§ Mr. Peter BottomleyTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what assessment he has made of the statistical significance of the fluctuations in death totals in the past three years measured over the previous 52 weeks published in ONS (99) 224. [89648]
§ Ms HewittThe information requested falls within the responsibility of the Director of the Office for National Statistics. I have asked him to reply.
Letter from Tim Holt to Mr. Peter Bottomley, dated 5 July 1999:
As Director of the Office for National Statistics (ONS), I have been asked to reply to your recent parliamentary question asking what assessment has been made of the statistical significance of the fluctuations in death registration totals in the past three years measured over the previous 52 weeks published in News Release ONS (99) 224.Fluctuations in annual death totals are primarily related to mortality in the winter months. Deaths from all causes increase during the winter but the magnitude of this increase varies considerably from year to year, depending on, for example, temperature and the incidence of influenza.There was a sharp peak in mortality in the 1996/7 winter. This was described and statistically analysed in the ONS publication, Population Trends No. 90, Winter 1997–Mortality during the 1996/7 Winter, a copy of which is available in the House of Commons library.In the first part of January 1999 there was a higher than expected winter influenza activity. Such activity is known to lead to an increase in respiratory disease deaths generally, not just influenza deaths. This is reflected in the date presented in News Release ONS (99) 224.The increase in winter mortality for 1997/8 was less pronounced than for the winters before and after.