospital Beds
  Abingdon Hospital (Health Centre)
  Abingdon Hospital (Health Centre)
  Censuses (Costs)
  Censuses (Costs)
  War Pensioners' Vehicles
  War Pensioners' Vehicles
  Drug-Taking (Schoolchildren)
  Drug-Taking (Schoolchildren)
WALES
  Council Housing
  Council Housing
  Hospital Pharmaceutical Service
  Hospital Pharmaceutical Service
  Derelict Land
  Derelict Land

Preamble
The House met at half past two of the clock: The Lord Chancellor on the Woolsack.
Prayers—Read by the Lord Bishop of Lincoln.

LORD PORRITT
Sir Arthur Espie Porritt, Baronet, G.C.M.G., G.C.V.O., C.B.E., having been created Baron Porritt, of Wanganui in New Zealand and of Hampstead in Greater London, for life—Was, in his robes, introduced between the Lord Luke and the Lord Brock.

T.A.V.R. AND COUNTY REGIMENT TITLES
2.45 p.m.
Lord INGLEWOOD: My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.
The Question was as follows:
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they will endeavour, so far as is appropriate, to give the battalions to be formed under the reorganisation of the T.A.V.R. the honoured names of the county regiments which recently lost their separate identity.
Earl FERRERS: My Lords, following the creation of the new T.A.V.R. units on April 1, 1971, it is necessary to review the organisational grouping of T.A.V.R. sub-units for command, training and administration. A review will start towards the end of this year. It will not necessarily lead to a re-structuring of battalions, but should this happen, historical and county affiliations will certainly be borne in mind when deciding on any new titles which may be necessary.
Lord INGLEWOOD: My Lords, may I thank my noble friend for that reply, which leaves us not without hope? While appreciating that some counties are too small to become a recruiting area for a whole battalion, may I ask whether in good recruiting areas he will try to avoid
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a battalion's recruiting on both sides of a county boundary and instead have an area entirely within one county? And will he give the battalion the name of its former county regiment, so involving the county again with the Army and providing a magnet for recruiting?
EARL FERRERS: My Lords, I can assure my noble friend that Her Majesty's Government are particularly conscious of the effect and the necessity of territorial recognition with regard to the T.A.V.R. units. In fact, in almost all cases where it is not possible to do this at battalion level it is done at sub-unit or company level.
LORD INGLEWOOD: My Lords, I thank my noble friend.
LORD SLATER: My Lords, can the noble Earl give a reason why there cannot be restoration of the title attached to the county regiments? Does it not mean that we are overlooking the work done and the bravery shown by people of my generation and of others during the last two wars—and particularly the First World War? When we requested permission for miners to come back out of the Armed Forces and into the pits to produce the coal required at that particular time, we were turned down by the Ministry of Labour until such time as the register of unemployed miners was cleared. I remember—
THE MINISTER OE STATE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, AND SOCIAL SECURITY (LORD ABERDARE): My Lords, I think it would be more in order if the noble Lord were to put his interesting speech in the form of a question.
LORD SLATER: My Lords, I am sorry to trespass on the time of the House. Is the noble Earl aware that committees were set up at that time to traverse the country to try to carry out the edict of the Ministry of Labour, particularly to try to get these people off the unemployment register?
EARL FERRERS: My Lords, I think I should need notice of the historical point to which the noble Lord, Lord Slater, makes reference. The point with which he is concerned is, I believe, similar to the one with which my noble friend was concerned: that people

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should be able to identify themselves and the regiment they are in with the area from which they come. As an example of the type of complication which this causes, I would draw the noble Lord's attention to the 5th Light Infantry Battalion which recruits from Shropshire, Herefordshire, Cornwall, Yorkshire and Durham. Obviously, it would be difficult to call the battalion the "5th Light Infantry Shropshire, Herefordshire, Cornwall, Yorkshire and Durham Battalion." Instead, it is described as the 5th Light Infantry Battalion, and those territorial connotations come out in the company names.
LORD SHINWELL: My Lords, may I ask whether the Minister is aware that there is considerable controversy among the members of the Auxiliary Forces about this matter? Also, is he aware that the building up of the Auxiliary Forces is equivalent in importance to obtaining recruits for the Regular Forces and that it is desirable to have territorial connotations in order to attract as many recruits as possible?
EARL FERRERS: My Lords, of course there is bound to be controversy, particularly when there has been the expansion in the Territorial Army that there has been over the last 18 months or so. It is for this reason that my noble friend has requested that a review be undertaken at the end of the year, in which all these points will be taken into account. I would tell the noble Lord, Lord Shinwell, that this is being done by Headquarters United Kingdom Land Forces.
LORD INGLEWOOD: My Lords, may I ask whether my noble friend would not agree that the example he quoted, where five counties were involved, is exactly the form of organisation that I hope the restructuring of the T.A.V.R. will avoid? I did not mention the name of any county in my original supplementary question. Would he not now agree that the last county of the five he mentioned is quite capable of raising a whole battalion, or more than one battalion, on its own?
EARL FERRERS: My Lords, I did not think that the reference to Durham would escape the notice of my noble friend. It is true that it is a very good
1052
recruiting area and is represented both in the Northumbrian Volunteers and in the Light Infantry to which I have referred. But the very point to which my noble friend referred is the kind of subject which will be considered in the review.
THE EARL OF DUNDEE: My Lords, may I ask my noble friend whether he is aware that the historic names of Highland regiments in Scotland do have an appreciable effect on recruiting?
EARL FERRERS: Yes, my Lords, that also is perfectly true.
LORD SHINWELL: My Lords, may I ask the Minister a further question? May we have an assurance that before a decision is reached, presumably by the Ministry of Defence and the military chiefs associated with that Department, members of the T.A.V.R. will be fully consulted, so that at any rate their opinions may be available to the public?
EARL FERRERS: Yes, my Lords, I can give the noble Lord, Lord Shinwell, the assurance that the T.A.V.R. will be consulted at all levels—at company and battalion level, as well as there being consultations with other Departments of the Army and the Ministry of Defence.

LOBSTER STOCKS SURVEY
2.54 p.m.
LORD DERWENT: My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.
The Question was as follows:
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they can yet make a Statement on the result of the survey of East Coast lobster stocks.
EARL FERRERS: Not yet, my Lords. The survey is part of a two-year examination of lobster stocks throughout the United Kingdom. This will be completed in 1973 and it is hoped that a full report will be available early in 1974.
LORD DERWENT: My Lords, I appreciate that the survey team is not yet in a position to give solutions' for' the problem. Would it not be possible to issue an immediate report of what they have been able to find out so far, so

1053
that other people who are interested in this matter and knowledgeable about it can consider their findings?
EARL FERRERS: My Lords, I appreciate my noble friend's concern about this matter. In fact, an interim report is being made by the survey team for my right honourable friend the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. I would ask my noble friend to be patient, because that is a report of work that is being done, and the conclusions which could be drawn from it might be the reverse of those which would be drawn from the final report. At the moment the indications are that pre-emptive measures are not necessary, but I can assure my noble friend that my right honourable friend is very concerned with this matter, and if it is necessary to take any measures, he will take them.
LORD SHEPHERD: My Lords, I am certain that the House is grateful that the Government are concerned. On behalf of my noble friend Lady Serota, may I ask, where have all the lobsters gone? Is it that, like beef, they have now become so expensive that they go to Paris and not to London?
EARL FERRERS: I wondered whether the noble Lord, Lord Shepherd, would get us back on to prices. But I think that the price of lobsters is slightly different from the price of beef to which he referred yesterday. When the noble Lord asks where have all the lobsters gone, I would ask him to be as patient as I asked my noble friend to be, because that is precisely what the survey team is trying to find out.
LORD BLYTON: My Lords, can the Minister say whether this report will include a reference to the taking of berried lobsters out of the sea, which reduces the stocks of lobsters round the East Coast?
EARL FERRERS: My Lords, that is another point with which the survey team is concerned. One of the things which is concerning people most is not that there are not enough eggs laid by the lobsters, but what happens to the eggs after the lobsters have laid them. The noble Lord, Lord Blyton, will also wish to know that the survey team is considering measurements of catches, the size and range of the lobsters caught, the effort of the
1054
industry relative to the catches, the scale of the activities of part-time fishermen and skin divers and so forth and the study of lobster growth and migration, which would include berried lobsters.
LORD POPPLEWELL: My Lords, can the Minister give any indication of when he hopes that the report will be completed? I know that lobster-men, particularly in the Northumberland area, are extremely interested in this matter as it affects their livelihood. They are concerned about the results of this research.
EARL FERRERS: My Lords, it is expected that the report will be ready at the end of the year and published early in 1974.
LORD HAWKE: My Lords, is my noble friend aware that Cornish fishermen are very disturbed about the number of lobsters stolen out of their pots by holiday skin divers.
EARL FERRERS: My Lords, I was aware of that. It is one of the matters that the survey team is looking, into—not into the lobster pots, but into the effect on the lobster population of the activities of skin divers and amateur fishermen.
LORD SHINWELL: My Lords, is the noble Earl aware that we are amazed at his versatility: that he is able to answer questions on Defence matters and on lobster pots?
EARL FERRERS: My Lords, the two things are not disconnected. My noble friend's Question referred to the defence of the lobster population.
LORD BALERNO: My Lords, can the Government give any information about whether the survey team will examine the problem of lobster farming off Scotland and its potential, which I understand is very considerable?
EARL FERRERS: My Lords, I should prefer not to answer that supplementary question off the cuff, but to find out the facts and write to my noble friend. The survey is concerned with the lobster population, what happens to lobsters and where they go; but I would not be prepared to say that it is necessarily concerned with the future farming of lobsters off Scotland.
VISCOUNT ST. DAVIDS: My Lords, is the Minister aware that there is a fine

1055
method used in some places to increase the lobster population, by providing suitable reefs in which the lobsters may hide themselves and lay their eggs? In many places this seems best done by using old motor cars which, if dumped in suitable quantities and in suitable spots, provide splendid hiding places for the lobsters. Is it being considered whether we should have a few artificial reefs round the coast? It would dispose of a number of cars, which some people might think an advantage.
EARL FERRERS: My Lords, in anticipation of the supplementary questions that might be asked, I thought I would try to find out as many of the answers as could, but I am not aware that the possibility of providing cars in suitable places is part of the survey being carried out by the Department concerned.

THAMES PASSENGER SERVICES
3.0 p.m.
EARL OF KINNOULL: My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.
The Question was as follows:
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether any recent studies have been, or are being, made for making better use of the river Thames for water-bus services to assist the acute London traffic problem.
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, a comprehensive study of a fast passenger service for the London river was completed in 1970. The study was commissioned by the Greater London Council, and the cost borne by the Council and the Government. The conclusion of the study was that a fast river service was feasible, and this led directly to the Government's recent offer of a grant of £75,000 towards a pilot hovercraft service between Greenwich, the City and Westminster.
THE EARL OF KINNOULL: My Lords, while thanking my noble friend for that reply, and welcoming the Government support, particularly for the hovercraft service, may I ask of what the service is comprised? May I also ask whether Her Majesty's Government have any idea as to the fares structure?
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, the service which will start this spring will consist of two 60-seat HM2 sidewall hovercraft which will run between Greenwich, the City and Westminster, and the cost of a single journey will be 15p. Weekly season tickets will be available.
LORD AVEBURY: My Lords, is the noble Lord aware that Londoners will greatly welcome anything which takes traffic off the roads? Why is it that these studies have been restricted to the use of the river for passenger services when there are many goods which could equally well be taken up and down on the river, thus removing heavy goods vehicles, which cause so much nuisance, from the centre of London? Will Her Majesty's Government give some attention to this problem, particularly in regard to bulk commodities, such as paper and fuel, which clutter up the roads in central London causing great annoyance in the residential areas?
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, the Government would be delighted if this greater use of the river were to come about. The river is heavily used already. The G.L.C. and the Department are only too delighted to give help to anybody who applies.
LORD POPPLEWELL: My Lords, can the noble Lord say which service is suggested? Is it to be a service for commuters travelling backwards and forwards in this area, or a service more appropriate for tourists and people who want to travel along the river and see the sights?
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, I can tell the noble Lord, Lord Popplewell, that we envisage that all the year round this service will run in the morning from 7.30 until 10 o'clock mainly between Greenwich Pier and Tower Pier, but also to a Westminster Pier to be arranged—it is not quite certain which of the two it will be. Then, in the evening, it is envisaged that the traffic will be travelling from West to East. During the summer period these hovercraft will be used as the company concerned sees fit, for tourist traffic, in order to get the maximum traffic. In case the House is interested, there will be a third hovercraft commissioned in the spring of 1974.
LORD STRABOLGI: My Lords, would the Government consider extending this service Westwards, so that it could be used by commuters who live, for example, in Chelsea and Fulham?
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, it is not really for the Government to do this; it is a matter for the company operating the service. However, the Department regard this pilot service as the possible start of a developing programme to use the Thames as a useful commuter artery; and other councils, such as Bexley, are, with the G.L.C., considering for the future piers at Erith and at Woolwich. The Woolwich pier might well be operating in the next few years.
BARONESS STOCKS: My Lords, would it be correct to assume that the usefulness of the development of the river for public transport is not so much a question of up and down the river as criss-cross the river? Supposing you lived at Thames-mead and wished to work in Dagenham, you would have to go a good way East to get to the Woolwich free ferry. Why should there not be the kind of ferry that takes commuters backwards and forwards all day from the centre of Liverpool to the centre of Birkenhead?
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, discussions are going on now between another company, the G.L.C. and the Department on this matter.
LORD CONESFORD: My Lords, will the Government consider saying "15 pence" rather than "15p"?
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords. I defer to the view of my noble Lord.
LORD RAGLAN: My Lords, if traffic on the river is going to be encouraged there will soon be the same sort of snarl-ups on the river as there are at the moment on the roads; and I can foresee difficulties with me going up and down and the noble Baroness, Lady Stocks, going criss-cross.
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, I accept the noble Lord's point. Probably the main snag here would be the embarking and disembarking points. I do not think the G.L.C.
1058
are likely to license more traffic than the river can hold.
LORD MERRIVALE: My Lords, can my noble friend say to what extent the hydrofoil service between London and Greenwich has been used, and whether, in effect, the hovercraft service is to supersede the hydrofoil service?
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, the hydrofoil service went out of commission because it was not making a profit. There is nothing to stop the company concerned from coming back and starting again. The hovercraft service is by a separate company.
THE EARL OF KINNOULL: My Lords, can my noble friend say whether consultations are taking place with London Transport, particularly with the commuter services, to provide a co-ordinated service for passengers?
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, I think the study, which was completed, as I said in my original Answer, in 1970, considered all this, and the G.L.C. are having discussions with more than one company. If any company can put forward a practical proposition the G.L.C. and the Department will look at it favourably.
LORD WYNNE-JONES: My Lords, did the noble Lord give an answer to Lord Avebury's question about using the river for dealing with heavy traffic as well as passengers'? Can the noble Lord say whether anything is being done to encourage either hovercraft or hydrofoil for this purpose? I think the noble Lord would agree that at the moment, so far as transport of goods is concerned, the traffic is entirely in the neighbourhood of high water.
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, I would point out that the original Question deals chiefly with services for commuters. If the noble Lord would like to put down a Question, I will obtain all the necessary details.
VISCOUNT ST. DAVIDS: My Lords, a few answers ago the noble Lord gave the Government's approval to the spreading of cargo off the roads and on to the waterways in the neighbourhood of London. Can he say whether this includes approval for the recent schemes of the British Waterways Board and other

1059
authorities to transfer cargoes from lorries on to waterways on the periphery of London and so bring them to the docks without cluttering up our streets?
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, I think the noble Viscount has successfully made his point.
VISCOUNT ST. DAVIDS: My Lords, did not the noble Lord give approval to that?
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, I think that is another Question, and I would say again, as I said to the last noble Lord who spoke, that if the noble Viscount will nut down a Question on this point I will deal with it.

