§ EARL DE LA WARR rose to ask His Majesty's Government, by whom their inquiry into the problems of population is being conducted, what are their terms of reference, and when a Report of their conclusions is likely to be laid before Parliament; and to move for Papers.
§ The noble Earl said: My Lords, some time ago I ventured to raise in your Lordships' House the subject of population, its steady and rapid decline and the effect of that decline on the future of this country, the future of our Empire and indeed, in the long run, the future of the white race as a whole. The feeling of the House at that time was made so very clear that it is unnecessary to burden your Lordships with any more arguments in favour of the urgent consideration of this problem by the Government. In fact, so plain was the feeling that the Government had no alternative but to promise an inquiry. A few weeks later there was a debate in another place, when the promise of inquiry was repeated; but in response to a starred question which I put on the Paper in your Lordships' House the noble Lord, Lord Snell, gave a reply which made it only too clear that we must not hope to hear of anything being done for some considerable time. That naturally caused deep concern to many of us who are interested in the problem.
§ Accordingly I put down a Motion on 3rd November. That was postponed in response to the urgent plea of the Minister 75 and on his firm assurance that if the debate were postponed he would be able in a very short time to make a satisfactory statement. Now there is a new Minister of Health, but the subject is not new to his Department not new to the Government, nor anybody who has thought seriously about the future of this country. Therefore it seemed to me not unreasonable to leave the Motion on the Paper and to hope for a definite reply about the Government's intentions. It may well be that the statement of the Government in response to this Motion will give us everything we want—an inquiry with the status or standing of a Royal Commission—but until that statement is made it is only right that the Government should be aware of the very deep concern of many people in this country at what has hitherto appeared to be their delay and their unwillingness to face the problem. That sense of concern, as I ventured to say during the last debate, was certainly not lessened by the fact that the Minister of Health's chief adviser on this subject—I take it that he is the Registrar-General—last year published a very reassuring report on this subject, but a report which was only reassuring in that he stopped his consideration at the year 1971, when the figures began to destroy the complacent picture which he was building up.
§ Again, only a few weeks, or possibly a month or two, ago, the figures for the birth-rate of 1942 were published, and they showed an increased birth-rate. Those figures were published without any explanation whatsoever, and I suggest that without that explanation they were bound to mislead a great number of people in this country into thinking that this problem of population was going to solve itself. The figures are misleading for the simple reason that if the state of affairs existing in 1942 were to continue for ever, and every child born in 1942 were to continue living, then, at the very best, we would only raise our net reproduction rate from 75 per 100 women of child-bearing age to just under 85, which would mean that in future our decline for generations would be at the rate of 15 per cent, instead of at the rate of 25 per cent. There was no accompanying statement with these figures pointing out that they were due almost certainly to temporary war-time phenomena. All this, I think, makes it doubly important that we should have an immediate state- 76 ment from the Government as to their intention not only about the holding of an inquiry but as to the form that inquiry will take, as to its personnel, and above all as to its time table.
§ This is a difficult and very complex subject, and, certainly, no one wishes to cause the Minister who has to deal with it unnecessary trouble. But the Government must be made to realize that there is too much at stake in relation to the future of this country for them to be allowed to deal with it in any halfhearted manner. It forms the basis of our whole social and economic structure, and above all it forms the whole basis of any future policy, both for defence and for the peopling of this country and of the British Empire.
§ If the present trend is to be reversed by some action taken at the instance of the Government, not only will it be necessary for us to use great energy and courage in tackling the various problems that will have to be tackled, but we shall need a great deal more knowledge than, I believe, is possessed by any of us at the moment. That was very well demonstrated recently by a most interesting correspondence on the subject of population which was carried on in The Times newspaper. It was there made quite clear that the great danger is that every one of us tries to run his own hare. You had the housing expert writing and claiming that if only sufficient houses were provided the question of population would be solved satisfactorily. You had the nutritional expert expressing the view that if only more and better food were provided we should be able to solve the problem. Some thought that family allowances were what was required, and I think that Sir William Beveridge joined in the correspondence on the question of social security. Others came in on the subject of better and different education. Surely, the real truth of the position is that there is no one cause and no one solution. Therefore one's anxiety is that the Government should recognize this in any Commission they set up, and call in to its aid all the best brains on these different subjects. I am sure that the House would appreciate an assurance from His Majesty's Government on that particular matter.
