HL Deb 16 December 1963 vol 254 cc27-33

3.48 p.m.

THE JOINT PARLIAMENTARY SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF HEALTH (LORD NEWTON)

My Lords, with your permission, I should like to repeat a statement which is being made in another place by my right honourable friend the Minister of Health about the holding of a Census in 1966. The statement is as follows:

"With one exception, during the last war, a census of population has been taken every tenth year since 1801. The Government have decided that for the effective implementation of their policies there is a need for another census in 1966, after a period of only five years since the last one. At a time of rapid change and development, the traditional ten years is too long to wait for the hard figures which only a census gives, and the Census Act, 1920, contains express powers to hold a census every five years, subject to the authority of Parliament.

"The effective use of man-power and the planning of land use, of housing, and of environmental, health and social services—all these must begin with the latest figures about the population both as it is now and as it will be in the future. A relatively small percentage migration into a populous area or a relatively small change in the make-up of its population may seriously affect the amount of land and the amount of money required for housing, schools, hospitals and other services.

"The census will also be of value to users outside Government—to those engaged in research in the social sciences, economics and medicine and to industry and trade. Account will be taken, as in the past, of these needs in deciding on the topics to be covered.

"The Government have considered whether the census in 1966 need, for the purposes for which it is wanted, involve full coverage of every household in the country. They have concluded that it need not and that, with the exception of certain 'special study' areas, a 10 per cent. sample census will suffice, and they have authorised the necessary preparations to be made. As a sample enumeration is novel to the United Kingdom there will be a test of the sampling procedures in the spring of next year. This will involve approaches to a few thousand householders willing to co-operate.

"A draft Order in Council directing that the census be taken and prescribing the particulars to be required from householders will be laid before the House in due course."

That, my Lords, is the statement.

EARL ALEXANDER OF HILLSBOROUGH

My Lords, I am very much obliged to the Minister for giving us this statement, which is exceedingly interesting. The position is that, as the noble Lord says, the Government have the power to put the Census Act, 1920, into operation and to have an interim census. But when one considers what is in the statement, the reason for the census and the purposes for which it is found to be necessary the proposition to have a sort of Gallup Poll conducted by the Government upon a very limited section of the community seems rather extraordinary. It would be interesting—I feel sure the Government must have the figures ready, although we have only just seen this statement—to know what is the likely cost of a full census, what is the likely cost of the 10 per cent. census, and how much of value we lose in respect of information received from a sort of 10 per cent. Gallup Poll of the community. We have no idea at the moment—I do not know whether there is going to be a debate on this matter at some time—which special areas are to have a closer study than the rest will have. But I am not very satisfied at the moment that what the Government have announced to-day is altogether the best way of proceeding. I think either we ought to know more details now, or we ought to have a debate on the matter

LORD NEWTON

My Lords, I am obliged to the noble Earl for what he has said. The cost of the proposed sample census will be about £1 million, and the cost of a full census would be about £4 million. The Government are satisfied, after very full consideration, that a sample census as is proposed will be sufficient to achieve the purposes which I outlined in the statement. The details of how it is going to be organised have still to be worked out in consultation with local authorities and others, but the Government thought it right to give Parliament as soon as possible an indication of what their intentions are.

BARONESS SUMMERSKILL

My Lords, may I add something to what my noble friend has said? I agree with him, and I am sure the whole House agrees, that a census is desirable, because during the last few years there have been some striking social changes which have been commented on in both Houses, in the Press, on the television and so on. We have had only a very short time to consider the matter since we were given the information that this census was to be taken, but I think that this is rather a short-sighted economy, because some of the social changes which come within the terms of reference of this census, as described in this statement, can surely be assessed only in a full census. They are national changes, not local changes.

I attach great importance to the migration of people from the North to the South—and this is not a migration of old people; it is a migration of young people from the North to the South. This is very important. One can only deduce what is the pressure on houses, the pressure on schools and the pressure on hospitals, if we have a complete census coving the North and the South. This afternoon we have been discussing Commonwealth immigration—another social problem—and there are special factors here. At this stage I think we should be told precisely where people from the Commonwealth countries are living, because again there are special problems of education. We have learnt that in some areas these boys and girls from the Commonwealth have been segregated in certain classes, because they have not been able to speak the language. It has been argued, I think quite rightly, that this is wrong; there should be integration. Again, how can you arrange your schools unless you know precisely where these pockets, let us say, of immigrants are living?

