§ 2.43 p.m.
§ VISCOUNT SAMUEL rose to draw attention to the continuing and rapid increase in world population and to the need for increasing world production of food and raw materials if present standards of living are to be maintained and improved; to ask Her Majesty's Government whether they will give a conspectus of the measures now being taken by United Nations, the British Commonwealth, and other countries to promote the productivity of under-developed regions; and to move for Papers. The noble Viscount said: The atmosphere of your Lordships' House is one of leisure compared with that of the other Chamber, where events of the day always seem to be treading on the heels of yesterday. We are able to make from time to time a somewhat more philosophical survey of long-range problems, examine present trends and try to provide for future developments. And there is no problem of greater importance, and perhaps of greater difficulty, which can engage your Lordships' House than that to which I would invite your attention to-day.
109§ It is a vast subject, this question of world population and resources. We have been provided with ample information in many books and pamphlets and whole volumes of statistics. For my own part, to-day I shall trouble your Lordships with very few figures, and such as I give are mostly drawn from the official publications of the United Nations and their Agencies, particularly the Food and Agriculture Organisation. One of their publications, issued only a few weeks ago, gives an address by the Director of the Agricultural Division to an international conference at Canberra last January, and the few figures which I shall give provide the justification for today's debate and are my text. They are figures which in their nature cannot be precise. I shall give very round figures because they are easier to grasp and to remember.
§ A hundred years ago, in 1850, the population of the world was rather over 1,000 million. In 1900, it was 1,500 million. To-day, it is 2,500 million, and if present trends are continued—and that is a big "if"—there will be added about 100,000 more mouths to feed every day, and by the earlier part of the next century the total population will be doubled and will amount to 5,000 million. A hundred years ago, 1,000 million; 50 years ago, 1,500 million; now, 2,500 million; next century, 5,000 million. These figures have given rise to great anxiety among all students of human affairs and the question is asked whether the human race is not headed towards sheer disaster.
§ The chief event of our scientific year here is always the meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science, and the first feature in its proceedings is the presidential address. The year before last, at the meeting at Belfast, the President was Dr. A. V. Hill, a physiologist of international fame and a Nobel Prizeman, who took this very problem as his subject. He came to the conclusion that with the rapid lowering of death rates all over the world, unless there is a deliberate restriction of birth rates, in many countries there will be not only no rise of living standards but a gradual and inevitable fall. He said that science, which is responsible for the present situation by improvements in health and in other ways, should ask itself whether these improvements really car be ethically justified if the effects are likely 110 to be sheer disaster. And he gave to his address the title, "The Ethical Dilemma of Science."
§ It is said with regard to this that Malthus raised the same issue in the earlier years of the nineteenth century and his pessimistic prognostications were falsified by the Industrial Revolution and by the opening up of vast new territories to colonisation and productivity. And it is asked whether anything of that kind can possibly happen again. The Neo-Malthusian—for a school of Neo-Malthusians has grown up—tell us that the fertility of the human race is outstripping the fertility of the planet; and instead of harbouring rosy dreams of universal prosperity we have to look forward to a world-wide poverty even worse than that of to-day. The individual may expect longer life, but in a world of widespread misery.
§ The proposition I should like to put before your Lordships' House to-day is that this not need be so; that science, which has brought about the danger, brings also the means for preventing it. If there are millions more mouths to feed—100,000 more every day—every mouth brings also two hands to work, and if there is a stomach, there is also a brain. Dr. A. V. Hill, whose address was admirable, so far as it went, almost ignored this aspect and is therefore open to much criticism. Undoubtedly there are enormous opportunities for extending the area of soil under cultivation, and even greater opportunities of vastly increasing its yield.
