Commons Sitting of 27 November 1980

Preamble
The House met at half-past Two o'clock
PRAYERS
[MR. SPEAKER in the Chair]
Oral Answer to Questions
  Northern Ireland

    Newry Canal
    Mr. J. Enoch Powellasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland whether he has any plans for taking the Newry canal into public ownership.
    The Under-Secretary of State for Northern Ireland (Mr. Giles Shaw): The Newry canal is owned by the Newry Port and Harbour Trust. Since 1971, the affairs of the trust have, however, been in the hands of a liquidator appointed by the Department of Commerce for Northern Ireland.
    Mr. Powell: Does the Minister recognise that like other ancient monuments of public importance this unique monument of engineering, which is older by 30 years than any other canal in the British Isles and is of interest on the European scale, can be properly preserved and used for leisure, employment and tourism only if it is in public ownership?
    Mr. Shaw: I note the right hon. Gentleman's strong advocacy of public ownership in this undoubtedly unique instance. The right hon. Gentleman will recognise that the trust was appointed by a public authority, that it is now in the hands of a liquidator appointed by a public authority and that, therefore, it is close to being in public ownership. I understand the right hon. Gentleman's strong feelings about the development of the canal. The recent report by Enterprise Ulster is still being considered.

    Law and Order
    Mr. Molyneauxasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland whether he will report progress on the enforcement of law and order in Northern Ireland.
    Mr. Michael McNair-Wilsonasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make a statement about the activities of the security forces.
    The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland (Mr. Humphrey Atkins): The overall level of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland has continued to decline. The general improvement is due in large measure to the continuing efforts of the security forces. The role and capabilities of the Royal Ulster Constabulary, with continuing military support where necessary, are being steadily expanded.
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    Since I last answered questions in the House on 7 August, 194 people have been charged with crimes associated with terrorism. This includes 19 charged with murder and 12 with attempted murder. In addition, 63 weapons and 14,848 rounds of ammunition have been recovered.
    Co-operation between the security forces in Northern Ireland and those of the Republic of Ireland continues to be very satisfactory. There has been a number of notable arrests and discoveries of arms and munitions in the Republic.
    Nevertheless, terrorist activity continues and there has been some increase in the number of sectarian attacks. Since 7 August, 21 people have died, including six members of the security forces. It appears that three of the civilian victims may not have been the intended targets of the terrorists. This shows, once again, the total lack of concern for human life by the terrorists. The police are investigating all these crimes and five people have already been charged in connection with these murders.
    Mr. Molyneaux: Does the Secretary of State agree that the enforcement of law and order is made much more difficult by the activities of those who are engaged in giving credibility to the claims, boasts and threats of various criminal organisations?
    Mr. Atkins: The claims and boasts of the prohibited organisations ring hollow. The people of Northern Ireland are equipped as well as, if not better than, most people to withstand the threats that are made against them.
    Mr. McNair-Wilson: I welcome the further decline in the level of terrorism and the continuing ascendancy of the police as guardians against criminal activities and terrorism. May we have an assurance that there will be no precipitate rundown of Army strength in the Province as suggested in a recent story in The Daily Telegraph, particularly in view of the current tension and the prison officers' strike?
    Mr. Atkins: I can give the House that assurance. The level of military strength in the Province is kept continuously before me, the GOC and the Chief Constable. The Government's policy is to retain in Northern Ireland only that level of military support for the RUC which is necessary. We do not want more than is necessary. Equally, we shall be sure not to have less.
    Mr. Fitt: In the enforcement of law and order, will the Secretary of State bear in mind that running parallel with the bloody campaign of the IRA is an equally dangerous campaign being waged by the UDA and Loyalist paramilitary forces in which innocent Catholics have been killed and more have been wounded in recent weeks? May I draw the right hon. Gentleman's attention to the television programme "World in Action" on Monday evening in which a so-called leader of the Ulster Defence Association threatened the Catholic population in Northern Ireland? Is he aware that that broadcast caused a great deal of fear? Will the he ensure that the law and the enforcement of law are seen to be even-handed against all potential murderers, no matter who they claim to represent?
    Mr. Atkins: I entirely agree with the hon. Gentleman. Terrorist activity, whatever its motive, is to be deplored. It is the business of the RUC to act against terrorists whoever they are. It is seeking to carry that duty out and, as the days go by, successfully carrying it out.
    Mr. Kilfedder: Does the Secretary of State recall the representations that I made urging that a campaign medal be awarded to the police? Is he now in a position to make a statement, bearing in mind that the RUC and the RUC Reserve, who have suffered grievous casualties, deserve recognition for their courage, impartiality, skill and patience?
    Mr. Atkins: I entirely agree with the hon Gentleman's comments about the RUC. He and other hon. Members have represented to me that there should be a campaign medal. It is a matter that I am pursuing, but I am not yet in a position to make a statement.
    Mr. McCusker: If the situation and co-operation are as good as the Secretary of State implies, how is it that two nights ago six armed thugs crossed from the Republic to Northern Ireland, held a family at gunpoint, commandeered a car, drove 12 miles, set up an ambush, killed a member of the Ulster Defence Regiment, drove back 12 miles and escaped undetected into the Irish Republic?
    Mr. Atkins: What I said in my original answer, and what I stick by, is that the situation is steadily improving. I did not claim that it was as good as it should be. It is not. The hon. Gentleman and the House know that very well. With regard to the hon. Gentleman's statement, if he has evidence to support what he said, I beg him to give it to the RUC so that charges can be made.
    Mr. Peter Robinson: Is the Secretary of State aware of the utter revulsion and outrage in the Northern Ireland community at the recent killings? Will be assure the House that, now that his policy is seen to have failed, he will review it urgently?
    Mr. Atkins: The hon. Gentlemen claims that the policy has failed. I do not know by what standards he measures success or failure. I repeat that steadily the security forces, led by the RUC, are getting on top of the terrorist activity. Terrorist activity still continues, but the result of the security forces' work shows that they are having more success. I therefore believe that the hon. Gentleman's claim that the policy is not succeeding is quite unfounded.
    Mr. McCusker: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. In view of the unsatisfactory nature—
    Mr. Speaker: If the hon. Gentleman puts his point of order, he will merely stop me from calling the Front Bench spokesman.
    Mr. John: Has there not been disappointment in the enforcement of law and order over the dismissal of the prosecutions brought in the Republic under the cross-border jurisdiction Acts? Has the right hon. Gentleman undertaken to study the matter? Will he, for example, discuss it with the Government of the Republic with a view to setting up a joint law commission to examine how that jurisdiction can be strengthened in order to bring satisfactory convictions where proper?
    Mr. Atkins: It is not for me to comment on the decisions of courts, whether they be British or Irish. I take encouragement from the fact that the authorities in the Republic have used the provisions of the cross-border legislation to bring those charges. Of course, we are disappointed that the charges were dismissed, but I hope
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    that the fact that the authorities have used legislation is an indication that they will use it again. Indeed, we are discussing with them how we can best proceed.
    Mr. McCusker: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. In view of the unsatisfactory nature of the reply that I received to my supplementary question, I give notice that I shall seek to raise the matter at an early opportunity on the Adjournment.

    Prisons (Hunger Strikes)
    Mr. Nicholas Wintertonasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make a statement on the current hunger strike being carried out by prisoners of Her Majesty's prison, Maze.
    Mr. Altonasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make a statement on the hunger strikes in Northern Ireland prisons.
    Mr. Humphrey Atkins: Seven prisoners in Maze prison commenced a hunger strike on Monday 27 October in support of the campaign for political status for certain convicted prisoners. They continue to refuse the food offered to them but are taking salt and water. On 6 November, the prisoners were moved from the cells which they had fouled to clean cells. They are medically examined daily and they have lost some weight, but their condition is not at present giving serious cause for concern.
    The prisoners will continue to be kept under close medical surveillance and will be offered any medical treatment that may be necessary. This will be on the judgment of the doctors in charge, acting in accordance with the ethics of their profession. Medical treatment is not forced on a prisoner who refuses it.
    The Government have repeatedly made it plain that they will not be blackmailed by this hunger strike or any other form of protest into conceding that the motives for which the protesters committed serious crimes entitle them to treatment different from that of other criminals.
    Mr. Winterton: Will my right hon. Friend accept that I am grateful to him for his very full and detailed reply? However, has he noticed the early-day motion on the Order Paper in the name of the Leader of the Official Unionist Party, indicating that the House will not tolerate the authorisation of filming and televising people found guilty of very serious crimes?
    Will my right hon. Friend indicate to the House whether it was on the authorisation of himself and his Department that Independent Television went into the Maze prison to interview one of the convicted people? Will be accept it from me that that it is a most intolerable situation and completely counter to the views expressed by the Prime Minister when she said that no political credibility would be given to those people?
    Mr. Atkins: I can do no better than remind my hon. Friend of what the Prime Minister said in this House on Tuesday:
    "the Government have absolutely nothing to hide about the Maze prison or about their attitude to those on hunger strike."—[Official Report, 25 November 1980; Vol. 994, c. 488.]
    The inside of the Maze prison and what has been going on there has been seen on television, and hon. Members and the public can judge for themselves. A number of newspapers, particularly in Northern Ireland, have commented that that has done no harm. It has brought to

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    the notice of the public the nature of the claims that have been made by the prisoners. I believe that that is all to the good and supports the Government's case, which we have repeatedly stated in this House and elsewhere.
    Mr. Winterton: But did my right hon. Friend authorise it?
    Mr. Alton: Is the Secretary of State aware that he has the full support of Liberal Members in the House in his refusal to grant special status to political prisoners? However, is he satisfied that the families of prisoners in Northern Ireland are being allowed to visit their relatives in jail? Has the statement of Cardinal Basil Hume, which I am sure the whole House welcomes, been drawn to the attention of the prisoners on hunger strike?
    Mr. Atkins: I am grateful for the hon. Gentleman's expression of support for the Government's position. The families of prisoners are allowed access to their relatives who are in prison. I cannot tell him whether the statement of Cardinal Hume has been drawn to prisoners' attention individually, but I have no doubt that they know about it.
    Mr. Biggs-Davison: Further to the question from the Liberal Bench, may I ask whether Cardinal O'Fiaich has endorsed what Cardinal Hume said in his pastoral letter in condemnation of hunger striking? If so, is not that most welcome, because this is surely no time for equivocation?
    Mr. Atkins: I am not responsible for what Cardinal O'Fiaich says or does, but I have seen reports that Cardinal O'Fiaich was aware of what Cardinal Hume intended to say in his pastoral letter and supported it
    Mr. John: Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that I join him in emphasising that the political status of terrorists from both communities is not a possibility? As we do not want young men to throw away their lives by a campaign, however emotional, that will not achieve that aim, let us all join the right hon. Gentleman in pleading with those who are participating in the hunger strike to abandon it now.
    Mr. Atkins: I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for that expression of support on behalf of the Opposition. I think that everyone in the House realises that the claim for political status is one that no British Government, of whatever complexion, would accede to.
    Mr. McNamara: That is not the point.
    Mr. Atkins: Therefore, the violence in which they are engaged is pointless.

    Constitutional Development
    Mr. Lathamasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland whether he will make a statement on the response to his White Paper on constitutional changes in the Province.
    Mr. van Straubenzeeasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland whether he will make a statement on his current discussions with the political parties in Northern Ireland.
    Mr. McNamaraasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make a statement on his discussions with the leaders of the political parties in the Six Counties.
    Mr. Flanneryasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland what plans he has to hold further discussions with the various legal political groups in Northern Ireland.
    11 Mr. Stanbrookasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make a statement on his proposals for further constitutional development in Northern Ireland.
    13 Mr. Farrasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland what progress he has made in the setting up of a new trial consultative assembly.
    20 Mr. Hal Millerasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland whether he is now in a position to announce a decision and further measures to devolve local government in the Province.
    Mr. Humphrey Atkins: The Government believe that locally elected representatives should have a greater role in the government of Northern Ireland. For the past 18 months we have been seeking an acceptable basis for a transfer of responsibilities. We have published two Command Papers, we have held a political conference, and I have had extensive discussions with political leaders and other groups. But we have had to conclude that there is not sufficient agreement between the political parties to justify the Government bringing proposals to the House for setting up a devolved administration at this stage. In the words of paragraph 64 of Cmnd. 7950, we shall now explore other ways of making the government of Northern Ireland more responsive to the wishes of the people, and such alternatives could involve a progressive approach to a transfer of powers. The principles enunciated in successive Command Papers will, of course, continue to apply and I shall be consulting the local political parties.
    Several hon. Members—
    Mr. Speaker: Order. I propose to call the seven hon. Members whose questions are being answered.
    Mr. Latham: As it is proving as difficult to reconcile conflicting opinions over the Irish question as it has been since the reign of King Henry II of pious memory, will my right hon. Friend consider a serious alternative to his calculations—namely, that he should continue to do the job himself?
    Mr. Atkins: There is no doubt about that. We must seek to pursue ways of giving the elected representatives a greater role in Northern Ireland. Until that can happen, the Province must be administered. It will continue to be administered as at present.
    Mr. van Straubenzee: My right hon. Friend has mentioned principles. Am I correct in understanding that one of the principles to which he remains committed is that he will seek to make progress towards a solution only in ways that are acceptable to the people as a whole of Northern Ireland?
    Mr. Atkins: Yes. It is clear that no proposals could be hoped to work if they were not acceptable to the people of Northern Ireland. That has been an essential criterion throughout and it remains such.
    Mr. McNamara: Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that there are many who would not accept his definition of the position vis-à-vis those who have been arrested and convicted under the emergency powers legislation? Apart

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    from that, is he prepared to tell the House, the people of Northern Ireland generally and those in the Republic what his attitude is to the statements made by the Taoiseach on the future of Northern Ireland?
    Mr. Atkins: I am not responsible for what the Taoiseach says. We have always accepted the interest of those in the Republic in what goes on north of the border. However, the ultimate decision on the way in which Northern Ireland is governed will be made in the House.
    Mr. Flannery: Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that the past 10 years have revealed that it is impossible for either side—if we look upon them as that—to beat the other side into submission? Does he agree—I am sure that he does—that the answer lies in a political solution? Does he further agree that the hunger strikers are bound to intensify and deepen the conflict and that there could be further killing? Will concessions be made of a political nature to try to prevent that from occurring and to bring on to the horizon a political solution for us all?
    Mr. Atkins: The hunger strikers and those who support them are not in the least interested in political advance. They have made that entirely clear from the word "go". They want something quite different. We shall continue to deal with the situation in the way that I have outlined to the House. In the meantime, it is our belief that it is right for the Government to continue to search for political ways forward.
    Mr. Stanbrook: As the honourable attempt by my right hon. Friend to create by agreement a system of devolved government in Northern Ireland has clearly failed, what is there to stop us from proceeding now with implementing the part of the Conservative election manifesto that promised that in the absence of devolved government one or more regional councils would be established — in other words, a development of the existing local government institutions?
    Mr. McNamara: Half a million people.
    Mr. Atkins: I hope that my hon. Friend will accept that what is necessary is the agreement of the people of Northern Ireland. I am bound to tell him that none of the political parties with which I have been discussing these matters favours that way forward.
    Mr. Farr: May I assure my right hon. Friend that most hon. Members wish him to keep on trying and that, difficult though the task may be in the foreseeable future, eventually the barriers of prejudice on both sides against which he is struggling will succumb and he will be successful?
    Mr. Atkins: I hope very much that my hon. Friend is right. Whether I am successful or not, I intend to go on trying.
    Mr. Miller: As a way of making the administration more responsive to the wishes of the people, will my right hon. Friend consider devolving greater powers or restoring powers to local district councils? Will be bear in mind the need to consider that well in advance of the district council elections that are due to be held next May?
    Mr. Atkins: I am considering all ways forward. I am bound to tell my hon. Friend that there is a substantial body of opinion in Northern Ireland that would regard that step as a disaster. It may be right or wrong. What matters is that that is what it believes.
    Mr. Stephen Ross: Will the right hon. Gentleman accept that the Liberal Bench entirely agrees with his last statement? It would be a disaster to extend powers to local government in Northern Ireland. What are the right hon. Gentleman's views about setting up a small advisory scheme? Has he ruled out any idea of an appeal to the people of Northern Ireland in the form of a referendum in perhaps more settled times?
    Mr. Atkins: I have never ruled out a referendum. However, before one can have a referendum one has to have a proposition to put. We are ready to explore all ways forward in order to make a political advance that the political leaders of Northern Ireland all say they want.
    Mr. Bradford: Will the right hon. Gentleman issue an immediate directive that all communications between his office and the Provisional Sinn Fein should cease forthwith, whether those discussions are centred on the constitution or the hunger strike?
    Mr. Atkins: I have had no contact with the Provisional Sinn Fein since I took office and I have no intention of having any contact now.
    Mr. Stallard: Will the right hon. Gentleman accept that there is no exclusive British solution to the difficulties of the Six Counties? Will he, therefore, embark on immediate and urgent discussions, in the recognition that the Government of the Republic are an essential element in any permanent solution to the problem? Will be embark on discussions with that Government to ascertain whether he can come to an agreement on the future government of the Six Counties?
    Mr. Atkins: I repeat that the Government have recognised throughout the interest of the people of the Republic of Ireland. The fact remains that future constitutional arrangements for the government of Northern Ireland will be decided in this place and nowhere else.
    Mr. John: Will the right hon. Gentleman be a little less coy about what he intends to do now? Does his coyness mean that there is to be another round of consultations with all the parties? If that is so, upon what basis are the consultations to take place and what are to be the options? When the Green Paper was published, the Opposition thought that all the possible options for constitutional advance had been set out somewhere in that document. Has the right hon. Gentleman new proposals? On what basis does he intend to have further discussions?
    Mr. Atkins: In the original paper, which formed the basis of the conference, we set out a variety of approaches. The conference gave us to believe that there might be a way forward in a particular direction that we set out in a more recent White Paper in July. That, unfortunately, has proved not to be the case. Therefore, we shall have to consider other matters — indeed, a variety of other matters. Our object is to make the government of Northern Ireland more responsive to the wishes of the people in Northern Ireland and to involve locally elected representatives in it, which at present they are not.

    Teacher Training Colleges (Belfast)
    Mr. Kilfedderasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make a statement regarding the future of the three sectarian teacher training colleges in Belfast.
    The Under-Secretary of State for Northern Ireland (Mr. Philip Goodhart): No decisions will be made on the future role of any of the teacher training institutions in Northern Ireland until all the comments on the recent Chilver report about the future structure of teacher training there have been received and studied. The closing date for comments is the end of November.
    Mr. Kilfedder: Does not the Minister acknowledge that students who are potential teachers have already come down against sectarian teacher training colleges by enrolling at the education centres of the two universities and the Ulster polytechnic in far greater numbers than at the sectarian teacher training colleges? Does he realise that if he surrenders to the discriminatory demands of the Churches to keep the sectarian colleges in existence at the taxpayers' expense, he will be pandering to an outmoded and reactionary system of teacher training which wishes to keep people in ghettos?
    Mr. Goodhart: As the hon. Gentleman will be well aware, there are genuine and deeply felt differences of opinion in Northern Ireland over religious matters, which necessarily have implications for the structure of the educational system at all levels. My noble Friend will be looking closely at all the representations that are made to him.
    Mr. J. Enoch Powell: What is the justification for recognising the role of the Churches in education in the rest of the United Kingdom while denying it to the people of Northern Ireland?
    Mr. Goodhart: None at all. I agree with the right hon. Gentleman.
    Mr. McNamara: Can the hon. Gentleman amplify the statement which he made in reply to the right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell)? If people really believe that the prime responsibility for the education of their children rests upon the parents, and if the parents take a particular decision with regard to the philosophical and religious environment in which their children should be brought up, surely the State should support that and not deny it.
    Mr. Goodhart: I do not think that I can expand further on my remarks to the right hon. Gentleman.
    Mr. Pendry: I recognise some of the forceful arguments of the Chilver report on amalgamation, but does not the Minister accept that both the Roman Catholic and Presbyterian church leaders have expressed some doubts about the implementation of those proposals? Will be assure the House that there will be no forced merger on purely economic grounds? Will be proceed to announce the 1981 intake figures, lest he be considered to be prejudging this issue?
    Mr. Goodhart: I cannot give the precise intake figures, but for the last seven years the proportion of students entering the two colleges in question has remained constant. I have every reason to think that the number will remain at about the same level in the coming year. I entirely accept that this matter should not be decided on wholly economic grounds.

    De Lorean Cars Limited
    12 Mr. Cryerasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make a statement on the progress of De Lorean Cars Limited.
    Mr. Giles Shaw: The buildings required for the company's manufacturing programme have been completed, the company has occupied them and the process of equipping them is well advanced. Four hundred and eighty-eight people are now employed. The pilot production programme is proceeding, and 30 preproduction cars have been completed. Series production will commence before the end of the year and the market launch is expected to take place in the spring of next year.
    Mr. Cryer: Was not car production promised last summer? Was not the entire development of the De Lorean car at the expense of the taxpayer? Will the Minister confirm that the ownership of the developed car remains in the hands of the De Lorean research partnership? Can he produce convincing evidence to disprove the fact that this is no more than a device to line the pockets of the entrepreneurs promoting the project, no matter how welcome jobs in West Belfast are?
    Mr. Shaw: It is quite true that there have been some delays in the production programme, and I have made that clear to the House on previous occasions. I do not accept the hon. Gentleman's suggestion that what is involved is designed to line the pockets of the promoters. I remind him that the business of the De Lorean research partnership was to design, develop and license for manufacture and sale the DMC 12 car, and the partnership granted an exclusive licence to the De Lorean company. It is our intention to ensure that the project proceeds to market.
    Mr. Alan Clark: When did my hon. Friend last visit the production line, if there is such a thing?
    Mr. Shaw: I must confess that I have not visited the production line in recent weeks. However, I should like to invite my hon. Friend to accompany me at the earliest opportunity, within the next two weeks, so to do.
    Mr. Adley: Is my hon. Friend aware that for once I am in agreement with the hon. Member for Keighley (Mr. Cryer), in that the more one looks at this project the harder it is to work up much enthusiasm for it? Why has it been necessary to subcontract some of the engineering work to Lotus cars? How much of the money that was allocated for jobs in Northern Ireland has found its way into the Lotus car company?
    Mr. Shaw: The financing of this company has taken place wholly within Northern Ireland on buildings and arrangements for production. It was always intended that the development of this car should take place where it could best be done. The inclusion of Lotus as the design consultant and developer is surely a mark of substantial favour towards the development of this project.
    Mr. Pendry: Is not the Minister aware that, since his answers on the previous occasion, De Lorean has doubled its work force and met its deadline? Does he not agree that the spirit among the work force is first class and that nothing in the House should be said to dampen the enthusiasm of one of the few successful industrial stories in Northern Ireland?
    Mr. Shaw: I accept with thanks the hon. Gentleman's comments. I believe that enthusiasm in the House must largely be contained until such time as many thousands of De Lorean motor cars are sold in the United States.

    Political Discussions
    14 Mr. Parryasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland when next he expects to pay an official visit to Northern Ireland to discuss the current situation with local leaders.
    Mr. Humphrey Atkins: I spend part of each week in Northern Ireland and frequently have meetings with local political leaders and other representatives of the community. I spent Monday and Tuesday of this week in Northern Ireland and I shall be returning there tomorrow.
    Mr. Parry: Does the right hon. Gentleman have any plans to meet the Irish Congress of Trade Unions to discuss the appalling level of unemployment in Northern Ireland, which is even greater than that on Merseyside? When he does meet the ICTU, will be be able to put forward proposals in order to reduce that level of unemployment? Is the right hon. Gentleman also aware that in Liverpool on Saturday we hope to gain the support of the unemployed from Northern Ireland in opposing the vicious unemployment situation in the United Kingdom?
    Mr. Atkins: I met members of the Northern Ireland committee of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions who serve on the Northern Ireland Economic Council last week. I have no doubt that I shall be meeting them again very soon. As the hon. Gentleman knows, my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Employment has a package of special employment measures, the details of which we shall shortly be announcing in Northern Ireland.
    Mr. Wm. Ross: When the Secretary of State replied to my hon. Friend the Member for Belfast, South (Mr. Bradford) a few minutes ago, he denied that he personally had had any contact with Provisional Sinn Fein. Can he now tell the House whether that denial of contact encompasses all those responsible to him and all members of his staff?
    Mr. Atkins: No officials of my Department have contact with representatives of Provisional Sinn Fein.
    Mr. Dalyell: Without anticipating Question No. 19, what are the figures for youth unemployment? How cap anyone expect—
    Mr. Speaker: Order. The hon. Gentleman has given me fair warning.
    Mr. John: When the Secretary of State meets the local industrialists and trade union leaders, will be explain how the Government propose to tackle as a matter of urgency the fact that in Northern Ireland 46 people are now unemployed for every vacancy that exists? Will be assure them that there will not be any juggling of the books, as there was last summer, so that what goes into industrial investment comes off the public sector?
    Mr. Atkins: The allocation of expenditure in Northern Ireland for 1981–82 will be made as soon as possible, and while it will reflect the need to contain total public expenditure it will also reflect the need to cope with the serious unemployment problem in the Province.

    Small Businesses
    15 Mr. Stephen Rossasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland whether he has any plans further to assist small businesses in Northern Ireland.
    Mr. Giles Shaw: I have recently announced an enhanced role for the local enterprise development unit, which already had extensive and flexible powers, to assist the establishment and development of small businesses in Northern Ireland. Under the terms of a new directive issued to the local enterprise development unit by the Department of Commerce last month, its remit has been extended to include assisting service sector projects. In addition, it will be empowered to maintain employment in small companies with good prospects of longer-term viability.
    Mr. Ross: I welcome the Minister's statement about extending the powers of the local enterprise development unit, but does he not agree that the best hope of bringing down unemployment in Northern Ireland is in the small business sector, following the disasters in so much of the larger industry there? Is he prepared to consider helping small businesses in Northern Ireland with rate relief and loan guarantees?
    Mr. Shaw: I accept that the development of small businesses can make a significant contribution to reducing unemployment, but I remind the hon. Gentleman that we must continue to try to bring to Northern Ireland substantial businesses also. With regard to his comment on rate relief and other assistance, the local enterprise development unit has some powers in that area, but I would prefer him to write to me if he has a specific case in mind.
    Mr. Farr: Is my hon. Friend aware that the keystone of small businesses in Northern Ireland is the small farmer? Is he further aware that at present the small farmer in Northern Ireland is in a parlous situation? Will be look into the matter and see what he can do to help?
    Mr. Shaw: I am aware of the considerable difficulties that small farmers and other parts of the agriculture industry in Northern Ireland are currently suffering. Many meetings have been held with the farmers' union on this matter, and there will be further discussions with my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State today.

    Fuel Costs
    16 Mr. McCuskerasked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland what is the percentage difference as at the last calculation in the cost of coal, gas and electricity in Northern Ireland as compared with Great Britain.
    Mr. Giles Shaw: The information is not available in the form requested. Domestic coal prices in Northern Ireland are towards the top end of the range of mainland prices. Piped gas in Northern Ireland costs two to four times as much as in Great Britain, and liquefied petroleum gas supplied in canisters is cheaper in Northern Ireland. Domestic electricity costs 24 per cent. more than the average in Great Britain.
    Mr. McCusker: As the Minister responsible for such matters in Northern Ireland, is not the hon. Gentleman ashamed to announce those figures, particularly bearing in mind that the unemployment rate in Northern Ireland is 16

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    per cent.—twice the national average—that personal incomes in Northern Ireland are three-quarters of the national average, and that consumers in Northern Ireland are denied their share of North Sea natural gas? What plans has the Minister to ensure that energy prices in Northern Ireland do not continue to rise faster than in other parts of the United Kingdom?
    Mr. Shaw: I accept the hon. Gentleman's contention that the present scale of energy prices in Northern Ireland is unacceptable. That is why the Government have instituted a review, particularly of electricity prices, because that represents a larger proportion of the energy costs that are borne by householders in Northern Ireland.
    Mr. Kilfedder: The Minister states that those prices are. unacceptable. Why, then, does he not do something about them immediately, bearing in mind that many old people depend completely on electricity and find it impossible to pay the bills?
    Mr. Shaw: I must remind the hon. Gentleman that we have acted to hold down electricity prices, even to their present level. About £20 million has been spent to that effect during the course of this year.
    Mr. Fitt: In view of the disparity between prices in Northern Ireland and those in the rest of Great Britain, has the Secretary of State taken into account that of all the areas for co-operation between this Government and the Government of the Republic of Ireland, this is one? The Government of the Republic would be anxious to enter into discussions on the question of gas and eletricity prices for the whole of Ireland.
    Mr. Shaw: I accept the hon. Gentleman's point, and I intend to meet the Minister responsible for energy in the Republic within a few days.
    Mr. Pendry: In view of the disparity in energy costs in Northern Ireland and those in the rest of the United Kingdom, has the Minister yet considered the suggestion made by my hon. Friend the Member for Pontypridd (Mr. John) that an overall public body be established to deal with the supply and distribution of all types of fuel in the Province? Will be also consider our suggestion that there should be a full debate on the subject before the Government close all the options without parliamentary approval?
    Mr. Shaw: The committee that has been set up is primarily concerned with electricity distribution and supply. It is not concerned with total energy, although I accept the point that the hon. Member for Pontypridd (Mr. John) raised. I assure the hon. Member for Stalybridge and Hyde (Mr. Pendry) that there should be an opportunity to debate these and allied matters, in co-operation with my right hon. Friend the Leader of the House.

    Prime Minister (Engagements)
    Q1.Mr. Winnickasked the Prime Minister if she will state her official engagements for 27 November.
    The Prime Minister (Mrs. Margaret Thatcher): This morning I presided at a meeting of the Cabinet. In addition to my duties in this House, I shall be having further meetings with ministerial colleagues and others.
    Mr. Winnick: In view of the fact that the House was seriously misled—to put it mildly—by the Chancellor of
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    the Exchequer on Monday, will the Prime Minister tell her Cabinet colleagues that we expect full and correct information to be given to the House? We are still waiting for a statement and an apology from the Chancellor. Will the right hon. Lady say whether even her Cabinet knew about the employers' insurance surcharge? Does not this show that the Government's economic policy is in total confusion and disarray?
    The Prime Minister: I totally reject the charge that my right hon. and learned Friend misled the House. The shape of national insurance contributions was laid down by the Labour Government in the 1975 Act. That Act provided for a review of the percentage contributions and the levels at which they are levied each and every year. In the first year, that review was made and announced to the House by Mrs. Barbara Castle in a written answer on 23 October 1975. In the second year, 1976, it was made and announced to the House in a written answer by the right hon. Member for Norwich, North (Mr. Ennals). In the third year, 1977, it was announced in a written answer by the right hon. Member for Salford, West (Mr. Orme). In the fourth year, it was announced in a written answer, also by the right hon. Member for Salford, West. Last year it was announced in a written answer by my right hon. Friend the Member for Daventry (Mr. Prentice). This year, full details were given in a written answer last Tuesday. This year, the only percentage increases involved were those on employees. Some of the previous written answers have involved percentage increases on employers and employees. In the last few days we have had a show of sheer hypocrisy and humbug from the Opposition.
    Mr. Grylls: Is my right hon. Friend aware that, if she is still looking for further cuts in public expenditure, she could stop the continuous spending by the NEB, which is still running at £50 million a year? Is she further aware that small business does not understand why that spending is allowed and why it is not halted?
    The Prime Minister: I am always prepared to look for further ways of cutting public spending. I understand that there is a Bill before the House. Technically, the British Leyland expenditure still comes under the National Enterprise Board, and we have not yet decided on the future of its corporate plan.
    Mr. Foot: Is the Prime Minister aware of what The Daily Telegraph called the "little matter of £386 million" and what the Daily Mail called "£572 million"? Will the right hon. Lady say whether those precise figures were before the Cabinet when it drew up the package and whether it was able to compare those increases in revenue with the possible cuts or non-cuts? Did she and the Cabinet also agree at the same time that those figures should be left out of the presentation of the package to the House? Will she also tell the House—[Interruption.] We gave the Government an opportunity of making a full statement, but they decided not to do so. Will she also say whether those figures were discussed during the meeting that she had a week before with Sir Terence Beckett of the CBI?
    The Prime Minister: A full statement was made in accordance with precedent—[HON. MEMBERS: "No"]—by means of a full written answer on Tuesday, and it gave the full details. The only change to which my right hon. and learned Friend referred was an increase in the percentage

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    contribution applying to employees. That was the only change. Absolute levels of contribution go up—[HON. MEMBERS: "Answer the question."] I begin to wonder whether the right hon. Gentleman the Leader of the Opposition understands the question that he has asked. The Bill was passed when the right hon. Gentleman was Secretary of State for Employment, and written answers were made when he was Secretary of State for Employment and when he was Leader of the House. The absolute contribution—[HON. MEMBERS: "Answer the question."] I prefer to give a full answer in my own way. The absolute levels of contribution go up every year for three reasons. First, earnings increase and somebody earning £70 last year—[Interruption.].
    Mr. Speaker: Order. Unless right hon. and hon. Members listen to replies, we shall not reach Question 2.
    The Prime Minister: Absolute contributions increase for three reasons. First, they may go up because earnings have increased. That has been taking place for a long time. Secondly, they go up because the limits increase. The limits increase every year, because they bear a specific relation to the single person's pension. Thirdly, the percentage may increase. Earnings and limits are dealt with every year by means of written answers. Usually, the percentages are also dealt with by means of a written answer. My right hon. and learned Friend dealt with the percentage, and the percentage increase—the only difference—attracted the extra £1 billion. The figures were before the Cabinet.
    Mr. Foot: Does the last part of the right hon. Lady's reply confirm that the figures and exact increases were before the Cabinet? Which is the correct figure—the Daily Mail figure of £572 million or The Daily Telegraph figure of £386 million?
    The Prime Minister: The figures before the Cabinet were those due to the change in the percentage—the £1 billion—on employees. The other ones have been dealt with in full, as is customary, in a written answer. The right hon. Gentleman asked me about specific figures for employers' contributions. The employer's contribution—the percentage—did not change. The right hon. Gentleman's Government changed the percentage of the employer's contribution, and they sometimes did so by means of a written answer. We have not done that. The increase in the employer's contribution arises either as a result of increases in earnings—[HON. MEMBERS: "Answer the question."] I am trying to give the figures. If right hon. and hon. Members do not want them, I shall not give them. [Interruption.]
    Several Hon. Members—
    Mr. Speaker: Order. If hon. Members wish to pursue points of order during Question Time, I must inform them that that is not our custom. I shall take points of order at the end of Question Time.

  British Subjects (Iran)
  Q2.Mr. Lathamasked the Prime Minister what progress is being made in bringing about the release of the British subjects detained in Iran.
  The Prime Minister: We take every opportunity to make representations to the Iranian authorities about the
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  four British subjects who are being detained in Iran without having had charges preferred against them. We are in regular touch with the Iranian chargé d'affaires in London. The Swedish ambassador in Tehran, who now acts on our behalf, is pursuing the matter vigorously with senior Iranians. We have recently been able to pass clothing to Miss Waddell and have heard that she and Mr. Pyke are well.
  We are also making continuing efforts to seek the assistance of intermediaries who may be able to help. Sadly, we have so far made little obvious progress. But our efforts will continue until we succeed in securing the release of all those detained.
  Mr. Latham: Although the House understands the exceptional difficulties involved in dealing with Iran at present, will my right hon. Friend give an assurance that the fate of those British subjects, who include three Christian missionaries, will remain an important priority for Her Majesty's Ministers? Will my right hon. Friend also give an assurance that every opportunity is being taken to secure their release?
  The Prime Minister: I am happy to give my hon. Friend those assurances. We take every opportunity to secure their release directly, indirectly, or through intermediaries with whom we are in touch.
  Mr. Dalyell: Has the sanctions policy been effective or helpful to the hostages?
  The Prime Minister: In many ways, the sanctions policy has been effective. The hon. Gentleman can judge as well as I whether it has been helpful to the hostages.

  Prime Minister (Engagements)
  Q3.Mr. Ancramasked the Prime Minister, if she will list her official engagements for Thursday 27 November.
  The Prime Minister: I refer my hon. Friend to the reply which I gave earlier.
  Mr. Ancram: Will my right hon. Friend confirm that during the last month the number of working days lost through industrial disputes was the lowest since 1966 for the month of October? Given that the number of new disputes during the third quarter of this year was the smallest since the war, does it not show that at last there is a growing public awareness that we cannot strike our way to prosperity?
  The Prime Minister: Yes. I am happy to confirm that those figures were published. They are extremely encouraging and show signs of greater realism and moderation in pay claims and settlements. It also shows a greater realisation that we must improve productivity if we are to stay competitive.
  Mr. Faulds: Will the right hon. Lady today seek permission from her husband, when she next has a free weekend, to spend it with me in Smethwick, where I can assure her she would appreciate my attentions and where she could have a long rest from such convoluted non-answers as we have heard from her this afternoon; and where she could also see some of the many factories that she has silenced in my constituency and where I could introduce her to some of the many thousands of people whom she has made unemployed?
  The Prime Minister: The direct answer to the hon. Gentleman's question is:
  "No, no, a thousand times no" etcetera.
  Mr. Cyril D. Townsend: Will my right hon. Friend make clear that, whatever British Rail's financial or over-manning problems may be, neither her constituents in Greater London nor mine will be virtually confined to base after 7.30 at night?
  The Prime Minister: I understand that recent statements have arisen because British Railways are trying to cut costs by reducing the number of trains which, they say, are lightly loaded. They must consider the loading of each train so that they can keep down costs. Apparently, there will be times when trains will stop at stations and when people will be able to get on them. However, there will not necessarily be ticket collectors or staff at the stations. That will not prevent people from travelling on the trains.
  Mr. David Steel: Since Tuesday, has the Prime Minister discovered from the Secretary of State for
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  Industry what he meant by the observation that he made at the weekened to the effect that the Government had lost the first year?
  The Prime Minister: I have not had contact with my right hon. Friend on that point. If I were asked to hazard a guess, I think that he would say that had we cut public expenditure more during the first year, interest rates would have been lower. I point out to the right hon. Gentleman that in cutting public expenditure we have not enjoyed much help from him.
  Sir Graham Page: Will my right hon. Friend make time today to express publicly her anxiety about the activities in Liverpool of a group called the Broad Militant Left and about the possible violence that may result from a rally to be held in Liverpool on Saturday at which the chief rally rouser is to be the Leader of the Opposition?
  The Prime Minister: I am not in any way responsible for the activities of the Leader of the Opposition. I hope that there will be no violence. I doubt whether the march will do any good, particularly in view of the fact that yet again we are having trouble at Halewood.

