WAR SITUATION.

HL Deb 19 January 1943 vol 125 cc613-27

LORD ADDISON

My Lords, may I ask the Leader of the House whether His Majesty's Government have a statement to make on the war situation?

THE LORD PRIVY SEAL (VISCOUNT CRANBORNE) (Lord Cecil)

My Lords, the custom has grown up in these serious times that when Parliament meets after a Recess the Government should give some account of the progress of the war. It is now, I think, nearly three months since I made to your Lordships a general statement on the war situation. On the last occasion—it was November 11—it was a very stimulating moment. The Eighth Army had just won a crushing victory at El Alamein, the enemy were in full retreat; no one knew where they were likely to stop. There were those who prophesied at that time that they might make a pause at Tobruk. There were others who were more optimistic, and thought that no breathing space would be given to Rommel before Benghazi, or even El Agheila. None perhaps at that moment dared to pitch their hopes very much higher than that. But at any rate the prestige of the British Army, which in the early years of the war had suffered some setbacks, had, I think it was generally agreed, at one dramatic stroke restored its position in the world.

Following that famous victory the news had just been announced, when I spoke, of the Anglo-American landings in North-West Africa. I was able to tell your Lordships the initial successes which had been achieved. The Allies had established themselves, or were at that moment establishing themselves, at Algiers, at Oran and at Casablanca; but how that situation was going to develop, what further successes lay before the Allies was still wrapt in mystery. What would be the attitude of the French authorities in Morocco, in Tunisia and in West Africa. How far would the surprise which we had achieved enable us to gain possession of the Tunisian tip before the enemy could mobilize his resources? These things were as yet unknown. All we could say was that this new enterprise was vast and bold in conception, was brilliant in execution, had started well, and bade fair ultimately to transform the situation in the Western theatre of war.

Then I was able to turn to the Russian Front and describe the stirring events there. At that time, as your Lordships will remember, the Germans were still attacking at Stalingrad. The issue of that epic of war was still in the balance, but it was already clear, even at that time, that the stubborn Russian defence had dislocated German plans. Hitler, as M. Stalin had exposed in a speech a few weeks before, had intended after the capture of Stalingrad to branch his Armies to the north and to the south, to capture with one section of his Army the Caucasian oilfields, and with the other to roll up the main Russian line which was defending Moscow. That was his grandiose plan for the summer campaign, and it was already clear by November 11th that that plan had failed. The vast expenditure of life and treasure in which the Germans had indulged had not brought them success. The season was already too far advanced for the achievement of their main aims. But at the same time, at that date, they still held their spearpoint of Stalingrad pointed at the heart of Russia, and if they were able to hold that position throughout the winter—and it was still possible that they might—the situation of the Russian Armies in the spring might have been indeed serious.

That was the position in the Western war when I spoke in November. Since then two months have passed, two eventful months packed with incident and excitement. Where do we stand to-day. How have the hopes which we had at that time been fulfilled? In some respects they have been even exceeded. Look at the present position of the Eighth Army. The awkward corner at Agheila which had so often frustrated our hopes has been successfully turned. It is now hundreds of miles behind our forward line. In four months the Eighth Army has advanced a distance almost equal to the distance between London and Moscow, and they are still advancing. The main problem in the latter part of the advance has been one of maintenance and the smooth flow of supplies and troops to the forward area. The Supply Services have worked, and are working, admirably to make possible the advance of the Eighth Army which began again, as your Lordships know, on the morning of January 15. This latest move forward has so far been very successful, our forces outflanking the enemy and forcing him out of the Wadi Zem Zem position. The Eighth Army is now pursuing the retreating enemy and has advanced about eighty miles. Indeed, the Libyan battlefield and the Tunisian battlefield, which were not long ago separated by many hundreds of miles, have now become almost one. That is a war of attrition with a vengeance. We in this country are perhaps apt to take events a little bit too much as a matter of course. Once they have happened we accept them; but we should recognize that the way General Alexander, General Montgomery, and their Staffs—particularly their supply organization—surmounted the difficulties of supply in a vast desert area with few ports and inadequate railways, is one of the greatest achievements of modern warfare. So much for what used to be called the Egyptian campaign and is now called the Tripolitanian campaign, and which I hope will soon be the Tunisian campaign.

