§ Lord AVEBURYMy Lords, I beg leave to ask the first Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.
§ The Question was as follows:
§ To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimates they have received from the electricity supply authorities of maximum simultaneous demand in 1986–87, and how this compares with previous estimates for that year.
The MINISTER of STATE, DEPARTMENT of EMPLOYMENT (The Earl of Gowrie)My Lords, the Electricity Council informed Her Majesty's Government recently that they currently estimate that simultaneous maximum demand in England and Wales in 1986–87 under average cold spell conditions will be 48.5 gigawatts. This compares with a previous estimate of 51.1 gigawatts adopted by the council in 1979. It might be helpful to the House if I explained that a gigawatt is 1 million kilowatts, and 1 million kilowatts is 1 million times a one-bar electric fire.
§ Lord AVEBURYMy Lords, I thank the Minister for that reply. Is it not true that in nearly every year since 1970 the electricity authorities have had to scale down their previous forward estimates of maximum simultaneous demand; and would the noble Earl say what implications this has for the studies which are now being made by the Government of the future need for a fast reactor, which of course arises only if a large number of thermal reactor stations have been constructed first, thus using up the available supplies of uranium? Is it not a fact, my Lords, that a scaling down of the electricity authorities' future plans for 160 thermal reactors would delay the need for a fast reactor until the indefinite future?
The Earl of GOWRIEMy Lords, as I said in my original Answer, we are, of course, dealing here with estimates, and estimates can be wrong. It is true that the tendency has been to over-estimate demand recently, but in the 1950s and early 'sixties there was a record of underestimating demand. It is the Government's view that there would still be a leading role for nuclear power in electricity generation; and, of course, the nature of electricity demand would not be the only factor determining how one generated electricity.
§ Lord AVEBURYBut, my Lords, is it not a fact that in the 1950s and 1960s world oil prices were constant or declining in real terms, whereas from now onwards up to the end of the century, so far as we can see, even on the estimates of the Department of Energy, there will be a steady increase in the price of other kinds of fuel, perhaps amounting to a doubling or a trebling by the end of the century? So the decline in the forward estimates of maximum simultaneous demand would be expected, would they not, to continue as far ahead as the eye can see?
The Earl of GOWRIEMy Lords, I still think it is rather difficult to predict the future with any certainty. Nevertheless, the implications of the new load forecast will be looked at most carefully by the Government.