Business of the House
Mr. Michael Foot: Will the Leader of the House state the business for next week?
The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Leader of the House of Commons and Minister for the Arts (Mr. Norman St. John-Stevas): The business for next week will be as follows:
MONDAY I DECEMBER—Second Reading of the Industry Bill.
TUESDAY 2 DECEMBER—Second Reading of the British Telecommunications Bill.
Motion relating to the National Health Service (Charges for Drugs and Appliances) Regulations.
WEDNESDAY 3 DECEMBER—SeCOnd Reading of the European Assembly Elections Bill.
Motions on the European Community documents 9866/80 and 9198/80 on aids to shipbuilding, and on document 7854/79 on excise duties on beer, wine and alcohol.
THURSDAY 4 DECEMBER—Supply [1st Allotted Day]: debate on the decline of the British engineering industry, on an Opposition motion.
FRIDAY 5 DECEMBER—Debate on the second report form the Select Committee on social services, Session 1979–80 on perinatal and neonatal mortality, House of Commons Paper No. 663, and the relevant Government observations.
MONDAY 8 DECEMBER—Second Reading of the Social Security (Contributions) Bill.
[The following reports of the European Legislation Committee are relevant to debates on European Community Documents:—
Shipbuilding: 45th Report, 1979–80, HC 159-xlv, para. 2; 46th Report, 1979–80, HC 159-Xlvi, para. 2 [The latter report is not yet published, but photocopied proofs are available in the Vote Office];
Taxation of beer, wine and alcohol: 16th Report, 1979–80, HC 159-xvi, para. 7; 33rd Report, 1979–80, HC 159-xxxiii, para. 2; First Report, 1980–81, HC 32-i [The last of these reports has not yet been published, but typescript copies are available in the Vote Office].]
Mr. Foot: Will the Leader of the House give us an assurance for next week—and possibly extend it until the Christmas Recess—that he and his colleagues in the Government will not introduce any major policy statements in reply to written questions, particularly those that the Chief Secretary has said would be more prudent to be made by way of public statements?
Mr. St. John-Stevas: We shall follow the established custom of the House. Both written and oral statements will be made, and it will be a matter of judgment which should be resorted to. I shall ensure that the traditions of the House are maintained.
Mr. Foot: Will the right hon. Gentleman take into account that on at least two or three occasions in recent weeks we believe that the Government have made a gross misjudgment of the requirements of the House in the way in which they have presented statements?
Mr. St. John-Stevas: I note that political judgment, which the right hon. Gentleman is entitled to make. I can only say that I do not agree with him.
Several Hon. Members Several Hon. Members rose—
Mr. Speaker: Order. The House will have noticed that I am having a little trouble with my throat today. I hope that the House will help, because I want to stay in the Chair for the debate today.
Secondly, more than 40 right hon. and hon. Members want to speak in the major debate. Therefore, I propose to allow only 20 minutes for business questions and then to move on.
Sir Bernard Braine: I express the hope, Mr. Speaker, that your voice will be in better shape this evening.
Has my right hon. Friend's attention been drawn to the early-day motion, which I put down today, drawing attention to the health and safety investigation which has revealed that one in three ships entering our ports carrying hazardous cargoes has safety faults?
Is my right hon. Friend aware that at 2 o'clock this morning a tanker caught fire whilst unloading diesel oil at Canvey Island, in close proximity to the homes of 34,000 people, and that there was one fatality? Will my right hon. Friend assure me that a statement on these important matters touching on the safety of a large population and of shipping will be made by the Secretary of State for Trade early next week?
Mr. St. John-Stevas: I have seen my hon. Friend's early-day motion, which he tabled with his usual speed in the interests of his constituents. I shall draw the attention of my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Trade to the dangers to the people of Canvey Island. I assure my hon. Friend that my right hon. Friend will communicate speedily with him.
Mr. Neil Carmichael: Will the Leader of the House have talks with his right hon. Friend the Home Secretary on the possibility of having a pre-legislation Committee — perhaps the Select Committee on home affairs—to discuss any nationality Bill that may be brought before the House? This is obviously a complicated and largely non-party matter, and I think that it would do a great deal of good if we had a pre-legislation Committee to look at it.
Mr. St. John-Stevas: I am interested in the suggestion that the nationality Bill should be put through this new procedure. There are some difficulties, precisely because it is a long and complicated Bill. However, I shall certainly raise the matter with my right hon. Friend.
Mr. John Stokes: Will my right hon. Friend allow time for a debate on the alternative services book, recently introduced into the Church of England, which many people fear may lead to the disappearance of the Book of Common Prayer, which was authorised by the House in 1662?
Mr. St. John-Stevas: I shall certainly consider that matter. I understand that under the rules of the Synod of the Church of England the 1662 Prayer Book remains the official book of the Church of England and is available to parishioners.
Mr. Peter Shore: In view of the conflicting and unsettling reports about statements made by the Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, in the Falkland Islands this week, will the Leader of the House arrange for an early statement to be made to the House? If the Minister of State is on a protracted mission to South America and the Falkland Islands and

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cannot be here to make it, will the right hon. Gentleman raise the matter with one of his senior colleagues to ensure that we have an opportunity to comment on what the Government are proposing?
Mr. St. John-Stevas: As the right hon. Gentleman recognised, the Falkland Islands could not be described as exactly central. I cannot raise the matter with the Minister of State, but I will—[Interruption.] I can answer questions without prompting—raise it with my noble Friend the Foreign Secretary and consult him on the important point made by the right hon. Gentleman.
Mr. Ian Lloyd: Will it be within the discretion of any Standing Committee to adopt what might be called the new hybrid procedure? As the British Telecommunications Bill will be a most appropriate subject for that procedure, will my right hon. Friend be encouraging the Standing Committee to do that?
Mr. St. John-Stevas: All suggestions are gratefully received. I wish that all members of the Government were as enthusiastic for their Bills to go through this new procedure as Members of the House evidently are.
Mr. Reg Race: Has the Leader of the House noticed early-day motion No. 18, standing in the names of more than 100 hon. Members, on the destruction of the school meals service, in particular the disgraceful action being taken by county councils such as Lincolnshire and Dorset and the London borough of Bromley?
[That this House, having noted the assurance given by the Secretary of State for Education and Science during the passage of the Education Act 1980 that he would not abolish the school meals service, deplores his lack of intervention in the recent decisions to reduce the nutritional value of meals, and in some cases to curtail and abolish the provision of a meals service; in particular notes the action of Dorset, Bromley, and Lincolnshire local education authorities is in direct violation of the Secretary of State's undertaking, and calls upon him to renew his pledge and to make plain the Government's opposition to the decisions of Conservative controlled authorities in respect of the school meals service; and further, calls upon the Secretary of State to secure additional resources to prevent the collapse of the school meals service in this country.]
Will the right hon. Gentleman arrange an early debate so that hon Members on both sides of the House may discuss this important question, which affects the lives and working conditions of many people and many thousands of children?
Mr. St. John-Stevas: Of course, it is an important question. Any motion in this House that attracts 100 signatures must obviously be considered seriously. I shall refer the matter to my right hon. and learned Friend the Secretary of State for Education and Science. However, I must point out to the hon. Gentleman that by the will of this House the administration and provision of school meals are now the responsibility of local education authorities.
Viscount Cranborne: Will my right hon. Friend make time to discuss the massacre that is going on in Afghanistan? He will remember that before the Summer Recess I raised this point with him and reminded
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him that this Russian offensive would occur. I hope that he will be able to make time for the House to discuss this very serious matter.
Mr. St. John-Stevas: It is indeed a serious matter. The situation in both Afghanistan and Poland is causing the Government continuing concern. I shall raise the matter as one of urgency with my right hon. Friend the Lord Privy Seal.
Mr. Charles R. Morris: Will the Leader of the House arrange for an early ministerial statement on a residual problem that arises from the imposition of the Government's 6 per cent. pay policy in the public sector? May we have a ministerial statement on the future of the Pay Research Unit, the Pay Research Board, the Armed Forces Pay Review Body, the Review Body on Doctors' and Dentists' Remuneration and the Boyle Commission, all of which are spending their time establishing pay comparability, which the present Government, manifestly will not honour?
Mr. St. John-Stevas: The right hon. Gentleman's questions involve three or four Ministers. I shall draw them to the attention of the appropriate Ministers.
As for the right hon. Gentleman's remarks about a pay policy, perhaps he will forgive me if I correct him and say that it is not a 6 per cent. pay policy but a 6 per cent. cash limit.
Mr. Michael Latham: On the nationality Bill, will my right hon. Friend consider first having a debate on the July White Paper? Is he aware that the people of Gibraltar, in particular, with their very close links with this country, are extremely concerned about the Bill and hope to have their views raised in the House?
Mr. St. John-Stevas: The points that arise under the Bill, which affect many millions of people, can best be raised in this House on Second Reading and subsequently in Committee.
Mr. Tam Dalyell: I raise a modest request, of which notice has been given to the Chancellor's office. Could we have a statement before tomorrow morning's debate on the European budget about the facts in relation to aid in connection with the Italian earthquake disaster, under chapter 59?
Mr. St. John-Stevas: I am very happy to tell the hon. Gentleman about the situation as far as the British Government are concerned. I am sure that we were all deeply distressed to, learn that Italian casualties continue to rise and that the scale of the disaster far exceeds initial estimates. Her Majesty's Government will continue to send what assistance they can to help the Italian people in this tragedy.
So far, we have sent two plane loads, on Tuesday and again yesterday, containing 496 tents, 100 groundsheets and 5,975 blankets. The second aircraft also carried 3,550 blankets and 1,300 knitted blankets supplied by the British Red Cross Society.
A third Government aircraft, carrying 150 double-skinned tents, 14 six-man tents, 1,100 blankets and 380 groundsheets, will leave Luton later today. The aircraft is expected to reach Naples at about 10 o'clock this evening.
I know that the whole House would like to express once again its deepest sympathy with the Italian people.
Mr. Ivor Stanbrook: In view of the wholly unprecedented action of the Secretary of State for

575
Northern Ireland in permitting a television interview with a convicted murderer—who was in flagrant breach of the prison rules in Northern Ireland—so that he could make his case, may we have a statement from the Secretary of State giving his reasons for doing so?
Mr. St. John-Stevas: I cannot give a guarantee that my right hon. Friend will make a statement. He was answering questions in the House earlier today. However, I shall certainly pass on my hon. Friend's anxieties to the Secretary of State.
Mr. Bob Cryer: Will the Minister provide time for a debate, as has previously been requested, on the American presence in this country, the manning and operation of over 100 bases, including the largest underwater establishment outside the United States of America, the operation of a spy base at Menwith Hill, near Harrogate, and the authorisation given to these manoeuvres? Parliament is accountable in this matter. It has never been brought before Parliament, and it ought to be brought before it.
Mr. St. John-Stevas: I am surprised that such a skilled parliamentarian as the hon. Gentleman should not seek to raise this matter during the debate on the Gracious Speech. It would be quite in order so to do. It is not too late. It may be raised this afternoon, if necessary, although there is another subject set down for general debate. Any hon. Member would be in order, I believe, Mr. Speaker, in raising any such subject in the debate.
Mr. Speaker: Yes, but that is not the most helpful reply for me.
Mr. Jack Dormand: Is the Leader of the House aware that the unemployment figures issued this week include the scandalous figure of 168,000 in the Northern region and that that represents a rate of 12·2 per cent., which is the highest in England? In those circumstances, will be arrange a very early debate on the Northern region to discuss the unique problems of that area?
Mr. St. John-Stevas: There will be a number of opportunities to discuss unemployment during this Session, on a variety of occasions. I share the hon. Gentleman's anxiety about the rising rate of unemployment. It would be scandalous if unemployment at that rate remained a permanent feature of our life.
Mr. George Grant: Will the right hon. Gentleman, as a matter of urgency, give consideration to finding time to discuss the ridiculous state of affairs in Northumberland arising from public expenditure cuts? I am talking about life and limb. On snow clearing and preparatory salt spraying, the expenditure figure has been cut from £270,000 to £135,000. The instruction was given that no work on salt spraying or snow clearing was to be done outside normal working hours — nothing at weekends or during the hours of darkness. On the first day of the winter, 25–26 November, there was a spate of accidents, and both roads to Scotland were blocked. Surely the right hon. Gentleman should tell us whether such public expenditure cuts are of paramount importance. Otherwise, he should shut up shop.
Mr. St. John-Stevas: The hon. Gentleman has raised a very important but somewhat detailed point. I shall pass it on directly to my right hon. Friend.
Mr. Sydney Bidwell: As well as arranging ample time to discuss the White Paper on nationality well in advance of the presentation of any Bill to the House, will the right hon. Gentleman also. arrange time to discuss the general question of the current practices of the Home Office in regard to immigration matters? Has he noticed that Prince Charles was harassed in India recently, as a result, mainly, of the virginity testing case, which is gravely afflicting a family in my constituency? We want a reconsideration of the lousy £500 offer in compensation that has so far been made.
Mr. St. John-Stevas: The present Government, and, indeed, their predecessors, have made clear their views on those tests. There will be an opportunity for a full debate on the nationality Bill when it is brought before the House.
As to the visit of Prince Charles to India, I think that the Prince — I think that the hon. Gentleman would agree—dealt with that situation with his usual skill and diplomacy.
Mr. Kevin McNamara: I thank the Leader of the House for the statement that he has just made about the Government's aid to Italy. As secretary of the Anglo-Italian group, I welcome his statement. I hope that the Government will be receptive to any future requests which may come from the Italian Government and will try to help in this terrible disaster.
Having said that, I turn to a question of more immediate interest to myself and my constituents. I am concerned aout the common fisheries policy. May we have an undertaking that the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food will make a statement, in addition to any questions that he may answer next week, on whatever arrangements he makes with regard to the fishing interests of the United Kingdom, that he will ensure that the specific interests of Humberside will be protected and enhanced and that compensation will be given for what we have lost in third country waters in addition to what we envisage we shall lose as a result of a sell-out by the Government on the 100-mile limit?
Mr. St. John-Stevas: The hon. Gentleman is rightly vigilant in the defence of his constituents' interests, but he is somewhat over-pessimistic in prejudging the discussions. My right hon. Friend the Minister of Agriculture has proved a most skilful defender of British interests, including our fishing interests.
I noted that the hon. Gentleman was the first Member to raise the question of the Italian earthquake with my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister earlier this week. I assure him that we shall continue to do all that we can to help the Italian people during this difficult period.
Several Hon. Members Several Hon. Members rose—
Mr. Speaker: Order. I shall call the two hon. Members who still wish to question the Leader of the House, and then we shall have to move on.
Mr. Robert Parry: Will the Leader of the House provide time for a debate on the firemen's pay claim, which I fully support? I raise the question as the hon. Member for the inner areas of Liverpool, which include the docks, the warehousing estate, most of the city hospitals, nearly all the tower

577
blocks of corporation flats and the city shopping areas and department stores. We are concerned about the dispute in Liverpool and we do not want any loss of life. It is important that the firemen's claim be debated on the Floor of the House and also that the Home Secretary be condemned in the light of the assurance that he gave during the general election campaign.
Mr. St. John-Stevas: What is important at the moment is not that we should have a debate in the House but that the negotiations, which have been resumed, should continue. It is my hope that they will come to an early and just conclusion.
Mr. Dennis Canavan: When are we to have a debate on the Government's proposals to close three colleges of education in Scotland? As the Minister responsible for Scottish education has reneged on his promise to issue a consultative document before coming to a final decision on the matter, is not the Leader of the House ashamed to be a member of a Government who include a man whom many in Scotland consider to be a liar?
Mr. Speaker: Order. The hon. Gentleman knows that it is out of order to call any other hon. Member a liar. The House understood what was being said. The hon. Gentleman will withdraw that remark.
Mr. Canavan: In case you misheard me, Mr. Speaker, I merely said that many people in Scotland—
Mr. Speaker: Order. I heard the hon. Gentleman all right. The plain significance of his remarks was that he was calling another hon. Member a liar. If hon. Members can get round our parliamentary standards by implying abuse to someone outside the House, our traditions will fall apart. The hon. Gentleman must withdraw his remark.
Mr. Canavan: If the word "liar" is contrary to parliamentary practice, I am prepared to repeat it outside. Within the House, I shall say that the Under-Secretary of State for Scotland responsible for education is a stranger to the truth.
Mr. Speaker: The hon. Gentleman did that very graciously.
Later—
Mr. Canavan: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. May I have an answer to my question to the Leader of the House about the closure of Scottish colleges of education?
Mr. Speaker: We have passed that.

Harriet Harman
Mr. Alexander W. Lyon: I beg to ask leave to move the Adjournment of the House, under Standing Order No. 9, for the purpose of discussing a specific and important matter that should have urgent consideration, namely,
"the case of the Home Office against Harriet Harman".
Judgment in the case was given this morning and no notice of appeal has yet been entered. Therefore, the matter is not sub judice.
I make my application because the case raised two issues of fundamental importance to the House. The first is the issue raised in the hearing, namely, whether documents produced and read out in full in court can be
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secluded from the public view for further repetition elsewhere, so that open government is frustrated by the action of the courts in narrowing the law of contempt.
Since that undermines the principles on which the new contempt Bill, which is to be discussed in another place in the next few days, is based, it is surely right that this House should have an early opportunity of indicating that that principle violates the understanding that has been reached on where the law of contempt should apply.
Secondly, and perhaps even more important for the House, we should have an early opportunity of discussing the question of who decides whether such a principle should be put before the courts so that judges make a ruling and apply new law rather than the House deciding what the law is. The decision was made not by the Home Secretary or any Minister in the Home Office and not by the Attorney-General or any Law Officer but by civil servants who decided that it was appropriate in this case to go further and enunciate a new rule of law. It does not matter that in the event the puisne judge decided in their favour.
The issue for the House to consider is whether that sort of extension of the law should be under the control of Ministers or their officials. That matter ought to be discussed, whatever the outcome of the case. I hope, therefore, that you, Mr. Speaker, will allow us to have an early discussion by conceding that this is an appropriate matter to discuss under the Standing Order No. 9 procedure.
Mr. Speaker: The hon. Member for York (Mr. Lyon) gave me notice before 12 o'clock, and after the verdict in this case had been announced, that he would seek leave to move the Adjournment of the House under Standing Order No. 9 for the purpose of discussing a specific and important matter that he thinks should have urgent consideration, namely,
"the case of the Home Office against Harriet Harman".
I listened to the hon. Gentleman with concern and care, but I regret to say that his submission does not fall within the provisions of the Standing Order and, therefore, I cannot submit his application to the House.

National Insurance Surcharge
Mr. Bob Cryer: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. I understand that the official Opposition have asked for a statement from the Government on the national insurance surcharge. The Government have refused to make such a statement. That is not a matter for you, Mr. Speaker, though it is a disservice to the House.
Under Standing Order No. 8(3), you, Mr. Speaker, have the power to allow questions relating to matters
"of an urgent character, and relate either to matters of public importance or to the arrangement of business."
Will you allow a number of questions to the Chancellor of the Exchequer under that Standing Order? It is one thing for the Chancellor to take part in a debate where he decides whether to allow any hon. Member to intervene and you, Mr. Speaker, and other occupants of the Chair will protect him from interventions to which he does not wish to give way, but it is quite another matter for the right hon. and learned Gentleman to make a statement, so that hon. Members can use their right, when called, to ask questions.
Since so many questions raised by my right hon. Friends the Leader of the Opposition and the Deputy

579
Leader about the different views of the national insurance surcharge are still unresolved and no satisfactory answer has been given, I suggest that you, Mr. Speaker, allow the Chancellor of the Exchequer to begin our business by making a statement.
Mr. Speaker: I allowed the hon. Gentleman to pursue his point, but if he looks more carefully at the Standing Order he will see that such an application ought to be made before 12 o'clock.
Mr. Christopher Price: On a point of order Mr. Speaker—
Mr. Speaker: Before taking the point of order, I should like to inform the hon. Gentleman that I have an enormous list of hon. Members who are hoping to speak today. Mr. Christopher Price.
Mr. Price: I do not want to delay the House. I think it is important that the House should be clear about the facts. My hon. Friend referred to Standing Order 8(3) on page 16—
Mr. Speaker: Order. I can see that the hon. Gentleman is trying. I do not propose to allow such questions. The House is ready, I believe, to come to the debate.

National Insurance Surcharge

  BALLOT FOR NOTICES OF MOTIONS FOR MONDAY 15 DECEMBER
  Members successful in the ballot were:

  Mr. Gavin Strang

  Mr. Michael Hamilton

  Mr. Nigel Spearing

  BILLS PRESENTED
    LOCAL GOVERNMENT (MISCELLANEOUS PROVISIONS) (SCOTLAND)
    Mr. Secretary Younger, supported by Mr. Malcolm Rifkind, Mr. Alexander Fletcher and Mr. Nigel Lawson, presented a Bill to make further provision as regards local government in Scotland; to amend the Housing (Scotland) Acts 1966 to 1980; to postpone the effect of certain provisions of the Education (Scotland) Act 1980; and for connected purposes: And the same was read the First time; and ordered to be read a Second time tomorrow and to be printed [Bill 5].
    FISHERIES
    Mr. Secretary Walker, supported by Secretary Sir Keith Joseph, Mr. Secretary Younger, Mr. Secretary Edwards, Mr. Secretary Atkins, Mr. Secretary Nott, Mr. Alick Buchanan-Smith and Mr. Jerry Wiggin, presented a Bill to establish a Sea Fish Industry Authority with the duty of promoting the efficiency of the sea fish industry in the United Kingdom; to provide financial assistance for that industry; to amend the law relating to the regulation of sea fishing; to make new provision in relation to fish farming; to amend the enactments relating to whales and the importation of live fish; and to repeal section 5(3) of the Fishery Board (Scotland) Act 1882: And the same was read the First time; and ordered to be read a Second time tomorrow and to be printed [Bill 6].

  STATUTORY INSTRUMENTS, &c.
  Ordered,
  That the draft Apple and Pear Development Council (Amendmant) Order 1980 be referred to a Standing Committee on Statutory Instruments, &c.—[Mr. St. John-Stevas.]

Orders of the Day

  Debate on the Address
  [Sixth Day]
  Order read for resuming adjourned debate on Question [20 November]
  That an humble Address be presented to Her Majesty, as follows:
  Most Gracious Sovereign,
  We, Your. Majesty's most dutiful and loyal subjects, the Commons of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in Parliament assembled, beg leave to offer our humble thanks to Your Majesty for the Gracious Speech which Your Majesty has addressed to both Houses of Parliament.—[Mr. van Straubenzee.]
  Question again proposed.

  Industry and the Economy
  Mr. Speaker: The Privy Councillors who have indicated to me that they wish to speak will understand that I follow Mr. Speaker Selwyn Lloyd's rule, or custom, of not calling two Privy Councillors from the same party immediately after each other. This means that some, I am afraid, will have to wait for a long time.
  4.2 pm.
  Mr. Denis Healey: I beg to move, at the end of the Question, to add:
  but humbly regret that Her Majesty's Government is maintaining economic policies which are ruining great sections of British industry, have produced the greatest fall in output and employment since the Thirties and offer no prospect of improvement in the foreseeable future.
  I must start, I fear, by expressing my surprise and regret that the Chancellor of the Exchequer has not thought fit to make a statement about the circumstances in which, voluntarily or involuntarily, he misled the House on Monday. I shall ask him some questions about this later in my speech, and I hope that he will answer them in his speech and not by written reply.
  We now witness the complete collapse of the Government's economic policy as the Government laid it down 18 months ago and described it in the last Budget. The policy was never directed to the real economy but wholly to certain monetary and financial objectives. The Government aimed to sacrifice everything else to the control of the growth in the money supply, believing that this was the only thing that a Government can control. In the last eight months, however, sterling M3, the measure of the money supply the Government have chosen, has been growing at a rate over twice the target set for it in the Budget. The public sector borrowing requirement, the other totem pole of the Government's policy, has also been growing at twice the rate set in the Budget. The Chancellor of the Exchequer did not pretend on Monday that the measures he then announced would bring either of them back to its target by the end of the financial year.
  Meanwhile, public expenditure, which the Government undertook to cut, is higher this year than at any time for the past four years. According to the Chancellor on Monday, it will be ½ per cent. higher next year than was planned for this year, although he told us in the Budget Statement that it should be 1 per cent. lower next year than was planned for this year. He let us know on Monday that
  582
  the public sector borrowing requirement will, at the end of this year, be at least £3 billion higher than the target set in the last Budget, even if he increases taxes in his next Budget by £2 billion to £3 billion, as he appears determined to do.
  It was no surprise to read in the Financial Times yesterday:
  "The City concluded yesterday that the Government has effectively lost touch with its medium-term strategy, and that left the financial markets floundering."
  The Secretary of State for Industry—we are used to him moaning about his past sins—was uncharacteristically cheerful when he said the other day that the Government had wasted their first year. By their own test, they have wasted their first two years and are at risk of wasting their third.
  The Prime Minister, however, put a different gloss on the Government's performance in an interview yesterday. She said:
  "Of course, if you are going from A to B, you do not always necessarily go on a total straight line. There are sometimes obstacles in your way. You might just have to deviate just a little bit—but not blown off course in any way."
  The Prime Minister was not blown off course. She fixed the rudder of her ship so that it goes round in circles, and it is still going round in circles. Gone are the happy days when she used to boast in this Chamber that her admirers on the extreme Right in every country in the world were swooning at her feet. Now we hear, again from the Financial Times:
  "On the right wing of the Republican Party where the Prime Minister was once most warmly admired 'Thatcherised' has in recent weeks become a verb of sad warning. Here, it is implied, is what could become of Mr. Reagan if he deviates from the true path."
  "Never bright confident morning again", Prime Minister, with a vengeance.
  I now turn from the abstract statistics about sterling M3 and the PSBR to see what "Thatcherisation" means for the real economy in which men and women have to earn their living, if she allows them to. The real economy is suffering more catastrophically today than it was in the worst days of the 1930s. Unemployment is rising rapidly to 3 million. In fact, the Employment Gazette suggested yesterday that real unemployment may already be higher than 3 million because hundreds of thousands of people who are unemployed are not registering, especially married women and people retiring early. I notice that the number of people drawing short-time subsidy has jumped by a quarter of a million in the last few months. Those, I fear, are people whose unemployment has simply been deferred. They will be joining the register in a few months.
  The Government, according to the statement that the Chancellor issued on Monday, expect output to have fallen by 4½ per cent. in the two years which end in spring 1982. They admit, in the same forecast, that the fall could be as high as 6 per cent. Manufacturing output has already fallen 19 per cent. from the peak that it reached in 1979 and the CBI said a few days ago that it expects a bigger fall in manufacturing output in 1980–81 than took place between 1929 and 1931.
  The Chancellor and the Prime Minister often like to claim that this is basically a shake-out of labour that is making industry leaner but more efficient. Industry is certainly leaner but it is not more efficient. One reads, again in the Employment Gazette, that in the last 12 months output in manufacturing industry has fallen more than one-third faster than employment has fallen. In other

  583
  words, output per man employed in manufacturing industry has fallen very substantially in the last 12 months. On top of that, investment is collapsing and industrial training is slashed. Now, the Government are throwing the £50 million cost of industrial training boards on to firms that already cannot afford to continue their own training programmes. There is no end in sight. The Manpower Services Commission predicts that unemployment will continue rising at least into 1984.
  The damage done to our long-term prospects by this appalling outlook is difficult to exaggerate. It means that the firms that manage to survive in the desert created by the Government will find it very difficult to respond to any recovery, because they will have to meet recovery with clapped-out machinery and short of skilled workers.
  Everybody is asking—I am sure on both sides of the House—why the Government's performance has been so appalling and why the prospect is so terrifying. I am glad that the Chancellor told his Back Benchers the answer in a speech a couple of days ago. He said that he was hemmed in by his election promises. He could have fooled me, because the very first thing he did when he came into office was to double the rate of value added tax, send prescription charges soaring, slash social benefits, organise an immense increase in the total burden of taxation and double the rate of inflation. He did not exactly promise during the election campaign to do all those things. No, that one will not wash.
  Now, we look at a more serious excuse, which the right hon. and learned Gentleman offered us on Monday and which the Prime Minister and other Ministers are always putting forward. It is that the Government's appalling economic record is a by-product of recession in the world as a whole produced by the recent increase in oil prices. But Britain is the only country in the industrial world that has actually gained—and substantially—by the increase in oil prices: an increase in Government revenue of £4,000 million this year, a £7,000 million benefit to the balance of payments compared with what would otherwise have occurred, and an increase in our real gross domestic product of about 5 per cent.
  Yet Britain's performance is far worse than that of any other major industrial country, although all the others are suffering severely from the increase in oil prices, which has done immense damage to their balance of payments, cut their real gross domestic product and brought no increase in their revenue but a big increase in their rate of inflation.
  The trade figures—the Secretary of State for Trade boasted of this in last night's debate—have shown little effect so far on activity in Britain as a result of the world recession. The world recession has scarcely begun in terms of the growth of world trade. That growth is still continuing, although at a somewhat lower level than before the oil price increase, but the effects of the world recession could be shattering next year.
  First, oil prices are likely to rise again in real terms, if not immediately at least at the end of the winter, when countries begin to rebuild the stocks that they have run down. The United States and Japan have already announced that they intend to increase their stocks of oil during the winter. If that happens and if other countries make no attempt to help those that are short of oil, to prevent them going to the spot market, there will be an
  584
  explosion of oil prices at some time in the next few months, and if that explosion is met by deflationary policies in other countries, as it as been this year, we shall face a severe world recession when the impact of the present recession is already being felt and the full impact of the increase in Britain's exchange rate will be felt.
  There is also the risk of a much tighter fiscal and monetary policy in the United States. We cannot be sure of that, because we do not know whether President Reagan will follow Mr. Laffer or Mr. Friedman as his main adviser. But the fact is that the switch to monetary base control, which the Financial Secretary was so keen on a few years ago, has had little effect in controlling the money supply in the United States. What it has done is to produce violent lurches in interest rates which are extremely disturbing to the foreign exchange markets.
  The tragedy is that nothing effective is being done by the Governments of the industrial world to deal with these dangers, which are already apparent. When proposals have been made, they have almost been treated with contempt by this Government. I hope that the right hon. Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath) will have something to say about what might be done to reduce the dangers of a much more severe recession in the world next year, but I want to confine myself to the subject of the debate.
  The reason for the appalling performance of the British economy over the past 18 months is not that the Government were hemmed in by their election promises, and it is not the world recession. The reason is clearly stated in the document "Economic Prospects to End-1981", published by the Chancellor on Monday, which says:
  "it is domestic demand, more than trade, which has led the recession."
  The Chancellor's own publication also says that one of the main causes of reducing our trade has been a high and rising exchange rate.
  I want to say a few words about those two elements in our current position—the deflation by the Government, for which they are wholly responsible, and the rise in the exchange rate, for which they are responsible in part, though not in whole.
  The deflation is the direct result of Government policy. They have cut public expenditure heavily in ways that have thrown the main burden on private industry, at a time when private spending is being held back, partly by the monetary squeeze on business profits and partly by the increase in personal savings produced by the fear of inflation and unemployment, which itself is caused by the Government.
  The combination of the fall in public spending and the increase in savings has taken enormous sums out of the economy. Some of the money has been fed back by increases in the public sector borrowing requirement due to increased benefits and lost revenue—the PSBR rises by £1 billion for every 1 per cent. that GDP falls, and every additional 100,000 people out of work add £500 million to the PSBR. Yet the Government persist in trying to deflate still further in the hope of reducing the PSBR still further. They have not learnt the old lesson that one cannot get a poultry farm out of the red by starving the chickens.
  If, as the Government always maintain, inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods, it is not very clever to reduce the supply of goods much more than the supply of money. Yet that is what the Government have achieved in the past 18 months.

  585
  The extraordinary thing is that on Monday, instead of doing something to cope with the deflation that he has created, the Chancellor gave us another dose of the same medicine and promised yet another dose in the forthcoming Budget. The changes in public expenditure and the increases in national insurance contributions will deflate demand in the economy by about £2,000 million in 1981–82 and will cut real gross domestic product by about 1½ to 2 per cent. It will increase the registered unemployed by another 100,000, thereby immediately feeding back another £500 million on to the PSBR.
  Moreover, the composition of the Chancellor's package was calculated to do the maximum harm to British industry, and not only to British industry but to those very people whom the Prime Minister promised on taking office to protect—those least able to carry the burden. The increase in employees' national insurance contribution adds a burden of £1,000 billion—or is it £1¼ billion? I shall come to that in a moment; we have had both figures from the Chancellor in the past 24 hours. That is far more regressive than a comparable increase of about 1¼p in the standard rate of income tax, because the national insurance contribution is levied on people who are too poor to pay income tax and it ceases to rise once someone is earning more than £200 a week.
  We also had the shabby breach of promise made to the pensioners, who are having their pensions cut next year by 1 per cent., although a married couple of pensioners are already £3 a week worse off than they would have been if the Government had stuck to the rules which we laid down when we were in office.
  This cut of 1 per cent. in the pension increase next year is added to the 5 per cent. cut already made on all short-term benefits. So, in a year's time, all people on short-term benefit will have increases which are 6 per cent. less than the increase in inflation over the next 12 months.
  All this is being done to the poor in our society at a time when rents are due to rise by up to £3 a week, rates are liable to rise by 25 per cent. next year, in many parts of the country school meals and school buses are being abolished, and all nationalised industry charges will rise as well, thereby adding to fares bills for heat and lighting for the poorer in our society.
  One of the shabbiest of all cuts in this respect was the cut in overseas aid, which, as a result, will be 26 per cent. lower than was planned by the Labour Government and 10 per cent. lower than even this Government planned last year.
  Of course, industry is being very hard hit by the measures announced on Monday. Firms will be hit by enormous rate increases, and they are still having to pay energy prices which are far higher than those paid by any of our competitors in the industrial world.
  When the Chancellor of the Exchequer was asked on Monday how industry would come out of his package, he laid great stress on the help that firms would get from the 2 per cent. cut in the MLR. First of all, as I have said on many occasions, a cut of only 2 per cent. is bound to be too small to affect the exchange rate, and so it has proved. The direct effect in reducing industry's interest rate charges will be only about £700 million, which is more than wiped out by the increases which the Government have imposed on industry recently — £400 million by making industry pay the first eight weeks of sick pay and £50 million by making it carry the cost of the industrial training boards.
  586
  Then we come to the only surprise in the statement on Monday. I refer, of course, to the dog that did not bark in the night — the increase in the employers' national insurance payment, which was concealed very carefully by the right hon. and learned Gentleman. I want to ask him some questions about this, and I hope that he will reply in his speech and not put it out in a written answer late on Friday afternoon.
  First, what is the total net revenue derived by the Government as a result of these changes in national insurance contributions, including raising the ceiling to £200, which, incidentally, he announced on Monday? Will it be the £386 million which the Department of Health and Social Security told the press? Will it be the £573 million which No. 10 Downing Street told the press yesterday and is printed in some newspapers? Will it be the £960 million calculated by The Guardian newspaper on the assumption that wages rise next year in line with the Government's own intentions?
  One thing the Chancellor of the Exchequer cannot say is that he was forced to raise this additional revenue from industry. It was perfectly open to him under the legeislation which, as he rightly said, was introduced by us to raise the ceiling to £177. That would have reduced the cost to industry by £250 million. He chose not to do this. He chose instead to put an unnecessary and additional impost on British industry and to conceal the consequences.
  Mr. Tim Eggar: Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?
  Mr. Healey: No, but if the Chancellor of the Exchequer wishes to intervene I shall gladly give way to him.
  I must confess that I cannot but regard the right hon. and learned Gentleman's words during his interrogation on Monday as, to say the very least, a little disingenuous. After telling us about the increase in employees' contributions, and after telling us about the increase in the ceiling for contributions to £200 a week, he said:
  "The additional contribution income"—
  he did not say "from the employees"—
  "will be about £1 billion in 1981–82."—[Official Report, 24 November 1980; Vol. 994, c. 316.]
  No one in the House or outside it could be blamed for taking those words to imply that that was the total net contribution being made. When it was followed by the very cleverly phrased sentence — a real lawyer's sentence, if I may say so—about no increase in the rate for the employers, they must have assumed, as the CBI did at first, that there would be no additional burden falling on industry.
  The Chancellor of the Exchequer really must answer some of the questions which the Prime Minister failed to answer when she was questioned a few moments ago. The Daily Telegraph wrote this morning that some Ministers seemed surprised that the employers' increase had not been detailed to them when the Cabinet had its lengthy review of public expenditure, and it added:
  "in a day of considerable confusion within the Government, it was at first stated that the Prime Minister had not known of the increase until a special meeting at Downing Street on Tuesday morning. But later last night, it was stated that Mrs. Thatcher had known before that meeting about the 'broad level' of the increase."
  One thing is certain, and that is that the House of Commons did not know about the increase, because it was

  587
  not told. It appears that the Cabinet did not know. Perhaps the Prime Minister did not know. The only question left to ask is whether the Chancellor knew. If the Chancellor knew, why on earth did he not tell the House, the Cabinet and the Prime Minister? [HON. MEMBERS: "Let him tell us."] No. I think that the Chancellor has the right to be left in peace to arrange his notes.
  As I have pointed out, the right hon. and learned Gentleman himself has admitted in the document which he published on Monday that deflation is the main cause of the slump which he has created. But exchange rates have also played an important role. They have risen 20 per cent., on a weighted average, in the last 12 months, and they are crucifying manufacturing industry. We hear reports of the damage done every time nowadays that a company chairman opens his mouth.
  The increase in oil prices at a time when we are self-sufficient in oil is bound to exert some upward pressure on our exchange rate, if only because it helps our balance of payments. But the major factor in pushing up the exchange rate for the last 12 months at least has been the very high short-term interest rates. At present, the treasurers of the great multinational companies have no confidence in any long-term investment. Thus, they send billions of pounds of money across the exchanges in search of short-term interest rate differentials. The differential that matters is not just that between sterling and the dollar; it is the differential between sterling and any of the five major currencies, which include the deutschemark, the yen and the French franc.
  The markets by which the Conservative Party set so much store nowadays are rewarding vice rather then virtue across the foreign exchanges. If higher inflation brings higher short-term interest rates in a country, the money will flow to that country and push up its exchange rate. I can see that some Government supporters understand this very well. That is why, for most of the time since the creation of the EMS, the deutschemark has been at the bottom and has been in danger of falling out in recent weeks and the Italian lira has very often been at the top, although in terms of inflation rate or even balance of payments performance this year the German economy is very much the stronger of the two.
  In such circumstances, the cut in minimum lending rate is not enough, especially since it was discounted by the foreign exchange markets before it took place. The Government had indicated that a small cut was coming soon. A 4 per cent. cut was the minimum that would have had a significant effect on the exchange rate. The Government could have done that without damaging their control of the money supply, partly because a lot of company borrowing is made to pay these excessive interest rates, but partly also—I hope that the Government have learnt this from their bitter experience in monetary matters—because it is difficult to control the money supply through interest rates alone.
  The countries that have succeeded in controlling their money supply have done so because they have had effective and direct control over the growth of bank credit. However, Lord Barber abolished these conrols in Britain when he introduced the ill-famed document "Competition and Credit Control", and as a result the banks have been able to evade all the instructions given to them by the Governor of the Bank of England, particularly since the
  588
  Government were idiotic enough to abolish exchange control a year ago, thus enabling even a small town branch of a London clearer to borrow through a subsidiary abroad if it were in danger of incurring difficulties.
  Mr. Eggar: Since the House knows that the right hon. Gentleman remains a committed monetarist, and since he is against controlling money supply through interest rates, does he welcome moving towards a monetary base system?
  Mr. Healey: I have just explained that the monetary base system is far less effective as a measure of control. It involves wide swings in interest rates, as in America. It does not control the money supply, but it increases turbulence across the exchanges. If the hon. Gentleman thinks that I am a monetarist in any of the senses that the Conservative Party is—
  Mr. Eggar: Is the right hon. Gentleman a monetarist or not?
  Mr. Healey: Not in that sense— [Interruption.] I shall give the hon. Member for Enfield, North (Mr. Eggar) a child's guide to the economy and then I shall send him a few notes to explain what I mean.
  It is extraordinary that the Government have not only allowed the banks to evade their attempts at monetary control but, instead of punishing them for undermining their policy, have rewarded them. They have allowed them to keep all the windfall profits they have derived from the Government's interest rate policy and through the evasion of monetary control when they should have taxed the banks' excessive profits. The Chancellor is the voyeur of the Treasury Bench. He has been looking for 18 months at the possibility of taxing bank profits. Will be move from sight to action? That may not be a pretty sight, but we should love to see it. I hope he will tell us something on that score this evening.
  Two years have been wasted by the Government, by their own account. They not have been a waste if the Government have learnt something from the disasters that have followed their current policies. They will have been totally wasted, however, if the Government continue to claim that they are still on course, that they will remain so and that, because there is no alternative, they will continue to pursue policies that have demonstrably failed. Of course, there are many alternatives to the Government's policies. One alternative to knocking one's head against a brick wall is to stop, and that would not be a bad one for the Government to start with.
  However, there are more constructive alternatives if the Government are prepared to learn from the experience of other Governments with economies that are more successful than ours. For example, if they want monetary targets they must set them close to the expected growth of monetary GDP. Germany, often held up as an example to us, has always set its monetary targets above the growth of monetary GDP and, incidentally, has always had a performance slightly beyond its targets.
  All other countries that pursue monetary targets—none of them does it as a be-all-and-end-all of policy—have been prepared to relax them when they have put their citizens out of work through raising the exchange rate too high. The Germans relaxed their monetary policy in 1968. The Swiss abandoned it for nearly a year because it was putting Swiss citizens, not just the gastarbeiter, out of work.

