HL Deb 16 April 1985 vol 462 cc597-8
Lord Jenkins of Putney

My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.

The Question was as follows:

To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they are aware that the British Medical Association has examined the projections used by Scientists Against Nuclear Arms (SANA) and has stated that they give a more realistic estimate of the effect of nuclear weapons than those used by the Home Office; and whether their forthcoming circular on Civil Defence will use the SANA projections.

The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Home Office (Lord Glenarthur)

My Lords, we are aware of the SANA projections and the British Medical Association's acceptance of them. The figures are derived from American casualty models which, in our view, are not wholly appropriate to the United Kingdom.

Lord Jenkins of Putney

My Lords, does not the noble Lord agree that even though these projections may not be entirely in accordance with those used by the Home Office, they are serious enough for the Home Office to take them into consideration in their forthcoming circular? Will they look at this whole question again? I think the noble Lord may discover that in London, for example, in the event of a severe nuclear attack the survival rate would be in the order of 10 per cent. If that is so, will the Government look again at their whole defence policy?

Lord Glenarthur

My Lords, the Government's policy of deterrence aims to prevent any attack of the kind which the noble Lord envisages happening in any case. That is the policy upon which we rest.

Lord Ennals

My Lords, does the noble Lord the Minister accept that the BMA concluded that the Home Office figures very significantly under-estimated the effect of blast, heat and radiation on the population in the event of a nuclear explosion? In view of the talks that have taken place between the BMA and the department, can the noble Lord enlighten us as to whether the department now has accepted the position of the BMA, or can he tell us where the talks now stand?

Lord Glenarthur

My Lords, the United States' calculations applied to rather different criteria. They applied to an unwarned population, mostly located in houses of light construction. The original Home Office figures applied to a warned population—that is a significant difference—in United Kingdom houses of heavier construction. So far as the review of blast damage, and the effects of blast is concerned, it is a substantial review; it necessarily takes a long time to complete.

Lord Jenkins of Putney

My Lords, in view of the fact that the Government have no shelter or evacuation policy, what is the purpose of warning the population? In replying to that question will the noble Lord say when his new circular on Civil Defence is to be expected?

Lord Glenarthur

My Lords, the circular will come out shortly. So far as figures for casualties are concerned, the noble Lord will be aware, and I am sure that many other noble Lords will support the fact, that many millions will survive any nuclear attack, and our policy is designed to prevent that kind of attack or any other happening.