§ 3.10 p.m.
§ Baroness Elliot of Harwood asked Her Majesty's Government:
§ In which months during the last three years unemployment in Scotland has fallen.
§ The Minister of State, Scottish Office (Lord Sanderson of Bowden)My Lords, the seasonally adjusted estimate of unemployment in Scotland has fallen in every month since April 1987. Scottish unemployment has fallen by more than 40 per cent. since the beginning of 1987.
§ Baroness Elliot of HarwoodMy Lords, in thanking the noble Lord very much for that Answer, may I congratulate him on the fact that as a Minister he has been able to help in these matters and has been so successful? Thank you.
§ Lord Carmichael of KelvingroveMy Lords, we are always glad to know that unemployment is falling. The Minister will be aware, however, that we have a long way to go. Unemployment in two Glasgow constituencies is as high as 19.9 per cent. and 18.3 per cent., whereas in certain parts of the South East it is 1.1 per cent. and is as low as 1 per cent. in midSussex. The Scottish figures do not include the fact that 770 steel jobs will be going soon. I wonder whether the Minister has any idea of what the knockon effect of that will be. More important still is the fact that in the past year the Scottish Office budget allocated to training was underspent because there were not enough young people to take it up. Can the noble Lord say what the Government intend to do to increase the confidence of young people in the training programme?
§ Lord Sanderson of BowdenMy Lords, the noble Lord asked about confidence. I turn to the Fraser of Allander report of 4th July which said:
Scotland's economy continues to show clear signs of outperforming that of the United Kingdom as a whole".From the point of view of confidence among young people, that must be some good news. I accept that 1007 some areas in Scotland show high levels of unemployment but I am equally aware that in areas such as Cumnock and Sanquhar the decrease in the rate of unemployment between 1987 and 1990, which was a very bad blackspot, has been 10.6 per cent.The noble Lord mentioned Lanarkshire and the problems arising from the proposed closure of the hot strip mill. We are aware of those problems. Unemployment in the Lanarkshire traveltowork area could rise by up to 0.7 per cent. as a result of the closure. The noble Lord should also be aware that Lanarkshire has shown a remarkable recovery. In the past three years the number of unemployed in Lanarkshire has fallen by 46 per cent. and the unemployment rate dropped from 18.3 per cent. to 10.2 per cent., which is indeed still too high. I hope the noble Lord will realise that the moves by my right honourable friend the Secretary of State and the Scottish Office to encourage further investment in Lanarkshire are ongoing.
§ Lord Stoddart of SwindonMy Lords, if interest rates remain at their present unacceptably high level, how long will it be before unemployment in Scotland and indeed elsewhere in the United Kingdom starts going up?
§ Lord Sanderson of BowdenMy Lords, the noble Lord touches a chord with me when he refers to interest rates. He realises of course that the major underlying problem is inflation. He may look back on May 1979 with rose tinted specs because at that time unemployment in Scotland was 140,000, which was a very low figure. But we were also experiencing inflation rising to 20 per cent. shortly afterwards—
§ Lord Sanderson of BowdenAll right, 22 per cent. But let us not forget that between March 1975 and March 1976 the inflation rate was more than 20 per cent. That was a very long time for industry to have to cope with the situation.
§ Lord Williams of ElvelMy Lords, we always enjoy it when the noble Lord quotes all kinds of exciting figures from the mid1970s. Perhaps we can return to the Question. Will the noble Lord confirm that unemployment in the United Kingdom as a whole is now on an upward trend as demonstrated by today's figures? Is he saying that unemployment in Scotland is still on a downward trend, thus bucking the United Kingdom trend? At what point does he think that unemployment in Scotland will start to turn up?
§ Lord Sanderson of BowdenMy Lords, the noble Lord may be a forecaster of great repute but I am not. All I can do is to take today's figures. The June figures for unemployment in Scotland still show a downward trend.