  589
  Second, the Government must, like other Governments, allow the PSBR to rise when the economy is clearly working below capacity. That acts as an automatic regulator which tends to restore balance to the economy. Third, the Government must take action to reduce the appreciation of the pound. Norway, where oil constitutes a far bigger percentage of the economy than it does here, has, in spite of it, managed to keep its exchange rate down through a combination of low interest rates, intervention and inward control. Until the Government have tried some such combination, they have no right to tell us that there is no way of doing the job. Other countries have done it and we could do it, too.
  If the Government do as I suggest, they will be able to use our oil revenues not to finance unnecessary unemployment but to cut indirect taxes and to invest in new technologies on the scale of our competitors, such as Germany, Japan and France. France has just announced a new five-year plan through which it will spend £10 billion entirely in financing and supporting new technology. Why do we not do the same?
  However, none of these measures will work for long if employers and unions take advantage of the more relaxed fiscal and monetary policy to raise their prices or their earnings way beyond increases in their productivity. However, unless the Government can achieve moderation in pay and prices they will have an explosion in both the moment that deflation eases. The explosion that has in the past followed incomes policies introduced in a crisis, as they always have been in this country, will be nothing to the explosion in pay and prices that will follow the years of strangulation imposed by the Government.
  The experience of all countries in recent years has shown that, without the sort of social consensus that leads to moderation on pay and prices, increased demand means increased prices rather than increased output. If demand is restricted, output rather than prices is cut, and that is the Government's current problem. The necessary moderation will not be achieved unless there is consensus rather than confrontation, or at least an aim for that, over the whole range of policies. It is no good attempting to discuss with the unions and the employers nothing but pay and prices. The Government must also discuss with them their policies for industrial expansion and for social justice.
  Governments that have succeeded in this endeavour have had an extraordinarily good performance on output, employment and, inflation. Those countries include Japan and Germany among the big Powers and Austria and Norway among the smaller. The striking factor about Austria and Norway is, contrary to the figures that we are given so often by the Conservatives, that they have not only high output and low inflation but unemployment below 2 per cent. What a prize that would be for us if we could achieve it.
  The tragedy is that this Government will not even attempt to achieve such a consensus. They will learn neither from their own experience nor from that of others. Their policy has failed—there is no question about that. They have no alternative whatsoever, so the Chancellor stumbles around, dazed and punch-drunk, tinkering with the wreckage of his monetary locomotive amid the hiss of the escaping steam and the shrilling of the siren. The Prime Minister, with the mechanical dogmatism which we know so well, says "Everything is all right, and if not it is the
  590
  fault of the Governor of the Bank of England or the rest of the Cabinet." It is never her fault. She was saying that again on television yesterday.
  The fact is that we have a broken-backed Chancellor pursuing a broken-backed policy — a type of manic monetarism diluted only by administrative incompetence and political opportunism. There is no future for this country so long as this Government remain in office.
  4.40 pm
  The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Sir Geoffrey Howe): I begin by dealing directly with the charge laid by the right hon. Member for Leeds, East (Mr. Healey) that I misled the House in any respect this week. I reject absolutely without qualification the suggestions that I misled the House or anybody else by what I said. As the House well knows, the size of national insurance contributions payable by both employers and employees is calculated under the system that took its present shape under the social security legislation of the last Labour Government. That system provides that the contributions payable by employers and employees depend upon two separate factors—the percentage rate payable by either side and the upper and lower limits of the band of earnings on which those rates are levied.
  The lower end of that band of earnings is fixed by reference to the value of the single pension. The upper end of that band is fixed at about seven times the size of that pension. The legislation requires the pension to be increased from time to time in the light of inflation so that the value of the pension is maintained. Exactly the same legislation requires an increase in the ceiling on the range of income on which contributions are charged. The system means that both benefits and contributions go up together. Obviously, the one has to match the other. Benefits have to be paid for, and no one argues against that.
  In exactly the same way, the contribution bands also have to go up. There is, and was, nothing secret about that system. Far from being a secret, the system has been on the statute book in the same form since it was placed there by the Labour Government. There is nothing secret about the amounts to be paid. The last Administration, when it addressed itself to this question, did not at any stage address itself to it differently. The right hon. Member for Leeds, East and all Opposition Members understand that well.
  The system that we followed was established and operated by the Labour Government. We followed that system in exactly the same way. When the right hon. Gentleman was in office the upper limit of the earnings band, which was increased by the announcement that we made this week, was increased each November in three stages, from £90 to £135. When the Labour Party was dealing with these matters, on each occasion Ministers informed the House only by means of written answer. Indeed, if there was anything exceptional about the announcement that I made on Monday, it was that it was the first occasion that an increase had been announced orally in the House instead of by written answer.
  Several Hon. Members Several Hon. Members rose—
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: Of course—
  Hon. Members: Give way.
  Mr Speaker: Order. It is clear that the Chancellor of the Exchequer is not giving way.
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: Of course, every time that the band was increased by the Labour Party, as it was each November year after year, the amount of money payable by employers was automatically increased under the legislation passed by the Labour Government. I cannot recall hearing one word of protest from Labour Members at that time about the additional burden on employers.
  Several Hon. Members Several Hon. Members rose—
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: Opposition Members—
  Hon. Members: Give way.
  Mr. Speaker: Order.
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: Opposition Members have asked some serious questions and laid some serious charges against me. I am addressing myself to those charges. When I have done that, I shall answer their questions within the limits of the debate. Members of the Labour Party made no complaint about the increased burden on employers when they operated exactly the same system in exactly the same way. Therefore, they are not entitled to make complaints about it at this time. Not one aspect of the system that we inherited from the Labour Government was changed in any way by the decisions that I announced on Monday.
  The right hon. Member for Leeds, East has not told the House that more than £100 million of the £386 million increase of which he now complains represents an amount of additional national insurance surcharge payable as a result of the upper earnings limit going up to carry the burden of the national insurance surcharge that he himself invented. I made no change in that.
  The only change that I made, and the only change of which I did, therefore, tell the House, was to raise the percentage rate of contributions, from the employee alone, from 6¾ per cent. to 7¾ per cent. That was the only departure from the regular annual routine laid down by the Labour Government. For that single change I gave the figure of £1 billion for the additional payments by employees. Each year, the other changes were notified by written answer. The only change that we made directed to raise additional revenue beyond that which would have come in the ordinary way from the operation of the ordinary system was the change that I announced to the House.
  Mr. David Ennals: Why, if the Chancellor of the Exchequer feels that he explained the matter to the House, did not the House, the CBI and the public know about it? Why did the Chief Secretary say the next day that with hindsight it would have been better if the situation had been explained to the House?
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: All those who follow these matters were able to see what was happening. [HON. MEMBERS: "Rubbish."] Most of all, the right hon. Member for Leeds, East should have known. The procedure followed was exactly that laid down by the Government of which he was a member.
  Several Hon. Members Several Hon. Members rose—
  Mr. Speaker: Order. Only one hon. Member at a time may address the House.
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: The right hon. Member for Leeds, East was responsible for making the changes. In exactly the same way as he, we came to the House with a written
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  answer to make the changes. The only change of which the House was informed on Monday was the only change that made any difference to the system established by the right hon. Gentleman. If my right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary made certain observations about this matter, I say that the only reason why it might have been more prudent to make any observation about this would have been if one could have foreseen the totally bogus row created by the Opposition.
  Several Hon. Members Several Hon. Members rose—
  Mr. Speaker: Order. It should be clear to the House by now that the Chancellor will not give way.
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: There is one further observation to be made. When rates of contribution are increased, it is the normal practice, under the legislation of the Labour Party, for that increase to be shared equally between employer and employee. On this occasion, far from placing added burdens on employers, we decided to relieve them of their normal share of the extra revenue from the changing rate, of which I told the House on Monday not one penny would be paid by employers. The additional revenue that they will pay comes not from any change that we made but from the legislation of the Labour Government. We have protected the employer from any fresh burden. The right hon. Member for Leeds, East did exactly the opposite.
  Mr. Healey: Will the Chancellor answer the question that I put to him? If he was so anxious to protect employers, why did he not increase the ceiling by the minimum provided in the law, thereby saving employers £250 million of the £386 million that he says this change will cost?
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: Because the figure arrived at by way of conclusion follows from the Government Actuary's analysis of what it is prudent to impose. Moreover, it is entirely within the limits laid down by the legislation enacted by the Labour Party.
  The Opposition have no right to make complaints of this kind. Their record in office on the matter was to heap burden after burden upon the employer. In 1977 the right hon. Gentleman imposed quite specifically and gratuitously on the employer the first national insurance surcharge of 2 per cent. In 1978 he raised the national insurance surcharge to 3½ per cent. In the same year he raised the employers' national insurance contribution rate by 1¼ per cent., as against ¾ per cent. for the employee. On no occasion did the Labour Government act to abate or modify the burden falling on the employer. On occasion after occasion, they acted to increase that burden. The right hon. Gentleman is the last person who has any right whatsoever to criticise the steps that we have taken. [Interruption.]
  Mr. Speaker: Order. I know that the House is excited, but we must be able to hear what the Minister is saying.
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: The Labour Party has no right whatsoever to criticise the way in which we followed the system laid down by the Labour Government's legislation.
  When I came before the House on Monday, I told it everything—all that there was to be told about the only consequence of the only change that we then made. The House was fully informed about that, and the Labour Party has no right to criticise.
  Mr. Richard Wainwright: The Chancellor spoke just now of the rise in the top income limit for social security contributions being automatic. Surely, he knows that the statute gives him a wide area of choice between six and a half times the pension and seven and a half times the pension. Surely, he should have informed the House, when he was dealing with the whole span of social security contributions, why he chose to go to the top of the scale.
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: The hon. Gentleman must have failed to hear what was said by my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister as well as myself. Changes in that band—the spread to the top limit of earnings—have been announced every year and each year by written answer in exactly the same way as we have done. There was no reason whatsoever to do anything different.
  Mr. Healey: The Chancellor must recall that he told us about the increase to £200 in his statement on Monday. Thai was not left until the next day. However, he did not explain to the House the consequences to the employer, nor did he explain why he had chosen the upper, rather than the lower, end of the band. If he was able, as I am, to see the discomfort and scepticism on the faces behind him, he would realise that he would have done much better to make an apology instead of going through the preposterous rigmarole to which we have just been subjected.
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: I certainly feel under no obligation whatsoever to offer any apology in the face of the advocacy of the right hon. Gentleman. He knows perfectly well that we acted in accordance with the procedures laid down, and I have nothing more to add. Indeed, it is not the only point on which the right hon. Gentleman does less than credit to his insight when he was in office.
  Mr. Andrew Faulds: Bring back Barber.
  Mr. Speaker: Order. If I heard the remark correctly, it seems that the House is difficult to please. When Black Rod wants to come, hon. Members do not want him.—[HON. MEMBERS: "No. Barber."] — I withdraw my remark; I misheard the hon. Gentleman. I suggest now that we all listen to the Chancellor.
  Mr. Faulds: On a point of order, Mr. Speaker. You unfortunately misheard me. I should welcome Black Rod instead of this performance. I was referring to the late unlamented chap who is now in another place.
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: The point with which we have just dealt is not the only one on which the analysis of the right hon. Member for Leeds, East does less than credit to what I believed he had learnt when he was in office. He was at pains today to say that if the House believed that he was a monetarist it would believe anything. I am not at all clear what the right hon. Gentleman's position is. I had understood him to attach some importance to monetary policy. He took a great deal of time when in office to expound the principles of monetary policy to us. Is he now saying that he has turned his back on that, or does he have some special brand of his own?
  The right hon. Gentleman seems prepared to adopt almost any posture. He appeared at one point in his speech to be criticising the excessive rate of monetary growth. At the next moment he appeared to be criticising deflationary
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  policies. At one point he was apparently arguing that we had failed in our ambitions to cut public spending. The next moment he was complaining that we had made cuts in public spending that were far too massive. As always, the right hon. Gentleman's analyses and recipes are inconsistent with each other. He was also suggesting, as he did on Monday, that the PSBR should be allowed to increase to almost any figure that he cared to think of, and at the same time he advocated a much larger cut in MLR.
  The right hon. Gentleman was at pains — it is important that we should not allow the argument to go unchallenged—to suggest that the problems that we face in our economy are unique to this country. It would be a fundamental mistake to cherish the illusion that Britain alone today is beset by economic problems of that kind. Virtually every other economy is still reeling from the impact of the doubling in the price of oil since 1978. In the last three months for which figures are available, industrial production in the six major overseas economies, even including Japan, has fallen by an annual rate of almost 10 per cent.
  We have witnessed in the same period the steepest decline in industrial growth in American history. As profits have suffered around the world, so have jobs well beyond the frontiers of our own country. Over the past 18 months unemployment in the seven major OECD economies has risen by over 2½ million. The Opposition do no good by trying to ignore the facts. It has been said that our unemployment
  "is part of an affliction that is affecting the whole world. The Western world is gripped by the most complex and perilous recession that we have seen since 1945."
  Those are not my words but the words of the right hon. Member for Ebbw Vale (Mr. Foot), the Leader of the Opposition. They were true when he uttered them and they are infinitely more true today.
  We do not doubt that the Labour Party, whatever else it may be committed to, is clearly committed to the conquest of unemployment. So are we. The fact is, however much Labour Members may scoff, that unemployment has climbed in Britain under successive Governments since the war. The average level of unemployment from 1951 to 1964 was about 300,000. From 1964 to 1970 it increased to 500,000. From 1970 to 1974 it increased to 750,000. During the last Government of the Labour Party—namely, from 1974 to 1979—it increased to about 1,250,000.
  If we set that mounting trend of unemployment alongside one other trend, we see clearly one of the causes of it. Over the same 20 years successive Governments have witnessed a higher average rate of inflation than did their predecessors. From 1951 to 1964 inflation averaged 3½ per cent. a year. It was 4½ per cent. from 1964 to 1970. From 1970 to 1974 it was 9 per cent. During the past five years it has been 15 per cent. a year. That is the background against which some, including some members of the Labour Party, say "Tackle high unemployment and low growth by adding to the domestic demand." Surely, we have learnt that along that way lies more inflation, fewer jobs and not more growth. We shall never reverse the trend towards higher unemployment unless we reverse the same trend towards higher inflation.
  Mr. Clinton Davis Mr. Clinton Davis (Hackney, Central) rose—
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: At the heart of our strategy is our conviction that inflation is the first enemy. That stems not from any preoccupation with monetarism or anything else; it is the lesson of Britain's economic history since the war.
  If I may, I shall flatter the Leader of the Opposition once more by quoting a remark that he made to his hon. Friend the Member for Bolsover (Mr. Skinner). It was not very long ago that he said to his hon. Friend:
  "I think that my hon. Friend must face the fact that inflation helps to cause unemployment."—[Official Report, 28 October 1975; Vol. 898, c. 1269.]
  It is a great thing to reflect that at least we have as the Leader of the Opposition someone who echoes the message uttered by the Government who were led by the right hon. Member for Cardiff, South-East (Mr. Callaghan) and who also echoes the message that inflation is the cause of unemployment.
  It is in that context that other industrial countries have recently been restating their determination to press on with the battle against inflation. We must do the same. We must recognise, as does the right hon. Member for Leeds, East, that monetary policy has a crucial part to play in that. The rapid growth of sterling M3 in recent months was a predictable response to the removal of the corset. However, there have been other reasons: the size of the surplus on the current account of the balance of payments, the financial needs of the corporate sector and, in the first half of the year, the scale of public sector borrowing.
  It is against that picture that we must consider the outlook for monetary growth in the months ahead. A very different picture should emerge by the end of the current target period in April 1981. Public sector borrowing in the second half of the financial year is likely to be less than half what it was in the first six months.
  There are signs of a downturn in the growth of bank lending. As inflation eases, and, above all, if wage settlements continue at a realistic level, the downturn should be confirmed. Over the 14 months of the target period, monetary growth will be significantly less than the figures so far would suggest.
  In those circumstances, and provided that we continue to develop appropriate fiscal policies, it clearly does not make sense to raise interest rates. It is equally unnecessary to allow real interest rates to continue rising by leaving nominal rates unchanged while the rate of inflation falls. That is the background against which we saw, this week, the cut in minimum lending rate from 16 to 14 per cent. That is the background against which we have been reviewing the techniques for monetary control in the light of the response to the March Green Paper. The changes that I announced on Monday open up a way to a move, in the longer term, to a system of judgments about the appropriate level of interest rates to be replaced by control of the monetary base. Such a system has attractions, and a decision for or against it will be taken, as is right, as more information becomes available.
  In the meantime, monetary control in the next year will be improved if the public sector can mobilise directly a larger share of personal savings. The target for next year is to attract £3 billion in new money into national savings. Since 17 November the indexed national savings certificate has been available to anyone aged over 60 years. By the end of last week about £120 million had already flowed in. In due course I intend to extend
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  eligibility to purchase the certificates so that other sectors of the population will be able to obtain the benefits of this form of saving.
  I have also decided to increase the maximum deposit in the investment account of the National Savings Bank to £200,000 and to improve the attractiveness of the premium bond scheme. Full details are being announced by the Department of National Savings today.
  Mr. Clinton Davis: I am obliged to the right hon. and learned Gentleman for enabling me to interrupt his gabble. Will be admit or deny that the overall effect of the measures that he announced on Monday, at a time of already deepening recession, will have an adverse effect on employment?
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: The measures that I announced on Monday, as should be perfectly clear to the hon. Gentleman, are designed to ensure that public sector borrowing does not become excessive and that interest rates do not become excessive. They are designed in that way to ensure that unemployment begins to decrease rather than to increase. All these measures, including monetary measures, will help to maintain our medium-term strategy. They will help the Government to borrow in ways that are not inflationary. However, we must also ensure that borrowing is held firmly in check. That is why it is important to come to the right judgment on the size of the public sector borrowing requirement.
  We have always accepted that it may be legitimate for the PSBR to be higher at a time of recession. What divides us from the Opposition is our anxiety that it should not be allowed to go too far, and certainly nowhere near as far as the right hon. Gentleman says. It is for that reason that we are proposing to take action, as I announced on Monday, on both sides of the account, namely, to increase revenue in the next financial year and to deal with public expenditure.
  Those measures have to take account of the way in which current pressures are affecting different parts of the economy in different ways. They have to take account as well of the need for legislation ahead of the Budget if a full year's revenue is to be secured. At present, there is a significant lack of balance between the personal and company sectors. That is made significantly worse by the rise in the exchange rate to which the right hon. Gentleman referred. It must be recognised that consumers gain real extra purchasing power on top of rapid increases in money earnings, so that for the great majority of those in work real living standards have been rising, while output has been falling. In the meantime, many companies suffer and have been suffering. International competition makes it difficult to recover higher costs, whether in domestic or export markets.
  All those pressures reinforce a steady shift that has been taking place over decades from investment into consumption and from profits towards pay, so that the real rate of return earned by industry, apart from the North Sea activities, has been falling steadily and remorselessly.
  That is the background to the decision that I announced about taxation of North Sea profits and increased national insurance contributions. The economic squeeze has not hit North Sea operations or those who have been able to keep their jobs. It is in those areas that we must seek such new revenue as we need. The rising price of oil has changed the balance between the interests of the oil companies

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  operating in the North Sea and the legitimate needs of the nation. I judge that the nation can sensibly look for a larger share of the higher revenues from North Sea operations and so aim to secure an extra £1 billion from that source next year.
  Petroleum revenue tax by itself is unable to do the job, and we may need to make changes in the direction of this new tax. Of course, the Government recognise the importance that the industry attaches to stability in the North Sea fiscal regime. We cannot ignore the increase in world oil prices, and we cannot insulate the North Sea sector from the problems of the rest of the British economy.
  I have already explained the position with regard to employees' contributions. The new departure is the increase in contribution rate for employees only. If I had followed the example of the Labour Party, I should have put an additional burden of £½ billion on the employer under the normal arrangements. I shall, of course, look again at the whole balance when I frame my Budget next year.
  One thing is clear: to reduce the real value of employers' payments across the entire national insurance contribution machinery or through the national insurance surcharge would not be the best way of helping manufacturing, which is bearing the brunt of the pressure. Only one-third of the total payments from that source comes from manufacturing. It is much better to concentrate help where it is most needed. It is for that reason that our new stock relief scheme, which will cost about £300 million next year, has been introduced and will come into effect next year.
  We have had to look to those revenue changes to play an important part in getting the right fiscal balance, but we have also been pursuing the crucial objective of curtailing the size of public spending. The decisions that we recently announced ensure both that the long-run strategy set out in our March White Paper is secured and that the pattern and level of expenditure next year are adjusted to changing circumstances.
  Inevitably, because of the recession, public spending next year will be somewhat higher than previously intended. With higher unemployment, more people will be eligible for social security benefits. The nationalised industries are bound to draw more heavily on the Government in such times. As the House knows, we have made provision for special employment measures, increasing the figure by about £250 million to about £570 million. Those measures are not, of course, intended as a solution to unemployment, but they will have a very substantial impact, especially upon youth unemployment, as well as preventing the growth of long-term unemployment among school leavers and helping to equip people of all ages for new jobs.
  At the same time, reductions are being made beyond those planned in last March's White Paper, partly to finance these extra expenditures and partly to bring down the burden imposed by the public sector on private industry. Governments all over Europe have come to realise that the provision of public services must be scaled to what the productive economy can afford. They have come to realise that scaling down must be applied to social security as well as to other programmes. In Sweden and Denmark, for example, pensions are being uprated by reference not to the consumer price index but to an index that excludes energy prices, and in one country to an index
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  that excludes indirect taxes. That kind of change has been contemplated in other countries. We are taking our own measures here, as I have already announced to the House.
  Mr. Healey: It has been widely leaked that the Chancellor is planning substantial increases in the tax on drink and tobacco. Is he aware that beer and tobacco form 12 per cent. of the old-age pensioners' price index? Can he assure the House that he will not seek to impose another cut on the living standards of old-age pensioners by this back-door method?
  Sir Geoffrey Howe: Like the right hon. Gentleman, I do not propose to anticipate my Budget judgments. I am aware, as he was, of the part played by tobacco and alcohol in the budget of every family in this country, but he will have to wait and see. What we are doing is to continue the shift away from the spending plans of the last Administration. Although our plans for next year are somewhat higher than we envisaged in March, they will be about £5 billion below the level planned by the last Government. The volume of public spending next year should be about 1 per cent. below the outturn now expected for the current year.
  Some people argue that we should have gone much further in cutting public expenditure. The Opposition argue that we should have gone nothing like so far. Critics on both sides ignore the balance and the success of what we have achieved, and they ignore the difficulties of trying to do more. Whatever the Labour Party may think, it is clearly right to maintain the priority that we give to the defence of the nation. That has not enabled us to preserve that programme in its entirety, but our record is likely to remain one of the best in the Alliance.
  It is clearly right to sustain spending on the Health Service in real terms, even if we have to seek higher national insurance contributions from employees to provide the additional revenue. It is clearly reasonable not to increase social security benefits in real terms at a time when the real incomes of those who finance them are falling, but we are fulfilling our undertaking to protect pensioners against inflation. With falling school rolls there is a clear case for economies in expenditure on education, but even those cannot be achieved overnight if the quality of basic education is to be maintained.
  Finally, there can be no doubt that it is right to give continuing importance to preserving law and order. Outside defence, law and order, health and social security, we are making massive economies. By next year, real spending at 1980 survey prices on the remaining programmes will be £3½ billion less than it was two years ago, with particularly big contributions from housing—£1½ billion—and education—£½ billion. If it is not right to look at programmes of that kind, how is it possible to make sensible reductions in the overblown burden of public expenditure? It is equally important not to ignore what we have also achieved — a similar pattern of significant reductions virtually everywhere else.
  There are still some who argue that, regardless of all that we have been doing, there are easy billions of pounds to save. That is to ignore what has already been done. It is to ignore, for example, what has been done about the size of the Civil Service. Since the election, numbers have been reduced by about 5 per cent.—35,000 altogether. The largest fall, approaching 10 per cent., has been achieved in my own departments. To make such criticisms

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  is to ignore the target that we have set ourselves, which is a reduction of 100,000 by 1983, which will give us a smaller Civil Service than at any time since the war. That will mean a cost saving of over £1 billion per year.
  One particular difficulty that we face this year is the impact of last year's catching-up pay settlements for workers in the public services. Those settlements, the inevitable consequence of the collapse of the previous Administration's over-rigid pay norms, have meant that even to provide the same level of services in terms of volume costs more. We cannot allow that to happen again. The Government are determined that the pay bill in the public services must reflect what the country can afford. That is why we have made it clear that next year's rate support grant settlement will not provide for average increases in pay exceeding 6 per cent.
  With regard to our own employees, we have made it equally clear that pay settlements cannot be determined exclusively by comparability. No Government can guarantee the living standards of those who work in the public services regardless of the realities of what is happening in the rest of the economy.
  No one need have any doubt about the determination of this Administration to control public expenditure, in terms of both volume and cost. No one should have any doubt that we are pursuing the right strategy through conditions inevitably more adverse than anyone had foreseen. Our objective must be to adjust the balance of the economy, to lay the foundations for renewed growth with the conquest of inflation. The strategy is achieving just that. The decline in gross domestic product is coming towards an end. Pay bargaining is displaying a new sense of realism. Industrial disputes are fewer at this time than at any time in the last 30 years. Inflation during the last six months has been running at an annual rate of less than 10 per cent. This week's reduction in interest rates will bring further valuable encouragement.
  I invite the House to reject the Opposition amendment and to give our strategy the support that it deserves.
  5.19 pm
  Mr. James Callaghan: I promise not to detain the House for long, but I cannot let this occasion pass without recording my dismay at the course which events and actions in this country are taking. I feel that we are in a most serious crisis, and I cannot say that the speech of the Chancellor of the Exchequer today has done anything to relieve my anxieties or those of many other hon. Members.
  I shall not spend time on the dispute about the national insurance contributions, except to say that the Chancellor does not seem to understand what the complaint is. It is that he gave the House a picture about the future of industry and the burdens that he would impose upon employers. He did not mention this particular aspect of it and, therefore, either wittingly or unwittingly, he gave a misleading impression. Knowing the Chancellor, my view is that he was not aware of what was happening. If only he had come to the House and said "I am sorry that I did not give the full picture; it might have been better if I did", he could have saved 20 minutes of his speech. That is what it comes to. No one is accusing the right hon. and learned Gentleman of dishonesty, but we feel that on Monday he
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  gave an impression to the country that the position, of industry would be better to the tune of £386 million than it has turned out to be.
  My right hon. Friend the Member for Leeds, East (Mr. Healey) today gave us the facts about the situation. It is deteriorating because of the oil price increases, the world recession and the cuts in demand at home—a restriction in demand which the Government are themselves imposing. My case is a simple one. This is not the time to cut demand. This is the time when demand should sensitively but properly be increased. That is the difference between us and Conservative Members.
  The facts speak for themselves. Unemployment is rising and will continue to rise. It will affect both the public sector borrowing requirement and, more importantly, the lives of millions of families in our country. It is to that matter that I want to address my remarks later. Factories are being dismantled. Apprenticeships are fewer than they have ever been. There is a deterioration in our physical assets, both public and private. That is the reality of the situation. The country is going down. It is going backwards at the present time. It is clear that some effort must be made to reverse that trend. I heard nothing in the ragbag of proposals that have been put forward by the Government to give me the impression that there was a coherent strategy behind what they were trying to do.
  It is clear that the Government had no conception that their policies would produce results as serious as they have turned out to be. Even as recently as 20 July last, the Secretary of State for Employment, in an interview in the Sunday Times, was repeating the official forecast — admittedly he was a little sceptical about it — about unemployment in 1981. Unemployment already stands at 2·1 million. Last July he told the Sunday Times that the official forecast for unemployment in 1981 was 1·8 million.
  The situation has deteriorated more rapidly and seriously than the Government ever expected or intended. Manufacturing output is lower than they intended when they embarked on these policies, as is investment in new plant and machinery. Our gross domestic product is smaller than the Government intended. All these things have happened, whether they intended them to happen or not. It is because of the seriousness of the situation that we cannot accept that the Government's present policies will remedy the position in which the country finds itself.
  There are now between 80 and 90 per cent. of firms working below capacity. Was that the Government's intention when they embarked upon these policies? I cannot believe that it was, yet the Prime Minister finds it impossible ever to admit that in the slightest respect she could be wrong about anything. As a result, on the radio last night she told us that she would not be blown off course in any way. I do not believe it. Of course the Government have been blown off course. Indeed, their own two chosen instruments show that they have been blown off course. We were to have a
  "proper monetary discipline … with publicly stated targets"
  which would control the increase in the money supply. At the same time, each year we were to have "a gradual reduction" in the size of the public sector borrowing requirement. We were told that the first was "essential" to the policy and that the second was "vital", but neither has been achieved by the Government. I happen to be sceptical about these matters, but if the Government attach such

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  importance to them and describe them as "vital" and "essential", how can they believe that they are on course with their policies?
  The situation would have been far worse had the Government adhered to their target. However, these matters have become articles of faith—in the same way in which I have seen other monetary matters become articles of faith—instead of being used and discarded when their usefulness is ended. Of course, the control of the money supply has a place in our affairs, and of course the level of the PSBR matters, but it is absurd and ridiculous to elevate them to the level to which they have been elevated by the Government.
  In the interests of our manufacturing cycle, in the interests of those who are unemployed and in the interests of all the things that need doing, I beg the Government to think again. We must have a change from this policy which shows no prospect of improvement in 1981. Indeed, I believe that 1981 will be a worse year than 1980. In their saner moments, Ministers say that what is required is better management, better trade union practices, a closer relationship between productivity and earnings and higher technology. All those things are true, but they persist in believing that if they treat the monetary target as a regime — just like the old gold standard, and with the same consequences—adhere to them through thick and thin and sit tight, matters will come right. To my great horror, that is what the Prime Minister said on the radio last night. They will not.
  I therefore ask that changes be made in the Government's policy. If the Government restrict demand, as they are doing today, both private and public, costs are bound to go up, firms will not be able to make the proft that is required for investment, output will decline and unemployment will increase. I should have thought that that was simple common sense. Once more I urge the Government to think again.
  Another problem which I wish to raise before I sit down relates to Wales. This month, Wales has the unenviable distinction of having the highest percentage of unemployment in Britain— 11·4 per cent. overall and 13·3 per cent. male unemployed. About one man in seven in South Wales is out of work. There is some wild talk in Wales at present which is discountenanced and, I hope, disavowed by everyone who has any sense of responsibility about the way in which we conduct our affairs. However, the Government should be in no doubt that it exists. Labour Members of Parliament for Wales have asked me to raise this matter.
  Two days ago, my right hon. Friend the Member for Rhondda (Mr. Jones), who is our spokesman on Welsh affairs, sent a letter to the Prime Minister about the problem of steel in Wales. There is a growing and dismaying belief that either Llanwern or Port Talbot is to be closed down. This springs from the review of steel output under the corporate plan that will be put before the Government. Points about it have in some way been leaked to the public, and it is believed that there will be a shutdown of one strip mill or the other. The letter to the Prime Minister says that Wales cannot stand another such hammer blow. I repeat that with all the seriousness that I can.
  There is no need for me to say that every one of us will discountenance violence or unlawful tactics in Wales. However, I beg the Government to accept the fact that small groups of people will misuse the economic situation
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  in order to undertake action to bring about a great divide in the country and endanger our democratic practices. My right hon. Friend the Member for Rhondda and I—all of us — will throw what weight and influence we have against that.
  I urge the Government to treat with seriousness the fact that if Wales suffers the closure of one of those great strip mills on the coast the consequences will be extremely serious. I beg the Government to think again about that. Not only will there be consequences for steel. There will be the ripple consequences to coal, to the pits producing the coal and to the ancillary industries. When our people in Wales become unemployed, there is nothing for them to do and nowhere for them to go. I urge the Government to think again.
  I believe that the time has come for the Government to put in hand new projects, as was done in the 1930s. I know that I am described in the newspapers as old-fashioned, but I draw on my history. In the 1930s, even the Conservative Government launched a great project to build the "Queen Mary" on the Clyde when there was fierce unemployment at a level that I am glad most hon. Members have not experienced. We should start to do the same thing again.
  I should like to make some suggestions to the Government. They should use British steel in North Sea oil rigs. They should undoubtedly increase the amount that is being used here, irrespective of the consequences. They should also start on a Channel tunnel. A great project such as that could be started, and if it affected the public sector borrowing requirement, so much the better. I would not care if it did. The Government should start to invest in and modernise the railway system. They should bring the ports system up to date and place orders with the engineering industry. They should assist new construction and expand the housing programme and get the housing market moving again.
  What I am proposing is good investment for the future. I know that it will knock the PSBR. I am not suggesting that we should throw money away, but in some essential elements our physical capacity is deteriorating sadly, and the Government have a responsibility and could wisely invest in the future, if only they would do so. We also need large-scale training and more apprentices. I am calling for emergency action in these matters.
  I do not have time to go into detail now, but f hope that the right hon. Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath) will refer to the opportunity that was missed by the leaders of the world at Venice last July. They focused only on inflation. They did not focus on the world recession. It is now beginning to hit us, and it will hit us even harder in 1981.
  The private sector must be profitable. My hon. Friends and I have not always said that as clearly as we should have done. But there must also be large-scale planned intervention by the Government in this serious situation. Such intervention must be sensitive, but it must take place. If Conservative Members bury their heads in the sand, as they have done so far, they will not be creating a social consensus; they will be widening the social divide and they will be responsible for what happens as a result. I urge the Government to think again.
  5.34 pm
  Mr. Edward Heath: I, too, am grateful for the opportunity to make an intervention, which I hope will be brief. I do not wish to dwell on the question of the insurance contributions, which has occupied so much time

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  this afternoon. I simply wish to say that my right hon. and learned Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer, a colleague as a Law Officer for many years, is a man of undoubted integrity, and I am sure that no hon. Member believes that he intended to mislead the House. He has only to say that if, after his statement, any hon. Member was led to a wrong conclusion he regrets it, and I am sure that the House will accept that unequivocally.
  What I have in common with the right hon. Member for Cardiff, South-East (Mr. Callaghan) is that, undeniably, our generation came into Parliament because we were determined to prevent what happened in the 1930s from occurring again and to prevent a breakdown in the social structure and the political institutions that led to the rise of authoritarianism in Europe and finally to the Second World War. That was our determination, and for 25 years, from 1950 to 1975, the people we represented had a better standard of living, bigger and better homes, better education, a better Health Service, better roads and better transport and were able to enjoy holidays such as they had not envisaged before.
  Therefore, I think that the House will appreciate that I am not one who apologises for that period during the postwar years to the middle of 1975. It is now a tragedy that it has passed. We are now faced with massive unemployment, on a scale certainly at the level of the 1930s and to become greater. The improvement in housing, education and the standard of living has stopped. To all of us, that is a matter of the greatest possible regret.
  The Chancellor said that he wished to get a better balance in the economy. As a result of an extraordinary transatlantic telephone conversation that I had with Professor Friedman, I find that I am not entirely alone among those in the Conservative Party who worked for its victory who are worried about the present situation. One of our intentions after the 1930s was to ensure that the Conservative Party was never again considered to be the party of unemployment. I ask my hon. Friends to think seriously about that in our present circumstances. When one wants a better balance in the economy, unemployment should be dealt with. Otherwise, the risks to our party—if I may talk to my party for one moment—are very great and will defeat the other purposes that we have in mind.
  Mr. John Bruce-Gardyne: How many elections did you lose?
  Mr. Heath: It was not on the question of unemployment. Unemployment is of vital importance, particularly to the unemployed. [Interruption.] If my hon. Friend the Member for Knutsford (Mr. Bruce-Gardyne) wishes to go off to write leaders for The Daily Telegraph, he can do so.
  I spoke about a better balance in the economy. I have endeavoured to make speeches about that in the past, and, in view of the support for some of the proposals, I wish to mention them again to my right hon. and learned Friend the Chancellor. When he talks about monetarism to Labour Members, he says that they have a choice between whether they wish him to be a stronger or weaker monetarist. That is not the point. The point is whether his attempt to pursue a strict monetarist policy is, in some aspects, having undesirable effects, which are defeating his own ends. For example, can it be right to have rates
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  of interest under which those who have spent 20 or 30 years of their lives—as my father did—building up their own family business have found it destroyed in this past year? The Secretary of State for Trade says that other people will take their place. They may do so in time, but that is no consolation to the people who have had 30 years of work destroyed because of the level of interest rates. Nor does it allow for the length of time taken by people to build up a new family business or any other business.
  The point here is that what the Chancellor wanted to obtain could have been brought about if interest rates had not been at that level, because they have proved to be self-defeating. The cost of unemployment produced by them is greater than the interest rate benefit. That is one of the self-defeating aspects of that approach.
  The same thing applies to the sterling rate. Can it be right to have sterling at the present level? I have been one of those who have always fought for a high sterling rate. But what has mattered in this last period has been the speed at which it has reached its present level. I do not believe that any firm can cope with an increase of 30 per cent. in the rate of sterling over a period of 15 months. How can it increase its productivity sufficiently to deal with that?
  Here again, there is a fallacious argument. It is not the efficient who can cope with that. The efficient, as we see from our great firms, have a very small margin for improvement in a given period of time. Therefore, when they are faced with that rate of increase in such a short time they are in the utmost difficulties, as we now see. It would have been right to ensure that sterling did not rise as fast as that. [HON. MEMBERS: "How?"] I shall deal with these questions.
  What we have seen has been the management of a monetary policy based entirely on the level of interest rates. It is that which has prevented the Government from making other charges such as the Germans and the Swiss made when they found it necessary in order to ensure that their currencies did not rise at a great rate.
  When I am told that what we are doing is following the German policy and creating another German miracle, I remind the House that the Germans were immensely careful to ensure that when the mark appreciated it was by 4 per cent. or 4½ per cent. German manufacturers, of course, cried out against it, and they were told "You can manage." Then there was a break of about two and a half years and the rate was put up by another 3½ per cent. That is how the mark was improved and the German economy was improved. It could not have stood a rate of appreciation such as we have gone through in the last 15 months. If a Government are prepared to use technical means other than the interest rate, they can do much more to control the level at which the currency settles, and that is what is required.
  The Chancellor of the Exchequer, by his announcement on Monday, showed that he has now freed himself from the shackles of the strict monetarism to which he claims to have applied himself in the past 18 months, because in no way do the figures that he has given relate to each other in terms of strict monetarism. I welcome this wholeheartedly. If only he will realise it, he has the freedom now to act in other ways than interest rates in order to give him much greater flexibility and a much better balance in the economy as a whole. I beg him not to cast that opportunity away.
  The Chancellor of the Exchequer has now given figures for the total public sector borrowing requirement for the

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  rest of this year, and we now know that he is to reduce interest rates at the same time. These matters bear no relationship to each other. The plain fact is that now that he has freed himself from the shackles, he should take every opportunity to use the maximum flexibility open to him in order to remove the dangers that we see—to the big firms from the rate of sterling and to the small family businesses from the high interest rates from which they have had to suffer, with the accompanying danger from unemployment that exists in each case.
  There is no doubt at all that we have lost competitiveness. I remind my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister that the Financial Times showed that three-fifths of the problem is due to the sterling rate and only two-fifths to the wage spiral. I suggest that three-fifths is a very substantial contribution to the loss of competitiveness. What is happening is that firms are quietly withdrawing from this country, setting up their production overseas and supplying this country as the foreign market. This is already indicated in the figures for imported manufactures. More and more we shall see imports going up from manufactures made by British firms overseas, whose only way of surviving is to use Britain as the foreign market and the other places as the home market. This, too, is a regrettable aspect of what is happening.
  I want to deal with one subject that has been mentioned by the right hon. Members for Cardiff, South-East and Leeds, East (Mr. Healey), and that is oil. I was struck last night by the words of the Secretary of State for Trade. In replying to the debate, he used the words "when the recession passes". This recession will not pass by. If anything, it will become deeper and deeper, for the reason that we now have the most powerful cartel that the world has ever known controlling the one raw material that is basic to industry in the Western world and to the medium developing countries and those that are industrialising. The cartel will continue to increase oil prices. If there is an OPEC meeting in December, the guaranteed prices will be raised to the spot price. I have no doubt whatever of that.
  It will mean a still further contribution from all of us to the OPEC surpluses. The figures have now become most striking. The developed world will now have a deficit of at least $50 billion in 1980. The German surplus has gone. The Japanese surplus has gone. We may just have a slight surplus. But the total will be at least $50 billion.
  The non-oil exporting developing world will have a deficit of at least $75 billion, and that can be filled only by further borrowing. The OPEC countries will have a surplus of at least $120 billion, and much more likely $150 billion. If that is drained off from the world, there is bound to be a still deeper recession. Theare can be no other process. We cannot cope with that by making our own recession deeper still.
  There should be an urgent initiative by the leaders of the Western world in order to bring about a meaningful dialogue and a concordat about the future supplies and prices of oil for the world as a whole. It will, of course, be difficult to get it. By 1979, the commercial banks had succeeded in recycling a considerable proportion of the OPEC surpluses. That was why, although unemployment still remained high, it had begun to come down. Now, the whole process has to start all over again, because the commercial banks believe that they are fully extended in terms of borrowing from OPEC and investing in the developing world.
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  We must, therefore, find alternative means of recycling, and it can be done only through international institutions or through Governments. Basically, for OPEC it will have to be through international institutions. If this is to be. done, the international institutions, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund must be acceptable to OPEC in their power structure, and that is not the case at the moment. I regret, therefore, that the Chancellor did not find himself in a position to accept a new power structure at the September meeting of the World Bank and the IMF.
  The structure also has to be acceptable to the rest of the developing world. That means that OPEC will have to secure something for commodities and access for industrial goods, something on the control of transnationals and something on wiping out the indebtedness of the 20 or 30 poorest countries in the world. Why must this be done? It must be done for a political reason—that the OPEC countries want their votes in the matter of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
  We come back to another political problem. There must be urgent Western leadership to find a solution to the Palestinian problem. We cannot sit here and say that our troubles are due either in whole—as some may argue—or in part to a world depression and then do nothing about it. I call on my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister to take the lead in these matters in seeking a dialogue with OPEC, in working for the proposals that have been put forward in the Brandt commission for a mini-summit.
  Already the steering committee of the Foreign Ministers has met. The summit will be in Mexico in June. I want to see Britain invited. I do not want to see Britain kept outside because the 20 or 30 Heads of Government are able to say "Britain has nothing to contribute. She is not interested. Look at what she has done about her overseas aid." I want to see the British Government taking the lead in this matter. I want my right hon. Friend to be in Mexico and taking the lead in finding a solution rather than saying that this is something that can wait until we have solved our own problems. That is the basic position that I should like my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister to take up.
  I urge the Government to use the flexibility that they gained last Monday afternoon, either by design or chance. I urge them to take a lead in the Western world. in the industrialised world, in the Nine and in the Seven who meet together and to establish a meaningful dialogue with OPEC and to find a solution to that problem. It will bedevil the world for the rest of this century unless we find alternative supplies of energy. It will leave us with a situation that will prove nothing more or less than the prolongation of the thirties—and who can tell what the outcome of such a situation would be?
  5.50 pm
  Mr. J. Enoch Powell: I am sure that you will understand, Mr. Speaker, the trepidation I feel in accepting your invitation to join the game in the big league. After all, the right hon. Member for Cardiff, South-East (Mr. Callaghan) and the right hon. Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath), who have just addressed the House, both set out, with conviction and sincerity, to put the economy to rights. For both of them, it ended in open and humiliating failure. Therefore, one to whom it has not

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  fallen to accept, or even to share, that responsibility is bounden to submit his observations to the House with hesitation and humility.
  This debate on the Loyal Address and other debates that have preceded it have tended—with the exception of the speech of the right hon. Member for Sidcup—to consist of a barrage and counter-barrage of selective quotations of statistics, matching one selected period that just happens to be of one political colour against another period of the opposite political colour, all of them attributing to those political colours and to the policies of those Administrations the growing misfortunes that the speakers detect.
  The amendment belongs to that style of debate, but the debate itself is overshadowed by a grim reality —the grim reality of the perpetual and persistent increases in unemployment, till it now stands at between 2 million and 3 million. The proposition before the House states that the Government's economic policies are responsible for that effect.
  The speech of the right hon. Member for Leeds, East (Mr. Healey) was weak in one respect. It was clear that he did not like the Government's policies. It was also clear that he does not like the current economic situation. What was weak, if not altogether missing, was any clear explanation of the causal link between the two. If one were to ask any Opposition Member or any opponent or critic of the Government what was causing such havoc, one would receive two replies. It would be said that the Government's savage cuts in public expenditure were responsible, or, alternatively, that it was the rigorous, rigid and cruel maintenance of their grip on the money supply.
  On Monday, the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced that there would be a revision of public expenditure in the coming year. He said that it would be increased under some heads by £1,130 million and that it would be reduced under other heads by £1,710 million. That difference of £580 million, a mere drop in the ocean, is the sole point on which the whole pyramid of the accusation rests.
  Still, all that is to occur next year; it has not happened yet. Presumably, our present discontents cannot arise from that announcement. So what about current expenditure? One of the papers circulated reminds us that this year the Chancellor of the Exchequer intended public expenditure to be £1 billion—out of £77 billion—less than in the previous year— representing a reduction of just over 1 per cent. in public expenditure. Is that theory the gravamen of the accusation that these policies are the cause of our predicament? The answer is "No, not really." For in the same breath the Chancellor of the Exchequer told us that that is not what happened. He said that there had been an unexpected increase of £1·5 billion in public expenditure, for which he had not planned. He said that there had been a reduction of £1·5 billion in revenue. What a gratifying Keynesian scene — an increase in public expenditure and a reduction in taxation. Just what the doctors ordered. It is all very well for the right hon. Member for Leeds, East to say "Not enough, not enough." His trouble is that we are not facing a falling public expenditure and rising taxation. In current months, we face a reduction in the yield of taxation and an increase in public expenditure.
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  Is money supply, then, at the root of the problem? In one of his inconsistent passages, the right hon. Member for Leeds, East admitted that the money supply could not be the cause, because the Government had not succeeded in securing a grip in the money supply, although they had set out to do so.
  We can never, I am sure, come to grips with the nation's problem by thus attempting to encapsulate a year and a half of Government policy and a year and a half of experience and trying to relate the one exclusively to the other, particularly as the factors do not match.
  We must take into account instead that this year's unemployment is probably not, alas, the culmination but the latest stage of a process that has endured for at least a decade. I shall not weary the House by going back over more decades, for the decade that began in 1970 includes all the events I need to mention. We are duty bound to ask — even if we cannot answer satisfactorily — why unemployment, with very few variations, mounted steadily despite all the changes in that decade.
  Take oil and the balance of payments. The fact that we are now in near balance on current account because of oil has been mentioned as a possible explanation. What does the record say? From 1970 to 1973 we were broadly in balance on current account. To use that accursed expression, the nation was "paying its way", but as it paid its way through those years unemployment began to mount. Then our current account went into deficit; it went into deeper and still deeper deficit. Yet unemployment continued to mount. The right hon. Member for Sidcup said that in the past year or two there had been another reversal. Once again we are paying our way, yet still unemployment continues to mount. It is impossible to sustain the proposition that somehow this secular upward movement of unemployment is a consequence of the composition of the trading account of this country with the rest of the world.
  Mr. Alexander W. Lyon: Will the right hon. Gentleman explain why, between 1974 and 1979, although unemployment mounted by 700,000, the number of jobs dropped by only 20,000, but in the last six months the number of jobs has dropped by about 700,000?
  Mr. Powell: We can all draw attention to the variations throughout this whole period in the rate of the emerging phenomenon of heavy unemployment. But that does not permit us to grasp at temporary and chance factors and assign to them the responsibility for that with which we are confronted.
  Is it perhaps the value of the pound sterling, the intolerably strong pound, for which we so devoutly prayed over many years and have treated as a curse since it came to us at last? No, it is not that. Through all the years when the pound was declining as though it would "go through the floor", as the phrase used to be, unemployment mounted, and when it turned and came up again and strengthened unemployment still went on mounting.
  Is it the incidence of inflation? Inflation has varied in its intensity during the 10 years from 1970 to 1980, but I challenge anyone to find the means of matching the fluctuations of the inflation rate with any alteration in the upward movement and progress of unemployment.
  We are not entitled to ignore, as the motion deliberately ignores, this larger scene. The nation will despise us if, instead of facing it honestly, we take refuge in a battle with peashooters.

