HL Deb 17 April 1985 vol 462 cc693-6

2.42 p.m.

Lord Dean of Beswick

My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.

The Question was as follows:

To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they are satisfied that the criteria being used at present for assessing the number of people unemployed enable that number to be correctly assessed.

The Minister without Portfolio (Lord Young of Graffham)

My Lords, while the monthly unemployment count necessarily reflects the administrative system for paying unemployment benefits, we are satisfied that the figures are a reasonable reflection of the level of unemployment, as shown by other less frequent estimates from household surveys of the number of unemployed people seeking work. The 1983 Labour Force Survey was in broad agreement with the monthly count. Results for 1984 will be published in the next few months.

Lord Dean of Beswick

My Lords, I am grateful to the Minister for that reply. Will he not agree that various independent outside bodies come to the definite conclusion that the Government are understating the case? Will he confirm that, if the Government were using the same criteria as those they used when they took office, we would be talking in terms of nearly 33/4 million people? Therefore, why are the Government indulging in this exercise and not presenting the real facts?

Lord Young of Graffham

My Lords, inflation still looms in the land but these days it is confined only to those bodies which reinterpret the unemployment statistics to their own benefit. At this point I think that it would be appropriate to remind your Lordships that the number of people in work in the year to December increased by 343,000: that the number of people in work increased by 613,000 in the 21 months to December 1984; and that in the year to December employment in services increased by 244,000. Nothing demonstrates better that the Government's policies are working than a continued and steady increase in the number of people in employment.

Lord Dean of Beswick

My Lords, is the Minister aware of the article published in the Sunday Times on 7th April by Mr. David Lipsey, the economics editor? That says that the figures being produced by the Secretary of State and which the Minister has just used are a complete misrepresentation of the situation to the point where Mr. Lipsey says: on this basis, the minister seems unlikely to be invited to take up a fellowship of the Royal Statistical Society". When can we expect the Government to tell the truth on this matter?

Lord Young of Graffham

My Lords, in the past few months one of the benefits of my particular occupation has been to read week after week and month after month different interpretations—or, dare I say, misinterpretations—of the economic facts of life that appear every week and every weekend in our papers. The figures that we use are those for the number of people receiving benefit. They include many people who would not otherwise be regarded as being unemployed, and they exclude some other people who would otherwise regard themselves as being unemployed. Taken together, they reflect the best possible estimate of the number.

Lord Ross of Marnock

My Lords, I should like to return to the original Question. There have been considerable changes in assessment for unemployment registration. For the benefit of the House, will the Minister list in the Official Report the changes that have taken place over the past five years?

Lord Young of Graffham

My Lords, the changes that have taken place in the unemployment count, which I believe changed in November 1983—although it may have been November 1982—have not been continued in the statistics. I shall list in the Official Report what information we have.

Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos

My Lords, although we are extremely glad to hear the information given by the Minister of the increased number of people at work, perhaps he can clarify one point. Is it not the case that, out of the total number of additional jobs he gave. over 300,000 are part-time jobs for women?

Lord Young of Graffham

My Lords, I should have hoped that each and every Member of your Lordships' House would rejoice at the opportunities that are arising of part-time work for women. But again I think that I should remind your Lordships that the employed labour force in the United Kingdom has risen by 21/2 per cent. since March 1983. It has risen by 1 per cent. in Japan, and it has actually fallen in Germany. Occasionally we should look beyond the waters.

Lord Diamond

My Lords, as regards part-time workers, can the Minister give the number of hours per day employed which constitute an additional person in terms of his figure of the addition to the number of employed people in the country?

Lord Young of Graffham

My Lords, I shall write to the noble Lord giving those particular figures.

The Earl of Halsbury

My Lords, will the Minister agree that the complexities of statistical truth should be authenticated and presented in such a way that they are not tools in the hands of party political manoeuvring?

Lord Young of Graffham

My Lords, I would completely agree with the noble Earl's statement. The statements which we announce each month are indeed the count of those receiving unemployment benefit, and that is an unequivocal and unshakeable figure, and one upon which I believe your Lordships' House would do well to continue to rely.

Lord Maude of Stratford-upon-Avon

My Lords, first, through his department can my noble friend do something to counter the continually repeated claim of Opposition speakers on radio and television that there are 4 million unemployed people in this country? Secondly, will he realise that it is common knowledge that the number of involuntarily unemployed people genuinely seeking work is considerably below the published figure of unemployed people?

Lord Young of Graffham

My Lords, I should like to thank my noble friend for his question; but, alas‡ I am a Minister without a portfolio and even if I had one, I think I could do little to prevent those who so desire exaggerating the bad news and minimising the good. The registered number of unemployed stands at the figure that we give. Within that figure it is sensible to assume that all are seeking work; but your Lordships will have to make up your minds for yourselves.

Lord Dean of Beswick

My Lords, is the Minister aware that I am not someone who is invited to go on television or radio, and that I have never used the term 4 million unemployed? However, I am saying to the Minister that the figures being presented do not in any way convey the truth of the situation. When will the Government give us the truth?

Lord Young of Graffham

My Lords, for once I am in total agreement with the noble Lord. The figures that we present on the unemployment count do not represent the truth of the situation. The truth of the situation is represented by the figures that I endeavoured to give in my supplementary answer which show that the number of people in employment is steadily and surely rising. That is the figure on which we should concentrate. I assume and expect that figure to continue to rise until the number of unemployed starts to diminish.

Lord Hatch of Lusby

My Lords, the noble Lord has given a number of statistics. In order to make those statistics correct and to put them in context will he give some other statistics beside them? When he says that the number of people employed is increasing will he set beside that the increase in the workforce at the same time and the increase in the unemployed at the same time so that the whole picture may be seen and not just the number of people who are employed?

Lord Young of Graffham

My Lords, the point I was endeavouring to make in answering these questions was simply that the total workforce of the United Kingdom is increasing, and so is the number of people in employment. At the present time the rate of increase in the workforce is such that the number of unemployed is not diminishing, but I expect that it soon will. Perhaps I may make this point. We have one of the highest proportions of populations of working age in employment in Europe. Our figure is 65 per cent.; in France and Germany the figure is 61 per cent., and in the OECD as a whole it is 59 per cent. We keep nearly two-thirds of all our people of a workable age in employment.

Baroness Gaitskell

My Lords, are we right in trying to minimise the number of people who are now unemployed in this country? If we are, we are not doing a good job.

Lord Young of Graffham

My Lords, we would not be right in trying to minimise the number of people unemployed in this country, but nor would we be doing a good job if we did not draw attention time and time again to the sheer economic fact of life that Government policies are working.

Following is the information referred to:

CHANGES IN THE COVERAGE OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT COUNT

1. The effect of changing from registrants to claimants in October 1982.

2. The effect of the 1983 Budget measures which meant that since April 1983 certain men aged over 60 no longer needed to sign on in order to receive national insurance credits or supplementary allowances at the higher long term rate.