The Nuclear Winter Hypothesis (Hansard, 26 June 1985)

§ Lord Jenkins of Putney
My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.

§ Baroness Cox
My Lords, the Government are aware that a nuclear winter is one hypothetical 732 outcome of a nuclear attack, but research has indicated that the situation is very complex. We are therefore awaiting the outcome of two major research studies before considering appropriate action. The comments which have been circulated, to which the noble Lord, Lord Jenkins, refers, were distributed by the Home Office civil defence adviser in response to requests from emergency planning staff for information to balance the wide publicity which had already been given by proponents of the nuclear winter theory.

§ Lord Jenkins of Putney
My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Baroness for that informative and accurate Answer. Would she not agree, on reflection, that to circulate a comment on a hypothesis without circulating the hypothesis itself is perhaps not the correct way to proceed? Will she therefore give this matter a little further consideration?

§ Baroness Cox
My Lords, as I have already said, the Home Office civil defence adviser circulated those comments in response to requests received in view of a great deal of publicity which had been given to the nuclear winter theory, and they formed a counter-balance, as it were, to the wider publicity that that theory had already obtained.

§ Lord Orr-Ewing
My Lords, is my noble friend aware that Dr. Turco and his group, who forecast a nuclear freeze, are very keen on promoting unilateral disarmament for other political causes? Two famous Soviet scientists have forecast, not that the temperature would go down but that the temperature would go up by 25 degrees. Does my noble friend recall that 85 years ago scientists and mathematicians were forecasting that a heavier than air machine would never under any circumstances fly? Would it not therefore be better to await the results of this deep study which is now being undertaken before jumping to unfair and alarming conclusions?

§ Baroness Cox
My Lords, I am grateful to my noble friend for those comments. There is indeed a very complex range of proposals and hypotheses which are currently being considered, and one of them is the so-called "nuclear greenhouse" theory, suggesting that temperatures might rise rather than drop. I should point out that the two major studies which are being conducted are of the first importance. One is by the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment, which is part of the International Council of Scientific Unions. The results of that study are expected later this year. The other research is sponsored by the United States Government, and an interim report of that is available in your Lordships' Library. However, I think these findings highlight the need to wait before considering the policy implications of any hypothesis.

§ Lord Mishcon
My Lords, without making a long speech and without making any comments at Question Time, may I ask the noble Baroness what justification in logic there can be for printing comments without printing that upon which the comments are made?

§ Baroness Cox
My Lords, in reply to the noble Lord, Lord Mishcon, the hypothesis, which had already been widely distributed, contained its own premises. The comments were an attempt to put that hypothesis, the assumptions and the alleged results of a nuclear winter into a proper context.

The Earl of Halsbury
My Lords, could the noble Baroness elucidate a little further? What we are waiting on is the opinion of disinterested meteorologists who are unconcerned with political propaganda on one side or another. In the event of our being in for a nuclear summer rather than a nuclear winter, has the noble Baroness any information as to whether it might be worse than the present one?

§ Baroness Cox
My Lords, I can hardly imagine a summer which would be worse than the present one.

§ Lord Zuckerman
My Lords, is the noble Lord who put this very important Question aware that there are two bodies—both of which are international and apolitical—which are considering this matter and are due to report? There will not be anybody able to say that these people are in favour of unilateral, multilateral, more or less disarmament. One is the International Council of Scientific Unions, on which we are represented through the Royal Society, which has commissioned a report through the organisation concerned with problems of the environment. It will be reporting in Washington in late September, and then in Munich internationally in October. There will be a two-volume report which ought to satisfy everybody.

§ Baroness Cox
My Lords, perhaps I may assure the noble Lord that the Government will take account of all serious research which has a bearing on this matter.

§ Lord Jenkins of Putney
My Lords, in view of the highly reinforced nature of the already adequate reply of the noble Baroness, I think it would be appropriate to leave this matter, at least for the time being, for a few days if perhaps not a little longer.