§ LORD BARNBY had given Notice that he would call the attention of His Majesty's Government to the present suppression of commercial statistics and to the widespread belief in industrial and other circles that, in many directions, this is beyond the requirements of security; and move for Papers. The noble Lord said: My Lords, this is a matter which is causing much concern to industry. At this time when planning is being so much discussed and is so hopefully looked forward to, industrialists, in formulating their plans, need to have all the advice and guidance which are obtainable in the ordinary way from statistics dealing with past achievements. There exists, however, almost a complete black-out of industrial statistics at the present time, and the effect of this is to deny to industrialists and others the essential knowledge to guide them in their plans. I realize that the matter has already been raised in another place, and therefore it is within the knowledge of the House that it is receiving, or at least has received, the consideration of the Ministers concerned. A member of your Lordships' House, Viscount Davidson, who has taken a particular interest in this matter and has brought to bear upon it a long experience, has been associated with the representations made to the President of the Board of Trade, and he had hoped himself to be here to-day to support the appeal which I am about to make. The Board of Trade have advised the President, I suppose, that he can allow no relaxation of existing 400 arrangements at present, but it is widely felt that the matter should be pursued further.
§ Let me give an illustration of the great importance of commercial statistics. Surely it is arguable in connexion with the coal crisis that had the figures vital to the consideration of the industry been progressively released from the beginning of the war, instead of beng partially suppressed and then only released after a long interval, the seriousness of the situation which faces us to-day might have been modified by anticipatory action. In export trade, of course, these statistics are particularly important. While statistics have been suppressed here comparable statistics in the United States of America have been published, so that the relative sacrifice made by identical industries in the two countries is not brought into relief and that fact might well conflict with the fundamental principles underlying the White Paper. That set out, as your Lordships will remember, the fundamental basis on which it rested, though it is true it was associated with considerations of lease-lend. There are industries in this country making sacrifices which are greater than those made by comparable industries in the United States, but neither in the matter of the raw material supplied nor in exports is there any proper basis available for comparison.
§ I intended to be very brief, but I hope I have sufficiently explained the underlying reasons for making this appeal. I should like to anticipate my noble friend who will reply by saying that I and others who have been instrumental in approaching the Board of Trade are fully conscious of the intense need for respecting security. I should like to add one other matter. It might be argued that a partial release of statistics, a partial lifting of the veil, might result in conclusions more dangerous than would be caused by a complete black-out. That is an argument which I anticipate by rebutting. In conclusion, I wish to say that it is widely held by industrialists and traders in general, and supported by many responsible organizations, that some relaxation would be timely, and it is in that spirit that I appeal to my noble friend. If, as I anticipate, his answer may not be very promising, I trust he will at least convey to the proper quarter the strong feeling that does exist as to the need for a review of this problem. I beg to move for Papers.
401§ LORD TEMPLEMOREMy Lords, my noble friend has raised, as he is well able to do, a question of very great importance, and has expressed an opinion that the time has come to lighten what he calls the statistical blackout. There are several very tiresome things about this war—minor things in a way. One is the petrol restrictions, and another is what: we know as the black-out; but, tiresome as these are, I do not think any of your Lordships, or my noble friend himself, would advocate the lightening of the petrol restrictions bemuse, at the moment, we seem to have got even with the U-boat, nor would he suggest lifting the black-out because enemy raids are not so numerous or so heavy as they were three years ago. My noble friend may say, of course, that these ant concrete cases and that his is an abstract case on which it is net so easy to lay down rules, but I hope to show, in the course of my few remarks, the reason why the Government must really, for the moment stick to their guns.
First of all, I should like to describe the main principles that govern the action of His Majesty's Government in this important matter. The Government are firm believers in the danger of careless talk on which they lay great stress, and which they are continually impressing on members of the Services and members of the public generally. It is extraordinary how apparently harmless information can be used to make important deductions about matters which are seemingly entirely 7mconnected. It is very hard for people who are concerned with the release of information to realize how it might be useful to the enemy. Intelligence work mainly consists in taking a mass of apparently trivial and unrelated facts and using them to build up a provisional hypothesis, and then adapting this hypothesis with the aid of yet more such facts. It is very difficult for people who are concerned with releasing information to visualize how this may aid the enemy from a hundred and one different angles. Therefore, the only way really to avoid mistakes is to adopt general rules, as regards release of information, which may seem unnecessarily strict. I am not denying that in many cases they are unnecessarily strict, and no doubt cause very great inconvenience not only to the statisticians, but also to the important business community. But there are provisions laid down by the Government by 402 means of which people who really require particular figures can apply for their special release, and in such a case each application is carefully considered on its merits. I must say, however, that the normal attitude is bound to be that it is better to risk inconvenience, tiresome though it may be to our traders and the business community, than to endanger the lives of our men and our Allies or to run any risk of prolonging the war.
