Unemployment (Hansard, 19 December 1988)

§ The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Social Security (Lord Skelmersdale)
My Lords, since June 1987 unemployment has, on the consistent seasonally adjusted basis, fallen by 749,000. It is now at its lowest level for well over seven years.

§ Baroness Blatch
My Lords, I thank the Minister for that most encouraging reply. However, does he not agree that the problem at present for many employers is that of recruitment and that the challenge is to produce and improve the skills of those who are still unemployed?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
Yes, my Lords. My noble friend is quite right. That is why we are currently spending £3 billion a year on employment training as opposed to the miserable £750-odd million spent in 1979.

§ Lord Callaghan of Cardiff
Oh!

§ Lord Hatch of Lusby
My Lords, can the noble Lord tell the House what would be the figure of today's unemployment if calculated by the methods used in 1979?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, unfortunately I cannot. However, that is immaterial. Since figures are always given on a consistent coverage basis, past figures have to be reworked when changes are made. Therefore, I believe that absolute figures would be misleading. It is important that on that consistent basis the trend is very firmly down.

§ Lord Callaghan of Cardiff
My Lords, as the noble Lord refers back to 1979 perhaps he could tell us what was the figure of unemployment in 1979 and when he hopes to reduce the present Government's total to that level.

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, as the noble Lord, Lord Callaghan, well knows, we inherited a rising figure of unemployment.

Noble Lords
No, no!

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, since the noble Lord has asked for that figure, I can tell him that it was 1,089,000.

§ Lord Callaghan of Cardiff
My Lords. is the noble Lord aware that he is totally incorrect and that in fact he inherited a falling figure of unemployment? Is he not aware that the fall continued until VAT was raised to 18 per cent. in the autumn of 1979?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, I suspect that that is—

§ Lord Callaghan of Cardiff
Correct!

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, to say that that is "misleading" would be to use an unfortunate word. However, I believe that the noble Lord has a faulty memory. I am advised that although the figures were far lower in May 1979 than in July 1986, nonetheless the stoking-up in the economy generally caused those figures.

§ Lord Callaghan of Cardiff
My Lords, does the noble Lord think that the stoking-up before the 1987 election contributed to the present fall?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, the figure has continued to go down, as I pointed out. My original Answer shows that falls before the election were not temporary as some people claimed. The figure has been going down and, I believe, will continue to go down.

§ Baroness Gardner of Parkes
My Lords, is my noble friend aware that in the London area it is extremely difficult to recruit staff and that many employers are constantly advertising at great expense and are still unable to find anyone? What can be done to change the regional maldistribution which means high unemployment in some areas and such a shortage of skilled and unskilled people in London?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, there are three steps which can be taken: first, young people's training through the YTS scheme; secondly, employment training for those rather older people who may have been unemployed considerably longer; and thirdly, through employers making sure that the training that is required, both in service and out of service, is provided.

§ Lord Hooson
My Lords, when do the Government expect the unemployment figure to fall to the 1979 level?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, like their predecessors the Government do not make forecasts. However, there is no reason to suppose that sharp falls in unemployment will not continue, given the strength of our economy. However, your Lordships will note that the Government Actuary's recent report, on which the national insurance fund is based, estimated that unemployment will fall to 1.9 million in 1989–90.

§ Baroness Turner of Camden
My Lords, is it not a fact that even the Government's own figures show that as regards Scotland the figure of unemployment is 10.7 per cent., in the North it is 11.2 per cent., in Northern Ireland it is 15.9 per cent. and in the North- 1123 West it is 10 per cent.? Are those not quite unacceptable figures and what is being done about the problem?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, I suspect that the underlying suggestion of that supplementary question is that there is a North-South divide in this country.

§ Baroness Turner of Camden
My Lords, is there not?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
But, my Lords, there are many prosperous areas in the North; for example, parts of Cheshire, Cumbria and North Yorkshire and, indeed, part of the computer belt in Scotland. Equally, there are areas of high unemployment in the South. The North's share of unemployment has hardly changed since 1979, and over the past year unemployment rates have fallen most quickly in the West Midlands, the North-West and Wales.