§ For an example we need not go to the ends of the earth, or to distant times: we can take our own island here, and the years of the present century. I remember how, before the First World War, when speaking of British agriculture, we always used to boast that its standards were the highest in the world; that the yield of wheat per acre was an example to other countries, and that our dairy herds were likewise an example for every one to emulate. There followed two world wars, and great pressure of need, and we had to increase our domestic production. What has been the result? One of the Surveys of the Food and Agriculture Organisation, which has just been published, deals with European agriculture. For this country, it states that, comparing present yields of wheat, the yields for 1950 to 1952 with the yield before the 111 First World War, from 1909 to 1913, the increase per acre has been nearly 30 per cent., or nearly one-third, while within that short period the milk yield per cow has been increased by nearly 50 per cent. over standards which were already high. Lest we should puff ourselves up with national pride at these figures, I must add that similar figures apply to most of the countries of Europe over the same period, with the exception of five or six.
§ The noble Earl who is to reply to-day gave an answer in your Lordships' House on behalf of the Ministry of Agriculture on March 18 in which he gave a comparison for the agricultural output of the United Kingdom, in the year 1953–54 with that in the period before the outbreak of the last war in 1939. The total output of our farms had increased in that short period, fifteen years, by 56 per cent.—and that with no comparable increase in manpower. Owing to the greater use of machinery (the noble Earl did not give this answer, but a paper provided to me by the Ministry of Agriculture gives me these supplementary figures) the output per man has risen in that period by 30 per cent. Since the men are working shorter hours, it means that the output per man-hour has risen by 40 per cent. That is, as I say, mainly the result of machinery.
§ It is therefore a fallacy to suppose that a mere increase of population must be a sheer liability, and in itself a debit charge. If we take one of the greatest examples of rapid increase of population, that of the United States of America, in 1850 the United States had a population of 23 million; in 1950 of 150 million, and now 160 million; and, of course, the increased productivity is far greater than that enormous increase of population. If all the world had increased its productivity to the same extent as the United States have done, in proportion to population, there would be no question for us to debate here to-day. If in Europe, with these comparatively high standards of production already at the earlier date, these great increases have been effected in so short a time, surely it ought to be possible for countries which start at a much lower level of output to increase their production greatly.
§ There are two lines of possible advance: one is the increase of area, and the other the increase of yield. Irrigation 112 works marvels, and it can often be combined with the production of hydroelectric power. It is being so combined in many parts of the world, and has been for years past in the famous Tennessee Valley administration. Now, in Russia, in India, in China, in Egypt, and in other countries, these vast schemes have brought millions and millions of acres into fertility. Only this week Her Majesty The Queen is to inaugurate a dam at the outlet where the Nile flows from the Victoria Nyanza. a great enterprise which will convert the whole of the Victoria Nyanza, which is about the size of Ireland, into a reservoir for the production of hydro-electric power and the provision of water for irrigation for the Sudan and Egypt. Immense possibilities lie before Africa, because Africa, which has 20 per cent. of the land surface of the earth produces only 5 per cent. of its food. The projects that are now in hand will add tens of millions of acres to the fertile productivity of the world.
§ In addition, there is the attack on the jungle, which covers vast areas in several continents. That has sometimes proved to be a danger, because deforestation exposes the soil in the tropics to the torrential rains which erode the soil and reduce the fertility, rather than increase it. But that can be prevented without difficulty. A book has been published in the last few weeks giving the results of a mission, sent by the United Nations and all its Agencies in co-operation, to South-Eastern Asia. The mission was headed by Mr. Ritchie Calder, who wrote a book called Men Against the Desert and has now written a fascinating book with the title Men Against the Jungle. His subject is really much wider than the title would indicate. His mission began in Sarawak, and passed through many countries, ending in Afghanistan. Relating to what is being done in Siam, or Thailand, as it should be called, a scheme for fighting the jungle has there been adopted which does not lead to the indiscriminate destruction of the ancient teak forests but establishes the principle of planned forestry, leaving large areas of forest still standing, with cultivation in between, with the result that there is no erosion, there is more food and there is as much timber as before.