ICELAND AND N.A.T.O. BASES
3.8 p.m.
LORD KENNET: My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.
The Question was as follows:
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they are concerned with the negotiations between Iceland and the United States about the evacuation of American forces from the NATO air and naval bases at Keflavik.
THE MINISTER OF STATE, FOREIGN AND COMMONWEALTH OFFICE (BARONESS TWEEDSMUIR OF BELHELVIE): My Lords, the Icelandic Foreign Minister had bilateral discussions with the United States Government from January 24 to 26. Mr. Agustsson said that his projected discussions were not based on the provisions of the defence agreement between Iceland and the United States, but were part of exploratory discussions in his study of Iceland's security and defence.
LORD KENNET: My Lords, have the Americans kept us in touch with what went on in those bilateral conversations? I ask that for two reasons: first, it is a NATO base that those conversations are about, and we are part of NATO; and secondly, because the House might assume that our own conduct in the fishery dispute with Iceland would have a large bearing on the Icelandic attitude in these talks on the base with the United States.
BARONESS TWEEDSMUIR OF BELHELVIE: My Lords, if the United States Government had anything definite to report after that meeting they would report to NATO as a whole. There is no connection between this general review of Iceland's defence matters and the fishery dispute, although of course we bear it in mind, because Iceland is a valuable ally within NATO.

ASHDOWN FOREST BILL [H.L.]
Read 2ª, and committed to a Select Committee.
CITY OF LONDON (VARIOUS POWERS) BILL [H.L.]
Read 2ª, and committed to the Committee on Unopposed Bills.

EUROPEAN SECURITY
3.11 p.m.
LORD KENNET LORD KENNET rose to call attention to the question of European Security; and to move for Papers. The noble Lord said: My Lords, I realise that in opening the debate this afternoon we have a subject before us which is somewhat vague. European security can mean different things to different people. I should perhaps preface my remarks by saying what it means to me. It means, above all, the question of military security, the absence of war and the question of normalising relations between the two halves of our divided Continent.
I do not know whether Europe will achieve any disarmament in our lifetime or in that of our children, or indeed whether it will ever achieve any disarmament before there is a nuclear war—though I am certain that, if there is one, disarmament will be achieved afterwards. But this I do know: history will record that since the end of the Second World War the first two years during which the Governments of Western Europe could responsibly have hoped to see an agreement on arms reduction were 1961 and 1973. In 1961 we had the McCloy/Zorin joint statement of principles on disarmament between America and Russia. I think it is now forgotten how very close the world then was to meaningful disarmament. This year, in 1973,

1061
we have a good chance of seeing the opening of what has now come to be called M.B.F.R., the negotiations on mutual and balanced force reductions in Europe. I say this is only the second year in which Western European Governments could responsibly hope to achieve disarmament. I want to stress that word "responsibly". We could have had unilateral defence reductions of our own any time we wanted—we could have had them, that is, without an increase in security and without even maintaining our security at the level it is at now. What is new is that we now have a chance of getting the arms reductions without reducing our security.
The situation at the moment is so complicated it makes one's head go round. There are four sets of talks, and I shall argue that our best hope lies in getting a correct relation between those four sets of talks. Taken in order of seniority, as it were, in the length of time they have been going on, there is first the Committee on the Conference on Disarmament at Geneva, which has been sitting for nearly twenty years and is multilateral—it contains Eastern, Western and neutral countries. This is the forum which has produced a whole series of arms control arrangements, principally the Non-proliferation Treaty. The second oldest set of talks is the one called SALT, the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, which are going on between Russia and America. They are now about three years old and entering their second working session, which we may expect to last years rather than months. These talks also take place in Geneva and therefore are beside the first set, geographically. The third is the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe, the pour-parlers for which have been going on now for several months in Helsinki. This concerns all the European countries, America and Canada. The fourth set concerns M.B.F.R., the negotiations on mutual and balanced force reductions in Europe, the pour priers for which began last week in Vienna.
Everything depends on the right relations between these four sets of talks. First of all, I should like to ask the Government what is the news about getting China into the C.C.D.G. in Geneva—that is the long-standing set of multilateral talks—because it strikes the eye
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at once that China is an invisible participant in all these four sets of talks—a sort of Banquo at the Four Feasts. If anything was done at any of these talks which China deems to be against her interests it would be only too easy for her to stymie the execution of such an agreement at a later stage. The Chinese have to be got in, and the obvious place to get them in is at the multilateral set of talks in Geneva. I do not think the Government disagree with this view, but I should very much like them to give us news of how it is going on.
We have at the moment this very real hope of disarmament, which has a concrete bearing on Britain's defence policy. We read that the Prime Minister has come back from Washington after discussing with the Americans the future of the British independent nuclear deterrent. Everything hangs here on the succession of weapons systems. We have the Polaris rocket at the moment; and then there is the Poseidon rocket, which the Americans are putting into their submarines to supersede Polaris—which we have not got but might logically want. Thirdly, there is the Trident system, which has not yet begun to be built by the Americans. So in the absence of disarmament we can see many decades ahead.
I am not among those who believe that the date of the phasing out of the British deterrent force should depend solely on the physical fact of rust: that is to say, that when our present rockets decay beyond serviceability we shall never get any more, and that we should take that as the date of our nuclear disarmament. That seems to me a capricious way of proceeding. But it obviously is a fact that when our present force does wear out we shall be faced with the question: do we get another one exactly the same, or do we get one a little better? All I am saying to-day is said in the hope that before that time comes we shall secure multilateral agreement on disarmament arrangements which will enable us to avoid the expensive, distressing, upsetting and provocative necessity of renewing our own submarine force, possibly on a more modern scale.
I should like to ask the Government several what I may call "chestnut" questions. I always ask them: I have never received answers, but I hope that we may

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have answers to-day. There was the question of the Soviet unilateral declaration that they held our strategic nuclear force to he limited by their agreement with the Americans—that is the strategic arms limitation agreement. I have asked the Government many times: why have they done nothing about that? It may be that they have a good reason, but they have never given it. It seems to me odd, if another country says, "I claim that your force is limited" and we do not agree, that we should not ourselves say anything to that country. We have also read in the Press that M. Pompidou, when he went recently to Minsk, said something about the corresponding unilateral declaration which has been made by the Russians with regard to the French independent nuclear force. Can the Government tell us what change he got when he raised it with the Russians, and why we do not? I should like to ask, again—I have asked this question many times—why we have not taken up the Russian invitation to join the little treaty about making the navies a little safer, by getting rid of "buzzing" at sea, and so on. There is a little treaty between Russia and America about this matter, and the Russians have invited other naval Powers to join. I have asked in this House why we do not join, and my honourable friend Mr. Judd has asked in another place; but neither of us has received any answer. Why is this?
Then there is the question of a report from SALT to the disarmament negotiation going on in Geneva. I have asked whether this should not be done by Britain, but again I have had no answer. Of course, a report from SALT to the General Assembly would be just as good. It would be a sign of responsibility to the world as to what goes on on the part of the Great Powers. Since I last mentioned this, there has been a resolution in the General Assembly (it is Resolution 2932B, if the noble Baroness wants to look it up) which called for precisely that: a report from SALT to the General Assembly. Britain stood aside from this Resolution. Why did we abstain? What sort of pusillanimous alliance bureaucracy was it that led us to abstain on that obvious resolution, instead of voting for it?
But the great test of getting the right policy in all these matters is the same as it has always been—the right handling of the 600 Soviet intermediate and medium range missiles which stand in Western Rusia. Those can reach us, and are targeted on us, but they cannot reach America. I have been asking for two years where we are going to discuss this matter. Let me remind the House of what we are talking about. There are 600 of these missiles with ranges of 1,200 and 2,300 miles. They each carry a warhead of 1 megaton—1 million tons T.N.T. equivalent. They have a colossal superiority over anything we have. They have stood there for 15 years threatening us. Until last year there was nowhere where we could talk about it with the Russians. Now there is. I have been asking about it for two years, and my right honourable friend Mr. Callaghan has been asking about it in the House of Commons; neither of us has received an answer. Are the missiles going to be talked about? If so, where? If the Government cannot answer, how can they claim that they take the security of this country seriously? It seems such an enormous matter to brush aside without answering in Parliament.
I hope that the Government will also be able to tell us that the M.B.F.R. negotiations will not only be confined to conventional weapons—some feel they might be. NATO research on this is confined to conventional weapons; they have done nothing about nuclear weapons or, apparently, about chemical weapons. I am sure that the Government are not foolish enough to go into the negotiations with their hands tied and their feet hobbled with a purely conventional weapons approach. If there is no answer on the point about 600 M.R.B.M.s, I shall be forced to conclude—I do not know whether my noble friends will join me in this—that the Government show a pretty casual attitude to the security of this country in this matter, as they do in the whole matter of Iceland. We had a Parliamentary Question just now. The Keflavik base in Iceland is the ears and eyes of NATO. This is what brings us our knowledge of Soviet naval and submarine movements in the Atlantic. No doubt behind the scenes the Government are very worried about this, but I wish they

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would take Parliament a little more into their confidence. The picture they present to the world is of a Government prepared to subject the major long-term interests of the whole alliance to a short-term private interest in the fishery dispute that they are conducting.
Now I turn to the European Security Conference to be held in Helsinki. This is supposed to talk about frontiers. It is a Soviet desire that it should stabilise frontiers. We have to distinguish between inviolability and unchangeability. It is quite right that frontiers should be inviolable, if you mean by that that they should not be violated by force; but I do not think that we could accept that frontiers should be unchangeable, especially not in this year when we have the question of Ireland uppermost in our minds. It is also a curious fact that an agreement on the unchangeability of frontiers would contravene the Soviet Constitution itself, and its Article 17. The Russians are only 53 per cent. of the population of the Soviet Union, and that figure is going down. By 1980 they will he in a minority. The majority of Soviet citizens will be Asians, Ukrainians, Georgians, and whatever. This is bound to give rise to a natural fissiparous tendency in the Soviet Union.
It was for this reason that on December 21 last Mr. Brezhnev made an important speech in which he said that the Soviet nationality and identity had now become more important than the separate national identities of the constituent republics of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Constitution was going to have to be changed. When the change had been formulated it would be put to the Soviet people in a referendum. He did not make it clear whether it was going to be one single all-union referendum, or whether it was going to be a series of separate referenda—one in each republic of the Soviet Union. This is obviously an extremely important matter for the Soviet Union constitutional lawyers to settle. Mr. Brezhnev even seemed to be proposing a constitution for the Socialist community (which I take to mean the Warsaw Pact countries plus Mongolia) analagous to the first Soviet Constitution itself. It seems to the Westerner that there might be a conflict between declaring frontiers to be quite unchangeable and Article 17 of the Soviet Constitution, which allows the free right
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of secession to any one of its constituent republics.
In Helsinki, also, there is to be discussion on the question of the exchange of people and ideas, and on propaganda, and all that. On this point Mr. Brezhnev made a most important declaration. He said:
"We are for comprehensive contacts between the people of various countries, provided one acts in the spirit of mutual respect and non-interference in the affairs of others and not from the positions of the Cold War. It is clear that the Socialist countries do not intend to conduct negotiations with anyone on the dissemination of anti-culture, such as pornography, racial slander, fascism, violence, hostility between the peoples and mendacious and slanderous propaganda."
I think we can all agree that that is well formulated. We shall watch with care how the Soviet Union comes to grips with its own propaganda machine during the course of negotiations in Helsinki.
I should now like to quote from something broadcast by Moscow Radio last week. It said:
"The Tory Government is sticking to its attempts at suppressing by force the growing tide of the democratic movement for social and civic rights for the people of Ireland. This short-sighted policy is dictated in the main by the interests of the British monopolies who are making a fortune out of the poverty and cheap labour of the poorest Catholic section of the Ulster population. In their attempts to keep Northern Ireland as a private preserve of the City of London, the Conservative Cabinet is doing its utmost to ensure that no social changes take place in their European colony. London is in league with the most double-dyed of vocal reaction and does not stop at cruel terror to which about 700 Irishmen have already fallen victim."
I do not think I need go on any longer. There is clearly some way for countries to come in achieving Mr. Brezhnev's ideal about a free and civilised exchange of information.
Turing now to the M.B.F.R. negotiations, how do the Government see the relationship between the Vienna negotiation and the Helsinki negotiation? How about the timing? I am sorry to keep quoting Mr. Brezhnev so much, but he is the only man whose remarks mean anything in Russia, and one has to keep having recourse to him as a source. When waiting for M. Pompidou at Minsk Airport last month he said something extraordinarily important. He said that the question of the balanced reduction of weapons would not be brought up until

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after the security conference. If he meant that, it is rather bad news; and the Government ought to look out for it to make sure that if he was saying that the agreement on a balanced reduction of weapons should not be finalised until after the security conference had come to its first agreements, that would be another matter. But if he meant what he said, that it was not to be brought up until after the end of the security conference, that is a grave statement and I should like to know the Government's views on it.
Now about the M.B.F.R. talks in Vienna. When the Soviet delegation arrived there, the Soviet delegate made a great point about talking about the mutual force reductions, not mutual balanced force reductions. He left out the word "balanced". That very same day I understand that the Austrian Government made arrangements to change all the signposts in Vienna from "Mutual balanced force reductions" to "Mutual force reductions", and changed the notices on the meeting hall and so on. Is this true and, if it is true, what did our Government have to say about that? Did they go along with the Austrian willingness to get rid of what must to us he the cardinal concept of the whole matter? Indeed, since that date there has been a barrage of propaganda from Eastern European capitals attacking the concept of "balanced" and saying that when the West says "balanced" it means "unbalanced". This propaganda does not make sense at the moment; but when you get a wave of nonsense propaganda from Eastern Europe it oftens heralds the emergence of a new line and betokens domestic quarrels inside the Soviet camp.
In any case, why did the Government go along with the Soviet proposal to have these crucial negotiations in Vienna rather than having them in Geneva as had originally been intended? Because it simply makes life very difficult for the small countries; they now have to have their experts scattered around three capitals. They must have them in Geneva for the disarmament negotiations; they must have them in Vienna for the mutual force reduction negotiations, and they must have them in Helsinki for the Security Conference. It is really a bit
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much, and my nasty mind turns to the possibility that the Russians may have done it just in order to make life difficult for everybody except the super Powers, who of course have enough staff to go round thirty capitals, let alone three. It would be helpful if the Government could tell us why they agreed to this, if indeed they did, or whether it was a question of force majeure.
As to balanced reductions, I think myself that it does not really matter whether the reductions are balanced. Who cares about that, and what is a "balanced" reduction? How would you know it if you saw it? What matters is that, after the reductions are over, and at every identifiable stage during the process of reduction, what should be left is a balanced situation. "Mutual balanced force reductions" is shorthand for "mutual force reductions and withdrawals leading to a balanced situation." That should be our attitude in the West: let us proclaim it and not fuss too much so long as it is understood by both sides.
There is a question of the membership of these Vienna talks. Will the Government enlighten us about this?—because at the moment the situation is as clear as mud. We thought that the Russians were going to be very restrictive about these talks and say that they would only come with two or three of their best friends and everybody else must keep out. So we in NATO did something of the same sort and arranged a complicated system whereby Norway, Italy and Greece would come in in rotation as representing the flank countries; and so we presented a tight, narrow front. Now, when we get there, I gather that the Russians are taking exactly the opposite line and are saying that everybody is welcome—all the world and his wife—and if we keep anybody out it will only cause trouble later. They seem to have given way to the Roumania view about this, the view of independent Communist Roumania. If this is so, I myself think it is good news. What is the Government's opinion? Are not the Russians, perhaps, for once being rather helpful, rather far-sighted, and making things easy? If they are making things easy for their own satellites in Eastern Europe, that can only be very good news for us. Those people, too, are human beings; they, too, are Europeans, and every extra little bit of