§ Only one further point, my Lords. I would like to have an assurance that 77 those who are planning for the future policy of this country, making plans for more and higher pensions, more schools, new teachers, more houses and, above all, defence, should realize that even now we are committed, by our past neglect of this problem, to certain inescapable facts. We should have them firmly fixed in our minds. For instance, it is almost certain that in 1980 our population will be round about 36,000,000 or 37,000,000, instead of 45,000,000 as it is to-day. We should have it firmly fixed in our minds that a quarter of that population in 1980 will be aver 65 years of age, and fit for the old age pension. The other day the Ministry of Labour and National Service made it clear that as between 1937 and 1951 we were to expect a reduction of no less than 25 per cent, in our young-worker population; and that is taking no account of the raising of the school age and of other alterations which we intend to make. It is very important that we should understand that certain things are unalterable. Thus, the number of people of thirty years of age in 1972 was settled finally last year by the birth-rate of 1942. That cannot be altered; we cannot possibly go back on it.
§ I should like to sum up the remarks which I have ventured to make. If there is to be appointed a Committee, or, as some of us suggested in the last debate in your Lordships' House on this subject, a Royal Commission, that body would seem to have three main lines on which it must proceed. Firstly, it must elucidate the facts, figures and nature of this problem; secondly, it must make recommendations as to how to remedy the existing trend of our population to decline; and thirdly, it must report on what modifications may be necessary in our policy for the future in the light of certain facts which, by virtue of what has already happened, must be true whatever action we take with regard to the future. I beg to move.
§ THE PARLIAMENTARY UNDER-SECRETARY OF STATE FOR THE COLONIES (THE DUKE OF DEVONSHIRE)My Lords, I hope that I shall not stop any noble Lord who may wish to address your Lordships on this subject from doing so later, but it may be for the convenience of your Lordships if I intervene at this stage, because I have a pronouncement of some importance to make. We shall all 78 agree that the noble Earl has performed a very real and definite service by his persistence in calling attention to this vital subject. The prospect of a declining and an ageing population is one which must cause grave concern not only to His Majesty's Government but to every thoughtful citizen. Your Lordships will probably remember the weighty words of the Prime Minister, when he said in a broadcast not long ago that one of the most sombre anxieties which beset those who look thirty, forty or fifty years ahead is this same question. I think that the note of sharp urgency which the noble Earl brought into his speech was valuable and timely. It is, of course, difficult to see clearly so far ahead as the periods with which we are concerned, especially in times like these; but, as the noble Earl very justly said, the numbers of people of thirty years of age thirty years ahead are settled now. But, again quoting the Prime Minister, one can see only too clearly that in thirty years, unless some radical alteration occurs, a smaller working and fighting population will have to support and protect nearly twice as many old people, and in fifty years the position will be worse still.
I do not propose to cover again the ground covered in our recent debate. I think that that debate showed very clearly that your Lordships are aware of the extraordinary complexity of this problem. I welcomed very much the words in which the noble Earl indicated its complexity, and the dangers of easy generalizations. No part of this problem is simple, not even the assembly of the bare facts. For some aspects of the problem we have to go a very long way back; for some we have to peer a very long way forward; and, in order to have proper means of considering the problem, we have to consider the records and the vital statistics of other peoples as well as of our own. We must try to make sure, if we can, by looking at the ebb and flow of population, whether the tendency which is so menacing to-day conforms to any pattern in the history of the human race, a pattern which may give us clues to the causes, to possible consequences and to possible remedies.