§ With regard to the yield from the soil, this is largely a question of equipment, as we all know. The machine is taking the place of human or animal labour—and, 113 incidentally, that very conversion releases great quantities of food, because the farmers of the world have no longer to provide enormous quantities of food as fodder for their draught animals, oxen or horses. By replacing that labour with oil or hydro-electricity, immense quantities of food are automatically released from animal consumption for human consumption. The most important equipment on the farm is its human labour, and there in the tropics, where the poverty is greatest, a vast proportion of the people are incapacitated by chronic disease. They are killed or debilitated by malaria. The word "yaws" is almost unknown here, but in some countries that disease dominates the whole of the population. Mr. Calder tells us that in Java which he visited, out of seventy million population, twelve million are believed to be suffering from this disease, which cripples hands, feet and legs, and entirely incapacitates the victim from useful work. It can be cured now by penicillin. Often a single injection at the early stages effects a complete cure, and two or three injections is sufficient in most other cases. The workers whose value has been completely destroyed by this terrible disease will now be restored to useful productivity. In all these ways immense opportunities are open.
§ Now I come to an entirely different aspect. It is not a question only of grants in aid for the peoples who are helpless and hopeless, given by the United Nations or philanthropic Governments, such as those of the United States and other countries. The solution must come from the peoples themselves, and President Truman's Point Four laid emphasis on that fact. They have intelligence, but in order that they may be able to adopt new methods their intelligence has to be trained by education. They have industry, but industry is conditional upon health. They have enterprise, but enterprise must be inspired by hope, and for many of them there is little hope. This battle will be lost or won in the million villages of India and Pakistan, or in the vast provinces of China or in all the other countries in the tropical and sub-tropical regions which are affected by these conditions.
§ All observers, travellers and investigators agree on one point: that the evil conditions that now prevail are largely due to the degraded position of women. 114 They are denied opportunities; the homes are squalid and unhealthy; they have no notion of sanitation or health requirements, and almost all are illiterate in some of these countries. What is needed is generation after generation of intelligent, free, educated women, to work not only in the fields, as they do now, but also in schools, in the clinics and, above all, in the homes. Taken as a whole, the problem of Asia and Africa is largely a problem of the liberation and education of women.
§ I would say no more on these questions of needs and opportunities, for we are fortunate in your Lordships' House in having several experts of world fame, some of whom will be taking part in this debate. The noble Lord, Lord Boyd-Orr, who was the Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations for some years and a Nobel Prizeman, as we know, will shortly address your Lordships. The noble Viscount, Lord Bruce of Melbourne, was for four years the chairman of the World Food Council. He interested your Lordships yesterday in the economic debate when he spoke on these subjects. I hope he will add a few words to-day in order to clinch his argument of yesterday and to give it direct application. There is also my noble friend Lord Beveridge who, among economists, is one of the few who is really planet conscious, and there is also the noble Lord, Lord Simon of Wythenshawe, who is leading the team of Political and Economic Planning which is concentrating upon this question; and there are many others of your Lordships' House who have special knowledge of particular points.
§ I would, therefore, for myself, add a reference only to two long-range possibilities which may eventuate to some extent within the present century. One is the development of nuclear energy. In countries which have no coal or oil, and insufficient water power, nuclear energy may result in economic salvation. It can bring electricity to the farms and also pump water from the rivers and wells. Often in those countries there are low-lying water levels which could easily be utilised, if there were sufficient power, and which, if they were utilised, would work miracles in redeeming the desert. Those of your Lordships who have seen the schemes already at work for the con- 115 quest of the desert in various countries know full well the almost magical result that follows from bringing water to the desert. The desert is not an unfertile region; it is only asleep. If you bring water to the desert, whether it is the Tennessee Valley or other parts of the United States, or whether it is in India or, as I have seen it, in Israel, land which was formerly barren sand with a little scrub on it, after a year or two is a wonderful scene of miles and miles of waving corn. If it is the case that nuclear energy is available freely and without undue cost to these countries for those purposes, that alone will be sufficient to work a revolution.