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  What type of causation produces a strong secular change of this kind?
  Mr. Frank Hooley: In the 10 years from 1968 to 1978 the work force steadily increased. There were 1 million more women employed in 1978 than in 1968. The right hon. Gentleman is confusing the technical insured population figure in that period with what happened in real terms to people in work.
  Mr. Powell: I am surprised at the hon. Gentleman for desiring to wish away a phenomenon with which the British people are very well acquainted. They know very well that this reality of unemployment can run concurrently with an increase in the absolute level of unemployment. What we face is the fact that emerging over that period of 10 years is an increasing inability to find the need and the pattern of production which will fully, or nearly fully, employ our population.
  I submit that a movement so secular and pronounced must correspond to some deep change in the pattern of this country's relationship with the rest of the world and the pattern of its own society and economy, but simply because we are faced with an unsolved problem, a graph for which we cannot find a fit, we ought not to take refuge in mere pretence. We should deal with what we know, with what we can see and with what is not open to dispute.
  What is not open to dispute about the whole of that period is that the economy and employment have, at the very least, not benefited from the phenomenon of almost steadily increasing inflation. No longer are there any voices prepared to say "If only we could have a higher rate of inflation, all would be well." Those voices, at any rate, have fallen silent. Nor is there any dispute that if a Government spend vast sums in excess of those which they receive in revenue, two consequences follow. One is an intolerable burden placed upon other investment, including productive investment—that is expressed by the interest rate—and the other is the necessity for that Government to monetarise debt and cause inflation.
  On Monday, the right hon. Member for Leeds, East made merry with the public sector borrowing requirement — the excess of the Government's actual expenditure over incoming revenue. The right hon. Gentleman said that the Chancellor
  "is prepared to accept a PSBR £3 billion higher than he told us … Why is he not prepared to allow another £7 billion to be added to the PSBR in the coming year?"—[Official Report, 24 November 1980; Vol. 994, c. 318.]
  I was reminded of that famous quip of Richard Bentley against a fallacy of Boyle:
  "The gentleman's logic is that of a man who would say that if Milo the athlete could carry an ox, therefore he could carry a brace of elephants. Such is Mr. Boyle's reasoning."
  In the days when the right hon. Gentleman was not discharging the easier task of moving amendments to the Address but was responsible for the nation's finances, it was not his experience or advice that if we had got an excess £3 billion on the PSBR we should put another £7 billion on top. The right hon. Gentleman did not do that in a period when unemployment was visibly increasing at a rate not far off the rate at which it is increasing today. The right hon. Gentleman did not say that we should put £10 billion on top of £10 billion to make a £20 billion public sector borrowing requirement. We know, and he knows, what everyone today knows: that the result is
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  ruinous. It may or may not be related causally to the phenomenon of unemployment, but it is ruinous in its own right, ruinous of society and ruinous of government.
  The Government have already announced that they intend to introduce measures which will add £2 billion to the revenue in the coming financial year. I hope that the Chancellor selected those measures for mention now only because they required six months' notice to yield a full year's return in 1981–82. The right hon. and learned Gentleman dare not face 1981–82 with the size of uncovered public sector borrowing requirement which has fallen to his lot in 1980–81.
  There is only one major step that the Chancellor can take which will restore honesty to this country's public finance. Public expenditure will run at approximately or a little more than the level that is forecast. I want to look forward, not back, but one of the mistakes made by the Government on taking office 18 months ago was greatly to over-estimate the flexibility and compressibility of the total of public expenditure. There is in practice only one side of the account on which the Chancellor can operate—the revenue side.
  In order to do that, it will not be sufficient for him just to find two sacrificial lambs, smallish lambs, for the slaughter — oil, because everyone is prepared to take something out of oil; and the insurance contribution, because it is not really taxation, is it? Yes, of course it is, but it is in some ways an easy option. That will not see the right hon. and learned Gentleman through. He must get from other sources a large additional revenue.
  Let me put a figure on it by way of example. Does not the EEC have a special word for that? Yes, in EEC terminology it is called "illustrative". So let me offer an illustrative figure of £4 billion or £5 billion. Very well, so there is £6 billion or £7 billion extra on revenue to match the soaring borrowing requirement with which the Chancellor is confronted. Then he can take from the industry of this country the burden which the Government's necessity of attempting to borrow these huge sums places upon it.
  Let no one imagine — it is an easy fallacy to propagate — that this will somehow take away from people something that they have got. That is not so. As long as the Government are spending at a given rate, that amount of resources is being derived from the people of this country. If it is not coming by taxation, it is coming from savings, and if it is not coming from savings it is coming through inflation, which transfers resources from the people to the Government as surely as any tax does.
  Therefore, what the Government are called upon to do in order to restore honesty to public finance is not to "take money out of the economy"—it is a vulgar fallacy that is encapsulated in the phrase. They are called upon to finance, to enable the country to finance — honestly, openly and in the proper way; graduate it as one pleases — that which the country is determined to spend, is bound to spend and, overwhelmingly, ought to spend.
  If the Government can make the country understand that that is what they are asking of it and that that is what they intend to do—that they intend that this country, having taken its decisions on how it shall live, what it shall spend and what shall be its public services, shall finance those honestly and not dishonestly, openly and not covertly—I believe that the Government will have the

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  support of the country, without which no Government can enable a nation to face the economic changes which impend over the United Kingdom.
  6.12 pm
  Sir William Clark: I agree very much with the right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell) when he speaks about the public sector borrowing requirement, to which I shall return later.
  My right hon. and learned Friend the Chancellor was absolutely right in his statement on Monday. I think that the recession is much deeper than any of us thought it would be. It is unfair of Opposition Members to deride the Chancellor for making a statement to the House. I remind hon. Members that it is normal for the Chancellor, about half-way through the fiscal year, to give a report on what should be happening the following year.
  In addition to the recession, not all of us have taken on board what were the unpaid cheques that we inherited from the previous Administration. One of the greatest was that left by Professor Clegg. Obviously, that distorted what was thought to be the PSBR for the current year.
  Before returning to that matter, perhaps I may nail the accusation about pensioners. It should be remembered that the present Government have kept faith with pensioners. During the period of the previous Labour Government, pensioners fell behind financially. In the first increase in pensions given under the present Government, and in the recent increase, we have kept the pensioners up to scratch in relation to inflation, even making up the backlog left by the Labour Government.
  We must be realistic about our social benefits. Many people talk about the retired pensioner as if he were living on the poverty line. Some pensioners are short of money and are living in poor circumstances, but not all of them. When one remembers that in the private sector it depends on the profitability of a particular firm as to whether an increase is given, I do not think that one can say that welfare benefits in the other sector must be exempted altogether from inflation. But, if this happens, in no circumstances can we carry out this slight reduction of 1 per cent. under the inflation rate if at the same time we do not do something about the index-linked pensions in the public sector. We cannot possibly single out merely the retirement pensioner.
  There is growing concern in the country, particularly in the private sector, apart from the fact that the private sector thinks that it has taken most of the squeeze in the economy, about the business of pensions, in which the public sector which enjoys inflation-proof pensions is compared with the private sector. Even in private sector pension schemes there will be some element of inflation-proofing—probably between 3 per cent. and 5 per cent. This is creating two nations. I do not think that the Government can allow the public sector to be immunised against inflation at the expense of the private sector. After all, all these pensions and all Government expenditure come from the taxpayer in the last resort.
  Mr. John Page: Does my hon. Friend accept the view, therefore, following on from what he said, that those who have index-linked pensions have at present the greatest possible reason for low wage demands and the reduction of inflation, because otherwise the rest simply will not stick for what they are getting now?
  Sir William Clark: I do not know whether I go all the way with my hon. Friend on that matter. The point that I am trying to make is that there is a distinct difference between the treatment of a private pensioner and the treatment of a public pensioner. If we are to do something about not automatically increasing welfare benefits, including retirement pensions, all that I can say to the Chancellor is that the growing concern about public pensions must be dealt with.
  I agree with the right hon. Member for Down, South that we need more cuts. I welcome the cuts that have taken place in the Civil Service, of about 35,000 out of about 700,000. I wish that it could be cut much more. I suppose that it is self-criticism to say that I do not think that we have vigorously tackled the matter of public sector staff. In the private sector we have seen that the unemployment figures have been increasing, but that is because there are more people out of work in the private sector than in the public sector. We must be more vigorous in cutting public sector staff. The private sector has had to do so for cash reasons, and there is no reason why we should not do the same in the public sector.
  I regret the projected increase in the PSBR. Obviously, I do not agree with the right hon. Member for Leeds, East (Mr. Healey), who wants even an increased PSBR of more than £10 billion. That is ridiculous. There are two culprits to blame for the public sector borrowing requirement—nationalised industries and local authorities.
  I hope that the Prime Minister and the Cabinet will pay more attention to nationalised industries. We promised before and after the election that we would act on denationalisation, or privatisation as it is now called. Are we satisfied that we have gone far enough? We have sold Ferranti and made a few other small disposals, but I wish that the Government would get a move on with oil, British Airways, telecommunications and so on.
  It may be claimed that we cannot sell British Airways, for example, because they are not profitable and we would not get a good price. But convertible debentures would solve that problem and the sale of the airline would not only swap assets from the public sector to the private sector and make the airline more competitive; it would allow employees to take part in share option schemes, which are another plank of Conservative policy. I wish that the Government would look at other ways of selling public assets.
  Nationalised industries have many hidden assets. Surplus land, especially that owned by British Rail, is only one example. We are having to borrow at high rates of interest. Why do we not get rid of all the surplus land? I admire Labour Members, because they are the best spenders of other people's money that I know. But they are only good at spending other people's money.
  The second culprits are local authorities. They have a phenomenal amount of surplus assets. For example, a recent report shows that the Greater London Council owns masses of surplus property. What is it doing with 2,700 shops? Why can they not be sold? What does the GLC want with the London Pavilion? Why does it not get rid of its industrial estates? The most recent estimate indicates that the GLC has surplus assets of £1,000 million. The council has more than 15,000 separate items among its surplus assets. Imagine the administrative staff needed to look after those assets. If the GLC wants to start new developments, it will come to the Government to borrow

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  the money and the public sector borrowing requirement will increase. Yet the GLC is sitting on masses of surplus assets. That situation is repeated throughout the country.
  Mr. Bruce-Gardyne: Does my hon. Friend agree that there is a third culprit, namely, the Ministry of Defence? No other Ministry has so consistently overspent its cash limits. It should be brought back into the discipline of cash limits.
  Sir William Clark: I would have mentioned the subject of defence, but I knew that my hon. Friend the Member for Knutsford (Mr. Bruce-Gardyne) intended to raise it in the debate. I want to keep to my time limit.
  I welcome the reduction of 2 per cent. in the MLR. That will help business. It has been suggested that there should have been a 4 per cent. reduction, but I do not believe that even that would affect our exchange rate. There might be a hiccup in the value of the pound, but it would soon return to 2·398 or 2·3 against the dollar.
  As the right hon. Member for Down, South said, when our currency was weak we were clamouring for a strong pound. Now that we have a strong pound, there are those who say that we need a weak pound. What is it to be? One of the reasons for the strong pound is the petrocurrency that we enjoy. The second reason, which is overlooked by the Opposition, is that, for some reason or another, foreigners have faith in the way that our economy is going. Confidence in the country, coupled with our North Sea oil, is leading to a high value of the pound.
  There have been arguments about the automatic increase in national insurance contributions by employers. My right hon. and learned Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer was fair in his explanation. The Opposition ask why he did not mention the £386 million, but they do not refer to the action that he took on stock relief. Industry enjoys about £1,300 million a year in stock relief, and on 14 November my right hon. and learned Friend introduced a scheme to cancel the clawback. That involves savings of between £300 million and £400 million for industry and cancels out the £386 million increase in national insurance contributions. The Opposition's complaints are bogus.
  I take the point made by the right hon. Member for Down, South about increased taxation but I do not agree with him, because an increase in taxation would have the usual result of killing incentive. I accept that we shall not be able to reduce the PSBR by much, but I hope that my right hon. and learned Friend the Chancellor will not forget that tobacco and alcohol, which are not necessities of life, could bear higher taxes in the Budget.
  There are criticisms of the course on which we are embarked. Some say that we are too strong on monetarism and others complain that we are too weak. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. There are encouraging signs — I put it no higher than that — that the policy is working. Inflation is down to 15·4 per cent. on an annual basis, under 10 per cent. on a six-monthly basis and about 7 per cent. on a monthly basis. That is a plus. One of the main enemies of any economy is inflation. It erodes wages, incomes and savings. We must do everything possible to eradicate it. The erosion of past years must stop.
  The second encouraging sign is that there appears to be a change of attitude among the working population. The ordinary trade unionist no longer listens with such attention to the strident voices of some trade union leaders.
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  Of course, business men grumble. I have never known a business man who did not grumble; they are as bad as farmers. But most business men that I know agree, even though they may grumble, that we are on the right course and that we must cut the public sector and stop overspending.
  There are many, inside and outside the House, who try to run away from problems. They are fainthearted, looking over their shoulder for electoral advantage or whatever. I advise my right hon. and learned Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer to pay no attention to the faint hearts. Let us keep on the present course. Many of those who are advocating a different course have a wishbone where their backbone should be.
  6.30 pm
  Mr. Douglas Jay: For the first time in my life I find myself almost wholly in agreement with the right hon. Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath) and almost wholly in disagreement with the right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell).
  The last few months and this debate have proved that the policy of the monetary extremists in the Cabinet is unworkable. They have now had to admit defeat, first when the Chancellor announced his 6 per cent. pay norm in the public sector and secondly when he announced an overshoot of nearly 50 per cent. this year in the PSBR. Only six months ago, Ministers were all saying that a pay norm of any kind was unnecessary. If they cannot control the PSBR, or the money supply as they call it, their policies cannot work. We now learn that the PSBR that was supposed to be limited to £8·5 billion for the whole year is expected to exceed £11 billion. The Secretary of State for Industry is reported as summing up the situation in this way:
  "We have achieved part of our purposes by methods we never had in mind … What has been happening we don't really know."
  In order to help the Secretary of State to find his way, I shall record briefly what I think are the economic fallacies which have landed Ministers in the muddle in which we see them today. The first and worst—this is ignored by the right hon. Member for Down, South—is that the monetarists mistake cost inflation for demand inflation and then proceed to treat it as such. The result inevitably — it is the cause for which the right hon. Gentleman was looking—is that demand is held down and costs rise and unemployment soars. That is what has been happening. Secondly, they confuse the quantity of money with the flow of spending and so try to restrain the wrong thing, which, in this case, they then find cannot be measured anyway. Thirdly, they think that the volume of bank money is determined by public borrowing when it is really largely determined by private borrowing. That has been the case in this country since the war.
  The Prime Minister, in this debate, propounded yet another fallacy in saying that the public sector must be prevented from pre-empting, as she called it, resources from the private sector. When 15 per cent. of the labour and capital of the whole nation is unemployed, the public sector does not poach from the private sector. All it does, by spending or investing, is to prevent unemployment being a hit higher than it is already.
  As a result of these confusions, we find the nation today plunged into what is not really a mysterious recession, somehow coming from Heaven, but an old-fashioned,

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  man-made cumulative deflation. Of course, the monetary cranks still do not understand that deflation of this kind is cumulative, because one man's spending is another man's income. As the Financial Times said on 15 November,
  "It has been estimated that each additional unemployed worker is equivalent, directly or indirectly, to an extra £5,000 of public sector borrowing."
  The cost of 2 million unemployed to the Budget is something like £10 billion. That is probably an underestimate. It is about the same as the whole PSBR at the present time.
  It was because the deflationary process was cumulative that the German and American deflations of 1929 to 1933 did not stop of their own accord but went on to the point of collapse which brought Hitler to power in Germany and continued until Roosevelt totally reversed the policy in the United States. We are now confronted again by what is a man-made deflation and not a Heaven-sent recession. I suspect sometimes that the epitaph on this Government will be "They made a wilderness and called it a recession."
  The central absurdity in the whole monetary mania is the belief that our economic problems can be solved by producing less and less real goods and employing fewer and fewer people. According to the CBI figures—they are extraordinary figures — quoted in the Financial Times on Monday, United Kingdom manufacturing output is expected to fall in 1980 and 1981 by 14 per cent., whereas in 1930 and 1931, two of the worst years of the depression, it fell by only 11 per cent. That is an amazing comment on the Government's policies.
  United Kingdom real national output today must be running at almost 15 per cent. below our existing productive capacity. If it is only 10 per cent. below, we are losing about £20 billion of national income every year as a result of these policies, together, as we know, with some international factors. That £20 billion is about twice the PSBR that we are now crucifying ourselves to reduce by about £1 million. It is by ignoring these central truths that the Government have achieved the astonishing feat of creating the worst economic situation since the war in the middle of an unprecedented oil bonanza.
  In effect, a large part of the Government's policy, particularly in relation to the public sector, is to pay people to do nothing rather than to pay them to do some work and then to claim that something has been achieved by throwing them into unemployment. Another consequence of deflation and increasing unemployment is that productivity is falling and more restrictive practices will undoubtedly be encouraged, as has always happened before.
  There is, of course, an alternative. A wise economic policy would aim at producing the maximum of real goods and services and would use the monetary instrument to achieve that. Then the Budget problem would become, in time, soluble. The revenues would flow in and the monetary deficit would disappear. I give just one example. In housing, all over London at present there are derelict homes needing repair. There are ill-housed families needing accommodation. There are unemployed building workers without jobs. Nothing is necessary to bring the three together except the money that should be the instrument for doing so. That is denied. The houses,
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  incidentally, are steadily deteriorating past repair. I could develop the examples of defence and shipbuilding if there were more time.
  Mr. Harold Macmillan, another Conservative ex-Prime Minister who has been giving us his advice, showed more wisdom than the monetarist cranks on the Treasury Bench in saying quite simply, in a broadcast a few weeks ago, that the answer is not more deflation; it is reflation. The answer is not to have people out of work but to use the plant and machinery to produce more wealth. Nevertheless, I must say that we should not fall into the opposite illusion of thinking that one can have successful expansion without any sort of incomes policy. One cannot, for the following basic reason.
  Of course, if costs in money terms do not rise faster than output, there is no fundamental difficulty or obstacle to full employment. But if money costs rise faster than output—this is what we have all been contending with over the past 10 years — any Government will find themselves in the purely arithmetical dilemma that, if they raise the money demand at as fast a rate as costs, prices must rise. If that is not done, the demand will fall below costs and unemployment will grow, as is happening now. That is the basic dilemma facing the whole Western world. In crude terms, unless there is some form of incomes policy there cannot be full employment without price inflation.
  I believe that there is a constructive alternative policy for this country in the present situation. First, let us lower interest rates and get them quickly down to single figures. It is sheer nonsense for the Prime Minister to say that the Government cannot control or influence interest rates. They were controlled effectively from 1940 to 1950 by directly rationing bank credit. Incidentally, that is what the French Government are doing at the moment.
  Secondly, let us allow the exchange rate to fall and, if necessary, bring it down further by acquiring higher exchange reserves. Thirdly, let us devise an agreed voluntary and long-term incomes policy covering dividends and prices as well as salaries and wages.
  Mr. J. Enoch Powell: Fourthly, make it work.
  Mr. Jay: Fourthly, when we have done that, let us expand purchasing power, mainly through capital investment, both public and private.
  Finally, the same all-out support should be given to our exporting firms, in particular private exporting firms, as the Japanese, French and many other Governments are giving at present but which our Government are not doing. May I add to that list that we should apply our approved tariff to all industrial imports, from whichever part of the world they come.
  That, I believe, is the way ahead, and there is really no obstacle to it, except the monetarist extremists in the Treasury.
  6.42 pm
  Mr. Maurice Macmillan: As the right hon. Member for Battersea, North (Mr. Jay) quoted a specific ex-Prime Minister, perhaps I should remind the House that I spent much of my early career on the Back Benches attacking the economic policies of the Government of which that Prime Minister was the head. However, I shall not pursue that course this evening.
  I am bound to say that, even if the Government have not been blown off course, they appear to have changed

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  from the starboard to the port tack. I for one welcome that change. Although the basic direction may be continued, I hope that we shall now see some basic changes of method.
  Of course, some form of monetary policy is necessary, as is some form of control over money supply. But must we have what is tantamount to an old-fashioned squeeze? Could we not have a rather more sophisticated, more effective and more flexible monetary policy? Must the policy be based on the indicator of sterling M3, which in My opinion is erratic and uncertain and produces erratic and unpredictable figures for growth in the money supply?
  My right hon. and learned Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer may think that he has radar to steer the ship of State through fog and pack ice, but all he has is a rather weak foghorn which, echoing off the icebergs, is listened to by a slightly deaf navigator. We need to have not only changes in technology but a far more basic change in attitudes generally.
  There is one point on which I agree with some of my right hon. and hon. Friends who have spoken and, indeed, with the right hon. Member for Battersea, North. We should remember the other side of the inflation equation; not only limiting the supply of money that is available but taking more positive steps towards increasing the supply of marketable goods and services. I should like to see a further two percentage points taken off interest rates as soon as possible, because there seems to be a lack of willingness and ability among people to invest in productive industry.
  I want to say a few words about attitudes to public expenditure and about industrial policies, and I shall end on an international note.
  One of the reasons why successive Governments have failed to control public spending properly is that they have not distinguished between capital and current expenditure, nor between the purposes for which money is raised or borrowed. In the old days we had expenditure above and below the line. When it comes to borrowing, there is a big difference, as businesses know only too well, between borrowing to invest and borrowing to pay the current bills.
  I agree with what the right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell) said about raising taxation, provided that taxation is raised only to cover current spending and not necessary capital expenditure as well. It is ridiculous to expect the Government, any more than private industry, inevitably to finance solely out of current income the expansion of, or new investment in, nationalised industries and other concerns.
  Moreover, the Government should pay far more attention to the different forms of capital expenditure. They are heavily engaged in the type of investment from which we should expect a commercial return — for example, the sale of electricity and gas.
  May I say, in passing, that I hope that the Government will not try to meet the bills of other sectors of the nationalised industries by putting up unduly the prices of the profitable sectors—above all, of energy —beyond the prices which our competitors have to pay, particularly as the gas and electricity industries are making a profit.
  There are some types of public expenditure on capital account from which one can expect to get an economic benefit, either in saving current spending or in the infrastructure generally. There is also social capital in the form of new hospitals, schools and so on which may well increase current expenditure.
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  I beg my right hon. and hon. Friends, in approaching problems of taxation and borrowing, to think a little more carefully about the purposes for which they are seeking to raise money. In so doing, they should try to divest themselves and local authorities as far as possible from the day-to-day provision of those services which could equally well be provided by private enterprise. In that way they would be imposing upon private enterprise the necessity to invest and removing that investment from the public sector borrowing requirement.
  There is much confusion between the functions of control, direction and management, both in industry and government. It is not necessary, for example, for local authorities actually to run refuse collection services, provided that they ensure that those services are satisfactory to the public. That is the second point I wish to make about public spending, that the Government should seek to limit their commitment in current expenditure to where it is absolutely necessary and to distinguish in capital expenditure between much-needed investment and wasting money on lost causes.
  In some ways, similar problems face the Government in relation to their industrial policies, problems of structure and organisation. It is my belief that, until now, the Government have rather forgotten that they are dealing with large organisations which are in some ways outside the influences of the market as well as market considerations themselves. The large transnational companies and the well-organised corporations, which of necessity have such long-term investment plans, cannot respond actively to market influences, and this applies especially in the high technology industries.
  In dealing with what might be called organised corporate power, I ask the Government to look a little more carefully at their mechanisms and techniques and see whether they can develop to some extent the functions performed by the NEDC.
  Perhaps most important of all is the effect of Government policies not on the larger companies but on the smaller and growing and innovating companies. We in this country have a lower proportion of medium-sized businesses than almost any other in the Western world. We have made special concessions to small businesses, but that is not quite enough because there is the danger that those concessions will encourage small businesses not to grow, whereas their own as well as the national interest requires the Government to do everything possible to encourage their expansion.
  I hope that the Government will look at methods of helping small businesses to finance their own expansion, perhaps by fiscal means or possibly by guaranteed loans. I hope, too, that the Government's financial policies will put pressure on the banks to fulfil the proper function of bankers and consider the nature of the concerns which they are being asked to finance rather than simply acting as usurers or moneylenders putting out money against asset values only.
  It is my hope also that the Government will use fiscal or other methods to encourage the employees of larger companies to branch out on their own with their own expertise similar to the schemes in the United States of providing "venture capital" and so on. I find it intolerable that there is so much to be done and so much wasted capacity. I cannot believe that this is absolutely necessary in the control of inflation.

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  It is absurd that we in the West generally and in the United Kingdom in particular should now be facing a situation where it is likely that we shall be called upon to make greater contributions to our own defence and still be unable to employ the idle capacity in management and workpeople's skills and the actual physical equipment in our factories and shipyards. There are difficulties, and I do not seek to minimise them, not least in people's attitudes in industry, both management and workpeople.
  Perhaps one of the changes of attitude required if policies of this sort are to be followed without leading to greater inflation is a new look at the word "productivity". Until now, it has meant, in the minds of trade union leaders, workpeople, managers and the Government, schemes for producing the same amount of goods with fewer people at work. Most countries look at it the other way round. In their eyes, "productivity" means schemes for producing more goods with the same number of people, reducing unit costs in order that they may be able to take on more people to produce still more goods. It is that cycle which we in the United Kingdom have never really succeeded in achieving.
  After all these years, I have come to the conclusion that part of the problem at least lies in a negative attitude of mind which has failed to see that, by doing something better and by reducing its price while increasing its quality, one is finding a new market which will lead not to fewer people being needed but more, because of the expansion in markets at home and overseas.
  Heaven knows, there is enough to be done abroad. My right hon. Friend the Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath) said a great deal about it, and I do not want to cover ground which he has already covered, but as long ago as 1973 it became quite clear that some sort of international mechanism was needed to steer the great wealth of the oil-producing countries into investment to produce new industries and, for example, desalination and irrigation schemes in their own countries as well as in the developing countries. But this cannot be done other than on the basis of some international effort, and one which I hope will be led by a British Government.
  Of course, the reduction of inflation is extremely important, but let it be done by a monetary policy which makes sense and not by a squeeze—by an attempt to create new wealth as well as to restrain activity. I ask the Government to try to find more refined and selective methods of saving public expenditure, based on a more sophisticated analysis of what it is for. I ask them to give at least a little nibble of the carrot to industry, especially small and medium businesses and the innovators.
  When it comes to the world situation, I beg my right hon. and hon. Friends to cease blaming all our problems on it and simply reacting to it but to adopt positive policies and take a lead.
  It was said of an ancient but rather decadent people that they had waited so long for something to happen that they had forgotten that they could make happenings themselves. I beg the Government to act so that the same can never be said of the United Kingdom.
  6.57 pm
  Mr. Richard Wainwright: Just as we on the Liberal Bench welcomed warmly the speeches of the right hon. Members for Sidcup (Mr. Heath) and
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  Battersea, North (Mr. Jay), so I found much to endorse in what the right hon. Member for Farnham (Mr. Macmillan) said, especially his comments about the murder of small businesses, about the tragedy of deliberately wasted production capacity and about the need to encourage more of that kind of public spending which creates wealth by adding to our capital stock, against which there seems to be such childish prejudice in the Government just because it happens to be public spending. All these matters are covered in the Liberal amendment for this debate, which has been on the Order Paper all this week. I hope to return to it briefly in a moment, but first I must refer to the Liberal view of the way in which the Chancellor of the Exchequer has treated the House this week.
  It is essential for good order and mutual trust in this House that whenever there is a single set of Government measures they should be fully communicated to us in a single statement. What we find intolerable in what the right hon. and learned Gentleman has done is that the story of £1 billion of national insurance contribution revenue was put to us in an oral statement to the House earlier in the week and then—lo and behold!—another £½ billion increase in the revenue from that same national insurance was put to us in a written statement smuggled out when everyone had gone home.
  It is intolerable that the single matter should be separated in this way. When the Chancellor of the Exchequer told the House:
  "The additional contribution income will be about £1 billion in 1981–82"—[Official Report, 24 November 1980; Vol. 994, c. 316]
  naturally every hon. Member thought that that was the end of the story. To be told a few days later, by the device of a written answer, that there was another £½ billion—half as much again—coming under the same heading is an intolerable way to treat the House.
  The other aspect that has not had full consideration is the way in which Ministers of recent Governments of both parties have somehow led the House to believe that the endless and very dangerous rise in the national insurance tax—which is what it is—is somehow automatic and is not the result of deliberate ministerial decision. That is not wholly true. As I tried to remind the Chancellor when he made his statement—he made no reaction then—the Comptroller and Auditor General has made it clear that the only obligation under the statute is that the national insurance fund should stand in the longer term in proper relation to the demands made upon it. In other words, there is no need for a year-to-year balance of the fund but, naturally, over the years the fund must be kept in balance. Since there is currently a large surplus in it, which the Government jealously treasure as a means of financing public sector borrowing, there is no need for the full increase in the employee's contribution, which the Government are inflicting as a primitive form of taxation.
  The same applies to the controversial proposal to lift the top income limit for the contribution, which caused all the storm this week. It is false to use the word "automatic", as the Chancellor did this afternoon, because the 1975 Act deliberately gives the Government a wide area of discretion. They can raise the limit by between six and a half times and seven and a half times the basic rate of pensions. It is, therefore, crystal clear that some member of the Government had to make a deliberate choice that presumably was ratified by the Cabinet. Their choice was to go to the top of the band with a limit of £200 a week.

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  That was a deliberate decision. It did not happen automatically, and the decision ought to have been communicated openly and frankly to the House.
  I come next to the whole question of the Government's strategy or lack of it. The right hon. Member for Sidcup conspicuously welcomed the fact that the Government had got rid of their monetary obsession and were now much more flexible. I wish that I could be as cheerful about it as the right hon. Gentleman. The Government seem to me to be clinging obstinately to the rags and tatters of their Monetary obsession. I see no sign that they have put anything constructive in its place. It is, therefore, a little early to be optimistic on this score.
  In my experience of fundamentalists—that is what we are dealing with in the Government—two things can happen when they lose their faith. Either they go to the dogs and the bottle—which they usually do—or they turn to some other enthusiasm with equal naivety and equal vigour. I cannot pronounce at the moment which way these disillusioned fundamentalists in the Government will go, but at the moment I see no sign of any new enthusiasm, and I detect from the depressed visages on the Government Front Bench this afternoon that it may be the dogs and the bottle.
  I can understand all three Treasury Ministers being profoundly depressed. Never in the long and fascinating history of relationships between the Bank of England and Nos. 10 and 11 Downing Street has such a gigantic and public snook been so obviously cocked at the Treasury and the Prime Minister as was done by the Bank of England this week, when it had the disagreeable task of trying to make sense of the drop in MLR. I hope that the House will bear with me if I give my evidence for that in quoting the Bank of England's notes to editors.
  The Bank's literary style is not as vivid as that of the Leader of the Opposition. Of course, we do not expect anything in the way of dramatic language, but the note by the Bank rejects the whole monetary approach in this remarkable way:
  "Although £M3 and other broad monetary aggregates have grown rapidly in recent months"—
  and then it goes on to say that there has been a
  "sharp decline in the rate of inflation,"
  all indicating
  "that the policy is having a strong restraining influence."
  In other words, inflation is being brought down wholly contrary to the movement of the money stock. That is the most obvious disavowal of monetarism that could be expected from a sober institution.
  I believe that the Government are not sincere in the priority that they claim so stridently to give to inflation. I have believed that throughout their period of office, because if they genuinely thought that they could stop inflation not even they would have the gall to issue Government stock saddling the people with rates of interest as high as 13 or 14 per cent. well into the next century. The Government know that their only way of making that appalling burden of debt tolerable to the British people in future is to reduce the real interest rate by continued inflation.
  How right were other speakers this afternoon to say that we now have not some scientific application of monetary policy but a thoroughly old-fashioned 1920s and 1930s slump, aggravated by the fact that sterling is now a strong petrocurrency. We are back with the additional burden of sterling's over-valuation, back in the economic days of
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  Baldwin, Neville Chamberlain and Ramsay MacDonald. To the last I am beginning to think that the Chancellor has a very strong resemblance. When the Chancellor comes to the Dispatch Box within the next few weeks, as I confidently expect that he will, to say "Never mind, Britain is going on and on and on, and up and up and up", we shall know that he has become identical in speech with the late Ramsay MacDonald.
  The tragedy of the whole absurd experiment is that it offers no kind of lasting cure either to the difficulties of inflation or to the horrors of unemployment. One of two events will occur. Either we shall continue with unemployment at a tragically high rate of a constant 2 million or so, rising occasionally to 3 million, or we shall experience a resurgence of inflation. The Government have never been able to give the slightest evidence that they can engineer some kind of recovery, which they may try to do as the election approaches, without immediately returning to the old inflationary pressures.
  Can anyone imagine that trade union negotiators who are so bitter and disappointed at being forced under this threat of deliberate slump to accept humiliating pay settlements have been converted in their hearts and turned into a servile group of cap-touchers simply by the Government's policies? They will, of course, return with full vigour to pressing their case as soon as the threat of heavy unemployment is temporarily lifted.
  I mention that because those of us who have consistently favoured an incomes policy with statutory back-up have always been told that we ignore the problems of re-entry. Of course, if we had a sensible political system there would be no problems of re-entry, because the incomes policy could be sustained from one Government to the next, with some adjustments as people's views changed. However, so long as there is this absurd zig-zag political system the re-entry problems from monetary policy will be every bit as difficult as those emanating from incomes policy. Perhaps because of the bitterness engendered they may be much greater.
  The aspect of the present position to which we bitterly object is a that there is wanton failure to use and also a wanton misuse of the great national resources of this country, which is still one of the wealthiest. An appalling quantity of national resources was squandered in the last 18 months by the runaway explosion in public pay that the Government sat back and encouraged. That enormous explosion has led to the worst and most unjustifiable type of public expenditure. To some extent, that was matched until recently by unnecessarily high settlements in the private sector.
  Mr. Bruce-Gardyne: Will the hon. Gentleman remind the House of his party's attitude to the Clegg comparability commission?
  Mr. Wainwright: We have always strenuously opposed any partial incomes policy. Of course, there is room for a comparability study if it is part of a comprehensive incomes policy for the whole nation. Partial attempts, such as the present 6 per cent. limit, are bound to cause envy, strife and dissension and will eventually come to pieces.
  I have dealt with the misuse of public resources, which has led to so much calamitous overspending in the last year. I turn to the failure to use our national resources. Our national capital stock, as a result of endless cuts in public

  623
  capital expenditure in the last seven years, is now in a perilously rundown condition. It is obsolete and dilapidated, as anybody knows who uses the London Underground, tries to make a long-distance telephone call or uses our road system. As a result, if and when recovery comes Britain will not be equipped to take advantage of it.
  Humiliating situations arise. I am told that British Rail has been forced to add 10 minutes to its proud schedule between London and Glasgow with the new advanced train simply because it has not been able to maintain parts of the track. That must have been a bitter decision. Our road system is going to pieces for lack of attention.
  The chairmen of the nationalised industries have recently spoken up well. All Governments are to blame. The silly point is that we persist in treating the borrowing of nationalised industries for commercial purposes, for the creation of wealth, as part of the public sector borrowing requirement and as if it were to be used to pay civil servants or provide allowances.
  The chairmen of the nationalised industries are an able and underpaid group of people. We believe that they are right to protest, as did the chairman of the National Coal Board, in evidence to the Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee at the end of July. He said that sums of money which are borrowed for profitable investment
  "should not be included in the PSBR any more than private industries' borrowings".
  He added that when the Coal Board's expenditure for creating wealth is included in the PSBR it automatically
  "makes it appear as if it is an undesirable thing, whereas, in fact, with those borrowings we are creating new wealth for the country."
  I shall not detail tonight all the obvious projects which are calling out for attention at a time when skilled people are unemployed and available. We should put a pipeline out to the North Sea oilfields to bring back the gas which is being flared and wasted in enormous quantities. That would have a powerful effect on the steel industry by providing enormous quatities of pipe.
  Like France, we should be overhauling and modernising our telecommunications system. The City of London, which depends on a worldwide efficient telecommunications network, is suffering a great handicap compared with New York and other centres because Sir William Barlow recently had to resign, due to the fact that he was not allowed money for reasonable telecommunications development. That was because of the obsession with the public sector borrowing requirement. British Rail needs an electrification programme. Such schemes should be attended to when industry is in recession.
  Some people say that that is a reckless course, which is bound to increase the money supply. However, they overlook the fantastic asset of an enormously high savings ratio. The British people should be congratulated on the astonishingly high savings ratio that they maintain in spite of high inflation. The ratio is 18 per cent. That gives us a marvellous base on which to borrow for wealth creation.
  We believe that the Government are losing faith in their original doctrine, but they are too stubborn to admit it and are putting nothing in its place. The sooner the Government are out, the better.
  7.15 pm
  Mr. Terence Higgins: I wish to take up the argument of the former Prime Minister, the right hon. Member for Cardiff, South-East (Mr. Callaghan). He suggested that the Government should take steps to reflate demand. I do not believe that there is any longer a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. On the contrary, I believe that if inflation were to accelerate, in the long term that would result in the next round of the cycle in even higher unemployment. I have the greatest respect for the right hon. Gentleman's sincerity, and I share his deep concern about the level of unemployment, but I do not believe that his suggestion is a long-term solution to our problems.
  I shall concentrate on one or two aspects of Government policy. There was a strange coincidence in the press a few days ago. I read two reports of speeches by Professor Friedman and Professor Galbraith. Professor Friedman was saying that the Government were not adopting what he regarded as monetary policy. Professor Galbraith was saying that the Government should press on with their policy to prove that Professor Friedman was wrong.
  Professor Friedman is bound to come out of that better, because he has made it clear in his evidence to the Select Committee that he does not believe that the Government are pursuing a monetarist policy. However, by some of his nifty footwork he has changed his ground somewhat. He is really attacking the method by which the Government are seeking to control the money supply rather than that they are seeking to do so.
  I am puzzled by the myth that the Government are pursuing a monetary policy in some sense. There are a number of reasons that lead one to suppose that they are not doing so. First, according to the statistics, the money supply and the public sector borrowing requirement are way beyond the limit that the Government set out in their targets. Secondly—and here I take issue with my right hon. Friend the Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath)—the Government have not used the interest rates a l'outrance to control the money supply. On the contrary, the evidence of the Governor of the Bank of England to the Select Committee was that they pumped in about £2 billion to prevent interest rates from rising to an even higher level.
  Thirdly, a true monetarist policy must involve a low public sector borrowing requirement and low interest rates as means of controlling money supply and not a high public sector borrowing requirement, which requires high interest rates in order to control money supply. That has been common ground between the Chancellor, myself and many others. The reality is that the Government should be controlling money supply by reducing the PSBR and lowering interest rates. In practice, because they have failed to control public expenditure, the opposite is true, with traumatic effects on industry.
  The whole question of timing is vital. The Government have not succeeded in cutting public expenditure, with the result that PSBR has remained high. That is at the root of our problems. We need not a reversal of policy but a reinforcement of policy. I hope that we shall have a clear statement about what has now happened to the total, in real terms, of public expenditure at the various stages at which we were told that it was to be cut.
  We have been told time and again by the Front Bench that a reduction in public sector borrowing is an essential precondition of a cut in minimum lending rate. However,