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freedom they are given we should rejoice at and should, in so far as it lies in our hands, go along with it.
My Lords, the main point I want to refer to (I have already spoken for rather too long) is the importance of information in this whole field. Eyes are better than teeth—
LORD SHINWELL: My Lords, may I venture to ask my noble friend a question? I am listening with great interest to what he is saying, in particular about the proposal for mutual force reductions or mutual balanced reductions. Has he tried to ascertain what is the motivation so far as the Soviet Union are concerned? Is it not simply that they have reached a stage of military expenditure which has become far too burdensome, and they would be very glad to reduce their military expenditure? What does it mean in the long run? If they reduce their military expenditure, military forces, either in manpower or equipment, and the West does the same, what position are we in? Are we not in precisely the same position, relatively, as we were before?
LORD KENNET: My Lords, I think my noble friend is exactly right. We are in precisely the same position, relatively, as before. But we are in the same position, in the same balance, at a lower level of expenditure. This, to my mind, has two advantages. First, we all spend less money on Defence, which means that we can spend more on more important things—and that is just as important to the Russians, who have an even worse housing problem than we have, as one finds out if one goes and looks at it—and also it means intrinsically a slightly safer position from a military point of view, because if fewer weapons and soldiers are lying around there are less likely to be mistakes.
In getting to such a situation. I cannot emphasise enough how important information is going to be. I was just coming to the formulation that eyes are better than teeth, and if we wish to draw our teeth mutually we must put our "specs" on. Over the last year I have been asking in this House about inspection and control of a M.B.F.R. agreement when it is reached. This means that we have to get access to American satellite data, or so at least I have said before. I asked the Government what they were
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doing about that; I received no answer. Assuming we are not doing anything, which I suspect is very likely the case, and assuming that the Government do not wish to disturb the august repose of the super Powers in this matter, would they reflect on the apparent intention of France and Japan to build and launch their own observation satellites within the next few years? Might there not be a joint West European system of satellite observation for the inspection and control of mutual and balanced force reduction agreements? This, at least, would be more constructive than the joint Anglo-French nuclear deterrent which the Secretary of State for Defence seems sometimes to be talking about.
Well, information rather than arms eyes rather than teeth. What can we hope for in the long run? What kind of Europe should we he working towards? I hope that there will come out of the Helsinki and Vienna negotiations a continuing body, or two continuing bodies—one for each, perhaps, with slightly different membership and obviously very different functions. This would be one or two—I hesitate to use the word "bridge" because it has fallen into disrepute, but one or two links or footbridges, if you like, between the two armed camps whose own levels of armament would be falling. In the West we would have the European Community, the integration of which we may be certain will proceed steadily, if not very fast. In the East, they have the C.M.E.A., the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, which corresponds to the E.E.C. although it is not nearly as tight. One may not safely assume that that will increasingly integrate, because integration there means Russian domination and all the others know it.
It will be interesting to get the near end of that footbridge rightly anchored in the European Community. It will be interesting to see how much traffic it will bear; it will be interesting to see how big, how important, a link we can make it between the two halves of Europe. Obviously, the more we democratise our own half, the more important it will be. I imagine that in the long run we shall be seeing a quadrupartite world, a cruciform world, perhaps, cross-shaped. There is already a natural de facto alliance between America and Russia. We can

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see it everywhere, and it makes me rather uneasy. There is a strong coincidence of interest between Western Europe and China. This coincidence is generated simply by the existence of the Russo-American coincidence of interest. It is no bad thing. It seems to me that a cross-shaped, quadrupartite world is one which has inherent in it many of the seeds of the stability which we all seek. My Lords, I beg to move for Papers.
3.39 p.m.
LORD GLADWYN: My Lords, I confess to being under some slight disadvantage, because until just before this debate I myself did not know what was inherent in, or indeed what was meant by, the subject of the debate; namely, "European Security". Nor did I know to any notable extent the general line which the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, was going to deploy. I must say that some confusion is engendered by the wording of the Motion. For what is meant by "European security"? Unless we can define "Europe" in some way, it is very difficult to know what we do mean. The Conference on "European" Co-operation and Security which is about to open at Helsinki in a way adds to the confusion, because there we are apparently speaking about the security of Europe, but the Soviet Union, which extends to Vladivostcck, and the United States of America and Canada are all going to participate, presumably on a basis of equality, and therefore if we are discussing security at Helsinki it is surely not European security but general security. A much larger problem is involved.
Then the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, referred, very properly from his point of view because he was taking in the whole picture, to the SALT negotiations, but, rightly or wrongly, while the SALT negotiations concern only the two super-Powers they have an indirect effect upon everybody. They cannot be said to come only into the European picture, while the conference on general and complete disarmament, which has been going on for so long in Geneva, embraces the entire world, and as the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, was saying we hope—and perhaps the noble Baroness in her reply will tell us whether we are right to hope
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—that the Chinese will soon be represented there also.
It is an appalling problem to try to contemplate the co-ordination which I thought the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, said was necessary, between all these great centres of present activity. Can we really imagine that there might be some super-Power—unless it is the United Nations—which could co-ordinate such activities? I am afraid that in this wicked world they will all have to pursue their respective ways and we shall have to go on with them, such as they are, hoping for the best.
But, my Lords—and you may think, perhaps, that this is my King Charles's head—I myself will take Europe security as meaning (anythow for the purposes of our investigation to-day) something much less than the problem very properly raised by the noble Lord, Lord Kennet; namely, the security, by which I suppose one must mean the ultimate defence, of the body which we have just joined, that is, the extended European Economic Community—minus, one must imagine. Ireland, because Ireland is neutral and therefore could not take part in any discussions on this subject, unless she joins NATO, and perhaps even without the Danes who so far have not shown any great interest in the problems of defence or security other, of course, than being a member of NATO. In so doing, I hope to follow up one or two points made by the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, and to see whether I can develop them to any noticeable degree.
As I see it, the States of the extended Europan Economic Community, minus Ireland and perhaps even minus Denmark, simply cannot avoid—and I believe the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, eventually admitted that—fairly soon tackling the problem of their own defence. By that I do not mean just co-operation in the so-called Eurogroup in NATO, which as we all know includes Turkey but does not include France, useful though this is. What I mean is getting down to the planning of a real scheme for specifically Western European defences within the general framework of the North Atlantic Alliance. That is a problem which we can at least understand and perhaps we can debate it with some profit as a problem for which there certainly should be a

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definite solution. After all, we are told that we must work towards, and indeed even expect to see, not only an economic but also a political union of Western Europe in no less than eight years from now. That is what our Ministers tell us. Are we then to suppose that such a union is to have a common foreign policy but not a common defence policy? That would be absurd, and yet if we are to have any common defence policy then, if we are to form this union in eight years' time, we must decide fairly soon on the general lines of the defence policy which we have in mind. Surely that is common sense.
As I see it, my Lords, there are three broad possibilities. The first, and no doubt the ideal one, assumes that the European Security and Co-operation Conference and the Conference on the Mutual and Balanced Reduction of Forces have been, by 1980, brought to a completely successful conclusion, in which case we must suppose that the Americans will have gone back to America and the Russians will have gone back to Russia; the various European countries—strictly speaking the European countries West of the Soviet Union—freed, presumably, from the membership of any bloc yet not forming a bloc themselves, living together in prosperous amity, largely disarmed and neutralised and certainly forming part of a denuclearised area and thus menacing nobody. That is presumably what we must hope to see. It would involve a European Economic Community extended—some might even say dissolved—and if that were so then the extended European Economic Community would presumably need no defence. That would be assured by the two super-Powers. I imagine also that there would be no central authority, but there might be a loose customs area organised under the general direction of the Council of Europe at Strasbourg.
A great deal of money would no doubt be spent on preserving and improving the environment; enormous sums would be devoted to aid and to rectifying the terms of trade. It would obviously be a kind of paradise compared to our modern world, and I suppose it would represent the complete détente that all our rulers now, including Mr. Brehznev, say they want to achieve in less than eight years from now. I devoutly hope that I
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may live to see this day, along with the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, and I hope also the noble Lord, Lord Brockway, who seems to have the one great virtue, namely the secret of perpetual youth.
Unhappily, détente—and I am sure about this—will not come about by any unilateral concessions on the part of the West. Nor are the tensions to be distended for the most part (as I believe, anyhow) due to us, though of course we do bear part of the responsibility. They stem—and we must appreciate this—from such causes as the need for certain regimes to maintain themselves in power; from nationalist emotions; from fear of economic collapse; from misguided ideologies; from the unseen pressure of the starving millions of the world, to say nothing of the sheer aggressive tendencies of the human animal. They will not easily disappear. The idea that we can achieve the détente by a display of reason and good will is, I am afraid, a pure illusion. We can probably in practice achieve it only by reducing fear on both sides of the Iron Curtain; and that implies making it apparent that we ourselves are safe.
If we do not do this—and this is my second possibility—I am afraid it is quite likely that something much worse than the present situation will prevail in eight years' time. For whether we like it or not, it is certainly possible to imagine that the Americans, as in Vietnam, will have evacuated Europe on terms which do not necessarily in themselves ensure the security of their allies. Such a disastrous development might well be due not so much to some aberration on the part of the Americans as to sheer reluctance on the part of the allies to do anything much to provide for their own defence.
It would not then in all likelihood be a question of our being attacked or invaded by the Soviet Union. But there is no doubt whatever that in such an event the Western European democracies would be subjected to strong pressures to join some united Europe, led by Moscow; and that this would lead, bit by bit, to the transformation of our present free societies into directed economies and to the formation, to the evident dismay of Peking, of a European colossus of some 700 million to 800 million people which would certainly seek to achieve

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the leadership of the world. One may not regard such a development as at all likely; and perhaps it is not. But it cannot be denied that it is possible more especially if we do not now bestir ourselves and seriously begin to organise our Western European defence. This indeed is the third possibility and clearly the most hopeful and creative; and it is entirely compatible with at least some progress in the negotiations for European security and still more with progress towards a mutual and balanced reduction of forces. I entirely agree with the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, in his hope for some steady progress on both these fronts, with perhaps the creation of a body that would supervise the whole situation. I agree with that, and I think it is possible.
The general idea would be that in return for greater willingness on the part of their European allies to think out new schemes for their own conventional defence—and no doubt also as the result of some agreed compromise on trade between Europe and North America—the United States, though gradually reducing the number of their forces stationed in Germany, would, failing the complete withdrawal of Russian forces to Russia, agree to maintain considerable conventional and nuclear forces in Europe, perhaps indefinitely, but certainly until such time as the European allies, by concentrating on a new type of forward defence, might be deemed capable by themselves of halting any Soviet armoured thrust towards the West—that is, unless of course the Russians were prepared to have first recourse to nuclear weapons, which, given the fact that there would be at least some nuclear come-back from the European side on a second strike, they would almost certainly not be prepared to do.
This is not the moment to develop this possibility in any detail; rather I shall hope to do so in the debate on the Defence Estimates. Nevertheless, I believe that it is entirely possible, given general agreement on the part of Western Germany, France and the United Kingdom—and if they got agreement the rest would follow—to think out a ten-year programme for a new kind of conventional defence which would be credible even if at the end of such a period the Americans had no more than token
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forces in Western Germany. I believe, too, that not only would such a scheme, if it were developed in an integrated way and combined with a streamlining of the production of the specialised arms involved, be very considerably cheaper than our present set-up but nothing would be more likely in the long run to result in an East-West détente based on a genuine balance of power.
I know that most noble Lords who are expert in this matter—and there are many in the House to-day—will tend to say that all this is nonsense and that, pending full agreement on the mutual and balanced reduction of forces, about which I am not at all optimistic, our entire safety will depend both on the maintenance of substantial United States forces in Germany and on their determination to have recourse to tactical nuclear weapons in the event of a serious armoured thrust from the East—the idea that conventional defences might be so reorganised, either with or without the Americans, as to contain such a thrust being pure moonshine.
Yet if this is really so, my Lords, what is our future in the event of American determination if necessary to press the nuclear button becoming less credible than it is at present; and still more so in the event of our ever being left on our own? The answer is quite simple. If that were to happen we should have no future; we should be completely at the mercy of the East. The idea that Europe, whether or not in ten years' time it has a President, would be willing to order a first nuclear strike against a major nuclear Power is the greatest of all illusions, and I only hope that it is not shared either by our own Government or by the Government of France, though I sometimes suspect that it may be. A small second-strike European nuclear force, whether tactical or strategic, is quite another matter, which can be argued on its merits; but that is not my present point.
It is said that necessity is the mother of invention. I rather think that, perhaps some time after the coming French elections, and whether or not my own theories are acceptable, we may be forced to have a new look at the whole problem of Western European defence within the framework of the Western Alliance. I have put no very difficult questions to the noble Baroness who will reply.

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Nevertheless, perhaps she will comment on my reflections. I know that sometimes she makes favourable remarks in a general way about some of the things I say, though that does not mean that she accepts my remarks. But I suggest that what I have said might be careful] considered by the Administration.
3.57 p.m.
LORD BROCKWAY: My Lords, I wish first to express to my noble friend Lord Kennet my appreciation of the fact that he has chosen this subject for debate to-day. I also congratulate him on the penetrating speech which he delivered. The noble Lord, Lord Gladwyn, expressed some difficulty over the meaning of security, which is our subject this afternoon.
LORD GLADWYN: European security.
LORD BROCKWAY: I stand corrected: European security is our subject to-day. I should have hoped it meant that people in their ordinary lives might feel free to live those lives in security, without the danger of war. I hope that that will be the aim of our discussion. If it is our aim, then we begin with some hope, for the situation to-day is far better than it has been for many years. There is détente between the United States and the Soviet Union; there are the visits not only of President Nixon to Moscow and Peking but of our own Foreign Secretary; there are the SALT talks; there are discussions proceeding at Helsinki for the conference on European Security and Cooperation, and talks are beginning on the mutual and balanced reduction of forces.
We may be inclined to be a little cynical about the Disarmament Conference which has been held at Geneva over the years. We recall the millions of words that have been uttered there, the great projects presented, even those designed to lead to total disarmament, only to see them put aside. Nevertheless, even from those talks one has, at least on the borders the agreements regarding arms on the sea-bed, and the Non-Proliferation Treaty. If one looks at the whole scene, one sees that it is more hopeful than it has been for many years. That means that as we move towards the discussions which will arise from Helsinki and Vienna we should approach them in a spirit of confidence and of trust.
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I was disturbed, as I read the debate in another place on this subject, at the doubts and the suspicions which were continually expressed in speech after speech. I remember that the Chancellor of Western Germany, Willy Brandt, after his successful negotiations with the Soviet Union, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and other Communist countries, expressed the view that he was met on the Soviet and Communist side by sincerity. I recognise at once that we must be alert about our own interests, but if these discussions are to be successful we must seek to put on one side the doubts and suspicions which have poisoned negotiations in the past, and at least try to approach an agreement on the basis of mutual sincerity.
Of the four conferences to which my noble friend Lord Kennet referred—the SALT discussions, the Disarmament Conference at Geneva, the Vienna Conference on Mutual and Balanced Reduction of Arms, and the Conference on Security and Co-operation—the Conference on Security and Co-operation is, in the long run, the most important. It is true that its success will depend upon the Vienna Conference dealing with the mutual and balanced reduction of forces, but I hope that the difficulties which have arisen at Vienna—the conflict as to whether the discussion should be limited to the Central European Powers or whether other nations shall be brought in—will be overcome and an agreement reached. As I see it, Central Europe is the concentrated point for reductions, but quite obviously the whole of Europe is interested. It should be possible to reach a solution of the problem that, although recognising that Central European countries have the major responsibility for discussion and decision, the other nations of Europe, including the neutral nations, should have an opportunity to make comments upon them.
The ambassadorial level discussions at Helsinki on the agenda for the European Conference have now gone on for several weeks, with a coming temporary adjournment. On the whole they have been encouraging in their results. The one point of conflict has been the Western proposal for free movement of peoples from the West to the East. I am entirely in favour of that proposal in principle. I want to see a breakdown

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in all the barriers, not merely for cultural exchange but also for an exchange of information, news, ideas, and for liberties of thought which are at present restricted in the Communist countries. But I should have thought that it might be possible to reach a solution by saying that we will seek to extend all these liberties, and hope that as co-operation extends between the East and the West, as a result of this Conference and its conclusions, we may move to the point where in the future there will be absolute freedom of movement between the peoples from one side to another.
It is quite clear—and I believe this is accepted—that one conference is not going to settle these issues. The Helsinki ambassadorial discussions are preparing the agenda and the meeting in June is to be on a Ministerial level. There is the idea that the Conference itself should be followed by the appointment of continuing commissions dealing with security, economic and social co-operation, problems of pollution, an exchange of information and cultural liberty. It seems to me that those commissions will be working out those problems for many months, and I would hope that the full Conference would meet again to receive the reports of those commissions, and even then that the commissions will continue, progressing towards greater co-operation between East and West. I should like to see some continuing body, bridging Eastern and Western Europe, to deal with these problems as they develop and grow. We should regard this Conference not as a conclusion of discussions but as the beginning of continuing co-operation.
I do not apologise for speaking with emphasis on this subject because I have been urging this course for six years in this House, and for a long time mine was quite a lonely voice. At the beginning the situation was difficult because the Communist countries made their proposals in a spirit of aggressive attacks upon the West and America and they could be dismissed as propaganda. But as the years have passed they have made concession after concession, and now we have reached the position, despite the doubts—indeed, obstructions—over the last six years where the Conference is becoming a reality. I beg Her Majesty's Government to put at the back of their
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mind the doubts which have existed on both sides of the House over the last six years, and to seize this opportunity and all that it allows.
I take the view that this can be the great breakthrough for peace in the world; not merely to avoid war in Europe—wars in Europe become world wars. Here can be provided the opportunity for real co-operation between East and West. It can end the antagonistic mobilisation of armed forces between NATO and the Warsaw Pact countries so that ultimately their necessity will disappear. It will provide the opportunity for disarmament, including areas in Europe which may be made free altogether from nuclear weapons and be an example to the world. All those opportunities lie in this Conference if we and other nations will seize them. I beg Her Majesty's Government to do what they can in this respect.
May I, before I sit down, add one personal remark, which I had intended to make earlier to the noble Baroness? I should like to apologise that yesterday I suggested that she had sought to avoid an answer to the question I had put on this subject in relation to East Germany. An exchange took place over the Table and I am afraid that those of us who were on the side Benches did not hear the answer of the noble Baroness. I apologise if I gave any impression that she was seeking to avoid an answer to the question which I had put.
4.10 p.m.
LORD SANDYS: My Lords, it is always a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Brockway, because he is perfectly tuned in to the international wavelength, and I do not think there is one word which he has said in his speech on European security from which I dissent at all. I should particularly like to thank the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, for giving us the opportunity to discuss the subject of the present debate. As it happens, I was the only representative from your Lordships' House on a British delegation to Helsinki which returned at the weekend, and I have the opportunity now to knock off what little snow is remaining on my boots and to give some indication of the feeling in Helsinki at the present moment.
The noble Lord, Lord Kennet, has very accurately indicated the four conferences