§ The second possibility is that, while we are concentrating our attention upon the soil, there is an enormous wealth of food material in the sea. All our fisheries put together have touched only a fraction of the potentialities of the ocean. The word "plankton" is little known as yet, but in the next generation and the generation after it may be familiar as one of the main sources of human food supply. As your Lordships know, plankton consists of organisms, most of them microscopic, some rather larger, a large proportion vegetable, others animal, mostly single-celled organisms. That plankton sustains all the fish life in the seas, and not only fish but also the mammals which likewise live in the ocean. For instance, I recently read that in two years, feeding on plankton alone—microscopic organisms—the blue whale can grow to a length of sixty feet and a weight of fifty tons. The more modest requirements of human beings will very likely be met in a similar way.
§ It is only a question of mode of preparation and availability. Plankton can be had for the asking. It is merely dredged from the surface of the sea, and it contains millions and millions of tons of protein, as well as quantities of vitamins. If the human race has been clever enough to grasp the nitrogen out of the air and convert it, by means of artificial fertilisers, into bread and milk, surely it would be clever enough to take the plankton from the sea, with its right chemical constituents, to make it available in one form or another for human sustenance. Meanwhile, interesting experiments are going on in fish cultivation, 116 some in Scotland and some in Israel, where methods of making fish ponds and fertilising them with nitrates and phosphates, as farmlands are fertilised by similar chemicals, have resulted in spectacular results in the increase in the growth and weight of fish. Those remarks are briefly and by the way.
§ I come lastly to the question of what is the special concern of your Lordships' House in these matters and what can be done about it. The most populous regions which are concerned here are economically the weakest, and they are overwhelmed by the colossal vastness of the task that faces them. The question is how we can best help them. There are made available for them, as for all the world, all the discoveries of science, and this country may claim an honourable place there: the conquest of malaria due to Sir Ronald Ross; the conquest of other diseases, through penicillin, due to Sir Alexander Fleming and the Oxford team of chemists. And the whole of the electrical industry has its founder in Faraday. Then, of course, there are all the engineers, chemists and scientists in all the other countries of the world.
§ The first kind of help that we can give to those countries that we are now considering is no doubt to send them chemists, technicians, educationists and doctors. That is being done in large numbers, and soon, one may hope, these peoples themselves will provide their own technicians and scientists. Finance, however, is an even graver and more difficult problem. Vast sums are needed before a programme such as that which has been sketched out by the experts can be carried into effect. There is no reason that I can see why the populations of this country and other countries, already very heavily taxed, should be taxed further in order to give a grant for carrying out these projects. After all, the stability and prosperity of our own country, and, similarly, of the United States and of Western Europe, are themselves necessary and of service to the world.
§ In the nineteenth century, the development of the whole of America, North and South, was made possible by the loan of capital from the accumulations of centuries of economic growth and prosperity in Europe. These hundreds of millions of pounds which through that century flowed into the American 117 countries were of advantage to both sides. On the one side, they helped those countries to develop their economies and, on our side, they helped to buttress our own economy because, before the First World War, as we all know, a large part of our prosperity arose from the fact that there had been these investments which brought in every year large sums of money which were transformed into food and raw materials. During the wars we had to realise our investments and to spend our savings. Therefore, we lost that large annual bonus in food and raw materials. We lost the excess of imports over exports which was given to us, which added to our prosperity, because the more we can import and the less we export, the richer we become. It is not the other way about in terms of real wealth. If only we could import all of the food and raw materials that we need and pay nothing for them, we should be rich indeed. But the consequence of the sale of all our investments is that this balance of commodities has disappeared.
§ Now our capital goes on increasing—in this country there are still very large accumulations of capital—and there is the same opportunity for making it fruitful and profitable as there was in the nineteenth century in the Western Hemisphere by turning to these new countries of the East. But, first, it is essential that those countries should realise that, if they expect and need and are to receive these great sums of capital, they must make themselves creditworthy. The projects that they promote must be sound in themselves; they must keep their currency stable; they must preserve law and order, and get rid of a disease which is the worst of all in the politics of the Orient—corruption. If those conditions are fulfilled and they become credit-worthy, and the projects are sound economically, they will be most profitable, not only to the inhabitants of the countries but also to the lenders of capital from here; and most of them will quickly pay their way.