The search for causes is still more complicated. On the surface lie matters of personal habit and outlook in all their intimacy. Behind them may lie, and 79 almost certainly do lie, factors deep in our social and economic life, some of them enduring and some of them transitory. There are important medical factors, too, as well as nutritional factors. Still further back there may be deep-seated biological causes, and in the last resort there may be factors which we can all agree to call spiritual. As for the consequences, although some of them may be obscure, the obvious ones carry direct threats to our nation and Empire, and they make the search for remedies a direct and unavoidable duty of the Government. Your Lordships need not be told that the remedies are not likely to be simple. They will depend very largely on the results of the diagnosis, on the assembly of facts and on the assessment of causes. The whole subject—and here again I am in entire agreement with the noble Earl— demands the mobilization of expert knowledge, the common sense of the common man and the common woman, and the vision of the statesman.
Inquiry must come first. His Majesty's Government announced their intention some time ago to institute an inquiry on the broadest possible basis into the whole question of birth-rate and population. That was announced in July. Since then a great deal of work has been done, and as a result I am now in a position to inform your Lordships of the Government's decision on the form which the inquiry shall take. In the first place, it has been decided to set up a Royal Commission with the following terms of reference:
To examine the facts relating to the present population trends in Great Britain; to investigate the causes of those trends and to consider their probable consequences; to consider what measure, if any, should be taken in the national interest to influence the future trends of population; and to make recommendations.I hope your Lordships will agree that those terms are comprehensive enough and at the same time precise enough. I am very happy to be able to announce that the Lord Chancellor has consented to accept the Chairmanship of this Commission. I think the mere fact that the Lord Chancellor should be the Chairman is an indication of the immense importance which the Government attach to this subject. I think I am right in saying that it is only rarely that very important members of the Government have been Chairmen of Royal Commissions. There 80 was the case of Lord Haldane who when he was an important Cabinet Minister, presided over a Royal Commission on University Education. I think the fact that so important a member of the Government has been asked to preside does indicate clearly enough that the Government think this matter one of vital importance. The names of the other members of the Commission will be announced as soon as practicable.The Government have also decided that because of the complexity of the subject and of the highly technical content of some aspects of it, it will be necessary to assist the Commission by setting on foot certain special inquiries of a technical kind. The exact scope and character of these investigations will be determined in consultation with the Chairman of the Commission. But it will be clear to your Lordships that there are at least three broad heads under which the technical issues must be examined. Later on it may turn out that there are others, but there are at least three. There is first the statistical group. This, as your Lordships will be aware, is not a matter of the simple collection of figures and calculation. It involves a high degree of expert knowledge to sift the various statistical factors, to assess their significance and to project them into the future. It will be an enormous advantage to the whole inquiry to have these factors examined and presented by an expert group.
So with the medical and biological factors. These of course are highly technical; they are also very diverse, ranging from immediate physiological conditions that may interfere with fertility to remote biological factors that may have very far-reaching and deep-seated causes. But in spite of this diversity it has been thought that on the whole it is advisable to allocate the work of technical inquiry under this head to one group which can, if necessary, divide itself up to consider the various technical details. There are also the economic factors—what part they have played in population trends, the part they may still be playing, and what may be the effects of the population trends on our economic life in the future. There are obviously many matters for technical inquiry in that field too, and there may well be other matters which call for technical inquiry; but on these three, the statistical, the medical and 81 biological, and the economic, the Commission will have the advantage of the best expert advice that can be obtained.
The result of these inquiries will be made available to the Commission as soon as possible. In the meantime it is hoped and expected that the Commission will find it possible to explore and take evidence upon the more general issues. It is proposed to proceed with the whole inquiry—the Royal Commission and the technical investigations—with all possible speed; but your Lordships will understand that with the momentous issues involved, all parts of the work will have to be done with the utmost thoroughness, and the utmost thoroughness is not compatible with quick results. But I can assure your Lordships that the Government are seised of the enormous importance of this subject and intend to tackle it with the utmost possible speed and the utmost possible earnestness.
