HL Deb 15 October 1968 vol 296 cc1193-4
LORD FERRIER

My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.

[The Question was as follows:

To ask Her Majesty's Government whether they are satisfied that the Meteorological Office were unable to foretell the torrential nature of the rain of the 15th/16th September in time for a useful warning to be given to the public in the areas concerned.]

LORD WINTERBOTTOM

My Lords, the onset and persistence of prolonged rains and thunderstorms were we I forecast, although in the present stage of development of meteorology it is not possible to forecast rainfall amounts and intensities in precise terms. At 12.55 p.m. on September 14 heavy and prolonged rain for Southern England was forecast to continue into September 15. Subsequent forecasts on September 14 and 15 for 12 to 24 hours ahead also warned of heavy rain in the affected areas. The numerous regular broadcasts were supplemented by special "flash" warnings of heavy rain on September 15 and 15. Advance warnings were issued from September 14 to 16 to those river authorities and other bodies in the areas conerned which subscribe to the Meteorological Office rainfall warning service.

LORD FERRIER

My Lords, I thank the noble Lord for that detailed Answer and I have the temerity to ask a couple of supplementary questions. First, I think there are some 27 river authorities could he say how many of them take advantage of the facilities which are offered? Secondly, as one who feel; that warning of the imminence of exceptional conditions may be more important to people than the inevitably problematical long-range forecasts, would the Minister contemplate encouraging the Metrological Office to concentrate on such short-term forecasting, even at the experse of long-range forecasts?

LORD WINTERBOTTOM

My Lords, in answer to the noble Lord's first supplementary question may I say that the number of river authorities is in fact 29, of which only 16 subscribe to the Meteorological Office warning service. As to the second supplementary question, I do not think the two types of forecasting are in conflict with one another. I do not believe the attempt to forecast in the longer term is in any way handicapping the short-term forecasting which the noble Lord would like to see improved.