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  that is not the situation in which we find ourselves, and yet the minimum lending rate has been cut. It is, therefore, arguable that the Government are not pursuing a monetarist policy but are in danger of pursuing a policy that is close to traditional deflation. That is an important point.
  Again, we were told in the Select Committee that the difference between the Government's policy and deflation was the medium-term financial strategy, which would change expectations. There is much to be said for that view, but a Government cannot have credibility for a medium-term financial strategy if that is always going to start next year. It has not started this year. The Government are way outside the target, both on the money supply and on the public sector borrowing requirement.
  I am, therefore, sorry that almost all the measures announced by the Chancellor this week do not take effect until next April. I should have much preferred to see increases in indirect taxation, particularly, for example, the revenue duty on commodities such as tobacco, which would have brought in revenue straight away. One could then have got back more rigidly to the target and reduced borrowing more rapidly. We should consequently have had real and significant cuts in interest rates, with a beneficial effect on industry. I am sad that the Government have not succeeded in doing that. We have lost yet another six months because we are now taking measures that will not even start to have an effect until next April.
  I should like to say a word or two about the industrial scene. Unemployment is extremely serious, although to a significant extent it does not reflect the fact that the Government have cut public expenditure but rather the fact that they have not. I have some experience in these matters. I believe that unrest will be far greater when redundancy pay runs out than it will at the point at which people become redundant. However, let me say that in South Wales, where many of those who are highly paid in industry have priced themselves out of jobs, it will be very difficult indeed to find jobs that pay anywhere near the same amount as the jobs out of which they have put themselves. That is tragic, and I share the general concern.
  I congratulate the Chancellor, first, on the stock relief that he has given to industry. That point has been slid over. He himself scarcely mentioned it in more than a sentence, although it is very important for industry. Secondly, I stress the importance of the temporary employment subsidy, which is essential if we are not to have a significant increase in unemployment. I hope that my right hon. and learned Friend will take carefully to heart the need to extend that subsidy.
  The Chancellor has also taken effective action by accepting, almost in total, the recommendations of the Select Committee with regard to pay increases in the public sector, both in staging and on fiddling the results by changing the starting date. That did not happen in the official response by the Treasury to the Select Committee report. It came out in the press release issued this week. It is an important step. The cuts in real resources in the past 18 months or so have been offset by inflationary pay settlements in the public sector. The balance has changed between resources and pay and between consumption and investment. I welcome the change that the Chancellor has accepted, although I repeat that timing is important.
  I have referred to the medium-term financial strategy. I do not believe that it would be right to rush into reflation, which would create all the problems that I have
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  mentioned. However, there is need for a long-term strategy, not only on the monetary side but in terms of real resources. Industry has experienced what is said to be a monetarist policy, which appears to be the first part of a medium-term financial strategy. As one looks at the table in the Red Book, one sees that that strategy goes on reducing numbers, and there appears to be no light at the end of the tunnel. If we are to get the supply side right, there will have to be a slimming down in industry, more efficient use of labour and so on. However, we still have to get investment.
  From my experience between 1970 and 1974 I am well aware of how slow industry is to react, whatever the rate of growth in demand. However, if there is no prospect of a situation in which that can happen, there is no prospect of getting the supply side right. I hope, therefore, that the medium-term financial strategy can be augmented by a view expressed by the Government on what they believe will happen to the real level of demand.
  Here we come to a crucial point of explanation of the Government's policy. It has not been made at all clear in the press release this week or in the Gracious Speech how, as the medium-term financial strategy continues, the foundations for a renewal of growth are established. It is not clear why growth suddenly takes off. It could be the resurgence of the world economy, but, against the North Sea oil and exchange rate problems, or benefits, that we face, it seems unlikely that that will be the major factor. Taking the long-term view—and I stress that, because I am not arguing for immediate reflation — unless we assume downward flexibility of real prices and wages so that the demand extends in the technical jargon of the economist, or unless the Government do something to ensure that the splendid and more efficiently produced goods are bought, there is no reason why anyone should invest in or produce such goods. I hope that on a future occasion the Chancellor will take the trouble to explain that fundamental point. It is very' important.
  Mr. Robert Sheldon: The right hon. Gentleman is assuming that the Chancellor has a plan. The manifest conclusion of us all is that he has not.
  Mr. Higgins: The manifest conclusion of us all is no such thing. It is important that the matter should be spelt out and generally understood in the CBI and in industry. I do not agree with the right hon. Gentleman on this occasion, although I often do agree with him. There is an opportunity to get the strategy right. I do not accept the panaceas that have been offered as alternatives. We have lost time. We must recognise that, because we have not succeeded in cutting public expenditure or public borrowing and we have not got interest rates down fast enough. None the less, there is a real prospect that we can build for the future, but we need a better explanation of the policy than we have had hitherto.
  7.27 pm
  Mr. Joel Barnett: I often find myself in agreement with the right hon. Member for Worthing (Mr. Higgins). However, I agree with quite a bit of what he said today, but not when he seemed to accept the myth that public expenditure can be cut with the ease that this Government accepted in their much more irresponsible days of Opposition. They now find that it is not so easy. I have cut more public expenditure in my time

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  than this Government have done, and I speak with experience. The right hon. Gentleman also assumes in far too facile a way that cutting public expenditure in current circumstances is right. There is no evidence to support that.
  Any Government at present would be faced with a most serious situation. We have had about 100 years of relatively poor industrial performance in this country. In addition, we are undoubtedly in a world recession. The right hon. Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath) mentioned the danger of another upsurge in oil prices and how that would create a continuing world recession. That is a serious danger.
  The right hon. Gentleman suggested to his right hon. Friend the Prime Minister—although I am not sure from the way that they looked at each other that that is the right term—that she should instigate a summit in order to try to bring about a recycling of OPEC surpluses. I think that the right hon. Gentleman is right. I think that the Prime Minister should try. However, it would be foolish for anyone managing the economy to assume that the right hon. Lady will succeed. The chance of getting agreement in that area in the short term is, to say the least, extremely slim.
  One is bound to accept that there are no simple solutions to the present economic situation, whether from a monetarist or a Keynesian standpoint. The Government's objective of reducing the rate of inflation is one with which few would disagree. I do not disagree with the objective or with the approach of trying to do so as quickly as possible. The Government will reduce the rate of inflation in the short term. They cannot avoid doing that. Any Government who so massively deflate the economy would be bound to reduce the rate of inflation. That has nothing to do with monetarism or Keynesian policies. I am worried about what will be done in the process.
  The Government are creating the worst possible form of vicious circle. It will require more and more cuts in public expenditure. If the Government cannot find those cuts, the circle will require increases in taxation of the sort suggested by the right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell). If the Government increase taxation next year to the tune of £8 billion and, having done that, add to the level of unemployment, they will add to the level of public expenditure and cut will have to cut into the vicious circle. They will have again to increase taxation and cut public expenditure.
  We have heard about the argument that the Government have had about the way in which to present a 1 per cent. cut in the level of pensions next year. I do not believe that we have heard the last of that. If the Government continue to get deeper and deeper into the vicious circle, I fear that we shall have more and more cuts in benefits. That is the only way in which the Government will be able to break into the vicious circle. The Government have put themselves into an impossible position with their policy. If they persist with it, the social consequences—I hope that we shall recognise them—will be horrific. We shall see rising unemployment and cuts in benefit.
  We have, as Galbraith has said, the most stable society and the most decent people. However, if we are faced with the situation that I have described, it will be difficult to control it. Even if the Government make a major U-turn,
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  it will unfortunately be too late to prevent unemployment rising to 3 million. I fear that we shall not see that major U-turn.
  Even if we have a moderate U-turn, the bitterness that will have been created will lead inevitably to inflation taking off again. There can be little doubt about that. Nothing fundamental has been done to deal with the long-term problem of inflation. If anyone is to persist with the type of policy that the Government are now pursuing, it is necessary to have a degree of certainty that one is right and that at the end of the day everything will come out marvellously. I find that difficult to understand, and I find it even more difficult that Conservative Members can accept it.
  Mr. Robert Sheldon: They do not.
  Mr. Barnett: The Government have stated that their chosen method of reducing the rate of inflation is control of the money supply. The right hon. Member for Worthing and many other Conservative Members will no doubt accept that it is not the money supply that has reduced the rate of inflation. That has been done by deflation piled on deflation piled on more deflation during a world recession. It cannot be argued that cuts in public expenditure or increases in taxation are the real cause of the problem. It is true that the Government have not been spectacularly successful in cutting public expenditure or taxation. They have not done much about truth in taxation. It is now being handled through the back door by national insurance contributions. I shall leave that on one side.
  There may be a Conservative political case for cutting public expenditure and taxation, but there is no evidence that that approach will reduce the rate of inflation. There is no evidence that high levels of public expenditure and taxation cause inflation. There is no real evidence that a massive and rapid reduction in the rate of inflation will deal with the fundamental problems that we face.
  Britain had inflation in single-figures until about 1974. At that time our industrial production was higher than that of many of our industrial competitors. The period when we had single-figure inflation ended with Britain's doing much worse than most of its industrial competitors despite single-figure inflation. Real living standards were the same. Manufacturing investment was the same. Public expenditure as a percentage of GDP was certainly not the highest in the world. It was not the lowest, but it was certainly not the highest. The same applied to total taxation and personal taxation. Despite all that, we still did much less well than most of our competitors.
  I hope that we shall not subscribe to the myth—it seems to be the Government's central policy—that we have only to reduce the rate of inflation, regardless of the damage that is done in the process, and that, that having been achieved, everything will be all right. There is no evidence to make us believe that that is so.
  That is not to say that it should not be a major objective to reduce the rate of inflation. It is one of the problems with some of the alternative strategies that I hear from time to time, including some from my right hon. and hon. Friends. There are some who ignore the problems of inflation altogether. It seems that the Government's sole policy is quickly to reduce the rate of inflation. They are ignoring the consequences, namely, the damage that will be done to our short-term and long-term prospects. That is my worry about the Government's policies.

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  What gains are to be seen from a massive reduction in the rate of inflation? I accept that with low levels of inflation we remove distortions, improve international competitiveness and to some extent reduce the level of unemployment. I do not doubt that if the level of inflation, of pay settlements and of the price of products within a company were lower, the company would be able to retain some additional employment. That must be true. However, there is no evidence that reductions of inflation will of themselves produce reduced unemployment.
  Between 1950 and 1975 we had single-figure rates of inflation. Unemployment increased from 290,000 to 929,000. We often blame lack of economic growth entirely on high levels of inflation. Our growth of GDP in 1976 was 5 per cent. It was 3·8 per cent. in 1978. In 1979 it was 3·2 per cent. In all but four years of the period during which we had single-figure rates of inflation, there were low rates of economic growth. Even if we were able to get rates of inflation down to single figures, that would not of itself solve the problem, and certainly not if it were pursued in the manner that the Government have chosen.
  There is a chicken-and-egg argument in this area. It is at least as likely that our poor industrial performance is responsible for the high rates of inflation as it is that high rates of inflation have caused poor industrial performance. I subscribe to the view that it is our poor industrial performance over a long period that has led to high rates of inflation, plus the fact that as a nation we have been unwilling to accept lower living standards to match our poor performance. That has been one of the major problems that has faced previous Governments, both Conservative and Labour, as well as the present one. That is the root cause of inflation; it is not that inflation causes poor performance.
  The conclusion must be—it certainly is for me—that it is more important to improve our industrial performance, and particularly to increase the level of capital investment, than to get the rate of inflation down to single figures so rapidly as to destroy much of industry in the process. My fear is that we shall get the worst of all worlds. After four or five further wasted years, the economic solution will not just be further away. It will have been made much worse by the unfairness of the social policies that go side by side with existing policies. Those social policies rule out any prospect of getting agreement on keeping living standards in line with the growth in our resources.
  I know that it is difficult enough to reach agreement with the trade unions if one is trying to pursue policies that are moderately acceptable, but in current circumstances we are alienating to a degree that will make the solution to our problems almost impossible. The danger at present is that we shall promise or imply that alternative policies can deliver both improved living standards and increases in public expenditure without any kind of agreement on the distribution of resources, especially incomes. That is the real danger.
  Most of the available resources in the coming years, despite North Sea oil, will be needed to make good the cuts in capital expenditure that have gone on for years in both the public and private sectors. I take my own share of responsibility for that. I spent a fair amount of time cutting capital expenditure in the public sector. However, in the current situation the nationalised industries have been asked to make further cuts, amounting to £¾ billion, at a
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  time when their capital structure is under threat in a way that it never has been before. This is not the time to be cutting their capital expenditure.
  In those circumstances, for some years ahead we need a recognition that there will be very little room indeed for improving living standards if we are to find those desperately needed resources for capital investment in both the public and private sectors. What we do not need are promises to improve public services and increase living standards. That is why I hope that we in the Labour Party will concentrate on the only real hope that exists for the country — a Government reaching agreement with the trade union movement without promising that they can deliver what is not possible.
  The tragedy of this week's statement by the Chancellor is not only the short-term damage that it will cause—which is bad enough—but also the fact that if persisted with there will be many years' delay before we can start putting right the decades of industrial decline to which I have referred. In the national interest, I hope that some right hon. and hon. Members and others outside the House will try to stop policies that are doing such enormous damage to industry before they do even greater damage to the social fabric of our society.
  7.44 pm
  Mr. Tim Eggar: I listened with great respect to the remarks of the right hon. Member for Heywood and Royton (Mr. Barnett). I sometimes wish that all speeches were as frank and honest as the one that we have just heard.
  Along with my right hon. Friend the Member for Worthing (Mr. Higgins), I have felt for some time that the Government have not been following a pure monetarist policy. It has not been the pure monetarism that the Government themselves have led us to believe that they are carrying out or the pure monetarism that the popular press has portrayed it to be. If one wants proof, one has only to read the evidence of Professor Friedman when he appeared before the Select Committee or listen to the speeches of the right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell) or those of my right hon. Friend the Member for Worthing.
  The fact is that on Monday the Government were finally forced to admit that they had to take a view on interest rates, and to do it publicly, whereas previously they had done it in a private manner through the gilt repurchase scheme. During the preceding week the Government were rightly forced to develop a policy for Government sector pay. There is no getting away from that.
  I have felt for some time that the rate of MLR has been unnecessarily high and that it has had a knock-on effect on the exchange rate. The short-term demand for money has been far less responsive to the cost of borrowing as the recession has deepened. In other words, business men have been forced to borrow regardless of the cost. We had reached the stage at which high interest rates were leading directly to an increase in the money supply.
  I am happy to note that the Government are moving only slowly and gradually towards monetary base control, because I feel that that carries with it, just as night follows day, an increased volatility in short-term interest rates. The Government have not been prepared to accept that volatility during the past 18 months, and I can see no reason why they should be prepared to accept it in the future. Monetary base control will also bring with it

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  significant changes in the banking system and the building society structure. That is not something that we should wish on the country at a time of economic recession.
  Conservative Members generally accept that we must reduce public expenditure further. It is clear to us that the country simply cannot continue to subsidise council house rents for those who can afford to buy their homes or are well able to pay the true economic rate. We know that people in work are suffering a real drop in their standard of living. Therefore, it would be totally inequitable if pensioners and those on social security benefits were not also asked to make sacrifices. Along with my right hon. Friend the Member for Worthing, I welcome the Government's decision to set a cash limit for Government sector pay. I also welcome the Chancellor's declaration to the Select Committee that in future years he will not fudge the figures on pay cash limits.
  I therefore welcome these restrictions on current expenditure, but I urge caution. Unless we are careful, the Government will replace essentially fair taxes, such as income tax and VAT, with essentially unfair taxes, such as rates and increases in nationalised industry charges—for example, energy and rail—which become no more than an alternative form of indirect taxation.
  It is one thing to reduce current spending; it is quite another to continue to cut into capital investment. We have now reached the stage at which there is net disinvestment by the public sector, and that cannot be good for the country.
  I question very much the Government's concentration on the level of the PSBR next year. In other words, I wonder whether it is necessary to increase the revenue side of the account. I accept that, in the long run, the higher the real public sector borrowing requirement, the higher will interest rates have to be to finance it. For the second time in a decade, at a time of economic recession, we find that the response of British people to that recession has been a significant increase in the savings ratio. Since that has been coupled with a large inflow of funds into gilts from outside the country, I cannot see that running. a high level of PSBR will be totally incompatible with the control of the money supply. However, I urge caution. If the Government are to accept a higher level of PSBR—I hope that they will, in time—that higher level must go to financing higher capital investment, not current expenditure.
  If the sacrifices that we are all making are to prove to be worth while, we must be able to benefit from the economic upturn when it comes. I do not share the pessimism of my right hon. Friend the Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath), who commented that we would not get out of the recession, but I share deeply his concern about the problem of recycling OPEC surpluses. The commercial banks are no longer able to take on the task. It is only a question of time before we have a moratorium from a developing country, and at that stage the commercial banks will turn round and say, quite reasonably, that they are commercial undertakings and cannot continue to lend to medium-level developing countries because by doing so they would lose their shareholders' capital.
  I should like to make three points about areas in the domestic sector on which the Government should concentrate. I support the hon. Member for Colne Valley (Mr. Wainwright) in his comments on the composition of
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  the PSBR. There is no justification for capital investment in the nationalised industries to become a counting convention in the PSBR. It has obviously led—we have seen it for the past two years — to non-commercial decisions being forced on nationalised industries because the Government are focusing on the PSBR figures. I am not suggesting that we should fiddle the figures in the next year or two and take that investment out—that would be wrong, and it would be seen as such by the market and by the country — but as the upturn comes it would be reasonable for the Government to take those steps, perhaps in two or three years, and I hope that they will start floating the idea now so that it becomes accepted in, say, 1982 or 1983.
  We must grasp the nettle of what we will do about wage settlements once the upturn in the economy reappears. We cannot say that the present low level of wage settlements—which I welcome—is due to a belief in the money supply figures. If the labour force really believes in the money supply figures, we shall have wage settlements of 19 per cent. rather than 8 or 10 per cent. In the words of the hon. Member for Colne Valley, we must look at the re-entry problem. I believe that the proposals in "The Right Approach to the Economy" for an economic forum were at least a basis on which we could move forward. It was with regret that I found that when the Government came into office they were not going to take action on those proposals. I say to the Government that unless we are to lose all the benefits that we believe we have gained from the sacrifices of the past year, we must work now on developing the idea of an economic forum for the upturn when it comes.
  I turn next to a technical point, which I shall not develop in detail. We must examine the possibility of a thorough overhaul of the savings market. We on the Conservative Benches have rightly been concerned that private savings have been funnelled into funding the Government debt. We have ignored the fact that we have also distorted the economy by giving tax advantages to people to invest in the housing market through building societies. The building societies have tax advantages in the interest rates which they can offer through the composite rate structure. Also, the money that people take out from building societies for mortgages is tax deductible. The more those benefits increase, the higher interest rates become. As a result, people have preferred to invest in housing and property rather than in the stock market or in small businesses — a reasonable, rational economic reaction to market pricing.
  Almost regardless of what the Government do, we shall see a significant reduction in the PSBR in 1982–83, purely because of the dramatic build-up in oil revenues. That means that there will be a reduction in the supply of gilts available to institutions to invest. That inherent reduction, coupled with what I hope will be a continuing Government effort to fund directly from the private sector through index-linked national savings certificates, means that there will inevitably be a re-emergence of the sterling capital market for United Kingdom companies, and once again, for the first time in 10 years, companies will be able to fund themselves on a fixed rate. But we must be careful. If Government funding from the private sector increases, there will be a natural draw down on the private sector funds available and the Government will be competing directly with the banks and building societies for whatever private sector savings are available.

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  It has been proved over the past 15 years that, because of their tax advantages, the building societies inevitably draw more from private savings than do the banks. If the Government are also fishing in the same pool, we are liable to get into a situation where the whole deposit base of the banking system is put under pressure and where the banks are not liquid enough or sure enough of their reserves to be able to make fixed-term loans — which would be a significant advantage to British industry—rather than overdrafts. I ask the Government to start thinking now about the whole structure of the savings market so that we can take advantage of the economic upturn when it comes.
  Hon. Members will be aware that I have not been over-enthusiastic about the Government's economic strategy. However, that does not mean that I entirely reject monetary policy. Control of the money supply has a role in controlling the economy, but it is a necessary and not a sufficient tool of economic management. It is not much good setting off on a journey by car from London to Birmingham if the car can move only in a straight line, at a certain speed, and has only enough petrol to get to Birmingham. On the way to Birmingham the driver will need a steering wheel to get round corners and a brake and an accelerator if he meets any diversions.
  The economy is exactly the same in many ways as the road between here and Birmingham. We cannot simply use a car that is going straight in the one direction at a predetermined speed. We have to be able to change the direction of the car and vary the speed. We cannot have that variation if we are relying purely on monetary policy.
  8 pm
  Mr. Martin J. O'Neill: I should like to concentrate on the industrial aspects of the debate and to avoid the technicalities of the Treasury. Many of us who represent areas in which the industrial base of this country resides are very distressed at the effect of the Government's policies on manufacturing industry.
  The hon. Member for Enfield, North (Mr. Eggar) introduced a motoring metaphor. He talked about embarking on great journeys up to Birmingham. I should like him to travel a little further north and see the damage that is being done by the Government's policies.
  When I first spoke in this House, at the time of the last Gracious Speech, it was on the day when the Secretary of State for Industry made his famous speech about the six evils that, according to him, had beset British manufacturing industry over the last 25 years. It is salutary to look at what has happened in the last 18 months.
  I have no desire to make a constituency speech, but my constituents work in firms such as BP, ICI, Coates Paton, DCL and the Hepworth ceramic group. Within that list of companies, we have what may fairly be regarded as a wide spread of profitable British industry. Yet these firms have contributed about 1,500 of the 3,000 redundancies that have occurred in my constituency and its environs in the last 18 months.
  At the door of none of these firms can be laid the criticism of failing to invest, that the work force is not co-operative or that the firms have not gone out into the world to sell their goods and to provide products with which no other firms in their fields can compete in terms of quality. But, unfortunately, as a result of the Government's policy, they have had to cut back on production. They have had
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  to lay off people. In many instances, they have been unable to bring into production the fruits of massive investment programmes which have been arrived at only after a great deal of negotiation with the trade union movement, difficulties with bankers and so on.
  I mentioned Hepworth Ceramics. It has a subsidiary called G. R. Stein, which produces refractory bricks for the steel industry. It would be wrong to say that it would suffer solely because of the problems of British Steel, for probably only about 30 per cent. of its production is in that section of the steel industry. Another 35 per cent. goes to the private sector and the rest is sent abroad.
  If we ignore the difficulties that British Steel got into — and if we choose to forget that it was the Government's unwillingness to provide the money at the right time that forced British Steel into the painful industrial dispute that has caused so many of our difficulties—we still have to take account of the fact that that firm has had to accommodate gas price increases of about 30 per cent. in the last nine months. It has also had to face the difficulty arising from the value of the pound. It has had to compete with German and Austrian firms that are widely recognised in the industry as producing an inferior article. The firm has been put into an unfair position in relation to those foreign firms because of the burdens that the Government's policy has placed on it, especially in regard to energy prices and the foolish determination to maintain the pound at an unrealistic level.
  In the last three or four years, the firm has invested about £17 million in the plant in my constituency. Much of that investment was to be met out of income, which was to be generated from profits in this year and the next—profits that will not now be forthcoming. Vast areas of the firm's massive plant are now lying idle simply because the firm has neither the market nor the resources to complete the project.
  It is a source of concern to me that such a firm, with a massive sales force effectively positioned throughout the world, is unable to sell the goods that the people of Australia and the Far East are desperate to buy but are unable to buy because the price is not right for them.
  These are not the kinds of firm against which can be levelled the sorts of criticisms or prescriptions set out by the Secretary of State for Industry 18 months ago. They are not the kinds of firm that have suffered unduly from high direct taxation. In the main, they have been fairly sophisticated in their accounting procedures and have not had to pay particularly high rates of tax. They have been able to avoid paying tax, to put it politely, because of the regime operating in this country.
  They can also be acquitted of any charge of egalitarianism, because they have not gone out of their way to have workers on the board. They have consulted the workers through their organisations and undertaken programmes of training of shop stewards and so on but could never be regarded as indulgent co-operative organisations.
  The firms that I have mentioned have not been threatened with nationalisation, although one might on another occasion be prepared to argue a case for that. If they have had any trouble from nationalisation, it has been from the State utilities, which have been forced to increase their energy prices. They have had problems in moving their goods in and out because of the increase in rail freight charges. But nationalisation in the form of the threat of State ownership has never been a problem for these firms.

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  The work force in my area could never be accused of taking a Luddite attitude—one of the most vicious of the evils to which the Secretary of State for Industry referred. Indeed, I find it difficult to discover evidence of Luddite trade unionism in the United Kingdom. I believe it to be one of the figments of the right hon. Gentleman's imagination. If it does exist, it is not in the parts of the industrial North in which I meet people. I find a tremendous spirit of co-operation, albeit brought about by adversity.
  There is no evidence of the anti-enterprise culture that we are led to believe exists in certain parts of the country. In the central area of Scotland there are groups of workers employed by ICI, by BP and by the Weirs group, a major Scottish engineering firm. Most of the firms in the area are good examples of modern British manufacturing industry. They are very successful and cannot in any way be charged with being anti-enterprise. The people in my area may sometimes have difficulty in arriving at agreements with the firms over wages and conditions, but, generally speaking, the record of the central belt of Scotland in recent years has been a good one. The hon. Member for Renfrewshire, East (Mr. Stewart), who has long experience in the CBI, will bear out that the record of central Scottish manufacturing industry in the last 25 years has been one of innovation and, generally speaking, very good industrial relations. The firms concerned are, in the main, dependent on the expansion of Britain's role in world trade.
  Last night, when the Secretary of State for Trade was replying to the debate I asked him about the prospects for Britain in terms of our share of world trade. He said that our share would continue at its present level. But a Treasury document of 24 November 1980, dealing with economic prospects to the end of 1981, stated that
  "the loss of United Kingdom share this year, measured in volume terms, may be attributed mainly to a lagged response to worsening competitiveness."
  It continues:
  "The growth of UK export markets (world trade in manufactures, UK weighted) is expected to slow down substantially, from an estimated 8 per cent. in 1980 to possibly 3 per cent. or so in 1981."
  Firms that have served Britain well during the past 10 or 20 years and have done everything required by the Secretary of State are faced by contracting markets and by increasing difficulties. In addition, if Britain somehow gets out of its economic difficulties, the bitterness and resentment felt in the industrial regions will remain in any re-entry to free collective bargaining.
  In addition, trade unions will be unwilling to accept new work practices. The difficulties that we have experienced since the last economic slump of the 1930s and the deep-seated attitudes held by some trade unions in relation to the innovation of new equipment will have become manifest. In my area, those attitudes do not exist, but we are told that they exist in some parts of the country. Such attitudes will be found once more, as a result of the bitterness, and the seeds of sourness that have been sown.
  Some people may not be able frequently to visit the industrial parts of Britain. If people wish to experience a taste of that bitterness, they need go no further than their local fire station. Last week I met the fire officers and men of a brigade. I heard how they felt about the way in which
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  the Government have reneged on the undertaking that they gave when in Opposition. If people want to discover how public service workers feel about the way in which they are being treated, they should talk to those workers. They resent being regarded as a crowd of overpaid skivers who do not work hard enough and whose numbers should be cut by two or three in each department. If that is the Government's recipe after 18 months, Opposition Members will be forced to shake their heads in disbelief. We did not expect very much from the Government. We did not expect their original policies to succeed, but we hoped for improvement.
  Recently, I read what Hugh Gaitskell said when he destroyed Rab Butler's prospects of assuming the leadership of the Conservative Party. Perhaps it is true also of the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Hugh Gaitskell said:
  "He began in folly, continued in deceit, and he ended in reaction."
  That is what we expect from the Cabinet. This week we may not have seen examples of deceit but we have seen examples of incompetence. Some Labour Members may be as critical of their party as some of those on the Government Benches. In a short time the Government's incompetence has been shown up. People have seen how their employment policies have failed. The bitterness pervading the country has been seen. When the Government make their next U-turn, they must try to resolve their dreadful legacy.
  8.13 pm
  Mr. Julian Amery: In his earlier remarks the hon. Member for Clackmannan and East Stirlingshire (Mr. O'Neill) underlined the irony of the past 18 months. The Conservative Government have increased public expenditure in real terms and penalised the private sector. One is bound to ask how that has happened. Why did not the clever people in our "think tank" when we were in Opposition gauge how the policies should be applied? Perhaps they thought that local government and the nationalised industries would react in the same way as the private sector. Perhaps they thought that faced with cash limits and cuts in the rate support grant they would resist wage increases and cut down manning levels.
  The Almighty in His infinite wisdom did not see fit to make local government officials and nationalised industry chairmen in the image of my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Industry. [AN HON. MEMBER: "Thank God for that."] We may regret that, but it remains a fact.
  The right hon. Member for Heywood and Royton (Mr. Barnett) made, I thought, the outstanding speech of the debate. He accepted that inflation should be regarded as the main enemy. But I agree with him when he said that inflation was not a thing in itself but that it reflected a basic weakness in the economy's structure. It reflects, of course, an imbalance between supply and demand. One can think of it as too much money chasing too few goods or as paying oneself more than one has earned, or whatever one likes. How does one restore that balance?
  One can restore the balance by damping down demand or by stimulating growth. The most difficult operation is to combine the two and to damp down demand at the same time as stimulating growth. It can be done, as I will try to show.
  My right hon. Friends are committed to a deflationary policy. It has not been very successful in the public sector.

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  To a certain extent, it has worked in the private sector, but I suspect that the world recession has had more effect on the private sector than interest rates or the high rate of sterling.
  The Government should stick to their policy of trying to damp down demand. I am not one to suggest an alternative, but I want to suggest an addition. My right hon. Friends should give a little more consideration to the other side of the equation. They should not only consider how to damp down demand; they should also consider how to increase the supply of goods in order to mop up excessive demand.
  How does one reconcile a deflationary policy with stimulating growth? In many periods of history it would have been impossible. It can be done only when technical advances create new possibilities, when new technology can lead to increased productivity. We now live in such a period. We are well into a new industrial revolution. In the past, certain sections of society could live in relevant affluence by exploiting others. Today, everybody could live in reasonable affluence if only we exploited the machine, and exploited it ruthlessly.
  Only a quarter of our population produces the wealth on which the rest of us live. There is no reason why a quarter of our people cannot work shorter hours and earn much higher wages. The increased demand generated by the increased wages earned by those who remain at work would quickly produce new employment for those made redundant during the process of modernisation. Japan can be cited as an extreme example. We cannot compare it with our society. However, that has been going on in Japan for half a generation. There has been modernisation after modernisation. People have been made redundant and re-employed within such a short period that the firms concerned have usually kept them on the payroll even though they were unemployed.
  Naturally, this calls for massive investment. At present that is difficult, though there may be something in the suggestions made in articles written by Lord Lever and Mr. Edwards. They wrote about banks channelling more money into investment and less into consumption. However, the heart of the problem is psychological.
  The hon. Member for Clackmannan and East Stirlingshire may not have come across the Luddite element in our society, but it is strong in the community. Obviously, Fleet Street and the Isle of Grain are caricature examples of Luddite behaviour. Nevertheless, newspapers give examples almost every day. One can find examples of people who prefer to let themselves be exploited and to receive low wages for long hours of work although they could, if they worked with management, exploit the machine, gain higher wages and work shorter hours. How can we reach the stage when such psychology disappears?
  In the old days, the view was that a tough deflationary policy would do the trick. The threat of unemployment would make people work harder and would produce more discipline in the work force. The threat of bankruptcy would put management on its toes and it would become more enterprising and inventive. There may still be something in that view. There are indications in some parts of the country that this aspect of the Government's policy is already having some effect. But I doubt whether it is enough today.
  I was for 21 years candidate and Member for Preston, North, which is as good a cross-section of British industry as one can get. In those years I became convinced that a
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  more positive approach was required. For almost 32 years now I have been preaching, I admit with very little effect, the importance of management and the work force requiring and being offered the carrot as well as the stick. That is easy enough in small firms where participation comes naturally. The few employees concerned know what goes on; they can see the books and there is no real problem. It is only in the larger firms that the problems arise and in nationwide bargaining.
  I should like the Government to begin to take more positive steps to encourage participation. I do not like the word "participation". What does it mean? There is no blueprint for it. We cannot have the same scheme for an engineering works and a bank. However, participation could involve profit sharing and the easy acquisition on advantageous terms of shares in companies, in which the people concerned are working. It could involve works councils for the larger firms, such as they have in West Germany, which in my experience and from what I have been told have been the most positive aspect of the German Mitbestimmungstecht concept. It could also involve worker directors in the large companies not on the lines recommended in the Bullock report—being appointed by trade unions—but emerging from the shop floor. I should not like to see this concept made compulsory. That is not the British way.
  I should like to see a registrar for participation appointed. If he approved of a particular scheme, the company concerned would be able to achieve some fiscal alleviation. To some extent, this is happening already. Many companies could receive a good deal more if we went that far. But I would go further. We need to mobilise public opinion in favour of productivity. That will be achieved only by public debate.
  We sometimes leave this Chamber feeling very frustrated about whether we are doing any good, but the importance of our debates is that opinions are aired and anything scandalous is shown up. People cannot get away with making scandalous decisions in a democracy such as ours in the way that they can behind closed doors. Industrial relations today are discussed mainly behind closed doors. What appears in the press is usually incomprehensible to the ordinary reader; it is not understood.
  I should like to see the little NEDCs and the NEDC itself gradually evolve as a consultative economic council debating the big economic issues of the day in public, and widely broadcast. We might be surprised by the results of such a fresh air cure. I do not believe that scandals such as those which go on in Fleet Street printing and on the Isle of Grain would continue if we had that kind of debate. Those involved would be laughed at and ridiculed by the public at large. That does not happen today because these matters are not sufficiently understood. I have been told when I have raised this matter that the trade unions would be unlikely to co-operate. I am not so sure. I doubt whether they would like to risk further unpopularity by insisting on secrecy.
  In my judgment, the Government are right to proceed on their present course. Their policies will bring down inflation, but there is no assurance that they will lead to recovery. We could end up with stable prices but lower standards than we have today. That would not be a very happy solution. It may seem a little Utopian to talk of profit sharing when there are no profits, of modernisation when there is little capital available for investment, or of

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  higher wages for the few when unemployment is on the increase. But if my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister is right in thinking that we may be near the turn of the tide towards the end of the year, or even if it is a little further delayed, it is none too soon to begin developing and preaching a positive policy as to how we propose to achieve growth through increased productivity.
  8.25 pm
  Mr. D. E. Thomas: Since 1973, 50,000 jobs have been lost in industry in Wales. I shall concentrate my remarks on the Welsh economy. That decline was offset by an increase in service employment, in particular in the public sector.
  The Gracious Speech states:
  "Plans for public expenditure will take account of the need to restrict the claims of the public sector on the nation's resources."
  I should make clear that for the nation of Wales, particularly the region of South Wales, the public sector is the economy. Well over 40 per cent. of those still employed are public employees.
  The crisis now affecting the South Wales economy is an example of the way in which the Government's policies of bashing the public sector are attacking the living standards and livelihood of the people of Wales. I was glad that the right hon. Member for Cardiff, South-East (Mr. Callaghan) took the opportunity today, in making his first major speech from the Back Benches, to highlight this issue. The depth of the crisis affecting South Wales arises from the interdependence of the steel and coal industries, with 40 per cent. of the South Wales coal output, in the form of coking coal, going to the steel industry.
  We hear about open government. There is no consultation on, or open government in, the decisions now hanging over our heads. They are being taken in secret within the British Steel Corporation and, presumably, will be presented to the Government and the House in the middle of next month. Those decisions could result in the loss of a further 15,000 jobs in the steel industry in Wales, resulting in a further loss of 15,000 jobs in the coal industry, plus an additional effect on other industries. Therefore, we could be talking of a loss of 50,000 jobs, not during the period 1973 to 1980, but in two years, as the Wales TUC has indicated.
  It is against that background that the Select Committee on Welsh affairs — I am not a member of that Committee, and, therefore, I can quote from its report objectively—said:
  "notwithstanding the actions taken by Government, there exists in Wales not a jobs gap but a jobs chasm into which the economic and social structures of large parts of Wales are in danger of falling."
  We have heard of social disorder. The right hon. Member for Rhondda (Mr. Jones) has written to the Prime Minister in these terms. We already have social disorder in Wales. It has been created by the Government. We have socio-economic disorder created by the destruction of the public sector and the reliance on market forces. Any further action that is taken in Wales by organised labour as a response to that disorder must be seen as the Government's responsibility.
  Mr. Raymond Whitney: Is that a threat?
  Mr. Thomas: Of course that is a threat. It is a realistic threat of the kind of response that we can expect from the
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  people of Wales in 1980, as we saw in 1926. I cannot put it any plainer than that. It is not just from Wales. Responses to regional crises throughout Europe are clear and stark. The Government have only to look at the experience of the French Government in the steel industry in the regions of Lorraine and Nord in 1978 and 1979 to see what can happen when a Government decide on a blind economic strategy of destroying jobs in regions that are able to respond, if necessary, in a dramatic way, which will include confrontation and industrial action.
  What we see in the crisis that is affecting Wales is a crisis of the whole welfare capitalist settlement post-1945. The fact that the Government are destroying the Welsh economy, particularly the economy of industrial South Wales, has to be paralleled with the destruction that they are undertaking of our education service, our personal social service, our jobs in the whole of our public sector and our services. The result of this, as we have heard from other speakers in the debate, is to exacerbate the deflation, because for every job destroyed in the public services, a further job is destroyed in the private sector.
  We have had stark experience in industrial South Wales of the results of central State policy. We had that experience when there was a decision to convert Britain to a multi-fuel economy. The result of that on the coalfields of South Wales was calamitous. We saw in the 1960s under a Labour Government the closure of over 80 pits.
  The dependence of industrial South Wales on the steel industry is something that has been encouraged by the way in which Government planning is sectoral rather than regional. Major sectoral decisions were taken to concentrate primary forms of steel production in South Wales in the late 1950s, when Llanwern was built, and so on. But there was no ancillary development of related metal industries so that one could see a balanced regional job provision growing out of that.
  What we now see in the current crisis is the over-dependence of Wales on the steel industry rather than the over-dependence that was highlighted in the early 1960s in the economic plan then produced. That dependence is, as it were, a third generation of dependence on primary production, and the contraction following it is the third generation crisis for the working class in Wales.
  After two decades of the rhetoric of reconstruction of the Welsh economy from successive Governments, we are now seeing systematic economic destruction. I can predict the kind of response that we shall have from the Government when they reply to the Select Committee. They will say that the recovery of Wales depends upon the recovery of the United Kingdom economy as a whole. That will be their cyclical argument, as cyclical, indeed, as the effect of their monetary policy in terms of creating deflation, because one cannot recover an economy without recovery within the depressed regions of that economy.
  That recovery must be led through planned investment and public enterprise. The pattern of State intervention, whether it is Keynesian intervention, the corporatist intervention or the monetarist one by the present Government, must be changed. The over-dependennce of regions such as South Wales on particular sectoral policies must be removed, and there must be regional planning that allows the region to develop its own economic balance in terms of its own development.
  We need immediate alleviation of the problem. We can demand that from the Government, though we shall

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  probably not get it from them. We can demand the sort of public sector subsidy policies that exist for energy industries in Continental Europe. We can also demand, as part of the future alternative economic strategy for which we must fight, planned production on a regional basis, to ensure that the sort of sectoral dependence that I have criticised is not perpetuated.
  More than anything, there must be effective planning and control of investment. The Welsh Development Agency is increasingly behaving as a poor public sector merchant bank. Indeed, it is trying to develop as a private sector merchant bank, as we have seen from its recent attempts to attract private capital. The WDA should be involved in planning agreements, with domestic and multinational capital, to ensure that when major job losses take place in a dependent region such as South Wales they can be replaced.
  Those are the transitional demands of an alternative economic strategy. We cannot expect them that from this Government, but we shall demand themvery,. If the Government do not respond, I must tell them there are political groupings that have been formed within Wales that are determined to protect the interests of the Welsh working class. If a Government who have no mandate from Wales regard themselves as having a mandate to destroy Wales, Wales will destroy them.
  8.36 pm
  Mr. Charles Morrison: The hon. Member for Merioneth (Mr. Thomas) said that the economy cannot recover unless there is a recovery in the regions. The ultimate test of any economic policy in a small, over-populated country such as Britain is whether there is recovery in the regions, but the final objective of the Government is to ensure that there is not only economic recovery but economic prosperity in all parts of the country.
  It is stating the obvious to say that the Government's continuing intention to control inflation remains not only a desirable but a necessary objective. If it is not achieved, the consequences will ultimately be still higher unemployment, reduced competitiveness and a shattering deterioration in standards of living.
  However, none of us should run away with the belief that the control of inflation is the only priority and the only necessity. The right hon. Member for Heywood and Royton (Mr. Barnett) made that point in his excellent speech. It is just as necessary at a time of recession for the Government to do what they can not only to contain unemployment but to provide special assistance for the unemployed. In that respect I warmly welcome the measures recently announced by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Employment. It is also necessary for the Government to do their utmost to maintain a strong industrial base in preparation for a better future.
  It is to the gross disadvantage of the Government that they have to try to achieve such necessary objectives against a background of world depression, and there is a degree of incompatibility in some of the methods that must be adopted to achieve the objectives. That emphasises all the more the importance of the Government's exercising a degree of flexibility and some moderation and balance in their policies.
  I share the view of my right hon. Friend the Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath) that there will be no proper end to the recession until the problem of the OPEC surpluses is
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  dealt with. Far too much optimism is being expressed about the recession bottoming out soon. There may be a temporary improvement, but until the problem of OPEC surpluses is dealt with we cannot look forward to anything approaching a rosy future.
  I wish to refer briefly to some of the problems of industry, based particularly on knowledge that I have gleaned in my constituency in recent weeks. Some hon. Members will know that my constituency is not an archetypal industrial constituency. Nevertheless, industry provides an infinitely greater number of jobs in it than does agriculture. If the situation generally is as serious as it is in my constituency, it is easy for me to understand the seriousness of the position that must exist in some other constituencies, not least those in Wales, to which reference has been made.
  Some businesses are flourishing. I suspect that some were flourishing in 1930. The greater part of industry, however, feels maltreated, uncertain and, in a number of cases, in danger of going bankrupt, often in spite of being highly efficient and cost-effective and making products that should, and will, remain basic requirements for many years to come in this country. What industry finds difficult to understand is that, while most of it has done what has been asked of it in the last 18 months—it has cut costs, has slimmed down, is leaner and keener, has become more competitive and has adopted a much more aggressive marketing policy in a difficult marketing situation—it is being heavily clobbered in relation to many items over which industry has no control but the Government have. I want to refer to one or two.
  There is the strength of sterling. I should like to mention one company in my constituency which has written to me. I visited it recently. It is a company concerned mainly with electronics and, therefore, as it says itself, it can hardly be described as a lame duck. The plain truth is that many of its customers are being completely overwhelmed by low-cost imports and, in consequence, are either going out of business or cutting back severely. The opportunity for direct exports by this company is rapidly diminishing even at prices which allow no profit margins. In certain cases, the company is already selling at prices below factory cost in order to maintain some sort of foothold in markets that have been established over many years. No company can go on doing that for very long.
  I am told that until recently the company had been successful suppliers of components to Japanese electronics companies operating in Europe. It is now becoming totally impossible to compete with the Japanese principals in those markets. Similarly, American companies operating in Europe are finding that components which until recently came from the United Kingdom can now be purchased much more cheaply in the United States. I am sure that it is excellent to have a strong currency. It seems utterly crazy, however, to expect industry to compete with a currency that has increased in value by almost 50 per cent. in three years for the artificial reason that we have North Sea oil.
  Until now, the Government have said that they can do nothing about the strength of sterling. How long will they sustain that argument? Will they continue with it as each oil price increase forces up the value of sterling, perhaps to a parity of $2.60, $2.70, $2.80 or $3? Will they take no action, whatever the strength of sterling, while the competitiveness and strength of British industry are

