§ 2.53 p.m.
§ Lord HATCH of LUSBYMy Lords, I beg leave to ask the second Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.
§ The Question was as follows:
§ To ask Her Majesty's Government what is their estimate of the present total population of Rhodesia and the percentage of that figure which is 18 years of age or over.
§ Lord GORONWY-ROBERTSMy Lords, I regret that the Government are not in a position to make an estimate. In June 1978 the régime estimated that the total population of Rhodesia was 6.93 million: it assesses the electorate for the forthcoming elections as 2.8 million. We have no independent means of verifying such figures.
§ Lord HATCH of LUSBYMy Lords, is my noble friend aware that the World Bank published a report last August giving the most detailed figures on world population and other matters that have ever been published; and that in their table the population of Rhodesia in mid-1976 was given as 6.5 million, with an annual increase rate of 3.5 per cent.? According to my arithmetic, that would mean that the population of Rhodesia today is well above 7 million and probably approaching 7½ million. Is it not, therefore, obvious that the régime, in giving a figure of 2.8 million for the electorate—that is, for those over the age of 18—is deliberately trying to keep down the number so that it can claim a high percentage when the poll takes place?
§ Lord GORONWY-ROBERTSMy Lords, whether the régime has such motivation or not—and probably my noble friend is right about the desire to present 1792 the mathematical situation, at least, more credibly than the constitutional position—we shall nevertheless assess the meaning of the elections shortly to be held in that country on a wide basis of criteria, principally the implementation of the Fifth Principle and also the relationship between what eventuates from those elections and their conduct and the decisions of the United Nations.
As to the figures themselves, I am in no position to dispute the World Bank figures but I would suggest that the figure of 6.93 million as the total population of Rhodesia in 1978 bears out my noble friend's suggestion that the present population is probably over 7 million; in which case the consequential figure of the electoral roll would seem to me to be more like 3.5 million, as he suggested, than the 2.8 million that the régime has officially announced. However, these two figures do not seem to me to be wildly out of proportion. In any case, as I have said, we must consider the situation in regard not only to the mathematics that emerge but in regard to the facts of the situation as a whole.
§ Lord AVEBURYMy Lords, whatever the electorate may be—and nobody will be able to give the figure with any certainty considering that no register is to be compiled—would the noble Lord not say that it is quite impossible for the so-called election to comply with the Fifth Principle, bearing in mind that armed gangs are at present roaming the country intimidating the population; that 85 per cent. of the land area is under martial law; and that the two parties which command the majority support of the people in Rhodesia are stopped from taking part?
§ Lord GORONWY-ROBERTSMy Lords, I was asked to give the Government's comments on the figures offered by my noble friend and others, and I did my best to do so. As to the criteria which the noble Lord, Lord Avebury, has advanced, these, of course, are very relevant to our assessment of the efficacy and validity of the elections which are proposed to be held on April 20th.
§ Lord ELTONMy Lords, would not the noble Lord agree that a material means of estimating the efficacy of that 1793 election would be for the Government to send observers to see what goes on there? Would Her Majesty's Government not use their best influence to try to prevent the guerrillas fighting during the period of the election?
§ Lord GORONWY-ROBERTSMy Lords, on the second point, most certainly: we have been, are and shall be exerting ourselves to achieve stability and a peaceful situation in Rhodesia. There is no doubt about that. As to sending observers, like the official Opposition, we do not consider that to send official Government observers to Rhodesia at this time will be helpful in any way.
§ Lord ELTONMy Lords, does the noble Lord not agree that observers are required? Is the noble Lord aware that some of my friends, led by the noble Lord, Lord Boyd, and others, including myself, will go in that capacity?
§ Lord GORONWY-ROBERTSMy Lords, going, I take it, as an official group on behalf of the Conservative Opposition. We live and learn! In any case, I would not wish the House to think that I approach this very important matter any less seriously than does my noble friend. It is one thing for the Government of this country, in the light of international undertakings and the possible reaction, not least in Africa, to send an official delegation to observe elections such as these; it is quite another thing, as my right honourable friends the Prime Minister and the Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary have said in another place (and as I have repeated here) for individuals and even groups which may be connected with Parliament to visit as such. We have said that we will place no hindrance in the path of such groups or individuals; indeed, we would seek to help them—but not officially.
Lord PAGET of NORTHAMPTONMy Lords, is the noble Lord aware that I have now three supplementary questions on which I should like him to help me? Is he aware that the delegation going to Rhodesia will be composed not only of members of the Opposition? Secondly, if the noble Lord, Lord Avebury, is correct in saying that two parties have the majority, is it not more likely that they would prefer elections to war, instead of 1794 rejecting all elections in favour of war? Thirdly, is not the fact that the population of Rhodesia has multiplied probably by five times since the Europeans have governed it, some evidence that the government has been fairly good from an African point of view; and is it not also true that when you have such a rapidly rising population, the majority are generally under 18?
§ Lord GORONWY-ROBERTSMy Lords, my noble friend is, as is not infrequently the case with him, not asking for information but offering it and throwing in the bonus of his own opinions—always interesting; not invariably helpful in a situation like this. As to his reference to the noble Lord, Lord Avebury, I agree with the noble Lord as to the criteria that he has applied to these elections in Rhodesia.
§ Lord HARMAR-NICHOLLSMy Lords, as regards future policy, will the noble Lord steel himself against being swayed by the hypothetical denigration contained in his noble friend's supplementary question, as indeed from the question from the Liberal Benches too, and obtain the facts by sending an official delegation so that hypotheses can be replaced by the facts as we discover them?
§ Lord GORONWY-ROBERTSMy Lords, with great respect to the noble Lord, Lord Harmar-Nicholls, I thought I had, in my second answer to the supplementary question, set out the Government's view of this. I did so, I hope, responsibly. There is no hindrance to individuals or groups whether or not connected with Parliament from visiting Rhodesia—almost everybody seems to be visiting Rhodesia from time to time anyway—coming back and speaking out in the United Kingdom, a free democracy, as to what is happening in Rhodesia, however unfree it may be. I make a distinction between that and a decision by Her Majesty's Government, bound as they are to clear international obligations, conscious as they must be of the impact of all official action, on opinion and reaction in Africa in particular; and I hoped that the noble Lord, Lord Harmar-Nicholls, would observe the distinction, as I rather think he did.
§ Lord BROCKWAYMy Lords, arising from the question which was put from the Opposition Front Bench, may I ask the Minister whether he has noted the fact that yesterday the Foreign Affairs Committee of the American Congress decided unanimously not to send observers because they felt that this election would not be truly representative of the people?
§ Lord GORONWY-ROBERTSMy Lords, of course, this is a matter for the American Congress, and anything that we do in this country will be a matter, if not for the British Government in certain cases, as my right honourable friend the Prime Minister has said, for the British Parliament. One cannot do more than take note of what other countries do in situations like this.
§ The LORD PRIVY SEAL (Lord Peart)My Lords, I hope that the noble Lord will feel that we have had a good run. I think that we have had a good run on this Question. Let us pass on to the next business.