The next thing is that the business community have not now so much need for these statistics as they used to have. Many decisions in these matters have to be made not by the business community but by His Majesty's Government and, generally, on quite different grounds. There is no need, for instance, for business men to have access to information upon which they used to judge the world's supply and price of materials, because His Majesty's Government decide on the quantities to be imported and allocate these at controlled prices in the way that they consider most useful to the war effort. Again, there is no need for business men to have statistics to assess, for instance, the number of bicycles or kettles or hats or what you will, which it would be most profitable to market, because the output of such goods has to be restricted so as to free resources for the war. In short, the Government are the main customers to many industries and have to do the planning for them, while for others they have to decide how much is to be produced. Even in the case of exports, as the noble Lord will know, the Government licence usually determines the event, and business men have little need of statistics to enable them to judge how much they might export if they were allowed. I do not say that suppression of these statistics does no harm, and if Hitler and his advisers could not understand English I dare say it might be desirable to publish them, but as things are the need for statistics is much reduced and the reduction justifies the policy of general suppression, subject to release where that can be justified.
As your Lordships know, in this connexion before the war the Board of Trade used to publish monthly a detailed report of imports and exports. That was discontinued at the beginning of the war, but up to 1940 they did continue to publish a summary of information regarding values of imports and exports in respect of each 403 group of commodities. Even then, however, it was considered that some information might possibly be useful to the enemy—for instance, figures regarding oils, fats and resins manufactured. I should like to say here that His Majesty's Government fully realize that the power of the enemy to cause loss through the use of economics to further their submarine campaign is much reduced, but the time has not yet come when publication of overseas trade figures could be allowed without damage to national interest. As regards what we are doing to give information to trades which really need it, first of all there is a quarterly publication of a number of figures regarding exports. These are mainly connected with textile industries and to a large extent with the wool industry, with which I know my noble friend is very closely connected. Then there are applications from individual firms and associations for particular purposes. They are sometimes received and if no objections by the Departments concerned are put forward the figures are made available in confidence. Therefore, it will be seen that as regards oversea trade figures the people essentially concerned can get this information, but the general picture regarding imports and exports cannot be disclosed.
Now I come to certain statistics which have been maintained or have been introduced afresh during the war. First of all, we have what I think all you- Lordships will consider to be a very useful table. That is the analysis of the national income which is given in the Budget White Paper every year. This is an innovation and one which I think is generally approved by everybody who sees it. Secondly, we have a certain amount of information regarding the earnings of many classes of workers. This information was originally required by the Government for their own purposes. They thought that it could not possibly be of any use to the enemy, and therefore it is issued and is available to everybody. Then we have a report of retail sales, which is issued monthly. This, I think, has never failed to appear monthly since the beginning of the war. It is useful both for traders directly concerned and for students of the general position. Figures are given from time to time regarding the mobilization of our man- and woman-power and also the extent to which food needs are met from our own 404 production. Lastly, I must mention a very interesting special contribution which was issued recently by the Minister of Production. It was given in an answer by my right honourable friend the Minister of Production in reply to Sir Patrick Hannon in another place on March 8. That is a catalogue of munitions and arms which have been produced during the war.
I have mentioned certain publications and returns which we have issued in order to help traders and others. I dare say my noble friend will say, "Oh yes, that is all very well, but a great many of these are disconnected and it is impossible to build up from them a comprehensive picture." I quite understand that. Nothing can be more annoying, I am sure, to the keen statistician than that a lot of the figures and returns issued should apparently have no connexion with one another; but unfortunately a series of comparable figures issued regularly would be just what the Government consider most dangerous and their value would be greatest to those very intelligent students of statistics and other matters—namely, the enemy's General Staff. Finally, I would impress upon my noble friend and the House the supreme need for caution in producing information at this moment, and we cannot, I am afraid, relax in any way our precautions in this or in other matters on the very eve of the Second Front. His Majesty's Government have great sympathy with the reasons which have induced my noble friend to put down this Motion, but I am afraid they do not regard it as a very opportune time and cannot at the moment alter their policy in this matter, nor in any other direction, pending the great events which are shortly to take place. I would say in conclusion that they are sure that the business community, who have responded so willingly to all inconveniences and restrictions during four and a half years of war, will be willing to continue their support for all measures which so nearly concern the lives of our men and those of our Allies and the successful outcome of future operations.
§ LORD BARNBYMy Lords, the degree to which my noble friend was able to foreshadow any relaxation of the present position was slight, but he wrapped up the pill with gracious courtesy as is customary with him in answering 405 questions. Nevertheless I think your Lordships will be satisfied that this was not an inopportune question to raise. He reminded the House that essential figures to the extent that they are in the hands the Government can be made available the discretion of the Minister, but it is only a limited extent. He then went on to refer to certain classes of statistics and it is in regard to that that, with the permission of your Lordships, I would again ask him to press for review. There are, for instance, classes of figures dealing with stock piles of commodities in the United States, which are not published by the British Government on grounds of security but are published in the United States. There does not seem to be any reason for that. The figures come to England in papers published in the United States but are considered improper for release by the Government in this country. That is a matter which I would particularly urge my noble friend to represent in the right quarter. I would add that I feel there was much in his reedy which will have served a most useful purpose and that the information given will be much appreciated. I thank my noble friend for his reply and I beg leave to withdraw my Motion.
§ Motion for Papers, by leave, withdrawn.