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  steadily destroyed abroad and at home, with cheap manufactured foreign goods being sucked in? The answer is "Of course not." The Government would take action if sterling went much higher. If I am right in my assumption, as I believe I must be — I cannot believe that the Government wish to see industry destroyed in that way—why do they not take action now, given the pressure under which industry is operating?
  I turn to the question of interest rates. Of course, the reduction in MLR is to be welcomed. It will have a most beneficial effect on industrial costs. I only hope that it will be possible to reduce it still further. In the meantime, the benefit of the cut will be lessened by the increase in national insurance contributions, by the new responsibility to be imposed on companies for training board costs, perhaps by sickness benefit costs, and by energy costs and local authority rates. All these are matters of great concern to many companies throughout the country.
  I am glad that my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Energy has recently shown some much-needed flexibility over energy prices, but it may be necessary for him to do much more.
  With regard to local authority rates, it is no use the Government's continuing to think that local government can cut endlessly without impairing services. I raised this matter with my right hon. and learned Friend the Chancellor on Monday after his statement. Since the present Government came to office, far from reducing the responsibilities of local government they have in many respects increased them. They have also taken action that is likely to create the need for still more employees in local government. When the Government say that they have removed controls from local government, what they mean is that they have put themselves in a position in which they can reduce the number of policemen in the Department of the Environment who previously oversaw what local authorities were trying to do.
  There are only two alternatives for local government, given a cut in the rate support grant. The Government must either reduce or remove obligations currently imposed on local authorities or accept higher rates. But rate increases as high as, or in excess of, the rate of inflation are at present wholly unacceptable to industry, given its parlous state. Therefore, I must ask the Government again to give further consideration to the statutory duties that have been imposed on local government.
  I have tried briefly to highlight some of the matters that are worrying industry. What concerns me overall is that the Government should do their utmost to avoid an industrial battle of the Somme. They must, of necessity. On the very first day of that battle, on 1 July 1916, there were more casualties than in the whole of the Crimean, Boer and Korean wars put together. The strategy of that battle may have been right, the planning may have been perfect, but the tactics and the lack of imagination of inflexible generals led to untold carnage for virtually no gain. I do not wish to see that carnage equalled by an industrial carnage in this country for the same reasons, in spite of a well-intentioned strategy.
  I ask the Government, in the coming difficult months, to show just a little more flexibility, just a little more moderation, just a little more balance, just a little less theory and perhaps just a little more practical common sense.
  8.50 pm
  Dr. Oonagh McDonald: I fear that, despite what the hon. Member for Devizes (Mr. Morrison) said, a little more flexibility, somewhat better tactics and a little more sensitivity will not be enough to save the Government from creating the kind of industrial carnage which they seem utterly bent on. For it is not just the tactics, and so on, that are wrong. The Government's entire strategy is ill conceived, and it is by no means bringing any of the benefits that the Government predicted confidently in the first few days after they took office.
  There were two main planks in the Government's economic policy affecting industry, and it is on those that I wish to concentrate. The first was that of tax cuts. The Government said that these alone would create the incentive needed to modernise British industry and make it more efficient. The second was a cut in public spending to free industry from the burden of public spending that it bore. The tax cuts plainly have brought no such benefits. Manufacturing production has fallen by 11 per cent. this year. Business confidence is at its lowest ebb. Industry after industry seems to be disappearing rapidly.
  As for the cuts in public spending, it appears that the Secretary of State for Industry is convinced that this is the only aspect of the Government's stategy that will work. In a recent interview with British Business, he said:
  "We have still to create the conditions that are encouraging to industry".
  That is the understatement of the year. He went on:
  "and those conditions won't be brought about until we have ceased to crowd industry out by our excessive government spending."
  With that sort of conviction, the Government have already cut public spending by a little more than £7 billion at 1980 survey prices, and I include this week's announcements. None of those cuts need have been made if the Government had not, at the beginning of their period in office, cut the standard rate of income tax by 3p in the pound. By the end of the next financial year, that cut will have cost between £6·2 billion and £6·4 billion in terms of lost revenue. That cut in the standard rate of income tax has had no good influence on the economy. Instead, it has been paid for by cuts in public spending, which have had not only disastrous social consequences but disastrous consequences for industry as a whole.
  Yet this aspect of Government policy is the only one that seems to meet with the approval of the CBI. I fail to understand why the CBI and industrialists do not understand their own interests better than that. It may be that they suffer from temporary amnesia whenever they consider public spending. Last year, Government support for industry in terms of grants and subsidies and also in terms of contracts and public purchasing amounted to more than £23 billion. That, surely, was an important cushion for industry and an important incentive for it to maintain production at a high level.
  We can see the devastating effects of thes cuts in public spending if we consider just one industry, for example, construction. By March 1980, the Government had lopped nearly £2 billion off spending designed to set up contracts, and soon, to the construction industry alone. The result is that roughly 250,000 construction workers are unemployed, and the private construction industry is suffering. Meanwhile, the country's housing stock will deteriorate

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  rapidly. By the middle 1980s it will cost about £14 billion at current prices to put it right, and we shall be suffering a serious housing shortage by then.
  Industrialists and the Government fail to realise the importance of this sort of public spending to private industry. Far from taking money from private industry, such spending contributes directly to its continuance in business, to maintaining its production at a high level and to its profits. Of every £100 spent on council house building £85 goes to the private sector. Only 15 per cent. of council house building is by direct labour. Money spent on housing would therefore bring enormous social benefits by ending the ceaseless suffering of those on the waiting lists and those who live in damp and decaying properties, and would directly benefit the construction industry.
  Firms other than building companies would benefit. Many firms in my constituency have already disappeared. One company making concrete building blocks closed down because existing heavy stocks had rendered it unnecessary for more to be manufactured. On Friday I shall visit a timber firm that employs my constituents on making doors, windows and roofing. It is a medium-sized, efficient firm with good industrial relations, but it is suffering from the effects of cuts in public spending and the recession in demand for private housing created by high interest rates.
  If, instead of cutting public spending, the Secretary of State for Industry took stronger and more decisive steps to increase it, he would help to revive private industry. He has done a little here and there so far this year, but firms in my constituency would not now be collapsing if the level of public spending planned by the last Labour Government were being implemented today.
  Unemployment in Thurrock has reached the unprecedented level of over 10 per cent. My constituency is in the allegedly prosperous South-East. It is not suffering as much as other parts of the country, but suffering it is, and directly because of Government policy. The Government should be indulging not in undirected tax cuts, which have done nothing to help private industry, but in a sustained programme of public spending and public investment—which would lead to private investment—and in strong interventionist policies.
  Recently the chairman of the much-reduced NEB told the Institute of Fiscal Studies that the Government should support industry, especially high technology industry, by greater public investment and should look to the strong interventionist policies of countries such as America, West Germany and Japan. He chose Japan as his model and suggested that, like Japan, the Government should intervene and, from the different sections of industry, pick the winners, supporting them with a view to creating high technology, highly competitive concerns.
  A policy of planned public spending would do much to rescue constituencies such as mine and those of my hon. Friends which are suffering from high unemployment and all the social evils that it brings in its train.
  9 pm
  Mr. John Silkin: Hon. Members who were in the House earlier this afternoon must have felt that they were present at a historic occasion. It was somewhat unusual for two former Prime Ministers to speak consecutively. In the speeches by my right hon. Friend the Member for Cardiff, South-East (Mr. Callaghan) and the right hon. Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath) we witnessed
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  something the House has not seen that for a long time. They were speeches of enormous authority and great brilliance which revealed an extraordinary diffidence and modesty in two people who ran the country for many years.
  The long series of debates on the Gracious Speech has been significant, because only rarely has the Gracious Speech been mentioned. We have discussed the economy, which deserves only a line or two in the Gracious Speech, unemployment and whether the Chancellor of the Exchequer was or was not misleading the House. It is extraordinary that during the worst economic crisis for years the House apparently is to spend almost the whole of the next Session legalising the production of Mickey Mouse telephones. That is the priority in this year's Gracious Speech.
  If one wishes to test what the Government are thinking and doing, one should study the expressions on the faces of right hon. Gentlemen on the Treasury Bench. They reveal a great degree of unease and uncertainty. That was not so during the debate on the Gracious Speech last year. Then, the expressions were a little patronising, somewhat contemptuous, full of self-confidence and a little smug. Government Members were filled with a divine certainty that everything would be right. That was 18 months ago. It was in the halcyon period when, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Chesterfield (Mr. Varley) reminded the House yesterday, the Prime Minister entered No. 10 Downing Street, turned on the steps and quoted St. Francis. She said:
  "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony.
  Where there is error, may we bring truth.
  Where there is doubt, may we bring faith.
  Where there is despair, may we bring hope."
  The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Leader of the House of Commons and Minister for the Arts (Mr. Norman St. John-Stevas): That is absolutely right.
  Mr. Silkin: The right hon. Gentleman may say that. I believe that the words are felicitous. The philosophy is immaculate. However, the rejection of the philosophy by the Prime Minister was her first U-turn.
  Let us examine item by item, prescription by prescription. The Prime Minister said:
  "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony."
  Harmony where? If one is to have harmony in a nation, one must go to the top of the governing party. One would expect, therefore, to see harmony in the Cabinet. Where else? However, that does not exist. Many months ago, one Minister might have said that he was sorry. But that was not said by all Ministers all the time. Now, they are saying that they are sorry for what other people are doing. In the eyes of people outside, the Cabinet is governed by leaks and disagreements. Whether they are wet or dry leaks does not matter. Harmony has turned to discord in the Cabinet. That is extremely interesting and enjoyable for the Opposition and the press, especially the Tory press, which, generally speaking, has to be kept on a tight rein. However, such discord becomes infectious. There is not much harmony in the Tory press these days. This morning the Daily Express attacked the Daily Mail and The Sun as fair weather friends of the Prime Minister. There is not much harmony in the press.
  What about harmony in industry? We are told that something new is happening. The Secretary of State said it yesterday, the Prime Minister said it today; right hon.

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  Ladies and Gentlemen are always saying it. They say that there is a new realism in industry as a result of the Government's policies — whether intended policies or involuntary replies to the world situation. They say that there is a new realism on the shop floor. The right hon. Lady told us today that we are witnessing improved industrial relations. Treasury Ministers and Tory Back Benchers give as an example the cutting of the number of days lost by strikes. It would be a little surprising if the number of days lost by strikes was not being cut. After all, there are almost 1 million fewer people at work than there were a year ago. Furthermore, when we have taken those out of consideration, as The Times pointed out this morning, more than 5 million hours have been lost in short-time working and another 5 million in lost overtime.
  There are also fewer disputes. If the Secretary of State for Industry continues to fold his arms and watch the whole of industry disappear, there will be fewer and fewer disputes. There will be no one to cause them. However, there has not been very much harmony right from the beginning. There is not very much harmony created by a tight, rigid cash limit, which the right hon. Gentleman has had to go back on, in the steel industry, for example, which forced the first national strike in that industry for over 50 years.
  That deals with the first of St. Francis's prescriptions that the right hon. Lady quoted on 4 May 1979. The second was:
  "Where there is error, may we bring truth."
  I do not very often, particularly these days, quarrel with my right hon. Friend the Member for Leeds, East (Mr. Healey), but I shall on this occasion. The Chancellor of the Exchequer did not say that he was "hemmed in" by Tory election promises. According to The Daily Telegraph, he said that he was "boxed in". My right hon. Friend rightly gave an example of some of the election promises that were made. The right hon. and learned Gentleman, the Prime Minister and other Treasury Ministers do not seem to feel that they need to be boxed or hemmed in by them.
  My right hon. Friend quoted the promise not to increase prescription charges, which, incidentally, was made by the right hon. Lady herself, although she left someone else to do the dirty work. There was a promise that there would be no doubling of VAT—it was a wicked Labour lie to suggest that there would be — but that promise was broken. No one felt boxed in about breaking that promise. Another Labour lie, for which I, regrettably, was responsible, was that if the Conservatives were elected they would reduce the green pound to parity in one year. It was said that that was not so. The promise was that it would take a whole Parliament to do that, and even then it would not be done if it would cause a rapid increase in food prices. However, it was done in one year. The Conservative Party made all those promises. It will take a long time before the truth is brought.
  What about the promise to abolish rates? That was an interesting promise for the local authorities. We ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer to redeem that one as soon as possible. It was as election promise. The Conservative Party further promised not to sell out on fisheries. The sellout has not been delivered entirely, but it is well on the way. It will not be long before it is delivered.
  When the Prime Minister quoted St. Francis, she said:
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  "Where there is error, may we bring truth."
  I do not think that that prescription has altogether served its purpose. Let us try the third prescription, namely:
  "Where there is doubt, may we bring faith."
  When the Conservative Government were elected on 3 May 1979 there was considerable faith. There was no doubt about that. There was total faith in monetarism. It was not quite clear what it meant to members of the Government, but it clearly meant something. I find myself confused. I do not know whether it is Hayeck monetarism or Milton Friedman monetarism.
  The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Mr. John Biffen): What about Healey monetarism?
  Mr. Silkin: If the Chief Secretary is proposing to apply for membership of the Leeds, East Labour Party, I should not if I were him. His application is bound to be refused.
  I understand from The Times of last Friday that Mr. Hayek still thinks that the Prime Minister is right. However, he thinks that she is being betrayed by half her Cabinet and Milton Friedman. He does not say which half of the Cabinet, but he names as fairly large traitors in this area the Secretary of State for Employment and the Lord Privy Seal.
  Mr. Hayek has a simple monetarist formula for solving all our ills. He says that all we need is 20 per cent. unemployment for six months. He does not think that the Prime Minister's method of 10 per cent. unemployment for three years is quite good enough. He thinks that a good short, sharp shock — I think that is what the Home Secretary would call it—would be better.
  Mr. Robert Parry Mr. Robert Parry (Liverpool, Scotland Exchange) rose—
  Hon. Members: Hear, hear.
  Mr. Parry: Never mind "Hear, hear". Are Conservative Members aware that it is stated in a written answer that in my constituency there are nearly 20,000 unemployed in an electorate of 34,000? That is nearly 60 per cent. unemployment. There will be a massive demonstration in Liverpool—[Interruption.]
  Mr. Deputy Speaker (Mr. Bryant Godman Irvine): Order. We shall make no progress unless we can hear what is being said.
  Mr. Silkin: I realise that Conservative Members have to laugh to prevent themselves from seeing exactly what is happening to their Government and their constituencies. However, the sort of information that my hon. Friend the Member for Liverpool, Scotland Exchange (Mr. Parry) has presented is something to which they should listen. It is an important illustration of what is happening to the country and the fabric of our society. If there are similar rates of unemployment elsewhere, how long do Conservative Members think it will be before our boasted law and order, stability and all the rest of it are unable to survive the test?
  My hon. Friend has demonstrated extremely effectively the extent of the logic of Mr. Hayek and of the Prime Minister, who is Mr. Hayek's favourite pupil. However, Mr. Hayek has talked about exactly what is happening in my hon. Friend's constituency. He said:
  "Britain would have been much better if it had bigger and better bankruptcies."

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  On that he cannot really fault the Government—it would be most unjust — because there were 936 bankruptcies last month, the highest total for almost half a century.
  One of the reasons why Conservative Members made such a noise a moment ago is that most of them no longer believe in the monetarism in which they believed 18 months ago. HON. MEMBERS: "Rubbish."] Conservative Members can say "rubbish" to their hearts' content. It is not an elegant expression, nor is it intelligent, and I should like an intelligent interruption if I could have one.
  Mr. John Biggs-Davison Mr. John Biggs-Davison (Epping Forest) rose—
  Mr. Silkin: I said "an intelligent interruption."
  Mr. Biggs-Davison Mr. Biggs-Davison rose—
  Mr. Deputy Speaker: Order.
  Mr. Biggs-Davison Mr. Biggs-Davison rose—
  Mr. Deputy Speaker: Order. The hon. Gentleman knows perfectly well that if the right hon. Gentleman does not give way he cannot have the Floor.
  Mr. Silkin: No one likes intelligent interventions better than I do, and I am still waiting for one.
  We are seeing the total destruction of that rather misguided ideal which motivated the Treasury Bench. Conservative Members are now beginning to understand that we have seen the end of that ideal.
  There was the faith that there would be tax cuts. There were tax cuts in the Chancellor's first Budget, but they were more than eaten away by the increase in VAT. Now, everyone is talking about increasing taxation. The right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell) put it extremely logically. Of course there will be increases in tax, and everyone knows it, the Chancellor especially. Whether he disguises it as he did on Monday or whether he does it directly through income tax or in any other way, tax, increases there will be, and there is no doubt about it.
  Another article of faith was that State moneys would no longer be allocated to steel, shipbuilding, the NEB or British Leyland. Conservative Members were somewhat absurd in that they relied on the Secretary of State for Industry, which is always a bad thing to do. I need go no further into that. It took a long time, it was too little and too late, but those subsidies were given. They shall continue to be given, because even the Secretary of State is beginning to learn that unless he gives the moneys those industries will go down the drain.
  The other article of faith was privatisation. My hon. Friends and I are still waiting for the sell-off of British Airways and British Aerospace. It has not happened yet, and it does not look as if it can happen.
  What about the faith that we would have radical changes in the CAP? Conservative Members, including the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, attacked me because I did not make enough changes in the CAP. The Conservative manifesto stated:
  "We believe that radical changes in the operation of the Common Agricultural Policy … are necessary".
  But suddenly the right hon. Gentleman is saying that the CAP is perfect and that he does not want any changes. Was not the same said about fisheries? I was accused of not being tough enough about fisheries, but suddenly the right hon. Gentleman is busy giving away our fisheries.
  There is a simple reason for that. On 30 May this year, the Prime Minister did a deal in Brussels. She said that she
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  would be satisfied only with a whole loaf, which by now would have meantabout£1,400 millionor£1,500million. She said that she would never be satisfied with half a loaf, but she had to be saisfied with half a loaf, although it will be pretty mouldy bread by the time she gets the money. She has not got it yet. In order to get it, she had to recognise that the principle of the common agricultural policy was right, and she gave her authority for that. I do not think that even the right hon. Member for Sidcup—he and I have disagreed over many years about the Common Market — ever accepted that the common agricultural policy was inviolate in principle. The Prime Minister also had to sign away a common fisheries policy by the end of the year, which she did. She has not yet got the money. She will lose the fish and the right to challenge the CAP. She may get her £700 million, or some of it, if the Danes are good enough to think that the bargain is right.
  It is no wonder that faith has not arrived and that doubt is still with us. It is no wonder that, whereas 18 months ago the Tory Party and the Prime Minister were saying that they could solve the problem in their terms in one Session, they are now saying that it will require two Sessions. A year from now they will be saying that it will need four or five Sessions. Heaven forfend that it should go that way.
  Ministers and policies are going in all directions. I read in the press the other day that even the Leader of the House is issuing coded smoke signals of dissent. He is civilised and cautious, and the code must be very good. I do not know what signals he is sending, although looked at from this side of the House the signals appear to be saying "Help".
  There is only one member of the Treasury Bench who still has total faith in what is happening, despite the destruction of the policies and the ideals. That person is the Prime Minister. According to Patrick Cosgrave, who wrote a biography of the Prime Minister, in her young days the Prime Minister's favourite author was C. S. Lewis, which is perfectly normal for any undergraduate. It is worth re-reading "The Screwtape Letters", because there is a description there of a lady who is exactly like the Prime Minister. It says:
  "She is the sort of woman who lives for others. You can always tell the others by their hunted expression."
  And most of her colleagues are hunted. The right hon. Lady quoted St. Francis of Assisi. Let us quote him in his entirety:
  "Where there is despair, may we bring hope."
  Hope of unemployment? Who would ever have expected to see the Financial Times headline of yesterday which said:
  "One in 12 adults workless in the record post-war total."
  That is what it is all about.
  My hon. Friends look at their own regions and wonder what is happening to them. As far as this country is concerned, we are all regions now. Unemployment is increasing at a high rate everywhere. The West Midlands were once regarded as the heartland of the Conservative Party. They could never be touched, and they hardly were during the 1930s. During the past 12 months, unemployment in the West Midlands has risen by over 81 per cent. and in the East Midlands by 71 per cent. Even in the prosperous South-East it has risen by 60 per cent. Do not Conservative Members understand what is happening in this country? They can no longer rely on a

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  built-in majority in the Midlands and in the South-East; it is not there. We are seeing the growth of national unemployment, not simply regional unemployment.
  Added to this, we have the effect of the right hon. and learned Gentleman's "Budget" on Monday. It will mean that an additional 200,000 jobs will be lost by the end of the next financial year. That is what that bit of arithmetic did. I do not really mind whether the right hon. and learned Gentleman was trying to pull a fast one on Monday or whether he was trying to do a Tarzan act. That is immaterial; it is over and done with. What I say to him is that it is better to be honest with the House and with the country and to come straight out with things.
  I have always admired the way in which the Chief Secretary to the Treasury deals with matters. He believes what he says to be right, and he accepts what he believes to be the penalties of being right. He is not afraid to say what he believes to be right. It is about time the Chancellor took that point of view.
  We have seen the record of the Government during the past 18 months. That is why the Gracious Speech is clothed, as it is, in frivolous and irrelevant language—to hide from us its real purpose and its real faults and failures. As the country is made more and more aware of what is happening, it is turning away from the right hon. Lady and the whole of her Government.
  It was said earlier in the debate—I think, echoing the Prime Minister — that people abroad are saying how wonderful the Government are. Not many people in this country are saying it. All they can see at the moment are the desperate tatters of a policy put forward in the hope that people will believe that there is no alternative to it.
  But there is an alternative policy. First, we need to have more public spending. [Interruption.] Do not Conservative Members understand that three-quarters of the cuts made in public expenditure have been in the private sector? My hon. Friend the Member for Thurrock (Dr. McDonald) was right when she said that £23 billion had been cut from the private sector. The construction industry in capital alone has suffered a £2 billion cut. It is private industry that is suffering when public expenditure is cut in this way.
  The CBI is learning a little but not very much. It has got as far as saying that there should be no cuts in capital expenditure. It is nearly there; it still has a little to learn. When it learns that we have to build schools but that if we build schools we must not sack the teachers, it will have learnt the lesson. [Interruption.] My hon. Friends need not worry about the noise. Conservative Members get much noisier the more the truth hurts. They are as quiet as little mice when they agree with a speech.
  The other day, the right hon. Lady went to the motor exhibition in Birmingham. She ignored all the foreign stands and made a beeline for the Mini Metro stand. Good luck to her. But she did not draw the lesson that she should have learnt from it. The only way in which the Mini Metro, which is a world beater, could possibly be built was by public investment in BL. That is the truth of it.
  The country knows and understands that we believe in public ownership and that we believe in public investment. We believe in seeing that, where necessary, there are controls to prevent imports which destroy our own manufacturing base from coming into this country.
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  That is the policy of the Labour Party. That is the policy that we shall take to the country when the time comes. But meanwhile we say this to the right hon. Lady and to her Government. The Gracious Speech which you are putting before this country and before this House is a fake and a disaster, as is your policy and your philosophy. Once again, this country — [HON. MEMBERS: "The Gracious Speech".] — I must teach Conservative Members who write the Gracious Speech. They might take a little lesson in civic rights and responsibilities. That is why we have moved the amendment, and that is why I call on my right hon. and hon. Friends to divide the House.
  9.30 pm
  The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Leader of the House of Commons and Minister for the Arts (Mr. Norman St. John-Stevas): It is the traditional duty of the Leader of the House to reply to the debate on the Gracious Speech. It is a daunting task to compress into 30 minutes a reply to a debate that has lasted six days and has ranged over the whole of the economic and political spectrum. The advantage is that I have done it before and, God and everyone else concerned willing, I shall do it again.
  In many ways this has been a sombre debate, and that is appropriate. It takes place against a background of a world recession of the greatest gravity and against the background of domestic recession, the sharpness and depth of which has been referred to by so many hon. Members. Hon. Members have had to go back to the 1930s to find a parallel. Despite those sombre parallels, the debate has been enlivened by flashes of humour and wit. That is right, because it is part of our parliamentary tradition. I agree that today has been a remarkable day. The House has been at its best, and also at its worst.
  The Opposition have been less than just to my right hon. and learned Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer. I pay tribute to him for his moral courage and steadfastness in the face of totally unjustified attacks. We Chancellors must stand together. It is a day on which we have heard three remarkable speeches: that of the right hon. Member for Down, South (Mr. Powell), that of the right hon. Member for Cardiff, South-East (Mr. Callaghan) and that of my right hon. Friend the Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath). [Interruption.] He is my friend. He has a lot of responsibility, because he launched me on what I think of, in my more euphoric moments, as my political career.
  I thank the right hon. Member for Cardiff, South-East for his speech. At a time of great stress and difficulty, he threw his moral weight and authority against the people of violence and in maintenance of those who seek to uphold our liberties under the law. I also thank my right hon. Friend the Member for Sidcup for raising our eyes to the wider issues in the world. HON. MEMBERS: "Overseas aid."] There is no greater problem than the relationship between the developed and the undeveloped world. We have nothing to be ashamed of in terms of our record on overseas aid.
  Mr. Michael Foot: Just to cheer things up, will the right hon. Gentleman tell us whether, on the question of overseas aid and the amount that should be allocated, he agrees with the right hon. Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath) or with the Prime Minister?
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: On this occasion my right hon. Friend the Member for Sidcup was not as short on facts

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  as was the Leader of the Opposition, but he was not quite correct. Our aid record is excellent. Our gross aid is £1,000 million a year. It is higher than for most countries that take part in aid programmes.
  It seems a long time since we heard the two excellent speeches by my hon. Friends the Members for Wokingham (Mr. van Straubenzee) and Nelson and Colne (Mr. Lee) moving the reply to the Gracious Speech. We have not heard much about education in the debate, but I should like to pay tribute to my hon. Friend the Member for Wokingham for his contribution to that area. It was both concerned and civilised. My hon. Friend had some fun with his name. I recall what the late Gilbert Harding said about my name. He said that it was not well known enough to be a household word—of course, that was said some years ago—and it was too long to be a detergent.
  The right hon. Member for Deptford (Mr. Silkin) did not think a great deal of the Gracious Speech. However, I believe that it puts forward a moderate and balanced programme of legislation considerably lighter than in the last Session. That is right. It is no task of a Conservative Government to turn the House of Commons into a legislative engine. In any case it is not necessary, because we have 75 per cent. of our legislative promises on the statute book. By the end of this Session we shall have only 10 per cent. to fulfil.
  Our programme is a good balance of economic, social and legal measures. The Industry Bill, the Iron and Steel Bill, the Companies Bill, the Insurance Bill and the Bill to reorganise the British National Oil Corporation are all contributions to solving our economic problems.
  In the social sector, I draw the attention of the House to the Bill that proposes to deal with the problems of children with special educational needs, which at long last will implement the recommendations of the Warnock committee. The Wildlife and Countryside Bill is an important conservation measure.
  In the legal sphere there will be Bills to abolish the "sus" law and to implement the Phillimore report on contempt of court, as well as the long-awaited Bill on the nationality laws. These are important Bills.
  This may not be a very exciting programme, but it is workmanlike and necessary.
  Mr. Laurie Pavitt Mr. Laurie Pavitt (Brent, South) rose—
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: Legislative work is tedious, and its tedium is appreciated fully only by those who have to take part in it.
  We must also continue our work on the reform of Parliament long after the debates on economic affairs have been consigned to the volumes of Hansard—and there can surely be no greater oblivion than that.
  Mr. Pavitt Mr. Pavitt rose—
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: The system of Select Committees, which have been such a resounding success—[HON. MEMBERS: "Oh."] They have. The Opposition may not like them, but they have redressed the balance between Westminster and Whitehall in favour of Westminster. We shall shortly be setting up a new Procedure Committee to investigate Supply and to restore a most important function of the House—the granting and withholding of Supply — a function that has not adequately been performed for many years. This is the
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  Government's contribution on the legislative side. This constructive programme is something of a contrast to the Opposition's attitude.
  The most extraordinary and depressing thing about this long debate is that we have had hardly a single constructive idea from the Opposition on the way to handle our affairs. It was the Leader of the Opposition who set the tone in that dog's dinner of an opening speech. It would have fed only a very small dog. I remind him that, unlikely as it may seem, he is now part of the constitution. As Leader of the Opposition, he is paid a salary to produce a constructive alternative to the present Government. I do not think that that money is being earned. Perhaps the right hon. Gentleman, like so many of his colleagues on the Front Bench, is too busy writing books. [HON. MEMBERS: "Cheap."] No, they are not cheap. They are extremely expensive. I know that, because I have bought the right hon. Gentleman's books.
  There is one thing for which the Opposition are memorable—the literary output, the torrent of diaries, memoirs, novels, monographs and biographies that are pouring from them. I notice that the right hon. Member for Leeds, East (Mr. Healey) has added to his title "Healey's Eye—A Philosophic Memoir." As I look at the right hon. Gentleman, I should have thought that he was more suitable to a prize fight than a platonic dialogue. He made a rather unfortunate excursion into literature today when he misquoted the poet Browning, saying that it will never be a "bright confident morning again" instead of a "glad confident morning". Did he remember at that time the title of the poem "The Lost Leader"? It is disappointing that the only idea that the right hon. Gentleman could produce, after so many Budgets, was that ridiculous and unrealistic suggestion to increase the public sector borrowing requirement to £18½ billion.
  Mr. Healey Mr. Healey indicated dissent.
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: The right hon. Gentleman said it. I added up his figures, and that is what it came to.
  As in the economic fields, so in the social fields the Opposition are bereft of positive ideas or policies. On housing, the right hon. Member for Birmingham, Sparkbrook (Mr. Hattersley) — the so-called "gang of one"—is so obsessed with his vendetta against my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment, which has achieved almost Sicilian proportions, that he has missed one of the most significant social revolutions of our age, which is that for the first time in the history of this country every citizen has the right to buy his own house. [Interruption.]
  Several Hon. Members Several Hon. Members rose—
  Mr. Deputy Speaker: Order. The Leader of the House.
  Mr. St. John-Stevas,: At a stroke, we have bridged the wide—[Interruption.]
  Several Hon. Members Several Hon. Members rose——
  Mr. Deputy Speaker: Order. The Leader of the House.
  Mr. Bob Cryer: On a point of order, Mr. Deputy Speaker. We have had enough misleading of the House already during this Session. [Interruption.]
  Mr. Deputy Speaker: Order. It might be convenient if I could hear the point of order that the hon. Gentleman is making.
  Mr. Cryer: We have had enough misleading of the House in our debates on the Queen's Speech. The Leader of the House said that every citizen has the right to buy his own home. That is patently not true. Private tenants do not have such a right. [Interruption.]
  Mr. Deputy Speaker: Order. I have heard enough to know that that is not a point of order.
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: Equally — [HON. MEMBERS: "Withdraw."] Equally important is the pledge that was given — [HON. MEMBERS: "Answer."] Even fewer tenants will be allowed to buy their own homes if the right hon. Member for Sparkbrook ever returns to power, because he has pledged that councils will be empowered to buy back at confiscatory prices houses that have been sold.
  Hon. Members: The right hon. Gentleman is misleading the House.
  Mr. David Winnick: On a point of order, Mr. Deputy Speaker. Is there no way in which we can persuade the Leader of the House to tell the truth?
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: Well—[HON. MEMBERS: "Apologise."] I will not apologise, but if it will get me a little peace and quiet I will say that the hon. Member for Keighley (Mr. Cryer) is right. There are some private tenants who do not have the right to buy their own houses. [HON. MEMBERS: "All private tenants."] No, not at all.
  Mr. James Wellbeloved: What about the unemployed?
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: I shall move on to unemployment if I am allowed to do so. Before doing so, I should like to take this first opportunity to congratulate the right hon. Member for Ebbw Vale (Mr. Foot) on his translation to Leader of the Opposition.
  Mr. Walter Harrison: That has taken 16 minutes.
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: The right hon. Member for Ebbw Vale owes me a great debt. I supported him in the election for the leadership of the Labour Party. Indeed, it is a double debt, because I did not tell anyone that I was doing so—unlike my noble Friend Lord Thorneycroft, who hailed the right hon. Member for Leeds, East as the morning star of monetarism. And that was the end of his candidature.
  Anyhow, the bride has gone on to the church and I am left with the bridesmaid, the right hon. Member for Deptford, standing in as shadow Leader of the House, which is a rather tenuous position for a man of his ability and ambition. I wish him well. At the age of 57 he is one of the bright young hopefuls of the gerontocracy that occupies the Opposition Front Bench. [AN HON. MEMBER: "What is the age of the Leader of the House?"] Well, it is not as much as that, and in any case I am better preserved.
  The speech of the right hon. Member for Deptford was as gloomy as every other speech from the Opposition. It has been interesting that every Labour Member who has spoken in the debate has disinterred with glee every piece of bad news that he or she could find.
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  Of course, things are difficult. No one could pretend otherwise. We as a nation depend more than any other nation on foreign trade, and we are in the middle of a world recession. But let us get it into some sort of perspective. We are nearing the bottom of the recession. Certainly things are bad, but they will get better.
  I shall give one sphere where things are getting better. Inflation is coming down. The yearly rate is down to 15·4 per cent. The monthly rate is down to 4·3 per cent. That carries great hope for the future.
  I ask Opposition Members to appreciate that the parallel with the 1930s is partly bad but it could also be partly good. While the early 1930s were a dismal period, the late 1930s were a great improvement. I am talking about the economic situation. I am not talking about foreign affairs.
  Mr. Healey Mr. Healey rose—
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: If the right hon. Gentleman will allow me to finish this point, I shall give way to him. It was a period of falling unemployment. It was a period of great technical innovation, it was a period of the founding of new businesses. One can see them if one walks down the Great West Road. Those developments are being paralleled again.
  Mr. Healey: Is the right hon. Gentleman really claiming that the objective of the Prime Minister is to improve the economic situation of this country by confecting a war?
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: That is an absurd intervention. [HON. MEMBERS: "NO."] The right hon. Gentleman should go back to literature.
  Another theme of the debate has been concern over unemployment. Both former Prime Ministers expressed their concern. So, rightly, did the hon. Member for Liverpool, Scotland Exchange (Mr. Parry). The unemployment situation is one of desperate concern, I believe, to every Member of the House. The right hon. Member for Down, South warned us against bringing out peashooters to project statistics across the Floor of the House and asked what would be the effect on the people in the dole queues.
  Surely, this House can recognise the fact that we face long-term structural problems of unemployment in this country. While we will take our share of responsibility for the present unemployment figures, we will not accept the accusation, heard again and again from the Opposition, first by the right hon. Member for Bristol, South-East (Mr. Benn), that we are deliberately increasing unemployment as a matter of policy. [HON. MEMBERS: "You are."] It is untrue. It is scandalous. It is unworthy of the Opposition Front Bench to join in that accusation. There is not an hon. Member of the House who is not concerned about unemployment. It is a slander on the Government side of the House. It casts a shadow over the whole House of Commons to conduct a debate in that way.
  However important our domestic relations, and however pressing, we have to see them always in the perspective of foreign affairs and defence. On the two crucial issues of membership of the EEC and nuclear defence, the Opposition's policy, as revealed in the debate, is completely irresponsible. It is the official policy of the Labour Party to withdraw from the Community and to scrap nuclear weapons. I can respect someone like the hon. Member for Keighley (Mr. Cryer)—I am paying the hon. Gentleman a tribute and he should catch it while

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  it is available—and others on the Back Benches who, as an act of conscience, make their view on nuclear weapons known.
  On another issue the hon. Gentleman resigned from the Government. That is something that should earn the respect of everyone in the House. But it is quite a different thing for someone who is Leader of the Opposition and, therefore, at some future time may be called to be in charge of the defence of this country, to be a unilateral disarmer. That casts doubt upon the whole of this country's policy.
  So we come to the end of this debate, with the Opposition having put forward no constructive policies. What has emerged is that there is a clear-cut alternative, between a Government with all their faults and limitations — [HON. MEMBERS: "Hear, Hear."] Of course. All Governments have limitations. There is all the difference between a Government determined to face the realities of our situation, both at home and abroad, and put forward positive proposals to solve our problems and an Opposition who, on every major issue, are either totally confused or bitterly divided.
  Mr. Foot: As the right hon. Gentleman seems to be running out of material, perhaps I can help him. I see that he is now holding up some more papers. That must be his reserve. I was looking at the sheet that he had in front of him.
  Some of us who have listened to most of the debate think that it is one of the most remarkable debates that we have heard in the House. We are prepared to answer in future debates all the questions that the right hon. Gentleman has raised. Those who have listened to this debate are waiting to hear the Government's answer to the right hon. Member for Sidcup (Mr. Heath). Why does the Leader of the House not face up to what the right hon. Gentleman said? After all, the right hon. Gentleman was elected on the same manifesto as the Prime Minister. The right hon. Gentleman today spelt out to the House what would happen if the Government proceeded upon the present course. He said "Please, please, for the safety of this nation, change course." What is the answer of the Leader of the House to that?
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: I hope—[HON. MEMBERS: "Answer."]—that I shall be allowed—
  Mr. Deputy Speaker: Order. Unless we can hear what the right hon. Gentleman says, he cannot answer.
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: My first remark is that the right hon. Gentleman is not a totally objective witness. My second is that, having been attacked from one side by my right hon. Friend the Member for Sidcup and from the other by the right hon. Member for Down, South, I conclude that we are probably getting it about right, against an Opposition who, on every major issue, whether public ownership, incomes policy, taxation, monetarism or membership of Europe—[HON. MEMBERS: "Answer."] I am answering the Leader of the Opposition. How can a party with so little unity and so little credibility offer an alternative Government?
  Mr. Healey: Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: No.
  Mr. Healey Mr. Healey rose—
  Mr. Deputy Speaker: Order.
  Mr. St. John-Stevas: The truth is that despite the difficulties of the day, despite the period that we are going through, the hopes and aspirations of the majority of our fellow citizens, rest with this Government. When you are in the depths of winter, Mr. Deputy Speaker, you think that spring will never come. It will, and it does. What people need today is hope, the hope that Arthur Benson linked with glory, and it is this Government who alone at this crisis offer our country hope for the future.
  Question put, That the amendment be made:—
  The House divided: Ayes 259, Noes 319.

  Division No. 2]

  [10 pm.

  AYES

  Abse, Leo

  Dunwoody, Hon Mrs G.

  Adams, Allen

  Eadie, Alex

  Allaun, Frank

  Eastham, Ken

  Alton, David

  Edwards, R. (W'hampt'n S E)

  Anderson, Donald

  Ellis, R. (NE D'bysh're)

  Archer, Rt Hon Peter

  Ellis, Tom (Wrexham)

  Armstrong, Rt Hon Ernest

  English, Michael

  Ashley, Rt Hon Jack

  Ennals, Rt Hon David

  Ashton, Joe

  Evans, Ioan (Aberdare)

  Atkinson, N. (H'gey,)

  Evans, John (Newton)

  Bagier, Gordon A.T.

  Ewing, Harry

  Barnett, Guy (Greenwich)

  Faulds, Andrew

  Barnett, Rt Hon Joel (H'wd)

  Field, Frank

  Beith, A. J.

  Fitch, Alan

  Benn, Rt Hon A. Wedgwood

  Fitt, Gerard

  Bennett, Andrew (St'kp't N)

  Flannery, Martin

  Bidwell, Sydney

  Fletcher, Raymond (Ilkeston)

  Booth, Rt Hon Albert

  Fletcher, Ted (Darlington)

  Boothroyd, Miss Betty

  Foot, Rt Hon Michael

  Bottomley, Rt Hon A. (M'b'ro)

  Ford, Ben

  Bradley, Tom

  Forrester, John

  Bray, Dr Jeremy

  Foster, Derek

  Brown, Hugh D. (Provan)

  Foulkes, George

  Brown, Ron (E'burgh, Leith)

  Fraser, J. (Lamb'th, N'w'd)

  Brown, Ronald W. (H'ckn'y S)

  Freeson, Rt Hon Reginald

  Buchan, Norman

  Freud, Clement

  Callaghan, Rt Hon J.

  Garrett, John (Norwich S)

  Callaghan, Jim (Midd't'n & P)

  Garrett, W. E. (Wallsend)

  Campbell, Ian

  George, Bruce

  Campbell-Savours, Dale

  Gilbert, Rt Hon Dr John

  Canavan, Dennis

  Ginsburg, David

  Cant, R. B.

  Golding, John

  Carmichael, Neil

  Gourlay, Harry

  Carter-Jones, Lewis

  Graham, Ted

  Cartwright, John

  Grant, George (Morpeth)

  Cocks, Rt Hon M. (B'stol S)

  Grimond, Rt Hon J.

  Cohen, Stanley

  Hamilton, W. W. (C'tral Fife)

  Conlan, Bernard

  Hardy, Peter

  Cook, Robin F.

