HL Deb 21 February 1991 vol 526 cc652-5

3.19 p.m.

Lord Orr-Ewing asked Her Majesty's Government:

Whether, in the light of Soviet military action in the Baltic states, the record Soviet production of battle tanks, and the Soviet circumvention of the CFE Treaty, they will reconsider any reduction in the strength of United Kingdom armed forces.

The Earl of Arran

My Lords, in view of the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe and the end of the cold war it remains our intention to move towards the new force structures outlined in Options for Change by the mid 1990s. However, in light of the risks that remain we are planning for cautious and measured change and shall ensure that the United Kingdom maintains a responsible and robust defence capability.

Lord Orr-Ewing

My Lords, I thank my noble friend for that reply. In view of the fact that there exists a great deal of anxiety can he assure the House that, until such time as the Soviets stop building up the strength of all three of their armed forces and start obeying the disarmament terms of the CFE treaty, it would be unwise to reduce our forces or the contribution we make to our NATO allies?

The Earl of Arran

My Lords, my noble friend is quite right about our anxieties regarding the Soviets' attitude towards the recently signed CFE treaty. The timetable for decisions on and implementation of change will depend upon many factors, including of course the outcome of the Gulf conflict, discussions with NATO allies and developments in the relationship with the Soviet Union. Once again I can reassure my noble friend that we shall continue to maintain a robust and flexible military capability as our insurance against the unexpected.

Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos

My Lords, can the noble Earl tell the House whether any significant progress was made in the recent CFE negotiations? He spoke of a robust defence capability. Can he say whether our estimated defence expenditure is discussed with our NATO allies to ensure that our contribution is a fair one in relation to their expenditure?

The Earl of Arran

My Lords, obviously there are discussions with our NATO allies concerning the future, the new balance of forces, costs and the ongoing situation.

Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos

My Lords, the noble Earl did not answer the first part of my question concerning CFE negotiations.

The Earl of Arran

My Lords, those negotiations are still going on. At the same time we are remonstrating with the Soviet Union about the situation regarding the CFE negotiations.

Lord Pym

My Lords, in view of the uncertainty and instability that is now so widespread throughout the Soviet Union and evident in other countries, and in view of the Gulf War and the international scene generally, can my noble friend on the Front Bench confirm that our armed forces will not be cut—it would be most unwise and imprudent to do so—before a longer and deeper assessment of our future defence needs has been undertaken with our allies?

The Earl of Arran

My Lords, in replying to an earlier question I believe that I have answered my noble friend's question. We shall maintain the defence structure necessary from the United Kingdom's point of view at all times and we shall proceed with great caution.

Lord Mayhew

My Lords, when considering the future level of our defence expenditure, will the noble Earl bear in mind that when the Government decided on fairly limited reductions in future years the Soviet Union was a unitary state and the Warsaw Pact was in being, whereas the Warsaw Pact is now being formally wound up and the Soviet Union is a mass of different and conflicting authorities?

The Earl of Arran

My Lords, the noble Lord is right to highlight those circumstances. As I have already said, we shall be proceeding with caution in the future.

The Earl of Onslow

My Lords, does my noble friend agree that on the last two occasions when our forces have been in action—in the Falklands and in Iraq—the events were not foreseen by anybody? Should we not be ultra cautious? Can my noble friend confirm that there were no contingency plans for the Falkland Islands? Can he also confirm that we had sold all our desert uniforms to the Iraqis, or somebody else, because we had not foreseen that we might have to participate in a desert war? Will my noble friend and the Defence Ministry please bear in mind that it is always the unforeseen that happens and never anything that is foreseen?

The Earl of Arran

My Lords, as regards the unexpected, as I have just mentioned, when Options for Change was announced by my right honourable friend the Secretary of State back in July of last year provision was made for a situation such as has now arisen in the Gulf.

Lord Bruce of Donington

My Lords, in view of the unanimity which has prevailed within the Security Council over the past few months, would it not be more constructive to regard the Soviet Union as a potential ally rather than as a perpetual enemy?

The Earl of Arran

My Lords, of course we regard the Soviet Union as an ally, but the situation in relation to the CFE treaty has not developed quite as we had expected. Strong negotiations are now in hand to see that those requirements are fully carried out.

Lord McColl of Dulwich

My Lords, does my noble friend agree that there is a great deal of anxiety about the proposed reduction of 40 per cent. in the Territorial Army? Does he further agree that medical reservists and other specialists have played a vital role in the Gulf conflict?

The Earl of Arran

My Lords, I must make it quite clear to my noble friend that despite rumours the situation regarding the Territorial Army has not been determined. It will be determined at the same time as the position of the regular Army.

Lord Elton

My Lords, while my noble friend and his right honourable friend are considering that matter will they once again bear in mind the very important social role which the Territorial Army is capable of performing on behalf of its members and their communities as well as its defence role?

The Earl of Arran

Yes, my Lords, most certainly. Its role is currently being considered. We shall never forget the superb job that it has done and the role it has played in our history.

Lord Orr-Ewing

My Lords, in view of the point raised by the noble Lord the Leader of the Opposition regarding cost saving, is it not a fact that if we restructure and reposition our forces over the next few years there will not be a cost saving but probably an overall increase in costs?

The Earl of Arran

My Lords, the dividends to be reaped from a decrease in the size of our armed forces will not be immediate. They will come through to the bottom line in the years that lie ahead.