HL Deb 16 February 1982 vol 427 cc457-8

2.55 p.m.

Lord Shinwell

My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.

The Question was as follows:

To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they will present an estimate of the financial cost which would be incurred in the event of conflict arising from aggression by another nation over a period of six months, as compared to the cost of a similar period of peace.

The Minister of State for Defence Procurement (Viscount Trenchard)

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Shinwell, will understand my difficulties in attempting to answer this Question. Much depends on what assumptions one makes about the nature and intensity of the aggression we would face. It is worth noting that, in the early years of the Second World War, expenditure was of the order of 40 per cent. of national income. With today's much more powerful and sophisticated weaponry I would imagine the figure could be even higher. This contrasts with our present defence budget of around 5 per cent. of the gross domestic product. It is obvious that, if we failed in our aim of deterring aggression and preserving the security of our peoples, the cost to the nation would be enormous.

Lord Shinwell

My Lords, is the noble Minister aware that I regard that as a very ambiguous and unsatisfactory Answer? It seemed to be a collection of non sequiturs. I only wanted to ascertain from the Minister whether the Government stand by their defence policy, or do they feel weak because of opposition both from their opponents and from their friends? What I am trying to demonstrate in this Question is that first of all I want to help the Government. I want to wipe the floor with those people who refuse to allow the country to provide defence organisation and expenditure in peacetime in order, if possible, to create a deterrent against a great conflict which would prove to be devastating, and mean ruin, bankruptcy and privation for our country.

Viscount Trenchard

My Lords, I entirely agree with the noble Lord. I hope that he will read my Answer to his Question in Hansard, the direction of which was designed fully to support the sentiments that he has just mentioned. On any figure that I can give on cost it is all too evident that the cost of war is very many times the cost of keeping the peace by deterrence. Perhaps the noble Lord will read my Answer. I do not think it was as ambiguous as he suggests. Of course the tragic consequences of war, beyond any possibility of counting in terms of cost in money, must be added. So we are quite determined to keep up our defence and to play our full part in deterrence.

Lord Robbins

My Lords, would the noble Viscount agree that the answer to Lord Shinwell's Question, as reformulated, would be over 50 per cent.?

Viscount Trenchard

My Lords, I think that any calculation is extremely difficult. One just does not know what sort of war one would be facing, but I have given figures which indicate that the cost of war in terms of money must be at least 10 times the cost of our 5 per cent. of GDP spent on defence at the moment.