What of the North African campaign? Here we have not such complete success to record. That is not to say that it has not also been the theatre of very stirring events. There has been for instance, the Darlan episode. That episode was closed in a tragic and dramatic fashion, and there is nothing that I could profitably say about it to-day except that we look forward to the most cordial co-operation with his successor, General Giraud. I would not wish to suggest to your Lordships that a stage has been reached when all the political problems of North Africa are a thing of the past. We have only to read the newspapers to know that that is not so. The tragic events of 1940 temporarily shattered French unity, and it is going to be a difficult and delicate process to put it together again. But, at any rate, the position of His Majesty's Government, as of the Government of the United States, is clear. In the political field the two Governments, for the future, have a single objective, and that is the union of all Frenchmen in the war against the Axis for the liberation of France.

It is in order to help towards this end that my right honourable friend Mr. Macmillan has been appointed Minister Resident at Allied Headquarters in North-West Africa. His function is to report on the political situation and future plans for French North Africa, and to represent to the Commander-in-Chief the views of His Majesty's Government on political matters. He has been cordially welcomed by General Eisenhower, and is already working in the closest collaboration with him and with President Roosevelt's personal representative on the Commander-in-Chief's Staff, Mr. Murphy. We must profoundly hope that no considerations of personal prestige will hinder or delay that complete unification of all those sections of French opinion which is essential if France is to be delivered from the common enemy. In the meantime, the less we say here in England the better. The problem of welding together the various sections of French opinion is primarily a matter for the French themselves, and interference by enthusiasts in other nations, however well meant, is likely to do a good deal more harm than good.

The other aspects of the situation in North Africa have, I think, developed in ways for the most part favourable to the Allied cause. Practically the whole of the vast French North African Empire has now rallied to our side. Algeria, Morocco, French West Africa, the great ports of Algiers, Oran, Casablanca and Dakar are now available for the Allied Armies and Navies and are denied to the Axis. Considerable French Forces are also now fighting by our side with courage and determination. They have already achieved valuable successes, and as it becomes possible to re-equip them we may expect them to play an ever-increasing part in the common fight.

No doubt events in the North African theatre have not fulfilled our wildest hopes. There was just the possibility, though it was never more, as your Lordships know, that we might be able to push our forces straight through to Tunis and Bizerta before the enemy could mobilize their defence, but this complete success has been denied to us. There were many factors, some expected, some unexpected, which combined to add to the difficulties of our task. There were first of all the simple facts of geography. The distances are enormous. The distance from Algiers to Tunis as the crow flies is over 400 miles, and by road it is further. To move a modern Army with all the manifold appurtenances of supply and equipment over often second-rate roads and over such immense distances must inevitably take time, whereas the enemy were able to bring their supplies direct by sea and air to a base very near to their front line. Then the weather was atrocious and in particular the forward aerodromes, which as your Lordships know are largely constructed of beaten earth, were often unusable for the protection of our troops and became little more than seas of mud. These are not put forward to your Lordships as excuses for an avoidable failure; they are put forward as reasons why what was at best a hazardous enterprise has not been completely successful. They are some of the chances of war which no forethought could obviate. Therefore, as a result of them, it has become inevitable that there should be a campaign to drive the Germans out instead of our having forestalled them, and in recent weeks both sides have been busily reinforcing themselves for the struggle.

I think, my Lords, there is not the slightest reason why we should feel any discouragement about the military position in Tunisia. No doubt the delay has been unfortunate for the Allies: it postpones our advance to the next stage. But for the Axis the maintenance of Armies in so exposed a position as Tunisia constitutes a constant running sore. Enemy ships that run the gauntlet of the passage from Italy are exposed to the attack of our sea and our air Forces, and we have in fact sunk one in three of the ships so employed; though I should strike a note of caution. Conditions for our submarines must inevitably become more difficult as the enemy learns our methods and finds ways of countering them. Yet, precarious as the enemy's position is, he cannot abandon it now but must submit to this continuous and heavy drain upon his resources. Meanwhile what we have already achieved has, I believe, brought a measure of relief to our Russian Allies in their heroic struggle, and what we have achieved is only the beginning of what we hope to do. I think therefore that we can continue to look on the North African Expedition with sober satisfaction for the present and with confidence for the future.

