Unemployment: Statistics (Hansard, 14 February 1991)

§ The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Employment (Viscount Ullswater)
My Lords, in January 1991 seasonally adjusted unemployment in the United Kingdom was 1,888,500.

§ Lord Dormand of Easington
My Lords, what kind of economic miracle has produced virtually 2 million unemployed after 12 years of power, particularly—and this is very important—as unemployment is increasing in every region of the country and in every kind of job? Above all, does not the disgraceful figure which I he Minister has given us today and the rate of increase demonstrate that this Government are composed of economic illiterates and that in trying to reduce inflation they are prepared to pay the price of thousands of jobs being sacrificed for many months to 214 come? Will he deny that there are now 70,000 fewer vacancies every month? If he does deny it, what is the figure?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, the noble Lord tries to view this economy as if it is not part of the global picture. All increases in unemployment are regrettable. No one should under-estimate the difficulties which unemployment can cause to the individuals concerned. However, it remains that the United Kingdom still has one of the lowest rates of unemployment in the European Community. In 1979 United Kingdom unemployment was broadly similar to the European Community average, but now it is considerably lower. The United Kingdom unemployment rate is lower than that of France, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Denmark. In recent months there have been rises in unemployment across the industrialised world in countries such as the United States and Italy and even steeper rises in Canada and Australia.

§ Lord Elliott of Morpeth
My Lords, is my noble friend aware that the noble Lord, Lord Dormand, and I have shared with others considerable concern over many years for the employment position in the North of England? Is he further aware that the unemployment rate on 31st January 1990 in the northern region was 9 per cent. and that the rate on 31st January this year was 9.6 per cent.? Does he agree that, taking into due account the recession which we know is temporary, this is not an unsatisfactory position?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, my noble friend illustrates an interesting position. However, I take issue with him on the figures. The figures that I have indicate that the percentage of those unemployed in the northern area is now only 9.2. It is true to say that the increase in the number of unemployed has been less in the North than it has been in the South.

§ Lord Stoddart of Swindon
My Lords, is the noble Viscount aware that unemployment in the southern region is steaming on? Is he further aware that the number of vacancies has fallen considerably? There are vacancies not only among industrial workers but among bank managers, accountants and the like? The problem is very serious indeed. Will the Government take urgent action to make real cuts in interest rates, not in months but now?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, the rates of unemployment in many of the areas suggested by the noble Lord have historically been very low. Therefore, sometimes a small increase in the number of unemployed in those areas may well result in a relatively large percentage increase in the unemployment rate, but the rate for those areas, again, remains very low. The number of vacancies at jobcentres in January was 143,000 which was an increase of 15,000 since December, although I would not say that that indicated a trend. Of course, only one-third of all vacancies are reported to jobcentres.

§ Lord Rochester
My Lords, as the unemployment rate looks like increasing still further, are the Government considering introducing any special measures such as temporary work schemes along the lines of the old community programme?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, we have a very full youth training programme. We are spending £750 million this coming year on ET which is still by any standards a considerable programme. However, it has become clear that training is not always the most appropriate solution to the problems faced by the long-term unemployed. Indeed, other forms of help including assistance with job search or securing an interview can often be much more effective.

§ Lord Dean of Beswick
My Lords, is the Minister aware that the global figure which he gave in his reply to my noble friend Lord Dormand of Easington shows an increase for last year of 112,000 job losses in the manufacturing sector and that that represents a 550 per cent. decline compared to the year before when the figure was only 20,000? Are we not, therefore, in a position where manufacturing industry in this country is being damaged almost beyond repair? Further, what hope is there of getting some social order, and being able to reduce some of the misery caused by increased unemployment, with a cut of a half per cent. in the bank rate?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, the noble Lord seems to want to write down the manufacturing industry. The current downturn comes after three years in which manufacturing output grew at an average rate of 5.5 per cent. and investment grew at 8.75 per cent. I agree with him that the number of jobs in manufacturing are at the same level as they were in about 1987. However, having said that, the amount of output has grown considerably, as I suggested, as indeed has investment.

§ Lord Dormand of Easington
My Lords, as the noble Lord, Lord Elliott, mentioned my name and the northern region, will the Minister comment upon the fact that, although the Government have had 12 years of unrivalled power, the unemployment rate of that area is the highest in the country outside of Northern Ireland?

§ Viscount Ullswater
Yes, my Lords; I accept that fact.

§ Lord Williams of Elvel
My Lords, we are always grateful when the noble Viscount can accept a fact from the Opposition and we congratulate him for so doing. However, is he aware that manufacturing output is now falling rather sharply and that it is only a matter of time before it falls to the level that it was in 1979? But, leaving aside that aspect which concerned the noble Viscount's previous answer, is he aware that the figure he gave us for the monthly unemployed is the seasonally adjusted one and that the gross figure is 1,959,747? That represents an increase of 109,366 over the month before. Can he tell us how that figure becomes seasonally adjusted down to a 46,000 increase?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, I can give the noble Lord an explanation. Between December and January unemployment would normally increase by about 65,000 because of seasonal influences, irrespective of trend. It is also often the case that the unadjusted figure falls while the seasonally adjusted figure rises. For example, in May of last year the unadjusted 216 unemployment figure fell by 48,000 while seasonally adjusted unemployment increased by 4,000, reflecting the seasonal influences that unemployment usually falls by about 52,000 between April and May.

§ Lord Williams of Elvel
My Lords, when did the Department of Employment last look at its seasonal adjustments?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, the figures which have been given on a seasonally adjusted basis have been consistent throughout the period.