Unemployment Figures (Hansard, 20 November 1990)

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, in the six months to October 1990, total unemployment in the United 620 Kingdom increased by an average of 16,000 per month while long-term unemployment fell by an average of 5,300 per month. The latter figure is on the unadjusted basis.

§ Lord Dormand of Easington
My Lords, do not those figures demonstrate more than anything else the fact that the economy is now well and truly in recession, in spite of what the Prime Minister, the Chancellor of the Exchequer and other senior members of the Government say? Therefore, will the Government confirm that after 11 years of Conservative government the total number of unemployed is now 1.7 million, which is 400,000 more than it was when Labour left office? Even more important, will he also confirm the fact that next year —I ask the Minister to deny this—it will rise to a figure of 2 million? What do the Government say is the cause of these disastrous figures?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, my right honour-able friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer has agreed that a slowdown is occurring in the economy. That is feeding through to unemployment: it is obviously sad for those people who lose their jobs. However, it is important to understand that the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is very much lower than the EC average; indeed, it is lower than every country in the EC, except Luxembourg and Portugal.
I confirm the figure of 1.7 million unemployed mentioned by the noble Lord. However, whether it will rise to approaching 2 million is pure speculation. I am quite certain that when inflation drops next year, the number of jobs will increase and that figure will not be reached.

§ Lord Molloy
My Lords, does the noble Viscount agree with the pronouncements of the Confederation of British Industry, which no one, especially the Government, should ignore, that unemployment and bankruptcy will increase and that the nation could well be in a parlous state within the next 12 months? I understand why the Government do not take too much cognisance of the CBI. Nevertheless, does the Minister not agree that it is a responsible organisation and that its views ought to be taken into consideration?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, the confederation expresses one view, to which the Government certainly pay attention. However, there are government achievements in the reduction of unemployment. Long-term unemployment, which is one of the most important measures, has now dropped to 507,000, the lowest level since the claimant count began in October 1980. The figure is nearly 850,000 lower than it was in April 1986. A fall of nearly 400,000 has been recorded in the past two years. That is a major achievement.

§ The Earl of Onslow
My Lords, is it not true that the percentage of our population in work is at its highest? Is it not also true that since the days of Joseph and the Pharaohs boom has been followed by bust and that will continue ad infinitum and to eternity? Minor hiccups must be expected under any government, even as good a government as this one.

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, the United Kingdom's jobs growth record is very impressive. The workforce in employment has been rising for over seven years. The latest comparable data shows that the rate of growth in employment has been greater than that of our major European partners and also of Japan. I can confirm that the UK proportion of the population of working age in employment of 71 per cent. is much higher than the EC average of 58 per cent.

§ Lord Mackie of Benshie
My Lords, is the noble Viscount aware that in the days of the Pharaohs the boom and bust was caused by the weather and not by the government?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, I am tempted to say that one should not believe everything that one reads. However, I am now at pains to know how to continue.

Lord Bruce of Donington
My Lords, is the noble Viscount aware that one of the achievements of the Government in the field of unemployment is to fiddle the unemployment figures which are now understated by 700,000?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, obviously the noble Lord feels rather passionately about the matter.

Lord Bruce of Donington
I do!

§ Viscount Ullswater
The figures have not been fiddled. They show those who are unemployed and who are actively seeking work. I should add that over one-third of a million unemployed leave the count every month; over one quarter of those who become unemployed leave within the first month; and 57 per cent. leave within the first three months.

§ Lord Gisborough
My Lords, does my noble friend agree that the rate of increase of wages has a lot to do with the number of unemployed, bearing in mind the remark made by the late leader of the Labour Party when he said that one man's pay rise was another man's job loss?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, the pressure on the economy is putting pressure on margins. If further pressure is put on them by an increase in wages, I am afraid that unemployment will occur.

§ Lord Glenamara
My Lords, has the noble Viscount seen the newspaper account this morning of a new report which shows that a large number of people in the workforce—some millions in fact—spend their whole working lives in work for a few months and then out of work for a few months? So far as I know, this is the first time that the problem has been highlighted. Does the noble Viscount have anything to say on the matter?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, I believe I answered that question to a certain extent. I said that about one-third of a million of unemployed people leave the count each month. This would indicate that, because the unemployment figures do not increase by that amount each month, many people are moving in and out of employment. As one would expect in a vibrant economy, people leave jobs and obtain other jobs just as quickly.

§ Baroness Turner of Camden
My Lords, does the noble Viscount agree that the employment situation has everything to do with the general economic situation and very little to do with policies of deregulation and absence of employee benefits?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, that is indeed a reflection of the current situation. A slowdown is taking place in the economy which is now reflected in the number of unemployed. However, as I said in answer to a previous question, the economy is in good shape and when inflation drops the number of jobs will rapidly increase.

§ Lord Donoughue
My Lords, I may not have heard clearly the Minister's reply to my noble friend Lord Dormand. Did he deny the statement that unemployment next year would reach 2 million?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, I said that that was purely speculation.

§ Lord Dormand of Easington
My Lords, if the Minister considers that 507,000 long-term unem-ployed are worth mentioning, that just goes to show how little compassion the Government have for the unemployed. Will he confirm that there are now 33 per cent. fewer vacancies than there were this time last year?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, I answered the last part of that question when replying to a previous question. The figures need to be put into perspective. I mentioned that there were 500,000 long-term unemployed. There are difficulties in obtaining work when one has been unemployed for over a year. The work done by the Department of Employment with its training programmes, which have reduced the number of long-term unemployed from the figure that I gave to 500,000, has been a success.

§ Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos
My Lords, is the Minister aware that the unemployment position in Wales is especially serious and is worsening from month to month? For example, in Laura Ashley, P. B. Electronics, Brymbo Steelworks, Inmos and other industries a large number of redundancies has been created. In those circumstances, how does the Minister justify the Government cutting the training budget by £300 million over the next two years?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, the alteration in training budget direction of spend is merited by the figures for the drop in the number of long-term unemployed that I have just given. If the noble Lord looks at the figure for youth training, he will see that that has increased by £38 million, and that is just as important.