HL Deb 22 January 1980 vol 404 cc373-5

2.45 p.m.

Lord AVEBURY

My Lords, I beg leave to ask the second Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.

The Question was as follows:

To ask Her Majesty's Government whether the decline in public transport forecast in the Interim Memorandum on the National Traffic Forecasts is Government policy.

Lord MOWBRAY and STOURTON

My Lords, the Interim Memorandum sets out both the previous Administration's policy of encouraging bus availability and use, and their most realistic estimate of what is likely to happen. We support that aim, though we are proposing better methods of attaining it. We have endorsed the policy of using those forecasts as the basis for planning the trunk road system as they were compiled in the light of the findings of the Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment and we do not believe that planning should be based on unrealistic forecasts

Lord AVEBURY

My Lords, the noble Lord has not answered my Question with a simple "Yes" or No", as I had hoped he might. Why are the forecasts of future traffic growth which the department uses, and has always used, treated as matters of public policy, when the decline forecast in public transport is apparently not public policy? Surely in logic the alterations in the level of traffic flows, whether public or private, must be of a similar nature.

Lord MOWBRAY and STOURTON

My Lords I take the noble Lord's point. However, I must say that forecasts are bound, by their very nature, to be speculative. There is an array of factors which could affect bus patronage, not least the general economic situation and the price of oil. However, generally speaking, the falling trend seems likely to continue.

Lord CAMPBELL of CROY

My Lords, can my noble friend assist the House by recalling any instance in modern history in which a traffic forecast in this country has later, in the event, proved to be even approximately correct?

Lord MOWBRAY and STOURTON

My Lords, I cannot answer for past history too much, but at present we seem to be approximately within the margins which we would have estimated.

Lord ELWYN-JONES

My Lords, may I reply to the noble Lord with Mark Twain's observation: it is always dangerous to prophesy, especially about future events!

Lord MOWBRAY and STOURTON

My Lords, the House is very grateful to the noble and learned Lord.

Lord AVEBURY

My Lords, following what the noble Lord, Lord Campbell of Croy, has said—namely, that we have never been correct about traffic forecasts in the past—I should like to point out that it is wrong to treat them as public policy. As the noble Lord himself has said, they tend to be speculative. So, why is it that before trunk road and motorway inquiries these forecasts are treated as so sacrosanct that no witness or objector is entitled to question the department about how they were reached or to produce alternative evidence throwing doubt on the way that the forecasts have been derived?

Lord MOWBRAY and STOURTON

My Lords, as the noble Lord is well aware, we have had the report from Sir George Leitch, who, as I am sure the noble Lord is also aware, is now chairman of the Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment. That committee has been set up just to monitor the department's forecasting methods. The application of the national traffic forecast to individual road schemes is open to examination at public inquiries. However, what we cannot have at every public inquiry—and I think that this is the point which the noble Lord is getting at—is examination of the general overall picture of the country's policy. One can apply the Standing Committee's assessment of it to any local inquiry—that is perfectly admissible and is done.

Lord SHINWELL

My Lords, can the noble Lord say something about the forecast by the Conservative Party at the last election as regards the present situation?

Lord MOWBRAY and STOURTON

My Lords, my right honourable Leader in another place is a competent forecaster, as has been amply demonstrated.

Lord PAGET of NORTHAMPTON

My Lords, may I inquire whether the decline of the weather is Government policy?

Lord MOWBRAY and STOURTON

No, my Lords, we do leave some things to God!