§ 2.15 p.m.
§ LORD ERROLL OF HALEMy Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.
§ [The Question was as follows:
§ To ask Her Majesty's Government what steps they are taking to correct the deterioration in the standard of the weather forecasts now being issued by the Meteorological Office.]
§ LORD SHACKLETONMy Lords, I am not aware of any general deterioration. The general standard of the daily weather forecasts issued by the Meteorological Office has remained at a consistently good level for many years. Accuracy is assessed by checking each element of the forecast and awarding an overall marking according to a system under which the more important elements—for example, temperature, sunshine and rainfall—gain or lose more marks than the others. On this basis the daily forecasts issued for the general public are reckoned to be about 80 per cent. accurate, those issued in the morning for the coming day being the more accurate. Improvements in the general standard of forecasts are, however, expected as experience is gained with the new computer in the Meteorological Office and as further sources of information, such as more cloud pictures from American satellites, become available. Research is continuing to improve both short and long range forecasts.
§ LORD ERROLL OF HALEMy Lords, while thanking the noble Lord for his full Answer, may I ask him two questions under the headings of humility and humidity? In view of the fact that the present standard is only 80 per cent. accurate, would it not be possible for the Meteorological Office to issue an apology when they get their forecast completely wrong; and would it not be possible for them occasionally to admit that conditions are so variable that it is not possible to issue a reliable forecast at all, instead of the public being hoodwinked by the appearance of a dogmatic assertion about the forecast which is not likely to prove true in the event? Secondly, would it not be possible for more attention to be paid to humidity, 1061 because that has a very important bearing on what the weather feels like to the individual? A day like to-day, with a temperature in the middle sixties, can seem to be much warmer because of the humidity than a day in the seventies when the humidity is much lower.
§ LORD SHACKLETONMy Lords, according to the figures which I gave, it would mean that the Meteorological Office would have to apologise once every five forecasts and I do not think that this is a practical solution. The noble Lord is being rather naïve in thinking that forecasting can be an exact science. We all know it cannot be. It is interesting to know what a high proportion of forecasts, in this very imprecise field in this very variable country, are right. I can give the figures. Major errors in evening forecasts amount to about eight per month, and in morning forecasts the figure is four. I feel the noble Lord is being a little unreasonable and might himself show some humility in judging these matters. On the question of humidity, what the noble Lord is really thinking of is the chill factor, and the chill factor includes not only humidity but also wind.
§ LORD CARRINGTONMy Lords, is the noble Lord aware that some of us, unlike my noble friend beside me, would wish that the Meteorological Office were sometimes more wrong?