HL Deb 23 July 1968 vol 295 cc847-50

2.45 p.m.

BARONESS EMMET OF AMBERLEY

My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.

[The Question was as follows:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what steps they are taking to ascertain, for the next 25 years:

  1. 1. the natural increase in the population;
  2. 2. the acceptable immigration increase;
  3. 3. the likely emigration figure;
and what steps as a result they have in hand to meet the needs of the overpopulation of this country during that period.]

THE PARLIAMENTARY SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF HOUSING AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT (LORD KENNET).

My Lords, the Government use established statistical techniques to forecast population trends. They do not give certainty, but they suggest an increase of 10 million in the next 25 years. At the moment, there are about 300,000 immigrants a year, and rather more emigrants, making a net annual loss on migration of 40,000.

The question whether the word "overpopulation" is justified when applied to a possible increase of 10 million in 25 years is one on which the Government have, as yet, no view. There must be more study and more public discussion which, provided it is objective, the Government will welcome.

BARONESS EMMET OF AMBERLEY

My Lords, I thank the Minister for his full reply, but is he aware that I am slightly horrified that the Government have no views, as yet, on the results of this increase in population? But is he aware, also, that I am consoled by the fact that they will study this matter, and I shall perhaps put down a Question in 12 months' time to see whether their study has had any result.

LORD KENNET

My Lords, I should not let pass the noble Lady's formulation that the Government have no views on the results of this increase. They have, of course, views on the planning measures which must be taken if the population is going up substantially in the next 25 years. They have, as yet, no views as to whether it will be a good thing or a bad thing if the population does go up that much.

LORD TEVIOT

My Lords, is the Minister aware that in England the present population works out at 90 inhabitants per square mile, in Scotland 18, and in Wales 28? Therefore, will the Minister state whether development should be concentrated in Wales and in Scotland?

LORD KENNET

My Lords, that is another question.

LORD BROOKE OF CUMNOR

My Lords, may we return to Great Britain? The noble Lord said that the Government would welcome study. Are the Government themselves going to carry out continuing studies of this question, or are they relying on other people to do so?

LORD KENNET

Both, my Lords. They are looking to competent study organisations and individuals to do so, and they are also carrying out studies of this nature themselves.

BARONESS EMMET OF AMBERLEY

My Lords, would the noble Lord consider having these figures published in those countries from which we are receiving at the moment the majority of immigrants, so that they may realise that it is not a question of disliking immigrants but of the position which is growing in this country of over-population?

LORD KENNET

My Lords, I am sure that the Governments of those countries from which we principally receive immigrants are well aware of these figures. Whether it would be expedient for the British Government to take steps to publish them in those countries is another Question of which I should like notice.

LORD BARNBY

My Lords, since experience in the past has proved that migration assists exports, and in view of the fact that the Overseas Settlement Board has been discontinued, is the Minister able to give an assurance that contact with the High Commissioners of the Dominions, and also South Africa, is adequate to make sure that those who wish to emigrate can with advantage get the assistance?

LORD KENNET

Not without notice, my Lords.

BARONESS GAITSKELL

My Lords, would not my noble friend agree that, as the demographic estimates of population increases have been so unreliable in the last forty years, any estimates for the next twenty years have a large element of guesswork? But taking one set of figures from the Conservation Society, these figures state that by the end of the century we shall have 18 million more people in this country, of whom one million may be from immigrants.

LORD KENNET

My Lords, on the first part of the noble Baroness's question, it is the duty of the Government to make the best provision they can on the basis of available forecasts that they have had, while allowing for the inevitable margin of error in those forecasts. On the second part of the question, I could not, without notice, comment on those figures.

LORD SANDYS

My Lords, could the noble Lord indicate whether the demographic study of the population will be coupled with a study of feeding of the increased population by the appropriate Department?

LORD KENNET

Yes, my Lords, of course.