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which are proceeding on the question of disarmament and security generally, so it is rather confusing to add a fifth, also in Helsinki. The conference which I attended was also in Helsinki and was also on European security, and it was conducted by the Inter-Parliamentary Union. This conference was running in parallel with what has been referred to earlier as the ambassadors' conference. It may be said that this conference was successful in its week's study and discussion on a whole range of subjects, but we narrowed our ground: we did not include M.B.F.R.s at all. The questions now being discussed in Vienna were thought better avoided and left off our agenda.
Well, what did we discuss?—European security in the absence of M.B.F.R. discussion, economic co-operation, cultural relations and freer movement among peoples. The noble Lord, Lord Brockway, expressed warm enthusiasm, as I understood it, for greater cultural exchanges, and I am sure he has already read with interest the resolutions regarding this particular matter which were unanimously agreed at the I.P.U. Conference. The ambassadors' conference at Helsinki about preparations for the European Security Conference, the multilateral discussions, appear to be covering precisely parallel ground to the I.P.U. Conference, and in the same place. It is very appropriate at this point that I should express the wholehearted gratitude of the British delegation to our Finnish hosts, who looked after us particularly well by making available to the Conference for a whole week the whole of their Parliamentary building and its ancillary services. I am quite sure that this very generous gesture by the Government and Parliament of Finland is most warmly appreciated by all participants in the conference.
Something which I think was typified throughout our visit was the desire of the Finnish people, as expressed through their elected representatives, that the conference should really work. They wanted a successful outcome, and they, as a neutral nation, wanted to see the two contending, opposed forces reach at least some degree of unanimity. In the case of our conference it is a remarkable fact that instead of being faced at the end of a week's discussion with vast
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areas of abandoned agendas, we did, after very protracted discussions, reach unanimity on all three subjects. I think it is to the credit of the Inter-Parliamentary Union that this was achieved.
I listened with great interest to Lord Gladwyn's speech in which he expressed the view that discussions on the M.B.F.R.s and the European security question might well continue probably up to about 1980. I would not dissent from that. But if it is not inappropriate to ask this question, may I ask why it is that Parliamentarians from a group of European countries can meet for a week in congenial surroundings and reach agreement within that short space of time on at least certain issues? Surely, there is a case for the Parliaments of European countries, and indeed of countries on the fringe of the European Continent, to have this opportunity of implementing the decisions reached. These resolutions are no more and no less than the strength that is given to them by the member-Parliaments of the Inter-Parliamentary Union, but here is an opportunity for Her Majesty's Government to examine the resolutions to which we gave our name and seek means whereby they can be implemented in the forthcoming programme of legislation.
I would pass from that aspect to the very important matter which the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, mentioned, the question of Mr. Brezhnev's speech last year. The noble Lord apologised to your Lordships for making constant reference to it. I must confess that as I read Mr. Brezhnev's speech I felt that that in itself might form the subject of debate, because its range of subject was so wide; indeed, it encompassed not only foreign relations, disarmament, forces in general, but also agriculture, pollution and a vast range of communications problems. The European Conference is a subject which I think I should mention in the course of my speech, because Mr. Brezhnev referred particularly to the status of the European Conference.
One has to wade deep in his speech. I went through 54 pages in the English text before I reached it. He said:
"The all-European conference on security and co-operation, for which the socialist countries have worked for many years, should open a new chapter in European history. It appears

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that the conference will begin not later than the middle of 1973.
"The peoples attach great hopes to the convocation of the all-European conference. They expect it to deal with the basic problems of strengthening European peace, to put an end to the suspicion and fear bred by the cold war, and give the European confidence in the morrow."
He went on from there—and I must ask your Lordships' indulgence for another two sentences:
"We shall strive to achieve meaningful results at the conference, which would be of benefit to all its participants.
"Everybody knows the political principles which, in the opinion of the U.S.S.R. and its allies, should constitute the basis for ensuring the security of the European nations."
I think we fully appreciate the basis of those principles and that we should heartily agree with what the noble Lord, Lord Gladwyn, said about illusions, because, if I remember aright, the poet Voltaire said:
"Illusion is the first of all pleasures."
And indeed, frequently in the past European history has been determined by those who have had illusions and have fallen prey to those illusions, with disastrous results for whole peoples, and at times the Continent.
I should like to refer particularly to a document which came into my hands almost at the end of the Conference and which was presented as a gift personally to each member of the British delegation by our colleagues in the Czechoslovakian delegation. I thought that it was symtomatic of the degree of historical interest which they have in European questions that they had taken the trouble to research into a peace charter which was drawn up in the years 1462 to 1464, called, "The Proposal for a Universal Peace Organisation made by King George of Bohemia". This won in those days the support of Poland and Hungary and, for a time, Venice and France. It was concerned in those far-off days 500 years ago with no less a strikingly similar situation between two opposing forces in Europe, those of Christendom and Islam. This peace treaty aimed to convene security, as it was known in those days, and it was so remarkably like some of the principles of the United Nations Charter that perhaps I may give two of them mentioned in this document.
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One was the principle of peaceful settlement of international disputes, and the second the principle of equality of States associating together for peaceful cooperation while maintaining their sovereignty.
I feel that King George of Bohemia was a remarkably modern-minded person. But, surely, although this desirable state was never fully achieved, for a length of time peace was achieved in Europe between Christendom and Islam—until, presumably, the battle of Lepanto, and we all know the result after that period—and surely the achievement of almost 100 years of peace was a very significant achievement. All these efforts, be it by diplomats, experts, parliamentarians, or those who are attempting to construct footbridges—and here I very much agree with the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, that the word "bridge" is perhaps rather lacking in inspiration nowadays—are very attractive. The personal contact achieved at this Conference in Helsinki undoubtedly provided and produced a number of footbridges between East and West. I feel that these can be worked on, improved and enlarged, and surely all these contacts and channels of communication established between individual members are likely to bear fruit in the future.
LORD KENNET: My Lords, before the noble Lord sits down, may I remind him that 1462 was the year when Pope Pius II tried to launch the last of the Crusades, but fortunately no one went with him—perhaps because they all listened to King George of Bohemia.
4.23 p.m.
LORD DAVIES OF LEEK: My Lords, I am sure that the brevity of this debate is no measure of the usefulness of it. It is not my intention in this short debate to detain the House, and I hope that I shall not reiterate points that have already been made. I listened to the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Gladwyn, with interest, and I consider it axiomatic of all security conferences and the hopes of mankind since the days of Nebuchadnezzer and the days when the Assyrians came down like wolves on the fold that man has hoped to eradicate fear, if only he could. In a materialistic way we grow up with the illusion that affluence will eradicate fear. The strange

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fact is that the most affluent society in the world, the United States, is the most nag-ridden with fear, distress and violence. In other words, it is quite true that man does not live by bread alone; he needs something else. He needs some faith. I am not a good Christian, but metaphysicians and philosophers who have been struggling since pre-Grecian days, and all the histories of Christs on earth—and different ones—have shown us that man must have a peg to hang the hat of faith on, and believe in something. Consequently, whatever way we look at a European Security Conference, if we go into it with cynicism and shouting, "Yarboo ! this is not going to succeed", it surely will not succeed.
There is always a little risk in eradicating fear. The little risk that we must take is to get rid of our Walter-Mittyish ideas, and pillars of clouds, that we are now a Great Power. We no longer can defend and police the Pacific. In another ten to twenty years, Hongkong will be gone out of the—I will not use the old word "Empire", but out of the sway of Great Britain because of our agreement with China. We are no longer the force in the Mediterranean Sea, as Suez proved; and our forces cannot bring peace to Northern Ireland. Those are the facts of the situation when we are discussing European security to-day.
Who, then, is Britain building up forces to attack by herself? In this Walter-Mittyish idea that we can increase our military expenditure and thereby eradicate fear and bring security, certain qualifications must be enunciated. The first is that no longer can we think of Eastern Europe and Western Europe as a peninsula sticking out from the side of the Urals and detached from the world. The second axiom of our discussion is that Mr. Nixon has made a U-turn. Just as Prime Minister Heath has made a U-turn in his economics and stolen the clothes and left the poor Labour Party naked in the cold river, so has Mr. Nixon made a U-turn because of the pressure of events and reality. He has had to make a U-turn in his attitude to the Communist world, and there is no argument about that. Here was a mighty nation with the greatest nuclear forces in the world, and it was forced to make a rapprochement with China and the Soviet Union. I am not
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denouncing that; I think it is a good thing for the world.
I had better not be didactic about this, but am I right in assuming, in passing, that that in itself helps the world to a little better understanding than we had in 1954 at the Geneva Conference, when John Foster Dulles forced upon the world the war in Indo-China through a policy that went awry? Am I now right to assume that we have eradicated a little fear in that great sphere of influence? I think so. Nixon is going to visit Moscow, he is going to visit Peking again, and very soon he will be at the European Security Conference.
What worried me a little—and I listened with care to the constructive speech of my noble friend on the Front Bench—was the speech of the Prime Minister at the Lord Mayor's banquet, and the speech here of the noble Lord. Lord Carrington, who was talking to us about the realities which would continue to govern European defence. I have uttered some of the realities. He said to us that there is,
"… first and foremost the need to maintain and foster the North Atlantic Alliance … Secondly, as I have said time and again during the past year, we in Europe cannot count on that co-operation unless we assume a greater share of the burden of defence"
of other nations. He further said that we are called upon to make a greater effort to avoid the threat to Western Europe. Let us be fair to the noble Lord, because he qualified this statement when he added:
"The danger of direct military assault is perhaps now amongst the least of our worries. But harsh, even aggressive, political attitudes and policies, with the fact of overwhelmingly military superiority ever-present in the background, are another matter." [OFFICIAL REPORT, 1 / 11/72, col. 41.]
By including that last passage I have not left it as though the noble Lord, the Minister of Defence, was talking blindly. What he has assumed is that we shall not get a military attack. If we did, this country alone could not possibly do anything, especially in view of the fact that we cannot subdue Ulster. What he is pointing out is that we are prepared to take big risks to stop the aggressive political attacks and, perhaps, the propaganda of Eastern Europe.

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I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Sandys, and to the noble Lord, Lord Gladwyn, for their interesting speeches. The noble Lord, Lord Gladwyn, gave us the key to this debate when he asked: how can we eradicate fear? Unless we get rid of that, we cannot get anywhere. But I do not know the answer. On both sides of the Iron Curtain—I use that horrible old-fashioned expression—we must get together, because, to repeat a Macmillan phrase, "Jaw-jaw is better than war-war." What is wrong with the Disarmament Conference at Geneva going on for 20 years, if we are sill not firing shot and shell at each other in the struggle for peace? I am purposely cutting my speech, although I should like to build up this argument, but this House is so wise that it can follow even me. But what is there to stop us now, in this transition period, handing out a little more friendliness? Willy Brandt gave us the signpost with the Ost Politik. I have read the speech of Mr. Elliott, our Ambassador in Finland. I think we ought to pay tribute to Mr. Elliott, because at the preliminary to all these ambassadorial talks he hinted at the possibility of building a bridge over the chasm of fear. We could put out the hand of understanding.
No longer can we have European security without bringing in the rest of the world. In the same way as no man is an island, Europe is not an island any longer. So do not let us decry the work of the United Nations, despite all its failures. Many of us at different times have seen some of its work all around the world. Let us try to make these rickety man-made machines, which are trying to bridge over peace, work by building greater contacts. Russia is opening up her frontiers bit by bit. She is not ashamed now to show her house. The Eastern European countries in this affluent society are having their pollution and environment problems, in the same way as capitalism. Having presented to the world the two opposite economies, we have to decide how—it may take 20, 30 or 40 years—we shall find a rapprochement, and I would rather talk for 40 years than, through irritation and impatience, be driven into a nuclear war which would destroy civilisation. Noble Lords
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will be delighted that, having spoken for just ten minutes, I shall leave it there.
4.35 p.m.
LORD WIGG: My Lords, it was far from my intention to speak in this debate before I came into the House and listened to my noble friend Lord Davies of Leek, with whom I have been closely associated in a number of activities from the time when I first left the Army, nearly 40 years ago. During the last few months I have been away and have not had a chance to talk to him; and it looks as if my absence has made itself felt in his thinking because he seems to have reverted to his woolly Welsh ways, for he made some statements which are such unutterable nonsense that I take an early opportunity to put him right. I shall now do it publicly, because if I did it privately I should be more adjectival than would be in order in your Lordships' House.
My noble friend's first statement was a slur on the British Army. He did not intend it, for he is a very kindly man. But he said, dismissing the military potential of this country, that the Army cannot settle the problems of Ulster. Of course we could settle the problems of Ulster. But in a democracy, there is always the powerful instrument of criticism. You could tell the Army commander in Belfast, "Settle it, as the Russians settled the risings in East Berlin, in Hungary or in Czechoslovakia", and it would be settled. It is not a question of a deficiency in our Armed Forces, but of what steps we are prepared to take in a free society to bring about the result that we want. Therefore, for noble Lords to dismiss what is happening in Ireland as inability of the Army to do what is required is incorrect. In his next statement, my noble friend was tremendously pleased with Mr. Nixon's visits to Peking and Moscow and he regarded it as a change of heart. I am sorry, my Lords, but "Tricky Dicky"—
LORD DAVIES OF LEEK: My Lords, obviously my noble friend has now lost the capacity of following thinking, because I said nothing of the sort. I did not say that it was a change of heart; I said that it was forced upon him. The noble Lord must not be so arrogant. He must not assume that I cast any slur on the Army. I did no such thing. Of course the Army could have finished it if they

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had wanted to be butchers, but knowing the humanity of the Army we could not at this moment mount that kind of action. I am dealing with European security as well.
LORD WIGG: My Lords, I must take up the point about the Army. I very carefully said that I was quite sure that my noble friend would be the last person to cast a slur on the Army. What I point out to him is that the potential to settle the Irish problem is present, but it cannot be used because, basically, the Government have accepted—in my judgment, rightly—that Ulster is a political problem which cannot be settled by force. That is the first point.
The second point is that I do not believe that "Tricky Dicky" had a change of heart as a result of a sudden conversion. I believe that the actions of President Nixon, from the time he assumed office four years ago up to the time of his re-election, were dictated by one fact and one fact alone. Every action that he took both at home and abroad, was dictated by his desire to win the Election. He went off to China and to Moscow, but what one has never yet seen is the small print. But there are signs of it. There were complaints to Sir Alec Douglas-Home, when he was in Peking, that before President Nixon got back to Washington he was already going back on his undertakings to the Chinese. I do not believe that the exercise of power by powerful States is dictated by the sudden conversion of particular individuals. The conflicts that exist in the world to-day are there, although the means by which they find expression change. My view is that war, as we have known it twice in our lifetimes, is now a thing of the past because the capacity for one Power to destroy another is now so absolute that all-out war is not "on". I do not believe that President Nixon has changed his spots—not for a moment. His policy is based on the need to look after President Nixon.
There is a noble Lord whom I shall call by a name by which he is not known; that is, the noble Lord, Lord Birch. I well remember his commenting on the 1958 White Paper, and saying that the opening words were among the biggest load of nonsense that he had ever read, and I have repeated his words since on
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many occasions. What the 1958 White Paper said—and it was the Government's policy up to 1964, and has been since—is that,
"… the world stands poised between total war and total peace".
Total war, possibly, although I do not think it very likely. But total peace? Look around us, my Lords. Total peace is the Kingdom of Heaven. Ever since the Garden of Eden, ever since the days of recorded history, there have been struggles by wicked men to seize power and to use it in their own interest. That struggle will go on but it will take a very different form. It may well be that subversion, the kind of thing that is taking place in all the urban areas of the world, will become commonplace in our lives; that the old order, respect for authority, respect for discipline—even, if I may say so, respect for my noble friend's grey hairs—may become things of the past. We have to accept Northern Ireland or Palestine or Vietnam as an everyday occurrence. I have always held, and I still hold, that the interest of this country is to maintain the rule of law. I supported our intervention in Korea for that reason; I supported President Johnson in his attitudes towards Vietnam; and I support Her Majesty's Government in their attitude towards Northern Ireland—because I believe the alternative to an ordered society is anarchy, and there can be no looking after the interests of the old and the weak unless we establish meantime the rule of law.
I believe that one of the greatest instruments for the maintenance of the rule of law is the Army. This is not the occasion on which one should enlarge upon that subject, although I hope to do so in the future. I certainly do not accept the interpretation which my noble friend puts on the action of Willy Brandt and the Ostpolitik. I have a very different explanation. Just by chance, I have been looking at this matter, and I have put a Question on the Order Paper. I am not out to publicise my Question, but what are the facts? In 1958 there was a Protocol to the Treaty of Rome. I am astonished that nobody ever talked about the Protocol that Dr. Adenauer insisted should be included in the Treaty of Rome. It is a Protocol which relates to German internal trade and connected problems; and it means that all trade