§ LORD ADDISONMy Lords, I am sure we should like to associate ourselves with what the noble Duke has said in paying a tribute to the perseverance— which is characteristic, I may say—of the noble Earl who has brought this subject before your Lordships more than once, and to congratulate the noble Earl upon the result so far. We welcome the appointment of this Royal Commission, and we are glad that we have had the opportunity of hearing the announcement which has just been made, the more so that the Government have recognized its immense importance by appointing one of their senior members to be the Chairman. I may be allowed to express the hope that the noble and learned Viscount will see to it not only that the results of the work of the Commission are worthy of its constitution, but that the Commission is not unduly delayed in its activities. The subject is so wide that I think I will follow the example of the noble Duke in not saying anything about the different aspects of it which he suggested. But I hope that the inquiries which will be instituted will he under the guidance and inspiration of the Commission itself. I am a little apprehensive that the procedure announced just now—the mention of three or four branches of inquiry—might take a very lone time, and might perhaps not be on the lines that the Royal Commission itself would desire unless the Commission is associated with those inquiries 82 in determining their character and objective from the very start. Otherwise it opens up a vista of delay.
At the same time, I would also express the hope that, in view of the numerous interests and far-reaching issues which may be opened up by the investigations, the Royal Commission will see that the inquiries are not too prolonged, and that they do not reach further afield into humanity's future than is necessary for the urgent work of the Royal Commission itself. It will be very tempting, I can well believe, for a body of experts with the kind of remit that the noble Duke has mentioned, to spread themselves very widely and to take up a great deal of time. I therefore hope, and I am sure we expect, that the noble and learned Viscount who is to be the Chairman will see to it that the inquiries are kept within the scope necessary to enable the Commission to get on with its work with due rapidity. There can be no subject that is of more vital national importance. That is obvious, and those of us who are members of large families—as many of us are—and have struggled through successfully in the battle of life are perhaps not so sympathetic with modern habits as some others. These personal prejudices, I have no doubt, will be kept duly in the background, but I do hope that the social habit which, I am quite sure, has a lot to do with the present limitation of births will not be excluded from the cognizance of the Commission. I refrain from making any use of the headings which I jotted down while the previous speakers were addressing us, and conclude by saying how glad we are to hear the announcement that the Government recognize the importance of this subject, as shown by the selection of the Lord Chancellor as Chairman of the Royal Commission, and to wish every success to the Commission itself.
§ LORD GEDDESMy Lords, I shall not detain your Lordships for more than a moment. I really rise to ask a question, but first I should wish to congratulate the noble Earl, who has raised this matter again and again, upon the success which his efforts have to-day attained. I also wish to express my felicitations to the noble Duke who spoke on behalf of the Government that he, amongst all the members of the Government who have shown the greatest interest in this ques- 83 tion, should have had the privilege of making this important and most satisfying announcement. I feel sure there is not one of your Lordships who is not grateful to the Lord Chancellor for undertaking this most responsible, most difficult, and, I am afraid he will find, most laborious task.
The question I rose to ask is this: What is to be the organic connexion between the Royal Commission and the satellite inquiries, as I may call them? Is the Chairman of each of the satellites to be a member of the Royal Commission? because that seems to me to be an important way of linking the two types of inquiring body together. There will, I imagine, require to be several more satellite bodies making inquiries than those already envisaged by the noble Duke, and he himself will be aware probably that that will be the case. Another question, which is of great importance, is this: Are these satellite bodies empowered to conduct research and experiment? What is to be the exact scope of their functions? Are they merely to take evidence, or are they to go out to look for new knowledge to attempt to solve the problems and questions which will arise? These are the two questions on which I hope it may be possible for me to receive a little clarification—first, are the Chairmen of the satellite bodies to be members of the main Commission; and, second, are the satellite bodies to have powers of conducting research and inquiries to obtain new knowledge?
If they are to do that—and I think it is necessary that they should—then some form of interim report is desirable while the research work is being done. Take, for example, the matter raised in that most interesting debate which we had the other day, when Lord Teviot discussed the question of the relation between soil health, plant health, animal health, and human health. That also impinges on this whole question of reproduction and fertility, and there will be need of a great deal of experiment if the matter is to be followed up. I feel that out of this Royal Commission, over which the Lord Chancellor has graciously consented to preside, may arise an organization which I am sure is necessary for a country like this to have—namely, a permanent body steadily investigating the great problems of population and life, because it will be many generations before all the prob- 84 lems can be solved. Having asked these questions, I should like again to congratulate the noble Earl on the success which has attended his efforts.