§ Mr. Calder mentions one project that is in hand in Pakistan for making an enormous barrage across the mighty River Brahmaputra, a project needing a capital of no less than £150 million to carry it out. But mark the consequences that are expected! It is estimated, in accordance with this well-worked-out 118 plan, that the increased production will cover such an immense area that the annual value of that production will be in the neighbourhood of £480 million. A single expenditure, once and for all, of £150 million gives an annual production of £480 million. There are schemes of that sort all over the world. It will not come immediately; but gradually, as the district develops, the size of the river and the area accessible will make possible these vast figures.
§ There is one other point on the economic side. It is not only a question of the direct return that we should receive from such investments abroad to buttress our general economy; we should also be building up new markets for our exports. The noble Viscount, Lord Bruce of Melbourne, in his interesting speech yesterday, dwelt on this point. He said that exports are essential to us in order to employ workers and to pay for our great volume of imports. We shall be faced by the active competition of Germany, Japan, and the United States. New markets are needed and the new markets are not there. He said that some new and almost dramatic proposal is needed at this juncture. Well, here it is—to bring in the markets of Asia, Africa, and, to some extent, South America and the West Indies, and so forth, in order to create, by adding to their prosperity and their available purchasing power, fresh markets for the highly developed manufactured articles which this country is so well able to produce.
§ My Lords, many of these gigantic works, and many smaller ones, are going forward in Russia, and we hear reports of others in China; but we know very little about any of them. Authoritative voices from Russia say that they are anxious now to lessen the tension between East and West. If that is so, they should show some willingness to co-operate in these measures. It is a remarkable thing that within the last few weeks and months Russia has announced her willingness to rejoin the Agencies of the United Nations to promote these schemes. U.N.E.S.C.O. and several of the others are now to have Russian co-operation, and when China is admitted to the United Nations (as of course she must be, when the present tensions in Korea and Indo-China are over), and when she occupies that seat in the Security Council allotted to her by the Charter, a seat which is now occupied by 119 the representative of the Government of Formosa, then no doubt she also will be ready to co-operate in these measures.
§ Meantime, would it not be well for all parties if the world were allowed to see and to understand these works of reconstruction that are now going forward in Russia and in China? Would it not be a good thing if the appropriate organisations in those two countries were to invite representatives of the world Press and technicians to visit and to learn what they are doing? There could be no secret about measures such as these. If that were done, I am sure that from this side, from Britain, there would be an eager acceptance of such invitations, and we should hope that reciprocal visits might be paid from there to see what we are doing—for we, as well as other parts of the British Commonwealth, have much to show. Unless peace is made secure, no one's prosperity can be assured. Man must renounce war. Without that all our efforts will be in vain.
§ So to-day I would ask Her Majesty's Government if they will tell the House what is actually being done at this moment along the lines that I have indicated, and what is planned for the immediate future, by our own Government, independently; by the Commonwealth in general; by the United Nations, one of whose most active members we are, in order to meet this problem of world population, and not only to keep pace with the growth of population but greatly to raise the standard of living of the less developed populations. My reason for asking this question is not only that I think this is a way to counter the growth of Communism (though that is of importance), and not only in order to provide markets for our trade (though that also is highly important), but quite a different one. We are now leaving one phase of world history for another: the old policies of Imperial conquest and Colonial administration are out of date and are gradually being discarded, never to return. Let us not, then, withdraw into a sullen disappointment and an indifference to the fate of the vast populations whose welfare we have in past generations sincerely tried to serve. Let the more experienced and more prosperous peoples realise that they have a plain moral obligation to aid their 120 fellow-men who are struggling with utterly insufficient resources to cope with the new and hard tasks of full self-government. We should be ready to act with energy and good will for the sake of their human rights and of our human duties. My Lords, I beg to move for Papers.