If the African Front is encouraging, if it constitutes a valuable Second Front, the position in Russia has also improved beyond all expectations. Three months ago the Germans were still on the offensive. Now they are in retreat over practically the whole of the Southern Front. Then, Hitler's Armies were threatening Stalingrad and were menacing the Russian supply route by the Volga. Now that powerful Nazi spearhead, numbering at least 150,000 men according to the best information that we have, is entirely cut off from the main German Armies. It is short of materials, it is short of food, it is fighting for its life, and it is being gradually reduced. Further West the Russian Armies who have left Stalingrad behind them are steadily advancing. Already they have performed a very remarkable feat in maintaining an offensive on a 200-mile front with a penetration at one point to a depth of 180 miles over a terrain which is very sparse in communications. The main Russian offensive in the south opened on the 20th November, when they struck at the German salient both north-west and south-west of Stalingrad, as a result of which they gained the whole of the north-eastern part of the Don bend, advanced a considerable distance south-west of Stalingrad and left a large German Force, as I have said, surrounded east of the Don. In mid-December they struck again at the Don salient from the north and the east and this fresh offensive has also resulted in far-reaching developments. From the north the Russians have captured the important railway junction of Millerovo, through which the Germans had supplied the northern part of their Don Front.

During the last few days, as your Lordships will have heard this morning, the Russians have been engaged in a series of attacks with the object of raising the siege of Leningrad and last night the great news was received that their efforts have been crowned with success. Schlusselburg has fallen, the ring round the city has been broken, and arms and food are being freely passed in to the inhabitants. So ends happily a noble episode in the long history of Russia. Further south, a fresh Russian offensive was announced on the 16th January in the upper Don sector. This has already made considerable progress against the Hungarians and Germans, and has crossed and probably cleared a big stretch of the railway running south from Voronezh to Rostov. This railway, if restored, would play an important part in future Russian operations. The main offensive in the Don area has made further ground, and on the north and east is approaching the general line of the River Donetz. South of the Lower Don the Russians are pressing forward against stubborn German resistance which is strongest along the line of the River Manich, and news has now come in that the river has been crossed, while the area held by the German Sixth Army at Stalingrad has been further reduced by relentless Russian attacks. The Germans are still withdrawing to the North Caucasus, where the Russians, following up closely on a wide front, are now some 30 miles north-west of Mineralni Vodi astride the Baku-Rostov railway. This retirement of the Germans is probably no doubt partly in view of the threat to their communications further north. Already the Russian offensive has brought them far on the road to Rostov and the situation of the Southern German Armies must be beginning to be extremely anxious.

We in this country are straining every nerve to assist the Russian offensive. In spite of the opposition of the enemy both by sea and by air, and in spite of the appalling hardship of Arctic conditions, our convoys are continuing to carry munitions and supplies to the assistance of the Russian Armies, and the brilliant action of the Royal Navy in northern waters, of which your Lordships will have read, when a light British Force drove off a greatly superior enemy Force, is evidence of the determination of ourselves and of the United States to deliver the sinews of war to our Allies. Moreover, the bomber effort over Germany and the industrial centres of the occupied territories has not been allowed to stand still despite unfavourable weather conditions. As an illustration of the scope of activity of the Bomber Command, in November and December their aircraft operated on every day throughout the two months. During the month of January, the present month, Bomber Command have carried out twelve raids up to date, in the course of which they have attacked important industrial targets in North-West Germany and particularly at Essen, the German U-boat base at Lorient, which was the subject of a heavy and well-directed attack, and in addition, as your Lordships know, they have launched two powerful raids against Berlin.

