HL Deb 07 March 1987 vol 487 cc125-7

3.3 p.m.

Lord Campbell of Croy

My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.

The Question was as follows:

To ask Her Majesty's Government whether any qualifications or other requirements are necessary before entry into the opinion poll industry.

Lord Beaverbrook

My Lords, there are no statutory qualifications or requirements necessary to carry out opinion polls, although market research firms employ statisticians to plan and interpret surveys. I understand that the industry does exercise self-regulation in the conduct of market research and opinion poll work.

Lord Campbell of Croy

My Lords, I am grateful to my noble friend for his reply. Considering the influence that these polls exert on the timing of certain constitutional events, is it not strange that anyone can start in this business without training or a licence? Does he foresee a day when instant sampling has been brought to such perfection that it will no longer be necessary for the country to go to the trouble and expense of holding general elections?

Lord Beaverbrook

My Lords, I suppose that one could say that the general election is the ultimate opinion poll.

The Earl of Lauderdale

My Lords, does my noble friend agree that polls which sample 1, 500 people are touching no more than 0.005 per cent. of the electorate?

Lord Beaverbrook

My Lords, I do not have a calculator with me but if my noble friend says so I am sure that he is correct.

Lord Gladwyn

My Lords, even at this late hour will the Government consider issuing some kind of order prohibiting the publishing of the results of polls during the fortnight preceding a general election?

Lord Beaverbrook

My Lords, no. The Government do not believe that there is a case for doing so. However, I should draw your Lordships' attention to the fact that a Bill is tomorrow being presented in another place entitled Political Opinion Polls (Regulation) Bill. It is being introduced by George Foulkes, MP.

Lord Mellish

My Lords, is the Minister aware that in 1970 the opinion polls on the Sunday before the general election showed Labour to be winning by 14 points? That is ominous, as that is the figure indicated today. The Minister will know his history. In 1970, on the Thursday, Labour were defeated. I do not know where the polls got that 14-point lead from. Perhaps he can explain it all to me.

Lord Beaverbrook

My Lords, I certainly cannot explain the figure to the noble Lord. However, I should point out that the polls at the 1983 general election predicted the outcome accurately.

Lord Underhill

My Lords, do we understand from the Minister's reply to the supplementary question that one should disregard existing polls, and that whenever the general election comes the public will not necessarily reflect them but might favour the Labour opposition?

Lord Beaverbrook

My Lords, I do not know whether the noble Lord would like to disregard the current polls. I suspect that he might wish to.

Lord Campbell of Croy

My Lords, is my noble friend aware that there have been complaints from the older established practitioners that newcomers in this field have not carried out polls thoroughly? For example, they have taken telephone polls and produced results without taking into account that part of the population that does not have a telephone.

Lord Beaverbrook

My Lords, if there are deficiencies in the sample—and telephone polls would only reflect opinion among people who have telephones—I do not believe that the reputable press in this country would wish to have anything but an accurate reflection of opinion.

Lord Williams of Elvel

My Lords, in the light of what the noble Lord, Lord Campbell of Croy, has said, what action can the Government take to ensure that these curiously biased opinion polls are not reported in the popular press? What opportunities are there for the Government to take action?

Lord Beaverbrook

My Lords, a biased opinion poll has been brought to my attention which was circulating somewhere in west London two or three weeks back. I believe that the responsible elements of the press would not wish to publish such blatantly wrong information. I do not believe that they would ultimately sell many newspapers if they continued to do so.

Lord Williams of Elvel

My Lords, would the noble Lord like to define further what he means by the "responsible" press?

Lord Beaverbrook

My Lords, that is becoming increasingly difficult these days.