THE LORD ARCHBISHOP OF YORKMy Lords, I rise only to join with those who have already Spoken in congratulating the noble Earl on the success of his efforts and in expressing the pleasure that we on these Benches feel at the appointment of a Royal Commission to deal with this most important matter. I would urge that in addition to the technical and other matters which have been mentioned, this Commission should take into full consideration the moral and religious aspects of the question. They are as important as the social aspects to which reference has already been made. I hope therefore that this Royal Commission under the Chairmanship of the Lord Chancellor, who, we are so glad to hear, has taken on this arduous post, will be speedily set up, will speedily get on with its work, and will give us a report which may, for a long time to come, afford the most valuable guidance to our people.
§ LORD MOTTISTONEMy Lords, we in this quarter of the House desire to associate ourselves with what has been said in congratulating the noble Earl on the success of his efforts in having induced the Government to take the very strong and satisfactory step of appointing a Royal Commission presided over by no less a person than the Lord Chancellor. We rejoice that this has been done, and we feel particularly proud that the Lord Chancellor should have been chosen for this arduous task and that he has agreed to give his very great talents to the work as Chairman.
§ VISCOUNT MAUGHAMMy Lords, may I add one more word as to the composition of the Royal Commission? It was observed in some quarters during the various debates we have had on this subject, and at certain other meetings with which I am acquainted, that nothing was said on the subject of the views of the female sex. It has come to my knowledge that the ladies have a great deal to do with this topic, and when they hear it discussed by what they reverently describe as "a lot of old gentlemen," they are rather astonished that the views of the women are not more regarded. All I want to say is this. It seems to me 85 that on a topic of this sort, if we want really valuable results from the Royal Commission, a very generous proportion of the members of that Commission should be of the female sex. There are matters, partly social, partly of another kind, which almost entirely depend on the knowledge and experience of working women all over such a country as this. I have been told, for instance, that the mere matter of washing and mending the clothes of little children, especially boys, in working-class homes is in modern days so arduous that it has a great effect upon the limitation of offspring. However that may be, your Lordships will, I think, agree that a fair number of the members of the Royal Commission ought to be women.
§ THE DUKE OF DEVONSHIREMy Lords, by permission of the House, I can answer very briefly the questions which were asked by the noble Lord opposite (Lord Geddes) and the noble Viscount who has just spoken. The number and need of the technical inquiries will be settled in consultation with the Chairman of the Royal Commission, and so will the terms of reference and the scope of inquiry of these various technical Committees. The Chairman of the Royal Commission is fully alive to the importance of securing proper co-ordination, and the whole idea of these technical inquiries is that they shall assist the Royal Commission. Your Lordships may have every confidence that they will be directed to that purpose by the Chairman, who is fully capable of organizing an inquiry of this kind. The noble Lord also asked whether the Chairmen of these assistant Committees will be members of the Royal Commission. I can assure him that it is proposed that they should be. I can also assure the noble Viscount who has just spoken that the importance of women on this Royal Commission has been fully recognized, and women will be very fully represented on it.
§ EARL DE LA WARRMy Lords, in rising to withdraw this Motion I should like to add to what the noble Lord, Lord Geddes, has already said in expressing what I am sure was the pleasure of the whole House that it was the noble Duke, the Duke of Devonshire, who made this announcement. He has for years given thought and work to this problem; indeed it is right to say that the Report of the 86 Oversea Settlement Board of which he is Chairman is part of the serious literature on this subject. I would like also to emphasize what has been expressed before—namely, our gratification that the noble and learned Viscount the Lord Chancellor has accepted the Chairmanship of this important body. I rather think that in my speech I ventured to use the words "elucidate the facts and figures of this problem." I think we would all agree there is nobody in the country with a greater power of elucidation and greater clarity of mind than the noble and learned Viscount on the Woolsack. Finally, might I venture to congratulate the noble and learned Viscount, Lord Maugham, on his startling and revolutionary statement that women have something to do with this matter, and to express what I am sure is the pleasure of the House at the answer of the noble Duke to the effect that women will be fully represented on this Royal Commission? I beg leave to withdraw the Motion.
§ Motion for Papers, by leave, withdrawn.