§ Lord Elliott of Morpeth
My Lords, is my noble friend aware that in the northern region in November the unemployment rate was 11.3 per cent.? Although that is still too high, it is the lowest figure for years. Will my noble friend continue to encourage those policies which have brought about this highly desirable trend?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, yes, most certainly. I was not aware of the precise figure for the north-east of England but I am aware of a garage selling BMW cars in my noble friend's old constituency which over the past 18 months has consistently run out of cars on a month by month basis.

§ Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos
My Lords, is it not the case that under the Government's new scheme announced last week a man living in Glasgow or in, say, North Wales would be disqualified from benefit if he refused a job in London? Are not the Government reducing unemployment figures without reducing unemployment?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, the Leader of the Opposition is referring to the Social Security Bill which was introduced in another place last week, and we shall have a full opportunity to discuss that. However, I rely on the answer I gave to the noble Lord, Lord Hatch, that, as these figures are calculated on a consistent basis, if there is any change in the underlying entitlement rules to unemployment benefit the effect is worked back over the period of the figures and, therefore, one is interested in the trend at any one time based on consistent figures.

§ Lord Lloyd of Kilgerran
My Lords, as the Minister thought it necessary to refer to the expenditure of £750 million as a miserable figure, and as it is so helpful to compare like with like, can he say what is the equivalent, at today's figures, of that £750 million?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
No, my Lords, regretfully I cannot, but clearly £3 billion must be considerably more than £750 million in real terms.

Viscount St. Davids
My Lords, is it not perfectly clear that it is easy to reduce the unemployment figure to zero if it is done by the Labour Party method? That method is to give people useless or feather-bedding jobs. Was not the first rise in unemployment caused by that strange, alien phenomenon of featherbedding coming home to roost?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, I suspect that I am in danger of answering the wrong question in replying to the noble Viscount. However, it has been calculated that there are 700,000 unfilled jobs in the economy at present. I am sure that employers do not advertise those jobs if they do not feel that they are worthwhile jobs which they want filled.

§ Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos
My Lords, in replying to my question, the noble Lord referred again to the trend. However, has he seen the report of the Unemployment Unit—an independent research body—which stated last week that, if pre-1982 methods of calculation were still in use by the Government today, unemployment would stand at 2,813, 000? What does the Minister have to say about that?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, what I have to say about that is that the figures do not compare with like. If they were fully adjusted it would not matter whether they were adjusted from the earlier point forwards or from the current point backwards. One must look at the steepness of the trend.

§ Lord Glenamara
My Lords, is the noble Lord aware that those of us who come from the North-East find his remarks on the selling of BMW cars to be obscene? Incidentally, the constituency referred to is now held by Labour, as are most constituencies in the North-East. Will the noble Lord tell the House about unemployment in Sunderland, which is standing at 20 per cent. and the Government are now putting a further 10,000 people on the dole? What does the noble Lord have to say about that?

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, regional policy over all governments in recent years has been extremely variable, to say the least. Clearly, I do not enjoy having people out of work, for whatever reason, but my right honourable friends in the Department of Trade and Industry sought carefully to find buyers for those yards but regrettably failed. There was therefore no alternative but to close the yards.

§ Lord Hailsham of Saint Marylebone
My Lords, is it not true that this rather serious subject is more suited to debate than it is to oral question at Question Time?

§ Lord Glenamara
My Lords, is the noble Lord aware that last week the House was misled by the noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, who did not mention that the ferry ships made in Sunderland had been 1125 sold? Why was the House not told that? It changes the whole picture.

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, I really cannot answer that question because, although I have glanced through the Official Report of the debate, I was not in the House so I do not know what was the atmosphere in the House at the time; nor do I know what my noble friend had to say on that issue.

§ Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos
My Lords, is the noble Lord aware that we fully agree with the noble and learned Lord, Lord Hailsham, that we should have a debate? I hope that the noble Lord will arrange it through the usual channels and in Government time.

§ Lord Skelmersdale
My Lords, all these matters are for discussion between the usual channels, as the noble Lord the Leader of the Opposition knows full well. Since members of the usual channels are on the Front Benches opposing each other, I am sure that they will have heard the noble Lord's request.