§ 2.40 p.m.
§ Lord Hatch of LusbyMy Lords. I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.
§ The Question was as follows:
§ To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they agree with the forecast of the Confederation of British Industry that economic progress is slowing down and that an average of 5,000 jobs a month will be lost in the manufacturing industry this year.
§ The Minister of State for Defence Support (Lord Trefgarne)My Lords, the noble Lord may not have seen the CBI's most recent survey, which indicates much improved optimism about output and exports in the manufacturing sector.
§ Lord Hatch of LusbyMy Lords, with respect, I regret that the Secretary of State has not answered this Question. It is based on one last week which he also did not answer. However, I have seen the new report of the CBI. I was asking about the previous report, which, so far as concerns manufacturing industry, is not contradicted by the new report. Is the Minister saying that he and the Government know better than the CBI, the TUC, the All-Party Select Committee on Employment, and the Labour Party, all of which have asked for Government intervention to prevent this bleeding of our real jobs in manufacturing at the rate of 5,000 a month?
§ Lord TrefgarneMy Lords, yes, I think we certainly know better than the Labour Party, if the noble Lord will forgive me for saying so. However, perhaps I can do no better than to quote Sir Terence Beckett, who is 937 of course the Director-General of the CBI, when he said recently:
Business is clearly picking up. Order books are much better and output should increase significantly over the next four months. It is vital that industry takes advantage of this tremendous opportunity in export markets.
§ The Earl of LauderdaleMy Lords, perhaps my noble friend can direct the attention of the Opposition, and the noble Lord, Lord Hatch, in particular, to the speech of Mr. Gorbachev, who is reported on today's news tape to have said that the state subsidies to industry should be brought to an end and the future lies with private enterprise.
§ Lord TrefgarneMy Lords, I most strongly agree.
§ Lord BlytonMy Lords, is the Minister aware that particularly in my area we are becoming sick and tired of the sunshine talk of a light at the end of the economic tunnel? Is he aware that in my area of South Tyneside 27 per cent. are unemployed—and that is on the cooked figures of the Government in relation to total unemployment? Will the Government stop this sunshine talk and give us the facts? We cannot see a light at the end of this economic tunnel.
§ Lord TrefgarneMy Lords, I most readily agree that overall the level of unemployment is much too high and in some parts of the country tragically high. But the fact remains that in recent months a great number of new jobs have been created and industrial output, which is perhaps the key to the solution of these problems, is also rising quite effectively.
§ Lord StallardMy Lords, will the Minister not accept that if industrial output is the key then the wholesale destruction of our manufacturing industry that we see all around us and that we certainly see on news bulletins and documentaries is not the way to go about improving the industrial scene? Will he not show some concern about the devastation to our manufacuring industry and at least give us some inkling that the Government have some constructive proposals to halt this destruction?
§ Lord TrefgarneMy Lords, the way to restore our fortunes in this area is to ensure that modern and new industries are given every possible encouragement to grow. The solution does not lie in propping up old and inefficient industries.
§ Lord Stoddart of SwindonMy Lords, the noble Lord of course respects the CBI, but is he aware that the CBI has also suggested to the Government that in the forthcoming Budget they should make more money available directly for creating new jobs rather than for funding tax cuts? Are the Government going to take that into consideration?
§ Lord TrefgarneMy Lords, the noble Lord well knows that I cannot anticipate what the Budget will contain.
§ Lord Wells-PestellMy Lords, if the CBI has changed its opinion with regard to the 5,000 job losses a month figure, what is the new figure?
§ Lord TrefgarneMy Lords, I do not think that I said the CBI had changed its view in the way that the noble Lord suggests. What I have reported is the latest outcome of the CBI's findings. As the noble Lord may know, the CBI conducts its inquiries on a regular basis and updates them in between the regular surveys. The words that I gave related to its latest update.
§ Lord Hatch of LusbyMy Lords, is it not a fact that the CBI has not changed its forecast for the loss of 5,000 manufacturing jobs a month during this year? Is it not also the case that in the updating just last week the CBI forecast for production is still lower than it was last year? Is it not time that the Government stopped talking about employment being created by an increase in productivity and in the private sector when they have been singing the same song for seven years and yet during that seven years unemployment has been continually rising and is rising today?
§ Lord TrefgarneMy Lords, I think that the noble Lord tends to focus upon the facts that he thinks support his case. But the fact is that output rose by 4 per cent. in 1984 and 3 per cent. in 1985. It has now risen by 11 per cent. since June 1983 and uninterruptedly, indeed, since 1981. Investment in 1984 rose by 14.5 per cent.; profitability in 1984 was up by 6.3 per cent.—and I could go on.
§ Lord Hatch of LusbyMy Lords, will the noble Lord include in that figure the rise in unemployment in the same dates?
§ Lord TrefgarneMy Lords, I forgot to mention the rise in productivity, which is 33 per cent. since 1980.
§ Lord GlenamaraMy Lords, has the noble Lord's attention been drawn to the fact that, very near to the area from which my noble friend Lord Blyton comes, the National Coal Board has just decided to close the last remaining pit in Blyth, Northumberland, which will throw a few more hundred men into unemployment? And they decided to do this in spite of the finding of the independent, objective inquiry that it should be kept open. What has the noble Lord to say about that?
§ Lord TrefgarneMy Lords, I have already said in answer to the noble Lord, Lord Blyton, how much I regret the figures of unemployment, not only across the nation in general but specifically in the area to which both noble Lords have referred. That is why it is necessary for us to regenerate modern industries that can take on people who are looking for work in a productive and satisfactory way.
§ Lord GlenamaraMy Lords, with respect to what the noble Lord has said, I quoted an example where the Government can do something quite specific at the present time. Will they do it?
§ Lord TrefgarneMy Lords, I do not have in front of me the position with regard to the particular mine to which the noble Lord referred. Of course, it is necessary that whatever activity they are involved in is done in an effective and cost-effective way.
§ Lord Cledwyn of PenrhosMy Lords, will the noble Lord be good enough to translate into terms of employment the statistics that he gave two answers ago? How many jobs in fact will be created as a result of the actions of the Government to which he referred?
§ Lord TrefgarneMy Lords, about 700,000 jobs have been created in the last year or so and the CBI forecast an overall increase of about 200,000 jobs in each of the years 1986 and 1987.