Vienna: MBFR Negotiations (Hansard, 28 October 1981)

§ Lord Brockway
My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.

§ The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Trefgarne)
My Lords, the western participants in the negotiations on mutual 1069 and balanced force reductions (MBFR) remain committed to progress. The principal obstacle is the dispute over the size of eastern forces in Central Europe and the unco-operative attitude of the East towards resolving this. The western participants made new proposals intended to break the deadlock on 23rd July 1981. We hope that the East will respond constructively in the current round of negotiations.

§ Lord Brockway
My Lords, have not these talks been going on for eight years? Does the Minister agree that there is extraordinary ignorance, both by Members of Parliament and the public, at what is happening? Can the Government issue periodic reports so that we may know, and do not have to rely on the frequent Soviet Union reports, which naturally are biased? May I ask this: have principles been agreed for the draft agreement? Have the countries involved been West Germany, the Benelux countries, the GDR, Poland, Czechoslovakia, but has no agreement been reached about the volume of reductions?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, as for wider publicity of the proceedings at this conference, the Foreign Office do of course publish the Arms Control and Disarmament News Letter, which I know the noble Lord receives and reads. I must confess that over the seven or eight years that the conference has been in progress there has been precious little to report because so little progress has been made. I agree that wider dissemination of this unfortunate fact might be useful and might bring some pressure to bear upon the other side to adopt a more co-operative attitude, but I have to say that there is no basis for agreement at the present time.

§ Lord Renton
My Lords, is it not a fact that, even if there were complete nuclear disarmament, there is such a preponderance of conventional Soviet bloc forces in central Europe that Europe would then be at the mercy of the Soviet bloc?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, my noble friend is of course quite right. It is also the case, of course, that these particular talks to which the noble Lord, Lord Brockway, has referred are specifically concerned with conventional forces.

§ Lord Mayhew
My Lords, would the noble Lord agree that a major difficulty has been the Soviet reluctance to accept effective measures of verification? After years of discussing verification with the Soviet Government, have the Government reached any conclusions about the reasons for this obsession with secrecy?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, the problem of verification is certainly a major problem in the context of disarmament talks generally. It is not the specific problem in the MBFR talks at Vienna, where the principal problem remains the so-called data problem. That is the problem of establishing the relevant existing levels of our respective forces before we commence the question of reductions and subsequent verification.

§ Lord Stewart of Fulham
My Lords, may it not be the case that the Russians are reluctant to reach agree- 1070 ment since they have some reason to suppose that if they go on being obstinate long enough this country and her allies will disarm themselves unilaterally?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, that may be the view of the Soviets, but so far as this country is concerned they are mistaken.

§ Lord Jenkins of Putney
My Lords, is it not the case that what has actually happened in the eight years is that, while the discussions have been taking place, armaments have proliferated and increased on all sides? Is it not the case therefore that if a discussion goes on and on and on, eventually the inevitable nuclear explosion will occur in which we shall all be destroyed? Will the Government take no action designed to break through the impasse?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, the Western participants to the MBFR talks in Vienna are continuing to make efforts to break the impasse by various presentations and proposals which are made to that conference from time to time. I suspect, however, that the apocalypse to which the noble Lord referred is best averted by means of the nuclear posture which we adopt.

§ Lord Orr-Ewing
My Lords, is my noble friend aware that one would take the Soviet Union's ideas more seriously if they had not increased both their conventional and their nuclear capability every single year over the last eight years, until such time as they now far outweigh both in conventional and nuclear terms what the free world can operate against them? Would it not be a gesture for them to stop deploying SS20s, which are targeted on every major city in the free world in Western Europe, at the rate of one every three weeks, so that we now have 250 of these mobile reloadable weapons, each missile having three warheads, deployed in Western Europe? Is this the action of a Government—the Soviet Government—which is really sincere about reducing the tension and reducing armaments all round?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, I cannot of course answer for the motivation behind the actions of the Soviet Union, butt have to agree that the main thrust of my noble friend's supplementary is correct.

§ Lord Brockway
My Lords, arising from a question on the other side of the House may I ask whether the Minister can confirm that at Vienna the Soviet Union proposed a withdrawal by the United States of 13,000 servicemen, and that the USSR should withdraw 20,000 plus the 20,000 unilaterally withdrawn from the GDR? Arising from the question from the Liberal Party about verification, may I ask the noble Lord whether, in view of the charges on both sides of increased military power, the Government would consider the appointment of an investigation by a neutral authority, for example the Stockholm Institute, or representatives of unaligned Governments who would not be likely to be charged with spying?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, if the noble Lord is suggesting some new form of verification, certainly the Government will be prepared to look at that along 1071 with our allies, but of course it would need to be acceptable to the Soviets as well.

§ Lord Mayhew
My Lords, in the meantime would the noble Lord confirm that the only assessment of Soviet conventional forces and nuclear forces in Europe which has ever been used by any Soviet spokesman is the assessment made by the Institute of Strategic Studies in London?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, I do not know about that, but the fact remains that, whatever assessment is used, the Soviet strength in conventional forces and tanks and other weapons in this theatre is very substantial, and vastly exceeds that of the Western allies.