Economic Recovery: Statistical Basis (Hansard, 29 July 1982)

§ Lord Balogh
My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.

§ The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Health and Social Security (Lord Trefgarne)
My Lords, the latest CSO press notice, dated 13th July 1982, shows that industrial and manufacturing production was, in the latest three-month period, some 3 per cent. higher than at the low point in the spring of last year.

§ Lord Balogh
My Lords, does the Minister think that that is an adequate Answer—just one industry? Perhaps in order to measure the progress of the Government we should ask a shoemaker or handyman to tell us what is happening. Is the noble Lord not aware that the margin of error in these matters is much greater in the end result, and that experience shows that?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, the noble Lord asked me for the source of our information and I gave it to him. The document to which I referred is quite comprehensive. It is, I inderstand, available in the Library, but I should be pleased to send the noble Lord a copy.

Lord Bruce of Donington
My Lords, does the figure which the Minister has just given in respect of manufacturing industry include the production of oil and fuels, or is it in respect of real manufacturing industry as we understand it?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, I would have to check whether oil production was included in the figure to which I referred. I believe it was, but if I am wrong I will write to the noble Lord.

§ Lord Shinwell
My Lords, can the Minister say whether the statistical information he has given to the House has reduced the number of unemployed? Or are we to understand that one can make economic progress and still maintain unemployment at a level over 3 million?

§ Lord Trefgarne
I am afraid it is an historical fact, my Lords, that an improvement in the unemployment 352 position will lag some way behind the improvement in our economic performance generally. I have to tell the noble Lord what I suspect he already knows, which is that the unemployment figures have not significantly improved of late.

§ Lord Orr-Ewing
My Lords, is my noble friend aware that the construction industry has shown a very marked upturn on performance in recent years, in the public and the private sectors and in general construction, and that this is wholly satisfactory? The figures are not 3 per cent. but nearer 30 per cent. up on what was occurring last year.

§ Lord Trefgarne
Yes, my Lords, I am aware that the construction industry has shown a remarkable improvement in recent months, somewhat in line with the figures to which my noble friend referred.

§ Lord Leatherland
My Lords, will the Minister pay tribute to the workers in that industry for their undoubted ability?

§ Lord Trefgarne
Indeed, with pleasure, my Lords.

§ Lord Hatch of Lusby
My Lords, do the resources to which the noble Lord referred which give him and his Government optimism include today's Gazette, published by the Department of Employment, which shows that in April and May the number of dismissals in manufacturing industry rose from an average of 19,000 per month in the first quarter to 35,000 in April and 30,000 in May?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, I am aware, as I said in answer to the noble Lord, Lord Shinwell, that the unemployment situation is far from satisfactory and is of course a tragedy for the individual people concerned. The general trend in unemployment, however, is one where the rate of increase at least is not as high as it was; so perhaps there is a little bit of hope, even in that field.

§ Lord Hatch of Lusby
The Minister has not answered my question, my Lords, I asked whether he included in his resources the Gazette published today by the Department of Employment, which shows that the rate of redundancies in manufacturing industry was almost double in April and May compared with the first quarter of this year.

§ Lord Trefgarne
Frankly, my Lords, I heard the noble Lord's supplementary on the first occasion he asked it. I understand the point he is trying to make, and I attempted to answer it by saying that we accept that the position in terms of unemployment is far from satisfactory. I do not attempt to explain it away or apologise for it, but it is not a feature of the document to which I referred.

Lord Bruce of Donington
My Lords, is the Minister aware that the statistical material in the possession of the Federation of British Industries and the Associated British Chambers of Commerce has indicated to them, and they have expressed it publicly, in the Financial Times and elsewhere, that recovery is not on the way and that in fact a further downturn can be expected?

§ Lord Trefgarne
I would not accept that, my Lords. I gave the figures in my original Answer relating to the increase in productivity for the quarter March, April and May of this year. I accept that we are probably now on something of a plateau. I certainly do not accept that productivity is likely to decline. The important thing is to keep inflation under control and to notice the drops in interest rates, for example, which have occurred over roughly the same period.

§ Viscount Massereene and Ferrard
My Lords, would my noble friend agree that you cannot have a great increase in productivity if you have overmanning?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My noble friend is quite right, my Lords, but it is fair to say also that there has been a very substantial improvement in productivity in British industry in recent months.

§ Lord Balogh
My Lords, does the Minister realise that productivity can increase in some of the least productive areas, even with factories closing, and that that has nothing to do with an increase in general economic growth? Does the noble Lord also realise that his friends at the Stock Exchange take a different view from him?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, I am aware that the noble Lord has views which differ from those of the Government. I am afraid that I just do not agree with him.