Indeed, the potentialities of the present situation are very great indeed. More than that it is of course impossible at present to say. To prophesy the course of war is notoriously dangerous. The kaleidoscope of a great conflict of this kind forms very rapidly new and unpredictable patterns, but I think that it is significant that German military broadcasters, in paying tribute to the power and skill of the Russian attacks, seem to be preparing the German people for further reverses. Your Lordships may have seen that on January 10 the German expert, General Dittmar, said: Though numbers alone cannot decide a campaign, they cannot be entirely neglected without danger. Even Frederick the Great said 'With too unequal a force victory may be denied even to the most efficient troops.' The Soviets are far ahead of us in exploiting their man-power reserves. It is ultimately dangerous for them, but at the moment it is an advantage. Noble Lords will also have noticed that he allowed himself, or perhaps Hitler allowed him, to give another hollow groan in rather the same strain only this morning, and there is no doubt that that is the mot d'ordre of the German Propaganda Ministry at the present time. It is clear that these melancholy sighs must make bad hearing for the German people who, only two years ago, were told that victory was already within their grasp.

The growing fears of the Nazi leaders are characteristically shown in the unspeakable barbarities which they are now inflicting on their subject peoples, and especially upon the Jews. They are like rats in a trap snapping and snarling in every direction, attacking not merely men but women and children as well. The civilized world has witnessed these revolting cruelties with growing horror, as has been apparent from the debates which have been held in your Lordships' House. His Majesty's Government, with the Governments of the other Allied countries, have been seeking how we may alleviate the sufferings of these unhappy victims and we have been examining the problem. I am glad to be able to repeat the statement which has already been made in another place to-day. I think it is right that your Lordships, who have shown very great interest in this question, should hear it direct yourselves: His Majesty's Government's intention, in associating themselves with the Allied Government's declaration of December 17 on the German policy of exterminating the Jews in Europe, was to help in arresting this policy. They are, at the same time, conscious of the fact that the only real remedy for the consistent Nazi policy of racial and religious persecution lies in an Allied victory; every resource of all the Allied nations must be bent towards this supreme object. Measures for the rescue and relief of such refugees as succeed in escaping from German-occupied territory cannot be exclusively British, and His Majesty's Government are now engaged in consultations with the other Governments most immediately concerned with a view to seeing what further measure it is possible to take, as soon as possible, to assist those who make their way to countries beyond German control. These consultations are necessarily confidential, and it would not be in the interest of the refugees themselves to enter upon any discussion of them at the present juncture. His Majesty's Government's share in meeting this need has already been very substantial. They are nevertheless themselves working out certain practical proposals which they can make as a further contribution to this concerted effort by the United Nations. His Majesty's Government feel the tragedy of the situation as much as any noble Lord in this House, and are trying in conjunction with their Allies to find at any rate some partial solution of the situation with which we are all of us faced.

The portents of Axis difficulties which are visible in Europe and North Africa are also, I think, apparent in the Far East. Here, too, the enemy appears to be being driven on to the defensive. I think it is recognized that from the earliest days of the Far Eastern Campaign the Achilles heel of Japan was shipping, and during recent months her losses have been increasingly heavy. Her attempts to reinforce her troops in the Solomon Islands and in New Guinea have added to those losses, and in the west, in Southern Burma, our Forces are now pressing forward towards Akyab. It is perhaps not unnatural in these circumstances that the Japanese Government should recognize that their difficulties are rapidly increasing. Your Lordships may have seen a statement made by General Tojo on December 27 in which he said: A close observation of the situation reveals that moves of the utmost strategic importance are lurking everywhere, giving the impression that the real war is starting now. In the Solomons the enemy possesses excellent air bases, and it is consequently difficult to land supplies of food and ammunition. In China the Japanese Expeditionary Forces are fighting numerous engagements, striving to crush the enemy and maintain peace and order within the occupied areas. The Japanese Air Force is endeavouring to crush enemy activity in advance. In the north Japanese units are safeguarding the occupied islands in spite of repeated enemy air raids. In Manchukuo Japanese armed forces are guarding our northern defences in face of an everchanging national situation. Other units stationed in Japan are engaged day and night without relaxation in providing against air raids and preparing for future developments of the war. Even Japan itself, it seems, is now not regarded as safe. That statement showed a very different spirit from the reckless Japanese arrogance of last year. Indeed, everywhere, whether in the West or in the East, there are signs of perturbation and anxiety in the councils of our enemies.