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as between East and West Germany should be regarded as a whole.
So when Willy Brandt was firmly in the saddle he had something to offer the Communist bloc by way of this deal, because what it means is that the chicken from Czechoslovakia and Poland plus the ballbearings from Sweden are pouring into Western Europe—and there has even been some of them here. There are acres of warehouses in Hamburg stocked up with goods from all over Communist Europe, waiting to pour, free of duty, into Europe. Of course the Communists are only too pleased that there are such mugs as we are to permit this to go on without discussion. And it has gone on. It is significant that the French started to raise objections, but M. Pompidou, when he met Willy Brandt, took the hint and did not raise the subject. This is very apposite to the struggle in the world, because my noble friend is quite right: it is going to take on a different look—not guns, not atomic weapons, but the struggle for a position of power, and so on and so forth, to see who gets most at the least possible price.
My noble friend, as he has so often done in the past, excited me to get on my feet and talk—
LORD DAVIES OF LEEK: Very unfortunate !
LORD WIGG: —and to anticipate the speech I am going to make in the future on this very important subject. But perhaps I may conclude by saying this. I believe, and have believed ever since the end of the war, that the struggle for power has moved from Europe and that we are now no longer in the race. The struggle for power has moved South and East, and that is why I have listened with cynicism to the arguments about the Common Market. They are utterly and completely irrelevant. We have got in for one simple reason: that Mr. Heath has stood pat and has never shifted from his Harvard speech, and M. Pompidou was prepared to take him as he was not prepared to take Mr. Macmillan or Mr. Wilson. Because M. Pompidou. too, hopes one day to get rid of M. Debré, and then he will bring to pass the wild, foolish, fantastic nonsense of a European deterrent which France and Britain will hold in trust for the rest of Europe. Mr.
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Heath believes it: he said it at Harvard. Obviously, when he spoke to Pompidou and got "Yes" to enter the Common Market he told Pompidou of his acceptance of a joint British/French deterrent, and that is why he got his "Yes". For the Common Market is not to do with tariffs; it is to do with power: and as far as power is concerned, neither Britain nor France, nor any other country in Europe, nor Europe as a whole, is any longer in the race. The race is between the Soviet Union and the United States.
4.45 p.m.
LORD BOURNE: My Lords, I apologise to the noble Baroness for intervening, but there are two points which have not been covered in the debate so far and which I should like to mention rather briefly. For more than twenty years since NATO was set up there has been absolute peace in Europe, whereas there has not been peace in the Far East. One of the reasons for that, I suggest, is because, as the noble Lord, Lord Wigg, has just said, the scene in Europe is coloured by the super Powers; that is to say, the nuclear power of the United States of America and of the Soviet Union. Therefore I think it is highly dangerous to have more than the NATO representatives and the Warsaw Pact representatives at the M.B.F.R. Conference in Vienna; and the Soviet invitation to widen the membership of the Conference is, in my opinion, rather a risky one to accept. We all understand about the well-known neutrals—that is to say, Switzerland, Austria, Sweden, et cetera—but if any more countries are introduced to that Conference then before we know where we are we shall be outvoted by the neutrals who live quite close to Russia; and I think it is rather risky.
The second point was touched on by the noble Lord, Lord Wigg, when he mentioned the Anglo-French nuclear power agreement of the future. I have spoken about this subject before in your Lordships' House, and I am dead against such an agreement for the following reasons. First of all, M. Debré, who was then French Defence Minister, said—and I think he was quite right:
"The decision to employ nuclear weapons can only be made by a single nation".
I entirely agree with that: and, if your Lordships remember. I said that I was quite satisfied with the President of the

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United States having his finger on the trigger on our side. A French official recently said:
"NATO may change: France will never change".
I think that is distinctly apropos.
So I suggest that an Anglo-French nuclear power agreement would be wrong for the following four reasons. First of ail, the agreement would be highly dangerous, in that it would upset a balance which has kept peace for twenty years. Secondly, I agree that it is a single country's decision. Thirdly, we have lived under the threat of having 600 Soviet missiles close to our centres of population for many years past; and, anyway, there is not a proper warning period. Fourthly, there is the impossible cost. I believe that for its nuclear weapons the United States pays roughly the amount of the French and British Defence budgets added together, so the cost would be impossible. In conclusion I should like to ask the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, a question concerning his cruciform picture of the future. I wonder whether he could elaborate on that subject a little more, because at the moment it is one that escapes me.
4.50 p.m.
LORD HANKEY: My Lords, I hope I may say a few words before this debate ends. I would start by congratulating the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, on what I thought was an admirably documented and very objective statement of the situation. But, as I think my noble friend who has just sat down feels, I have some doubt about the analysis in his last paragraph of what he calls the cruciform situation. I personally have enormous admiration for what President Nixon and Dr. Kissinger have done. They have acted with enormous courage. I was privileged, while on a visit to Canada and the United States from which I have just come back, to hear a most remarkable interview on television with Dr. Kissinger. I think he is one of the most remarkable diplomats of our era. The point I want to make is that he does not see the situation as cruciform; and he says that President Nixon does not do so either. He sees the world as containing five major power factors: first, the U.S.A. and then Russia and, of course, China; then Japan and, finally (I say "finally" purely for convenience) Europe. Those five do not lend them-
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selves to a cruciform situation. I do not think that that forms part of the American idea.
I should like to say that President Nixon could not have a detente with either of the Communist Powers without appearing to be mixed up in the dispute between Russia and China. From that it follows that if he went to one he must go to the other. Secondly, I think it was extremely good that he was able to use the fact that both of them are getting a bit fed up with the Indonesian war and that neither of them wants the Americans to be in Indonesia, in order to settle the gathering number of outstanding questions.
I believe that we should never miss an opportunity of settling outstanding questions with the Communist Powers. One cannot always be sure what the result of negotiations will be; but one must never miss an opportunity of settling. We should always be on the look-out for the olive branch or for just that opportunity, in the way that President Nixon has been. I really think that he deserves thanks from all of us because his action has been good for European security. There is no doubt that these huge tensions between major Powers can easily produce situations which involve Europe's security and which are liable to be very bad for us. I believe that there are major dangers there to the continent in which we live.
I was extremely shocked when in Canada and America at the tremendous disillusion and the cynicism of American opinion. Their public opinion is really all over the place. Some of them go around saying, "That shows how tricky Dick's been all the time; and Mao is really the blue-eyed boy". Some are saying, "We sold the Vietnamese down the river"—although they hesitate to say that they ought to go on fighting. Opinion is really all over the place. No doubt, under the influence of President Nixon and his advisers, American opinion will settle down in time. I personally think that it would be very good for all of us if the situation were to settle down.
We ought to remember, referring to the people who believe that Mao is the "blue-eyed boy", that this is the same Mao who has had military trouble with

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every one of his neighbours with the exception of Pakistan—and China is divided from Pakistan by 12,000-foot mountains. This is the same Mao who ordered the episode of "letting 1.000 flowers bloom" and who afterwards slapped down on the journalists, the writers, and the intellectuals who said what they thought. He is the same Mao who put the Reuter correspondent under house arrest after his being beaten up, and who kept him without trial for over a year. I am all for making arrangements with these people; but do not forget, for instance, the Red Guards—they were not so very long ago. I think that we should be extremely cautious in our dealings with these great Powers. I find them very forbidding.
It is very important, too, that we should not conduct our affairs in Europe in such a way as to make U.S. opinion still more disillusioned about Europe. There is a major danger in our doing this either in trade affairs or in other affairs. I think we ought to be very careful. Let us make no mistake: If Europe gets into trouble without the U.S. nuclear umbrella being available, Europe would, in modern terms, be finished. I hope that Europe will pull itself together soon, as the noble Lord, Lord Gladwyn, urged that it should. I am entirely on his side. The advice he gave was extremely wise. But if Europe does not pull itself together, then I think that in twenty years' time there probably will be no Europe. The attitude of the anti-Europeans on this issue is what might be called a "non-attitude" and is entirely harmful and dangerous.
So clearly we must, so far as we can, take part in the forthcoming security and disarmament discussions. I think it extremely important that we should make the best of them. But let us not be bamboozled. If the discussions are going to end in the United States, with its disillusioned public opinion, withdrawing its troops from Europe, then I think that would be fatal for us. We need the American presence; we need the American umbrella, and we should not be under the illusion that we should be safe with the Russia which so recently destroyed Czechoslovakia. Unless we are strong and reasonably united—and I do not necessarily mean doing anything in nuclear terms—I do not think that our security will be very long lasting.
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Secondly, I should like to refer to what was said by the noble Lord, Lord Wigg. I thought that he made a very important and interesting point. I draw your Lordships' attention to it. I would put it in this way. The threat to Europe may be, in modern terms, internal rather than external; and, as the political and military detente grows, so we may be in danger of lowering our sights and not seeing the dangers which come from inside. One realises that the anarchism of the I.R.A. (busily murdering teenagers, and with Communist inspiration behind it) could be very dangerous. No doubt they will be run out of Northern Ireland. But where will they go after that? They will not be welcome in Canada or the U.S.A. I suspect they will start up in Liverpool and Glasgow and other places over here. Are we then going to use the Army as (in my opinion, inexcusably) we have done in Northern Ireland? It will be time to think up the proper, modern answer to internal subversion—which is a powerful police force backed by proper intelligence.
What happens if France goes Communist? One must think of these things. Europe's security situation will look different in a few weeks' time if the Communists really gain the advances which some people fear they might. I personally think the pollsters may be trying to frighten moderate opinion in France; and that France is probably still a sound country, though difficult to work with. I think that this is a danger, both in France and in Italy, that we ought to bear in mind.
My Lords, nobody in this debate has mentioned North Africa or East Africa. May I draw the attention of your Lordships to the extraordinary growth of the influence of the Communist countries all along the coast of North Africa in the last 20 years, and also to the penetration of East Africa by the Chinese. I believe that these things are very dangerous to European security. We want to be friends with the huge continent lying to the South, and unless we pull ourselves together and have a more unified foreign policy I do not think that we have much chance of achieving that. So I want to see Europe pull itself together and do something adequate about the Mediterranean. In my opinion we have the

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economic power and the imagination—and one might cite the precedent of the Marshall Plan—and we ought to be able to do something to produce an altogether better situation there. That would be very good for our security.
We have also mentioned Iceland. Iceland is the "cork" in the "Atlantic bottle". If, by stimulating a fisheries dispute, anyone succeeds in pulling out the cork, the naval situation in the Atlantic would be totally transformed. I think that this really dangerous situation is one which we ought to be watching very carefully. I have been interested in the Parliamentary Questions which are being asked on this subject, although it is a very difficult subject for the Government to be frank about.
In conclusion, my Lords, I think that the situation for European security is not as bright as it would appear to be and that we ought to be extremely careful. I hope that we shall do everything we can to produce agreement with the Communist Powers, and that we shall exercise great discretion, caution and wisdom in what we agree to.
5.2 p.m.
BARONESS TWEEDSMUIR OF BELHELVIE: My Lords, I also am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, for calling attention to a great number of important questions, and I have listened with the greatest interest to the contributions made by noble Lords from both sides of the House. We are considering the subject of European security at a particularly good moment, as the talks to prepare the way for a Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe are taking place in Helsinki; and last week exploratory discussions began in Vienna on mutual and balanced force reductions in Central Europe. If, as we all hope, these preparatory consultations are successful, a Security Conference is likely to begin in the middle of this year and negotiations on M.B.F.R. in the autumn; so that 1973 could be a vital year for East-West relations, or what I think the noble Lord, Lord Brockway, called possibly a great break through. May I thank the noble Lord very much for his handsome analogy over Questions yesterday.
The noble Lord, Lord Kennet, was good enough to send me a letter in which he asked me no fewer than 11
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questions and he added a great many others to-day. So in fairness to those who have taken part in the debate, I should like to answer his main questions and perhaps write to the noble Lord in respect of his other questions. I should also like to refer to what other noble Lords have said. First, I should like to answer Lord Kennet's question about China and the C.C.D. China has on many occasions been told that she would be most welcome to join in the discussions, but she has never replied. But the Chinese have made clear that they would not be prepared to discuss disarmament in any body which did not include all interested countries. Another major question from the noble Lord, Lord Kennet, related to the question of where Soviet intermediary-range and medium-range ballistic missiles would be discussed. I can only say that it is too early to predict the scope of the M.B.F.R. or of the SALT phase 2 negotiations.
The noble Lord, Lord Gladwyn, as usual, gave us a very thoughtful theme to consider. My noble friend the Secretary of State for Defence will be very interested to know more of the noble Lord's ideas about the means for producing larger conventional forces more cheaply. I suggest that the noble Lord—
LORD GLADWYN: My Lords, the noble Baroness has got it wrong. I said not larger conventional forces, but more streamlined, economic and efficient forces.
BARONESS TWEEDSMUIR OF BELHELVIE: Well, my Lords, shall we say more efficient conventional forces.
LORD GLADWYN: And cheaper.
BARONESS TWEEDSMUIR OF BELHELVIE: My Lords, I thought the noble Lord said "cheaper" as well. That is very important and would appeal to my noble friend. Perhaps we shall return to this theme in the defence debate later this month. My noble friend the Secretary of State for Defence said in a former debate that the whole object of the NATO doctrine was to have what he called a flexible response, and I think it is agreed by everyone that NATO must have adequate conventional forces. We attach great importance to this. The NATO