  Harrison, Rt Hon Walter

  Cowans, Harry

  Hart, Rt Hon Dame Judith

  Craigen, J. M.

  Haynes, Frank

  Crowther, J. S.

  Healey, Rt Hon Denis

  Cryer, Bob

  Heffer, Eric S.

  Cunliffe, Lawrence

  Hogg, Hon Douglas (Gr'th'm)

  Cunningham, G. (Islington S)

  Holland, S. (L'b'th, Vauxh'll)

  Dalyell, Tam

  Home Robertson, John

  Davidson, Arthur

  Homewood, William

  Davies, Rt Hon Denzil (L'lli)

  Hooley, Frank

  Davies, Ifor (Gower)

  Horam, John

  Davis, Clinton (Hackney C)

  Howell, Rt Hon D.

  Davis, T. (B'ham, Stechf'd)

  Huckfield, Les

  Deakins, Eric

  Hudson Davies, Gwilym E.

  Dean, Joseph (Leeds West)

  Hughes, Mark (Durham)

  Dempsey, James

  Hughes, Robert (Aberdeen N)

  Dewar, Donald

  Hughes, Roy (Newport)

  Dixon, Donald

  Janner, Hon Greville

  Dobson, Frank

  Jay, Rt Hon Douglas

  Dormand, Jack

  John, Brynmor

  Douglas, Dick

  Johnson, James (Hull West)

  Douglas-Mann, Bruce

  Johnston, Russell (Inverness)

  Dubs, Alfred

  Jones, Rt Hon Alec (Rh'dda)

  Duffy, A. E. P.

  Jones, Barry (East Flint)

  Dunn, James A.

  Jones, Dan (Burnley)

  Dunnett, Jack

  Kaufman, Rt Hon Gerald

  659

  Kerr, Russell

  Roberts, Albert (Normanton)

  Kilfedder, James A.

  Roberts, Allan (Bootle)

  Kilroy-Silk, Robert

  Roberts, Gwilym (Cannock)

  Kinnock, Neil

  Robertson, George

  Lambie, David

  Robinson, G. (Coventry NW)

  Lamborn, Harry

  Rodgers, Rt Hon William

  Leadbitter, Ted

  Rooker, J. W.

  Leighton, Ronald

  Ross, Ernest (Dundee West)

  Lestor, Miss Joan

  Ross, Stephen (Isle of Wight)

  Lewis, Ron (Carlisle)

  Rowlands, Ted

  Litherland, Robert

  Ryman, John

  Lofthouse, Geoffrey

  Sandelson, Neville

  Lyon, Alexander (York)

  Sheerman, Barry

  Lyons, Edward (Bradf'd W)

  Sheldon, Rt Hon R.

  Mabon, Rt Hon Dr J. Dickson

  Shore, Rt Hon Peter

  McDonald, Dr Oonagh

  Short, Mrs Renée

  McElhone, Frank

  Silkin, Rt Hon J. (Deptford)

  McGuire, Michael (Ince)

  Silkin, Rt Hon S. C. (Dulwich)

  McKay, Allen (Penistone)

  Silverman, Julius

  McKelvey, William

  Smith, Rt Hon J. (N Lanark)

  MacKenzie, Rt Hon Gregor

  Snape, Peter

  Maclennan, Robert

  Soley, Clive

  McNally, Thomas

  Spearing, Nigel

  McNamara, Kevin

  Spriggs, Leslie

  McTaggart, Robert

  Stallard, A. W.

  McWilliam, John

  Steel, Rt Hon David

  Magee, Bryan

  Stewart, Rt Hon D. (W Isles)

  Marks, Kenneth

  Stoddart, David

  Marshall, Dr Edmund (Goole)

  Stott, Roger

  Marshall, Jim (Leicester S)

  Strang, Gavin

  Martin, M (G'gow S'burn)

  Summerskill, Hon Dr Shirley

  Mason, Rt Hon Roy

  Taylor, Mrs Ann (Bolton W)

  Maxton, John

  Thomas, Dafydd (Merioneth)

  Maynard, Miss Joan

  Thomas, Jeffrey (Abertillery)

  Meacher, Michael

  Thomas, Mike (Newcastle E)

  Mellish, Rt Hon Robert

  Thomas, Dr R. (Carmarthen)

  Mikardo, Ian

  Thorne, Stan (Preston South)

  Millan, Rt Hon Bruce

  Tilley, John

  Miller, Dr M. S. (E Kilbride)

  Tinn, James

  Mitchell, Austin (Grimsby)

  Torney, Tom

  Mitchell, R. C. (Soton Itchen)

  Urwin, Rt Hon Tom

  Morris, Rt Hon A. (W'shawe)

  Varley, Rt Hon Eric G.

  Morris, Rt Hon C. (O'shaw)

  Wainwright, E (Dearne V)

  Morris, Rt Hon J. (Aberavon)

  Wainwright, R. (Colne V)

  Morton, George

  Walker, Rt Hon H. (D'caster)

  Moyle, Rt Hon Roland

  Watkins, David

  Mulley, Rt Hon Frederick

  Weetch, Ken

  Newens, Stanley

  Wellbeloved, James

  Ogden, Eric

  Welsh, Michael

  O'Halloran, Michael

  White, Frank R.

  O'Neill, Martin

  White, J. (G'gow Pollok)

  Orme, Rt Hon Stanley

  Whitehead, Phillip

  Owen, Rt Hon Dr David

  Whitlock, William

  Paisley, Rev Ian

  Willey, Rt Hon Frederick

  Palmer, Arthur

  Williams, Rt Hon A (S'sea W)

  Park, George

  Williams, Sir T. (W'ton)

  Parker, John

  Wilson, Rt Hon Sir H. (H'ton)

  Parry, Robert

  Wilson, William (C'try SE)

  Pavitt, Laurie

  Winnick, David

  Pendry, Tom

  Woodall, Alec

  Penhaligon, David

  Woolmer, Kenneth

  Powell, Raymond (Ogmore)

  Wrigglesworth, Ian

  Price, C. (Lewisham W)

  Wright, Sheila

  Race, Reg

  Young, David (Bolton E)

  Radice, Giles

  Tellers for the Ayes:

  Rees, Rt Hon M (Leeds S)

  Mr. Donald Coleman and

  Richardson, Jo

  Mr. James Hamilton.

  NOES

  Adley, Robert

  Baker, Nicholas (N Dorset)

  Aitken, Jonathan

  Banks, Robert

  Alexander, Richard

  Beaumont-Dark, Anthony

  Alison, Michael

  Bell, Sir Ronald

  Amery, Rt Hon Julian

  Bendall, Vivian

  Ancram, Michael

  Bennett, Sir Frederic (T'bay)

  Arnold, Tom

  Benyon, Thomas (A'don)

  Aspinwall, Jack

  Benyon, W. (Buckingham)

  Atkins, Rt Hon H. (S'thorne)

  Best, Keith

  Atkinson, David (B'm'th, E)

  Bevan, David Gilroy

  Baker, Kenneth (St.M'bone)

  Biffen, Rt Hon John

  660

  Biggs-Davison, John

  Garel-Jones, Tristan

  Blackburn, John

  Gilmour, Rt Hon Sir Ian

  Blaker, Peter

  Goodhart, Philip

  Body, Richard

  Goodhew, Victor

  Bonsor, Sir Nicholas

  Goodlad, Alastair

  Boscawen, Hon Robert

  Gorst, John

  Bottomley, Peter (W'wich W)

  Gow, Ian

  Bowden, Andrew

  Gower, Sir Raymond

  Boyson, Dr Rhodes

  Grant, Anthony (Harrow C)

  Braine, Sir Bernard

  Gray, Hamish

  Bright, Graham

  Greenway, Harry

  Brinton, Tim

  Grieve, Percy

  Brittan, Leon

  Griffiths, E. (B'y St. Edm'ds)

  Brocklebank-Fowler, C.

  Griffiths, Peter Portsm'th N)

  Brooke, Hon Peter

  Grist, Ian

  Brotherton, Michael

  Grylls, Michael

  Brown, M. (Brigg and Scun)

  Gummer, John Selwyn

  Browne, John (Winchester)

  Hamilton, Hon A.

  Bruce-Gardyne, John

  Hamilton, Michael (Salisbury)

  Bryan, Sir Paul

  Hampson, Dr Keith

  Buchanan-Smith, Hon Alick

  Hannam, John

  Buck, Antony

  Haselhurst, Alan

  Budgen, Nick

  Hastings, Stephen

  Bulmer, Esmond

  Havers, Rt Hon Sir Michael

  Burden, Sir Frederick

  Hawkins, Paul

  Butcher, John

  Hawksley, Warren

  Butler, Hon Adam

  Hayhoe, Barney

  Cadbury, Jocelyn

  Heath, Rt Hon Edward

  Carlisle, John (Luton West)

  Heddle, John

  Carlisle, Kenneth (Lincoln)

  Henderson, Barry

  Carlisle, Rt Hon M. (R'c'n)

  Heseltine, Rt Hon Michael

  Channon, Rt. Hon. Paul

  Hicks, Robert

  Chapman, Sydney

  Higgins, Rt Hon Terence L.

  Churchill, W. S.

  Hill, James

  Clark, Hon A. (Plym'th, S'n)

  Hogg, Hon Douglas (Gr'th'm)

  Clark, Sir W. (Croydon S)

  Holland, Philip (Carton)

  Clegg, Sir Walter

  Hooson, Tom

  Cockeram, Eric

  Hordern, Peter

  Colvin, Michael

  Howe, Rt Hon Sir Geoffrey

  Cope, John

  Howell, Rt Hon D. (G'ldf'd)

  Cormack, Patrick

  Howell, Ralph (N Norfolk)

  Corrie, John

  Hunt, David (Wirral)

  Costain, Sir Albert

  Hunt, John (Ravensbourne)

  Cranborne, Viscount

  Hurd, Hon Douglas

  Critchley, Julian

  Irving, Charles (Cheltenham)

  Crouch, David

  Jenkin, Rt Hon Patrick

  Dean, Paul (North Somerset)

  Jessel, Toby

  Dorrell, Stephen

  Johnson Smith, Geoffrey

  Douglas-Hamilton, Lord J.

  Jopling, Rt Hon Michael

  Dover, Denshore

  Joseph, Rt Hon Sir Keith

  du Cann, Rt Hon Edward

  Kaberry, Sir Donald

  Dunn, Robert (Dartford)

  Kellett-Bowman, Mrs Elaine

  Durant, Tony

  Kershaw, Anthony

  Dykes, Hugh

  Kimball, Marcus

  Eden, Rt Hon Sir John

  King, Rt Hon Tom

  Edwards, Rt Hon N. (P'broke)

  Kitson, Sir Timothy

  Eggar, Tim

  Knight, Mrs Jill

  Elliott, Sir William

  Knox, David

  Emery, Peter

  Lamont, Norman

  Eyre, Reginald

  Lang, Ian

  Fairbairn, Nicholas

  Langford-Holt, Sir John

  Fairgrieve, Russell

  Latham, Michael

  Faith, Mrs Sheila

  Lawrence, Ivan

  Farr, John

  Lawson, Nigel

  Fell, Anthony

  Lee, John

  Fenner, Mrs Peggy

  Lennox-Boyd, Hon Mark

  Finsberg, Geoffrey

  Lester Jim (Beeston)

  Fisher, Sir Nigel

  Lewis, Kenneth (Rutland)

  Fletcher, A. (Ed'nb'gh N)

  Lloyd, Ian (Havant & W'loo)

  Fletcher-Cooke, Charles

  Lloyd, Peter (Fareham)

  Fookes, Miss Janet

  Loveridge, John

  Forman, Nigel

  Luce, Richard

  Fowler, Rt Hon Norman

  Lyell, Nicholas

  Fox, Marcus

  McCrindle, Robert

  Fraser, Rt Hon Sir Hugh

  Macfarlane, Neil

  Fraser, Peter (South Angus)

  MacGregor, John

  Fry, Peter

  MacKay, John (Argyll)

  Galbraith, Hon T. G. D.

  Macmillan, Rt Hon M.

  Gardiner, George (Reigate)

  McNair-Wilson, M. (N'bury)

  Gardner, Edward (S Fylde)

  McNair-Wilson, P. (New F'st)

  661

  McQuarrie, Albert

  Pattie, Geoffrey

  Madel, David

  Pawsey, James

  Major, John

  Percival, Sir Ian

  Marland, Paul

  Peyton, Rt Hon John

  Marlow, Tony

  Pink, R. Bonner

  Marshall Michael (Arundel)

  Pollock, Alexander

  Mates, Michael

  Porter, Barry

  Mather, Carol

  Powell, Rt Hon J.E. (S Down)

  Maude, Rt Hon Angus

  Prentice, Rt Hon Reg

  Mawby, Ray

  Price, Sir David (Eastleigh)

  Mawhinney, Dr Brian

  Proctor, K. Harvey

  Maxwell-Hyslop, Robin

  Pym, Rt Hon Francis

  Mayhew, Patrick

  Rathbone, Tim

  Mellor, David

  Rees, Peter (Dover and Deal)

  Meyer, Sir Anthony

  Rees-Davies, W. R.

  Miller, Hal (B'grove)

  Renton, Tim

  Mills, lain (Meriden)

  Rhodes James, Robert

  Mills, Peter (West Devon)

  Rhys Williams, Sir Brandon

  Miscampbell, Norman

  Ridsdale, Julian

  Moate, Roger

  Rifkind, Malcolm

  Molyneaux, James

  Rippon, Rt Hon Geoffrey

  Monro, Hector

  Roberts, Wyn (Conway)

  Montgomery, Fergus

  Ross, Wm. (Londonderry)

  Morris, M. (N'hampton S)

  Rossi, Hugh

  Morrison, Hon C. (Devizes)

  Rost, Peter

  Morrison, Hon P. (Chester)

  Royle, Sir Anthony

  Mudd, David

  Sainsbury, Hon Timothy

  Murphy, Christopher

  St. John-Stevas, Rt Hon N.

  Myles, David

  Scott, Nicholas

  Neale, Gerrard

  Shaw, Giles (Pudsey)

  Needham, Richard

  Shaw, Michael (Scarborough)

  Nelson, Anthony

  Shelton, William (Streatham)

  Neubert, Michael

  Shepherd, Colin (Hereford)

  Newton, Tony

  Shepherd, Richard

  Normanton, Tom

  Shersby, Michael

  Onslow, Cranley

  Silvester, Fred

  Oppenheim, Rt Hon Mrs S.

  Skeet, T. H. H.

  Page, John (Harrow, West)

  Smith, Dudley

  Page, Rt Hon Sir G. (Crosby)

  Speed, Keith

  Page, Richard (SW Herts)

  Speller, Tony

  Parris, Matthew

  Spence, John

  Patten, Christopher (Bath)

  Spicer, Jim (West Dorset)

  Patten, John (Oxford)

  Spicer, Michael (S Worcs)

  662

  Sproat, Ian

  Wakeham, John

  Squire, Robin

  Waldegrave, Hon William

  Stanbrook, Ivor

  Walker, Rt Hon P. (W'cester)

  Stanley, John

  Walker, B. (Perth)

  Steen, Anthony

  Walker-Smith, Rt Hon Sir D.

  Stevens, Martin

  Wall, Patrick

  Stewart, Ian (Hitchin)

  Waller, Gary

  Stewart, J. (E Renfrewshire)

  Walters, Dennis

  Stokes, John

  Ward, John

  Stradling Thomas, J.

  Warren, Kenneth

  Tapsell, Peter

  Watson, John

  Taylor, Robert (Croydon NW)

  Wells, John (Maidstone)

  Taylor, Teddy (S'end E)

  Wells, Bowen

  Tebbit, Norman

  Wheeler, John

  Temple-Morris, Peter

  Whitelaw, Rt Hon William

  Thatcher, Rt Hon Mrs M.

  Whitney, Raymond

  Thomas, Rt Hon Peter

  Wickenden, Keith

  Thompson, Donald

  Wiggin, Jerry

  Thorne, Neil (Ilord South)

  Wilkinson, John

  Thornton, Malcolm

  Williams, D.(Montgomery)

  Townend, John (Bridlington)

  Winterton, Nicholas

  Townsend, Cyril D, (B'heath)

  Wolfson, Mark

  Trippier, David

  Young, Sir George (Acton)

  Trotter, Neville

  van Straubenzee, W. R.

  Tellers for the Noes:

  Vaughan, Dr Gerard

  Mr. Spencer Le Marchant

  Viggers, Peter

  and Mr. Anthony Berry.

  Waddington, David

  Question accordingly negatived.
  Main Question put and agreed to.
  Resolved,
  That an humble Address be presented to Her Majesty, as follows:
  Most Gracious Sovereign,
  We, Your Majesty's most dutiful and loyal subjects, the Commons of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in Parliament assembled, beg leave to offer our humble thanks to Your Majesty for the Gracious Speech which Your Majesty has addressed to both Houses of Parliament.
  To be presented by Privy Councillors or Members of Her Majesty's Household.

  Imprisonment (Temporary Provisions)
  10.16 pm
  The Minister of State, Home Office (Mr. Leon Brittan): I beg to move,
  That the draft Imprisonment (Temporary Provisions) Act 1980 (Continuance) Order 1980, which was laid before this House on 20 November, be approved.
  One month ago, my right hon. Friend the Home Secretary reluctantly asked the House to give him a number of far-reaching powers to deal with the consequences of the industrial action by prison officers. In doing so, he recognised the genuine concern expressed on both sides of the House, and particularly by the right hon. Member for Leeds, South (Mr. Rees), that those powers should be available for no longer than absolutely necessary.
  Accordingly, my right hon. Friend tabled an amendment to the Imprisonment (Temporary Provisions) Act 1980 which reduced the period during which the provisions in part I of the Act could remain in force without renewal from three months to one month. Equally, however, he made it clear that, much as he regretted the necessity for the wide powers available under the Act, he would not hesitate to seek their renewal should the prison officers' industrial action and its consequences persist. That is why I must ask the House tonight to approve the order which is now before it.
  The House will want to know first of all the position that has been reached in the dispute itself. As we have previously indicated, we believe that a solution is available. It lies in the adoption of a new duty system for prison officers which will eliminate the anomalies inherent in the present systems. Negotiations to achieve that end are being pursued vigorously.
  The director-general of the prison service has met the Prison Officers' Association on four occasions since negotiations began and hopes to do so again very soon. In addition, there have been frequent informal but detailed discussions between the Home Office and the POA at different levels on various aspects of the dispute, relating both to its consequences on the ground and to prospects of bringing it to an end. For reasons which will be obvious, I do not propose to go into the details of the negotiations, but, of course, I accept that if the dispute were unduly prolonged the House would quite naturally expect to be informed of the general nature of what the new duty system would offer.
  Hon. Members may have seen reports in The Times today which suggest that further progress may be slow. In fact, the Government have reason to assume that if the present negotiations continue to go forward the industrial action being taken by the Prison Officers' Association could be suspended well before a final decision is taken on the new duty system early in January.
  I must now, however, go on to remind the House of the consequences of the action that the prison officers have taken in pursuit of their claim for certain meal break allowances, since it is those consequences to which the provisions we are seeking to renew tonight are a response.
  Mr. Robert Kilroy-Silk: I do not wish to go into the merits of the dispute. However, will the hon. and learned Gentleman give an assurance that when a
  664
  disputes procedure is established for prison officers, the Government will be prepared to accept as a part of that procedure a provision whereby arbitration will be available to the parties, so that a dispute of the present sort need never arise in future?
  Mr. Brittan: I am not in a position to give such an assurance. The hon. Gentleman knows perfectly well that to isolate one claim and one point from the dispute as a whole does not serve a useful purpose in the middle of negotiations.
  The prison officers' action is essentially of three kinds. First, essential maintenance has been prevented and some workshops have been closed by a refusal to allow contractual work to be undertaken. Secondly, a refusal to carry out certain duties within prisons has led in many establishments to a serious deterioration in conditions for prisoners and the interruption of the normal routine for meals, exercise, work, education classes, association and visits. An inevitable consequence of such action has been to make regimes for prisoners even more barren than the existing stresses on the prison system have already made them. The third kind of industrial action taken by the Prison Officers' Association is perhaps the most serious, in that it disrupts not only the management of prisons themselves but the entire criminal justice system. The prison officers' refusal to receive prisoners sentenced or remanded by the courts is a direct challenge to the operation of that system.
  As a result, some 3,500 prisoners are being held in police cells. There have been a number of reports in the press about the poor conditions for prisoners in many such cells. Of course, they are unsatisfactory. The Government have stressed from the beginning of the dispute that the majority of police cells were neither intended nor suitable for prolonged detention. They should not be, and in normal circumstances are not, used for that purpose. At present, however, there is no alternative to the continued detention of large numbers of prisoners in police cells. Moreover, the inevitable result of the failure of one part of the criminal justice system to fulfil its function is to create additional burdens for the other parts. In particular, the police are continuing to have to divert resources away from their primary purposes to look after 3,500 people who should be in prison. I wish to take this opportunity of repeating my thanks and those of my right hon. Friend to the police for the admirable way in which they have coped with this difficult problem.
  It was largely to deal with the consequences of this form of industrial action that we asked for, and were granted, the powers contained in part I of the Imprisonment (Temporary Provisions) Act. The prison officers' action continues and the problems created by that action continue. Accordingly, I must ask the House for a renewal of those powers.
  In doing so, I should give the House an account of how those powers have been used. Section 1 of the Act enables prisoners to be held in places approved for that purpose by the Secretary of State. Two such places have been approved. First, Frankland prison, the new dispersal prison near Durham, has been temporarily opened ahead of schedule and now holds about 600 prisoners. The second is Rollestone camp on Salisbury Plain, which was opened on 4 November and now holds about 300 prisoners. Both Frankland and Rollestone are being run by senior prison staff in co-operation with the Armed Services

  665
  and the police. My right hon. Friend the Home Secretary has visited Frankland and my noble Friend the Under-secretary of State, Lord Belstead, has visited Rollestone. They were impressed with the efficiency with which both establishments are operating and with the way in which prisoners are being cared for in far from ideal circumstances. I pay particular tribute to the way in which members of the Armed Forces working in these establishments have adapted to their task. I know that the hon. Members for both places concerned have also visited them.
  Mr. Douglas Hogg: Before my hon. and learned Friend leaves the question of the two camps, can he say whether the prisoners held there are remand prisoners or prisoners who are beginning to serve their sentence after conviction?
  Mr. Brittan: I think I am right in saying that they are both. If I am wrong, I shall ensure that my hon. Friend is so informed.
  I should also like to take this opportunity to deal with several points raised by hon. Members during Committee proceedings on the Act about the operation of the approved places and in response to which I gave a number of assurances. The first relates to the application to the approved places of the prison rules. Section 1 enables my right hon. Friend to modify the prison rules as they apply to the approved places should that prove necessary. The hon. Member for Ormskirk (Mr. Kilroy-Silk) in particular wanted to be sure that the prison rules covering the most significant provisions for prisoners would obtain in the approved places. I gave him that assurance and undertook to inform the House of any modifications. In the event, my right hon. Friend announced in answer to a question from my hon. Friend the Member for Paddington (Mr. Wheeler) on 12 November that the only modifications in respect af approved places were to ensure that references to prison officers applied equally to Service men, where appropriate. My right hon. Friend has also made public, in answer to a question from the hon. Member for Durham (Mr. Hughes) on 12 November, the visiting arrangements for Frankland. Similar arrangements apply to Rollestone. I hope that that meets the points raised by hon. Members.
  The second issue which I should mention is that of young offenders. The hon. Member for Stockport, North (Mr. Bennett), supported by a number of his hon. Friends, asked for an assurance that no boys and girls aged under 16 should be detained in an approved place. I was unable to give such a categorical assurance, but I told the House that it was unlikely that this would be necessary as the number of receptions to detention centres and borstals were continuing with only limited delays. That remains the position. I can give no guarantee but, as I told the House in answer to a question from the hon. Member for Sheffield, Heeley (Mr. Hooley) on 13 November, I can at present foresee no circumstances in which it would be necessary to detain an offender under 16 years of age in an approved place.
  The third point raised during proceedings on the Act was that of the arrangements for local involvement in and inspection of the approved places. I gave an assurance then that boards of visitors would be appointed for Frankland and for any subsequent approved places. My right hon. Friend has invited some of those similarly involved in nearby prison establishments to form boards of visitors at
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  both Frankland and Rollestone, and I should like to thank them for this work they have done and the time they have given to it.
  The way in which Frankland and Rollestone have operated in far from ideal circumstances is a credit to all those concerned. As the House will appreciate, however, they are simply a response to an emergency and, as such, we would not wish to detain prisoners there longer than is necessary. We shall, of course, consider the question of any further camps as and when necessary.
  Section 2 of the Act provides that where a person has been remanded in custody by a magistrates' court he will not be brought before the court at the end of the period of remand unless the court requires. The section also empowers the court to remand a defendant in his absence. This provision was necessary because there was no guarantee that prisoners produced on remand would be allowed back to prison during the course of this dispute, and it was also necessary to relieve the police from the requirement of producing prisoners at courts often many miles away. Those considerations remain as valid now as they were a month ago. The need for the provision is just as great now as when the Act was passed.
  A number of hon. Members, including my hon. Friend the Member for Grantham (Mr. Hogg) and the hon. Members for York (Mr. Lyon), Ormskirk and Heeley, expressed particular concern about this during proceedings on the Act. In response to that concern, I undertook that the courts would be asked by a Home Office circular to give the most serious consideration to the granting of legal aid on the first occasion the defendant appeared before the court if the court decided to remand him in custody. Courts were so advised as soon as the Act came into force. We have made inquiries of a number of courts about the operation of section 2, including a check as recent as yesterday, and we have no reason to suppose that the arrangements I described to the House are not working as they were intended.
  Mr. Alexander W. Lyon: The Minister's assurance is all very well, but has he any statistics that may help us to form a judgment for ourselves? How many applications for legal aid in those circumstances have been refused?
  Mr. Brittan: I do not have statistics to support my statement. Statistics may be available at a later date, but I assure the hon. Gentleman and the House, as I have already done, that those concerned at the Home Office have made a series of serious checks, and I am sure that if there was any evidence that the provisions that I foreshadowed when we dealt with the Bill were not working it would have come to light. It is significant that there is no suggestion that they are not working.
  I turn now to the powers contained in sections 3, 4 and 5 of the Act to enable the Home Secretary to reduce the number of people in custody, by directing the release of persons committed or remanded in custody, by restricting the powers of the courts to commit to custody for non-payment of money and to direct the early release of prisoners not more than six months from the time when they would otherwise be released. When these provisions were debated during proceedings on the Act, my right hon. Friend the Home Secretary and, in another place, my noble Friend the Lord Chancellor made it quite clear that the Government were reluctant to use the powers

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  contained in sections 3, 4 and 5 and would do so only if absolutely necessary. Despite the continuing pressure on the police and those involved in running the temporary accommodation, we have not used these powers.
  About 1,000 extra places have been made available in the approved places to relieve the burden on police cells. More significantly, there has been a most welcome fall in the number of prisoners in custody. The prison population before the dispute began stood at a little over 44,000. There are now about 41,200 people in total in prisons, police cells and in Frankland and Rollestone. That is a fall of almost 3,000. We shall be analysing the reasons for that fall and, as my right hon. Friend said in the House on 13 November, it may be that some good will emerge in this respect at least.
  We have therefore got by. But we shall need to have the powers in sections 3, 4 and 5 available to us. If we can avoid using them, we shall. Nevertheless, if circumstances require, my right hon. Friend has indicated that he will not hesitate to use those powers.
  This dispute must be settled on terms which look to the future rather than the past. I very much hope that the current negotiations will enable that to happen, but we consider that it is imperative for the present powers to be renewed, and I ask the House to agree to that being done.
  Mr. Andrew F. Bennett: The Minister has not indicated any real hope that within the next four weeks there will be a clear settlement of the dispute. What proposals does he have for bringing the order back to the House in a month's time, bearing in mind that it will run out during the Christmas Recess? If we did not debate it before the recess, we would be debating it almost at the end of its period of operation. Will the order be brought back to the House before the Christmas Recess?
  Mr. Brittan: If necessary, it will be brought back. As I said, I very much hope that the current negotiations will enable the dispute to be settled on terms which look to the future rather than the past, but we consider it imperative for the present powers to be renewed. Therefore, for the reasons I have given, I ask the House to agree to that being done.
  10.34 pm
  Mr. Merlyn Rees: The alteration made in the original Bill, requiring the Government to seek an extension from this House, was a wise one because of the speed with which the original legislation went through the House, and in any event because the tenor of the Bill severely weakened the rule of law. For those reasons, the House is considering the matter at monthly intervals.
  My hon. Friend the Member for Stockport, North (Mr. Bennett) has just received from the Minister a proper reply to his question, but there is one additional matter that I should like to raise. It relates to the fact that the Christmas Recess will come probably before the month is up, and that the Minister has assured us that we shall be dealing with the matter in the House if the dispute is still going on.
  The Minister was light on figures tonight, and perhaps we understand why, but if the Government come back to us in three weeks' time, we should like to have the statistics laid out in an appropriate form. If they cannot be printed because of the shortage of time, perhaps they can
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  be placed in the Library. The Minister mentioned the fall in the prison population. Next time we ought to be able to begin the evaluation of the reasons for that fall. What has happened in the dispute has given us all food for thought about what we could do about the size of the prison population.
  The Minister has told us what he can tell us about the state of play in the negotiations. There have been four formal meetings and there is to be another formal meeting shortly. There have also been a number of informal meetings. We hear about the new duty system. Apparently the new system, at the least—I put it no higher than that—might make it possible for some of the problems of the Prison Officers' Association to be dealt with. I do not want to deal with them now. But while the dispute continues, prisoners are not being allowed into gaol. Problems do not arise only because of the legislation; they would arise anyway. In addition to prisoners not being allowed into gaol, the regimes for the treatment of prisoners, whatever their crimes, are wrong, or barren, or whichever word one cares to use.
  Is the prison officers' dispute equally hard in all establishments? Is it the case that no prisoners are being admitted to any prison establishment other than the new ones that are called prison establishments? It is important to know the answer to that question. Is the dispute more difficult in some types of prisons than in others?
  The Minister has given us figures about Frankland and Rollestone, on Salisbury Plain. From what I have heard, the conditions in these camps appear to be better than the conditions in some of the prison cells. The last thing that I want is for the dispute to continue, but if there is any chance of its continuing I hope that other camps are being prepared.
  Mr. Andrew F. Bennett: From what I have heard, I would agree with my right hon. Friend that in some instances the conditions are better, but there appear to be some problems with people on remand in getting visits both from their relatives and from their solicitors.
  Mr. Rees: I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his intervention, but I want to talk mainly about the remand position, because I understand that the main powers being used by the Home Secretary are those affecting remand. I realise the difficulties when matters are in a fluid state, but the question of remand should be an important one for this House. What proportion of prisoners are able to be afforded the normal remand procedures?
  When we last debated the matter, several hon. Members raised the question of remand in the context of distance. We realise that if a prisoner is taken from, say, London to Bodmin, it is a long enough distance to make the problem of coming to court within seven days a difficult one. Even if, under the new arrangements, a lawyer appears in court within the seven-day period, it remains important that a person in Bodmin, for example, should be taken to court within a 14-day period. Has anything been done?
  My hon. Friend the Member for Stockport, North pointed out the problems of those on remand in the new camps, which are some distance from towns. The National Association of Probation Officers raised a number of issues. A particular group of people took my eye. The association referred to:
  "The person of no fixed abode, and the problem drinker or recidivist, who might be suitable for supportive accommodation

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  such as a bail hostel. Following a recent mention in the press about the under-use of some of these hostels, there is evidence that they are being used more fully, but difficulties still exist in making assessment and referral in a person's absence from court"
  The association then mentioned the problems of a disturbed woman in a London court. The problem involved a particular type of prisoner for whom, the association claims, difficult problems have arisen in the past month.
  The Minister gave us figures, 44,000 down to 41,200. Has more bail been given? There is a good reason for having the statistics next time. When I was Home Secretary some police forces, particularly the Metropolitan Police, argued about the adverse effect of bail. If more bail is being granted, is it being granted to certain types of prisoner? Have people been breaking their bail bonds? Has the problem become worse as a result of any increase in bail?
  We heard about the escape from police cells. Have there been many escapes from police cells? Are escapes from police cells occurring at a proportionately higher rate than escapes from Army camps? That is important, because it concerns the general public. Whatever problems the Government face we should consider that.
  What about cost? When we debated the money resolution, the position was not clear. What is the extra cost to local police authorities of police cells and police guards? In the London area, the precept comes from the GLC and the rest comes directly from the Exchequer. The procedure is not the same for the provincial forces. We should be interested to know the cost of the dispute in different parts of the country.
  Although the subject may have been dealt with, I am not sure who is paying for the Army camps and what the total cost is. Sections 3 and 4 temporarily end the power to commit a person to prison for failure to pay a sum of money. I should like to know the numbers involved. What are the implications? In the early hours of the morning, when we debated this measure, I praised these sections. I received a number of letters—not a lot—complaining about my attitude. They said that those who did not pay fines or maintenance deserved to go to gaol.
  There is growing concern about divorce and the 1973 Act. It is important to have figures. If they cannot be provided tonight, I shall understand.
  The Government face two disputes. One of those disputes involves the firemen. I should be out of order to discuss that, but the Government have got themselves in a mess, and they are wrong.
  If there is action by the prison officers, whatever we may feel about the justice of the claim by the Prison Officers' Association the Government must take steps in the public interest. It is our duty to look closely at the legislation and at the results of Government policy. I apportion no blame—indeed, I was involved at the time of the May report—but if there is to be agreement on this matter after formal and informal meetings I hope that it will be reached soon.
  In view of the conditions in the police cells, the problems of remand, the Army camps in Durham and on Salisbury Plain, and the regimes in the prisons, it is time that the dispute was ended. We read of the occasional escape, but we do not know half of the problems caused by the fact that offenders are not going to normal prisons.
  If we can step in in this way through necessity, surely, whether the dispute is settled or not, we can do something
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  about the numbers in gaol. There are now 41,200 people in our gaols. The figure should be brought down to about 30,000. There are too many people in gaol. If we can interfere to deal with the situation because of a strike, we can interfere to deal with it without a strike. We could surely establish a better regime, if that is the right word, for the prison officers, in view of the problems that they face and the problems that they have caused. The only way to deal with the matter in the long run is for a prison officer to be not a turnkey but a professional, working with other professionals. The prison officer cannot carry out that role when there are more than 41,000 prisoners in our prisons.
  It is sad to come to the problem in this way. However, we have asked questions tonight and we shall continue to press the Government on the size of the prison population.
  10.47 pm
  Mr. John Farr: I welcome what my hon. and learned Friend the Minister of State said tonight. However, I should like to back up the questions that have been put to him by the right hon. Member for Leeds, South (Mr. Rees), particularly on the cost of the exercise so far. The Minister did not say anything about the cost, but it would be of interest to know what the cost has been so far. It is not clear whether the cost of the military operation is included in any costs that have been incurred.
  Like hon. Members on both sides of the House, I welcome the reduction of about 3,000 in the prison population. However, I am sad that this reduction was caused by this set of circumstances.
  The newest top security prison—Gartree—is located in my constituency. I have felt for a long time that we should not have so many people crowding our prisons. But we have not been able to keep up to date with the prison building programme. I am glad that there has been an 8 per cent. or 9 per cent. reduction in the prison population in a month. I hope that the numbers do not soar again.
  Gartree is an all-male prison, and I have always had friendly relations with the prison officers there. They vote for me, anyway. Indeed, I shall be attending a Prison Officers' Association darts competition next week. On the occasions when I have met prison officers I have found them to be reasonable people, who carry out a difficult job involving the dregs of the underworld. Some of the prisoners at Gartree come from the dregs of life, and prison officers have to associate with them. One wonders how prison officers, as a body, remain so unsullied by those with whom they have to deal in the course of their duties.
  In my talks with prison officers it has struck me that they are not being particularly unreasonable in suggesting to the Home Office that the solution should lie in a form of independent arbitration. All hon. Members want this dispute to end. It has dragged on for four weeks. I do not believe that my right hon. Friend the Home Secretary is right in merely digging his heels in and expecting the dispute to go away.
  Another characteristic of prison officers is that they are very determined people. From talking to them as friends in my constituency, I know that they believe that they are right. They have experienced independent arbitration in the prison service before, and fairly recently. There is a precedent for it. Surely, whether or not there is a precedent, if the Government's case is safe and sound, and right and proper, the matter will be arbitrated in favour of the Government.