The statement mentions health. In some hospitals there are long waiting lists for certain surgeons or physicians. Specialties of all kinds are distributed in different ways. How can we know, in the light of the Ten-Year Plan for hospitals, just how these hospitals should be distributed to the best advantage, unless we have a complete census? I might also say, as I am speaking about health, that not only are there long waiting lists; there is another problem of the distribution of general practitioners. In some areas they are over-provided, in other areas they are under-provided, and some of this problem is related to the change in population. My final point is on the subject of drugs. There is a higher consumption of drugs in some areas than in others. Again, there must be certain factors in the population which account for this.

I have just commented on certain aspects of this statement which have occurred to me. Although one has not had a great deal of time to consider the matter, I think, with regard to the difference between £1 million and £4 million and the amount of money in relation to the population which will finally be spent on hospitals, schools and social services, that it is a shortsighted economy not to do this particular job thoroughly.

LORD NEWTON

My Lords, I was very glad to hear that the noble Lady considers that it is right to have another census after only five years. The actual questions which will be asked in the census have still to be determined after full consultation with people like the local authorities and university research workers, and other research workers. Similarly the sort of topics upon which elucidation is deirable has also to be decided. But, in general, I would not dissent at all from the subjects which the noble Baroness suggested as being worthy of further investigation.

On the question of whether the objects we have in mind can be achieved as well in a partial census as in a full one, I recognise that this can be a matter of opinion. But we have considered this matter very carefully indeed, and I can only repeat that in the view of Her Majesty's Government this sample census will be sufficient for the purposes we have in mind.

LORD OGMORE

My Lords, could the noble Lord tell us what the special study areas are to be?

LORD NEWTON

My Lords, I cannot tell the noble Lord where they will be. I think they will be few; they will be areas where there seems to be the most urgent need for special studies calling for very detailed information. We envisage that there will be a few areas with exceptional characteristics where a full census will be desirable. But I am afraid I cannot say more about that at the moment, because there is nothing to say.

LORD SILKIN

My Lords, I should like to ask the noble Lord two questions. The first is this. Is this intended to be a once-for-all census in 1966, and then shall we go on to the ordinary ten-year period; or is it contemplated that there will be a census in future every five years? The other question is this. If this census is to be of any value at all, the results ought to be available much sooner than the results under the existing census. I believe it usually takes a year or more before we get any results from the census. Will the noble Lord make representations, to make sure that we get the results more quickly than we normally do? Otherwise, by the time we get the results they may be out of date.

LORD NEWTON

My Lords, nothing I have said should be taken to prejudge the question whether there will be some sort of census every five years in the future. I just do not know. I should think it probable, but, again, I would not put it higher than that: that in 1971 there will be another full census as there was in 1961. But I should not wish to be dogmatic at all about this.

As regards the availability of the results, we hope they will start to be available from a few months after the actual taking of the census, and that all the results will be available by the end of 1967. We certainly hope that results will come along much more quickly than they have done in respect of the last census, where we have got behind with our programme. The reason for that was that the use of a computer for the first time unfortunately presented problems which had not been envisaged, but we have learned a lot from our experience of these computers. I certainly agree with the noble Lord that the results should be made available as soon as they possibly can be.

EARL ALEXANDER OF HILLSBOROUGH

My Lords, to meet the point made by my noble friend Lord Silkin with regard to the time of publication, it seems to me that if, out of the 10 per cent. sample census, you are not going to get information before the end of 1967, then you might just as well have the full census. If you are going to use a computer, I hope you will be very certain of what programme questions are put to the computer.

LORD NEWTON

My Lords, perhaps I did not make it quite clear. We hope that the results will start coming along and start to be published a very few months after the holding of the census, and that all the results will be available by the end of 1967.

LORD SILKIN

But, my Lords, that is well over a year from the time the census is taken. Surely the noble Lord could make representations to see all the results are made available much sooner than that.

LORD NEWTON

I will certainly take note of the noble Lord's view that the production of the results should be as quick as possible. There is nothing between him and us on that. Certainly it is the intention to produce the results as quickly as this can be done.

LORD OGMORE

But, my Lords, the Gallup polls and the national opinion polls come out in about a week, as I understand it, or within a fortnight, of being taken. A period of over a year seems to me to do away with a great deal of the merit of having a poll at all.

LORD NEWTON

My Lords, I would not say that a census is really comparable with a Gallup poll.