That, I suggest, is the general strategic picture as we look at it to-day. Your Lordships may say that I have painted a picture in unduly rosy colours, and certainly it would be, in my view, both misleading and dangerous to suggest that the war has been nearly won. There are, as yet, no possible grounds for complacency. We shall need, as I am certain your Lordships will agree, every ounce of our strength if we are to achieve victory. The Axis military machine is still immensely powerful, and is still in occupation of vast and fruitful areas. Moreover (if one may touch in the shadows to the picture), there is one area of this vast conflict of which I have not yet spoken and which is yet by far the most formidable. That is, of course, the submarine campaign. Here alone it cannot be said that there is, as yet, a radical improvement. Throughout the waste places of the Seven Seas the grim and unrelenting conflict continues, and as prospects for the Germans and their satellite Powers of a successful outcome of the war on land continue to decrease, and as our offensive in the air gains in volume and power, the enemy is concentrating his energies more and more upon these attacks upon our sea communications. The scale of the U-boat attack is increasing, and it is probable that the peak has not yet been reached. All the same, I do not think that there are any grounds for pessimism as to the result, for the Allies, in their turn, are, as your Lordships know, developing to the utmost extent in their power the counter-measures which they are taking. Recent weeks have been a very successful period in the struggle against the U-boat and the highest rate of sinkings yet achieved in this war followed the Allied landings in North Africa.

LORD ADDISON

Sinkings of what?

VISCOUNT CRANBORNE

Of U-boats. I am sorry if I did not make that clear. As your Lordships know, the rate of building of merchant ships, especially in the United States, has been accelerated in a very spectacular manner. But—and your Lordships, I hope, will make no mistake about this—we can, in my view, expect no relaxation of the U-boat campaign. Germany realizes that it is her only chance of escaping total defeat. Therefore, this campaign can be expected to continue unabated until the very last hours of the war, and we must bend all our energies to dealing with it. It is the primary duty of every one of us here at home to do everything we can to reduce the strain upon the Merchant Service. Whatever temporary sacrifices we may have to bear we must accept them with courage and fortitude. That is the only adequate tribute we can pay to those gallant men who are risking their lives every hour of the day to bring us the necessities of life.

Now, my Lords, I have come to the end of my review of the present situation. As we cast our eyes over the whole vast panorama of the war, we must, I think, if we are realistic, see not merely the high lights but also the shadows. But I think we can, without undue optimism, say that the situation is steadily improving. Two years ago—even one year ago—the Allies were everywhere on the defensive. But now, as the Germans themselves confess, they and their associates are fighting for their lives. Moreover, I think the Axis Powers have less reason for hope now than we had then, and for this reason. Our setbacks at the beginning of this war were not due to the fact that we were fundamentally weaker, but because we were not fully prepared. Our resources were always immense but they had not been mobilised. It is, of course, the essence of the Blitzkrieg to hit the enemy before he is ready. That was the technique employed by the Axis in Western Europe, in Russia and at Pearl Harbour. It very nearly came off. Indeed, it was only the fortitude of the democratic peoples, and, above all of the British peoples, that prevented its success. To-day the situation is widely different. There is no question of the Axis developing further their own resources. These have been fully mobilized from the start. If the enemy have now been driven to the defensive it is because their strength is declining in comparison with the growing power of the Allied Nations.

Everywhere, I think, there is evidence of this. There is their frantic struggle to obtain oil, which has led to their great losses in Russia, and to their present anxious plight in that country. There is the growing inability of the Luftwaffe to meet the calls on all fronts. There are the savage attempts, to which I have already referred, to suppress the rising spirit of revolt in the occupied countries. This last most horrible development of the war is a significant portent. Germany and her satellites are no longer concerned with the goodwill of the conquered peoples. They are no longer concerned to obtain their willing co-operation in Hitler's "New Order." They are reduced to a desperate attempt to batter these peoples into acquiescence as long as possible. That is the measure of their fear of the retribution which is coming upon them. And these unspeakable horrors have for us, too, a further significance. They show the illimitable wickedness of the people against whom we are fighting. If anyone ever had any doubts that we were fighting a crusade, he can have no such doubts now. The fight is by no means won. Great hardships probably lie before us; great sacrifices of blood and of treasure. But we can, I think, enter 1943 with a sober and growing confidence that the sacrifices we have already made have not been in vain and that they will lay the foundations of a better and, we may hope, a wiser world.