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strategy is designed to provide the Alliance with the maximum number of options for defensive action. I agree with what was said by the noble Lord, Lord Bourne. We agree with him also that a greater degree of co-operation on defence among the European NATO allies is necessary, not only because the military potential of the Warsaw Pact continues to increase but also because it is important that the Europeans should make a real constructive reply to the United States commitment to keep and improve the United States forces in Europe, provided the Europeans adopt a similar approach. I was sorry to hear the noble Lord, Lord Hankey, say that he felt there was considerable disillusion among the American public at this time. I have a feeling that we could do a great deal within Europe to strengthen our understanding of and confidence in each other.
My Lords, Europe has enjoyed a peace, although an uneasy one, for about a quarter of a century and we are concerned, in the negotiations in which we hope to take part, to improve the quality of that peace. We have to try to create more confidence and trust among the countries of Europe; that, I think, was the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Davies of Leek. The whole history of this century shows how immensely difficult this is, but there is no task which is more important. It is the lack of confidence which led to the building of barriers in Europe where none should exist. It is the same mistrust which keeps the military confrontation at the present level. I think that I would also accept something said by the noble Lord, Lord Wigg—that a good deal of mistrust is due to the fear of subversion and all the modern forms that it takes to-day. That is why a Security Conference and negotiations for a mutual and balanced force reduction are inter-related, but they merit quite different treatment.
I should like to say something about the preparatory talks in Helsinki. Surely the fact that 34 countries, including the United States and Canada, have gathered together there is in itself something of an achievement. It would not have been possible without the improvement in the relations between East and West to which the Federal German Government made such an important contribution. I was
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interested that my noble friend Lord Sandys had been in Helsinki, and I should like to join with him in saying how much we appreciate the part that the Government of Finland has played in providing the necessary facilities for these talks, as well as the I.P.U. conference to which he referred. With our partners and allies we have worked hard to try to prepare for the Conference, and by the time that the ambassadors met in November last year we had a fairly good idea of what we wanted to achieve in the preparatory talks, and then, if all went well, in the Conference itself. Her Majesty's Government have always believed that a European Conference of this kind would only yield useful results if attention was concentrated on practical measures to increase confidence. It is right that we should subscribe to declarations of common beliefs, but such declarations, I suggest, would mean very little to the people of Europe unless they can grow into real action that is effective.
I am glad to be able to report to the House that the consultations in Helsinki have so far achieved useful work. In the first session before Christmas, there was a round of opening statements and a discussion of the future programme of work. Agreement was reached on the broad form that a Conference should take. It would begin with a meeting of foreign Ministers in a general debate; then at official level committees and subcommittees would discuss thte various areas of the agenda in detail and make recommendations; and finally, a further Ministerial meeting.
When the talks resumed on January 15, the Italian, Belgian and Danish delegations, after full consultation among members of the Community and the Alliance, put forward detailed proposals on the questions to be discussed at the Conference, and our ambassador associated himself with these proposals. They divided the agenda roughly into three broad themes. The first is political and security matters—and we think these should cover the principles guilding relations between States, and certain military measures, such as the prior notification of military movements which are designed to allay suspicions about each other's military intentions. The second item, we thought, should concern economic and

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environmental co-operation. We should like to discuss such matters as commercial exchanges and co-operation in a wide variety of economic and technical fields, including the environment. The third item was one again referred to, in particular, by the noble Lord, Lord Brockway; that is, the development of human contacts, the broadening of educational and technical exchanges and much more information. As your Lordships know, our Allies and ourselves believe this to be essential. After the last Ministerial meeting of the North Atlantic Council in December the 15 Foreign Ministers declared that they were determined to bring about closer relationships, both collectively and individually, and they attached particular importance to freedom of movement.
We consider it essential that agreement should be reached at the preparatory talks on the terms of reference for the committees and sub-committees of the Conference. This is not just a procedural question, because when the consultations end in Helsinki, probably next month, the Governments will have to decide whether to take part in the Conference itself. I do not believe that any Government will wish to do this without knowing what is to be discussed and without a reasonable assurance that a Conference will be worth holding. Other delegations have of course made suggestions for the agenda. The neutral and non-aligned countries played a considerable part, and we very much welcome the fact that they did. All this is now being worked on in Helsinki. But the agenda must reflect the fact that the Conference is one on security and co-operation in Europe. It cannot hope, I suggest, to deal with everything, or turn itself into a mini-General Assembly of the United Nations, although its work will obviously be of great interest to countries who will not be taking part, particularly in the Mediterranean.
There are, of course, some European problems which a Conference of 34 countries cannot be expected to handle. For instance, as I have said already, we do not think it is the right place to discuss the detailed question of force reductions. As your Lordships know, the proposal for a Conference on European Security first came from the Soviet Union and its Allies, while the proposal for mutual and
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balanced force reductions was made by the NATO countries. We believe that the fundamental problem of European security is military security, because no guarantees on paper, no principles of conduct or statements of good intentions could ever be a protection against military power. This is why there is a close relationship between the M.B.F.R. talks and the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe.
My Lords, the first session of the exploratory talks on M.B.F.R. took place on January 31. We are therefore only at the beginning. But I think it would be worth describing some of the problems and the background to this matter. NATO countries first proposed that negotiations on mutual and balanced force reductions should be held as long ago as 1968, and this proposal was repeated on various occasions. It was not until the autumn of last year that the Soviet Union provisionally agreed to a broad timetable which covered the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe, as well as M.B.F.R. That timetable provided for the opening of exploratory talks on M.B.F.R. at the end of January.
On November 15 of last year the NATO countries directly involved in Central Europe invited the Soviet Union, Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia and the German Democratic Republic to open these exploratory discussions. Our invitation was only accepted on January 18, when the Warsaw Pact countries raised questions concerning participation which have not yet been entirely resolved. It was then—I say this in answer to the query put to me by the noble Lord, Lord Kennet—that they argued that the talks should take place in Vienna rather than in Geneva, where at the request of the NATO countries, and with the full knowledge of the Soviet Union and its Allies, the Swiss Government had already made administrative preparations. But in order to get these important talks started, our Allies and ourselves agreed to go to Vienna, and that is why the talks started there at the end of last month. I should like to take this opportunity to pay tribute to the Austrian Government for making all the facilities available at such short notice; and also to thank the Swiss Government for the arrangements that they made, and to express in public our great regret for the inconvenience which must

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have been caused by the last-minute change of plan.
The aim of these exploratory discussions is to prepare the way for serious negotiations, which we hope will begin in the autumn. The talks in Vienna will not be concerned with the complex and difficult issues which will have to be tackled during the negotiations. They will be concerned mainly with reaching agreement on the agenda, organisation, procedure, and who takes part before the actual negotiations begin. But there will of course be opportunities for each side to learn something of the other's thinking on the substantive questions, and it is important that we should establish through the exploratory talks that there really is a sound basis for real negotiation.
We have always believed that such negotiations should focus on the military situation in Central Europe. This is because it is in Central Europe that the military confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact is at its most acute.
The noble Lord, Lord Kennet, asked why it was right to limit those taking part in discussions on M.B.F.R. I think the answer lies in what I said about the exploratory nature of the talks, and the fact that if the actual negotiations are to yield the kind of results that we want they will have to be detailed and technical. It follows, I think, that they should be confined to the States that are directly involved in the military confrontation in Central Europe; in other words, those with forces and territories in that area. Certain other NATO and Warsaw Pact countries have a special geographical and military relationship with those principally concerned, and while they would not qualify as taking a direct part, it is right that they should play some part in the talks. The basis on which they should do so is among the questions now under discussion in Vienna. I understand this is known within NATO as "the problem of the rotating flanks".
There are those who argue for wider participation on the ground that the security of all European States will be affected by the outcome of the negotiations. We recognise that other European States have a legitimate interest in M.B.F.R. Our broad objective in negotiations is the same as that of the other
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members of the Alliance, and I hope it is also shared by the Warsaw Pact countries. It is to find some way of lowering the level of armed forces and armaments in Central Europe while at the same time keeping and maintaining undiminished security for us all.
The difficulties are of enormous complexity, and there are also the facts of the military situation. Defence expenditure in Western European countries has increased very little in real terms since 1968. By contrast, defence expenditure among the Warsaw Pact countries continues to increase. In the Soviet Union, for example, it has risen by 5 per cent. every year since the NATO countries first proposed talks on M.B.F.R. In fact the gap in conventional strength between NATO and the Warsaw Pact on the central front has continued to widen. In the central region alone, NATO has 23½ divisions and division-equivalents, compared with 70 of the Warsaw Pact. The fact that NATO divisions are half as large again as those of the Warsaw Pact means that the manpower ratio is only two to one, but even so I do not myself find that very comforting. The Warsaw Pact also has over 17.000 battle tanks in the central region, compared with 4,200 on the NATO side. When one considers artillery, the ratio is 5,000 as compared with 1.800. The Warsaw Pact forces also enjoy enormous advantages when it comes to reinforcement from peace-time levels. American reinforcements have to cross the Atlantic, whereas Soviet reinforcements could arrive much more quickly over short land routes.
I would suggest that these figures alone illustrate some of the problems that have to be overcome. They perhaps also explain why, at the NATO meeting in December, Ministers once more endorsed the principle that the overall military capability of NATO should not be reduced
"except as part of a pattern of mutual force reductions balanced in scope and timing."
should like, if I may, to remind the House that the United States reaffirmed its position that
given a similar approach by other countries of the Alliance, the United States would maintain and improve its forces in Europe and not reduce them unless there is reciprocal action by the other side."
LORD WIGG: My Lords, if I may ask the noble Baroness to give way, I hope

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it is not ungallant to charge her with having crocodile tears, but in so far as she speaks on behalf of a Conservative Administration, is it not the fact that Sir Anthony Eden gave an undertaking on behalf of a Conservative Government that Britain would maintain four divisions on the European land mass to the end of the century, and in the earlier White Paper four divisions were expressed as 88,000? Then it came to 77,000; then to 64,000; then 55,000; and we have never at any time since Sir Anthony Eden uttered these words, ever had 45,000. So to express regret now for the disparity between our strength and that of the Warsaw Pact countries means, if I may again misquote Shakespeare:
"The fault, dear Brutus, lies not in our stars but in ourselves."
BARONESS TWEEDSMUIR OF BELHELVIE: My Lords, if I may say so, "The fault, dear Brutus", no doubt lies also as much with the previous Government, who tried very hard, if I remember rightly, to reduce their expenditure on armaments.
LORD WIGG: My Lords, the previous Administration did not take steps to abolish conscription, which made it impossible to maintain 50,000.
BARONESS TWEEDSMUIR OF BELHELVIE: Perhaps, my Lords, I might be allowed to ask a question: Is the noble Lord, Lord Wigg, in favour of having conscription now?
LORD WIGG: My Lords, a thousand times yes; ten thousand times—on military and social grounds.
BARONESS TWEEDSMUIR OF BELHELVIE: My Lords, I know that the noble Lord, Lord Wigg, is a very ardent supporter of the Army, and it is good to hear him so clear on this question—
LORD WIGG LORD WIGG rose—
BARONESS TWEEDSMUIR OF BELHELVIE: My Lords, I think perhaps I should finish, because the House has been listening to me long enough. I will only say that I should be interested to know whether the noble Lord's profound belief that there should be conscription is also the official policy of the Party to which I understand he belongs.
LORD WIGG: My Lords, the noble Baroness knows perfectly well that it is not the policy of the Labour Party, and she is playing political tricks when she tries to fasten on to what I say. I held the view before I became a Minister; I held it during the time I was a Minister, and I hold the same view now: I say that this country cannot discharge its obligations to Europe or to itself unless it has a compulsory military service of some kind. It has gone back on it, and now I think it is too late.
BARONESS TWEEDSMUIR OF BELHELVIE: My Lords, I must thank the noble Lord for being so frank with us all. But it is time I ended this rather long speech, illumined as it has been by the last interruption. I should like to quote something which was said in another place by a Front Bench spokesman for the Opposition. I thought the words were rather good, and that is why I am repeating them:
"we all should feel as safe at the end"—
of the negotiations—
"as we do at the beginning."—[OFFICIAL. REPORT, Commons, 14/12/72, col. 670.]
This really is what I think should be in the back of all our minds as we approach these various preparatory talks. Because, although an arrangement under which each side reduced its forces by an equal percentage appears fair at first glance, in view of the present and growing disparity in forces and armaments and the geographical factors involved, such an arrangement would put the West at a serious disadvantage. That is why negotiations are likely to be at least as complex as any that have hitherto been undertaken and why I would advise the House that it would be unwise to expect early results.
5.27 p.m.
LORD KENNET: My Lords, the House will not expect me to take up every speech that has been made. However, on behalf of the whole House I must thank the noble Lord, Lord Sandys, for the news he brought from Helsinki. It was indeed interesting to have someone with snow still virtually on his boots, as he put it himself, to tell us what is happening.
The debate has been enlivened by the sudden outbreak of sniping between the authoritarian and the libertarian wings

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of my own Party: across the Severn. My noble friend Lord Wigg said that in his opinion every action taken by President Nixon had been designed towards winning the election. My Lords, I should hope so. That is what democrats are for, in my view, and if the American nation wanted better relations with China and Russia and the end of the Vietnam war, that is exactly what President Nixon has given them, and it is precisely because of their confidence that he was going to do that that they did re-elect him last autumn.
On the question of the "cruciform world", may I explain to the noble Lord, Lord Bourne, that it is simply a matter of the world containing four great centres of armed power, America, Russia, China, Western Europe. It happens to lie in the form of a cross, if you are looking at the world from the North Pole. That is all I mean by "cruciform". May I say this to the noble Lord, Lord Hankey: I am sure that Dr. Henry Kissinger was right in his television interview with Marvin Kalb, that the world is a five-centre one and not a four-centre one. I entirely agree with him that we are coming to that, but I think he was looking a little further ahead, because it strikes the eye that Japan is not at the moment a country of great military might. Its economic might is quite overwhelming; but as a military force Japan is not yet in the big league. Of course, neither is Western Europe, and there is no such thing as "Western European armament". Nevertheless, there are a lot of Western European countries that are armed, and together they are in alliance. The world, as I see it, has four centres now and these may become five centres later. Which is preferable? "You pays your money and you takes your choice". The four has a certain in-built stability about it; the five may be a bit like a handful of billiard balls, but it is certainly better than three and much better than two, which we had before.
If I may come now to the speech of the noble Baroness on behalf of the Government, I must thank her very much for giving me, by my reckoning, 2½ answers to my 11 questions. They were useful and full answers. I cannot conceal that I think 2½ out of 11 is a low ratio from
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what I hope was a responsible Opposition speech on the subject.
BARONESS TWEEDSMUIR OF BELHELVIE: My Lords, I am loth to interrupt the noble Lord, but I think his arithmetic is wrong. He may also remember that the question on Iceland was answered this afternoon.
LORD KENNET: My Lords, if that was counted it was 2½, out of 10. I do not think my arithmetic is wrong. The noble Baroness gave a good answer about China; a good answer about the location of M.B.F.R. in Vienna, and half an answer on the membership of M.B.F.R. That was how I totted it up.
I seriously regret that we still have no answer on why we have not taken up the Russian invitation to join the naval treaty; that we still have no answer on why we abstained on the General Assembly's resolution of the report from SALT; and why, after two years' repeated questioning, we still have no answer on where the 600 missiles are to be talked about. If the, noble Baroness were able to say to the House, "We do not yet know whether they will be talked about in SALT or M.B.F.R.; but we can promise that they are going to be talked about in one of them or we will know the reason why", the House and I would be satisfied. But the noble Baroness has not said that. She has said, "It is too early to predict the scope of M.B.F.R. or SALT." If the scope of both is insufficient to permit discussion of the 600 missiles, the Government are in quite severe dereliction of duty towards the security of this country.
My Lords, let me wind up by endorsing what the noble Baroness said in thanks to the Swiss Government for their abortive effort. It is a pity that it went that way. There is a slightly dangerous and unpleasant situation, but I understand the reasons for which we agreed to go to Vienna. Let me thank the noble Baroness most heartily for hammering home once again, as Sir Alec did in the House of Commons on December 22, the facts and figures about the Eastern predominance over NATO in Europe. My Lords, I beg to withdraw my Motion for Papers.
Motion for Papers, by leave, with-drawn.

