Opinion Polls: General Elections (Hansard, 1 December 1994)

§ The Minister of State, Home Office (Baroness Blatch)
My Lords, we have no plans to do so.

§ Lord Orr-Ewing
My Lords, is my noble friend aware that at the previous election it was widely reported that every single one of the national opinion polls was wrong? They gave 3 or 7 per cent. leads to the Labour Party. In the event, the Conservative Party gained over a 7 per cent. lead. We were told at the time that an in-depth investigation would be held within two years to discover why these errors arose. I have not seen the result of that. Can we be told the result of that and whether therefore the opinion polls are likely to be more accurate next time?

§ Baroness Blatch
My Lords, I can confirm that the opinion polls in the period leading up to the previous election were not accurate. Research was commissioned by the Market Research Society and there were a number of findings. It was discovered that the way in which the data was collected was not very sound. It was also discovered that not everyone in the High Street who was asked his opinion gave his true opinion. It has to be said that one would think, reading the opinion polls at the moment, that the Tories were going to lose the next election.

Lord Bruce of Donington
My Lords, will the noble Baroness consider suggesting to her colleagues that an unofficial approach is made to the pollsters to cease publishing results over the next six weeks in order that we can have a Christmas free of any threats of Cabinet suicide?

§ Baroness Blatch
My Lords, what they publish must be a matter for the pollsters themselves.

§ Lord Ewing of Kirkford
My Lords, as well as getting rid of opinion polls, will the noble Minister also arrange to get rid of Peter Snow and his rather stupid swingometer which told us that if the result was repeated across the country the Labour Party would have 648 seats, the Conservatives one and the Monster Raving Loony Party two? While we are at it, can we get rid also of Peter Kellner and Ivor Crewe who are constantly telling us why people voted differently from the way they thought they should vote? Once we have got rid of all that, with the great help of the Prime 698 Minister and the Chief Whip in the other place we can then let the people of this country get on with getting rid of the Government.

§ Baroness Blatch
My Lords, I shall set aside the fantasizing of the noble Lord on these matters and simply say this remains a matter for the pollsters. If they continue to be unreliable, clearly they will be out of business. It is in their own interests that they at least adopt techniques that are more representative of the research that they are trying to produce. Further, bans have been tried before and we know there is an enormous amount of circumvention. For example, other kinds of predictions will take the place of opinion polls. Canvassing returns could become the predictor of elections. Most other countries sell newspapers from other nations. In France there is a ban which has operated for many years now; but other countries speculate in their absence.

§ The Earl of Kimberley
My Lords, has my noble friend ever heard of anyone in this House being polled, whether that be herself, myself, or any other Member of your Lordships' House?

§ Baroness Blatch
My Lords, I have just been reminded that we do not get a vote. We, together with lunatics and others, do not get a vote. I am rather depressed because I have never been polled and I should like to be from time to time.

§ Lord McIntosh of Haringey
My Lords, I declare an interest as a former chairman of the Market Research Society. Will the Minister be good enough to inform the noble Lord, Lord Orr-Ewing, that the Market Research Society has indeed published its detailed conclusions on the problems of polling in the previous election? I am sure he will be able to obtain a copy from the Library, or even buy a copy if he so wishes. My next question follows from what the Minister has just said about the alternative which, I am sure she will agree, is uninformed speculation which would be even worse than the inaccuracies which have been shown in certain polls.

§ Baroness Blatch
My Lords, the noble Lord makes an important point. It is very much in the interests of the Market Research Society that the scientific basis of the polls and the information collected is sound. Therefore, I commend the report for reading. Also, much of the speculative information which would take the place of the opinion polls if they were banned would be a great deal more distorting than the poll information. Therefore, we have an interest in making sure that the information is sound.
There is another point which is worth making. On certain issues it is important that from time to time those of us who are politicians, in either House of Parliament, are given some idea of how the policies of any sitting government are perceived by the general public.

§ Lord Orr-Ewing
My Lords, is my noble friend aware that I am a rare bird? I have only once been canvassed, in a local election, outside my constituency office. A lady came up to me and asked which way I would vote the following week. I said, "Tory". She 699 asked why. I said, "I am the local Member of Parliament". So she picked up her clipboard, said "You're not typical", and walked off.

§ Baroness Blatch
My Lords, I cannot follow that!