Statistics: Basis of Comparisons (Hansard, 5 March 1984)

§ Lord Diamond
My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.

§ The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (Lord Cockfield)
My Lords, the Government presents information in whatever form they think is appropriate in the circumstances. We are, however, committed to drawing up and presenting public expenditure plans primarily in cash.

§ Lord Diamond
My Lords, may I thank the noble Lord the Minister for the clear enunciation of his reply? That is about as far as I can go. Is the noble Lord aware that I was hoping very much that this House would take the same view as the other place; namely, that on nearly every occasion information of this kind, comparisons, would be given in constant prices and real terms rather than in figures, as measured by a shrinking yardstick, which are not at all meaningful? Does the noble Lord feel that Members of this House should be treated as second-rate citizens in this respect? Is the noble Lord aware that there have been at least two occasions when figures given at current prices have led to the conclusion "more" when at real prices the answer would have been "less"? Is that not unfortunate and likely to be misleading?

§ Lord Cockfield
My Lords, whenever we are asked for information in a particular form we always endeavour to supply it in the form in which it is asked. In our day-to-day lives we conduct our transactions in terms of money of the day. Wages and salaries are paid in terms of money of the day, and goods and services are bought and sold in terms of money of the day. It is perfectly right and proper, therefore, that Government expenditure should be planned on the same thesis. Wherever comparisons are made there is sometimes merit, in statistical terms, in expressing comparisons also in terms of constant prices, and this is in fact extensively done.
May I draw the noble Lord's attention to Table 1.14 in the current White Paper on public expenditure, which expresses public expenditure in cost terms; to Table 1.13, which shows public sector capital spending, both in cash terms and in cost terms; and to Table 3.8 in last year's Budget red book, which shows constant price forecasts of expenditure, imports and gross domestic products, and so on, ad infinitum?

Lord Oram
My Lords, may I ask the noble Lord: are not overseas aid statistics a particular example of the problem to which the noble Lord, Lord Diamond, has called the attention of the House? For example, in the recent information on overseas aid for 1982, figures are given for three years at current prices, apparently, without any allowance for the inflation factor. Since Government spokesmen often claim generosity in this field, is it not important to have a realistic rather than an inflated view of the situation?

§ Lord Cockfield
My Lords, may I draw the noble Lord's attention to Table 1.14 in the public expenditure White Paper, which gives the information precisely in the form in which he is requesting it?

Lord Oram
My Lords, since this is a publication issued by the Overseas Development Administration about its work, is it not important that the figures in this publication should also be correct in this respect?

§ Lord Cockfield
My Lords, the suggestion by the noble Lord that information is not available is not correct. It is set out perfectly clearly in the public 3 expenditure White Paper, and the table was inserted specifically for that purpose. Overseas aid is shown as a separate and distinct item in that connection. So far as concerns the publication to which the noble Lord has referred. I will certainly look into the matter.

Lord Morris
My Lords, is my noble friend aware that Her Majesty's Government's views should be greatly welcomed in that it demonstrates that they do not make the presumption or take the position that the economy will be for ever inflated?

§ Lord Cockfield
My Lords, the point raised by my noble friend is an important one.

§ Lord Molloy
My Lords, would the Minister not agree that when, some time ago, the Government changed the system for assessing the rise in the cost of living the intention was that it should be to the advantage of the Government but it did not turn out that way; there was much concern in the City and among chambers of commerce at this particular system, which was then described as being able to "massage the figures" to the advantage of the Government and not give a true picture in the interests of businessmen who desired it?

§ Lord Cockfield
My Lords, I do not recognise any of the allegations that the noble Lord makes, but that is perhaps not surprising.

§ Lord Diamond
My Lords, would the noble Lord be willing to reconsider this matter? There is no party issue involved. Is it not the case that public expenditure White Papers used to contain all the figures in both cash and constant prices? Is there any reason why perhaps two or three tables out of the totality should not be given in constant prices as well as in current ones, and all the rest only in cash terms?

§ Lord Cockfield
My Lords, we have, in fact, got there before the noble Lord, because this year's public expenditure White Paper contains two such tables for which he asks.

§ Lord Molloy
My Lords, in so far as the Minister denied what had happened, would he help me in putting down an Unstarred Question so that we can have a thorough debate on this subject, not in the interests of one party or the other but simply in the interests of honesty?

§ Lord Cockfield
My Lords, the figures are set down fully and completely. The noble Lord will find a vast amount of information in all the Government's statistical returns. I hesitated to bore your Lordships by reading out dozens of examples which I have brought along with me. So far as debates are concerned, that is a matter for the usual channels and not for me.