HL Deb 13 October 1981 vol 424 cc258-60

2.47 p.m.

Lord Bruce of Donington

My Lords, I beg leave to ask the first Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.

The Question was as follows:

To ask Her Majesty's Government whether the statement of the Chancellor of the Exchequer on Thursday 30th July 1981 that, "We are now at the end of the recession" represents the official view, at that date, of the Government and whether they now desire to modify their view.

The Minister of State, Treasury (Lord Cockfield)

My Lords, by early summer evidence was accumulating that the fall in output was coming to an end. During the first half of the year manufacturing output stabilised, short-time working was falling, the rise in unemployment was slowing and business opinion survey trends were improving. This was the background to the Chancellor's assessment at the end of July. Figures released today show that in the three months to August manufacturing output increased by nearly 2 per cent. over the previous three months.

Lord Bruce of Donington

My Lords, while noting that the noble Lord has not replied specifically to the Question on the Order Paper, may I ask him whether, in view of the fact that statements similar to that made by the Chancellor of the Exchequer on 30th July were made by Mr. Nott on 12th December 1980 and by the Prime Minister herself on 7th May last, we can place any greater reliance on the statement of the Chancellor on the 30th July than was evidently placed on the earlier statements to the same effect by Mr. Nott and by the Prime Minister? In view of the fact that since 30th July interest rates have gone up by 4 per cent., unemployment has increased by over 100,000 and the Financial Times index has gone down by nearly 40 points, may I ask the noble Lord whether in the face of that evidence, and of other evidence which has been forthcoming by chambers of commerce all over the country, he still maintains the idiotic proposition that the recession is over?

Lord Cockfield

My Lords, I gave the noble Lord a full and comprehensive reply to the Question that appeared on the Order Paper and I cited the evidence in support of what the Chancellor had said. I am surprised that the noble Lord has not welcomed the news that I have just given to the House that manufacturing output increased by nearly 2 per cent.—a not insignificant figure—over the previous three months. There are other factual items of evidence which support the view that progress is being made. For example, productivity has increased by 6 per cent. since last year, the level of wage settlements is now down to single figures and the rise in manufacturing costs has now stabilised. These are all welcome signs of progress being made.

Lord Underhill

My Lords, may I ask the noble Lord whether he has read today's main editorial in The Times? It expresses concern at quite a number of features of our economic and financial position. Does he have any comments to make on it?

Lord Cockfield

My Lords, I always read articles which appear in The Times with great interest but not always with agreement. The question related specifically not to the leader in The Times but to a statement made by my right honourable friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Obviously, at the present moment there are anxieties which we all share. Nevertheless, at the same time we ought to be prepared to welcome the signs of progress which are being shown.

Lord Jenkins of Putney

My Lords, as the noble Lord will be aware, a number of the members of his party in another place have expressed concern about the course of Government economic policy and have put forward a reasonable view that a change ought to occur quickly. Can the noble Lord say what is the position in this House?

Lord Cockfield

The position in this House, my Lords, is that the members of the party which support the Government are solid in their support of the Government. The Members of another place need to answer for their own views in another place.

Lord Molloy

My Lords, would the noble Lord agree that the Chancellor was probably quite correct when he said last July that we are getting to the end of the recession? But that is not the real problem. The real problem for the benefit of this nation is how quickly we shall get rid of this Government and their appalling policies.

Lord Cockfield

My Lords, I am glad to notice that the noble Lord disagrees fundamentally with his noble friend on the Front Bench. I hope however that they will resolve their differences in private.

Lord Kilbracken

My Lords, may I ask the noble Lord this question and could he preferably answer it either, "yes" or, "no"? Are we to understand from his replies that he does or does not agree with the statement by his right honourable friend that we are now at the end of the recession?

Lord Cockfield

My Lords, the noble Lord's question, with respect, is a classic example of what the logicians call plurales questiones, and I have no intention of falling into that trap. So far as the Question on the Order Paper is concerned, I have given a complete Answer to that.