Soviet Defence Expenditure (Hansard, 23 May 1989)

§ The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Energy (Baroness Hooper)
My Lords, the Soviet Union has never published complete details of its defence expenditure, but we estimate it to be around 15 to 17 per cent. of its GDP. Mr. Gorbachev announced at the Guildhall on 7th April that Soviet defence expenditure would fall by more than 14 per cent. in 1989–90. But he provided no figures. So we have no baseline on which to calculate.

§ Lord Orr-Ewing
My Lords, is my noble friend aware that not only she but everyone in this House will be sad that there is still so little evidence of deeds being done to put into effect the honeyed words which have been spoken now for nearly four years? Is it right to suggest that 14 per cent. is a big decrease? It is one-seventh of the Soviet Union's present expenditure. So the 16 per cent. of the GNP which the Soviets currently spend on defence expenditure will be reduced to around 14 per cent. That compares with an average in NATO of 4 per cent. So the ratio of GNP spent on the Soviet forces is three-and-a-half times our own.

§ Baroness Hooper
Yes, my Lords. There is a difficulty in making calculations in that we do not have any specific figures on which to base our calculations. In his Guildhall speech on 7th April Mr. Gorbachev claimed that figures would be published shortly, and that the delay was caused by problems arising from the non-convertability of the rouble. We are hoping that some concrete figures will be published shortly.

§ Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos
My Lords, will the Minister go further and confirm that Mr. Gorbachev has been much more ready and open to publish precise figures, and that when he published his figures he conceded that the difference as regards defence expenditure was rather greater than his predecessors had said? Does the noble Baroness recall that yesterday she said that negotiations betwen NATO and the Warsaw Pact are progressing cordially? That was enouraging news. Will the Minister say whether there is any danger that that progress could be affected by the current diplomatic fracas?

§ Baroness Hooper
My Lords, as regards specific matters, NATO is calling for parity between the two alliances in particular categories of equipment such as tanks, artillery and armoured troop carriers within the whole of Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals. We are also proposing limits on the size of the armed forces of any individual country and on the numbers of forces which can be stationed outside national territories. The figures outlined by Mr. Gorbachev more recently on 11th May during the visit of the United States' Secretary of State, Mr. Baker, show a response in detail to NATO's proposals. I believe I mentioned those figures yesterday.
Regarding overall numbers of weapons systems in Europe, the Soviets have accepted our figures for tanks—that is, 20,000 per side—and armoured troop carriers at 28,000 per side. We still have to make progress on artillery because the Soviet suggestion of 24,600 per side does not tally with our figure of 16,500. However, I believe that in the cordial atmosphere in which the discussions are taking place in Vienna, we shall be able to make further progress.

§ Lord Mayhew
My Lords, does the noble Baroness agree that, as politicians go, Mr. Gorbachev's words have been followed by deeds to a remarkable extent as regards Afghanistan, elections, human rights Namibia, disarmament proposals and unilateral withdrawal of tanks from Eastern Germany? One after the other, his statements have borne fruit. Why then should we not take very seriously his statement that within a remarkably short period of time there will be a cut of one-seventh in defence expenditure?

§ Baroness Hooper
My Lords, we are taking that statement seriously. We know that the whole matter of defence spending in the Soviet Union is under review. However, as yet we have no independent corroboration of any figures that have been put forward.

§ Lord Boyd-Carpenter
My Lords, is there any evidence of any reduction in the Soviet Union's massive preparations for chemical and biological warfare?

§ Baroness Hooper
My Lords, again that is a matter in respect of which we do not have any independent corroboration of the details. On chemical weapons, we are active in our negotiations in Geneva for a comprehensive, verifiable worldwide ban. However, this is a complex issue, particularly in the area of verification.

§ Lord Taylor of Gryfe
My Lords, is taking a percentage of the GDP a proper comparison of military expenditure, since 14 per cent. of the GDP of the Soviet Union, because of its lower standard of living, represents a limited amount—though an extremely high one—whereas 6 per cent. of the GDP of the United States of America is a much greater sum?

§ Baroness Hooper
Yes, my Lords. That is one of our difficulties. As I said, until we have more specific 147 figures, which we are hopeful of getting, we are not able to make a more useful comparison.

Viscount St. Davids
My Lords, do my noble friend's figures include the very large sums spent in teaching every single school child military skills?

§ Baroness Hooper
My Lords, that is another of our difficulties. Unless we know the method of calculation used by both the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact countries we cannot comment.

§ Lord Stoddart of Swindon
My Lords, is it not much more pleasant to hear Soviet leaders boasting about arms cuts rather than arms increases? Would it not be better if, instead of denigrating their statements, we were to encourage many more of them?

§ Baroness Hooper
My Lords, I think that we have made it quite clear that we welcome any move to reduce both defence spending and arms production in the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries. That has been made very clear. I should like to confirm it further by emphasising that we welcome the advances that have been made.

§ Lord Orr-Ewing
My Lords, is my noble friend aware that last week we saw on our televisions and heard on our radios about tank reductions? What we were not told was that over the next two years the number of tanks will be reduced from 51,000 to 47,000 compared with a total of 16,500 among all the NATO countries. That shows the tremendous Soviet preponderance in tanks, and their production is continuing or even increasing, which is a rather alarming sign.

§ Baroness Hooper
Yes, my Lords. That is why we have been pressing for parity. The figures that I referred to outlined by Mr. Gorbachev on 11th May are a step in the right direction, but we envisage that reduction to those levels will take some six years or so. However, the Soviet acceptance, especially of the tank figures, is a major step forward and, indeed, a vindication of our approach in pressing for parity.

§ Lord Irving of Dartford
My Lords, following on from the question of the noble Lord, Lord Mayhew, in view of the extraordinary number of options that have been put forward by Mr. Gorbachev and been followed up, why are we so slow and so diffident about making similar concessions on our side to show that we accept the spirit of Mr. Gorbachev's approach and want to respond in similar vein?

§ Baroness Hooper
My Lords, figures such as those quoted by my noble friend Lord Orr-Ewing about the comparative numbers of offensive armaments speak for themselves. We are making cuts and, not only at the two meetings which are currently taking place in Vienna but also at the approaching NATO summit, we shall no doubt be looking at the matter again.

§ Baroness Strange
My Lords, does my noble friend agree that bears like honey? Does she not therefore agree also that it is the hope of us all that the honeyed words will become honeyed deeds?

§ Baroness Hooper
My Lords, I can only agree with that sentiment.

§ Lord Molloy
My Lords, is the noble Baroness prepared to accept that in the past few 100 years very many European nations—the French, the Dutch and the Germans—have endeavoured to invade this country but never the Russians, and indeed we have invaded their country without just cause? Does she agree that in the last war they were very reliable allies of the United Kingdom? Therefore, despite the evil regime which was created in 1918, now that Mr. Gorbachev is trying to introduce a spirit of freedom and democracy (which he cannot do overnight) ought not our Government to encourage and help him in every way possible?

§ Baroness Hooper
My Lords, I believe that the Government are taking every step available to them to show a more open spirit. I say only that in relation to arms reduction this is tempered with a little caution.

§ Lord Annan
My Lords, while sympathising with the noble Lord, Lord Orr-Ewing, in his wish to draw to our attention the great discrepancy in forces, is it not possible that the marshals of the Soviet army are at least as tenacious as our own generals and admirals in opposing large cuts in the forces under their command?

§ Baroness Hooper
My Lords, indeed, I am sure that they are very conservative in their approach.