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  I urge the Government to think about the possibility of not continually saying "No" to arbitration, and to see whether an attitude that is a little more humane cannot be adopted by the Home Office towards prison officers. They do not have a militant record. They are not a militant group. They do probably the most unpleasant job in the country. I hope that my hon. and learned Friend will consider what I have said.
  Will my hon. and learned Friend say something about the conditions at Gartree prison in relation to the wing that was wrecked in the riot three years ago? That wing has been completely repaired and renovated, at vast expense to the taxpayer, but it has not been put into use for many months. Is it a matter of policy to keep at Gartree three prison officers for every two prisoners, which has been the establishment there ever since the riot? Is it intended to put massive reinvestment in repairing D wing into use by putting prisoners back into it, where they were before? If that is the case, is the implementation of this action being held up through the actions of the POA? In other words, can my hon. and learned Friend give an assurance that once this dispute is settled, in the public interest there will no longer be wasteful inactivity in this great public asset?
  Otherwise, I support the order.
  10.53 pm
  Mr. Stephen Ross: I very much welcome some of the remarks of the hon. Member for Harborough (Mr. Farr). Like him, I feel that this matter should have gone to arbitration long ago. I know the reasons that the Government have put forward, but I hope that there will be a Division against the order, when I shall vote against it. I happen to think that the Home Office is still not moving anything like fast enough.
  The other morning I heard the chairman of the Prison Officers' Association, Mr. Steel, saying that relations with the Home Office had never been worse. I wonder, therefore, whether it is true to say that if the new duty rota is agreed—one hopes that the rota will be expedited—it will bring the dispute to an end.
  The Minister has given no figures about the number of prison officers who have already been put on report. What will happen to them? At Camp Hill prison some were being put on report a month ago for failing to carry out orders. The whole system is being fouled up.
  As I rightly said a month ago, in the Isle of Wight there are three prisons, and the dispute does not concern officers there but they have come out in sympathy with their colleagues. The same thing has now happened in Northern Ireland. It must be an absolute disaster for this to happen in Northern Ireland.
  I have the greatest respect for prison officers in Northern Ireland, particularly those in the Maze. They are very brave. They are in a traumatic situation. There is loyalty in the service, so they are out in sympathy. The dispute cannot be allowed to continue. We need much more effort to bring it to a conclusion. That may mean arbitration. The POA has said that if it loses it will accept the decision. It would be one way to get over a dispute which has cost a great deal of money and will cost a great deal more.
  We have all received the report containing the view of probation officers. They are concerned about the effects of the dispute and they instance a number of cases where
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  problems have arisen. They point out that 16-year-olds have been shut in cells for up to 24 hours a day. In addition, other prisoners who come before the courts and are due for parole cannot get back into prison and, therefore, lose their parole. That cannot be satisfactory. We must not allow the dispute to drag on.
  If the Home Office got a move on, it could settle the dispute in 24 hours. Planning permission was given for a factory in my constituency in 24 hours. No one believes that it happened, but the factory was built in about three months. There must be a much greater effort to settle the dispute.
  Relationships between prison governors and officers have been spoilt. I cited the case of Albany prison during our previous debate. I had a letter today from the governor, who is about to leave. He has done a first-class job. Relations between the governor and his officers have been excellent. A few years ago, Albany probably had the worst problems of any prison in the country. Things have improved, but a new governor will have to take over while the dispute is upsetting relationships between management and men. It should have been settled, and I hope that we shall not have to consider another renewal of the Act.
  10.57 pm
  Mr. John Wells: We are having an inevitable second bite at dealing with the symptom. We are not dealing with the fundamental illness.
  The previous Government and my right hon. Friend the Home Secretary have moved in the right direction in seeking to give the prison service greater autonomy under the director-general, but a fundamental error, which affected the happiness of the prison service, was made when the Prison Commission was abolished. Until there is greater autonomy for the service, under the director-general, we shall have continuing trouble.
  My hon. Friend the Member for Harborough (Mr. Farr) said that he would have a lovely time at the POA dance but that all the prison officers in his constituency are male. I am more fortunate. As well as Maidstone prison, I have a beautiful borstal for girls in my constituency, so I have a broader selection of people to advise me.
  I am convinced that until we get a happier prison service, in all its ramifications, we shall have continuing trouble. Of course, I support the order and the Act, but the lessons learnt from the dispute must be taken to heart and we must deal with the illness and not with the symptoms.
  10.59 pm
  Mr. Clive Soley: I hoped that the Minister would tell us that he did not intend to renew the Act. He ought to ask himself whether, if he had listened to the part of our previous debate in which we emphasised the parts of the May report that suggested arbitration, he would need to ask for a renewal and tell us that the Act will have to be renewed again before the Christmas Recess, which is what he implied.
  Mr. Brittan: No.
  Mr. Soley: There is good reason to suppose that that will happen. If we had gone for arbitration, we would not have needed the emergency powers and it would have cost us far less in the long run. It would also have cost far less in terms of human misery and suffering and, in some cases, possible death.
  I have received at least one query regarding a prisoner who was supposed to have been locked up in his cell for

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  22 hours a day and committed suicide. The Minister knows that people are under pressure. I am sure that I shall receive a response to the query in due course. The nature of the problem is far too serious to be regarded as a matter to be faced out with the POA simply because there could not be arbitration. Arbitration was possible. The Minister might have won his case without any of the draconian powers that have been taken.
  I should like to refer to the problem of bail and the conditions in which some people are being held. I accept the Minister's assurance about young people. It is, however, known that 17, 18, 19 and 20-year-olds are being held in police cells for long periods along with people who have multiple social and psychological problems beyond their experience. The effect is bound to be traumatic. Is it claimed that because there are no 16-years-olds in this position we are doing well? I would not have thought so. It is shameful, in my view, that anyone under the age of 21 should be held in those conditions.
  What about the adolescent who is psychologically disturbed? What checks are made on teenagers with a history of disturbance held in these conditions? There are none. What about psychiatric and probation reports that are normally requested? Are they being prepared? Is there good, solid evidence to show that probation and psychiatric reports are being prepared where needed?
  The single, vagrant person, who is least able to speak for himself, can easily go to the bottom of the pool. Why are many bail beds in bail hostels empty? There can be only one reason. The effort normally made in a court to fill these beds cannot be made owing to the circumstances. These are questions on which we need answers soon.
  I cannot hold back from recalling how, during the 1979 election campaign, the present Government, and particularly the Home Secretary, laid stress on law and order. They were going to get tough with criminals. They got tough all right. They got tough with habeas corpus. The prison population is going down. I am not opposed to that. The prison population is far too high and conditions in the prisons are far too bad. We shall not get good prisons until the number of prisoners is brought down. What we have seen is the Home Secretary waltzing through the penal system, unlocking the doors and throwing away the keys. This is the man who was going to get tough.
  In my constituency, the Conservative candidate made great play of the fact that his party would get tough and lock people up. The Government are doing the exact opposite. Fortuitously, a degree of penal reform has been achieved because the Home Office chose to have a fight with the POA. I cannot escape the conclusion that the fight is about who runs the prisons. I want the Home Office, not the POA, to run the prisons. The issue is now different. Over the past two years, the prison officers have learnt a lot from their own experience. I do not believe that this industrial action was wanted by the officers one iota. They would have been only too willing to accept arbitration.
  Let us consider the negotiations. I understand that at its delegate conference on 16 and 17 December the POA will consider suspending the action, but it will consider doing so only if it receives clear guidance from the Home Office on what it is being offered. Having talked to members of the POA at some length about the matter, I know that it is no good asking them to go to a special delegate
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  conference with general terms about what can come from a new duty rota system. They will need much clearer guidance than that on what they are being offered.
  The association intends to put what the Government offer it to the whole of its membership. That is exactly what this Government have been asking of the trade union movement. Therefore, the Minister had better get it right. If he does not, he will get a resounding "No" from the association, and then the Government will be hoist on their own petard, because a resounding "No" will be the result unless the offer makes sense to the officers concerned.
  It would be infinitely better if in the first instance the Minister had accepted the idea of reintroducing the May committee, or a small sub-committee of it, for a short period to arbitrate on the lines of the paragraph in the committee's report that I cited when I spoke a month ago.
  Whatever happens, will the Minister give a more positive response than he has done so far to the idea of setting up permanent arbitration machinery, so that we never find ourselves in this position again? I strongly resent Governments of any colour returning to the House increasingly often in this century to renew emergency powers that go on month after month and in some cases for many years. That is slowly whittling away at our democracy. I find it offensive, and above all in this instance I find it totally unnecessary.
  11.7 pm
  Mr. Douglas Hogg: As always, I listened with considerable care to the hon. Member for Hammersmith, North (Mr. Soley), but it seemed that tonight he made two very unfair criticisms of my right hon. Friend the Home Secretary. He began by saying that my right hon. Friend had unlocked the doors and thrown away the keys of the prisons. That seems to indicate that the hon. Gentleman did not listen to what my hon. and learned Friend the Minister of State told the House. The only powers that give anything like that ability to my right hon. Friend are those contained in sections 3,4 and 5 of the Act. As my hon. and learned Friend made perfectly plain, no orders have been made under those sections. Therefore, that criticism not merely is unfair but displays deafness or ignorance.
  Mr. Soley: I think that the hon. Gentleman misheard me. What I said was that, in effect, the Home Secretary had waltzed through the penal system unlocking the doors. The fact is that the number of people in custody has dropped. That is what I am saying. If my language is colourful, that is fine; that is what it means.
  Mr. Hogg: The hon. Gentleman has opened up another possibility—not that he is deaf or ignorant but that he did not know what he was saying. I have accurately recounted exactly what he said, and he cannot get round it.
  The hon. Gentleman illustrates the weakness of his argument by making the latter point. He has stressed how the number of those in custody has fallen, and he is right. But it is entirely inconsistent then to argue that my right hon. Friend the Home Secretary has at the same time destroyed habeas corpus. The hon. Gentleman cannot reconcile the two.
  In fact, maybe as an unexpected result of this legislation, the number of those granted bail has increased

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  significantly. Therefore, the hon. Gentleman's criticism of my right hon. Friend is entirely devoid of merit and shows surprising ignorance from somebody of his background.
  However, I share some of the hon. Gentleman's anxiety. Like other hon. Members, I am concerned about section 2. I have a number of questions concerning its operation. I imagine that since the passage of the Act the vast majority of prisoners remanded in custody will have been held in custody for about four weeks without their having been brought back before the courts. How many instances have there been, therefore, of courts making orders under the two provisions of the section which enable a court to require an offender to be brought back before the expiration of the remand period? These are detailed questions, but they are important because they go to human liberty. If my hon. and learned Friend cannot give an oral answer I shall be content with a written reply, although I should hope for the former.
  Mr. Keith Best: It is my experience within the past few weeks in the courts that in some cases prisoners have been brought back before the courts where it was thought likely that they would be granted bail, even though they had already been remanded in custody. Will my hon. Friend ask my hon. and learned Friend to clarify upon whose fiat that is done? Who decides who will be granted bail and, therefore, determines whether prisoners will be brought back before the courts?
  Mr. Hogg: My hon. Friend has put the point so eloquently that my hon. and learned Friend will no doubt deal with it when he replies.
  Another matter I wish to explore concerns offenders who are held in designated places under section 1 or in police cells. Is my hon. and learned Friend satisfied with the arrangements for those prisoners having access to friends and relatives but more particularly to their legal advisers? It is most important that offenders in custody should have early access to their legal advisers. My suspicion is that there is no privacy in police cells. Is my hon. and learned Friend content with the arrangements made in police cells to enable offenders to see their legal advisers in privacy so that confidential information can be exchanged?
  Mr. Andrew F. Bennett: Some solicitors seem to feel that they are being asked to appear in court almost by proxy for their clients without having had the opportunity to see them. They are therefore unable to satisfy the court that they have seen their clients and that they know that their clients are in good health.
  Mr. Hogg: That is a valuable point, but that has always happened. If it is happening now, as I suspect, it is a result not of the Act but of practice and procedure in magistrates' courts over many years.
  I seek the Minister's confirmation that he is satisfied that in the majority of police cells or police stations offenders have facilities to discuss confidential matters with their advisers.
  11.14 pm
  Mr. Robert Kilroy-Silk: A great many questions have been put to the Minister, but one fundamental one has not been. When will the dispute be settled, and why has it not been settled before? The
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  Government have a nerve coming back to the House after pushing the Act through Parliament, disrupting the parliamentary timetable by their refusal to deal with the prison officers' claim, and having been given by Parliament a month in which they could have reached an honourable and negotiated settlement.
  They have indicated once again their obstinacy and recalcitrance in dealing with what the hon. Member for Harborough (Mr. Fair) described as a decent, law-abiding, hard working group who feel that they have a legitimate and justifiable grievance, to whom the Government refuse to listen and with whom they are still less prepared to negotiate.
  It is inconceivable that a Tory Government, elected on a law-and-order platform, should ride roughshod over the judiciary as they did when enacting the legislation, and that they should have failed so completely to deal with the industrial relations problems in our prison. As a result, they have caused enormous disruption in the prisons, the courts, and the police cells, and to the parliamentary timetable. Yet they must still come and beg the House to give them more time. They would not have needed the time if they had been prepared to negotiate an honourable settlement with the prison officers.
  The Minister should have given a detailed summary of the negotiations being conducted by the Home Secretary on behalf of the Government. After all, the Government are responsible to the House. We have a right to know what is on the table and being offered to the prison officers. We have a right to know the current sticking points. We should not have to rely upon our own informal, unofficial contacts. The current position should be clearly and openly on the record, so that hon. Members can take a clear view on the merits of the case and the negotiating positions.
  Mr. David Mellor: I am sorry that the hon. Gentleman is slightly spoiling his reputation as a bipartisan expert on the subject by making cheap, partisan points about the dispute. Is he really suggesting that the trouble with the prison officers has developed only since the present Government came to power? If he is, he speaks nonsense. Is he aware that the prison officers have taken issue with the report by the commission that the right hon. Member for Leeds, South (Mr. Rees) rightly set up? The issue should worry hon. Members on both sides. The hon. Gentleman is making cheap party points.
  Mr. Kilroy-Silk: My right hon. Friend the Member for Leeds, South (Mr. Rees) believes that I am attacking him as much as the present Home Secretary. That is not the point. If he was wrong and the Home Secretary is wrong, they are, or were, wrong. The Government are wrong. Irrespective of the merits of the case, the prison officers believe genuinely and sincerely that right is on their side. The Home Secretary believes otherwise. He has said that all the merits are on his side. If that is so, why is he not as confident in the justice of his case as are the prison officers? Why does he not put it to independent, objective arbitration?
  Eventually we must settle the dispute. Because of the resentment and frustration engendered by the dispute, the relationships between prison officers and the Home Office will cause enormous problems for the Home Secretary and the prison department when they try to build up morale and, more important, try to persuade the prison officers to

  677
  agree to the important reforms that we all want. We shall not achieve the co-operation necessary to push through the reforms in the atmosphere of bitterness and resentment that the Government have unnecessarily created and sustained by their blind, obstinate refusal to treat the prison officers as members of a respectable, organised trade union.
  That is part of the problem. Neither side seems to know whether the prison officers should be a disciplined, organised force, subject to rules, regulations, commands and discipline, with uniforms, marches and para-military style ethos and atmosphere. They do not know whether the prison officers should behave, as they are, as a work group subject to the normal constraints and procedures of industrial relations, with a disputes procedure and an arbitration and conciliation framework.
  If the Prison Officers' Association cannot sort the problem out, the Home Secretary must sort out whether he expects the prison officers to act like any other work force, which wants to bargain collectively and have proper disputes procedures and collective agreements, or whether they are that so-called disciplined and respectable force which they may have once been but clearly by their actions in this dispute and others in previous years have shown that they are no longer.
  The Home Secretary's refusal even to attempt to negotiate an honourable settlement will not only affect prison officers but will have serious consequences for the 3,500 people who are today in police cells, denied their basic human rights and, as Conservative Members have reminded us tonight and in previous debates, denied the most fundamental right—to appear in court at regular intervals when on remand.
  Mr. Douglas Hogg: Whose fault is that?
  Mr. Kilroy-Silk: It is the Home Secretary's fault. He bears the responsibility. That is why his junior Minister is here tonight asking the House for a renewal of the powers. The Home Secretary is formally and constitutionally responsible. He can settle the dispute not on the prison officers' terms—
  Mr. Brittan: I suggest that the hon. Gentleman—
  Mr. Kilroy-Silk: I do not need the hon. and learned Gentleman to tell me about parliamentary procedure. If he wishes to intervene, he should come to the Dispatch Box. It is within the Home Secretary's power tonight to settle this dispute not on the terms asked for by the prison officers but simply by saying that he accepts the rationale of deciding by independent arbitration the issues in dispute between the parties. He has the responsibility.
  Mr. Paul Hawkins: I had been hoping to make a brief speech, but the hon. Gentleman will clearly speak for the time remaining.
  Surely the May report was arbitration. The matter was settled only a few months ago. Why should we have arbitration over arbitration?
  Mr. Kilroy-Silk: Because we live in the real world. We do not live by words like "arbitration" and see them as shibboleths. Conservative Members must realise that. The Prison Officers' Association is sincere and profound in its belief that the May committee was not arbitration. On a number of the claims put by the prison officers, the May committee pointed out specifically that it did not see itself as an arbitrator and was not prepared to arbitrate on those issues. The prison officers do not believe that the
  678
  May committee arbitrated. We have to deal with their grievances, resentments and industrial action. The only response by the Home Secretary and the Government to every group of industrial workers, including the firemen, is to pick a fight and confront them. They use their parliamentary majority and ability to get through the House Bills and orders renewing them. Those orders deny basic human rights.
  Had the Labour Party been in government, Conservative Members would have been vociferous and indignant in opposing such policies. However, they all ask polite, courteous questions of the Minister. They are not interested in the answers. They merely want to get on the record their concern, but they will not take that concern far enough to vote against the Government tonight.
  As a consequence of the Government's action, many thousands of people are subjected to degrading and inhuman conditions in police cells. The police are doing a magnificent and tremendous job in extremely difficult circumstances. However, many people in prisons and police cells are being denied basic human rights. In addition, the consequences for industrial relations in the future are horrendous and enormous.
  The Home Secretary could have made one significant and important contribution while the dispute continues. It is within his power—and it is within the terms of the Act—to stop the imprisonment of fine and maintenance defaulters and, indeeed, to order the early release of prisoners within prisons. If the right hon. Gentleman found it expedient or appropriate to put that power into the Act, why does he now not use it? If it is not going to threaten the basis of our society or pose a threat to our fellow citizens by the release of fine and maintenance defaulters, or at least their non-imprisonment, and will enable the early release of other prisoners who are not dangerous, why does not the right hon. Gentleman at least take this opportunity to make a constructive and positive contribution to penal reform by insisting that that proposal is implemented?
  I ask my hon. Friends and Conservative Members who may actually believe in what they are saying to join me in the Lobby to vote against this measure. We do not expect to win. We know the sheep-like complacency of those on the Government Benches. The Division will demonstrate that this House is prepared to censure a Government who ride roughshod over the prison service, the judiciary and prisoners's rights.
  Mr. Best: Will the hon. Gentleman give way?
  Mr. Kilroy-Silk: By that means the House will censure the Government for their inability and unwillingness at least to listen if not hear—
  Mr. Best Mr. Best rose—
  Mr. Kilroy-Silk: —the grievances of the prison officers.
  11.27 pm
  Mr. Paul Hawkins: Much of what we have heard appears to have been a defence of wrongdoers and not a defence of those who have been offended against. We spend our time talking about the human rights of prisoners but never think about the human rights of those who have been attacked in the streets by those who are currently in prison. We seem never to think of the victims of oppression and attacks. The thesis of

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  some Labour Members seems to be that we should defend those who are in prison. Those persons need not have been in prison if they did not want to be.
  My hon. and learned Friend the Minister is right to introduce this measure. I should have preferred the powers to run for six months from the date of enactment instead of his having to return to the House after one month, but perhaps that was not possible.
  My hon. Friend the Member for Maidstone (Mr. Wells) spoke of basic causes. One of the basic causes of the prison officers' dissatisfaction with their conditions is the immense overcrowding in gaols and the impossibility of any Government providing the immense funds that are necessary to provide new gaols.
  I have suggested to the Home Office that it should introduce Army-type prisons. I understand that it has opened one such prison. It should have far more of these gaols. I spent five years in those types of gaol with barbed wire around the outside. It is a type of gaol that has many advantages. I am not suggesting that they should be occupied by those who have committed serious offences of violence, for example. They have considerable advantages for gaolers. They are freed from having to open and shut gaol doors and from having to give the prisoners exercise. The prisoners can have far more exercise and far more of a human life within a large area where they can play games and have ordinary amusements as well as haying the opportunity to mix. I understand that one such camp has been set up on Salisbury Plain.
  Such camps would reduce the number of prisoners who are accommodated two or three to a cell. That must reduce the strain on prison warders. I wish to hear my hon. and learned Friend's reasons for arguing that we should not adopt this form of prison on a much wider scale. It is said that those in our prisons are not like those who were prisoners of war. I have received a letter in which it is stated that there is a great deal of camaraderie between prisoners of war but not between prisoners in the sort of prison that I have described. If they attacked each other, and if they had been convicted, would we really worry? Quite frankly, I would not. I think far more of the victims outside, and I want to keep the offenders inside. I would not mind if there were armed guards outside such camps. That is the way in which we must look at this issue. Personally, I believe that we are too namby-pamby about the way in which we treat our prisoners.
  Mr. Soley: I am touched by the hon. Gentleman's sudden interest in the victim. Perhaps he will lend his support to the victim support scheme, which many Labour Members have supported for ages. I have never known him to give it any support, still less put his money where his mouth is. Nor have I known him or the Government give such victims financial support.
  Mr. Hawkins: The hon. Gentleman spoke so rapidly that I did not quite get his point. Would he like to repeat it?
  Mr. Soley Mr. Soley indicated dissent.
  Mr. Hawkins: Perhaps he will write and tell me what it was. I do not know whether I am supposed to put my money in my mouth or somewhere else, but that was the only part of the hon. Gentleman's intervention that I heard.
  680
  If any hon. Member consults his constituents—and this is where I have a criticism of the Government—I believe he will find that the majority feel that we have not done what we said we would do — namely, have real enforcement of law and order.
  The first thing that we must do is get the police back on to the streets. They should be walking around the market places and the streets on Friday and Saturday evenings. What is the good of policemen in panda cars? They do not get to know the people who can give the police information. They do not get to know the wrongdoers. I believe that we ought to have far more police on the streets.
  Even in the small market town in my constituency, there is never a policeman around on a Saturday night. One used to be able to walk along a pavement without being pushed off by half a dozen people who are liable to threaten any woman who walks by.
  Mr. Deputy Speaker (Mr. Richard Crawshaw): Order. The hon. Gentleman is going a little wide of the subject of this debate.
  Mr. Hawkins: Thank you, Mr. Deputy Speaker. I am sorry if I have strayed beyond it, but law and order have been mentioned. However, it is perhaps too wide of the subject that we are discussing, and I thank you for your gentle reminder.
  I feel strongly that we should make real endeavours to change our whole prison system. We should not put minor offenders into prison, thereby relieving a large number of people who would otherwise go to prison. We should consider putting a large number of non-violent offenders into large, open, barbed-wire, Army-style camps.
  Mr. Soley: They would get out.
  Mr. Hawkins: I do not think so. We could try the Isle of Wight, which would be a good area for some of these camps.
  I honestly believe that that is a way in which to solve a lot of our problems. It would reduce the concern that prison warders rightly feel about the strain of their work. I particularly commend the work that they do in Northern Ireland, where the strain must be immense. The fact that they realise that they are marked men and are liable to be shot at each time they walk to and from their jobs is something that should be highly commended. I am sorry if they contemplate strike action, because I am sure they realise just how serious the situation in Northern Ireland is.
  I hope that my hon. and learned Friend will give a full reply to the matter that I have raised. In fact, I wrote to his hon. Friend about it and received a reply, although I did not think that it was a sensible one. However, I believe that such prisoners would have far more freedom within a camp such as I have described.
  Mr. Tristan Garel-Jones: Does my hon. Friend agree that many of the prison officers who are taking part in this action are unhappy about it?
  Mr. Hawkins: A number of prison officers live in my area. Perhaps fortunately, or unfortunately, I do not have a prison in my area. A number of these officers have come to me and said—
  Mr. Stephen Ross: It can be arranged for the hon. Member to have a prison in his area.
  Mr. Hawkins: The Isle of Wight and I will share one.
  I believe that many of the prison officers do not like the type of dispute in which they have become involved under their present leadership or the situation in which they find themselves. They have always been a disciplined force, and that is what they should be. I do not believe that they can be a normal trade union organisation. I consider that they have to be given extra money for being a disciplined force and not going on strike. Nevertheless, I cannot see that fresh arbitration, on top of the May report—which any normal person reading it would consider was arbitration—would be helpful. I sincerely hope that my hon. and learned Friend will be able to convince the prison officers that they can do without a prison strike and that they will not want arbitration, and so I hope — [Interruption.] Does my hon. Friend the Member for Buxton (Mr. Lawrence) want to intervene?
  Mr. Ivan Lawrence: No.
  Mr. Hawkins: He is now apparently tongue-tied.
  Many of the prison officers do not want to enter into this type of strike action. They know their responsibilities. They know that people outside depend upon them for their safety and for the safety of their women, children and homes. They know that if they let people out, damage will be done.
  Mr. John Wells: I was glad to hear my hon. Friend pay tribute to the work, and the quality of work, of the prison officers, and in particular their anxieties for families, and so on. Another person involved with the prison service to whom I hope my hon. Friend will pay tribute is Lord Belstead, who has brought to his dealings with my unhappy constituents in prison and prison officers in my constituency much more hope than there was under the previous noble Lord representing the Labour Government. I feel that Lord Belstead is doing a good job in getting the prison service on to a better footing.
  Mr. Hawkins: I am glad to be able to support that, but—
  Mr. Deputy Speaker: Order. Before the hon. Gentleman continues, may I say that it might have been the wish of the House to give the Minister leave to speak again to reply to the debate? There is only seven minutes left for this debate.
  Mr. Hawkins: I shall be glad to give way to my hon. and learned Friend. I am sorry to hear that my hon. Friend the Member for Maidstone probably has more of his constituents in gaol than he has gaolers. I agree that Lord Belstead is a good Minister, and he has undoubtedly made a great impression on the prison service.
  11.39 pm
  Mr. Brittan: During the debate a number of points of detail have been raised, which I should like to answer. Also, some rather sweeping general things have fallen from the lips of the hon. Member for Ormskirk (Mr. Kilroy-Silk). For example, he described the treatment of prisoners in police cells as deprivation of basic human rights. That language was characteristically extravagant and equally characteristically unjustified. All the people concerned are in lawful custody, and every effort is being made to give them the maximum possible rights to which they are entitled under the law. That suggestion is wholly without foundation and was included in the hon.
  682
  Gentleman's speech only in order to eke out the rather thin content that otherwise symbolised it. However, a number of serious points were raised during the debate.
  My hon. Friend the Member for Grantham (Mr. Hogg), I am sure unwittingly, bowled me out first ball, because I gave an incorrect answer that I now wish to correct. Frankland and Rollestone camps contain sentenced prisoners, not remand prisoners.
  The question of arbitration was raised by a number of hon. Members. I do not propose to go over that ground in detail because the argument has not changed since it was dealt with by my right hon. Friend the Home Secretary when we were debating the Bill. The subject matter of the dispute was put to the May committee at the time that it was deliberating, and my hon. Friend the Member for Norfolk, South-West (Mr. Hawkins) is right in saying that those who seek arbitration are inviting two bites at the same cherry.
  Mr. Stephen Ross: Will the Minister give way?
  Mr. Brittan: No, I am sorry, I shall not give way. There is no time. I wish to answer some of the other points.
  It has been suggested that there has not been serious negotiation. That suggestion is unfounded. In my opening remarks I gave details of the extent of the negotiations that have taken place, and I also indicated that the progress that has been made is encouraging. Therefore, there is no truth in the suggestion to the contrary that fell from the lips of the hon. Member for Ormskirk and the hon. Member for Hammersmith, North (Mr. Soley).
  The right hon. Member for Leeds, South (Mr. Rees) asked about the remand provisions. The courts appear to be making directions for the appearance in court of prisoners whenever solicitors or legal advisers appearing for the prisoners make such a request. The courts have shown a readiness to ensure that whenever the person acting for the prisoner thinks that it is in his interest to appear personally in court, that request is granted. I am not saying that there has never been an exception to that, but our inquiries indicate that that is the position.
  I was also asked about medical and psychiatric reports. On first admission to police cells, all prisoners are examined in the same way as they are examined on reception at prison.
  My hon. Friend the Member for Grantham also asked about the opportunity to meet legal advisers in police cells. Again, the police have been asked and have agreed to ensure that provision for such meeting is made to the best extent possible. He asked me whether I was satisfied as to the conditions in every case. It is impossible to be totally satisfied, because the circumstances in the police cells inevitably vary from place to place. I am satisfied that every endeavour has been made to secure the situation that both he and I want, and that has been overwhelmingly successful.
  Reference was also made to the documents sent from the National Association of Probation Officers with regard to the alleged under-use of bail hostels. There are spare places in bail hostels, but that is not a new factor and I do not believe that section 2 of the Act that we are discussing can legitimately be blamed, because the situation has not been affected in that sort of way.
  With regard to visits in police cells, the facilities available in police accommodation are limited as to visits but the police are doing what they can to ensure that visits can take place in satisfactory circumstances.

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  My hon. Friend the Member for Harborough (Mr. Farr) asked specifically about Gartree. I understand that the principal difficulty in opening the renovated accommodation has been the need to provide alternative access to the wing in question, There are plans for such provision and there is every intention to make full use of all the accommodation at Gartree as soon as possible.
  Those were the principal points that were raised during the course of the debate, and I hope that—
  Mr. Andrew F. Bennett Mr. Andrew F. Bennett rose—
  Mr. Brittan: I shall not be able to give way, because time on the point is running out. I hope that the House will accept that the powers that have not been used are a significant indication of the fact that the powers that have been used have been used carefully, reticently, and with success.
  It being one and a half hours after the commencement of proceedings on the motion, MR. DEPUTY SPEAKER put the Question, pursuant to Standing Order No. 3 (Exempted business).
  The House divided: Ayes 91, Noes 25.

  Division No. 3]

  [11.45 pm

  AYES

  Alexander, Richard

  MacKay, John (Argyll)

  Ancram, Michael

  Major, John

  Baker, Nicholas (N Dorset)

  Marlow, Tony

  Banks, Robert

  Mather, Carol

  Beaumont-Dark, Anthony

  Maxwell-Hyslop, Robin

  Bendall, Vivian

  Mellor, David

  Berry, Hon Anthony

  Miller, Hal (B'grove)

  Best, Keith

  Mills, Iain (Meriden)

  Blackburn, John

  Morris, M. (N'hampton S)

  Blaker, Peter

  Morrison, Hon P. (Chester)

  Boscawen, Hon Robert

  Murphy, Christopher

  Bright, Graham

  Neale, Gerrard

  Brinton, Tim

  Neubert, Michael

  Brittan, Leon

  Normanton, Tom

  Brooke, Hon Peter

  Page, Rt Hon Sir G. (Crosby)

  Brotherton, Michael

  Page, Richard (SW Herts)

  Brown, M. (Brigg and Scun)

  Parris, Matthew

  Carlisle, Kenneth (Lincoln)

  Patten, Christopher (Bath)

  Chapman, Sydney

  Pollock, Alexander

  Colvin, Michael

  Proctor, K. Harvey

  Cope, John

  Rhodes James, Robert

  Dorrell, Stephen

  Shepherd, Colin (Hereford)

  Dover, Denshore

  Silvester, Fred

  Dunn, Robert (Dartford)

  Speed, Keith

  Faith, Mrs Sheila

  Stevens, Martin

  Farr, John

  Stradling Thomas, J.

  Fenner, Mrs Peggy

  Tebbit, Norman

  Fletcher-Cooke, Charles

  Thompson, Donald

  Garel-Jones, Tristan

  Thorne, Neil (Ilford South)

  Gow, Ian

  Viggers, Peter

  Griffiths, Peter Portsm'th N)

  Waddington, David

  Hawkins, Paul

  Wakeham, John

  Hawksley, Warren

  Waller, Gary

  Hogg, Hon Douglas (Gr'th'm)

  Ward, John

  Hunt, David (Wirral)

  Watson, John

  Hunt, John (Ravensbourne)

  Wells, John (Maidstone)

  Hurd, Hon Douglas

  Wells, Bowen

  Jopling, Rt Hon Michael

  Wheeler, John

  Kershaw, Anthony

  Whitney, Raymond

  Kitson, Sir Timothy

  Wickenden, Keith

  Lawrence, Ivan

  Wilkinson, John

  Le Marchant, Spencer

  Winterton, Nicholas

  Lester Jim (Beeston)

  Wotfson, Mark

  Lloyd, Peter (Fareham)

  Loveridge, John

  Tellers for the Ayes;

  Lyell, Nicholas

  Mr. Tony Newton and

  Macfarlane, Neil

  Lord James Douglas Hamilton.

  MacGregor, John

  684

  NOES

  Alton, David

  McNamara, Kevin

  Bagier, Gordon A.T.

  Parry, Robert

  Beith, A. J.

  Powell, Raymond (Ogmore)

  Campbell-Savours, Dale

  Price, C. (Lewisham W)

  Cryer, Bob

  Roberts, Allan (Bootle)

  Dixon, Donald

  Ross, Stephen (Isle of Wight)

  Dubs, Alfred

  Sheerman, Barry

  Grant, George (Morpeth)

  Stott, Roger

  Haynes, Frank

  Tilley, John

  Home Robertson, John

  Welsh, Michael

  Johnston, Russell (Inverness)

  Young, David (Botton E)

  Kilroy-Silk, Robert

  Tellers for the Noes:

  Litherland, Robert

  Mr. Andrew F. Bennett and

  Lyon, Alexander (York)

  Mr. Clive Soley.

  Question accordingly agreed to.
  Resolved,
  That the draft Imprisonment (Temporary Provisions) Act 1980 (Continuance) Order 1980, which was laid before this House on 20 November, be approved.

  Bolton (Assisted Area Status)
  Motion made, and Question proposed, That this House do now adjourn.—[Mr. Berry.]
  11.56 pm
  Mrs. Ann Taylor: I wish to raise a subject that is extremely important to my constituency and to everyone in the Bolton area—that is why some of my colleagues are present — namely, the withdrawal of assisted area status from the area. Bolton has already lost the right to regional grants and it is to lose all the help that has been available since 1972, when it was given intermediate area status.
  The decision to withdraw intermediate area status from Bolton was taken shortly after the Government came to office. Many of us thought that the decision was hasty and short-sighted. When we said at the time that the Government had not thought out the consequences of what they were doing and had taken a hasty decision that would have a detrimental effect on Bolton, none of us believed that the employment position and industrial base in Bolton would deteriorate so rapidly and cause such a great deal of alarm and concern in the whole area.
  I remind the Minister that a Conservative Government first granted intermediate area status to Bolton in 1972. In the middle of 1972 there were exactly 4,952, or 4.7 per cent. of the working population of Bolton, unemployed. The Tory Government at that time rightly thought that, because of the decline of the textile industry and other factors, Bolton had enough unemployment problems to warrant giving it intermediate area status.
  What do the Government think has happened since then to justify withdrawal of intermediate area status from Bolton? Do they think that Bolton has no unemployment problem? Do they think that Bolton has a healthy industrial base? Anyone who knows the town and what is happening will realise that Bolton has serious problems.
  As I have said, unemployment in the middle of 1972 when we got development area status was 4·7 per cent. When the Government decided to withdraw our intermediate area status in the middle of last year, unemployment was 6,521, or 5·9 per cent. The Government decided to give us intermediate area status when unemployment was 4·7 per cent., but when unemployment had climbed to 5·9 per cent. they decided that it should be withdrawn.

  685
  That was a year ago. What has happened since then? The latest figures show that unemployment in Bolton is 11,433. That is 10·3 per cent. That is not counting more than 1,000 young people who are at present in artificial jobs created by the youth opportunities programme. So that is an increase from 5·9 per cent. to 10·3 per cent. between the announcement of the withdrawal of intermediate area status and the present time. I would not like to hazard a guess about what the unemployment figures will be in another 18 months' time if the Government continue with their present patterns.
  Even tonight in Bolton there was another announcement of massive redundancies, in that 519 jobs are to go at Edbros in Bolton. That is typical of the announcements that we are getting week after week, which are causing so much concern in Bolton, because as well as a great deal of unemployment we have a great deal of short-time working, which is not giving any kind of confidence to people in the town.
  The fact of the matter is that in recent years Bolton's unemployment level has been fairly close to the national average, but in recent months unemployment in Bolton has become very much more severe than the national average and our unemployment rate is accelerating far faster than the national rate.
  Therefore, although the Minister may say this evening that his Department does not want to spread the funds available too thinly, I warn him that if areas such as Bolton are to get no assistance whatever and have the assistance that we have had removed, he will put us in the situation of requiring more help later on. Bolton does not want to become a special development area. What we want is a little more help at present so that we do not come to suffer the problems of the areas which have special development area status. I ask the Minister to accept that there has been a very dramatic decline in Bolton's industrial base over the last year or so.
  Mr. Roger Stott: Both my hon. Friend and I have the honour to represent part of the metropolitan borough of Bolton. I should like to supplement what she is saying by citing a very pertinent example. Since the withdrawal of intermediate area status from Bolton, a firm in my constituency is now considering closing down its operation and re-establishing itself in another area which has special development area status, where the grants and facilities for the industry concerned continue. That means a further nail in the partially constructed coffin which my hon. Friend and I represent in terms of unemployment in our area.
  That is the crucial question that this debate is raising. I suggest that there is a direct correlation between the withdrawal of intermediate area status in the Bolton travel-to-work area and the level of unemployment now pertaining.
  Mrs. Taylor: I am grateful to my hon. Friend the Member for Westhoughton (Mr. Stott). I know that he shares the concern of many people in Bolton. The example that he cited illustrates the sort of problem that is already arising — and we still have some time to go before intermediate area status is withdrawn. My hon. Friend shares my concern about the number of firms in Bolton that have already gone out of business because of the recession. If the economy revives, which does not look likely at the moment, what sort of basis for expansion will we be left with in Bolton?
  686
  I accept that the availability of intermediate area status and the grants that go with it are not the be-all and end-all of attracting industry, but often they will be the extra factor that tips the balance in just the sort of case mentioned by my hon. Friend the Member for Westhoughton. A few small firms have had to move premises and they have moved out of Bolton because they know that they will not get grants to expand if they remain. We are worried that some of the larger companies may move. Some may have ties with Bolton, but many will have managements outside the town. We wonder where they will expand and develop when things improve. We think that they will not come to Bolton in future, especially as we are on the edge of areas such as Wigan, where companies can get much more help. Of sourse, we shall also face competition from enterprise zones.
  Even though we have skilled workers in Bolton, good industrial relations and a good industrial record, we shall not be able to counter the financial incentives that will lure firms to other places. It is sad that when companies move to special development areas they will not be moving from the South-East, as they should, but will be attracted away from other parts of the North and areas such as Bolton. We are also worried about losing section 7 aid and EEC grants.
  When the Secretary of State made his original announcement in July last year about changes in the Government's regional policy, he said—and he repeated this at a subsequent meeting with me and my colleagues—that the areas that were due to become non-assisted areas would be subject to special reviews before descheduling took final effect. I hope that the Minister of State will confirm that and will acknowledge that Bolton has a good case for retaining intermediate area status. Unemployment in the town is now more than double what it was when intermediate area status was granted.
  I hope that the Minister will recognise the dramatic changes in unemployment in Bolton that have occurred in the past year and that the situation in Bolton has got relatively worse compared with that in many other areas. I hope that he will agree to look again at the decision that has been taken and will tell us something about the special review that the Secretary of State promised. I hope that he will also give us information about the criteria on which Bolton was taken out of the intermediate areas and will say that he does not have a closed mind but will be able to offer some hope to industry and workers in Bolton so that they will not have to suffer the same concerns, worries and rising unemployment as have dogged them for the past 12 months.
  12.9 am
  Mr. David Young: My hon. Friend the Member for Bolton, West (Mrs. Taylor) has outlined succinctly the main case that we are putting to the Minister but any case for the giving back of status to Bolton must, of course, be assessed against the present position.
  By every criterion, the position has deteriorated. We have double the number of unemployed of a year ago, double the number of unemployed school leavers and double the number of young unemployed. By every criterion, there has been a vast increase in unemployment.
  I know that the Government have introduced certain measures during the past week. They will be cosmetic unless there exists an industrial base to absorb them. Our case is that over the last year the industrial base of Bolton has been pulverised. There have been closures in textiles,

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  leather, engineering, electronics, vehicles, rubber, plastics, clothing, paper, printing and food. We survived through previous recessions because we had diversified. That diversified base is now being eroded. Firms are closing daily. Redundancies are being declared daily. The CBI was growling about this very point at its conference, albeit that in the last resort the growl came from rather toothless jaws.
  We must have this base. I must refer to the young unemployed. It is no good paying out money for schemes unless at the end of the day jobs are provided by industry. Those jobs are not available at the moment. The longer that young people and others are unemployed, the more unemployable they become. There is a strong case for reassessing the position of Bolton because of the situation in which we find ourselves.
  I did not agree with the Government's decision when the status was originally withdrawn. I understood that their argument was that money should be put where it could do most good. The situation has changed nationally. There is a strong case for Bolton's status to be restored. Because of shortage of money and incentives, companies in my constituency are scrapping schemes that would have allowed for mobility of labour. These schemes are needed if we are to take off when a boom comes.
  Unless it is the deliberate policy of the Government to create a wasteland in Bolton and the surrounding district, the Minister should put to the Government the need to reassess the position and restore Bolton's intermediate area status.
  12.13 am
  The Minister of State, Department of Industry (Mr. Adam Butler): It is a measure of the importance that the two hon. Members who represent Bolton, supported by two of their hon. Friends, attach to this subject that five people, as opposed to the more usual number of two, should be involved in the debate. I congratulate particularly the hon. Member for Bolton, West (Mrs. Taylor) on the reasoned manner in which she has presented her case, supported with considerable feeling by her two hon. Friends.
  I do not believe that I shall be able to help directly in responding to the particular request that the hon. Lady has made. We in the Department understand very well the kind of problems that are occurring in Bolton. The hon. Lady and the hon. Member for Bolton, East (Mr. Young) referred to the problems of youth unemployment. If one has to single out a group of people in today's situation, it must be agreed that the young should receive special attention. That was why the massive extension of the youth opportunities programme featured so largely in the measures introduced recently by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Employment.
  I shall spend a few minutes going over the basis of the Government's regional policy, because in that policy are to be found most of the answers to the questions that have been raised.
  Successive Governments have operated varying degrees of regional policy, designed principally to regenerate industry in the areas in which traditional industries are in decline and which appear to suffer persistent problems of high unemployment. Although the hon. Lady made considerable play of the difference in the
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  percentage figures of employment today compared with 1972, the relative position of areas is one of the principal considerations.
  When the present Government came into office, we set about reviewing the position. We found that about 45 per cent. of the employed population were covered by assisted areas. The whole purpose of operating a regional policy and having assisted areas is that there should be a distinction between them and the rest of the country. To have nearly half the country covered by assisted areas seemed to us to frustrate the purpose of regional policy.
  Therefore, we decided that we should have to apply a more selective policy and — I admit — to reduce the expenditure going into the areas. The reason for the reduction in expenditure is — and I think that it is fundamental to the argument—that, whatever the special demands of assisted areas, one must bear in mind that the expenditure must be at the expense of something else, unless money is to be printed. It can come from hospitals, schools or other welfare expenditure, but it can also come at the expense of other jobs.
  Firms in the hon. Lady's constituency will be saying that we must allow more resources to be available to the private sector, that we must get our public expenditure down and that we must cut interest rates. One of the reasons why we have not been able to cut interest rates has been the level of Government expenditure. The demand for more expenditure on regional policy or for other purposes puts jobs in other companies at risk. Therefore, those who ask for special assistance must consider the impact it will have on the rest of industry.
  We believe that regional differences will not be reduced simply by subsidising industry. I am sure that no company or individual employee in the hon. Lady's constituency wants to be in the position of depending on taxpayers' charity. The prosperity of any company or area depends in the end on its ability to compete, to make products that the customer wants to buy at the right price and at the right time. That is the ultimate test.
  When we carried out our review, we decided to maintain the three-tier structure of categories of assisted areas. We decided that there should be not an abrupt change but a phasing out over a period, to reduce the 45 per cent. of the population covered by assisted area status to 25 per cent., to make it more effective and more selective. We also decided to take other policy steps, with which the hon. Lady and her hon. Friends will be familiar.
  Mrs. Ann Taylor: The Minister said that his Department was conducting a review, and he referred to the original announcement of the change of policy. His Government made the decision two months after being elected. It was impossible for them fully to review the position in so short a time. I presume that that is one of the reasons why the Secretary of State said that before the plans for removal of assisted area status were finalised there would be a further review. Will the hon. Gentleman say something about that further review?
  Mr. Butler: Yes, I shall, because the hon. Lady put special emphasis upon it. It is correct that my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State said not that there would be a continuous review of all areas but that he would consider cases that were presented to him. He said that he would, to use the hon Lady's words, keep an open mind and, if certain areas seemed to justify a change of the policy he had announced, that he would be prepared to reconsider.

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  There have been a number of representations to the Department both of the sort we have heard tonight and directly from a number of areas. It was inevitable that when unemployment increased at the rate we have witnessed certain areas would ask to be reconsidered. I have listened carefully to the hon. Lady. I have considered the position in Bolton and its travel-to-work area. I cannot, I regret, find that the relative position of Bolton has changed so as to justify an alteration in the decision taken last summer.
  That brings me to the argument that if regional policy is to mean anything it must be more selective. The hon. Lady will agree, knowing Bolton as she does, that while unemployment there has risen severely, the position in other places such as Liverpool, which has an unemployment rate of 15 per cent. or more, justifies their receiving more aid than the other parts of the country. I hope that the hon. Lady will accept that the Government have a responsibility to other sectors of the economy and that if we respond to the requests for the sort of aid that she has been making it will have be at the expense possibly of firms in her area.
  We are trying to provide general help, first in regard to the severe social problems that emanate from unemployment. In spite of stringencies in other directions, we have decided on a range of measures to help in this area. I am glad to be able to put special emphasis on the youth opportunities programme. We have also been able to relax to some extent the interest rates that have borne so heavily on the firms in the hon. Lady's area.
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  The textile industry has dominated Bolton over the years and it still plays an important part in the life of the area. We have taken action to ensure that the multi-fibre arrangement operates to the best advantage. We shall work towards a successor to that arrangement that is just as tough. We are, therefore, trying to help that industry.
  In addition, the metropolitan borough of Bolton is designated as a programme authority under the Inner Urban Areas Act 1978. It has special powers to assist industry. There is also the problem of land dereliction, and in that respect, although the assisted area status will be lost, Bolton and other parts of the North-West will retain eligibility for 100 per cent, grants for approved schemes of land reclamation. There is a particular development where that approach seems to be appropriate. One will look to Bolton to provide an added attraction to industry in consequence of the land reclamation that is happening and will continue to take place with the help of Government grants.
  Mr. Stott: I have some sympathy with the Minister, because during my time it was recognised at the Department of Industry that there was a problem about the way in which money was spent on industrial grants and about designating areas for special development or intermediate area status. However, in the current climate the Government have exported our unemployment—
  The question having been proposed after Ten o'clock and the debate having continued for half an hour, MR. DEPUTY SPEAKER adjourned the House without Question put, pursuant to the Standing Order.
  Adjourned at twenty-six minutes past Twelve o'clock.