Unemployment Figures (Hansard, 18 June 1984)

§ Lord Dean of Beswick
My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.

The Minister of State, Privy Council Office, and Minister for the Arts (The Earl of Gowrie)
My Lords, the seasonally adjusted level of unemployment increased by 18,000 to 3,029.000 in May, following a fall of 1,000 in April and a rise of 7,000 in March. These increases must be considered in the context of recent productivity improvements, demographic factors and the encouraging growth in employment in the last nine months of 1983.

§ Lord Dean of Beswick
My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Earl for that reply, but is it not a fact that one conclusion transcends any other in these figures—namely, that the plight of the long-term unemployed continues to increase both in depth and numbers? Is it not a fact that, apart from the young people employed in youth employment training schemes, anybody at present being made unemployed has a far greater chance of joining those long-term unemployed figures than was the case 12 months ago?

The Earl of Gowrie
My Lords, I am not sure whether the latter conclusion could be drawn, particularly as we do have an encouraging sign in the very significant increase in employment. About 200,000 more people are now likely to be in jobs this year than last year. The labour market is also growing. However, I agree strongly that the plight of the long-term 9 unemployed, now over one million, is very serious indeed, and of course the big structural and technical changes in industry are largely responsible for this.

§ Lord Kilmarnock
My Lords, when the noble Earl talks about the growth of employment, would be not agree that in fact there has been a growth in the labour force and that therefore the greater employment is not necessarily going to narrow the gap between those in employment and those who are unemployed?

The Earl of Gowrie
My Lords, I am very grateful the the noble Lord. That was my very point: it is certainly gratifying and encouraging that there has been a growth in the numbers of people working as well as in the growth of the labour force.

§ Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos
My Lords, would the noble Earl not agree that the quarterly report of the Manpower Services Commission, which was published over the last few days, reveals some extremely disturbing figures? In addition to the figure he has just quoted of over a million people out of work for over 12 months, is it not the case that the number of those who are employed in manufacturing jobs is reduced and that full-time employment is continuing to fall seriously? Is he aware that what the whole House wants to know is what specific steps the Government are proposing to take to help? Are they proposing now to invest in capital schemes so as to provide work in road building, bridge building, school building and hospital building, which many economists say would not necessarily affect the Government's policy with regard to inflation? Is it not high time that the Government took some concrete steps to help these people, especially the young school-leavers, who are out of work?

The Earl of Gowrie
My Lords, on help for young school-leavers, as the House will be aware from recent debates and from some of the answers that I have given lately, the Government are spending nearly £2.000 million in total this year. We are currently bringing direct help through special schemes to nearly three-quarters of a million young people and we are seeing some encouraging signs that this policy is bearing fruit. On the point about capital projects, as I know from my experience in Northern Ireland, there is no evidence whatsoever that intensive expenditure on capital projects brings about a sustained growth in employment.

§ Lord Diamond
My Lords, will the noble Earl be good enough to give us the Government's estimate of what the number to be added on to the figures he gave in his first answer is in respect of those available for work, in addition to those whom he has already described? If he does not have that estimate, can he tell us when these figures will be available?

The Earl of Gowrie
My Lords, I should have to take advice on both of those points and could then, either in correspondence or by a separate Question, answer the noble Lord. But I could add—which might be helpful—that there is also an increase in the seasonally adjusted level of vacancies. We have had the third 10 successive monthly rise and the level in May was no less than 15 per cent. above the May 1983 position. So that is another encouraging factor.

Lord Bruce of Donington
My Lords, is the noble Earl aware that the figures he gave in regard to the increase in employment are statistically suspect; that they have been the subject of some adjustment that remains still to be detailed and explained? Is he aware that, of the total unemployed at this time, over 1,400,000 have been out of work for over a year, that, of that total, 310,000 have been out of work for over three years and that that total of 1,400,000 includes 330,000 people of under 25? Does the noble Earl agree that the time has now come really to take some positive and concrete action in order to break the whole figure of long-term unemployment which at the moment appears to be absolutely intractable?

The Earl of Gowrie
My Lords, what is in no sense suspect is the encouraging sign that, though the workforce has been growing in this country, so has the number of people going into real and sustained employment. The noble Lord must be aware that the United Kingdom has a large workforce relative to our continental competitors. We have 66.2 per cent. of our working age population in work, as against some 45 per cent. in Spain, 54 per cent. in Italy, 55 per cent. in Ireland, 60 per cent. in France and 61 per cent. in Germany. So, while we have a larger scale of problem on the one hand, you could put it that we have greater success on the other.

§ Lord Dean of Beswick
My Lords, does the noble Earl the Minister not recall telling me last week that political decisions do not make jobs and employment? Will he have regard to what has taken place since last Thursday in this country, bearing in mind that most responsible people accept the view that 50 per cent. of present unemployment in this country is a direct result of Government policies? Is it not time for the Government to review their policies in their own interests, in view of the election results that are now coming through?

The Earl of Gowrie
My Lords, I would point out to the House that the party of the Government remains by far the largest victor in the recent European elections. But, on the point connected with employment which the noble Lord raised, I urge him and all of your Lordships to be very responsible in this respect. Any politician who says that policies rather than customers can create sustained employment is misleading people.

Viscount St. Davids
My Lords, since the advance of technology now seems to show that full employment in the old sense is unlikely to be attained—certainly not in the immediate future—is any thought being given to a world in which we may be living in a post-full employment situation, and in which different moral considerations and different methods of financing this world might exist? Is any thought being given to this?

The Earl of Gowrie
My Lords, thought is, of course, given by my department on these issues. But as I said in answer to a previous supplementary question, the fact that we have 66.2 per cent. of our working age population in work is encouraging, and my firm belief is that, if we can go on increasing our competitiveness, and if we can maintain a stable financial climate, we can improve greatly on that figure.