§ 2.45 p.m.
§ LORD GRIMSTON OF WESTBURYMy Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.
§ [The Question was as follows:
§ To ask Her Majesty's Government whether any assessment has been made of the damage to Britain's economy and the balance-of-payments position which will result from the operation of sanctions against Rhodesia.]
§ LORD SHEPHERDYes, my Lords.
§ LORD GRIMSTON OF WESTBURYMy Lords, while thanking the noble Lord for that Answer, I would ask him whether he is aware that six months ago, despite warnings, the Government took the view that sanctions would be effective in toppling the Smith régime in a matter of weeks, and that they have proved to be entirely wrong? Is he aware that what worries some of us, in such an assessment, is that the Government may be minimising the effect sanctions will have on the economy and balance of payments of this country? Is he aware that already the anti-British feeling over the whole of South Africa is causing a loss, that foreigners are cashing in; and, further, that if sanctions are escalated the result is likely to be quite disastrous to the British economy?
§ LORD SHEPHERDMy Lords, all the factors the noble Lord has mentioned 966 have been taken into account. The Government, and, I believe, both Houses of Parliament, have taken the view that sanctions were the right method of bringing Rhodesia back to constitutional Government; and that, I believe, is what we all hope will be achieved.
§ THE MARQUESS OF SALISBURYMy Lords, if the Government have, quite rightly, made an assessment on the matters raised in this Question, would they be very good and divulge them to Parliament?
§ LORD SHEPHERDMy Lords, in some respects the figures that would be given could not be entirely accurate, in the sense that we do not know how long the sanctions will be required; and there are many other aspects which would have to be taken into account. For this reason, I should not have thought that any assessment, if I were to give it, would be of great validity or use to your Lordships' House.
§ THE MARQUESS OF SALISBURYMy Lords, would the noble Lord no; agree that Parliament would be satisfied with a broad figure, representing the general position resulting from sanctions, and also taking into account the loss of our trade with the Union of South Africa?
§ LORD SHEPHERDMy Lords, I will consider what the noble Marquess has said, and perhaps I might have a word with him later to see whether he would like to put down a Question. At this stage I should not like to go further than I have done.
§ THE MARQUESS OF SALISBURYI thank the noble Lord.
§ LORD BARNBYMy Lords, could the noble Lord, who, with regard to his first reply, was confident and definite, give with regard to insurance some indication of the formula on which the assessment to which he referred is presumably going to be made? All who have been to South Africa recently are aware of the difficulties regarding insurance and reinsurance and the extent to which this country is losing it. In what manner is that assessment made?
§ LORD SHEPHERDMy Lords. I am not briefed with a wide range of sanctions and their effects; but, as I said to 967 the noble Marquess, I am quite prepared to have a conversation with the noble Lord.
§ LORD GRIMSTON OF WESTBURYMy Lords, might I ask the noble Lord whether he is aware that in one of his supplementary answers he said that the whole House was in agreement with the policy of sanctions? Might I ask him to remember that that is not so?
§ LORD SHEPHERDMy Lords, I will certainly look at Hansard and see what I said. I thought I said that both Houses of Parliament and the Government support this Bill.