§ Conclusion
§ I do not think that any of my predecessors would dispute that, in the face of the many uncertainties ahead of us over the coming year, an economic judgment at this time is—to put it mildly—more difficult than usual. This is why it is important to say quite openly that, while I believe that the judgment I have made is the right one, I shall not hesitate to take, at any time, any further action which may be required in the national interest.
§ Within five to seven years about two thirds of our oil requirements will be met from the North Sea, and beyond that there is every hope that production will grow to equal our total needs. 27 This alone will give Britain an immense industrial advantage. It will transform our balance of payments.
§ But over the next year or so, it must be said that we in Britain face a severe test, and that over this period we shall not achieve the prosperity we expected.
§ Following is the table referred to in col. 26:
| PUBLIC EXPENDITURE: 1973–74 AND 1974–75 | ||||||
| £ million | ||||||
| 1973–74 | 1974–75 | Reductions for | 1974–75 | 1974–75 | ||
| Cmnd. 5519 | Cmnd. 5519 | Capital | Procurement | Total | Revised programmes | |
| At 1973 Survey prices | ||||||
| Defence and external relations | ||||||
| 1. Defence | 3,398 | 3,418 | -16 | -162 | -178 | 3,240 |
| 2. Overseas services | 590 | 603 | — | — | — | 603 |
| Commerce and industry | ||||||
| 3. Agriculture, fisheries and forestry | 576 | 532 | -4 | -3 | -7 | 525 |
| 4. Trade, industry and employment | 1,917 | 1,664 | -10 | -9 | -19 | 1,645 |
| 5. Nationalised industries' capital expenditure | ||||||
| of which— | ||||||
| Fixed assets: | ||||||
| Fuel and power industries | 1,815 | 723* | — | — | -264 | 1,801 |
| Other industries | 1,323 | -264 | — | |||
| Other capital expenditure | 19 | — | — | |||
| Environmental services | ||||||
| 6. Roads and transport | 1,570 | 1,632 | -188 | -24 | -212 | 1,420 |
| 7. Housing | 2,165 | 1,963 | — | — | — | 1,963 |
| 8. Other environmental services | 1,425 | 1,409 | -139 | -9 | -148 | 1,261 |
| 9. Law, order and protective services | 948 | 973 | -21 | -11 | -32 | 941 |
| Social services | ||||||
| 10. Education and libraries, science and arts | 4,163 | 4,249 | -119 | -63 | -182 | 4,067 |
| 11. Health and personal social services | 3,286 | 3,378 | -69 | -42 | -111 | 3,267 |
| 12. Social security | 5,458 | 5,725 | — | — | — | 5,725 |
| Other services | ||||||
| 13. Other public services | 419 | 412 | -4 | — | -4 | 408 |
| 14. Common services | 433 | 459 | -17 | -6 | -23 | 436 |
| 15. Northern Ireland | 770 | 782 | — | — | — | 782 |
| Total programmes | 28,933 | 29,264 | -851 | -329 | -1,180 | 28,084 |
| 16. Debt interest | 2,950 | 2,800 | — | — | — | 2,800 |
| Contingency reserve | — | 150 | — | — | +100 | 250 |
| Shortfall | -400 | -300 | — | — | -100 | -400 |
| Adjustment to 1973–74 outturn prices and relative price effect | 865 | 890 | -25 | -10 | -35 | 855 |
| At 1973–74 outturn prices | ||||||
| Total | 32,348 | 32,804 | -876 | -339 | -1,215 | 31,859 |
| Percentage increase (+)/decrease (-) on 1973–74: | % | % | ||||
| in total expenditure (cost terms)† | +1.8 | -2.0 | ||||
| in purchase of goods and services (volume terms) | +2.8 | -3.7 | ||||
| * This figure embodies assumed shortfall of £100 million | ||||||
| † Excluding Investment Grants |
§ No Government, no Party, could honestly pretend otherwise.
§ I hope the House will permit me one personal word. I have taken the action which I believe to be right. I have tried to be fair. I hope the nation will respond.