§ 3.9 p.m.
§ Lord TanlawMy Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper. In so doing, I declare an interest as the founder chairman of the Astronomy and Space Environment Group.
The Question was as follows:
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether asteroid 2003/QQ47 will pose a threat to United Kingdom citizens on 21st March 2014 and why a potentially hazardous near Earth object of this size had not been identified sooner.
§ Lord Sainsbury of TurvilleMy Lords, calculations have shown that there will be no threat to United Kingdom citizens from asteroid 2003/QQ47 in 2014. The next potential impact of this asteroid will be in 2058 with a currently estimated threat of one—
§ Lord Sainsbury of TurvilleMy Lords, I have not given noble Lords the statistics yet. The next potential impact of this asteroid will he in 2058 with a currently estimated threat of one in 8,333,000. The reason a potentially hazardous near Earth object of that size was not identified sooner is that there is an enormous amount of space to look at.
§ Lord Sainsbury of TurvilleMy Lords, that is why the international space community is focusing on ways to improve detection.
§ Lord TanlawMy Lords, I thank the Minister for Science for his reply. I note that the "giggle" factor as regards this subject is still alive and well. Could this category of near Earth object be described as one of nature's missiles of mass destruction which could pose a far greater threat to British citizens than any material discovered under the sands of Iraq? Therefore, could not the funds presently allocated to the search for Saddam's elusive weapons of mass destruction be more gainfully employed by implementing the 14 recommendations listed in the task force report on potentially hazardous near Earth objects dated September 2000? Does the Minister agree that such a policy could reduce the number of false alarms, increase the lead time for national mitigation procedures to be established and allow an effective global asteroid deflection programme to be put in place? Will he say—
§ Lord TanlawMy Lords, noble Lords have had their fun laughing at this Question. What would be the minimum time required to launch a proven asteroid deflection programme? Could it be in place before 21st March 2014, supposing the threat of impact from asteroid 2003/QQ47 became a reality?
§ Lord Sainsbury of TurvilleMy Lords, this is a more interesting subject than occasionally is thought. There is clearly a risk. That is why I set up the task force in January 2000 to look at the whole issue. We are pursuing a policy of trying to get the matter on to the international agenda because it is clearly an international issue. Nevertheless, one must keep the issue in proportion. So far as we can make out there has never been anyone killed as yet by an asteroid. Dinosaurs may have been but not people. There has yet to be such an incident. The chances of that happening are still extremely remote—one in 800 million. That is a very small probability. The only probability that comes anywhere near that that I can find is one in 1.5 million, which is the risk of dying in one's bath. So these are very remote possibilities. We should not spend too much time worrying about them.
§ Lord Astor of HeverMy Lords, with regard to the Minister's first response, what is being done to predict more accurately the risks posed by long period comets where advanced warning may be as short as one year?
§ Lord Sainsbury of TurvilleMy Lords, the only way in which the matter can be dealt with is by an international effort. As I say, the UK has taken a lead both in the OECD workshop and in the United Nations Action Team. We hope that we shall be able to get the matter on to the agenda of the United Nations Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space and in that way have a system which will give us the earliest possible warning.
§ Lord RazzallMy Lords, while I recognise that this topic inevitably has an air of science fiction tinged with the humour so beloved of your Lordships, will the Minister please recognise that his task force to which he referred indicated in its last report that the risk of a near Earth object hitting the Earth was certain? Will the Minister please explain when the 14 recommendations of that task force will be implemented, and, if they have not been implemented, why not?
§ Lord Sainsbury of TurvilleMy Lords, as I said, there is a risk. It is a very small risk but nevertheless it is a very serious one because if such an incident happened, the implications would be very great. So far as I know, all the recommendations have been implemented although there is a question in some cases of finding the funds for the use of the particular telescopes which have been allocated. I shall meet with the task force in October to review the position and to consider the progress made.