LORD ADDISON

My Lords, I am sure that every member of your Lordships' House will appreciate and value very highly the statement which the noble Viscount has just made. I was not aware of its content before it was made, except that one could fairly well surmise some of it; and I think that it is evident from its character that it would not be appropriate for it to become the subject of a debate to-day. There are, however, many matters which have been indicated by the noble Viscount which I hope your Lordships will be prepared to discuss in the near future. Some of them are matters of first-rate importance, on which a debate would be, I hope, entirely advantageous. We should all like to join in the appreciation which the noble Viscount expressed of the competence, organizing ability and skill which have been displayed in the direction of the Eighth Army. It has been. I am sure, of infinite comfort to us all to find that we have men capable of directing the immensely intricate organization of supply and the splendid training and the co-ordinated movement which these magnificent operations of the Eighth Army have necessarily involved. It has been an immense comfort to every one of us; and, as the noble Viscount said, we feel confident that it is a portent of more to come.

What the noble Viscount said about the military position in North Africa was fully justified. Only impatient and unthinking people expect the impossible. Matters have been rendered much more difficult by the weather which we know prevails at this time of the year in that part of Africa, while the distances are so vast that the organization of transport and the making of roads and aerodromes, as well as other preparations, necessarily take time. The British people can never be accused of insufficient patience, after what we have been through in the last three and a half years, and I feel confident that, when the time comes, the First Army, with our American Allies, having gained, as they are gaining, experience every day, will be fit rivals for the triumphant Eighth Army rapidly approaching from another direction.

I am sure that we all join with the noble Viscount in our appreciation of the most remarkable exploits of the Russian Armies. It is not a matter of an Army, but of a series of Armies. I am not myself particularly well versed in the history of war, but I do not recall a co-ordinated movement of many Armies in the face of immense difficulties parallel with that which we have witnessed in Russia during the last few weeks. From the Kuban Plains right up to Leningrad we have had the co-ordinated direction and supply of Armies widely scattered over immensely difficult country, with terrible conditions. We have there something which I think has never been equalled in the history of war. We are all glad that the City of Leningrad has at last been freed.

I had meant to ask the noble Viscount—but he has anticipated my question—whether he had anything to say as to the progress of the anti-U-boat campaign. I think that that in particular is a subject which we might debate more fully without helping our enemy. I hope that some noble Lord who is competent to do so will be prepared to raise it at an early date. So far as the political events in North Africa are concerned my disposition, like that of the noble Viscount, is to say as little as possible at the present moment. Some of us may be thankful that it has not fallen to us to deal with them! I hope, however, that we shall have an opportunity of discussing fairly frankly, and I trust helpfully, some aspects of the U-boat danger, which, as the noble Viscount said, is clearly the biggest danger of all, and the only big danger, it seems to me, which we have still to overcome. I shall not go further now than to indicate that I hope that that opportunity will soon be provided.

We welcome, too, what the noble Viscount said as to the attitude of the Government, in concert with the other Allied Nations, with regard to the barbarities of the Germans in occupied countries. I am sure that we all feel galled by our apparent helplessness when we see these cruelties to the Jews and others. I think, however, that we do look to the Government to give active leadership in the immediate future in the preparation of plans for the feeding of Europe whenever we get the chance to feed it. It will raise immensely difficult questions of supply, food production, food distribution, prices, organization and many other things of that kind, and I am not quite sure whether we all realize how acute and immediate the danger will be as soon as fighting ceases. We have seen something of it in North Africa even in this short time, but that is a mere shadow of what the substance will be over the whole of Europe as soon as hostilities cease. That is another subject which I think your Lordships might usefully discuss in greater detail in the near future. I have indicated some of the thoughts which arose in my mind as I listened to the noble Viscount, and I should like to say again how much we have appreciated his statement.