LONDON TRAFFIC CONTROL
5.32 p.m.
Lord MOLSON Lord MOLSON rose to ask Her Majesty's Government: Whether they are satisfied with the present allocation of responsibility for the control of London traffic. The noble Lord said: My Lords, this is a genuine request for information, although, as is often customary when an Unstarred Question is asked, I shall express some opinions as to what should be done. I originally put this subject on the Order Paper many weeks ago, largely as a result of the appalling congestion in Covent Garden at the conclusion of a performance of the Royal Opera Company. Since then the subject has received considerable prominence. First, the Prime Minister was held up in a traffic jam, which prevented him from arriving by car at one of his official engagements. He arrived on foot. It is a fortunate event that this should have happened, for when he has the problem of London's transport borne so forcefully to his attention, it is likely that something will be done. I believe that that traffic jam was due to a juggernaut breaking down in Parliament Square. Secondly—and this may be in part as a consequence of the first event—the Greater London Council have banned all lorries from travelling into Central London, except those which are going to a London destination. Thirdly, there was Mr. Peyton's successful resistance to the proposal of the Common Market countries that heavier lorries should be allowed on our roads. Fourthly, only last week there was published the Expenditure Committee's Report on Urban Transport Planning. That is a most remarkable and important Report by a Select Committee from another place.
When I was at the Ministry of Transport, the Minister of Transport was the London traffic authority. Remembering the difficulties that he had, I am glad to know that this responsibility has been transferred to the Greater London Council. I feel the utmost sympathy with them in the heavy responsibility they have undertaken. When my noble friend Lord Boyd-Carpenter became Minister of Transport I warned him that at any moment there might be a serious traffic jam holding up the whole of London's traffic for many hours; and that he would be in great difficulties. I said that the
1110
Minister's head would probably be demanded on a charger. We just got by at that time.
Legislators, whether they are in Parliament or at County Hall across the river, are not as blind to problems of traffic and the like as outsiders sometimes think. But they cannot go very far ahead of public opinion. Politics, as has often been said, is the art of the possible. All Ministers of Transport have tried to keep up with public opinion, and even to push it a little further ahead. During the past 20 years I am glad to think that immense progress has been made in the regulation of traffic, and still more in the thinking that is applied to it. This is due in considerable measure to the remarkable Report on that subject by Professor Colin Buchanan. It is worth while considering how great is the progress there has been in the past 20 years.
Noble Lords will be surprised to hear that when, by the Road Traffic Act 1956, we introduced parking meters we were thought to be ahead of public opinion at that time. I remember those wise and experienced judges of Parliamentary opinion, the Whips, telling us that we must not nail the flag of parking meters to the mast because it was quite likely that there would be a revolt against our proposal and we should have to drop it. We were threatened at that time by direct action from the motorists, some of whom said that they would invade London in a great flood as soon as parking meters were introduced in order to demonstrate how completely unworkable our ideas were. Parking meters are now accepted with practically no criticism as a valuable contribution to the regulation of traffic. In just the same way we should have liked to introduce a great many more one-way streets than we were able to do; but there was every indication that anything like the one-way system that we have now would not at that time have been acceptable to public opinion.
My Lords, whoever is the traffic authority for London, there is an inevitable dichotomy between the traffic authority which legislates and the police who have to enforce the legislation. I very well remember that sometimes the Metropolitan Police—the traffic assistant commissioner—would ask for additional

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no-parking orders. On more than one occasion we replied, "Well, really that is not a reasonable request because you are not enforcing the no-parking orders that exist at the present time." To that the police replied, perfectly reasonably, "It is impossible for us to enforce when motorists quite politely and civilly ask: 'Well, if I may not park here, where can I go to park?'" The answer at that time was that there was not a sufficiency of off-the-street parking accommodation. Everybody has to recognise that the police have to maintain good relations with the public, otherwise they could not discharge their duties efficiently and satisfactorily. We certainly understood the difficulties of the police. I think that at the present time there is a sufficiency of off-the-street parking space in London. Certainly the great garage under Hyde Park is, as far as I know, never full. But, admittedly, much of the off-the-street parking accommodation is quite a considerable distance from where the motorist wishes to park.
We were also at that time confronted by the great difficulty the police had in enforcing no-parking orders. At that time it was necessary for a police constable to wait until the driver of the car who had parked appeared. After wasting a great deal of time in standing near the illegally parked car, the police constable would see somebody who looked like the driver of the car come along, and, seeing a police constable standing there, at once go away and remain away until the police constable himself had gone. In the Road Traffic Act 1956 we improved that position and made the liability that of the owner of the car. But I believe that the position is still not satisfactory and something more will have to be done to facilitate proceedings against illegal parkers. Since my time there has been legislation which has facilitated what I might call selective traffic regulations. There were the Road Traffic Regulation Act 1967 and the London Authorities Traffic Order Regulations 1972. The most interesting, and I think promising, experiment which is being conducted at the present time in banning private cars from part of Oxford Street has been carried out under this legislation.
I should like to ask my noble friend whether regulation of this kind could not
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be selectively applied in the Covent Garden area, especially in the evening. At the present time it really is nothing less than a national disgrace. On one side of Bow Street is the Royal Opera House; on the other side is Bow Street police station. As, apparently, there are no adequate regulations applying to traffic there, despite the fact that the police are present in force in Bow Street police station nothing effective is ever done to control the traffic. When a performance at the Opera House is over, traffic comes from both sides. Cars have frequently been parked outside for hours; and the police, having no plan, occasionally spasmodically instruct all waiting cars to do a circle round the neighbouring buildings and come back again—which of course is no solution to the problem. Vegetable lorries, which (I am not sure of this) I believe are not supposed to come into that part of London before 11 o'clock at night, frequently appear, causing great obstruction; and Long Acre, which is the normal way for traffic from the Opera House to go to the West End, is frequently completely blocked. I hope the Government will not reply that as the Market is likely to be removed in another 18 months or two years it is not necessary for anything to be done until then.
My Lords, my Parliamentary Question relates to London traffic, but I have ventured, with the indulgence of your Lordships, to refer to this extremely important Report of the Expenditure Committee on Urban Transport Planning. I hope that my noble friend will be able to give an assurance that the customary reply which the Government produce to reports of this kind will not be long delayed. There are a great many recommendations with which I will not weary your Lordships, but the two objectives are quite brief and indicate how forward-looking this Committee have been. Probably most of your Lordships would agree that the objectives they lay down can be regarded as necessary and wise. The first is:
"National policy should be directed towards promoting public transport and discouraging the use of cars for the journey to work in city areas."
Secondly:
"The Department of the Environment should have a positive policy for urban transport laying down a broad approach which should ensure that local authorities follow."

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This Unstarred Question of mine and this brief debate only just refer to the outlines of a problem in so far as it affects London. But I believe that, whether or not the Government produce in the near future a complete statement of their attitude upon this Report, this House will probably want a full debate upon this matter. It clearly is of the utmost importance for the urban environment, which was so fully and well debated in this House last week, and also it is essential for the economy of the country.
5.49 p.m.
LORD CHAMPION: My Lords, I am sure we are most grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Molson, for asking this Question. It is an extremely important one. Most of us who spend some time in London are bound to know something about it. I cannot restrict myself too narrowly or strictly to the confines of the Question but must expand a little into what is a very complex subject. So far as I can see, there are at least four parties involved in every major decision affecting London's traffic. They are the Greater London Council, the police, the borough councils or the Common Council, and the Minister of the Environment or the Minister for Transport Industries under him. The G.L.C. have the primary duty in the control of London traffic and have to take the initiative in all matters affecting it. What do the G.L.C. think about all this? To find out, I turned to the most authoritative statement of their position made in evidence given to the Environment and Home Office Sub-Committee of the Commons Select Committee on Expenditure, whose Report was published in December last, and I must say that I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Molson, in his statement about the excellence of that Report and its importance. It is one that will be studied—or ought to be studied by everyone who has anything at all to do with urban traffic.
Clearly, the general duty laid upon the G.L.C. to
"secure the expeditious, convenient and safe movement of vehicular and other traffic and the provision of suitable parking facilities on and off the highway"—
to quote the 1963 Act, can be carried out satisfactorily only within an overall plan for development, such as the Greater London Development Plan which has now emerged from the Layfield Panel of
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Inquiry, the report of which Inquiry I understand the Secretary of State is to publish shortly, and also a Government Statement on it. That Greater London Development Plan resulted from the requirement of the 1963 Act to produce such a plan which would lay down,
"considerations of general policy with respect to the use of land in various parts of Greater London, including, in particular, guidance as to the future road system."
Just what has been involved in all this preparation of a Plan by way of consultation with borough councils, traffic studies and consultation with the Police is set out in the Memorandum of Evidence submitted to the sub-committee by the Greater London Council, and it is printed in Volume II of the Report. In particular the memorandum says:
"it is the lengthy process of consultations with every possible interest which restricts progress and not finance".
Later in the same Memorandum the G.L.C. draw attention to the fact that the "way ahead lies with the central Government" because,
"progress cannot be made in many instances until decisions on the Greater London Development Plan issues have been taken by the Secretary of State for the Environment."
On the point of consultation between the G.L.C. and the borough councils, Sir Desmond Plummer said:
"I think that the London Government Act 1963 did not sufficiently clearly define the areas between the two parties. I think that if these had been more clearly defined it would have simplified the process and made less opportunity for argument."
The first questions that I have to put to the Government are therefore these. First, do the Government agree with the Greater London Council in the matter of inevitable delays on the major aspects of London planning, particularly as it affects the Government itself; and, secondly, would the Government also agree that the allocation of responsibility between the G.L.C. and the London boroughs is in need of a clearer definition than is contained in the London Government Act? The second duty laid on the Greater London Council by Part II of that Act was the responsibility for making an Order for controlling vehicular and other traffic, and also in this connection there is the obligation before making the Order to consult the Commissioner for the Police and the boroughs and the Common Council where it is

1115
appropriate. The Council must always take into consideration the Minister's reserve power to give a direction to make such an Order, or a direction prohibiting the making of such an Order. The consultation with the police is very important for, after all, they are the enforcing authority.
What is the police attitude to the making of an Order and its enforcement, and also to the general problem of London's traffic? In this connection, I propose to quote at some length from a report that appeared in The Times on January 25 headed, "Keeping London Traffic Moving", in which Mr. Henry Hunt, the Assistant Commissioner in charge of traffic, dealt with this matter, The report says:
"Generally speaking, Mr. Hunt said, his association with the G.L.C. was not a difficult one and they had really the same objectives in view.
He continued: 'What I am concerned about from time to time is as a traffic authority they are anxious to implement many of their schemes which they think will benefit London.
Everything that I have to consider when certain schemes are put forward is: is this for the benefit of the free circulation of London's traffic as a general principle? I can safely leave out the question of protecting the Londoner, as that is always in our minds. No one I have ever worked with has suggested that that should be a secondary consideration.
Any scheme that is introduced for traffic in London must have some teeth to it and be capable of enforcement and those that are charged with the enforcement of the law must be armed with the necessary powers to enforce it. I mean powers for the benefit of the community as a whole. Therefore I should like all schemes that are to the benefit of the community and for the free circulation of London's traffic to be designed as far as possible to be self-enforcing. That is because we have only limited numbers from which to draw manpower'."—
that is, manpower for enforcement.
After remarking that London over the past 37 years has been toying with the problem but has not really got down to it—and here he was speaking about the necessity for circular roads—he then spoke about the problem of enforcement, and especially enforcement of the law on parking, saying:
"We have not got teeth in relation to the laws on parking…We are unable to enforce the law for some reason or another against 40 to 45 per cent. of the drivers who receive parking tickets."
But, my Lords, car parking is not the only police problem: there is the problem
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of lorry parking, the routing of heavy lorries and the enforcement of the law on bus lanes. On car parking, the tale is a sorry one. It is the old tale of the law falling into disrepute if it is not enforced. On the matter of the penalties enforced for meter infringements the deterioration over the past few years is indeed frightening. The House will of course be aware of the fixed penalty system under which you pay up or risk prosecution. In 1966, fixed penalty notices were issued in 271,000 cases, and of these some 92,000 were non-payers—they did not pay up. In 1971, 1,018,507 notices were served and non-payers had increased to the amazing total of 580.000—nearly 50 per cent. of those upon whom these notices were served.
Why did they get away with it? In the main they got away with it because of the difficulty of finding the drivers of the vehicles, and it is no wonder that the Hall Expenditure Committee recommended the adoption of the police suggestion of "keeper liability", which is a technical term covering the liability of the owner of the vehicle, under which he would be liable to conviction under the fixed penalty procedure if the penalty was not paid by the driver of the vehicle.
The noble Lord, Lord Molson, talked of what happened when the meters were brought in initially. He said there was talk then of a revolt against the parking meter. I do not know that there is so much of a revolt against the meter to-day as a revolt against paying, judging from the figures I have quoted and which are in my opinion quite frightening.
On the routing of lorries, the subcommittee recommended that local authorities should be further required to lay down specific routes for heavy lorries to follow, and be encouraged to establish special parks for the overnight garaging of heavy vehicles in their areas. In this connection Mr. Hunt, the Traffic Commissioner whom I mentioned, said:
"Because there are no circular roads, and the M.4 is already open and the M.3 and the M.11 will be open soon, lorry drivers, transporters and containers and heavy tankers have found it easier to drive in through the west London area and through the central London area than go round the outskirts."
The noble Lord, Lord Molson, said that something had been done about this matter but I confess that I was not aware of that fact. I shall be glad to receive

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confirmation when the Minister replies that something has been done. The duty of the Greater London Council, the borough councils and the Common Council on routing seems to be clear, for it would fall within the order-making powers of the G.L.C.
One could go on about London's traffic problems for a long time. I must say how much I agreed with the noble Lord, Lord Molson, when he said that eventually we must have a full-scale day's debate on this important matter. We must of course also consider the commuter and the public transport solutions that might be possible. In this connection, I welcome the joint statement of the Minister for Transport Industries and the G.L.C. announcing the setting up of the London Rail Study. The only comment I would make on this issue is that I should have thought that most of the factors which will enter into such a study are already very well known and that what is really required, rather than another time-consuming study, is a decision on improving the facilities for what has become known as "Park and ride". When in Government one always tends to go in for studies, Royal Commissions and all sorts of other things which only put off taking decisions. It is an old tactic which Governments of all complexions, including my own, have followed. However, eventually decisions will have to be made, and I rather suspect that the factors on which decisions could be based are in this instance already known.
I can best sum up by saying that the trouble with London, as with most large towns and cities, is too much traffic for too little road space. There is too little enforcement of the orders made by the G.L.C., partly because of the need for amendment of the law to bring in "keeper liability" in relation to parking offences and partly because there are too few police and wardens for the job that has to be done. There are also too lengthy delays in completing and then implementing development plans, partly because of excessive consultations and partly because of delays on the part of central Government.
Given the acceptance of the necessity for democratic control by local government, I cannot honestly find much wrong
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with the present allocation of responsibility for the control of London's traffic. I do not know what I could put in its place. What is required is action on some of the points I have mentioned, as well as action—here I strongly agreed with the noble Lord, Lord Molson—on many of the recommendations made by the Expenditure Sub-Committee on Urban Planning. I heartily agree about the importance of these recommendations, the need to consider them carefully and particularly the need to implement them as soon as is humanly possible.
6.6 p.m.
LORD FERRIER: My Lords, I welcome my noble friend's Question. An indication of the great value to your Lordships' House of the device of the Unstarred Question is that it enables us to raise important matters of topical interest. I should have liked to hear the Government reply before I spoke, but I know that a Peer who speaks after a Minister has replied to a debate is not always popular, particularly when an Unstarred Question is under consideration. I therefore hope that your Lordships will forgive me if I speak for a few minutes to reinforce what my noble friend said and what was said in support of his remarks by the noble Lord, Lord Champion, about the need for a full-dress debate on this matter. I suggest that such a debate is necessary in relation not only to the traffic problem of London but to the problem of traffic generally because it is one that affects all large towns and cities, not least my own native city of Edinburgh.
Curiously enough, I was turning up the OFFICIAL REPORT of the debate which took place in 1967 on the Third London Airport. I found that at that time I produced a bee which I have had in my bonnet ever since—namely, that the reclamation required for a London Airport on the Maplin Sands and a barrage across the Thames could be used as an opportunity for making an additional orbital highway to connect the Midlands with the Channel Ports, thereby relieving London's traffic of a great many heavy vehicles which at present must come into the city. After all, they have to come into it in order to get through it.
There are two important factors which have so far not been mentioned. One is the fact that by law drivers are not

1119
allowed to drive for more than a certain number of hours each day, and then they must stop. The trouble is that there is sometimes nowhere for them to stop. In this connection, one's mind goes back to Sir Colin Buchanan's Report, to which my noble friend referred, in which the phrase "orbital highway" appeared for the first time, certainly in this country. Since that Report was published the concept of the orbital highway has been broadly accepted and is now regarded as meaning a road on which provision must be made for drivers to be able to drive off the highway, have security for their loads and be given provision for refreshment and rest. I am looking forward with interest to the Minister's reply, because this is a very wide-ranging subject and concerns the whole problem of providing space. For only by providing additional space for an orbital highway shall we begin to solve our traffic problem. As the noble Lord, Lord Molson, said, if there is nowhere for people to park, they are justified in asking, "Where may we stop?"
I read with great interest the Report of the debate last week on the Motion of the noble Lord, Lord Nugent of Guildford, and I was particularly struck by the remarks of the noble Lord, Lord Airedale, in which he drew attention to the electric car. To what extent is the environmental view, as it were, of London's traffic problem taken into account? The development of the electric car is inevitable. What assistance are the Government giving to the technical development of a suitable battery, in which respect I believe great advances have recently been made? The second point I might mention (in the absence of my noble friend Lord Conesford) is containerisation. That is another aspect of environmental, overall planning that will have to be taken into account, not in years to come but as from now. If lorries are to get any bigger, and even if they remain the size they are to-day, they will not be allowed to come into the centres of towns. There will have to be containerisation; and on orbital systems, or elsewhere, there will have to be stations at which transfers can be made of containers on to vehicles which will be acceptable in the centres of cities. I should like to repeat what I said; that I
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hope, with the noble Lord, Lord Molson, that we may have a debate on a larger scale on this matter in the very near future.
6.11 p.m.
LORD CAMOYS: My Lords, I did not put my name down on the list of speakers, but with your permission I should like to say a few words. I disagree to a great extent with the noble Lord, Lord Molson, and other noble Peers. First of all, on the question of parking in London, we must bear in mind that the private motorist is probably the most heavily taxed person that there is. The taxes on a motorcar are enormous and there is also the cost of insurance; therefore he should be allowed to park in London. Secondly, I object very strongly to the system by which the police tow away from places such as, let us say, St. James's Square or Berkeley Square, cars which have been parked too long. They are employing a very expensive system as it needs two police officers, a driver and someone else. I am not talking about cars which are parked in dangerous places—that is another matter—but I am talking about cars which are parked in safe places. This action adds to the traffic congestion, as there is the stoppage when they pull the car out and drive it to wherever they take it. I suggest to your Lordships that it would be much better to put a parking notice of £10 or even £20 on the car that stays there too long, rather than employ our very sparse police force in such a ridiculous operation. I feel most strongly about that. I believe also that we must try to provide in the centre of London, instead of the unused huge office blocks, proper motor parking buildings. With your Lordships' leave I make that suggestion to the House.
6.13 p.m.
LORD SOMERS: My Lords, I apologise also for not having put my name down, but I should like to say a word or two about this extremely important problem, which well merits the Question which the noble Lord, Lord Molson, has put down. The suggestion has been made in the past that motorists should be excluded from London altogether. A preliminary experiment has been made in Oxford Street, as noble Lords know. I am not sure whether that is the solution: but one thing to me is quite certain, and that is

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that if it were to be done then something would have to be done about public transport. During rush hours public transport is running to full capacity now, and if it is asked to take any more it will find it quite impossible. So far as the Underground is concerned, trains are running practically nose to tail. What are you going to do? Are you going to build an extra pair of lines? If so, it will cost a fortune. Therefore it seems to me that some other solution must be found. Buses, too, are running to absolutely full capacity during rush hours.
My Lords, I do not know that I can go all the way with the noble Lord, Lord Molson, in his praise for what the parking meter has done. It certainly has shown where one may park and where one may not park, but, on the other hand, it has not made it any easier to park, because when one finds a line of parking meters they are invariably full and one cannot wait there for a quarter of an hour, hoping that one of the cars may move out. I remember some years ago—it must have been about ten years ago—when I was still driving, I drove in a complete circle around Grosvenor Square which was absolutely packed, hoping that one of the cars would move out so that I could leave my car there. But none did, and so I gave it up and had to find somewhere else.
LORD MOLSON: My Lords, if the noble Lord will allow me to interrupt, may I say that the purpose of the parking meter is to limit the time which any individual may occupy part of the limited space? It is not thought of as being a way of providing additional parking space; it means that the parking space on the roads is divided among the various people who want to park there and the profits, if any, from the parking meters are used for providing off-street parking accommodation.
LORD SOMERS: Yes, my Lords, I understand that. But on the other hand, I do not think that that is the real solution, because the traffic is not eased whether your car or somebody else's car is opposite a parking meter. How are you to know where there is going to be a space where you can put your car? I do not really believe that that is the solution.
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I was very interested to notice last week that opposite the Albert Hall, on the eastbound side of Kensington Gore, a special lane for buses had been made. I regret to say that a great deal of commercial and private traffic uses that lane when the buses are not there—which certainly implies that we need a great deal more in the way of lane discipline in our driving tests. But it is a very interesting experiment, because buses are without doubt one of the greatest causes of holdups in London traffic. I shall never forget the day when we had a one-day bus strike and I was driving through London. My Lords, it was like driving through open country. There was practically no opposition whatsoever. Buses, naturally, are always stopping and very often in great numbers, and they cause a great deal of obstruction. Possibly some system by which one could allocate certain roads to buses and others to private cars may be possible, but it is very difficult in a city so complicated as London where no two streets run in the same direction.
I have every sympathy with what the noble Lord, Lord Champion, said about the division of authorities in making rules about traffic, because if there is one thing that is notable about local governments it is the fact that they can never agree with one another and therefore, as the noble Lord said, I believe that the police should most certainly be consulted. Apart from that, there should be one single authority which makes rules for the whole of London. The private motorist is blamed for a good deal that is not really his fault. I know that a great deal is his fault. As regards the matter of parking, for instance, parking meters have removed parking from the main roads altogether, with the exception of course of commercial vehicles, which can park where they like. How often does one; find a commercial vehicle standing by the curb around which all the buses have to manoeuvre! That makes for a great deal of traffic congestion. If only there could be some system by which we could provide special parking bays for commercial traffic; it would be an expensive procedure certainly, but something, I should have thought, must be done to get these commercial vehicles off the main roads. This is something that must be

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done, because, as other noble Lords have said, if it is not then before very long the traffic in London will come to an absolute standstill.
6.21 p.m.
LORD ARDWICK: My Lords, may I call attention to what I think is a fallacy in the speech of the noble Lord who has just spoken? He spoke about buses being full to capacity in the rush hour. This is of course perfectly true. But the capacity of a bus is not to be judged by the number of people in it but by the number of passenger-miles it can travel in a given time, and that number of passenger-miles would be enormously increased if there were no private traffic and commercial traffic hindering the flow of the buses. I am not sure, too, that when the noble Lord talked about the nuisance of the buses he was conveying a very good image of this House: it sounded as though it was a terrible thing that the motorist should be incommoded by the common people riding in buses. But of course it is the private cars, carrying a relatively small number of people, that are incommoding the vast number of people who have to travel in buses, who have no other transport and cannot have any other transport—and, indeed, whom this city could not accommodate once they all found themselves in possession of the means to run a private car. The private car has to be dealt with in some radical way, as has the commercial vehicle, before we can get the real flow of traffic that we need. I am quite sure that if this were done we could have an extremely efficient and cheap public transport system.
6.23 p.m.
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, as noble Lords have said, the House, and, I would add, not least the Government, should be grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Molson, for raising this very important subject of the control of traffic in this our capital city. In these days, at the end of the third quarter of the 20th century, it seemed to me somewhat ironic yesterday when we had no less a figure than Queen Boadicea being paid homage to and invoked as part of an effort to draw attention to a local road problem. At least I am glad that in this House to-night no one has suggested what Caractacus might have done about London's
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traffic problems. Because we are living in a situation which has changed considerably since those days, is changing, and is changing fast every day we live. The main change in this context is, of course, the enormous increase in the ownership of private cars which has led to the greatly increased density of traffic in London.
This traffic, as your Lordships know, is properly the concern of the Greater London Council. They are the traffic regulating authority. On the other hand, law and order in London are the responsibility of the Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, and this responsibility includes the enforcement of the road traffic law and the day-to-day direction and control of traffic flow. Problems of traffic management are essentially local, and it is therefore appropriate that they should be dealt with at a local level. But it is important that traffic should not be considered in isolation; it must be looked at as part of the whole transport situation in an area. I have already said that the G.L.C. is the traffic authority for London. This Council is also responsible for preparing transport plans for the whole of Greater London and for the activities of the London Transport Executive.
It is unfortunate that public attention tends to be drawn to the problem of traffic congestion only when the system temporarily fails to cope with some unfortunate and unpredictable combination of circumstances. And we must get this into perspective. Every so often there is bound to be a totally unusual conjunction of events which results in the sort of snarl-up about which we all like to complain. But rather than looking for someone to blame on these occasions, I think it would be fairer to remember how well the Greater London Council and the Metropolitan Police cope most of the time. Although the volume of traffic has grown steadily at about 5 per cent. a year for the last 20 years, the roads in London are to-day safer and the vehicle speeds are higher than ever before. That this has been achieved reflects greatly to the credit of the responsible authorities. I should particularly like to pay tribute to London's police and traffic wardens. Keeping the traffic moving on our roads is a thankless and

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difficult task which makes great and constant demands on them, and for the most part goes unsung. Certainly the individual motorist is rarely to be heard praising traffic wardens or the police. Yet it is mainly thanks to their unending and untiring efforts that so many traffic jams are prevented.
It is very easy for the public—and even, as the noble Lord has reminded us, the Prime Minister—to have the impression that there are very few police operating in the centre of a traffic jam. The reason for this, of course, is quite simple. But before I go on I should like to say, concerning the Prime Minister and the famous walk on November 29, that I think the fact that he was able to complete his journey on foot did arouse his concern for those who he knew would not be able to do this. Hence his famous telephone call to Sir Desmond Plummer. The reason why he and other people do not see police at the centre of a traffic jam is understandable from the analogy of a log jam. If you have a log jam, no lumberjack starts to unscramble it at the centre of the jam. What does he do? He goes to the periphery. That is what the police did on that evening of November 29, and what they do on any other occasion on which there is a jam; they start to release the jam from the outside.
Admittedly the Covent Garden/Bow Street area, to which the noble Lord, Lord Molson, referred in particular, and indeed the whole part of the West End which we know as theatreland, do have very real traffic congestion problems in the evenings. It is largely caused by people driving in and trying to park. If public transport were used by more people this would undoubtedly ease the problem. London Transport have tried to help by running a Star Bus service to cater for this traffic, but unfortunately the service is not being patronised sufficiently. I am sure that the traffic authorities will note the suggestion of the noble Lord, Lord Molson, of a one-way traffic lane there, and I will leave it at that.
Although we have achieved much in London by traffic management and control, there is not much further scope for improvement of this kind at the moment, because if things are not to get very much worse some more drastic action is needed, and soon. The G.L.C., of course, are well aware of this, and last July they
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published that excellent discussion paper Traffic and the Environment, which set out their ideas as to what might be done over the next decade. I would draw the attention of the House to the G.L.C.s paper as evidence of what they are doing, and how they are doing it, to find the best way of enabling, encouraging and persuading road users to come to terms with all the rest of London's traffic problems. I understand that their decisions on the measures described in their paper are due to be announced very shortly.
The noble Lords, Lord Molson, Lord Champion and Lord Ferrier, drew attention to the problems of heavy lorries in our capital city. We often express concern on this matter, because the congestion these lorries cause is obvious, and so is the resulting ill effect on our environment. We know that the G.L.C. are considering this matter in several ways, and you will have seen in the Press that they are to ban, except for access, so-called "juggernaut lorries" from parts of Central London. This will cover an area of six square miles North of the Thames. The noble Lord, Lord Ferrier, raised the point that the parking of these lorries in residential streets is going to be a very big problem, because the G.L.C. have already banned overnight parking of lorries in places such as Tower Hamlets and they intend within the next two years to extend this ban to over 60 square miles of Inner London. This is going to be a problem, because the lorries must park somewhere, and the G.L.C. have set up a working party to consider the question and look for sites to form lorry parks as part of the national network of strategic lorry parks. Of course, we must realise that there is a risk that in solving one problem of this sort we may create another; but only by experiment can we go further, and only by experiment can we find out what the final solution is going to be.
On road pricing of vehicles, I do not think I can add to what my noble friend Lord Gowrie said in the debate last week on the urban environment, so I should like to leave that alone. The noble Lords, Lord Camoys and Lord Somers, asked about the parking problem. I do not want to go further into the matter of parking than the G.L.C. paper, Traffic and the Environment. Your Lordships can see from that which way

1127
the thinking is going. The noble Lord, Lord Champion, said that the non-payment of fines in connection with meter parking and illegal parking where there are no meters is "frightening"—that I think was the word he used. The effective enforcement of these regulations has been made very difficult by the number of drivers who evaded the fixed penalty by saying that they were not the driver.
The Commissioner of Police of the Metropolis and the G.L.C. both favour legislating for owner liability, which would make the owner rather than the driver of a vehicle liable for certain minor road traffic offences. The Government are fully aware of these views and, as stated in an Answer on January 24 in another place, we are considering the possibility of legislation on this particular subject. I do not think that I can add any more to that. My noble friend Lord Ferrier asked me about electric transport, and what we were doing about it. This is not really germane to traffic control, but the Department of Trade and Industry is at the moment underwriting a project for an electric bus which is being tried out in Leeds and other cities. Of course this has important implications, as he will see.
My Lords, although I have stressed the important role of local authorities in dealing with traffic and other transport matters, this does not mean that the Government are trying to avoid playing a part in transport matters, in London or elsewhere. Quite the reverse. We believe that the solution to the problems of traffic congestion lies, at least in part, in improving public transport services so that they offer a reasonable alternative to the private car—especially for the journey to work. Many noble Lords have mentioned this, and we agree with what they have said. The sort of reduction in traffic congestion that would be achieved if commuters used public transport instead of their cars is well illustrated by the fact that 700 people coming into London use 500 cars. The same number of people could travel in 14 buses, or in just one train. I agree so much with what the noble Lord, Lord Ardwick, said here.
For these reasons, the Government are giving the highest priority to improvements
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in public transport. Since June, 1970, we have committed over £66 million to improving the Underground. In addition to investing in London Transport, the Government have committed a further £50 million to improving British Railways London and South-East commuter network, as well as subsidising fares to the tune of £10 million a year. Although this stretches far beyond London, it is an essential element in the transport system which enables the capital to function effectively. Nor have the Government forgotten the London bus. We now pay half the cost of London's new buses and up to three-quarters of the cost of creating bus lanes like the one in Oxford Street. These grants are now running at the rate of a further £3 million to £4 million a year. So, although no single action by the Government can solve London's transport problems, the very large sums which are being invested in the public transport system should in due course help to alleviate them.
With regard to the Expenditure Committee's report, to which the noble Lord, Lord Molson—and other noble Lords—referred, and his wish for an undertaking that the Government would make money available for the suggested projects, the noble Lord will know, from his own experience as a Minister in the Ministry of Transport, that the Government will need to look very carefully at the proposals.
LORD MOLSON: My Lords, I did not go so far as to ask the Government to commit themselves to any financial expenditure on this; I asked merely that the Government would speedily announce their views regarding the recommendations that have been made by the Select Committee.
LORD MOWBRAY AND STOURTON: My Lords, I thank the noble Lord. I hope that perhaps we shall have examined the main parts of their advice within the next three to four months. Obviously, those which we consider necessary we shall wish to do everything possible to implement, within the financial limits at the time. I think that the noble Lord, Lord Molson used the words, "the art of the possible". I think that this is what we feel too.

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The noble Lord, Lord Champion, referred to the Greater London Development Report and the Inquiry under the chairmanship of Mr. Frank Layfield, Q.C., which was set up not only to examine objections to the Plan but also the Plan itself. This Inquiry has lasted two years, and during that period there have been important developments in thinking about traffic in London, which have been collected both in the revised draft of the transport section of the Plan put forward now by the G.L.C., and also in their discussion paper, to which we have referred. The Report of the Inquiry was submitted to my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for the Environment, as the noble Lord knows, last December, and he has announced that it will be published as soon as possible. I regret that at this stage I cannot comment on the merits of any of the solutions to London's traffic problems proposed either by the G.L.C. or by the various groups set up to oppose the Plan. But I must emphasise that we recognise the need for urgent decisions and that there will be no avoidable delay in reaching them. Public consultation is necessary but, as the noble Lord, Lord Champion, rightly said, we do not want excessive consultation. I do not suppose that when the G.L.C. originally started consulting they realised the delay that would be imposed upon them.
I was asked by the noble Lord, Lord Champion, whether the Government agree that the G.L.C.'s responsibilities vis-à-vis the boroughs need modifying. The simple answer is, No. We think that the present arrangements are working
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well, although inevitably there are minor disagreements between the G.L.C. and the boroughs. The large sums which are being invested in the public transport system should help to alleviate many of our problems in due course.
We have this evening discussed most of the problems in regard to traffic in London, but I must remind noble Lords that London is not the only city in the world where traffic congestion is a problem. Every major city has its own traffic problems, to a greater or lesser extent. This is true all over the world and much effort is being exerted on a search for solutions. This is one of the major problems of modern urban life. I would remind the House how the daily achievements of the police alleviate the problem; and I think it would be fair to say that in many ways London has given, and is continuing to give, a lead to the world in dealing with the problem of movement in cities. It only remains for me to repeat that Her Majesty's Government are open at all times to new ideas and would certainly welcome all noble Lords' suggestions, or a further debate on this problem. Finally, I should again like to thank my noble friend Lord Molson and other noble Lords for their most helpful and constructive speeches.

COSTS IN CRIMINAL CASES BILL [H.L.]
Reported from the Joint Committee on Consolidation Bills without amendment, and recommitted to a Committee of the Whole House.
  FREE PARDONS
  FREE PARDONS